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qf789
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Australian Aviation Thread - January 2020

Tue Dec 31, 2019 10:32 am

Happy New Year and welcome to Australian Aviation Thread January 2020. Please add your comments below

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1435975&p=21892721#p21892721

Qantas Fleet Thread 2020

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1437873&p=21892753#p21892753

Since its the first thread of the year, predictions for the year

Also I would like to take this opportunity to thank everyone for their contributions in this thread, after all its the best regular thread on the site and wouldn't be what it is with everyone's involvement
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SCFlyer
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - January 2020

Tue Dec 31, 2019 1:00 pm

Have a good year ahead everyone. Wishes and thoughts to those battling the fires.

To get in early with some brief predictions.

*QF Group*
x3 788s moved to QF mainline around Q4 2020: Initially on domestic runs for familiarisation until later announcements on what QF plans to do with them.
Announcement of top up order for 789s for another 4x units minimum (or 6x maximum), enabling some small expansion after the retirement of the 744s
JQ's A321LRs used for the DPS flights in late Q4: Initial announcements include the BNE-DPS at double daily A321LRs (replacing the x7-x9 weekly 788s)
QF announces some of the A321XLRs from the Airbus order will be allocated to QF mainline

*Others*
Bilaterals between Qatar and AU negotiated for another x7 frequencies to the "Big 4". This would enable the BNE flights that QR are supposedly wanting
Far out of left field. DL starting SYD-SEA in partnership with VA.
EK "right-sizing" out of AU, i.e "robbing Tom to pay Paul" between certain cities, as well as up-gauges and down-gauges on certain flights.

*VA group*
A330 leases to be renewed at a favourable rate after negotiations between Scurrah and the A330 lessors
VA/HX partnership to be dissolved in late Q1 or Q2 (through either HX's bankruptcy and/or liquidation)
HNA will (again) attempt to try to sell their stake, but to no avail.
The annual yearly "SQ WANTS TO BUY MORE INTO VA" fake news article occurs with little to no substance.
Some 'right-sizing' cutbacks on VAi 737 flying, most likely out of the remaining NZ operations (except for the Australia-AKL routes including the local government subsidised seasonal NTL-AKL route). CHC-RAR (fifth freedom route) a certainty to be given the boot.
 
Captdasbomb
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - January 2020

Tue Dec 31, 2019 1:49 pm

Anyone know why QF9(ZNJ) today is flying a rather unusual route ? ie Flew overland all the way up to Exmouth
 
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qf789
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - January 2020

Tue Dec 31, 2019 2:12 pm

Captdasbomb wrote:
Anyone know why QF9(ZNJ) today is flying a rather unusual route ? ie Flew overland all the way up to Exmouth


I wouldn't call that unusual, its taken that path before. I would say due to winds they are just flying a more optimal route. Yesterday's QF9 had a flight time of 18 hrs
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SYDSpotter
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - January 2020

Wed Jan 01, 2020 2:24 am

Flew into SYD this morning and all the Smartgates were out of action, so it was manual processing. Luckily wasn't on an early morning 7-8am inbound flight where there are multiple Intl flights landing at the same time.
319_320_321_332_333_359_388 / 734_737_738_743_744_762_763_772_773_77W_788_789
 
redroo
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - January 2020

Wed Jan 01, 2020 2:51 am

qf789 wrote:
Captdasbomb wrote:
Anyone know why QF9(ZNJ) today is flying a rather unusual route ? ie Flew overland all the way up to Exmouth


I wouldn't call that unusual, its taken that path before. I would say due to winds they are just flying a more optimal route. Yesterday's QF9 had a flight time of 18 hrs


Pretty incredible when you think about the different routings it takes just to avoid or take advantage of the winds.
 
smi0006
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - January 2020

Wed Jan 01, 2020 3:45 am

SYDSpotter wrote:
Flew into SYD this morning and all the Smartgates were out of action, so it was manual processing. Luckily wasn't on an early morning 7-8am inbound flight where there are multiple Intl flights landing at the same time.


Not related to today’s outage, but the government late last year also decided to stick with the current two step process of inbound facilitation and upgrade current equipment; of both gates and kiosks. Avery disappointing back flip of the prior plan to install a single step solution of the same model as on departures, something AKl has had for years. In fact ABF bought the second hand smart gates off NZIS for MEL expansion some years ago....
 
