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Caymanair
Posts: 499
Joined: Mon Apr 05, 2004 4:53 am

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Sat Apr 04, 2020 4:20 am

gunnerman wrote:
caribny wrote:
gunnerman wrote:
Both of Guyana's international airports were mostly closed for a 2-week period from 19 March to 1 April with only local flights, cargo flights, MedEvac flights, technical refuelling stops and special authorised flights being permitted. I saw no point in a short closure to keep out international passengers with no exit strategy and predicted an extension, and it's happened as the Guyana CAA has extended the closure to 1 May.



Dont know why you think that small countries, with no global clout, can have an exit strategy.

Here is the exit strategy. New York state declaring that the Covid 19 pandemic is over so that these countries can be assured that a disease isnt going to arrive from that source to sicken their impoverished nations. Please look at what is happening in NYC and ask yourself how Guyana would cope if a pandemic reached their shores.

Jamaica listed the flights which brought Covid 19 to the island. One BA flight from LGW and a bunch of B6 flights from JFK. BW brought in some Corvid into GEO from JFK. B6 brought it from JFK to BGI.

When B6 and BW stop bringing viruses from NYC then these nations can exit their border closings. And if TT didn't close their borders its likely that BW crews would have insisted upon it, given that at least 13 had to be quarantined.

GEO will be closed until the end of May. If NYC hasn't solved its problems it will continue to be closed except for cargo and special flights.

Dont know why you think that locking down a country without an exit strategy makes any sort of sense. You really don't have to be a rocket scientist to figure out that if you carry out something really serious (like lockdown or invasion of a country) that it's essential to have an exit strategy. Just four days ago the Antigua and Barbuda PM Gaston Browne wrote to the World Bank asking for supension of debt payments and debt write-offs due to the devastating effect on the tourism industry caused by the withdrawal of flights and cruises, leading to "very high unemployment, and an increase in poverty levels that, inevitably, will spur more and varied crime - drug trafficking, proably becoming rampant". He's absolutely right, of course, but it does not seem to have occurred to him that he and the other Caribbean leaders have contributed to this horrrendous prospect by locking down their countries. They have completely crippled LIAT as it is no longer allowed to fly anywhere, the very airline which they know well is crucial to the well-being of so many countries.

So, were LIAT to ask their shareholder governments when and how the lockdowns will be removed, as important decisions need to be made on matters such as how long will operations be suspended for and the number of aircraft and crews to be made ready for flying, there will be no answer as the governments haven't a clue. This is no way to run an airline (not LIAT's fault) or a country.



If anything, regional governments can be blamed for not locking off early enough. Of course they should have a strategy for containing and eliminating the virus within their borders so that the domestic economy can be re-opened, and once a level of comfort exists we could re-open borders within the region, but no one should be opening their borders to places like Canada, Europe, or the United States until (A) we can roll our rapid and accurate testing for all passengers before they board, or (B) other states have contained and eliminated it within their own populations.

The economic toll is large, and government will have to support populations for perhaps a couple of years, but it is also an opportunity for us to reset some economic parameters... which in reality we should have done a long time ago but which small-mindedness has prevented. That is the exit strategy.
 
caribny
Posts: 474
Joined: Sat Mar 16, 2019 1:47 am

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Sat Apr 04, 2020 4:53 am

gunnerman wrote:


Dont know why you think that locking down a country without an exit strategy makes any sort of sense. You really don't have to be a rocket scientist to figure out that if you carry out something really serious (like lockdown or invasion of a country) that it's essential to have an exit strategy. Just four days ago the Antigua and Barbuda PM Gaston Browne wrote to the World Bank asking for supension of debt payments and debt write-offs due to the devastating effect on the tourism industry caused by the withdrawal of flights and cruises, leading to "very high unemployment, and an increase in poverty levels that, inevitably, will spur more and varied crime - drug trafficking, proably becoming rampant". He's absolutely right, of course, but it does not seem to have occurred to him that he and the other Caribbean leaders have contributed to this horrrendous prospect by locking down their countries. They have completely crippled LIAT as it is no longer allowed to fly anywhere, the very airline which they know well is crucial to the well-being of so many countries.

So, were LIAT to ask their shareholder governments when and how the lockdowns will be removed, as important decisions need to be made on matters such as how long will operations be suspended for and the number of aircraft and crews to be made ready for flying, there will be no answer as the governments haven't a clue. This is no way to run an airline (not LIAT's fault) or a country.


