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smflyer
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Re: Sacramento (SMF) Aviation Thread - 2020

Sun May 10, 2020 2:39 pm

williaminsd wrote:
Some observations from my first “lockdown” trip yesterday: Southwest, SAN-SMF-SAN. Prior to this, my last trip was March 11 to Fresno. Since then, I have cancelled eight trips into SMF and another half dozen to various points throughout the west.

My last itinerary to SMF was on Alaska, Feb 21-Feb 25, so it’s been well over two months since I’d flown into Sacramento.

What a difference…

First, and surprising no one, the San Diego’s Terminal 1 was nearly deserted. As I walked through, I counted precisely four people on my way to Pier 2. Of note, all T1 operations have been consolidated into P2, with P1 and Gates 1-2 completely closed with no access permitted.

Once through TSA (maybe 2 minutes – “delay” caused by social distancing requirements), I went up the escalator to find Pete’s Coffee and the KUSI Newsstand/sundries stores open. The main bar/restaurant was closed.

Two Southwest flights were scheduled, mine to Sacramento and next door a flight to Phoenix. I was a bit surprised as I expected maybe 10-12 people for my flight, but was greeted by 20-25 passengers at each gate. The mix was of all ages, including children and elderly, which I also found surprising. Everyone was wearing a mask and keeping their distance.

By the time my flight boarded, I counted 32 pax in the PHX holding area. I couldn't get a final count as we boarded first.

Southwest took passengers in groups of ten and social distancing was again implemented as we approached the agent. The gloved agent would not touch your ticket, nor did she assist anyone having difficulty with the phone-reader. It wasn’t a big deal…

Once on board I noted that the first four rows on our 737-700 were blocked-off using the tray tables and I grabbed a window seat in Row 5. The FAs asked everyone to alternate rows if possible and only allowed groups traveling together to sit in same row on either side.

The last time you would see a FA was just prior to take-off as they made their last-minute checks. There was no service, not even water. That’s not a complaint, just an observation.

I counted 39 passengers, which again, was significantly more than I expected. It was the quietest flight I’ve ever been on…

Returning from Sacramento was similar, the only difference I noted were fewer people wearing masks on the return. At SMF Terminal B, I saw the sundry shop open plus Dos Coyotes take-out. They had a few people in each, which is encouraging.

Southwest had five jets parked on ramp at SMF and Alaska had two 737s parked. There were three Southwest jets at gates when I got to airport: one for Las Vegas, one for Burbank and mine. Las Vegas flight left before I arrived at gate, but the Burbank flight looked to have about 30 people waiting. I counted 38 passengers on my return to San Diego. While I couldn’t see all of Terminal A, I counted 2 Delta jets at gates and one United.

I had the same flight experience as my outbound, with one notable exception. The FAs noted that San Diego County has a mask requirement and told passengers they would be happy to supply them with masks upon exiting the plane if needed. Southwest always steps-up!

While I prefer Alaska on this route, through May 17, Alaska only has one RT per day, and the timing is impossible for one-day business. Starting May 18, it goes to 2x/day and June 1, 3x/day. Southwest offers five flights/day at present with convenient times for business each way.

My next flight to SMF is scheduled for 6/2 on Alaska. This is a multi-day trip and taking it will depend on hotel availability. Hope we're all starting to get back to work by then.

Stay well everyone…


Thanks for the report williaminsd. I haven't been on a flight since mid February and have been wondering what its like in the airport and on flights these last few weeks. Hoping this virus goes away sooner than later. April numbers should be coming out soon, so I wonder how bad it will be for the first full month of quarantine.
 
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Jetsgo
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Re: Sacramento (SMF) Aviation Thread - 2020

Mon May 11, 2020 6:47 pm

smflyer wrote:
HA suspending SMF-HNL and SMF-OGG after 3/26 until late May tentatively


Has there been an update on this yet? Scheduled to fly SMF-HNL-LIH in October and while it’s still five months out, I’m concerned HA will view SMF with relatively low priority for resumption of service. Wouldn’t mind switching to OAK-LIH if that comes back sooner. Time, and HA, will tell I guess.
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smflyer
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Re: Sacramento (SMF) Aviation Thread - 2020

Mon May 11, 2020 7:33 pm

Jetsgo wrote:
smflyer wrote:
HA suspending SMF-HNL and SMF-OGG after 3/26 until late May tentatively


Has there been an update on this yet? Scheduled to fly SMF-HNL-LIH in October and while it’s still five months out, I’m concerned HA will view SMF with relatively low priority for resumption of service. Wouldn’t mind switching to OAK-LIH if that comes back sooner. Time, and HA, will tell I guess.


I haven't seen any update on this, but I think its more of a factor of when the state of Hawaii will let flights to the mainland resume. So far HA still has those late May flights out of SMF as bookable, but that may change. If anything, I would put my bets on HA at least maintaining SMF-HNL service and dropping off OGG if demand doesn't pick up fast enough, so I think you should be safe. The other thing is that they try to hold off on cancellations as much as possible in the hopes you cancel the trip instead so they don't have to refund you cash, so I would hold onto the itinerary as long as possible.
 
williaminsd
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Re: Sacramento (SMF) Aviation Thread - 2020

Mon May 11, 2020 8:07 pm

Article in the Bee re how SMF is adapting to the COVID-related plunge in traffic. Estimates show counts off by up to 95%. April figures going to be very interesting. If that figure holds for Sacramento, we can expect April pax counts in the 50,000-60,000 range! The last time Sacramento had a monthly pax count below 60,000 was in May 1966. Airport received nearly $50 million in emergency federal funds, but that is expected to only cover three months of ops. Story claims that domestic flights are averaging 17 passengers each across the nation, but methodology is not explained. As noted previously, my experience from last Friday had passenger counts more than double that in each direction.

https://www.sacbee.com/news/local/trans ... 69526.html

PS - You are welcome Smflyer.
 
dolphinflyer
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Re: Sacramento (SMF) Aviation Thread - 2020

Mon May 11, 2020 11:51 pm

Jetsgo wrote:
smflyer wrote:
HA suspending SMF-HNL and SMF-OGG after 3/26 until late May tentatively


Has there been an update on this yet? Scheduled to fly SMF-HNL-LIH in October and while it’s still five months out, I’m concerned HA will view SMF with relatively low priority for resumption of service. Wouldn’t mind switching to OAK-LIH if that comes back sooner. Time, and HA, will tell I guess.


WN has confirmed resumption of HNL n/s service (June 7) and OGG (June 28) from SMF. Hawaiian won't allow WN to operate those two routes as monopolies. I'm sure that the competitive pressure will compel HA to relaunch SMF services sometime in June, pending the lifting of the Hawaiian Governor's mandatory 14-day quarantine for visitors and residents. My understanding is that this is supposed to be rescinded effective June 1. Your Oct trip to LIH should be fine.
 
ericm2031
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Re: Sacramento (SMF) Aviation Thread - 2020

Tue May 12, 2020 4:10 am

They could probably temporarily consolidate Ops to Terminal B if they wanted to cut some costs. With everything being common-use, this could probably be done pretty easily. Also could close some parking lots and cutback shuttles.
 
smflyer
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Re: Sacramento (SMF) Aviation Thread - 2020

Wed May 13, 2020 1:56 am

ericm2031 wrote:
They could probably temporarily consolidate Ops to Terminal B if they wanted to cut some costs. With everything being common-use, this could probably be done pretty easily. Also could close some parking lots and cutback shuttles.


