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LAXBUR
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Re: Sacramento (SMF) Aviation Thread - 2020

Mon Jun 08, 2020 5:43 pm

Stockholders are pretty upset right now.

https://apple.news/AlqJI5qI1RsWSojfgEyzXBw
 
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SANFan
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Re: Sacramento (SMF) Aviation Thread - 2020

Mon Jun 08, 2020 6:06 pm

flyfresno wrote:
Completely anecdotal, but everyone I know in Sac is sworn to WN and (according to them) would never, ever fly another airline, unless it was overseas. They'll even fly WN to an airport 50 or 60 miles away from their destination over another airline to a closer airport, even at a similar fare. They like the flexibility WN offers (which is really nice compared to the majors), they are used to and like the boarding process, and they like the "free" bag. This is in addition to WN offering way more destinations and generally more frequencies from SMF than AS does. WN seems to do a good job of winning loyalty in the cities they dominate, and they definitely dominate SMF. I would be very curious to see what % of AS's (non HI) SMF flights are locals vs people who live outside NorCal, but I would be willing to bet they tilt to visitors.

Well, if your experiences and friends ARE the norm, that would explain why AS has apparently dropped the SMF-SAN market. So now there is no competition on the route and that's not an ideal situation. Not that I'm worried that WN will abandon the market but fares might not stay as low as they are with another carrier flying the route and I expect at some point the number of flights operated by WN will be reduced.

Very sad to see AAG pulling out of the market IMO.

bb
 
williaminsd
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Re: Sacramento (SMF) Aviation Thread - 2020

Mon Jun 08, 2020 8:22 pm

LAXBUR wrote:
Stockholders are pretty upset right now.

https://apple.news/AlqJI5qI1RsWSojfgEyzXBw


Think long-term son, if you can...
 
flyfresno
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Re: Sacramento (SMF) Aviation Thread - 2020

Mon Jun 08, 2020 8:30 pm

SANFan wrote:
flyfresno wrote:
Completely anecdotal, but everyone I know in Sac is sworn to WN and (according to them) would never, ever fly another airline, unless it was overseas. They'll even fly WN to an airport 50 or 60 miles away from their destination over another airline to a closer airport, even at a similar fare. They like the flexibility WN offers (which is really nice compared to the majors), they are used to and like the boarding process, and they like the "free" bag. This is in addition to WN offering way more destinations and generally more frequencies from SMF than AS does. WN seems to do a good job of winning loyalty in the cities they dominate, and they definitely dominate SMF. I would be very curious to see what % of AS's (non HI) SMF flights are locals vs people who live outside NorCal, but I would be willing to bet they tilt to visitors.

Well, if your experiences and friends ARE the norm, that would explain why AS has apparently dropped the SMF-SAN market. So now there is no competition on the route and that's not an ideal situation. Not that I'm worried that WN will abandon the market but fares might not stay as low as they are with another carrier flying the route and I expect at some point the number of flights operated by WN will be reduced.

Very sad to see AAG pulling out of the market IMO.

bb


I also think part of it is Alaska has been pivoting away from routes with competition, especially point-to-point when that competition is WN. Not always (SJC-GEG is a route that WN already flies and AS is adding), but look at the HI drops out of SMF, SJC-TUS, SJC-SNA, etc. I would not be surprised to see SJD drop from SMF on AS as well, but it must be doing really well despite the competition with WN.
 
williaminsd
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Re: Sacramento (SMF) Aviation Thread - 2020

Mon Jun 08, 2020 8:34 pm

smflyer wrote:
williaminsd wrote:
gmcc wrote:
AS pre covid was willing to lose a little money on a route. Post covid their attitude is different. Management seems very committed to a zero cash burn rate by the end of the year. For AS it comes down to does X route make money in this environment. If not it is gone unless it touches SEA. As to all the flight through SEA the port assigns gates based on seat count so the only way to stop DL from growing is to add as much as you can.


As noted, this approach makes more sense if the "experts" had been anywhere close to correct with covid-related projections of over 2,000,000 Americans dead or over 20% unemployed in May. But these "experts" were not only wrong, but spectacularly so.

This retreat seems to reflect a business plan based on those horrific projections, not the reality we're seeing today.


My hope is that when the recovery occurs they will jump back on the ship and re-start some of these routes that were cut. Hopefully they make that decision before their competitors eat their pie. Its never good when competition is reduced


Ha! Well, no competition is great for Southwest lol! Have to think that they we're delighted watching Alaska slink away with nary a whimper after the millions spent to enter the market. We'll see how this shakes out. I've typically been of the opinion that the executive suite at Alaska is filled with some very sharp people and I'm not ready to change that opinion quite yet. So I'm inclined to think that this decision was based on the catastrophic models of just a month or so ago. Those models have proven completely wrong. I have a flight to SMF on Alaska tomorrow afternoon. Right now the LF checks in at just under 25%. Obviously, THAT won't be enough to keep it, but this route carries over 600,000 pax/year and is SMF's largest market. Have to think someone other than Southwest can capture some of it and surprised that Alaska seemingly can't make it work.
 
williaminsd
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Re: Sacramento (SMF) Aviation Thread - 2020

Mon Jun 08, 2020 8:47 pm

flyfresno wrote:
smflyer wrote:
There goes our competition and before you know it SMF-SAN is back to $189 OW. I remember not too long ago when WN had monopoly on LAS and tickets were $150-200 OW.


Completely anecdotal, but everyone I know in Sac is sworn to WN and (according to them) would never, ever fly another airline, unless it was overseas. They'll even fly WN to an airport 50 or 60 miles away from their destination over another airline to a closer airport, even at a similar fare. They like the flexibility WN offers (which is really nice compared to the majors), they are used to and like the boarding process, and they like the "free" bag. This is in addition to WN offering way more destinations and generally more frequencies from SMF than AS does. WN seems to do a good job of winning loyalty in the cities they dominate, and they definitely dominate SMF. I would be very curious to see what % of AS's (non HI) SMF flights are locals vs people who live outside NorCal, but I would be willing to bet they tilt to visitors.


Well I think the key word here is "anecdotal" as I know few people in Sacramento who would "never, EVER" fly another airline. Maybe you run with a more passionate crowd. What is also interesting is that, so far, every major airline is showing significant increases in service to SMF through the summer with one major and notable exception: Alaska.

Today's Flightradar 24 seven-day forecast reflects that growth with 491 departures. That's up a whopping 165 flights since late April. Ironically, SMF-SAN is the busiest route at 54 flights.

Southwest undeniably enjoys loyalty wherever they operate, but it seems like there'd be room for more than one player on a busy route like SAN-SMF...
 
williaminsd
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Re: Sacramento (SMF) Aviation Thread - 2020

Mon Jun 08, 2020 9:58 pm

williaminsd wrote:
LAXBUR wrote:
Stockholders are pretty upset right now.

https://apple.news/AlqJI5qI1RsWSojfgEyzXBw


Think long-term son, if you can...


