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Qantas Fleet Thread - 2020

Tue Dec 31, 2019 10:41 am

Welcome to the Qantas Fleet Thread 2020. Please continue to add your comments below

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Re: Qantas Fleet Thread 2020

Tue Dec 31, 2019 10:41 am

Fleet update coming
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moa999
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Re: Qantas Fleet Thread 2020

Tue Dec 31, 2019 11:09 am

Looking forward to the fleet list.,

Will 2020 be the last of the QF 747 era or will a few kick on for the next peak season?

With only 3 787s left on order with mid-year deliveries and I suspect too late to order more for this year delivery, and 6 744ERs left, QF is looking at a capacity drop next Xmas

(Unless a few 788s move from Jetstar as the 320neoLRs start arriving)
 
Flyerqf
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Re: Qantas Fleet Thread 2020

Sun Jan 05, 2020 12:20 pm

moa999 wrote:
Looking forward to the fleet list.,

Will 2020 be the last of the QF 747 era or will a few kick on for the next peak season?

With only 3 787s left on order with mid-year deliveries and I suspect too late to order more for this year delivery, and 6 744ERs left, QF is looking at a capacity drop next Xmas


Really only YVR that will be lost. There are also extra SCL flights during peak season this year but this route goes daily with extra capacity when switching to 789. There may be a loss of the extra SYD to LAX flights currently 2pw this peak season. But these are probably offset by the extra USA flights on the 789 routes.

Can’t see the 744 staying on beyond end of 2020 unless the A380 refurbs are not complete.

Speaking of which, looks like 2 more will go in for refurb in late Jan & mid-Feb. QF17 last flight for the season is on 24/1 and the A380 comes off QF127/128 on 13/2.
 
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Re: Qantas Fleet Thread - 2020

Sun Jan 05, 2020 11:07 pm

And wouldn't be surprised if A380 gets pulled off QF127/128 earlier given demand.
 
RainerBoeing777
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Re: Qantas Fleet Thread - 2020

Sun Jan 05, 2020 11:14 pm

With so many high-density routes it was an option to replace the B747 with B787 one by one, QF bought little B787, they need to expand their fleet for more new routes and increase services, the remaining B744 had to be replaced by 10-12 B787 not by 6
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eamondzhang
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Re: Qantas Fleet Thread - 2020

Sun Jan 05, 2020 11:16 pm

RainerBoeing777 wrote:
With so many high-density routes it was an option to replace the B747 with B787 one by one, QF bought little B787, they need to expand their fleet for more new routes and increase services, the remaining B744 had to be replaced by 10-12 B787 not by 6

And here we go again. I reckon we could really start a dedicated thread called "QF NEEDS MORE CAPACITY" for these kind of repetitive topic.

Michael
 
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Re: Qantas Fleet Thread - 2020

Mon Jan 06, 2020 12:47 am

RainerBoeing777 wrote:
was an option to replace the B747 with B787 one by one, QF bought little B787, they need to expand their fleet for more new routes and increase services, the remaining B744 had to be replaced by 10-12 B787 not by 6


At June 2017, before Qantas got its first 787 they had 11 747s in the fleet, a number that had been unchanged for a few years.
By the end of 2020 they will have 14 789s in mainline
 
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Re: Qantas Fleet Thread - 2020

Mon Jan 06, 2020 1:06 am

moa999 wrote:
RainerBoeing777 wrote:
was an option to replace the B747 with B787 one by one, QF bought little B787, they need to expand their fleet for more new routes and increase services, the remaining B744 had to be replaced by 10-12 B787 not by 6


At June 2017, before Qantas got its first 787 they had 11 747s in the fleet, a number that had been unchanged for a few years.
By the end of 2020 they will have 14 789s in mainline

Tell me RainerBoeing777 are you going to provide the capital required to buy these extra aircraft? Qantas, like most Australian companies are severly constrianed when it comes to raising captial, our captial markets are quite small AND by law QF MUST raise 50% of its total captial from Australian citizens! [Sale of Qantas Act]. And you can't just keep on leasing aircraft, there are limits there too.

As moa999 says they currently have 11 B789 in service and three more for delivery in first half of 2020 so they already match the number of B744s they had before the B789 started ariving. IMHO despite what has been said by QF officals, some or all of the B744ERs will hang around until the Project Sunrise aircraft start arriving in 2022/2023 when they will reach 20 years of age, the normal time QF start replaceing most aircraft types.

As AJ has said many times QF will expand & replace its fleet in a timely manner, consistant with prudent capital expenditure limits. Sound like sound business practise to me!

Gemuser
 
RainerBoeing777
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Re: Qantas Fleet Thread - 2020

Mon Jan 06, 2020 1:42 am

Gemuser wrote:
moa999 wrote:
RainerBoeing777 wrote:
was an option to replace the B747 with B787 one by one, QF bought little B787, they need to expand their fleet for more new routes and increase services, the remaining B744 had to be replaced by 10-12 B787 not by 6


At June 2017, before Qantas got its first 787 they had 11 747s in the fleet, a number that had been unchanged for a few years.
By the end of 2020 they will have 14 789s in mainline

Tell me RainerBoeing777 are you going to provide the capital required to buy these extra aircraft? Qantas, like most Australian companies are severly constrianed when it comes to raising captial, our captial markets are quite small AND by law QF MUST raise 50% of its total captial from Australian citizens! [Sale of Qantas Act]. And you can't just keep on leasing aircraft, there are limits there too.

As moa999 says they currently have 11 B789 in service and three more for delivery in first half of 2020 so they already match the number of B744s they had before the B789 started ariving. IMHO despite what has been said by QF officals, some or all of the B744ERs will hang around until the Project Sunrise aircraft start arriving in 2022/2023 when they will reach 20 years of age, the normal time QF start replaceing most aircraft types.

As AJ has said many times QF will expand & replace its fleet in a timely manner, consistant with prudent capital expenditure limits. Sound like sound business practise to me!

Gemuser



I don't see anything commercial dramatically reduce capacity on a route like Tokyo Haneda from B747 to B787, keep flying with A380 from DFW when flying with 2 B787 is better and you don't have the need to block seats, the B747 still has a 2020 withdrawal date and if they do not extend the life of the B747, many important routes will reduce a lot of capacity and also with an Approved JV is the time to expand
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Re: Qantas Fleet Thread - 2020

Mon Jan 06, 2020 2:07 am

RainerBoeing777 wrote:
Gemuser wrote:
moa999 wrote:

At June 2017, before Qantas got its first 787 they had 11 747s in the fleet, a number that had been unchanged for a few years.
By the end of 2020 they will have 14 789s in mainline

Tell me RainerBoeing777 are you going to provide the capital required to buy these extra aircraft? Qantas, like most Australian companies are severly constrianed when it comes to raising captial, our captial markets are quite small AND by law QF MUST raise 50% of its total captial from Australian citizens! [Sale of Qantas Act]. And you can't just keep on leasing aircraft, there are limits there too.

As moa999 says they currently have 11 B789 in service and three more for delivery in first half of 2020 so they already match the number of B744s they had before the B789 started ariving. IMHO despite what has been said by QF officals, some or all of the B744ERs will hang around until the Project Sunrise aircraft start arriving in 2022/2023 when they will reach 20 years of age, the normal time QF start replaceing most aircraft types.

