Moderators: jsumali2, richierich, ua900, PanAm_DC10, hOMSaR

 
tphuang
Posts: 5199
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: AA releases June Load Factor, announces New Cuts

Mon Jul 06, 2020 6:27 pm

FSDan wrote:
LAXdude1023 wrote:
AA cut a LOT of DFW-Latin America.


In my opinion, the cuts to recently added less-than-daily markets like DFW-SAP/TGU/UIO/GYE aren't at all surprising. For whatever reason (probably the size of local immigrant communities?), Houston seems to do a lot better with these markets.


It also seems to me that MIA is better suited to handle those markets. It's hard to split that traffic between 2 hubs.
 
FSDan
Posts: 3318
Joined: Mon Jan 03, 2011 5:27 pm

Re: American adds more Asia to SEA, and other long-haul changes

Mon Jul 06, 2020 6:31 pm

OneAA wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
Key takeaways here are less int'l from LAX, and decreasing long-thin routes

Should be interesting to watch, especially SEA-PVG

CLT down to 3 int'l routes it looks like

http://news.aa.com/news/news-details/20 ... fault.aspx


Wow. CLT hardly has any long haul flights left. Other than PHX, CLT has the least amount of daily long hauls....even less than LAX with the recent cuts.


To be honest, if CLT manages to hold onto the 6 daily transatlantic flights (all on 772s, no less) that are still scheduled for next summer as of now, it'll be doing really well for itself. CLT is a vastly oversized hub when compared to its local market.
This is my signature until I think of a better one.
 
kavok
Posts: 831
Joined: Wed May 11, 2016 10:12 pm

Re: AA releases June Load Factor, announces New Cuts

Mon Jul 06, 2020 6:56 pm

FSDan wrote:
LAXdude1023 wrote:
AA cut a LOT of DFW-Latin America.


In my opinion, the cuts to recently added less-than-daily markets like DFW-SAP/TGU/UIO/GYE aren't at all surprising. For whatever reason (probably the size of local immigrant communities?), Houston seems to do a lot better with these markets.


In addition to strong local O/D and being the only hub in United’s network that works well for Latin America, IAH benefits from being a United hub (as opposed to DFW being a hub for AA). The reason that is significant is Texas is better suited geographically to connect West Coast pax onward to Latin America, just as MIA is best suited geographically to connect East Coast pax to Latin America. Given that United is the strongest legacy airline in the West, and American the weakest, it would only make sense that a United hub in Texas would do better than an American hub in connecting west coast pax to Latin America. Hence the success of IAH.
 
SESGDL
Posts: 2899
Joined: Sat Jan 13, 2001 6:25 am

Re: AA releases June Load Factor, announces New Cuts

Mon Jul 06, 2020 7:15 pm

kavok wrote:
FSDan wrote:
LAXdude1023 wrote:
AA cut a LOT of DFW-Latin America.


In my opinion, the cuts to recently added less-than-daily markets like DFW-SAP/TGU/UIO/GYE aren't at all surprising. For whatever reason (probably the size of local immigrant communities?), Houston seems to do a lot better with these markets.


In addition to strong local O/D and being the only hub in United’s network that works well for Latin America, IAH benefits from being a United hub (as opposed to DFW being a hub for AA). The reason that is significant is Texas is better suited geographically to connect West Coast pax onward to Latin America, just as MIA is best suited geographically to connect East Coast pax to Latin America. Given that United is the strongest legacy airline in the West, and American the weakest, it would only make sense that a United hub in Texas would do better than an American hub in connecting west coast pax to Latin America. Hence the success of IAH.


This simply isn't true. For connection flows, there are few examples where IAH functions as a better connecting hub than DFW. The reason IAH is a better hub to Latin America and has more service is a simple function of IAH being a much larger international O&D market. This is the same reason that IAH has more international service to all regions of the world than DFW. IAH is an economic powerhouse internationally whereas DFW is a larger domestic market. But it has nothing to do with UA being stronger in the West than AA and IAH somehow being a better hub to the West to connect through to Latin America; DFW has FAR more service to the West Coast than IAH, yet IAH is able to make many Latin American markets work that DFW can't, in spite of being the much smaller hub. IAH is just a dramatically larger international market.

Jeremy
 
LAXdude1023
Posts: 6170
Joined: Thu Sep 07, 2006 3:16 pm

Re: AA releases June Load Factor, announces New Cuts

Mon Jul 06, 2020 8:45 pm

FSDan wrote:
LAXdude1023 wrote:
AA cut a LOT of DFW-Latin America.


In my opinion, the cuts to recently added less-than-daily markets like DFW-SAP/TGU/UIO/GYE aren't at all surprising. For whatever reason (probably the size of local immigrant communities?), Houston seems to do a lot better with these markets.


Its not just DFW. DL backed out of TGU and MGA permanently.

There are two reasons. If you compare DFW (or ATL) to IAH several things leap out in regards to Latin American traffic.

1) DFW and ATL have far superior connectivity, but dont come close to IAH on O&D. The one area DFW does get close is the secondary Mexican market (CUU, MLM, SLP, etc.), but other than that they arent on the same level.

2) These markets are in part driven by demographics. Most people dont realize that Greater Houston has roughly the same size Central American population as Miami/Fort Lauderdale. Both are only behind LA, DC, and NYC nationwide. Houston also has the fastest growing Honduran and Salvadoran populations in the US. That makes for a lot of O&D. I know SAP, TGU, and SAL have their own separate check in at IAH.
FOR THE LOVE OF GOD BRING BACK THE PAYWALL!!!!
 
onwFan
Posts: 436
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2016 4:02 am

Re: AA releases June Load Factor, announces New Cuts

Mon Jul 06, 2020 9:25 pm

LAXdude1023 wrote:
FSDan wrote:
LAXdude1023 wrote:
AA cut a LOT of DFW-Latin America.


In my opinion, the cuts to recently added less-than-daily markets like DFW-SAP/TGU/UIO/GYE aren't at all surprising. For whatever reason (probably the size of local immigrant communities?), Houston seems to do a lot better with these markets.


Its not just DFW. DL backed out of TGU and MGA permanently.