BGI SVD is LIATs largest route and yet they collapsed service long before any shut downs occurred, even as neither of these islands had closed their borders as of earlier this week. Empty planes no doubt. 4x daily down to 2x. And then finally to just one flight.


Here is the reality. The airlines are all suffering because they had to ground their fleets. This because no one is flying, even on domestic flights. So when the virus moves on they will assess what their route strategy will be. What will NOT be a consideration will be lock downs by Caribbean countries. Each island will have to justify its existence and you bet that there will be demands for revenue guarantees. I am not even sure if UA and DL will even continue to service the Eastern Caribbean, given that both have announced that in a post Covid 19 world they will be smaller.

If the mighty BA had to ground their fleet why dont you think that tiny LIAT wouldn't have to do the same? Countries are all protecting their borders and most dont want to travel. Not a good business model to maintain flying.

https://www.cbc.bb/2020/03/17/major-hot ... ronavirus/

Hotels began to close a week before SLU closed its borders. SLU arguably having the strongest tourist product in the Eastern Caribbean. Even if it kept its borders open service would have been vastly reduced because airlines aren't going to fly empty. AA and B6 canceled service to BGI long before any travel restrictions. Empty planes.

So what again is this self inflicted wound? I can assure you that Caribbean vacations are the LAST things on anyone's minds. Even the wealthy are sheltering in places that having nothing to do with the Caribbean, because the last thing that they wish is to find no proper healthcare if they become sick. Gaston Browne himself stated that the planes were arriving empty and were operating mainly to repatriate US tourists and those resident on the island.

When OECS islands shut their borders it was in realization of the fact that tourism had ended so there was nothing to be gained by keeping them open. TT, Guyana and Suriname, who dont depend on tourism, shut down before. Jamaica and DR, with the largest populations and fear of what would happen if the disease became embedded, also closed their borders even though tourism is important. And here we are with the DR, 1,500 infections and 70 deaths, and each day bringing more!

Jamaica at 53 with only 3 deaths as they were the most aggressive Caribbean nation to implement full anti transmission regimens. Jamaica is smart enough to know that it was best to shut down its tourism and focus on controlling the spread of the disease. When its licked and others are ready to travel they will be readier for them. And I bet their marketing will feature that Covid 19 isnt a problem on that island because of measures that they quickly implemented.

Now suppose the headlines in the travel trade in the summer were ANU with 200 infections and 20 deaths!
 
embraer175e2
Posts: 291
Joined: Sat Mar 18, 2017 12:47 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Sat Apr 04, 2020 6:01 pm

How long will it take for PY to get their ETOPS licence ready?
 
embraer175e2
Posts: 291
Joined: Sat Mar 18, 2017 12:47 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Sat Apr 04, 2020 6:08 pm

How long before PY gets their ETOPs licence ready?
 
embraer175e2
Posts: 291
Joined: Sat Mar 18, 2017 12:47 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Sat Apr 04, 2020 7:23 pm

PZ Surinam Airways. How long will it take before they acquire their first ETOPS licence?
 
maverick4002
Posts: 291
Joined: Sun Jul 12, 2015 2:14 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Sat Apr 04, 2020 11:02 pm

gunnerman wrote:
caribny wrote:
gunnerman wrote:
Both of Guyana's international airports were mostly closed for a 2-week period from 19 March to 1 April with only local flights, cargo flights, MedEvac flights, technical refuelling stops and special authorised flights being permitted. I saw no point in a short closure to keep out international passengers with no exit strategy and predicted an extension, and it's happened as the Guyana CAA has extended the closure to 1 May.



Dont know why you think that small countries, with no global clout, can have an exit strategy.

Here is the exit strategy. New York state declaring that the Covid 19 pandemic is over so that these countries can be assured that a disease isnt going to arrive from that source to sicken their impoverished nations. Please look at what is happening in NYC and ask yourself how Guyana would cope if a pandemic reached their shores.

Jamaica listed the flights which brought Covid 19 to the island. One BA flight from LGW and a bunch of B6 flights from JFK. BW brought in some Corvid into GEO from JFK. B6 brought it from JFK to BGI.

When B6 and BW stop bringing viruses from NYC then these nations can exit their border closings. And if TT didn't close their borders its likely that BW crews would have insisted upon it, given that at least 13 had to be quarantined.

GEO will be closed until the end of May. If NYC hasn't solved its problems it will continue to be closed except for cargo and special flights.

