Welcome to New Zealand Aviation Thread January 2020. Please continue to add your comments below

Link to last thread

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1435977&start=300

ZK-MZD is en route to NZ. Leaving only ZK-MZE, ZK-MZF to come. Unsure as to the SXI for ZK-MZD as well. Happy new year to you all as well. Enjoy 2020.

darrellpearce wrote:

ZK-MZD is en route to NZ. Leaving only ZK-MZE, ZK-MZF to come. Unsure as to the SXI for ZK-MZD as well. Happy new year to you all as well. Enjoy 2020.

MZD is being flown to CHC by Southern Cross International as SXI1955, and is due to arrive at 8:30pm on Sunday 5th January.

NZ135/136 AKL-BNE has been an A320/321 on Dec 30th and Jan 1st. First time in a long time I’ve seen narrowbodies on this particular service. Possibly a swap somewhere, RAR has had 77Ws, not uncommon, possibly 789 RR issues as well.

Very strange swap for NZ135 indeed and I thought OKT could have been used as one day it arrived from LAX and waited and finally went back to LAX at night.

Predictions for the year ahead anyone here are mine

Air Kiribati might start AKL flights with their new A220 has been discussed on another thread.
On the domestic front we might see Air Chathams start AKL to Masterton service using the metro as recently they have up graded the Whakatane route to the SAAB. So the metro is now spare.
Origin Air are back using their own aircraft so could expect them to return to NPL and NPE as well a new city probably Hamilton. They are waiting for the terminal to be complete at NPL first. They lost their own ground handler (Swissport) when JQ pulled out so this needs a replacement.
Sounds Air will drop Napier soon and they have taken delivery of another PC12 so they could open up a new route later this year.
Air NZ could add another AKL-IVC flight for TUE to make it 6 per week
Don't see any other route change with JQ they have done enough cuts last year.

..

NZ516 wrote:

Air Kiribati might start AKL flights with their new A220 has been discussed on another thread.

It’s an Embraer E190-E2 they have (Air Vanuatu is the the airline in our region getting the A220). But yes will be interesting to see what happens here.

NZ516 wrote:

On the domestic front we might see Air Chathams start AKL to Masterton service using the metro as recently they have up graded the Whakatane route to the SAAB. So the metro is now spare.

Masterton’s runway length of 1205m is going to be a limiting factor here. That’s 75m shorter than Whakatāne. I believe Eagle had payload limitations on the 1900 out of Masterton, and although I’m not very familiar with the 1900 I believe it has a better runway performance than the Metro. If Air Chathams take this route on (which I think would be great), my guess is they would use a Saab.

NZ516 wrote:

Origin Air are back using their own aircraft so could expect them to return to NPL and NPE as well a new city probably Hamilton. They are waiting for the terminal to be complete at NPL first. They lost their own ground handler (Swissport) when JQ pulled out so this needs a replacement.

They could just do what Air Chathams did in Auckland in 2018 and Kāpiti, Whakatāne and Whanganui in 2019, and set up their own ground handling operation.

V/F

VirginFlyer wrote:

NZ516 wrote:

Origin Air are back using their own aircraft so could expect them to return to NPL and NPE as well a new city probably Hamilton. They are waiting for the terminal to be complete at NPL first. They lost their own ground handler (Swissport) when JQ pulled out so this needs a replacement.

They could just do what Air Chathams did in Auckland in 2018 and Kāpiti, Whakatāne and Whanganui in 2019, and set up their own ground handling operation.

V/F

This is exactly what they are planning on doing, they expect to have their own staff trained to coincide with the March terminal opening.

The new terminal can't come soon enough, even with the seasonal summer cuts the place is still heaving with arrivals and departures all colliding with one another.

Speaking of BNE the evening flight ex AKL with the aircraft overnighting will change to an early morning ex AKL with some CNS flights later in the season returning as red eyes.

AKL 0625 BNE 0820
BNE 0935 AKl 1455

Saves a crew overnight and can use aircraft to CNS maybe RAR etc ppl

Masterton’s runway length of 1205m is going to be a limiting factor here. That’s 75m shorter than Whakatāne. I believe Eagle had payload limitations on the 1900 out of Masterton, and although I’m not very familiar with the 1900 I believe it has a better runway performance than the Metro. If Air Chathams take this route on (which I think would be great), my guess is they would use a Saab

Just a slight correction MRO 's main runway is 1250 m but very short and I believe is very narrow which is a problem as well. I think the Saab might be too big to begin with so a Metro at 19 seats could be good for the launch period. Whakatane has just had their runway extended thanks to the Regional development fund be good if Masterton could be done as well. Councils can't really afford to invest in their own airports these days unless they have an operator using it. to help with the finance payments through landing fees. Many airports face this issue.
Here is a story from the Hearld last year:

End of the runway? Struggling regional airports could get Govt bailout
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/arti ... d=12248142

WHAKATĀNE READY FOR BIGGER AIRCRAFT
The first Saab service was on 29 November 2019 thanks to the runway upgrades
https://www.airchathams.co.nz/library/f ... katane.pdf

The year ahead International

NZ I’d expect more moving around of the long haul fleet to maximise utilisation, this will be the case in some cases for the International A320/321 aswell, not sure I can see any new destinations, maybe finally CBR or HBT?

I can’t say that I expect to much from other carriers, there will be some changes if aircraft but nothing sticks out to much other than what’s been announced.

