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gunnerman
Posts: 1147
Joined: Fri May 19, 2017 7:55 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Fri Mar 27, 2020 4:33 pm

caribny wrote:
So LI is virtually grounded. Only BGI and SVD are left. I cannot imagine them running flights to STT and SJU out of BGI.

If LI can fly its routes again within a month then all should be well, but its planes could be grounded for a lot longer. Of course BW is facing similar problems. All of this isn't just of academic interest to me as I use these two airlines to enable me to visit family and friends in the region, and I fear that both could go under as their shareholder governments are in worsening economic shape and in no fit state to provide the cash injections needed for survival.
 
LimaFoxTango
Posts: 978
Joined: Wed Jun 16, 2004 11:33 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Sat Mar 28, 2020 6:22 pm

LI operated a flight to HAV today from ANU. Presumably, this was to retrieve Cuban doctors. I believe they will be going to DOM.
You are said to be a good pilot when your take-off's equal your landings.
 
caribny
Posts: 474
Joined: Sat Mar 16, 2019 1:47 am

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Sun Mar 29, 2020 1:59 am

gunnerman wrote:
caribny wrote:
So LI is virtually grounded. Only BGI and SVD are left. I cannot imagine them running flights to STT and SJU out of BGI.

If LI can fly its routes again within a month then all should be well, but its planes could be grounded for a lot longer. Of course BW is facing similar problems. All of this isn't just of academic interest to me as I use these two airlines to enable me to visit family and friends in the region, and I fear that both could go under as their shareholder governments are in worsening economic shape and in no fit state to provide the cash injections needed for survival.



Both will survive, even if in smaller form. Maybe LI might end up being owned by Chinese investors because Gaston Browne already seems to have money from them. BW needs to drop 3 of its jets and exit the Jamaica North America markets. Also abandon the notion of a KIN hub. Just do KIN E/C as this s profitable.
 
2travel2know2
Posts: 2962
Joined: Mon Apr 26, 2010 3:01 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Sun Mar 29, 2020 5:22 pm

caribny wrote:
Both will survive, even if in smaller form. Maybe LI might end up being owned by Chinese investors because Gaston Browne already seems to have money from them. BW needs to drop 3 of its jets and exit the Jamaica North America markets. Also abandon the notion of a KIN hub. Just do KIN E/C as this s profitable.
IMHO, What probably would work for BW @ KIN might be something like daily mornings BGI/GEO-POS-KIN with tag on thrice weekly to GCM-BZE and 4 times per week NAS-HAV, plus 3-4 evenings POS-KIN w/early morning KIN-POS-BGI/GEO.
I'm not on CM's payroll.
 
caribny
Posts: 474
Joined: Sat Mar 16, 2019 1:47 am

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Sun Mar 29, 2020 7:50 pm

2travel2know2 wrote:
caribny wrote:
Both will survive, even if in smaller form. Maybe LI might end up being owned by Chinese investors because Gaston Browne already seems to have money from them. BW needs to drop 3 of its jets and exit the Jamaica North America markets. Also abandon the notion of a KIN hub. Just do KIN E/C as this s profitable.
IMHO, What probably would work for BW @ KIN might be something like daily mornings BGI/GEO-POS-KIN with tag on thrice weekly to GCM-BZE and 4 times per week NAS-HAV, plus 3-4 evenings POS-KIN w/early morning KIN-POS-BGI/GEO.


They will want flights that will turn around quickly to allow decent arrival times in POS, with continuing service to BGI and connections to GEO. I dont even know how well their KIN GCM service was doing. I will suggest that BZE is off the cards as loads are light, even to Jamaica. It will make more sense for Inter Caribbean, with their 50 seat jets, to set up a KIN base for flights to these locations. SXM and ANU also are important on this route due to Jamaican VFR travel.

BW will most likely get some help from the Gov't of T&T but they will have to show a sustainable model. This might be the catalyst for T&T to tell Jamaica that the USA Jamaica routes are canceled, and with that their 15% ownership in BW. We will have to consider the significant economic impacts of Covid 19 and the fact that Caribbean people will have less disposable income and there will be greater use of video conferencing, reducing the need for business travel.
 
maverick4002
Posts: 291
Joined: Sun Jul 12, 2015 2:14 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Sun Mar 29, 2020 8:29 pm

caribny wrote:
2travel2know2 wrote:
caribny wrote:
Both will survive, even if in smaller form. Maybe LI might end up being owned by Chinese investors because Gaston Browne already seems to have money from them. BW needs to drop 3 of its jets and exit the Jamaica North America markets. Also abandon the notion of a KIN hub. Just do KIN E/C as this s profitable.
IMHO, What probably would work for BW @ KIN might be something like daily mornings BGI/GEO-POS-KIN with tag on thrice weekly to GCM-BZE and 4 times per week NAS-HAV, plus 3-4 evenings POS-KIN w/early morning KIN-POS-BGI/GEO.


They will want flights that will turn around quickly to allow decent arrival times in POS, with continuing service to BGI and connections to GEO. I dont even know how well their KIN GCM service was doing. I will suggest that BZE is off the cards as loads are light, even to Jamaica. It will make more sense for Inter Caribbean, with their 50 seat jets, to set up a KIN base for flights to these locations. SXM and ANU also are important on this route due to Jamaican VFR travel.

