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smartplane
Posts: 1509
Joined: Fri Aug 03, 2018 9:23 pm

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, January 2020

Sun Jan 05, 2020 7:55 pm

From industry comment and reading between the lines, RTS will treat new builds, built but undelivered and delivered differently.

New builds
Will have to incorporate all software and hardware changes before customer delivery. The other reason production has stopped.

Already delivered
Will have to incorporate some software and hardware changes before RTS. Will be subject to additional AD's, with possible operating restrictions until all actioned.

Already built / not delivered
The controversial group. Boeing position was - treat the same as 'already delivered'. FAA / EASA position was - treat as new builds.
Compromise - Boeing stops making the group numerically any larger (ceases production). FAA / EASA agree to treat as 'already delivered'.

To make it happen asap, some interesting partnerships and joint ventures likely / possible, otherwise MRO capacity and supply of modified components will be factors limiting RTS. And perhaps novel temporary FAA funding too.
 
smartplane
Posts: 1509
Joined: Fri Aug 03, 2018 9:23 pm

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, January 2020

Sun Jan 05, 2020 8:10 pm

enzo011 wrote:
Article about some of the problems that Boeing is working on aside from MCAS. Seems they are looking at wiring that may cause a short and force the plane down if the pilots doesn't react quick enough. Then there is also lightning protection that was inadvertently removed to fit the engines on the aircraft. Those are some of issues also being looked at.

It’s Not Just Software. New Safety Risks Under Scrutiny on Boeing’s 737 Max.

Even as Boeing inches closer to getting the 737 Max back in the air, new problems with the plane are emerging that go beyond the software that played a role in two deadly crashes.

...

The company is looking at whether two bundles of critical wiring are too close together and could cause a short circuit. A short in that area could lead to a crash if pilots did not respond correctly, the people said. Boeing is still trying to determine whether that scenario could actually occur on a flight and, if so, whether it will need to separate the wire bundles in the roughly 800 Max jets that have already been built. The company says that the fix, if needed, is relatively simple.

...

Boeing also recently told the F.A.A. that it had discovered a manufacturing problem that left the plane’s engines vulnerable to a lightning strike.

While assembling the Max, workers at Boeing’s Renton factory had ground down the outer shell of a panel that sits atop the engine housing in an effort to ensure a better fit into the plane. In doing so, they inadvertently removed the coating that insulates the panel from a lightning strike, taking away a crucial protection for the fuel tank and fuel lines. The F.A.A. is developing a directive that will require the company to restore lightning protection to the engine panel and Boeing is already in the process of resolving the issue.


It does state in the article that there will be simulator flights for regulators from Europe this week coming up. So progress it seems but challenges could still demand attention form the company.

Any surprise RTS announcements seem so protracted? Discovered a manufacturing problem, or realised the latest batch of documents about to be handed to the FAA included this nugget?

Is EASA still to experience a real MAX minus MCAS and STS, or has the request been withdrawn?
 
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PixelFlight
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, January 2020

Sun Jan 05, 2020 9:17 pm

enzo011 wrote:
Article about some of the problems that Boeing is working on aside from MCAS. Seems they are looking at wiring that may cause a short and force the plane down if the pilots doesn't react quick enough. Then there is also lightning protection that was inadvertently removed to fit the engines on the aircraft. Those are some of issues also being looked at.

It’s Not Just Software. New Safety Risks Under Scrutiny on Boeing’s 737 Max.

Even as Boeing inches closer to getting the 737 Max back in the air, new problems with the plane are emerging that go beyond the software that played a role in two deadly crashes.

...

The company is looking at whether two bundles of critical wiring are too close together and could cause a short circuit. A short in that area could lead to a crash if pilots did not respond correctly, the people said. Boeing is still trying to determine whether that scenario could actually occur on a flight and, if so, whether it will need to separate the wire bundles in the roughly 800 Max jets that have already been built. The company says that the fix, if needed, is relatively simple.

...

Boeing also recently told the F.A.A. that it had discovered a manufacturing problem that left the plane’s engines vulnerable to a lightning strike.

While assembling the Max, workers at Boeing’s Renton factory had ground down the outer shell of a panel that sits atop the engine housing in an effort to ensure a better fit into the plane. In doing so, they inadvertently removed the coating that insulates the panel from a lightning strike, taking away a crucial protection for the fuel tank and fuel lines. The F.A.A. is developing a directive that will require the company to restore lightning protection to the engine panel and Boeing is already in the process of resolving the issue.


It does state in the article that there will be simulator flights for regulators from Europe this week coming up. So progress it seems but challenges could still demand attention form the company.

Thanks for the link and resume.
This make the production stop far more understandable to me, especially the lightning strike protection issue.
:stirthepot: 737-8 MAX: "For all speeds higher than 220 Kts and trim set at a value of 2.5 units, the difficulity level of turning the manual trim wheel was level A (trim wheel not movable)." :stirthepot:
 
sxf24
Posts: 1001
Joined: Wed Aug 15, 2007 12:22 pm

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, January 2020

Sun Jan 05, 2020 10:44 pm

smartplane wrote:
From industry comment and reading between the lines, RTS will treat new builds, built but undelivered and delivered differently.

New builds
Will have to incorporate all software and hardware changes before customer delivery. The other reason production has stopped.

Already delivered
Will have to incorporate some software and hardware changes before RTS. Will be subject to additional AD's, with possible operating restrictions until all actioned.

Already built / not delivered
The controversial group. Boeing position was - treat the same as 'already delivered'. FAA / EASA position was - treat as new builds.
Compromise - Boeing stops making the group numerically any larger (ceases production). FAA / EASA agree to treat as 'already delivered'.