Maybe VN SGN-AKL,
hopefully QF PER-AKL
KE return to CHC atleast on a scheduled seasonal basis
CI non stop TPE-AKL, they said NZ is difficult from a utilisation perspective, it is but will they give it a go? Either morning in and out like 0900-1030 but not the best connections ex TPE, or arrive 1700 depart 2300, long ground time

NZ516 wrote:

On the domestic front we might see Air Chathams start AKL to Masterton service using the metro as recently they have up graded the Whakatane route to the SAAB. So the metro is now spare.

The Saab is only being used on weekends to WHK, so the Metroliner is not actually spare and available for MRO. Quite apart from the airport limitations at MRO. I can't see 3C being interested in flying a clearly marginal route unless the runway limitations are removed first.

Congrats and happy new year to all,

NZ into 2020 -

the New CEO will take head of the ship, and will be intresting to see what he has plans for the company going forward.

New PB seats on hold - got this from another site - not sure how much truth there is comig from FSM..

"have just internally announced that all development of new BP seats is on hold due to lack of internal resourcing (because of 787) and also reduced demand they are pushing out all investments."

https://www.flyertalk.com/forum/air-new ... -hold.html

wasn't this upgrade very well advanced last year in-line with the aircraft selection program?

Route wise - can see IVC getting to 6 or even daily services - not much else can see right now , but anything good news is for the company.

lets see what the 2020 Interim Results bring out in Feb. all the best for another year.

DavidByrne wrote:

The Saab is only being used on weekends to WHK, so the Metroliner is not actually spare and available for MRO. Quite apart from the airport limitations at MRO. I can't see 3C being interested in flying a clearly marginal route unless the runway limitations are removed first.

They have more than one. Air Chathams has a fairly substantial fleet of 16 aircraft with 4 Metros so could open a new route with not to much trouble. Runway issues aside;

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Air_Chathams#Fleet

NZ516 wrote:

They have more than one. Air Chathams has a fairly substantial fleet of 16 aircraft with 4 Metros so could open a new route with not to much trouble. Runway issues aside;

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Air_Chathams#Fleet

Thanks for that - I didn't realise they had that many Metroliners. Tempted to ask the question, though . . . why? They only use them on one route which could be served with just one aircraft.

They do a lot of charters. I even see their Metro in Christchurch sometimes with a prisoner transfer.

NZ516 wrote:

Masterton’s runway length of 1205m is going to be a limiting factor here. That’s 75m shorter than Whakatāne. I believe Eagle had payload limitations on the 1900 out of Masterton, and although I’m not very familiar with the 1900 I believe it has a better runway performance than the Metro. If Air Chathams take this route on (which I think would be great), my guess is they would use a Saab

Just a slight correction MRO 's main runway is 1250 m but very short and I believe is very narrow which is a problem as well. I think the Saab might be too big to begin with so a Metro at 19 seats could be good for the launch period. Whakatane has just had their runway extended thanks to the Regional development fund be good if Masterton could be done as well. Councils can't really afford to invest in their own airports these days unless they have an operator using it. to help with the finance payments through landing fees. Many airports face this issue.
Here is a story from the Hearld last year:

End of the runway? Struggling regional airports could get Govt bailout
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/arti ... d=12248142

1250m is the take off distance with the starter extension on 24. 1205 is the take off distance for 06. Either way less than a Metro needs to get out with 18 passengers and bags (of Air Chathams three Metros, only ZK-CIC has a 19th seat, and that is hardly used). Compare it to WHK which has a strip length of 1280 and a takeoff distance available of 1400m. Now consider the distance AKL-MRO is twice AKL-WHK. Simply put, it is not a Metro route.

NZ516 wrote:

DavidByrne wrote:

The Saab is only being used on weekends to WHK, so the Metroliner is not actually spare and available for MRO. Quite apart from the airport limitations at MRO. I can't see 3C being interested in flying a clearly marginal route unless the runway limitations are removed first.

They have more than one. Air Chathams has a fairly substantial fleet of 16 aircraft with 4 Metros so could open a new route with not to much trouble. Runway issues aside;

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Air_Chathams#Fleet

Actually it is only 14 aircraft now - Convairs ZK-CIF and ZK-KFH were both broken up last year. Of the 4 Metros, ZK-POE has not flown since being acquired, and has been sitting engineless for some time. So really it is only 3 Metros in circulation. And all three were flying today to the three regional destinations). Beyond the regular use on Whakatāne and occasional use on Kāpiti and Whanganui, they also use them for various charters, both freight and passenger.

V/F

ZK-NBT wrote:

The year ahead International

NZ I’d expect more moving around of the long haul fleet to maximise utilisation, this will be the case in some cases for the International A320/321 aswell, not sure I can see any new destinations, maybe finally CBR or HBT?

I can’t say that I expect to much from other carriers, there will be some changes if aircraft but nothing sticks out to much other than what’s been announced.

Maybe VN SGN-AKL,
hopefully QF PER-AKL
KE return to CHC atleast on a scheduled seasonal basis
CI non stop TPE-AKL, they said NZ is difficult from a utilisation perspective, it is but will they give it a go? Either morning in and out like 0900-1030 but not the best connections ex TPE, or arrive 1700 depart 2300, long ground time

When do QF get their A321xlr fleet? Could see them doing PER-AKL twice daily with them which would gazump NZ.

