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Philly65
Posts: 94
Joined: Wed Jul 11, 2007 2:15 pm

Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Thu Jul 16, 2020 5:27 pm

sagechan wrote:
Philly65 wrote:
USAirALB wrote:
In light of today's announcement regarding JFK-ATH/TLV, and this past weekend's OAG update showing a number of short-haul runs ex PHL were suspended outright (or reduced) and transferred to CLT, I am starting to question AA's role at PHL going forward. I don't think it would be de-hubbed, but it just seems interesting.

On a different note, I fail to see how the AS partnership helps AA in LAX. AA serves more destinations ex LAX than AS does, and the only "unique" AS routes ex LAX that AA does not fly are BOI/BWI/DAL/PAE/RSW/FLL*/GDL/ZIH/LIB/LTO/ZLO/MZT/EWR*/GEG. Sure that is a decent number, but it isn't anything truly unique, except for maybe the Mexican resort network.

*Routes AA used to fly nonstop ex LAX


American hired a planner with UAL experience and knows the value of NYC. I would be surprised if this agreement is approved without massive divestitures from both AA and B6. Then your comment re PHL some 90 miles to the southwest, which may get the interest of Southwest. We'll see but giving this 40-60 chance of approval. It is not critical for AA IMO.


It's a codeshare not any kind of integration. It will go through easily with no divestures but may have limits on ability to codeshare on certain competitive routes and/or guarantees to not drop certain routes for a period of time

Time will tell but almost certain this "interline" arrangement will be challenged. And just wait for AA labor unions to have their say.
 
Ishrion
Posts: 2836
Joined: Mon Feb 04, 2019 6:17 am

Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Thu Jul 16, 2020 8:53 pm

Speculation time - post-COVID AA is “certain” to add new service to Africa, India, South America, and Europe which will be facilitated by this JetBlue partnership. Assuming it gets approved, what routes could we see post-COVID?

- More competition with Delta on top of the new JFK-ATH/TLV? JFK-BOM/BUD/LIS?
- JFK-PRG/DBV/ZAG?
- Going head-on with LATAM? JFK-GYE/LIM?
- Expanded service into BLR from JFK? Would this need a corporate contract, or could it be sustained by pure demand?
- Entry into more African destinations? JNB/CPT?
- BOS expansion? Take over RAM’s BOS-CMN that’s rumored to be cut?
- First BOS to India route? (What’s the demand on this?)
- Compete with LATAM’s BOS-GRU? Gain connections on both end with JetBlue and GOL?
- Complement Qatar’s DOH service out of BOS or JFK?

Just a bunch of wishful thinking at this point. Though, with the addition of routes like SEA-BLR/PVG, JFK-ATH/TLV (despite COVID), AA’s future of “resetting” its long-haul network will likely come with many surprises.
 
Philly65
Posts: 94
Joined: Wed Jul 11, 2007 2:15 pm

Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Thu Jul 16, 2020 11:03 pm

Ishrion wrote:
Speculation time - post-COVID AA is “certain” to add new service to Africa, India, South America, and Europe which will be facilitated by this JetBlue partnership. Assuming it gets approved, what routes could we see post-COVID?

- More competition with Delta on top of the new JFK-ATH/TLV? JFK-BOM/BUD/LIS?
- JFK-PRG/DBV/ZAG?
- Going head-on with LATAM? JFK-GYE/LIM?
- Expanded service into BLR from JFK? Would this need a corporate contract, or could it be sustained by pure demand?
- Entry into more African destinations? JNB/CPT?
- BOS expansion? Take over RAM’s BOS-CMN that’s rumored to be cut?
- First BOS to India route? (What’s the demand on this?)
- Compete with LATAM’s BOS-GRU? Gain connections on both end with JetBlue and GOL?
- Complement Qatar’s DOH service out of BOS or JFK?

Just a bunch of wishful thinking at this point. Though, with the addition of routes like SEA-BLR/PVG, JFK-ATH/TLV (despite COVID), AA’s future of “resetting” its long-haul network will likely come with many surprises.


That is exactly the point. If the above were to take place it is creating a virtual merger using JFK as the base for a Trans-Atlantic hub. That scenario would not be an interline agreement. AA is using B6 to backfill AA metal that would transfer passengers at PHL or other AA hubs. Then you have the whole FLL & MIA issue.
 
PHLspecial
Posts: 652
Joined: Sun Aug 12, 2018 4:11 pm

Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Thu Jul 16, 2020 11:42 pm

Ishrion wrote:
Speculation time - post-COVID AA is “certain” to add new service to Africa, India, South America, and Europe which will be facilitated by this JetBlue partnership. Assuming it gets approved, what routes could we see post-COVID?

- More competition with Delta on top of the new JFK-ATH/TLV? JFK-BOM/BUD/LIS?
- JFK-PRG/DBV/ZAG?
- Going head-on with LATAM? JFK-GYE/LIM?
- Expanded service into BLR from JFK? Would this need a corporate contract, or could it be sustained by pure demand?
- Entry into more African destinations? JNB/CPT?
- BOS expansion? Take over RAM’s BOS-CMN that’s rumored to be cut?
- First BOS to India route? (What’s the demand on this?)
- Compete with LATAM’s BOS-GRU? Gain connections on both end with JetBlue and GOL?
- Complement Qatar’s DOH service out of BOS or JFK?

Just a bunch of wishful thinking at this point. Though, with the addition of routes like SEA-BLR/PVG, JFK-ATH/TLV (despite COVID), AA’s future of “resetting” its long-haul network will likely come with many surprises.

So JFK will have all the first tier markets while PHL will have the smaller markets? PHL I don't think is losing hub status but will continue to be experimental hub for AA.
 
Ishrion
Posts: 2836
Joined: Mon Feb 04, 2019 6:17 am

Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Fri Jul 17, 2020 1:54 am

PHLspecial wrote:
Ishrion wrote:
Speculation time - post-COVID AA is “certain” to add new service to Africa, India, South America, and Europe which will be facilitated by this JetBlue partnership. Assuming it gets approved, what routes could we see post-COVID?

- More competition with Delta on top of the new JFK-ATH/TLV? JFK-BOM/BUD/LIS?
- JFK-PRG/DBV/ZAG?
- Going head-on with LATAM? JFK-GYE/LIM?
- Expanded service into BLR from JFK? Would this need a corporate contract, or could it be sustained by pure demand?
- Entry into more African destinations? JNB/CPT?
- BOS expansion? Take over RAM’s BOS-CMN that’s rumored to be cut?
- First BOS to India route? (What’s the demand on this?)
- Compete with LATAM’s BOS-GRU? Gain connections on both end with JetBlue and GOL?
- Complement Qatar’s DOH service out of BOS or JFK?

Just a bunch of wishful thinking at this point. Though, with the addition of routes like SEA-BLR/PVG, JFK-ATH/TLV (despite COVID), AA’s future of “resetting” its long-haul network will likely come with many surprises.

So JFK will have all the first tier markets while PHL will have the smaller markets? PHL I don't think is losing hub status but will continue to be experimental hub for AA.


I mean, JFK is more business-oriented compared to PHL. AA's recent expansions out of PHL targeted more leisure and secondary destinations like DBV/PRG/BUD/TXL.

Of course, JFK could see more secondary markets... are we counting ATH as one?

AA specifically said this JFK expansion will complement PHL's network, so I don't think they would transfer PHL-ATH to JFK or any other surviving routes?
 
rjbesikof
Posts: 74
Joined: Wed Jan 22, 2020 4:21 am

Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Fri Jul 17, 2020 2:19 am

Ishrion wrote:
Speculation time - post-COVID AA is “certain” to add new service to Africa, India, South America, and Europe which will be facilitated by this JetBlue partnership. Assuming it gets approved, what routes could we see post-COVID?