To make it happen asap, some interesting partnerships and joint ventures likely / possible, otherwise MRO capacity and supply of modified components will be factors limiting RTS. And perhaps novel temporary FAA funding too.


Boeing never proposed treating already built but not delivered any differently than new aircraft. They’ve told airlines these airplanes would have all updates and ADs and be delivered with a maintenance condition equivalent with fresh from the factory aircraft.
 
oschkosch
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, January 2020

Sun Jan 05, 2020 11:19 pm

similar to what NYT writes:

https://www.businessinsider.de/internat ... ?r=US&IR=T


Investigations into the Boeing 737 Max planes that were grounded after two deadly crashes have uncovered additional concerns with the wiring and engines.

The New York Times reports that Boeing’s internal audit completed at the request of the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) found that two bundles of crticial wiring might be too close together.

Previous flaws in the software of the planes could trigger nose dives, and the software fix has yet to be approved in the process of getting the planes back into service that has taken longer than expected.

The 737 Max engines have also fallen under scrutiny, thanks to a possible weakness in a rotor and a manufacturing problem that left the engines vulnerable to lightning strikes.



Gesendet von meinem SM-G950F mit Tapatalk
:stirthepot: :airplane: "This airplane is designed by clowns, who in turn are supervised by monkeys" :airplane: :stirthepot:
 
MrBretz
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, January 2020

Sun Jan 05, 2020 11:43 pm

Regarding the two bundles of critical wiring being too close together, the article did say that Boeing said the fix was putting a clamp between the bundles. It was about an hour or two of labor for each aircraft. Now I'm sure some on you are thinking of why would believe these estimates based on previous Boeing prognostications. I think we will have some good updates by the end of the month with the simulator flight tests by the European agency which is to be held soon.
 
smartplane
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, January 2020

Mon Jan 06, 2020 12:03 am

sxf24 wrote:
smartplane wrote:
From industry comment and reading between the lines, RTS will treat new builds, built but undelivered and delivered differently.

New builds
Will have to incorporate all software and hardware changes before customer delivery. The other reason production has stopped.

Already delivered
Will have to incorporate some software and hardware changes before RTS. Will be subject to additional AD's, with possible operating restrictions until all actioned.

Already built / not delivered
The controversial group. Boeing position was - treat the same as 'already delivered'. FAA / EASA position was - treat as new builds.
Compromise - Boeing stops making the group numerically any larger (ceases production). FAA / EASA agree to treat as 'already delivered'.

To make it happen asap, some interesting partnerships and joint ventures likely / possible, otherwise MRO capacity and supply of modified components will be factors limiting RTS. And perhaps novel temporary FAA funding too.


Boeing never proposed treating already built but not delivered any differently than new aircraft. They’ve told airlines these airplanes would have all updates and ADs and be delivered with a maintenance condition equivalent with fresh from the factory aircraft.

Boeing crafted their assurance to customers carefully (perhaps possessing a crystal ball, or knowing what could be discovered), only in relation to MCAS-related findings and recommendations. Boeing has not given an assurance in respect to the growing list of non MCAS-related findings and recommendations, which would be welcomed by owners and financiers.
 
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Francoflier
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, January 2020

Mon Jan 06, 2020 12:43 am

Wouldn't the issues found with the engine also affect the LEAP 1A?
I'll do my own airline. With Blackjack. And hookers. In fact, forget the airline.
 
sxf24
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Joined: Wed Aug 15, 2007 12:22 pm

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, January 2020

Mon Jan 06, 2020 1:07 am

smartplane wrote:
sxf24 wrote:
smartplane wrote:
From industry comment and reading between the lines, RTS will treat new builds, built but undelivered and delivered differently.

New builds
Will have to incorporate all software and hardware changes before customer delivery. The other reason production has stopped.

Already delivered
Will have to incorporate some software and hardware changes before RTS. Will be subject to additional AD's, with possible operating restrictions until all actioned.

Already built / not delivered
The controversial group. Boeing position was - treat the same as 'already delivered'. FAA / EASA position was - treat as new builds.
Compromise - Boeing stops making the group numerically any larger (ceases production). FAA / EASA agree to treat as 'already delivered'.

To make it happen asap, some interesting partnerships and joint ventures likely / possible, otherwise MRO capacity and supply of modified components will be factors limiting RTS. And perhaps novel temporary FAA funding too.


Boeing never proposed treating already built but not delivered any differently than new aircraft. They’ve told airlines these airplanes would have all updates and ADs and be delivered with a maintenance condition equivalent with fresh from the factory aircraft.

Boeing crafted their assurance to customers carefully (perhaps possessing a crystal ball, or knowing what could be discovered), only in relation to MCAS-related findings and recommendations. Boeing has not given an assurance in respect to the growing list of non MCAS-related findings and recommendations, which would be welcomed by owners and financiers.


Incorrect. Boeing has told customers all undelivered aircraft will be delivered in the same status and configuration. I’ve confirmed this with airlines and lessors.
 
MrBretz
Posts: 548
Joined: Tue Jun 14, 2016 9:13 pm

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding News and Reference Thread 2020

Mon Jan 06, 2020 6:11 am

LoganTheBogan wrote:
FAA is reviewing wiring issue found on the 737 MAX:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-boei ... SKBN1Z40U9

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/05/busi ... 7-max.html

"The New York Times reported Boeing is reviewing whether two bundles of wiring are too close together, which could lead to a short circuit and potentially result in a crash if pilots did not respond appropriately" via Reuters.


Once again, it can be fixed by clamps that take less than 2 hours per plane. It is trivial.
 
