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MAH4546
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Wed Jul 01, 2020 3:51 pm

I imagine in the very, very long term, 2022-23 frame, some of this stuff will come back when demand recovers. Charlotte-Paris and Miami-Milan for example are no brainers to return down the line when leisure demand recovers. I bet those are the first two to come back.

There is also some strategy to relying on joint venture and codeshare partners here. Not just with Alaska, but for example Miami-Barcelona still comes back in October but Madrid is pushed to summer 2022, as Iberia will simply handle Madrid. And Miami-Brasilia is gone, but Gol has the market covered.

LAX will be interesting as Delta and UA I think will be following suit in major cuts there as airlines retreat to core hubs and we might see all three “reset” what they do with LAX. I imagine UA and DL will also not be quick to relaunch LAXPVG for example. AA has always traditionally been strong domestically at LAX, though, and it’s a huge OW hub.
a.
 
NYCAAer
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Wed Jul 01, 2020 4:38 pm

MAH4546 wrote:
I imagine in the very, very long term, 2022-23 frame, some of this stuff will come back when demand recovers. Charlotte-Paris and Miami-Milan for example are no brainers to return down the line when leisure demand recovers. I bet those are the first two to come back.

There is also some strategy to relying on joint venture and codeshare partners here. Not just with Alaska, but for example Miami-Barcelona still comes back in October but Madrid is pushed to summer 2022, as Iberia will simply handle Madrid. And Miami-Brasilia is gone, but Gol has the market covered.

LAX will be interesting as Delta and UA I think will be following suit in major cuts there as airlines retreat to core hubs and we might see all three “reset” what they do with LAX. I imagine UA and DL will also not be quick to relaunch LAXPVG for example. AA has always traditionally been strong domestically at LAX, though, and it’s a huge OW hub.


CLT-CDG and MIA-MXP don’t have the premium demand as other markets, it will be a while before they come back any time soon. The passengers who would have been on the CLT flight out of CDG can just as easily be funneled through PHL. MXP has been marginal for AA out of MIA even before COVID-19.
 
MAH4546
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Wed Jul 01, 2020 4:56 pm

NYCAAer wrote:
MAH4546 wrote:
I imagine in the very, very long term, 2022-23 frame, some of this stuff will come back when demand recovers. Charlotte-Paris and Miami-Milan for example are no brainers to return down the line when leisure demand recovers. I bet those are the first two to come back.

There is also some strategy to relying on joint venture and codeshare partners here. Not just with Alaska, but for example Miami-Barcelona still comes back in October but Madrid is pushed to summer 2022, as Iberia will simply handle Madrid. And Miami-Brasilia is gone, but Gol has the market covered.

LAX will be interesting as Delta and UA I think will be following suit in major cuts there as airlines retreat to core hubs and we might see all three “reset” what they do with LAX. I imagine UA and DL will also not be quick to relaunch LAXPVG for example. AA has always traditionally been strong domestically at LAX, though, and it’s a huge OW hub.


CLT-CDG and MIA-MXP don’t have the premium demand as other markets, it will be a while before they come back any time soon. The passengers who would have been on the CLT flight out of CDG can just as easily be funneled through PHL. MXP has been marginal for AA out of MIA even before COVID-19.


MIAMXP has always been a strong business market due to the business connections between Miami and northern Italy. It definitely has been marginal with Air Italy though.

They’ll be the first two back, I stand by my statement. Along with CLTFCO.
a.
 
NYCAAer
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Wed Jul 01, 2020 5:04 pm

MAH4546 wrote:
NYCAAer wrote:
MAH4546 wrote:
I imagine in the very, very long term, 2022-23 frame, some of this stuff will come back when demand recovers. Charlotte-Paris and Miami-Milan for example are no brainers to return down the line when leisure demand recovers. I bet those are the first two to come back.

There is also some strategy to relying on joint venture and codeshare partners here. Not just with Alaska, but for example Miami-Barcelona still comes back in October but Madrid is pushed to summer 2022, as Iberia will simply handle Madrid. And Miami-Brasilia is gone, but Gol has the market covered.

LAX will be interesting as Delta and UA I think will be following suit in major cuts there as airlines retreat to core hubs and we might see all three “reset” what they do with LAX. I imagine UA and DL will also not be quick to relaunch LAXPVG for example. AA has always traditionally been strong domestically at LAX, though, and it’s a huge OW hub.


CLT-CDG and MIA-MXP don’t have the premium demand as other markets, it will be a while before they come back any time soon. The passengers who would have been on the CLT flight out of CDG can just as easily be funneled through PHL. MXP has been marginal for AA out of MIA even before COVID-19.


MIAMXP has always been a strong business market due to the business connections between Miami and northern Italy. It definitely has been marginal with Air Italy though.

They’ll be the first two back, I stand by my statement. Along with CLTFCO.


We’ll see. Time will tell! I was right about AA pulling out of LGW forever.
 
MAH4546
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Wed Jul 01, 2020 5:52 pm

NYCAAer wrote:
MAH4546 wrote:
NYCAAer wrote:

CLT-CDG and MIA-MXP don’t have the premium demand as other markets, it will be a while before they come back any time soon. The passengers who would have been on the CLT flight out of CDG can just as easily be funneled through PHL. MXP has been marginal for AA out of MIA even before COVID-19.


MIAMXP has always been a strong business market due to the business connections between Miami and northern Italy. It definitely has been marginal with Air Italy though.

They’ll be the first two back, I stand by my statement. Along with CLTFCO.


We’ll see. Time will tell! I was right about AA pulling out of LGW forever.


It'll be an interesting 2-4 years. When travel bounces back people are going to seek the familiar, which is why I think stuff like Paris and Rome from a major hub (American love Paris and Rome) and Milan from Miami (Europeans, and especially Italian, love Miami) will be the kind of stuff that bounces back first. Miami-Milan is such a massive local market traditionally (of course, all EU-US markets have shrunk to pretty much nothing now) that it's hard to imagine somebody won't fill it early on in the rebound period. Same with Asia - LA to China will bounce back first, might leave an opening for AA to explore re-entering in a few years. I can't imagine AA will exit LAX-China in the long-run.

