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ZazuPIT
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Re: OAG Changes 12/29/2019: UA Adds DEN-DDC,ORD-DEC, Drops IAH-CAE/DAY

Sun Dec 29, 2019 9:56 pm

jph7291 wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
Why is a 6-7am departure not "that great"?


Simple, most people enjoy sleep. Fewer humans 'want' to wake up at 3:30am for a 6:30am flight versus waking up at 6am for a 9am flight. If they are in that much of a time crunch to arrive at their destination early, many travelers would rather just go the night before.

There is a reason airports are quieter early in the morning. Fewer people.


I go through security at BNA "early" as you call it, 06:30. - 07:00 quite often. It can be insanely busy. Lot's of people cannot afford the expense or time of flying into a destination the night before.
 
jplatts
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Re: OAG Changes 12/29/2019: UA Adds DEN-DDC,ORD-DEC, Drops IAH-CAE/DAY

Sun Dec 29, 2019 10:21 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
Airports are not quieter early in the morning, especially not at non-hub airports. They get empty at 9-11AM when all the morning flights have left, 6-7am is the busiest time for DAY and most non-hub airports.

Not sure how often you travel for business, but a 9am flight is not business friendly at all. DAY-IAH is a nearly 3 hour flight and accounting for the time zone change that gets you to Houston at 11:30 ish generously, and considering IAH is a hub, connecting passengers would be getting to their final destination much later.

That's fine for leisure travelers, but not for a majority of passengers who are traveling during the work week


SAT is a major market without nonstop service out of DAY, CVG, CMH, or IND that some passengers were connecting to from DAY through IAH on UA, and passengers have to connect to get to SAT from Greater Dayton anyway. UA will still offer 1-stop connecting service to SAT from DAY through ORD once it discontinues DAY-IAH nonstop service, and there are also other 1-stop connecting options to SAT from DAY on AA (through ORD and DFW) and DL (through ATL and DTW).

Travelers in the DAY market also have nonstop options to Houston from CVG and CMH on airlines other than UA, including CVG-IAH on DL and CMH-HOU on WN. There might also be some leakage onto the DL CVG-IAH and WN CMH-HOU nonstops from portions of the DAY market (with northern Cincinnati suburbs being close enough to CVG and the Springfield, OH area being close enough to CMH).
 
durangomac
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Re: OAG Changes 12/29/2019: UA Adds DEN-DDC,ORD-DEC, Drops IAH-CAE/DAY

Sun Dec 29, 2019 11:12 pm

peak86 wrote:
SUNCTRY738 wrote:
tphuang wrote:

Delta is fighting too many battles. If it wants to sustain growth at sea, it needs to go fully into pdx and probably the state of Alaska also. Without that, as can continue to shift capacity to sea and keep it's gates. As long as Portland and Alaska make money, it will be able to pick all it's eggs in Seattle. But of course, delta also doesn't want to do that. It wants to also picks fights at lax, Bos and now Mia.


Here we go again--the sky is falling in SEA for lost DL. So tired of these inaccurate postings.

DL is performing phenomenally financially. They are targeting the markets where they see logical future growth. And they do not need to outgrow AS at SEA. SEA is really all AS has, its main hub. AS has no choice but to try and defend it and add nonstop service to markets it can't really serve any other way due to its limited regional network.


DL as a whole is performing phenomenally financially - you can pretty much guarantee that a number of routes out of SEA and BOS though aren't, as they battle with AS/B6. SEA might be growing phenomenally as a city, but growth by AS does hurts DL. When your choice was AS or DL 1x daily, obviously it's more of an even battle - but when AS offers 2x daily or higher and DL is 1x or not even non-stop, AS starts to win out...especially with their FF base.

DL's only option is to continue to add more service (and presumably, get less profitable) or halt the growth. All this is saying, it's by no means "gloom and doom" in SEA for DL, but it certainly looks to be getting a lot tougher for them to continue growing it.



From the sources I have, DL as a whole is barely profitable (could say break even really) in SEA but most of the routes are loosing money. Only a couple domestically (ie.. hub to hub) routes are making a profit and only a couple international routes. Couple of the international markets must be a gold mine to sustain a profit for the hub as a whole. My sources state that every route where they fly the same route AS does is loosing money except for like ATL-SEA . I don't have exact numbers but I trust the sources.
 
joeblow10
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Re: OAG Changes 12/29/2019: UA Adds DEN-DDC,ORD-DEC, Drops IAH-CAE/DAY

Sun Dec 29, 2019 11:34 pm

durangomac wrote:
peak86 wrote:
SUNCTRY738 wrote:

Here we go again--the sky is falling in SEA for lost DL. So tired of these inaccurate postings.

DL is performing phenomenally financially. They are targeting the markets where they see logical future growth. And they do not need to outgrow AS at SEA. SEA is really all AS has, its main hub. AS has no choice but to try and defend it and add nonstop service to markets it can't really serve any other way due to its limited regional network.


DL as a whole is performing phenomenally financially - you can pretty much guarantee that a number of routes out of SEA and BOS though aren't, as they battle with AS/B6. SEA might be growing phenomenally as a city, but growth by AS does hurts DL. When your choice was AS or DL 1x daily, obviously it's more of an even battle - but when AS offers 2x daily or higher and DL is 1x or not even non-stop, AS starts to win out...especially with their FF base.

DL's only option is to continue to add more service (and presumably, get less profitable) or halt the growth. All this is saying, it's by no means "gloom and doom" in SEA for DL, but it certainly looks to be getting a lot tougher for them to continue growing it.



From the sources I have, DL as a whole is barely profitable (could say break even really) in SEA but most of the routes are loosing money. Only a couple domestically (ie.. hub to hub) routes are making a profit and only a couple international routes. Couple of the international markets must be a gold mine to sustain a profit for the hub as a whole. My sources state that every route where they fly the same route AS does is loosing money except for like ATL-SEA . I don't have exact numbers but I trust the sources.


I’ve heard similar - actually from AS... they must think they’ve got DL on their heels in SEA. As I said - I can’t imagine a SEA where DL just abandons everything they’ve added, but it certainly will be interesting to see what it looks like in 5 years
 
YYZORD
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Re: OAG Changes 12/29/2019: UA Adds DEN-DDC,ORD-DEC, Drops IAH-CAE/DAY

Sun Dec 29, 2019 11:40 pm

Scarebus34 wrote:
jakeroberts212 wrote:
CX HKG-SEA SEP 1.0>0.7[1.0]

DL struggled to run SEA-HKG daily and now apparently CX can’t maintain daily either. I don’t see SQ or CX lasting long in SEA.

SQ doesn’t fly to HKG - so I don’t see the correlation. Singapore will do fine.


CX does very well in YVR so I expect that if they do cut SEA, they'll still serve SEA thru YVR.
 
hiflyeras
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Re: OAG Changes 12/29/2019: UA Adds DEN-DDC,ORD-DEC, Drops IAH-CAE/DAY

Sun Dec 29, 2019 11:52 pm

jph7291 wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
Why is a 6-7am departure not "that great"?