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ordell
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, January 2020

Mon Jan 06, 2020 7:03 am

This article says the MAX issues are the outcome of the MD merger. Interesting hypothesis.

https://qz.com/1776080/how-the-mcdonnel ... ax-crisis/
 
Tavocruz
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding News and Reference Thread 2020

Mon Jan 06, 2020 7:22 am

MrBretz wrote:

Once again, it can be fixed by clamps that take less than 2 hours per plane. It is trivial.


You consider the fact that this serious fault has only been discovered now to be trivial too?
 
asdf
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, January 2020

Mon Jan 06, 2020 7:35 am

MrBretz wrote:
Regarding the two bundles of critical wiring being too close together, the article did say that Boeing said the fix was putting a clamp between the bundles. It was about an hour or two of labor for each aircraft. Now I'm sure some on you are thinking of why would believe these estimates based on previous Boeing prognostications. I think we will have some good updates by the end of the month with the simulator flight tests by the European agency which is to be held soon.


To close together means that they could both be affected by a major engine incident

you can not fix that with clamps ...
 
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flyingphil
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding News and Reference Thread 2020

Mon Jan 06, 2020 7:38 am

Tavocruz wrote:
MrBretz wrote:

Once again, it can be fixed by clamps that take less than 2 hours per plane. It is trivial.


You consider the fact that this serious fault has only been discovered now to be trivial too?


Trivial ??
“ The FAA flagged the wiring issue as potentially “catastrophic.”

It is the continual leaking out of these trivial issues that is cause for concern.. the lightening protection on the engines, the vulnerability of the rudder cables, etc, etc.

Latest rumours are that the FAA is going to mandate training in a 737MAX simulator.. as far as I know there are only a handful of 737MAX simulators..

The saga drags on and on.. the airlines and lessors seem remarkably patient.. maybe it is more profitable for them to sit tight and bill Boeing for compensation?
 
Interested
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding News and Reference Thread 2020

Mon Jan 06, 2020 7:46 am

MrBretz wrote:
LoganTheBogan wrote:
FAA is reviewing wiring issue found on the 737 MAX:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-boei ... SKBN1Z40U9

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/05/busi ... 7-max.html

"The New York Times reported Boeing is reviewing whether two bundles of wiring are too close together, which could lead to a short circuit and potentially result in a crash if pilots did not respond appropriately" via Reuters.


Once again, it can be fixed by clamps that take less than 2 hours per plane. It is trivial.


Comments like this just completely underline why the trust in Boeing is virtually non existent right now
 
mjoelnir
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding News and Reference Thread 2020

Mon Jan 06, 2020 7:56 am

flyingphil wrote:
Tavocruz wrote:
MrBretz wrote:

Once again, it can be fixed by clamps that take less than 2 hours per plane. It is trivial.


You consider the fact that this serious fault has only been discovered now to be trivial too?


Trivial ??
“ The FAA flagged the wiring issue as potentially “catastrophic.”

It is the continual leaking out of these trivial issues that is cause for concern.. the lightening protection on the engines, the vulnerability of the rudder cables, etc, etc.

Latest rumours are that the FAA is going to mandate training in a 737MAX simulator.. as far as I know there are only a handful of 737MAX simulators..

The saga drags on and on.. the airlines and lessors seem remarkably patient.. maybe it is more profitable for them to sit tight and bill Boeing for compensation?


Slowly one does understand why Boeing wanted to avoid all the regulators taking a deeper look at the 737MAX. There seems to be quite a respectable list of issues and one does not know what else crops up.

The WJS about the simulator training:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-regula ... _lead_pos6

quote: Boeing has long maintained 737 MAX pilots don’t need supplemental simulator training beyond what pilots receive to fly other 737 models, a stance that many FAA officials now regard with increasing skepticism, according to the officials.

The FAA’s changed outlook on simulator training has arisen partly because Boeing and regulators are proposing rewriting some emergency checklists for pilots and creating some new ones, according to some of these officials.

In addition, one of these officials said, the FAA expects certain cockpit alert lights to be updated so they can notify crews of potential problems with an automated stall-prevention feature called MCAS. Misfires of that system led to two fatal MAX nosedives in less than five months, taking 346 lives and resulting in global grounding of the planes in March.

Simulator training typically is used to ensure flight crews understand and can respond appropriately to numerous changes in emergency procedures or alerts.


The shortage of simulators could mean some income for the smaller airlines having invested in such a thing. They need of course to be overhauled, as they did not realy simulate a MAX. Icelandair has one and I am sure is prepared to offer airlines the use of it.
 
oschkosch
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, January 2020

Mon Jan 06, 2020 8:53 am

Does the news about additional Simulator training mean that the "few hours on an iPad" training is off the books now?
:stirthepot: :airplane: "This airplane is designed by clowns, who in turn are supervised by monkeys" :airplane: :stirthepot:
 
MSPNWA
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding News and Reference Thread 2020

Mon Jan 06, 2020 8:56 am

Interested wrote:
Comments like this just completely underline why the trust in Boeing is virtually non existent right now


The NYT article backs up the claim.

It wouldn't be close to a newsworthy item if it weren't about the MAX. It might not even be looked at if it weren't the MAX. It underlines how the media is untrustworthy in painting a contextual picture. And it also doesn't build trust in regulators for acting on relevant safety improvements.
 
kalvado
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding News and Reference Thread 2020

Mon Jan 06, 2020 9:04 am

MSPNWA wrote:
Interested wrote:
Comments like this just completely underline why the trust in Boeing is virtually non existent right now


The NYT article backs up the claim.

It wouldn't be close to a newsworthy item if it weren't about the MAX. It might not even be looked at if it weren't the MAX. It underlines how the media is untrustworthy in painting a contextual picture. And it also doesn't build trust in regulators for acting on relevant safety improvements.