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Australian Aviation Thread - January 2020

Wed Jan 01, 2020 7:31 am

QR A380 A7-APB went tech on Sunday has departed PER today positioning to Doha as QR3282.

Appears to have a stain near the nose cone (unusual for QR as their aircraft are kept pristine) which indicates a bird strike perhaps?

ImageImageImage

https://www.instagram.com/p/B6xFcV4h66K ... ac469ocdah

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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - January 2020

Wed Jan 01, 2020 7:53 am

SCFlyer wrote:
.
*QF Group*
x3 788s moved to QF mainline around Q4 2020: Initially on domestic runs for familiarisation until later announcements on what QF plans to do with them..


Could maybe be used on the Tasman? Anyone know how the PE has been selling like on the current temporary 789 service on SYD-AKL-SYD?

The 788 maybe could be an good size craft to start PER-AKL backup.
 
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - January 2020

Wed Jan 01, 2020 8:36 am

Canberra Airport (CBR) Open Day 2020 is on Sunday 5 April.
Source: https://www.canberraairport.com.au/corp ... -day-2020/

Will be the fourth time attending for me, after 2014, 2016, 2018 - and can recommend it. Last one in 2018 was ticketed (free) as it attracts a large crowd and traffic management to the airport and parking was improved.
 
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - January 2020

Wed Jan 01, 2020 10:25 am

EK413 wrote:
QR A380 A7-APB went tech on Sunday has departed PER today positioning to Doha as QR3282.

Appears to have a stain near the nose cone (unusual for QR as their aircraft are kept pristine) which indicates a bird strike perhaps?


It was an issue with an actuator. The blemish on the nose is from the GPU being connected and close to the aircraft for some time.
B737/738/739/744ER/752/753/763/77L/77W/788/789
A223/320/321/332/333/346/359/388
MD82/MD88/717/F100/RJ85/RJ100/146-100/200/300
E175/190/CRJ700/900
 
Captdasbomb
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - January 2020

Wed Jan 01, 2020 11:34 am

redroo wrote:
qf789 wrote:
Captdasbomb wrote:
Anyone know why QF9(ZNJ) today is flying a rather unusual route ? ie Flew overland all the way up to Exmouth


I wouldn't call that unusual, its taken that path before. I would say due to winds they are just flying a more optimal route. Yesterday's QF9 had a flight time of 18 hrs


Pretty incredible when you think about the different routings it takes just to avoid or take advantage of the winds.


Must have been pretty windy. QF10 was a breezy 15hrs 24mins
 
81819
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - January 2020

Wed Jan 01, 2020 1:25 pm

zkncj wrote:
SCFlyer wrote:
.
*QF Group*
x3 788s moved to QF mainline around Q4 2020: Initially on domestic runs for familiarisation until later announcements on what QF plans to do with them..


Could maybe be used on the Tasman? Anyone know how the PE has been selling like on the current temporary 789 service on SYD-AKL-SYD?

The 788 maybe could be an good size craft to start PER-AKL backup.


I suspect Mr. Joyce was being very naughty when he threatened to sell three JQ 788’s. The threat was linked with a industrial dispute with employees.

From my understanding the aircraft have become “excess” on the basis Hawaii flights are not performing due to the AUD:$US exchange rate.

The reality is airlines face fluctuations in exchange rates all the time. They adjust / move capacity as required by market conditions. This is even more true for LCC’s who traditionally employ a agile model.

I suspect there are quite a few routes where these jets could be used.

From where I sit, spare us the melodrama. Complaining about selling jets suggests opportunism, not sustainable business practices.
 
IndianicWorld
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - January 2020

Wed Jan 01, 2020 1:40 pm

travelhound wrote:
zkncj wrote:
SCFlyer wrote:
.
*QF Group*
x3 788s moved to QF mainline around Q4 2020: Initially on domestic runs for familiarisation until later announcements on what QF plans to do with them..


Could maybe be used on the Tasman? Anyone know how the PE has been selling like on the current temporary 789 service on SYD-AKL-SYD?

The 788 maybe could be an good size craft to start PER-AKL backup.


I suspect Mr. Joyce was being very naughty when he threatened to sell three JQ 788’s. The threat was linked with a industrial dispute with employees.

From my understanding the aircraft have become “excess” on the basis Hawaii flights are not performing due to the AUD:$US exchange rate.