What do you mean ‘backed out of TGU and MGA permanently’? They fly to both destinations from MIA, that too 2x daily in peak season...
 
LAXdude1023
Posts: 6170
Joined: Thu Sep 07, 2006 3:16 pm

Re: AA releases June Load Factor, announces New Cuts

Mon Jul 06, 2020 9:31 pm

onwFan wrote:
LAXdude1023 wrote:
FSDan wrote:

In my opinion, the cuts to recently added less-than-daily markets like DFW-SAP/TGU/UIO/GYE aren't at all surprising. For whatever reason (probably the size of local immigrant communities?), Houston seems to do a lot better with these markets.


Its not just DFW. DL backed out of TGU and MGA permanently.


What do you mean ‘backed out of TGU and MGA permanently’? They fly to both destinations from MIA, that too 2x daily in peak season...


DL never flew from to MGA and TGU permanently.
FOR THE LOVE OF GOD BRING BACK THE PAYWALL!!!!
 
onwFan
Posts: 436
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2016 4:02 am

Re: AA releases June Load Factor, announces New Cuts

Mon Jul 06, 2020 9:35 pm

LAXdude1023 wrote:
onwFan wrote:
LAXdude1023 wrote:

Its not just DFW. DL backed out of TGU and MGA permanently.


What do you mean ‘backed out of TGU and MGA permanently’? They fly to both destinations from MIA, that too 2x daily in peak season...


DL never flew from to MGA and TGU permanently.

Sorry. Since you were comparing DFW and IAH and responding to AA dropping DFW-MGA/TGU, I read it as AA dropping them permanently. So never mind!
 
Aliqiout
Posts: 377
Joined: Wed Oct 05, 2016 6:10 pm

Re: American adds more Asia to SEA, and other long-haul changes

Mon Jul 06, 2020 9:54 pm

Lots of people throwing around the word "legacy" when they really mean "big 3". There are four "legacy" airlines left, AA,DL,UA and AS.
 
User avatar
OzarkD9S
Posts: 5678
Joined: Tue Oct 23, 2001 2:31 am

Re: American adds more Asia to SEA, and other long-haul changes

Mon Jul 06, 2020 10:02 pm

Aliqiout wrote:

Lots of people throwing around the word "legacy" when they really mean "big 3". There are four "legacy" airlines left, AA,DL,UA and AS.


Define "legacy" then. Pre-deregulation? Count in HA and WN.
"True, I talk of dreams,
Which are the children of an idle brain." -Mercutio
 
User avatar
mercure1
Posts: 4790
Joined: Sun Jul 13, 2008 5:13 am

Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Mon Jul 06, 2020 10:21 pm

Cornerstone did not turn out too well and also did not make sense after US merger obviously.

Also not sure focusing on partners the best strategy either. Sure BA/IB gives it Europe coverage, by JL hardly answer for Asia. AA/JL is significantly smaller than UA/NH and carry far less beyond 6th freedom. QF ok to South Pacific, but who knows when that will be back in business. Also what about Latin America -- AA go alone??
mercure f-wtcc
 
FSDan
Posts: 3318
Joined: Mon Jan 03, 2011 5:27 pm

Re: AA releases June Load Factor, announces New Cuts

Mon Jul 06, 2020 10:30 pm

LAXdude1023 wrote:
FSDan wrote:
LAXdude1023 wrote:
AA cut a LOT of DFW-Latin America.


In my opinion, the cuts to recently added less-than-daily markets like DFW-SAP/TGU/UIO/GYE aren't at all surprising. For whatever reason (probably the size of local immigrant communities?), Houston seems to do a lot better with these markets.


Its not just DFW. DL backed out of TGU and MGA permanently.


MGA maybe, but TGU is still for sale on DL's website. Unless it was a very recent announcement that I missed, DL seems to do OK with ATL-Honduras service (probably a lot of connections from the NYC area, D.C., Chicago, etc.).

I appreciate the context regarding the size of Houston's Central American diaspora, though. That's what I suspected.
This is my signature until I think of a better one.
 
LAXdude1023
Posts: 6170
Joined: Thu Sep 07, 2006 3:16 pm

Re: AA releases June Load Factor, announces New Cuts

Mon Jul 06, 2020 10:33 pm

onwFan wrote:
LAXdude1023 wrote:
onwFan wrote:

What do you mean ‘backed out of TGU and MGA permanently’? They fly to both destinations from MIA, that too 2x daily in peak season...


DL never flew from to MGA and TGU permanently.

Sorry. Since you were comparing DFW and IAH and responding to AA dropping DFW-MGA/TGU, I read it as AA dropping them permanently. So never mind!


MIA is the end all be all be all of Latin America hubs. That’s what puts DFW in a tough bind when traffic to that region drops. Flights to/from DFW to Latin America depend on connections except for Mexico and El Salvador which can fill planes off O&D. MIA on the other hand doesn’t need help.

IAH is kind of a mix between DFW and MIA.
Last edited by LAXdude1023 on Mon Jul 06, 2020 10:38 pm, edited 1 time in total.
FOR THE LOVE OF GOD BRING BACK THE PAYWALL!!!!
 
LAXdude1023
Posts: 6170
Joined: Thu Sep 07, 2006 3:16 pm

Re: AA releases June Load Factor, announces New Cuts

Mon Jul 06, 2020 10:38 pm

FSDan wrote:
LAXdude1023 wrote:
FSDan wrote:

In my opinion, the cuts to recently added less-than-daily markets like DFW-SAP/TGU/UIO/GYE aren't at all surprising. For whatever reason (probably the size of local immigrant communities?), Houston seems to do a lot better with these markets.


Its not just DFW. DL backed out of TGU and MGA permanently.


MGA maybe, but TGU is still for sale on DL's website. Unless it was a very recent announcement that I missed, DL seems to do OK with ATL-Honduras service (probably a lot of connections from the NYC area, D.C., Chicago, etc.).

I appreciate the context regarding the size of Houston's Central American diaspora, though. That's what I suspected.