Contextual picture is of a company unable to design and build things to modern standards with proper integration throughout the process. Grinding off coating for a better fit is a prime example of lacking process integration and nobody being actually in charge with enough knowledge of design and build flow. You may downplay that as a small ommission, but for me this is a flashing red light. would be ok as an isolated problem, but coming up after a year of scrutiny.... Contextual picture is flabbergasting
 
Interested
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding News and Reference Thread 2020

Mon Jan 06, 2020 9:12 am

MSPNWA wrote:
Interested wrote:
Comments like this just completely underline why the trust in Boeing is virtually non existent right now


The NYT article backs up the claim.

It wouldn't be close to a newsworthy item if it weren't about the MAX. It might not even be looked at if it weren't the MAX. It underlines how the media is untrustworthy in painting a contextual picture. And it also doesn't build trust in regulators for acting on relevant safety improvements.


The flippant way it's described and discounted is the problem. Don't underestimate the response of general public to calling potential catastrophic situations trivial. You may be speaking in terms of people within the industry. It's people outside of the industry Boeing have already lost the trust of

Equally away from here - the failure of the Boeing CEO to show any skill in communication or empathy or ability to win trust is one big reason he's lost his job

It's a continuing element of these threads where the people defending Boeing comment with arrogant language that removes any little trust of anything Boeing that remains right now

Forget about the detail I'm talking about the flippant and arrogant language used.

It does Boeing zero favours and just antagonizes the people whose trust Boeing need to win back

Anyone managing PR at Boeing right now should be doing the exact opposite of calling any potential catastrophic situation "trivial"

But that's Boeing's problem not mine. I'm just pointing out how important communication will be in regaining any semblance of trust. And how damaging comments like the above can be.

One of the disadvantages of an engineer being CEO of Boeing was he didn't know how to gain trust and empathy. He just knew how to talk about planes. Several defending Boeing in this thread over the months have the same failings

Boeing needs some good PR and some great communicators who can help win trust back. The last thing it needs is to erode it any further.

IMO
 
Interested
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding News and Reference Thread 2020

Mon Jan 06, 2020 9:19 am

kalvado wrote:
MSPNWA wrote:
Interested wrote:
Comments like this just completely underline why the trust in Boeing is virtually non existent right now


The NYT article backs up the claim.

It wouldn't be close to a newsworthy item if it weren't about the MAX. It might not even be looked at if it weren't the MAX. It underlines how the media is untrustworthy in painting a contextual picture. And it also doesn't build trust in regulators for acting on relevant safety improvements.

Contextual picture is of a company unable to design and build things to modern standards with proper integration throughout the process. Grinding off coating for a better fit is a prime example of lacking process integration and nobody being actually in charge with enough knowledge of design and build flow. You may downplay that as a small ommission, but for me this is a flashing red light. would be ok as an isolated problem, but coming up after a year of scrutiny.... Contextual picture is flabbergasting


So if the plane is grandfathered from NG737 why would this problem not also be on that plane? Or is it a new problem due to MCAS?

Sorry if that's a naive question
 
smartplane
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, January 2020

Mon Jan 06, 2020 9:21 am

sxf24 wrote:
smartplane wrote:
Boeing crafted their assurance to customers carefully (perhaps possessing a crystal ball, or knowing what could be discovered), only in relation to MCAS-related findings and recommendations. Boeing has not given an assurance in respect to the growing list of non MCAS-related findings and recommendations, which would be welcomed by owners and financiers.


Incorrect. Boeing has told customers all undelivered aircraft will be delivered in the same status and configuration. I’ve confirmed this with airlines and lessors.

Seems Boeing are ignoring the Top Gun message already delivered by the FAA - "Son, your ego is writing checks your body can't cash". And customers are breaching their confidentiality agreement, which potentially impacts their compensation package, and the delivery priority (or otherwise) of already built aircraft.

Boeing's promise to customers that all already built aircraft, AND all new builds off the production line, will be delivered with NO outstanding AD's or changes, MCAS related and unrelated, should certainly boost customer and passenger confidence.
 
kalvado
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding News and Reference Thread 2020

Mon Jan 06, 2020 9:25 am

Interested wrote:
kalvado wrote:
MSPNWA wrote:

The NYT article backs up the claim.

It wouldn't be close to a newsworthy item if it weren't about the MAX. It might not even be looked at if it weren't the MAX. It underlines how the media is untrustworthy in painting a contextual picture. And it also doesn't build trust in regulators for acting on relevant safety improvements.

Contextual picture is of a company unable to design and build things to modern standards with proper integration throughout the process. Grinding off coating for a better fit is a prime example of lacking process integration and nobody being actually in charge with enough knowledge of design and build flow. You may downplay that as a small ommission, but for me this is a flashing red light. would be ok as an isolated problem, but coming up after a year of scrutiny.... Contextual picture is flabbergasting


So if the plane is grandfathered from NG737 why would this problem not also be on that plane? Or is it a new problem due to MCAS?

Sorry if that's a naive question

I wouldn't be surprised if this is a newer technology. I suspect this became composite part instead of aluminum, which requires different assembling protocol - but nobody bothered to review assembly procedures. Oh, and particulate protection for workers should be very different. And effects on part strength. And.... And one of those small problems may become the last straw....
 
LondonAero
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, January 2020

Mon Jan 06, 2020 9:56 am

I am trying to get my head around what this potential SIM training could actually mean in terms of RTS and production. There are 800 planes now built but not flying. That is approx 9,000 MAX pilots that are needed for that group of planes. Lets say 10 hours of SIM per pilot (too much?) and SIM's run 24 hours per day. I think there are 15-20 SIM's currently (or by March - according to CAE). If you use 20 SIMS that means it would take 6 months to get all of these 9,000 pilots trained up. And if they start delivering 40 planes per month in addition that would take another 7 SIMS running 24/7 to train enough pilots. Does that make sense? It feels like that even if they get approval for RTS in March/April it could be until Oct/Nov until they re-start production?
 