BW will most likely get some help from the Gov't of T&T but they will have to show a sustainable model. This might be the catalyst for T&T to tell Jamaica that the USA Jamaica routes are canceled, and with that their 15% ownership in BW. We will have to consider the significant economic impacts of Covid 19 and the fact that Caribbean people will have less disposable income and there will be greater use of video conferencing, reducing the need for business travel.


The TT govt will not let BW fail, end of story. The Jamaican routes, sure, they can go away if need be. Before all this didnt BW make a profit last year and was on course to do same again this year? If so, I would say the model and the people in charge are doing ok. I hope they will adjust as necessary to the changing times.
 
Brickell305
Posts: 1055
Joined: Sat Jun 24, 2017 2:07 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Sun Mar 29, 2020 8:48 pm

maverick4002 wrote:
caribny wrote:
2travel2know2 wrote:
IMHO, What probably would work for BW @ KIN might be something like daily mornings BGI/GEO-POS-KIN with tag on thrice weekly to GCM-BZE and 4 times per week NAS-HAV, plus 3-4 evenings POS-KIN w/early morning KIN-POS-BGI/GEO.


They will want flights that will turn around quickly to allow decent arrival times in POS, with continuing service to BGI and connections to GEO. I dont even know how well their KIN GCM service was doing. I will suggest that BZE is off the cards as loads are light, even to Jamaica. It will make more sense for Inter Caribbean, with their 50 seat jets, to set up a KIN base for flights to these locations. SXM and ANU also are important on this route due to Jamaican VFR travel.

BW will most likely get some help from the Gov't of T&T but they will have to show a sustainable model. This might be the catalyst for T&T to tell Jamaica that the USA Jamaica routes are canceled, and with that their 15% ownership in BW. We will have to consider the significant economic impacts of Covid 19 and the fact that Caribbean people will have less disposable income and there will be greater use of video conferencing, reducing the need for business travel.


The TT govt will not let BW fail, end of story. The Jamaican routes, sure, they can go away if need be. Before all this didnt BW make a profit last year and was on course to do same again this year? If so, I would say the model and the people in charge are doing ok. I hope they will adjust as necessary to the changing times.

They will bail them out as best they can. The problem is the model that was working prior to this crisis is unlikely to work now. Not only does BW/T&T have to deal with the fallout of the pandemic and the economic crunch that will come from that but it also has the issue of depressed energy prices. T&T’s debt rating was downgraded just last week due to lower energy prices. Demand isn’t going to rebound overnight and I suspect that even non-Jamaican routes will see cuts due to the reduced demand. Inbound traffic to T&T is likely to take a major hit as well due to the lingering economic effects of the pandemic. How many people are going to put off a Christmas trip this year or playing mas next year because they missed a month or more of salary or because they find it more prudent to save money in an uncertain economy?
 
Caymanair
Posts: 499
Joined: Mon Apr 05, 2004 4:53 am

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Mon Mar 30, 2020 4:11 am

I would think that both Trinidad and Jamaica would be keen to fund BW and support as much of their services as possible. They will need to spend to get the economy moving again and to fill in the gaps left by foreign carriers. That is among the strongest justifications for a state-owned carrier in the first place... as an insurance policy and a tool for economic growth. 2020 and 2021 will be high-spending years, they have to be.


The Cayman government, the Governor, and the FCO seem to be looking at BA operating an air bridge flight in the coming days to include passengers urgently needing to travel to London.
 
gunnerman
Posts: 1147
Joined: Fri May 19, 2017 7:55 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Mon Mar 30, 2020 12:27 pm

This crisis will bring about badly needed route cutbacks. How many inter-island routes have been operating despite being money losers and I can see the shareholder governments of BW and LI being forced to support their slimmed down airlines only for routes which are essential, and if anyone wants other routes they will have to provide the subsidies. The problem, though, is that these same governments are shooting themselves in the foot by locking down their countries and causing economic damage to existing fragile economies. These airlines may even have to merge - gasp! shock! horror!
 
gunnerman
Posts: 1147
Joined: Fri May 19, 2017 7:55 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Mon Mar 30, 2020 5:05 pm

The Barbados House of Assembly has voted to transfer BB$3m (US$1.48) from the Consolidated Fund to LIAT in order to keep the airline flying. The country is currently in a 2-week lockdown from 28 March with all non-essential businesses closed and a curfew imposed from 8pm to 6am.
 
caribny
Posts: 474
Joined: Sat Mar 16, 2019 1:47 am

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Tue Mar 31, 2020 2:25 am

maverick4002 wrote:


The TT govt will not let BW fail, end of story. The Jamaican routes, sure, they can go away if need be. Before all this didnt BW make a profit last year and was on course to do same again this year? If so, I would say the model and the people in charge are doing ok. I hope they will adjust as necessary to the changing times.[/quote]


Yes BW was profitable which is why TT will support. But they cannot afford massive losses given that nation's current problems.
 
caribny
Posts: 474
Joined: Sat Mar 16, 2019 1:47 am

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Tue Mar 31, 2020 2:36 am

Caymanair wrote:
I would think that both Trinidad and Jamaica would be keen to fund BW and support as much of their services as possible. They will need to spend to get the economy moving again and to fill in the gaps left by foreign carriers. That is among the strongest justifications for a state-owned carrier in the first place... as an insurance policy and a tool for economic growth. 2020 and 2021 will be high-spending years, they have to be.


