Moderators: jsumali2, richierich, ua900, PanAm_DC10, hOMSaR
darrellpearce wrote:ZK-MZD is en route to NZ. Leaving only ZK-MZE, ZK-MZF to come. Unsure as to the SXI for ZK-MZD as well. Happy new year to you all as well. Enjoy 2020.
NZ516 wrote:Air Kiribati might start AKL flights with their new A220 has been discussed on another thread.
NZ516 wrote:On the domestic front we might see Air Chathams start AKL to Masterton service using the metro as recently they have up graded the Whakatane route to the SAAB. So the metro is now spare.
NZ516 wrote:Origin Air are back using their own aircraft so could expect them to return to NPL and NPE as well a new city probably Hamilton. They are waiting for the terminal to be complete at NPL first. They lost their own ground handler (Swissport) when JQ pulled out so this needs a replacement.
VirginFlyer wrote:NZ516 wrote:Origin Air are back using their own aircraft so could expect them to return to NPL and NPE as well a new city probably Hamilton. They are waiting for the terminal to be complete at NPL first. They lost their own ground handler (Swissport) when JQ pulled out so this needs a replacement.
They could just do what Air Chathams did in Auckland in 2018 and Kāpiti, Whakatāne and Whanganui in 2019, and set up their own ground handling operation.
V/F
Masterton’s runway length of 1205m is going to be a limiting factor here. That’s 75m shorter than Whakatāne. I believe Eagle had payload limitations on the 1900 out of Masterton, and although I’m not very familiar with the 1900 I believe it has a better runway performance than the Metro. If Air Chathams take this route on (which I think would be great), my guess is they would use a Saab
NZ516 wrote:On the domestic front we might see Air Chathams start AKL to Masterton service using the metro as recently they have up graded the Whakatane route to the SAAB. So the metro is now spare.
DavidByrne wrote:The Saab is only being used on weekends to WHK, so the Metroliner is not actually spare and available for MRO. Quite apart from the airport limitations at MRO. I can't see 3C being interested in flying a clearly marginal route unless the runway limitations are removed first.
NZ516 wrote:They have more than one. Air Chathams has a fairly substantial fleet of 16 aircraft with 4 Metros so could open a new route with not to much trouble. Runway issues aside;
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Air_Chathams#Fleet
NZ516 wrote:Masterton’s runway length of 1205m is going to be a limiting factor here. That’s 75m shorter than Whakatāne. I believe Eagle had payload limitations on the 1900 out of Masterton, and although I’m not very familiar with the 1900 I believe it has a better runway performance than the Metro. If Air Chathams take this route on (which I think would be great), my guess is they would use a Saab
Just a slight correction MRO 's main runway is 1250 m but very short and I believe is very narrow which is a problem as well. I think the Saab might be too big to begin with so a Metro at 19 seats could be good for the launch period. Whakatane has just had their runway extended thanks to the Regional development fund be good if Masterton could be done as well. Councils can't really afford to invest in their own airports these days unless they have an operator using it. to help with the finance payments through landing fees. Many airports face this issue.
Here is a story from the Hearld last year:
End of the runway? Struggling regional airports could get Govt bailout
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/arti ... d=12248142
NZ516 wrote:DavidByrne wrote:The Saab is only being used on weekends to WHK, so the Metroliner is not actually spare and available for MRO. Quite apart from the airport limitations at MRO. I can't see 3C being interested in flying a clearly marginal route unless the runway limitations are removed first.
They have more than one. Air Chathams has a fairly substantial fleet of 16 aircraft with 4 Metros so could open a new route with not to much trouble. Runway issues aside;
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Air_Chathams#Fleet
ZK-NBT wrote:The year ahead International
NZ I’d expect more moving around of the long haul fleet to maximise utilisation, this will be the case in some cases for the International A320/321 aswell, not sure I can see any new destinations, maybe finally CBR or HBT?
I can’t say that I expect to much from other carriers, there will be some changes if aircraft but nothing sticks out to much other than what’s been announced.