As AJ has said many times QF will expand & replace its fleet in a timely manner, consistant with prudent capital expenditure limits. Sound like sound business practise to me!

Gemuser



I don't see anything commercial dramatically reduce capacity on a route like Tokyo Haneda from B747 to B787, keep flying with A380 from DFW when flying with 2 B787 is better and you don't have the need to block seats, the B747 still has a 2020 withdrawal date and if they do not extend the life of the B747, many important routes will reduce a lot of capacity and also with an Approved JV is the time to expand

You didn't listern! Where is the money coming from to expand like you want. QF have a well developed capital expinditure plan to allow expansion, I think they know better than you or I what makes the most sense.

Gemuser
 
moa999
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Re: Qantas Fleet Thread - 2020

Mon Jan 06, 2020 4:06 am

And any international expansion is already effectively planned for early 2023 with Project Sunrise using A350s, subject to regulatory and wage agreements.

In the meantime Jetstar has 18 321neoLRs due for delivery in the next few years which I suspect takes up much of the group Capex budget.
 
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Re: Qantas Fleet Thread - 2020

Mon Jan 06, 2020 5:19 am

Gemuser wrote:
RainerBoeing777 wrote:
Gemuser wrote:
Tell me RainerBoeing777 are you going to provide the capital required to buy these extra aircraft? Qantas, like most Australian companies are severly constrianed when it comes to raising captial, our captial markets are quite small AND by law QF MUST raise 50% of its total captial from Australian citizens! [Sale of Qantas Act]. And you can't just keep on leasing aircraft, there are limits there too.

As moa999 says they currently have 11 B789 in service and three more for delivery in first half of 2020 so they already match the number of B744s they had before the B789 started ariving. IMHO despite what has been said by QF officals, some or all of the B744ERs will hang around until the Project Sunrise aircraft start arriving in 2022/2023 when they will reach 20 years of age, the normal time QF start replaceing most aircraft types.

As AJ has said many times QF will expand & replace its fleet in a timely manner, consistant with prudent capital expenditure limits. Sound like sound business practise to me!

Gemuser



I don't see anything commercial dramatically reduce capacity on a route like Tokyo Haneda from B747 to B787, keep flying with A380 from DFW when flying with 2 B787 is better and you don't have the need to block seats, the B747 still has a 2020 withdrawal date and if they do not extend the life of the B747, many important routes will reduce a lot of capacity and also with an Approved JV is the time to expand

You didn't listern! Where is the money coming from to expand like you want. QF have a well developed capital expinditure plan to allow expansion, I think they know better than you or I what makes the most sense.

Gemuser


QF has a number of balls in the air at the moment in relation to its fleet which need clarifying before another 789 order:

- We'll get a decision on Project Sunrise and the 12 A350's in the first quarter of this year;
- JQ will start getting A321 NEO's. So they potentially have less need for the 788's they have;
- QF's final 789's on order arrive.

If Sunrise goes ahead then I think the chances of a further 789 order diminish due to Capital Constraints. If it doesn't go ahead then I think we'll see a follow on order for some more 789's.

Depending on how the JQ talks go, and depending on how the A321NEO's are going to be utilised, we could see JQ's need for the number of 788's they have decrease. If they do then there would be a home for them in QF which would allow QF mainline aircraft for expansion while not needing to buy new. So that could potentialy happen irrespecitve of the Sunrise Order.

Finally we see the last 3 789's arrive and the final operating schedule for the entire 789 fleet. The 789's are being used to HKG so there is already some potential slack for further 789 frequencies without needing to buy more.

So all in all it's going to be an interesting year of transition for QF International.
 
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Re: Qantas Fleet Thread - 2020

Mon Jan 06, 2020 5:21 am

eamondzhang wrote:
RainerBoeing777 wrote:
With so many high-density routes it was an option to replace the B747 with B787 one by one, QF bought little B787, they need to expand their fleet for more new routes and increase services, the remaining B744 had to be replaced by 10-12 B787 not by 6

And here we go again. I reckon we could really start a dedicated thread called "QF NEEDS MORE CAPACITY" for these kind of repetitive topic.

Michael


QF have added quite a lot of flying ex MEL/BNE with 789s and A330s over the last few years NRT/SFO etc soon BNE-ORD.
 
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Re: Qantas Fleet Thread - 2020

Mon Jan 06, 2020 7:11 am

ZK-NBT wrote:
eamondzhang wrote:
RainerBoeing777 wrote:
With so many high-density routes it was an option to replace the B747 with B787 one by one, QF bought little B787, they need to expand their fleet for more new routes and increase services, the remaining B744 had to be replaced by 10-12 B787 not by 6

And here we go again. I reckon we could really start a dedicated thread called "QF NEEDS MORE CAPACITY" for these kind of repetitive topic.

Michael


QF have added quite a lot of flying ex MEL/BNE with 789s and A330s over the last few years NRT/SFO etc soon BNE-ORD.


And just adding, QF appear to be steering towards point-to-point with the introduction of B789’s.

SYD/MEL,BNE-SFO
SYD//MEL-HND, BNE-NRT
SYD-JNB (PER-JNB withdrawn due to PAPL/QF dispute)

SYD-DFW & highly speculated MEL-DFW further down the track just to name a few.



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Re: Qantas Fleet Thread - 2020

Mon Jan 06, 2020 9:29 am

Thanks Sydscott for your post explains it well. Qantas has another possibility when they end Sydney to Beijing service on 28 March this will free up 5 days of A330 flying. Which could then be redirected to HKG. Therefore 5 days a week of 789 capacity could be used for a new service elsewhere. Perhaps to JNB or even YVR.
 
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Re: Qantas Fleet Thread - 2020

Mon Jan 06, 2020 11:21 am

RainerBoeing777 wrote:


I don't see anything commercial dramatically reduce capacity on a route like Tokyo Haneda from B747 to B787, keep flying with A380 from DFW when flying with 2 B787 is better and you don't have the need to block seats, the B747 still has a 2020 withdrawal date and if they do not extend the life of the B747, many important routes will reduce a lot of capacity and also with an Approved JV is the time to expand


You are looking at things way too simplistically. The capacity lost is absolutely been covered, just in different ways. The only market where capacity wasn't directly back-filled from the replacement of the 747s is HKG, and that is not necessarily a bad thing given that demand to Hong Kong has dropped quite significantly over the past 6-8 months.

Take San Francisco. Down-gauging SYD-SFO removes 896 seats from the market. On face value that looks like a big hit, but the implicit assumption is that Qantas regularly sold 350 seats between Sydney and San Francisco O&D. That is actually quite unlikely, and Qantas can easily address this by taking a more holistic view of the USA market. Adding BNE-SFO and BNE-ORD adds 944 weekly seats to the market (based on the capacity lost from a 3x weekly QF55/56 - I am well aware it is daily at the moment for peak season). There is therefore modest growth in capacity in the Australia to USA market, just served over different ports.

The same applies in the Japanese market, where taking a more holistic view of the market address the lost capacity if SYD-HND were to become a 787. Down-gauging SYD-HND to a 787 will - again - remove 896 seats from the market. If they were to increase KIX to daily that would reduce the deficit in the Japanese market to only 300 weekly seats. Adding an extra weekly flight to CTS in peak season would reduce the deficit to only 2 weekly seats.

