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scbriml
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, January 2020

Mon Jan 06, 2020 2:59 pm

morrisond wrote:
Ray - we may not agree on all things - but we can always count on you to actually provide facts vs just rampant speculation.

360 + Sims seems like enough to retrain everyone.


I appreciate the number wasn't yours, but I'd like to see some evidence of it. I'm sceptical of 360 MAX sims in service by end of March - that's just about one per delivered MAX, which sounds high to me.
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Revelation
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, January 2020

Mon Jan 06, 2020 3:04 pm

oschkosch wrote:
Does the news about additional Simulator training mean that the "few hours on an iPad" training is off the books now?

The title of the WSJ article is "U.S. Regulators Mull Ordering Extra Simulator Training for Boeing 737 MAX Pilots" so the only news is that a change is being considered.

It seems the urge to be one step ahead of speculation is hard for many to resist.

MSPNWA wrote:
It wouldn't be close to a newsworthy item if it weren't about the MAX. It might not even be looked at if it weren't the MAX. It underlines how the media is untrustworthy in painting a contextual picture.

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LondonAero
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, January 2020

Mon Jan 06, 2020 3:09 pm

scbriml wrote:
morrisond wrote:
Ray - we may not agree on all things - but we can always count on you to actually provide facts vs just rampant speculation.

360 + Sims seems like enough to retrain everyone.


I appreciate the number wasn't yours, but I'd like to see some evidence of it. I'm sceptical of 360 MAX sims in service by end of March - that's just about one per delivered MAX, which sounds high to me.


That 360 number is not close to correct. CAE said on their November conference call regaring SIMs (see below). So by the March 2020 (end of their FY) they will likely have 18 delivered. And they have the vast majority of share. Maybe there are 360 in total for 737NG's - but not MAX.

"5 orders to date and delivered 9 deliveries to date on the 737 MAX and expect a similar number in the second half as well".
 
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, January 2020

Mon Jan 06, 2020 3:20 pm

LondonAero wrote:
scbriml wrote:
morrisond wrote:
Ray - we may not agree on all things - but we can always count on you to actually provide facts vs just rampant speculation.

360 + Sims seems like enough to retrain everyone.


I appreciate the number wasn't yours, but I'd like to see some evidence of it. I'm sceptical of 360 MAX sims in service by end of March - that's just about one per delivered MAX, which sounds high to me.


That 360 number is not close to correct. CAE said on their November conference call regaring SIMs (see below). So by the March 2020 (end of their FY) they will likely have 18 delivered. And they have the vast majority of share. Maybe there are 360 in total for 737NG's - but not MAX.

"5 orders to date and delivered 9 deliveries to date on the 737 MAX and expect a similar number in the second half as well".

And if we consider the regulators are cooking up new annunciations and new procedures for MAX we can presume each of those MAX sims will need some sort of mods to be useful for future training.
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
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morrisond
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, January 2020

Mon Jan 06, 2020 3:22 pm

LondonAero wrote:
scbriml wrote:
morrisond wrote:
Ray - we may not agree on all things - but we can always count on you to actually provide facts vs just rampant speculation.

360 + Sims seems like enough to retrain everyone.


I appreciate the number wasn't yours, but I'd like to see some evidence of it. I'm sceptical of 360 MAX sims in service by end of March - that's just about one per delivered MAX, which sounds high to me.


That 360 number is not close to correct. CAE said on their November conference call regaring SIMs (see below). So by the March 2020 (end of their FY) they will likely have 18 delivered. And they have the vast majority of share. Maybe there are 360 in total for 737NG's - but not MAX.

"5 orders to date and delivered 9 deliveries to date on the 737 MAX and expect a similar number in the second half as well".


Maybe the NG Sims can be upgraded to MAX configuration and that is what Ray was referencing. 360 does seem high to me as well. But it's not my number.

It would be weird that the NG SIMS couldn't be modified to be MAX capable as well as the control interface is not that different.
 
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, January 2020

Mon Jan 06, 2020 3:25 pm

LondonAero wrote:
scbriml wrote:
morrisond wrote:
Ray - we may not agree on all things - but we can always count on you to actually provide facts vs just rampant speculation.