I believe both economy lots are currently closed. I was able to take a look on daily satellite imagery I have access to and it appears there are quite a few cars in the west economy lot and in the south end of the daily lot. I would assume those are all rental cars being stored as the rental facility looks jam packed with cars. Garage A shows no cars on the roof, and hourly B appears mostly empty. Other things notable on imagery from 5/10 show 3 WN planes at the remote stands west of B, 2 AS? planes south of the east B pier.
 
dolphinflyer
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Re: Sacramento (SMF) Aviation Thread - 2020

Wed May 13, 2020 11:01 pm

SMF handled 69k pax during April 2020, down 93.6% yoy on a seat capacity decrease of 38.3% yoy. SMF averaged 1,132 enplanements per day during the month. On a positive note, TSA throughput counts have averaged just over 2,000 per day during the past 7 days. If this trend continues, we could see a near doubling of the monthly passenger stats from April to May. Still poor statistics when compared with normal levels, but considering the circumstances, it would appear that recovery is already underway at SMF. Let's hope this continues into the summer and the rest of the year!
 
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Jetsgo
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Re: Sacramento (SMF) Aviation Thread - 2020

Fri May 15, 2020 12:00 am

dolphinflyer wrote:
SMF handled 69k pax during April 2020, down 93.6% yoy on a seat capacity decrease of 38.3% yoy. SMF averaged 1,132 enplanements per day during the month. On a positive note, TSA throughput counts have averaged just over 2,000 per day during the past 7 days. If this trend continues, we could see a near doubling of the monthly passenger stats from April to May. Still poor statistics when compared with normal levels, but considering the circumstances, it would appear that recovery is already underway at SMF. Let's hope this continues into the summer and the rest of the year!


Is there a breakdown by airline? I would imagine WN, UA, AA in that order?
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smflyer
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Re: Sacramento (SMF) Aviation Thread - 2020

Fri May 15, 2020 12:26 am

Jetsgo wrote:
dolphinflyer wrote:
SMF handled 69k pax during April 2020, down 93.6% yoy on a seat capacity decrease of 38.3% yoy. SMF averaged 1,132 enplanements per day during the month. On a positive note, TSA throughput counts have averaged just over 2,000 per day during the past 7 days. If this trend continues, we could see a near doubling of the monthly passenger stats from April to May. Still poor statistics when compared with normal levels, but considering the circumstances, it would appear that recovery is already underway at SMF. Let's hope this continues into the summer and the rest of the year!


Is there a breakdown by airline? I would imagine WN, UA, AA in that order?


Yes, you can see the monthly passenger report on the airport's website thats updated once a month: sacramento.aero/scas/about/reports

Looks like April report just came out and here is the breakdown for you and others (in number of passengers enplaned):
WN 17,308
UA 1694 + 616 regional
AA 5310 + 17 regional
DL 3279 + 1669 regional
AS 254 + 930 (QX) + 1124 regional
AC, SY, HA, LF to note carried no passengers in April as they all remain completely suspended.
 
williaminsd
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Re: Sacramento (SMF) Aviation Thread - 2020

Thu May 21, 2020 6:58 pm

New cargo facility opened at SMF on May 19.

Aeroterm, North America's largest owner of on-airport industrial land, which is also building cargo facilities at New York - JFK, Miami International, and Chicago - O'Hare, announced the 40,500 sq. ft. building with 17 loading docks opened on Tuesday.

Despite the state government-enforced "lockdown," Cargo traffic at SMF is actually up 3.4% in 2020 with April up over 10%. It opens fully leased. Here's a link:

https://www.prnewswire.com/news-release ... 61616.html

Some other good news, albeit not official. The Flightradar24 airport flight operations projection for the next seven days at SMF is up to 358. That's up from 326 in the April 27 projection, or up nearly 10% in just over three weeks. Number one market at present is SMF-SEA with 51 flights scheduled in the next seven days. Number of cities served is also up five to 22. Further evidence that we reached bottom in April and traffic is steadily climbing back up.

My next flight into SMF remains June 2. I'll be very interested to read the first June ops projections.

Stay well everyone...
 
smflyer
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Re: Sacramento (SMF) Aviation Thread - 2020

Fri May 22, 2020 6:21 pm

williaminsd wrote:
New cargo facility opened at SMF on May 19.

Aeroterm, North America's largest owner of on-airport industrial land, which is also building cargo facilities at New York - JFK, Miami International, and Chicago - O'Hare, announced the 40,500 sq. ft. building with 17 loading docks opened on Tuesday.

Despite the state government-enforced "lockdown," Cargo traffic at SMF is actually up 3.4% in 2020 with April up over 10%. It opens fully leased. Here's a link:

https://www.prnewswire.com/news-release ... 61616.html

Some other good news, albeit not official. The Flightradar24 airport flight operations projection for the next seven days at SMF is up to 358. That's up from 326 in the April 27 projection, or up nearly 10% in just over three weeks. Number one market at present is SMF-SEA with 51 flights scheduled in the next seven days. Number of cities served is also up five to 22. Further evidence that we reached bottom in April and traffic is steadily climbing back up.

My next flight into SMF remains June 2. I'll be very interested to read the first June ops projections.

Stay well everyone...


Well thats good news that the airport approved of this project. I remember reading not too long ago that the airport director (Cindy Nichols?) wanted to move all cargo operations to Mather to reduce congestion or whatever the reasoning was. That made no sense as Amazon has just built the new warehouse right next to the airport. So with this new cargo facility, it hopefully means continued cargo growth and operations at SMF for a long time. Its nice for us aviation enthusiasts to see those MD-11s and 767s from fedex and amazon parked on the tarmac. I hoped UPS would've moved to SMF, but they recently upgraded their facilities at MHR and the county added and ILS system to the runway to support their operations, so that looks like a definite no.

Anyone notice that there's a second Amazon like warehouse going up just north of the Amazon facility, I read in the Sacramento business Journal that its rumored to be WalMart as the main tenant there for their e-commerce business. I wonder if that will increase cargo traffic even more.

Anyways, I'll have my first flight out of SMF since the pandemic on June 9 so that will be an interesting experience. If there's anything to look forward to, its probably the short security lines.
 
smflyer
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Re: Sacramento (SMF) Aviation Thread - 2020

Sun May 24, 2020 9:40 pm

2020 Master Plan for SMF has just been released for public review. Did a quick skim of it and looks like the most notable needs at the airport by the time the airport reaches about 16mil passengers per year include: more RON parking for aircraft, a new consolidated rental car facility which would be built as a parking garage style facility just south of the existing A garage and appears to have walkway bridges to each of the terminals, a new airside concourse with 6 gates connected to terminal B via a walkway, new terminal B parking garage, and more economy parking.

I didn't read through everything, but I found it odd they want to create a whole new concourse with 6 gates rather than just expand the current concourse B which from what I know can already be expanded.

https://sacramento.aero/scas/about/planning_design
 
ericm2031
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Re: Sacramento (SMF) Aviation Thread - 2020

Sun May 24, 2020 10:57 pm

smflyer wrote:
2020 Master Plan for SMF has just been released for public review. Did a quick skim of it and looks like the most notable needs at the airport by the time the airport reaches about 16mil passengers per year include: more RON parking for aircraft, a new consolidated rental car facility which would be built as a parking garage style facility just south of the existing A garage and appears to have walkway bridges to each of the terminals, a new airside concourse with 6 gates connected to terminal B via a walkway, new terminal B parking garage, and more economy parking.