- More competition with Delta on top of the new JFK-ATH/TLV? JFK-BOM/BUD/LIS?
- JFK-PRG/DBV/ZAG?
- Going head-on with LATAM? JFK-GYE/LIM?
- Expanded service into BLR from JFK? Would this need a corporate contract, or could it be sustained by pure demand?
- Entry into more African destinations? JNB/CPT?
- BOS expansion? Take over RAM’s BOS-CMN that’s rumored to be cut?
- First BOS to India route? (What’s the demand on this?)
- Compete with LATAM’s BOS-GRU? Gain connections on both end with JetBlue and GOL?
- Complement Qatar’s DOH service out of BOS or JFK?

Just a bunch of wishful thinking at this point. Though, with the addition of routes like SEA-BLR/PVG, JFK-ATH/TLV (despite COVID), AA’s future of “resetting” its long-haul network will likely come with many surprises.


Could we see added Tokyo as a result of this new partnership?
 
airplanedaj
Posts: 205
Joined: Wed Aug 14, 2013 1:05 am

Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Fri Jul 17, 2020 2:33 am

Could we see added Tokyo as a result of this new partnership?[/quote]

Probably not, since they would need a HND slot (they could go NRT but I think theyve more or less consolidated into HND) and JAL already serves the route multiple times daily (JV I think). Maybe, but doubtful.
 
RainerBoeing777
Posts: 508
Joined: Wed Jun 21, 2017 3:43 pm

Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Fri Jul 17, 2020 2:39 am

Ishrion wrote:
Speculation time - post-COVID AA is “certain” to add new service to Africa, India, South America, and Europe which will be facilitated by this JetBlue partnership. Assuming it gets approved, what routes could we see post-COVID?

- More competition with Delta on top of the new JFK-ATH/TLV? JFK-BOM/BUD/LIS?
- JFK-PRG/DBV/ZAG?
- Going head-on with LATAM? JFK-GYE/LIM?
- Expanded service into BLR from JFK? Would this need a corporate contract, or could it be sustained by pure demand?
- Entry into more African destinations? JNB/CPT?
- BOS expansion? Take over RAM’s BOS-CMN that’s rumored to be cut?
- First BOS to India route? (What’s the demand on this?)
- Compete with LATAM’s BOS-GRU? Gain connections on both end with JetBlue and GOL?
- Complement Qatar’s DOH service out of BOS or JFK?

Just a bunch of wishful thinking at this point. Though, with the addition of routes like SEA-BLR/PVG, JFK-ATH/TLV (despite COVID), AA’s future of “resetting” its long-haul network will likely come with many surprises.

I can see SEA-DOH in the future and SEA-NRT may return again
CX - JL - LH - KE - KL - SQ - QR - QF - TG
 
Detroit313
Posts: 544
Joined: Thu Dec 14, 2017 2:56 pm

Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Fri Jul 17, 2020 3:31 am

AA now totally dominates Athens with 3 non-stop flights from 3 different American cities! Amazing!

ORD - ATH
PHL - ATH
JFK - ATH

The only airline to serve Athens outside of the New York area and the only airline to have flights from more than 1 US city.
 
Brickell305
Posts: 1020
Joined: Sat Jun 24, 2017 2:07 pm

Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Fri Jul 17, 2020 11:07 am

airplanedaj wrote:
Could we see added Tokyo as a result of this new partnership?


Probably not, since they would need a HND slot (they could go NRT but I think theyve more or less consolidated into HND) and JAL already serves the route multiple times daily (JV I think). Maybe, but doubtful.[/quote]
I don’t think TYO is coming but AA still flies to NRT from both DFW and LAX.
 
P1aneMad
Posts: 463
Joined: Thu Jan 26, 2017 2:05 pm

Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Fri Jul 17, 2020 11:25 am

With Jet Blue's feed they can try a lot of places in Europe from BOS too.
 
Ishrion
Posts: 2836
Joined: Mon Feb 04, 2019 6:17 am

Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Fri Jul 17, 2020 6:59 pm

Brickell305 wrote:
airplanedaj wrote:
rjbesikof wrote:

Could we see added Tokyo as a result of this new partnership?


Probably not, since they would need a HND slot (they could go NRT but I think theyve more or less consolidated into HND) and JAL already serves the route multiple times daily (JV I think). Maybe, but doubtful.

I don’t think TYO is coming but AA still flies to NRT from both DFW and LAX.


AA only does NRT from DFW now. The daily LAX-NRT was shifted to HND so it's 2x LAX-HND.
 
MAH4546
Posts: 26220
Joined: Wed Jan 24, 2001 1:44 pm

Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Fri Jul 17, 2020 7:05 pm

P1aneMad wrote:
With Jet Blue's feed they can try a lot of places in Europe from BOS too.


They won’t. PHL and JFK have it covered.
a.
 
airzona11
Posts: 1752
Joined: Wed Dec 17, 2014 5:44 am

Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Fri Jul 17, 2020 7:46 pm

Jo8338 wrote:
Vctony wrote:
RemoFlyer wrote:
Twitter update from JonNYC (assuming its meant to be public)

PHX, LAX expected to lose 800+ flight attendants, MIA maybe more than that. These are the "significant reduction" bases outlined in the info distributed yesterday
- 30% smaller management saves $500 million dollars
-money lost per day is reduced to $35 million now


To me that screams that PHX will be hit with the buzzsaw.

We have an idea as to where some of the LAX cuts are coming from (the reduced international flying).

PHX cuts will be severe (each flight requires fewer FAs so to cut that many FAs means a larger cut of flying).

WN is currently the largest carrier at PHX in terms of passengers and it doesn't appear that this stat is likely to change.



PHX will likely see a lot of mainline going down to 76 seat regional.


But PHX has great metrics as a connecting hub. 76 seat regionals don't work in that model. Once AZ (TX and FL) have the cases and hysteria come down (that will happen), those are the growth markets in the country. A321s and 738s rule are the backbone of the PHX flying. AA has retrenched in their mega DFW Hub, while I am not saying PHX holds as is today, relative to other stations, I am not sure buzzsaw and shift to CRJs is what is in store.
 
kavok
Posts: 832
Joined: Wed May 11, 2016 10:12 pm

Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Fri Jul 17, 2020 8:06 pm

MAH4546 wrote:
P1aneMad wrote:
With Jet Blue's feed they can try a lot of places in Europe from BOS too.


They won’t. PHL and JFK have it covered.


I find this to be the biggest question. Where is the bulk of AAs TATL flights going to be located?

Obviously the top tier of European destinations (LHR, MAD, etc.) can be flown from multiple AA hubs. But it’s unlikely that secondary Eastern Europe can be supported by much more than one flight.

So if in 2023 I am flying AA from say a BUD or WAW (assuming those routes are flown), where do I clear customs? PHL? JFK?... BOS? If you are flying UA from there, you know it will be EWR. If it’s DL, you know it will be JFK. What about AA?
 
MAH4546
Posts: 26220
Joined: Wed Jan 24, 2001 1:44 pm

Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Fri Jul 17, 2020 9:08 pm

kavok wrote:
MAH4546 wrote:
P1aneMad wrote:
With Jet Blue's feed they can try a lot of places in Europe from BOS too.


They won’t. PHL and JFK have it covered.


I find this to be the biggest question. Where is the bulk of AAs TATL flights going to be located?

Obviously the top tier of European destinations (LHR, MAD, etc.) can be flown from multiple AA hubs. But it’s unlikely that secondary Eastern Europe can be supported by much more than one flight.

So if in 2023 I am flying AA from say a BUD or WAW (assuming those routes are flown), where do I clear customs? PHL? JFK?... BOS? If you are flying UA from there, you know it will be EWR. If it’s DL, you know it will be JFK. What about AA?


That's not a question at all. The answer is Philadelphia.
a.
 