1250m is the take off distance with the starter extension on 24. 1205 is the take off distance for 06. Either way less than a Metro needs to get out with 18 passengers and bags (of Air Chathams three Metros, only ZK-CIC has a 19th seat, and that is hardly used). Compare it to WHK which has a strip length of 1280 and a takeoff distance available of 1400m. Now consider the distance AKL-MRO is twice AKL-WHK. Simply put, it is not a Metro route.

Very interesting thanks VF. Probably explains why no new service has been established as so many obstacles to overcome. It goes back to 2014 the first time Masterton Council has been trying to get a replacement service with no luck since then..

There is a good list on 3rd Level NZ on predictions for 2020 and the comments at the bottom are interesting:

http://3rdlevelnz.blogspot.com/2020/01/ ... -2020.html

One thing of interest is will Air Chathams get more ATRs to replace the last Convairs as their retirement is almost due. Air NZ has still 5 waiting for a buyer. The 737 freighter for them won't be coming now that the runway at CHT wont get upgraded. He also mentions about Masterton but no detail.

Motorhussy wrote:

ZK-NBT wrote:

The year ahead International

NZ I’d expect more moving around of the long haul fleet to maximise utilisation, this will be the case in some cases for the International A320/321 aswell, not sure I can see any new destinations, maybe finally CBR or HBT?

I can’t say that I expect to much from other carriers, there will be some changes if aircraft but nothing sticks out to much other than what’s been announced.

Maybe VN SGN-AKL,
hopefully QF PER-AKL
KE return to CHC atleast on a scheduled seasonal basis
CI non stop TPE-AKL, they said NZ is difficult from a utilisation perspective, it is but will they give it a go? Either morning in and out like 0900-1030 but not the best connections ex TPE, or arrive 1700 depart 2300, long ground time

When do QF get their A321xlr fleet? Could see them doing PER-AKL twice daily with them which would gazump NZ.

I’m not sure anything is confirmed re QF getting A321s, 2 weekly seasonal would be a start, I guess the costs could allow daily atleast year round. Not sure about 2 daily, you would be looking at 350-400 seats with a J, Y configuration of 12J 180Y or so, maybe a few more J.

ZK-NBT wrote:

Motorhussy wrote:

ZK-NBT wrote:

The year ahead International

NZ I’d expect more moving around of the long haul fleet to maximise utilisation, this will be the case in some cases for the International A320/321 aswell, not sure I can see any new destinations, maybe finally CBR or HBT?

I can’t say that I expect to much from other carriers, there will be some changes if aircraft but nothing sticks out to much other than what’s been announced.

Maybe VN SGN-AKL,
hopefully QF PER-AKL
KE return to CHC atleast on a scheduled seasonal basis
CI non stop TPE-AKL, they said NZ is difficult from a utilisation perspective, it is but will they give it a go? Either morning in and out like 0900-1030 but not the best connections ex TPE, or arrive 1700 depart 2300, long ground time

When do QF get their A321xlr fleet? Could see them doing PER-AKL twice daily with them which would gazump NZ.

I’m not sure anything is confirmed re QF getting A321s, 2 weekly seasonal would be a start, I guess the costs could allow daily atleast year round. Not sure about 2 daily, you would be looking at 350-400 seats with a J, Y configuration of 12J 180Y or so, maybe a few more J.

Indeed. Firstly, just not that many people travel to Perth. That's why over the years it's been such an on again, off again route. You get the feeling with PER that it does have some positives for the airlines, but overall they'd prefer it didn't exist. It's like PMR in that regard. Secondly, there's a special place in hell reserved for the people who gave single aisle aircraft AKL-PER kind of range. While QF are having fun printing money on the Tasman with their 738's; I can't see then doing the same to us with a densely configured A321 between AKL and PER.

Gasman wrote:

ZK-NBT wrote:

Motorhussy wrote:

When do QF get their A321xlr fleet? Could see them doing PER-AKL twice daily with them which would gazump NZ.

I’m not sure anything is confirmed re QF getting A321s, 2 weekly seasonal would be a start, I guess the costs could allow daily atleast year round. Not sure about 2 daily, you would be looking at 350-400 seats with a J, Y configuration of 12J 180Y or so, maybe a few more J.

Indeed. Firstly, just not that many people travel to Perth. That's why over the years it's been such an on again, off again route. You get the feeling with PER that it does have some positives for the airlines, but overall they'd prefer it didn't exist. It's like PMR in that regard. Secondly, there's a special place in hell reserved for the people who gave single aisle aircraft AKL-PER kind of range. While QF are having fun printing money on the Tasman with their 738's; I can't see then doing the same to us with a densely configured A321 between AKL and PER.

Are we talking about PER, Perth, Perth, Western Australia? Since 2000 there's been something like a 250%+ increase in passengers. Gone for 4-5 per week in peak to 10p/w plus 2x CHCPER but also gone from the 230 763 to the 320+ seat 787/772. We've seen QF enter but leave for operational reasons also, so the not many people travel to Perth statement simply can't be true.

Secondly many expect QF to re-enter at some point and we've discussed before, the merits in EK flying over PER.

I do agree the schedule hasn't been 100% stable and it's a route where adjustments have been made to help make changes elsewhere in the network for an array of reasons.

As for the QF A321XLR, it has merits. I just think QF may have other priorities for it before PER-AKL.

NZ6 wrote:

Gasman wrote:

ZK-NBT wrote:

I’m not sure anything is confirmed re QF getting A321s, 2 weekly seasonal would be a start, I guess the costs could allow daily atleast year round. Not sure about 2 daily, you would be looking at 350-400 seats with a J, Y configuration of 12J 180Y or so, maybe a few more J.

