Hey all. I know it's not 2020 yet, but let's close

search.php?keywords=nordic+aviation&fid%5B0%5D=3

and start a new thread!

What would you wish to happen at Nordics in 2020?

Anyone cares to predict how Swedish airports will perform in 2020? Will the downward spiral continue?

ilari wrote:

Hey all. I know it's not 2020 yet, but let's close

search.php?keywords=nordic+aviation&fid%5B0%5D=3

and start a new thread!

What would you wish to happen at Nordics in 2020?

Happy New Year!

This is what I'd like to see:

- better fiscal year for Norwegian
- China Southern to HEL
- AY announcing the narrow-body order
- better performance (LF-wise) on DOH/DXB–HEL routes.
- AA announcing DFW/PHL–HEL for 2021.

etc.

SAS and Etihad expands their codeshare agreement with 7 new routes:

ETIHAD operated by SAS
Brussels – Tromsø
Munich – Aarhus
Oslo – Aalborg
Oslo – Haugesund
Stockholm Arlanda – Luleå
Stockholm Arlanda – Tromsø
Stockholm Arlanda – Vaasa

https://www.routesonline.com/news/38/ai ... -dec-2019/

QuawerAir wrote:

- AY announcing the narrow-body order

There were rumours of something being announced 3Q or 4Q '19, but still nothing. IIRC, the A220-300 has visited Helsinki so this might have something to do with the delay. My guess would be A320/321neos replacing the older A319/320s and the E190s being replaced by A220-300s - though that's pure speculation on my part about what Finnair might order.

I'm also wondering about the future of NoRRA and whether it will continue as a separate entity? Repainting the ATRs with the Finnair logo brings everything under the same branding at least.

I

ilari wrote:

Hey all. I know it's not 2020 yet, but let's close

search.php?keywords=nordic+aviation&fid%5B0%5D=3

and start a new thread!

What would you wish to happen at Nordics in 2020?

I wish not to see accidents, bankruptcies, strikes, excessive delays, environmental disasters etc.
Happy new year

I wish the brave crews of the various rescue flights won’t have too much to do. Right now, as usual, the only FR24 reported flight in Swedish airspace is SE-JSP, an air ambulance most likely dropping off a patient from Ornö to a hospital in Stockholm. They probably had quite a view when flying from the base (?) in Norrtälje to Ornö as the passed by Stockholm exactly 00:00 with all the fireworks at their peak.

Happy new year from Halmstad!

ilari wrote:

Hey all. I know it's not 2020 yet, but let's close

search.php?keywords=nordic+aviation&fid%5B0%5D=3

and start a new thread!

What would you wish to happen at Nordics in 2020?

For previous thread please see here:

viewtopic.php?t=1411733

SQ22 wrote:

ilari wrote:

Hey all. I know it's not 2020 yet, but let's close

search.php?keywords=nordic+aviation&fid%5B0%5D=3

and start a new thread!

What would you wish to happen at Nordics in 2020?

For previous thread please see here:

viewtopic.php?t=1411733

Yep, I thought I had a correct link. Thanks!

It's a new decade, which means new things to come in Nordic aviation. Particularly based on Finnair's recent strategy change, I forecast the following things to happen at HEL during the given time period:

Pre-2025

- Flights added to 5:00-10:00, 11:00-14:00 and 19:00-01:00 banks
- Growth in China: double daily to Beijing and Shanghai; strengthened partnerships with HO and CZ; triple dailies to HKG.
- Growth in Japan; triple daily to Tokyo
- Finnair’s narrow-body fleet renewal, additional A350s
- Growth in the U.S together with AA: new destinations: DFW/PHL; SFO and ORD to become year-round.
- Double daily services to SIN and ICN.
- New European routes: LGW, DME, AAL, BHX, CGN, NUE, MRS, etc.

Post-2025 (some of these may happen earlier)

- Flights added to 5:00-10:00, 11:00-14:00 and 19:00-01:00 banks
- Growth in India: new destinations such as Mumbai, Bengaluru and Chennai; new Indian partner (Vistara?)
- Growth in Southeast Asia: new markets such as Indonesia and Malaysia.
- reduced CO2 emissions by the new narrow-body fleet
- preliminary plans of the next major expansion at HEL revealed.
- possible replacement for A330s.

