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MIflyer12
Posts: 10442
Joined: Mon Feb 18, 2013 11:58 pm

Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Sat Nov 14, 2020 2:20 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
tphuang wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:

UA at SFO, AA at DCA, DL at LGA, the list goes on, there are plenty of hubs that have been shrunk to fractions of their previous size. It doesn't really say anything about their long-term priorities or their long-term size at those airports, as each airline is fully committed to a large presence at those hubs....

TL;DR, Ex: the fact that AA is not operating STL-DCA right now, says nothing about the long-term future of that route....

WN had to operate more hub/spoke out of necessity, when demand comes back there is no reason to believe p2p would not return. (In fact, virtually every airline became more hub/spoke)


You obviously also have to factor in the overall demand in that airport. No one is likely to expand at SFO in near to medium term. Do I think AA at DCA and DL at LGA might have problems in medium term? Sure I do. If slot waivers go away and business demand does not come back, large slot holders will have big decision on hand. We will see what they chose to hold on to.

I think WN is becomimg more of a hub/spoke airline. That doesn't mean it won't operate P2P. To me, they are building up several large hubs: DEN, HOU, DAL, MDW, BWI, PHX and a few smaller ones like STL/BNA/OAK/ATL. I think reducing transcon flight in favor of connecting through middle of the country is not a short term move.

LAX has clearly climbed the ladder in important to AS in the past few months. That should be obvious.

Things are changing.


AA is not giving up DCA slots, so that's not even a discussion


Nor will DL be giving up LGA slots. DL may not chase business travelers to/from secondary destinations with frequency so hard but they will keep flying to retain slots. (They can pound lower-CASM planes to leisure destinations at the cost of industry yields across of all NYC if needed.) DL's LGA strategy was a decade and $ 4+ Billion in the making - more than JetBlue's entire market capitalization today. LGA will not be sacrificed.
 
Nicknuzzii
Posts: 2001
Joined: Sat Sep 15, 2018 5:57 pm

Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Sat Nov 14, 2020 2:22 pm

Did AA just add PHL-CZM or is this a returning route?
 
aerace
Posts: 181
Joined: Thu Oct 04, 2018 12:08 pm

Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Sat Nov 14, 2020 2:26 pm

Nicknuzzii wrote:
Did AA just add PHL-CZM or is this a returning route?


You beat me to it. I just saw PHL Airport tweet it but there was no announcement. This would be a new route for PHL.
 
MrPeanut
Posts: 272
Joined: Fri Nov 23, 2018 8:36 pm

Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Sat Nov 14, 2020 2:37 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
AA is not giving up DCA slots, so that's not even a discussion

Quite literally everything relating to WN & AS you mentioned, was happening pre-covid....


AA may not give up slots, but the question is will the airport remove slot requirements due to suppressed demand, thus opening the door for other carriers to take away share.
 
Ishrion
Posts: 3637
Joined: Mon Feb 04, 2019 6:17 am

Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Sat Nov 14, 2020 2:48 pm

aerace wrote:
Nicknuzzii wrote:
Did AA just add PHL-CZM or is this a returning route?


You beat me to it. I just saw PHL Airport tweet it but there was no announcement. This would be a new route for PHL.


Nice add. I don’t think it’s bookable yet? Guess we’ll have to wait until tomorrow.
 
usflyer msp
Posts: 4389
Joined: Tue May 23, 2000 11:50 am

Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Sat Nov 14, 2020 2:49 pm

MrPeanut wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
AA is not giving up DCA slots, so that's not even a discussion

Quite literally everything relating to WN & AS you mentioned, was happening pre-covid....


AA may not give up slots, but the question is will the airport remove slot requirements due to suppressed demand, thus opening the door for other carriers to take away share.


DCA/LGA/JFK slots are imposed by the federal government, the airport can't just decide to do away with them. AA will not be giving up anything at DCA. This idea that AA or any other carrier is going to give up billions of dollars worth of assets for no return is out there just because of COVID. They will fly loss-making routes if they have to.
Last edited by usflyer msp on Sat Nov 14, 2020 3:11 pm, edited 2 times in total.
 
usflyer msp
Posts: 4389
Joined: Tue May 23, 2000 11:50 am

Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Sat Nov 14, 2020 2:54 pm

.
 
User avatar
Midwestindy
Posts: 6515
Joined: Sun Mar 12, 2017 3:56 am

Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Sat Nov 14, 2020 3:37 pm

usflyer msp wrote:
MrPeanut wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
AA is not giving up DCA slots, so that's not even a discussion

Quite literally everything relating to WN & AS you mentioned, was happening pre-covid....


AA may not give up slots, but the question is will the airport remove slot requirements due to suppressed demand, thus opening the door for other carriers to take away share.


DCA/LGA/JFK slots are imposed by the federal government, the airport can't just decide to do away with them. AA will not be giving up anything at DCA. This idea that AA or any other carrier is going to give up billions of dollars worth of assets for no return is out there just because of COVID. They will fly loss-making routes if they have to.


MIflyer12 wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
tphuang wrote:

You obviously also have to factor in the overall demand in that airport. No one is likely to expand at SFO in near to medium term. Do I think AA at DCA and DL at LGA might have problems in medium term? Sure I do. If slot waivers go away and business demand does not come back, large slot holders will have big decision on hand. We will see what they chose to hold on to.

I think WN is becomimg more of a hub/spoke airline. That doesn't mean it won't operate P2P. To me, they are building up several large hubs: DEN, HOU, DAL, MDW, BWI, PHX and a few smaller ones like STL/BNA/OAK/ATL. I think reducing transcon flight in favor of connecting through middle of the country is not a short term move.

LAX has clearly climbed the ladder in important to AS in the past few months. That should be obvious.

Things are changing.