The reality is airlines face fluctuations in exchange rates all the time. They adjust / move capacity as required by market conditions. This is even more true for LCC’s who traditionally employ a agile model.

I suspect there are quite a few routes where these jets could be used.

From where I sit, spare us the melodrama. Complaining about selling jets suggests opportunism, not sustainable business practices.


I had read that too but if HNL is doing poorly, why are they still flying QF and JQ flights on SYD-HNL?

Surely there are opportunities for more Thailand or other opportunities out there if the conditions are not favourable for HNL.

Just a random thought here, but could the 788 in JQ’s configuration fly MEL-Chennai or MEL-Bangaluru?
 
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - January 2020

Thu Jan 02, 2020 2:10 am

BAeRJ100 wrote:
EK413 wrote:
QR A380 A7-APB went tech on Sunday has departed PER today positioning to Doha as QR3282.

Appears to have a stain near the nose cone (unusual for QR as their aircraft are kept pristine) which indicates a bird strike perhaps?


It was an issue with an actuator. The blemish on the nose is from the GPU being connected and close to the aircraft for some time.


Cheers, thanks for clarifying. Hopefully the stain buffs out. Bird strike would’ve been more of a red splatter when I think about it.


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Australian Aviation Thread - January 2020

Thu Jan 02, 2020 8:09 am

Spotters Alert

Flight UA863 from San Francisco to Sydney
https://fr24.com/UAL863/236283ca

Image

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81819
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - January 2020

Thu Jan 02, 2020 11:42 am

IndianicWorld wrote:
travelhound wrote:
zkncj wrote:

Could maybe be used on the Tasman? Anyone know how the PE has been selling like on the current temporary 789 service on SYD-AKL-SYD?

The 788 maybe could be an good size craft to start PER-AKL backup.


I suspect Mr. Joyce was being very naughty when he threatened to sell three JQ 788’s. The threat was linked with a industrial dispute with employees.

From my understanding the aircraft have become “excess” on the basis Hawaii flights are not performing due to the AUD:$US exchange rate.

The reality is airlines face fluctuations in exchange rates all the time. They adjust / move capacity as required by market conditions. This is even more true for LCC’s who traditionally employ a agile model.

I suspect there are quite a few routes where these jets could be used.

From where I sit, spare us the melodrama. Complaining about selling jets suggests opportunism, not sustainable business practices.


I had read that too but if HNL is doing poorly, why are they still flying QF and JQ flights on SYD-HNL?

Surely there are opportunities for more Thailand or other opportunities out there if the conditions are not favourable for HNL.

Just a random thought here, but could the 788 in JQ’s configuration fly MEL-Chennai or MEL-Bangaluru?


As I understand it (and without considering exchange rates between countries), using the 787 on mid range routes (Asia / Pacific) are higher yielding than longer routes such as Hawaii.

As such, QANTAS could be reviewing the JQ route structures / strategy for international flying going forward. With the A321LR capable of doing some of the 787 flying, JQ may need a structural fleet mindset change.

Another consideration is the size and demographic of JQ's core customer base. It has been said, as the average customer only has "X" amount to spend on a holiday, the bang for buck equation favours destinations that are closer to Australia (Bali comes to mind). As such, it could be more profitable for JQ to direct their customers to destinations where they receive higher yields (instead of having to discount flights).

From where I sit the QANTAS management team have a bit of a country cub attitude. They are more inclined to take a strategy easy approach, than develop markets outside their core demographic.

As you state there are quite a few destinations in Asia that JQ could develop. With there being large groups of Asian resident populations living in Australia you would think JQ would be doing back flips to target these groups. Unfortunately, their core market seems to be centered around Caucasians.

If we go back to some of the original long haul JQ business models, Athens (Greece) and Frankfurt (Germany) were both destinations high on the JQ list. As such I would like to see more JQ 787's flying out of Perth.

I fly with SQ form Brisbane:Saigon on a regular basis. These SQ flights often have a large VN base of passengers through travelling to HCM. You would think direct BNE:HCM flights would be better suited than the current BNE:SYD:HCM or BNE:SIN:HCM options. Again, I would think JQ would be well placed for these flights.

I just can't imagine a situation where JQ would want to down size their international operations. JQ is well placed within the Australian market. I am not sure why they would not want to develop their network into new markets. It would give the airline the scale to be a credible option for the general flying public.
 
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - January 2020

Thu Jan 02, 2020 12:47 pm

An elderly passenger has passed away at CBR going into respiratory shock after getting off a QF flight from BNE.