Indeed. Firstly, just not that many people travel to Perth. That's why over the years it's been such an on again, off again route. You get the feeling with PER that it does have some positives for the airlines, but overall they'd prefer it didn't exist. It's like PMR in that regard. Secondly, there's a special place in hell reserved for the people who gave single aisle aircraft AKL-PER kind of range. While QF are having fun printing money on the Tasman with their 738's; I can't see then doing the same to us with a densely configured A321 between AKL and PER.

Are we talking about PER, Perth, Perth, Western Australia? Since 2000 there's been something like a 250%+ increase in passengers. Gone for 4-5 per week in peak to 10p/w plus 2x CHCPER but also gone from the 230 763 to the 320+ seat 787/772. We've seen QF enter but leave for operational reasons also, so the not many people travel to Perth statement simply can't be true.

Secondly many expect QF to re-enter at some point and we've discussed before, the merits in EK flying over PER.

I do agree the schedule hasn't been 100% stable and it's a route where adjustments have been made to help make changes elsewhere in the network for an array of reasons.

As for the QF A321XLR, it has merits. I just think QF may have other priorities for it before PER-AKL.

The QF group ordered 36 A321XLR I believe, 18 are going to JQ it’s believed to replace some 788 flying to DPS not sure where else yet maybe CNS-Japan? What happens to those 788s is the question, do they return to QF or do JQ have other routes lined up or are they sold?

It was said QF were looking at increasing AKL-PER to 4 weekly before the problems with PER airport. As to a double daily A321, they might guzump NZ in losing money, that would be close to 400 seats a day.

I always thought EK might do AKL-PER back when they started AKL, and maybe they would added it if they were allowed more Tasman flights.
It seems to have done

NZ516 wrote:

There is a good list on 3rd Level NZ on predictions for 2020 and the comments at the bottom are interesting:

http://3rdlevelnz.blogspot.com/2020/01/ ... -2020.html

One thing of interest is will Air Chathams get more ATRs to replace the last Convairs as their retirement is almost due. Air NZ has still 5 waiting for a buyer. The 737 freighter for them won't be coming now that the runway at CHT wont get upgraded. He also mentions about Masterton but no detail.

Explains where the MRO suggestion came from.

I think the obvious summary here is, JQ hasn't been able to make regional NZ work and that shows how the much of an uphill battle "mainline" regional NZ is. Public expectations vs reality.

NZ owns this but is also trying to balance frequency with efficiency. There's still a couple of ports out there where the Q300 is arguably the wrong aircraft and the question is how long does or will NZ hold onto these and with the Q300 fleet coming towards the backend of their lifespan what does the future look like? What will the replacement be and does that work for these ports? Does this offer 3C or someone else another bit of the market?

Below NZ, there are, let's call it 8 carriers which I can only label as "boutique". 3rd Level listed 10. 3C is clearly the stand out of the bunch and Air Auckland, if it's to be considered an air taxi, we should pool that into the charter market where there are many more including the helicopter segment, that's how I've got my 8.

They all virtually run bespoke routes with no real 'network' as such.

Personally I don't see them as a regional airline but more a boutique transport option for those who don't or can't drive but can also afford more than a bus/ferry etc

I would like to see them all sign-up and work together better. Perhaps, sharing a centralised reservations system for better sales, marketing and distribution or product but also interline with each other in SOME scenarios. I'm not suggesting this would then compete with NZ on a 9 stop trip from IVC to KAT or offer a nationwide network but it could allow a few more city pairs via 1 stop without a significant increase in CAPEX costs and risk with new routes but also splitting the expense of a costly IT solutions to expose themselves to more potential passengers.

ZK-NBT wrote:

The QF group ordered 36 A321XLR I believe, 18 are going to JQ it’s believed to replace some 788 flying to DPS not sure where else yet maybe CNS-Japan? What happens to those 788s is the question, do they return to QF or do JQ have other routes lined up or are they sold?

It was said QF were looking at increasing AKL-PER to 4 weekly before the problems with PER airport. As to a double daily A321, they might guzump NZ in losing money, that would be close to 400 seats a day.

I always thought EK might do AKL-PER back when they started AKL, and maybe they would added it if they were allowed more Tasman flights.
It seems to have done

I can't imagine JQ flying AKL-PER before QF but that's not completely unrealistic either.

Assuming QF were to do it. They're only getting 18 of the frames and I'm not sure of the 36, which ones QF get vs JQ and what the delivery window is. Basically, when do QF start receiving them.

As I said, I agree the A332XLR has its merits on AKL-PER, I'm just suggesting QF may have plans to use them elsewhere first and that could be freeing up a 787 elsewhere which could be used into AKL.

NZ6 wrote:

NZ516 wrote:

There is a good list on 3rd Level NZ on predictions for 2020 and the comments at the bottom are interesting:

NZ owns this but is also trying to balance frequency with efficiency. There's still a couple of ports out there where the Q300 is arguably the wrong aircraft and the question is how long does or will NZ hold onto these and with the Q300 fleet coming towards the backend of their lifespan what does the future look like? What will the replacement be and does that work for these ports? Does this offer 3C or someone else another bit of the market?

There isn't a perfect aircraft for regional NZ unfortunately and even the ATR doesn't fit entirely well but is good enough for most things as long as OTP isn't too much of a concern . The Q300 for its age is a pretty reliable platform and has capabilities that are helpful in even those markets where it may be the "wrong aircraft". I think a recession could see a shortening of its Koru life but for now it's a pretty valuable component of the fleet with a decent amount of life left it in.