AA is not giving up DCA slots, so that's not even a discussion


Nor will DL be giving up LGA slots. DL may not chase business travelers to/from secondary destinations with frequency so hard but they will keep flying to retain slots. (They can pound lower-CASM planes to leisure destinations at the cost of industry yields across of all NYC if needed.) DL's LGA strategy was a decade and $ 4+ Billion in the making - more than JetBlue's entire market capitalization today. LGA will not be sacrificed.


Yep, not even sure its even really worth discussion, slots are one of the most valuable assets airlines have. People have already forgotten March & April, when all the Euro carriers were blowing millions a day flying around empty widebodies to LHR, just to hold onto slots.....

You give them up and you likely won't get them back for decades; Management, investors, network planning teams, e.t.c for all airlines understand this...
 
Brickell305
Posts: 1538
Joined: Sat Jun 24, 2017 2:07 pm

Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Sat Nov 14, 2020 3:50 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
usflyer msp wrote:
MrPeanut wrote:

AA may not give up slots, but the question is will the airport remove slot requirements due to suppressed demand, thus opening the door for other carriers to take away share.


DCA/LGA/JFK slots are imposed by the federal government, the airport can't just decide to do away with them. AA will not be giving up anything at DCA. This idea that AA or any other carrier is going to give up billions of dollars worth of assets for no return is out there just because of COVID. They will fly loss-making routes if they have to.


MIflyer12 wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:

AA is not giving up DCA slots, so that's not even a discussion


Nor will DL be giving up LGA slots. DL may not chase business travelers to/from secondary destinations with frequency so hard but they will keep flying to retain slots. (They can pound lower-CASM planes to leisure destinations at the cost of industry yields across of all NYC if needed.) DL's LGA strategy was a decade and $ 4+ Billion in the making - more than JetBlue's entire market capitalization today. LGA will not be sacrificed.


Yep, not even sure its even really worth discussion, slots are one of the most valuable assets airlines have. People have already forgotten March & April, when all the Euro carriers were blowing millions a day flying around empty widebodies to LHR, just to hold onto slots.....

You give them up and you likely won't get them back for decades; Management, investors, network planning teams, e.t.c for all airlines understand this...

I also find it highly unlikely that slot waivers would go away any time soon. The government has a vested interest in keeping airlines in business. There is no way they force them to use slots at this time, especially in a time when they haven't gotten an extension of the CARES Act.
 
tphuang
Posts: 6864
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Sat Nov 14, 2020 4:49 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
tphuang wrote:

You obviously also have to factor in the overall demand in that airport. No one is likely to expand at SFO in near to medium term. Do I think AA at DCA and DL at LGA might have problems in medium term? Sure I do. If slot waivers go away and business demand does not come back, large slot holders will have big decision on hand. We will see what they chose to hold on to.

I think WN is becomimg more of a hub/spoke airline. That doesn't mean it won't operate P2P. To me, they are building up several large hubs: DEN, HOU, DAL, MDW, BWI, PHX and a few smaller ones like STL/BNA/OAK/ATL. I think reducing transcon flight in favor of connecting through middle of the country is not a short term move.

LAX has clearly climbed the ladder in important to AS in the past few months. That should be obvious.

Things are changing.

tphuang wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
tphuang wrote:

I think what airlines are operating and prioritizing right now is as much of an indication of what they will likely operate post pandemic as what they were operating pre-pandemic. I expect to see some pretty dramatic network changes post pandemic vs pre-pandemic. For example, all the shuttle stuff in northeast have barely any frequencies now. Even when corporate traffic returns in a meaningful way, I think the market has fundamentally changed. I think we are likely to see permanent strategy changes.

Just some recent examples:
- WN shifting more to hub/spoke model
- JetBlue shifting focus away from Boston to NYC



UA at SFO, AA at DCA, DL at LGA, the list goes on, there are plenty of hubs that have been shrunk to fractions of their previous size. It doesn't really say anything about their long-term priorities or their long-term size at those airports, as each airline is fully committed to a large presence at those hubs....

TL;DR, Ex: the fact that AA is not operating STL-DCA right now, says nothing about the long-term future of that route....

WN had to operate more hub/spoke out of necessity, when demand comes back there is no reason to believe p2p would not return. (In fact, virtually every airline became more hub/spoke)


You obviously also have to factor in the overall demand in that airport. No one is likely to expand at SFO in near to medium term. Do I think AA at DCA and DL at LGA might have problems in medium term? Sure I do. If slot waivers go away and business demand does not come back, large slot holders will have big decision on hand. We will see what they chose to hold on to.

I think WN is becomimg more of a hub/spoke airline. That doesn't mean it won't operate P2P. To me, they are building up several large hubs: DEN, HOU, DAL, MDW, BWI, PHX and a few smaller ones like STL/BNA/OAK/ATL. I think reducing transcon flight in favor of connecting through middle of the country is not a short term move.

LAX has clearly climbed the ladder in important to AS in the past few months. That should be obvious.

Things are changing.


AA is not giving up DCA slots, so that's not even a discussion

Quite literally everything relating to WN & AS you mentioned, was happening pre-covid....


Have it your way. Things are changing. Airlines have been public about it. I guess WN adding 10 new airports and cutting most of their transcon isn't enough changes? How many new airport did they add and how many transcon routes did they cut in the year before March. How many LAX routes has AS announced since March and how many during the last year before then? B6 has clearly been making many changes.

MIflyer12 wrote:
Nor will DL be giving up LGA slots. DL may not chase business travelers to/from secondary destinations with frequency so hard but they will keep flying to retain slots. (They can pound lower-CASM planes to leisure destinations at the cost of industry yields across of all NYC if needed.) DL's LGA strategy was a decade and $ 4+ Billion in the making - more than JetBlue's entire market capitalization today. LGA will not be sacrificed.


You are assuming that LGA slots will still be as valuable as they were pre-COVID. That remains to be seen. LGA right now has the least demand out of the 3 major NYC area airports. I'd be surprised if LGA is not the last airport to get back to pre-COVID level of demand. The entire NYC aviation landscape is changing. By the time corporate demand comes back, EWR will become more convenient than LGA for a lot of people. DL can feel free to keep flying half full planes out of LGA for the next 3 or 4 years to keep their slots. But even they have to deal with the reality that demand from LGA to short haul business market might never come back to pre-pandemic level. AA on the hand is having real trouble financially and DC demand is down almost as much as NYC demand. It would be harder for them to flying half full planes around.
 