Conditions look horrific & don't look like improving anytime soon....

https://www.news.com.au/travel/travel-u ... 97936b5cda
Essendon - Whatever it takes......
 
myki
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - January 2020

Thu Jan 02, 2020 12:50 pm

Australians definitely love Asia for holidays, also business too, and MEL-SGN (not HCM) and SYD-SGN are covered with JQ, and maybe to HAN could be started? They would at least know numbers on this with their part-ownership of BL to know is HAN, or anywhere else in Vietnam, would be viable. My guess is that if they aren't doing SGN daily (whether due to availability of aircraft or due to numbers), then might be best to ramp that up first before flying elsewhere.

Other options for them? CEB, TPE, BKI. As a guess (based on zero facts) I would think that PER-HKT and PER-BKK could be tried, and even shifting MEL-BKK to QF and freeing up an aircraft for JQ there.

My $0.02
 
melpax
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - January 2020

Thu Jan 02, 2020 1:08 pm

travelhound wrote:



From where I sit the QANTAS management team have a bit of a country cub attitude. They are more inclined to take a strategy easy approach, than develop markets outside their core demographic.

As you state there are quite a few destinations in Asia that JQ could develop. With there being large groups of Asian resident populations living in Australia you would think JQ would be doing back flips to target these groups. Unfortunately, their core market seems to be centered around Caucasians.

If we go back to some of the original long haul JQ business models, Athens (Greece) and Frankfurt (Germany) were both destinations high on the JQ list. As such I would like to see more JQ 787's flying out of Perth.

I fly with SQ form Brisbane:Saigon on a regular basis. These SQ flights often have a large VN base of passengers through travelling to HCM. You would think direct BNE:HCM flights would be better suited than the current BNE:SYD:HCM or BNE:SIN:HCM options. Again, I would think JQ would be well placed for these flights.

I just can't imagine a situation where JQ would want to down size their international operations. JQ is well placed within the Australian market. I am not sure why they would not want to develop their network into new markets. It would give the airline the scale to be a credible option for the general flying public.


Most of the 'Asian' LCC market, in Melbourne at least, will fly on Air Asia or Scoot. You're right though, JQ needs to look at some new destinations, out of left field, maybe some African destinations out of PER?
Essendon - Whatever it takes......
 
timtam
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - January 2020

Thu Jan 02, 2020 3:09 pm

travelhound wrote:
I just can't imagine a situation where JQ would want to down size their international operations. JQ is well placed within the Australian market. I am not sure why they would not want to develop their network into new markets. It would give the airline the scale to be a credible option for the general flying public.


Its a warning shot fired at its pilots - if they continue with their costly industrial action then they can probably expect job losses.

You cannot fire staff for taking legal industrial action. However you can fire them for economic reasons.
 
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - January 2020

Thu Jan 02, 2020 6:10 pm

What do you all think about a PHX-SYD route?
 
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - January 2020

Thu Jan 02, 2020 6:22 pm

PHXWRLD wrote:
What do you all think about a PHX-SYD route?


I brought it up in the AA Network Thread as an option... a doubtful option. Doesn't mean it won't happen, but it's unlikely.
 
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - January 2020

Thu Jan 02, 2020 8:07 pm

melpax wrote:
An elderly passenger has passed away at CBR going into respiratory shock after getting off a QF flight from BNE.


There are some flights cancelled today. I assume this could be due to working outdoors e.g. ground crews and health risks to the operating flight crew.
 
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - January 2020

Fri Jan 03, 2020 2:45 am

PHXWRLD wrote:
What do you all think about a PHX-SYD route?


Connecting other Australian ports to say DFW and SFO will be a higher priority.

I guess big question is what does PHX offer that LAX/SFO/DFW dont?
 
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - January 2020

Fri Jan 03, 2020 2:52 am

SYD-PHX is probably way down the bottom of priorities for AA/QF JV (if it's there at all).
There's a better chance of SYD-SEA from QF/AS or DL/VA, and that's not likely to happen either (despite my "left field" prediction regarding SEA a few posts up).
 
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - January 2020

Fri Jan 03, 2020 3:07 am

SCFlyer wrote:
SYD-PHX is probably way down the bottom of priorities for AA/QF JV (if it's there at all).
There's a better chance of SYD-SEA from QF/AS or DL/VA, and that's not likely to happen either (despite my "left field" prediction regarding SEA a few posts up).


