williaminsd
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Sacramento (SMF) Aviation Thread - 2020

Mon Dec 30, 2019 7:05 pm

With only two days left in the 20-teens, I thought it a good time to start the SMF thread for 2020.

Here's a link to the previous thread:

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1412011&hilit=smf

As noted elsewhere, while SMF enjoyed another phenomenal year in 2019, it wasn’t quite the huge splash that 2018 was. Nonetheless, and with SMF running a month behind on updating its statistics, here are some hallmarks:

Biggest of all – over 13,000,000 pax in 2019. Through October 2019, passenger traffic is up 9.8% at nearly 11 million, so 13mm pax should be reached without too much difficulty. Given the double-digit gains in 2018, that sustainability is remarkable.

Largest enplanements’ increase by percentage is Frontier, which is up over 330% in its first full year of operations at SMF (you read that right… 330%). The addition of a daily flight to Maui boosted Hawaiian Airlines count by over 34%. Only one airline shows a loss for the year through October. That’s JetBlue, which is off 6.5%, though it had been coming on strong through the summer and early fall with October 2019 up yoy 17%. We’ll see how it shakes-out the last two months.

International enplanements show a superb increase of over 31% through October led by Volaris with 16,673 more passengers through the gate for an increase of nearly 39%. Volaris is the #1 international carrier at SMF followed by steady AeroMexico (up 6.1%) and Air Canada, which nearly doubled its enplanements to over 17.5k with a LF for its daily flight to Vancouver averaging better than 85%.

SMF served over million passengers for 16 of the last 18 months and that is likely to increase to 18 of the last 20 when the final 2019 figures are released. In July 2019, SMF for the first time served over 1.2 million passengers.

Looking back over the entire decade, even with the brutal period from 2011-2013, pax traffic is up over 50% than the 8.66 million pax in 2010. In fact, the best month in 2010 (June – 827k) wouldn’t top the worst month in 2019 (Feb – 860k).

The vast majority of the growth has occurred since 2016, when SMF for the first time eclipsed 10 million pax. 2017-2019 alone accounts for over a third of the total decade growth at nearly 3 mil. By any measure, the last three years have been a golden age at SMF.

Freight is off over 10%, but that comes following 2018’s record-shattering >240 million pounds and >61% increase yoy. Please note that Mather posted freight gains of nearly 10% through October and between the two airports total freight could well exceed 400 million pounds.

How did your predictions go for 2019? Here are some of mine, with reality following…

“How will the continuing intra-state battle between Alaska and Southwest play-out at SMF?”
For now, Southwest seems to be more than holding its own. After peaking at 4x/day SMF-SAN including 1x mainline, Alaska announced earlier this month it was cutting back to 3x/day. At present the last flight back from SMF is scheduled for 3:20. That makes it tough for those who need a full day in Sacramento region. Seems to me Alaska is going in the wrong direction here if they want to capture a lucrative business market. SAN-SMF is the number one pairing out of Sacramento with nearly 600k annually. Three flights a day isn’t going to cut it.

“What impact will new SCK-LAX service have?”
To-date, very little. According to the San Joaquin County Aviation Advisory Committee meeting minutes, as of October the LF on the 2x/day service is an anemic 55%. That’s fewer than 60 pax/day. SCK officials must be scrambling as that isn’t viable. Maybe the holidays saved them, but if this keeps up, Allegiant will soon have Stockton all to itself again and no other airline will take the Stockton plunge for at least another five years.

I see at least one new airline in 2019, probably another LCC.
Well, absolutely crushed this one: not one new carrier (Sun Country), not two new carriers (Contour), but THREE new carriers (Boutique) one of which is clearly an LLC.

“Put me down for a new, morning flight to JFK”
Nope… not yet anyway. I keep thinking this is a natural for Delta, which has slowly been increasing both market-share and destinations at SMF, and JFK is a key expansion market.

“New service to FLL, PHL, and BNA. BOS goes year-round”
No, No, No and No… (really racking up the wins here!)

“Hobby goes daily, probably at 2x/day.”
Came and went over the course of the year, probably due to MAX issues. Scheduled to start up daily again in March, albeit at 1x/day.