Simple, most people enjoy sleep. Fewer humans 'want' to wake up at 3:30am for a 6:30am flight versus waking up at 6am for a 9am flight. If they are in that much of a time crunch to arrive at their destination early, many travelers would rather just go the night before.

There is a reason airports are quieter early in the morning. Fewer people.


I don’t know what airport you fly out of but, on the West Coast of the US, airports start getting busy at 4am and are packed by 5am. Business people want the first flight out to XYZ. That flight years ago likely left at 630-7am but those days are gone. Today that first departure leaves at 530am-6am or even earlier.
 
AirFiero
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Re: OAG Changes 12/29/2019: UA Adds DEN-DDC,ORD-DEC, Drops IAH-CAE/DAY

Sun Dec 29, 2019 11:57 pm

Scarebus34 wrote:
AirFiero wrote:
UA IAH-SJC MAR 1.6>1.0[1.6]


I am surprised that this route only needs one flight per day, especially heading into summer

As has been repeated many times, they are short aircraft having to extend the MAx cuts. Something has to get cut and with the frequency to SFO this was simply low hanging fruit.


Understood and agreed, but this route has been bouncing between 1x and 2x for years.
 
Chuska
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Re: OAG Changes 12/29/2019: UA Adds DEN-DDC,ORD-DEC, Drops IAH-CAE/DAY

Sun Dec 29, 2019 11:57 pm

Ozark actually upgraded DEC to DC-9's back in 1981/1982 on a STL-DEC-CMI-ORD route. Jet service returns almost 40 years later.
 
AirFiero
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Re: OAG Changes 12/29/2019: UA Adds DEN-DDC,ORD-DEC, Drops IAH-CAE/DAY

Sun Dec 29, 2019 11:59 pm

jplatts wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
Growth at SEA has stalled and will continue to stall in 2020 according to DL.

What would going fully into PDX entail exactly? Going fully into PDX/Alaska sounds quite reckless from DL's Point of View, they have more pressing things to do in SEA itself let alone the rest of their network.


DL going fully into PDX would entail (a) DL re-adding PDX-CVG nonstop service, (b) DL adding PDX-BOS, PDX-CDG, PDX-RDU, and PDX-ICN nonstop service, and (c) DL adding some point-to-point nonstop routes out of PDX to destinations other than DL hubs, DL focus cities, and SkyTeam partner hubs.

WN's domestic operation at PDX is also bigger than that of AA, DL, or UA, both by total number of domestic passengers and by number of domestic destinations served nonstop from PDX.

DL also currently operates a few nonstop routes out of PDX that do not currently have nonstop competition such as PDX-ATL, PDX-DTW, and PDX-NRT. AS used to serve both ATL and DTW nonstop from PDX, but dropped both PDX-ATL and PDX-DTW nonstop service.

Midwestindy wrote:
AirFiero wrote:
I am surprised that this route only needs one flight per day, especially heading into summer


IAH-SFO is 9-10x daily with wide-bodies sprinkled in, and SJC-DEN can handle most of the West-->East connecting flows. UA's SJC presence is quite weak because of SFO, they don't even serve LAX from SJC


WN now serves HOU nonstop from SJC in addition to UA. UA can likely get by with 1 daily nonstop to IAH from SJC due to the WN SJC-HOU and UA SFO-IAH nonstop flights.


Ah, this is also a very good point, one that I’d forgotten.
 
LAXdude1023
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Re: OAG Changes 12/29/2019: UA Adds DEN-DDC,ORD-DEC, Drops IAH-CAE/DAY

Mon Dec 30, 2019 12:39 am

AirFiero wrote:
Scarebus34 wrote:
AirFiero wrote:

I am surprised that this route only needs one flight per day, especially heading into summer

As has been repeated many times, they are short aircraft having to extend the MAx cuts. Something has to get cut and with the frequency to SFO this was simply low hanging fruit.


Understood and agreed, but this route has been bouncing between 1x and 2x for years.


This one probably could be placed on Max cuts.
FOR THE LOVE OF GOD BRING BACK THE PAYWALL!!!!
 
BA
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Re: OAG Changes 12/29/2019: UA Adds DEN-DDC,ORD-DEC, Drops IAH-CAE/DAY

Mon Dec 30, 2019 12:40 am

CX launched HKG-SEA at 4x weekly before ramping it up to daily due to stronger than expected demand.

It's now 4x/5x weekly depending on the week. Considering the ongoing political situation in Hong Kong, I'm not surprised to see reductions. Plenty of CX routes have seen reductions.

And HKG-SEA will still be daily in the summer, just not daily into September like it was this year.

YYZORD wrote:
Scarebus34 wrote:
jakeroberts212 wrote:
CX HKG-SEA SEP 1.0>0.7[1.0]

DL struggled to run SEA-HKG daily and now apparently CX can’t maintain daily either. I don’t see SQ or CX lasting long in SEA.

SQ doesn’t fly to HKG - so I don’t see the correlation. Singapore will do fine.


CX does very well in YVR so I expect that if they do cut SEA, they'll still serve SEA thru YVR.


That's like saying EK and SQ serve YVR through SEA...

They may be geographically close, but they're distinct markets separated by an international border that has become far less open than it used to be.

That's not to say there aren't cross border flyers between the two, there are, but it's not that many, and not something that airlines can market in a practical manner.
"Generosity is giving more than you can, and pride is taking less than you need." - Khalil Gibran
 
jplatts
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Re: OAG Changes 12/29/2019: UA Adds DEN-DDC,ORD-DEC, Drops IAH-CAE/DAY

Mon Dec 30, 2019 12:51 am

durangomac wrote:
From the sources I have, DL as a whole is barely profitable (could say break even really) in SEA but most of the routes are loosing money. Only a couple domestically (ie.. hub to hub) routes are making a profit and only a couple international routes. Couple of the international markets must be a gold mine to sustain a profit for the hub as a whole. My sources state that every route where they fly the same route AS does is loosing money except for like ATL-SEA . I don't have exact numbers but I trust the sources.


DL is currently the only airline serving CVG nonstop from SEA, but DL was operating the SEA-CVG nonstop route prior to DL having a hub at SEA due to CVG being a former DL hub (and current DL focus city).

Is SEA-CVG a profitable route for DL, or is DL losing money on the SEA-CVG nonstop route?
 
jakeroberts212
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Re: OAG Changes 12/29/2019: UA Adds DEN-DDC,ORD-DEC, Drops IAH-CAE/DAY

Mon Dec 30, 2019 1:01 am

BA wrote:
jakeroberts212 wrote:
CX HKG-SEA SEP 1.0>0.7[1.0]

DL struggled to run SEA-HKG daily and now apparently CX can’t maintain daily either. I don’t see SQ or CX lasting long in SEA.


SQ doesn't operate HKG-SEA. They operate SIN-SEA, which they are increasing capacity on:

https://www.routesonline.com/news/38/ai ... f-17dec19/


Please show me where in my post I said SQ operates HKG-SEA. Or are you just not good at reading comprehension?
 