I agree, I don’t think PHX has a link to Asia? And it has a handful of European services, a flight to SYD seems somewhat far fetched to me and QF/AA have more important markets to send their aircraft. Do AA do any long haul ex PHX?
 
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - January 2020

Fri Jan 03, 2020 5:11 am

ZK-NBT wrote:
SCFlyer wrote:
SYD-PHX is probably way down the bottom of priorities for AA/QF JV (if it's there at all).
There's a better chance of SYD-SEA from QF/AS or DL/VA, and that's not likely to happen either (despite my "left field" prediction regarding SEA a few posts up).


I agree, I don’t think PHX has a link to Asia? And it has a handful of European services, a flight to SYD seems somewhat far fetched to me and QF/AA have more important markets to send their aircraft. Do AA do any long haul ex PHX?


Re, AA long haul ops out of PHX, a daily 777 to LHR.


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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - January 2020

Fri Jan 03, 2020 5:17 am

travelhound wrote:

As you state there are quite a few destinations in Asia that JQ could develop. With there being large groups of Asian resident populations living in Australia you would think JQ would be doing back flips to target these groups. Unfortunately, their core market seems to be centered around Caucasians.


Isn't their latest route OOL-ICN just that? I can't see it being operated for Australians to go to Korea... Its targeting Koreans coming to Australia just like the Tokyo flights target inbound tourists.
 
flyingisthebest
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - January 2020

Fri Jan 03, 2020 5:22 am

I could see a PHX-MEL done by AA? As the primary reason for these AU-US routes is to prevent double connects. Also with AU flights to the US it doesn’t have the luxury of being able to fly all over the US without issues. Not like how Asia/Europe flights have the luxury of connecting everywhere in the USA

BNE already has ORD for hub connections and SYD has DFW.

Logically PHX would make sense as it’s the one within a 787 range without needing to block seats.
 
Obzerva
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - January 2020

Fri Jan 03, 2020 5:31 am

Noticed that VA are running an A330 charter early on Anzac day ADL-CBR.

Do they do much A330 charter work domestically?
(wouldn't have thought they'd have a lot of wiggle room to do it, but I guess being a weekend maybe they can)
 
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - January 2020

Fri Jan 03, 2020 5:37 am

anstar wrote:
travelhound wrote:

As you state there are quite a few destinations in Asia that JQ could develop. With there being large groups of Asian resident populations living in Australia you would think JQ would be doing back flips to target these groups. Unfortunately, their core market seems to be centered around Caucasians.


Isn't their latest route OOL-ICN just that? I can't see it being operated for Australians to go to Korea... Its targeting Koreans coming to Australia just like the Tokyo flights target inbound tourists.


JQ's ICN flights also originate from MEL or SYD with a domestic tag flight (departing from the MEL or SYD international gates) to OOL depending on day. Ditto for the return, it continues to either SYD or MEL.
 
dredgy
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - January 2020

Fri Jan 03, 2020 5:44 am

flyingisthebest wrote:
I could see a PHX-MEL done by AA? As the primary reason for these AU-US routes is to prevent double connects. Also with AU flights to the US it doesn’t have the luxury of being able to fly all over the US without issues. Not like how Asia/Europe flights have the luxury of connecting everywhere in the USA

BNE already has ORD for hub connections and SYD has DFW.

Logically PHX would make sense as it’s the one within a 787 range without needing to block seats.


From Australia at least, there's just very little demand O&D - LAX, DFW, SFO, ORD all have strong demand in their own rights, and could likely all work without connecting traffic. Seattle is a bit more borderline, but I think it would work well with a mix of O&D and connection.

I know Jetstar internally talked about US flights a few years back and something obviously didn't stack up, but I think there would be enough O&D demand (for the right price) to San Diego (as an alternative to LAX) and Las Vegas (because Vegas). Portland maybe too at the moment as that's very trendy with Aussies.
 
CityRail
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - January 2020

Fri Jan 03, 2020 5:46 am

Re: Predictions for 2020:

I doubt VA/HX partnership will end, because HU definitely need HX to maintain their influx of aircraft into China, also that means VA will have to find other partners to fill the hole.