FSDan
Posts: 3319
Joined: Mon Jan 03, 2011 5:27 pm

Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Fri Jul 17, 2020 9:11 pm

kavok wrote:
MAH4546 wrote:
P1aneMad wrote:
With Jet Blue's feed they can try a lot of places in Europe from BOS too.


They won’t. PHL and JFK have it covered.


I find this to be the biggest question. Where is the bulk of AAs TATL flights going to be located?

Obviously the top tier of European destinations (LHR, MAD, etc.) can be flown from multiple AA hubs. But it’s unlikely that secondary Eastern Europe can be supported by much more than one flight.

So if in 2023 I am flying AA from say a BUD or WAW (assuming those routes are flown), where do I clear customs? PHL? JFK?... BOS? If you are flying UA from there, you know it will be EWR. If it’s DL, you know it will be JFK. What about AA?


PHL. AA network planning has made it pretty clear that NY international flying needs to be supported by O&D (and ATH and TLV certainly seem to fit that description). PHL has lower costs and way more feed, and will continue to be the better gateway for secondary or leisure oriented transatlantic flights. I don't see AA starting additional transatlantic flights out of BOS beyond LHR.

AA ultimately has little incentive to drive their connecting traffic to B6. They'd rather make the money themselves on profitable domestic flights connecting into the PHL hub. With JFK, their feeder network was likely not profitable, while the long haul flights were reportedly doing well last year. For AA to keep those long haul flights profitable in the long run while ditching an unprofitable feeder operation, it helps to be able to supplement the hefty O&D traffic with some additional connecting passengers from B6. But B6 gets 100% of the revenue from the domestic leg in that scenario (unless AA is selling B6 operated flights above cost, which makes them a less competitive option).
This is my signature until I think of a better one.
 
kavok
Posts: 832
Joined: Wed May 11, 2016 10:12 pm

Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Sat Jul 18, 2020 12:03 am

FSDan wrote:
kavok wrote:
MAH4546 wrote:

They won’t. PHL and JFK have it covered.


I find this to be the biggest question. Where is the bulk of AAs TATL flights going to be located?

Obviously the top tier of European destinations (LHR, MAD, etc.) can be flown from multiple AA hubs. But it’s unlikely that secondary Eastern Europe can be supported by much more than one flight.

So if in 2023 I am flying AA from say a BUD or WAW (assuming those routes are flown), where do I clear customs? PHL? JFK?... BOS? If you are flying UA from there, you know it will be EWR. If it’s DL, you know it will be JFK. What about AA?


PHL. AA network planning has made it pretty clear that NY international flying needs to be supported by O&D (and ATH and TLV certainly seem to fit that description). PHL has lower costs and way more feed, and will continue to be the better gateway for secondary or leisure oriented transatlantic flights. I don't see AA starting additional transatlantic flights out of BOS beyond LHR.

AA ultimately has little incentive to drive their connecting traffic to B6. They'd rather make the money themselves on profitable domestic flights connecting into the PHL hub. With JFK, their feeder network was likely not profitable, while the long haul flights were reportedly doing well last year. For AA to keep those long haul flights profitable in the long run while ditching an unprofitable feeder operation, it helps to be able to supplement the hefty O&D traffic with some additional connecting passengers from B6. But B6 gets 100% of the revenue from the domestic leg in that scenario (unless AA is selling B6 operated flights above cost, which makes them a less competitive option).


I appreciate the information and responses. I have to then follow with another question of whether AA is taking up a different strategy on TATL vs TPAC. Arguably building up SEA as a TPAC hub is relying mostly on a partner feed, as AA only serves SEA from 7 of its hubs. But SEA obviously has the best geography for TPAC. Conversely on the TATL side, AA is using PHL over BOS/JFK for the reasons you mentioned. BOS/JFK both have better geography than PHL and now have partner feed too, but PHL is a Fortress hub.

So long story short, are the AA TATL and TPAC strategies inconsistent?
 
aaflyer777
Posts: 283
Joined: Wed Feb 05, 2014 6:37 pm

Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Sat Jul 18, 2020 1:19 am

The only other TATL route I see AA potentially resuming out of BOS is CDG. Huge market and with B6 feed they shouldn't have any problems filing a 787 in the summer months.
 
FSDan
Posts: 3319
Joined: Mon Jan 03, 2011 5:27 pm

Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Sat Jul 18, 2020 7:13 pm

kavok wrote:
FSDan wrote:
kavok wrote:

I find this to be the biggest question. Where is the bulk of AAs TATL flights going to be located?

Obviously the top tier of European destinations (LHR, MAD, etc.) can be flown from multiple AA hubs. But it’s unlikely that secondary Eastern Europe can be supported by much more than one flight.

So if in 2023 I am flying AA from say a BUD or WAW (assuming those routes are flown), where do I clear customs? PHL? JFK?... BOS? If you are flying UA from there, you know it will be EWR. If it’s DL, you know it will be JFK. What about AA?


PHL. AA network planning has made it pretty clear that NY international flying needs to be supported by O&D (and ATH and TLV certainly seem to fit that description). PHL has lower costs and way more feed, and will continue to be the better gateway for secondary or leisure oriented transatlantic flights. I don't see AA starting additional transatlantic flights out of BOS beyond LHR.

AA ultimately has little incentive to drive their connecting traffic to B6. They'd rather make the money themselves on profitable domestic flights connecting into the PHL hub. With JFK, their feeder network was likely not profitable, while the long haul flights were reportedly doing well last year. For AA to keep those long haul flights profitable in the long run while ditching an unprofitable feeder operation, it helps to be able to supplement the hefty O&D traffic with some additional connecting passengers from B6. But B6 gets 100% of the revenue from the domestic leg in that scenario (unless AA is selling B6 operated flights above cost, which makes them a less competitive option).


I appreciate the information and responses. I have to then follow with another question of whether AA is taking up a different strategy on TATL vs TPAC. Arguably building up SEA as a TPAC hub is relying mostly on a partner feed, as AA only serves SEA from 7 of its hubs. But SEA obviously has the best geography for TPAC. Conversely on the TATL side, AA is using PHL over BOS/JFK for the reasons you mentioned. BOS/JFK both have better geography than PHL and now have partner feed too, but PHL is a Fortress hub.

So long story short, are the AA TATL and TPAC strategies inconsistent?


First of all, I see no reason an airline needs to have "consistent" strategies to different regions of the globe that have different geographical factors, different partner situations, different economic factors, different historical strengths, etc.

The AA SEA strategy is a bit piecemeal so far (calling it a "TPAC hub" is a bit generous at this point IMHO). SEA-BLR was the first route announced, and SEA was chosen as the U.S. gateway for that flight largely out of necessity (aircraft range limitations). That's not a big enough market to survive on O&D traffic alone (unlike most of AA's JFK transatlantic network), so yes, AA will need to rely on AS heavily for feed on that one (although they should be able to provide some of their own feed from LAX, DFW, etc. as well). I'm sure they'd optimally like to fly to BLR from one of their real hubs where they could get the revenue for the domestic connections, but that just isn't possible with a 285-seat 789. SEA-PVG is really an attempt to take the money losing LAX-PVG route and try to make something out of it before letting the slot go back into the pool. SEA-PVG has less competition than LAX-PVG, but is also a smaller market, so we'll see if it ends up working better for AA. I could see it going either way. Like BLR, I'm sure AA would prefer to fly to PVG out of a hub where they could provide more of their own feed, but they've already tried LAX-PVG and ORD-PVG and neither of those worked long term due to strong competition.