Tavocruz
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding News and Reference Thread 2020

Mon Jan 06, 2020 10:04 am

MSPNWA wrote:

It wouldn't be close to a newsworthy item if it weren't about the MAX. It might not even be looked at if it weren't the MAX. It underlines how the media is untrustworthy in painting a contextual picture. And it also doesn't build trust in regulators for acting on relevant safety improvements.


So the press is to blame, and the regulators are to blame.......but you place no blame on Boeing for yet another potential catastrophic design error!?
Yes, the Max is under the magnifying glass at present; but for good reason!
Which this example underlines nicely.
 
Interested
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, January 2020

Mon Jan 06, 2020 10:07 am

LondonAero wrote:
I am trying to get my head around what this potential SIM training could actually mean in terms of RTS and production. There are 800 planes now built but not flying. That is approx 9,000 MAX pilots that are needed for that group of planes. Lets say 10 hours of SIM per pilot (too much?) and SIM's run 24 hours per day. I think there are 15-20 SIM's currently (or by March - according to CAE). If you use 20 SIMS that means it would take 6 months to get all of these 9,000 pilots trained up. And if they start delivering 40 planes per month in addition that would take another 7 SIMS running 24/7 to train enough pilots. Does that make sense? It feels like that even if they get approval for RTS in March/April it could be until Oct/Nov until they re-start production?


Aren't your estimates assuming that all of these Sims are not already being used for other training?

I assume they are already at capacity as they are with general training etc??

And who trains the trainers the new stuff

Are these Sims already used 24 hrs - if not why not?

Etc etc
 
LondonAero
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, January 2020

Mon Jan 06, 2020 10:10 am

Interested wrote:
LondonAero wrote:
I am trying to get my head around what this potential SIM training could actually mean in terms of RTS and production. There are 800 planes now built but not flying. That is approx 9,000 MAX pilots that are needed for that group of planes. Lets say 10 hours of SIM per pilot (too much?) and SIM's run 24 hours per day. I think there are 15-20 SIM's currently (or by March - according to CAE). If you use 20 SIMS that means it would take 6 months to get all of these 9,000 pilots trained up. And if they start delivering 40 planes per month in addition that would take another 7 SIMS running 24/7 to train enough pilots. Does that make sense? It feels like that even if they get approval for RTS in March/April it could be until Oct/Nov until they re-start production?


Aren't your estimates assuming that all of these Sims are not already being used for other training?

I assume they are already at capacity as they are with general training etc??

And who trains the trainers the new stuff

Are these Sims already used 24 hrs - if not why not?

Etc etc


Yes - I agree. I would assume they would all move over to MAX training as soon as they know what needs to be done.
 
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scbriml
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding News and Reference Thread 2020

Mon Jan 06, 2020 10:44 am

MSPNWA wrote:
It wouldn't be close to a newsworthy item if it weren't about the MAX. It might not even be looked at if it weren't the MAX. It underlines how the media is untrustworthy in painting a contextual picture. And it also doesn't build trust in regulators for acting on relevant safety improvements.


An issue the FAA characterised as “potentially catastrophic” is not newsworthy? :sarcastic:

Tavocruz wrote:
So the press is to blame, and the regulators are to blame.......but you place no blame on Boeing for yet another potential catastrophic design error!?
Yes, the Max is under the magnifying glass at present; but for good reason!
Which this example underlines nicely.


Yep, blame everyone except Boeing. Heck, there are more and more opinion pieces blaming all this on McDonnell-Douglas. :rotfl:
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
There are 10 types of people in the World - those that understand binary and those that don't.
 
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flyingphil
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, January 2020

Mon Jan 06, 2020 10:47 am

.. so with all the Sim Training, hardware and software fixes required.. the timeline for Return to Service seems to be receding into the sunset.. anyone care to make a guess?

Is this anyway to run a business?

Meanwhile Spirit Aerosystems, CFM, and the other suppliers are supposed to be sitting on their hands?? No doubt they should be talking to Airbus about working on the A220 & A320.
 
mjoelnir
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, January 2020

Mon Jan 06, 2020 10:47 am

Interested wrote:
LondonAero wrote:
I am trying to get my head around what this potential SIM training could actually mean in terms of RTS and production. There are 800 planes now built but not flying. That is approx 9,000 MAX pilots that are needed for that group of planes. Lets say 10 hours of SIM per pilot (too much?) and SIM's run 24 hours per day. I think there are 15-20 SIM's currently (or by March - according to CAE). If you use 20 SIMS that means it would take 6 months to get all of these 9,000 pilots trained up. And if they start delivering 40 planes per month in addition that would take another 7 SIMS running 24/7 to train enough pilots. Does that make sense? It feels like that even if they get approval for RTS in March/April it could be until Oct/Nov until they re-start production?


Aren't your estimates assuming that all of these Sims are not already being used for other training?

I assume they are already at capacity as they are with general training etc??

And who trains the trainers the new stuff

Are these Sims already used 24 hrs - if not why not?

Etc etc


What general training? All Max are grounded. the only work for MAX simulators to start with, will be the first training for Max pilots to get certified. I think Icelandair for example needs to train 84 pilots, that at least was the number of pilots expected to fly the 9 frames. If we assume 10 hours per pilot on the simulator at Icelandair, that would mean 14 pilots a week, that would mean 6 weeks and the simulator would be free to be offered to other airlines.

By this time I would have expected airlines like Southwest or United to have ordered a few simulators, if they expected those frames to fly again.

It seems to just lousy not North American airlines have invested in MAX simulators, like for example Ethiopian Airlines.
 