Maybe VN SGN-AKL,
hopefully QF PER-AKL
KE return to CHC atleast on a scheduled seasonal basis
CI non stop TPE-AKL, they said NZ is difficult from a utilisation perspective, it is but will they give it a go? Either morning in and out like 0900-1030 but not the best connections ex TPE, or arrive 1700 depart 2300, long ground time
1250m is the take off distance with the starter extension on 24. 1205 is the take off distance for 06. Either way less than a Metro needs to get out with 18 passengers and bags (of Air Chathams three Metros, only ZK-CIC has a 19th seat, and that is hardly used). Compare it to WHK which has a strip length of 1280 and a takeoff distance available of 1400m. Now consider the distance AKL-MRO is twice AKL-WHK. Simply put, it is not a Metro route.
Motorhussy wrote:ZK-NBT wrote:The year ahead International
NZ I’d expect more moving around of the long haul fleet to maximise utilisation, this will be the case in some cases for the International A320/321 aswell, not sure I can see any new destinations, maybe finally CBR or HBT?
I can’t say that I expect to much from other carriers, there will be some changes if aircraft but nothing sticks out to much other than what’s been announced.
Maybe VN SGN-AKL,
hopefully QF PER-AKL
KE return to CHC atleast on a scheduled seasonal basis
CI non stop TPE-AKL, they said NZ is difficult from a utilisation perspective, it is but will they give it a go? Either morning in and out like 0900-1030 but not the best connections ex TPE, or arrive 1700 depart 2300, long ground time
When do QF get their A321xlr fleet? Could see them doing PER-AKL twice daily with them which would gazump NZ.
ZK-NBT wrote:Motorhussy wrote:ZK-NBT wrote:The year ahead International
NZ I’d expect more moving around of the long haul fleet to maximise utilisation, this will be the case in some cases for the International A320/321 aswell, not sure I can see any new destinations, maybe finally CBR or HBT?
I can’t say that I expect to much from other carriers, there will be some changes if aircraft but nothing sticks out to much other than what’s been announced.
Maybe VN SGN-AKL,
hopefully QF PER-AKL
KE return to CHC atleast on a scheduled seasonal basis
CI non stop TPE-AKL, they said NZ is difficult from a utilisation perspective, it is but will they give it a go? Either morning in and out like 0900-1030 but not the best connections ex TPE, or arrive 1700 depart 2300, long ground time
When do QF get their A321xlr fleet? Could see them doing PER-AKL twice daily with them which would gazump NZ.
I’m not sure anything is confirmed re QF getting A321s, 2 weekly seasonal would be a start, I guess the costs could allow daily atleast year round. Not sure about 2 daily, you would be looking at 350-400 seats with a J, Y configuration of 12J 180Y or so, maybe a few more J.
Gasman wrote:ZK-NBT wrote:Motorhussy wrote:
When do QF get their A321xlr fleet? Could see them doing PER-AKL twice daily with them which would gazump NZ.
I’m not sure anything is confirmed re QF getting A321s, 2 weekly seasonal would be a start, I guess the costs could allow daily atleast year round. Not sure about 2 daily, you would be looking at 350-400 seats with a J, Y configuration of 12J 180Y or so, maybe a few more J.
Indeed. Firstly, just not that many people travel to Perth. That's why over the years it's been such an on again, off again route. You get the feeling with PER that it does have some positives for the airlines, but overall they'd prefer it didn't exist. It's like PMR in that regard. Secondly, there's a special place in hell reserved for the people who gave single aisle aircraft AKL-PER kind of range. While QF are having fun printing money on the Tasman with their 738's; I can't see then doing the same to us with a densely configured A321 between AKL and PER.
NZ6 wrote:Gasman wrote:ZK-NBT wrote:
I’m not sure anything is confirmed re QF getting A321s, 2 weekly seasonal would be a start, I guess the costs could allow daily atleast year round. Not sure about 2 daily, you would be looking at 350-400 seats with a J, Y configuration of 12J 180Y or so, maybe a few more J.