Needless to say but many of the aforementioned matters depend on Siberian overflight rights, restrictions at airports and bilateral air traffic agreements.

How about other Nordic airports?

QuawerAir wrote:

It's a new decade, which means new things to come in Nordic aviation. Particularly based on Finnair's recent strategy change, I forecast the following things to happen at HEL during the given time period:

Pre-2025

- Flights added to 5:00-10:00, 11:00-14:00 and 19:00-01:00 banks
- Growth in China: double daily to Beijing and Shanghai; strengthened partnerships with HO and CZ; triple dailies to HKG.
- Growth in Japan; triple daily to Tokyo
- Finnair’s narrow-body fleet renewal, additional A350s
- Growth in the U.S together with AA: new destinations: DFW/PHL; SFO and ORD to become year-round.
- Double daily services to SIN and ICN.
- New European routes: LGW, DME, AAL, BHX, CGN, NUE, MRS, etc.

Post-2025 (some of these may happen earlier)

- Flights added to 5:00-10:00, 11:00-14:00 and 19:00-01:00 banks
- Growth in India: new destinations such as Mumbai, Bengaluru and Chennai; new Indian partner (Vistara?)
- Growth in Southeast Asia: new markets such as Indonesia and Malaysia.
- reduced CO2 emissions by the new narrow-body fleet
- preliminary plans of the next major expansion at HEL revealed.
- possible replacement for A330s.

Needless to say but many of the aforementioned matters depend on Siberian overflight rights, restrictions at airports and bilateral air traffic agreements.

How about other Nordic airports?

Wizz is starting at least two new routes from TKU. Perhaps they will place one a/c there? And I would like to see FR really trying TMP again.

Finnair increases Helsinki–Rome Fiumicino service from 14 to 23 weekly in S20.

AY1763 HEL 16:20 – 18:45 FCO 321 (Daily)
AY1764 FCO 19:45 – 00:05+1 HEL 321 (Daily)

AY1765 HEL 08:40 – 11:00 FCO 319 (Wed, Fri)
AY1766 FCO 11:55 – 16:55 HEL 319 (Wed, Fri)

AY immediately started to add new flights to feed their intercontinental flights departing at midnight: HND, KIX and PKX. Recently, additional flights have been added to Hamburg and Paris.

Is the 00:05 arrival enough time for the late bank?

QuawerAir wrote:

Finnair increases Helsinki–Rome Fiumicino service from 14 to 23 weekly in S20.

AY1763 HEL 16:20 – 18:45 FCO 321 (Daily)
AY1764 FCO 19:45 – 00:05+1 HEL 321 (Daily)

AY1765 HEL 08:40 – 11:00 FCO 319 (Wed, Fri)
AY1766 FCO 11:55 – 16:55 HEL 319 (Wed, Fri)

AY immediately started to add new flights to feed their intercontinental flights departing at midnight: HND, KIX and PKX. Recently, additional flights have been added to Hamburg and Paris.

I find it interesting how aggressive Finnair is all of a sudden in Italy. Then again it's not that surprising given the state of Alitalia and how uncompetitive they have become. So they have three midnight departures at the moment? (HND, KIX and PKX)

Someone83 wrote:

Is the 00:05 arrival enough time for the late bank?

Blerg wrote:

I find it interesting how aggressive Finnair is all of a sudden in Italy. Then again it's not that surprising given the state of Alitalia and how uncompetitive they have become. So they have three midnight departures at the moment? (HND, KIX and PKX)

AY has SIN, HKG, HND, KIX and PKX. SIN and HKG depart before midnight while HND, KIX and PKX depart around 00:45.

Once AY/Finland gains more traffic rights, BKK, PVG and ICN will probably be added as well.

Someone83 wrote:

Is the 00:05 arrival enough time for the late bank?

Yes works for KIX PKX HND, with 40-45min connection time according to their booking engine.