“Intra-state I’ll go with SBA and BFL, and the return of seasonal PSP.”
SBA a BIG yes, now at 2x/day. PSP a big yes @ daily. Both on Contour which has rapidly expanded its presence at SMF.
BFL? Must have been smokin’ that whacky-tabacky that afternoon…

“I’ll go out on a limb here and say RDD(!) gets a morning flight.”
More of that tabacky, but I feel somewhat vindicated by Boutique’s shift from Merced-Oakland to Merced-Sacramento. This was the kind of thing I was anticipating in 2019, it just came from south instead of north. Looks like Boutique is actually increasing service into the new year as Sunday AND Monday are 2x/day. I still don’t know why they don’t relocate to Terminal A to better connect with their partners at United, but I guess it’s working.

“Additional frequency to Vancouver.”
Is 85% LF enough to trigger another daily? Not yet anyway…

“Additional service to secondary/vacation market in Mexico.”
Plenty of service to Cabo, but I was anticipating perhaps Puerto Vallarta. I’m going to have to put this down as a miss…

“Do either Alaska or Southwest increase service to feed Hawaii?”
So far, the answer is a clear “no,” but this has been a crazy market in 2019 with Southwest equipment issues, then starting service to HNL in November and announcing service to OGG in March 2020; Hawaiian discontinuing wide-body service (sort-of, I’ve seen several days when HNL service was on an A330) in favor of the A321, but adding Maui for 2x/day service to Hawaii. While Alaska cut the short-lived Kona service, so far it is holding firm on Maui. That means starting this March, SMF will have 523 seats to Maui every day on three airlines. That’s a LOT of capacity…

Also of note is that in another thread, SMF was ranked the 42 busiest airport in the country for international enplanements. This is one below St. Louis and better than Nashville, Cincinnati, Cleveland and Pittsburgh. Not bad!

Other milestones include the reconstruction of 16R-34L and replacing the asphalt surface with concrete; the opening of the two Escape lounges (which I can only report anecdotally that the lounge in Concourse B seems to be a resounding success); a new economy parking lot was completed with 2600 spaces… what am I missing here?

Also, for as much grief as the Terminal/Concourse B replacement got from some when it opened in 2011, it is clear a mere eight years later, the airport desperately needs new gates and expanded facilities, especially the car rental building. In March, new airport director Cindy Nichol said the airport is looking to add at least six new gates to the existing 31 but hasn’t determined at which concourse they’d be built. Both concourses have room to expand.

What can we look for in 2020? As always, the big caveat is the economy and no matter what you may think of the president, the economy at present is arguably the best in history. So if we stay strong, what can SMF expect?

I’m looking at maturing markets rather than a lot of new service.

I’ll stick with Delta to JFK (I have to be right eventually…)

Boston year round daily on JetBlue (maturing), and but no new service to FLL until 2021 when the A220s start coming online. Maybe the A220 saves LGB service in 2021 as well.

Southwest to BNA and the return of MCO. Maybe MCI…

American to PHL.

Contour to CEC. Maybe SBP…

After that it starts looking slim…
Alaska? Where?
Frontier… I think they’ve maxed for a while.
Hawaiian… no.
Spirit… meh.
Sun Country… nope.
United? Hubs are pretty well covered now. Daytime to EWR if Delta lags? Maybe.
Outside of those… what?
New airlines, not seeing any.

Doesn’t mean 2020 will be a bad year at SMF at all (tepid "roaring" at best), just not what we’ve seen over the last couple of years.

I’m looking at growth in the 7% range and topping 14,000,000 in 2020, with somewhere around 46 unique destinations.

I look forward to comments from everyone who like me, loves watching SMF’s grow!
Last edited by SQ22 on Wed Jan 01, 2020 5:42 pm, edited 4 times in total.
Reason: Title updated
 
DesertAir
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Re: SMF/Sacramento - 2020

Mon Dec 30, 2019 7:15 pm

[i][i][i][i]What impact will new SCK-LAX service have?”
To-date, very little. According to the San Joaquin County Aviation Advisory Committee meeting minutes, as of October the LF on the 2x/day service is an anemic 55%. That’s fewer than 60 pax/day. SCK officials must be scrambling as that isn’t viable. Maybe the holidays saved them, but if this keeps up, Allegiant will soon have Stockton all to itself again and no other airline will take the Stockton plunge for at least another five years.
[/i][/i][/i][/I]

I do not see why Allegiant does not run a daily roundtrip to LAX fro SCK. For 10 years I made a monthly trip to Stockton from San Diego to attend to an elderly parent. WN averages about 12 flights a day on SAN-SMF which made the trip very easy. UA would require a stop in LAX with long connection wait times. The Allegiant service to SCK from SAN made a weekend trip difficult.

