williaminsd wrote:

Some observations from my first “lockdown” trip yesterday: Southwest, SAN-SMF-SAN. Prior to this, my last trip was March 11 to Fresno. Since then, I have cancelled eight trips into SMF and another half dozen to various points throughout the west.

My last itinerary to SMF was on Alaska, Feb 21-Feb 25, so it’s been well over two months since I’d flown into Sacramento.

What a difference…

First, and surprising no one, the San Diego’s Terminal 1 was nearly deserted. As I walked through, I counted precisely four people on my way to Pier 2. Of note, all T1 operations have been consolidated into P2, with P1 and Gates 1-2 completely closed with no access permitted.

Once through TSA (maybe 2 minutes – “delay” caused by social distancing requirements), I went up the escalator to find Pete’s Coffee and the KUSI Newsstand/sundries stores open. The main bar/restaurant was closed.

Two Southwest flights were scheduled, mine to Sacramento and next door a flight to Phoenix. I was a bit surprised as I expected maybe 10-12 people for my flight, but was greeted by 20-25 passengers at each gate. The mix was of all ages, including children and elderly, which I also found surprising. Everyone was wearing a mask and keeping their distance.

By the time my flight boarded, I counted 32 pax in the PHX holding area. I couldn't get a final count as we boarded first.

Southwest took passengers in groups of ten and social distancing was again implemented as we approached the agent. The gloved agent would not touch your ticket, nor did she assist anyone having difficulty with the phone-reader. It wasn’t a big deal…

Once on board I noted that the first four rows on our 737-700 were blocked-off using the tray tables and I grabbed a window seat in Row 5. The FAs asked everyone to alternate rows if possible and only allowed groups traveling together to sit in same row on either side.

The last time you would see a FA was just prior to take-off as they made their last-minute checks. There was no service, not even water. That’s not a complaint, just an observation.

I counted 39 passengers, which again, was significantly more than I expected. It was the quietest flight I’ve ever been on…

Returning from Sacramento was similar, the only difference I noted were fewer people wearing masks on the return. At SMF Terminal B, I saw the sundry shop open plus Dos Coyotes take-out. They had a few people in each, which is encouraging.

Southwest had five jets parked on ramp at SMF and Alaska had two 737s parked. There were three Southwest jets at gates when I got to airport: one for Las Vegas, one for Burbank and mine. Las Vegas flight left before I arrived at gate, but the Burbank flight looked to have about 30 people waiting. I counted 38 passengers on my return to San Diego. While I couldn’t see all of Terminal A, I counted 2 Delta jets at gates and one United.

I had the same flight experience as my outbound, with one notable exception. The FAs noted that San Diego County has a mask requirement and told passengers they would be happy to supply them with masks upon exiting the plane if needed. Southwest always steps-up!

While I prefer Alaska on this route, through May 17, Alaska only has one RT per day, and the timing is impossible for one-day business. Starting May 18, it goes to 2x/day and June 1, 3x/day. Southwest offers five flights/day at present with convenient times for business each way.

My next flight to SMF is scheduled for 6/2 on Alaska. This is a multi-day trip and taking it will depend on hotel availability. Hope we're all starting to get back to work by then.

Stay well everyone…

smflyer wrote:

HA suspending SMF-HNL and SMF-OGG after 3/26 until late May tentatively

Jetsgo wrote:

smflyer wrote:

HA suspending SMF-HNL and SMF-OGG after 3/26 until late May tentatively

Has there been an update on this yet? Scheduled to fly SMF-HNL-LIH in October and while it’s still five months out, I’m concerned HA will view SMF with relatively low priority for resumption of service. Wouldn’t mind switching to OAK-LIH if that comes back sooner. Time, and HA, will tell I guess.