Edit: You got answered already ,)

Didn't AY had a shortage of nb capacity, will they cut somewhere else in S20?

QuawerAir wrote:

Someone83 wrote:

Is the 00:05 arrival enough time for the late bank?

Blerg wrote:

I find it interesting how aggressive Finnair is all of a sudden in Italy. Then again it's not that surprising given the state of Alitalia and how uncompetitive they have become. So they have three midnight departures at the moment? (HND, KIX and PKX)

AY has SIN, HKG, HND, KIX and PKX. SIN and HKG depart before midnight while HND, KIX and PKX depart around 00:45.

Once AY/Finland gains more traffic rights, BKK, PVG and ICN will probably be added as well.

Isn't there already a BKK flight at midnight? At least winter seasonal.

MareBorealis wrote:

Someone83 wrote:

Is the 00:05 arrival enough time for the late bank?

Yes works for KIX PKX HND, with 40-45min connection time according to their booking engine.

Edit: You got answered already ,)

Didn't AY had a shortage of nb capacity, will they cut somewhere else in S20?

I believe so. I wonder where the reductions have been done. I don't remember how many flights AY had in S19 but it seems that BCN lost 2 weekly flights. I'm not 100% sure though...

ilari wrote:

QuawerAir wrote:

Someone83 wrote:

Is the 00:05 arrival enough time for the late bank?

Blerg wrote:

I find it interesting how aggressive Finnair is all of a sudden in Italy. Then again it's not that surprising given the state of Alitalia and how uncompetitive they have become. So they have three midnight departures at the moment? (HND, KIX and PKX)

AY has SIN, HKG, HND, KIX and PKX. SIN and HKG depart before midnight while HND, KIX and PKX depart around 00:45.

Once AY/Finland gains more traffic rights, BKK, PVG and ICN will probably be added as well.

Isn't there already a BKK flight at midnight? At least winter seasonal.

Yes. I meant during the summer season. Last summer AY had this midnight BKK flight but for S20 it seems to be gone.

Do they have any other destinations these A321s might connect to? Seems like a lot of capacity for three destinations, unless they plan on carrying local passengers as well.

Blerg wrote:

Do they have any other destinations these A321s might connect to? Seems like a lot of capacity for three destinations, unless they plan on carrying local passengers as well.

Swedish, Norwegian and domestic destinations, I guess.

avfiol wrote:

QuawerAir wrote:

- AY announcing the narrow-body order

There were rumours of something being announced 3Q or 4Q '19, but still nothing. IIRC, the A220-300 has visited Helsinki so this might have something to do with the delay. My guess would be A320/321neos replacing the older A319/320s and the E190s being replaced by A220-300s - though that's pure speculation on my part about what Finnair might order.

I'm also wondering about the future of NoRRA and whether it will continue as a separate entity? Repainting the ATRs with the Finnair logo brings everything under the same branding at least.

I

At Finnair E190s replaced by A220-300s would be a 50% increase in capacity. Most likely E190s will be replaced by A220-100 and A220-300 will replace A319s. That would be around 25 planes (10 A220-300s and 15 A220-100 or vise versa if they need more capacity). A320s and older A321s will be replaced by NEOs. How many for A320NEOs and 321NEOs depends on how much is for increase on single flights and how much for more flights. Based Finnairs recent history majority will be A321NEOs as Finnair wants to increase capacity on short haul flights especially as their long haul flights will increase. This in my personal opinion.

QuawerAir wrote:

MareBorealis wrote:

Someone83 wrote:

Is the 00:05 arrival enough time for the late bank?

Yes works for KIX PKX HND, with 40-45min connection time according to their booking engine.

Edit: You got answered already ,)

Didn't AY had a shortage of nb capacity, will they cut somewhere else in S20?

I believe so. I wonder where the reductions have been done. I don't remember how many flights AY had in S19 but it seems that BCN lost 2 weekly flights. I'm not 100% sure though...

Catania does not appear in the timetable. Flights are not bookable either...