NZ6 wrote:

ZK-NBT wrote:

The QF group ordered 36 A321XLR I believe, 18 are going to JQ it’s believed to replace some 788 flying to DPS not sure where else yet maybe CNS-Japan? What happens to those 788s is the question, do they return to QF or do JQ have other routes lined up or are they sold?

It was said QF were looking at increasing AKL-PER to 4 weekly before the problems with PER airport. As to a double daily A321, they might guzump NZ in losing money, that would be close to 400 seats a day.

I always thought EK might do AKL-PER back when they started AKL, and maybe they would added it if they were allowed more Tasman flights.
It seems to have done

I can't imagine JQ flying AKL-PER before QF but that's not completely unrealistic either.

Assuming QF were to do it. They're only getting 18 of the frames and I'm not sure of the 36, which ones QF get vs JQ and what the delivery window is. Basically, when do QF start receiving them.

As I said, I agree the A332XLR has its merits on AKL-PER, I'm just suggesting QF may have plans to use them elsewhere first and that could be freeing up a 787 elsewhere which could be used into AKL.

Typical of me I didn’t really finish what I was saying.

JQ would probably get 220/226 seats on an A321 given NZ 214, how much of an impact would this have on the AKL-PER leg particularly given a narrow body would be looking at 8 hrs plus into the wind, probably fine on the return.

Where are the other 18 aircraft going? I’m not aware of anything suggesting QF are actually getting any, they will likely start replacing the 738 fleet around the mid 2020s and given Boeing’s woes the A320 series had to be a chance maybe a mix of A321/320/220?

I would think freeing up an A332 would be the most likely option still for PER-AKL with the aircraft as originally planned going through to JNB or something given the only other A332 International run is PER-SIN.

I wonder if or when NZ will increase AKL-PER? There was some talk of it some time ago, could just be the 787 issues holding them back from adding more flights in winter I’m talking about, New ports like ICN/TPE/ORD are more important given PER is already served atleast daily.

NZ6 wrote:

Gasman wrote:

ZK-NBT wrote:

I’m not sure anything is confirmed re QF getting A321s, 2 weekly seasonal would be a start, I guess the costs could allow daily atleast year round. Not sure about 2 daily, you would be looking at 350-400 seats with a J, Y configuration of 12J 180Y or so, maybe a few more J.

Indeed. Firstly, just not that many people travel to Perth. That's why over the years it's been such an on again, off again route. You get the feeling with PER that it does have some positives for the airlines, but overall they'd prefer it didn't exist. It's like PMR in that regard. Secondly, there's a special place in hell reserved for the people who gave single aisle aircraft AKL-PER kind of range. While QF are having fun printing money on the Tasman with their 738's; I can't see then doing the same to us with a densely configured A321 between AKL and PER.

Are we talking about PER, Perth, Perth, Western Australia? Since 2000 there's been something like a 250%+ increase in passengers. Gone for 4-5 per week in peak to 10p/w plus 2x CHCPER but also gone from the 230 763 to the 320+ seat 787/772. We've seen QF enter but leave for operational reasons also, so the not many people travel to Perth statement simply can't be true.

Secondly many expect QF to re-enter at some point and we've discussed before, the merits in EK flying over PER.

I do agree the schedule hasn't been 100% stable and it's a route where adjustments have been made to help make changes elsewhere in the network for an array of reasons.

As for the QF A321XLR, it has merits. I just think QF may have other priorities for it before PER-AKL.

Not sure where you get your 250% figure from, but assuming it's true that it's roughly inline with the global increase in air travel over the same period - so on that basis PER is simply holding its own.

Regardless, I don't see any airline offering either A321 flights or twice daily flights on any metal in the next decade. Even if mining picks up again.

ZK-NBT wrote:

The year ahead International

NZ I’d expect more moving around of the long haul fleet to maximise utilisation, this will be the case in some cases for the International A320/321 aswell, not sure I can see any new destinations, maybe finally CBR or HBT?

I can’t say that I expect to much from other carriers, there will be some changes if aircraft but nothing sticks out to much other than what’s been announced.

Maybe VN SGN-AKL,
hopefully QF PER-AKL
KE return to CHC atleast on a scheduled seasonal basis
CI non stop TPE-AKL, they said NZ is difficult from a utilisation perspective, it is but will they give it a go? Either morning in and out like 0900-1030 but not the best connections ex TPE, or arrive 1700 depart 2300, long ground time

I like your kind of thinking for all. KE hopefully will do well enough to return to CHC next summer. Not sure about VN would be great to see them here but not expect they will go to Brisbane first. And if any new international expansion from NZ will likely be short haul only another Australian destination as most likely as the Pacific is already well covered. Could NZ make a deal with Canberra airport to get it a viable financial operation to start 3 per week service this is the challenge to overcome in my opinion.

ZK-NBT wrote:

CI non stop TPE-AKL, they said NZ is difficult from a utilisation perspective, it is but will they give it a go? Either morning in and out like 0900-1030 but not the best connections ex TPE, or arrive 1700 depart 2300, long ground time

CI currently does quite well with the TPE-BNE-AKL arrangement, having moved to daily only a year ago (excluding some scheduled cancellations in low periods). The aircraft is pretty much consistently full on all sectors thanks to the BNE-AKL pax and they do well on BNE-AKL cargo. As you mentioned, utilisation would be not great if they were to launch AKL non-stop. I would expect the current arrangement to be around for a while yet.

