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Midwestindy
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Re: AA's PHX Hub in Jeapordy?

Tue Mar 31, 2020 11:12 pm

MrPeanut wrote:
onwFan wrote:
MrPeanut wrote:
The LAX hub will be gone.  If the hub was unprofitable during good economic times, it’s gonna be bloody ugly financially as we come out of this virus mess.  The buildup of LA centered around LAX being AA’s TPAC gateway.  Considering half of their TPAC routes were to China, where demand won’t be there in the short to mid term, there will be no need for that TPAC gateway anymore.  As a domestic hub, PHX is a significantly better than LAX.  LAX was mired with problems.  Gates were spread across multiple terminals, delays were common, battling market share with 3 other major carriers, and extremely high costs (airport rents and labor costs).  Fortunately for PHX, they don’t have these types of issues.

It is 100% true that things will look much different when air travel starts back up again and that means significant changes to all airline networks.

Yeah, ok - so UA and DL can make their LA hubs work even though it is not their TPAC gateway, but AA cannot? And being the largest carrier in LAX, they will just give up their only west coast presence over to UA and DL so they they can expand there?



https://crankyflier.com/2020/03/31/amer ... er-return/


Read more above.  Without saying too much, I know the industry very well.  LAX won’t be back as an AA hub.  It will be JFK II.   AA doesn’t need the LAX hub anymore.


If AA choses to dehub LAX, without AS filling the void, they are in for a world of hurt post-corona:

1. They would lose their TPAC gateway, DFW is too far east and south to adequately connect to Asia. SEA cannot replace what AA has in LAX, and their JV with Qantas now would become a waste.
2. JFK-LAX, AA's highest revenue generating domestic route, would now become significantly weakened
3. Aren't they spending over a billion dollars in renovations to their LA facilities, the largest investment they have ever made at any airport?
4. With no true hub in either NYC or LA, and being the weaker carrier in ORD, AA will face significant challenges in catering to business travelers

I'm not confident in AS's ability to fill any void left by AA either, AS is locked in on SEA, and has struggled to grow in areas where they aren't #1

SurfandSnow wrote:
Another thing to keep in mind that most of the American Eagle flying at LAX has been operated by Compass Airlines, which shuts down on April 7th. Cranky Flier noted that not some but all of the American Eagle flying at LAX has been cut thereafter: all service to ABQ, ELP, EUG, FAT, MFR, MZT, OKC, PDX, PVR, RDM, RNO, SAN, SFO, SJC, SLC, SMF, TUS and XNA is gone. I believe LAX-YVR has already been cut as well, and don't forget that LAX-YYZ ended before the pandemic. Other long, thin mainline routes like LAX-ATL/BNA/CMH/IND/MSY/RDU/SDF are gone too. I would be surprised if much, or even any, of these flights come back anytime soon; never mind long haul flying like LAX-CHC/EZE/GRU/PEK that may not have been profitable in the first place. I should imagine LAX's loss will be PHX's gain - and lets be honest, what passengers if given the choice would rather connect via LAX rather than PHX?!?


None of those routes are showing as dropped long-term FWIW, although I expect similar (or deeper) LAX cuts for May, there hasn't been any indication that they want to give up all those routes long-term.

tphuang wrote:
cranky flier has a blog entry up on this.
https://crankyflier.com/2020/03/31/amer ... er-return/

AA is going to come out a lot smaller at LAX imo


All those mainline cuts overfly at least 2 hubs, shouldn't be surprising that they were dropped. UA did the same thing from SFO, so I don't think that is indicative of a long-term strategy to dehub LAX.
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onwFan
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Re: AA's PHX Hub in Jeapordy?

Tue Mar 31, 2020 11:40 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
MrPeanut wrote:
onwFan wrote:
Yeah, ok - so UA and DL can make their LA hubs work even though it is not their TPAC gateway, but AA cannot? And being the largest carrier in LAX, they will just give up their only west coast presence over to UA and DL so they they can expand there?



https://crankyflier.com/2020/03/31/amer ... er-return/


Read more above.  Without saying too much, I know the industry very well.  LAX won’t be back as an AA hub.  It will be JFK II.   AA doesn’t need the LAX hub anymore.