More LOT and SAS codeshare on Norwegian domestic routes

https://www.routesonline.com/news/38/ai ... -dec-2019/

LOT Operated by SAS
Oslo – Alesund
Oslo – Trondheim
Oslo – Tromso

THS214 wrote:

At Finnair E190s replaced by A220-300s would be a 50% increase in capacity. Most likely E190s will be replaced by A220-100 and A220-300 will replace A319s. That would be around 25 planes (10 A220-300s and 15 A220-100 or vise versa if they need more capacity). A320s and older A321s will be replaced by NEOs. How many for A320NEOs and 321NEOs depends on how much is for increase on single flights and how much for more flights. Based Finnairs recent history majority will be A321NEOs as Finnair wants to increase capacity on short haul flights especially as their long haul flights will increase. This in my personal opinion.

If Finnair wants to have a fleet of approx. 100 aircraft in 2025, they should be placing the order pretty soon, maybe even this year (at Paris Air Show?). I've thought something like this:

- ATRs remain in the fleet for now.
- E190s and A319s (20 units) to be replaced by A220 (25 units).
- A320 and A321 (29 units) to be replaced by A320neo aircraft (33 units).
- A330 to remain in the fleet, to be retired in 2026-2030 and replaced by A330neo/A350.

If AY decides to retire ATRs (unlikely):

- ATRs and E190s (24 units) to be replaced by A220-100 (25 units).
- A320-family (37 units) to be replaced by A320neo aircraft (45 units).

QuawerAir wrote:

THS214 wrote:

At Finnair E190s replaced by A220-300s would be a 50% increase in capacity. Most likely E190s will be replaced by A220-100 and A220-300 will replace A319s. That would be around 25 planes (10 A220-300s and 15 A220-100 or vise versa if they need more capacity). A320s and older A321s will be replaced by NEOs. How many for A320NEOs and 321NEOs depends on how much is for increase on single flights and how much for more flights. Based Finnairs recent history majority will be A321NEOs as Finnair wants to increase capacity on short haul flights especially as their long haul flights will increase. This in my personal opinion.

If Finnair wants to have a fleet of approx. 100 aircraft in 2025, they should be placing the order pretty soon, maybe even this year (at Paris Air Show?). I've thought something like this:

- ATRs remain in the fleet for now.
- E190s and A319s (20 units) to be replaced by A220 (25 units).
- A320 and A321 (29 units) to be replaced by A320neo aircraft (33 units).
- A330 to remain in the fleet, to be retired in 2026-2030 and replaced by A330neo/A350.

If AY decides to retire ATRs (unlikely):

- ATRs and E190s (24 units) to be replaced by A220-100 (25 units).
- A320-family (37 units) to be replaced by A320neo aircraft (45 units).

We seem to have same idea of Finnair future except their newest A321-231s won't leave before 2030. That's my take. How do you see A220s 100/300?

QuawerAir wrote:

If AY decides to retire ATRs (unlikely):

- ATRs and E190s (24 units) to be replaced by A220-100 (25 units).
- A320-family (37 units) to be replaced by A320neo aircraft (45 units).

[/list]

AY will not stop flying shorter domestic routes which getting rid of ATR's would essentially mean. They would be getting into a climate chance PR nightmare by flying to places like Tampere with a jet.

THS214 wrote:

QuawerAir wrote:

THS214 wrote:

At Finnair E190s replaced by A220-300s would be a 50% increase in capacity. Most likely E190s will be replaced by A220-100 and A220-300 will replace A319s. That would be around 25 planes (10 A220-300s and 15 A220-100 or vise versa if they need more capacity). A320s and older A321s will be replaced by NEOs. How many for A320NEOs and 321NEOs depends on how much is for increase on single flights and how much for more flights. Based Finnairs recent history majority will be A321NEOs as Finnair wants to increase capacity on short haul flights especially as their long haul flights will increase. This in my personal opinion.

If Finnair wants to have a fleet of approx. 100 aircraft in 2025, they should be placing the order pretty soon, maybe even this year (at Paris Air Show?). I've thought something like this:

- ATRs remain in the fleet for now.
- E190s and A319s (20 units) to be replaced by A220 (25 units).
- A320 and A321 (29 units) to be replaced by A320neo aircraft (33 units).
- A330 to remain in the fleet, to be retired in 2026-2030 and replaced by A330neo/A350.