The transatlantic picture is substantially different. AA has a strong hub at PHL with good geography, relatively low costs, and very little long haul competition - perfect for a transatlantic connecting hub even though the PHL O&D isn't as high as other East Coast metros. AA has no West Coast analog hub to PHL. They also have some historical strength in the New York market that they continue to try to preserve by serving important O&D routes. There's lots of competition, but the market is also huge. The B6 partnership now adds the ability for AA to supplement their O&D traffic with some connections they wouldn't have been able to provide via their own metal, but I can tell you AA's not hoping to fill up all those European flights with B6 traffic - they'd like to fill them with mostly O&D. That's much more doable on a route like JFK-CDG or JFK-FCO than a route like SEA-BLR, both due to the size of the local markets and the costs of operating the flights.
This is my signature until I think of a better one.
 
FSDan
Posts: 3319
Joined: Mon Jan 03, 2011 5:27 pm

Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Sat Jul 18, 2020 7:20 pm

aaflyer777 wrote:
The only other TATL route I see AA potentially resuming out of BOS is CDG. Huge market and with B6 feed they shouldn't have any problems filing a 787 in the summer months.


Maybe (after all, they've flown it in the past)... but over the last few years 100% of AA's non-hub transatlantic flying has gone to LHR. Heck, even hubs like LAX and PHX only see LHR service, and ORD gets cut back to just LHR service in the winter. Another thing going against this is that B6 is likely to start this route in the next few years, and they'll want to feed their own flight before a codeshare partner's. In sum, BOS-CDG as a summer seasonal service on AA seems like a remote possibility, but I wouldn't put any money on it.
This is my signature until I think of a better one.
 
MrPeanut
Posts: 157
Joined: Fri Nov 23, 2018 8:36 pm

Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Sat Jul 18, 2020 7:55 pm

FSDan wrote:
The AA SEA strategy is a bit piecemeal so far (calling it a "TPAC hub" is a bit generous at this point IMHO). SEA-BLR was the first route announced, and SEA was chosen as the U.S. gateway for that flight largely out of necessity (aircraft range limitations). That's not a big enough market to survive on O&D traffic alone (unlike most of AA's JFK transatlantic network), so yes, AA will need to rely on AS heavily for feed on that one (although they should be able to provide some of their own feed from LAX, DFW, etc. as well). I'm sure they'd optimally like to fly to BLR from one of their real hubs where they could get the revenue for the domestic connections, but that just isn't possible with a 285-seat 789. SEA-PVG is really an attempt to take the money losing LAX-PVG route and try to make something out of it before letting the slot go back into the pool. SEA-PVG has less competition than LAX-PVG, but is also a smaller market, so we'll see if it ends up working better for AA. I could see it going either way. Like BLR, I'm sure AA would prefer to fly to PVG out of a hub where they could provide more of their own feed, but they've already tried LAX-PVG and ORD-PVG and neither of those worked long term due to strong competition.


The strategy will remain piecemeal. AA will fly to their strengths (LHR) and niche markets BLR. One thing is clear, you cannot run a full flown trans-oceanic gateway using a partner airline to provide domestic feed. The partner airline will always look out for its own best interests first and that includes limiting capacity for their partner. To add to this, they are attempting to use a gateway that is already claimed by another carrier, so margins on routes where AA attempts to compete head to head will not be good.
 
onwFan
Posts: 436
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2016 4:02 am

Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Sat Jul 18, 2020 8:13 pm

Funny how people keep talking about SEA and BOS as some ‘claimed gateways’. At most these were just budding loss-making hubs for DL, and they don’t even fly to many important markets from either place. With DL not even being the largest carrier in either of the markets, bound to shrink 30%, AA/AS/B6 chipping away more traffic, and the effect of covid which no one knows fully; it is simple to see that these going to be just even bigger loss-making focus cities. We just saw what AA’s strategy is, going forward. What is DL’s? Expand more?? We are yet to see...
 
jplatts
Posts: 3612
Joined: Sat Mar 18, 2017 6:42 pm

Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Sun Jul 19, 2020 12:33 am

onwFan wrote:
Funny how people keep talking about SEA and BOS as some ‘claimed gateways’. At most these were just budding loss-making hubs for DL, and they don’t even fly to many important markets from either place. With DL not even being the largest carrier in either of the markets, bound to shrink 30%, AA/AS/B6 chipping away more traffic, and the effect of covid which no one knows fully; it is simple to see that these going to be just even bigger loss-making focus cities. We just saw what AA’s strategy is, going forward. What is DL’s? Expand more?? We are yet to see...


There are some destinations that DL serves nonstop from LGA that aren't served nonstop from LGA or JFK on AA such as BHM, BUF, BTV, CHA, DEN, DSM, GRR, GSP, IAH, JAX, MCI, LEX, MSN, MHT, MKE, MSY, OMA, ROC, SRQ, SAV, SYR, and PBI.

I had also previously mentioned that DL operates a few domestic nonstop routes out of BOS that do not currently have any nonstop competition such as BOS-CVG/MCI/ORF.

DL will likely continue to serve some non-hub destinations nonstop from both LGA and BOS with DL having domestic nonstop routes out of LGA and BOS that aren't served by B6 and that aren't served nonstop by AA.
 
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OzarkD9S
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Sun Jul 19, 2020 1:03 am

jplatts wrote:

There are some destinations that DL serves nonstop from LGA that aren't served nonstop from LGA or JFK on AA such as BHM, BUF, BTV, CHA, DEN, DSM, GRR, GSP, IAH, JAX, MCI, LEX, MSN, MHT, MKE, MSY, OMA, ROC, SRQ, SAV, SYR, and PBI.

I had also previously mentioned that DL operates a few domestic nonstop routes out of BOS that do not currently have any nonstop competition such as BOS-CVG/MCI/ORF.

DL will likely continue to serve some non-hub destinations nonstop from both LGA and BOS with DL having domestic nonstop routes out of LGA and BOS that aren't served by B6 and that aren't served nonstop by AA.


Look at the shiny new toy:

http://www.gcmap.com/mapui

You can create your own airline regardless of whether it makes sense or not. FUN!
"True, I talk of dreams,
Which are the children of an idle brain." -Mercutio
 
kavok
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Sun Jul 19, 2020 1:38 am

FSDan wrote:
kavok wrote:
FSDan wrote:

PHL. AA network planning has made it pretty clear that NY international flying needs to be supported by O&D (and ATH and TLV certainly seem to fit that description). PHL has lower costs and way more feed, and will continue to be the better gateway for secondary or leisure oriented transatlantic flights. I don't see AA starting additional transatlantic flights out of BOS beyond LHR.

AA ultimately has little incentive to drive their connecting traffic to B6. They'd rather make the money themselves on profitable domestic flights connecting into the PHL hub. With JFK, their feeder network was likely not profitable, while the long haul flights were reportedly doing well last year. For AA to keep those long haul flights profitable in the long run while ditching an unprofitable feeder operation, it helps to be able to supplement the hefty O&D traffic with some additional connecting passengers from B6. But B6 gets 100% of the revenue from the domestic leg in that scenario (unless AA is selling B6 operated flights above cost, which makes them a less competitive option).


I appreciate the information and responses. I have to then follow with another question of whether AA is taking up a different strategy on TATL vs TPAC. Arguably building up SEA as a TPAC hub is relying mostly on a partner feed, as AA only serves SEA from 7 of its hubs. But SEA obviously has the best geography for TPAC. Conversely on the TATL side, AA is using PHL over BOS/JFK for the reasons you mentioned. BOS/JFK both have better geography than PHL and now have partner feed too, but PHL is a Fortress hub.

So long story short, are the AA TATL and TPAC strategies inconsistent?


First of all, I see no reason an airline needs to have "consistent" strategies to different regions of the globe that have different geographical factors, different partner situations, different economic factors, different historical strengths, etc.