Dont know why you think that locking down a country without an exit strategy makes any sort of sense. You really don't have to be a rocket scientist to figure out that if you carry out something really serious (like lockdown or invasion of a country) that it's essential to have an exit strategy. Just four days ago the Antigua and Barbuda PM Gaston Browne wrote to the World Bank asking for supension of debt payments and debt write-offs due to the devastating effect on the tourism industry caused by the withdrawal of flights and cruises, leading to "very high unemployment, and an increase in poverty levels that, inevitably, will spur more and varied crime - drug trafficking, proably becoming rampant". He's absolutely right, of course, but it does not seem to have occurred to him that he and the other Caribbean leaders have contributed to this horrrendous prospect by locking down their countries. They have completely crippled LIAT as it is no longer allowed to fly anywhere, the very airline which they know well is crucial to the well-being of so many countries.

So, were LIAT to ask their shareholder governments when and how the lockdowns will be removed, as important decisions need to be made on matters such as how long will operations be suspended for and the number of aircraft and crews to be made ready for flying, there will be no answer as the governments haven't a clue. This is no way to run an airline (not LIAT's fault) or a country.


Why are you so critical of these countries? A) NO ONE IS FLYING. Who exactly is coming to these countries if the borders were open 2) Most of their passengers come from highly infected areas. I am sure your tune would change if there is a massive outbreak in the islands, and then guess what, people will avoid it like the plague anyway. What exactly would have been your approach in this situation?
 
LimaFoxTango
Posts: 978
Joined: Wed Jun 16, 2004 11:33 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Sun Apr 05, 2020 4:41 pm

LI operated two more flights to HAV today. This time, doctors and nurses headed to BGI. I wonder once this is all over, if HAV could be a viable destination for LI. 5 hours on an ATR might not be too comfortable though, but I can imagine many students studying there might prefer this option over what's currently available.
You are said to be a good pilot when your take-off's equal your landings.
 
Brickell305
Posts: 1055
Joined: Sat Jun 24, 2017 2:07 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Sun Apr 05, 2020 5:55 pm

LimaFoxTango wrote:
LI operated two more flights to HAV today. This time, doctors and nurses headed to BGI. I wonder once this is all over, if HAV could be a viable destination for LI. 5 hours on an ATR might not be too comfortable though, but I can imagine many students studying there might prefer this option over what's currently available.

Probably too seasonal for a year round route but I could see them flying it during Christmas and summer. Also, how heavy would they be able to go on bags? As I’m sure students returning to Cuba would be fully packed on the way back from their respective home countries.

Also might be a good opportunity to work with BW and feed the POS-HAV flights as well.
 
baje427
Posts: 814
Joined: Mon Aug 01, 2011 12:42 am

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Sun Apr 05, 2020 6:02 pm

I cant see a 5 hour flight being viable for LI also I suspect LI will be much smaller after Covid. I believe LI will serve only profitable routes going forward as governments in the region will be in shambles financially.
 
embraer175e2
Posts: 291
Joined: Sat Mar 18, 2017 12:47 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Sun Apr 05, 2020 6:28 pm

SLM will wet lease the B777 untill they finalize a B787 deal for their Mid Atlantic operations.
 
trini81
Posts: 21
Joined: Tue Sep 04, 2018 8:26 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Mon Apr 06, 2020 2:10 pm

https://trinidadexpress.com/news/local/ ... f28b9.html

Article in local newspapers
“ NATIONAL carrier, Caribbean Airlines (CAL), has asked its majority shareholder, the Government of T&T, to guarantee a US$65 million ($441 million) loan to help keep it afloat in the coming months.

As it stands, CAL has just enough cash to pay its employees until the end of April.

The Express was told that CAL sent most of its pilots on vacation leave for the whole of April.“
 
Caymanair
Posts: 499
Joined: Mon Apr 05, 2004 4:53 am

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Tue Apr 07, 2020 11:16 am

A BA 777 arrived in Grand Cayman yesterday after a stop in Bermuda.140 Bermudians made it home from London and 60 Caymanians all of whom go directly to quarantine at government monitored facilities. It aslo brought a few thousand testing kits from the UK and other critical supplies. An InterCaribbean ERJ was already on the ground in GCM to take 20 UK military personnel to the Turks and Caicos.