California needs an inexpensive commuter airline with reliable service and reasonable fares.

SMF continues to be the best option for San Joaquin Valley and the foothills' communities.
 
jplatts
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Re: SMF/Sacramento - 2020

Mon Dec 30, 2019 7:27 pm

williaminsd wrote:
Southwest to BNA and the return of MCO. Maybe MCI…


I agree about WN possibly re-adding SMF-BNA, SMF-MCO, and SMF-MCI nonstop service. There are also a few other nonstop routes that could get added by WN out of SMF such as SMF-ATL, SMF-FLL, SMF-KOA, and SMF-SAT.

While DL already serves ATL nonstop from SMF, I mentioned WN possibly adding SMF-ATL nonstop service with WN recently adding ATL-CHS/MEM/ORF/ECP nonstop service, with SMF being one of the largest WN stations that WN doesn't currently serve nonstop from ATL, and with WN being able to offer 1-stop connections to a few additional destinations such as GSP, RIC, and PBI from SMF if WN adds SMF-ATL nonstop service.

SJC is also the only WN station larger than SMF that doesn't already have nonstop service to ATL on WN, but the lack of WN SJC-ATL nonstop service is less of an issue with WN already serving ATL nonstop from OAK in the San Francisco Bay Area.
 
flyfresno
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Re: SMF/Sacramento - 2020

Mon Dec 30, 2019 7:31 pm

DesertAir wrote:
SMF continues to be the best option for San Joaquin Valley and the foothills' communities.


If you count the *entire* San Joaquin Valley, Fresno is holding it’s own and drawing more and more from Merced to Bakersfield. I doubt more than a couple people drive to FAT from Stockton when OAK and SMF are so close, besides taking advantage of Mexico service (particularly MLM), but FAT-SAN (and FAT overall) is growing nicely and fares are generally competitive enough with SMF that I’m sure more and more people from Merced and south are choosing FAT.
 
williaminsd
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Re: SMF/Sacramento - 2020

Tue Dec 31, 2019 1:22 pm

jplatts wrote:
williaminsd wrote:
Southwest to BNA and the return of MCO. Maybe MCI…


I agree about WN possibly re-adding SMF-BNA, SMF-MCO, and SMF-MCI nonstop service. There are also a few other nonstop routes that could get added by WN out of SMF such as SMF-ATL, SMF-FLL, SMF-KOA, and SMF-SAT.


I had forgotten that SMF-BNA had been served last June. SAT's a good call too. I had thought we'd see it in 2018. The MAX dynamic will be interesting. As these brand new birds return to service en masse, Southwest planners will be equally eager to place them quickly and start seeing a return. It makes sense that SMF is a beneficiary, especially as it is looking at 100+ departures/day Summer 2020. So you could be spot-on with your other routes as well.

Shortly after my OP, SMF released November figures. As expected, SMF again served over a million passengers to break 12mm for the year. At this point, 13,000,000 for the year is a certainty. While yoy growth is only 2.2%, dolphinflyer explained in the old thread that due to some unique calendar issues this year, this paltry growth rate should not cause too much concern and that we can expect to see a stronger bump in December as a result.

I've heard the same reasoning from officials at my hometown airport, SAN, and it seems legit.

One item of note (to me) with November's figures, they show Delta Airlines has quietly increased enplanements by 18% for the year over 2018. I know the new Detroit service accounts for part of that, but they seem to be making inroads in the Sacramento market.

International traffic continues to grow at a brisk >30% pace. Could SMF become a top 40 international airport in 2020? With only two spots to go and at a 30% clip, might even make it in 2019.

Also - brought to my attention that SMF had FOUR new airlines start in 2019, not merely three as Spirit Airlines began service in June.