And then all these moves also pre-suppose that competitors will do the same. If AA pulls LAXPVG but DL and UA do not, then AA might reverse course. We've seen it before. It's a game of chicken.
Last edited by MAH4546 on Wed Jul 01, 2020 6:09 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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ABEguy
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Wed Jul 01, 2020 5:58 pm

jfklganyc wrote:
ABEguy wrote:
jfklganyc wrote:

So how does that help them fly to DBV in the spring?

What are we kidding here guys?

The company is on the verge of collapse… You guys are looking at 787s to Athens from two different cities...

It is a dummy sked that will never be flown.

The equipment isn’t there to fly it. The finances aren’t there to fly it. And, likely, the pax aren’t there to fly it


This is like a form of TDS except with AA. I laid out for you the orders of wide bodies that are showing up as we speak. Robert Isom said just 2 days ago they’re still coming. All the wide bodies parked during the crisis were already planned to be retired, plus 757 and E190. But you continue repeating yourself with what you wish would happen, not what’s actually happening.

Again maybe the 2021 summer schedule will be drawn down further if there’s no demand, but it will not be because of lack of aircraft. Read that again and repeat it as many times as you need to in order to understand.



DBV gone. Just saying


Okay yes I see that. Again I said if there’s no demand the schedule could be drawn down. It’s not because of shortage of aircraft.
 
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UPlog
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Wed Jul 01, 2020 6:15 pm

What happens with all the investments AA is making at LAX with combining T4-5 and preferential access to TBIT gates?
I fly your boxes
 
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LAXintl
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Wed Jul 01, 2020 10:26 pm

AA has formally notified DOT its intention to return 7 weekly China Zone-1 frequencies back to the DOT vacated from LAX-PEK, and also to move 7 weekly Zone-1 frequencies from LAX to SEA to enable proposed PVG service commencing March 28, 2021.

Proposed SEA-PVG schedule

AA183 SEA-PVG 1250-1625+1
AA182 PVG-SEA 1825-1510

AA at the same time request dormancy waiver extension so allow DFW-PEK service to resume March 28, 2021 instead of previously approved waiver till October 25, 2020.

Docket DOT-OST-2020-0035
From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
 
jayunited
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Wed Jul 01, 2020 11:26 pm

American is following UA's lead, starting this fall AA and UA will reduce FA's staffing on their widebodies and some transcon flights. According to View from the Wing AA will reduce staffing to FAA minimum +1. AA's 77Ws - reduced to 11 FA's, 77Es/789s - reduced to 9 FA's, 788s - reduced to 8 FA's and A321Ts - reduced to 5 FA's.

Also somehow View from the Wing got a hold of an AA internal memo advising FA's to expect flat or moderate growth at bases located at BOS, SFO, and DCA. At the same time they should expect notable decreases at their PHX, LAX, and MIA bases. I think AA like UA will see a higher number of FA's commuting come October especially if bases like PHX, LAX and MIA are senior. Once all the good lines are taken I wonder if FA's at those bases will look to other bases to see if they can hold a great line. Also there is no mention of a SEA base so I'm wondering will AA's SFO based FA's staff AA's international flights out of SEA?

https://viewfromthewing.com/american-ai ... october-1/
 
Ishrion
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Wed Jul 01, 2020 11:30 pm

From BA744PHX in the Phoenix Aviation Thread, AA will use the 787-9 on PHX-HNL from November 19 to March 27, replacing the seasonal A330-300.

How the 787-9 will get to PHX is currently unknown. AA is flying double 787-9s on DFW-HNL, so could it operate DFW-HNL-PHX-HNL-DFW?

While it's possible, the aircraft would have to sit in HNL for around 5 hours, so it's likely the domestic 787-9 sector hasn't been loaded yet.
 
RemoFlyer
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Thu Jul 02, 2020 12:38 am

Ishrion wrote:
From BA744PHX in the Phoenix Aviation Thread, AA will use the 787-9 on PHX-HNL from November 19 to March 27, replacing the seasonal A330-300.

How the 787-9 will get to PHX is currently unknown. AA is flying double 787-9s on DFW-HNL, so could it operate DFW-HNL-PHX-HNL-DFW?

While it's possible, the aircraft would have to sit in HNL for around 5 hours, so it's likely the domestic 787-9 sector hasn't been loaded yet.


they will have 4 flts to HNL on the 789 DFW(2) ORD and PHX. that's how they will be rotated, like what they do for lhr and the 77w/772
 
apodino
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Thu Jul 02, 2020 2:19 am

jayunited wrote:
American is following UA's lead, starting this fall AA and UA will reduce FA's staffing on their widebodies and some transcon flights. According to View from the Wing AA will reduce staffing to FAA minimum +1. AA's 77Ws - reduced to 11 FA's, 77Es/789s - reduced to 9 FA's, 788s - reduced to 8 FA's and A321Ts - reduced to 5 FA's.

Also somehow View from the Wing got a hold of an AA internal memo advising FA's to expect flat or moderate growth at bases located at BOS, SFO, and DCA. At the same time they should expect notable decreases at their PHX, LAX, and MIA bases. I think AA like UA will see a higher number of FA's commuting come October especially if bases like PHX, LAX and MIA are senior. Once all the good lines are taken I wonder if FA's at those bases will look to other bases to see if they can hold a great line. Also there is no mention of a SEA base so I'm wondering will AA's SFO based FA's staff AA's international flights out of SEA?

https://viewfromthewing.com/american-ai ... october-1/


Looks like the Flight Attendants Union is going to file a Grievance on this. Also of note STL and RDU are closing, and it looks like AA is going to downsize the Latin FA bases as well. Another report I read said that RDU and STL would be satellites of CLT and DFW respectively, but I don't buy this. (Basically, the way it works at AA is you have one Base that covers multiple Airports. For example, MIA trips can start or end not only at MIA but also PBI or FLL) I can buy CLT/RDU a little but not DFW/STL.