The Cayman government, the Governor, and the FCO seem to be looking at BA operating an air bridge flight in the coming days to include passengers urgently needing to travel to London.



TT will support BW. Jamaica will not as BW is of absolutely no use to them given their minuscule market share. Jamaica will recover as it is a major tourist destination so they will get service, even if below normal levels. Certainly on the FLL, JFK, YYZ routes that BW flies.
 
caribbean484
Posts: 903
Joined: Sat Jan 06, 2007 1:57 am

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Tue Mar 31, 2020 3:01 am

gunnerman wrote:
This crisis will bring about badly needed route cutbacks. How many inter-island routes have been operating despite being money losers and I can see the shareholder governments of BW and LI being forced to support their slimmed down airlines only for routes which are essential, and if anyone wants other routes they will have to provide the subsidies. The problem, though, is that these same governments are shooting themselves in the foot by locking down their countries and causing economic damage to existing fragile economies. These airlines may even have to merge - gasp! shock! horror!


We are going to see a lot of cuts coming from the airlines during the next few weeks as demand is not there right now and will likely take 18 months to return to some sort of normalcy. It is said AA is looking at more JFK cuts, DL and UA are already signaling they will be smaller going forward and B6 maybe chopping more flights soon as NYC is "ground zero" on this virus.

The interesting issue is that the Caribbean region has seen very slowed economic growth over the past decade and you are right, the closing of the boarders is making an already tedious problem worse for them.
I'm surprised that Guyana has only 8 cases so far, compared to POS at 82, BGI at 33, and AUA at 50.

maverick4002 wrote:
The TT govt will not let BW fail, end of story. The Jamaican routes, sure, they can go away if need be. Before all this didnt BW make a profit last year and was on course to do same again this year? If so, I would say the model and the people in charge are doing ok. I hope they will adjust as necessary to the changing times.


Part of the new logo unveiling was to announce the second year profit, and before this Virus they were already ahead of projection at the end of Feb, but things have now changed. The PM did say they will do all they can to support the airline and management from what I have been told is already taking drastic actions.
All ah we is one family
 
rojo
Posts: 2311
Joined: Tue Sep 05, 2000 6:08 am

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Tue Mar 31, 2020 3:32 am

gunnerman wrote:
The Barbados House of Assembly has voted to transfer BB$3m (US$1.48) from the Consolidated Fund to LIAT in order to keep the airline flying. The country is currently in a 2-week lockdown from 28 March with all non-essential businesses closed and a curfew imposed from 8pm to 6am.


$1.48 million is probably the monthly lease bill of their 10 ATR's. They still need to pay salaries with no revenue from operations. They probably have 700 employees which is another $1.5 to $2.0 million. They will need more than that to stay afloat. The biggest challenge in the Caribbean are the insane amount of taxes charged to fly into or out of most of the islands. If they want airlines in the Caribbean to be profitable, governments in the Caricom need to figure out how to stop taxing airline tickets and find a way to subsidize the airport infrastructure to reduce the insane cost of operating from them.
 
caribny
Posts: 474
Joined: Sat Mar 16, 2019 1:47 am

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Tue Mar 31, 2020 3:42 am

gunnerman wrote:
This crisis will bring about badly needed route cutbacks. How many inter-island routes have been operating despite being money losers and I can see the shareholder governments of BW and LI being forced to support their slimmed down airlines only for routes which are essential, and if anyone wants other routes they will have to provide the subsidies. The problem, though, is that these same governments are shooting themselves in the foot by locking down their countries and causing economic damage to existing fragile economies. These airlines may even have to merge - gasp! shock! horror!



These countries would be crazy not to lock down their countries. Virtually all of the Covid 19 cases are important. If European and US hospitals are struggling to deal with their situation how can these tiny nations. In any case no one is flying in, so that all keeping the airports open will accomplish is to allow in Covid 19 infections. No tourists and no business people. Just nationals returning from trips that they were warned not to take. As it is the DR and the French Antilles are already in mini pandemic stage. The French Antilles having a highly developed medical system, so able to cope.

BW and LI aren't going to merge as they have very different missions. BW is a very POS focused carrier so cannot meet the needs that LIAT services. The most that might happen is to rationalize and code share on routes like POS GND. TT is going to stay faraway from LI's problems.

The big reason why LI has mediocre loads is because of the high intra regional travel taxes, but the governments claim that they need the revenues so they dont plan any reductions. LI has removed virtually all of its non performing routes.
 
maverick4002
Posts: 291
Joined: Sun Jul 12, 2015 2:14 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Tue Mar 31, 2020 3:43 am

caribny wrote:
maverick4002 wrote:


The TT govt will not let BW fail, end of story. The Jamaican routes, sure, they can go away if need be. Before all this didnt BW make a profit last year and was on course to do same again this year? If so, I would say the model and the people in charge are doing ok. I hope they will adjust as necessary to the changing times.



Yes BW was profitable which is why TT will support. But they cannot afford massive losses given that nation's current problems.[/quote]

Wtve problems TT has, they will not let BW fail. Losses or not
 
caribny
Posts: 474
Joined: Sat Mar 16, 2019 1:47 am

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Tue Mar 31, 2020 3:53 am

caribbean484 wrote:
[.