Jetsgo wrote:

smflyer wrote:

HA suspending SMF-HNL and SMF-OGG after 3/26 until late May tentatively

Has there been an update on this yet? Scheduled to fly SMF-HNL-LIH in October and while it’s still five months out, I’m concerned HA will view SMF with relatively low priority for resumption of service. Wouldn’t mind switching to OAK-LIH if that comes back sooner. Time, and HA, will tell I guess.

ericm2031 wrote:

They could probably temporarily consolidate Ops to Terminal B if they wanted to cut some costs. With everything being common-use, this could probably be done pretty easily. Also could close some parking lots and cutback shuttles.

dolphinflyer wrote:

SMF handled 69k pax during April 2020, down 93.6% yoy on a seat capacity decrease of 38.3% yoy. SMF averaged 1,132 enplanements per day during the month. On a positive note, TSA throughput counts have averaged just over 2,000 per day during the past 7 days. If this trend continues, we could see a near doubling of the monthly passenger stats from April to May. Still poor statistics when compared with normal levels, but considering the circumstances, it would appear that recovery is already underway at SMF. Let's hope this continues into the summer and the rest of the year!

Jetsgo wrote:

dolphinflyer wrote:

SMF handled 69k pax during April 2020, down 93.6% yoy on a seat capacity decrease of 38.3% yoy. SMF averaged 1,132 enplanements per day during the month. On a positive note, TSA throughput counts have averaged just over 2,000 per day during the past 7 days. If this trend continues, we could see a near doubling of the monthly passenger stats from April to May. Still poor statistics when compared with normal levels, but considering the circumstances, it would appear that recovery is already underway at SMF. Let's hope this continues into the summer and the rest of the year!

Is there a breakdown by airline? I would imagine WN, UA, AA in that order?

williaminsd wrote:

New cargo facility opened at SMF on May 19.

Aeroterm, North America's largest owner of on-airport industrial land, which is also building cargo facilities at New York - JFK, Miami International, and Chicago - O'Hare, announced the 40,500 sq. ft. building with 17 loading docks opened on Tuesday.

Despite the state government-enforced "lockdown," Cargo traffic at SMF is actually up 3.4% in 2020 with April up over 10%. It opens fully leased. Here's a link:

https://www.prnewswire.com/news-release ... 61616.html

Some other good news, albeit not official. The Flightradar24 airport flight operations projection for the next seven days at SMF is up to 358. That's up from 326 in the April 27 projection, or up nearly 10% in just over three weeks. Number one market at present is SMF-SEA with 51 flights scheduled in the next seven days. Number of cities served is also up five to 22. Further evidence that we reached bottom in April and traffic is steadily climbing back up.

My next flight into SMF remains June 2. I'll be very interested to read the first June ops projections.

Stay well everyone...

smflyer wrote:

2020 Master Plan for SMF has just been released for public review. Did a quick skim of it and looks like the most notable needs at the airport by the time the airport reaches about 16mil passengers per year include: more RON parking for aircraft, a new consolidated rental car facility which would be built as a parking garage style facility just south of the existing A garage and appears to have walkway bridges to each of the terminals, a new airside concourse with 6 gates connected to terminal B via a walkway, new terminal B parking garage, and more economy parking.

I didn't read through everything, but I found it odd they want to create a whole new concourse with 6 gates rather than just expand the current concourse B which from what I know can already be expanded.

https://sacramento.aero/scas/about/planning_design

jplatts wrote:

williaminsd wrote:

Southwest to BNA and the return of MCO. Maybe MCI…

I agree about WN possibly re-adding SMF-BNA, SMF-MCO, and SMF-MCI nonstop service. There are also a few other nonstop routes that could get added by WN out of SMF such as SMF-ATL, SMF-FLL, SMF-KOA, and SMF-SAT.

While DL already serves ATL nonstop from SMF, I mentioned WN possibly adding SMF-ATL nonstop service with WN recently adding ATL-CHS/MEM/ORF/ECP nonstop service, with SMF being one of the largest WN stations that WN doesn't currently serve nonstop from ATL, and with WN being able to offer 1-stop connections to a few additional destinations such as GSP, RIC, and PBI from SMF if WN adds SMF-ATL nonstop service.