2019 was yet another great year at SMF. It will need between 7-8% increase to crack 14mm in 2020. Even by just "maturing" existing routes and SW going to 100+ departures/day, that seems eminently possible.
 
smflyer
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Re: Sacramento (SMF) Aviation Thread - 2020

Thu Jan 02, 2020 4:34 pm

I'm in agreement with the predictions williaminsd have said. Another prediction: Jet Suite X SMF-SNA. Since SEA/YVR traffic continues to increase maybe G4 SMF-BLI? Maybe Contour makes SMF another focus city and starts: SMF-TUS, SMF-ABQ, and maybe SMF-KCI if their E135 has the range for that. AS SMF-PAE? and maybe Volaris starts service to Morelia which was previously served by Mexicana if I remember correctly?

Another prediction for the airport operations is the airport will announce expansion of airside B with 2 extra gates on the WN side, and 4 gates on the eastern portion. Expand the number of international capable gates from 2 to 4. Add 2 additional baggage claims in terminal B. Maybe also announce that new terminal B parking garage/car rental facility and convert the old rental car facility to long term parking. I'm thinking the announcements happen this year, construction begins in 2021 with completion in 2023. I would assume they do it in a step wise fashion and take their time to minimize impact on airport operations just like how they took 3-4 years to update/remodel terminal A, add security lines, new runway.

I doubt they will want to further expand terminal A as the main bottleneck there is the security checkpoint and even with the recent expansion, security lines continue to be long in the mornings. There doesn't seem to be much need for gate space other than the morning rush. If anything, they can shuffle some morning heavy airlines (eg. delta) to terminal B and move daytime airlines (eg. spirit) to terminal A to have more evenly distributed amount of passengers throughout the day.
 
williaminsd
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Re: Sacramento (SMF) Aviation Thread - 2020

Sat Jan 11, 2020 7:17 pm

Flightsfrom.com now shows Alaska Airlines goes back to daily 4x/day SMF-SAN starting March 19 with the last flight leaving SMF @ 5:30. A key difference is that none of these are shown as mainline for now and all of them on the E175.

This is a much better schedule for those of us who prefer to get our business done in one day if possible (albeit, a BUSY day) and shows that Alaska is not at all throwing in the towel on the business market on the segment. While mainline is nice, most of you know Alaska's (OO/QX) E175s carry 12 seats in F and this is one of the reasons I prefer Alaska on the route. Btw - this site shows a combined (with Southwest) 19 flights/day on this route each way M-F once Alaska returns to the daily 4x.

I hope this proves accurate. I just did a faux reso for March 19 on the Alaska site and it showed 4x w/last one at 5:30, so there is reason for confidence. Keeping fingers crossed...

Btw smflyer, I think your SMF-PAE call is on point.
 
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SANFan
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Re: Sacramento (SMF) Aviation Thread - 2020

Sun Jan 12, 2020 12:12 am

williaminsd wrote:
Flightsfrom.com now shows Alaska Airlines goes back to daily 4x/day SMF-SAN starting March 19 with the last flight leaving SMF @ 5:30. A key difference is that none of these are shown as mainline for now and all of them on the E175.

This is a much better schedule for those of us who prefer to get our business done in one day if possible (albeit, a BUSY day) and shows that Alaska is not at all throwing in the towel on the business market on the segment. While mainline is nice, most of you know Alaska's (OO/QX) E175s carry 12 seats in F and this is one of the reasons I prefer Alaska on the route. Btw - this site shows a combined (with Southwest) 19 flights/day on this route each way M-F once Alaska returns to the daily 4x.

I hope this proves accurate. I just did a faux reso for March 19 on the Alaska site and it showed 4x w/last one at 5:30, so there is reason for confidence. Keeping fingers crossed...

Btw smflyer, I think your SMF-PAE call is on point.

Sorry to spoil the party William but SMF-SAN has been 4x daily since April of 2019 and remains so up thru May 20 of this year; that's when it's cut to triple-daily, and as of now, it seems to remain that way until further notice. The skeds see time changes, with some being more spread out and better than others.