MrPeanut
Posts: 272
Joined: Fri Nov 23, 2018 8:36 pm

Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 20

Sat Nov 14, 2020 6:16 pm

usflyer msp wrote:
MrPeanut wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
AA is not giving up DCA slots, so that's not even a discussion

Quite literally everything relating to WN & AS you mentioned, was happening pre-covid....


AA may not give up slots, but the question is will the airport remove slot requirements due to suppressed demand, thus opening the door for other carriers to take away share.


DCA/LGA/JFK slots are imposed by the federal government, the airport can't just decide to do away with them. AA will not be giving up anything at DCA. This idea that AA or any other carrier is going to give up billions of dollars worth of assets for no return is out there just because of COVID. They will fly loss-making routes if they have to.


Don’t be so certain. EWR’s restrictions changed as the situation at that airport changed. Demand is not forecasted to be back to pre-covid levels for many years. Therefore, unless the slot exemptions are pushed out for years to come, it will inevitably open up opportunities for other carriers. Also, AA cannot fly too many perpetually money losing routes from DCA. They cannot afford to do so with all the debt they’ve taken on from this crisis.

Once covid is over, airlines aren’t going back to where they were pre-covid. That is not going to happen. Some airlines are coming out of this significantly weaker than others. This event had structurally changed the commercial aviation environment and you will see major shifts, just like other major events such as 2001 and 2008.
 
Seat1D
Posts: 71
Joined: Sun Oct 18, 2020 8:55 pm

Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Sat Nov 14, 2020 6:32 pm

tphuang wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
tphuang wrote:

You obviously also have to factor in the overall demand in that airport. No one is likely to expand at SFO in near to medium term. Do I think AA at DCA and DL at LGA might have problems in medium term? Sure I do. If slot waivers go away and business demand does not come back, large slot holders will have big decision on hand. We will see what they chose to hold on to.

I think WN is becomimg more of a hub/spoke airline. That doesn't mean it won't operate P2P. To me, they are building up several large hubs: DEN, HOU, DAL, MDW, BWI, PHX and a few smaller ones like STL/BNA/OAK/ATL. I think reducing transcon flight in favor of connecting through middle of the country is not a short term move.

LAX has clearly climbed the ladder in important to AS in the past few months. That should be obvious.

Things are changing.

tphuang wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
tphuang wrote:

I think what airlines are operating and prioritizing right now is as much of an indication of what they will likely operate post pandemic as what they were operating pre-pandemic. I expect to see some pretty dramatic network changes post pandemic vs pre-pandemic. For example, all the shuttle stuff in northeast have barely any frequencies now. Even when corporate traffic returns in a meaningful way, I think the market has fundamentally changed. I think we are likely to see permanent strategy changes.

Just some recent examples:
- WN shifting more to hub/spoke model
- JetBlue shifting focus away from Boston to NYC



UA at SFO, AA at DCA, DL at LGA, the list goes on, there are plenty of hubs that have been shrunk to fractions of their previous size. It doesn't really say anything about their long-term priorities or their long-term size at those airports, as each airline is fully committed to a large presence at those hubs....

TL;DR, Ex: the fact that AA is not operating STL-DCA right now, says nothing about the long-term future of that route....

WN had to operate more hub/spoke out of necessity, when demand comes back there is no reason to believe p2p would not return. (In fact, virtually every airline became more hub/spoke)


You obviously also have to factor in the overall demand in that airport. No one is likely to expand at SFO in near to medium term. Do I think AA at DCA and DL at LGA might have problems in medium term? Sure I do. If slot waivers go away and business demand does not come back, large slot holders will have big decision on hand. We will see what they chose to hold on to.

I think WN is becomimg more of a hub/spoke airline. That doesn't mean it won't operate P2P. To me, they are building up several large hubs: DEN, HOU, DAL, MDW, BWI, PHX and a few smaller ones like STL/BNA/OAK/ATL. I think reducing transcon flight in favor of connecting through middle of the country is not a short term move.

LAX has clearly climbed the ladder in important to AS in the past few months. That should be obvious.

Things are changing.


AA is not giving up DCA slots, so that's not even a discussion

Quite literally everything relating to WN & AS you mentioned, was happening pre-covid....


Have it your way. Things are changing. Airlines have been public about it. I guess WN adding 10 new airports and cutting most of their transcon isn't enough changes? How many new airport did they add and how many transcon routes did they cut in the year before March. How many LAX routes has AS announced since March and how many during the last year before then? B6 has clearly been making many changes.

MIflyer12 wrote:
Nor will DL be giving up LGA slots. DL may not chase business travelers to/from secondary destinations with frequency so hard but they will keep flying to retain slots. (They can pound lower-CASM planes to leisure destinations at the cost of industry yields across of all NYC if needed.) DL's LGA strategy was a decade and $ 4+ Billion in the making - more than JetBlue's entire market capitalization today. LGA will not be sacrificed.


You are assuming that LGA slots will still be as valuable as they were pre-COVID. That remains to be seen. LGA right now has the least demand out of the 3 major NYC area airports. I'd be surprised if LGA is not the last airport to get back to pre-COVID level of demand. The entire NYC aviation landscape is changing. By the time corporate demand comes back, EWR will become more convenient than LGA for a lot of people. DL can feel free to keep flying half full planes out of LGA for the next 3 or 4 years to keep their slots. But even they have to deal with the reality that demand from LGA to short haul business market might never come back to pre-pandemic level. AA on the hand is having real trouble financially and DC demand is down almost as much as NYC demand. It would be harder for them to flying half full planes around.