Waited until the close.

AAG (ALK) closed @ $50.52/share. That's down over $17/share from the high of nearly $68/share YTD, and down about $22/share from the 52-week high, which was achieved when they were aggressively expanding beyond their PNW base. That's a drop of over 25% to date... you know, "long-term."

Are those long term stockholders "pretty upset" with a 25% hit to their retirement holdings?

Yes son... yes they are.

If AAG again reaches $72/share and those long-term investors are back in the black, then we'll both be happy as I am one of them.

Now run along like a good little clown and annoy someone else. I've swatted all the mosquitoes I care to for today.
 
flyfresno
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Re: Sacramento (SMF) Aviation Thread - 2020

Mon Jun 08, 2020 11:10 pm

williaminsd wrote:
flyfresno wrote:
smflyer wrote:
There goes our competition and before you know it SMF-SAN is back to $189 OW. I remember not too long ago when WN had monopoly on LAS and tickets were $150-200 OW.


Completely anecdotal, but everyone I know in Sac is sworn to WN and (according to them) would never, ever fly another airline, unless it was overseas. They'll even fly WN to an airport 50 or 60 miles away from their destination over another airline to a closer airport, even at a similar fare. They like the flexibility WN offers (which is really nice compared to the majors), they are used to and like the boarding process, and they like the "free" bag. This is in addition to WN offering way more destinations and generally more frequencies from SMF than AS does. WN seems to do a good job of winning loyalty in the cities they dominate, and they definitely dominate SMF. I would be very curious to see what % of AS's (non HI) SMF flights are locals vs people who live outside NorCal, but I would be willing to bet they tilt to visitors.


Well I think the key word here is "anecdotal" as I know few people in Sacramento who would "never, EVER" fly another airline. Maybe you run with a more passionate crowd. What is also interesting is that, so far, every major airline is showing significant increases in service to SMF through the summer with one major and notable exception: Alaska.

Today's Flightradar 24 seven-day forecast reflects that growth with 491 departures. That's up a whopping 165 flights since late April. Ironically, SMF-SAN is the busiest route at 54 flights.

Southwest undeniably enjoys loyalty wherever they operate, but it seems like there'd be room for more than one player on a busy route like SAN-SMF...


Not to get into too much of a back and forth, but my point isn't that everyone in the metro only flys WN, but rather that WN enjoys a very high, nearly insurmountable brand loyalty there. It makes sense given their large market share and near-constant growth. Of course every airline enjoys frequent fliers at SMF, but I think AS tried that route believing that a) their base there was strong enough to support a mostly P2P route like SAN, and b) they could siphon off a bit of WN's customers. Doesn't look like those worked out well enough.
 
williaminsd
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Re: Sacramento (SMF) Aviation Thread - 2020

Mon Jun 08, 2020 11:34 pm

flyfresno wrote:
williaminsd wrote:
flyfresno wrote:

Completely anecdotal, but everyone I know in Sac is sworn to WN and (according to them) would never, ever fly another airline, unless it was overseas. They'll even fly WN to an airport 50 or 60 miles away from their destination over another airline to a closer airport, even at a similar fare. They like the flexibility WN offers (which is really nice compared to the majors), they are used to and like the boarding process, and they like the "free" bag. This is in addition to WN offering way more destinations and generally more frequencies from SMF than AS does. WN seems to do a good job of winning loyalty in the cities they dominate, and they definitely dominate SMF. I would be very curious to see what % of AS's (non HI) SMF flights are locals vs people who live outside NorCal, but I would be willing to bet they tilt to visitors.


Well I think the key word here is "anecdotal" as I know few people in Sacramento who would "never, EVER" fly another airline. Maybe you run with a more passionate crowd. What is also interesting is that, so far, every major airline is showing significant increases in service to SMF through the summer with one major and notable exception: Alaska.

Today's Flightradar 24 seven-day forecast reflects that growth with 491 departures. That's up a whopping 165 flights since late April. Ironically, SMF-SAN is the busiest route at 54 flights.

Southwest undeniably enjoys loyalty wherever they operate, but it seems like there'd be room for more than one player on a busy route like SAN-SMF...


Not to get into too much of a back and forth, but my point isn't that everyone in the metro only flys WN, but rather that WN enjoys a very high, nearly insurmountable brand loyalty there. It makes sense given their large market share and near-constant growth. Of course every airline enjoys frequent fliers at SMF, but I think AS tried that route believing that a) their base there was strong enough to support a mostly P2P route like SAN, and b) they could siphon off a bit of WN's customers. Doesn't look like those worked out well enough.


No worries at all sir. Yours is one of the opinions I respect here and your point is well taken.
 
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SANFan
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Re: Sacramento (SMF) Aviation Thread - 2020

Tue Jun 09, 2020 9:02 am

flyfresno wrote:
Not to get into too much of a back and forth, but my point isn't that everyone in the metro only flys WN, but rather that WN enjoys a very high, nearly insurmountable brand loyalty there. It makes sense given their large market share and near-constant growth. Of course every airline enjoys frequent fliers at SMF, but I think AS tried that route believing that a) their base there was strong enough to support a mostly P2P route like SAN, and b) they could siphon off a bit of WN's customers. Doesn't look like those worked out well enough.

Your first points also apply to SAN: WN is by far the #1 carrier in town in all categories, with, at least previously, the most daily departures and nonstop destinations.However, AAG was rapidly gaining on WN in some regards and was clearly the 2nd largest carrier in town and it was my understanding that they had more in store for their focus city in SoCal. AS is/was certainly working on building a large and dedicated flyer base here.

AAG needs to serve the major markets in California in order to become THE Go-To Airline in the Golden State. SMF certainly needs to be a city served by AS from SAN, just as SFO and SJC are. I would have thought the availability of F seating on AS would give them a leg up on the business travelers who can take advantage of such things. And a boarding pass. And a smaller jet with fewer people to wait for when deplaning and at the baggage claim. The secret to success of course is FREQUENCY which they were working on... Using Boeings proved to be overkill for AS but I don't think the EMJ was a significant issue to pax; many seemed to prefer them.

Bottom line: if AS can't make SMF-SAN work, connecting the state capitol and one of the 3-4 largest cities in the state, then I think they better quickly retire their "CA's Go-To Airline" tag-line (and philosophy...)

bb
 
ucdtim17
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Re: Sacramento (SMF) Aviation Thread - 2020

Tue Jun 09, 2020 3:18 pm

SANFan wrote:
flyfresno wrote:
Not to get into too much of a back and forth, but my point isn't that everyone in the metro only flys WN, but rather that WN enjoys a very high, nearly insurmountable brand loyalty there. It makes sense given their large market share and near-constant growth. Of course every airline enjoys frequent fliers at SMF, but I think AS tried that route believing that a) their base there was strong enough to support a mostly P2P route like SAN, and b) they could siphon off a bit of WN's customers. Doesn't look like those worked out well enough.