You’re right, the TGU cut is temporary. The MGA one is permanent though.
FOR THE LOVE OF GOD BRING BACK THE PAYWALL!!!!
 
brilondon
Posts: 3154
Joined: Sun Aug 21, 2005 6:56 am

Re: American adds more Asia to SEA, and other long-haul changes

Mon Jul 06, 2020 10:53 pm

AA747123 wrote:
Some airlines and analysts are saying traffic will not rebound to 2019 levels till 2025. Until a vaccine is widely available I would agree with that. I think the growth at SEA is exciting, but summer 2021 is a bit optimistic.

I quite agree. 2019 traffic levels may not be reached for at least 5 years. I don't see how people are going to travel on fewer flights thre same way they did last summer. There are still countries not able to deal with.
Rush forever Closer To My Heart
 
TonyClifton
Posts: 220
Joined: Thu May 14, 2020 3:19 pm

Re: American adds more Asia to SEA, and other long-haul changes

Mon Jul 06, 2020 11:13 pm

OzarkD9S wrote:
Aliqiout wrote:

Lots of people throwing around the word "legacy" when they really mean "big 3". There are four "legacy" airlines left, AA,DL,UA and AS.


Define "legacy" then. Pre-deregulation? Count in HA and WN.

Hawaiian yes, Southwest no. The general definition of legacy is interstate routes prior to deregulation. Southwest started flying outside of Texas after deregulation. They’re the poster child for deregulation success.
 
graham697
Posts: 396
Joined: Fri Dec 12, 2003 11:59 am

Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Mon Jul 06, 2020 11:34 pm

American 767 wrote:
jplatts wrote:

AA also has a hub at DCA in addition to JFK, LGA, PHL, CLT, MIA, ORD, DFW, PHX, and LAX. AA will also likely keep nonstop service out of DCA to some non-AA hub destinations


BOS is one of them, for sure. DCA-BOS is even flown with mainline equipment mostly A319. Another one is STL, if not mainline at least Eagle. Not sure if they still do DCA-FLL, I know they have. Five years ago I flew DCA-FLL on an A319.


From what I've heard is that them being mum on DCA is a good thing and with the plan for flat to small growth in FAs, means that the pre-COVID 'hub operations' will slowly be brought back. Starting tomorrow you're seeing more destinations return in the schedule. I wonder how long the FAA will allow the slot waivers to continue.
 
GSP psgr
Posts: 714
Joined: Thu Mar 30, 2000 7:09 am

Re: American adds more Asia to SEA, and other long-haul changes

Mon Jul 06, 2020 11:35 pm

Am I the only one who thinks a YYZ-SEA on AA could happen? AS has always seemed leery of wading into Eastern Canada, while meanwhile AA already has a station at YYZ to handle the flight; also since it's an international flight don't AA and AS have more leeway to coordinate?
 
User avatar
BA744PHX
Posts: 354
Joined: Mon Sep 24, 2007 3:42 am

Re: American adds more Asia to SEA, and other long-haul changes

Mon Jul 06, 2020 11:37 pm

GSP psgr wrote:
Am I the only one who thinks a YYZ-SEA on AA could happen? AS has always seemed leery of wading into Eastern Canada, while meanwhile AA already has a station at YYZ to handle the flight; also since it's an international flight don't AA and AS have more leeway to coordinate?


You are the only one, AA doesn't even fly LAX/PHX-YYZ
 
Ishrion
Posts: 2832
Joined: Mon Feb 04, 2019 6:17 am

Re: American adds more Asia to SEA, and other long-haul changes

Mon Jul 06, 2020 11:38 pm

GSP psgr wrote:
Am I the only one who thinks a YYZ-SEA on AA could happen? AS has always seemed leery of wading into Eastern Canada, while meanwhile AA already has a station at YYZ to handle the flight; also since it's an international flight don't AA and AS have more leeway to coordinate?


LAX-SEA-YYZ to make up for AA discontinuing LAX-YYZ two years ago?
 
onwFan
Posts: 436
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2016 4:02 am

Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Tue Jul 07, 2020 12:01 am

mercure1 wrote:
Cornerstone did not turn out too well and also did not make sense after US merger obviously.

Also not sure focusing on partners the best strategy either. Sure BA/IB gives it Europe coverage, by JL hardly answer for Asia. AA/JL is significantly smaller than UA/NH and carry far less beyond 6th freedom. QF ok to South Pacific, but who knows when that will be back in business. Also what about Latin America -- AA go alone??

NH serves two relevant destinations in Asia that JL doesn't - Rangon (RGN) and Phnom Penh (PNH), neither of them are exactly 'must be in' markets. Plus they (and several others) are served adequately on CX codeshares. China is not covered in either. AA's weakness is that they have never had any major presence in Asia, which UA and DL have achieved through mergers/acquisitions. And that will continue to haunt them for the foreseeable future - they need to rely entirely on partners.

QF - Not at all sure what you are suggesting.. they are the prize in Oz for their network and their FF base - there is no doubt they'll be back whenever there is any meaningful demand.

With AV already disappearing in Peru & LATAM in Argentina (with more probably to come?), UA's and DL's plans for Latin America will need to be completely re-written. It is clear that AA stands to benefit the most in Lain America when travel returns, since their strategy was largely non-reliant on partners, with the exception of Brazil (for which they already have GOL). They already serve many secondary destinations in Colombia & Ecuador on their own.
 
GSP psgr
Posts: 714
Joined: Thu Mar 30, 2000 7:09 am

Re: American adds more Asia to SEA, and other long-haul changes

Tue Jul 07, 2020 12:06 am

BA744PHX wrote:
GSP psgr wrote:
Am I the only one who thinks a YYZ-SEA on AA could happen? AS has always seemed leery of wading into Eastern Canada, while meanwhile AA already has a station at YYZ to handle the flight; also since it's an international flight don't AA and AS have more leeway to coordinate?


You are the only one, AA doesn't even fly LAX/PHX-YYZ


I got the impression that YYZ-LAX rode on some large corporate entertainment contract that they lost; as for PHX-YYZ, it skews heavily towards Canada POS and it's hard for AA to compete with Rouge and WestJet on the route. SEA-YYZ is probably a far more even traffic split than PHX with better yields and less capacity to fight from AC and WS.
 