The interesting issue is that the Caribbean region has seen very slowed economic growth over the past decade and you are right, the closing of the boarders is making an already tedious problem worse for them.
I'm surprised that Guyana has only 8 cases so far, compared to POS at 82, BGI at 33, and AUA at 50.
actions.



Guyana and Suriname are low because they closed their borders early, even to citizens who didn't return home in time.

When tourists do return countries which still haven't licked their Covid 19 problem will not be on the list, so those places which closed late and now have more infections might have an issue. You bet "does this island still have Covid 19?" will be a Google search when people finally begin to select their vacation spots.

For the past 2 weeks few tourists have been travelling to the region, but many citizens did from overseas trips, a few bringing a "present". TT exemplifies that as almost 50% of their cases came from some stubborn people who insisted on a cruise when the TT gov't had warned against nonessential travel. They were stranded in Guadeloupe an island in an epidemic stage with over 100 cases, most by now being local transmissions.

Keeping open brings in no benefits. Certain risks if pandemic hits some small island and we see scenes on CNN when the local hospitals aren't unable to cope. If the USA is struggling to get ventilators and other supplies you think that some little Caribbean nation would be able to source this?
 
caribny
Posts: 474
Joined: Sat Mar 16, 2019 1:47 am

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Tue Mar 31, 2020 3:55 am

LIAT is already in talks with their unions to put many employees on furlough. The choice is LIAT stays open with fewer employees, or completely collapses.
 
gunnerman
Posts: 1147
Joined: Fri May 19, 2017 7:55 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Tue Mar 31, 2020 8:14 pm

BA has terminated all LGW operations and VS is only operating three non-Caribbean routes from LHR, so here is a list of Caribbean destinations these two airlines used to operate from LGW. The fragile economies of these countries will suffer.

BA and VS
ANU
TAB
UVF
GND
BGI

BA only
POS (via UVF)
SKB (via ANU)
PLS (via ANU)
PUJ
KIN
CUN

VS only
MBJ
HAV
 
caribny
Posts: 474
Joined: Sat Mar 16, 2019 1:47 am

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Wed Apr 01, 2020 2:22 am

gunnerman wrote:
BA has terminated all LGW operations and VS is only operating three non-Caribbean routes from LHR, so here is a list of Caribbean destinations these two airlines used to operate from LGW. The fragile economies of these countries will suffer.

BA and VS
ANU
TAB
UVF
GND
BGI

BA only
POS (via UVF)
SKB (via ANU)
PLS (via ANU)
PUJ
KIN
CUN

VS only
MBJ
HAV



They would crumble even faster if their image of being tropical paradises was replaced with being out of control Covid 19 hell holes. Please see what is happening in NYC to see the bullet that these islands dodged by shutting down their borders.
 
gunnerman
Posts: 1147
Joined: Fri May 19, 2017 7:55 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Wed Apr 01, 2020 1:46 pm

It seems so easy, doesn't it, do a lockdown to save lives. The problem is that if your strategy is right it hardly makes sense to remove the lockdown after a few weeks as the virus is still around, so you have to extend the lockdown. And extend it again and again.

Fast forward to 2021 when the crisis has passed and you look forward to flights arriving again. But what you've done is transform an attractive tropical paradise into a mess with hotels still closed and people ransacking shops for food and goods. Good luck in getting any airline to fly into a ruined economy, and you won't have the money to pay them to do so.
 
Brickell305
Posts: 1055
Joined: Sat Jun 24, 2017 2:07 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Wed Apr 01, 2020 2:52 pm

gunnerman wrote:
It seems so easy, doesn't it, do a lockdown to save lives. The problem is that if your strategy is right it hardly makes sense to remove the lockdown after a few weeks as the virus is still around, so you have to extend the lockdown. And extend it again and again.

Fast forward to 2021 when the crisis has passed and you look forward to flights arriving again. But what you've done is transform an attractive tropical paradise into a mess with hotels still closed and people ransacking shops for food and goods. Good luck in getting any airline to fly into a ruined economy, and you won't have the money to pay them to do so.

I get what you're trying to say but IMO people wouldn't have been visiting the islands in sufficient numbers to keep the hotels open anyway. In Antigua, for example, they implemented their "shutdown" after most of the major international airlines had already decided to cancel their flights anyway. The handful of people that would have continued to visit the islands weren't going to keep the economy afloat either way. The lack of demand is likely to last long term as well as a) disposable income in source markets has plummeted and b) tourists now are likely reluctant to take the risk of traveling (especially internationally) for the foreseeable future. Even 7-8 months from now, in a situation where borders are open, you'll have a situation where islands are only getting a handful of tourists. It will be nowhere enough to keep economies afloat and still be risking a health crisis on top of it. It will be the worst of all worlds. Better to have a fully knee-capped economy with little to no health crisis than to have a slightly better but nowhere near good enough economy with a significant health crisis.
 
ryby92
Posts: 39
Joined: Sun Dec 08, 2019 7:34 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Wed Apr 01, 2020 5:03 pm

Brickell305 wrote:
gunnerman wrote:
It seems so easy, doesn't it, do a lockdown to save lives. The problem is that if your strategy is right it hardly makes sense to remove the lockdown after a few weeks as the virus is still around, so you have to extend the lockdown. And extend it again and again.

