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onwFan
Posts: 440
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Sun Jul 19, 2020 11:16 pm

FSDan wrote:
onwFan wrote:
Funny how people keep talking about SEA and BOS as some ‘claimed gateways’. At most these were just budding loss-making hubs for DL, and they don’t even fly to many important markets from either place. With DL not even being the largest carrier in either of the markets, bound to shrink 30%, AA/AS/B6 chipping away more traffic, and the effect of covid which no one knows fully; it is simple to see that these going to be just even bigger loss-making focus cities. We just saw what AA’s strategy is, going forward. What is DL’s? Expand more?? We are yet to see...


You can't really lump SEA and BOS together for DL. Yes, BOS was very much in the "budding" phase before COVID-19 and many of the new routes like BOS-ORD/MIA/FLL/DCA/PHL/EWR/BUF were very likely loss making. It is likely the most vulnerable hub for DL right now. On the other hand, DL has had a hub in SEA for years now, and has been bringing that hub back fairly quickly after the initial drawdown due to the virus. People like to toss around the idea that the SEA hub was losing a lot of money for DL, but I've actually never seen any credible proof of that. We've heard DL state that the hub was "meeting expectations", whatever those expectations were, and we've seen them continue to add new flights and markets and upgauge over the years. This summer DL was planning to be bigger than ever in SEA.

So on a route like SEA-PVG, I think it's very valid to question how AA will perform vs DL. DL is well-established on that route, has a partner on the China end, and has the ability to control pricing and traffic flow for domestic connections on the U.S. end. AA has the advantage of being partnered with the strongest carrier in the SEA market, which will help them with O&D. On product, DL's economy class will beat AA's hands down. In J, it should be more of an even match as far as I can tell. It will be interesting to watch for sure, but I think it's very premature to proclaim that AA's SEA long haul strategy will be a success.

So you are saying that there is no proof for whether SEA was making profits or losses for DL, okay. But by any standard, ‘meeting expectations’ sounds hardly descriptive of a successful hub, especially pre-covid. With suppressed Asia demand and uncertainty on China routes in the future, one can hardly say that DL is well poised for success at SEA post-covid. If SEA was barely successful pre-covid, then with the additional competition & AA/B6 competing for the business traffic, what is the rationale for SEA making money for them now?
 
tphuang
Posts: 5212
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Mon Jul 20, 2020 12:10 am

FSDan wrote:
onwFan wrote:
Funny how people keep talking about SEA and BOS as some ‘claimed gateways’. At most these were just budding loss-making hubs for DL, and they don’t even fly to many important markets from either place. With DL not even being the largest carrier in either of the markets, bound to shrink 30%, AA/AS/B6 chipping away more traffic, and the effect of covid which no one knows fully; it is simple to see that these going to be just even bigger loss-making focus cities. We just saw what AA’s strategy is, going forward. What is DL’s? Expand more?? We are yet to see...


You can't really lump SEA and BOS together for DL. Yes, BOS was very much in the "budding" phase before COVID-19 and many of the new routes like BOS-ORD/MIA/FLL/DCA/PHL/EWR/BUF were very likely loss making. It is likely the most vulnerable hub for DL right now. On the other hand, DL has had a hub in SEA for years now, and has been bringing that hub back fairly quickly after the initial drawdown due to the virus. People like to toss around the idea that the SEA hub was losing a lot of money for DL, but I've actually never seen any credible proof of that. We've heard DL state that the hub was "meeting expectations", whatever those expectations were, and we've seen them continue to add new flights and markets and upgauge over the years. This summer DL was planning to be bigger than ever in SEA.

So on a route like SEA-PVG, I think it's very valid to question how AA will perform vs DL. DL is well-established on that route, has a partner on the China end, and has the ability to control pricing and traffic flow for domestic connections on the U.S. end. AA has the advantage of being partnered with the strongest carrier in the SEA market, which will help them with O&D. On product, DL's economy class will beat AA's hands down. In J, it should be more of an even match as far as I can tell. It will be interesting to watch for sure, but I think it's very premature to proclaim that AA's SEA long haul strategy will be a success.


I found a lot of things objectionable in Vasu's interview. But one thing he was right is the position that DL is in right now. For a while, it seemed obvious that BOS was where they are going to bring things back very slowly. Due to the AA/B6 partnership, they suddenly decided to schedule in 65 flights in September vs 35 flights in August they are operating to show that they are not to be pushed around. At the same time, they claim that all their hubs will come back and they will continue build up in MIA.

I think what DL is trying to do is not workable. They are planning to be 25% by end of next year but they want to continue to fight against everyone everywhere. It's like they haven't adapted to the new reality that they no longer have the resources to be the bully that they were pre-COVID. Until business travel comes back, DL isn't going to be able to generate the revenue premium that it had before. They are too committed to their "premium carrier" model to adopt a different strategy.

And they are doing all of this and pretending the upcoming tsunami is not around the corner. What are they going to do with slot waiver ends in end of October? Sure, they'd like it to continue, but every LCC/ULCCs are chomping add the bid to grab slots at LGA. How long is DOT going to keep extending the slot waiver if only the legacies want to keep it around? Even if gets extended to March, are they going to be ready to increase their flying from 90 to 240 flights a day? And same with JFK. How are they going to remotely use all of their slots? Especially when northeast business travel isn't back for a long time. At least AA has found a solution of leasing its slots to B6. There is a lot of ambition around at DL, but they have to learn to adjust to the new reality.
 