360 + Sims seems like enough to retrain everyone.


I appreciate the number wasn't yours, but I'd like to see some evidence of it. I'm sceptical of 360 MAX sims in service by end of March - that's just about one per delivered MAX, which sounds high to me.


That 360 number is not close to correct. CAE said on their November conference call regaring SIMs (see below). So by the March 2020 (end of their FY) they will likely have 18 delivered. And they have the vast majority of share. Maybe there are 360 in total for 737NG's - but not MAX.

"5 orders to date and delivered 9 deliveries to date on the 737 MAX and expect a similar number in the second half as well".


correct! this was in November 2019:


https://business.financialpost.com/tran ... -up-demand

The company said it has captured the majority of the market share for Boeing 737 Max simulators, stating it has already sold 48 and delivered 19 to date, with plans to deliver nine more this fiscal year.

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dtw2hyd
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, January 2020

Mon Jan 06, 2020 3:41 pm

Looks like regulators are leaking their eureka moments just to show they are working hard.

If two wire bundles are close enough a single event can severe both, that is a design fault. Having a eureka moment now doesn't get a cookie.

Short can occur between two wires within a bundle for several reasons like ageing, poor quality wire or deferred/bad mx, what is the real story here.
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XRAYretired
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, January 2020

Mon Jan 06, 2020 3:48 pm

oschkosch wrote:
LondonAero wrote:
scbriml wrote:

I appreciate the number wasn't yours, but I'd like to see some evidence of it. I'm sceptical of 360 MAX sims in service by end of March - that's just about one per delivered MAX, which sounds high to me.


That 360 number is not close to correct. CAE said on their November conference call regaring SIMs (see below). So by the March 2020 (end of their FY) they will likely have 18 delivered. And they have the vast majority of share. Maybe there are 360 in total for 737NG's - but not MAX.

"5 orders to date and delivered 9 deliveries to date on the 737 MAX and expect a similar number in the second half as well".


correct! this was in November 2019:


https://business.financialpost.com/tran ... -up-demand

The company said it has captured the majority of the market share for Boeing 737 Max simulators, stating it has already sold 48 and delivered 19 to date, with plans to deliver nine more this fiscal year.

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Apologies to all. Would seem that the report at the time was probably in error but not disputed at the time.

https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/busin ... 15311.html

Ray
 
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par13del
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, January 2020

Mon Jan 06, 2020 3:52 pm

oschkosch wrote:
Would that actually be allowed? Sounds sort of far fetched to say the least. FAA says sim training mandatory, airlines do it in an airplane?

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FAA says Sim training is mandatory or they are reviewing the requirement for SIM training, that is probably what we need to confirm before we start speculating on implementation.
 
morrisond
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, January 2020

Mon Jan 06, 2020 4:03 pm

This article would seem to suggest that an NG SIM can be upgraded to Mimic the MAX sim.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-regula ... 1578253214
 
FlyHossD
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding News and Reference Thread 2020

Mon Jan 06, 2020 4:28 pm

LoganTheBogan wrote:
FAA is reviewing wiring issue found on the 737 MAX:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-boei ... SKBN1Z40U9

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/05/busi ... 7-max.html

"The New York Times reported Boeing is reviewing whether two bundles of wiring are too close together, which could lead to a short circuit and potentially result in a crash if pilots did not respond appropriately" via Reuters.


I'd suspect that the 737NGs have the same closely-located wire bundles. As far as I know, that hasn't been an issue. However, Boeing needs to carefully scrutinize everything at this point; they don't won't to be accused of overlooking anything.
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding News and Reference Thread 2020

Mon Jan 06, 2020 4:42 pm

I wonder how other aircraft types would fair if they too were a massive deep review.
 
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PepeTheFrog
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, January 2020

Mon Jan 06, 2020 4:46 pm

So, now Boeing might raise its dept?

Analysts expect Boeing to raise as much as $5 billion in additional debt to help cover expenditures that could top $15 billion in the first half


Boeing might even cut research & development spending?