Fast forward to 2021 when the crisis has passed and you look forward to flights arriving again. But what you've done is transform an attractive tropical paradise into a mess with hotels still closed and people ransacking shops for food and goods. Good luck in getting any airline to fly into a ruined economy, and you won't have the money to pay them to do so.

I get what you're trying to say but IMO people wouldn't have been visiting the islands in sufficient numbers to keep the hotels open anyway. In Antigua, for example, they implemented their "shutdown" after most of the major international airlines had already decided to cancel their flights anyway. The handful of people that would have continued to visit the islands weren't going to keep the economy afloat either way. The lack of demand is likely to last long term as well as a) disposable income in source markets has plummeted and b) tourists now are likely reluctant to take the risk of traveling (especially internationally) for the foreseeable future. Even 7-8 months from now, in a situation where borders are open, you'll have a situation where islands are only getting a handful of tourists. It will be nowhere enough to keep economies afloat and still be risking a health crisis on top of it. It will be the worst of all worlds. Better to have a fully knee-capped economy with little to no health crisis than to have a slightly better but nowhere near good enough economy with a significant health crisis.


The industry will rebound and it may take less time than many pessimists think, Probably a year or so after the pandemic passes. No one likes to be cooped up on lock down and once this episode passes people will get on with their lives. There was rebound after 9/11, rebound after 2008 recession and there will be a rebound post COVID 19. Have faith.
 
gunnerman
Posts: 1147
Joined: Fri May 19, 2017 7:55 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Wed Apr 01, 2020 5:11 pm

When virtually the whole of the Eastern Caribbean decided to lock down they won't have know about BA's plans concerning their destinations and Gatwick airport which even BA employees didn't know about until they received an email late last Monday. If there had been a chance of maintaining airlift it disappeared in the face of widespread lockdowns. Looking forward, we just have to wait and see how long these lockdowns last. The only proper way to halt a lockdown is by gathering data from widespread testing in order to decide when and how to back off the lockdown - but Caribbean countries cannot do this sort of testing. So, lockdowns will be removed and reinstated using some combination of economic failure, political issues and gut feel, so who knows when (or indeed if) any particular destination will get airlift again from Europe and north America.
 
embraer175e2
Posts: 291
Joined: Sat Mar 18, 2017 12:47 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Wed Apr 01, 2020 5:52 pm

How has Winair been doing with the Air Antilles ATR wet lease, before the the covid-19 issue? Anybody ?
 
embraer175e2
Posts: 291
Joined: Sat Mar 18, 2017 12:47 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Wed Apr 01, 2020 6:02 pm

Caribbean Airlines was complaining about the ATR 600 dispatchability a few years ago with plans to start looking at a replacement. What made them change opinion in 2020 and decide to look for an increase in their ATR fleet?
 
caribny
Posts: 474
Joined: Sat Mar 16, 2019 1:47 am

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Thu Apr 02, 2020 1:58 am

gunnerman wrote:
When virtually the whole of the Eastern Caribbean decided to lock down they won't have know about BA's plans concerning their destinations and Gatwick airport which even BA employees didn't know about until they received an email late last Monday. If there had been a chance of maintaining airlift it disappeared in the face of widespread lockdowns. Looking forward, we just have to wait and see how long these lockdowns last. The only proper way to halt a lockdown is by gathering data from widespread testing in order to decide when and how to back off the lockdown - but Caribbean countries cannot do this sort of testing. So, lockdowns will be removed and reinstated using some combination of economic failure, political issues and gut feel, so who knows when (or indeed if) any particular destination will get airlift again from Europe and north America.



If NYC residents dont even want to travel to midtown why will they travel to BGI? One cannot fly planes with only 10% seats filled, or hotel rooms with only 5% occupancy. The notion that these islands created a self inflicted wound by closing borders is strange. Tourist arrivals had already plummeted by the time the borders were closed. Caribbean people, seeing the state of Europe and the USA, and knowing that Covid 19 had already entered their borders, were demanding that their borders be closed.

ANU had reported that most of the planes were arriving empty and were there to repatriate their citizens back home. Hotels in SLU had already begun to close before they closed their borders. Realizing that the health risks weren't worth it because their economies were already crumbling EVERY Caribbean island and the Guyanas went on lock down. Even the French Antilles cut themselves off from France!

Recovery will depend on what happens in the source markets, and what choices people living in these nations pick. Maybe Americans might decide to travel to FL when the crisis passes, avoiding international travel. Or maybe if FL falls into a state of pandemic, and Jamaica doesnt, then New Yorkers seeking release by traveling to the latter, as the images of FL might be less favorable.

Yes Caribbean economies might crumble as we enter a global recession or even a depression, but there is nothing that the Caribbean could have done to avoid that. Look at other parts of a.net and you will see Americans debating about whether it is safer to drive than to fly. So they aren't about to jump on a plane for a 3-4 hour flight until they begin to feel safe again.

I live in NYC, one of the largest source markets for most Caribbean islands. Better believe that the last thing that people are thinking about is a Caribbean vacation. For the last 2 weeks they have been hiding in their homes, or in places like the Hamptons, a car drive away, I actually know people who canceled FL vacations that they had planned for the Easter school holiday period. They did so 2 weeks ago.

This might well be the time for CARICOM nations to leverage the market that 7 million people provide by diversifying their economies to reduce their total vulnerability to economic shocks emanating from the USA/Europe.
 