And its important to note that FAA minimum only applies on the widebody side, the Narrowbody fleet already operates with just the FAA minimum.
 
apodino
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Thu Jul 02, 2020 2:25 am

Follow up to my last post. Going forward this is how the hubs will be positioned.

JFK/LGA - pretty much what it is now. I don't expect any further cuts or big additions here, even when Terminal B fully opens in LGA.
PHL - Primary Europe gateway when CBP allows it.
CLT - Exactly what it is now, primary East Coast connecting hub with key Europe flights
MIA - Will still be the primary Latin America gateway
ORD - What it is now, a secondary East-West connecting hub and secondary Europe gateway.
DFW - Not only will it remain the largest AA hub, it will become the primary Asia hub going forward.
PHX - Exactly what it is now, strong domestic hub with some international connections
LAX- Will shift to a more domestic hub.
 
 
Rdeggendorfer
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Thu Jul 02, 2020 3:31 am

apodino wrote:
jayunited wrote:
American is following UA's lead, starting this fall AA and UA will reduce FA's staffing on their widebodies and some transcon flights. According to View from the Wing AA will reduce staffing to FAA minimum +1. AA's 77Ws - reduced to 11 FA's, 77Es/789s - reduced to 9 FA's, 788s - reduced to 8 FA's and A321Ts - reduced to 5 FA's.

Also somehow View from the Wing got a hold of an AA internal memo advising FA's to expect flat or moderate growth at bases located at BOS, SFO, and DCA. At the same time they should expect notable decreases at their PHX, LAX, and MIA bases. I think AA like UA will see a higher number of FA's commuting come October especially if bases like PHX, LAX and MIA are senior. Once all the good lines are taken I wonder if FA's at those bases will look to other bases to see if they can hold a great line. Also there is no mention of a SEA base so I'm wondering will AA's SFO based FA's staff AA's international flights out of SEA?

https://viewfromthewing.com/american-ai ... october-1/


Looks like the Flight Attendants Union is going to file a Grievance on this. Also of note STL and RDU are closing, and it looks like AA is going to downsize the Latin FA bases as well. Another report I read said that RDU and STL would be satellites of CLT and DFW respectively, but I don't buy this. (Basically, the way it works at AA is you have one Base that covers multiple Airports. For example, MIA trips can start or end not only at MIA but also PBI or FLL) I can buy CLT/RDU a little but not DFW/STL.

And its important to note that FAA minimum only applies on the widebody side, the Narrowbody fleet already operates with just the FAA minimum.


It is accurate, you are confusing “co-terminal” with “satellite”. LAX for instance has SAN and LAS for satellites and SNA and ONT for co-terminals. BUR and LGB could be co-terminals as well. In your MIA example, you mentioned only the co-terminals for MIA. They also have ATL as a satellite with MCO to come.
 
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LAXintl
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Thu Jul 02, 2020 5:21 am

UPlog wrote:
What happens with all the investments AA is making at LAX with combining T4-5 and preferential access to TBIT gates?


Suppose the T4/5 project can be scaled back if needed either operationally or for CapEx reason.
For TBIT they can still use as needed as I am sure LAWA would uphold their end of the deal, though with reduced widebody international flying AA can probably manage with the existing 2 FIS capable widebody gates in T4 to keep things simple.
From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
 
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LAXintl
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Thu Jul 02, 2020 6:14 am

From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
 
MAH4546
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Thu Jul 02, 2020 6:53 am

jayunited wrote:
American is following UA's lead, starting this fall AA and UA will reduce FA's staffing on their widebodies and some transcon flights. According to View from the Wing AA will reduce staffing to FAA minimum +1. AA's 77Ws - reduced to 11 FA's, 77Es/789s - reduced to 9 FA's, 788s - reduced to 8 FA's and A321Ts - reduced to 5 FA's.

Also somehow View from the Wing got a hold of an AA internal memo advising FA's to expect flat or moderate growth at bases located at BOS, SFO, and DCA. At the same time they should expect notable decreases at their PHX, LAX, and MIA bases. I think AA like UA will see a higher number of FA's commuting come October especially if bases like PHX, LAX and MIA are senior. Once all the good lines are taken I wonder if FA's at those bases will look to other bases to see if they can hold a great line. Also there is no mention of a SEA base so I'm wondering will AA's SFO based FA's staff AA's international flights out of SEA?

https://viewfromthewing.com/american-ai ... october-1/


The PHX base cut is interesting though. LAX is explained by loss of so much long-haul (and a lot of the domestic is Eagle). At MIA, significant amount of the flying is international and they are reducing number of FAd in international flights plus they are keeping the South America bases (I think it’s Lima, Bogota, Santiago and Buenos Aires?) open and they need to balance those lines with MIA flying.

But Phoenix? Why?
a.
 
Ishrion
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Thu Jul 02, 2020 3:35 pm

Ishrion wrote:

Speculation for routes in Summer 2021:
- PHL-CMN seems to be out the window.
- ORD-KRK seems to be gone already, if not, it'll be a shorter season.
- DFW-MUC dropped/reduced.
- PHL-EDI/SNN dropped or reduced frequencies
- PHL-TXL shifts to BER and decreases frequencies
- ORD-VCE/PRG/BUD dropped?

Questions:
- What happened to SEA-LHR?
- Will SEA-BLR still go through?
- Is DFW-TLV still set for September 2021?


Well. That went fairly well. SEA-BLR/LHR confirmed, DFW-TLV still onboard but delayed to winter 2021.
 