It spent the night in GCM and will to depart for LHR today via NAS with 130 passengers headed to London. It will pick up stranded Brits in NAS:
 
caribny
Posts: 474
Joined: Sat Mar 16, 2019 1:47 am

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Tue Apr 07, 2020 4:47 pm

baje427 wrote:
I cant see a 5 hour flight being viable for LI also I suspect LI will be much smaller after Covid. I believe LI will serve only profitable routes going forward as governments in the region will be in shambles financially.



Which are the profitable routes though? LI has shed many routes, and reduced frequencies on others. They are a shadow of what they used to be on routes north/west of ANU. And the irony is that they have probably made those routes worse by these reductions.

The ANU SKB corridor was once seen as one of their more profitable with high load factors. Why? Because 50% of the passengers disembarked in SKB, and others boarded their joining people continuing on to the BVI/USVI/SXM. Now that service to the latter is reduced the overall loads are down. Others like Winair, Inter Caribbean, and air Sunshine have whittled away market shares on these routes.

They are now essentially a BGI focused carrier. So where are the loss making routes to be shed? The real issue is that high travel taxes have reduced intra regional travel thus hurting LIAT. I assume that the BGI French Antillean routes are reasonable as Air Antilles is now competing against LI, but the latter still flies these routes.
 
embraer175e2
Posts: 291
Joined: Sat Mar 18, 2017 12:47 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Wed Apr 08, 2020 4:14 pm

caribny wrote:
embraer175e2 wrote:
Inter Caribbeans E145, on which route(s) does it serve?



HAV/PLS from KIN and SDQ. Also SDQ SXM,


Do they operate some charters too with there erj145 ?
 
trini81
Posts: 21
Joined: Tue Sep 04, 2018 8:26 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Thu Apr 09, 2020 5:37 pm

Article below which states CAL plans a milk run between POS and SJU depending on the global economy picking up by Aug 2020

https://paxex.aero/2020/04/caribbean-ai ... nd-hopper/

According to the article some the routes are:
POS/DOM/BGI/ANU/EIS/SJU
POS/DOM/BGI/SXM/EIS/SJU
And the weirdest of all:
POS/DOM/BGI/SKB/ANU/PTP/SJU
 
gunnerman
Posts: 1147
Joined: Fri May 19, 2017 7:55 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Thu Apr 09, 2020 6:59 pm

It's hard work doing island hopping, look no further than LIAT.
 
Brickell305
Posts: 1055
Joined: Sat Jun 24, 2017 2:07 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Thu Apr 09, 2020 7:46 pm

trini81 wrote:
Article below which states CAL plans a milk run between POS and SJU depending on the global economy picking up by Aug 2020

https://paxex.aero/2020/04/caribbean-ai ... nd-hopper/

According to the article some the routes are:
POS/DOM/BGI/ANU/EIS/SJU
POS/DOM/BGI/SXM/EIS/SJU
And the weirdest of all:
POS/DOM/BGI/SKB/ANU/PTP/SJU

I guess they have to fly those new ATRs somewhere. Truly was an unfortunately timed order.
 
LimaFoxTango
Posts: 978
Joined: Wed Jun 16, 2004 11:33 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Thu Apr 09, 2020 8:46 pm

trini81 wrote:
Article below which states CAL plans a milk run between POS and SJU depending on the global economy picking up by Aug 2020

https://paxex.aero/2020/04/caribbean-ai ... nd-hopper/

According to the article some the routes are:
POS/DOM/BGI/ANU/EIS/SJU
POS/DOM/BGI/SXM/EIS/SJU
And the weirdest of all:
POS/DOM/BGI/SKB/ANU/PTP/SJU


While those may be potential new destinations for BW, I can't see them operating routes in the way mentioned. They make no geographical sense. I also don't see anyone making 6 stops just to get from POS to SJU.
You are said to be a good pilot when your take-off's equal your landings.
 
Brickell305
Posts: 1055
Joined: Sat Jun 24, 2017 2:07 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Thu Apr 09, 2020 9:28 pm

LimaFoxTango wrote:
trini81 wrote:
Article below which states CAL plans a milk run between POS and SJU depending on the global economy picking up by Aug 2020

https://paxex.aero/2020/04/caribbean-ai ... nd-hopper/

According to the article some the routes are:
POS/DOM/BGI/ANU/EIS/SJU
POS/DOM/BGI/SXM/EIS/SJU
And the weirdest of all:
POS/DOM/BGI/SKB/ANU/PTP/SJU


While those may be potential new destinations for BW, I can't see them operating routes in the way mentioned. They make no geographical sense. I also don't see anyone making 6 stops just to get from POS to SJU.