LimaFoxTango
Posts: 978
Joined: Wed Jun 16, 2004 11:33 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Thu Apr 02, 2020 2:05 am

embraer175e2 wrote:
Caribbean Airlines was complaining about the ATR 600 dispatchability a few years ago with plans to start looking at a replacement. What made them change opinion in 2020 and decide to look for an increase in their ATR fleet?


Because common sense prevailed and they realised the ATR was the perfect aircraft for their primary mission of POS-TAB-POS. Now that they've begun to spread their wings afar, the ATR is still the best aircraft for them. As one of the earlier customers, BW had their fair share of teething problems with the -600 which are all but gone.
You are said to be a good pilot when your take-off's equal your landings.
 
Caymanair
Posts: 499
Joined: Mon Apr 05, 2004 4:53 am

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Thu Apr 02, 2020 3:49 am

The air bridge between London and the territories will see BA operate LHR-BDA-GCM on Monday/Tuesdays, with KX providing any onward lift necessary for cargo or essential personnel. Only passengers will be those stranded on island and needing to return to the UK or points onward, or status holders wanting to return to the island (who will be required to do 14 days quarantine in a government monitored facility).
 
gunnerman
Posts: 1147
Joined: Fri May 19, 2017 7:55 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Thu Apr 02, 2020 12:59 pm

BA has not scheduled any regular flights to BDA until 1 May operating daily from LGW using the 236-seat 4-cabin 772.

BA is scheduled to resume LHR-NAS-GCM on 1 May operating every day except Thursdays and Sundays using the 235 seat 2-cabin 772. BA is also scheduled to resume its eastern Caribbean flights from 1 May from LGW, but in view of the worsening coronavirus crisis and restricted operations at LGW it's hard to be confident of the resumptions from 1 May.
 
embraer175e2
Posts: 291
Joined: Sat Mar 18, 2017 12:47 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Thu Apr 02, 2020 3:42 pm

LimaFoxTango wrote:
embraer175e2 wrote:
Caribbean Airlines was complaining about the ATR 600 dispatchability a few years ago with plans to start looking at a replacement. What made them change opinion in 2020 and decide to look for an increase in their ATR fleet?


Because common sense prevailed and they realised the ATR was the perfect aircraft for their primary mission of POS-TAB-POS. Now that they've begun to spread their wings afar, the ATR is still the best aircraft for them. As one of the earlier customers, BW had their fair share of teething problems with the -600 which are all but gone.


Which routes do they fly with the ATR? And what routes will they add to this network?
 
Caymanair
Posts: 499
Joined: Mon Apr 05, 2004 4:53 am

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Thu Apr 02, 2020 5:49 pm

gunnerman wrote:
BA has not scheduled any regular flights to BDA until 1 May operating daily from LGW using the 236-seat 4-cabin 772.

BA is scheduled to resume LHR-NAS-GCM on 1 May operating every day except Thursdays and Sundays using the 235 seat 2-cabin 772. BA is also scheduled to resume its eastern Caribbean flights from 1 May from LGW, but in view of the worsening coronavirus crisis and restricted operations at LGW it's hard to be confident of the resumptions from 1 May.


These are not regular flights. This is the air bridge for the crisis period. Flights can be booked using the government hotline and are 500 GBP. It departs HEathrow starting Monday.
 
LimaFoxTango
Posts: 978
Joined: Wed Jun 16, 2004 11:33 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Thu Apr 02, 2020 6:33 pm

embraer175e2 wrote:
LimaFoxTango wrote:
embraer175e2 wrote:
Caribbean Airlines was complaining about the ATR 600 dispatchability a few years ago with plans to start looking at a replacement. What made them change opinion in 2020 and decide to look for an increase in their ATR fleet?


Because common sense prevailed and they realised the ATR was the perfect aircraft for their primary mission of POS-TAB-POS. Now that they've begun to spread their wings afar, the ATR is still the best aircraft for them. As one of the earlier customers, BW had their fair share of teething problems with the -600 which are all but gone.


Which routes do they fly with the ATR? And what routes will they add to this network?


With the ATR, they fly POS-CCS, POS-GND, POS-SVD, POS-SLU and POS-BGI. There's talk of them expanding to DOM, SKB, EIS and OGL.
You are said to be a good pilot when your take-off's equal your landings.
 
caribbean484
Posts: 903
Joined: Sat Jan 06, 2007 1:57 am

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Thu Apr 02, 2020 8:59 pm

Image

Some news outside the Coronavirus, Surname Airways has unveiled a new livery also on their "new" B777, The ex-Singapore 777 which is just a bit over 17 years old was registered as PZ-TCU.
All ah we is one family
 
Brickell305
Posts: 1055
Joined: Sat Jun 24, 2017 2:07 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Fri Apr 03, 2020 12:48 am

LIAT has suspended all passenger services effective today for the next fourteen days (for now).
 
gunnerman
Posts: 1147
Joined: Fri May 19, 2017 7:55 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Fri Apr 03, 2020 1:41 pm

Both of Guyana's international airports were mostly closed for a 2-week period from 19 March to 1 April with only local flights, cargo flights, MedEvac flights, technical refuelling stops and special authorised flights being permitted. I saw no point in a short closure to keep out international passengers with no exit strategy and predicted an extension, and it's happened as the Guyana CAA has extended the closure to 1 May.
 
gunnerman
Posts: 1147
Joined: Fri May 19, 2017 7:55 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Fri Apr 03, 2020 1:52 pm

Am I correct in believing that BW is operating only a single early moning return flight from POS to TAB? If so it's virtually shut down.
 
maverick4002
Posts: 291
Joined: Sun Jul 12, 2015 2:14 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Fri Apr 03, 2020 3:47 pm

caribbean484 wrote:
Image

Some news outside the Coronavirus, Surname Airways has unveiled a new livery also on their "new" B777, The ex-Singapore 777 which is just a bit over 17 years old was registered as PZ-TCU.