The AA SEA strategy is a bit piecemeal so far (calling it a "TPAC hub" is a bit generous at this point IMHO). SEA-BLR was the first route announced, and SEA was chosen as the U.S. gateway for that flight largely out of necessity (aircraft range limitations). That's not a big enough market to survive on O&D traffic alone (unlike most of AA's JFK transatlantic network), so yes, AA will need to rely on AS heavily for feed on that one (although they should be able to provide some of their own feed from LAX, DFW, etc. as well). I'm sure they'd optimally like to fly to BLR from one of their real hubs where they could get the revenue for the domestic connections, but that just isn't possible with a 285-seat 789. SEA-PVG is really an attempt to take the money losing LAX-PVG route and try to make something out of it before letting the slot go back into the pool. SEA-PVG has less competition than LAX-PVG, but is also a smaller market, so we'll see if it ends up working better for AA. I could see it going either way. Like BLR, I'm sure AA would prefer to fly to PVG out of a hub where they could provide more of their own feed, but they've already tried LAX-PVG and ORD-PVG and neither of those worked long term due to strong competition.

The transatlantic picture is substantially different. AA has a strong hub at PHL with good geography, relatively low costs, and very little long haul competition - perfect for a transatlantic connecting hub even though the PHL O&D isn't as high as other East Coast metros. AA has no West Coast analog hub to PHL. They also have some historical strength in the New York market that they continue to try to preserve by serving important O&D routes. There's lots of competition, but the market is also huge. The B6 partnership now adds the ability for AA to supplement their O&D traffic with some connections they wouldn't have been able to provide via their own metal, but I can tell you AA's not hoping to fill up all those European flights with B6 traffic - they'd like to fill them with mostly O&D. That's much more doable on a route like JFK-CDG or JFK-FCO than a route like SEA-BLR, both due to the size of the local markets and the costs of operating the flights.


Good info. I appreciate the post.
 
RainerBoeing777
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Sun Jul 19, 2020 2:03 am

A question still AA plans DFW-TLV and DFW-AKL?
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JohanTally
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Sun Jul 19, 2020 2:07 am

jplatts wrote:
onwFan wrote:
Funny how people keep talking about SEA and BOS as some ‘claimed gateways’. At most these were just budding loss-making hubs for DL, and they don’t even fly to many important markets from either place. With DL not even being the largest carrier in either of the markets, bound to shrink 30%, AA/AS/B6 chipping away more traffic, and the effect of covid which no one knows fully; it is simple to see that these going to be just even bigger loss-making focus cities. We just saw what AA’s strategy is, going forward. What is DL’s? Expand more?? We are yet to see...


There are some destinations that DL serves nonstop from LGA that aren't served nonstop from LGA or JFK on AA such as BHM, BUF, BTV, CHA, DEN, DSM, GRR, GSP, IAH, JAX, MCI, LEX, MSN, MHT, MKE, MSY, OMA, ROC, SRQ, SAV, SYR, and PBI.

I had also previously mentioned that DL operates a few domestic nonstop routes out of BOS that do not currently have any nonstop competition such as BOS-CVG/MCI/ORF.

DL will likely continue to serve some non-hub destinations nonstop from both LGA and BOS with DL having domestic nonstop routes out of LGA and BOS that aren't served by B6 and that aren't served nonstop by AA.


Most of those routes are Ex-US routes that were traded for DL slot pairs at DCA which now has the highest AA margins along with DFW and CLT
 
Ishrion
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Sun Jul 19, 2020 2:13 am

RainerBoeing777 wrote:
A question still AA plans DFW-TLV and DFW-AKL?


Both are still planned for winter 2021 from the latest announcements. It's unclear if JFK-TLV will affect DFW-TLV.
 
Ishrion
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Sun Jul 19, 2020 11:37 am

American has scheduled the 787-8 on Miami to Barcelona from October 24, 2020.

Additionally, Miami to Rio de Janeiro will see the 787-8 from October 24, 2020 instead of January 2021. The second daily seasonal MIA-GIG flight set for January 2021 has been cancelled.

From October 25, 2020, MIA-DFW/LAX/PHL will see a daily 787-8, and MIA-ORD will see a temporary 787-8 from December 17 to January 21.

https://www.routesonline.com/news/38/ai ... e-in-nw20/
 
sagechan
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Sun Jul 19, 2020 2:10 pm

Ishrion wrote:
Brickell305 wrote:
airplanedaj wrote:

Probably not, since they would need a HND slot (they could go NRT but I think theyve more or less consolidated into HND) and JAL already serves the route multiple Times daily (JV I think). Maybe, but doubtful.

I don’t think TYO is coming but AA still flies to NRT from both DFW and LAX.


AA only does NRT from DFW now. The daily LAX-NRT was shifted to HND so it's 2x LAX-HND.


Right now it's 3x weekly from LAX and Daily form DFW to HND, LAX goes 1x daily on 8/17. Not sure when the second daily LAX-HND will actually start.
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Ishrion
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Sun Jul 19, 2020 3:15 pm

sagechan wrote:
Ishrion wrote:
Brickell305 wrote:
I don’t think TYO is coming but AA still flies to NRT from both DFW and LAX.


AA only does NRT from DFW now. The daily LAX-NRT was shifted to HND so it's 2x LAX-HND.


Right now it's 3x weekly from LAX and Daily form DFW to HND, LAX goes 1x daily on 8/17. Not sure when the second daily LAX-HND will actually start.


Other way around, DFW-HND is 3x weekly and LAX-HND is daily.

AA exited LAX-NRT and should've been flying 2x daily LAX-HND from March if COVID didn't happen.

The second daily LAX-HND will begin October 24, 2020.
 
FlyingElvii
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Sun Jul 19, 2020 3:26 pm

Miamiairport wrote:
Corporate America is about to make a huge shift. Less travel (because Zoom may be inferior to in person but it's a hella of lot cheaper and that makes the suits happy), closing of office spaces and moving from certain major cities to smaller cities or no office space at all. Leasing office space in NYC or LA is expensive and now there's the fear factor with COVID 19 and violence/crime. All of this will shake up the travel, hospitality and commercial real estate industry.

We are not going back to 1/1/2020. If the economy goes the way I think it will go (when all the free money from the Fed is stopped) there will be massive changes in travel. Predicting this future is nearly impossible.

I agree...
At this point, it is about survival, not convenience, or even competition.
That means retreating to your core markets and strengths.
 
FlyingElvii
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Sun Jul 19, 2020 3:39 pm

USAirALB wrote:
In light of today's announcement regarding JFK-ATH/TLV, and this past weekend's OAG update showing a number of short-haul runs ex PHL were suspended outright (or reduced) and transferred to CLT, I am starting to question AA's role at PHL going forward. I don't think it would be de-hubbed, but it just seems interesting.

On a different note, I fail to see how the AS partnership helps AA in LAX. AA serves more destinations ex LAX than AS does, and the only "unique" AS routes ex LAX that AA does not fly are BOI/BWI/DAL/PAE/RSW/FLL*/GDL/ZIH/LIB/LTO/ZLO/MZT/EWR*/GEG. Sure that is a decent number, but it isn't anything truly unique, except for maybe the Mexican resort network.

*Routes AA used to fly nonstop ex LAX

As things recover, IF they recover, AA can still run International from LAX with AS feed. AS gets the extra traffic, without the competition.
 
FlyingElvii
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Sun Jul 19, 2020 3:56 pm

airzona11 wrote:
Jo8338 wrote:
Vctony wrote:

To me that screams that PHX will be hit with the buzzsaw.

We have an idea as to where some of the LAX cuts are coming from (the reduced international flying).

PHX cuts will be severe (each flight requires fewer FAs so to cut that many FAs means a larger cut of flying).

WN is currently the largest carrier at PHX in terms of passengers and it doesn't appear that this stat is likely to change.



PHX will likely see a lot of mainline going down to 76 seat regional.