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teme82
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding News and Reference Thread 2020

Mon Jan 06, 2020 10:52 am

LoganTheBogan wrote:
FAA is reviewing wiring issue found on the 737 MAX:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-boei ... SKBN1Z40U9

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/05/busi ... 7-max.html

"The New York Times reported Boeing is reviewing whether two bundles of wiring are too close together, which could lead to a short circuit and potentially result in a crash if pilots did not respond appropriately" via Reuters.

Sounds like the wire issues from the past are again up (TWA 800). FAA now must do triple checks on everything in the MAX.
Flying high and low
 
XRAYretired
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, January 2020

Mon Jan 06, 2020 11:00 am

LondonAero wrote:
Interested wrote:
LondonAero wrote:
I am trying to get my head around what this potential SIM training could actually mean in terms of RTS and production. There are 800 planes now built but not flying. That is approx 9,000 MAX pilots that are needed for that group of planes. Lets say 10 hours of SIM per pilot (too much?) and SIM's run 24 hours per day. I think there are 15-20 SIM's currently (or by March - according to CAE). If you use 20 SIMS that means it would take 6 months to get all of these 9,000 pilots trained up. And if they start delivering 40 planes per month in addition that would take another 7 SIMS running 24/7 to train enough pilots. Does that make sense? It feels like that even if they get approval for RTS in March/April it could be until Oct/Nov until they re-start production?


Aren't your estimates assuming that all of these Sims are not already being used for other training?

I assume they are already at capacity as they are with general training etc??

And who trains the trainers the new stuff

Are these Sims already used 24 hrs - if not why not?

Etc etc


Yes - I agree. I would assume they would all move over to MAX training as soon as they know what needs to be done.

Without looking it up, reports around Q3 2019 stated 185 MAX Sims had been delivered and it was expected to double this number by end 2019.

Ray
 
Interested
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, January 2020

Mon Jan 06, 2020 11:12 am

mjoelnir wrote:
Interested wrote:
LondonAero wrote:
I am trying to get my head around what this potential SIM training could actually mean in terms of RTS and production. There are 800 planes now built but not flying. That is approx 9,000 MAX pilots that are needed for that group of planes. Lets say 10 hours of SIM per pilot (too much?) and SIM's run 24 hours per day. I think there are 15-20 SIM's currently (or by March - according to CAE). If you use 20 SIMS that means it would take 6 months to get all of these 9,000 pilots trained up. And if they start delivering 40 planes per month in addition that would take another 7 SIMS running 24/7 to train enough pilots. Does that make sense? It feels like that even if they get approval for RTS in March/April it could be until Oct/Nov until they re-start production?


Aren't your estimates assuming that all of these Sims are not already being used for other training?

I assume they are already at capacity as they are with general training etc??

And who trains the trainers the new stuff

Are these Sims already used 24 hrs - if not why not?

Etc etc


What general training? All Max are grounded. the only work for MAX simulators to start with, will be the first training for Max pilots to get certified. I think Icelandair for example needs to train 84 pilots, that at least was the number of pilots expected to fly the 9 frames. If we assume 10 hours per pilot on the simulator at Icelandair, that would mean 14 pilots a week, that would mean 6 weeks and the simulator would be free to be offered to other airlines.

By this time I would have expected airlines like Southwest or United to have ordered a few simulators, if they expected those frames to fly again.

It seems to just lousy not North American airlines have invested in MAX simulators, like for example Ethiopian Airlines.


Training pilots who haven't yet qualified to fly planes??

Isn't that a huge part of what Sims are bought for?

They clearly weren't bought to give training to existing pilots that wasn't needed?
 
maint123
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, January 2020

Mon Jan 06, 2020 11:13 am

Seeing the multitude of issues with boeing , it's my belief now that it's the much maligned pilots who have been keeping the accident rates low with their skill. So many issues with boeing planes over the years which didnt result in fatalities. the fatality rate has dropped inspite of the poor quality of the Boeing planes.
But this max is such a lemon that even highly qualified pilots couldn't prevent the accidents.
 
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par13del
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, January 2020

Mon Jan 06, 2020 11:36 am

So how is this wire bundle issue different from the one noted during the MAX certification or the numerous other articles revealed when the MAX was first grounded, is this the same issue that folks used to justify the statements that the working relationship between the two was broken and Boeing was self certifying to the danger of the pax?
 
mjoelnir
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, January 2020

Mon Jan 06, 2020 11:38 am

Interested wrote:
mjoelnir wrote:
Interested wrote:

Aren't your estimates assuming that all of these Sims are not already being used for other training?

I assume they are already at capacity as they are with general training etc??

And who trains the trainers the new stuff

Are these Sims already used 24 hrs - if not why not?

Etc etc


What general training? All Max are grounded. the only work for MAX simulators to start with, will be the first training for Max pilots to get certified. I think Icelandair for example needs to train 84 pilots, that at least was the number of pilots expected to fly the 9 frames. If we assume 10 hours per pilot on the simulator at Icelandair, that would mean 14 pilots a week, that would mean 6 weeks and the simulator would be free to be offered to other airlines.

By this time I would have expected airlines like Southwest or United to have ordered a few simulators, if they expected those frames to fly again.

It seems to just lousy not North American airlines have invested in MAX simulators, like for example Ethiopian Airlines.


Training pilots who haven't yet qualified to fly planes??

Isn't that a huge part of what Sims are bought for?

They clearly weren't bought to give training to existing pilots that wasn't needed?


Icelandair bought the MAX simulator to train MAX pilots.

The point that is absurd, every pilot has to go once in a while into the simulator to refresh. What did the big USA airlines wanted to use for their MAX pilots?
 