If AA choses to dehub LAX, without AS filling the void, they are in for a world of hurt post-corona:

1. They would lose their TPAC gateway, DFW is too far east and south to adequately connect to Asia. SEA cannot replace what AA has in LAX, and their JV with Qantas now would become a waste.
2. JFK-LAX, AA's highest revenue generating domestic route, would now become significantly weakened
3. Aren't they spending over a billion dollars in renovations to their LA facilities, the largest investment they have ever made at any airport?
4. With no true hub in either NYC or LA, and being the weaker carrier in ORD, AA will face significant challenges in catering to business travelers

I'm not confident in AS's ability to fill any void left by AA either, AS is locked in on SEA, and has struggled to grow in areas where they aren't #1

SurfandSnow wrote:
Another thing to keep in mind that most of the American Eagle flying at LAX has been operated by Compass Airlines, which shuts down on April 7th. Cranky Flier noted that not some but all of the American Eagle flying at LAX has been cut thereafter: all service to ABQ, ELP, EUG, FAT, MFR, MZT, OKC, PDX, PVR, RDM, RNO, SAN, SFO, SJC, SLC, SMF, TUS and XNA is gone. I believe LAX-YVR has already been cut as well, and don't forget that LAX-YYZ ended before the pandemic. Other long, thin mainline routes like LAX-ATL/BNA/CMH/IND/MSY/RDU/SDF are gone too. I would be surprised if much, or even any, of these flights come back anytime soon; never mind long haul flying like LAX-CHC/EZE/GRU/PEK that may not have been profitable in the first place. I should imagine LAX's loss will be PHX's gain - and lets be honest, what passengers if given the choice would rather connect via LAX rather than PHX?!?


None of those routes are showing as dropped long-term FWIW, although I expect similar (or deeper) LAX cuts for May, there hasn't been any indication that they want to give up all those routes long-term.

tphuang wrote:
cranky flier has a blog entry up on this.
https://crankyflier.com/2020/03/31/amer ... er-return/

AA is going to come out a lot smaller at LAX imo


All those mainline cuts overfly at least 2 hubs, shouldn't be surprising that they were dropped. UA did the same thing from SFO, so I don't think that is indicative of a long-term strategy to dehub LAX.


Which is pretty much what I was also thinking. For the time being, it makes sense for AA to close Eagle’s nest and route passengers through PHX. Is this what’s going to happen next month? Or next week? Honestly I have no clue.

Another trend I see is that AA is announcing all of its cuts well in advance, which the other airlines have not been. Most of these loaded flights on DL and UA from LAX are probably not even going to fly on that day.. So I don’t even see the point of us speculating!
Last edited by onwFan on Tue Mar 31, 2020 11:48 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
vadodara
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Re: AA's PHX Hub in Jeapordy?

Tue Mar 31, 2020 11:46 pm

For too long, AA had ignored the growth areas and hunkered down to its hubs. At some point, AA had to approach AS with a weak hand.

Might be optimum for AA to let AS pick-up at LAX. AS already has strong LAX to Pacific Northwest; also has decent intra-CA. AS probably was hemmed at LAX by gates/slots in any-case. It just needs to fill the void in few areas and AA can repeat the story at SEA.

AA will need to do the JFK-LAX run since AS doesnt have the 'high-end' product. At anyrate, who knows how airlines will come-out of this down-turn and AA is significantly weakend at JFK as well.
 
N649DL
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Re: AA's PHX Hub in Jeapordy?

Tue Mar 31, 2020 11:59 pm

tphuang wrote:
cranky flier has a blog entry up on this.
https://crankyflier.com/2020/03/31/amer ... er-return/

AA is going to come out a lot smaller at LAX imo


Cranky Flyer is everything that he says he is: Cranky. I wouldn't trust bloggers these days during these desperate times for the airlines.
 
MAH4546
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Re: AA's PHX Hub in Jeapordy?

Wed Apr 01, 2020 12:14 am

AA is not closing LAX. Please.

It's feeder airline at LAX is literally shutting down on April 7th. It will reshuffle things in May. I believe the planes are being transferred to another one of AA's feeder carriers.
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N292UX
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Re: AA's PHX Hub in Jeapordy?

Wed Apr 01, 2020 12:18 am

No.
 
ctrabs0114
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Re: AA's PHX Hub in Jeapordy?

Wed Apr 01, 2020 1:12 am

Osubuckeyes wrote:
I don't think IAH is at risk either, but I do think the oil industry will be hit hard by this which could affect IAH depending how that price war plays out long term.


Doesn't IAH/HOU get a lot of cruise-ship based traffic that connects in the Gulf area (Galveston, if I'm not mistaken)? Sounds like a double-whammy for UA at IAH (and, to a lesser extent, WN at HOU, since we're bringing up the Houston area).

IAH might not be an ideal apples-to-oranges comparison in relation to PHX per se. Though, I'd agree that IAH plays as much of a critical role for UA as PHX does for AA.
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Boof02671
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Re: AA's PHX Hub in Jeapordy?

Wed Apr 01, 2020 1:20 am

N292UX wrote:
No.

The E170s from Compass are being transferred to Envoy (MQ).
 
N292UX
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Re: AA's PHX Hub in Jeapordy?

Wed Apr 01, 2020 3:19 am

Boof02671 wrote:
N292UX wrote:
No.