Vctony
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Thu Jul 02, 2020 3:45 pm

MAH4546 wrote:
jayunited wrote:
American is following UA's lead, starting this fall AA and UA will reduce FA's staffing on their widebodies and some transcon flights. According to View from the Wing AA will reduce staffing to FAA minimum +1. AA's 77Ws - reduced to 11 FA's, 77Es/789s - reduced to 9 FA's, 788s - reduced to 8 FA's and A321Ts - reduced to 5 FA's.

Also somehow View from the Wing got a hold of an AA internal memo advising FA's to expect flat or moderate growth at bases located at BOS, SFO, and DCA. At the same time they should expect notable decreases at their PHX, LAX, and MIA bases. I think AA like UA will see a higher number of FA's commuting come October especially if bases like PHX, LAX and MIA are senior. Once all the good lines are taken I wonder if FA's at those bases will look to other bases to see if they can hold a great line. Also there is no mention of a SEA base so I'm wondering will AA's SFO based FA's staff AA's international flights out of SEA?

https://viewfromthewing.com/american-ai ... october-1/


The PHX base cut is interesting though. LAX is explained by loss of so much long-haul (and a lot of the domestic is Eagle). At MIA, significant amount of the flying is international and they are reducing number of FAd in international flights plus they are keeping the South America bases (I think it’s Lima, Bogota, Santiago and Buenos Aires?) open and they need to balance those lines with MIA flying.

But Phoenix? Why?


I'm curious about PHX as well.

This indicates that we could be looking at a substantial mainline cut at PHX. Maybe we're looking at it being right sized to more of a "focus city".

Most PHX flying is domestic and the base was already cut about a year ago (with several FAs moved to LAX and DFW).
 
RemoFlyer
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Thu Jul 02, 2020 6:11 pm

Twitter update from JonNYC (assuming its meant to be public)

PHX, LAX expected to lose 800+ flight attendants, MIA maybe more than that. These are the "significant reduction" bases outlined in the info distributed yesterday
- 30% smaller management saves $500 million dollars
-money lost per day is reduced to $35 million now
 
kavok
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Thu Jul 02, 2020 6:58 pm

To me, the big question is why the flat to modest increase at SFO? Being that SFO is primarily United territory, and with most AA flights from SFO going to other AA hubs, why not shrink there if shrinkage is needed?
 
Vctony
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Thu Jul 02, 2020 7:01 pm

RemoFlyer wrote:
Twitter update from JonNYC (assuming its meant to be public)

PHX, LAX expected to lose 800+ flight attendants, MIA maybe more than that. These are the "significant reduction" bases outlined in the info distributed yesterday
- 30% smaller management saves $500 million dollars
-money lost per day is reduced to $35 million now


To me that screams that PHX will be hit with the buzzsaw.

We have an idea as to where some of the LAX cuts are coming from (the reduced international flying).

PHX cuts will be severe (each flight requires fewer FAs so to cut that many FAs means a larger cut of flying).

WN is currently the largest carrier at PHX in terms of passengers and it doesn't appear that this stat is likely to change.
 
Miamiairport
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Thu Jul 02, 2020 7:03 pm

kavok wrote:
To me, the big question is why the flat to modest increase at SFO? Being that SFO is primarily United territory, and with most AA flights from SFO going to other AA hubs, why not shrink there if shrinkage is needed?


Maybe AA is expecting more feed from/to AS at SFO?
 
MAH4546
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Thu Jul 02, 2020 7:23 pm

Vctony wrote:
RemoFlyer wrote:
Twitter update from JonNYC (assuming its meant to be public)

PHX, LAX expected to lose 800+ flight attendants, MIA maybe more than that. These are the "significant reduction" bases outlined in the info distributed yesterday
- 30% smaller management saves $500 million dollars
-money lost per day is reduced to $35 million now


To me that screams that PHX will be hit with the buzzsaw.

We have an idea as to where some of the LAX cuts are coming from (the reduced international flying).

PHX cuts will be severe (each flight requires fewer FAs so to cut that many FAs means a larger cut of flying).

WN is currently the largest carrier at PHX in terms of passengers and it doesn't appear that this stat is likely to change.


Yeah that's crazy. Or it can mean a lot more regional flying? It's a heavy mainline hub.

International flights are more heavily staffed, obviously, and with AA going to the FAA minimum staffing on these flights the massive cuts at MIA and LAX can be more attributed to that than proportionally large cuts in flying (plus the Miami lines are shared with the South America bases which aren't closing). But that can't explain Phoenix.
a.
 
HardeesBiscuit
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Thu Jul 02, 2020 8:15 pm

Miamiairport wrote:
HardeesBiscuit wrote:
cathay747 wrote:

Enjoy yourself.

Maybe it hasn't exploded throughout the whole state, but it has and continues to do so in the big, popular, heavily-populated areas where all the "young people" want to go for beaches and booze and partying, turning all those areas into super-spreading breeding grounds, because they're all invincible and don't give a good goddamn for anyone but themselves...how many have been on TV saying crap like "well I'm 25 and not worried about it"? Then throw in the local wacko residents with their screaming that "it's my body, my choice, and it's my right to not wear a mask" and I just want to throw up.

Sorry to digress from the thread topic but I had to get that rant off my chest. Back to AA network info...


Plenty of reason to travel to Florida without night life booze and partying. But you seem to have a chip on your shoulder that people are traveling. Enough that you want to throw up. I don't wear a mask either unless I'm on a plane (yes I've travelled by plane during all this). AA sees the traffic and they're wisely adding flights to make $, even if it pisses you off.


People go to FL during the winter time for the weather. I lived in FL for 7 years and before than made more than a 20 trips a year for nearly 20 years. In the summer time the weather here is horrible. It's our "winter" and we'd rather deal with endless humidity and non stop storms (and an occasional hurricane) for 4 month than snow, ice and freezing temperatures for 4 months. Summer time people, mostly young people come for the nightlife and beach.