LondonAero
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, January 2020

Mon Jan 06, 2020 11:47 am

XRAYretired wrote:
LondonAero wrote:
Interested wrote:

Aren't your estimates assuming that all of these Sims are not already being used for other training?

I assume they are already at capacity as they are with general training etc??

And who trains the trainers the new stuff

Are these Sims already used 24 hrs - if not why not?

Etc etc


Yes - I agree. I would assume they would all move over to MAX training as soon as they know what needs to be done.

Without looking it up, reports around Q3 2019 stated 185 MAX Sims had been delivered and it was expected to double this number by end 2019.

Ray


CAE from their November conference call said they have delivered 9 MAX SIMS and hoped to double that number by March 2020.
 
ltbewr
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, January 2020

Mon Jan 06, 2020 11:55 am

As I suggested previously, there will be additional issues and complications to cause further delays in the RTS of the 737MAX, possibly late 4Q 2020 if no more problems crop up, but that may be optimistic and it could be 2Q2021 before significant number of them are in revenue service.

The mandate of simulator training on MAX designed units before RTS, the limited number of simulators, the need to reprogram or make modifications to include the proposed changes in MACS is now another wrench in the works to cause delays. What if too, in the simulator they find pilots have issues with operations if a conflict with MACS ? Then you have further delays.

Then there is the apparently new wiring issue, of certain critical systems have wire bundles too close together so if a short or other problem could be catastrophic. We here are aware of how serious it can be with several problems of critical electrical and hydraulic lines too close causing deadly crashes, in particular with the DC-10/MD11 (Swissair 111-electrical, AA 191 and UA232 both hydraulic control systems line placement). Who knows yet what and how that fix will be, the practical ability and costs to correct.

It seems that the 737MAX and Boeing are facing one of the greatest engineering failures as to aircraft in decades. That is complicated for Boeing by the developmental problems with the new version of the 777 and problems with the military side aircraft 767 based tanker.
 
LondonAero
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, January 2020

Mon Jan 06, 2020 12:49 pm

And now there are reports that the company is thinking about cutting capex and R&D spending in order to help maintain the balance sheet. This is exactly the opposite of what they should be doing (unless they are really concerned about the financials). But they just approved a $1.2bn divident payment. What is the Board doing??
 
Zaf
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, January 2020

Mon Jan 06, 2020 1:10 pm

KLAXWOLF wrote:
Look some great news from today LOLOLOL:https://www.airlive.net/breaking-the-faa-confirmed-reviewing-a-potentially-catastrophic-wiring-issue-that-could-cause-a-short-circuit-on-the-boeing-737max/?fbclid=IwAR0sEdX1kPFbc179A-2Wagw20nBk5jWtN_FKYz8qSq9lKxawfvs3zf4Rg5I
They really shoul'd srape the BOEING 737 MAX!


It looks like those 800 planes should be scrapped and a clean sheet plane should be designed.
 
Agrajag
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, January 2020

Mon Jan 06, 2020 1:16 pm

Wasnt the point about the 'max' sims that they werent actually proper 'max' sims in that they didnt replicate the max properly. No MCAS, no real world simulated manual trim. I think Boeing have well and truely been caught with their pants down over the sims because if training is mandated, the lack of sims will be the biggest delay factor in getting the planes back up in the air. That is why they have been so resistant to any suggestion that sim training be required. Its a real omnishambles!!
The plural of anecdote is anecdotes, not data.
Slartibartfast had a point
 
Elementalism
Posts: 602
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, January 2020

Mon Jan 06, 2020 1:19 pm

LondonAero wrote:
And now there are reports that the company is thinking about cutting capex and R&D spending in order to help maintain the balance sheet. This is exactly the opposite of what they should be doing (unless they are really concerned about the financials). But they just approved a $1.2bn divident payment. What is the Board doing??


Hmm stakeholders trying to take what they can as this thing sinks? Kind of weird to cut R&D during a time when a new design should be ramped up but then cut a dividend at the same time.
 
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SomebodyInTLS
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, January 2020

Mon Jan 06, 2020 1:20 pm

MrBretz wrote:
KLAXWOLF wrote:
Look some great news from today LOLOLOL:https://www.airlive.net/breaking-the-faa-confirmed-reviewing-a-potentially-catastrophic-wiring-issue-that-could-cause-a-short-circuit-on-the-boeing-737max/?fbclid=IwAR0sEdX1kPFbc179A-2Wagw20nBk5jWtN_FKYz8qSq9lKxawfvs3zf4Rg5I
They really shoul'd srape the BOEING 737 MAX!


The same thing was posted in the NYTimes article but that article said it was an hour or two fix to put a clamp between the bundles if that was needed. So I would not LOL or stress too much.


I didn't see it stated what the wiring affected. In the light of the still undetermined source of AoA divergence and the whistleblower mentioning wiring issues a few weeks after Lion Air this could be significant (of course, it might also be unrelated).
"As with most things related to aircraft design, it's all about the trade-offs and much more nuanced than A.net likes to make out."
 
AABusDrvr
Posts: 153
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, January 2020

Mon Jan 06, 2020 1:33 pm

LondonAero wrote:
I am trying to get my head around what this potential SIM training could actually mean in terms of RTS and production. There are 800 planes now built but not flying. That is approx 9,000 MAX pilots that are needed for that group of planes. Lets say 10 hours of SIM per pilot (too much?) and SIM's run 24 hours per day. I think there are 15-20 SIM's currently (or by March - according to CAE). If you use 20 SIMS that means it would take 6 months to get all of these 9,000 pilots trained up. And if they start delivering 40 planes per month in addition that would take another 7 SIMS running 24/7 to train enough pilots. Does that make sense? It feels like that even if they get approval for RTS in March/April it could be until Oct/Nov until they re-start production?