While we are all focused on 2020 and what it may hold it is worth noting that as of yesterday SQ 247/248 is now operating thru Wellington 5 days a week. Will this go daily and is the option there for it to operate SIN-WLG-MEL-SIN at some point in the near future or is the MEL-WLG-MEL demand such that SQ are happy to continue using it as a trans Tasman competitor to Qantas and a lesser extent Air NZ. Anecdotally I hear SQ are happy with the loadings. Passengers are very happy with the A350 and it is a far better option than QF's 738's and NZ's A320's. Having flown on QF's 738's and 'enjoyed' the lack of leg room on what is basically a domestic aircraft I will be using SQ going forward.

NZ516 wrote:

ZK-NBT wrote:

The year ahead International

NZ I’d expect more moving around of the long haul fleet to maximise utilisation, this will be the case in some cases for the International A320/321 aswell, not sure I can see any new destinations, maybe finally CBR or HBT?

I can’t say that I expect to much from other carriers, there will be some changes if aircraft but nothing sticks out to much other than what’s been announced.

Maybe VN SGN-AKL,
hopefully QF PER-AKL
KE return to CHC atleast on a scheduled seasonal basis
CI non stop TPE-AKL, they said NZ is difficult from a utilisation perspective, it is but will they give it a go? Either morning in and out like 0900-1030 but not the best connections ex TPE, or arrive 1700 depart 2300, long ground time

I like your kind of thinking for all. KE hopefully will do well enough to return to CHC next summer. Not sure about VN would be great to see them here but not expect they will go to Brisbane first. And if any new international expansion from NZ will likely be short haul only another Australian destination as most likely as the Pacific is already well covered. Could NZ make a deal with Canberra airport to get it a viable financial operation to start 3 per week service this is the challenge to overcome in my opinion.

Maybe NF to WLG/CHC with the A220 fleet arriving?

CHC has done well in recent years with CZ, CX, KE, AA arriving, CI came and went via MEL and SYD, perhaps an MU service to PVG? UA to SFO is another one to consider. With NZ to SIN and PER in summer I wonder if they will look at HNL/DPS in winter at all?

AKL is pretty saturated for mine for a while I think other than what’s been announced.

With there already 7x A321NEOs in the works for domestic coming over the next few years. How about an bit of an domestic shake up for the q300 replacement.

Could see something like:
7x additional 72-600
14x a220-300s (7x replacement for Q300s, 7x from 2025 for the remaining A320CEOs).

Effectively using some of the current ATR’s to replace the Q300 flights, while upgrading some ATR flights to the a220 eg AKL-NSN, WLG-CHC, CHC-ZQN.

Making the new late 2020 fleet to be made up of

a321NEO - 230seats
a220-300 - 130seats
ATR 72-600 - 70seats (surely NZ will add some more seats soon, remember the good old days of 66 seats)

Indeed they could try CHC to DPS winter seasonal but probably should make AKL daily first .
If demand was there say moving to 9 per week with two flights per week running a AKL-DPS-CHC-DPS-AKL rotation. Problem will be the shortage of 787s with on going RR issues which will prevent much more long-haul expansion even if the DPS route stays 777 permanently. Also they could make CHC to PER an all year round service one day.

GW54 wrote:

Having flown on QF's 738's and 'enjoyed' the lack of leg room on what is basically a domestic aircraft I will be using SQ going forward.

It's incredible isn't it. I "enjoy" those same 738s about a dozen times a year I suppose. They are neither cheap nor comfortable; but astonishingly nearly always full - which in itself just adds to the "enjoyment".

I'm a QF frequent flier for a number of reasons, but the Trans Tasman 738 hard product is definitely not one of them.

Gasman wrote:

NZ6 wrote:

Gasman wrote:

Indeed. Firstly, just not that many people travel to Perth. That's why over the years it's been such an on again, off again route.

Are we talking about PER, Perth, Perth, Western Australia? Since 2000 there's been something like a 250%+ increase in passengers. Gone for 4-5 per week in peak to 10p/w plus 2x CHCPER but also gone from the 230 763 to the 320+ seat 787/772. We've seen QF enter but leave for operational reasons also, so the not many people travel to Perth statement simply can't be true..

Not sure where you get your 250% figure from, but assuming it's true that it's roughly inline with the global increase in air travel over the same period - so on that basis PER is simply holding its own.

Regardless, I don't see any airline offering either A321 flights or twice daily flights on any metal in the next decade. Even if mining picks up again.

At home on holidays, was just a blind ballpark number based on the significant increase in available seats in the market.

Clearly the, "not that many people travel to Perth" statement is a bit of a wild and misleading comment. This is what I was trying to highlight. If NZ can do 12 per/week NZ-PER, QF has done it before, I don't see why QF wouldn't want to do it again as there's clearly enough passengers, it's just a matter of is the A321XLR the right equipment, is it a priority for this when it arrives or where/when does a 787 become available for them.

zkncj wrote:

With there already 7x A321NEOs in the works for domestic coming over the next few years. How about an bit of an domestic shake up for the q300 replacement.

Could see something like:
7x additional 72-600
14x a220-300s (7x replacement for Q300s, 7x from 2025 for the remaining A320CEOs).

Effectively using some of the current ATR’s to replace the Q300 flights, while upgrading some ATR flights to the a220 eg AKL-NSN, WLG-CHC, CHC-ZQN.