Your first points also apply to SAN: WN is by far the #1 carrier in town in all categories, with, at least previously, the most daily departures and nonstop destinations.However, AAG was rapidly gaining on WN in some regards and was clearly the 2nd largest carrier in town and it was my understanding that they had more in store for their focus city in SoCal. AS is/was certainly working on building a large and dedicated flyer base here.

AAG needs to serve the major markets in California in order to become THE Go-To Airline in the Golden State. SMF certainly needs to be a city served by AS from SAN, just as SFO and SJC are. I would have thought the availability of F seating on AS would give them a leg up on the business travelers who can take advantage of such things. And a boarding pass. And a smaller jet with fewer people to wait for when deplaning and at the baggage claim. The secret to success of course is FREQUENCY which they were working on... Using Boeings proved to be overkill for AS but I don't think the EMJ was a significant issue to pax; many seemed to prefer them.

Bottom line: if AS can't make SMF-SAN work, connecting the state capitol and one of the 3-4 largest cities in the state, then I think they better quickly retire their "CA's Go-To Airline" tag-line (and philosophy...)

bb


They also don't attempt SAN-OAK, which until recently were the 3rd and 4th busiest airports in the state. WN is the dominant player on these routes, so it's probably difficult for AS to make much headway.
 
flyfresno
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Re: Sacramento (SMF) Aviation Thread - 2020

Tue Jun 09, 2020 5:17 pm

SANFan wrote:
Your first points also apply to SAN: WN is by far the #1 carrier in town in all categories, with, at least previously, the most daily departures and nonstop destinations.However, AAG was rapidly gaining on WN in some regards and was clearly the 2nd largest carrier in town and it was my understanding that they had more in store for their focus city in SoCal. AS is/was certainly working on building a large and dedicated flyer base here.


I would argue this is apples and oranges. San Diego's metro has about double the population of Sac, and SAN has about double the passengers of SMF. Also, WN has a less dominate position in SAN...WN has 53% of SMF's market, nearly 6X the share of the next closest competitor, while WN has 38% of SAN's, around 3X the share of the closest competitor (although that could be less, I'm having trouble accurately breaking down express flights). I will say, I am a bit surprised that SAN is #1 and LAX is #2 out of SMF, especially with all the airlines that serve the latter, although that's probably owing more to all the airports served in the LA Basin from SMF than anything. All that said, they seem to have made SJC-SAN work, although the huge Bay Area metro area and customer base from VX might be tipping points.
 
smflyer
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Re: Sacramento (SMF) Aviation Thread - 2020

Wed Jun 10, 2020 5:18 pm

flyfresno wrote:
SANFan wrote:
Your first points also apply to SAN: WN is by far the #1 carrier in town in all categories, with, at least previously, the most daily departures and nonstop destinations.However, AAG was rapidly gaining on WN in some regards and was clearly the 2nd largest carrier in town and it was my understanding that they had more in store for their focus city in SoCal. AS is/was certainly working on building a large and dedicated flyer base here.


I would argue this is apples and oranges. San Diego's metro has about double the population of Sac, and SAN has about double the passengers of SMF. Also, WN has a less dominate position in SAN...WN has 53% of SMF's market, nearly 6X the share of the next closest competitor, while WN has 38% of SAN's, around 3X the share of the closest competitor (although that could be less, I'm having trouble accurately breaking down express flights). I will say, I am a bit surprised that SAN is #1 and LAX is #2 out of SMF, especially with all the airlines that serve the latter, although that's probably owing more to all the airports served in the LA Basin from SMF than anything. All that said, they seem to have made SJC-SAN work, although the huge Bay Area metro area and customer base from VX might be tipping points.


I beleive the reason LAX has 4 carriers to SMF is because all 4 carriers offer some sort of connection through LAX wheras only WN and AS offer connection in SAN. AS doesn't have as many routes out of SAN as WN so their connection opportunities are lower. Combine that with SAN being a hub that is kind of out of the way that can be better served via LAX/PHX/SLC/DEN and the likes, its essentially a de-facto point to point route as you mentioned. I was kind of looking forward to the AS-AA codesharing agreement coming forward as i think that would make AS-AA a formidable competitor to WN in california. One FF account to serve SEA/PDX/BOI/LAX/SAN/PHX/DFW/CLT/ORD. Lots of regional routes combined with a national network could bring in a lot of new FF's, something only WN has out of SMF.

In other news, flew my first post-COVID flight yesterday on DL to ATL and that flight was packed with only 2 seats remaining (middle seats blocked). While sitting in ATL for my connection, i overheard 2 other flights over booked and the gate agent offered $500 and $1000 after no one took the first offer. ATL seemed pretty packed like a normal day, but that could just be DL consolidating operations in banks or concourses. Most restaurants were open, and most stores remained closed. about 1/3 of the people walking in the airport took off their masks while pretty much everyone kept masks on in flight. Didn't get upgraded to Comfort+, and not a single upgrade cleared for anybody as both premium cabins were full and paid for. Guy next to me was pouting off about not getting an upgrade to which I laughed at. I like to think of having no one in the middle seat between you as an upgrade in of itself since you still have more space. I liked how a lot of people put the in-flight map in the empty middle seat while watching movies on their personal screen. Flight attendants came around with a snack pack 2x on the flight and a few more times handing out water bottles. DL added some COVID cleanliness video prior to the safety video which i thought was just clever marketing rather than anything. Hand sanitizer handed out at the door and in snack packs.
 
ericm2031
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Re: Sacramento (SMF) Aviation Thread - 2020

Thu Jun 11, 2020 1:11 am

flyfresno wrote:
SANFan wrote:
Your first points also apply to SAN: WN is by far the #1 carrier in town in all categories, with, at least previously, the most daily departures and nonstop destinations.However, AAG was rapidly gaining on WN in some regards and was clearly the 2nd largest carrier in town and it was my understanding that they had more in store for their focus city in SoCal. AS is/was certainly working on building a large and dedicated flyer base here.


I would argue this is apples and oranges. San Diego's metro has about double the population of Sac, and SAN has about double the passengers of SMF. Also, WN has a less dominate position in SAN...WN has 53% of SMF's market, nearly 6X the share of the next closest competitor, while WN has 38% of SAN's, around 3X the share of the closest competitor (although that could be less, I'm having trouble accurately breaking down express flights). I will say, I am a bit surprised that SAN is #1 and LAX is #2 out of SMF, especially with all the airlines that serve the latter, although that's probably owing more to all the airports served in the LA Basin from SMF than anything. All that said, they seem to have made SJC-SAN work, although the huge Bay Area metro area and customer base from VX might be tipping points.


Also, another reason LAX is probably #2 to SAN is because it's all RJs except for WN and the occasional seasonal upgauges.

SJC will be interesting to watch...at least they're connecting 2 of their focus cities together, but the destinations are almost all identical. Also, watching the Hawaii flights from there (and SAN) when things ramp up will be interesting.
 
dolphinflyer
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Re: Sacramento (SMF) Aviation Thread - 2020

Thu Jun 11, 2020 7:33 pm

SMF handled 147,547 passengers during May 2020, marking an 87.2% decline yoy on a 70.0% seat capacity decline yoy. The May traffic figures increased 112.9% month-over-month versus April 2020 on a 50.5% seat capacity decline month-over-month.