I don’t see that routing being attractive to anyone other than people going POS-DOM, DOM-BGI, and BGI-SXM. People going to/from ANU all have more frequency/convenience on LI. For SJU, demand to/from POS & BGI are better off on one stops thru ANU on the days LI serves it or even AA via MIA. DOM, PTP, ANU, EIS, SXM all have more frequent nonstop service on other carriers to/from SJU. The ANU-PTP frequency is competitive with LI so they might be able to compete there but that market is extremely thin. Best of luck to them on this though. I guess this beats flying the air bridge forty times a day.
 
Brickell305
Posts: 1055
Joined: Sat Jun 24, 2017 2:07 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Thu Apr 09, 2020 9:30 pm

I do suspect that as LI service comes back online, we may see increased usage of the milk run as well. A sort of return to the renowned island hopping days.
 
LimaFoxTango
Posts: 978
Joined: Wed Jun 16, 2004 11:33 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Thu Apr 09, 2020 10:40 pm

Brickell305 wrote:
I do suspect that as LI service comes back online, we may see increased usage of the milk run as well. A sort of return to the renowned island hopping days.


Prior to Covid, LI was actually about to move toward a more hub and spoke type scheduling. I'm not sure if that will be the same post Covid as airports will probably be coming online one by one. Even then, it's anyone's guess what would the traffic be like.
You are said to be a good pilot when your take-off's equal your landings.
 
caribny
Posts: 474
Joined: Sat Mar 16, 2019 1:47 am

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Fri Apr 10, 2020 4:46 am

I wonder what BWs goal is. Yes they do want to cover the Caribbean but is the goal merely to stop at every dot on the map? Or is it to pursue viable business opportunities.

SJU is already served by Seaborne/Silver from the nearby islands. Silver will definitely block them on the SJU EIS (maybe even SJU DOM). Inter Caribbean is already the "BVI" carrier on that route. Someone hasn't done their research.

So the best SJU opportunities for BW will be to connect it, to points down south like SLU, BGI and POS. Silver codeshares with some major US carriers so that's a whole segment that will not be available to BW. Their SJU route will be pure O&D.

Is it to add DOM, SKB and EIS? Yes some might like a LI alternative, especially if it bypasses ANU. Is BW going to abandon its existing service to ANU and SXM. Doubt it as its KIN service to these islands are important.

They seem to be putting a lot on DOM (btw is the intent to fly to DOM and back track to BGI and then fly north again?) Do they want to pick up markets out of DOM to points north? Small markets that can be stitched together, which is why LI serves them with the hub.

And why PTP? FDF out of POS might be interesting. LI barely manages to make PTP make sense.

BW is trying to do too much and so are pushing everything on a daily milk run. That route structure might have worked in the 1970s but Caribbean people want fast service and LI, with its hub and spoke will beat the pants out of them. Its not as if they are as bad was they were 5 years ago so BW isnt a "rescue". They will have better feed, faster service and higher frequencies.

BW needs to learn about markets other than POS. BGI, GEO and KIN before they venture into those markets. Clearly they dont know. The fact that they think that they are "saving" DOM and EIS for the US traveler shows that they dont know too much. Silver is a US carrier, as is Cape.
Last edited by caribny on Fri Apr 10, 2020 5:03 am, edited 2 times in total.
 
caribny
Posts: 474
Joined: Sat Mar 16, 2019 1:47 am

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Fri Apr 10, 2020 4:56 am

Milk run for LI will be combining GND and SVD on routes to BGI. Dont see them going back to the "Lost Inbetween Antigua & Trinidad" (LIAT) days when they stopped at every island between POS and ANU.
 
baje427
Posts: 814
Joined: Mon Aug 01, 2011 12:42 am

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Fri Apr 10, 2020 5:29 am

At this point everything is up in the air I dont see Cal pursuing that milk run in the short term perhaps this was their plan pre Covid. Cal's biggest markets JFK and YYZ will take a while to rebuild I assume cash conservation will be the name of the game. Unemployment in the Caribbean is likely to be well over 15% travel numbers will take a long time to rebound.
 
Brickell305
Posts: 1055
Joined: Sat Jun 24, 2017 2:07 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Fri Apr 10, 2020 12:11 pm

baje427 wrote:
At this point everything is up in the air I dont see Cal pursuing that milk run in the short term perhaps this was their plan pre Covid. Cal's biggest markets JFK and YYZ will take a while to rebuild I assume cash conservation will be the name of the game. Unemployment in the Caribbean is likely to be well over 15% travel numbers will take a long time to rebound.