SJC is also the only WN station larger than SMF that doesn't already have nonstop service to ATL on WN, but the lack of WN SJC-ATL nonstop service is less of an issue with WN already serving ATL nonstop from OAK in the San Francisco Bay Area.

williaminsd wrote:

Remarkable news posted in the Southwest fleet thread. December 2020 schedule published and SMF checks in with 85 flights/day M-F.

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1437991&p=22245615&hilit=Smf#p22245615

This includes a 9:20am departure for Honolulu and an 8:35am departure for Maui. Nothing for Cabo shown.

All in all, pretty strong statement by Southwest and further confidence in our economy reopening this year.

williaminsd wrote:

Also noted that JetBlue returns to SMF/JFK on July 1 with 1x/week departing at 12:45pm and arriving from JFK at 11:23am. Goes to 2x/week July 20. Equipment is an A320. Fares start at (gulp!), $764 OW...

Not sure if this has been noted before here or elsewhere, but according to website, AeroMexico returns to SMF July 1 with 2 daily flights to Guadalajara. Departs SMF @ 9:41pm and 11:20pm; arrives from GDL @ 8:10pm and 9:40pm (interesting 1 minute overlap there). Both flights are 737-800s.

More good news for SMF as the economy slowly reopens after the state-imposed economic lockdown...

williaminsd wrote:

Update to the resumed Volaris flight: it's a bit complicated... First flight is tomorrow night, then nothing until 6/7. That flight departs in afternoon until 6/17, when it goes to a late evening departure, finally settling in @ 11:36pm. Then on 7/7, the real fun begins...

Tuesdays through mid-August, three departures, all between 10:10pm and 1:05am. On Fridays through at least end of October, two departures. In mid-August, Tuesdays go 2x/day.

Rest of week, 1x/day. Late Summer early Fall fares as low as $41!

We'll see how long this holds, but for now, I believe this is the most aggressive SMF-GDL schedule ever. On Tuesdays between Volaris and AeroMexico, there will be five flights from SMF to GDL, and four flights on Fridays.

This is all according to their respective websites as of this evening. That is a LOT of pent-up demand!

Btw - the Flightradar 24 seven-day outlook is up to 384, up from 326 flights in late April...

dolphinflyer wrote:

SMF-GDL is a strong VFR (visit friends/relatives) market. High seasons for VFR traffic are Easter/Holy Week, Summer vacation and Christmas/New Years.

smflyer wrote:

dolphinflyer wrote:

SMF-GDL is a strong VFR (visit friends/relatives) market. High seasons for VFR traffic are Easter/Holy Week, Summer vacation and Christmas/New Years.

Ahh that makes sense. Most kids are going to be out of school going into the summer and possibly fall and then you combine that with people starting to get less scared about COVID and going out more with things opening up, I can see why the Mexican carriers would be betting on a boom in VFR traffic.

In other news, anyone notice that DL is fly a A220 3x daily on SMF-SLC route right now? I still want to try that plane, but haven't gotten a chance yet.

williaminsd wrote:

More news from Volaris... 2x/week service SMF-BJX (Leon) popped-up on their site tonight. Flight 253 leaves SMF @1:10am and arrives BJX at 6:57am. Service is Wed/Fri starting July 1 on A320 aircraft. Inbound on Volaris 252 arrives at 11:54pm.

Saw this when I went to confirm the SMF-GDL service. That's still there too.

Can SMF even process that many international departures/arrivals in such a short period of time?

Starting to wonder if this is some kind of glitch on website. I see no "official" announcement.

Guess we'll have to wait for July...

smflyer wrote:

williaminsd wrote:

More news from Volaris... 2x/week service SMF-BJX (Leon) popped-up on their site tonight. Flight 253 leaves SMF @1:10am and arrives BJX at 6:57am. Service is Wed/Fri starting July 1 on A320 aircraft. Inbound on Volaris 252 arrives at 11:54pm.

Saw this when I went to confirm the SMF-GDL service. That's still there too.

Can SMF even process that many international departures/arrivals in such a short period of time?