Throughout the pandemic my flying in and out of MIA has not slowed down. Who do I see on these packed flights? Young people ready to party. Take away the partying and the beaches what do you have? Walking around in god awful humidity looking at boarded up bars and clubs. Not exactly an exciting memory.

Now MCO has Disney. And the weather in Orlando in the summer is far more harsh than on the coasts. Disney is not re-opening. That leaves TPA/Clearwater and Ft Myers/Naples and that crowd particularly the latter skews older. In other words take away MCO, FLL and MIA and tourism and ergo air travel take a huge hit. I don't hate anything I'm just realistic about what young people want. As I said in another thread I predict that CUN will soon be rolling out the welcome mat just like they did for Spring Breakers when several FL towns decided throngs of college kids wanting to party was not want they wanted.


Um, Disney actually IS opening. Magic Kingdom + Animal Kingdom opens July 11 Disney Studios and EPCOT on July 15. Universal has already been open.
Watch out, Karen, here we come!
https://disneyworld.disney.go.com/travel-information/


Re: the AA cuts & international, interesting that although they're changing the RDU flight attendant base to a satellite instead of a base, that they ARE adding back the RDU-LHR international flight. Which ought to put the perpetual questions to rest about "is it, profitable, doesn't it need a subsidy, why is it flown, probably will be cut." Obviously it makes cash or it wouldn't return, espcially on as a 777-300, AA's largest aircraft.
 
onwFan
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Thu Jul 02, 2020 10:32 pm

RemoFlyer wrote:
Twitter update from JonNYC (assuming its meant to be public)

PHX, LAX expected to lose 800+ flight attendants, MIA maybe more than that. These are the "significant reduction" bases outlined in the info distributed yesterday
- 30% smaller management saves $500 million dollars
-money lost per day is reduced to $35 million now

Can someone plase shed some light on the current sizes of their FA bases at LAX and PHX?
 
MrPeanut
Posts: 133
Joined: Fri Nov 23, 2018 8:36 pm

Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Thu Jul 02, 2020 11:31 pm

MAH4546 wrote:
Vctony wrote:
RemoFlyer wrote:
Twitter update from JonNYC (assuming its meant to be public)

PHX, LAX expected to lose 800+ flight attendants, MIA maybe more than that. These are the "significant reduction" bases outlined in the info distributed yesterday
- 30% smaller management saves $500 million dollars
-money lost per day is reduced to $35 million now


To me that screams that PHX will be hit with the buzzsaw.

We have an idea as to where some of the LAX cuts are coming from (the reduced international flying).

PHX cuts will be severe (each flight requires fewer FAs so to cut that many FAs means a larger cut of flying).

WN is currently the largest carrier at PHX in terms of passengers and it doesn't appear that this stat is likely to change.


Yeah that's crazy. Or it can mean a lot more regional flying? It's a heavy mainline hub.

International flights are more heavily staffed, obviously, and with AA going to the FAA minimum staffing on these flights the massive cuts at MIA and LAX can be more attributed to that than proportionally large cuts in flying (plus the Miami lines are shared with the South America bases which aren't closing). But that can't explain Phoenix.


PHX has a heavy legacy US flight attendant employee base. In fact, many routes out of LAX were staffed by PHX based FA’s. This reduction was already in the works last year, but was far from completed. Considering the depth of the reduction at LAX and taking into consideration that some flights out of LAX pre-covid were still staffed by PHX based FA’s would indicate a larger right sizing hitting LAX beyond the international flight reductions.
 
MrPeanut
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Thu Jul 02, 2020 11:51 pm

BNAMealer wrote:
janders wrote:
Well well. AA drops marginal LAX longhauls and hopes they will do better from SEA?

Me thinks they are placing too much hope on AS and ignoring the obvious that SEA is not only a smaller pie to eat from, but it already has DL as a player. Plus SEA not exactly well connected to the AA network unlike LA is.

Be fun watching how things play out in the years to come.


Me thinks this is AA positioning themselves to acquire AS down the road, when things recover.



This cannot happen for two reasons:
1. AA’s market cap is only 43% bigger than AS even though AA has 5 times the amount of revenue

AND

2. AA has too much debt

You couldn’t fund the acquisition with equity because it would cut stockholder by more than half. You couldn’t fund it with debt because AA already has too much debt. Assuming AA could find a financial institution willing to lend it debt, it would be at card level interest rates such as what they were charged in their last debt offering.
 
cm642
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Fri Jul 03, 2020 6:25 am

MrPeanut wrote:
MAH4546 wrote:
Vctony wrote:

To me that screams that PHX will be hit with the buzzsaw.

We have an idea as to where some of the LAX cuts are coming from (the reduced international flying).

PHX cuts will be severe (each flight requires fewer FAs so to cut that many FAs means a larger cut of flying).

WN is currently the largest carrier at PHX in terms of passengers and it doesn't appear that this stat is likely to change.


Yeah that's crazy. Or it can mean a lot more regional flying? It's a heavy mainline hub.

International flights are more heavily staffed, obviously, and with AA going to the FAA minimum staffing on these flights the massive cuts at MIA and LAX can be more attributed to that than proportionally large cuts in flying (plus the Miami lines are shared with the South America bases which aren't closing). But that can't explain Phoenix.


PHX has a heavy legacy US flight attendant employee base. In fact, many routes out of LAX were staffed by PHX based FA’s. This reduction was already in the works last year, but was far from completed. Considering the depth of the reduction at LAX and taking into consideration that some flights out of LAX pre-covid were still staffed by PHX based FA’s would indicate a larger right sizing hitting LAX beyond the international flight reductions.


I agree, I remember them saying last year that PHX was way overstaffed in terms of flight attendants and that they were first looking for people to voluntarily transfer to other bases then just transfer whatever was left over. I'm assuming PHX was still overstaffed and since a lot of PHX based flight attendants also staffed LAX flights they most likely don't need as many with the drawback of LAX, so my guess is for those left over instead of transferring them they'll just let them go.
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Fri Jul 03, 2020 1:25 pm

AA posted its busiest day by a wide margin yesterday, around 35% of LYs traffic, but 9% higher than July 1.