The E170s from Compass are being transferred to Envoy (MQ).

I was more referring to the PHX hub with some simplicity on that one. But on that note the E170s from Compass are going to Envoy as Compass is shutting down along with a handful of other regional carriers.

But there's not much of a reason to shut down the PHX hub if you're AA. Large market with high O&D is a recipe for a hub. PHX may shrink for a while, like many other hubs, but it won't be outright de-hubbed like MEM and CLE have been in the past.
 
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LAXintl
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Wed Apr 01, 2020 10:25 pm

Per analyst note today from Joseph W. DeNardi at investment banking firm Stifel, as part of broader structural shrinking in the industry they see AA pulling back on PHX and PHL hubs.

They also see AA as having the most stressed balance and in need of the most additional financing ($7.5-9.5Bil).
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Brickell305
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Wed Apr 01, 2020 11:41 pm

LAXintl wrote:
Per analyst note today from Joseph W. DeNardi at investment banking firm Stifel, as part of broader structural shrinking in the industry they see AA pulling back on PHX and PHL hubs.

They also see AA as having the most stressed balance and in need of the most additional financing ($7.5-9.5Bil).

IIRC, per AA’s CEO, they plan to ask for $12B.
 
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Wed Apr 01, 2020 11:49 pm

Brickell305 wrote:
IIRC, per AA’s CEO, they plan to ask for $12B.


And you expect AA to get that amount?

The CARE Act provides for $25bil total in grants for passenger airlines. With likely 10+ airlines seeking funds, and with AA representing about ~17% domestic market share, the idea that it will even come close to receiving half allowed grant amounts is very unlikely imo.
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Midwestindy
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Wed Apr 01, 2020 11:55 pm

LAXintl wrote:
Per analyst note today from Joseph W. DeNardi at investment banking firm Stifel, as part of broader structural shrinking in the industry they see AA pulling back on PHX and PHL hubs.

They also see AA as having the most stressed balance and in need of the most additional financing ($7.5-9.5Bil).


I'd be interested to hear the logic behind PHL. With the retirements of E190s, B757s, B767s, & A333s & A321XLRs not coming until 2023, I'd assume that would impact PHL more than any other hub in the short-run, but I didn't imagine an overall pullback significantly greater than what other hubs will see in the long-run given the role Philly serves in AA's network.

janders wrote:
Brickell305 wrote:
IIRC, per AA’s CEO, they plan to ask for $12B.


And you expect AA to get that amount?

The CARE Act provides for $25bil total in grants for passenger airlines. With likely 10+ airlines seeking funds, and with AA representing about ~17% domestic market share, the idea that it will even come close to receiving half allowed grant amounts is very unlikely imo.


"American is eligible for about $6 billion in payroll grants and $6 billion in loans under a stimulus package"

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-heal ... SKBN21H3H1
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Midwestindy
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Thu Apr 02, 2020 2:37 am

AA is pushing back some of its international flights even further

CLT/JFK/DFW/ORD/PHL-FCO appear gone for the summer
PHL-FCO & JFK-MXP show an Oct 1st return, DFW-FCO shows a Nov 1st return

Lots of other routes like JFK-BCN are showing Oct 1st returns
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MIflyer12
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Thu Apr 02, 2020 2:51 am

Midwestindy wrote:
LAXintl wrote:
Per analyst note today from Joseph W. DeNardi at investment banking firm Stifel, as part of broader structural shrinking in the industry they see AA pulling back on PHX and PHL hubs.

They also see AA as having the most stressed balance and in need of the most additional financing ($7.5-9.5Bil).


I'd be interested to hear the logic behind PHL. With the retirements of E190s, B757s, B767s, & A333s & A321XLRs not coming until 2023, I'd assume that would impact PHL more than any other hub in the short-run, but I didn't imagine an overall pullback significantly greater than what other hubs will see in the long-run given the role Philly serves in AA's network.

janders wrote:
Brickell305 wrote:
IIRC, per AA’s CEO, they plan to ask for $12B.


And you expect AA to get that amount?

The CARE Act provides for $25bil total in grants for passenger airlines. With likely 10+ airlines seeking funds, and with AA representing about ~17% domestic market share, the idea that it will even come close to receiving half allowed grant amounts is very unlikely imo.


"American is eligible for about $6 billion in payroll grants and $6 billion in loans under a stimulus package"

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-heal ... SKBN21H3H1


Declaring they're eligible for $12 Billion doesn't mean they're going to ask for $12 Billion. Parker has acknowledged they don't know the terms of grants and loans. Treasury can ask for equity and collateral for both bailout elements. AA's market cap is only $5.2 Billion. Do you think Parker is going to commit 100% of unencumbered assets and give Treasury half the airline?
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Thu Apr 02, 2020 3:18 am

MIflyer12 wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
LAXintl wrote:
Per analyst note today from Joseph W. DeNardi at investment banking firm Stifel, as part of broader structural shrinking in the industry they see AA pulling back on PHX and PHL hubs.