Here's my predictions for 2020:
1. VA will merge with Regional Express, with ZL flights operated under the VA code, therefore enhancing efficiency and market share for Velocity members to regional Australia communities and more effectively compete against Qantas
2. Virgin Australia to consider purchase 20 A350-900 to replace A330-200 and B777-300ER, provide a cost efficient single fleet benefit to the airlines as well as opportunities to grow in Asia
3. VA or VS to launch LHR-PER to compete against Qantas
4. VA to launch more north Asian destinations following tokyo success, such as TPE with BR and KIX.
5. Virgin Australia Group to record a profit after turnaround, predicting the share price to reach 50¢ at the end of the year.
 
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CraigAnderson
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - January 2020

Fri Jan 03, 2020 7:04 am

Just in case anybody has missed this, AirlineRatings declares The World's Safest Airlines, https://www.airlineratings.com/news/saf ... antas-2020

Qantas
Air New Zealand
EVA Air
Etihad
Qatar Airways
Singapore Airlines
Emirates
Alaska Airlines
Cathay Pacific
Virgin Australia
Hawaiian Airlines
Virgin Atlantic
TAP Portugal
SAS
Royal Jordanian
Swiss
Finnair
Lufthansa
Aer Lingus
KLM
 
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CraigAnderson
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - January 2020

Fri Jan 03, 2020 7:09 am

CityRail wrote:
Here's my predictions for 2020:
1. VA will merge with Regional Express, with ZL flights operated under the VA code, therefore enhancing efficiency and market share for Velocity members to regional Australia communities and more effectively compete against Qantas
2. Virgin Australia to consider purchase 20 A350-900 to replace A330-200 and B777-300ER, provide a cost efficient single fleet benefit to the airlines as well as opportunities to grow in Asia
3. VA or VS to launch LHR-PER to compete against Qantas
4. VA to launch more north Asian destinations following tokyo success, such as TPE with BR and KIX.
5. Virgin Australia Group to record a profit after turnaround, predicting the share price to reach 50¢ at the end of the year.


Has there been any speculation for (1) or is there any basis for this prediction?

(2) is not going to happen unless you think that 'consider' by definition means 'Somebody will suggest new aircraft and after a nanosecond's thought it will be clear that Virgin Australia can't afford them'. This "Virgin will buy 20 A350s" stuff sound more like a fervid fanboy dream.

3. Hahahaha, not going to happen. Not by a long shot.

4. Also not going to happen, Virgin Australia is stretched thin enough as is and only moved on HND because there was a slot pair up for grabs.
 
Obzerva
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - January 2020

Fri Jan 03, 2020 7:23 am

CityRail wrote:
Re: Predictions for 2020:

I doubt VA/HX partnership will end, because HU definitely need HX to maintain their influx of aircraft into China, also that means VA will have to find other partners to fill the hole.

Here's my predictions for 2020:
1. VA will merge with Regional Express, with ZL flights operated under the VA code, therefore enhancing efficiency and market share for Velocity members to regional Australia communities and more effectively compete against Qantas
2. Virgin Australia to consider purchase 20 A350-900 to replace A330-200 and B777-300ER, provide a cost efficient single fleet benefit to the airlines as well as opportunities to grow in Asia
3. VA or VS to launch LHR-PER to compete against Qantas
4. VA to launch more north Asian destinations following tokyo success, such as TPE with BR and KIX.
5. Virgin Australia Group to record a profit after turnaround, predicting the share price to reach 50¢ at the end of the year.


I don’t mean to be downbeat, but I’d be surprised if any of those occurred

1. ZL have a large ageing fleet, for any potential purchaser, that’s a lot of costs coming your way.
2. VA will need to consider a widebody fleet replacement in the medium term, won’t be this year.
3. Just can’t see it happening
4. VA only took HND because it was available, as they don’t have any available aircraft (refer point 2) they’ll have no aircraft to do that with. They’ve even gone hold on Beijing.
5. The CEO would basically be knighted if he can get that sort of return on shares, especially airline shares.
 
SYDSpotter
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - January 2020

Fri Jan 03, 2020 7:59 am

CityRail wrote:
Re: Predictions for 2020:

I doubt VA/HX partnership will end, because HU definitely need HX to maintain their influx of aircraft into China, also that means VA will have to find other partners to fill the hole.