USAirALB
Posts: 2301
Joined: Tue Sep 11, 2007 4:46 am

Re: American adds more Asia to SEA, and other long-haul changes

Tue Jul 07, 2020 12:48 am

GSP psgr wrote:
BA744PHX wrote:
GSP psgr wrote:
Am I the only one who thinks a YYZ-SEA on AA could happen? AS has always seemed leery of wading into Eastern Canada, while meanwhile AA already has a station at YYZ to handle the flight; also since it's an international flight don't AA and AS have more leeway to coordinate?


You are the only one, AA doesn't even fly LAX/PHX-YYZ


I got the impression that YYZ-LAX rode on some large corporate entertainment contract that they lost; as for PHX-YYZ, it skews heavily towards Canada POS and it's hard for AA to compete with Rouge and WestJet on the route. SEA-YYZ is probably a far more even traffic split than PHX with better yields and less capacity to fight from AC and WS.

IIRC, I think the flight was also originally tied to QF leaving the YYZ market. QF used to do YYZ-HNL-SYD with a 763 and almost immediately after QF leaving YYZ, AA began LAX-YYZ with flights that were directly timed to QF connections at LAX. It initially began as a daily 738, at one point IIRC it went up to 2x daily 738. By the time it was discontinued it was a daily 319.

Years and years ago, AS attempted LAX-YYZ as well with a MD80.
RJ85, F70, E135, E140, E145, E70, E75, E90, CR2, CR7, CR9, 717, 732, 733, 734, 735, 73G, 738, 739, 744ER, 752, 753, 762, 772, 77E, 77W, 789, 319, 320, 321, 332, 333, 343, 359, 388
 
FSDan
Posts: 3318
Joined: Mon Jan 03, 2011 5:27 pm

Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Tue Jul 07, 2020 12:48 am

onwFan wrote:
With AV already disappearing in Peru & LATAM in Argentina (with more probably to come?), UA's and DL's plans for Latin America will need to be completely re-written. It is clear that AA stands to benefit the most in Lain America when travel returns, since their strategy was largely non-reliant on partners, with the exception of Brazil (for which they already have GOL). They already serve many secondary destinations in Colombia & Ecuador on their own.


"Completely rewritten" seems a bit dramatic... UA's still got IAH, CM at PTY, and probably some reorganized version of AV at SAL/BOG. LA Argentina was arguably the least important unit of LA to DL as they still codeshare with AR, so until that codeshare goes away or LA Peru/Chile/Brazil go away, I don't think DL's plans will change significantly.

AA will surely maintain their strong presence via MIA and DFW, but we shouldn't sweep under the rug their recent trend (including pre-COVID) of serving fewer and fewer secondary South America destinations (with Colombia and GEO being the exception to that trend). COR was dropped. VVI was dropped. LPB was dropped. CNF was dropped. ASU, CWB, POA, VCP, REC, and SSA were all dropped as well over the last several years. COVID hastened the demise of BSB and might threaten MVD (although I hope AA keeps it). I'm certainly not about to predict AA's failure in Latin America (I don't see that happening) and I was never one of the crazies claiming that DL+LA were suddenly going to dominate AA and take over MIA, but I also don't see AA ruling Latin America with ease again anytime soon, even with COVID hurting AV and LA.
This is my signature until I think of a better one.
 
onwFan
Posts: 436
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2016 4:02 am

Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Tue Jul 07, 2020 1:03 am

FSDan wrote:
onwFan wrote:
With AV already disappearing in Peru & LATAM in Argentina (with more probably to come?), UA's and DL's plans for Latin America will need to be completely re-written. It is clear that AA stands to benefit the most in Lain America when travel returns, since their strategy was largely non-reliant on partners, with the exception of Brazil (for which they already have GOL). They already serve many secondary destinations in Colombia & Ecuador on their own.


"Completely rewritten" seems a bit dramatic... UA's still got IAH, CM at PTY, and probably some reorganized version of AV at SAL/BOG. LA Argentina was arguably the least important unit of LA to DL as they still codeshare with AR, so until that codeshare goes away or LA Peru/Chile/Brazil go away, I don't think DL's plans will change significantly.

AA will surely maintain their strong presence via MIA and DFW, but we shouldn't sweep under the rug their recent trend (including pre-COVID) of serving fewer and fewer secondary South America destinations (with Colombia and GEO being the exception to that trend). COR was dropped. VVI was dropped. LPB was dropped. CNF was dropped. ASU, CWB, POA, VCP, REC, and SSA were all dropped as well over the last several years. COVID hastened the demise of BSB and might threaten MVD (although I hope AA keeps it). I'm certainly not about to predict AA's failure in Latin America (I don't see that happening) and I was never one of the crazies claiming that DL+LA were suddenly going to dominate AA and take over MIA, but I also don't see AA ruling Latin America with ease again anytime soon, even with COVID hurting AV and LA.


Sure enough. But to be fair, AA’s unwinding of Brazil was also attributed to two other things: (a) Downturn in Brazil’s economy and demand at that time; (b) entry of JJ’s network into the oneworld fold, which changed the dynamics altogether. Plus they were hoping to get the JV with LA/JJ approved. I don’t expect to see any network expansion in the near future either, but you never know what opportunities might open up at MIA a few years ahead.

That being said, I expect LA’s network in MIA post covid to be limited to GRU, LIM and SCL. AA/G3 will be better equipped now to handle MIA-Secondary brazil routes going forward, having significant feed at bothe ends; and GOL having a relatively larger network at secondary destinations.
 
dcajet
Posts: 4683
Joined: Sun Aug 01, 2004 9:31 am

Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Tue Jul 07, 2020 1:26 am

onwFan wrote:

With AV already disappearing in Peru & LATAM in Argentina (with more probably to come?), UA's and DL's plans for Latin America will need to be completely re-written.