SMF averaged 2,386 enplanements per day during May.

Thus, it can be said that SMF's recovery is coming in HOT!
 
dolphinflyer
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Re: Sacramento (SMF) Aviation Thread - 2020

Fri Jun 12, 2020 6:22 pm

SMF achieved a momentous milestone yesterday when the airport hit over 5,000 TSA throughput for the first time since March 18th. This represents 27% of 2019 figures and is 8 percentage points above the U.S. national average. June MTD TSA figures reflect 22% of 2019 figures.

The Runway to Recovery continues...
 
smflyer
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Re: Sacramento (SMF) Aviation Thread - 2020

Sat Jun 13, 2020 4:10 pm

dolphinflyer wrote:
SMF achieved a momentous milestone yesterday when the airport hit over 5,000 TSA throughput for the first time since March 18th. This represents 27% of 2019 figures and is 8 percentage points above the U.S. national average. June MTD TSA figures reflect 22% of 2019 figures.

The Runway to Recovery continues...


Pretty much confirms my anecdotal evidence that we are on our way to recovery based on my flight out of SMF earlier this week. Full flights galore. Its only time one of these legacies removes the blocked middle seats, because profit. I love the blocked middle seats and hope it stays that way for a long time haha.
 
williaminsd
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Re: Sacramento (SMF) Aviation Thread - 2020

Sat Jun 13, 2020 4:21 pm

Some notes from my recently completed SAN-SMF RT 6/9-6/12.

Outbound to SMF started with an unusually long wait for uber. 15 min to confirm a ride. Same issue on return. Not sure what’s going on with uber. Cost was unusually high too. I know they price by demand, but this was extreme for both price and wait: longest wait time, highest price. I hope that is just temporary!

Once at airport, a few people at check-in with three agents there to assist, certainly more than last time, but still nothing close to pre-covid. The Alaska counter is now in T2-West, which is a beautiful facility. If you have to find a silver lining in all this, Alaska moving out of that dungeon in T-2E is it.

TSA had a short line, and they grouped the queue for First Class and Main Cabin at end, so one TSA officer cleared everyone. Line for the single scanner was about 10 deep, which also was more than last time, but significantly less than pre-covid. I forgot to note if the pre-clearance line was operational.

At gate, there was a surprisingly high number of pax. I counted 31 outbound, which is a total LF of nearly 41% based on total capacity. If you account for the blocked-out seats (32), that’s a LF of over 70%. Also, main cabin boarded starting with last row and moved forward.

On board, service is a little more friendly and pre-virus feeling. Everyone still wears masks onboard (although that number has gone way-down at both airports. Even San Diego, where I thought a mask-requirement was in-place, I’d say that no more than 30% of people were wearing masks, even less in SMF), but you could remove them if eating or drinking.

Up front, you had a choice of bottled water or craft beer in a can to drink. It was not a tough call… We also got a choice of the “Picnic Packs” which are typically b.o.b. for longer flights in Main Cabin. I went with the Northwest Deli pack which includes salami, cheese, crackers, chips, sea-salt almonds, and an Almond Roca. They’re not bad!

Still no soda or juice, but a huge improvement over the zero snack/drinks we had before.

Flight back was more remarkable in terms of pax count. 37 booked (according to signage at gate) with six on stand-by. Not sure how many of those made it, but that is effectively 99% LF of available seats and <56% LF of total seats.

This makes Alaska’s decision to drop route even more perplexing. You could tell the impact of the cuts to the SMF crew. I asked some of the ground team at SMF about the loss of SAN flights. They were all bummed and some, when questioned, feared that meant many of them would soon be unemployed due to staffing cutbacks to match the drawdown of the station. They still were the consummate professionals they always are, but you could feel the sadness.

I guess that’s what happens when your employer chooses to become a small regional…

Next up, SAN-SJC on 6/18. I LOVE getting back into the sky again!
Last edited by williaminsd on Sat Jun 13, 2020 4:25 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
williaminsd
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Re: Sacramento (SMF) Aviation Thread - 2020

Sat Jun 13, 2020 4:24 pm

dolphinflyer wrote:
SMF achieved a momentous milestone yesterday when the airport hit over 5,000 TSA throughput for the first time since March 18th. This represents 27% of 2019 figures and is 8 percentage points above the U.S. national average. June MTD TSA figures reflect 22% of 2019 figures.

The Runway to Recovery continues...


What OUTSTANDING news!

Thank you for the info dolphinflyer!

As I noted above, the SMF-SAN return was at capacity yesterday. Obviously long way to go, but more evidence that SMF is indeed roaring back to life!
 
williaminsd
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Re: Sacramento (SMF) Aviation Thread - 2020

Sun Jun 14, 2020 7:40 pm

Tracking the recovery… Noticed that on the Flightradar 24 forecasts, SMF tops 500 ops in the next seven days for the first time since March with 502. This is an increase of 176 flights/week since April 27 or 54%.

I posted the ops shown for various California/Nevada airports on June 2 and compared them to today’s with the results shown below.

Top three airport increases in raw numbers are LAX, LAS, and SFO.

Top three airports increases in percentages are SJC, SNA, and SMF.

Four airports show losses since two weeks ago: MRY, BFL, FAT, and ONT.

Airport Ops 6/2 Ops 6/14 Increase/(decrease) % increase/(decrease)
LAX 1676 1831 155 9.25%
LAS 1224 1420 196 16%
SFO 1073 1205 132 12.3%
SAN 583 692 109 18.7%
SMF 417 502 85 20.4%
OAK 412 492 80 19.4%
SJC 390 507 117 30%
ONT 272 271 (-1) (-.4%)
SNA 262 339 77 29.4%
BUR 194 252 58 30%
RNO 158 161 3 2%
FAT 106 96 (-10) (-9.4%)
LGB 77 101 24 31%
SBA 48 51 3 6.25%
MRY 42 32 (-10) (-24%)
BFL 28 23 (-5) (-18%)

On a side note not directly aviation-related, but speaks to our ongoing economic recovery. I stayed in two hotels this week in Reno and Incline Village, Nevada. Incline Village is on Lake Tahoe’s north shore.

Both hotels were packed and clearly exceeded expectations as each were understaffed. Team at Incline told me that for their soft opening on 6/4, they had reservations for 27 rooms prior to the opening and ended-up with 139 reservations by the COB that day. On my night there, reservations exceeded 350 out of 422 total rooms.

The soft opening number came from the valet, so… but I had no reason to doubt his word. My experience is that the valet guys know more than anyone else at a hotel lol.