I didn't read through everything, but I found it odd they want to create a whole new concourse with 6 gates rather than just expand the current concourse B which from what I know can already be expanded.

https://sacramento.aero/scas/about/planning_design


That is an interesting concept, but I guess is best in terms of having least impact on existing operations and also keeps the current concourse on B from getting overly crowded...and from what I gathered, it still allows an extension onto the end B if needed. I wonder how the airlines in A will feel though not getting any additional gates in that terminal? I'm guessing AA might want to co-locate with AS at some point in B, so that could solve that problem pretty easily.
 
williaminsd
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Re: Sacramento (SMF) Aviation Thread - 2020

Tue May 26, 2020 6:27 pm

Some positive notes for SMF from Enilria's OAG release last Sunday.

Big news is from Delta, where several frequencies are either returning or increasing this summer including:

SMF-MSP - 1/x daily, effective 7/1. At present not flying.
SMF-ATL - 2/x daily, effective 7/1. At present 1/x daily.
SMF-LAX - 3x/daily, effective 7/1. At present 1x daily.

AC shows a return of SMF-YVR 1x 6 days/week starting in September. We'll see if this holds, but I'll gladly take it for now.

And as we know from previous announcements, AS goes to 2x/day SMF-SAN starting 6/1 (at present 1/x daily).

So that's six additional flights over the summer in a Memorial Day release. Not bad and certainly additional evidence that we bottomed-out in April and, assuming the state-mandated "lockdowns" are eased or simply rejected (as they increasingly are), the climb back to viability has begun, albeit very slowly.

The key, of course, is getting the economy going again...
 
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Jetsgo
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Re: Sacramento (SMF) Aviation Thread - 2020

Fri May 29, 2020 2:10 am

Hawaii has extended it's mandated quarantine for mainland visitors beyond June 30th. I assume this will delay WN and HA from resuming service? Previously WN was scheduled to restart SMF-HNL on June 7th.

https://www.hawaiinewsnow.com/2020/05/28/live-governor-mayors-outline-latest-steps-reopen-hawaiis-economy/
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strfyr51
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Re: SMF/Sacramento - 2020

Fri May 29, 2020 4:19 am

jplatts wrote:
williaminsd wrote:
Southwest to BNA and the return of MCO. Maybe MCI…


I agree about WN possibly re-adding SMF-BNA, SMF-MCO, and SMF-MCI nonstop service. There are also a few other nonstop routes that could get added by WN out of SMF such as SMF-ATL, SMF-FLL, SMF-KOA, and SMF-SAT.

While DL already serves ATL nonstop from SMF, I mentioned WN possibly adding SMF-ATL nonstop service with WN recently adding ATL-CHS/MEM/ORF/ECP nonstop service, with SMF being one of the largest WN stations that WN doesn't currently serve nonstop from ATL, and with WN being able to offer 1-stop connections to a few additional destinations such as GSP, RIC, and PBI from SMF if WN adds SMF-ATL nonstop service.

SJC is also the only WN station larger than SMF that doesn't already have nonstop service to ATL on WN, but the lack of WN SJC-ATL nonstop service is less of an issue with WN already serving ATL nonstop from OAK in the San Francisco Bay Area.

since OAK is a WN hub, should they be obligated to duplicate the same services at SMF?
 
williaminsd
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Re: Sacramento (SMF) Aviation Thread - 2020

Sat May 30, 2020 7:19 pm

Remarkable news posted in the Southwest fleet thread. December 2020 schedule published and SMF checks in with 85 flights/day M-F.

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1437991&p=22245615&hilit=Smf#p22245615

This includes a 9:20am departure for Honolulu and an 8:35am departure for Maui. Nothing for Cabo shown.

All in all, pretty strong statement by Southwest and further confidence in our economy reopening this year.
 
williaminsd
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Re: Sacramento (SMF) Aviation Thread - 2020

Sun May 31, 2020 2:11 pm

Volaris returns daily to Sacramento-Guadalajara starting June 7 with a daytime flight. Departs SMF @ 3:15pm; arrives from GDL @ 2:00pm.
 
smflyer
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Re: Sacramento (SMF) Aviation Thread - 2020

Sun May 31, 2020 2:35 pm

williaminsd wrote:
Remarkable news posted in the Southwest fleet thread. December 2020 schedule published and SMF checks in with 85 flights/day M-F.

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1437991&p=22245615&hilit=Smf#p22245615

This includes a 9:20am departure for Honolulu and an 8:35am departure for Maui. Nothing for Cabo shown.

All in all, pretty strong statement by Southwest and further confidence in our economy reopening this year.


I wonder if this has anything to do with the rumors going around on this site that WN wanting to squeeze their competitors while their down. I was able to look at the schedule as well and it show BUR DEN HOU LAS LAX PHX SNA all have 1 additional frequency a day extra from the year ago period for Dec 2020. I find it weird WN is adding capacity to their monopoly routes out of SMF such as BUR, HOU, SNA unless they are using those routes to funnel passengers through SMF for connecting service.
 
williaminsd
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Re: Sacramento (SMF) Aviation Thread - 2020

Sun May 31, 2020 2:50 pm

Also noted that JetBlue returns to SMF/JFK on July 1 with 1x/week departing at 12:45pm and arriving from JFK at 11:23am. Goes to 2x/week July 20. Equipment is an A320. Fares start at (gulp!), $764 OW...

Not sure if this has been noted before here or elsewhere, but according to website, AeroMexico returns to SMF July 1 with 2 daily flights to Guadalajara. Departs SMF @ 9:41pm and 11:20pm; arrives from GDL @ 8:10pm and 9:40pm (interesting 1 minute overlap there). Both flights are 737-800s.

More good news for SMF as the economy slowly reopens after the state-imposed economic lockdown...
 
smflyer
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Re: Sacramento (SMF) Aviation Thread - 2020

Sun May 31, 2020 3:25 pm

williaminsd wrote:
Also noted that JetBlue returns to SMF/JFK on July 1 with 1x/week departing at 12:45pm and arriving from JFK at 11:23am. Goes to 2x/week July 20. Equipment is an A320. Fares start at (gulp!), $764 OW...

Not sure if this has been noted before here or elsewhere, but according to website, AeroMexico returns to SMF July 1 with 2 daily flights to Guadalajara. Departs SMF @ 9:41pm and 11:20pm; arrives from GDL @ 8:10pm and 9:40pm (interesting 1 minute overlap there). Both flights are 737-800s.

More good news for SMF as the economy slowly reopens after the state-imposed economic lockdown...


Good news from Aeromexico! That 1 min overlap is quite funny, but im pretty sure this must have something to do with checkin, ground, and gate agent utility. The same checkin workers work with a steady flow of passengers for two flights, the same gate agent can be used for both flights, and the same ground crew can be used for both flights. As for immigration, it keeps a steady flow without a mass arrival of passengers all at once.

I wonder why Aeromexico doesn't just contract out to Delta to handle thier OPs at SMF since they are partners. I guess this might require Delta to relocate to terminal B, but now might be a good time since a lot of carriers are still suspended and gate space is available. If i remember correctly, I think HA used to contract out to DL for their SMF operations when they were still operating out of terminal A?

I wonder if Mexico travel is especially strong or if the carriers are coming back too early.
 
williaminsd
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Re: Sacramento (SMF) Aviation Thread - 2020

Mon Jun 01, 2020 12:34 am

Update to the resumed Volaris flight: it's a bit complicated... First flight is tomorrow night, then nothing until 6/7. That flight departs in afternoon until 6/17, when it goes to a late evening departure, finally settling in @ 11:36pm. Then on 7/7, the real fun begins...