Boeing is also thinking of deferring some capital expenditures, freezing acquisitions and cutting spending on research and development to preserve cash


Boeing Considers Raising Debt as MAX Crisis Takes Toll

That doesn't sound good for new aircraft development.

The good thing is that shareholder dividends are safe.
Good moaning!
 
morrisond
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding News and Reference Thread 2020

Mon Jan 06, 2020 4:47 pm

ikolkyo wrote:
I wonder how other aircraft types would fair if they too were a massive deep review.


Probably not well either. Aircraft are incredibly complex with a lot issues not identified until after many years of service - hence the Hundred's of AD's issued every year.

It's almost impossible to test everything in a complex system that has over 500,000 parts (albeit a lot of those fasteners).
 
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding News and Reference Thread 2020

Mon Jan 06, 2020 4:58 pm

morrisond wrote:
ikolkyo wrote:
I wonder how other aircraft types would fair if they too were a massive deep review.


Probably not well either. Aircraft are incredibly complex with a lot issues not identified until after many years of service - hence the Hundred's of AD's issued every year.

It's almost impossible to test everything in a complex system that has over 500,000 parts (albeit a lot of those fasteners).


That’s how I feel as well.
 
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding News and Reference Thread 2020

Mon Jan 06, 2020 5:14 pm

ikolkyo wrote:
morrisond wrote:
ikolkyo wrote:
I wonder how other aircraft types would fair if they too were a massive deep review.


Probably not well either. Aircraft are incredibly complex with a lot issues not identified until after many years of service - hence the Hundred's of AD's issued every year.

It's almost impossible to test everything in a complex system that has over 500,000 parts (albeit a lot of those fasteners).


That’s how I feel as well.

Most likely worse than perfect for any other aircraft, definitely ways better than MAX.
So far, prime max issue resulted in 100x crash rate compared to average, with multiple other issues popping up in the same area. It is pretty reasonable to expect another bunch of issues leading to 10x increase of crash rate over background. The fishing expedition is looking for those right now. I wouldn't question validity of any of these finds, sloppy max design is a medical fact by now.
 
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PW100
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, January 2020

Mon Jan 06, 2020 5:18 pm

XRAYretired wrote:
oschkosch wrote:
LondonAero wrote:
That 360 number is not close to correct. CAE said on their November conference call regaring SIMs (see below). So by the March 2020 (end of their FY) they will likely have 18 delivered. And they have the vast majority of share. Maybe there are 360 in total for 737NG's - but not MAX.
"5 orders to date and delivered 9 deliveries to date on the 737 MAX and expect a similar number in the second half as well".

correct! this was in November 2019: https://business.financialpost.com/tran ... -up-demand
The company said it has captured the majority of the market share for Boeing 737 Max simulators, stating it has already sold 48 and delivered 19 to date, with plans to deliver nine more this fiscal year.

Apologies to all. Would seem that the report at the time was probably in error but not disputed at the time.
https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/busin ... 15311.html


I suspect the 360 number represents the worldwide fleet of 737 NG sims (plus perhaps a handful of new-delivered MAX sims). This number seems reasonable for the NG fleet and number of operators.

Since the Max pilots initially only needed a 90 minutes iPad course, one could similarly extend the line of thinking to the sims: 360 NG sims were supposed to be upgraded to Max standard by a 90 minutes job of loading a software patch, and placing Max placards on the outside . . .

Obviously, that will no longer be the case, and further sim updates would be required (potentially also hardware to mimic actual cockpit changes from NG to Max).
It is to be expected that Max simulators will require re-certification.
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Interested
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding News and Reference Thread 2020

Mon Jan 06, 2020 5:37 pm

morrisond wrote:
ikolkyo wrote:
I wonder how other aircraft types would fair if they too were a massive deep review.


Probably not well either. Aircraft are incredibly complex with a lot issues not identified until after many years of service - hence the Hundred's of AD's issued every year.

It's almost impossible to test everything in a complex system that has over 500,000 parts (albeit a lot of those fasteners).


I thought grandfathering was supposed to prevent stuff like this happening in the first place
 
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, January 2020

Mon Jan 06, 2020 5:39 pm

All the NG Sims will need new smaller trim wheels instead of the existing ones won't they?