Obviously much of this demand comes from people being forced to stay inside for months and who knows how long it is sustainable. But it is more good news and speaks to the resilience and strength of our economic recovery.
 
smflyer
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Re: Sacramento (SMF) Aviation Thread - 2020

Sat Jun 20, 2020 4:51 pm

Flew back to SMF via ATL and the flight was again completely booked. First and Comfort+ was fully booked and only one passenger was upgraded to Comfort+ from a no show I presume. First class upgrade list was about 12 deep compared to the usual 20+ deep on a usual 739 sized aircraft. I'm usually able to score a Comfort+ seat, but this goes to show the demand for travel right now. The recovery continues!
 
dolphinflyer
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Re: Sacramento (SMF) Aviation Thread - 2020

Mon Jul 13, 2020 6:36 pm

SMF handled 299,175 passengers during June 2020, marking an 74.7% decline yoy on a 58.7% seat capacity decline yoy. The June figures increased 102.8% month-over-month versus May 2020 on a 41.7% seat capacity increase month-over-month. July 2020 seat capacity is projected to increase by 38.6% over June 2020 figures, so we should expect to see a significant month-over-month increase in passenger volume for July 2020.
 
bfitzflyer
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Re: Sacramento (SMF) Aviation Thread - 2020

Mon Jul 13, 2020 11:20 pm

SANFan wrote:

Bottom line: if AS can't make SMF-SAN work, connecting the state capitol and one of the 3-4 largest cities in the state, then I think they better quickly retire their "CA's Go-To Airline" tag-line (and philosophy...)

bb

AS hasn't been able to make anything work from CA other than to SEA/PDX and this is pre covid. How much have they given up at SFO and LAX just to start with. Hey if SEA is what makes your money then retrench.
 
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Jetsgo
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Re: Sacramento (SMF) Aviation Thread - 2020

Tue Jul 14, 2020 1:34 am

dolphinflyer wrote:
SMF handled 299,175 passengers during June 2020, marking an 74.7% decline yoy on a 58.7% seat capacity decline yoy. The June figures increased 102.8% month-over-month versus May 2020 on a 41.7% seat capacity increase month-over-month. July 2020 seat capacity is projected to increase by 38.6% over June 2020 figures, so we should expect to see a significant month-over-month increase in passenger volume for July 2020.


Is there a breakdown by airline of the increase in seat capacity for July? I understand HA is resuming HNL... any word on WN?
Marine Corps Aviation, The Last To Let You Down!
 
smflyer
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Re: Sacramento (SMF) Aviation Thread - 2020

Tue Jul 14, 2020 11:53 pm

bfitzflyer wrote:
SANFan wrote:

Bottom line: if AS can't make SMF-SAN work, connecting the state capitol and one of the 3-4 largest cities in the state, then I think they better quickly retire their "CA's Go-To Airline" tag-line (and philosophy...)

bb

AS hasn't been able to make anything work from CA other than to SEA/PDX and this is pre covid. How much have they given up at SFO and LAX just to start with. Hey if SEA is what makes your money then retrench.


Just in time for JetBlue to swoop in and set up shop in Cali. I would be very happy if B6 sets up a decent sized operation at LAX
 
smflyer
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Re: Sacramento (SMF) Aviation Thread - 2020

Fri Jul 17, 2020 12:28 am

B6 announces expansion at LAX, and now AS announces expansion at LAX. SMF is not included in either. Oh well.
 
Wingtips56
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Re: Sacramento (SMF) Aviation Thread - 2020

Fri Jul 17, 2020 1:01 am

Plenty of SMF-LAX service now, most of it being the WN juggernaut, which is hard to compete with.
Worked for WestAir, Apollo Airways, Desert Pacific, Western, AirCal and American Airlines (Retired). Flight Memory: 181 airports, 92 airlines, 78 a/c types, 403 routes, 58 countries (by air), 6 continents. 1,119,414 passenger miles.

Home airport : CEC
 
smflyer
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Re: Sacramento (SMF) Aviation Thread - 2020

Fri Jul 17, 2020 3:39 am

Just found this in the Southwest Fleet/Network thread, but hopefully a good sign of strength of the WN SMF market: The PHX-SMF route was the 10th highest load factor route for the month of April 2020 of all routes in the WN network. SMF as a station had the 4th highest load factors of all WN stations.
 
Wingtips56
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Re: Sacramento (SMF) Aviation Thread - 2020

Fri Jul 17, 2020 7:49 am

SMF was always strong back in my years there. So many overbooked flights and denied boardings. Hard to protect a cancelled fight and hard to stand-by non-rev.
Worked for WestAir, Apollo Airways, Desert Pacific, Western, AirCal and American Airlines (Retired). Flight Memory: 181 airports, 92 airlines, 78 a/c types, 403 routes, 58 countries (by air), 6 continents. 1,119,414 passenger miles.

Home airport : CEC
 
williaminsd
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Re: Sacramento (SMF) Aviation Thread - 2020

Sun Jul 19, 2020 6:14 pm

dolphinflyer wrote:
SMF handled 299,175 passengers during June 2020, marking an 74.7% decline yoy on a 58.7% seat capacity decline yoy. The June figures increased 102.8% month-over-month versus May 2020 on a 41.7% seat capacity increase month-over-month. July 2020 seat capacity is projected to increase by 38.6% over June 2020 figures, so we should expect to see a significant month-over-month increase in passenger volume for July 2020.


Obviously to all of us who love air travel, and SMF, this is spectacular news. I'm really looking forward to the July numbers as it is the first month where some restrictions were reinstated, but increases in flights at airports like SMF were significant.

By my unofficial count, SMF saw these additions in July:

1x/day to STL (2x total) - WN.
1x/day to BWI - WN.
1x/day to HNL - HA.
2x/day to DFW (4x total) - AA.
1x/day to ATL (2x total) - DL
1x/day to MSP - DL
3x/week to MSP - SY (This resumption surprised me and good for them)
1x/day to CHI - AA.
1x/day to CHI - UA.
1x/day to GDL - AM.
1x/day to GDL - Y4.

I miss any?

Other good news is that SMF is seeing the return to some late-night flying as AA shifted the CLT flight to a red-eye and joins AM and Y4 for a total of three daily flights after at or after 11:20. Some nights, Boutique Air joins the party with an 11:59 departure to MCE.

That's a pretty good capacity bump and so it'll be very interesting to see what kind of pax count increase it translates into. I hope it's fat.

So far for August additions, I'm only seeing the resumed HA to OGG, but I haven't really dug into it.

Still so far to go, but progress at SMF is steady and unmistakable.

I'll take that for now...
 
williaminsd
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Re: Sacramento (SMF) Aviation Thread - 2020

Sun Jul 19, 2020 8:35 pm

Btw - the Flightradar24 "scheduled flights" for the next seven days has reached 670 with 25 airports served. That's more than double the count from just three months ago. Number 1 market is DEN with 68 flights scheduled over the coming week.

Here are various airport counts with the 6/14 count in parenthesis.