I don't know if it's just me but I've noticed that if something is not beneficial to JetBlue then you slam it as something being ridiculous and impossible. I wouldn't worry too much about business traffic rebounding to the New York City area Airport. It might take a little time but it will happen
 
Seat1D
Posts: 71
Joined: Sun Oct 18, 2020 8:55 pm

Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Sat Nov 14, 2020 6:34 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
tphuang wrote:

You obviously also have to factor in the overall demand in that airport. No one is likely to expand at SFO in near to medium term. Do I think AA at DCA and DL at LGA might have problems in medium term? Sure I do. If slot waivers go away and business demand does not come back, large slot holders will have big decision on hand. We will see what they chose to hold on to.

I think WN is becomimg more of a hub/spoke airline. That doesn't mean it won't operate P2P. To me, they are building up several large hubs: DEN, HOU, DAL, MDW, BWI, PHX and a few smaller ones like STL/BNA/OAK/ATL. I think reducing transcon flight in favor of connecting through middle of the country is not a short term move.

LAX has clearly climbed the ladder in important to AS in the past few months. That should be obvious.

Things are changing.


AA is not giving up DCA slots, so that's not even a discussion


Nor will DL be giving up LGA slots. DL may not chase business travelers to/from secondary destinations with frequency so hard but they will keep flying to retain slots. (They can pound lower-CASM planes to leisure destinations at the cost of industry yields across of all NYC if needed.) DL's LGA strategy was a decade and $ 4+ Billion in the making - more than JetBlue's entire market capitalization today. LGA will not be sacrificed.


Very interesting. Puts Jetblues relatively small size into perspective. Thanks for posting that. You wouldn't think so based on comments by other users.
 
tphuang
Posts: 6864
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Sat Nov 14, 2020 10:43 pm

Seat1D wrote:

I don't know if it's just me but I've noticed that if something is not beneficial to JetBlue then you slam it as something being ridiculous and impossible. I wouldn't worry too much about business traffic rebounding to the New York City area Airport. It might take a little time but it will happen


I do have a lot of opinions, so maybe you have zoomed in on the negative ones. But on the issue of demand out of LGA, you don't have to take my words
https://www.flightglobal.com/networks/d ... 75.article
“New York may [not] come back for more years than we’d like.”
At this point, who really knows when LGA business demand is coming back to anything resembling 2019 levels? Even the leisure ones are under performing vs EWR and JFK.
 
usflyer msp
Posts: 4389
Joined: Tue May 23, 2000 11:50 am

Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 20

Sat Nov 14, 2020 11:03 pm

MrPeanut wrote:
usflyer msp wrote:
MrPeanut wrote:

AA may not give up slots, but the question is will the airport remove slot requirements due to suppressed demand, thus opening the door for other carriers to take away share.


DCA/LGA/JFK slots are imposed by the federal government, the airport can't just decide to do away with them. AA will not be giving up anything at DCA. This idea that AA or any other carrier is going to give up billions of dollars worth of assets for no return is out there just because of COVID. They will fly loss-making routes if they have to.


Don’t be so certain. EWR’s restrictions changed as the situation at that airport changed. Demand is not forecasted to be back to pre-covid levels for many years. Therefore, unless the slot exemptions are pushed out for years to come, it will inevitably open up opportunities for other carriers. Also, AA cannot fly too many perpetually money losing routes from DCA. They cannot afford to do so with all the debt they’ve taken on from this crisis.

Once covid is over, airlines aren’t going back to where they were pre-covid. That is not going to happen. Some airlines are coming out of this significantly weaker than others. This event had structurally changed the commercial aviation environment and you will see major shifts, just like other major events such as 2001 and 2008.


DCA is slot controlled primarily because it so close to sensitive areas like the White House and the Pentagon not because of traffic demands. The location is not changing.
 
AmericanAir88
Posts: 320
Joined: Wed May 27, 2020 8:59 pm

Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Sun Nov 15, 2020 2:49 am

Cointrin330 wrote:
AmericanAir88 wrote:
I wonder why AA will not fly routes like JFK-LAS? That route does very well. In every flight I have flown to vegas on all airlines during covid, they have all been packed.

JFK-LAS is always a solid flight to add.


AA dropped LAS, SAN, and SEA around the same time, in 2019, and it was then attributed to two things, the 737-MAX8 grounding, which required AA to shuffle 738s around the system, and all 3 routes were flown with a 738. Second, in July 2019, AA received permission from the DOT to suspend about 35-40 slots at JFK as the runway adjacent to T8 was undergoing repaving and other works, and had been closed. This is the runway known for the "canarsie" approach. The slot waivers were extended in early 2020 and as COVID19 took hold and New York effectively closed, AA reduced JFK from around 70-75 flights a day to around 15, which is where it has been more or less since. Right now it is all about saving money and reducing cash burn and preserving capital. NY had stringent rules for travelers entering the state, which were changed just 3 weeks ago. I suspect LAS will return as the industry recovers, and likely SAN will too. SEA is an open question. There is room for AA to operate it, but AS, as a oneworld partner, will likely be the one flying it and we can look to AS moving back to T8 eventually.


Great response. I really hope they add back to JFK. I really miss the days of their 70-75 flights/day. AA had so many great routes and a really nice terminal.

LAS is coming back very strong for travelers right now. The city is seeing numbers for tourism increase. I think JFK-LAS should be added back maybe only like 3x a week as a start. LAS has a pretty clear passenger number schedule: Busy on Thu, Fri, And Sun.
 
wenders825
Posts: 392
Joined: Thu Sep 29, 2016 7:29 pm

Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Sun Nov 15, 2020 3:42 am

aerace wrote:
Nicknuzzii wrote:
Did AA just add PHL-CZM or is this a returning route?


You beat me to it. I just saw PHL Airport tweet it but there was no announcement. This would be a new route for PHL.