A crucial part of any MCAS training surely??

And surely they can't work on any changes to the Sims until the Max is approved to fly and they know what changes need making to the Sims hardware and software

So nobody can learn anything in the meantime in the Max sims

And any new pilots in training who might have learnt to fly Max planes can only learn how to fly NG planes etc
 
Cdydatzigs
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, January 2020

Mon Jan 06, 2020 5:43 pm

Zaf wrote:
It looks like those 800 planes should be scrapped and a clean sheet plane should be designed.


If they could, they would. At this point, the MAX might be a civilian equivalent to the F-35 in that it's now too big to fail.
 
beechnut
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, January 2020

Mon Jan 06, 2020 5:57 pm

mjoelnir wrote:
It seems to just lousy not North American airlines have invested in MAX simulators, like for example Ethiopian Airlines.


Air Canada reportedly has a MAX simulator, the only airline-owned one in North America.

Beech
 
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, January 2020

Mon Jan 06, 2020 6:08 pm

beechnut wrote:
mjoelnir wrote:
It seems to just lousy not North American airlines have invested in MAX simulators, like for example Ethiopian Airlines.


Air Canada reportedly has a MAX simulator, the only airline-owned one in North America.

Beech


American also has a fully operational MAX simulator in DFW. I know two AA pilots who have done their recurrent training in the MAX simulator recently.
 
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding News and Reference Thread 2020

Mon Jan 06, 2020 6:10 pm

ikolkyo wrote:
I wonder how other aircraft types would fair if they too were a massive deep review.


Probably less than 100%, but then there are reasons why MAX is being subjected to this level of scrutiny.
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par13del
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, January 2020

Mon Jan 06, 2020 6:18 pm

beechnut wrote:
mjoelnir wrote:
It seems to just lousy not North American airlines have invested in MAX simulators, like for example Ethiopian Airlines.


Air Canada reportedly has a MAX simulator, the only airline-owned one in North America.

Beech

Is this the same Air Canada who got exemptions from the authorities in Canada to allow MAX flights for their training instructors?
 
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, January 2020

Mon Jan 06, 2020 6:43 pm

Cdydatzigs wrote:
Zaf wrote:
It looks like those 800 planes should be scrapped and a clean sheet plane should be designed.

If they could, they would. At this point, the MAX might be a civilian equivalent to the F-35 in that it's now too big to fail.

I've also used this same analogy recently, but am not sure it's a great fit.

The F-35 was built to governmental specifications (US and partners) and with government money. I think it's fair to say that it is a national imperative of the US and the F35 partner nations. The program has encompassed the defense industries and government labs so intensely there really is/was no viable Plan B. The fall back to an earlier generation of designs is not viable, the adversaries have made their own advancements in the decades of development and the older designs are very limited in their usefulness.

MAX was built to commercial specifications (Boeing and partners) with commercial funding (I'm intentionally not going down the subsidy rat hole, it adds nothing to this specific discussion IMO). I think MAX is economically significant to the nations that host Boeing and its partners, but I would not say it is a national imperative.

Banks were too big to fail because if the world financial system was taken down life as we know it would take a big hit. A constricted aviation system is a problem, but nothing as big as no longer being able to use money.

If MAX never flies again, Boeing and its partners take a HUGE hit, but life as we know it goes on. Air travel gets scaled back. The value of used NG goes up even more than it has. A lot of CFM56 engines get rebuilds. The system would adjust. Presumably Boeing would come up with a replacement, but IMO even that isn't an absolute requirement. Some other player or combination of players would fill the void. As suggested earlier in this thread maybe Boeing does use such a scenario to beg the USG to underwrite a total reboot of BCA, but LM and others would have something to say about that. Point is, air travelers would take a hit, but life in general would go on.

MAX is only too big to fail when you look at it from a Boeing Commercial Airplanes point of view, and one could even make an argument they may be able to get by via just selling their other airliner and freighter products after a big restructure.