IMHO this is what we will see Qantas do with the Japan market. SYD-HND will become very highly focussed on premium O&D, with the 787's premium heavy configuration well suited to this role, with more leisure oriented traffic shifted around other ports. Dropping 300 weekly seats in low season (or even 896 for that matter) would be a relatively smart strategy at this stage with VA and NH adding significant additional capacity to the market which will dilute yields. Qantas absolutely have the means to make up the lost capacity, but I wouldn't be surprised if we see additional seasonal fluctuation across the non-TYO ports to match (add) capacity in peak season, while reducing capacity below current levels in low season.
Last edited by RyanairGuru on Mon Jan 06, 2020 11:33 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Qantas Fleet Thread - 2020

Mon Jan 06, 2020 11:28 am

NZ516 wrote:
Therefore 5 days a week of 789 capacity could be used for a new service elsewhere. Perhaps to JNB or even YVR.


There will be a number of changes over the next 12 months as the additional 3 frames are added, but I am increasingly thinking that the final distribution 12 months from now will look not-dissimilar to the "option one" I posted in the December Australian Aviation thread. It really does seem like the most sensible distribution of scarce resources, and once I realised how easily they could back-fill SYD-HND over other ports without even launching an additional SYD-NRT (which is still a possibility) I was all-but-convinced that HND would go 787.

I have reproduced that option below:



787s = 14

MEL-PER-LHR + MEL-SFO + MEL-LAX = 4
BNE-LAX-JFK = 2
BNE-SFO + BNE-ORD = 2
SYD-SFO + SYD-SCL = 3
SYD-HND = 2 (possibly with an AKL turn in between)

TOTAL: 13/14

A380s = 12

SYD-SIN-LHR + SYD-JNB = 4 (*)
SYD-LAX = 2
MEL-LAX = 2
SYD-DFW = 2

TOTAL: 10/12 (**)

(*) With a small adjustment to the schedule QF63/64 can be operated with one frame between QF2 -> QF1
(**) Allows for maintenance/refurb plus QF35/36 and/or QF127/128 to be seasonally up-gauged - QF35/36 year-round A380 once refurbishments are complete would mean 11/12
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qantas747
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Re: Qantas Fleet Thread - 2020

Mon Jan 06, 2020 12:13 pm

RyanairGuru wrote:
NZ516 wrote:
Therefore 5 days a week of 789 capacity could be used for a new service elsewhere. Perhaps to JNB or even YVR.


There will be a number of changes over the next 12 months as the additional 3 frames are added, but I am increasingly thinking that the final distribution 12 months from now will look not-dissimilar to the "option one" I posted in the December Australian Aviation thread. It really does seem like the most sensible distribution of scarce resources, and once I realised how easily they could back-fill SYD-HND over other ports without even launching an additional SYD-NRT (which is still a possibility) I was all-but-convinced that HND would go 787.

I have reproduced that option below:



787s = 14

MEL-PER-LHR + MEL-SFO + MEL-LAX = 4
BNE-LAX-JFK = 2
BNE-SFO + BNE-ORD = 2
SYD-SFO + SYD-SCL = 3
SYD-HND = 2 (possibly with an AKL turn in between)

TOTAL: 13/14

A380s = 12

SYD-SIN-LHR + SYD-JNB = 4 (*)
SYD-LAX = 2
MEL-LAX = 2
SYD-DFW = 2

TOTAL: 10/12 (**)

(*) With a small adjustment to the schedule QF63/64 can be operated with one frame between QF2 -> QF1
(**) Allows for maintenance/refurb plus QF35/36 and/or QF127/128 to be seasonally up-gauged - QF35/36 year-round A380 once refurbishments are complete would mean 11/12


I agree, that SYD-HND will likely go 789 with KIX increased to balance capacity. I can also see JQ adding SYD-NRT as A321s arrive which will help balance out capacity.

I dont think that JNB will go A380 full time.. QF will work their new assets hard and SYD-JNB will go daily 789 with perhaps a seasonal upgrade to A380. JNB currently interchanges with HND well (JNB-SYD comes back 1535 then can operate overnight to HND) so would only use 3 aircraft daily, and the full day on the ground in HND will be a good break for the plane in the event of delays allowing the full use of the fleet.

789 daily does drop overall capacity to JNB, but hopefully PAPL/QF will sort their differences and add in a 3x PER-JNB to balance capacity.

Will be interesting to see what unfolds!
 
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Re: Qantas Fleet Thread - 2020

Mon Jan 06, 2020 12:48 pm

Yes it will be very interesting to see what unfolds.
One 787 is currently flying the MEL to HKG daily rotation that may stay on. Keeping all 14 in the fleet busy along with all the other flying posted by RyanairGuru above.
The 787s are also flying harder than the 747s they replace which is another example of how Qantas is getting better at scheduling. So in effect 14 787s will be doing more hours in the sky than say 14 747s use to do. One example is with 3 hours on the ground in SFO on the MEL flight.
 
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Re: Qantas Fleet Thread - 2020

Tue Jan 07, 2020 2:04 am

qantas747 wrote:
RyanairGuru wrote:
NZ516 wrote:
Therefore 5 days a week of 789 capacity could be used for a new service elsewhere. Perhaps to JNB or even YVR.


There will be a number of changes over the next 12 months as the additional 3 frames are added, but I am increasingly thinking that the final distribution 12 months from now will look not-dissimilar to the "option one" I posted in the December Australian Aviation thread. It really does seem like the most sensible distribution of scarce resources, and once I realised how easily they could back-fill SYD-HND over other ports without even launching an additional SYD-NRT (which is still a possibility) I was all-but-convinced that HND would go 787.

I have reproduced that option below:



787s = 14

MEL-PER-LHR + MEL-SFO + MEL-LAX = 4
BNE-LAX-JFK = 2
BNE-SFO + BNE-ORD = 2
SYD-SFO + SYD-SCL = 3
SYD-HND = 2 (possibly with an AKL turn in between)

TOTAL: 13/14

A380s = 12

SYD-SIN-LHR + SYD-JNB = 4 (*)
SYD-LAX = 2
MEL-LAX = 2
SYD-DFW = 2

TOTAL: 10/12 (**)

(*) With a small adjustment to the schedule QF63/64 can be operated with one frame between QF2 -> QF1
(**) Allows for maintenance/refurb plus QF35/36 and/or QF127/128 to be seasonally up-gauged - QF35/36 year-round A380 once refurbishments are complete would mean 11/12


I agree, that SYD-HND will likely go 789 with KIX increased to balance capacity. I can also see JQ adding SYD-NRT as A321s arrive which will help balance out capacity.

I dont think that JNB will go A380 full time.. QF will work their new assets hard and SYD-JNB will go daily 789 with perhaps a seasonal upgrade to A380. JNB currently interchanges with HND well (JNB-SYD comes back 1535 then can operate overnight to HND) so would only use 3 aircraft daily, and the full day on the ground in HND will be a good break for the plane in the event of delays allowing the full use of the fleet.

789 daily does drop overall capacity to JNB, but hopefully PAPL/QF will sort their differences and add in a 3x PER-JNB to balance capacity.

Will be interesting to see what unfolds!


Not forgetting that PER-JNB was going to be on an A332 as well. So they were not going to use 787 capacity for it.