LAX - 2712 (1831)
LAS - 2096 (1224)
SFO - 1715 (1073)
SAN - 1011 (583)
SMF - 670 (502)
OAK - 644 (412)
SJC - 675 (507)
ONT - 311 (271)
SNA - 499 (339)
BUR - 295 (194)
RNO - 238 (158)
FAT - 145 (106)
LGB - 128 (77)
SBA - 67 (48)
MRY - 46 (42)
BFL - 42 (28)

The trend is up for all airports, most increases are significant, some are spectacular...
 
smflyer
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Re: Sacramento (SMF) Aviation Thread - 2020

Tue Jul 28, 2020 1:33 pm

According to the lates OAG forum, B6 will be going to 2x daily on SMF-JFK starting September! They will have >1x daily through March according to Enilria's report.

According to tphuang in the JetBlue forum, SMF-JFK has a PDEW about 400passengers with B6 only capturing 36%. Combined with UA not restarting the SMF-EWR route and AA's new codeshare, it appears B6 may be able to fill both planes in this COVID environment.
 
dolphinflyer
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Re: Sacramento (SMF) Aviation Thread - 2020

Tue Aug 11, 2020 6:47 pm

During July 2020, SMF handled 406,768 total passengers, reflecting a decline of 66.9% yoy on a seat capacity decline of 46.0% yoy. On a month-over-month basis, July traffic rose 36% on a seat capacity increase of 38.5%. TSA Traveler Throughput for the month averaged 33.8% of 2019 figures or 7.7 percentage points above the U.S. National average for Jul 2020 as % of Jul 2019 statistics.

August 2020 seat capacity is projected to decline 1.7% versus July capacity, so expect things to flatten out dramatically this month.
 
smflyer
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Re: Sacramento (SMF) Aviation Thread - 2020

Fri Aug 14, 2020 12:54 am

dolphinflyer wrote:
During July 2020, SMF handled 406,768 total passengers, reflecting a decline of 66.9% yoy on a seat capacity decline of 46.0% yoy. On a month-over-month basis, July traffic rose 36% on a seat capacity increase of 38.5%. TSA Traveler Throughput for the month averaged 33.8% of 2019 figures or 7.7 percentage points above the U.S. National average for Jul 2020 as % of Jul 2019 statistics.

August 2020 seat capacity is projected to decline 1.7% versus July capacity, so expect things to flatten out dramatically this month.


wow wasn't expecting that big a jump as the "second wave" of covid came through in July. I agree that passenger numbers will level out into the fall with a probable good uptick in travel demand for the holiday season.
 
iflykpdx
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Re: Sacramento (SMF) Aviation Thread - 2020

Fri Aug 14, 2020 1:38 am

SMF is doing much better than any of the Bay Area airports as far as percentage down.
Airport Management - UND
 
williaminsd
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Re: Sacramento (SMF) Aviation Thread - 2020

Mon Aug 17, 2020 4:29 pm

dolphinflyer wrote:
During July 2020, SMF handled 406,768 total passengers, reflecting a decline of 66.9% yoy on a seat capacity decline of 46.0% yoy. On a month-over-month basis, July traffic rose 36% on a seat capacity increase of 38.5%. TSA Traveler Throughput for the month averaged 33.8% of 2019 figures or 7.7 percentage points above the U.S. National average for Jul 2020 as % of Jul 2019 statistics.

August 2020 seat capacity is projected to decline 1.7% versus July capacity, so expect things to flatten out dramatically this month.


Breaking 400,000/mo pax in this environment is spectacular. I agree that August will see some flattening as reflected by the Flightradar ops count below, but in my view, August will show the lowest growth-rate since May. After that, assuming jobs keep returning at a robust rate (More than 8.3 million jobs since May, an all-time record.), the curve starts trending up again. By October we should see some real traction. I think an aggressive goal is 50%. This assumes the 2x daily to JFK on B6 occurs as scheduled now and that Hawaii lifts its lockdown, thus freeing both HA and WN to serve what is undoubtedly a huge pent-up demand from one of Hawaii’s best markets.

Below are the weekly projections per Flightradar as of today.

The first count is as of today, the second is from mid-July, the third is from mid-June.

LAX – 2839 (2712) (1831)
PHX – 2249
LAS – 2227 (2096) (1224)
SFO – 1729 (1715) (1073)
SAN – 1050 (1011) (583)
SMF – 640 (670) (502) This is down from a high of 683 in late July.
SJC – 575 (675) (507)
OAK – 558 (644) (412)
SNA – 498 (499) (339)
ONT – 312 (311) (271)
RNO – 298 (238) (158)
BUR – 269 (295) (194)
FAT – 143 (145) (106)
SBA – 81 (67) (48)
LGB – 93 (128) (77)
MRY – 57 (46) (42)
BFL – 40 (42) (28)

Many of the airports show a decline after peaking in July, with SMF’s drop particularly acute. Despite this loss, SMF is #4 in the state, ahead of both OAK and SJC.

OAK is really taking a beating during this time, but once WN is back anywhere close to full-strength, it should rapidly move back up list.

The big difference between SMF and SJC is international service. Once that comes back online SJC should also move back ahead. While SMF typically enjoys greater cargo processing, it doesn’t make up for the larger international and corporate operations at SJC.

Some other notes…

The big jump in SMF-Mexico frequencies we anticipated earlier this year has come to fruition, but not quite as robust as we had hoped. On Tuesday night/Wednesday morning SMF enjoys four flights to Mexico, three to Guadalajara and one to Leon: 2x/Y4 to GDL, 1x to BJX; AM 1x to GDL. Original schedule in June showed 2x/daily on AM to GDL. Volaris in July ran at >68% of last year’s record totals. And... I just saw Dolphin's announcement of Volaris re-introducing service to Mexico City 2x/week in November. What OUSTANDING news! Viva la Mexico!

American Airlines is running at about half-capacity, but in August canceled its daily to Chicago (which it had just re-introduced). Let’s hope that returns soon.

WN is showing about 40% pax from last year, but made some cuts for August/September, including reducing daily SAN frequencies from 7x now to 4x in September. That’s still enough to get work done in a day and is my only choice since bonehead Alaska cut SAN-SMF service. We’ll see how October looks…

Sun Country is a surprising <60%. I guess that speaks to a much stronger leisure vs business market at present.

Freight is up <34% and where there is cargo there is commerce, so I see that as a very good sign for economy.

All in all, I think we have to be delighted by the >400k count at SMF. While down nearly 67% from last year’s record counts, it’s up nearly 600% since April.

I'll take it and we're not done yet!
 
smflyer
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Re: Sacramento (SMF) Aviation Thread - 2020

Mon Aug 17, 2020 8:34 pm

wow awesome news on the international side of things, I couldn't have predicted that move in this covid environment. Now I just hope AS doesn't have Cabo on the chopping block. I always wondered why there's no direct flight to Cancun. Anecdotally, I have overhead so many people over the years saying they are flying to Cancun. I would put my bets on WN to be successful on such a route.