Starting to wonder if this is some kind of glitch on website. I see no "official" announcement.

Guess we'll have to wait for July...

So let me get this straight, this is the new mexico service:
Sun Y4 1xGDL, AM 2xGDL
Mon Y4 1xGDL, AM 2xGDL
Tue Y4 3xGDL, AM 2xGDL
Wed Y4 1xGDL 1xBJX, AM 2xGDL
Thu Y4 1xGDL, AM 2xGDL
Fri Y4 2xGDL 1xBJX, AM 2xGDL
Sat Y4 1xGDL, AM 2xGDL

From what I understand from the airport's planning documents that we're recently released, the current customs processing capability is 400 passengers/hr which would be equivalent to 2 flights an hour. Y4 has their flights spaced an hour and AM also has their flights spaced by an hour. So it looks like they are running at the capacity of what the terminal can handle at the moment as long as no more than 2 planes arrive every hour. The planning documents note that the customs facility can be expanded to handle 800 passengers an hour and i think dolphinflyer also noted that gates B4 and B6 can be converted to international gates without too much cost.

Only thing is, im not a big fan of that frosted glass they use in the international capable gates since as an AvGeek i like to see the outside and hope they don't expand the frosted glass all the way to the B4. this would mean all of the north part of the airport operations would be blocked off from view if you are in that part of the concourse. I've noticed that in other countries they simply use regular glass to separate the lounge area from the international arrival corridor. If SMF decides to expand the intl capable gates, i hope they switch to regular clear glass so that airfield views aren't obstructed.

smflyer wrote:

For anyone travelling lately or is going to travel soon, how full are your first class and extra space economy seats?

I'm going to be on 4 DL flights later this month starting June 9 and pretty much every flight has its first class full or nearly full and the comfort+ section have 1-2 seats remaining. Meanwhile the regular economy seating appears to be a ghost town. I was hoping to score some good upgrades, but it appears that maybe business travel is already rebounding? what are you guys seeing on your future itineraries and recent flights if you have been on one. I highly doubt these seats are filled by stragglers who booked their seats pre-Covid since the refund/cancellation policy has been so lax the last few months.

I thougt id post this on this forum since im only referring to SMF flights, not systemwide traffic.

williaminsd wrote:

July is going to be a big month for the reopening of SMF. I hope all these hold!

ericm2031 wrote:

williaminsd wrote:

July is going to be a big month for the reopening of SMF. I hope all these hold!

AA, AS, and UA haven’t published their July schedules yet, so if you are looking at theirs, it’s still showing pre-COVID. UA will be up Saturday and AA on Sunday.

Jshank83 wrote:

smflyer wrote:

For anyone travelling lately or is going to travel soon, how full are your first class and extra space economy seats?

I'm going to be on 4 DL flights later this month starting June 9 and pretty much every flight has its first class full or nearly full and the comfort+ section have 1-2 seats remaining. Meanwhile the regular economy seating appears to be a ghost town. I was hoping to score some good upgrades, but it appears that maybe business travel is already rebounding? what are you guys seeing on your future itineraries and recent flights if you have been on one. I highly doubt these seats are filled by stragglers who booked their seats pre-Covid since the refund/cancellation policy has been so lax the last few months.

I thougt id post this on this forum since im only referring to SMF flights, not systemwide traffic.

I would guess one reason the number available are low is because they are blocking out seats for distancing. So that means less available from the start.

williaminsd wrote:

Interesting that SMF, at 417, has more ops than both OAK and SJC, at least for now.

KLMatSJC wrote:

williaminsd wrote:

Interesting that SMF, at 417, has more ops than both OAK and SJC, at least for now.

Not too surprising they are ahead of SJC. SJC only has 3 cargo flights per day and quite a few airlines have consolidated a lot of their operation at SFO.

AAflyguy wrote:

KLMatSJC wrote:

williaminsd wrote:

Interesting that SMF, at 417, has more ops than both OAK and SJC, at least for now.

Not too surprising they are ahead of SJC. SJC only has 3 cargo flights per day and quite a few airlines have consolidated a lot of their operation at SFO.