If AY decides to retire ATRs (unlikely):

- ATRs and E190s (24 units) to be replaced by A220-100 (25 units).
- A320-family (37 units) to be replaced by A320neo aircraft (45 units).

We seem to have same idea of Finnair future except their newest A321-231s won't leave before 2030. That's my take. How do you see A220s 100/300?

Yes, indeed Regarding A220, I believe A220-100 will be AY's choice of a replacement for E190 if they ordered A220s as -300 might be too big an aircraft to replace 100-seat E190s (it's like replacing them with A319). I agree with you as you said A319s are likely going to be replaced by A220-300s so we have the same idea there as well. If I recall correctly, the lease of 8 A321-231 aircraft expires in 2026 at the latest so it's possible that they'll be replaced as well.

QuawerAir wrote:

THS214 wrote:

QuawerAir wrote:

If Finnair wants to have a fleet of approx. 100 aircraft in 2025, they should be placing the order pretty soon, maybe even this year (at Paris Air Show?). I've thought something like this:

- ATRs remain in the fleet for now.
- E190s and A319s (20 units) to be replaced by A220 (25 units).
- A320 and A321 (29 units) to be replaced by A320neo aircraft (33 units).
- A330 to remain in the fleet, to be retired in 2026-2030 and replaced by A330neo/A350.

If AY decides to retire ATRs (unlikely):

- ATRs and E190s (24 units) to be replaced by A220-100 (25 units).
- A320-family (37 units) to be replaced by A320neo aircraft (45 units).

We seem to have same idea of Finnair future except their newest A321-231s won't leave before 2030. That's my take. How do you see A220s 100/300?

Yes, indeed Regarding A220, I believe A220-100 will be AY's choice of a replacement for E190 if they ordered A220s as -300 might be too big an aircraft to replace 100-seat E190s (it's like replacing them with A319). I agree with you as you said A319s are likely going to be replaced by A220-300s so we have the same idea there as well. If I recall correctly, the lease of 8 A321-231 aircraft expires in 2026 at the latest so it's possible that they'll be replaced as well.

I believe that Finnair will keep all those 13 A321-321s until 2030. Simply because when they get A321NEOs those 13 A321-321s can be used on shorter flights (5 with ACTs (displaced)) . It's all about (overhead) price.

A330s will be used for another 10 years (size matters here).

Big question is A350 after 2023. I believe that Finnair will order A350-1000s. Like 12 + 7 A350-900. They need capacity for many long haul flights.

QuawerAir wrote:

Finnair increases Helsinki–Rome Fiumicino service from 14 to 23 weekly in S20.

AY1763 HEL 16:20 – 18:45 FCO 321 (Daily)
AY1764 FCO 19:45 – 00:05+1 HEL 321 (Daily)

AY1765 HEL 08:40 – 11:00 FCO 319 (Wed, Fri)
AY1766 FCO 11:55 – 16:55 HEL 319 (Wed, Fri)

AY immediately started to add new flights to feed their intercontinental flights departing at midnight: HND, KIX and PKX. Recently, additional flights have been added to Hamburg and Paris.

That Rome schedule shows that Finnair needs wide bodies also for Europe (not only Heathrow). A350s to replace A330s so they can be used in Europe (appropriately configured)? On the other hand, more frequency. For Rome it works.

The evening flights arrive at 23.00 and the current arrives just after midnight.

SAS is getting another contract with the Norwegian Armed Forces: This time to operate 2x weekly between OSL and LKL (Lakselv-Banak) in Northern Norway.

I was invited to HEL yesterday and watched at passengers boarding to HO's flight to PVG. To my amazement, the majority of passengers was reportedly Japanese passengers heading to Japan via Shanghai. Flights usually are 60-80% full but yesterday it was nearly sold out (only a few seats left). I assume they chose HO because of low prices.

QuawerAir wrote:

I was invited to HEL yesterday and watched at passengers boarding to HO's flight to PVG. To my amazement, the majority of passengers was reportedly Japanese passengers heading to Japan via Shanghai. Flights usually are 60-80% full but yesterday it was nearly sold out (only a few seats left). I assume they chose HO because of low prices.