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enilria
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Re: OAG Changes 12/29/2019: UA Adds DEN-DDC,ORD-DEC, Drops IAH-CAE/DAY

Mon Dec 30, 2019 1:08 am

Chugach wrote:
enilria wrote:
tphuang wrote:

Delta is fighting too many battles. If it wants to sustain growth at sea, it needs to go fully into pdx and probably the state of Alaska also. Without that, as can continue to shift capacity to sea and keep it's gates. As long as Portland and Alaska make money, it will be able to pick all it's eggs in Seattle. But of course, delta also doesn't want to do that. It wants to also picks fights at lax, Bos and now Mia.

I agree that Delta needed to make Alaska work to defeat AS and they haven’t accomplished much in Alaska. I think it’s telling that Delta said 2020 growth would be in its core hubs. I doubt that was their preferred plan.


Regarding Delta’s AK service, about the only thing they are really missing is JNU year round, and that’s a question of whether they want to equip right-sized aircraft for the JNU approaches in the winter. So far they haven’t appeared to want to do that (somebody can correct me if I’m wrong but I believe right now they only have the 738 certified for proprietary JNU RNAV approaches). SIT and KTN are easy seasonal flights to appease their FF base in Seattle, and stick a finger in AS’ eye at the same time. Beyond that there’s not much else for them to chase after in AK that makes sense from SEA, aside from the obvious ANC and FAI (which they already do).

That's not exactly what I meant. You can't make Alaska work without appealing to the local residents. To build up that kind of loyalty they need to fly the FAI-ANC-JNU-SEA milk run probably 2x yearround in order to hope to build up point of sale loyalty in Alaska. If they do that then they can use that to help win SEA. Because they don't have that they get their butt handed to them on SEA-AK routes as they are only carrying SEA point of sale and price sensitive traffic. This means they can't manage yearround or decent frequency in most markets. If they had made more of an effort in Alaska it would have bolstered their SEA results.

Having said all of that, they are not going to give up in SEA, they just aren't achieving what I think they expected. I do think it is probably slightly profitable, but I think the way that happens is that SEA-DL Hub routes now make huge bucks thanks to gaining some SEA point of sale and the SEA-spoke markets in the West suck. This is why we see them adding routes like BOI-ATL in order to build their point of sale strength in markets like BOi in order to bolster SEA. I think they need the same strategy in Alaska. SEA-Asia likely sucks and SEA-Midwest is probably decent.
 
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enilria
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Re: OAG Changes 12/29/2019: UA Adds DEN-DDC,ORD-DEC, Drops IAH-CAE/DAY

Mon Dec 30, 2019 1:14 am

jplatts wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
Growth at SEA has stalled and will continue to stall in 2020 according to DL.

What would going fully into PDX entail exactly? Going fully into PDX/Alaska sounds quite reckless from DL's Point of View, they have more pressing things to do in SEA itself let alone the rest of their network.


DL going fully into PDX would entail (a) DL re-adding PDX-CVG nonstop service, (b) DL adding PDX-BOS, PDX-CDG, PDX-RDU, and PDX-ICN nonstop service, and (c) DL adding some point-to-point nonstop routes out of PDX to destinations other than DL hubs, DL focus cities, and SkyTeam partner hubs.

WN's domestic operation at PDX is also bigger than that of AA, DL, or UA, both by total number of domestic passengers and by number of domestic destinations served nonstop from PDX.

DL also currently operates a few nonstop routes out of PDX that do not currently have nonstop competition such as PDX-ATL, PDX-DTW, and PDX-NRT. AS used to serve both ATL and DTW nonstop from PDX, but dropped both PDX-ATL and PDX-DTW nonstop service.

Midwestindy wrote:
AirFiero wrote:
I am surprised that this route only needs one flight per day, especially heading into summer


IAH-SFO is 9-10x daily with wide-bodies sprinkled in, and SJC-DEN can handle most of the West-->East connecting flows. UA's SJC presence is quite weak because of SFO, they don't even serve LAX from SJC


WN now serves HOU nonstop from SJC in addition to UA. UA can likely get by with 1 daily nonstop to IAH from SJC due to the WN SJC-HOU and UA SFO-IAH nonstop flights.

Delta's "four corners strategy" is all about changing Delta from having hubs/focus points in the middle of the country at less key locations to prime coastal hubs. PDX is not a prime coastal hub. Ain't happening.

durangomac wrote:
peak86 wrote:
SUNCTRY738 wrote:

Here we go again--the sky is falling in SEA for lost DL. So tired of these inaccurate postings.

DL is performing phenomenally financially. They are targeting the markets where they see logical future growth. And they do not need to outgrow AS at SEA. SEA is really all AS has, its main hub. AS has no choice but to try and defend it and add nonstop service to markets it can't really serve any other way due to its limited regional network.


DL as a whole is performing phenomenally financially - you can pretty much guarantee that a number of routes out of SEA and BOS though aren't, as they battle with AS/B6. SEA might be growing phenomenally as a city, but growth by AS does hurts DL. When your choice was AS or DL 1x daily, obviously it's more of an even battle - but when AS offers 2x daily or higher and DL is 1x or not even non-stop, AS starts to win out...especially with their FF base.

DL's only option is to continue to add more service (and presumably, get less profitable) or halt the growth. All this is saying, it's by no means "gloom and doom" in SEA for DL, but it certainly looks to be getting a lot tougher for them to continue growing it.



From the sources I have, DL as a whole is barely profitable (could say break even really) in SEA but most of the routes are loosing money. Only a couple domestically (ie.. hub to hub) routes are making a profit and only a couple international routes. Couple of the international markets must be a gold mine to sustain a profit for the hub as a whole. My sources state that every route where they fly the same route AS does is loosing money except for like ATL-SEA . I don't have exact numbers but I trust the sources.

This is essentially what their DOT filed data shows. Hub to hub from SEA is dripping gold. SEA-Europe is decent. SEA-Asia is disastrous. SEA-Midwest/East is barely profitable. SEA-West except LAX is different shades of bad. If people don't believe that then Delta isn't filing accurate DB1B and T100.
 
Cubsrule
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Re: OAG Changes 12/29/2019: UA Adds DEN-DDC,ORD-DEC, Drops IAH-CAE/DAY

Mon Dec 30, 2019 1:39 am

hiflyeras wrote:
jph7291 wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
Why is a 6-7am departure not "that great"?


Simple, most people enjoy sleep. Fewer humans 'want' to wake up at 3:30am for a 6:30am flight versus waking up at 6am for a 9am flight. If they are in that much of a time crunch to arrive at their destination early, many travelers would rather just go the night before.

There is a reason airports are quieter early in the morning. Fewer people.


I don’t know what airport you fly out of but, on the West Coast of the US, airports start getting busy at 4am and are packed by 5am. Business people want the first flight out to XYZ. That flight years ago likely left at 630-7am but those days are gone. Today that first departure leaves at 530am-6am or even earlier.


The first flight out has value for sure, but for a market
like DAY, that’s an ~0600 departure to ATL and/or ORD, which can get you to essentially the entire continental US by lunchtime local.
I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
 
TTailedTiger
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Re: OAG Changes 12/29/2019: UA Adds DEN-DDC,ORD-DEC, Drops IAH-CAE/DAY

Mon Dec 30, 2019 1:43 am

The IAH hub just seems to take one hit after another. Such a shame. Continental had a nice sized operation there.
 