They also see AA as having the most stressed balance and in need of the most additional financing ($7.5-9.5Bil).


I'd be interested to hear the logic behind PHL. With the retirements of E190s, B757s, B767s, & A333s & A321XLRs not coming until 2023, I'd assume that would impact PHL more than any other hub in the short-run, but I didn't imagine an overall pullback significantly greater than what other hubs will see in the long-run given the role Philly serves in AA's network.

janders wrote:

And you expect AA to get that amount?

The CARE Act provides for $25bil total in grants for passenger airlines. With likely 10+ airlines seeking funds, and with AA representing about ~17% domestic market share, the idea that it will even come close to receiving half allowed grant amounts is very unlikely imo.


"American is eligible for about $6 billion in payroll grants and $6 billion in loans under a stimulus package"

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-heal ... SKBN21H3H1


Declaring they're eligible for $12 Billion doesn't mean they're going to ask for $12 Billion. Parker has acknowledged they don't know the terms of grants and loans. Treasury can ask for equity and collateral for both bailout elements. AA's market cap is only $5.2 Billion. Do you think Parker is going to commit 100% of unencumbered assets and give Treasury half the airline?


Janders said that it wasn't likely that AA could receive that amount, I was simply pointing out how they got to that number.

Additionally FWIW the first line of the article is this, "American Airlines Holdings Inc (AAL.O) intends to apply for up to $12 billion in government aid"
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tphuang
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Thu Apr 02, 2020 12:01 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
AA is pushing back some of its international flights even further

CLT/JFK/DFW/ORD/PHL-FCO appear gone for the summer
PHL-FCO & JFK-MXP show an Oct 1st return, DFW-FCO shows a Nov 1st return

Lots of other routes like JFK-BCN are showing Oct 1st returns


That makes a lot of sense. My guess is that demand won't be there even by Oct/Nov for some of these flights unless they are looking for 60% LF.

Midwestindy wrote:
Janders said that it wasn't likely that AA could receive that amount, I was simply pointing out how they got to that number.

Additionally FWIW the first line of the article is this, "American Airlines Holdings Inc (AAL.O) intends to apply for up to $12 billion in government aid"

also given the news out of NK and F9, they are probably not seeking for the bailout. WN has said they are not sure if they are taking the aids. I don't know if that means the remaining carriers will be eligible for more.
 
Ishrion
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Thu Apr 02, 2020 12:29 pm

Looks like AA has slashed PHL-CMN/DBV/TXL/FCO/VCE/BCN/KEF/MAN/EDI/PRG/BUD/ATH/CDG for the summer.

No longer available on aa.com

In other words, only LHR, ZRH, and MAD remain. For now.
 
usairways85
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Thu Apr 02, 2020 12:34 pm

Inventory management might be still messing around, but it appears to be a large wide scale cut in TA service through at least August. It looks like they retreated back to DFW/ORD for S20 TA service.

Checking random dates in the summer
PHL/ORD - VCE appear zeroed out
PHL/CLT/MIA/JFK - BCN appear zeroed out.
*ORD - BCN remains at the moment
PHL/CLT - CDG appear zeroed out
PHL/CLT - DUB appear zeroed out
*ORD/DFW - DUB remain
PHL-AMS appear zeroed out
*DFW-AMS remains

CLT lost everything except LHR.
 
Ishrion
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Thu Apr 02, 2020 12:41 pm

DFW-MUC/FCO gone for the summer

DFW-DUB, LHR, AMS, FRA, MAD, CDG remain.

ORD-KRK/BUD/PRG gone as well. No longer available through the summer and their inaugural launch dates.
 
Ishrion
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Thu Apr 02, 2020 12:41 pm

usairways85 wrote:
Inventory management might be still messing around, but it appears to be a large wide scale cut in TA service through at least August. It looks like they retreated back to DFW/ORD for S20 TA service.

Checking random dates in the summer
PHL/ORD - VCE appear zeroed out
PHL/CLT/MIA/JFK - BCN appear zeroed out.
*ORD - BCN remains at the moment
PHL/CLT - CDG appear zeroed out
PHL/CLT - DUB appear zeroed out
*ORD/DFW - DUB remain
PHL-AMS appear zeroed out
*DFW-AMS remains

CLT lost everything except LHR.


CLT-MUC is still there

Every PHL route except MAD, LHR, ZRH, has been slashed.
 