Tuesdays through mid-August, three departures, all between 10:10pm and 1:05am. On Fridays through at least end of October, two departures. In mid-August, Tuesdays go 2x/day.

Rest of week, 1x/day. Late Summer early Fall fares as low as $41!

We'll see how long this holds, but for now, I believe this is the most aggressive SMF-GDL schedule ever. On Tuesdays between Volaris and AeroMexico, there will be five flights from SMF to GDL, and four flights on Fridays.

This is all according to their respective websites as of this evening. That is a LOT of pent-up demand!

Btw - the Flightradar 24 seven-day outlook is up to 384, up from 326 flights in late April...
 
smflyer
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Re: Sacramento (SMF) Aviation Thread - 2020

Mon Jun 01, 2020 2:26 pm

williaminsd wrote:
Update to the resumed Volaris flight: it's a bit complicated... First flight is tomorrow night, then nothing until 6/7. That flight departs in afternoon until 6/17, when it goes to a late evening departure, finally settling in @ 11:36pm. Then on 7/7, the real fun begins...

Tuesdays through mid-August, three departures, all between 10:10pm and 1:05am. On Fridays through at least end of October, two departures. In mid-August, Tuesdays go 2x/day.

Rest of week, 1x/day. Late Summer early Fall fares as low as $41!

We'll see how long this holds, but for now, I believe this is the most aggressive SMF-GDL schedule ever. On Tuesdays between Volaris and AeroMexico, there will be five flights from SMF to GDL, and four flights on Fridays.

This is all according to their respective websites as of this evening. That is a LOT of pent-up demand!

Btw - the Flightradar 24 seven-day outlook is up to 384, up from 326 flights in late April...


I wonder what is causing the pent up demand for Mexico travel. I know we passed Cinco de Mayo, but are there other Mexican holidays that I'm unaware of that would create excesss demand or do you think this is simply just organic pent up demand.

I can see why AeroMexico and Volaris would want to re-enter the SMF market agressiveley as everytime i've been in terminal B when those flights are departing there are so many people in the gate area and checkin counters. Same thing for arrivals, there are large amount of family members waiting at the transfer level to receive their friends/family.

I wonder how soon the airport will convert B4/B6 into international capable gates
 
williaminsd
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Re: Sacramento (SMF) Aviation Thread - 2020

Tue Jun 02, 2020 1:18 pm

Did a quick glance at Southwest schedule this morning and I have accounted for 82 of the 85 M-F flights for December 2020.

Looks like the following:
SAN – 11x
BUR – 9x
LAS – 8x
LAX – 8x
DEN – 6x
ONT – 6x
PHX – 6x
SNA – 6x
LGB – 4x
PDX – 4x
SEA – 3x
MDW – 2x
AUS – 1x
BOI – 1x
DAL – 1x
GEG – 1x
HNL – 1x
HOU – 1x
OGG – 1x
SLC – 1x
STL – 1x

Nothing to BWI, what else is missing (or am I missing!)?

Of course, scheduling flights in June is no guarantee they'll go wheels-up in December, but considering what we’re coming out of, still pretty impressive for SMF and optimistic on the part of Southwest. They really do seem to be pressing their advantage, as they should. If demand rebounds, they are ready. I know we all hope it does.

As for the SMF-GDL summer service… that still shocks me, and no, I can’t account for it. That is well over 3750 seats/week and about 775 seats on Tuesdays alone. Really? Wow!

As part of my trip to Sacramento includes business in Reno, I’ve pushed this week’s trip to next week as the hotels in Nevada don’t reopen until the 4th. Departing SAN on the 9th, and the bad news is that Alaska trimmed Tuesdays to 1x, while rest of week is at 2x. Outbound LF about 25%, return on 6/12 around 20% so far.

Last note: the Flightradar 24 seven-day projection for SMF as of today is 417, up 91 in just over a month. Number of cities served is up to 27. Solid evidence of a steady rebound. I believe pre-lockdown was around 1100+.

Other airports include (all flights - as of June 2, 2020):
SAN – 583
SNA – 262
LGB – 77
LAX – 1676
ONT – 272
BUR – 194
SBA - 48
BFL - 28
FAT – 106
MRY – 42
SJC – 390
SFO – 1073
OAK – 412
RNO -158
LAS – 1224

Interesting that SMF, at 417, has more ops than both OAK and SJC, at least for now.

Stay prosperous everyone!
 
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Re: Sacramento (SMF) Aviation Thread - 2020

Tue Jun 02, 2020 1:48 pm

SMF-GDL is a strong VFR (visit friends/relatives) market. High seasons for VFR traffic are Easter/Holy Week, Summer vacation and Christmas/New Years.
 
smflyer
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Re: Sacramento (SMF) Aviation Thread - 2020

Tue Jun 02, 2020 8:52 pm

dolphinflyer wrote:
SMF-GDL is a strong VFR (visit friends/relatives) market. High seasons for VFR traffic are Easter/Holy Week, Summer vacation and Christmas/New Years.


Ahh that makes sense. Most kids are going to be out of school going into the summer and possibly fall and then you combine that with people starting to get less scared about COVID and going out more with things opening up, I can see why the Mexican carriers would be betting on a boom in VFR traffic.

In other news, anyone notice that DL is fly a A220 3x daily on SMF-SLC route right now? I still want to try that plane, but haven't gotten a chance yet.
 
williaminsd
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Re: Sacramento (SMF) Aviation Thread - 2020

Wed Jun 03, 2020 3:43 am

More news from Volaris... 2x/week service SMF-BJX (Leon) popped-up on their site tonight. Flight 253 leaves SMF @1:10am and arrives BJX at 6:57am. Service is Wed/Fri starting July 1 on A320 aircraft. Inbound on Volaris 252 arrives at 11:54pm.

Saw this when I went to confirm the SMF-GDL service. That's still there too.

Can SMF even process that many international departures/arrivals in such a short period of time?

Starting to wonder if this is some kind of glitch on website. I see no "official" announcement.

Guess we'll have to wait for July...
 
williaminsd
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Re: Sacramento (SMF) Aviation Thread - 2020

Wed Jun 03, 2020 12:15 pm

smflyer wrote:
dolphinflyer wrote:
SMF-GDL is a strong VFR (visit friends/relatives) market. High seasons for VFR traffic are Easter/Holy Week, Summer vacation and Christmas/New Years.


Ahh that makes sense. Most kids are going to be out of school going into the summer and possibly fall and then you combine that with people starting to get less scared about COVID and going out more with things opening up, I can see why the Mexican carriers would be betting on a boom in VFR traffic.

In other news, anyone notice that DL is fly a A220 3x daily on SMF-SLC route right now? I still want to try that plane, but haven't gotten a chance yet.


Btw smflyer, Delta website shows SMF-SLC going to 4x/day starting 7/2, all with the A220.

Departures are 6:00am, 10:41am, 2:03pm, and 5:35pm. Not bad...

According to website, Delta has the following schedule in July:

SMF-SLC - 4x daily
SMF-LAX - 3x daily
SMF-ATL - 2x daily
SMF-SEA - 2x daily
SMF-MSP - 1x daily

That total of 12 daily flights is an increase of four flights over the present June schedule.

July is going to be a big month for the reopening of SMF. I hope all these hold!

Also - the Flightradar 24 running seven-day flight projection total is up to 428, up over 100 flights/week since late April.

Number of cities up to 28 with SMF-SAN retaking the "busiest route" lead with 51 flights scheduled in the coming week.