I have a feeling we will be seeing a good jump in numbers next year compared to the national average. Our population here tends to be younger and more willing to travel, and this airport appears to have a good percentage of leisure travelers that can only help with the numbers. This might explain why SMF is seeing more flights a day than more business-heavy airports like SJC and the likes.
 
smflyer
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Re: Sacramento (SMF) Aviation Thread - 2020

Tue Aug 18, 2020 1:18 am

Thinking about it, I think Volaris is doing something strategic here starting up services to these American cities from Mexico City. I know that Mexico City airport is a slot restricted airport and that Aeromexico just recently filed for bankruptcy and Interjet which continues to shrink, I think Volaris is trying to not only take market share from Aeromexico, but basically set up shop in Mexico City. All the cities they added from there appear to be completely viable destinations that lacked service to Mexico City in the past likely secondary to limited number of slots in Mexico City or Aeromexico/Interjet simply squatting on their slots for more lucrative routes. I wouldn't be surprised if Volaris bullies Aeromexico out of SMF in the near future. Like other posters have noted, most of the SMF-Mexico traffic between these two carriers is VFR traffic. This type of traffic generally prefers lower fares than legacy carrier "comfort". I wouldn't be surprised if Volaris becomes the largest carrier in Mexico.

Anyways, whatever happened to the SMF-Morelia flight that was supposed to start in June? Was it completely scratched or is it just suspended until some time?
 
smflyer
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Re: Sacramento (SMF) Aviation Thread - 2020

Sun Aug 30, 2020 10:54 pm

Saturday service SMF-SJD on AA A319 starting in December. What a surprise!
https://onemileatatime.com/american-air ... er-routes/

Hopefully more leisure destinations to follow as we continue to recover from Covid. I'm hoping for SMF-PVR/CUN/FLL/LIH/KOA and early return of service to MCO/MSY
 
Iggy500
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Re: Sacramento (SMF) Aviation Thread - 2020

Mon Aug 31, 2020 12:09 am

smflyer wrote:
Saturday service SMF-SJD on AA A319 starting in December. What a surprise!
https://onemileatatime.com/american-air ... er-routes/

Hopefully more leisure destinations to follow as we continue to recover from Covid. I'm hoping for SMF-PVR/CUN/FLL/LIH/KOA and early return of service to MCO/MSY


I'm pretty surprised by this addition as well, but there's one thing that caught my attention about this route. Will AA have to move to B from A because of this new route? From what I know, Terminal A does not have a FIS/Customs area.
 
smflyer
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Re: Sacramento (SMF) Aviation Thread - 2020

Mon Aug 31, 2020 12:30 am

Iggy500 wrote:
smflyer wrote:
Saturday service SMF-SJD on AA A319 starting in December. What a surprise!
https://onemileatatime.com/american-air ... er-routes/

Hopefully more leisure destinations to follow as we continue to recover from Covid. I'm hoping for SMF-PVR/CUN/FLL/LIH/KOA and early return of service to MCO/MSY


I'm pretty surprised by this addition as well, but there's one thing that caught my attention about this route. Will AA have to move to B from A because of this new route? From what I know, Terminal A does not have a FIS/Customs area.


Likely they will have to operate the international flight arrival out of terminal B. They can board the flight out of A since in assuming the inbound flight will be from PHX. When it arrives from SJD they might just dump the passengers into B and tow the aircraft back to A for return to PHX. Likely to announce something like "you are arriving in terminal B today, please let your pick up party know" when the aircraft arrives.

Either that or they move the whole operation to terminal B so they can be buddy buddy with AS. I would prefer the move.

I doubt they will make passengers check in at A and trek to B or open up a separate B check in desk.
 
smflyer
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Re: Sacramento (SMF) Aviation Thread - 2020

Wed Sep 02, 2020 12:10 am

for whatever reason, SNA's wiki page shows Spirit starting service to SMF on 11/25. I didn't see any official announcement of such...

But wouldn't that be an interesting add as AS retracts in this market. SMF-SNA/SAN sounds like it would work. SNA with the Disney goers and SAN as the low hanging fruit with the most traffic and 1 airline on the route currently.
 
dolphinflyer
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Re: Sacramento (SMF) Aviation Thread - 2020

Fri Sep 11, 2020 7:08 pm

During August 2020, SMF handled 423,340 total passengers, reflecting a decline of 64.3% yoy on a seat capacity decline of 47.1% yoy. On a month-over-month basis, August traffic rose 4.1% on a seat capacity decline of 1.6%.

September 2020 seat capacity is projected to decline 11.9% versus August capacity, so September traffic should decline by 10-12% versus August figures.
 
Wingtips56
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Re: Sacramento (SMF) Aviation Thread - 2020

Sat Sep 12, 2020 2:14 am

smflyer wrote:
for whatever reason, SNA's wiki page shows Spirit starting service to SMF on 11/25. I didn't see any official announcement of such...

But wouldn't that be an interesting add as AS retracts in this market. SMF-SNA/SAN sounds like it would work. SNA with the Disney goers and SAN as the low hanging fruit with the most traffic and 1 airline on the route currently.

Spirit's booking page shows a 1-stop, which is over LAS.
Worked for WestAir, Apollo Airways, Desert Pacific, Western, AirCal and American Airlines (Retired). Flight Memory: 181 airports, 92 airlines, 78 a/c types, 403 routes, 58 countries (by air), 6 continents. 1,119,414 passenger miles.

Home airport : CEC
 
smflyer
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Re: Sacramento (SMF) Aviation Thread - 2020

Sat Sep 12, 2020 4:17 pm

dolphinflyer wrote:
During August 2020, SMF handled 423,340 total passengers, reflecting a decline of 64.3% yoy on a seat capacity decline of 47.1% yoy. On a month-over-month basis, August traffic rose 4.1% on a seat capacity decline of 1.6%.

September 2020 seat capacity is projected to decline 11.9% versus August capacity, so September traffic should decline by 10-12% versus August figures.


Looks like we have plateau'd out in August. Hopefully the influx of the new vacation destinations helps to increase passenger counts going forward.
 
williaminsd
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Re: Sacramento (SMF) Aviation Thread - 2020

Mon Sep 14, 2020 6:18 pm

dolphinflyer wrote:
During August 2020, SMF handled 423,340 total passengers, reflecting a decline of 64.3% yoy on a seat capacity decline of 47.1% yoy. On a month-over-month basis, August traffic rose 4.1% on a seat capacity decline of 1.6%.

September 2020 seat capacity is projected to decline 11.9% versus August capacity, so September traffic should decline by 10-12% versus August figures.


Well I think we all expected that August would start showing a traffic plateau that we hope doesn’t last through October.

The increase from July is only 16,572 or about 4%, but a little perspective, that’s still up over 615% in April, just four months prior.

According to Flightradar 24 data, September could very well show a loss as flight operations have cratered this month reaching a low during the week of 9/6-12 with 574 flights, including cargo, for an average of 95/day. That’s off by 56% if we assume a pre-pandemic number of 170/day, off >13% from August, and off 16% from the peak in mid-July. That’s a staggering 109 fewer flights a week, or better than 15/day.