What is interesting to me is that OAK is consistently out-boarding SJC, by hundreds of passengers daily, yet SJC holds on to more scheduled service and keeps its legacy carriers flying to multiple hubs. Not saying more passengers translates into better financial performance, but still an important and interesting metric when SJC was solidly ahead of OAK pre-COVID and had been pulling away and widening the gap for 2 years.

Hope SMF continues to roar its way back throughout the summer season. Things look promising with the schedule build discussed here.

AAflyguy

williaminsd wrote:

If I'm reading the United July schedule release correctly, SMF doubles it's daily total from three to six with a morning flight to Chicago and afternoon flights to LAX and SFO. Existing two flights to Denver and morning to SFO remain unchanged.

With yesterday's spectacular jobs report, they may be underestimating demand and jeopardize opportunity to capture market share...

smflyer wrote:

williaminsd wrote:

If I'm reading the United July schedule release correctly, SMF doubles it's daily total from three to six with a morning flight to Chicago and afternoon flights to LAX and SFO. Existing two flights to Denver and morning to SFO remain unchanged.

With yesterday's spectacular jobs report, they may be underestimating demand and jeopardize opportunity to capture market share...

bad news for you williaminsd, looks like AS is dropping SAN-SMF in August according to the latest OAG forum.

williaminsd wrote:

smflyer wrote:

williaminsd wrote:

If I'm reading the United July schedule release correctly, SMF doubles it's daily total from three to six with a morning flight to Chicago and afternoon flights to LAX and SFO. Existing two flights to Denver and morning to SFO remain unchanged.

With yesterday's spectacular jobs report, they may be underestimating demand and jeopardize opportunity to capture market share...

bad news for you williaminsd, looks like AS is dropping SAN-SMF in August according to the latest OAG forum.

I saw that. While I prefer Alaska, Southwest flies multiple frequencies daily and by December will be back up to 11 daily. So yeah, I'll miss seat selection, free cocktails up front, and FAs i've gotten to know over the years, but I'll sure like the frequencies and my bags will still fly free on Southwest. Will it be a change? Yes. Bad news? Meh...

What is disconcerting to me is that Alaska let Southwest run it out of the market and that this reflects a timid approach on the part of upper-management as we come out of the state-imposed economic shut-down. That's how you lose market share.

The economy didn't plummet because it was fundamentally unsound, the economic destruction was caused by the state forcing it to shutdown. This isn't 2008.

While the May jobs report only represents one month and does not a trend make, the so-called experts were confidently projecting another 7-8 million job losses and instead, the economy added 2.5 million, so they were only off by 10,000,000 jobs or so...

Had we lost what was projected, maybe this makes some sense. But an airline doesn't make money by keeping planes grounded. Just a year ago, this segment was 4x/day including mainline. Does Alaska really believe that should the economy come back to anywhere near pre-lockdown levels in Q4 2020/Q1 2021, this won't again be viable?

I am not typically one to question route planning departments, but just look at the difference between Alaska and Southwest management as we begin our long crawl back. Southwest up to near full 2019 capacity by December; Alaska limping along, seemingly afraid of its own shadow.

This management attitude has little direct impact on me, other than limit my ability to acquire milage and further erode any loyalty to Alaska, but I'd have to think it has a significant impact on stockholders.

An airline that continues to pull out of markets shows a pessimism that airline travel has not yet bottomed-out and signals that the present stock price is likely to stay. Why would you invest now if the airline clearly sees things not getting better at least though next March?

Southwest, which has proven fairly prescient, sees the same data, data seemingly backed by recent jobs numbers, and comes roaring back.

We all know that setbacks are a part of life and the more important factor for success is what you do with those setbacks. The difference between Southwest and Alaska here is astounding.

Troubling times at Alaska. Much of it appears self-inflicted.

We'll see how it plays out. I better start getting ready for my return to T1 in San Diego.