But PHX has great metrics as a connecting hub. 76 seat regionals don't work in that model. Once AZ (TX and FL) have the cases and hysteria come down (that will happen), those are the growth markets in the country. A321s and 738s rule are the backbone of the PHX flying. AA has retrenched in their mega DFW Hub, while I am not saying PHX holds as is today, relative to other stations, I am not sure buzzsaw and shift to CRJs is what is in store.

Mesa Or Skywest Rj’s are likely the future in PHX.
Mesa reliability problems are due to a small number of aircraft spread over a huge area. Just no way to recover from mechanicals and IROP’s easily. Concentrating them in PHX and LAX solves a lot of issues going forward.

IMHO, PHX and PHL are the easiest places to make big cuts, and save money. You will likely see a big retrenchment for MIA as well, before this is over.
 
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BA744PHX
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Sun Jul 19, 2020 4:12 pm

FlyingElvii wrote:
airzona11 wrote:
Jo8338 wrote:


PHX will likely see a lot of mainline going down to 76 seat regional.


But PHX has great metrics as a connecting hub. 76 seat regionals don't work in that model. Once AZ (TX and FL) have the cases and hysteria come down (that will happen), those are the growth markets in the country. A321s and 738s rule are the backbone of the PHX flying. AA has retrenched in their mega DFW Hub, while I am not saying PHX holds as is today, relative to other stations, I am not sure buzzsaw and shift to CRJs is what is in store.

Mesa Or Skywest Rj’s are likely the future in PHX.
Mesa reliability problems are due to a small number of aircraft spread over a huge area. Just no way to recover from mechanicals and IROP’s easily. Concentrating them in PHX and LAX solves a lot of issues going forward.

IMHO, PHX and PHL are the easiest places to make big cuts, and save money. You will likely see a big retrenchment for MIA as well, before this is over.

Incorrect, LAX & JFK are being cut to save money
 
11C
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Sun Jul 19, 2020 4:48 pm

KlimaBXsst wrote:
Congratulations to American upon the coup of turning JetBlue and Alaska into

Eagle Flights and Eagle Shuttles.


That’s an interesting spin to put on this. I guess time will tell who ends up benefiting. I guess you don’t buy the argument that all three airlines could benefit.
 
sagechan
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Sun Jul 19, 2020 5:21 pm

Ishrion wrote:
sagechan wrote:
Ishrion wrote:

AA only does NRT from DFW now. The daily LAX-NRT was shifted to HND so it's 2x LAX-HND.


Right now it's 3x weekly from LAX and Daily form DFW to HND, LAX goes 1x daily on 8/17. Not sure when the second daily LAX-HND will actually start.


Other way around, DFW-HND is 3x weekly and LAX-HND is daily.

AA exited LAX-NRT and should've been flying 2x daily LAX-HND from March if COVID didn't happen.

The second daily LAX-HND will begin October 24, 2020.

You're correct, looked at it wrong.
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MrPeanut
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Sun Jul 19, 2020 5:34 pm

11C wrote:
KlimaBXsst wrote:
Congratulations to American upon the coup of turning JetBlue and Alaska into

Eagle Flights and Eagle Shuttles.


That’s an interesting spin to put on this. I guess time will tell who ends up benefiting. I guess you don’t buy the argument that all three airlines could benefit.


I think your bigger winners are JetBlue and Alaska. AA wins by exiting money losing routes and turning that traffic over to partner flying. It still doesn’t solve AA’s problem, just puts a bandage on it.

I find their JetBlue strategy curious. AA wants to use the JetBlue domestic feed to help support new international routes from JFK. I don’t think you will see international routes flying at scale by summer next year. In the meantime if you use JFK for domestic connecting opportunities, then you cannibalize PHL in favor of a partner airline.

AA drew down JFK originally in favor of PHL, now they are attempting to reverse course by using a partner airline? It seems like no recipe is working for them.
 
USAirALB
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Sun Jul 19, 2020 5:55 pm

MrPeanut wrote:
AA drew down JFK originally in favor of PHL, now they are attempting to reverse course by using a partner airline? It seems like no recipe is working for them.

Agreed.

I have to give credit to AA because over the years since the US merger they truly have tried a number of routes ex JFK (DEN/BHX come to mind) that never stuck.

Quite frankly, I am surprised to see both AUS/SAT haven't been dropped yet. They seem like low-hanging fruit.

I wouldn't be surprised to see ZRH shift back to JFK. US couldn't really make the route work from PHL and it was originally suspended IIRC, only to be moved back to PHL a couple of years after the merger. I would also like to see AA make another attempt at JFK-FRA. It seems fairly low-risk to me, given that it isn't an entirely new station, and I am sure the market is quite different after having been absent from the route for, what 20+ years? I understand that AA has a very poor market recognition in Germany, and it's quite sad that they can only really make Germany work ex CLT.

They now have year round BCN/EZE/LHR/MAD/MXP/CDG/GRU/TLV from JFK, and seasonal ATH/GIG/FCO. While modest, that's a decent intercontinental network. If they could manage to make ZRH/FRA work it would be perfect.

It's interesting to see what happens with SAA. I wonder if AA would be willing to make a go at JFK-JNB.
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Ishrion
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Sun Jul 19, 2020 6:01 pm

MrPeanut wrote:

I find their JetBlue strategy curious. AA wants to use the JetBlue domestic feed to help support new international routes from JFK. I don’t think you will see international routes flying at scale by summer next year. In the meantime if you use JFK for domestic connecting opportunities, then you cannibalize PHL in favor of a partner airline.

AA drew down JFK originally in favor of PHL, now they are attempting to reverse course by using a partner airline? It seems like no recipe is working for them.


American is using COVID to "reset" its international network. They're taking advantage of weaker airlines to gain market share in routes with high O&D, such as JFK-TLV.

The JFK expansion is supposed to complement PHL, but we'll see if they hold their promise.
 
airzona11
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Sun Jul 19, 2020 6:59 pm

FlyingElvii wrote:
airzona11 wrote:
Jo8338 wrote:


PHX will likely see a lot of mainline going down to 76 seat regional.


But PHX has great metrics as a connecting hub. 76 seat regionals don't work in that model. Once AZ (TX and FL) have the cases and hysteria come down (that will happen), those are the growth markets in the country. A321s and 738s rule are the backbone of the PHX flying. AA has retrenched in their mega DFW Hub, while I am not saying PHX holds as is today, relative to other stations, I am not sure buzzsaw and shift to CRJs is what is in store.

Mesa Or Skywest Rj’s are likely the future in PHX.
Mesa reliability problems are due to a small number of aircraft spread over a huge area. Just no way to recover from mechanicals and IROP’s easily. Concentrating them in PHX and LAX solves a lot of issues going forward.

IMHO, PHX and PHL are the easiest places to make big cuts, and save money. You will likely see a big retrenchment for MIA as well, before this is over.


PHX costs are lower than nearby LAX, which is more crowded. AA is pulling back LAX to focus on core O/D, phx is less expensive and optimized for a west coast hub in the new scenario. They've already cut LAX but don't have to lose market share flowing connecting traffic over PHX. Every where will take cuts, but again don't think PHx takes big cuts. AA would have to concede west coast market share to AS and competitors if that is the case.
 
Cointrin330
Posts: 1993
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Sun Jul 19, 2020 6:59 pm

USAirALB wrote:
MrPeanut wrote:
AA drew down JFK originally in favor of PHL, now they are attempting to reverse course by using a partner airline? It seems like no recipe is working for them.

Agreed.

I have to give credit to AA because over the years since the US merger they truly have tried a number of routes ex JFK (DEN/BHX come to mind) that never stuck.

Quite frankly, I am surprised to see both AUS/SAT haven't been dropped yet. They seem like low-hanging fruit.