Still operating on June schedule levels for the next few days
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jplatts
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Fri Jul 03, 2020 4:46 pm

apodino wrote:
Follow up to my last post. Going forward this is how the hubs will be positioned.

JFK/LGA - pretty much what it is now. I don't expect any further cuts or big additions here, even when Terminal B fully opens in LGA.
PHL - Primary Europe gateway when CBP allows it.
CLT - Exactly what it is now, primary East Coast connecting hub with key Europe flights
MIA - Will still be the primary Latin America gateway
ORD - What it is now, a secondary East-West connecting hub and secondary Europe gateway.
DFW - Not only will it remain the largest AA hub, it will become the primary Asia hub going forward.
PHX - Exactly what it is now, strong domestic hub with some international connections
LAX- Will shift to a more domestic hub.


AA also has a hub at DCA in addition to JFK, LGA, PHL, CLT, MIA, ORD, DFW, PHX, and LAX. AA will also likely keep nonstop service out of DCA to some non-AA hub destinations, even if AA downsizes its DCA operation, due to AA having nonstop service out of DCA to some domestic destinations not served nonstop from DCA, IAD, or BWI on other airlines.

I had also previously mentioned that most of the destinations that AA currently serves nonstop from its DCA hub already have nonstop service out of IAD or BWI on UA, WN, NK, or G4.

How will AA position its DCA hub following the COVID-19 pandemic?
 
AAtakeMeAway
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Fri Jul 03, 2020 5:12 pm

Doesn't the PHX over-staffing stem as far back as the dismantlement of the LUS LAS hub? It's my understanding that PM LUS PHX FA's did a lot of deadheading to CLT because there just wasn't the need out of PHX.
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Fri Jul 03, 2020 6:10 pm

https://www.forbes.com/sites/willhorton ... c11cd26373

"American is perceived as having given up on Los Angeles and dismantling its international hub there after deciding to end five routes. That includes all of its flights from Los Angeles to South America, and most of Asia.

But even with these reductions American will still be the largest international U.S. airline in Los Angeles for long-haul flights. And American is keeping more capacity than it’s cutting."

American will focus on its “strategic hubs,” Chief Revenue Officer Vasu Raja said. Los Angeles has only “domestic strength.”
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SESGDL
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Fri Jul 03, 2020 7:40 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/willhorton1/2020/07/03/despite-cuts-american-airlines-still-largest-in-los-angeles-for-international-long-haul-after-covid-19-response/#24c11cd26373

"American is perceived as having given up on Los Angeles and dismantling its international hub there after deciding to end five routes. That includes all of its flights from Los Angeles to South America, and most of Asia.

But even with these reductions American will still be the largest international U.S. airline in Los Angeles for long-haul flights. And American is keeping more capacity than it’s cutting."

American will focus on its “strategic hubs,” Chief Revenue Officer Vasu Raja said. Los Angeles has only “domestic strength.”


I can't imagine if DL were to cut all of its SEA-Asia service apart from ICN or HND or UA were to cut half of its TPAC service from SFO that people on here wouldn't be calling it a miserable failure. I fail to understand how the same isn't being said of AA's LAX "experiment." To suddenly end half of the service from a premier TPAC hub and international gateway is an abject failure. What's going on for AA at SEA is a sign of desperation, not some strategic power move. AA has failed at building its TPAC hub at LAX and now it must resort to using partners to cover its dwindling network to Asia. While COVID has accelerated this cut, LAX for AA was struggling long before the pandemic. And while AA is touting that it will still remain the largest international carrier at LAX, I'll believe it when I see CHC and AKL come back.

Jeremy
 
Detroit313
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Sat Jul 04, 2020 4:39 pm

So, Athens is safe from both ORD and PHL?
 
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American 767
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Sat Jul 04, 2020 5:13 pm

jplatts wrote:

AA also has a hub at DCA in addition to JFK, LGA, PHL, CLT, MIA, ORD, DFW, PHX, and LAX. AA will also likely keep nonstop service out of DCA to some non-AA hub destinations


BOS is one of them, for sure. DCA-BOS is even flown with mainline equipment mostly A319. Another one is STL, if not mainline at least Eagle. Not sure if they still do DCA-FLL, I know they have. Five years ago I flew DCA-FLL on an A319.
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Ishrion
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Sat Jul 04, 2020 5:16 pm

Detroit313 wrote:
So, Athens is safe from both ORD and PHL?


Yes, for now.
 
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mercure1
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Sat Jul 04, 2020 5:30 pm

I view AA cutting LAX longhauls not just as a sign its having difficulties in a very competitive yet huge local market, but also as glaring sign its Pacific underperformance continues.

Last year we saw AA drop ORD-Asia, now 3 of 4 Asian markets get dropped from LAX.

Assuming COVID recovery in 2021, AA in a best-case will have a significantly undersized presence in the region.

DFW-HND
DFW-HKG
DFW-ICN
DFW-NRT (will this return?)
DFW-PEK
DFW-PVG
LAX-HND
SEA-PVG

Ultimately quite minimal coverage across such a major global region and the DFW gateway focus hardly useful for large portions of U.S. travelling public.
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Varsity1
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Sat Jul 04, 2020 5:39 pm

AAtakeMeAway wrote:
Doesn't the PHX over-staffing stem as far back as the dismantlement of the LUS LAS hub? It's my understanding that PM LUS PHX FA's did a lot of deadheading to CLT because there just wasn't the need out of PHX.


YES!

PHX has long been overstaffed, even in the AW days.