FSDan
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Tue Jul 21, 2020 12:46 am

onwFan wrote:
FSDan wrote:
onwFan wrote:
Funny how people keep talking about SEA and BOS as some ‘claimed gateways’. At most these were just budding loss-making hubs for DL, and they don’t even fly to many important markets from either place. With DL not even being the largest carrier in either of the markets, bound to shrink 30%, AA/AS/B6 chipping away more traffic, and the effect of covid which no one knows fully; it is simple to see that these going to be just even bigger loss-making focus cities. We just saw what AA’s strategy is, going forward. What is DL’s? Expand more?? We are yet to see...


You can't really lump SEA and BOS together for DL. Yes, BOS was very much in the "budding" phase before COVID-19 and many of the new routes like BOS-ORD/MIA/FLL/DCA/PHL/EWR/BUF were very likely loss making. It is likely the most vulnerable hub for DL right now. On the other hand, DL has had a hub in SEA for years now, and has been bringing that hub back fairly quickly after the initial drawdown due to the virus. People like to toss around the idea that the SEA hub was losing a lot of money for DL, but I've actually never seen any credible proof of that. We've heard DL state that the hub was "meeting expectations", whatever those expectations were, and we've seen them continue to add new flights and markets and upgauge over the years. This summer DL was planning to be bigger than ever in SEA.

So on a route like SEA-PVG, I think it's very valid to question how AA will perform vs DL. DL is well-established on that route, has a partner on the China end, and has the ability to control pricing and traffic flow for domestic connections on the U.S. end. AA has the advantage of being partnered with the strongest carrier in the SEA market, which will help them with O&D. On product, DL's economy class will beat AA's hands down. In J, it should be more of an even match as far as I can tell. It will be interesting to watch for sure, but I think it's very premature to proclaim that AA's SEA long haul strategy will be a success.

So you are saying that there is no proof for whether SEA was making profits or losses for DL, okay. But by any standard, ‘meeting expectations’ sounds hardly descriptive of a successful hub, especially pre-covid. With suppressed Asia demand and uncertainty on China routes in the future, one can hardly say that DL is well poised for success at SEA post-covid. If SEA was barely successful pre-covid, then with the additional competition & AA/B6 competing for the business traffic, what is the rationale for SEA making money for them now?


I'm not about to claim that DL is guaranteed success at SEA post-COVID, but I'm also not of the opinion that their demise there is certain. I think their brand and product are advantages, whereas they're at a clear structural disadvantage to AS with regard to hub scale. I do stand by my statement that SEA and BOS are not in the same phase of their development and vulnerability as DL hubs.
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FSDan
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Tue Jul 21, 2020 1:08 am

tphuang wrote:
FSDan wrote:
onwFan wrote:
Funny how people keep talking about SEA and BOS as some ‘claimed gateways’. At most these were just budding loss-making hubs for DL, and they don’t even fly to many important markets from either place. With DL not even being the largest carrier in either of the markets, bound to shrink 30%, AA/AS/B6 chipping away more traffic, and the effect of covid which no one knows fully; it is simple to see that these going to be just even bigger loss-making focus cities. We just saw what AA’s strategy is, going forward. What is DL’s? Expand more?? We are yet to see...


You can't really lump SEA and BOS together for DL. Yes, BOS was very much in the "budding" phase before COVID-19 and many of the new routes like BOS-ORD/MIA/FLL/DCA/PHL/EWR/BUF were very likely loss making. It is likely the most vulnerable hub for DL right now. On the other hand, DL has had a hub in SEA for years now, and has been bringing that hub back fairly quickly after the initial drawdown due to the virus. People like to toss around the idea that the SEA hub was losing a lot of money for DL, but I've actually never seen any credible proof of that. We've heard DL state that the hub was "meeting expectations", whatever those expectations were, and we've seen them continue to add new flights and markets and upgauge over the years. This summer DL was planning to be bigger than ever in SEA.

So on a route like SEA-PVG, I think it's very valid to question how AA will perform vs DL. DL is well-established on that route, has a partner on the China end, and has the ability to control pricing and traffic flow for domestic connections on the U.S. end. AA has the advantage of being partnered with the strongest carrier in the SEA market, which will help them with O&D. On product, DL's economy class will beat AA's hands down. In J, it should be more of an even match as far as I can tell. It will be interesting to watch for sure, but I think it's very premature to proclaim that AA's SEA long haul strategy will be a success.


I found a lot of things objectionable in Vasu's interview. But one thing he was right is the position that DL is in right now. For a while, it seemed obvious that BOS was where they are going to bring things back very slowly. Due to the AA/B6 partnership, they suddenly decided to schedule in 65 flights in September vs 35 flights in August they are operating to show that they are not to be pushed around. At the same time, they claim that all their hubs will come back and they will continue build up in MIA.