In relation to Japan, I think Ryanair Guru is correct. In saying that I also think that if QF needs extra capacity for economy traffic we'll see JQ deployed there rather than more mainline service from SYD for the simple reason that they will be the ones who have aircraft, 788's, that can be re-deployed to NRT and out of DPS once A321NEO's arrive. Plus JQ already has twice daily to NRT so adding another service won't be an issue for them. Also agree that QF could work on building out KIX service along with the seasonal CTS service. QF as a group will have 5 daily Tokyo flights next year so maybe increasing both KIX and JAL co-operation will be the way to plug any deficiency in seats QF has with the 744 leaving the fleet.

Either way it's going to be a very interesting year!
 
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RyanairGuru
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Re: Qantas Fleet Thread - 2020

Tue Jan 07, 2020 3:45 am

qantas747 wrote:
RyanairGuru wrote:
NZ516 wrote:
Therefore 5 days a week of 789 capacity could be used for a new service elsewhere. Perhaps to JNB or even YVR.


There will be a number of changes over the next 12 months as the additional 3 frames are added, but I am increasingly thinking that the final distribution 12 months from now will look not-dissimilar to the "option one" I posted in the December Australian Aviation thread. It really does seem like the most sensible distribution of scarce resources, and once I realised how easily they could back-fill SYD-HND over other ports without even launching an additional SYD-NRT (which is still a possibility) I was all-but-convinced that HND would go 787.

I have reproduced that option below:



787s = 14

MEL-PER-LHR + MEL-SFO + MEL-LAX = 4
BNE-LAX-JFK = 2
BNE-SFO + BNE-ORD = 2
SYD-SFO + SYD-SCL = 3
SYD-HND = 2 (possibly with an AKL turn in between)

TOTAL: 13/14

A380s = 12

SYD-SIN-LHR + SYD-JNB = 4 (*)
SYD-LAX = 2
MEL-LAX = 2
SYD-DFW = 2

TOTAL: 10/12 (**)

(*) With a small adjustment to the schedule QF63/64 can be operated with one frame between QF2 -> QF1
(**) Allows for maintenance/refurb plus QF35/36 and/or QF127/128 to be seasonally up-gauged - QF35/36 year-round A380 once refurbishments are complete would mean 11/12


I agree, that SYD-HND will likely go 789 with KIX increased to balance capacity. I can also see JQ adding SYD-NRT as A321s arrive which will help balance out capacity.

I dont think that JNB will go A380 full time.. QF will work their new assets hard and SYD-JNB will go daily 789 with perhaps a seasonal upgrade to A380. JNB currently interchanges with HND well (JNB-SYD comes back 1535 then can operate overnight to HND) so would only use 3 aircraft daily, and the full day on the ground in HND will be a good break for the plane in the event of delays allowing the full use of the fleet.

789 daily does drop overall capacity to JNB, but hopefully PAPL/QF will sort their differences and add in a 3x PER-JNB to balance capacity.

Will be interesting to see what unfolds!


While a 787 to JNB would probably make more sense than an A380, where do you propose a free 787 comes from? Noting that 11 787s are required for the routes already announced, you are suggesting that they schedule 14/14 if both HND and JNB are operated by 787s.

Time will tell, but I am pretty sure JNB will be an A380 route, maybe 4/5 weekly off-season and daily in peak. Being able to (basically) serve it with just one frame makes it very likely IMHO. There is so little slack in the fleet that the most optimum fleet distribution takes a back seat to what is feasible.
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Re: Qantas Fleet Thread - 2020

Tue Jan 07, 2020 3:56 am

Hopefully the 747s stick around longer than the years end, as at least they provide a bit of operational capacity especially when there are tech or operational delays. The A380s and 787s wont have any slack to provide cover and with future issues there may be even worse delays / cancellations than we have seen over the past year when an A380 goes tech and where the 747s has boosted domestic recovery after weather delays.
 
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rtav
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Re: Qantas Fleet Thread - 2020

Tue Jan 07, 2020 4:07 am

jrfspa320 wrote:
Hopefully the 747s stick around longer than the years end, as at least they provide a bit of operational capacity especially when there are tech or operational delays. The A380s and 787s wont have any slack to provide cover and with future issues there may be even worse delays / cancellations than we have seen over the past year when an A380 goes tech and where the 747s has boosted domestic recovery after weather delays.


They could possibly do what Malaysia Airlines did with their B747’s before they received the A350’s. They could put the 747’s into storage and pull them out if they’re needed. Potentially until Project sunrise aircraft arrive or additional 787’s arrive.
 
Sydscott
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Re: Qantas Fleet Thread - 2020

Tue Jan 07, 2020 6:22 am

rtav wrote:
jrfspa320 wrote:
Hopefully the 747s stick around longer than the years end, as at least they provide a bit of operational capacity especially when there are tech or operational delays. The A380s and 787s wont have any slack to provide cover and with future issues there may be even worse delays / cancellations than we have seen over the past year when an A380 goes tech and where the 747s has boosted domestic recovery after weather delays.


They could possibly do what Malaysia Airlines did with their B747’s before they received the A350’s. They could put the 747’s into storage and pull them out if they’re needed. Potentially until Project sunrise aircraft arrive or additional 787’s arrive.


As per Ryanairguru's analysis above, both the A380 and 787 fleets will have some spare capacity to account for maintenance and other issues. A380's going tech are only an issue now because you have 1 out for reconfiguration for basically the rest of the year. That's why the A380 that had it's door crunched in Sydney was such a nuisance but normally QF does have A380 capacity that it can deploy.
 
OffTheRails
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Re: Qantas Fleet Thread - 2020

Tue Jan 07, 2020 9:10 am

I still think Qantas will take on some ex Jetstar 787s once the A321s starts arriving.

As for Tokyo and the withdrawal of the 747 i'll throw my prediction in with the 787 replacing the 747 SYD to HND and an additional a330 SYD to NRT replacing the slot left from the MEL service moving to HND. I do think peoples ideas of a possible Jetstar service from Sydney to Tokyo is very plausible as well
 
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Re: Qantas Fleet Thread - 2020

Tue Jan 07, 2020 11:39 am

RyanairGuru wrote:
qantas747 wrote:
RyanairGuru wrote:

There will be a number of changes over the next 12 months as the additional 3 frames are added, but I am increasingly thinking that the final distribution 12 months from now will look not-dissimilar to the "option one" I posted in the December Australian Aviation thread. It really does seem like the most sensible distribution of scarce resources, and once I realised how easily they could back-fill SYD-HND over other ports without even launching an additional SYD-NRT (which is still a possibility) I was all-but-convinced that HND would go 787.

I have reproduced that option below:



787s = 14

MEL-PER-LHR + MEL-SFO + MEL-LAX = 4
BNE-LAX-JFK = 2
BNE-SFO + BNE-ORD = 2
SYD-SFO + SYD-SCL = 3
SYD-HND = 2 (possibly with an AKL turn in between)

TOTAL: 13/14

A380s = 12

SYD-SIN-LHR + SYD-JNB = 4 (*)
SYD-LAX = 2
MEL-LAX = 2
SYD-DFW = 2

TOTAL: 10/12 (**)

(*) With a small adjustment to the schedule QF63/64 can be operated with one frame between QF2 -> QF1
(**) Allows for maintenance/refurb plus QF35/36 and/or QF127/128 to be seasonally up-gauged - QF35/36 year-round A380 once refurbishments are complete would mean 11/12


I agree, that SYD-HND will likely go 789 with KIX increased to balance capacity. I can also see JQ adding SYD-NRT as A321s arrive which will help balance out capacity.