Ishrion
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Thu Apr 02, 2020 12:49 pm

ORD-ATH/LHR/DUB/BCN still available

ORD-CDG/VCE/FCO cut
 
Brickell305
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Thu Apr 02, 2020 12:51 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:

I'd be interested to hear the logic behind PHL. With the retirements of E190s, B757s, B767s, & A333s & A321XLRs not coming until 2023, I'd assume that would impact PHL more than any other hub in the short-run, but I didn't imagine an overall pullback significantly greater than what other hubs will see in the long-run given the role Philly serves in AA's network.



"American is eligible for about $6 billion in payroll grants and $6 billion in loans under a stimulus package"

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-heal ... SKBN21H3H1


Declaring they're eligible for $12 Billion doesn't mean they're going to ask for $12 Billion. Parker has acknowledged they don't know the terms of grants and loans. Treasury can ask for equity and collateral for both bailout elements. AA's market cap is only $5.2 Billion. Do you think Parker is going to commit 100% of unencumbered assets and give Treasury half the airline?


Janders said that it wasn't likely that AA could receive that amount, I was simply pointing out how they got to that number.

Additionally FWIW the first line of the article is this, "American Airlines Holdings Inc (AAL.O) intends to apply for up to $12 billion in government aid"

Thank you.
 
Nicknuzzii
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Thu Apr 02, 2020 12:54 pm

It’s really silly in desperate for AA to just give up the whole east coast of the US. Not a smart move to make ORD and DFW your transatlantic gateways...
 
jetsetter629
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Thu Apr 02, 2020 12:56 pm

It took years for AA to build up their TATL network only to be slashed in the blink of a eye. Wonder what will return in Latin America and South Pacific...
 
aerace
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Thu Apr 02, 2020 1:12 pm

Nicknuzzii wrote:
It’s really silly in desperate for AA to just give up the whole east coast of the US. Not a smart move to make ORD and DFW your transatlantic gateways...


Unfortunately, their main TATL gateway isn't approved for COVID testing and lost a ton of early retired aircraft on those routes. I would think these had a lot to do with their decision. I also wouldn't be surprised if further adjustments come from ORD and DFW depending on how this continues.
 
onwFan
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Thu Apr 02, 2020 1:15 pm

Nicknuzzii wrote:
It’s really silly in desperate for AA to just give up the whole east coast of the US. Not a smart move to make ORD and DFW your transatlantic gateways...

They are not making ORD and DFW their gateways... This is a temporary solution given PHL/CLT are not approved international gateways. Long hauls are not going to make make profits for any carrier. It makes complete sense to route passengers through their partner hubs till there is any meaningful demand. Expect others to follow suit.
 
Nicknuzzii
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Thu Apr 02, 2020 1:23 pm

aerace wrote:
Nicknuzzii wrote:
It’s really silly in desperate for AA to just give up the whole east coast of the US. Not a smart move to make ORD and DFW your transatlantic gateways...


Unfortunately, their main TATL gateway isn't approved for COVID testing and lost a ton of early retired aircraft on those routes. I would think these had a lot to do with their decision. I also wouldn't be surprised if further adjustments come from ORD and DFW depending on how this continues.


Are they really expecting to still be testing in June, July, and August?
 
Nicknuzzii
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Thu Apr 02, 2020 1:24 pm

onwFan wrote:
Nicknuzzii wrote:
It’s really silly in desperate for AA to just give up the whole east coast of the US. Not a smart move to make ORD and DFW your transatlantic gateways...

They are not making ORD and DFW their gateways... This is a temporary solution given PHL/CLT are not approved international gateways. Long hauls are not going to make make profits for any carrier. It makes complete sense to route passengers through their partner hubs till there is any meaningful demand. Expect others to follow suit.


I would agree with this but then why is PHL-LHR/MAD/ZRH supposed to fly?
 
Ishrion
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Thu Apr 02, 2020 1:29 pm

Nicknuzzii wrote:
onwFan wrote:
Nicknuzzii wrote:
It’s really silly in desperate for AA to just give up the whole east coast of the US. Not a smart move to make ORD and DFW your transatlantic gateways...

They are not making ORD and DFW their gateways... This is a temporary solution given PHL/CLT are not approved international gateways. Long hauls are not going to make make profits for any carrier. It makes complete sense to route passengers through their partner hubs till there is any meaningful demand. Expect others to follow suit.


I would agree with this but then why is PHL-LHR/MAD/ZRH supposed to fly?


Just wait a bit more. Looks like the changes are still being loaded.
 
aerace
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Thu Apr 02, 2020 1:36 pm

Nicknuzzii wrote:
aerace wrote:
Nicknuzzii wrote:
It’s really silly in desperate for AA to just give up the whole east coast of the US. Not a smart move to make ORD and DFW your transatlantic gateways...


Unfortunately, their main TATL gateway isn't approved for COVID testing and lost a ton of early retired aircraft on those routes. I would think these had a lot to do with their decision. I also wouldn't be surprised if further adjustments come from ORD and DFW depending on how this continues.