Really good to see the state-mandated economic lockdown disappearing in the rearview mirror! Maybe July can get SMF over 500 flights a week, or somewhere around 40+% of the pre-lockdown ops totals...
 
smflyer
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Re: Sacramento (SMF) Aviation Thread - 2020

Wed Jun 03, 2020 4:28 pm

williaminsd wrote:
More news from Volaris... 2x/week service SMF-BJX (Leon) popped-up on their site tonight. Flight 253 leaves SMF @1:10am and arrives BJX at 6:57am. Service is Wed/Fri starting July 1 on A320 aircraft. Inbound on Volaris 252 arrives at 11:54pm.

Saw this when I went to confirm the SMF-GDL service. That's still there too.

Can SMF even process that many international departures/arrivals in such a short period of time?

Starting to wonder if this is some kind of glitch on website. I see no "official" announcement.

Guess we'll have to wait for July...


So let me get this straight, this is the new mexico service:
Sun Y4 1xGDL, AM 2xGDL
Mon Y4 1xGDL, AM 2xGDL
Tue Y4 3xGDL, AM 2xGDL
Wed Y4 1xGDL 1xBJX, AM 2xGDL
Thu Y4 1xGDL, AM 2xGDL
Fri Y4 2xGDL 1xBJX, AM 2xGDL
Sat Y4 1xGDL, AM 2xGDL

From what I understand from the airport's planning documents that we're recently released, the current customs processing capability is 400 passengers/hr which would be equivalent to 2 flights an hour. Y4 has their flights spaced an hour and AM also has their flights spaced by an hour. So it looks like they are running at the capacity of what the terminal can handle at the moment as long as no more than 2 planes arrive every hour. The planning documents note that the customs facility can be expanded to handle 800 passengers an hour and i think dolphinflyer also noted that gates B4 and B6 can be converted to international gates without too much cost.

Only thing is, im not a big fan of that frosted glass they use in the international capable gates since as an AvGeek i like to see the outside and hope they don't expand the frosted glass all the way to the B4. this would mean all of the north part of the airport operations would be blocked off from view if you are in that part of the concourse. I've noticed that in other countries they simply use regular glass to separate the lounge area from the international arrival corridor. If SMF decides to expand the intl capable gates, i hope they switch to regular clear glass so that airfield views aren't obstructed.
 
williaminsd
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Re: Sacramento (SMF) Aviation Thread - 2020

Wed Jun 03, 2020 9:16 pm

smflyer wrote:
williaminsd wrote:
More news from Volaris... 2x/week service SMF-BJX (Leon) popped-up on their site tonight. Flight 253 leaves SMF @1:10am and arrives BJX at 6:57am. Service is Wed/Fri starting July 1 on A320 aircraft. Inbound on Volaris 252 arrives at 11:54pm.

Saw this when I went to confirm the SMF-GDL service. That's still there too.

Can SMF even process that many international departures/arrivals in such a short period of time?

Starting to wonder if this is some kind of glitch on website. I see no "official" announcement.

Guess we'll have to wait for July...


So let me get this straight, this is the new mexico service:
Sun Y4 1xGDL, AM 2xGDL
Mon Y4 1xGDL, AM 2xGDL
Tue Y4 3xGDL, AM 2xGDL
Wed Y4 1xGDL 1xBJX, AM 2xGDL
Thu Y4 1xGDL, AM 2xGDL
Fri Y4 2xGDL 1xBJX, AM 2xGDL
Sat Y4 1xGDL, AM 2xGDL

From what I understand from the airport's planning documents that we're recently released, the current customs processing capability is 400 passengers/hr which would be equivalent to 2 flights an hour. Y4 has their flights spaced an hour and AM also has their flights spaced by an hour. So it looks like they are running at the capacity of what the terminal can handle at the moment as long as no more than 2 planes arrive every hour. The planning documents note that the customs facility can be expanded to handle 800 passengers an hour and i think dolphinflyer also noted that gates B4 and B6 can be converted to international gates without too much cost.

Only thing is, im not a big fan of that frosted glass they use in the international capable gates since as an AvGeek i like to see the outside and hope they don't expand the frosted glass all the way to the B4. this would mean all of the north part of the airport operations would be blocked off from view if you are in that part of the concourse. I've noticed that in other countries they simply use regular glass to separate the lounge area from the international arrival corridor. If SMF decides to expand the intl capable gates, i hope they switch to regular clear glass so that airfield views aren't obstructed.


That's what it looks like to me. Remember though, those 1:05am departures are listed as Tuesday, but it's effectively late Monday night. And I hate frosted glass too. I'm sure there's a good reason for it, but I know what you mean.

We will see...
 
smflyer
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Re: Sacramento (SMF) Aviation Thread - 2020

Thu Jun 04, 2020 1:28 am

For anyone travelling lately or is going to travel soon, how full are your first class and extra space economy seats?

I'm going to be on 4 DL flights later this month starting June 9 and pretty much every flight has its first class full or nearly full and the comfort+ section have 1-2 seats remaining. Meanwhile the regular economy seating appears to be a ghost town. I was hoping to score some good upgrades, but it appears that maybe business travel is already rebounding? what are you guys seeing on your future itineraries and recent flights if you have been on one. I highly doubt these seats are filled by stragglers who booked their seats pre-Covid since the refund/cancellation policy has been so lax the last few months.

I thougt id post this on this forum since im only referring to SMF flights, not systemwide traffic.
 
Jshank83
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Re: Sacramento (SMF) Aviation Thread - 2020

Thu Jun 04, 2020 3:15 am

smflyer wrote:
For anyone travelling lately or is going to travel soon, how full are your first class and extra space economy seats?

I'm going to be on 4 DL flights later this month starting June 9 and pretty much every flight has its first class full or nearly full and the comfort+ section have 1-2 seats remaining. Meanwhile the regular economy seating appears to be a ghost town. I was hoping to score some good upgrades, but it appears that maybe business travel is already rebounding? what are you guys seeing on your future itineraries and recent flights if you have been on one. I highly doubt these seats are filled by stragglers who booked their seats pre-Covid since the refund/cancellation policy has been so lax the last few months.

I thougt id post this on this forum since im only referring to SMF flights, not systemwide traffic.


I would guess one reason the number available are low is because they are blocking out seats for distancing. So that means less available from the start.
 
ericm2031
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Re: Sacramento (SMF) Aviation Thread - 2020

Thu Jun 04, 2020 1:55 pm

williaminsd wrote:
July is going to be a big month for the reopening of SMF. I hope all these hold!


AA, AS, and UA haven’t published their July schedules yet, so if you are looking at theirs, it’s still showing pre-COVID. UA will be up Saturday and AA on Sunday.
 
williaminsd
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Re: Sacramento (SMF) Aviation Thread - 2020

Thu Jun 04, 2020 2:12 pm

ericm2031 wrote:
williaminsd wrote:
July is going to be a big month for the reopening of SMF. I hope all these hold!


AA, AS, and UA haven’t published their July schedules yet, so if you are looking at theirs, it’s still showing pre-COVID. UA will be up Saturday and AA on Sunday.


Hey thanks! So maybe that's what all the Volaris activity is as well...
Last edited by williaminsd on Thu Jun 04, 2020 2:23 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
smflyer
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Re: Sacramento (SMF) Aviation Thread - 2020

Thu Jun 04, 2020 2:14 pm

Jshank83 wrote:
smflyer wrote:
For anyone travelling lately or is going to travel soon, how full are your first class and extra space economy seats?