This doesn't contradict earlier things I've posted. Boeing's interests are by far best served IMO by doing everything they can do to get MAX back in service. Whatever problems that involves are much smaller problems than the ones created by dumping MAX and figuring out what to do next after you've burned all the MAX partners and all the MAX customers by dumping MAX.
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Interested
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, January 2020

Mon Jan 06, 2020 6:59 pm

Boeing should celebrate the fact this catastrophic risk in the wiring has been identified and highlighted by the regulators BEFORE it had the chance to cause a fatal crash. A crash through another failing by Boeing would have been final nail in the coffin for Max. Let's be honest. So it's short term bad news but long term good news for Boeing.
 
morrisond
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding News and Reference Thread 2020

Mon Jan 06, 2020 7:02 pm

kalvado wrote:
ikolkyo wrote:
morrisond wrote:

Probably not well either. Aircraft are incredibly complex with a lot issues not identified until after many years of service - hence the Hundred's of AD's issued every year.

It's almost impossible to test everything in a complex system that has over 500,000 parts (albeit a lot of those fasteners).


That’s how I feel as well.

Most likely worse than perfect for any other aircraft, definitely ways better than MAX.
So far, prime max issue resulted in 100x crash rate compared to average, with multiple other issues popping up in the same area. It is pretty reasonable to expect another bunch of issues leading to 10x increase of crash rate over background. The fishing expedition is looking for those right now. I wouldn't question validity of any of these finds, sloppy max design is a medical fact by now.


On what basis do you make this analysis that even with these issues fixed the MAX would have a crash rate 10x higher than anything else?

Airbus had 91 AD's added last year to the database, Boeing 51. The 737 NG has a lower crash rate than A320. After MCAS is fixed and with all this scrutiny one could make the argument that it would be even safer than the NG.
Last edited by morrisond on Mon Jan 06, 2020 7:24 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
SEU
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, January 2020

Mon Jan 06, 2020 7:34 pm

Interested wrote:
Boeing should celebrate the fact this catastrophic risk in the wiring has been identified and highlighted by the regulators BEFORE it had the chance to cause a fatal crash. A crash through another failing by Boeing would have been final nail in the coffin for Max. Let's be honest. So it's short term bad news but long term good news for Boeing.
/

I am all for criticising the MAX right now, but the wiring was a non story, it takes less than an hour to sort out.
 
kalvado
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, January 2020

Mon Jan 06, 2020 7:38 pm

SEU wrote:
Interested wrote:
Boeing should celebrate the fact this catastrophic risk in the wiring has been identified and highlighted by the regulators BEFORE it had the chance to cause a fatal crash. A crash through another failing by Boeing would have been final nail in the coffin for Max. Let's be honest. So it's short term bad news but long term good news for Boeing.
/

I am all for criticising the MAX right now, but the wiring was a non story, it takes less than an hour to sort out.

And MCAS fix was a two week job.
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bgm
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, January 2020

Mon Jan 06, 2020 7:45 pm

SEU wrote:
Interested wrote:
Boeing should celebrate the fact this catastrophic risk in the wiring has been identified and highlighted by the regulators BEFORE it had the chance to cause a fatal crash. A crash through another failing by Boeing would have been final nail in the coffin for Max. Let's be honest. So it's short term bad news but long term good news for Boeing.
/

I am all for criticising the MAX right now, but the wiring was a non story, it takes less than an hour to sort out.


The ease and speed of fixing it do not somehow make up for the fact that poor design put the aircraft at serious risk of crashing.
Really? Four more years of this?
 
Interested
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, January 2020

Mon Jan 06, 2020 7:50 pm

SEU wrote:
Interested wrote:
Boeing should celebrate the fact this catastrophic risk in the wiring has been identified and highlighted by the regulators BEFORE it had the chance to cause a fatal crash. A crash through another failing by Boeing would have been final nail in the coffin for Max. Let's be honest. So it's short term bad news but long term good news for Boeing.
/

I am all for criticising the MAX right now, but the wiring was a[photoid][/photoid] non story, it takes less than an hour to sort out.


And it takes the investigators of the FAA and until January 2020 to even realise it was a catastrophic risk to the safety of the plane?