Are they really expecting to still be testing in June, July, and August?


This thing is crazy so who the hell knows.
 
usairways85
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Joined: Fri Nov 16, 2001 11:59 am

Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Thu Apr 02, 2020 1:43 pm

Ishrion wrote:
Nicknuzzii wrote:
onwFan wrote:
They are not making ORD and DFW their gateways... This is a temporary solution given PHL/CLT are not approved international gateways. Long hauls are not going to make make profits for any carrier. It makes complete sense to route passengers through their partner hubs till there is any meaningful demand. Expect others to follow suit.


I would agree with this but then why is PHL-LHR/MAD/ZRH supposed to fly?


Just wait a bit more. Looks like the changes are still being loaded.

It looks like they are picking one hub to maintain service to some existing destinations. ORD-BCN, CLT-MUC, PHL-ZRH.
LHR/MAD are OW hubs.

But again, this can all change and likely will change.
 
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cathay747
Posts: 1500
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Thu Apr 02, 2020 4:10 pm

Ishrion wrote:
Nicknuzzii wrote:
onwFan wrote:
They are not making ORD and DFW their gateways... This is a temporary solution given PHL/CLT are not approved international gateways. Long hauls are not going to make make profits for any carrier. It makes complete sense to route passengers through their partner hubs till there is any meaningful demand. Expect others to follow suit.


I would agree with this but then why is PHL-LHR/MAD/ZRH supposed to fly?


Just wait a bit more. Looks like the changes are still being loaded.


Exactly. It's still too soon to tell. But IMHO I feel that the slashing we're seeing is a reflection of what has to be zero or near-zero advance bookings. Let's face it...with all the people now unemployed and with more to come, plus people like me who still have a job but a hefty pay cut (25% in my case)...a lot of which could continue into at least the 3Q...who the hell is going to be flying trans-Atlantic this summer on traditional peak-season vacations to Europe??? Leisure traffic, both domestic and int'l., is going to take a lot longer to recover than business travel.
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Ishrion
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American Airlines Delays BLR, KRK, CMN, TLV, CHC, to 2021

Thu Apr 02, 2020 10:10 pm

Looks like the majority of AA's destinations will not begin this year.

DFW-AKL delayed to winter 2021
LAX-CHC delayed to winter 2021
PHL-CMN delayed to 2021
SEA-BLR moved to 2021
ORD-KRK/BUD/PRG moved to 2021.
DFW-TLV moved to September 2021

Inaugural BOS-LHR moved to October 25, 2020.

23 summer seasonal routes will not fly for summer 2020, with the majority of route cuts at PHL.

http://news.aa.com/news/news-details/20 ... fault.aspx
 
UpNAWAy
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Thu Apr 02, 2020 10:33 pm

This is all kind of mute even if restrictions were lifted soon, traffic to Europe from the US will be off some 80-90% this summer.
 
FSDan
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Re: American Airlines Delays BLR, KRK, CMN, TLV, CHC, to 2021

Thu Apr 02, 2020 11:36 pm

Ishrion wrote:
Looks like the majority of AA's destinations will not begin this year.

DFW-AKL delayed to winter 2021
LAX-CHC delayed to winter 2021
PHL-CMN delayed to 2021
SEA-BLR moved to 2021
ORD-KRK/BUD/PRG moved to 2021.
DFW-TLV moved to September 2021

Inaugural BOS-LHR moved to October 25, 2020.

23 summer seasonal routes will not fly for summer 2020, with the majority of route cuts at PHL.

http://news.aa.com/news/news-details/20 ... fault.aspx


Pretty insane, but not surprising (besides the depth of the PHL cuts). So as of now, the following long haul routes will operate during peak July/August/September schedules:

LAX-LHR
LAX-HND
DFW-LIM
DFW-GRU
DFW-DUB
DFW-LHR
DFW-MAD (not specifically mentioned as resuming or being suspended...)
DFW-CDG (not specifically mentioned as resuming or being suspended...)
DFW-AMS
DFW-FRA
DFW-HND
DFW-ICN
DFW-HKG
ORD-DUB
ORD-LHR
ORD-BCN
ORD-ATH (the pleasant surprise of the day!)
MIA-LIM
MIA-SCL
MIA-EZE
MIA-GRU
MIA-GIG
MIA-LHR
MIA-MAD
CLT-LHR
CLT-MUC
RDU-LHR
PHL-LHR
PHL-MAD
PHL-ZRH
JFK-EZE
JFK-GRU
JFK-LHR
JFK-MAD
JFK-CDG

Then most of the year-round routes are currently slated to return in October.
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slcdeltarumd11
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Joined: Fri Jan 09, 2004 7:30 am

Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Fri Apr 03, 2020 6:52 am

The airlines know people won't feel comfortable by summer and are trying to stop the bleeding. OAG thread is gonna be massive this week for AA. 80 percent reduction in Pacific capacity, a 65 percent reduction in Atlantic capacity and a 48 percent reduction in Latin America capacity for summer. AA has stated summer surge won't happen even with a miracle. Kind of agree at this point , hard to imagine demand filling even that. More cuts I think will have to happen. Gonna be alot of parked planes even retiring the 75s and 76s.
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Fri Apr 03, 2020 7:56 am

Didn't see this posted here:

"American Airlines will go from the pre-crisis typical 250 weekday flights from Washington Reagan National Airport to about 28 in May. It will shrink from close to 100 flights a day at New York’s John F. Kennedy International Airport to just 11 flights a day. At its Dallas-Fort Worth hub, American will decline from nearly 1,000 planned flights a day this summer to around 350"

The cuts are prompted by the sharp demand reduction. “Literally we have flights that are 5% full,” Raja said. Washington flights are often 10-12% full and been hurt by a big decline in government travel, he added.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-heal ... SKBN21K3KT
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chonetsao
Posts: 672
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Re: American Airlines Delays BLR, KRK, CMN, TLV, CHC, to 2021

Fri Apr 03, 2020 8:36 am

FSDan wrote:

Pretty insane, but not surprising (besides the depth of the PHL cuts). So as of now, the following long haul routes will operate during peak July/August/September schedules:

LAX-LHR
LAX-HND
DFW-LIM
DFW-GRU
DFW-DUB
DFW-LHR
DFW-MAD (not specifically mentioned as resuming or being suspended...)
DFW-CDG (not specifically mentioned as resuming or being suspended...)
DFW-AMS
DFW-FRA
DFW-HND
DFW-ICN
DFW-HKG
ORD-DUB
ORD-LHR
ORD-BCN
ORD-ATH (the pleasant surprise of the day!)
MIA-LIM
MIA-SCL
MIA-EZE
MIA-GRU
MIA-GIG
MIA-LHR
MIA-MAD
CLT-LHR
CLT-MUC
RDU-LHR
PHL-LHR
PHL-MAD
PHL-ZRH
JFK-EZE
JFK-GRU
JFK-LHR
JFK-MAD
JFK-CDG

Then most of the year-round routes are currently slated to return in October.


Wouldn't all long haul from CLT, RDU and PHL be pending government approval due to the 10 getaway rules at present? What if the administration decide to open travel but still restrict the entry to certain airports only to do arrival checks? I know I am speculating, but I think it could be a likely scenario.
 
Detroit313
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Fri Apr 03, 2020 8:56 am

Out of Chicago in June the only city served in Continental Europe is Athens, Greece!

It doesn't mean that it is going to happen, but the fact that there would ever be a month when AA would only serve Athens, Greece in continental Europe out of Chicago is something insane. No Spain, Italy, France, but Greece!
 
onwFan
Posts: 468
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2016 4:02 am

Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Fri Apr 03, 2020 12:06 pm

Detroit313 wrote:
Out of Chicago in June the only city served in Continental Europe is Athens, Greece!

It doesn't mean that it is going to happen, but the fact that there would ever be a month when AA would only serve Athens, Greece in continental Europe out of Chicago is something insane. No Spain, Italy, France, but Greece!

I think they are trying to retain flights from one hub each to most destinations if possible, thats it. Will pull down based on how the situation evolved. There’s not much to read into...
 
TidyCat
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Fri Apr 03, 2020 12:44 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
Didn't see this posted here:

"American Airlines will go from the pre-crisis typical 250 weekday flights from Washington Reagan National Airport to about 28 in May. It will shrink from close to 100 flights a day at New York’s John F. Kennedy International Airport to just 11 flights a day. At its Dallas-Fort Worth hub, American will decline from nearly 1,000 planned flights a day this summer to around 350"

The cuts are prompted by the sharp demand reduction. “Literally we have flights that are 5% full,” Raja said. Washington flights are often 10-12% full and been hurt by a big decline in government travel, he added.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-heal ... SKBN21K3KT


.... it’s OFFICIAL...DCA CATERING IS CLOSING as of new May bid.
Rumored that LSG will take over remaining AA mainline catering. Republic will take over BOS & LGA shuttle operations, and express will be reduced to a handful of flights.
What’s next?
 