Some green along the fuselage would make this a bit better
 
LimaFoxTango
Posts: 978
Joined: Wed Jun 16, 2004 11:33 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Fri Apr 03, 2020 4:03 pm

gunnerman wrote:
Am I correct in believing that BW is operating only a single early moning return flight from POS to TAB? If so it's virtually shut down.


Looking at the arrivals/departure board for TAB on FR24, that seems to be the case.
You are said to be a good pilot when your take-off's equal your landings.
 
embraer175e2
Posts: 291
Joined: Sat Mar 18, 2017 12:47 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Fri Apr 03, 2020 4:09 pm

caribbean484 wrote:
Image

Some news outside the Coronavirus, Surname Airways has unveiled a new livery also on their "new" B777, The ex-Singapore 777 which is just a bit over 17 years old was registered as PZ-TCU.


Is it a wetlease?
 
embraer175e2
Posts: 291
Joined: Sat Mar 18, 2017 12:47 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Fri Apr 03, 2020 4:10 pm

Inter Caribbeans E145, on which route(s) does it serve?
 
embraer175e2
Posts: 291
Joined: Sat Mar 18, 2017 12:47 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Fri Apr 03, 2020 4:16 pm

Inter Caribbeans E145, on which route(s) does it serve?
 
baje427
Posts: 814
Joined: Mon Aug 01, 2011 12:42 am

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Fri Apr 03, 2020 4:47 pm

Brickell305 wrote:
LIAT has suspended all passenger services effective today for the next fourteen days (for now).

That was expected given BGI will have a 24 hour curfew from this evening.
 
embraer175e2
Posts: 291
Joined: Sat Mar 18, 2017 12:47 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Fri Apr 03, 2020 5:10 pm

A388 wrote:
Interesting developments at Caribbean Airlines with those 4 ATR72 additions. First of all, I hope they will get a complete livery and not just airline titles and no tail logo. I am hoping to see them get the new livery but I understand will be introduced later this year.

Time will tell if I'm gonna see their ATR's in CUR too.

A388


Brings them to a total of how much ATR's?
 
Brickell305
Posts: 1055
Joined: Sat Jun 24, 2017 2:07 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Fri Apr 03, 2020 8:05 pm

LimaFoxTango wrote:
embraer175e2 wrote:
LimaFoxTango wrote:

Because common sense prevailed and they realised the ATR was the perfect aircraft for their primary mission of POS-TAB-POS. Now that they've begun to spread their wings afar, the ATR is still the best aircraft for them. As one of the earlier customers, BW had their fair share of teething problems with the -600 which are all but gone.


Which routes do they fly with the ATR? And what routes will they add to this network?


With the ATR, they fly POS-CCS, POS-GND, POS-SVD, POS-SLU and POS-BGI. There's talk of them expanding to DOM, SKB, EIS and OGL.

OGL makes sense but the other destinations are so thin from POS, what’s the point? You could probably meet the daily demand to/from all those places with a single milk run.
 
caribny
Posts: 474
Joined: Sat Mar 16, 2019 1:47 am

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Fri Apr 03, 2020 8:10 pm

gunnerman wrote:
Both of Guyana's international airports were mostly closed for a 2-week period from 19 March to 1 April with only local flights, cargo flights, MedEvac flights, technical refuelling stops and special authorised flights being permitted. I saw no point in a short closure to keep out international passengers with no exit strategy and predicted an extension, and it's happened as the Guyana CAA has extended the closure to 1 May.



Dont know why you think that small countries, with no global clout, can have an exit strategy.

Here is the exit strategy. New York state declaring that the Covid 19 pandemic is over so that these countries can be assured that a disease isnt going to arrive from that source to sicken their impoverished nations. Please look at what is happening in NYC and ask yourself how Guyana would cope if a pandemic reached their shores.

Jamaica listed the flights which brought Covid 19 to the island. One BA flight from LGW and a bunch of B6 flights from JFK. BW brought in some Corvid into GEO from JFK. B6 brought it from JFK to BGI.

When B6 and BW stop bringing viruses from NYC then these nations can exit their border closings. And if TT didn't close their borders its likely that BW crews would have insisted upon it, given that at least 13 had to be quarantined.

GEO will be closed until the end of May. If NYC hasn't solved its problems it will continue to be closed except for cargo and special flights.
 
caribny
Posts: 474
Joined: Sat Mar 16, 2019 1:47 am

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Fri Apr 03, 2020 8:13 pm

embraer175e2 wrote:
Inter Caribbeans E145, on which route(s) does it serve?