I think what DL is trying to do is not workable. They are planning to be 25% by end of next year but they want to continue to fight against everyone everywhere. It's like they haven't adapted to the new reality that they no longer have the resources to be the bully that they were pre-COVID. Until business travel comes back, DL isn't going to be able to generate the revenue premium that it had before. They are too committed to their "premium carrier" model to adopt a different strategy.

And they are doing all of this and pretending the upcoming tsunami is not around the corner. What are they going to do with slot waiver ends in end of October? Sure, they'd like it to continue, but every LCC/ULCCs are chomping add the bid to grab slots at LGA. How long is DOT going to keep extending the slot waiver if only the legacies want to keep it around? Even if gets extended to March, are they going to be ready to increase their flying from 90 to 240 flights a day? And same with JFK. How are they going to remotely use all of their slots? Especially when northeast business travel isn't back for a long time. At least AA has found a solution of leasing its slots to B6. There is a lot of ambition around at DL, but they have to learn to adjust to the new reality.


I don't think DL's under any illusions about the current situation - they seem to me to be as flexible as anyone else when it comes to adjusting schedules, frequencies, aircraft gauge, etc., and are arguably one of the more conservative airlines so far in bringing back capacity (more aggressive than UA, but less so than AA, WN, B6, NK, etc.). They've also proven through past decisions like pulling out of HKG and drawing down CVG and MEM that they'll make tough decisions when they don't see a path to profitability for a given route or hub. I think they're pretty clearly committed to NYC and L.A., continuing their significant facilities investments in both cities. They'll work pretty hard to figure out solutions to be able to keep those as major operations for the long term. So far they're also committed to SEA, although if they lose corporate contracts and/or U.S. to Asia travel doesn't show signs of coming back, I don't think they'll be willing to bleed themselves into bankruptcy for it. MIA is a small operation in terms of resources committed - likely 3-4 lines of E75 flying and a few lines of additional mainline flying above the baseline, but not much more for now. I certainly don't think DL has it easy by any means. But they're as well-run as anybody, and I'd be surprised if they don't find ways to make their network work for them coming out of this pandemic.
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RainerBoeing777
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Tue Jul 21, 2020 1:34 am

USAirALB wrote:
MrPeanut wrote:
AA drew down JFK originally in favor of PHL, now they are attempting to reverse course by using a partner airline? It seems like no recipe is working for them.

Agreed.

I have to give credit to AA because over the years since the US merger they truly have tried a number of routes ex JFK (DEN/BHX come to mind) that never stuck.

Quite frankly, I am surprised to see both AUS/SAT haven't been dropped yet. They seem like low-hanging fruit.

I wouldn't be surprised to see ZRH shift back to JFK. US couldn't really make the route work from PHL and it was originally suspended IIRC, only to be moved back to PHL a couple of years after the merger. I would also like to see AA make another attempt at JFK-FRA. It seems fairly low-risk to me, given that it isn't an entirely new station, and I am sure the market is quite different after having been absent from the route for, what 20+ years? I understand that AA has a very poor market recognition in Germany, and it's quite sad that they can only really make Germany work ex CLT.

They now have year round BCN/EZE/LHR/MAD/MXP/CDG/GRU/TLV from JFK, and seasonal ATH/GIG/FCO. While modest, that's a decent intercontinental network. If they could manage to make ZRH/FRA work it would be perfect.

It's interesting to see what happens with SAA. I wonder if AA would be willing to make a go at JFK-JNB.


If the A330-200 is reincorporated in 2022, it may be that JFK will join some Boeing 787-8 and can make routes how are you ZRH, FRA, DUB
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SRQLOT
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Thu Jul 23, 2020 8:37 am

Im not sure how much worse it is going to get, but got a call this evening that my round trip flight was rebooked TPA-ORD in middle of August. I waited until August schedule was out just like with my other trip that was cancelled for September with another airline. The flights went from multiple nonstop options to only one with rest connecting in CLT.
LO LH CL BA AZ WN UA DL AA B6 NK G4 F9
717 733/7/8/9/M8 744 752/3 763 788 319/20/21 332/3 M90 RJ85 CR9 Q400 E7/95 (PA28,152)
 
Cointrin330
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Thu Jul 23, 2020 11:40 am

panamair wrote:
ZRH and Switzerland in general is a small and specialized market; it is a difficult market for most non-Star Alliance carriers due to the strength of the home carrier as well as the 'boutique' nature of the market. The back is usually difficult to fill on a year-round basis as it is an expensive tourist destination, so does not get the kind of mass tourist traffic that Spain, Italy, and France get. While it looks very attractive due to the business and well-heeled traffic up front, that is still ultimately small segment of the market, and only so much of it to go around.


Not exactly correct. In fact, this is all misinformed. No, Switzerland is not the tourist mecca in Europe that Italy, France, and Spain are. Switzerland is expensive and attracts a focused, niche tourist market, but its economy is very large, very diverse, and includes a number of global businesses that drive business travel year-round and if the front of the plane subsidizes the back of the bus, that's not really a problem. Aside from food conglomerates, watch making and luxury brands, banking and finance, commerce, and bio tech, Switzerland's two largest international points of entry by air (ZRH and GVA) also attract a considerable amount of NGO traffic year round. It's possible ZRH does not work from PHL all that well, even with connections, though many Swiss firms have US HQ in the surrounding region in NJ, but SR operated PHL-BOS-ZRH for years so there is a market. For AA though, it might be best served from JFK.
 