LATAM is only retreating from domestic flying in Argentina; all services to GRU, LIM & SCL from EZE, AEP, COR, ROS, MDZ, SLA & TUC are not affected by the demise of 4M. Those are of higher importance to Delta. LATAM Argentina's domestic ops were probably of the least importance to Delta. They already codeshare with AR, which has a more robust network than LATAM ever had in the country.
Keep calm and wash your hands.
 
onwFan
Posts: 436
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2016 4:02 am

Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Tue Jul 07, 2020 1:37 am

dcajet wrote:
onwFan wrote:

With AV already disappearing in Peru & LATAM in Argentina (with more probably to come?), UA's and DL's plans for Latin America will need to be completely re-written.


LATAM is only retreating from domestic flying in Argentina; all services to GRU, LIM & SCL from EZE, AEP, COR, ROS, MDZ, SLA & TUC are not affected by the demise of 4M. Those are of higher importance to Delta. LATAM Argentina's domestic ops were probably of the least importance to Delta. They already codeshare with AR, which has a more robust network than LATAM ever had in the country.

Sure, enough. But there is every reason to suspect an MU/CZ story recurring with LA/AR.
 
dcajet
Posts: 4683
Joined: Sun Aug 01, 2004 9:31 am

Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Tue Jul 07, 2020 2:11 am

onwFan wrote:
dcajet wrote:
onwFan wrote:

With AV already disappearing in Peru & LATAM in Argentina (with more probably to come?), UA's and DL's plans for Latin America will need to be completely re-written.


LATAM is only retreating from domestic flying in Argentina; all services to GRU, LIM & SCL from EZE, AEP, COR, ROS, MDZ, SLA & TUC are not affected by the demise of 4M. Those are of higher importance to Delta. LATAM Argentina's domestic ops were probably of the least importance to Delta. They already codeshare with AR, which has a more robust network than LATAM ever had in the country.

Sure, enough. But there is every reason to suspect an MU/CZ story recurring with LA/AR.


That would be ironic given that AR was partly owned and managed by AA in the late 90s...
Keep calm and wash your hands.
 
YYZORD
Posts: 495
Joined: Thu Jan 31, 2019 5:26 pm

Re: American adds more Asia to SEA, and other long-haul changes

Tue Jul 07, 2020 3:21 am

USAirALB wrote:
GSP psgr wrote:
BA744PHX wrote:

You are the only one, AA doesn't even fly LAX/PHX-YYZ


I got the impression that YYZ-LAX rode on some large corporate entertainment contract that they lost; as for PHX-YYZ, it skews heavily towards Canada POS and it's hard for AA to compete with Rouge and WestJet on the route. SEA-YYZ is probably a far more even traffic split than PHX with better yields and less capacity to fight from AC and WS.

IIRC, I think the flight was also originally tied to QF leaving the YYZ market. QF used to do YYZ-HNL-SYD with a 763 and almost immediately after QF leaving YYZ, AA began LAX-YYZ with flights that were directly timed to QF connections at LAX. It initially began as a daily 738, at one point IIRC it went up to 2x daily 738. By the time it was discontinued it was a daily 319.

Years and years ago, AS attempted LAX-YYZ as well with a MD80.


I think DL would much rather add SEA-YYZ due to their JV with WS, can utilize connections to Europe with WS, AF, and KL.
 
wedgetail737
Posts: 5249
Joined: Mon Aug 04, 2003 8:44 am

Re: American adds more Asia to SEA, and other long-haul changes

Tue Jul 07, 2020 3:38 am

YYZORD wrote:
USAirALB wrote:
GSP psgr wrote:

I got the impression that YYZ-LAX rode on some large corporate entertainment contract that they lost; as for PHX-YYZ, it skews heavily towards Canada POS and it's hard for AA to compete with Rouge and WestJet on the route. SEA-YYZ is probably a far more even traffic split than PHX with better yields and less capacity to fight from AC and WS.

IIRC, I think the flight was also originally tied to QF leaving the YYZ market. QF used to do YYZ-HNL-SYD with a 763 and almost immediately after QF leaving YYZ, AA began LAX-YYZ with flights that were directly timed to QF connections at LAX. It initially began as a daily 738, at one point IIRC it went up to 2x daily 738. By the time it was discontinued it was a daily 319.

Years and years ago, AS attempted LAX-YYZ as well with a MD80.


I think DL would much rather add SEA-YYZ due to their JV with WS, can utilize connections to Europe with WS, AF, and KL.


DL doesn't need WS for European destinations. SEA already has AF to CDG, DL uses their own metal on the SEA-AMS route (more so during the summer season).

I think it was the 1980's where TG flew the SEA-YYZ route.
 
Ishrion
Posts: 2832
Joined: Mon Feb 04, 2019 6:17 am

Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Tue Jul 07, 2020 3:48 am

Not sure if this was already noted, but it looks like AA will not operate ORD-ATH this year.

The latest press release doesn’t mention it, so I’m assuming it’s a new change.

The route was set to resume on August 5, but it’ll now resume on May 6, 2021.
 
UpNAWAy
Posts: 681
Joined: Thu Aug 11, 2016 12:42 pm

Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Tue Jul 07, 2020 3:52 am

If AA drops a hub it will be ORD it doesn't make much money in great times and looses its shirt in the bad times.
 
YYZORD
Posts: 495
Joined: Thu Jan 31, 2019 5:26 pm

Re: American adds more Asia to SEA, and other long-haul changes

Tue Jul 07, 2020 4:10 am

wedgetail737 wrote:
YYZORD wrote:
USAirALB wrote:
IIRC, I think the flight was also originally tied to QF leaving the YYZ market. QF used to do YYZ-HNL-SYD with a 763 and almost immediately after QF leaving YYZ, AA began LAX-YYZ with flights that were directly timed to QF connections at LAX. It initially began as a daily 738, at one point IIRC it went up to 2x daily 738. By the time it was discontinued it was a daily 319.

Years and years ago, AS attempted LAX-YYZ as well with a MD80.


I think DL would much rather add SEA-YYZ due to their JV with WS, can utilize connections to Europe with WS, AF, and KL.


DL doesn't need WS for European destinations. SEA already has AF to CDG, DL uses their own metal on the SEA-AMS route (more so during the summer season).

I think it was the 1980's where TG flew the SEA-YYZ route.