Ugh... now that IS bad news...

williaminsd wrote:

This management attitude has little direct impact on me, other than limit my ability to acquire milage and further erode any loyalty to Alaska, but I'd have to think it has a significant impact on stockholders.

LAXBUR wrote:

williaminsd wrote:

This management attitude has little direct impact on me, other than limit my ability to acquire milage and further erode any loyalty to Alaska, but I'd have to think it has a significant impact on stockholders.

Have you checked Alaska’s stock right now?

https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/06/ ... slows.aspx

williaminsd wrote:

LAXBUR wrote:

williaminsd wrote:

This management attitude has little direct impact on me, other than limit my ability to acquire milage and further erode any loyalty to Alaska, but I'd have to think it has a significant impact on stockholders.

Have you checked Alaska’s stock right now?

https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/06/ ... slows.aspx

Congratulations to Alaska, and cutting the burn-rate is both admirable and necessary, but with the recent jobs numbers, every airline stock is up now.

So the present stock price is great if you're a day trader, if Alaska is part of your long-term portfolio, we'll see.

If Alaska wants to retreat to its traditional home in the PNW, that's fine. Big fish, small pond has its advantages. But long term value requires growth, not retreat. The PNW provides limited opportunity for long-term growth which is why Alaska sought to expand away from it in the first place. This is moving backwards...

smflyer wrote:

williaminsd wrote:

LAXBUR wrote:

Have you checked Alaska’s stock right now?

https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/06/ ... slows.aspx

Congratulations to Alaska, and cutting the burn-rate is both admirable and necessary, but with the recent jobs numbers, every airline stock is up now.

So the present stock price is great if you're a day trader, if Alaska is part of your long-term portfolio, we'll see.

If Alaska wants to retreat to its traditional home in the PNW, that's fine. Big fish, small pond has its advantages. But long term value requires growth, not retreat. The PNW provides limited opportunity for long-term growth which is why Alaska sought to expand away from it in the first place. This is moving backwards...

I agree with you that AS is acting very timid in this environment when they should be expecting strong recovery to the market. I feel like AS management is too stuck in its pre-COVID "algorithm" of managing their business. Unfortunately they aren't seeing past the short term horizon on their business and this is evidenced from their pre-COVID route planning as well. They were quick to drop OGG days after WN announced OGG, dropped KOA only a little over a year after serving it (flew this route once and it was full both ways on a tuesday), upgauged SAN to mainline only to quickly retreat. The only place they have added consistent capacity is to SEA. I'm not saying they're a poorly run airline, but they seem to only run well when times are good. In crisis they seem to be putting their tail between their legs and running off. WN will continue to grow CA and take market share and AS retracts to SEA/PDX and hopes DL doesn't give off much of a fight. There goes our competition and before you know it SMF-SAN is back to $189 OW. I remember not too long ago when WN had monopoly on LAS and tickets were $150-200 OW. If DL retracts in SEA, my bets are AS hastens up cutting CA routes to get the low hanging fruit in SEA. It took them years and billions in purchasing another airline to build up CA only to squander it away. They have a relatively young fleet with 60 or so MAX/NEOs coming aboard in the near future, if they retract it will be difficult for them to re-take their market share when/if they decide on expanding CA again. If they continue to be timid, i would expect cancellation of the NEOs and return to lessor of the Airbus' at end of lease term. If they want to be aggressive, then they'll take delivery and extend leases on their pre-existing aircraft.

gmcc wrote:

smflyer wrote:

williaminsd wrote:

Congratulations to Alaska, and cutting the burn-rate is both admirable and necessary, but with the recent jobs numbers, every airline stock is up now.

So the present stock price is great if you're a day trader, if Alaska is part of your long-term portfolio, we'll see.

If Alaska wants to retreat to its traditional home in the PNW, that's fine. Big fish, small pond has its advantages. But long term value requires growth, not retreat. The PNW provides limited opportunity for long-term growth which is why Alaska sought to expand away from it in the first place. This is moving backwards...