Per the article, BW filed that with authorities within the last week. It seems as if that is the plan, COVID or not.
 
gunnerman
Posts: 1147
Joined: Fri May 19, 2017 7:55 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Fri Apr 10, 2020 12:48 pm

Every airline in the world will emerge smaller from this crisis - if they indeed survive at all. We will see smaller fleets operating smaller route networks, and I'm expecting some destinations such as Grenada and Tobago to suffer heavy cutbacks from north America and Europe. I say again that the deeply indebted shareholder governments must look once more at merging LI and BW to operate at a lower cost a fleet (smaller than the current combined 16) of ATRs in the region. It just isn't good enough to keep the same biases and business models and raise the same objections as if nothing's changed in the past few months.
 
Brickell305
Posts: 1055
Joined: Sat Jun 24, 2017 2:07 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Fri Apr 10, 2020 4:07 pm

Here's an article providing a bit more detail on the proposed milk runs: https://simpleflying.com/caribbean-airl ... sland-run/

The aircraft will overnight in SJU. The flights will run:

POS/DOM/BGI/ANU/EIS/SJU - Tue/Fri (return Wed/Sat) launching Aug 1
POS/DOM/BGI/SXM/EIS/SJU - Sun/Wed (return Mon/Thu) launching Aug 3
POS/DOM/BGI/SKB/ANU/PTP/SJU - Mon/Thu/Sat (return Tue/Fri/Sun) launching Aug 4

Per the article, this was filed on April 8 so the airline filed with full knowledge of the COVID situation.

Personally, I can see these being a viable routing for the following markets:

POS-DOM (only nonstop on the market)
POS-BGI (only competitor is LI who generally routes with one stops as well. They can get the overflow from their own nonstops)
DOM-BGI (daily nonstop should be sufficient to compete with LI)
BGI-SXM (only nonstop on the market should counter low frequency)
ANU-PTP (offers as much frequency as LI)
ANU-SJU (offers more frequency than LI which could counter the one stop inconvenience. Harder to compete with Seaborne/Silver)
EIS-SJU (relatively low frequency compared to competitors but may not matter in primarily leisure market)
PTP-SJU (not sure how frequently Air Antilles this but 3x weekly doesn't seem insufficient to compete)

Outside of those, i think the routing is pretty peculiar. All the markets it would serve best are relatively thin even by regional standards. Maybe this is just a way to create brand awareness in all of the new markets until traffic rebounds and more direct routing can be planned.
 
aa1818
Posts: 1556
Joined: Sat Feb 04, 2006 2:03 am

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Fri Apr 10, 2020 8:24 pm

Brickell305 wrote:
Here's an article providing a bit more detail on the proposed milk runs: https://simpleflying.com/caribbean-airl ... sland-run/

The aircraft will overnight in SJU. The flights will run:

POS/DOM/BGI/ANU/EIS/SJU - Tue/Fri (return Wed/Sat) launching Aug 1
POS/DOM/BGI/SXM/EIS/SJU - Sun/Wed (return Mon/Thu) launching Aug 3
POS/DOM/BGI/SKB/ANU/PTP/SJU - Mon/Thu/Sat (return Tue/Fri/Sun) launching Aug 4


So with 9Y-TTA back in service, the previous 5 aircraft could have handled the existing schedule for ATRs comfortably.
The additional 4, of which 2 have been received I believe, need to be allocated.

the POS/SJU routings would take care of almost 2 whole aircrafts, especially as they will RON in SJU.
So there are two additional aircraft (if they come) to be utilized.
OGL has to be on there. Perhaps switching CUR to ATR and upping frequency, maybe adding AUA? those would barely account for 1 of the 2.
What else?

Cheers,
AA1818
“The moment you doubt whether you can fly, you cease for ever to be able to do it.” J.M. Barrie (Peter Pan)
 
caribny
Posts: 474
Joined: Sat Mar 16, 2019 1:47 am

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Fri Apr 10, 2020 9:12 pm

gunnerman wrote:
Every airline in the world will emerge smaller from this crisis - if they indeed survive at all. We will see smaller fleets operating smaller route networks, and I'm expecting some destinations such as Grenada and Tobago to suffer heavy cutbacks from north America and Europe. I say again that the deeply indebted shareholder governments must look once more at merging LI and BW to operate at a lower cost a fleet (smaller than the current combined 16) of ATRs in the region. It just isn't good enough to keep the same biases and business models and raise the same objections as if nothing's changed in the past few months.