I know they don't need WS for European destinations but the whole JV with WS makes DL more viable for a SEA-YYZ compared to AA/AS
 
Ishrion
Posts: 2832
Joined: Mon Feb 04, 2019 6:17 am

Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Tue Jul 07, 2020 5:27 am

ORD-ATH confirmed dropped for the remainder of 2020. My friend's booking was rerouted. Doubt he'll even get to go to Athens this year.

Additionally, AA has opened bookings for up to June 3, 2021, which marks the beginning of the peak summer season.

- PHL-KEF on the A321neo is now bookable.
- The 2x daily DFW-CDG/MAD likely won't be happening in the summer 2021 season, logically.
- MIA-EZE is a new 787-8 route operating 1x daily from March 27, 2021. Starting the same day, MIA-EZE will operate 13x weekly overall, with 6x weekly 772s complementing the daily 788.
 
chonetsao
Posts: 646
Joined: Sun Nov 06, 2005 3:55 pm

Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Tue Jul 07, 2020 9:51 am

UpNAWAy wrote:
If AA drops a hub it will be ORD it doesn't make much money in great times and looses its shirt in the bad times.


Right size ORD, YES. Drop the hub? I am not so sure.
 
User avatar
OzarkD9S
Posts: 5678
Joined: Tue Oct 23, 2001 2:31 am

Re: American adds more Asia to SEA, and other long-haul changes

Tue Jul 07, 2020 10:57 am

TonyClifton wrote:

Hawaiian yes, Southwest no. The general definition of legacy is interstate routes prior to deregulation. Southwest started flying outside of Texas after deregulation. They’re the poster child for deregulation success.


Then HA no as well, using your criteria. HA was strictly intrastate, though not classified as such.
"True, I talk of dreams,
Which are the children of an idle brain." -Mercutio
 
Cointrin330
Posts: 1993
Joined: Sat Jul 16, 2016 12:23 pm

Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Tue Jul 07, 2020 12:02 pm

UpNAWAy wrote:
If AA drops a hub it will be ORD it doesn't make much money in great times and looses its shirt in the bad times.


I don't think AA will drop ORD as a hub. Right size it, maybe, which they've done already many times since the 2000s, but they have a significant amount of market share and corporate traffic there and they're not going to walk away from that. If a hub is to be dropped, it would be PHX or LAX. LAX is really an O&D station anyway, and they've already chopped the long haul network considerably, clearly showing it wasn't profitable even before COVID19. They can just keep what they have, downsize a bit more, or flow more to AS to compensate and still call it a focus city, which is what it is.
 
Cointrin330
Posts: 1993
Joined: Sat Jul 16, 2016 12:23 pm

Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Tue Jul 07, 2020 12:10 pm

chonetsao wrote:
UpNAWAy wrote:
If AA drops a hub it will be ORD it doesn't make much money in great times and looses its shirt in the bad times.


Right size ORD, YES. Drop the hub? I am not so sure.


Agreed. Clearly, ORD isn't a focus for AA for long haul, notably post-COVID19, but as a domestic trunk hub, it still has a relevant role to play and can't be subbed out with more capacity thrown at DFW. Without ORD, AA would have no mid-continent hub (DFW is too far south for the midwest markets and feed). AA will retain ORD, but it will just continue to exist as a domestic focused operation, with LHR year round and if and when the industry recovers, a slight bounce for TATL seasonals, selectively though. I do not see East Europe ever being launched or anything else that can be easily served from PHL except for a small # of big markets.
 
User avatar
jfklganyc
Posts: 5954
Joined: Mon Jan 05, 2004 2:31 pm

Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Tue Jul 07, 2020 12:16 pm

Cointrin330 wrote:
chonetsao wrote:
UpNAWAy wrote:
If AA drops a hub it will be ORD it doesn't make much money in great times and looses its shirt in the bad times.


Right size ORD, YES. Drop the hub? I am not so sure.


Agreed. Clearly, ORD isn't a focus for AA for long haul, notably post-COVID19, but as a domestic trunk hub, it still has a relevant role to play and can't be subbed out with more capacity thrown at DFW. Without ORD, AA would have no mid-continent hub (DFW is too far south for the midwest markets and feed). AA will retain ORD, but it will just continue to exist as a domestic focused operation, with LHR year round and if and when the industry recovers, a slight bounce for TATL seasonals, selectively though. I do not see East Europe ever being launched or anything else that can be easily served from PHL except for a small # of big markets.


There’s no way American would drop ORD.

Northern, mid continent connecting hub in the most important city in that region

They will drop JFK LAX and PHX first.
 
Cointrin330
Posts: 1993
Joined: Sat Jul 16, 2016 12:23 pm

Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Tue Jul 07, 2020 1:07 pm

jfklganyc wrote:
Cointrin330 wrote:
chonetsao wrote:

Right size ORD, YES. Drop the hub? I am not so sure.


Agreed. Clearly, ORD isn't a focus for AA for long haul, notably post-COVID19, but as a domestic trunk hub, it still has a relevant role to play and can't be subbed out with more capacity thrown at DFW. Without ORD, AA would have no mid-continent hub (DFW is too far south for the midwest markets and feed). AA will retain ORD, but it will just continue to exist as a domestic focused operation, with LHR year round and if and when the industry recovers, a slight bounce for TATL seasonals, selectively though. I do not see East Europe ever being launched or anything else that can be easily served from PHL except for a small # of big markets.


There’s no way American would drop ORD.

Northern, mid continent connecting hub in the most important city in that region

They will drop JFK LAX and PHX first.


Agreed. JFK really isn't a hub and has not been for a while. It's sort of a focus operation and it will likely live on in a 45-80 range of daily departures if and when traffic levels pick up again. The BA/AA co-location and the fact that AS is part of oneworld can result in some additions to places like SEA, SAN, and maybe PDX on AA from JFK again, but that's about it. The TATL portfolio will likely remain but the majority of what AA serves out of JFK is focused on O&D. PHX is squeezed margin wise due to WN and there is not enough corporate traffic at PHX to ensure its viability. LAX will become like JFK, a focus operation, which it always really has been, geared to O&D.
 