When were Boeing planning to first discover and then highlight the problem and then fix it for the safety of all of us?

Never again let Boeing self regulate anything.
 
beechnut
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, January 2020

Mon Jan 06, 2020 7:56 pm

par13del wrote:
beechnut wrote:
mjoelnir wrote:
It seems to just lousy not North American airlines have invested in MAX simulators, like for example Ethiopian Airlines.


Air Canada reportedly has a MAX simulator, the only airline-owned one in North America.

Beech

Is this the same Air Canada who got exemptions from the authorities in Canada to allow MAX flights for their training instructors?


I'm not sure what you're point is. You realize that the simulator has not been upgraded yet for whatever modifications in MCAS programming might come out of the MAX recertification process, don't you? Moreover it was in compliance with federal regulations that require that check pilots have time on the real aircraft to keep current. If, like Westjet, Air Canada had the NG, they would have been able to carry out the training on the NG as (at least until now) the NG and MAX share a common type rating. As Air Canada had no NGs in its fleet, the only way to retain currency was on the MAX so TC granted an exemption.

Beech
 
oschkosch
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, January 2020

Mon Jan 06, 2020 7:57 pm

More compensation payments it seems! No details though.

https://www.seattletimes.com/business/a ... d-737-max/

Aeromexico says it has deal with Boeing on grounded 737 Max

Aeromexico has reached an agreement with Boeing on compensation over the global grounding of the 737 Max jet last year after two deadly crashes, the Mexican airline announced Monday. Aeromexico said in a statement that the terms of the agreement are confidential but it will “mitigate the costs derived from the temporary suspension of operations.” Aeromexico grounded its fleet of six 737 Max 8 jets on March 11, 2019.

Boeing’s board of directors ousted then-CEO Dennis Muilenburg on Dec. 23, after it became clear that regulators would not certify the grounded plane to fly again by year’s end, as he had hoped.
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par13del
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, January 2020

Mon Jan 06, 2020 8:05 pm

One interesting thing about all these compensation deals being announced, how is it that no one is saying that these airlines are now putting pressure on the FAA to RTS the a/c as soon as possible?
If you do not know how long the MAX will be down and you agree to a compensation deal, what are some of your options:
Agree to convert all your MAX a/c to the next thing Boeing is doing in the next 5 years.
Agree to convert all your MAX a/c to other a/c in the Boeing inventory
Agree a cancellation of your undelivered MAX a/c
Agree to a wording that says your compensation increases 5% for every month that the a/c remains grounded after Jan-2020

A number of deals have so far been reported, would love to speculate on a structure for compensation when the RTS is still unknown.
Last edited by par13del on Mon Jan 06, 2020 8:08 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, January 2020

Mon Jan 06, 2020 8:08 pm

Interested wrote:
Also do you think anyone at Boeing should still treat the FAA as the enemy and the bad guys or should they be grateful they are around to help them make this plane safer?

Why, Boeing identified this issue and advised the FAA, one has to wonder why they would have to do this when the FAA should have been digging under all the rocks to uncover such safety issue to make the a/c safer.
 
Interested
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, January 2020

Mon Jan 06, 2020 8:11 pm

par13del wrote:
Interested wrote:
Also do you think anyone at Boeing should still treat the FAA as the enemy and the bad guys or should they be grateful they are around to help them make this plane safer?

Why, Boeing identified this issue and advised the FAA, one has to wonder why they would have to do this when the FAA should have been digging under all the rocks to uncover such safety issue to make the a/c safer.


Is this a sarcastic reply or is it a genuine reply?
 
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par13del
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, January 2020

Mon Jan 06, 2020 8:22 pm

Interested wrote:
par13del wrote:
Interested wrote:
Also do you think anyone at Boeing should still treat the FAA as the enemy and the bad guys or should they be grateful they are around to help them make this plane safer?

Why, Boeing identified this issue and advised the FAA, one has to wonder why they would have to do this when the FAA should have been digging under all the rocks to uncover such safety issue to make the a/c safer.


Is this a sarcastic reply or is it a genuine reply?