I agree with you that AS is acting very timid in this environment when they should be expecting strong recovery to the market. I feel like AS management is too stuck in its pre-COVID "algorithm" of managing their business. Unfortunately they aren't seeing past the short term horizon on their business and this is evidenced from their pre-COVID route planning as well. They were quick to drop OGG days after WN announced OGG, dropped KOA only a little over a year after serving it (flew this route once and it was full both ways on a tuesday), upgauged SAN to mainline only to quickly retreat. The only place they have added consistent capacity is to SEA. I'm not saying they're a poorly run airline, but they seem to only run well when times are good. In crisis they seem to be putting their tail between their legs and running off. WN will continue to grow CA and take market share and AS retracts to SEA/PDX and hopes DL doesn't give off much of a fight. There goes our competition and before you know it SMF-SAN is back to $189 OW. I remember not too long ago when WN had monopoly on LAS and tickets were $150-200 OW. If DL retracts in SEA, my bets are AS hastens up cutting CA routes to get the low hanging fruit in SEA. It took them years and billions in purchasing another airline to build up CA only to squander it away. They have a relatively young fleet with 60 or so MAX/NEOs coming aboard in the near future, if they retract it will be difficult for them to re-take their market share when/if they decide on expanding CA again. If they continue to be timid, i would expect cancellation of the NEOs and return to lessor of the Airbus' at end of lease term. If they want to be aggressive, then they'll take delivery and extend leases on their pre-existing aircraft.

AS pre covid was willing to lose a little money on a route. Post covid their attitude is different. Management seems very committed to a zero cash burn rate by the end of the year. For AS it comes down to does X route make money in this environment. If not it is gone unless it touches SEA. As to all the flight through SEA the port assigns gates based on seat count so the only way to stop DL from growing is to add as much as you can.

williaminsd wrote:

gmcc wrote:

smflyer wrote:

I agree with you that AS is acting very timid in this environment when they should be expecting strong recovery to the market. I feel like AS management is too stuck in its pre-COVID "algorithm" of managing their business. Unfortunately they aren't seeing past the short term horizon on their business and this is evidenced from their pre-COVID route planning as well. They were quick to drop OGG days after WN announced OGG, dropped KOA only a little over a year after serving it (flew this route once and it was full both ways on a tuesday), upgauged SAN to mainline only to quickly retreat. The only place they have added consistent capacity is to SEA. I'm not saying they're a poorly run airline, but they seem to only run well when times are good. In crisis they seem to be putting their tail between their legs and running off. WN will continue to grow CA and take market share and AS retracts to SEA/PDX and hopes DL doesn't give off much of a fight. There goes our competition and before you know it SMF-SAN is back to $189 OW. I remember not too long ago when WN had monopoly on LAS and tickets were $150-200 OW. If DL retracts in SEA, my bets are AS hastens up cutting CA routes to get the low hanging fruit in SEA. It took them years and billions in purchasing another airline to build up CA only to squander it away. They have a relatively young fleet with 60 or so MAX/NEOs coming aboard in the near future, if they retract it will be difficult for them to re-take their market share when/if they decide on expanding CA again. If they continue to be timid, i would expect cancellation of the NEOs and return to lessor of the Airbus' at end of lease term. If they want to be aggressive, then they'll take delivery and extend leases on their pre-existing aircraft.

AS pre covid was willing to lose a little money on a route. Post covid their attitude is different. Management seems very committed to a zero cash burn rate by the end of the year. For AS it comes down to does X route make money in this environment. If not it is gone unless it touches SEA. As to all the flight through SEA the port assigns gates based on seat count so the only way to stop DL from growing is to add as much as you can.

As noted, this approach makes more sense if the "experts" had been anywhere close to correct with covid-related projections of over 2,000,000 Americans dead or over 20% unemployed in May. But these "experts" were not only wrong, but spectacularly so.

This retreat seems to reflect a business plan based on those horrific projections, not the reality we're seeing today.

smflyer wrote:

There goes our competition and before you know it SMF-SAN is back to $189 OW. I remember not too long ago when WN had monopoly on LAS and tickets were $150-200 OW.