I'm going to be on 4 DL flights later this month starting June 9 and pretty much every flight has its first class full or nearly full and the comfort+ section have 1-2 seats remaining. Meanwhile the regular economy seating appears to be a ghost town. I was hoping to score some good upgrades, but it appears that maybe business travel is already rebounding? what are you guys seeing on your future itineraries and recent flights if you have been on one. I highly doubt these seats are filled by stragglers who booked their seats pre-Covid since the refund/cancellation policy has been so lax the last few months.

I thougt id post this on this forum since im only referring to SMF flights, not systemwide traffic.


I would guess one reason the number available are low is because they are blocking out seats for distancing. So that means less available from the start.


Yeah i understand they are blocking out seats, but i was just pointing out that the premium cabins seems to be going out full like pre-COVID days while the regular seats are more or less empty. For example my SMF-ATL flight shows first full, comfort+ with 2 seats remaining, and economy completely empty but a couple seats towards the back.
 
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KLMatSJC
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Re: Sacramento (SMF) Aviation Thread - 2020

Thu Jun 04, 2020 2:50 pm

williaminsd wrote:
Interesting that SMF, at 417, has more ops than both OAK and SJC, at least for now.

Not too surprising they are ahead of SJC. SJC only has 3 cargo flights per day and quite a few airlines have consolidated a lot of their operation at SFO.
A318/19/20/21/21N A332/3 A343/5 A388 B712 B722 B732/3/4/7/8/9/9ER B744/4M B752/3 B762ER/3/3ER/4ER B772/E/L/W B788 CRJ2/7/9 Q400 EMB-120 ERJ-135/140/145/145XR/175 DC-10-10 MD-82/83/88/90

Long Live the Tulip, Cactus, and Redwood
 
AAflyguy
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Re: Sacramento (SMF) Aviation Thread - 2020

Thu Jun 04, 2020 3:03 pm

KLMatSJC wrote:
williaminsd wrote:
Interesting that SMF, at 417, has more ops than both OAK and SJC, at least for now.

Not too surprising they are ahead of SJC. SJC only has 3 cargo flights per day and quite a few airlines have consolidated a lot of their operation at SFO.


What is interesting to me is that OAK is consistently out-boarding SJC, by hundreds of passengers daily, yet SJC holds on to more scheduled service and keeps its legacy carriers flying to multiple hubs. Not saying more passengers translates into better financial performance, but still an important and interesting metric when SJC was solidly ahead of OAK pre-COVID and had been pulling away and widening the gap for 2 years.

Hope SMF continues to roar its way back throughout the summer season. Things look promising with the schedule build discussed here.

AAflyguy
 
ericm2031
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Re: Sacramento (SMF) Aviation Thread - 2020

Thu Jun 04, 2020 3:38 pm

AAflyguy wrote:
KLMatSJC wrote:
williaminsd wrote:
Interesting that SMF, at 417, has more ops than both OAK and SJC, at least for now.

Not too surprising they are ahead of SJC. SJC only has 3 cargo flights per day and quite a few airlines have consolidated a lot of their operation at SFO.


What is interesting to me is that OAK is consistently out-boarding SJC, by hundreds of passengers daily, yet SJC holds on to more scheduled service and keeps its legacy carriers flying to multiple hubs. Not saying more passengers translates into better financial performance, but still an important and interesting metric when SJC was solidly ahead of OAK pre-COVID and had been pulling away and widening the gap for 2 years.

Hope SMF continues to roar its way back throughout the summer season. Things look promising with the schedule build discussed here.

AAflyguy


I would guess there are probably more RJs flying at SJC than OAK, which might result in less passengers but more departures than OAK. I don't know about SJC in particular, but many flights around the country are hitting their capacity caps.
 
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Re: Sacramento (SMF) Aviation Thread - 2020

Sat Jun 06, 2020 9:38 pm

If I'm reading the United July schedule release correctly, SMF doubles it's daily total from three to six with a morning flight to Chicago and afternoon flights to LAX and SFO. Existing two flights to Denver and morning to SFO remain unchanged.

With yesterday's spectacular jobs report, they may be underestimating demand and jeopardize opportunity to capture market share...
 
smflyer
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Re: Sacramento (SMF) Aviation Thread - 2020

Sun Jun 07, 2020 1:29 pm

williaminsd wrote:
If I'm reading the United July schedule release correctly, SMF doubles it's daily total from three to six with a morning flight to Chicago and afternoon flights to LAX and SFO. Existing two flights to Denver and morning to SFO remain unchanged.

With yesterday's spectacular jobs report, they may be underestimating demand and jeopardize opportunity to capture market share...


bad news for you williaminsd, looks like AS is dropping SAN-SMF in August according to the latest OAG forum.
 
williaminsd
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Re: Sacramento (SMF) Aviation Thread - 2020

Sun Jun 07, 2020 4:48 pm

smflyer wrote:
williaminsd wrote:
If I'm reading the United July schedule release correctly, SMF doubles it's daily total from three to six with a morning flight to Chicago and afternoon flights to LAX and SFO. Existing two flights to Denver and morning to SFO remain unchanged.

With yesterday's spectacular jobs report, they may be underestimating demand and jeopardize opportunity to capture market share...


bad news for you williaminsd, looks like AS is dropping SAN-SMF in August according to the latest OAG forum.


I saw that. While I prefer Alaska, Southwest flies multiple frequencies daily and by December will be back up to 11 daily. So yeah, I'll miss seat selection, free cocktails up front, and FAs i've gotten to know over the years, but I'll sure like the frequencies and my bags will still fly free on Southwest. Will it be a change? Yes. Bad news? Meh...

What is disconcerting to me is that Alaska let Southwest run it out of the market and that this reflects a timid approach on the part of upper-management as we come out of the state-imposed economic shut-down. That's how you lose market share: permanently.

The economy didn't plummet because it was fundamentally unsound, the economic destruction was caused by the state forcing it to shutdown. This isn't 2008.

While the May jobs report only represents one month and does not a trend make, the so-called experts were confidently projecting another 7-8 million job losses and instead, the economy added 2.5 million, so they were only off by 10,000,000 jobs or so...

Had we lost what was projected, maybe this makes some sense. But an airline doesn't make money by keeping planes grounded. Just a year ago, this segment was 4x/day including mainline. Does Alaska really believe that should the economy come back to anywhere near pre-lockdown levels in Q4 2020/Q1 2021, this won't again be viable?

I am not typically one to question route planning departments, but just look at the difference between Alaska and Southwest management as we begin our long crawl back. Southwest up to near full 2019 capacity by December; Alaska limping along, seemingly afraid of its own shadow.

This management attitude has little direct impact on me, other than limit my ability to acquire milage and further erode any loyalty to Alaska, but I'd have to think it has a significant impact on stockholders.

An airline that continues to pull out of markets shows a pessimism that airline travel has not yet bottomed-out and signals that the present stock price is likely to stay. Why would you invest now if the airline clearly sees things not getting better at least though next March?

Southwest, which has proven fairly prescient, sees the same data, data seemingly backed by recent jobs numbers, and comes roaring back.

We all know that setbacks are a part of life and the more important factor for success is what you do with those setbacks. The difference between Southwest and Alaska here is astounding.

Troubling times at Alaska. Much of it appears self-inflicted.

We'll see how it plays out. I better start getting ready for my return to T1 in San Diego.

Ugh... now that IS bad news...
Last edited by williaminsd on Sun Jun 07, 2020 5:09 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
LAXBUR
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Re: Sacramento (SMF) Aviation Thread - 2020

Sun Jun 07, 2020 5:04 pm

williaminsd wrote:
smflyer wrote:
williaminsd wrote:
If I'm reading the United July schedule release correctly, SMF doubles it's daily total from three to six with a morning flight to Chicago and afternoon flights to LAX and SFO. Existing two flights to Denver and morning to SFO remain unchanged.