Reports we have seen say Boeing identified the issue, not the FAA, so who is trying to make the a/c safer, Boeing or the FAA?
 
morrisond
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, January 2020

Mon Jan 06, 2020 8:23 pm

oschkosch wrote:
morrisond wrote:
scbriml wrote:

In fairness to Boeing, I’m sure I read that it was Boeing themselves that brought the wiring issue to the FAA’s attention.





While the chances of an issue might be remote and the fix somewhat simple, the FAA were sufficiently concerned, as reported upthread, to categorise the issue as “potentially catastrophic”. Of course, it also highlights more poor engineering by Boeing and a failure by the FAA to pick it up during certification.


Well you better not read this then or the other 90 AD's issued for Airbus aircraft last year.

https://ad.easa.europa.eu/ad/2019-0035R1
Bloody hell!!! Is it not possible to keep this thread about Boeing? Is it really soooooo difficult? Seriously?

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If someone is going to cite poor engineering by Boeing - there needs to be context - wiring issues like this are not Boeing only they are industry wide. Airliner's are very complex and not all things are caught in certification or design and hence why hundred's of AD's are issued every year.

Sorry if I'm destroying your spot to rant on Boeing with facts.
 
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par13del
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, January 2020

Mon Jan 06, 2020 8:27 pm

morrisond wrote:
The thing that will help Boeing improve safety the most will likely be the realization of how much this is costing them and not wanting to repeat it again.

Point there is that this has already happened on the 787 - battery, FUD - and so far it may and I say may have been an issue on the 777X with the failure during load test.
Any new build a/c by Boeing will not have the built in limitations being carried by the 737, they already have 2 new builds in recent times since the 737, so if the cost issue has not changed anything yet, I doubt it will on the 737, they will excuse them because of the built in limitations.
 
rheinwaldner
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, January 2020

Mon Jan 06, 2020 8:27 pm

Revelation wrote:
Whatever problems that involves are much smaller problems than the ones created by dumping MAX and figuring out what to do next after you've burned all the MAX partners and all the MAX customers by dumping MAX.

Didn't they already do 50% of that (burning all the MAX partners)?
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par13del
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, January 2020

Mon Jan 06, 2020 8:38 pm

rheinwaldner wrote:
Revelation wrote:
Whatever problems that involves are much smaller problems than the ones created by dumping MAX and figuring out what to do next after you've burned all the MAX partners and all the MAX customers by dumping MAX.

Didn't they already do 50% of that (burning all the MAX partners)?

Do you mean squeezing them for lower cost or halting production in Jan-2020?
 
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bgm
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, January 2020

Mon Jan 06, 2020 8:42 pm

majano wrote:
oschkosch wrote:
morrisond wrote:

Well you better not read this then or the other 90 AD's issued for Airbus aircraft last year.

https://ad.easa.europa.eu/ad/2019-0035R1
Bloody hell!!! Is it not possible to keep this thread about Boeing? Is it really soooooo difficult? Seriously?

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Said poster doesn't seem to understand airworthiness directives, or is simply just running out of distractions to throw around. Best to ignore him, but it's very difficult.


Well, it's a break from the 'blame the pilots' mantra he's been peddling since it happened.
Really? Four more years of this?
 
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scbriml
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, January 2020

Mon Jan 06, 2020 8:44 pm

par13del wrote:
Reports we have seen say Boeing identified the issue, not the FAA, so who is trying to make the a/c safer, Boeing or the FAA?


Hopefully both of them, since they both share most of the burden for MAX being where it is today.

But yes, since Boeing's internal process review appears to have discovered intra-company communications that have highlighted issues with MAX that weren't dealt with, they effectively grassed themselves to the FAA.

morrisond wrote:
If someone is going to cite poor engineering by Boeing - there needs to be context


The context is that it was poor original engineering by Boeing, apparently recognised and reported as such internally, but not acted upon. With Boeing and MAX certification under the microscope, they fessed up to the FAA. Now it has to be fixed on 800 planes.
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airboss787
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, January 2020

Mon Jan 06, 2020 9:26 pm

Hoping to see the MAX flying again this quarter. The issues are nearing the end and excited to fly on one once it is ready. Boeing needs this over soon and lets hope it does. They need the cash flow generated from this badly.
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oschkosch
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, January 2020

Mon Jan 06, 2020 9:29 pm

airboss787 wrote:
Hoping to see the MAX flying again this quarter. The issues are nearing the end and excited to fly on one once it is ready. Boeing needs this over soon and lets hope it does. They need the cash flow generated from this badly.
well actually no, we have been repeatedly informed by "well informed" persons, that Boeing has enough money, they don't need it.