CriticalPoint
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Re: OAG Changes 12/29/2019: UA Adds DEN-DDC,ORD-DEC, Drops IAH-CAE/DAY

Mon Dec 30, 2019 2:00 am

TTailedTiger wrote:
The IAH hub just seems to take one hit after another. Such a shame. Continental had a nice sized operation there.


IAH is a terrible domestic connecting hub. East west is extremely out of the way. The only thing it’s good for is north south and very south east west SAN/LAX/PHX-Florida. It is O/D and South America and it is great for central and South America.

It was massive for CO because it was all they had. Now United has DEN/ORD that works far better for ALL connections domestically.

Would you rather fly LIT - IAH to take a 4.5 hour flight to SEA? No one would and that is why IAH is not what it was.
 
SUNCTRY738
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Re: OAG Changes 12/29/2019: UA Adds DEN-DDC,ORD-DEC, Drops IAH-CAE/DAY

Mon Dec 30, 2019 2:01 am

durangomac wrote:
peak86 wrote:
SUNCTRY738 wrote:

Here we go again--the sky is falling in SEA for lost DL. So tired of these inaccurate postings.

DL is performing phenomenally financially. They are targeting the markets where they see logical future growth. And they do not need to outgrow AS at SEA. SEA is really all AS has, its main hub. AS has no choice but to try and defend it and add nonstop service to markets it can't really serve any other way due to its limited regional network.


DL as a whole is performing phenomenally financially - you can pretty much guarantee that a number of routes out of SEA and BOS though aren't, as they battle with AS/B6. SEA might be growing phenomenally as a city, but growth by AS does hurts DL. When your choice was AS or DL 1x daily, obviously it's more of an even battle - but when AS offers 2x daily or higher and DL is 1x or not even non-stop, AS starts to win out...especially with their FF base.

DL's only option is to continue to add more service (and presumably, get less profitable) or halt the growth. All this is saying, it's by no means "gloom and doom" in SEA for DL, but it certainly looks to be getting a lot tougher for them to continue growing it.



From the sources I have, DL as a whole is barely profitable (could say break even really) in SEA but most of the routes are loosing money. Only a couple domestically (ie.. hub to hub) routes are making a profit and only a couple international routes. Couple of the international markets must be a gold mine to sustain a profit for the hub as a whole. My sources state that every route where they fly the same route AS does is loosing money except for like ATL-SEA . I don't have exact numbers but I trust the sources.


Safe to say you meant "losing" and not "loosing", right? I have a hard time believing mystery sources although I am sure DL is losing money on some competitive routes out of SEA. I am also sure AS is and obviously has lost money on competing routes, both at SEA and at SLC and other places. But both airlines are making very impressive profits and both are doing well.

DL does not have to "win" SEA to be a financial success. AS is another story---without SEA there isn't much left.
 
Chugach
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Re: OAG Changes 12/29/2019: UA Adds DEN-DDC,ORD-DEC, Drops IAH-CAE/DAY

Mon Dec 30, 2019 2:09 am

enilria wrote:
Chugach wrote:
enilria wrote:
I agree that Delta needed to make Alaska work to defeat AS and they haven’t accomplished much in Alaska. I think it’s telling that Delta said 2020 growth would be in its core hubs. I doubt that was their preferred plan.


Regarding Delta’s AK service, about the only thing they are really missing is JNU year round, and that’s a question of whether they want to equip right-sized aircraft for the JNU approaches in the winter. So far they haven’t appeared to want to do that (somebody can correct me if I’m wrong but I believe right now they only have the 738 certified for proprietary JNU RNAV approaches). SIT and KTN are easy seasonal flights to appease their FF base in Seattle, and stick a finger in AS’ eye at the same time. Beyond that there’s not much else for them to chase after in AK that makes sense from SEA, aside from the obvious ANC and FAI (which they already do).

That's not exactly what I meant. You can't make Alaska work without appealing to the local residents. To build up that kind of loyalty they need to fly the FAI-ANC-JNU-SEA milk run probably 2x yearround in order to hope to build up point of sale loyalty in Alaska. If they do that then they can use that to help win SEA. Because they don't have that they get their butt handed to them on SEA-AK routes as they are only carrying SEA point of sale and price sensitive traffic. This means they can't manage yearround or decent frequency in most markets. If they had made more of an effort in Alaska it would have bolstered their SEA results.

Having said all of that, they are not going to give up in SEA, they just aren't achieving what I think they expected. I do think it is probably slightly profitable, but I think the way that happens is that SEA-DL Hub routes now make huge bucks thanks to gaining some SEA point of sale and the SEA-spoke markets in the West suck. This is why we see them adding routes like BOI-ATL in order to build their point of sale strength in markets like BOi in order to bolster SEA. I think they need the same strategy in Alaska. SEA-Asia likely sucks and SEA-Midwest is probably decent.


I don’t disagree. Back in the day they flew ANC-FAI and JNU-FAI. They would need a similar strategy to appeal to AK point of sale...at the very least do ANC-FAI again.
 
slcdeltarumd11
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Re: OAG Changes 12/29/2019: UA Adds DEN-DDC,ORD-DEC, Drops IAH-CAE/DAY

Mon Dec 30, 2019 2:20 am

I could be wrong but does seem like DAY management made any bad decisions does it? Looks like things changed around them and then the airport is a reflection of the area itself , fallen on hard times compared to the glory days. Not sure the airport could have done anything differently could they?
 
tphuang
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Re: OAG Changes 12/29/2019: UA Adds DEN-DDC,ORD-DEC, Drops IAH-CAE/DAY

Mon Dec 30, 2019 2:26 am

joeblow10 wrote:
durangomac wrote:
peak86 wrote:

DL as a whole is performing phenomenally financially - you can pretty much guarantee that a number of routes out of SEA and BOS though aren't, as they battle with AS/B6. SEA might be growing phenomenally as a city, but growth by AS does hurts DL. When your choice was AS or DL 1x daily, obviously it's more of an even battle - but when AS offers 2x daily or higher and DL is 1x or not even non-stop, AS starts to win out...especially with their FF base.

DL's only option is to continue to add more service (and presumably, get less profitable) or halt the growth. All this is saying, it's by no means "gloom and doom" in SEA for DL, but it certainly looks to be getting a lot tougher for them to continue growing it.



From the sources I have, DL as a whole is barely profitable (could say break even really) in SEA but most of the routes are loosing money. Only a couple domestically (ie.. hub to hub) routes are making a profit and only a couple international routes. Couple of the international markets must be a gold mine to sustain a profit for the hub as a whole. My sources state that every route where they fly the same route AS does is loosing money except for like ATL-SEA . I don't have exact numbers but I trust the sources.