PHX-TUL also announced by Tulsa airport. wonder what else is coming
 
User avatar
BA744PHX
Posts: 600
Joined: Mon Sep 24, 2007 3:42 am

Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Sun Nov 15, 2020 3:53 am

wenders825 wrote:
aerace wrote:
Nicknuzzii wrote:
Did AA just add PHL-CZM or is this a returning route?


You beat me to it. I just saw PHL Airport tweet it but there was no announcement. This would be a new route for PHL.

PHX-TUL also announced by Tulsa airport. wonder what else is coming


PHX-TUL was announced August 30th
https://www.routesonline.com/news/38/ai ... f-30aug20/
 
MrPeanut
Posts: 272
Joined: Fri Nov 23, 2018 8:36 pm

Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 20

Sun Nov 15, 2020 4:16 am

usflyer msp wrote:
MrPeanut wrote:
usflyer msp wrote:

DCA/LGA/JFK slots are imposed by the federal government, the airport can't just decide to do away with them. AA will not be giving up anything at DCA. This idea that AA or any other carrier is going to give up billions of dollars worth of assets for no return is out there just because of COVID. They will fly loss-making routes if they have to.


Don’t be so certain. EWR’s restrictions changed as the situation at that airport changed. Demand is not forecasted to be back to pre-covid levels for many years. Therefore, unless the slot exemptions are pushed out for years to come, it will inevitably open up opportunities for other carriers. Also, AA cannot fly too many perpetually money losing routes from DCA. They cannot afford to do so with all the debt they’ve taken on from this crisis.

Once covid is over, airlines aren’t going back to where they were pre-covid. That is not going to happen. Some airlines are coming out of this significantly weaker than others. This event had structurally changed the commercial aviation environment and you will see major shifts, just like other major events such as 2001 and 2008.


DCA is slot controlled primarily because it so close to sensitive areas like the White House and the Pentagon not because of traffic demands. The location is not changing.


That is not accurate at all. DCA is designated as a high density traffic airport and restricted to 60 operations per hour.

https://rgl.faa.gov/Regulatory_and_Guid ... enDocument
 
MrPeanut
Posts: 272
Joined: Fri Nov 23, 2018 8:36 pm

Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Sun Nov 15, 2020 4:40 am

wenders825 wrote:
aerace wrote:
Nicknuzzii wrote:
Did AA just add PHL-CZM or is this a returning route?


You beat me to it. I just saw PHL Airport tweet it but there was no announcement. This would be a new route for PHL.

PHX-TUL also announced by Tulsa airport. wonder what else is coming


I wouldn’t be surprised to see: BZN, JAC, XNA, SDF
 
Ishrion
Posts: 3637
Joined: Mon Feb 04, 2019 6:17 am

Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Sun Nov 15, 2020 6:07 am

aerace wrote:
Nicknuzzii wrote:
Did AA just add PHL-CZM or is this a returning route?


You beat me to it. I just saw PHL Airport tweet it but there was no announcement. This would be a new route for PHL.


Looks like flights are Saturday-only from February 13 to April 3 on the E-175.

That's a fairly long E-175 flight at 1,500 miles.
 
panamair
Posts: 4483
Joined: Fri Oct 12, 2001 2:24 am

Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Sun Nov 15, 2020 7:54 am

Looks like AA has dropped all LHR flights except for LHR-DFW in December (so ORD, JFK, MIA and CLT all suspended (so far) till around Jan 4 or 5).
 
Cointrin330
Posts: 2268
Joined: Sat Jul 16, 2016 12:23 pm

Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Sun Nov 15, 2020 12:22 pm

AmericanAir88 wrote:
Cointrin330 wrote:
AmericanAir88 wrote:
I wonder why AA will not fly routes like JFK-LAS? That route does very well. In every flight I have flown to vegas on all airlines during covid, they have all been packed.

JFK-LAS is always a solid flight to add.


AA dropped LAS, SAN, and SEA around the same time, in 2019, and it was then attributed to two things, the 737-MAX8 grounding, which required AA to shuffle 738s around the system, and all 3 routes were flown with a 738. Second, in July 2019, AA received permission from the DOT to suspend about 35-40 slots at JFK as the runway adjacent to T8 was undergoing repaving and other works, and had been closed. This is the runway known for the "canarsie" approach. The slot waivers were extended in early 2020 and as COVID19 took hold and New York effectively closed, AA reduced JFK from around 70-75 flights a day to around 15, which is where it has been more or less since. Right now it is all about saving money and reducing cash burn and preserving capital. NY had stringent rules for travelers entering the state, which were changed just 3 weeks ago. I suspect LAS will return as the industry recovers, and likely SAN will too. SEA is an open question. There is room for AA to operate it, but AS, as a oneworld partner, will likely be the one flying it and we can look to AS moving back to T8 eventually.


Great response. I really hope they add back to JFK. I really miss the days of their 70-75 flights/day. AA had so many great routes and a really nice terminal.

LAS is coming back very strong for travelers right now. The city is seeing numbers for tourism increase. I think JFK-LAS should be added back maybe only like 3x a week as a start. LAS has a pretty clear passenger number schedule: Busy on Thu, Fri, And Sun.


Agreed. American Airlines has arguably the best terminal facility at JFK. It is spacious, clean, and with further improvements that are part of the project to expand it to accommodate British Airways and Iberia, both of which are due to relocate there by 2022, including better food and retail options, T8 will sparkle even more. The Flagship Lounge, though closed now due to the pandemic, is spacious, well designed, a clear cut above many of the other lounges across the airport's ecosystem. It did have a tendency to get crowded between 4pm and 8pm as this was peak time for TATL and the GRU/EZE and GIG services. I think AA will add LAS back and fly it initially a few days a week, and then ramp back up to twice daily in about a year's time. As the business, convention, and leisure travel sectors hopefully come back, I see no reason why AA would not restore the service.
 
Cointrin330
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Sun Nov 15, 2020 12:23 pm

panamair wrote:
Looks like AA has dropped all LHR flights except for LHR-DFW in December (so ORD, JFK, MIA and CLT all suspended (so far) till around Jan 4 or 5).