Ishrion
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Thu Jul 23, 2020 6:08 pm

American and JetBlue are planning "slot moves" at JFK and LGA

https://thepointsguy.com/news/american- ... lot-moves/
 
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OzarkD9S
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Thu Jul 23, 2020 6:44 pm

Ishrion wrote:

American and JetBlue are planning "slot moves" at JFK and LGA

https://thepointsguy.com/news/american- ... lot-moves/


I wonder how much they can "move" around before regulatory eyebrows are raised.
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Which are the children of an idle brain." -Mercutio
 
USAirALB
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Thu Jul 23, 2020 8:59 pm

OzarkD9S wrote:
Ishrion wrote:

American and JetBlue are planning "slot moves" at JFK and LGA

https://thepointsguy.com/news/american- ... lot-moves/


I wonder how much they can "move" around before regulatory eyebrows are raised.

Agreed. Even if they do a slot swap per se, I can't see the consumer winning in any case.

There are some destinations in NYC that AA simply cannot afford to drop: ATL/RDU/BOS/XNA/BNA/STL/YYZ/YUL/MSP/IND/DTW/CLE all seem like key strategic markets for AA at LGA. Additionally, I can't see the the Eagle operation at JFK remaining. IIRC, I thought the regional gates were being eliminated as part of the T8 project? I could see them keeping maybe JFK-BOS/RDU/YYZ/YUL/PHL/PIT on Eagle but that's it. I've mentioned this before, but I can't see AA JFK-AUS/SAT being kept for much longer either.

That said, if they do a slot swap, I don't see B6 picking up say LGA-ROA or LGA-ILM.
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OzarkD9S
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Thu Jul 23, 2020 10:05 pm

USAirALB wrote:

That said, if they do a slot swap, I don't see B6 picking up say LGA-ROA or LGA-ILM.


What does AA get out of a swap? What would B6 be giving up? At this stage its being speculated that AA is handing over some NYC flying over to B6 but except for some feed AA appears to be playing Santa Claus to B6's greedy little urchin. It will be quite interesting to watch this play out.
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Detroit313
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Fri Jul 24, 2020 5:51 am

Vasu made it clear during the townhall today that Tel Aviv from JFK does not affect DFW. Both are schedule to operate.
 
USAirALB
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Sat Jul 25, 2020 6:01 pm

I've noticed that AA has increased CLT-YUL service.

Route usually operates as 1x E175 but it appears starting in September the route changes to 2x A319. I don't think the route has ever had mainline service before.

Granted, this is likely extremely up in the air because of COVID but interesting nonetheless. I wonder if there are any other up-gauges to mainline in the system.
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USPIT10L
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Sat Jul 25, 2020 6:36 pm

USAirALB wrote:
I've noticed that AA has increased CLT-YUL service.

Route usually operates as 1x E175 but it appears starting in September the route changes to 2x A319. I don't think the route has ever had mainline service before.

Granted, this is likely extremely up in the air because of COVID but interesting nonetheless. I wonder if there are any other up-gauges to mainline in the system.


That might've been a planned increase. IINM, the post-Labor Day schedule has not been updated yet. I checked earlier this week and it was still showing the pre-Covid schedule. I wouldn't trust anything post Labor Day in the schedule at this point.
Last edited by USPIT10L on Sat Jul 25, 2020 6:42 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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USAirALB
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Sat Jul 25, 2020 7:35 pm

USPIT10L wrote:
USAirALB wrote:
I've noticed that AA has increased CLT-YUL service.

Route usually operates as 1x E175 but it appears starting in September the route changes to 2x A319. I don't think the route has ever had mainline service before.

Granted, this is likely extremely up in the air because of COVID but interesting nonetheless. I wonder if there are any other up-gauges to mainline in the system.


That might've been a planned increase. IINM, the post-Labor Day schedule has not been updated yet. I checked earlier this week and it was still showing the pre-Covid schedule. I wouldn't trust anything post Labor Day in the schedule at this point.

I agree that it's highly unlikely that the increase comes to fruition at this point, but I still think it's interesting especially considering that AA over the years has been slowly drawing down their transborder services. The increase would add an extra 180 seats/day to the market.
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JohanTally
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Sat Jul 25, 2020 9:13 pm

USAirALB wrote:
I've noticed that AA has increased CLT-YUL service.

Route usually operates as 1x E175 but it appears starting in September the route changes to 2x A319. I don't think the route has ever had mainline service before.

Granted, this is likely extremely up in the air because of COVID but interesting nonetheless. I wonder if there are any other up-gauges to mainline in the system.