Hopefully AAG will receive customer feedback (read: complaints) about the cut in service -- hint hint -- and things might change. I certainly agree that less flights between the 2 cities is not the way for AAG to go! (The Network Planners in SEA have been known to listen to their customers and make appropriate changes to frequency and capacity on popular routes.)

bb
 
wedgetail737
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Re: Sacramento (SMF) Aviation Thread - 2020

Sun Jan 12, 2020 12:43 am

williaminsd wrote:
Flightsfrom.com now shows Alaska Airlines goes back to daily 4x/day SMF-SAN starting March 19 with the last flight leaving SMF @ 5:30. A key difference is that none of these are shown as mainline for now and all of them on the E175.

This is a much better schedule for those of us who prefer to get our business done in one day if possible (albeit, a BUSY day) and shows that Alaska is not at all throwing in the towel on the business market on the segment. While mainline is nice, most of you know Alaska's (OO/QX) E175s carry 12 seats in F and this is one of the reasons I prefer Alaska on the route. Btw - this site shows a combined (with Southwest) 19 flights/day on this route each way M-F once Alaska returns to the daily 4x.

I hope this proves accurate. I just did a faux reso for March 19 on the Alaska site and it showed 4x w/last one at 5:30, so there is reason for confidence. Keeping fingers crossed...

Btw smflyer, I think your SMF-PAE call is on point.


As plausible SMF-PAE may be, a flight on a current city-pair would have to be sacrificed to add new service. Or UA would have to give up a PAE "slot" to give AS the additional slot. Or UA would add SEA-SMF, which would more than unlikely.
 
wedgetail737
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Re: Sacramento (SMF) Aviation Thread - 2020

Sun Jan 12, 2020 12:44 am

I noticed DL has started mainline service between SEA and SMF using the A220.
 
williaminsd
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Re: Sacramento (SMF) Aviation Thread - 2020

Sun Jan 12, 2020 1:13 am

SANFan wrote:
williaminsd wrote:
Flightsfrom.com now shows Alaska Airlines goes back to daily 4x/day SMF-SAN starting March 19 with the last flight leaving SMF @ 5:30. A key difference is that none of these are shown as mainline for now and all of them on the E175.

This is a much better schedule for those of us who prefer to get our business done in one day if possible (albeit, a BUSY day) and shows that Alaska is not at all throwing in the towel on the business market on the segment. While mainline is nice, most of you know Alaska's (OO/QX) E175s carry 12 seats in F and this is one of the reasons I prefer Alaska on the route. Btw - this site shows a combined (with Southwest) 19 flights/day on this route each way M-F once Alaska returns to the daily 4x.

I hope this proves accurate. I just did a faux reso for March 19 on the Alaska site and it showed 4x w/last one at 5:30, so there is reason for confidence. Keeping fingers crossed...

Btw smflyer, I think your SMF-PAE call is on point.

Sorry to spoil the party William but SMF-SAN has been 4x daily since April of 2019 and remains so up thru May 20 of this year; that's when it's cut to triple-daily, and as of now, it seems to remain that way until further notice. The skeds see time changes, with some being more spread out and better than others.

Hopefully AAG will receive customer feedback (read: complaints) about the cut in service -- hint hint -- and things might change. I certainly agree that less flights between the 2 cities is not the way for AAG to go! (The Network Planners in SEA have been known to listen to their customers and make appropriate changes to frequency and capacity on popular routes.)

bb


No brother, it cut back to 3x/day several days a week starting early this year (I'm not in a place where I can check the exact date), and goes back to 4x daily starting on the 3/19 mentioned. As you noted, the schedule is fluid, but when I booked my January travel in December, I only had 3x/day to choose from.
 
smflyer
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Re: Sacramento (SMF) Aviation Thread - 2020

Mon Jan 13, 2020 10:12 pm

wedgetail737 wrote:
I noticed DL has started mainline service between SEA and SMF using the A220.


yes according to the schedules DL is up gauging the route slowly over the next few months from all E175 to all A220 mainline service. Last day for E175/Delta connection service will be June 7. Noticed an A319 is in the mix as well.
 