I dont think that JNB will go A380 full time.. QF will work their new assets hard and SYD-JNB will go daily 789 with perhaps a seasonal upgrade to A380. JNB currently interchanges with HND well (JNB-SYD comes back 1535 then can operate overnight to HND) so would only use 3 aircraft daily, and the full day on the ground in HND will be a good break for the plane in the event of delays allowing the full use of the fleet.

789 daily does drop overall capacity to JNB, but hopefully PAPL/QF will sort their differences and add in a 3x PER-JNB to balance capacity.

Will be interesting to see what unfolds!


While a 787 to JNB would probably make more sense than an A380, where do you propose a free 787 comes from? Noting that 11 787s are required for the routes already announced, you are suggesting that they schedule 14/14 if both HND and JNB are operated by 787s.

Time will tell, but I am pretty sure JNB will be an A380 route, maybe 4/5 weekly off-season and daily in peak. Being able to (basically) serve it with just one frame makes it very likely IMHO. There is so little slack in the fleet that the most optimum fleet distribution takes a back seat to what is feasible.


I think you are right about that as it would be too tight to squeeze in the extra flying for the 787s to do JNB as well. With the last 3 787s can do a SYD SCL SYD HND SYD SCL pattern. Also the seasonal Vancouver route could go by the end of the year when the last 747s retire.
Last edited by NZ516 on Tue Jan 07, 2020 11:43 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
Fuling
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Re: Qantas Fleet Thread - 2020

Tue Jan 07, 2020 11:42 am

What about if the ex-PEK A332 went SYD-NRT and a JQ B787 going to YVR for the NW season later this year?
 
NZ516
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Re: Qantas Fleet Thread - 2020

Tue Jan 07, 2020 12:24 pm

Fuling wrote:
What about if the ex-PEK A332 went SYD-NRT and a JQ B787 going to YVR for the NW season later this year?


That could work out for SYD to NRT after 28 March but Beijing is only 5 per week.

Regarding JQ SYD to YVR they need to free up some 787 capacity to do it, when does the first 321NEO arrive? If they get some mid year and deploy them on DPS could see it able to work. Maybe JQ could give one 787 to Qantas once it is surplus. So Qantas can keep services to Canada which might be a better match against AC.
 
moa999
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Re: Qantas Fleet Thread - 2020

Tue Jan 07, 2020 12:33 pm

Can the 788s even make YVR in JQ config? And if converted is lack of proper crew rest an issue?
 
NZ516
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Re: Qantas Fleet Thread - 2020

Tue Jan 07, 2020 12:41 pm

moa999 wrote:
Can the 788s even make YVR in JQ config? And if converted is lack of proper crew rest an issue?


Very good questions I don't know but they might not be suitable for the route
 
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Re: Qantas Fleet Thread - 2020

Tue Jan 07, 2020 12:58 pm

NZ516 wrote:
moa999 wrote:
Can the 788s even make YVR in JQ config? And if converted is lack of proper crew rest an issue?


Very good questions I don't know but they might not be suitable for the route


The 788 in JQ configuration can not make it, well not with a reasonable load
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travelhound
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Re: Qantas Fleet Thread - 2020

Tue Jan 07, 2020 1:37 pm

OffTheRails wrote:
I still think Qantas will take on some ex Jetstar 787s once the A321s starts arriving.

As for Tokyo and the withdrawal of the 747 i'll throw my prediction in with the 787 replacing the 747 SYD to HND and an additional a330 SYD to NRT replacing the slot left from the MEL service moving to HND. I do think peoples ideas of a possible Jetstar service from Sydney to Tokyo is very plausible as well


Did some research on JQ recently as I have been unable to make sense of their fleet strategy in relationship to their original route fleet plans.

To establish a basis for the research I referenced academic material on LCC's owned by a full service carrier (Airline within a Airline - AWA).

One of the initial critism's of the AWA model revolved around one airline (typically the LCC) canabalising the other. As such AWA business strategies have revolved around each airline having very distinct markets with little overlap.

If we go back to 2014 CAPA were projecting JQ as the growth international airline for QANTAS. This was based on the current state of QF International business and its ability to compete with the other major airlines operating in and out of the country.

As we all know, with the restructure of QANTAS the QF international business has had a resurgence of late. This has resulted in not only in new aircraft, but new destinations and the prospect of "disrupter" Sunrise routes. My observations suggest QF and not JQ will be the growth vehicle for QANTAS's international operations going forward.

As such, the expansion of JQ's international route network may not be based upon the viability of a route, but the viability of a market within a QF/JQ business structure. In other words JQ flying routes similar to QF could ultimately result in lower yields for the QF group (classic micro/macro economics).

If we look at AirAsiaX, another longhaul LCC in Asia, it has had very mixed results with establishing a viable market, which has subsequently resulted in very poor financial results. Scoot, is said to also be a very poor financial performer.

If we compare successful and unsuccessful LCC's, there is a common theme revolving around their ability to establish themselves as a reputable provider of Regular Passenger Transport services and profitability.

For example AirAsia is often the airline of choice as it has the scale to offer a full range of destinations with regular services. Other LCC groups (TigerAir, Jetstar Asia) have struggled to create this scale.

.....and this is the dilemma for JQ international. For them to create the scale they would probably need make a considerable investment in the business.

With two very strong expanding LCC's operating in Asia, a Monte Carlo analysis could suggest a blood bath for an overly optimistic expansion of JQ's Asian international operations.

Sure a market could work over the shorter term, but over the longer term the prospects mat not be as good!

I would like to see JQ international base more of it's 787 fleet out of Perth. The aircraft could be used to establish regular airline services to Italy, Greece and Germany. I also suspect Auckland could eventually become a viable base for establishing regular airline services to the Americas, but this would be more of a long term plan (both scenarios would require reconfigured or new 787's).

Another consideration is QF's frequent flyer program. If we go back five years QF reinstated services to Coffs Harbour and the Sunshine Coast on the basis their frequent flyers did not want to fly with JQ. This in effect went against the classic AWA model where services did not overlap.

As such we could be seeing a different model/theory emerging where we have an Airline within an Airline within a Frequent Flyer Program. The rules of engagement could be fundamentally different, because ultimately the frequent flyer wants to use their points for leasure, not business destinations.

I suspect there are good reasons why QF are focusing in QF International and not JQ. As others have said 2020 is going to be an interesting year.
 
QF742
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Re: Qantas Fleet Thread - 2020

Tue Jan 07, 2020 4:18 pm

RyanairGuru wrote:
qantas747 wrote:
RyanairGuru wrote:

There will be a number of changes over the next 12 months as the additional 3 frames are added, but I am increasingly thinking that the final distribution 12 months from now will look not-dissimilar to the "option one" I posted in the December Australian Aviation thread. It really does seem like the most sensible distribution of scarce resources, and once I realised how easily they could back-fill SYD-HND over other ports without even launching an additional SYD-NRT (which is still a possibility) I was all-but-convinced that HND would go 787.