The first day of the fall flight schedule has 6 out of 256 seats booked thus far. Either they will keep the 11am flight and cancel the 8pm or cancel both which I'm guessing is more likely. Airlines will probably start preparing their flight schedules to be more in line with the drastically reduced Oct 1st network. After labor day weekend load factors significantly drop and rely almost solely on business travel which won't hardly exist this fall.
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Sun Jul 26, 2020 4:36 pm

Some notable route cuts for August:

BOS/ABQ/TUS-LAX
MCO/BNA/CMH/PIT/RDU/STL/GSO/PHL-LGA
RDU/PIT-DCA (MYR/MSY-DCA weekend only)
AUS/MEM-PHL
SAN/STL/DTW/MCI/CLE/OKC-MIA
PBI/SAT-ORD

Lots of frequency cuts to ORD (MCO/IAH/TPA-ORD down to 1x daily)
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airtran737
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Sun Jul 26, 2020 5:01 pm

Big cancellation package dropped into the system for August today. Looks like LGA is completely done now for Envoy. Lots of DCA flying is also wiped out, and a ton of ORD flying. AA is reducing significantly due to low demand.
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tphuang
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Sun Jul 26, 2020 5:46 pm

From JonNYC on twitter on August cuts,
DFW down about 5%
NYC down near 25%
CLT down barely 2%
MIA down a bit of 25%
PHL, PHX, ORD and LAX all appear to be in/around/about/close-to/not-too-far-from 10% reduction each.


It's like NYC demand is heading back to April level, makes me sad.
 
ahj2000
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Mon Jul 27, 2020 1:47 am

USAirALB wrote:
USPIT10L wrote:
USAirALB wrote:
I've noticed that AA has increased CLT-YUL service.

Route usually operates as 1x E175 but it appears starting in September the route changes to 2x A319. I don't think the route has ever had mainline service before.

Granted, this is likely extremely up in the air because of COVID but interesting nonetheless. I wonder if there are any other up-gauges to mainline in the system.


That might've been a planned increase. IINM, the post-Labor Day schedule has not been updated yet. I checked earlier this week and it was still showing the pre-Covid schedule. I wouldn't trust anything post Labor Day in the schedule at this point.

I agree that it's highly unlikely that the increase comes to fruition at this point, but I still think it's interesting especially considering that AA over the years has been slowly drawing down their transborder services. The increase would add an extra 180 seats/day to the market.

I wonder if this is AA trying to make some money taking Quebecois down south to get some warmth in the fall. CLT has a growing list of Caribbean and Florida destinations served much cheaper, and anything east of about SCU is less mileage via CLT than MIA.
However, I seriously doubt transborder traffic will pick up anytime soon. Trudeau & Co. seem to be quite content with stutting off traffic to the US for a while. Can't say I blame them
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Detroit313
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Mon Jul 27, 2020 10:45 am

Any word on the schedule of JFK - ATH and JFK - TLV yet?
 
MIflyer12
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Mon Jul 27, 2020 12:00 pm

tphuang wrote:
From JonNYC on twitter on August cuts,
DFW down about 5%
NYC down near 25%
CLT down barely 2%
MIA down a bit of 25%
PHL, PHX, ORD and LAX all appear to be in/around/about/close-to/not-too-far-from 10% reduction each.


It's like NYC demand is heading back to April level, makes me sad.


Look at the hot spots. Look at the states from which NY State has set arrival quarantine. Drop that demand off from typical NYC demand:

The full, updated list of states on the travel advisory is below:

Alaska
Alabama
Arkansas
Arizona
California
Delaware
Florida
Georgia
Iowa
Idaho
Indiana
Kansas
Louisiana
Maryland
Missouri
Mississippi
Montana
North Carolina
North Dakota
Nebraska
New Mexico
Nevada
Ohio
Oklahoma
South Carolina
Tennessee
Texas
Utah
Virginia
Washington
Wisconsin


https://www.governor.ny.gov/news/govern ... e-required
 
tphuang
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Mon Jul 27, 2020 12:06 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
tphuang wrote:
From JonNYC on twitter on August cuts,
DFW down about 5%
NYC down near 25%
CLT down barely 2%
MIA down a bit of 25%
PHL, PHX, ORD and LAX all appear to be in/around/about/close-to/not-too-far-from 10% reduction each.


It's like NYC demand is heading back to April level, makes me sad.


Look at the hot spots. Look at the states from which NY State has set arrival quarantine. Drop that demand off from typical NYC demand:

The full, updated list of states on the travel advisory is below:

Alaska
Alabama
Arkansas
Arizona
California
Delaware
Florida
Georgia
Iowa
Idaho
Indiana
Kansas
Louisiana
Maryland
Missouri
Mississippi
Montana
North Carolina
North Dakota
Nebraska
New Mexico
Nevada
Ohio
Oklahoma
South Carolina
Tennessee
Texas
Utah
Virginia
Washington
Wisconsin


https://www.governor.ny.gov/news/govern ... e-required


The problem is when you have a list of that large, people are going to be discouraged from going anywhere.
 
panamair
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Mon Jul 27, 2020 12:16 pm

tphuang wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:
tphuang wrote:
From JonNYC on twitter on August cuts,


It's like NYC demand is heading back to April level, makes me sad.


Look at the hot spots. Look at the states from which NY State has set arrival quarantine. Drop that demand off from typical NYC demand:

The full, updated list of states on the travel advisory is below:

Alaska
Alabama
Arkansas
Arizona
California
Delaware
Florida
Georgia
Iowa
Idaho
Indiana
Kansas
Louisiana
Maryland
Missouri
Mississippi
Montana
North Carolina
North Dakota
Nebraska
New Mexico
Nevada
Ohio
Oklahoma
South Carolina
Tennessee
Texas
Utah
Virginia
Washington
Wisconsin


https://www.governor.ny.gov/news/govern ... e-required


The problem is when you have a list of that large, people are going to be discouraged from going anywhere.