I wouldn't be surprised to see ZRH shift back to JFK. US couldn't really make the route work from PHL and it was originally suspended IIRC, only to be moved back to PHL a couple of years after the merger. I would also like to see AA make another attempt at JFK-FRA. It seems fairly low-risk to me, given that it isn't an entirely new station, and I am sure the market is quite different after having been absent from the route for, what 20+ years? I understand that AA has a very poor market recognition in Germany, and it's quite sad that they can only really make Germany work ex CLT.

They now have year round BCN/EZE/LHR/MAD/MXP/CDG/GRU/TLV from JFK, and seasonal ATH/GIG/FCO. While modest, that's a decent intercontinental network. If they could manage to make ZRH/FRA work it would be perfect.

It's interesting to see what happens with SAA. I wonder if AA would be willing to make a go at JFK-JNB.


AA operated JFK-ZRH continuously from 1987, when it launched alongside ORY and FRA, until it was moved to PHL. I'm not so sure AA will be able to move it back to JFK. American held corporate contracts on the JFK-ZRH route from a number of Swiss companies with POS in the US, namely UBS and Credit Suisse. Some of those contracts dried up, particularly has DL entered the market. AA was still operating JFK-ZRH with an outdated product on the 767-300ER, which had increasing dispatch reliability problems. AA finally turned a profit at JFK in 2019 when it shifted all intercontinental flying to the 777 (the last 2 routes were CDG and MAD which were up gauged from the 767-300ER to the 777-200ER). A streamlined operation, somewhat consistent product, and more cargo capacity, helped to make the network profitable. The question for ZRH and JFK and AA is whether AA will move it back and use a 777, which for AA, is likely too much plane for this route, though the cargo left will help somewhat. AA has operated ZRH in the past from DFW and ORD as well. Unlikely either will see a link to ZRH, but if one materializes, it would be DFW and definitely not ORD. The B6 link up may help AA a bit in considering any shift of the ZRH service back to JFK. As for FRA, it's unlikely AA will add it from JFK. AA can't seem to make Germany work unless it is from a huge hub. Even with B6, I don't see AA being able to make FRA work, even with corporate traffic, but if global air travel rebounds well (a long shot at this point), perhaps, but I'd think ZRH would come back before FRA at JFK for AA. AA operated JFK to FRA from 1987 to 1990 or 1991 before canning it.
 
USAirALB
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Sun Jul 19, 2020 7:15 pm

Cointrin330 wrote:
USAirALB wrote:
MrPeanut wrote:
AA drew down JFK originally in favor of PHL, now they are attempting to reverse course by using a partner airline? It seems like no recipe is working for them.

Agreed.

I have to give credit to AA because over the years since the US merger they truly have tried a number of routes ex JFK (DEN/BHX come to mind) that never stuck.

Quite frankly, I am surprised to see both AUS/SAT haven't been dropped yet. They seem like low-hanging fruit.

I wouldn't be surprised to see ZRH shift back to JFK. US couldn't really make the route work from PHL and it was originally suspended IIRC, only to be moved back to PHL a couple of years after the merger. I would also like to see AA make another attempt at JFK-FRA. It seems fairly low-risk to me, given that it isn't an entirely new station, and I am sure the market is quite different after having been absent from the route for, what 20+ years? I understand that AA has a very poor market recognition in Germany, and it's quite sad that they can only really make Germany work ex CLT.

They now have year round BCN/EZE/LHR/MAD/MXP/CDG/GRU/TLV from JFK, and seasonal ATH/GIG/FCO. While modest, that's a decent intercontinental network. If they could manage to make ZRH/FRA work it would be perfect.

It's interesting to see what happens with SAA. I wonder if AA would be willing to make a go at JFK-JNB.


AA operated JFK-ZRH continuously from 1987, when it launched alongside ORY and FRA, until it was moved to PHL. I'm not so sure AA will be able to move it back to JFK. American held corporate contracts on the JFK-ZRH route from a number of Swiss companies with POS in the US, namely UBS and Credit Suisse. Some of those contracts dried up, particularly has DL entered the market. AA was still operating JFK-ZRH with an outdated product on the 767-300ER, which had increasing dispatch reliability problems. AA finally turned a profit at JFK in 2019 when it shifted all intercontinental flying to the 777 (the last 2 routes were CDG and MAD which were up gauged from the 767-300ER to the 777-200ER). A streamlined operation, somewhat consistent product, and more cargo capacity, helped to make the network profitable. The question for ZRH and JFK and AA is whether AA will move it back and use a 777, which for AA, is likely too much plane for this route, though the cargo left will help somewhat. AA has operated ZRH in the past from DFW and ORD as well. Unlikely either will see a link to ZRH, but if one materializes, it would be DFW and definitely not ORD. The B6 link up may help AA a bit in considering any shift of the ZRH service back to JFK. As for FRA, it's unlikely AA will add it from JFK. AA can't seem to make Germany work unless it is from a huge hub. Even with B6, I don't see AA being able to make FRA work, even with corporate traffic, but if global air travel rebounds well (a long shot at this point), perhaps, but I'd think ZRH would come back before FRA at JFK for AA. AA operated JFK to FRA from 1987 to 1990 or 1991 before canning it.

IIRC DFW-ZRH was once AA’s most profitable long-haul route but the profits dried up once LX shifted closer to *A and dropped their partnership with AA.
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panamair
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Sun Jul 19, 2020 7:30 pm

ZRH and Switzerland in general is a small and specialized market; it is a difficult market for most non-Star Alliance carriers due to the strength of the home carrier as well as the 'boutique' nature of the market. The back is usually difficult to fill on a year-round basis as it is an expensive tourist destination, so does not get the kind of mass tourist traffic that Spain, Italy, and France get. While it looks very attractive due to the business and well-heeled traffic up front, that is still ultimately small segment of the market, and only so much of it to go around.
 
MAH4546
Posts: 26220
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Sun Jul 19, 2020 7:43 pm

airzona11 wrote:
FlyingElvii wrote:
airzona11 wrote:

But PHX has great metrics as a connecting hub. 76 seat regionals don't work in that model. Once AZ (TX and FL) have the cases and hysteria come down (that will happen), those are the growth markets in the country. A321s and 738s rule are the backbone of the PHX flying. AA has retrenched in their mega DFW Hub, while I am not saying PHX holds as is today, relative to other stations, I am not sure buzzsaw and shift to CRJs is what is in store.

Mesa Or Skywest Rj’s are likely the future in PHX.
Mesa reliability problems are due to a small number of aircraft spread over a huge area. Just no way to recover from mechanicals and IROP’s easily. Concentrating them in PHX and LAX solves a lot of issues going forward.

IMHO, PHX and PHL are the easiest places to make big cuts, and save money. You will likely see a big retrenchment for MIA as well, before this is over.


PHX costs are lower than nearby LAX, which is more crowded. AA is pulling back LAX to focus on core O/D, phx is less expensive and optimized for a west coast hub in the new scenario. They've already cut LAX but don't have to lose market share flowing connecting traffic over PHX. Every where will take cuts, but again don't think PHx takes big cuts. AA would have to concede west coast market share to AS and competitors if that is the case.


AA is maintaining a large hub at LAX that will feed Hawaii, Oceania, Japan and OW partners. It is not pulling back to “core O&D.”
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Cointrin330
Posts: 1993
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Sun Jul 19, 2020 8:14 pm

USAirALB wrote:
Cointrin330 wrote:
USAirALB wrote:
Agreed.

I have to give credit to AA because over the years since the US merger they truly have tried a number of routes ex JFK (DEN/BHX come to mind) that never stuck.

Quite frankly, I am surprised to see both AUS/SAT haven't been dropped yet. They seem like low-hanging fruit.