UK is on lockdown, and COVID19 is rampaging across the US. There's no demand, except for cargo. None of this is surprising. Holiday travel is what sustains routes over the December/early January period. That's not happening this year. At all.
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Sun Nov 15, 2020 1:17 pm

tphuang wrote:
Have it your way. Things are changing. Airlines have been public about it. I guess WN adding 10 new airports and cutting most of their transcon isn't enough changes? How many new airport did they add and how many transcon routes did they cut in the year before March. How many LAX routes has AS announced since March and how many during the last year before then? B6 has clearly been making many changes.


You are contradicting yourself now, you are agreeing that all of those things were happening pre-COVID.... I rest my case
 
tphuang
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Sun Nov 15, 2020 2:20 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
tphuang wrote:
Have it your way. Things are changing. Airlines have been public about it. I guess WN adding 10 new airports and cutting most of their transcon isn't enough changes? How many new airport did they add and how many transcon routes did they cut in the year before March. How many LAX routes has AS announced since March and how many during the last year before then? B6 has clearly been making many changes.


You are contradicting yourself now, you are agreeing that all of those things were happening pre-COVID.... I rest my case


How am I contradicting myself?

How many routes did AS add to LAX from April 2019 to March 2020 and how many routes did they add from March 2020 until now? From best of my recollection, in the first period, they added maybe 1 or 2 west coast regional stuff. And in the second period, they've added a whole bunch both on mainline and regional. And that's directly related to AA cutting a bunch of routes. So clearly, their strategy changed post COVID.

Things are changing.
 
Seat1D
Posts: 71
Joined: Sun Oct 18, 2020 8:55 pm

Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Sun Nov 15, 2020 3:01 pm

tphuang wrote:
Seat1D wrote:

I don't know if it's just me but I've noticed that if something is not beneficial to JetBlue then you slam it as something being ridiculous and impossible. I wouldn't worry too much about business traffic rebounding to the New York City area Airport. It might take a little time but it will happen


I do have a lot of opinions, so maybe you have zoomed in on the negative ones. But on the issue of demand out of LGA, you don't have to take my words
https://www.flightglobal.com/networks/d ... 75.article
“New York may [not] come back for more years than we’d like.”
At this point, who really knows when LGA business demand is coming back to anything resembling 2019 levels? Even the leisure ones are under performing vs EWR and JFK.


I agree with you re: lga traffic. Just about everything is going to take time....or maybe not. Plus it depends on what your definition is on a lot of time.

This is like one big game of musical chairs and nobody knows who's going to be left standing when the music Stops.
 
SkyLife
Posts: 39
Joined: Tue Mar 31, 2020 1:45 pm

Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 20

Sun Nov 15, 2020 6:14 pm

MrPeanut wrote:
usflyer msp wrote:
MrPeanut wrote:

Don’t be so certain. EWR’s restrictions changed as the situation at that airport changed. Demand is not forecasted to be back to pre-covid levels for many years. Therefore, unless the slot exemptions are pushed out for years to come, it will inevitably open up opportunities for other carriers. Also, AA cannot fly too many perpetually money losing routes from DCA. They cannot afford to do so with all the debt they’ve taken on from this crisis.

Once covid is over, airlines aren’t going back to where they were pre-covid. That is not going to happen. Some airlines are coming out of this significantly weaker than others. This event had structurally changed the commercial aviation environment and you will see major shifts, just like other major events such as 2001 and 2008.


DCA is slot controlled primarily because it so close to sensitive areas like the White House and the Pentagon not because of traffic demands. The location is not changing.


That is not accurate at all. DCA is designated as a high density traffic airport and restricted to 60 operations per hour.

https://rgl.faa.gov/Regulatory_and_Guid ... enDocument


Couldn’t agree more. DCA at peak hours is as busy as anywhere, especially considering the lack of ramp/taxiway space. Add in deicing for the 35X gates and it really gets fun! They do very well with what they have but they keep traffic very tight landing RWY 1/19, even circling 33 if the traffic can accept it. I don’t see how DCA could handle much more considering its footprint.
 
747fan
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Sun Nov 15, 2020 8:25 pm

Cointrin330 wrote:
panamair wrote:
Looks like AA has dropped all LHR flights except for LHR-DFW in December (so ORD, JFK, MIA and CLT all suspended (so far) till around Jan 4 or 5).


UK is on lockdown, and COVID19 is rampaging across the US. There's no demand, except for cargo. None of this is surprising. Holiday travel is what sustains routes over the December/early January period. That's not happening this year. At all.

Not surprised. I flew ORD-LHR on the 788 and then LHR-DFW on the 77W last month and both flights only had around 40-50 passengers on them. Was surreal flying out of a near-deserted gate area at ORD and then LHR for Transatlantic flights like that.
However I would guess these will still run as cargo-only flights given how much cargo the LHR flights have been carrying. JFK/DFW-LHR have had second flights running in addition to the passenger flights that are cargo-only. I believe it was a JFK-LHR (or reverse) flight on a 77W a few months ago that set the cargo payload record for AA with over 100K lb. of freight on it.
 
MAH4546
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Sun Nov 15, 2020 8:33 pm

Cointrin330 wrote:
panamair wrote:
Looks like AA has dropped all LHR flights except for LHR-DFW in December (so ORD, JFK, MIA and CLT all suspended (so far) till around Jan 4 or 5).


UK is on lockdown, and COVID19 is rampaging across the US. There's no demand, except for cargo. None of this is surprising. Holiday travel is what sustains routes over the December/early January period. That's not happening this year. At all.


Indeed and even Virgin and BA are running skeleton networks. Virgin is just LAX/JFK/MIA/ATL. BA is down to LAX/JFK/MIA too as well as ORD/IAD/IAH/SEA. Neither of them are flying to Boston, Orlando or San Francisco which is just crazy to think of, but true.
 
dcajet
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Sun Nov 15, 2020 9:12 pm

MAH4546 wrote:

Indeed and even Virgin and BA are running skeleton networks. Virgin is just LAX/JFK/MIA/ATL. BA is down to LAX/JFK/MIA too as well as ORD/IAD/IAH/SEA. Neither of them are flying to Boston, Orlando or San Francisco which is just crazy to think of, but true.