Plus these lists are constantly changing since they are based on infection metrics so even if a state is 'safe' now, it may not be when the NYC traveller tries to come back home after a week's vacation...
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Mon Jul 27, 2020 1:35 pm

AS & AA partnership coming into play:

AA cut Los Angeles to Eugene, Fresno, Louisville, Medford, Redmond/Bend, and San Diego, guess what AS announced a couple weeks ago.....LAX to Eugene, Fresno, Medford, and Redmond/Bend.....
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Ishrion
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Mon Jul 27, 2020 1:49 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
AS & AA partnership coming into play:

AA cut Los Angeles to Eugene, Fresno, Louisville, Medford, Redmond/Bend, and San Diego, guess what AS announced a couple weeks ago.....LAX to Eugene, Fresno, Medford, and Redmond/Bend.....


Wouldn't that count as coordination? Or is just coincidental in this case?
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Mon Jul 27, 2020 1:51 pm

Ishrion wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
AS & AA partnership coming into play:

AA cut Los Angeles to Eugene, Fresno, Louisville, Medford, Redmond/Bend, and San Diego, guess what AS announced a couple weeks ago.....LAX to Eugene, Fresno, Medford, and Redmond/Bend.....


Wouldn't that count as coordination? Or is just coincidental in this case?


I'm sure it's just a coincidence ;)
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cathay747
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Mon Jul 27, 2020 2:22 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
Ishrion wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
AS & AA partnership coming into play:

AA cut Los Angeles to Eugene, Fresno, Louisville, Medford, Redmond/Bend, and San Diego, guess what AS announced a couple weeks ago.....LAX to Eugene, Fresno, Medford, and Redmond/Bend.....


Wouldn't that count as coordination? Or is just coincidental in this case?


I'm sure it's just a coincidence ;)


Of course it is :devil: But as I see it, as long as they don't announce these things simultaneously/jointly, good luck trying to prove "collusion", AS can simply say (perhaps truthfully) that they're taking advantage of another airline exiting various markets that couldn't support more than one airline..."if AA doesn't want them, we'll take 'em".
Try a Little VC-10derness
 
USAirALB
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Mon Jul 27, 2020 2:32 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
AS & AA partnership coming into play:

AA cut Los Angeles to Eugene, Fresno, Louisville, Medford, Redmond/Bend, and San Diego, guess what AS announced a couple weeks ago.....LAX to Eugene, Fresno, Medford, and Redmond/Bend.....

Are these cuts temporary COVID related cuts or are they gone for good?

SAN is somewhat surprising to me. I always saw LAX-SAN as high-frequency and high-yielding connecting traffic.
RJ85, F70, E135, E140, E145, E70, E75, E90, CR2, CR7, CR9, 717, 732, 733, 734, 735, 73G, 738, 739, 744ER, 752, 753, 762, 772, 77E, 77W, 789, 319, 320, 321, 332, 333, 343, 359, 388
 
airzona11
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Mon Jul 27, 2020 2:40 pm

In markets like EUG/RDM. etc those fliers are already used to flying the AA/AS combo, so not a change from a passenger perspective. It also keeps them in the network, not going to UA via SFO or DL via SEA/SLC.

cathay747 wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
Ishrion wrote:

Wouldn't that count as coordination? Or is just coincidental in this case?


I'm sure it's just a coincidence ;)


Of course it is :devil: But as I see it, as long as they don't announce these things simultaneously/jointly, good luck trying to prove "collusion", AS can simply say (perhaps truthfully) that they're taking advantage of another airline exiting various markets that couldn't support more than one airline..."if AA doesn't want them, we'll take 'em".


And so it begins. Others up thread were advocating that schedules could not be coordinated. Adding to your take on the timing, the airlines are already getting relief packages, the Feds already have a very lax policy with airlines, they certainly are not going to tighten the ropes now.

Reminds me when US was in STAR with UA, many options for mileage runs, etc on other metal.
 
Ishrion
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Mon Jul 27, 2020 2:44 pm

USAirALB wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
AS & AA partnership coming into play:

AA cut Los Angeles to Eugene, Fresno, Louisville, Medford, Redmond/Bend, and San Diego, guess what AS announced a couple weeks ago.....LAX to Eugene, Fresno, Medford, and Redmond/Bend.....

Are these cuts temporary COVID related cuts or are they gone for good?

SAN is somewhat surprising to me. I always saw LAX-SAN as high-frequency and high-yielding connecting traffic.


These appear to be permanent cuts. They're no longer bookable into next year.

Of course, I wouldn't be too surprised to see them quickly added back if travel picks up again, unless AA is truly ceding routes to AS in the long-term.
 
USAirALB
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Mon Jul 27, 2020 4:12 pm

Ishrion wrote:
USAirALB wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
AS & AA partnership coming into play:

AA cut Los Angeles to Eugene, Fresno, Louisville, Medford, Redmond/Bend, and San Diego, guess what AS announced a couple weeks ago.....LAX to Eugene, Fresno, Medford, and Redmond/Bend.....