What kind of connections they would have from PVG? I mean if they are from Fukuoka area AY should make it year around ...

Champions Hockey League semifinals are on this week and next week. Mountfield Hradec Kralove will arrive in Stockholm for the game against Djurgarden with Enter Air:

http://hockeycharters.blogspot.com/2020 ... inals.html

Pegasus Airlines is starting Istanbul SAW-Helsinki flights in June (if I understand correctly form their Turkish-language webpage). Flights seem to be 4 x week.

teme82 wrote:

QuawerAir wrote:

I was invited to HEL yesterday and watched at passengers boarding to HO's flight to PVG. To my amazement, the majority of passengers was reportedly Japanese passengers heading to Japan via Shanghai. Flights usually are 60-80% full but yesterday it was nearly sold out (only a few seats left). I assume they chose HO because of low prices.

What kind of connections they would have from PVG? I mean if they are from Fukuoka area AY should make it year around ...

Juneyao serve several cities in Japan, not FUK though. Perhaps the Japanese were a part of a tour group, got a good deal on HO.

FunFlying wrote:

Pegasus Airlines is starting Istanbul SAW-Helsinki flights in June (if I understand correctly form their Turkish-language webpage). Flights seem to be 4 x week.

Seems like Helsinki is having a really good period lately. Lots of growth all around.

Someone83 wrote:

SAS is getting another contract with the Norwegian Armed Forces: This time to operate 2x weekly between OSL and LKL (Lakselv-Banak) in Northern Norway.

Source?

FunFlying wrote:

Pegasus Airlines is starting Istanbul SAW-Helsinki flights in June (if I understand correctly form their Turkish-language webpage). Flights seem to be 4 x week.

Their English web page shows same flights.

minilinde wrote:

Someone83 wrote:

SAS is getting another contract with the Norwegian Armed Forces: This time to operate 2x weekly between OSL and LKL (Lakselv-Banak) in Northern Norway.

Source?

Announced in «Doffin», ie the public procurement database in Norway

Nothing official press release from the airline yet

QuawerAir wrote:

Finnair increases Helsinki–Rome Fiumicino service from 14 to 23 weekly in S20.

AY1763 HEL 16:20 – 18:45 FCO 321 (Daily)
AY1764 FCO 19:45 – 00:05+1 HEL 321 (Daily)

AY1765 HEL 08:40 – 11:00 FCO 319 (Wed, Fri)
AY1766 FCO 11:55 – 16:55 HEL 319 (Wed, Fri)

AY immediately started to add new flights to feed their intercontinental flights departing at midnight: HND, KIX and PKX. Recently, additional flights have been added to Hamburg and Paris.

Sorry, but I don't understand. Could you provide the full schedule with all 23 weekly? AY1763/1764 is the same evening flight that has been going for many years now. It's just on those days that the aircraft overnights in FCO that the flight numbers are AY1769/1770 (which is mostly in winter, can't recall if in summer the AC returns every day to overnight in HEL).

THS214 wrote:

That Rome schedule shows that Finnair needs wide bodies also for Europe (not only Heathrow). A350s to replace A330s so they can be used in Europe (appropriately configured)? On the other hand, more frequency. For Rome it works.

The evening flights arrive at 23.00 and the current arrives just after midnight.

It's actually a bit more complicated than it sounds like. Let's take a look at the new CDG flight next summer as an example:

AY1585 HEL 15:30 – 17:35 CDG 321 (Daily)
AY1586 CDG 18:30 – 22:25 HEL 321 (Daily)

AY1577 HEL 16:05 – 18:10 CDG 321 (Daily)
AY1578 CDG 19:00 – 22:55 HEL 321 (Daily)

So, the first flight will depart from HEL ideally to connect with feed from places like ICN, PEK, PVG that arrive around 2pm-2:30pm. Then, the second flight will provide connections for flights arriving around 3pm, such as NRT, KIX, NGO, BKK.