Indeed. Firstly, just not that many people travel to Perth. That's why over the years it's been such an on again, off again route. You get the feeling with PER that it does have some positives for the airlines, but overall they'd prefer it didn't exist. It's like PMR in that regard. Secondly, there's a special place in hell reserved for the people who gave single aisle aircraft AKL-PER kind of range. While QF are having fun printing money on the Tasman with their 738's; I can't see then doing the same to us with a densely configured A321 between AKL and PER.
Are we talking about PER, Perth, Perth, Western Australia? Since 2000 there's been something like a 250%+ increase in passengers. Gone for 4-5 per week in peak to 10p/w plus 2x CHCPER but also gone from the 230 763 to the 320+ seat 787/772. We've seen QF enter but leave for operational reasons also, so the not many people travel to Perth statement simply can't be true.
Secondly many expect QF to re-enter at some point and we've discussed before, the merits in EK flying over PER.
I do agree the schedule hasn't been 100% stable and it's a route where adjustments have been made to help make changes elsewhere in the network for an array of reasons.
As for the QF A321XLR, it has merits. I just think QF may have other priorities for it before PER-AKL.
NZ516 wrote:There is a good list on 3rd Level NZ on predictions for 2020 and the comments at the bottom are interesting:
http://3rdlevelnz.blogspot.com/2020/01/ ... -2020.html
One thing of interest is will Air Chathams get more ATRs to replace the last Convairs as their retirement is almost due. Air NZ has still 5 waiting for a buyer. The 737 freighter for them won't be coming now that the runway at CHT wont get upgraded. He also mentions about Masterton but no detail.
ZK-NBT wrote:The QF group ordered 36 A321XLR I believe, 18 are going to JQ it’s believed to replace some 788 flying to DPS not sure where else yet maybe CNS-Japan? What happens to those 788s is the question, do they return to QF or do JQ have other routes lined up or are they sold?
It was said QF were looking at increasing AKL-PER to 4 weekly before the problems with PER airport. As to a double daily A321, they might guzump NZ in losing money, that would be close to 400 seats a day.
I always thought EK might do AKL-PER back when they started AKL, and maybe they would added it if they were allowed more Tasman flights.
It seems to have done
NZ6 wrote:NZ516 wrote:There is a good list on 3rd Level NZ on predictions for 2020 and the comments at the bottom are interesting:
NZ owns this but is also trying to balance frequency with efficiency. There's still a couple of ports out there where the Q300 is arguably the wrong aircraft and the question is how long does or will NZ hold onto these and with the Q300 fleet coming towards the backend of their lifespan what does the future look like? What will the replacement be and does that work for these ports? Does this offer 3C or someone else another bit of the market?
NZ6 wrote:ZK-NBT wrote:The QF group ordered 36 A321XLR I believe, 18 are going to JQ it’s believed to replace some 788 flying to DPS not sure where else yet maybe CNS-Japan? What happens to those 788s is the question, do they return to QF or do JQ have other routes lined up or are they sold?
It was said QF were looking at increasing AKL-PER to 4 weekly before the problems with PER airport. As to a double daily A321, they might guzump NZ in losing money, that would be close to 400 seats a day.
I always thought EK might do AKL-PER back when they started AKL, and maybe they would added it if they were allowed more Tasman flights.
It seems to have done
I can't imagine JQ flying AKL-PER before QF but that's not completely unrealistic either.
Assuming QF were to do it. They're only getting 18 of the frames and I'm not sure of the 36, which ones QF get vs JQ and what the delivery window is. Basically, when do QF start receiving them.
As I said, I agree the A332XLR has its merits on AKL-PER, I'm just suggesting QF may have plans to use them elsewhere first and that could be freeing up a 787 elsewhere which could be used into AKL.