With yesterday's spectacular jobs report, they may be underestimating demand and jeopardize opportunity to capture market share...


bad news for you williaminsd, looks like AS is dropping SAN-SMF in August according to the latest OAG forum.


I saw that. While I prefer Alaska, Southwest flies multiple frequencies daily and by December will be back up to 11 daily. So yeah, I'll miss seat selection, free cocktails up front, and FAs i've gotten to know over the years, but I'll sure like the frequencies and my bags will still fly free on Southwest. Will it be a change? Yes. Bad news? Meh...

What is disconcerting to me is that Alaska let Southwest run it out of the market and that this reflects a timid approach on the part of upper-management as we come out of the state-imposed economic shut-down. That's how you lose market share.

The economy didn't plummet because it was fundamentally unsound, the economic destruction was caused by the state forcing it to shutdown. This isn't 2008.

While the May jobs report only represents one month and does not a trend make, the so-called experts were confidently projecting another 7-8 million job losses and instead, the economy added 2.5 million, so they were only off by 10,000,000 jobs or so...

Had we lost what was projected, maybe this makes some sense. But an airline doesn't make money by keeping planes grounded. Just a year ago, this segment was 4x/day including mainline. Does Alaska really believe that should the economy come back to anywhere near pre-lockdown levels in Q4 2020/Q1 2021, this won't again be viable?

I am not typically one to question route planning departments, but just look at the difference between Alaska and Southwest management as we begin our long crawl back. Southwest up to near full 2019 capacity by December; Alaska limping along, seemingly afraid of its own shadow.

This management attitude has little direct impact on me, other than limit my ability to acquire milage and further erode any loyalty to Alaska, but I'd have to think it has a significant impact on stockholders.

An airline that continues to pull out of markets shows a pessimism that airline travel has not yet bottomed-out and signals that the present stock price is likely to stay. Why would you invest now if the airline clearly sees things not getting better at least though next March?

Southwest, which has proven fairly prescient, sees the same data, data seemingly backed by recent jobs numbers, and comes roaring back.

We all know that setbacks are a part of life and the more important factor for success is what you do with those setbacks. The difference between Southwest and Alaska here is astounding.

Troubling times at Alaska. Much of it appears self-inflicted.

We'll see how it plays out. I better start getting ready for my return to T1 in San Diego.

Ugh... now that IS bad news...


But they also added in PNW where WN is retreating again. Sad time for WN.
 
LAXBUR
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Re: Sacramento (SMF) Aviation Thread - 2020

Sun Jun 07, 2020 5:07 pm

williaminsd wrote:

This management attitude has little direct impact on me, other than limit my ability to acquire milage and further erode any loyalty to Alaska, but I'd have to think it has a significant impact on stockholders.


Have you checked Alaska’s stock right now?

https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/06/ ... slows.aspx
 
williaminsd
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Re: Sacramento (SMF) Aviation Thread - 2020

Sun Jun 07, 2020 5:14 pm

LAXBUR wrote:
williaminsd wrote:

This management attitude has little direct impact on me, other than limit my ability to acquire milage and further erode any loyalty to Alaska, but I'd have to think it has a significant impact on stockholders.


Have you checked Alaska’s stock right now?

https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/06/ ... slows.aspx


Congratulations to Alaska, and cutting the burn-rate is both admirable and necessary, but with the recent jobs numbers, every airline stock is up now.

So the present stock price is great if you're a day trader, if Alaska is part of your long-term portfolio, we'll see.

If Alaska wants to retreat to its traditional home in the PNW, that's fine. Big fish, small pond has its advantages. But long term value requires growth, not retreat. The PNW provides limited opportunity for long-term growth which is why Alaska sought to expand away from it in the first place. This is moving backwards...
 
smflyer
Posts: 257
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Re: Sacramento (SMF) Aviation Thread - 2020

Sun Jun 07, 2020 6:46 pm

williaminsd wrote:
LAXBUR wrote:
williaminsd wrote:

This management attitude has little direct impact on me, other than limit my ability to acquire milage and further erode any loyalty to Alaska, but I'd have to think it has a significant impact on stockholders.


Have you checked Alaska’s stock right now?

https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/06/ ... slows.aspx


Congratulations to Alaska, and cutting the burn-rate is both admirable and necessary, but with the recent jobs numbers, every airline stock is up now.

So the present stock price is great if you're a day trader, if Alaska is part of your long-term portfolio, we'll see.

If Alaska wants to retreat to its traditional home in the PNW, that's fine. Big fish, small pond has its advantages. But long term value requires growth, not retreat. The PNW provides limited opportunity for long-term growth which is why Alaska sought to expand away from it in the first place. This is moving backwards...


I agree with you that AS is acting very timid in this environment when they should be expecting strong recovery to the market. I feel like AS management is too stuck in its pre-COVID "algorithm" of managing their business. Unfortunately they aren't seeing past the short term horizon on their business and this is evidenced from their pre-COVID route planning as well. They were quick to drop OGG days after WN announced OGG, dropped KOA only a little over a year after serving it (flew this route once and it was full both ways on a tuesday), upgauged SAN to mainline only to quickly retreat. The only place they have added consistent capacity is to SEA. I'm not saying they're a poorly run airline, but they seem to only run well when times are good. In crisis they seem to be putting their tail between their legs and running off. WN will continue to grow CA and take market share and AS retracts to SEA/PDX and hopes DL doesn't give off much of a fight. There goes our competition and before you know it SMF-SAN is back to $189 OW. I remember not too long ago when WN had monopoly on LAS and tickets were $150-200 OW. If DL retracts in SEA, my bets are AS hastens up cutting CA routes to get the low hanging fruit in SEA. It took them years and billions in purchasing another airline to build up CA only to squander it away. They have a relatively young fleet with 60 or so MAX/NEOs coming aboard in the near future, if they retract it will be difficult for them to re-take their market share when/if they decide on expanding CA again. If they continue to be timid, i would expect cancellation of the NEOs and return to lessor of the Airbus' at end of lease term. If they want to be aggressive, then they'll take delivery and extend leases on their pre-existing aircraft.
 
gmcc
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Re: Sacramento (SMF) Aviation Thread - 2020

Sun Jun 07, 2020 7:14 pm

smflyer wrote:
williaminsd wrote:
LAXBUR wrote:

Have you checked Alaska’s stock right now?

https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/06/ ... slows.aspx


Congratulations to Alaska, and cutting the burn-rate is both admirable and necessary, but with the recent jobs numbers, every airline stock is up now.

So the present stock price is great if you're a day trader, if Alaska is part of your long-term portfolio, we'll see.

If Alaska wants to retreat to its traditional home in the PNW, that's fine. Big fish, small pond has its advantages. But long term value requires growth, not retreat. The PNW provides limited opportunity for long-term growth which is why Alaska sought to expand away from it in the first place. This is moving backwards...