Are these cuts temporary COVID related cuts or are they gone for good?

SAN is somewhat surprising to me. I always saw LAX-SAN as high-frequency and high-yielding connecting traffic.


These appear to be permanent cuts. They're no longer bookable into next year.

Of course, I wouldn't be too surprised to see them quickly added back if travel picks up again, unless AA is truly ceding routes to AS in the long-term.

I've also noticed that IAD comes back in late September but then disappears again next Spring, which I found bizarre. Perhaps AA hasn't loaded it yet into the system.
RJ85, F70, E135, E140, E145, E70, E75, E90, CR2, CR7, CR9, 717, 732, 733, 734, 735, 73G, 738, 739, 744ER, 752, 753, 762, 772, 77E, 77W, 789, 319, 320, 321, 332, 333, 343, 359, 388
 
onwFan
Posts: 440
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Mon Jul 27, 2020 4:23 pm

USAirALB wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
AS & AA partnership coming into play:

AA cut Los Angeles to Eugene, Fresno, Louisville, Medford, Redmond/Bend, and San Diego, guess what AS announced a couple weeks ago.....LAX to Eugene, Fresno, Medford, and Redmond/Bend.....

Are these cuts temporary COVID related cuts or are they gone for good?

SAN is somewhat surprising to me. I always saw LAX-SAN as high-frequency and high-yielding connecting traffic.

AA does not need LAX-SAN for connecting traffic anymore. AS flies numerous non-stops to the most relevant West Coast cities, including recently announced routes. OW fliers are obviously going to choose the non stop options. But I wouldn’t be surprised to see AS jump on LAX-SAN for an O/D at lower frequency.
 
masseybrown
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Mon Jul 27, 2020 4:53 pm

cathay747 wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
Ishrion wrote:

Wouldn't that count as coordination? Or is just coincidental in this case?


I'm sure it's just a coincidence ;)


Of course it is :devil: But as I see it, as long as they don't announce these things simultaneously/jointly, good luck trying to prove "collusion", AS can simply say (perhaps truthfully) that they're taking advantage of another airline exiting various markets that couldn't support more than one airline..."if AA doesn't want them, we'll take 'em".


It's called "collusion by press release"; one company signals another its intentions, giving the other company time to react. If the second company doesn't react, the first company can cancel the action saying "We've reconsidered." No direct communication.
 
tphuang
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Mon Jul 27, 2020 5:29 pm

onwFan wrote:
USAirALB wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
AS & AA partnership coming into play:

AA cut Los Angeles to Eugene, Fresno, Louisville, Medford, Redmond/Bend, and San Diego, guess what AS announced a couple weeks ago.....LAX to Eugene, Fresno, Medford, and Redmond/Bend.....

Are these cuts temporary COVID related cuts or are they gone for good?

SAN is somewhat surprising to me. I always saw LAX-SAN as high-frequency and high-yielding connecting traffic.

AA does not need LAX-SAN for connecting traffic anymore. AS flies numerous non-stops to the most relevant West Coast cities, including recently announced routes. OW fliers are obviously going to choose the non stop options. But I wouldn’t be surprised to see AS jump on LAX-SAN for an O/D at lower frequency.

What could the LAX-SAN O&D possibly be? Seems like connecting stuff will be SAN-SEA.
 
MrPeanut
Posts: 157
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Mon Jul 27, 2020 6:06 pm

tphuang wrote:
onwFan wrote:
USAirALB wrote:
Are these cuts temporary COVID related cuts or are they gone for good?

SAN is somewhat surprising to me. I always saw LAX-SAN as high-frequency and high-yielding connecting traffic.

AA does not need LAX-SAN for connecting traffic anymore. AS flies numerous non-stops to the most relevant West Coast cities, including recently announced routes. OW fliers are obviously going to choose the non stop options. But I wouldn’t be surprised to see AS jump on LAX-SAN for an O/D at lower frequency.

What could the LAX-SAN O&D possibly be? Seems like connecting stuff will be SAN-SEA.


SAN-PHX
 
mentaisupa
Posts: 15
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Mon Jul 27, 2020 6:43 pm

I hope either AA or AS will serve LAX-SAN in the future, as it does provide much easier access to all the int'l OW flights in LAX.
 
nyc77k
Posts: 4
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Mon Jul 27, 2020 7:40 pm

Feels like LAX-SAN has been a continuous AA route for at least 55 years; Does anyone have a date when the route was started and if there have been any pervious gaps in service?
 
miaami
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Mon Jul 27, 2020 8:44 pm

nyc77k wrote:
Feels like LAX-SAN has been a continuous AA route for at least 55 years; Does anyone have a date when the route was started and if there have been any pervious gaps in service?
I think at one time LAX-SAN had the most nonstops in the AA system,

Here's a timetable from 2001

http://www.departedflights.com/AA070201p86.html
 
MrPeanut
Posts: 157
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Mon Jul 27, 2020 9:32 pm

nyc77k wrote:
Feels like LAX-SAN has been a continuous AA route for at least 55 years; Does anyone have a date when the route was started and if there have been any pervious gaps in service?