Ishrion
Posts: 2832
Joined: Mon Feb 04, 2019 6:17 am

Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Tue Jul 07, 2020 1:09 pm

Ishrion wrote:
ORD-ATH confirmed dropped for the remainder of 2020. My friend's booking was rerouted. Doubt he'll even get to go to Athens this year.

Additionally, AA has opened bookings for up to June 3, 2021, which marks the beginning of the peak summer season.

- PHL-KEF on the A321neo is now bookable.
- The 2x daily DFW-CDG/MAD likely won't be happening in the summer 2021 season, logically.
- MIA-EZE is a new 787-8 route operating 1x daily from March 27, 2021. Starting the same day, MIA-EZE will operate 13x weekly overall, with 6x weekly 772s complementing the daily 788.


And regarding PHL-KEF, the premium seats up front are being sold as Premium Economy instead of Business Class since they're simply recliners.
 
jplatts
Posts: 3612
Joined: Sat Mar 18, 2017 6:42 pm

Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Tue Jul 07, 2020 1:48 pm

Cointrin330 wrote:
Agreed. JFK really isn't a hub and has not been for a while. It's sort of a focus operation and it will likely live on in a 45-80 range of daily departures if and when traffic levels pick up again. The BA/AA co-location and the fact that AS is part of oneworld can result in some additions to places like SEA, SAN, and maybe PDX on AA from JFK again, but that's about it. The TATL portfolio will likely remain but the majority of what AA serves out of JFK is focused on O&D. PHX is squeezed margin wise due to WN and there is not enough corporate traffic at PHX to ensure its viability. LAX will become like JFK, a focus operation, which it always really has been, geared to O&D.


In addition to the AS-BA codeshare, AS also already codeshares with other TATL carriers serving JFK such as LY, AY, and FI. AS can also enter into codeshare agreements with IB, QR, AT, and RJ with IB, QR, AT, and RJ all being TATL airlines that are in the oneworld alliance.
 
onwFan
Posts: 436
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2016 4:02 am

Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Tue Jul 07, 2020 3:30 pm

UpNAWAy wrote:
If AA drops a hub it will be ORD it doesn't make much money in great times and looses its shirt in the bad times.

Makes no sense. As others have pointed out, AA has plenty of other hubs that are redundant in its network if anything needs to be chopped.

Recent news points to large cuts coming at PHX and LAX, which is logical, especially in light of the AS partnership. Expect AA to focus on the East Coast and Midwest and leave the West Coast to AS - COVID will make AA and AS rely on each other even more than they thought they would need to, which is probably a reason why AS is fast-tracking its oneworld entry. Neither AA nor AS have a balanced network to be relevant for everyone, but together they can.
 
jplatts
Posts: 3612
Joined: Sat Mar 18, 2017 6:42 pm

Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Tue Jul 07, 2020 4:15 pm

onwFan wrote:
UpNAWAy wrote:
If AA drops a hub it will be ORD it doesn't make much money in great times and looses its shirt in the bad times.

Makes no sense. As others have pointed out, AA has plenty of other hubs that are redundant in its network if anything needs to be chopped.

Recent news points to large cuts coming at PHX and LAX, which is logical, especially in light of the AS partnership. Expect AA to focus on the East Coast and Midwest and leave the West Coast to AS - COVID will make AA and AS rely on each other even more than they thought they would need to, which is probably a reason why AS is fast-tracking its oneworld entry. Neither AA nor AS have a balanced network to be relevant for everyone, but together they can.


AA still has nonstop service out of LAX on at least a seasonal basis to some U.S. destinations not currently served by AS such as ASE, CLT, EGE, XNA, BDL, JAC, and SDF.

While I agree that AA making some cuts at LAX is a possibility, there is still a market for AA nonstop service out of LAX to some non-AA hub destinations not served by AS such as XNA, BDL, and SDF. AA also does not currently face any nonstop competition on its LAX-CLT/BDL/SDF nonstop routes.
 
onwFan
Posts: 436
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2016 4:02 am

Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Tue Jul 07, 2020 4:32 pm

jplatts wrote:
onwFan wrote:
UpNAWAy wrote:
If AA drops a hub it will be ORD it doesn't make much money in great times and looses its shirt in the bad times.

Makes no sense. As others have pointed out, AA has plenty of other hubs that are redundant in its network if anything needs to be chopped.

Recent news points to large cuts coming at PHX and LAX, which is logical, especially in light of the AS partnership. Expect AA to focus on the East Coast and Midwest and leave the West Coast to AS - COVID will make AA and AS rely on each other even more than they thought they would need to, which is probably a reason why AS is fast-tracking its oneworld entry. Neither AA nor AS have a balanced network to be relevant for everyone, but together they can.


AA still has nonstop service out of LAX on at least a seasonal basis to some U.S. destinations not currently served by AS such as ASE, CLT, EGE, XNA, BDL, JAC, and SDF.

While I agree that AA making some cuts at LAX is a possibility, there is still a market for AA nonstop service out of LAX to some non-AA hub destinations not served by AS such as XNA, BDL, and SDF. AA also does not currently face any nonstop competition on its LAX-CLT/BDL/SDF nonstop routes.

Yes, LAX is definitely an exception and will certainly still remain as the oneworld gateway to the South Pacific. I expect AA and AS LAX networks to become even less overlapping going forward (they are, already except mainly for transcontinental). AS will most probably keep/add many of the intra-West Coast from LAX, where it is more established; and AA more eastwards. Between them at T4/5/6, they will still be able to keep the advantage of having the broadest network from LAX, unless AA retrenches severely. But AA will need a better strategy than before with regards to balancing its LAX and PHX operations, as AS already covers most of the O/D from the West coast. We will certainly get a glimpse of that in the next few weeks...
 
tphuang
Posts: 5199
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Tue Jul 07, 2020 4:40 pm

At this point, I think AS and AA can all fit in T4 + T5. I'm sure they want most of T4 to 6, but they really don't need it. AA will probably be at most 150 flights in the near to medium term and AS will be around 70 to 90.
 
FSDan
Posts: 3318
Joined: Mon Jan 03, 2011 5:27 pm

Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Tue Jul 07, 2020 4:43 pm

Cointrin330 wrote:
PHX is squeezed margin wise due to WN and there is not enough corporate traffic at PHX to ensure its viability.