Here's my predictions for 2020:
1. VA will merge with Regional Express, with ZL flights operated under the VA code, therefore enhancing efficiency and market share for Velocity members to regional Australia communities and more effectively compete against Qantas
2. Virgin Australia to consider purchase 20 A350-900 to replace A330-200 and B777-300ER, provide a cost efficient single fleet benefit to the airlines as well as opportunities to grow in Asia
3. VA or VS to launch LHR-PER to compete against Qantas
4. VA to launch more north Asian destinations following tokyo success, such as TPE with BR and KIX.
5. Virgin Australia Group to record a profit after turnaround, predicting the share price to reach 50¢ at the end of the year.


Predictions or a pipedream?

1) Highly unlikely, but not entirely out of the question.
2) Not going to happen, VA is not going to place an order to double their widebody fleet. Given they have delayed the purchase/deliveries of 737MAX's which actually turn a profit for them, they ain't going to buying widebodies anytime soon.
3) VS "could" launch the route. VA - no chance
4) No chance
5) Turn a profit yes, share price to go from $0.155 to $0.50, not a chance...
319_320_321_332_333_359_388 / 734_737_738_743_744_762_763_772_773_77W_788_789
 
moa999
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - January 2020

Fri Jan 03, 2020 8:51 am

I'm sure the Singaporean shareholders in Rex would sell at a premium (share price has basically traded flat for 15yrs), but equally don't see VA having the money to do it.

Rex makes money with an ageing fleet and limited Capex. The time of substantial fleet replacement is quickly approaching.
 
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SCFlyer
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - January 2020

Fri Jan 03, 2020 9:01 am

VA under Borghetti also botched the acquisition of Skywest.

Scurrah has been seen being generally conservative/somewhat centrist so far in his short time as VA CEO. PS is only spending CAPEX where he's sure that it may have a return - e.g applying for the Tokyo-Haneda slot and the Split Scimitar Winglets on the VAi 737 fleet. This is as opposed to the "big spending" ways of predecessor Borghetti.

Scurrah's conservative/centrist moves means he will not be in a hurry to acquire REX anytime soon, nor be in a rush to replace the limited widebody fleet, considering the recent sources through here and elsewhere in the media reporting that Scurrah is currently negotiating with the A330 lessors about favourable terms on the renewed A330 leases.

VA and VS won't be entering the Perth-London anytime soon (on either carrier as a JV) either considering the ink on the VA/VS JV had just dried and has only started to establish themselves.

In Summary: A VA/REX partnership is plausible, takeover = no chance. Decision on VA's widebody replacement will be in the medium term at the latest = say 4 years from now.
 
zkncj
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - January 2020

Fri Jan 03, 2020 9:30 am

CityRail wrote:
1. VA will merge with Regional Express, with ZL flights operated under the VA code, therefore enhancing efficiency and market share for Velocity members to regional Australia communities and more effectively compete against Qantas
.


If VA couldn’t make an small fleet of ATRs (well now operating an very small fleet) how would they make ZL’s huge fleet of Saab’s work?

ZL is going to need an major captain injection in the next 10 years to replace there fleet. Which is going to mean going to an larger fleet type eg ATR 42-600 which is going to change there bussiness mode etc.

One of the best option for ZL if they wanted an second hand fleet, would be praying for NZ to put there 23x Q300s up for sale (all end of line builds) and maybe pick up ones from QF two.

What happened to the JQ Q300s are they being return to to QLink.
 
eamondzhang
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - January 2020

Fri Jan 03, 2020 10:48 am

zkncj wrote:
CityRail wrote:
1. VA will merge with Regional Express, with ZL flights operated under the VA code, therefore enhancing efficiency and market share for Velocity members to regional Australia communities and more effectively compete against Qantas
.


If VA couldn’t make an small fleet of ATRs (well now operating an very small fleet) how would they make ZL’s huge fleet of Saab’s work?

ZL is going to need an major captain injection in the next 10 years to replace there fleet. Which is going to mean going to an larger fleet type eg ATR 42-600 which is going to change there bussiness mode etc.

One of the best option for ZL if they wanted an second hand fleet, would be praying for NZ to put there 23x Q300s up for sale (all end of line builds) and maybe pick up ones from QF two.

What happened to the JQ Q300s are they being return to to QLink.

Yes Q300s are coming back to QLink according to earlier threads.

The only realistic replacement for ZL currently is indeed ATR42-600 I reckon, and even that means quite a bit capacity boost to their flights which I doubt they fill most of the time. What they should do IMHO though is a better corporation with major carriers (e.g. VA) so customers can purchase long haul and short haul flights on one ticket.