NZ6 wrote:Gasman wrote:ZK-NBT wrote:
I’m not sure anything is confirmed re QF getting A321s, 2 weekly seasonal would be a start, I guess the costs could allow daily atleast year round. Not sure about 2 daily, you would be looking at 350-400 seats with a J, Y configuration of 12J 180Y or so, maybe a few more J.
Indeed. Firstly, just not that many people travel to Perth. That's why over the years it's been such an on again, off again route. You get the feeling with PER that it does have some positives for the airlines, but overall they'd prefer it didn't exist. It's like PMR in that regard. Secondly, there's a special place in hell reserved for the people who gave single aisle aircraft AKL-PER kind of range. While QF are having fun printing money on the Tasman with their 738's; I can't see then doing the same to us with a densely configured A321 between AKL and PER.
Are we talking about PER, Perth, Perth, Western Australia? Since 2000 there's been something like a 250%+ increase in passengers. Gone for 4-5 per week in peak to 10p/w plus 2x CHCPER but also gone from the 230 763 to the 320+ seat 787/772. We've seen QF enter but leave for operational reasons also, so the not many people travel to Perth statement simply can't be true.
Secondly many expect QF to re-enter at some point and we've discussed before, the merits in EK flying over PER.
I do agree the schedule hasn't been 100% stable and it's a route where adjustments have been made to help make changes elsewhere in the network for an array of reasons.
As for the QF A321XLR, it has merits. I just think QF may have other priorities for it before PER-AKL.
ZK-NBT wrote:The year ahead International
NZ I’d expect more moving around of the long haul fleet to maximise utilisation, this will be the case in some cases for the International A320/321 aswell, not sure I can see any new destinations, maybe finally CBR or HBT?
I can’t say that I expect to much from other carriers, there will be some changes if aircraft but nothing sticks out to much other than what’s been announced.
Maybe VN SGN-AKL,
hopefully QF PER-AKL
KE return to CHC atleast on a scheduled seasonal basis
CI non stop TPE-AKL, they said NZ is difficult from a utilisation perspective, it is but will they give it a go? Either morning in and out like 0900-1030 but not the best connections ex TPE, or arrive 1700 depart 2300, long ground time
ZK-NBT wrote:CI non stop TPE-AKL, they said NZ is difficult from a utilisation perspective, it is but will they give it a go? Either morning in and out like 0900-1030 but not the best connections ex TPE, or arrive 1700 depart 2300, long ground time
NZ516 wrote:ZK-NBT wrote:The year ahead International
NZ I’d expect more moving around of the long haul fleet to maximise utilisation, this will be the case in some cases for the International A320/321 aswell, not sure I can see any new destinations, maybe finally CBR or HBT?
I can’t say that I expect to much from other carriers, there will be some changes if aircraft but nothing sticks out to much other than what’s been announced.
Maybe VN SGN-AKL,
hopefully QF PER-AKL
KE return to CHC atleast on a scheduled seasonal basis
CI non stop TPE-AKL, they said NZ is difficult from a utilisation perspective, it is but will they give it a go? Either morning in and out like 0900-1030 but not the best connections ex TPE, or arrive 1700 depart 2300, long ground time
I like your kind of thinking for all. KE hopefully will do well enough to return to CHC next summer. Not sure about VN would be great to see them here but not expect they will go to Brisbane first. And if any new international expansion from NZ will likely be short haul only another Australian destination as most likely as the Pacific is already well covered. Could NZ make a deal with Canberra airport to get it a viable financial operation to start 3 per week service this is the challenge to overcome in my opinion.
GW54 wrote:Having flown on QF's 738's and 'enjoyed' the lack of leg room on what is basically a domestic aircraft I will be using SQ going forward.
Gasman wrote:NZ6 wrote:Gasman wrote:Indeed. Firstly, just not that many people travel to Perth. That's why over the years it's been such an on again, off again route.
Are we talking about PER, Perth, Perth, Western Australia? Since 2000 there's been something like a 250%+ increase in passengers. Gone for 4-5 per week in peak to 10p/w plus 2x CHCPER but also gone from the 230 763 to the 320+ seat 787/772. We've seen QF enter but leave for operational reasons also, so the not many people travel to Perth statement simply can't be true..