Fridays remain the busiest day of week with Sundays the slowest. Sundays are averaging 40 fewer flights than Fridays and bottomed-out on September 6 (so far) with 80.

Here’s how selected western airports are shaping up through the next seven days. First figures are as of today, then as you go right mid-August/July/June.

LAX – 2660 (2839) (2712) (1831)
PHX – 2191 (2249)
LAS – 1879 (2227) (2096) (1224)
SFO – 1656 (1729) (1715) (1073)
SAN – 798 (1050) (1011) (583)
SMF – 582 (640) (670) (502) This is down from a high of 683 in late July.
OAK – 518 (558) (644) (412)
SJC – 497 (575) (675) (507)
SNA – 410 (498) (499) (339)
ONT – 281 (312) (311) (271)
RNO – 259 (298) (238) (158)
BUR – 245 (269) (295) (194)
FAT – 167 (143) (145) (106)
LGB – 139 (93) (128) (77)
SBA – 82 (81) (67) (48)
MRY – 60 (57) (46) (42)
BFL – 37 (40) (42) (28)

Of the 17 airports surveyed, all but four showed m-o-m decreases, most of them significant. Of those showing increases, all of which are small airports, FAT fares best @ 167, the best it has seen since the pandemic hit.

SMF remains the 4th-busiest airport in California, and OAK has replaced SJC at #5.

While SMF takes a hit in destination counts and is down to 28 (includes freight – at least five in the Flightradar count are freight only.), the real beating is in frequency, where SAN is down to 4x/day from 17x last year, and from 7x in July. Other examples are LAX to 8x/day on three airlines. WN had that many alone last year and AA has abandoned the market completely. ONT and SNA are both down to 4x/day, and BUR is down to a miserable 2x/day. That’s a ton of lost traffic on those routes.

I believe B6 carried zero pax in August (no change from July) and unless the governor there liberates NYC from his politically-motivated gulag, it is unlikely to return to SMF until at least after the election, wiping-out hope for the well-over 5500 pax that could be expected to JFK in October (even at just 1x/day).

If you squint though, you can find some good news for SMF:

DL added an additional daily flight to MSP for 2x/day.

UA added a daily IAH for 1/x day. UA is now back to five of its seven domestic hubs with DEN, IAH, LAX, ORD, SFO. It was at two (DEN and SFO for 3 flights/day total) in June. This will probably be it for rest of year as far as UA destinations with EWR and IAD unlikely to return until 2021.

AA keeps DFW @ 4x/day.

HA still hanging on to HNL @ 3x/week, and still shows an increase to daily in October, but I don’t know how it can do a daily to HNL with the quarantine still in place. 3x/week is probably the best we can hope for. HA also shows a non-stop to OGG starting 10/2. We’ll see, but let’s just say I’m skeptical…

The good news here is that if/when Hawaii reopens shortly after the election (purely coincidental I’m sure…), I think we can expect a huge boost in counts to the Islands from SMF in November and December.

September traditionally has a lower pax count than either August or October, so accounting for both a lower base number and a cut in flights, let’s say a drop of 66% YoY. That brings September in at around 377k.

Now let’s say that’s bottom for rest of year and speculate moving forward. October, with an economy that continues to roar back and some slight frequency increases, comes in at 38% YoY. That’s almost 440k, the highest pax count since March.

November sees Hawaii open, plus new flights to MEX, plus some further frequency additions, particularly to Southern California, gets us to 44%. Total count is almost 480K.

December finishes relatively strong with NYC, Hawaii and Cabo feeding pent-up demand for leisure travel, and even some business clients getting reacquainted. Let’s aim high and call it 52%. December pax count comes in at just over 600k for the first time since February 2020.

That means that we're looking at moderately optimistic total 2020 count of about 5.7 million pax, or a bit over 43% of 2019. That’s a staggering loss of nearly 7,500,000 pax in one year.

In 2019 each pax at SMF added about $310 to the regional economy, so this loss represents a hit of over 2.3 BILLION dollars in one year. That will take years to recover and future historians and economists can decide if this economic destruction was worth it for a disease with a median fatality age of 80.

But on a positive note, there are the continued great freight numbers. As we know, where there is freight, there is commerce and there is most certainly freight being processed at SMF.

So far this year (through July, August not officially posted on website yet) freight is up over 13% with the summer up well-over 33%. SMF enjoys regularly scheduled, heavy-equipment flights to Memphis, Rockford, IL (Chicago), White Plains, NY (NYC), JFK, Lakeland, FL (Tampa), Ft. Worth, TX, Philadelphia, PA, as well as numerous light-equipment flight to several, smaller communities throughout Northern California. It often handles four or more heavies/day plus half-a-dozen smaller aircraft. Really turning into a nice cargo operation at SMF. Mather’s up over 14% in July as well.

Ok… so 5.7 million passengers for SMF in 2020. No way to spin that as anything but brutal. The last time SMF had fewer than 5.7 million pax in a year was (gulp!)… 1993.

But let’s stay positive and note that a December count of 600k represents an increase of nearly 870% from April and that’s a great way to go into 2021…
 
Trk1
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Re: Sacramento (SMF) Aviation Thread - 2020

Mon Sep 14, 2020 6:34 pm

Why is more better in the middle of a nationwide pandemic????
 
williaminsd
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Posts: 341
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Re: Sacramento (SMF) Aviation Thread - 2020

Mon Sep 14, 2020 6:40 pm

Trk1 wrote:
Why is more better in the middle of a nationwide pandemic????


More of what? Lotsa stuff in that post. Going to need some specificity, assuming you actually want an answer...
 
dolphinflyer
Posts: 309
Joined: Sun May 08, 2005 9:57 pm

Re: Sacramento (SMF) Aviation Thread - 2020

Wed Oct 14, 2020 3:42 pm

During September 2020, SMF handled 416,608 total passengers, reflecting a decline of 62.5% yoy on a seat capacity decline of 47.1% yoy. On a month-over-month basis, September traffic declined 1.6% on a seat capacity decline of 1.2%.

September EPAX totaled 209,337, representing 97.2% of the 215,349 TSA Throughput Count for the month. TSA Throughput averaged 7,178 per day and represented 39.3% of 2019 Throughput for the month.

November 2020 seat capacity is projected to decline 10.2% versus October capacity.
 
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klm617
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Re: Sacramento (SMF) Aviation Thread - 2020

Wed Oct 14, 2020 3:59 pm

Per this weeks OAG thread Delta is adding back Detroit Sacramento flights.

DL DTW-SMF JAN 0.8>0.5[0.9] FEB 0.9>0.4[0.9] MAR 0.9>0.4[0.7] APR 0.9>0.5[0.9] MAY 0.8>0.4[0.6] JUN 0.9>0.4[0]
the truth does matter, guys. too bad it's often quite subjective. the truth is beyond the mere facts and figures. it's beyond good and bad, right and wrong...

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