I agree with you that AS is acting very timid in this environment when they should be expecting strong recovery to the market. I feel like AS management is too stuck in its pre-COVID "algorithm" of managing their business. Unfortunately they aren't seeing past the short term horizon on their business and this is evidenced from their pre-COVID route planning as well. They were quick to drop OGG days after WN announced OGG, dropped KOA only a little over a year after serving it (flew this route once and it was full both ways on a tuesday), upgauged SAN to mainline only to quickly retreat. The only place they have added consistent capacity is to SEA. I'm not saying they're a poorly run airline, but they seem to only run well when times are good. In crisis they seem to be putting their tail between their legs and running off. WN will continue to grow CA and take market share and AS retracts to SEA/PDX and hopes DL doesn't give off much of a fight. There goes our competition and before you know it SMF-SAN is back to $189 OW. I remember not too long ago when WN had monopoly on LAS and tickets were $150-200 OW. If DL retracts in SEA, my bets are AS hastens up cutting CA routes to get the low hanging fruit in SEA. It took them years and billions in purchasing another airline to build up CA only to squander it away. They have a relatively young fleet with 60 or so MAX/NEOs coming aboard in the near future, if they retract it will be difficult for them to re-take their market share when/if they decide on expanding CA again. If they continue to be timid, i would expect cancellation of the NEOs and return to lessor of the Airbus' at end of lease term. If they want to be aggressive, then they'll take delivery and extend leases on their pre-existing aircraft.

AS pre covid was willing to lose a little money on a route. Post covid their attitude is different. Management seems very committed to a zero cash burn rate by the end of the year. For AS it comes down to does X route make money in this environment. If not it is gone unless it touches SEA. As to all the flight through SEA the port assigns gates based on seat count so the only way to stop DL from growing is to add as much as you can.
 
williaminsd
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Re: Sacramento (SMF) Aviation Thread - 2020

Sun Jun 07, 2020 7:45 pm

gmcc wrote:
smflyer wrote:
williaminsd wrote:

Congratulations to Alaska, and cutting the burn-rate is both admirable and necessary, but with the recent jobs numbers, every airline stock is up now.

So the present stock price is great if you're a day trader, if Alaska is part of your long-term portfolio, we'll see.

If Alaska wants to retreat to its traditional home in the PNW, that's fine. Big fish, small pond has its advantages. But long term value requires growth, not retreat. The PNW provides limited opportunity for long-term growth which is why Alaska sought to expand away from it in the first place. This is moving backwards...


I agree with you that AS is acting very timid in this environment when they should be expecting strong recovery to the market. I feel like AS management is too stuck in its pre-COVID "algorithm" of managing their business. Unfortunately they aren't seeing past the short term horizon on their business and this is evidenced from their pre-COVID route planning as well. They were quick to drop OGG days after WN announced OGG, dropped KOA only a little over a year after serving it (flew this route once and it was full both ways on a tuesday), upgauged SAN to mainline only to quickly retreat. The only place they have added consistent capacity is to SEA. I'm not saying they're a poorly run airline, but they seem to only run well when times are good. In crisis they seem to be putting their tail between their legs and running off. WN will continue to grow CA and take market share and AS retracts to SEA/PDX and hopes DL doesn't give off much of a fight. There goes our competition and before you know it SMF-SAN is back to $189 OW. I remember not too long ago when WN had monopoly on LAS and tickets were $150-200 OW. If DL retracts in SEA, my bets are AS hastens up cutting CA routes to get the low hanging fruit in SEA. It took them years and billions in purchasing another airline to build up CA only to squander it away. They have a relatively young fleet with 60 or so MAX/NEOs coming aboard in the near future, if they retract it will be difficult for them to re-take their market share when/if they decide on expanding CA again. If they continue to be timid, i would expect cancellation of the NEOs and return to lessor of the Airbus' at end of lease term. If they want to be aggressive, then they'll take delivery and extend leases on their pre-existing aircraft.

AS pre covid was willing to lose a little money on a route. Post covid their attitude is different. Management seems very committed to a zero cash burn rate by the end of the year. For AS it comes down to does X route make money in this environment. If not it is gone unless it touches SEA. As to all the flight through SEA the port assigns gates based on seat count so the only way to stop DL from growing is to add as much as you can.


As noted, this approach makes more sense if the "experts" had been anywhere close to correct with covid-related projections of over 2,000,000 Americans dead or over 20% unemployed in May. But these "experts" were not only wrong, but spectacularly so.

This retreat seems to reflect a business plan based on those horrific projections, not the reality we're seeing today.
 
smflyer
Posts: 257
Joined: Tue May 01, 2018 4:44 pm

Re: Sacramento (SMF) Aviation Thread - 2020

Sun Jun 07, 2020 11:03 pm

williaminsd wrote:
gmcc wrote:
smflyer wrote:

I agree with you that AS is acting very timid in this environment when they should be expecting strong recovery to the market. I feel like AS management is too stuck in its pre-COVID "algorithm" of managing their business. Unfortunately they aren't seeing past the short term horizon on their business and this is evidenced from their pre-COVID route planning as well. They were quick to drop OGG days after WN announced OGG, dropped KOA only a little over a year after serving it (flew this route once and it was full both ways on a tuesday), upgauged SAN to mainline only to quickly retreat. The only place they have added consistent capacity is to SEA. I'm not saying they're a poorly run airline, but they seem to only run well when times are good. In crisis they seem to be putting their tail between their legs and running off. WN will continue to grow CA and take market share and AS retracts to SEA/PDX and hopes DL doesn't give off much of a fight. There goes our competition and before you know it SMF-SAN is back to $189 OW. I remember not too long ago when WN had monopoly on LAS and tickets were $150-200 OW. If DL retracts in SEA, my bets are AS hastens up cutting CA routes to get the low hanging fruit in SEA. It took them years and billions in purchasing another airline to build up CA only to squander it away. They have a relatively young fleet with 60 or so MAX/NEOs coming aboard in the near future, if they retract it will be difficult for them to re-take their market share when/if they decide on expanding CA again. If they continue to be timid, i would expect cancellation of the NEOs and return to lessor of the Airbus' at end of lease term. If they want to be aggressive, then they'll take delivery and extend leases on their pre-existing aircraft.

AS pre covid was willing to lose a little money on a route. Post covid their attitude is different. Management seems very committed to a zero cash burn rate by the end of the year. For AS it comes down to does X route make money in this environment. If not it is gone unless it touches SEA. As to all the flight through SEA the port assigns gates based on seat count so the only way to stop DL from growing is to add as much as you can.


As noted, this approach makes more sense if the "experts" had been anywhere close to correct with covid-related projections of over 2,000,000 Americans dead or over 20% unemployed in May. But these "experts" were not only wrong, but spectacularly so.

This retreat seems to reflect a business plan based on those horrific projections, not the reality we're seeing today.


My hope is that when the recovery occurs they will jump back on the ship and re-start some of these routes that were cut. Hopefully they make that decision before their competitors eat their pie. Its never good when competition is reduced
 
flyfresno
Posts: 1058
Joined: Tue May 02, 2006 6:18 am

Re: Sacramento (SMF) Aviation Thread - 2020

Mon Jun 08, 2020 2:37 pm

smflyer wrote:
There goes our competition and before you know it SMF-SAN is back to $189 OW. I remember not too long ago when WN had monopoly on LAS and tickets were $150-200 OW.


Completely anecdotal, but everyone I know in Sac is sworn to WN and (according to them) would never, ever fly another airline, unless it was overseas. They'll even fly WN to an airport 50 or 60 miles away from their destination over another airline to a closer airport, even at a similar fare. They like the flexibility WN offers (which is really nice compared to the majors), they are used to and like the boarding process, and they like the "free" bag. This is in addition to WN offering way more destinations and generally more frequencies from SMF than AS does. WN seems to do a good job of winning loyalty in the cities they dominate, and they definitely dominate SMF. I would be very curious to see what % of AS's (non HI) SMF flights are locals vs people who live outside NorCal, but I would be willing to bet they tilt to visitors.

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