Making the new late 2020 fleet to be made up of

a321NEO - 230seats
a220-300 - 130seats
ATR 72-600 - 70seats (surely NZ will add some more seats soon, remember the good old days of 66 seats)

So instead of a gap from 68-171 seats on the ATR A320 the gap has moved to 130-230 seats on the A220, A321. Cost is the issue surely here so we could end up with say 14 A321 with 230 seats, 14 A220 with 130 seats, that’s 28 jets up from 20 domestic today A320s with 171 seats.

Admittedly the A321 is a bit big for the likes of DUD imo. I guess it will be interesting to see what plays out, the current domestic A320s AFAIK are only oldest 7 years OXA, with the 4 older leases ones OAB, OJQ, R, S and 3 international ones being replaced by A321s from 2021.

ZK-NBT wrote:

zkncj wrote:

With there already 7x A321NEOs in the works for domestic coming over the next few years. How about an bit of an domestic shake up for the q300 replacement.

Could see something like:
7x additional 72-600
14x a220-300s (7x replacement for Q300s, 7x from 2025 for the remaining A320CEOs).

Effectively using some of the current ATR’s to replace the Q300 flights, while upgrading some ATR flights to the a220 eg AKL-NSN, WLG-CHC, CHC-ZQN.

Making the new late 2020 fleet to be made up of

a321NEO - 230seats
a220-300 - 130seats
ATR 72-600 - 70seats (surely NZ will add some more seats soon, remember the good old days of 66 seats)

So instead of a gap from 68-171 seats on the ATR A320 the gap has moved to 130-230 seats on the A220, A321. Cost is the issue surely here so we could end up with say 14 A321 with 230 seats, 14 A220 with 130 seats, that’s 28 jets up from 20 domestic today A320s with 171 seats.

Admittedly the A321 is a bit big for the likes of DUD imo. I guess it will be interesting to see what plays out, the current domestic A320s AFAIK are only oldest 7 years OXA, with the 4 older leases ones OAB, OJQ, R, S and 3 international ones being replaced by A321s from 2021.

I was under the impression that the A321 was also bit of a stretch for ZQN on rotation limits; or is that only on intl flights? I still think the A220 could be a really good choice not only for domestic but certain regional routes as well. Domestically with A220 there are plenty of existing as well as some possible new routes. Think, HLZ-ZQN (lots of rich dairy farmers taking the kids skiing) WLG-WRE (might be a stretch in terms of demand)

NZ6 wrote:

Gasman wrote:

NZ6 wrote:

Since 2000 there's been something like a 250%+ increase in passengers.

Not sure where you get your 250% figure from, but assuming it's true that it's roughly inline with the global increase in air travel over the same period - so on that basis PER is simply holding its own.

Regardless, I don't see any airline offering either A321 flights or twice daily flights on any metal in the next decade. Even if mining picks up again.

At home on holidays

Which is where I should've stayed for mine. Instead I'm breathing bush fire smoke piped into the interior of my hotel in Melbourne.

NZ6 wrote:

was just a blind ballpark number based on the significant increase in available seats in the market.

Even though 78.5% of statistics are completely made up, one really shouldn't post blind ballpark numbers without qualifying them as such.

NZ6 wrote:

Clearly the, "not that many people travel to Perth" statement is a bit of a wild and misleading comment.

A wild comment yes, but not misleading. I hesitate to post statistics - on a topic such as this you can find ones to back up whatever it is you want to argue - but here are some which are probably as kosher as any, and they don't paint a pretty picture.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-07-21/ ... e/10015164

Perth is just not on your average Australian's radar as a leisure destination. For many New Zealanders it is; but more of one on your "to-do" list as opposed to your "do" list. All of this is exemplified by the fact NZ's own AKL-PER service has historically had all the enthusiasm of AA into AKL, and QF even worse than that. So I think suggestions of a twice daily service by NZ AKL-PER are wishful, to say the least.

ZK-NBT wrote:

zkncj wrote:

With there already 7x A321NEOs in the works for domestic coming over the next few years. How about an bit of an domestic shake up for the q300 replacement.

Could see something like:
7x additional 72-600
14x a220-300s (7x replacement for Q300s, 7x from 2025 for the remaining A320CEOs).

Effectively using some of the current ATR’s to replace the Q300 flights, while upgrading some ATR flights to the a220 eg AKL-NSN, WLG-CHC, CHC-ZQN.

Making the new late 2020 fleet to be made up of

a321NEO - 230seats
a220-300 - 130seats
ATR 72-600 - 70seats (surely NZ will add some more seats soon, remember the good old days of 66 seats)

So instead of a gap from 68-171 seats on the ATR A320 the gap has moved to 130-230 seats on the A220, A321. Cost is the issue surely here so we could end up with say 14 A321 with 230 seats, 14 A220 with 130 seats, that’s 28 jets up from 20 domestic today A320s with 171 seats.

Currently the domestic fleet prop/jet is 69 (+ 3x lended CEOs), reducing the total fleet down to approximately 44 aircraft would have some savers, just if it out weights the costs of jets.

Then the a220 do have the ability to be used on Short-Haul International too, thinking the likes of AKL-CBR,HBA,NTL,MCY / CHC-OOL / WLG-OOL / ZQN-OOL etc

Admittedly the A321 is a bit big for the likes of DUD imo. I guess it will be interesting to see what plays out, the current domestic A320s AFAIK are only oldest 7 years OXA, with the 4 older leases ones OAB, OJQ, R, S and 3 international ones being replaced by A321s from 2021.