I’ve heard similar - actually from AS... they must think they’ve got DL on their heels in SEA. As I said - I can’t imagine a SEA where DL just abandons everything they’ve added, but it certainly will be interesting to see what it looks like in 5 years


Just looking at the DOT data, that's pretty obvious to anyone that has looked at it carefully. These recent adds by AS in the the summer at SEA are not great for margins. That's a lot of additional capacity. But they do 2 things:
1) make things even worse margin wise for DL at SEA
2) prevent DL from getting more gates since gates are allocated based on seats.

DL makes money on more than just ATL. Clearly DTW, MSP, SLC all make money. JFK used to make pretty good money. Not sure if that's still the case after mint entered. There are a few other routes that are making money but probably below system average in margins. A lot of their routes make money in summer time, but not necessarily full year.

TATL stuff do well. TPAC is a clear disaster and now they are shifting from PEK to PKX. Canadian stuff is going to a struggle until WS JV get approved.

And in the past couple of years, they've decided to pick up new projects in BOS, MIA and "focus cities". And guess what, BOS is in an even earlier stage in hub development, so do even worse margin wise.

The greatest thing that has masked this for DL in the past 2 years is how much more profitable NYC has gotten for them.

If AS thinks it has DL on the ropes at Seattle, then what it's doing right now is the absolute correct strategy. DL's only hope to turning things around is getting a lot more gates through higher utilization and upgauging.

enilria wrote:
I agree that Delta needed to make Alaska work to defeat AS and they haven’t accomplished much in Alaska. I think it’s telling that Delta said 2020 growth would be in its core hubs. I doubt that was their preferred plan.


Do you think that's due to UA growth in the middle of the country. UA growing DEN hurts DL at SLC a lot. UA growing ORD hurts DTW/MSP a little bit. Even when UA grows IAD, it hurts ATL marginally. AA growing CLT/DFW hurts ATL marginally. All this great DL strategy is banking on the continued production of its core hubs. At some point, UA/AA finally building up their strongest hubs to where they need to be is going to affect DL's core hubs.

And funny thing is they also said 200 flights at BOS in 12 to 18 months at the Q2 earnings call (so sometimes in 2020). That's clearly not going to happen.

enilria wrote:
This is essentially what their DOT filed data shows. Hub to hub from SEA is dripping gold. SEA-Europe is decent. SEA-Asia is disastrous. SEA-Midwest/East is barely profitable. SEA-West except LAX is different shades of bad. If people don't believe that then Delta isn't filing accurate DB1B and T100.

100% on the mark.

Midwestindy wrote:

Growth at SEA has stalled and will continue to stall in 2020 according to DL.

What would going fully into PDX entail exactly? Going fully into PDX/Alaska sounds quite reckless from DL's Point of View, they have more pressing things to do in SEA itself let alone the rest of their network.

Do you think what they are doing right now in SEA is sustainable in a downturn that affects midwest or southeast? If not, then all their efforts in SEA was in futile.
 
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Re: OAG Changes 12/29/2019: UA Adds DEN-DDC,ORD-DEC, Drops IAH-CAE/DAY

Mon Dec 30, 2019 2:38 am

jph7291 wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
Why is a 6-7am departure not "that great"?


Simple, most people enjoy sleep. Fewer humans 'want' to wake up at 3:30am for a 6:30am flight versus waking up at 6am for a 9am flight. If they are in that much of a time crunch to arrive at their destination early, many travelers would rather just go the night before.

There is a reason airports are quieter early in the morning. Fewer people.

That is one of the busiest times for most airports. Also, many people don't have to wake up at 3:30 for a 6:30 flight.
 
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Re: OAG Changes 12/29/2019: UA Adds DEN-DDC,ORD-DEC, Drops IAH-CAE/DAY

Mon Dec 30, 2019 3:17 am

Ishrion wrote:
Scarebus34 wrote:
Ishrion wrote:
Sounds like a good time for AA to add DFW-DAY :scratchchin:

They already fly that and have scaled back from mainline to all regional service.


Whoops, got it mixed up with CAK.


I get that AA already has DFW-DAY service, but what would justify DFW-CAK service when that traffic could flow via ORD or PHL?
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Re: OAG Changes 12/29/2019: UA Adds DEN-DDC,ORD-DEC, Drops IAH-CAE/DAY

Mon Dec 30, 2019 3:33 am

ctrabs0114 wrote:
Ishrion wrote:
Scarebus34 wrote:
They already fly that and have scaled back from mainline to all regional service.


Whoops, got it mixed up with CAK.


I get that AA already has DFW-DAY service, but what would justify DFW-CAK service when that traffic could flow via ORD or PHL?


It might open up connections in smaller markets in TX and West of Texas. But I agree most connections are well taken care of by ORD/CLT/PHL and to a much smaller extent DCA.


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Re: OAG Changes 12/29/2019: UA Adds DEN-DDC,ORD-DEC, Drops IAH-CAE/DAY

Mon Dec 30, 2019 3:42 am

CriticalPoint wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
The IAH hub just seems to take one hit after another. Such a shame. Continental had a nice sized operation there.


IAH is a terrible domestic connecting hub. East west is extremely out of the way. The only thing it’s good for is north south and very south east west SAN/LAX/PHX-Florida. It is O/D and South America and it is great for central and South America.

It was massive for CO because it was all they had. Now United has DEN/ORD that works far better for ALL connections domestically.

Would you rather fly LIT - IAH to take a 4.5 hour flight to SEA? No one would and that is why IAH is not what it was.


I once flew CO PHL-IAH-SEA and SEA-IAH-PHL on the way home. It was way cheaper than the nonstops to SEA from EWR. PHL-IAH was a 73G, IAH-SEA and SEA-IAH we’re both 737-800s and IAH-PHL was a 735. Great trip. The IAH-PHL flight was # 1776.

Plenty of folks on the IAH-SEA and SEA-IAH flights were connecting to Orlando.


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Re: OAG Changes 12/29/2019: UA Adds DEN-DDC,ORD-DEC, Drops IAH-CAE/DAY

Mon Dec 30, 2019 4:15 am

STT757 wrote:
Plenty of folks on the IAH-SEA and SEA-IAH flights were connecting to Orlando.


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That’s a great connection to use IAH for!
 
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Re: OAG Changes 12/29/2019: UA Adds DEN-DDC,ORD-DEC, Drops IAH-CAE/DAY

Mon Dec 30, 2019 4:19 am

DeltaRules wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
enilria wrote:
AS CMH-SEA JUN 1.0>1.4[1.0] JUL 1.0>2[1.0] AUG 1.0>1.5[1.0]


Wow, AS is not playing in SEA......


Both these flights are showing as 739s, too. The daily this summer was mainly a 320, with occasional upgauges to 321s.

[quote="TYSflyer"]

I think AS usually loads most flights as 739s and then finalizes the aircraft type in the weeks and months following. The 2nd daily SBA-SEA was loaded recently as 739 and was updated to E75 this week.

Right now AS is also trying to hold onto gates, which is determined on number of seats offered, which probably explains a lot of these additional frequencies being added to some small AS stations. Also, probably trying to keep DL from jumping on these routes that probably can't support both airlines...in CMHs case, DL serves all of its hubs (and more) except for SEA, so it would be a natural addition for them.
 