This is only the beginning. There are some other weak performers out of LAX that I would fully expect to be dropped as well, including another notable route that has been around for a long time.
 
nyc77k
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Mon Jul 27, 2020 10:00 pm

Earliest reference I can find for SAN-LAX on AA is 1959 (DC-6), so 61 years of service. I imagine it would have seen most types of equipment over the years before becoming all Eagle. I recall AA #75 (IAD-LAX-SAN) for years was on a DC-10.
 
jplatts
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Mon Jul 27, 2020 10:58 pm

Does it make sense for AA to keep the transcontinental A321s in a 102-seat 3-class config, or should AA reconfigure the transcontinental A321s to a 190-seat standard domestic config or a 158-seat config with the first class cabin being in the current transcontinental business class configuration?
 
MAH4546
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Mon Jul 27, 2020 10:58 pm

LAX-SAN is an odd one. I would not be shocked to see it return. SAN is an important OW feeder route anyway you slice it, obviously though the market for it isn't there right now with Hawaii closed, Australia closed and Asia near closed. The local market is obviously non-existent.
Last edited by MAH4546 on Mon Jul 27, 2020 11:01 pm, edited 1 time in total.
a.
 
Nicknuzzii
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Mon Jul 27, 2020 10:59 pm

jplatts wrote:
Does it make sense for AA to keep the transcontinental A321s in a 102-seat 3-class config, or should AA reconfigure the transcontinental A321s to a 190-seat standard domestic config or a 158-seat config with the first class cabin being in the current transcontinental business class configuration?


Why?
 
jplatts
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Mon Jul 27, 2020 11:05 pm

Nicknuzzii wrote:
Why?


I was wondering if it is still viable for AA to keep its transcontinental A321's in a 102-seat 3-class 10F/20B/36B/36M+/36M configuration, or if it is better for AA reconfigure the transcontinental A321's with more seats.
 
Cointrin330
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Mon Jul 27, 2020 11:06 pm

jplatts wrote:
Does it make sense for AA to keep the transcontinental A321s in a 102-seat 3-class config, or should AA reconfigure the transcontinental A321s to a 190-seat standard domestic config or a 158-seat config with the first class cabin being in the current transcontinental business class configuration?


Probably not. The lower density configuration, with a higher proportion of premium seats, likely gives AA a higher yield. A higher density, particularly at a time of depressed travel levels, will just dilute yields in a crowded, competitive field, relegating AA to just another player in a busy market. AA's competitive edge with the A321T is the lower density and many corporate contracts prefer the service because of the First Class cabin, particularly in the media/entertainment, tech, banking sectors once travel recovers.
 
MIflyer12
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Mon Jul 27, 2020 11:07 pm

jplatts wrote:
Does it make sense for AA to keep the transcontinental A321s in a 102-seat 3-class config, or should AA reconfigure the transcontinental A321s to a 190-seat standard domestic config or a 158-seat config with the first class cabin being in the current transcontinental business class configuration?


Only AA knows their fare premiums and seating demand by cabin. IMHO there aren't that many 3-class 321s to put this high up the list of AA's priorities.
 
onwFan
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Mon Jul 27, 2020 11:34 pm

MAH4546 wrote:
LAX-SAN is an odd one. I would not be shocked to see it return. SAN is an important OW feeder route anyway you slice it, obviously though the market for it isn't there right now with Hawaii closed, Australia closed and Asia near closed. The local market is obviously non-existent.

SAN already has non-stops on OW to Asia (JL) and Europe (BA). With AS entering the picture, all four airports in Hawaii will be covered non-stop from SAN, on top of numerous destinations throughout the west coast and Mexico. UA/DL do not have that advantage, and will need to rely significantly on connections for SAN traffic. The only market that will miss a connection is Australia, which can connect via SFO on AS as well. But I am certain that either AS or AA will be back on LAX-SAN in the near future.
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Tue Jul 28, 2020 12:10 am

I'm assuming CMH/IAD are getting suspended or cut, neither is on the schedule after March. Obviously that is pretty far out, but if they were at least *tentatively* planning to fly it, I don't see why they would pull it from the schedule.

Cointrin330 wrote:
jplatts wrote:
Does it make sense for AA to keep the transcontinental A321s in a 102-seat 3-class config, or should AA reconfigure the transcontinental A321s to a 190-seat standard domestic config or a 158-seat config with the first class cabin being in the current transcontinental business class configuration?


Probably not. The lower density configuration, with a higher proportion of premium seats, likely gives AA a higher yield. A higher density, particularly at a time of depressed travel levels, will just dilute yields in a crowded, competitive field, relegating AA to just another player in a busy market. AA's competitive edge with the A321T is the lower density and many corporate contracts prefer the service because of the First Class cabin, particularly in the media/entertainment, tech, banking sectors once travel recovers.


Yeah, AA would be stupid to get rid of that product.

No idea on the P&L of those routes though....
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LAXintl
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Tue Jul 28, 2020 12:52 am

I can't see dropping SAN-LAX permanently. Its always been a big connection market.

AA still needs to work out its LAX/West Coast feed situation which has been in flux since Compass shutdown.

onwFan wrote:
SAN already has non-stops on OW to Asia (JL) and Europe (BA).


:old: They had service.

SAN has been suspended by both BA and JAL.

Who knows if/when they are resumed.
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