MIflyer12
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Re: Sacramento (SMF) Aviation Thread - 2020

Tue Jan 14, 2020 2:33 am

Ah, remember when small-minded people (and Southwest Airlines) were complaining SMF's construction plans were too ambitious and would cut passenger counts due to costs?

https://crankyflier.com/2010/07/22/sacr ... -terminal/
 
smflyer
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Re: Sacramento (SMF) Aviation Thread - 2020

Wed Jan 15, 2020 1:37 am

MIflyer12 wrote:
Ah, remember when small-minded people (and Southwest Airlines) were complaining SMF's construction plans were too ambitious and would cut passenger counts due to costs?

https://crankyflier.com/2010/07/22/sacr ... -terminal/


I mean WN did kind of did follow though on their plans of cutting routes from SMF after the per enplanement fees went up to $17. Eventually the economy and demand outgrew WN's "punishment" and WN realized SMF was one if its best markets and decided to add capacity and routes like crazy over the recent past few years establishing it as the dominant carrier.

The other thing is that no one predicted Sacramento would be a hot growth market this past decade supported by spillover from the strong tech economy in the bay. Sacramento was otherwise supposed to be a slow/no growth city this past decade just as the article even mentioned. As some have pointed out in the 2019 thread, the airports traffic growth has nearly mimicked the population growth in Sacramento.

I hope this new decade brings SMF new gates, new garages, and new routes.
 
williaminsd
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Re: Sacramento (SMF) Aviation Thread - 2020

Wed Jan 15, 2020 5:34 am

Anna Aero lists the "USA’s top-50 unserved routes..."

SMF shows up four times...

#11 SMF-SAT 109 pdew
#13 SMF-PHL 102 pdew
#15 SMF-MCI 100 pdew
#48 SMF-BNA 78 pdew

https://www.anna.aero/2020/01/13/usas-t ... assengers/
 
ericm2031
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Re: Sacramento (SMF) Aviation Thread - 2020

Wed Jan 15, 2020 6:25 am

williaminsd wrote:
Anna Aero lists the "USA’s top-50 unserved routes..."

SMF shows up four times...

#11 SMF-SAT 109 pdew
#13 SMF-PHL 102 pdew
#15 SMF-MCI 100 pdew
#48 SMF-BNA 78 pdew

https://www.anna.aero/2020/01/13/usas-t ... assengers/


I'm not sure about PHL for WN (maybe a seasonal flight return for AA), but the other 3 are logical adds for the continued growth of WN in SMF. I'd expect an actual launch of BNA maybe once the MAX is back, MCI has been rumored to return for years...maybe after the new terminal is done there (rumored to be another new focus city for WN once that is up and running).

Would also like to see a return of MCO and additions of FLL/MIA by somebody.
 
Wingtips56
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Re: Sacramento (SMF) Aviation Thread - 2020

Wed Jan 15, 2020 7:00 am

I'm still surprised that AA isn't flying SMF-PHL, especially now that I see that PDEW. Combining that O/D with the connections available you'd think would be an easy fill. PHL connecting options, especially to Europe have expanded nicely since AA dropped the previous seasonal service.
What may be in play is how AA accounted for station performance back when I worked there, if the same still applies. Back then they dropped our full ORD flights in the 90's on the grounds they weren't profitable. It was explained that the SMF-xxx fares (over ORD) were prorated to station profitability based on percentage length of haul. With that logic, a SMF-Europe fare was credited mostly to the ORD-Europe portion, so the SMF-ORD revenue was broken down as unprofitable. (Worsened by one of the flights having originally been an ORD-RNO-SMF-ORD round-robin.)
While AA now serves DFW, LAX, PHX, ORD and CLT hubs, and all of them no doubt currently connecting the PHL traffic, are there enough single-connection markets that a PHL non-stop could better serve...i.e., generate enough additional traffic?
Worked for WestAir, Apollo Airways, Desert Pacific, Western, AirCal and American Airlines (Retired). Flight Memory: 181 airports, 92 airlines, 78 a/c types, 403 routes, 58 countries (by air), 6 continents. 1,119,414 passenger miles.