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Re: OAG Changes 12/29/2019: UA Adds DEN-DDC,ORD-DEC, Drops IAH-CAE/DAY

Mon Dec 30, 2019 4:42 am

CriticalPoint wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
The IAH hub just seems to take one hit after another. Such a shame. Continental had a nice sized operation there.


IAH is a terrible domestic connecting hub. East west is extremely out of the way. The only thing it’s good for is north south and very south east west SAN/LAX/PHX-Florida. It is O/D and South America and it is great for central and South America.

It was massive for CO because it was all they had. Now United has DEN/ORD that works far better for ALL connections domestically.

Would you rather fly LIT - IAH to take a 4.5 hour flight to SEA? No one would and that is why IAH is not what it was.


While I agree that IAH isnt the best domestic connector and that ORD and DEN are better for east/west connections, but IMO LIT isnt the best example. There are three categories of travel that IAH can cater to:

1) O&D
2) Travel two and from Central and South America
3) Domestic connections to/from cities within 600 miles of IAH.

Id also say that cities south of I-40 should be good for IAH. I do think that CAE will be back and that its an issue aircraft availability. DAY is probably gone for good.

I use 600 miles because that roughly between 1 and 1.5 hours of flight. There isnt too much backtrack that would be involved within that radius.

But yeah, as much as I wish IAH had more domestic destinations I know that DEN and ORD are better suited geographically.
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Re: OAG Changes 12/29/2019: UA Adds DEN-DDC,ORD-DEC, Drops IAH-CAE/DAY

Mon Dec 30, 2019 6:09 am

UA at IAH leaves me befuddled. They essentially ceded Texas to AA/DFW and are retreating in Mexico markets while AA expands. They’ve cut a ton of Southern markets like MGM, TLH, CHA, CAE, CRW, etc... all while the city and region continue to grow. Just spent a week on business in central Houston and there are cranes everywhere.
 
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Re: OAG Changes 12/29/2019: UA Adds DEN-DDC,ORD-DEC, Drops IAH-CAE/DAY

Mon Dec 30, 2019 1:35 pm

COflyerBOS wrote:
UA at IAH leaves me befuddled. They essentially ceded Texas to AA/DFW and are retreating in Mexico markets while AA expands. They’ve cut a ton of Southern markets like MGM, TLH, CHA, CAE, CRW, etc... all while the city and region continue to grow. Just spent a week on business in central Houston and there are cranes everywhere.


In addition to DEN and ORD being better connecting points for east-west connections, there are other factors weakening demand for UA service out of IAH, including the following:
(a) Further domestic expansion by WN at HOU following the UA-CO merger,
(b) WN adding nonstop international flights out of HOU starting in 2015,
(c) Post-Wright Amendment expansion at DAL by WN,
(d) NK entering the IAH market in 2012,
(e) F9 adding a few more nonstop routes out of IAH,
and
(f) The expansion of AA's DFW hub, including the addition of a few additional domestic nonstop routes.

WN also has some additional stations other than DEN or MDW that are better connecting points for east-west connections than HOU such as ATL, AUS, BWI, DAL, MCI, LAS, BNA, PHX, and STL.

AA also has hubs at PHX, DFW, and CLT that are better connecting points for east-west connections than UA's IAH hub.

While UA has dropped nonstop service out of IAH to some small regional destinations in the Southeast and Midwest, UA still has nonstop service out of IAH to some small regional destinations in the South, the Mountain West, and the western half of the Midwest.

There are also a few smaller markets in Texas and the Florida Panhandle such as AMA, LBB, MAF, ECP, and PNS that are still served nonstop from Houston on both UA and WN.
 
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Re: OAG Changes 12/29/2019: UA Adds DEN-DDC,ORD-DEC, Drops IAH-CAE/DAY

Mon Dec 30, 2019 1:49 pm

jplatts wrote:
COflyerBOS wrote:
UA at IAH leaves me befuddled. They essentially ceded Texas to AA/DFW and are retreating in Mexico markets while AA expands. They’ve cut a ton of Southern markets like MGM, TLH, CHA, CAE, CRW, etc... all while the city and region continue to grow. Just spent a week on business in central Houston and there are cranes everywhere.


In addition to DEN and ORD being better connecting points for east-west connections, there are other factors weakening demand for UA service out of IAH, including the following:
(a) Further domestic expansion by WN at HOU following the UA-CO merger,
(b) WN adding nonstop international flights out of HOU starting in 2015,
(c) Post-Wright Amendment expansion at DAL by WN,
(d) NK entering the IAH market in 2012,
(e) F9 adding a few more nonstop routes out of IAH,
and
(f) The expansion of AA's DFW hub, including the addition of a few additional domestic nonstop routes.

WN also has some additional stations other than DEN or MDW that are better connecting points for east-west connections than HOU such as ATL, AUS, BWI, DAL, MCI, LAS, BNA, PHX, and STL.

AA also has hubs at PHX, DFW, and CLT that are better connecting points for east-west connections than UA's IAH hub.

While UA has dropped nonstop service out of IAH to some small regional destinations in the Southeast and Midwest, UA still has nonstop service out of IAH to some small regional destinations in the South, the Mountain West, and the western half of the Midwest.

There are also a few smaller markets in Texas and the Florida Panhandle such as AMA, LBB, MAF, ECP, and PNS that are still served nonstop from Houston on both UA and WN.


WN has nothing to do with why UA has reduced destinations from IAH. UA didn’t cancel any routes where they compete with WN.
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Re: OAG Changes 12/29/2019: UA Adds DEN-DDC,ORD-DEC, Drops IAH-CAE/DAY

Mon Dec 30, 2019 2:00 pm

slcdeltarumd11 wrote:
I could be wrong but does seem like DAY management made any bad decisions does it? Looks like things changed around them and then the airport is a reflection of the area itself , fallen on hard times compared to the glory days. Not sure the airport could have done anything differently could they?

Not really. The problem for DAY is that fares at CVG have dropped dramatically. DAY went from gaining passengers leaking from CVG due to high fares to leaking passengers to CVG (and CMH) due to higher fares (at DAY) or more options at the larger airports.
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Re: OAG Changes 12/29/2019: UA Adds DEN-DDC,ORD-DEC, Drops IAH-CAE/DAY

Mon Dec 30, 2019 2:11 pm

LAXdude1023 wrote:
jplatts wrote:
COflyerBOS wrote:
UA at IAH leaves me befuddled. They essentially ceded Texas to AA/DFW and are retreating in Mexico markets while AA expands. They’ve cut a ton of Southern markets like MGM, TLH, CHA, CAE, CRW, etc... all while the city and region continue to grow. Just spent a week on business in central Houston and there are cranes everywhere.


In addition to DEN and ORD being better connecting points for east-west connections, there are other factors weakening demand for UA service out of IAH, including the following:
(a) Further domestic expansion by WN at HOU following the UA-CO merger,
(b) WN adding nonstop international flights out of HOU starting in 2015,
(c) Post-Wright Amendment expansion at DAL by WN,
(d) NK entering the IAH market in 2012,
(e) F9 adding a few more nonstop routes out of IAH,
and
(f) The expansion of AA's DFW hub, including the addition of a few additional domestic nonstop routes.