Then, on the return flight, the earlier flight is ideal to provide feed for domestic, Russian, TLL, ARN, HKG & SIN flight. While the latter one is able to provide a (tight) connection to all those flights, it is more ideally suited to the KIX; HND & PKX after midnight flights.

And why wouldn't it be better to offer a wide-body? Firstly, it would have to wait for all the afternoon connections before departure, so 4:05pm is the earliest it could depart. Then, the turnaround time in CDG would have to be increased, creating at least an additional 20 minutes to the schedule. That would make the arrival back to HEL already too tight for some of the earliest onward connections.

Yes, it currently works somewhat on AY1337/1338 to LHR, but that flight has become somewhat more delay-prone since it moved over to the 333. Often connecting flights in the midnight bank in HEL have to wait for passengers from it.

Of course, the onboard hard product would be a whole another story. Offering the long-haul level of business class to European destinations is unlikely to provide the same yields as just using the space for standard economy seats onboard an A321.

teme82 wrote:

QuawerAir wrote:

I was invited to HEL yesterday and watched at passengers boarding to HO's flight to PVG. To my amazement, the majority of passengers was reportedly Japanese passengers heading to Japan via Shanghai. Flights usually are 60-80% full but yesterday it was nearly sold out (only a few seats left). I assume they chose HO because of low prices.

What kind of connections they would have from PVG? I mean if they are from Fukuoka area AY should make it year around ...

I think this Japanese "invasion" was a one-off due to the Christmas/New Year's time. The demand picks up from Japan to Finland over the Holidays, and back in the days AY even used to route it's NRT flight through RVN on Christmas Eve to fly tourists straight to Lapland.

QuawerAir wrote:

It's a new decade, which means new things to come in Nordic aviation. Particularly based on Finnair's recent strategy change, I forecast the following things to happen at HEL during the given time period:

Pre-2025

- Flights added to 5:00-10:00, 11:00-14:00 and 19:00-01:00 banks
- Growth in China: double daily to Beijing and Shanghai; strengthened partnerships with HO and CZ; triple dailies to HKG.
- Growth in Japan; triple daily to Tokyo
- Finnair’s narrow-body fleet renewal, additional A350s
- Growth in the U.S together with AA: new destinations: DFW/PHL; SFO and ORD to become year-round.
- Double daily services to SIN and ICN.
- New European routes: LGW, DME, AAL, BHX, CGN, NUE, MRS, etc.

Post-2025 (some of these may happen earlier)

- Flights added to 5:00-10:00, 11:00-14:00 and 19:00-01:00 banks
- Growth in India: new destinations such as Mumbai, Bengaluru and Chennai; new Indian partner (Vistara?)
- Growth in Southeast Asia: new markets such as Indonesia and Malaysia.
- reduced CO2 emissions by the new narrow-body fleet
- preliminary plans of the next major expansion at HEL revealed.
- possible replacement for A330s.

Needless to say but many of the aforementioned matters depend on Siberian overflight rights, restrictions at airports and bilateral air traffic agreements.

How about other Nordic airports?

OK, I'll take a bite at HEL as well. First, a wish list (not so realistic), and then a forecast (more realistic). Although I'm going to be focusing only on Pre-2025, since five years in aviation is a loooooong time.

Wish list:

- AY orders 10 35K to be delivered after 359s to increase capacity on most popular flights, and to free up 359s to replace 333s (or to free them up for European flights or new destinations)
- AY orders 15 A221 + 15 A223 to replace E90 & A319, 15 A320neo to replace A320s, 8 A321neos to replace oldest A321s and 7 A321XLRs configured with long-haul seats to try out thinner routes to China, India, US & Canada
- AY returns to YYZ, CKG, HAN, BOM and launches CTU, KMG, TAO, WUH, DPS, CGK, TPE, MNL, KUL
- AY returns to SVX, KUF, KZN and launches DME (with S7), MMK, ARH & OVB utilizing overnight flights
- AY returns to IST, OTP, KBP, LGW, launches BHX, GLA, SVG, AAL, CGN, NUE, TLS, MRS, TRN, VLC, BEG, SOF, CMN, AMM
- Domestic air travel demand does not decrease, AY returns to ENF
- AA opens up DFW-HEL
- CX, MH, UL & CZ open up HEL
- AY realizes that HEL is the closest gateway in the EU to HNL and opens up flights
- QF realizes that HEL is the closest gateway in the EU to Australia and opens up PER/SYD
- NORRA, BRA, DAT, Sun-Air & Wideroe merge to create a strong, Nordic regional airline co-operating with AY & IAG
- More even playing field regarding costs with airlines worldwide, especially Gulf & Chinese carriers
- Passengers begin to appreciate more the level of service than just low cost