I have reproduced that option below:



787s = 14

MEL-PER-LHR + MEL-SFO + MEL-LAX = 4
BNE-LAX-JFK = 2
BNE-SFO + BNE-ORD = 2
SYD-SFO + SYD-SCL = 3
SYD-HND = 2 (possibly with an AKL turn in between)

TOTAL: 13/14

A380s = 12

SYD-SIN-LHR + SYD-JNB = 4 (*)
SYD-LAX = 2
MEL-LAX = 2
SYD-DFW = 2

TOTAL: 10/12 (**)

(*) With a small adjustment to the schedule QF63/64 can be operated with one frame between QF2 -> QF1
(**) Allows for maintenance/refurb plus QF35/36 and/or QF127/128 to be seasonally up-gauged - QF35/36 year-round A380 once refurbishments are complete would mean 11/12


I agree, that SYD-HND will likely go 789 with KIX increased to balance capacity. I can also see JQ adding SYD-NRT as A321s arrive which will help balance out capacity.

I dont think that JNB will go A380 full time.. QF will work their new assets hard and SYD-JNB will go daily 789 with perhaps a seasonal upgrade to A380. JNB currently interchanges with HND well (JNB-SYD comes back 1535 then can operate overnight to HND) so would only use 3 aircraft daily, and the full day on the ground in HND will be a good break for the plane in the event of delays allowing the full use of the fleet.

789 daily does drop overall capacity to JNB, but hopefully PAPL/QF will sort their differences and add in a 3x PER-JNB to balance capacity.

Will be interesting to see what unfolds!


While a 787 to JNB would probably make more sense than an A380, where do you propose a free 787 comes from? Noting that 11 787s are required for the routes already announced, you are suggesting that they schedule 14/14 if both HND and JNB are operated by 787s.

Time will tell, but I am pretty sure JNB will be an A380 route, maybe 4/5 weekly off-season and daily in peak. Being able to (basically) serve it with just one frame makes it very likely IMHO. There is so little slack in the fleet that the most optimum fleet distribution takes a back seat to what is feasible.


Is there sufficient premium demand to justify an A380 to JNB, particularly in F? I know that QF are limited to the aircraft they have, but it does seem overkill to put the A380 to JNB. I won’t be shocked if it happens though.

I also wondered re JNB and the current situation between QF and PER - do you think QF would consider (if they had enough aircraft/more aircraft) daily SYD-JNB 789 and 3 weekly MEL-JNB 789?
 
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Re: Qantas Fleet Thread - 2020

Tue Jan 07, 2020 7:42 pm

NZ516 wrote:

That could work out for SYD to NRT after 28 March but Beijing is only 5 per week.


Sorry to be blunt, but that's a very short-sighted approach to assume it must be replaced 1:1. With the A330 fleet there are enough moving parts between domestic flights, AKL etc, that they can easily reallocate capacity to make any additional frequency daily. Not in March, but by yesrs end it seems pretty certain that SYD-HKG will become an A330, at least in low season.

Also, IMHO a hypothetical SYD-NRT would only be something like 3x weekly, at least in low season. Daily would dump another 1400 weekly seats into the market at the same time as NH and VA ramp up. Expect some good deals to Japan in 2020!

NZ516 wrote:
Regarding JQ SYD to YVR they need to free up some 787 capacity to do it, when does the first 321NEO arrive? If they get some mid year and deploy them on DPS could see it able to work. Maybe JQ could give one 787 to Qantas once it is surplus. So Qantas can keep services to Canada which might be a better match against AC.


Qantas can achieve this by scheduling 14/14 for December/January, just as they have traditionally scheduled the A380s 12/12 in peak season when QF127/128 is an A380.

I tried to come up with a way of using the one additional frame for 4 weekly TPAC flights by dovetailing into another route. I couldn't work out a pattern that made sense, so the only way to get four round-trips was with a daytime return (which is very unlikely IMHO). Noting that MEL-SFO/LAX is only 6 weekly they could also add another weekly flight there. All up they could add four, maybe five, additional flights to North America for peak season.

This is where it will be interesting to see what happens with the AA. If AA add additional capacity to the USA for the 2020/21 NW season then I think that SYD-YVR will continue 3x weekly (noting that the fourth weekly alluded to above is ex-MEL). If AA doesn't add any additional capacity then I would expect Qantas to deploy their capacity to LAX with YVR abandoned. 4x 789 is basically the same capacity as 2x A380, which is the current schedule for QF17/18.

In terms of QF receiving JQ 787s, I personally think that is very unlikely. Firstly, I really wouldn't read too much into statements made about shrinking Jetstar while the pilots are engaged in an industrial dispute. 2011 called, they want their talking points back. Secondly, they would need a reasonable number (perhaps a minimum of four) to justify the costs and inefficiency of adding an additional fleet type. Obviously pilots would be the same, but inducting the new fleet won't be as easy as walking across the apron and picking up the keys.

Even if it were to happen, they won't be flying for QF next summer. The interior of the aircraft would need to be gutted and completely refurbished from nose to tail. Obviously crew rest would need to be added, additional lavatories would need to be added, larger galleys would need to be installed, and of course the seats as well. The aircraft would be out of service for weeks. It would be hypothetically available for delivery to QF around November but it would actually be later as you can pretty much guarantee that the A321 will start on domestic runs for crew familiarisation. By that point we're looking at school holidays, so it makes sense to keep the additional capacity over at Jetstar until the end of January. Maybe April 2021 would be a target date for the QF 788s if it were to happen, which again I think is unlikely.
Worked Hard, Flew Right
 
qantas747
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Re: Qantas Fleet Thread - 2020

Tue Jan 07, 2020 9:43 pm

RyanairGuru wrote:
qantas747 wrote:
RyanairGuru wrote:

There will be a number of changes over the next 12 months as the additional 3 frames are added, but I am increasingly thinking that the final distribution 12 months from now will look not-dissimilar to the "option one" I posted in the December Australian Aviation thread. It really does seem like the most sensible distribution of scarce resources, and once I realised how easily they could back-fill SYD-HND over other ports without even launching an additional SYD-NRT (which is still a possibility) I was all-but-convinced that HND would go 787.

I have reproduced that option below:



787s = 14

MEL-PER-LHR + MEL-SFO + MEL-LAX = 4
BNE-LAX-JFK = 2
BNE-SFO + BNE-ORD = 2
SYD-SFO + SYD-SCL = 3
SYD-HND = 2 (possibly with an AKL turn in between)

TOTAL: 13/14

A380s = 12

SYD-SIN-LHR + SYD-JNB = 4 (*)
SYD-LAX = 2
MEL-LAX = 2
SYD-DFW = 2

TOTAL: 10/12 (**)

(*) With a small adjustment to the schedule QF63/64 can be operated with one frame between QF2 -> QF1
(**) Allows for maintenance/refurb plus QF35/36 and/or QF127/128 to be seasonally up-gauged - QF35/36 year-round A380 once refurbishments are complete would mean 11/12


I agree, that SYD-HND will likely go 789 with KIX increased to balance capacity. I can also see JQ adding SYD-NRT as A321s arrive which will help balance out capacity.

I dont think that JNB will go A380 full time.. QF will work their new assets hard and SYD-JNB will go daily 789 with perhaps a seasonal upgrade to A380. JNB currently interchanges with HND well (JNB-SYD comes back 1535 then can operate overnight to HND) so would only use 3 aircraft daily, and the full day on the ground in HND will be a good break for the plane in the event of delays allowing the full use of the fleet.

789 daily does drop overall capacity to JNB, but hopefully PAPL/QF will sort their differences and add in a 3x PER-JNB to balance capacity.