The company has mentioned more than once the desire to right size the base, but always seems to defer.
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janders
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Sat Jul 04, 2020 6:06 pm

mercure1 wrote:
I view AA cutting LAX longhauls not just as a sign its having difficulties in a very competitive yet huge local market, but also as glaring sign its Pacific underperformance continues.

Last year we saw AA drop ORD-Asia, now 3 of 4 Asian markets get dropped from LAX.

Assuming COVID recovery in 2021, AA in a best-case will have a significantly undersized presence in the region.

DFW-HND
DFW-HKG
DFW-ICN
DFW-NRT (will this return?)
DFW-PEK
DFW-PVG
LAX-HND
SEA-PVG

Ultimately quite minimal coverage across such a major global region and the DFW gateway focus hardly useful for large portions of U.S. travelling public.



The global economy is increasingly focused on Asia, but AA instead heads the other way.

Its clear they have long struggled in the region. Probably would take much time and too much investment - something AA does not have now to ever make something worthwhile out of it.

Agreed AA will be inconsequential for much of the US with DFW being hardly the ideal gateway to access Asia from.

I do wonder that AA will do when it says it will “leverage partnerships as the foundation of future international growth”?
With BA we can see combining with into T5 as a step, but what about Asia? With mere couple flights to JAL Tokyo hub, not exactly "leverage" in my book.
"We make war that we may live in peace." -- Aristotle
 
chonetsao
Posts: 587
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Sat Jul 04, 2020 6:27 pm

janders wrote:
mercure1 wrote:
I view AA cutting LAX longhauls not just as a sign its having difficulties in a very competitive yet huge local market, but also as glaring sign its Pacific underperformance continues.

Last year we saw AA drop ORD-Asia, now 3 of 4 Asian markets get dropped from LAX.

Assuming COVID recovery in 2021, AA in a best-case will have a significantly undersized presence in the region.

DFW-HND
DFW-HKG
DFW-ICN
DFW-NRT (will this return?)
DFW-PEK
DFW-PVG
LAX-HND
SEA-PVG

Ultimately quite minimal coverage across such a major global region and the DFW gateway focus hardly useful for large portions of U.S. travelling public.



The global economy is increasingly focused on Asia, but AA instead heads the other way.

Its clear they have long struggled in the region. Probably would take much time and too much investment - something AA does not have now to ever make something worthwhile out of it.

Agreed AA will be inconsequential for much of the US with DFW being hardly the ideal gateway to access Asia from.

I do wonder that AA will do when it says it will “leverage partnerships as the foundation of future international growth”?
With BA we can see combining with into T5 as a step, but what about Asia? With mere couple flights to JAL Tokyo hub, not exactly "leverage" in my book.


No offense. But the global economy refocus have nothing to do with AA.

What happens RIGHT NOW is the labour intense industry move out from China and South Korea towards cheaper labour market like Vietnam, Indonesia and India. Just like 20-30 years ago the said industry move from Taiwan, Japan, Hong Kong and even Singapore to cheaper China and Thailand. Such process does not benefit US based carrier. In the end, US benefit from the cheaper products. Currently the marine traffic benefit from the large quantity of goods that airlines can not transport. Even as part of Asia is getting richer, local carrier is always the preferred carrier for the new rich touring around the America.

AA has a perfect JV partner JAL in the region. Tokyo is also a perfect getaway for US flights from Southeast Asia and North Asia. AA needs to build around Tokyo with JAL. Let DL and UA takes the risks of developing market. I'd say it is a smart move. Maybe it is a forced move. Yet, Tokyo is the best choice right now. With more slots become available in Haneda, the future prospect is much better day by day.
 
onwFan
Posts: 430
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Sat Jul 04, 2020 6:29 pm

janders wrote:
mercure1 wrote:
I view AA cutting LAX longhauls not just as a sign its having difficulties in a very competitive yet huge local market, but also as glaring sign its Pacific underperformance continues.

Last year we saw AA drop ORD-Asia, now 3 of 4 Asian markets get dropped from LAX.

Assuming COVID recovery in 2021, AA in a best-case will have a significantly undersized presence in the region.

DFW-HND
DFW-HKG
DFW-ICN
DFW-NRT (will this return?)
DFW-PEK
DFW-PVG
LAX-HND
SEA-PVG

Ultimately quite minimal coverage across such a major global region and the DFW gateway focus hardly useful for large portions of U.S. travelling public.



The global economy is increasingly focused on Asia, but AA instead heads the other way.

Its clear they have long struggled in the region. Probably would take much time and too much investment - something AA does not have now to ever make something worthwhile out of it.

Agreed AA will be inconsequential for much of the US with DFW being hardly the ideal gateway to access Asia from.

I do wonder that AA will do when it says it will “leverage partnerships as the foundation of future international growth”?
With BA we can see combining with into T5 as a step, but what about Asia? With mere couple flights to JAL Tokyo hub, not exactly "leverage" in my book.

A lot of route maps are going to be redrawn post-covid. As usual, AA has been the earliest to announce their route changes. We don’t even have an idea of how DL’s or UA’s TPAC network is going to look like. There is no point comparing AA’s future network with UA or DL’s current network.

As we have seen recently, Zone-1 China frequencies are now wide open for anyone to grab. This was not a situation that many foresaw. They can launch a route to Beijing and Shanghai when and if there is sufficient demand. It is just a matter of time that at least 1 or 2 HND frequencies become available from DL when they try to ask for a waiver or shift (I am very happy to be proved weong on this). Expect AA to make a play for at least some of that if there is a need to improve connectivity with JL, especially from SEA/PDX.
 
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LAXintl
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Sat Jul 04, 2020 8:18 pm

No doubt AA walking away from ever more from having a meaningful presence in Asia.

They seemingly don't have a choice with the inability to fund ongoing losses.

chonetsao wrote:
AA has a perfect JV partner JAL in the region. Tokyo is also a perfect getaway for US flights from Southeast Asia and North Asia. AA needs to build around Tokyo with JAL. Let DL and UA takes the risks of developing market. I'd say it is a smart move. Maybe it is a forced move. Yet, Tokyo is the best choice right now. With more slots become available in Haneda, the future prospect is much better day by day.