By 2025 OXA will be 12, which the Tasman/Pacific fleet started to be replaced around that age.

https://3rdlevelnz.blogspot.com/2020/01 ... light.html

While Sounds Air have withdrawn from this service they have stated there will be a new route this year.

This quote was at the bottom of the story and the author Steve Lowe is usually on the money about these things so I presume a new route from Sounds Air this year then. Any guesses?

77west wrote:

ZK-NBT wrote:

zkncj wrote:

With there already 7x A321NEOs in the works for domestic coming over the next few years. How about an bit of an domestic shake up for the q300 replacement.

Could see something like:
7x additional 72-600
14x a220-300s (7x replacement for Q300s, 7x from 2025 for the remaining A320CEOs).

Effectively using some of the current ATR’s to replace the Q300 flights, while upgrading some ATR flights to the a220 eg AKL-NSN, WLG-CHC, CHC-ZQN.

Making the new late 2020 fleet to be made up of

a321NEO - 230seats
a220-300 - 130seats
ATR 72-600 - 70seats (surely NZ will add some more seats soon, remember the good old days of 66 seats)

So instead of a gap from 68-171 seats on the ATR A320 the gap has moved to 130-230 seats on the A220, A321. Cost is the issue surely here so we could end up with say 14 A321 with 230 seats, 14 A220 with 130 seats, that’s 28 jets up from 20 domestic today A320s with 171 seats.

Admittedly the A321 is a bit big for the likes of DUD imo. I guess it will be interesting to see what plays out, the current domestic A320s AFAIK are only oldest 7 years OXA, with the 4 older leases ones OAB, OJQ, R, S and 3 international ones being replaced by A321s from 2021.

I was under the impression that the A321 was also bit of a stretch for ZQN on rotation limits; or is that only on intl flights? I still think the A220 could be a really good choice not only for domestic but certain regional routes as well. Domestically with A220 there are plenty of existing as well as some possible new routes. Think, HLZ-ZQN (lots of rich dairy farmers taking the kids skiing) WLG-WRE (might be a stretch in terms of demand)

IIRC
ZQN for A321 runs into takeoff weight limits, gate length limits, turn around time, passenger gate room limits, engine out/RNP limits.
NZ has taken it in as a trial but only half loads.

Zkpilot wrote:

77west wrote:

ZK-NBT wrote:

So instead of a gap from 68-171 seats on the ATR A320 the gap has moved to 130-230 seats on the A220, A321. Cost is the issue surely here so we could end up with say 14 A321 with 230 seats, 14 A220 with 130 seats, that’s 28 jets up from 20 domestic today A320s with 171 seats.

Admittedly the A321 is a bit big for the likes of DUD imo. I guess it will be interesting to see what plays out, the current domestic A320s AFAIK are only oldest 7 years OXA, with the 4 older leases ones OAB, OJQ, R, S and 3 international ones being replaced by A321s from 2021.

I was under the impression that the A321 was also bit of a stretch for ZQN on rotation limits; or is that only on intl flights? I still think the A220 could be a really good choice not only for domestic but certain regional routes as well. Domestically with A220 there are plenty of existing as well as some possible new routes. Think, HLZ-ZQN (lots of rich dairy farmers taking the kids skiing) WLG-WRE (might be a stretch in terms of demand)

IIRC
ZQN for A321 runs into takeoff weight limits, gate length limits, turn around time, passenger gate room limits, engine out/RNP limits.
NZ has taken it in as a trial but only half loads.

Yes there is ZQN aswell which I wonder if they can overcome some of these issues atleast on domestic flights with weight restricted takeoffs etc, I’d think there would be 1-2 gates they could use extend for the extra A321 length. Not so sure on International with the surrounding mountains, engine out procedures.

I’m all for variety but the airlines are all for cost reduction etc which is why I’d be skeptical if additional types being added. How much can airbus make the A220 like the A320?

I agree there is a gap and there are routes where a mid sized aircraft might better fit, but it’s the added cost of another type that is the biggest challenge imo given the overall fleet size and adding that additional type. What will be interesting is what replaces the Q300, an ATR I’d guess, an ATR42 or more 72-600s? I’d guess this is several years away and the Q300s will operate for 20ish years?

Origin Air to resume Nelson to Wellington route with fares at a reasonable $69 one way.. Filling a void now that Jetstar has gone:

http://3rdlevelnz.blogspot.com/2020/01/ ... oming.html

NZ516 wrote:

Origin Air to resume Nelson to Wellington route with fares at a reasonable $69 one way.. Filling a void now that Jetstar has gone:

http://3rdlevelnz.blogspot.com/2020/01/ ... oming.html

That price surely can't be sustained........

That is the intro fare the flexi fare is $189. The schedule flight is 4 days per week Mon, Wed, Fri and Sun. Looks like the first flight starts 14 Feb.

Gasman wrote:

NZ516 wrote:

Origin Air to resume Nelson to Wellington route with fares at a reasonable $69 one way.. Filling a void now that Jetstar has gone:

http://3rdlevelnz.blogspot.com/2020/01/ ... oming.html

That price surely can't be sustained........

Wouldn’t think they would have deep pockets either....

They will have to manage it just the way NZ mangers it's sale processes once the cheapest seats are all sold the highest ones will then be next and so forth until the flight is full on any particular day.

NZ516 wrote:

They will have to manage it just the way NZ mangers it's sale processes once the cheapest seats are all sold the highest ones will then be next and so forth until the flight is full on any particular day.

Not really how it works but anyway