Not sure where you get your 250% figure from, but assuming it's true that it's roughly inline with the global increase in air travel over the same period - so on that basis PER is simply holding its own.
Regardless, I don't see any airline offering either A321 flights or twice daily flights on any metal in the next decade. Even if mining picks up again.
zkncj wrote:With there already 7x A321NEOs in the works for domestic coming over the next few years. How about an bit of an domestic shake up for the q300 replacement.
Could see something like:
7x additional 72-600
14x a220-300s (7x replacement for Q300s, 7x from 2025 for the remaining A320CEOs).
Effectively using some of the current ATR’s to replace the Q300 flights, while upgrading some ATR flights to the a220 eg AKL-NSN, WLG-CHC, CHC-ZQN.
Making the new late 2020 fleet to be made up of
a321NEO - 230seats
a220-300 - 130seats
ATR 72-600 - 70seats (surely NZ will add some more seats soon, remember the good old days of 66 seats)
ZK-NBT wrote:zkncj wrote:With there already 7x A321NEOs in the works for domestic coming over the next few years. How about an bit of an domestic shake up for the q300 replacement.
Could see something like:
7x additional 72-600
14x a220-300s (7x replacement for Q300s, 7x from 2025 for the remaining A320CEOs).
Effectively using some of the current ATR’s to replace the Q300 flights, while upgrading some ATR flights to the a220 eg AKL-NSN, WLG-CHC, CHC-ZQN.
Making the new late 2020 fleet to be made up of
a321NEO - 230seats
a220-300 - 130seats
ATR 72-600 - 70seats (surely NZ will add some more seats soon, remember the good old days of 66 seats)
So instead of a gap from 68-171 seats on the ATR A320 the gap has moved to 130-230 seats on the A220, A321. Cost is the issue surely here so we could end up with say 14 A321 with 230 seats, 14 A220 with 130 seats, that’s 28 jets up from 20 domestic today A320s with 171 seats.
Admittedly the A321 is a bit big for the likes of DUD imo. I guess it will be interesting to see what plays out, the current domestic A320s AFAIK are only oldest 7 years OXA, with the 4 older leases ones OAB, OJQ, R, S and 3 international ones being replaced by A321s from 2021.
NZ6 wrote:Gasman wrote:NZ6 wrote:Since 2000 there's been something like a 250%+ increase in passengers.
Not sure where you get your 250% figure from, but assuming it's true that it's roughly inline with the global increase in air travel over the same period - so on that basis PER is simply holding its own.
Regardless, I don't see any airline offering either A321 flights or twice daily flights on any metal in the next decade. Even if mining picks up again.
At home on holidays
NZ6 wrote:was just a blind ballpark number based on the significant increase in available seats in the market.
NZ6 wrote:Clearly the, "not that many people travel to Perth" statement is a bit of a wild and misleading comment.
ZK-NBT wrote:zkncj wrote:With there already 7x A321NEOs in the works for domestic coming over the next few years. How about an bit of an domestic shake up for the q300 replacement.
Could see something like:
7x additional 72-600
14x a220-300s (7x replacement for Q300s, 7x from 2025 for the remaining A320CEOs).
Effectively using some of the current ATR’s to replace the Q300 flights, while upgrading some ATR flights to the a220 eg AKL-NSN, WLG-CHC, CHC-ZQN.
Making the new late 2020 fleet to be made up of
a321NEO - 230seats
a220-300 - 130seats
ATR 72-600 - 70seats (surely NZ will add some more seats soon, remember the good old days of 66 seats)
So instead of a gap from 68-171 seats on the ATR A320 the gap has moved to 130-230 seats on the A220, A321. Cost is the issue surely here so we could end up with say 14 A321 with 230 seats, 14 A220 with 130 seats, that’s 28 jets up from 20 domestic today A320s with 171 seats.
