tphuang wrote:onwFan wrote:tphuang wrote:At this point, I think AS and AA can all fit in T4 + T5. I'm sure they want most of T4 to 6, but they really don't need it. AA will probably be at most 150 flights in the near to medium term and AS will be around 70 to 90.
AA's operations at LAX were already extremely gate-constrained, leading to heavy delays on almost ever singe flight. Plus, there was literally no room for even people to walk, unless you want to walk through them. If they plan to move over the operations from the 9 American Eagle satellite gates, they will definitely need both T4 and T5. Plus, T5 will be a buffer for their operations if they go ahead with the T4 modernization project. They might not need those TBIT gates. I also see AS capitalizing on some of the availability in T5/T6. In any case, with MSC opening up and the smaller carriers moving over, there will be space at T5. I don't see DL wanting to come back to T5 (or anywhere on the South side) for split operations. Nor do I see UA expanding, nor WN. So who exactly is going to want T5 in the near future?
There won't be any expanding. Again, largest cuts in mainline FAs are at PHX, LAX and MIA. Of those 3, LAX was the smallest hub pre-COVID, so the shrink in terms of percentage is probably the largest. At the same time, I see a lot of those Eagle flights going away if AS ends up carrying that load. So, it f you have a large reduction in mainline and regional, you will have a large reduction over all.
AS at best scenario will recover to pre-COVID size sometimes next year in number of flights but in shorter stage length. There is a pretty good chance AS will close its LAX A320 base. So I anticipate we will see a lot more regional and less mainline from AS out of LAX.
Is AA really in a position to make continued investment in T4+5? I don't see it. It's priority coming out of this is basically DFW + CLT.
Time will tell. But T4+T5 for AA & AS combined sounds hardly sufficient, with little to no flexibility to grow anytime ever in the future.