Tokyo and JAL hardly perfect due lack of frequency and small footprint across the region. Also split Tokyo ops further hurts connectivity.

Tokyo, unfortunately, can't do for AA what LHR and BA can with a dense and frequent European and beyond network. Tokyo is a good O&D market no doubt, but beyond JAL connectivity is far more limited than competing regional hubs or even what UA/ANA muster.

A partner in the region with decent frequency and footprint that could truly help AA is CX, but there is no chance of a JV at the moment.
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LAXintl
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Sat Jul 04, 2020 8:30 pm

janders wrote:
I do wonder that AA will do when it says it will “leverage partnerships as the foundation of future international growth”?
With BA we can see combining with into T5 as a step, but what about Asia? With mere couple flights to JAL Tokyo hub, not exactly "leverage" in my book.


Reminds me of AA cornerstone strategy that came part of the AMR bankruptcy which circled the wagons and focused on using partners also.

AA has 3 JBA's - AY/BA/IB across the Atlantic, JL partner for Asia, plus QF down under. Not exactly comprehensive global coverage and the QF one might not generate any business whatsoever until mid 2021 with Australia's border closure.
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Ishrion
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Sun Jul 05, 2020 5:32 am

SEA-LHR now loaded, set to begin from March 27, 2021.

- Depart SEA 6:40 PM arrive LHR 12:10 PM the next day.
- Depart LHR 1:50 PM arrive SEA 3:50 PM the same day.

The flight's timed in between British Airways' existing 2x daily flights.
 
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mercure1
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Mon Jul 06, 2020 10:21 pm

Cornerstone did not turn out too well and also did not make sense after US merger obviously.

Also not sure focusing on partners the best strategy either. Sure BA/IB gives it Europe coverage, by JL hardly answer for Asia. AA/JL is significantly smaller than UA/NH and carry far less beyond 6th freedom. QF ok to South Pacific, but who knows when that will be back in business. Also what about Latin America -- AA go alone??
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graham697
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Mon Jul 06, 2020 11:34 pm

American 767 wrote:
jplatts wrote:

AA also has a hub at DCA in addition to JFK, LGA, PHL, CLT, MIA, ORD, DFW, PHX, and LAX. AA will also likely keep nonstop service out of DCA to some non-AA hub destinations


BOS is one of them, for sure. DCA-BOS is even flown with mainline equipment mostly A319. Another one is STL, if not mainline at least Eagle. Not sure if they still do DCA-FLL, I know they have. Five years ago I flew DCA-FLL on an A319.


From what I've heard is that them being mum on DCA is a good thing and with the plan for flat to small growth in FAs, means that the pre-COVID 'hub operations' will slowly be brought back. Starting tomorrow you're seeing more destinations return in the schedule. I wonder how long the FAA will allow the slot waivers to continue.
 
onwFan
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Tue Jul 07, 2020 12:01 am

mercure1 wrote:
Cornerstone did not turn out too well and also did not make sense after US merger obviously.

Also not sure focusing on partners the best strategy either. Sure BA/IB gives it Europe coverage, by JL hardly answer for Asia. AA/JL is significantly smaller than UA/NH and carry far less beyond 6th freedom. QF ok to South Pacific, but who knows when that will be back in business. Also what about Latin America -- AA go alone??

NH serves two relevant destinations in Asia that JL doesn't - Rangon (RGN) and Phnom Penh (PNH), neither of them are exactly 'must be in' markets. Plus they (and several others) are served adequately on CX codeshares. China is not covered in either. AA's weakness is that they have never had any major presence in Asia, which UA and DL have achieved through mergers/acquisitions. And that will continue to haunt them for the foreseeable future - they need to rely entirely on partners.

QF - Not at all sure what you are suggesting.. they are the prize in Oz for their network and their FF base - there is no doubt they'll be back whenever there is any meaningful demand.

With AV already disappearing in Peru & LATAM in Argentina (with more probably to come?), UA's and DL's plans for Latin America will need to be completely re-written. It is clear that AA stands to benefit the most in Lain America when travel returns, since their strategy was largely non-reliant on partners, with the exception of Brazil (for which they already have GOL). They already serve many secondary destinations in Colombia & Ecuador on their own.
 
FSDan
Posts: 3268
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Tue Jul 07, 2020 12:48 am

onwFan wrote:
With AV already disappearing in Peru & LATAM in Argentina (with more probably to come?), UA's and DL's plans for Latin America will need to be completely re-written. It is clear that AA stands to benefit the most in Lain America when travel returns, since their strategy was largely non-reliant on partners, with the exception of Brazil (for which they already have GOL). They already serve many secondary destinations in Colombia & Ecuador on their own.


"Completely rewritten" seems a bit dramatic... UA's still got IAH, CM at PTY, and probably some reorganized version of AV at SAL/BOG. LA Argentina was arguably the least important unit of LA to DL as they still codeshare with AR, so until that codeshare goes away or LA Peru/Chile/Brazil go away, I don't think DL's plans will change significantly.

AA will surely maintain their strong presence via MIA and DFW, but we shouldn't sweep under the rug their recent trend (including pre-COVID) of serving fewer and fewer secondary South America destinations (with Colombia and GEO being the exception to that trend). COR was dropped. VVI was dropped. LPB was dropped. CNF was dropped. ASU, CWB, POA, VCP, REC, and SSA were all dropped as well over the last several years. COVID hastened the demise of BSB and might threaten MVD (although I hope AA keeps it). I'm certainly not about to predict AA's failure in Latin America (I don't see that happening) and I was never one of the crazies claiming that DL+LA were suddenly going to dominate AA and take over MIA, but I also don't see AA ruling Latin America with ease again anytime soon, even with COVID hurting AV and LA.
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