I wouldn't be surprised to see ZRH shift back to JFK. US couldn't really make the route work from PHL and it was originally suspended IIRC, only to be moved back to PHL a couple of years after the merger. I would also like to see AA make another attempt at JFK-FRA. It seems fairly low-risk to me, given that it isn't an entirely new station, and I am sure the market is quite different after having been absent from the route for, what 20+ years? I understand that AA has a very poor market recognition in Germany, and it's quite sad that they can only really make Germany work ex CLT.

They now have year round BCN/EZE/LHR/MAD/MXP/CDG/GRU/TLV from JFK, and seasonal ATH/GIG/FCO. While modest, that's a decent intercontinental network. If they could manage to make ZRH/FRA work it would be perfect.

It's interesting to see what happens with SAA. I wonder if AA would be willing to make a go at JFK-JNB.


AA operated JFK-ZRH continuously from 1987, when it launched alongside ORY and FRA, until it was moved to PHL. I'm not so sure AA will be able to move it back to JFK. American held corporate contracts on the JFK-ZRH route from a number of Swiss companies with POS in the US, namely UBS and Credit Suisse. Some of those contracts dried up, particularly has DL entered the market. AA was still operating JFK-ZRH with an outdated product on the 767-300ER, which had increasing dispatch reliability problems. AA finally turned a profit at JFK in 2019 when it shifted all intercontinental flying to the 777 (the last 2 routes were CDG and MAD which were up gauged from the 767-300ER to the 777-200ER). A streamlined operation, somewhat consistent product, and more cargo capacity, helped to make the network profitable. The question for ZRH and JFK and AA is whether AA will move it back and use a 777, which for AA, is likely too much plane for this route, though the cargo left will help somewhat. AA has operated ZRH in the past from DFW and ORD as well. Unlikely either will see a link to ZRH, but if one materializes, it would be DFW and definitely not ORD. The B6 link up may help AA a bit in considering any shift of the ZRH service back to JFK. As for FRA, it's unlikely AA will add it from JFK. AA can't seem to make Germany work unless it is from a huge hub. Even with B6, I don't see AA being able to make FRA work, even with corporate traffic, but if global air travel rebounds well (a long shot at this point), perhaps, but I'd think ZRH would come back before FRA at JFK for AA. AA operated JFK to FRA from 1987 to 1990 or 1991 before canning it.


IIRC DFW-ZRH was once AA’s most profitable long-haul route but the profits dried up once LX shifted closer to *A and dropped their partnership with AA.


DFW-ZRH was indeed one of the most profitable long hauls for AA, but I'm not sure if it eclipsed any of the LHR services. You're right though that LX and AA had interline agreements, but once LX went to Star and dropped the partnership with AA, the DFW was axed.
 
FSDan
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Sun Jul 19, 2020 10:10 pm

onwFan wrote:
Funny how people keep talking about SEA and BOS as some ‘claimed gateways’. At most these were just budding loss-making hubs for DL, and they don’t even fly to many important markets from either place. With DL not even being the largest carrier in either of the markets, bound to shrink 30%, AA/AS/B6 chipping away more traffic, and the effect of covid which no one knows fully; it is simple to see that these going to be just even bigger loss-making focus cities. We just saw what AA’s strategy is, going forward. What is DL’s? Expand more?? We are yet to see...


You can't really lump SEA and BOS together for DL. Yes, BOS was very much in the "budding" phase before COVID-19 and many of the new routes like BOS-ORD/MIA/FLL/DCA/PHL/EWR/BUF were very likely loss making. It is likely the most vulnerable hub for DL right now. On the other hand, DL has had a hub in SEA for years now, and has been bringing that hub back fairly quickly after the initial drawdown due to the virus. People like to toss around the idea that the SEA hub was losing a lot of money for DL, but I've actually never seen any credible proof of that. We've heard DL state that the hub was "meeting expectations", whatever those expectations were, and we've seen them continue to add new flights and markets and upgauge over the years. This summer DL was planning to be bigger than ever in SEA.

So on a route like SEA-PVG, I think it's very valid to question how AA will perform vs DL. DL is well-established on that route, has a partner on the China end, and has the ability to control pricing and traffic flow for domestic connections on the U.S. end. AA has the advantage of being partnered with the strongest carrier in the SEA market, which will help them with O&D. On product, DL's economy class will beat AA's hands down. In J, it should be more of an even match as far as I can tell. It will be interesting to watch for sure, but I think it's very premature to proclaim that AA's SEA long haul strategy will be a success.
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FSDan
Posts: 3319
Joined: Mon Jan 03, 2011 5:27 pm

Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Sun Jul 19, 2020 10:12 pm

JohanTally wrote:
jplatts wrote:
onwFan wrote:
Funny how people keep talking about SEA and BOS as some ‘claimed gateways’. At most these were just budding loss-making hubs for DL, and they don’t even fly to many important markets from either place. With DL not even being the largest carrier in either of the markets, bound to shrink 30%, AA/AS/B6 chipping away more traffic, and the effect of covid which no one knows fully; it is simple to see that these going to be just even bigger loss-making focus cities. We just saw what AA’s strategy is, going forward. What is DL’s? Expand more?? We are yet to see...


There are some destinations that DL serves nonstop from LGA that aren't served nonstop from LGA or JFK on AA such as BHM, BUF, BTV, CHA, DEN, DSM, GRR, GSP, IAH, JAX, MCI, LEX, MSN, MHT, MKE, MSY, OMA, ROC, SRQ, SAV, SYR, and PBI.

I had also previously mentioned that DL operates a few domestic nonstop routes out of BOS that do not currently have any nonstop competition such as BOS-CVG/MCI/ORF.

DL will likely continue to serve some non-hub destinations nonstop from both LGA and BOS with DL having domestic nonstop routes out of LGA and BOS that aren't served by B6 and that aren't served nonstop by AA.


Most of those routes are Ex-US routes that were traded for DL slot pairs at DCA which now has the highest AA margins along with DFW and CLT


Not entirely true. The slots are ex-US, but the routes are quite different. US was flying 20+ daily to PHL and then mostly a bunch of other Northeast destinations on DH8s, ER4s, and CR2s. They were not flying to the likes of BHM, CHA, DEN, DSM, GRR, GSP, IAH, JAX, MCI, LEX, MSN, MKE, MSY, OMA, SRQ, SAV, or PBI, at least in the last few years of their hub at LGA.
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DMPHL
Posts: 32
Joined: Sat Nov 04, 2017 6:33 pm

Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Sun Jul 19, 2020 10:51 pm

FSDan wrote:
JohanTally wrote:
jplatts wrote:

There are some destinations that DL serves nonstop from LGA that aren't served nonstop from LGA or JFK on AA such as BHM, BUF, BTV, CHA, DEN, DSM, GRR, GSP, IAH, JAX, MCI, LEX, MSN, MHT, MKE, MSY, OMA, ROC, SRQ, SAV, SYR, and PBI.

I had also previously mentioned that DL operates a few domestic nonstop routes out of BOS that do not currently have any nonstop competition such as BOS-CVG/MCI/ORF.

DL will likely continue to serve some non-hub destinations nonstop from both LGA and BOS with DL having domestic nonstop routes out of LGA and BOS that aren't served by B6 and that aren't served nonstop by AA.


Most of those routes are Ex-US routes that were traded for DL slot pairs at DCA which now has the highest AA margins along with DFW and CLT


Not entirely true. The slots are ex-US, but the routes are quite different. US was flying 20+ daily to PHL and then mostly a bunch of other Northeast destinations on DH8s, ER4s, and CR2s. They were not flying to the likes of BHM, CHA, DEN, DSM, GRR, GSP, IAH, JAX, MCI, LEX, MSN, MKE, MSY, OMA, SRQ, SAV, or PBI, at least in the last few years of their hub at LGA.


To note, AA has a partner on the China, end, too...CZ, with whom AA codeshares in China—who also codeshares with DL—and who left SkyTeam when AA purchased an equity stake in them.

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