Haven't we seen hub margin estimates showing PHX as not too different from ORD, MIA, etc.? Somewhere near 10%? Also, while there may not be as much corporate traffic as other top-15 metro areas, that's not to say that what's there isn't worthwhile. There are quite a few major corporations with HQs or major operations in the Phoenix area (Avnet, Freeport-McMoRan, NortonLifeLock, Honeywell, Intel, ON Semiconductor, State Farm, etc.), and it's growing in the tech sector especially. Of the leisure traffic, a chunk of that is high end tourism to all the luxury resorts and spas in the area. I doubt AA wants to hand all that to WN on a silver platter.

An additional thing going for PHX is its inverse peak season. When AA severely cuts back ORD in the winter, they can reallocate some of that spare capacity to PHX rather than just parking a bunch of aircraft for a few months.

Maybe AA will decide they can lop off a bank or two from PHX without cutting into their local traffic too much, but I sincerely hope they'll keep it around as more than a focus city. Does anyone know what sort of lease arrangement they have in Terminal 4?
This is my signature until I think of a better one.
 
FSDan
Posts: 3318
Joined: Mon Jan 03, 2011 5:27 pm

Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Tue Jul 07, 2020 4:54 pm

tphuang wrote:
At this point, I think AS and AA can all fit in T4 + T5. I'm sure they want most of T4 to 6, but they really don't need it. AA will probably be at most 150 flights in the near to medium term and AS will be around 70 to 90.


The hangup with consolidating to just T4 + T5 is that AS still seems to do really well on all their Mexican resort destination flights, and they need the 6 FIS gates at the end of T6 to handle all the afternoon arrivals. I think T5 has fewer FIS gates (and I believe that FIS was decommissioned a few years ago, although I'm not sure whether it was permanent or whether it could be easily reactivated), and T4 just has 2 FIS gates right now, which AA will presumably continue to use for LHR, HND, etc.

If AA still plans to continue on with the T4-T5 redevelopment in the medium term, they could potentially use this as an opportunity to shift more flights to T5 while minimizing the impact of closing down gates in T4 for the reconstruction. But, on the other hand, if they plan to remain smaller at LAX for the long term, maybe spending billions on T4-T5 redevelopment doesn't make much sense anymore...
This is my signature until I think of a better one.
 
onwFan
Posts: 436
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2016 4:02 am

Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Tue Jul 07, 2020 4:58 pm

tphuang wrote:
At this point, I think AS and AA can all fit in T4 + T5. I'm sure they want most of T4 to 6, but they really don't need it. AA will probably be at most 150 flights in the near to medium term and AS will be around 70 to 90.

AA's operations at LAX were already extremely gate-constrained, leading to heavy delays on almost ever singe flight. Plus, there was literally no room for even people to walk, unless you want to walk through them. If they plan to move over the operations from the 9 American Eagle satellite gates, they will definitely need both T4 and T5. Plus, T5 will be a buffer for their operations if they go ahead with the T4 modernization project. They might not need those TBIT gates. I also see AS capitalizing on some of the availability in T5/T6. In any case, with MSC opening up and the smaller carriers moving over, there will be space at T5. I don't see DL wanting to come back to T5 (or anywhere on the South side) for split operations. Nor do I see UA expanding, nor WN. So who exactly is going to want T5 in the near future?
 
tphuang
Posts: 5199
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Tue Jul 07, 2020 5:09 pm

onwFan wrote:
tphuang wrote:
At this point, I think AS and AA can all fit in T4 + T5. I'm sure they want most of T4 to 6, but they really don't need it. AA will probably be at most 150 flights in the near to medium term and AS will be around 70 to 90.

AA's operations at LAX were already extremely gate-constrained, leading to heavy delays on almost ever singe flight. Plus, there was literally no room for even people to walk, unless you want to walk through them. If they plan to move over the operations from the 9 American Eagle satellite gates, they will definitely need both T4 and T5. Plus, T5 will be a buffer for their operations if they go ahead with the T4 modernization project. They might not need those TBIT gates. I also see AS capitalizing on some of the availability in T5/T6. In any case, with MSC opening up and the smaller carriers moving over, there will be space at T5. I don't see DL wanting to come back to T5 (or anywhere on the South side) for split operations. Nor do I see UA expanding, nor WN. So who exactly is going to want T5 in the near future?


There won't be any expanding. Again, largest cuts in mainline FAs are at PHX, LAX and MIA. Of those 3, LAX was the smallest hub pre-COVID, so the shrink in terms of percentage is probably the largest. At the same time, I see a lot of those Eagle flights going away if AS ends up carrying that load. So, it f you have a large reduction in mainline and regional, you will have a large reduction over all.

AS at best scenario will recover to pre-COVID size sometimes next year in number of flights but in shorter stage length. There is a pretty good chance AS will close its LAX A320 base. So I anticipate we will see a lot more regional and less mainline from AS out of LAX.

Is AA really in a position to make continued investment in T4+5? I don't see it. It's priority coming out of this is basically DFW + CLT.

Popular Searches On Airliners.net

Top Photos of Last:   24 Hours  •  48 Hours  •  7 Days  •  30 Days  •  180 Days  •  365 Days  •  All Time

Military Aircraft Every type from fighters to helicopters from air forces around the globe

Classic Airliners Props and jets from the good old days

Flight Decks Views from inside the cockpit

Aircraft Cabins Passenger cabin shots showing seat arrangements as well as cargo aircraft interior

Cargo Aircraft Pictures of great freighter aircraft

Government Aircraft Aircraft flying government officials

Helicopters Our large helicopter section. Both military and civil versions

Blimps / Airships Everything from the Goodyear blimp to the Zeppelin

Night Photos Beautiful shots taken while the sun is below the horizon

Accidents Accident, incident and crash related photos

Air to Air Photos taken by airborne photographers of airborne aircraft

Special Paint Schemes Aircraft painted in beautiful and original liveries

Airport Overviews Airport overviews from the air or ground

Tails and Winglets Tail and Winglet closeups with beautiful airline logos