WN also has some additional stations other than DEN or MDW that are better connecting points for east-west connections than HOU such as ATL, AUS, BWI, DAL, MCI, LAS, BNA, PHX, and STL.

AA also has hubs at PHX, DFW, and CLT that are better connecting points for east-west connections than UA's IAH hub.

While UA has dropped nonstop service out of IAH to some small regional destinations in the Southeast and Midwest, UA still has nonstop service out of IAH to some small regional destinations in the South, the Mountain West, and the western half of the Midwest.

There are also a few smaller markets in Texas and the Florida Panhandle such as AMA, LBB, MAF, ECP, and PNS that are still served nonstop from Houston on both UA and WN.


WN has nothing to do with why UA has reduced destinations from IAH. UA didn’t cancel any routes where they compete with WN.


Do you mean WN in Houston? The Metroplex is a better connecting point than IAH for virtually every domestic itinerary, so I think more connections at DAL certainly hurts the Houston hubs (both of them).
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Re: OAG Changes 12/29/2019: UA Adds DEN-DDC,ORD-DEC, Drops IAH-CAE/DAY

Mon Dec 30, 2019 2:45 pm

Cubsrule wrote:
Do you mean WN in Houston? The Metroplex is a better connecting point than IAH for virtually every domestic itinerary, so I think more connections at DAL certainly hurts the Houston hubs (both of them).


I agree that the Metroplex is a better connecting point for most domestic itineraries than Houston is, and I also agree that more connections at DFW and DAL do affect both IAH and HOU. However, there are some domestic connections where HOU is a good connecting point such as connections to/from CRP and HRL in the South Texas region and connections to MSY and Florida from places west of HOU.
 
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Re: OAG Changes 12/29/2019: UA Adds DEN-DDC,ORD-DEC, Drops IAH-CAE/DAY

Mon Dec 30, 2019 3:25 pm

According to the BTS website, Bureau of Transportation Statistics, The Last Flight from Columbia (CAE) to Houston Bush (IAH) was on June 5, 2019 operated by United Express (Express Jet) Flight 4236 using ERJ N13992. Unless another regional carrier performed the route since that flight, I was unable to locate any service after that date.
 
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Re: OAG Changes 12/29/2019: UA Adds DEN-DDC,ORD-DEC, Drops IAH-CAE/DAY

Mon Dec 30, 2019 3:36 pm

Cubsrule wrote:
LAXdude1023 wrote:
jplatts wrote:

In addition to DEN and ORD being better connecting points for east-west connections, there are other factors weakening demand for UA service out of IAH, including the following:
(a) Further domestic expansion by WN at HOU following the UA-CO merger,
(b) WN adding nonstop international flights out of HOU starting in 2015,
(c) Post-Wright Amendment expansion at DAL by WN,
(d) NK entering the IAH market in 2012,
(e) F9 adding a few more nonstop routes out of IAH,
and
(f) The expansion of AA's DFW hub, including the addition of a few additional domestic nonstop routes.

WN also has some additional stations other than DEN or MDW that are better connecting points for east-west connections than HOU such as ATL, AUS, BWI, DAL, MCI, LAS, BNA, PHX, and STL.

AA also has hubs at PHX, DFW, and CLT that are better connecting points for east-west connections than UA's IAH hub.

While UA has dropped nonstop service out of IAH to some small regional destinations in the Southeast and Midwest, UA still has nonstop service out of IAH to some small regional destinations in the South, the Mountain West, and the western half of the Midwest.

There are also a few smaller markets in Texas and the Florida Panhandle such as AMA, LBB, MAF, ECP, and PNS that are still served nonstop from Houston on both UA and WN.


WN has nothing to do with why UA has reduced destinations from IAH. UA didn’t cancel any routes where they compete with WN.


Do you mean WN in Houston? The Metroplex is a better connecting point than IAH for virtually every domestic itinerary, so I think more connections at DAL certainly hurts the Houston hubs (both of them).


Of course I mean WN in HOU. I wasnt comparing Houston to DFW because Im well aware DFW is a better connecting point and much larger domestic O&D market. WN at HOU has nothing to do with these cancellations. They dont even fly to these markets from HOU.
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Re: OAG Changes 12/29/2019: UA Adds DEN-DDC,ORD-DEC, Drops IAH-CAE/DAY

Mon Dec 30, 2019 5:21 pm

ericm2031 wrote:
DeltaRules wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:

Wow, AS is not playing in SEA......


Both these flights are showing as 739s, too. The daily this summer was mainly a 320, with occasional upgauges to 321s.

TYSflyer wrote:

I think AS usually loads most flights as 739s and then finalizes the aircraft type in the weeks and months following. The 2nd daily SBA-SEA was loaded recently as 739 and was updated to E75 this week.

Right now AS is also trying to hold onto gates, which is determined on number of seats offered, which probably explains a lot of these additional frequencies being added to some small AS stations. Also, probably trying to keep DL from jumping on these routes that probably can't support both airlines...in CMHs case, DL serves all of its hubs (and more) except for SEA, so it would be a natural addition for them.


AS is having any problems holding on to gates at SEA. AS has a shortage of gates right now with more than half of the N-concourse being under renovation. That is why AS has been using gates in A, B and S concourses on a more-regular basis. That doesn't include using buses for remote stands. We'll have to see what happens to these additional flights that are currently listed as seasonal, when the peak season is done after September. Do these extra flights stay? Maybe.
 
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Re: OAG Changes 12/29/2019: UA Adds DEN-DDC,ORD-DEC, Drops IAH-CAE/DAY

Mon Dec 30, 2019 5:31 pm

cledaybuck wrote:
slcdeltarumd11 wrote:
I could be wrong but does seem like DAY management made any bad decisions does it? Looks like things changed around them and then the airport is a reflection of the area itself , fallen on hard times compared to the glory days. Not sure the airport could have done anything differently could they?

Not really. The problem for DAY is that fares at CVG have dropped dramatically. DAY went from gaining passengers leaking from CVG due to high fares to leaking passengers to CVG (and CMH) due to higher fares (at DAY) or more options at the larger airports.
[/quote]

I don't think DAY did anything wrong either; they've been trying to gain service (currently working on BOS). Not only did passengers leak to CVG, but so did airlines: F9, which had been at DAY for years, moved to CVG once airlines suddenly weren't scared of DL there and exploded. FL had stood by DAY with decent levels of service, but then the merger happened and WN dumped BWI/MCO/TPA/ATL, but added MDW and (briefly) DEN before, again, moving to CVG.

They did gain G4 literally within hours of WN announcing they were leaving, which was a bright spot (and actually prompted WN to readd one last seasonal DAY-MCO before bailing). G4 and DAY were in talks for two new destinations in addition to the ones they have, but they haven't come as of yet. As I mentioned before, I still think NK or F9 jumping in could help. DAY's a ridiculously easy airport to use.

ericm2031 wrote:
DeltaRules wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:

Wow, AS is not playing in SEA......


Both these flights are showing as 739s, too. The daily this summer was mainly a 320, with occasional upgauges to 321s.