Home airport : CEC
 
smflyer
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Re: Sacramento (SMF) Aviation Thread - 2020

Thu Jan 16, 2020 11:55 pm

Wingtips56 wrote:
I'm still surprised that AA isn't flying SMF-PHL, especially now that I see that PDEW. Combining that O/D with the connections available you'd think would be an easy fill. PHL connecting options, especially to Europe have expanded nicely since AA dropped the previous seasonal service.
What may be in play is how AA accounted for station performance back when I worked there, if the same still applies. Back then they dropped our full ORD flights in the 90's on the grounds they weren't profitable. It was explained that the SMF-xxx fares (over ORD) were prorated to station profitability based on percentage length of haul. With that logic, a SMF-Europe fare was credited mostly to the ORD-Europe portion, so the SMF-ORD revenue was broken down as unprofitable. (Worsened by one of the flights having originally been an ORD-RNO-SMF-ORD round-robin.)
While AA now serves DFW, LAX, PHX, ORD and CLT hubs, and all of them no doubt currently connecting the PHL traffic, are there enough single-connection markets that a PHL non-stop could better serve...i.e., generate enough additional traffic?


Based on AA's routes out of PHL, they seem to only have 4 west coast destinations west of Denver excluding the PHX and LAX hubs. SMF, SJC, SNA, SLC are routes most notably missing out of the PHL hub. I'd say if AA were to expand PHL service to SMF they would probably announce some sort of west coast expansion out of Philly. The only thing that seems to be stopping them at this point appears to be the MAX issues, once again. I remember reading somewhere AA has pretty big plans for expansion after induction of MAX service, so hopefully SMF-PHL is something they are considering once the MAX issues are sorted with.
 
williaminsd
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Re: Sacramento (SMF) Aviation Thread - 2020

Fri Jan 17, 2020 3:50 pm

As has been reported elsewhere, JetBlue is cutting SMF-LGB effective April 29.

Does this foretell JetBlue closing SMF altogether? Is keeping a station open for one year-round redeye (JFK) and one seasonal redeye (BOS) worth it?

Maybe they'll actually increase service to the east coast to keep station open.

We can hope, but I'd be concerned if I were SMF admin...

https://www.usatoday.com/story/travel/a ... 491782002/
 
tphuang
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Re: Sacramento (SMF) Aviation Thread - 2020

Fri Jan 17, 2020 4:02 pm

williaminsd wrote:
As has been reported elsewhere, JetBlue is cutting SMF-LGB effective April 29.

Does this foretell JetBlue closing SMF altogether? Is keeping a station open for one year-round redeye (JFK) and one seasonal redeye (BOS) worth it?

Maybe they'll actually increase service to the east coast to keep station open.

We can hope, but I'd be concerned if I were SMF admin...

https://www.usatoday.com/story/travel/a ... 491782002/

There is no chance JetBlue cuts SMF in the near term. JFK-SMF is their top non-mint transcon route for much of the year. BOS-SMF is also profitable for the time it runs. OAK got cut because JFK/BOS-OAK both lose money.
 
williaminsd
Topic Author
Posts: 180
Joined: Thu Mar 22, 2018 3:52 pm

Re: Sacramento (SMF) Aviation Thread - 2020

Fri Jan 17, 2020 4:55 pm

tphuang wrote:
williaminsd wrote:
As has been reported elsewhere, JetBlue is cutting SMF-LGB effective April 29.

Does this foretell JetBlue closing SMF altogether? Is keeping a station open for one year-round redeye (JFK) and one seasonal redeye (BOS) worth it?

Maybe they'll actually increase service to the east coast to keep station open.

We can hope, but I'd be concerned if I were SMF admin...

https://www.usatoday.com/story/travel/a ... 491782002/

There is no chance JetBlue cuts SMF in the near term. JFK-SMF is their top non-mint transcon route for much of the year. BOS-SMF is also profitable for the time it runs. OAK got cut because JFK/BOS-OAK both lose money.


Good to know. Thank you sir!
 
flyfresno
Posts: 922
Joined: Tue May 02, 2006 6:18 am

Re: Sacramento (SMF) Aviation Thread - 2020

Fri Jan 17, 2020 5:30 pm

tphuang wrote:
williaminsd wrote:
As has been reported elsewhere, JetBlue is cutting SMF-LGB effective April 29.

Does this foretell JetBlue closing SMF altogether? Is keeping a station open for one year-round redeye (JFK) and one seasonal redeye (BOS) worth it?

Maybe they'll actually increase service to the east coast to keep station open.