Miamiairport
Posts: 694
Joined: Tue Apr 10, 2018 8:14 pm

Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Fri Apr 03, 2020 1:29 pm

28 flights a day from DCA! That just boggles the mind. There's no doubt in my mind that AA might not lay off workers until September but will severely cut hours and seek to void labor contracts. The airline industry is going to take years to recover. Post September the number of firing will be unthinkable and horribly sad.
 
brooklynchris13
Posts: 297
Joined: Fri Mar 19, 2010 12:11 am

Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Fri Apr 03, 2020 1:46 pm

Miamiairport wrote:
28 flights a day from DCA! That just boggles the mind. There's no doubt in my mind that AA might not lay off workers until September but will severely cut hours and seek to void labor contracts. The airline industry is going to take years to recover. Post September the number of firing will be unthinkable and horribly sad.


One side effect of this will be direct impact on all the folks in DC (thinking Congress) who have grown quite accustomed to their direct flights into DCA. Perhaps it will wake them up to the need to take very strong action to ensure that our US Aviation Industry does not collapse when they have to wait in ORD or DFW for four hours waiting for the one flight that day to DCA.
"Be the change you want to see in the world" (mg)
 
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chepos
Posts: 7273
Joined: Sat Dec 02, 2000 9:40 am

American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Fri Apr 03, 2020 1:53 pm

brooklynchris13 wrote:
Miamiairport wrote:
28 flights a day from DCA! That just boggles the mind. There's no doubt in my mind that AA might not lay off workers until September but will severely cut hours and seek to void labor contracts. The airline industry is going to take years to recover. Post September the number of firing will be unthinkable and horribly sad.


One side effect of this will be direct impact on all the folks in DC (thinking Congress) who have grown quite accustomed to their direct flights into DCA. Perhaps it will wake them up to the need to take very strong action to ensure that our US Aviation Industry does not collapse when they have to wait in ORD or DFW for four hours waiting for the one flight that day to DCA.

That amount of flying is for the May schedule..... when the airline is cutting 80% of domestic flying. Those politicians may or may not be actively traveling next month depending on how this virus behaves.


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Midwestindy
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Fri Apr 03, 2020 10:58 pm

Not surprising, but a good visual. For reference, ABQ had one passenger
Image

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KFTG
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Fri Apr 03, 2020 11:59 pm

Did you buy AAL? I'm considering it.
 
MrPeanut
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Re: AA's PHX Hub in Jeapordy?

Sat Apr 04, 2020 12:27 am

MAH4546 wrote:
AA is not closing LAX. Please.

It's feeder airline at LAX is literally shutting down on April 7th. It will reshuffle things in May. I believe the planes are being transferred to another one of AA's feeder carriers.


They are not closing LAX, but the station will resemble a focus city not hub. Even AA has publicly stated China flights most likely will not be back. As I stated a few days ago, the LAX hub is not necessary anymore after dropping the China flights - which represented half of its TPAC gateway. This news is now public (see link below). The TPAC flights that remain are easily filled via code share and feed from a handful of routes that will remain non-stop (DFW, ORD, JFK, LAS, PHL, BOS, PHX, MIA). PHX is the better domestic connecting option over LAX for a myriad of reasons.


https://thepointsguy.com/news/american- ... ronavirus/
 
MAH4546
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Re: AA's PHX Hub in Jeapordy?

Sat Apr 04, 2020 12:45 am

MrPeanut wrote:
MAH4546 wrote:
AA is not closing LAX. Please.

It's feeder airline at LAX is literally shutting down on April 7th. It will reshuffle things in May. I believe the planes are being transferred to another one of AA's feeder carriers.


They are not closing LAX, but the station will resemble a focus city not hub. Even AA has publicly stated China flights most likely will not be back. As I stated a few days ago, the LAX hub is not necessary anymore after dropping the China flights - which represented half of its TPAC gateway. This news is now public (see link below). The TPAC flights that remain are easily filled via code share and feed from a handful of routes that will remain non-stop (DFW, ORD, JFK, LAS, PHL, BOS, PHX, MIA). PHX is the better domestic connecting option over LAX for a myriad of reasons.


https://thepointsguy.com/news/american- ... ronavirus/



No, AA will continue to have a hub at LAX.

China flying resumes in October if things stabilize. AA did indeed consider not resume those routes a few months ago, but has ruled against that.

AA lost it’s main regional partner at LAX and all Eagle flying suspended for April. A new schedule for May will be published tomorrow night. There will be significant cuts at LAX, of course, but even DFW is being cut by about 65% and Phoenix will be cut by about 75-80%. Reagan will be pretty much just hub services and a few others as it’s cut by 85%, but that hub, like LAX, isn’t closing either. And Delta isn’t closing it’s JFK hub even though it has suspended every single trans-Atlantic flight from JFK.

PHX is easily the hub in most trouble if things don’t get better, although I don’t foresee any hub closures.
a.
 
slcdeltarumd11
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Re: AA's PHX Hub in Jeapordy?

Sat Apr 04, 2020 2:32 am

In theory Can AA move it's China flights from LAX to SEA?

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