Yeah, what a dream land. So let's take a look at the forecast:

- Most of new A359s will go to building the midnight bank, meaning less growth as 2 frames will be taken up per flight. New destinations become increasingly improbable, increasing frequencies on existing routes becomes the focus
- In the next recession XIY & NKG will be cut, CAN survives due to CZ ties
- LAX becomes seasonal
- In the next recession, JYV, TKU, TMP will be cut, along with HAJ, LYS, OPO, BOD, BLQ & maybe STR, BLL
- AA tries PHL with A321XLRs but cancels after a couple of years
- EK begins HEL disturbing the market further
- FR increases its presence by adding flights from cheap, low-cost bases
- TV & 3U leave HEL. HO survives
- 70% chance of AY's narrowbody order containing 20 A220s and 20 A32Xneos, 30% chance of being MAX & E2 (the fact that it hasn't been announced yet could suggest that they've gotten a good price from Boeing but wait for the dust to settle around MAX before announcing it)
- BRA & Wideroe are running increasingly into trouble, causing problems for AY with Scandinavian regional feed
- Increasing pressure (with recession) for AY to be sold to IAG and find a partner with LCC cost structure for European flights (LEVEL?)

OK, the realistic forecast turned out to be quite pessimistic. Maybe the truth is somewhere there in between

Starting from 09.01 Wizz Air will be reducing NYO-BEG from 3 to 2 weekly flights.

Due to a fire in the parking garage, SVG is currently closed

Just saw that on the news, parking garaged collapse. EV fire gone bad I assume....this might be a insight into the future.

EFHK wrote:

- 70% chance of AY's narrowbody order containing 20 A220s and 20 A32Xneos, 30% chance of being MAX & E2 (the fact that it hasn't been announced yet could suggest that they've gotten a good price from Boeing but wait for the dust to settle around MAX before announcing it)

Well Finnair did have a couple of Cargo 737s many years ago (a taste of their current economy offering - <joke!> ), but 737MAX now - I don't think so given their investment into an Airbus fleet, training and simulators and their experience with Airbus equipment. Remember before that they flew DC-9s, MD-80s and MD-11s (halcyon days) with the 757s only for the holiday flights where the original 321s couldn't match the range, so to move to a Boeing fleet would be strange move I think.

Honestly, I think we're looking either at E2s or A220s in some form. The ATRs will stay, though I can also see a move to pushing traffic to rail for Turku and Tampere possibly.

With so many cuts at NYO, will they drop to around 1.5 million passengers in 2019? I guess the airport will be firing some staff?

In another thread I read that Tarom will be reducing ARN from January to March. There seems to be quite a lot of cuts to ARN/NYO in recent times. Anyone care to predict what will happen and if this trend will continue? FR downsizing NYO is also unfortunate as it will put less pressure on W6. On the other hand, ARN did lost several long-haul destinations (from SK's HKG to all of Norwegian).

UpNAWAy wrote:

Just saw that on the news, parking garaged collapse. EV fire gone bad I assume....this might be a insight into the future.

It was a diesel Opel Zafira but don't let your biases get in the way of the truth.

China Eastern is suspensing their ARN route from 15. January til 15. June

So the bad news for ARN just keeps coming

https://www.routesonline.com/news/38/ai ... e-in-1h20/

China Eastern starting next week is temporary suspending Shanghai Pu Dong – Stockholm Arlanda route, as the airline converts this service back to seasonal operation. Currently served 4 times weekly, the Skyteam member is suspending this route from 15JAN20 to 15JUN20.