BA is operating at SFO, VS is not.
 
FCOTSTW
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AA to Stop LHR to JFK / CLT / ORD in December

Mon Nov 16, 2020 12:43 am

Against all hopes for a revived demand for the holidays, AA will stop flying to LHR from JFK, CLT, and ORD, rerouting passengers on BA from MCO and JFK.Regular schedule will resume in January.

I am wondering whether DL and UA will follow this pattern.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/news/am ... d=msedgntp
 
BusBlitz
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Re: AA to Stop LHR to JFK / CLT / ORD in December

Mon Nov 16, 2020 12:52 am

That makes sense. DL might follow the pattern as they have Virgin Atlantic, but United only has Lufthansa from MUC and FRA. They want nonstop flights because people like those more.
 
LH658
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Re: AA to Stop LHR to JFK / CLT / ORD in December

Mon Nov 16, 2020 12:59 am

AA isn't doing well in general, I suspect the Delta and UA will still fly to LHR.
 
MAH4546
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Mon Nov 16, 2020 2:51 am

dcajet wrote:
MAH4546 wrote:

Indeed and even Virgin and BA are running skeleton networks. Virgin is just LAX/JFK/MIA/ATL. BA is down to LAX/JFK/MIA too as well as ORD/IAD/IAH/SEA. Neither of them are flying to Boston, Orlando or San Francisco which is just crazy to think of, but true.


BA is operating at SFO, VS is not.


No, BA suspended SFO last week.
 
MAH4546
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Re: AA to Stop LHR to JFK / CLT / ORD in December

Mon Nov 16, 2020 2:52 am

LH658 wrote:
AA isn't doing well in general, I suspect the Delta and UA will still fly to LHR.


AA is not suspending LHR, just certain routes. Just like UA and DL are doing the same.
 
Nicknuzzii
Posts: 2001
Joined: Sat Sep 15, 2018 5:57 pm

Re: AA to Stop LHR to JFK / CLT / ORD in December

Mon Nov 16, 2020 3:01 am

MAH4546 wrote:
LH658 wrote:
AA isn't doing well in general, I suspect the Delta and UA will still fly to LHR.


AA is not suspending LHR, just certain routes. Just like UA and DL are doing the same.


What routes is UA suspending?
 
MAH4546
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Re: AA to Stop LHR to JFK / CLT / ORD in December

Mon Nov 16, 2020 3:32 am

Nicknuzzii wrote:
MAH4546 wrote:
LH658 wrote:
AA isn't doing well in general, I suspect the Delta and UA will still fly to LHR.


AA is not suspending LHR, just certain routes. Just like UA and DL are doing the same.


What routes is UA suspending?


UA is not operating DEN nor LAX.

Also let’s not forget AA has JBA partners that it shares capacity with. BA continues to operate ORD/MIA/JFK/LAX daily while AA operates DFWLHR, whilst BA suspends that.

Same with DL/VS.
 
Nicknuzzii
Posts: 2001
Joined: Sat Sep 15, 2018 5:57 pm

Re: AA to Stop LHR to JFK / CLT / ORD in December

Mon Nov 16, 2020 3:33 am

[photoid][/photoid]
MAH4546 wrote:
Nicknuzzii wrote:
MAH4546 wrote:

AA is not suspending LHR, just certain routes. Just like UA and DL are doing the same.


What routes is UA suspending?


UA is not operating DEN nor LAX.

Also let’s not forget AA has JBA partners that it shares capacity with. BA continues to operate ORD/MIA/JFK/LAX daily while AA operates DFWLHR, whilst BA suspends that.

Same with DL/VS.


UA hasn’t been operating those flights since March, nor have they intended on reinstating them before this upcoming March.
 
dcajet
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Mon Nov 16, 2020 4:58 am

MAH4546 wrote:
dcajet wrote:
MAH4546 wrote:

Indeed and even Virgin and BA are running skeleton networks. Virgin is just LAX/JFK/MIA/ATL. BA is down to LAX/JFK/MIA too as well as ORD/IAD/IAH/SEA. Neither of them are flying to Boston, Orlando or San Francisco which is just crazy to think of, but true.


BA is operating at SFO, VS is not.


No, BA suspended SFO last week.


BA285/4 operated today at SFO. Saw it land earlier this afternoon. Maybe it is cargo only? Some of the pax destinations suspended for these weeks continue to see cargo services.

https://www.flightradar24.com/BAW284/260e29f8
 
MAH4546
Posts: 26701
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Mon Nov 16, 2020 5:47 am

dcajet wrote:
MAH4546 wrote:
dcajet wrote:

BA is operating at SFO, VS is not.


No, BA suspended SFO last week.


BA285/4 operated today at SFO. Saw it land earlier this afternoon. Maybe it is cargo only? Some of the pax destinations suspended for these weeks continue to see cargo services.

https://www.flightradar24.com/BAW284/260e29f8


It is cargo only. BA suspended SFO passenger flights on November 7th.

https://www.turningleftforless.com/news ... gibraltar/
 
kcrwflyer
Posts: 2618
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Mon Nov 16, 2020 3:00 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
jetmatt777 wrote:
USAirALB wrote:
Looking at their current schedule at LAX, they are serving all hub cities, plus SLC, DEN, Hawaii, SYD, Leisure Mexico, SFO, and LAS. Those are all safe.

ATL/AUS/BOS/IAH/BNA/MCO/STL/SEA are probably all safe for mainline as well.