We can hope, but I'd be concerned if I were SMF admin...

https://www.usatoday.com/story/travel/a ... 491782002/

There is no chance JetBlue cuts SMF in the near term. JFK-SMF is their top non-mint transcon route for much of the year. BOS-SMF is also profitable for the time it runs. OAK got cut because JFK/BOS-OAK both lose money.


Unless someone else sees this as an opportunity and adds JFK service...then I could see JetBlue reevaluating...
 
tphuang
Posts: 3702
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: Sacramento (SMF) Aviation Thread - 2020

Fri Jan 17, 2020 5:44 pm

flyfresno wrote:
tphuang wrote:
williaminsd wrote:
As has been reported elsewhere, JetBlue is cutting SMF-LGB effective April 29.

Does this foretell JetBlue closing SMF altogether? Is keeping a station open for one year-round redeye (JFK) and one seasonal redeye (BOS) worth it?

Maybe they'll actually increase service to the east coast to keep station open.

We can hope, but I'd be concerned if I were SMF admin...

https://www.usatoday.com/story/travel/a ... 491782002/

There is no chance JetBlue cuts SMF in the near term. JFK-SMF is their top non-mint transcon route for much of the year. BOS-SMF is also profitable for the time it runs. OAK got cut because JFK/BOS-OAK both lose money.


Unless someone else sees this as an opportunity and adds JFK service...then I could see JetBlue reevaluating...

Yes, buy delta typically find these routes to be too low yielding to enter.
 
dolphinflyer
Posts: 290
Joined: Sun May 08, 2005 9:57 pm

Re: Sacramento (SMF) Aviation Thread - 2020

Sat Jan 18, 2020 12:26 am

During December 2019, SMF handled 1,162,890 passengers, up 12.5% yoy (note the small late Thanksgiving bump!) on a 7.1% yoy seat capacity increase.

During CY 2019, SMF handled 13,172,840 passengers, marking a 9.3% increase yoy on a 10.6% seat capacity increase yoy.

Truly another stellar year for SMF with record-setting results! Kudos all around.

P.s. I’m not concerned about JetBlue closing SMF. Their transcon flights are performing very well.
 
smflyer
Posts: 179
Joined: Tue May 01, 2018 4:44 pm

Re: Sacramento (SMF) Aviation Thread - 2020

Sat Jan 18, 2020 2:39 am

dolphinflyer wrote:
During December 2019, SMF handled 1,162,890 passengers, up 12.5% yoy (note the small late Thanksgiving bump!) on a 7.1% yoy seat capacity increase.

During CY 2019, SMF handled 13,172,840 passengers, marking a 9.3% increase yoy on a 10.6% seat capacity increase yoy.

Truly another stellar year for SMF with record-setting results! Kudos all around.

P.s. I’m not concerned about JetBlue closing SMF. Their transcon flights are performing very well.


Excellent news about SMF! Hopefully JetBlue will consider SMF-FLL service as they've been successful with transcend out of SMF, WN appears to be at least somewhat successful on the MCO route, and that there is no other non-stop completion to the FLL/MIA area.

I can't help but note that over next few months we will lose 3 different routes: LGB, KOA, OGG. I can't remember the last time SMF lost service to a particular destination. Maybe F9 cancelling SMF-DEN circa 2013?
 
dolphinflyer
Posts: 290
Joined: Sun May 08, 2005 9:57 pm

Re: Sacramento (SMF) Aviation Thread - 2020

Sat Jan 18, 2020 5:11 am

smflyer wrote:
dolphinflyer wrote:
During December 2019, SMF handled 1,162,890 passengers, up 12.5% yoy (note the small late Thanksgiving bump!) on a 7.1% yoy seat

I can't help but note that over next few months we will lose 3 different routes: LGB, KOA, OGG. I can't remember the last time SMF lost service to a particular destination. Maybe F9 cancelling SMF-DEN circa 2013?


LGB will continue to be served nonstop by WN 4x/day. OGG will continue to be served nonstop daily by both HA and WN. The only nonstop route that SMF is “losing” is KOA and SMF is working hard to backfill that service.

Don’t be so “ the sky is falling down!” SMF has a lot to celebrate.

Also, looking at the next six months, Jan-Jun 2020, seat capacity is up another 8% yoy, so the near-term future continues to look bright.

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