Admittedly the A321 is a bit big for the likes of DUD imo. I guess it will be interesting to see what plays out, the current domestic A320s AFAIK are only oldest 7 years OXA, with the 4 older leases ones OAB, OJQ, R, S and 3 international ones being replaced by A321s from 2021.
While Sounds Air have withdrawn from this service they have stated there will be a new route this year.
77west wrote:IIRCZK-NBT wrote:zkncj wrote:With there already 7x A321NEOs in the works for domestic coming over the next few years. How about an bit of an domestic shake up for the q300 replacement.
Could see something like:
7x additional 72-600
14x a220-300s (7x replacement for Q300s, 7x from 2025 for the remaining A320CEOs).
Effectively using some of the current ATR’s to replace the Q300 flights, while upgrading some ATR flights to the a220 eg AKL-NSN, WLG-CHC, CHC-ZQN.
Making the new late 2020 fleet to be made up of
a321NEO - 230seats
a220-300 - 130seats
ATR 72-600 - 70seats (surely NZ will add some more seats soon, remember the good old days of 66 seats)
So instead of a gap from 68-171 seats on the ATR A320 the gap has moved to 130-230 seats on the A220, A321. Cost is the issue surely here so we could end up with say 14 A321 with 230 seats, 14 A220 with 130 seats, that’s 28 jets up from 20 domestic today A320s with 171 seats.
Admittedly the A321 is a bit big for the likes of DUD imo. I guess it will be interesting to see what plays out, the current domestic A320s AFAIK are only oldest 7 years OXA, with the 4 older leases ones OAB, OJQ, R, S and 3 international ones being replaced by A321s from 2021.
I was under the impression that the A321 was also bit of a stretch for ZQN on rotation limits; or is that only on intl flights? I still think the A220 could be a really good choice not only for domestic but certain regional routes as well. Domestically with A220 there are plenty of existing as well as some possible new routes. Think, HLZ-ZQN (lots of rich dairy farmers taking the kids skiing) WLG-WRE (might be a stretch in terms of demand)
Zkpilot wrote:77west wrote:IIRCZK-NBT wrote:
So instead of a gap from 68-171 seats on the ATR A320 the gap has moved to 130-230 seats on the A220, A321. Cost is the issue surely here so we could end up with say 14 A321 with 230 seats, 14 A220 with 130 seats, that’s 28 jets up from 20 domestic today A320s with 171 seats.
Admittedly the A321 is a bit big for the likes of DUD imo. I guess it will be interesting to see what plays out, the current domestic A320s AFAIK are only oldest 7 years OXA, with the 4 older leases ones OAB, OJQ, R, S and 3 international ones being replaced by A321s from 2021.
I was under the impression that the A321 was also bit of a stretch for ZQN on rotation limits; or is that only on intl flights? I still think the A220 could be a really good choice not only for domestic but certain regional routes as well. Domestically with A220 there are plenty of existing as well as some possible new routes. Think, HLZ-ZQN (lots of rich dairy farmers taking the kids skiing) WLG-WRE (might be a stretch in terms of demand)
ZQN for A321 runs into takeoff weight limits, gate length limits, turn around time, passenger gate room limits, engine out/RNP limits.
NZ has taken it in as a trial but only half loads.
NZ516 wrote:Origin Air to resume Nelson to Wellington route with fares at a reasonable $69 one way.. Filling a void now that Jetstar has gone:
http://3rdlevelnz.blogspot.com/2020/01/ ... oming.html
Gasman wrote:NZ516 wrote:Origin Air to resume Nelson to Wellington route with fares at a reasonable $69 one way.. Filling a void now that Jetstar has gone:
http://3rdlevelnz.blogspot.com/2020/01/ ... oming.html
That price surely can't be sustained........
NZ516 wrote:They will have to manage it just the way NZ mangers it's sale processes once the cheapest seats are all sold the highest ones will then be next and so forth until the flight is full on any particular day.