Will be interesting to see what unfolds!


While a 787 to JNB would probably make more sense than an A380, where do you propose a free 787 comes from? Noting that 11 787s are required for the routes already announced, you are suggesting that they schedule 14/14 if both HND and JNB are operated by 787s.

Time will tell, but I am pretty sure JNB will be an A380 route, maybe 4/5 weekly off-season and daily in peak. Being able to (basically) serve it with just one frame makes it very likely IMHO. There is so little slack in the fleet that the most optimum fleet distribution takes a back seat to what is feasible.


I see where you are coming from, but I don't think that a free 787 is required to operate to JNB.
This balances what is optimal and feasible with new assets.
As this won't be in place until end 2020, early 2021, the A380 will take over the role currently filled by 747's to come to the rescue or upgauge where required

Melbourne Base (4)
MEL-PER-LHR + MEL-SFO/LAX = 4
7hrs in London, tight 2-3hr turns in MEL before rotating to Nth America, but fleet interchange options in LAX/SFO as well as options to downgauge MEL-PER to help bring back on schedule. As SFO/LAX is not daily, there is a bit of a gap to rotate through.

Brisbane Base (4)
BNE-LAX-JFK = 2
1000-1640//1810-0610 tight turns, but as SFO/ORD arrive BNE 0600, if there is an issue or a delay there is a bit of slack to have a plane for the 10am to LAX
BNE-SFO + BNE-ORD = 2
Afternoon/Evening Departures from BNE, with 5hr turnarounds in USA and fleet interchange option in SFO

Sydney Base (6)
Some tighter turn times, but opportunities to interchange in SFO, and 4-5hrs in between most SYD rotations there is ample opportunity to recover
SYD-SCL-SYD
1230/1105-1330/1750+1

SYD-SFO-SYD
1955/1620- 2225/0605+2

SYD-JNB-SYD
1055/1700- 1910/1455+1

SYD-HND-SYD
2050/0515+1- 2200/0830+1

The only thing this does not address is the drop in capacity on JNB/TYO, this would need to be mitigated somehow, which is why I think QF wanted the 388's to HND, but if that does not happen I do agree that they will likely end up on some JNB flights, just not full time.

Additional capacity to come from a JQ 788 SYD-NRT, increase SYD-KIX and CTS frequencies over peak with A332 and hopefully add in a 3pw PER-JNB on a 332.
 
moa999
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Re: Qantas Fleet Thread - 2020

Tue Jan 07, 2020 10:52 pm

travelhound wrote:
OffTheRails wrote:
I still think Qantas will take on some ex Jetstar 787s once the A321s starts arriving.

As for Tokyo and the withdrawal of the 747 i'll throw my prediction in with the 787 replacing the 747 SYD to HND and an additional a330 SYD to NRT replacing the slot left from the MEL service moving to HND. I do think peoples ideas of a possible Jetstar service from Sydney to Tokyo is very plausible as well


Did some research on JQ recently as I have been unable to make sense of their fleet strategy in relationship to their original route fleet plans.

To establish a basis for the research I referenced academic material on LCC's owned by a full service carrier (Airline within a Airline - AWA).

One of the initial critism's of the AWA model revolved around one airline (typically the LCC) canabalising the other. As such AWA business strategies have revolved around each airline having very distinct markets with little overlap.

If we go back to 2014 CAPA were projecting JQ as the growth international airline for QANTAS. This was based on the current state of QF International business and its ability to compete with the other major airlines operating in and out of the country.

As we all know, with the restructure of QANTAS the QF international business has had a resurgence of late. This has resulted in not only in new aircraft, but new destinations and the prospect of "disrupter" Sunrise routes. My observations suggest QF and not JQ will be the growth vehicle for QANTAS's international operations going forward.

As such, the expansion of JQ's international route network may not be based upon the viability of a route, but the viability of a market within a QF/JQ business structure. In other words JQ flying routes similar to QF could ultimately result in lower yields for the QF group (classic micro/macro economics).

If we look at AirAsiaX, another longhaul LCC in Asia, it has had very mixed results with establishing a viable market, which has subsequently resulted in very poor financial results. Scoot, is said to also be a very poor financial performer.

If we compare successful and unsuccessful LCC's, there is a common theme revolving around their ability to establish themselves as a reputable provider of Regular Passenger Transport services and profitability.

For example AirAsia is often the airline of choice as it has the scale to offer a full range of destinations with regular services. Other LCC groups (TigerAir, Jetstar Asia) have struggled to create this scale.

.....and this is the dilemma for JQ international. For them to create the scale they would probably need make a considerable investment in the business.

With two very strong expanding LCC's operating in Asia, a Monte Carlo analysis could suggest a blood bath for an overly optimistic expansion of JQ's Asian international operations.

Sure a market could work over the shorter term, but over the longer term the prospects mat not be as good!

I would like to see JQ international base more of it's 787 fleet out of Perth. The aircraft could be used to establish regular airline services to Italy, Greece and Germany. I also suspect Auckland could eventually become a viable base for establishing regular airline services to the Americas, but this would be more of a long term plan (both scenarios would require reconfigured or new 787's).

Another consideration is QF's frequent flyer program. If we go back five years QF reinstated services to Coffs Harbour and the Sunshine Coast on the basis their frequent flyers did not want to fly with JQ. This in effect went against the classic AWA model where services did not overlap.

As such we could be seeing a different model/theory emerging where we have an Airline within an Airline within a Frequent Flyer Program. The rules of engagement could be fundamentally different, because ultimately the frequent flyer wants to use their points for leasure, not business destinations.

I suspect there are good reasons why QF are focusing in QF International and not JQ. As others have said 2020 is going to be an interesting year.


travelhound wrote:
To establish a basis for the research I referenced academic material on LCC's owned by a full service carrier (Airline within a Airline - AWA).

This has resulted in not only in new aircraft, but new destinations and the prospect of "disrupter" Sunrise routes. My observations suggest QF and not JQ will be the growth vehicle for QANTAS's international operations going forward.

As such, the expansion of JQ's international route network may not be based upon the viability of a route, but the viability of a market within a QF/JQ business structure. In other words JQ flying routes similar to QF could ultimately result in lower yields for the QF group (classic micro/macro economics).

I suspect there are good reasons why QF are focusing in QF International and not JQ. As others have said 2020 is going to be an interesting year.


Interested in any links to academic articles. I would have thought AWA, particularly long-haul, are pretty rare and very country specific making academic research difficult.

QF group is very maximise return driven. The initial development or seed less so, but then it needs to produce. Hence the lack of expansion in JQAsia (particularly when compared to Scoot/Tiger) and the lack of expansion and continual route changes in JQIntl.

On long-haul LCC fuel and cabin and tech crew becomes a greater component of the cost, which advantages AirAsia given the lower Malaysian bases.

And I think the FSCs can get a better premium in PE and J for the longer routes.
 
travelhound
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Re: Qantas Fleet Thread - 2020

Wed Jan 08, 2020 12:52 am

moa999 wrote:

Interested in any links to academic articles. I would have thought AWA, particularly long-haul, are pretty rare and very country specific making academic research difficult.

QF group is very maximise return driven. The initial development or seed less so, but then it needs to produce. Hence the lack of expansion in JQAsia (particularly when compared to Scoot/Tiger) and the lack of expansion and continual route changes in JQIntl.