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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, January 2020

Mon Jan 06, 2020 9:32 pm

rheinwaldner wrote:
Revelation wrote:
Whatever problems that involves are much smaller problems than the ones created by dumping MAX and figuring out what to do next after you've burned all the MAX partners and all the MAX customers by dumping MAX.

Didn't they already do 50% of that (burning all the MAX partners)?

We had media reports earlier in this thread saying that Boeing would be supporting partners throughout the production stop, although it was not specified how deep/far such support goes, it is being evaluated on a case by case basis. We just recently read that CFM will still be making on average 70 LEAP-1B per month in 2020 so it seems they are getting a lot of support. It simply may be due to contractual obligation or some explicit post-MAX negotiation, this is not being announced.

In any case I'm sure the partners feel burned as do the airline customers do but I'd suggest they are in similar situations rather than different. Some have workarounds to reduce the pain, others do not. It's clear Boeing is going to be dealing with compensation issues for a long time to come.
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airboss787
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, January 2020

Mon Jan 06, 2020 9:34 pm

oschkosch wrote:
airboss787 wrote:
Hoping to see the MAX flying again this quarter. The issues are nearing the end and excited to fly on one once it is ready. Boeing needs this over soon and lets hope it does. They need the cash flow generated from this badly.
well actually no, we have been repeatedly informed by "well informed" persons, that Boeing has enough money, they don't need it.

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Yes, I agree Boeing has enough money and they have a huge line of credit available if needed. But that does not mean that it is okay for them to lose 500 aircraft worth of cash to get held up. So even if they don't need it yet, they would definitely want it because there are a lot of overhead costs right now that they have to pay that they wouldn't have to had they had that cash flow situation running smoothly.
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beechnut
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, January 2020

Mon Jan 06, 2020 9:39 pm

par13del wrote:
One interesting thing about all these compensation deals being announced, how is it that no one is saying that these airlines are now putting pressure on the FAA to RTS the a/c as soon as possible?
If you do not know how long the MAX will be down and you agree to a compensation deal, what are some of your options:
Agree to convert all your MAX a/c to the next thing Boeing is doing in the next 5 years.
Agree to convert all your MAX a/c to other a/c in the Boeing inventory
Agree a cancellation of your undelivered MAX a/c
Agree to a wording that says your compensation increases 5% for every month that the a/c remains grounded after Jan-2020

A number of deals have so far been reported, would love to speculate on a structure for compensation when the RTS is still unknown.


I'm only guessing but I suppose the deal could read something like $X per month of downtime. I can't imagine an airline settling on a fixed amount now, when the RTS service date is unknown.

Beech
 
oschkosch
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, January 2020

Mon Jan 06, 2020 9:46 pm

par13del wrote:
If you do not know how long the MAX will be down and you agree to a compensation deal, what are some of your options:
Agree to convert all your MAX a/c to the next thing Boeing is doing in the next 5 years.


My money is on that. Boeing will potentially cancel the max and hope that they can convince max customers to buy the next wahtevertheywillcallit plane instead.

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Canuck600
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, January 2020

Mon Jan 06, 2020 9:53 pm

The way I read it is that Boeing found the issue after a FAA ordered review.

par13del wrote:
Interested wrote:
par13del wrote:
Why, Boeing identified this issue and advised the FAA, one has to wonder why they would have to do this when the FAA should have been digging under all the rocks to uncover such safety issue to make the a/c safer.


Is this a sarcastic reply or is it a genuine reply?

Reports we have seen say Boeing identified the issue, not the FAA, so who is trying to make the a/c safer, Boeing or the FAA?
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