IAD is a toss-up. IIRC, AA has (or had) the GSA contract for WAS-LAX but I don't know if that is solely for DCA. IAD-LAX has a superior schedule than DCA (late evening departure from IAD as well as a redeye from LAX inbound to Dulles). Yet every time I have taken it, the flight is sparsely packed, even in F. I've had friends that are Gold gotten an upgrade to F on the late evening IAD-LAX flight, something that would never happen on DCA-LAX. I know that they were supposed to up-guage the redeye/morning IAD-LAX flight this summer to a L-AA A321. My guess is they likely keep IAD-LAX due to the historic strength of AA in the WAS market and the need to maintain frequency on WAS-LAX. The SV Line opening next year should help somewhat.

ABQ/XNA/PDX/RNO/SMF/SJC/TUS are likely safe for Eagle as well.

I frankly don't see CMH/IND/MSY/OMA/BDL/OKC/TUL/SAF returning.


LAX-OKC has been a somewhat strong route for AA over the years (as far as small-med markets go). I believe they have been in that market for close to a decade, sometimes as many as 3x a day. It was also a mainline route for a brief period of time before COVID hit.


Yeah, I have the profitability data on some of the LAX routes, OMA/OKC/TUL/XNA/TUS performed well.

BDL-LAX was dropped pre-COVID

The really bad routes were pretty intuitive: LAX-IAH/SLC/MCO/DEN/SDF/e.t.c, mostly routes that were hyper-competitive or on a Hub-Hub route of a competitor


How do you have profitability for some LAX routes.. and not all LAX routes? Generally, those privy to said information either have it all, or nothing.
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Mon Nov 16, 2020 3:45 pm

kcrwflyer wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
jetmatt777 wrote:

LAX-OKC has been a somewhat strong route for AA over the years (as far as small-med markets go). I believe they have been in that market for close to a decade, sometimes as many as 3x a day. It was also a mainline route for a brief period of time before COVID hit.


Yeah, I have the profitability data on some of the LAX routes, OMA/OKC/TUL/XNA/TUS performed well.

BDL-LAX was dropped pre-COVID

The really bad routes were pretty intuitive: LAX-IAH/SLC/MCO/DEN/SDF/e.t.c, mostly routes that were hyper-competitive or on a Hub-Hub route of a competitor


How do you have profitability for some LAX routes.. and not all LAX routes? Generally, those privy to said information either have it all, or nothing.


Just domestic routes not int'l
 
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wxman11
Posts: 98
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AA using widebody from PHX-HNL

Tue Nov 17, 2020 5:49 am

Not sure if this topic was already mentioned however, just in case, American is currently using the B777 on the PHX to HNL route and in a news report I read, during 19Nov-27Mar21, the B789 was going to be used to replaced the A321. However, not sure if AA decided to keep using the B777 because it still shows their website still has the B777 for that route.

https://www.routesonline.com/news/38/airlineroute/292313/american-airlines-w20-phoenix-honolulu-aircraft-changes/
 
AmericanAir88
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Re: American Airlines at JFK

Wed Nov 18, 2020 4:14 am

Any updates? Really hope that when demand comes back, AA will add more to JFK. JFK-LAS/DFW/ORD need to come back. If AA were to add a brand new route, I would recommend JFK-MCO.

Any news on AA at JFK would be great.
 
Ishrion
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Mon Nov 23, 2020 7:08 pm

According to Crankyflier, New Haven, Newburgh/Stewart, and Williamsport have completely lost AA service.

https://crankyflier.com/2020/11/23/janu ... ew-routes/

Additionally, instead of BOS-EYW only operating from December 17 to January 4, it's now been extended as a Saturday-only flight until April 3

EYW will see more mainline with ORD-EYW going A319 for most of January.
 
SurfandSnow
Posts: 1683
Joined: Sun Feb 01, 2009 7:09 am

Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Mon Nov 23, 2020 7:53 pm

Ishrion wrote:
New Haven, Newburgh/Stewart, and Williamsport have completely lost AA service.


No surprise there. It typically cost a small fortune to fly in and out of those tiny airports with limited amenities, yet they are all easily drivable from much more competitive medium and large size airports with better fares, nonstop options, restaurants, schedules and shops. Then again, UA is adding (or in some cases, re-adding) service to small markets these days. They have flown to HVN before and IIRC UAX may have served SWF from IAD too. Perhaps UA would be interested in giving these places a shot?

Ishrion wrote:
Additionally, instead of BOS-EYW only operating from December 17 to January 4, it's now been extended as a Saturday-only flight until April 3

EYW will see more mainline with ORD-EYW going A319 for most of January.


EYW is booming. I believe it may have been the first airport in the country to be busier in 2020 than it was in 2019 before the pandemic. That little runway extension seems to have done wonders for the airport. I never would have thought an A319 could operate EYW-ORD with a viable payload.
 
wenders825
Posts: 392
Joined: Thu Sep 29, 2016 7:29 pm

Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Mon Nov 23, 2020 9:39 pm

DFW-LIM
LAX-MEX/BZE
CLT-GDL

all returning. PHL-CUN goes 788
 
Ishrion
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Mon Nov 23, 2020 10:02 pm

Forgot to mention, AA's December cargo/widebody schedule was released a few days ago: https://www.aacargo.com/downloads/Decem ... hedule.pdf

Notable additions include daily cargo-only 787-8 flights on DFW-LIM and daily cargo-only 787-8 flights from Chicago to Frankfurt, which wasn't a passenger route pre-COVID, similar to AA's cargo PHL-FRA/MXP.

In December AA will be placing a lot more widebodies on shorter passenger routes:

From MIA:
- 1x daily 777-200ER to Bogotá
- 1x daily 787-8 to Guayaquil
- 4x weekly 787-8 to Port-au-Prince
- 1x daily 787-8 to Lima
- 1x daily 787-8 to San Salvador
- 1x daily 787-8 to San Pedro Sula
- 2x daily 777-200ER to San Juan (on top of weekly 772 cargo flight)
 
usflyer msp
Posts: 4389
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Mon Nov 23, 2020 11:12 pm

On a down note, BOS/LGA - MIA see midweek E175's in January.

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