On long-haul LCC fuel and cabin and tech crew becomes a greater component of the cost, which advantages AirAsia given the lower Malaysian bases.

And I think the FSCs can get a better premium in PE and J for the longer routes.


Look up Dr. Gui Lohmann on the internet. His research references other LCC research.
 
qf002
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Re: Qantas Fleet Thread - 2020

Wed Jan 08, 2020 3:07 am

I still think QF will send the A380 to SFO at some stage, makes far more sense to me than JNB.
 
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Re: Qantas Fleet Thread - 2020

Wed Jan 08, 2020 3:33 am

qf002 wrote:
I still think QF will send the A380 to SFO at some stage, makes far more sense to me than JNB.


With MEL-SFO, & soon BNE-SFO coming online the A380 on SYD-SFO would be over kill.

Both MEL & BNE will eventually becomes daily once the market absorbs the capacity & PS aircraft come online freeing up B789 frames.


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CraigAnderson
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Re: Qantas Fleet Thread - 2020

Wed Jan 08, 2020 5:18 am

qf002 wrote:
I still think QF will send the A380 to SFO at some stage, makes far more sense to me than JNB.


Why on earth would you think QF will fly an A380 SYD-SFO? The route has moved from a B747 to a B789 which means it has already dropped capacity, there is a competitor in UA also flying SYD-SFO, while QF now also has MEL-SFO with BNE-SFO starting soon. I really would like to hear your reasoning for a SYD-SFO A380!
 
NZ516
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Re: Qantas Fleet Thread - 2020

Wed Jan 08, 2020 4:55 pm

RyanairGuru wrote:
There will be a number of changes over the next 12 months as the additional 3 frames are added, but I am increasingly thinking that the final distribution 12 months from now will look not-dissimilar to the "option one" I posted in the December Australian Aviation thread. It really does seem like the most sensible distribution of scarce resources, and once I realised how easily they could back-fill SYD-HND over other ports without even launching an additional SYD-NRT (which is still a possibility) I was all-but-convinced that HND would go 787.

I have reproduced that option below:



787s = 14

MEL-PER-LHR + MEL-SFO + MEL-LAX = 4
BNE-LAX-JFK = 2
BNE-SFO + BNE-ORD = 2
SYD-SFO + SYD-SCL = 3
SYD-HND = 2 (possibly with an AKL turn in between)

TOTAL: 13/14

A380s = 12

SYD-SIN-LHR + SYD-JNB = 4 (*)
SYD-LAX = 2
MEL-LAX = 2
SYD-DFW = 2

TOTAL: 10/12 (**)

(*) With a small adjustment to the schedule QF63/64 can be operated with one frame between QF2 -> QF1
(**) Allows for maintenance/refurb plus QF35/36 and/or QF127/128 to be seasonally up-gauged - QF35/36 year-round A380 once refurbishments are complete would mean 11/12


As you posted earlier this seems very plausible and with YVR added in

787s = 14

MEL-PER-LHR + MEL-SFO + MEL-LAX = 4
BNE-LAX-JFK = 2
BNE-SFO + BNE-ORD = 2
SYD-SFO + SYD-SCL = 3
SYD-HND = 2 (possibly with an AKL turn in between)
SYD-YVR = 1 (3pw)

And no more 789 flights to HKG becoming all 330 flying from all ports. With this in mind all 747s could be retired by December.
 
NZ516
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Re: Qantas Fleet Thread - 2020

Wed Jan 08, 2020 5:11 pm

qantas747 wrote:
Sydney Base (6)
Some tighter turn times, but opportunities to interchange in SFO, and 4-5hrs in between most SYD rotations there is ample opportunity to recover
SYD-SCL-SYD
1230/1105-1330/1750+1

SYD-SFO-SYD
1955/1620- 2225/0605+2

SYD-JNB-SYD
1055/1700- 1910/1455+1

SYD-HND-SYD
2050/0515+1- 2200/0830+1


This is very handy to see the schedules and to work out possible outcomes. Also If one gets a delay they can swap around eg SFO-SYD-SCL instead of SFO-SYD-JNB. You can see the utilization will be very efficient with most flights involving an overnight..I wonder if Qantas could get better slots in HND with like a 0830 departure back to SYD would free up 0.5 of a frame.
 
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RyanairGuru
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Re: Qantas Fleet Thread - 2020

Wed Jan 08, 2020 7:58 pm

NZ516 wrote:
I wonder if Qantas could get better slots in HND with like a 0830 departure back to SYD would free up 0.5 of a frame.


You suggested the same last month, and the answer is still the same. They are restricted to nighttime slots, so 22:00-06:00.


Obviously we will see what eventuates, but IMHO there is no way that they will schedule all 14 aircraft for more than 2 months at a time (basically just Dec/Jan and July). Unless I've missed something, the schedule suggested by qantas747 has only one layover of 12+ hours (HND) out of all 14 frames. If they wanted to play that game then I assume that they could contract with JAL to conduct maintenance at Haneda, like how A330 maintenance is currently been done in HKG between QF117/118, but things are very tight from a maintenance perspective.
Worked Hard, Flew Right
 
NZ516
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Re: Qantas Fleet Thread - 2020

Thu Jan 09, 2020 11:38 am

I see that you mentioned in the Aus thread last month in your reply that if feasible they could do a 2200-2345 turnaround in HND. This will be more efficient than the current 747 schedule with it's 17 hours ground time. The 789s will be pretty well stretched as it is if all goes to plan.. Anyhow I will have to wait to see what unfolds and learn to be more patient.
 
Flyerqf
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Re: Qantas Fleet Thread - 2020

Mon Jan 27, 2020 2:38 am

The 12th QF 388 is now out of rotation with the end of the seasonal QF17/18 flights.

Maintenance should start again with 9 still to be refitted into the new config and 3 still to be repainted.

The 11th will be out of rotation from 13-Feb when QF127/128 seasonal upgauge to 388 reverts back to 744/789.
 
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EK413
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Re: Qantas Fleet Thread - 2020

Mon Jan 27, 2020 3:55 am

The sole B763F VHEFR will Ferry SYD-SIN Wednesday 29JAN for repaint.


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danair380
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Re: Qantas Fleet Thread - 2020

Mon Jan 27, 2020 8:07 am

EK413 wrote:
The sole B763F VHEFR will Ferry SYD-SIN Wednesday 29JAN for repaint.


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Now thats gonna be one good lookin 767
 
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EK413
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Re: Qantas Fleet Thread - 2020

Mon Jan 27, 2020 10:15 am

VHNXN currently enroute XSP-CNS as QF6251 via BME presumably in the revised QF Roo colours.


Flight from Broome
https://fr24.com/QJE6251/23a9eced

Image


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moa999
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Re: Qantas Fleet Thread - 2020

Fri Jan 31, 2020 3:50 am

Qantas has updated it's Inflight Internet/ WiFi page to say 96% of 737s and 80% of 332s.

96% is 72 of 75 737s - so 3 left - likely VYD, VYH and XZB by photos and history
80% 8 of 10 domestic 332s - EBA, EBK (EBK is currently under maintenance)


The timetable for the launch of the ViaSat3 sats (a trio of Ka band satellites) that QF has chosen for international also seems to have solidified
US Sat - late 2021, Euro and Asia Sat - by mid 2022. But probably adds some time for positioning and testing.

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