HAV/PLS from KIN and SDQ. Also SDQ SXM,
 
gunnerman
Posts: 1147
Joined: Fri May 19, 2017 7:55 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Fri Apr 03, 2020 8:59 pm

caribny wrote:
gunnerman wrote:
Both of Guyana's international airports were mostly closed for a 2-week period from 19 March to 1 April with only local flights, cargo flights, MedEvac flights, technical refuelling stops and special authorised flights being permitted. I saw no point in a short closure to keep out international passengers with no exit strategy and predicted an extension, and it's happened as the Guyana CAA has extended the closure to 1 May.



Dont know why you think that small countries, with no global clout, can have an exit strategy.

Here is the exit strategy. New York state declaring that the Covid 19 pandemic is over so that these countries can be assured that a disease isnt going to arrive from that source to sicken their impoverished nations. Please look at what is happening in NYC and ask yourself how Guyana would cope if a pandemic reached their shores.

Jamaica listed the flights which brought Covid 19 to the island. One BA flight from LGW and a bunch of B6 flights from JFK. BW brought in some Corvid into GEO from JFK. B6 brought it from JFK to BGI.

When B6 and BW stop bringing viruses from NYC then these nations can exit their border closings. And if TT didn't close their borders its likely that BW crews would have insisted upon it, given that at least 13 had to be quarantined.

GEO will be closed until the end of May. If NYC hasn't solved its problems it will continue to be closed except for cargo and special flights.

Dont know why you think that locking down a country without an exit strategy makes any sort of sense. You really don't have to be a rocket scientist to figure out that if you carry out something really serious (like lockdown or invasion of a country) that it's essential to have an exit strategy. Just four days ago the Antigua and Barbuda PM Gaston Browne wrote to the World Bank asking for supension of debt payments and debt write-offs due to the devastating effect on the tourism industry caused by the withdrawal of flights and cruises, leading to "very high unemployment, and an increase in poverty levels that, inevitably, will spur more and varied crime - drug trafficking, proably becoming rampant". He's absolutely right, of course, but it does not seem to have occurred to him that he and the other Caribbean leaders have contributed to this horrrendous prospect by locking down their countries. They have completely crippled LIAT as it is no longer allowed to fly anywhere, the very airline which they know well is crucial to the well-being of so many countries.

So, were LIAT to ask their shareholder governments when and how the lockdowns will be removed, as important decisions need to be made on matters such as how long will operations be suspended for and the number of aircraft and crews to be made ready for flying, there will be no answer as the governments haven't a clue. This is no way to run an airline (not LIAT's fault) or a country.
 
embraer175e2
Posts: 291
Joined: Sat Mar 18, 2017 12:47 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Fri Apr 03, 2020 10:48 pm

gunnerman wrote:
caribny wrote:
gunnerman wrote:
Both of Guyana's international airports were mostly closed for a 2-week period from 19 March to 1 April with only local flights, cargo flights, MedEvac flights, technical refuelling stops and special authorised flights being permitted. I saw no point in a short closure to keep out international passengers with no exit strategy and predicted an extension, and it's happened as the Guyana CAA has extended the closure to 1 May.



Dont know why you think that small countries, with no global clout, can have an exit strategy.

Here is the exit strategy. New York state declaring that the Covid 19 pandemic is over so that these countries can be assured that a disease isnt going to arrive from that source to sicken their impoverished nations. Please look at what is happening in NYC and ask yourself how Guyana would cope if a pandemic reached their shores.

Jamaica listed the flights which brought Covid 19 to the island. One BA flight from LGW and a bunch of B6 flights from JFK. BW brought in some Corvid into GEO from JFK. B6 brought it from JFK to BGI.

When B6 and BW stop bringing viruses from NYC then these nations can exit their border closings. And if TT didn't close their borders its likely that BW crews would have insisted upon it, given that at least 13 had to be quarantined.

GEO will be closed until the end of May. If NYC hasn't solved its problems it will continue to be closed except for cargo and special flights.



interesting to know: Liat meanwhile says its cargo operations remain open.
Dont know why you think that locking down a country without an exit strategy makes any sort of sense. You really don't have to be a rocket scientist to figure out that if you carry out something really serious (like lockdown or invasion of a country) that it's essential to have an exit strategy. Just four days ago the Antigua and Barbuda PM Gaston Browne wrote to the World Bank asking for supension of debt payments and debt write-offs due to the devastating effect on the tourism industry caused by the withdrawal of flights and cruises, leading to "very high unemployment, and an increase in poverty levels that, inevitably, will spur more and varied crime - drug trafficking, proably becoming rampant". He's absolutely right, of course, but it does not seem to have occurred to him that he and the other Caribbean leaders have contributed to this horrrendous prospect by locking down their countries. They have completely crippled LIAT as it is no longer allowed to fly anywhere, the very airline which they know well is crucial to the well-being of so many countries.

So, were LIAT to ask their shareholder governments when and how the lockdowns will be removed, as important decisions need to be made on matters such as how long will operations be suspended for and the number of aircraft and crews to be made ready for flying, there will be no answer as the governments haven't a clue. This is no way to run an airline (not LIAT's fault) or a country.
 
embraer175e2
Posts: 291
Joined: Sat Mar 18, 2017 12:47 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Fri Apr 03, 2020 10:48 pm

interesting to know: Liat meanwhile says its cargo operations remain open.
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