Michael
 
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qf2220
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - January 2020

Fri Jan 03, 2020 2:00 pm

CityRail wrote:
1. VA will merge with Regional Express, with ZL flights operated under the VA code, therefore enhancing efficiency and market share for Velocity members to regional Australia communities and more effectively compete against Qantas


This might make a lot of commercial sense however im sure the ACCC will have big issues with it.
 
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qf2220
Posts: 1972
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - January 2020

Fri Jan 03, 2020 2:02 pm

eamondzhang wrote:
The only realistic replacement for ZL currently is indeed ATR42-600 I reckon, and even that means quite a bit capacity boost to their flights which I doubt they fill most of the time.


Disagree for the exact reason you raise - that capacity will not be filled and flights will have to be cut, or theyll lose money hand over fist.

No the Saabs are gong to be around for a long while yet.
 
N91
Posts: 18
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - January 2020

Sat Jan 04, 2020 2:25 am

qf2220 wrote:
eamondzhang wrote:
The only realistic replacement for ZL currently is indeed ATR42-600 I reckon, and even that means quite a bit capacity boost to their flights which I doubt they fill most of the time.


Disagree for the exact reason you raise - that capacity will not be filled and flights will have to be cut, or theyll lose money hand over fist.

No the Saabs are gong to be around for a long while yet.


Or this if it comes to fruition https://dra-aero.com/
 
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qf2220
Posts: 1972
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - January 2020

Sat Jan 04, 2020 3:33 am

N91 wrote:
qf2220 wrote:
eamondzhang wrote:
The only realistic replacement for ZL currently is indeed ATR42-600 I reckon, and even that means quite a bit capacity boost to their flights which I doubt they fill most of the time.


Disagree for the exact reason you raise - that capacity will not be filled and flights will have to be cut, or theyll lose money hand over fist.

No the Saabs are gong to be around for a long while yet.


Or this if it comes to fruition https://dra-aero.com/


Very interesting. I wonder if the high set* wing will be better for regional operations than the underbelly* wing?

* what are the technical terms for these please?!
 
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VirginFlyer
Posts: 5571
Joined: Sun Sep 10, 2000 12:27 pm

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - January 2020

Sat Jan 04, 2020 4:27 am

qf2220 wrote:
N91 wrote:
qf2220 wrote:

Disagree for the exact reason you raise - that capacity will not be filled and flights will have to be cut, or theyll lose money hand over fist.

No the Saabs are gong to be around for a long while yet.


Or this if it comes to fruition https://dra-aero.com/


Very interesting. I wonder if the high set* wing will be better for regional operations than the underbelly* wing?

* what are the technical terms for these please?!

High-wing and low-wing.

The question will be how much will a 328NG cost compared to keeping the Saabs around. I’m not sure the equation would come out in favour of the 328...

V/F
It is not for him to pride himself who loveth his own country, but rather for him who loveth the whole world. The earth is but one country, and mankind its citizens. —Bahá'u'lláh
 
Captdasbomb
Posts: 172
Joined: Sun Feb 03, 2019 2:08 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - January 2020

Sat Jan 04, 2020 12:42 pm

Quite amused at how all QF dream liners are all in the air right now & on time.Good night AJ
 
81819
Posts: 2008
Joined: Fri May 23, 2008 9:13 pm

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - January 2020

Sat Jan 04, 2020 3:13 pm

anstar wrote:
travelhound wrote:

As you state there are quite a few destinations in Asia that JQ could develop. With there being large groups of Asian resident populations living in Australia you would think JQ would be doing back flips to target these groups. Unfortunately, their core market seems to be centered around Caucasians.


Isn't their latest route OOL-ICN just that? I can't see it being operated for Australians to go to Korea... Its targeting Koreans coming to Australia just like the Tokyo flights target inbound tourists.


Not arguing with you, but (I suppose I am) if we go back ten years Jetstar were flying A330's out of Singapore. Somewhere along the continuum Jetstar (or QANTAS) decided the were going to put the Jetstar airlines into a holding mode.

Maybe Jetstar will start to grow again when the A321LR's arrive.
 
Ishrion
Posts: 2840
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - January 2020

Sun Jan 05, 2020 11:12 am

How have the fires been affecting flights? From what I’ve been seeing, it looks like it’s caused some flights to circle before landing and some to divert, assuming low visibility?
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