TYSflyer wrote:
I think AS usually loads most flights as 739s and then finalizes the aircraft type in the weeks and months following. The 2nd daily SBA-SEA was loaded recently as 739 and was updated to E75 this week.

Right now AS is also trying to hold onto gates, which is determined on number of seats offered, which probably explains a lot of these additional frequencies being added to some small AS stations. Also, probably trying to keep DL from jumping on these routes that probably can't support both airlines...in CMHs case, DL serves all of its hubs (and more) except for SEA, so it would be a natural addition for them.


Oh yeah, DL adding CMH-SEA would make loads of sense. I figured the route would come down to whoever jumped out of line first and was slightly surprised it was AS, but good on them they've been able to make it work; the LFs over the Summer were as high as 97% in July.
Last edited by DeltaRules on Mon Dec 30, 2019 5:38 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: OAG Changes 12/29/2019: UA Adds DEN-DDC,ORD-DEC, Drops IAH-CAE/DAY

Mon Dec 30, 2019 5:36 pm

CO never did very well on CAE-EWR or CAE-IAH. Just be thankful UA still flies to CAE, period.
 
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Re: OAG Changes 12/29/2019: UA Adds DEN-DDC,ORD-DEC, Drops IAH-CAE/DAY

Mon Dec 30, 2019 5:59 pm

Chuska wrote:
UA adds DEN-DDC on Feb 13. Boutique, I'm sure, will pull out. ORD-DEC starts Mar 5, most likely Cape Air will leave. Great to see all these EAS cities get RJ's. Hope to see PDT get UA* RJ's some day, they had UA mainline 727's and 737's back in the day.


https://www.regulations.gov/document?D= ... 23929-0098

New EAS contract indeed. DEC-STL is also ending on Cape Air.

No more EAS prop trip between ORD and STL (via DEC), though :(.

As for HKG-SEA - it's 5/wk even right now. As other said, it was reduced to 4-5/wk during Winter and back up to daily in the summer for the past few years.

In addition, while the protests had dampen demand to/from HKG, you're talking about changes to a route in Sep. 2020. Anyone that followed the protest would know the situation can literally change in matter of days.

P.S. People realized that YVR and SEA is as far apart as SEA and PDX, right?
 
CIDFlyer
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Joined: Wed Apr 13, 2005 7:19 am

Re: OAG Changes 12/29/2019: UA Adds DEN-DDC,ORD-DEC, Drops IAH-CAE/DAY

Tue Dec 31, 2019 1:51 am

jph7291 wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
Why is a 6-7am departure not "that great"?


Simple, most people enjoy sleep. Fewer humans 'want' to wake up at 3:30am for a 6:30am flight versus waking up at 6am for a 9am flight. If they are in that much of a time crunch to arrive at their destination early, many travelers would rather just go the night before.

There is a reason airports are quieter early in the morning. Fewer people.

Sorry but I totally disagree any time I fly I fly out on the earliest flight and that is the busiest time for out station airports with all of the RON flights. My home airport is always packed between 530am and 7am. It’s also wise to get on an early morning flight because if you are delayed along the way you have a better chance to make your destination that day.
 
CIDFlyer
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Joined: Wed Apr 13, 2005 7:19 am

Re: OAG Changes 12/29/2019: UA Adds DEN-DDC,ORD-DEC, Drops IAH-CAE/DAY

Tue Dec 31, 2019 1:55 am

It’s amazing how AA can run a 900 flight a day mega hub at DFW while down the road IAH has struggles and now cutting 2 more destinations. It’s puzzling to me why UA can’t seem to make it work especially since it’s basically their only southern hub. In the south it’s basically AA or DL and UA has become an afterthought
 
jph7291
Posts: 47
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Re: OAG Changes 12/29/2019: UA Adds DEN-DDC,ORD-DEC, Drops IAH-CAE/DAY

Tue Dec 31, 2019 2:13 am

CIDFlyer wrote:
It’s amazing how AA can run a 900 flight a day mega hub at DFW while down the road IAH has struggles and now cutting 2 more destinations. It’s puzzling to me why UA can’t seem to make it work especially since it’s basically their only southern hub. In the south it’s basically AA or DL and UA has become an afterthought


Agreed. But let's not forget, IAH is undoubtedly a massive hub for UA with heavy ongoing investment. With the latest numbers I have seen (2017), IAH was placed as the fifth largest single-airline domestic hub based on seats (behind ATL, DFW, CLT, ORD-UA). Relative proportion of mainline-to-RJ is higher than most of the system. It is far from the 50-seat ERJ haven that it was during the CO days. Could it be larger? Yes. Do I wish it was larger? As my home airport, yes. Am I happy that UA is building up IAD and DEN at the moment, instead? Yes.

I am flying through there on average, every-other-week. IAH is a L-O-N-G way from struggling.
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STT757
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OAG Changes 12/29/2019: UA Adds DEN-DDC,ORD-DEC, Drops IAH-CAE/DAY

Tue Dec 31, 2019 2:31 am

jph7291 wrote:
CIDFlyer wrote:
It’s amazing how AA can run a 900 flight a day mega hub at DFW while down the road IAH has struggles and now cutting 2 more destinations. It’s puzzling to me why UA can’t seem to make it work especially since it’s basically their only southern hub. In the south it’s basically AA or DL and UA has become an afterthought


Agreed. But let's not forget, IAH is undoubtedly a massive hub for UA with heavy ongoing investment. With the latest numbers I have seen (2017), IAH was placed as the fifth largest single-airline domestic hub based on seats (behind ATL, DFW, CLT, ORD-UA). Relative proportion of mainline-to-RJ is higher than most of the system. It is far from the 50-seat ERJ haven that it was during the CO days. Could it be larger? Yes. Do I wish it was larger? As my home airport, yes. Am I happy that UA is building up IAD and DEN at the moment, instead? Yes.

I am flying through there on average, every-other-week. IAH is a L-O-N-G way from struggling.


IAH had its busiest year ever in 2018, the 2019 numbers aren't in yet but I'm sure they expanded on that success. That means UA's hub is growing again, Kirby has identified ORD, DEN and IAH as the linchpins of his strategy to grow UA to its natural market position. He's been successful with the plan thus far, what they need is to get the Max back flying. Remember all the Max flying for UA was from IAH. A new 100 seater and the additional 76 seat ERJ-175s that would come with that would also help IAH.

Around 1994 just as Ferguson was leaving and Gordon Bethune and Gregg Brenneman were taking over CO the airline closed their Denver hub and put all those aircraft (mainline and Express) into the Houston hub which grew dramatically. They also closed the South Pacific operation from Honolulu to Australia , New Zealand, Vancouver and Manila and moved those DC-10s to grow their International flights from EWR and IAH to Europe and South America.

Both of those moves and the new leadership team are the formula to CO's success in the mid-late nineties.

With the merger with UA Denver is back into the equation, so they have to find their natural places in the network. Denver is growing probably the fastest of all of UA's hubs but it lacks the International destinations of Houston. UA's Houston hub is fine, and will continue to grow.
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