A typical "training day", at least at the airlines I've flown for, is two simulator sessions, of two hours each. I can't imagine any required training taking more than one training day. Anything over that would be a serious waste of everyones time.

The simulators cant run 24/7. They need down time for maintenance.


mjoelnir wrote:

Icelandair bought the MAX simulator to train MAX pilots.

The point that is absurd, every pilot has to go once in a while into the simulator to refresh. What did the big USA airlines wanted to use for their MAX pilots?



As of right now, there are no "MAX pilots", only 737 pilots. Differences training allowed you to fly both.
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding News and Reference Thread 2020

Mon Jan 06, 2020 1:46 pm

teme82 wrote:
LoganTheBogan wrote:
FAA is reviewing wiring issue found on the 737 MAX:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-boei ... SKBN1Z40U9

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/05/busi ... 7-max.html

"The New York Times reported Boeing is reviewing whether two bundles of wiring are too close together, which could lead to a short circuit and potentially result in a crash if pilots did not respond appropriately" via Reuters.

Sounds like the wire issues from the past are again up (TWA 800). FAA now must do triple checks on everything in the MAX.


Yes, they do and rightfully so. Boeing has his work cut out for them if this keeps piling up. 7,046 NG's delivered and 800 MAX build, the fix might be small per a/c but it a numbers game.

The question, of course, is, will EASA or the FAA find something else?
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
morrisond
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, January 2020

Mon Jan 06, 2020 1:51 pm

XRAYretired wrote:
LondonAero wrote:
Interested wrote:

Aren't your estimates assuming that all of these Sims are not already being used for other training?

I assume they are already at capacity as they are with general training etc??

And who trains the trainers the new stuff

Are these Sims already used 24 hrs - if not why not?

Etc etc


Yes - I agree. I would assume they would all move over to MAX training as soon as they know what needs to be done.

Without looking it up, reports around Q3 2019 stated 185 MAX Sims had been delivered and it was expected to double this number by end 2019.

Ray


Ray - we may not agree on all things - but we can always count on you to actually provide facts vs just rampant speculation.

360 + Sims seems like enough to retrain everyone. Plus there is the is this old-time thing they can do - do the actual training in aircraft. There will be a few that will be available when RTS is approved.

Happy New Year.
 
morrisond
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding News and Reference Thread 2020

Mon Jan 06, 2020 2:01 pm

Dutchy wrote:
teme82 wrote:
LoganTheBogan wrote:
FAA is reviewing wiring issue found on the 737 MAX:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-boei ... SKBN1Z40U9

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/05/busi ... 7-max.html

"The New York Times reported Boeing is reviewing whether two bundles of wiring are too close together, which could lead to a short circuit and potentially result in a crash if pilots did not respond appropriately" via Reuters.

Sounds like the wire issues from the past are again up (TWA 800). FAA now must do triple checks on everything in the MAX.


Yes, they do and rightfully so. Boeing has his work cut out for them if this keeps piling up. 7,046 NG's delivered and 800 MAX build, the fix might be small per a/c but it a numbers game.

The question, of course, is, will EASA or the FAA find something else?


You all do understand that on average a Manufacturer would have many Airworthiness Directives issued every year for issues just like this?

For example - Airbus had 91 issued last year, Boeing 51. I'm sure in other years the numbers reverse.

Including this one where they forgot to Torque the nuts on the A350 Flaps.

http://rgl.faa.gov/Regulatory_and_Guida ... -05-10.pdf

If you really believe other than MCAS the MAX's issues are that serious spend some time on this website and you'll never fly in an Aircraft again.

https://www.faa.gov/regulations_policie ... irectives/

Or here is another doozy on the NEO I Believe - Wire Bundles chafing on Hydraulic Lines causing possible catastrophic destruction

https://ad.easa.europa.eu/ad/2019-0035R1

This is normal operating practice in the industry - Airplanes are very complex and you can't catch all issues in Design or Certification.
Last edited by morrisond on Mon Jan 06, 2020 2:13 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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glideslope
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, January 2020

Mon Jan 06, 2020 2:05 pm

ordell wrote:
This article says the MAX issues are the outcome of the MD merger. Interesting hypothesis.

https://qz.com/1776080/how-the-mcdonnel ... ax-crisis/


MD merger or not, the beginning of the end for Boeing was the passing over of Alan Mulally as CEO and his departure from the company. He was the last Boeing Senior Person who actually gave a s*** about the company and its aircraft.
To know your Enemy, you must become your Enemy.” Sun Tzu
 
oschkosch
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, January 2020

Mon Jan 06, 2020 2:28 pm

morrisond wrote:
Plus there is the is this old-time thing they can do - do the actual training in aircraft.


Would that actually be allowed? Sounds sort of far fetched to say the least. FAA says sim training mandatory, airlines do it in an airplane?

Gesendet von meinem SM-G950F mit Tapatalk
:stirthepot: :airplane: "This airplane is designed by clowns, who in turn are supervised by monkeys" :airplane: :stirthepot:
 
morrisond
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, January 2020

Mon Jan 06, 2020 2:47 pm

oschkosch wrote:
morrisond wrote:
Plus there is the is this old-time thing they can do - do the actual training in aircraft.


Would that actually be allowed? Sounds sort of far fetched to say the least. FAA says sim training mandatory, airlines do it in an airplane?

Gesendet von meinem SM-G950F mit Tapatalk


Yes with a properly certified Instructor Pilot - It's just a lot more expensive - but if Ray is right and 360 Sims are available they may have enough Sims to do the Job.

The 380+ frames in Airline service already will probably be flown multiple times before RTS - those flights could be used to train pilots as well as just used to bring Pilot's back into currency. But it all depends on what training is required.
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