A BW LI merger isnt going to happen. T&T isnt going to assume the burdens of LI, and BGI/OECS aren't going to burden themselves with BW given its marginal use to them. The most that might happen is that they coordinate schedules, and that assumes that BW abandons its milk run plan, which signifies a major intent to compete with LI. I suspect that there is excess capacity out of POS to the OECS.

What I can see happening is T&T making BW abandon its Jamaica/North America routes given that the govt of Jamaica isnt going to provide any assistance to BW. These are loss making routes and that isnt going to change. Jamaica is a big market and the US carriers will be back. It will be the Eastern Caribbean which will lose service, especially from DL and UA.
 
caribny
Posts: 474
Joined: Sat Mar 16, 2019 1:47 am

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Sat Apr 11, 2020 12:32 am

aa1818 wrote:
Brickell305 wrote:
Here's an article providing a bit more detail on the proposed milk runs: https://simpleflying.com/caribbean-airl ... sland-run/

The aircraft will overnight in SJU. The flights will run:

POS/DOM/BGI/ANU/EIS/SJU - Tue/Fri (return Wed/Sat) launching Aug 1
POS/DOM/BGI/SXM/EIS/SJU - Sun/Wed (return Mon/Thu) launching Aug 3
POS/DOM/BGI/SKB/ANU/PTP/SJU - Mon/Thu/Sat (return Tue/Fri/Sun) launching Aug 4


So with 9Y-TTA back in service, the previous 5 aircraft could have handled the existing schedule for ATRs comfortably.
The additional 4, of which 2 have been received I believe, need to be allocated.

the POS/SJU routings would take care of almost 2 whole aircrafts, especially as they will RON in SJU.
So there are two additional aircraft (if they come) to be utilized.
OGL has to be on there. Perhaps switching CUR to ATR and upping frequency, maybe adding AUA? those would barely account for 1 of the 2.
What else?

Cheers,
AA1818


I assume that any additional ATRs will be canceled/delayed if at all possible. That plan was with BW being cash sufficient. Now they are in a hole, and even that depends on them being able to offer some level of service in Jul/August.

EIS SJU isnt going to happen as that route has 3 carriers, all of which will file to block BW. If EIS is based on that then it isnt going to happen. I cannot imagine there is more travel from EIS to points south than from SKB, with that island being the financial center of the OECS with the ECCB and other related financial institutions.

OGL is an idea, especially if LI is forced to drop the route due to reduced travel. That might allow BW to right size its operations, and maybe even get back some of the MIA GEO it lost to AA. Some might prefer night arrivals at OGL instead of GEO.

file:///C:/Users/micha/OneDrive/Desktop/intra%20oecs%20travel.pdf

This might be of interest. A bit dated and intra regional travel has somewhat recovered since then. Maybe BW can run a POS DOM SKB SXM service. And then run SJU on a faster route than a milk run.
 
embraer175e2
Posts: 291
Joined: Sat Mar 18, 2017 12:47 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Tue Apr 14, 2020 1:15 am

caribny wrote:
aa1818 wrote:
Brickell305 wrote:
Here's an article providing a bit more detail on the proposed milk runs: https://simpleflying.com/caribbean-airl ... sland-run/

The aircraft will overnight in SJU. The flights will run:

POS/DOM/BGI/ANU/EIS/SJU - Tue/Fri (return Wed/Sat) launching Aug 1
POS/DOM/BGI/SXM/EIS/SJU - Sun/Wed (return Mon/Thu) launching Aug 3
POS/DOM/BGI/SKB/ANU/PTP/SJU - Mon/Thu/Sat (return Tue/Fri/Sun) launching Aug 4


So with 9Y-TTA back in service, the previous 5 aircraft could have handled the existing schedule for ATRs comfortably.
The additional 4, of which 2 have been received I believe, need to be allocated.

the POS/SJU routings would take care of almost 2 whole aircrafts, especially as they will RON in SJU.
So there are two additional aircraft (if they come) to be utilized.
OGL has to be on there. Perhaps switching CUR to ATR and upping frequency, maybe adding AUA? those would barely account for 1 of the 2.
What else?

Cheers,
AA1818


I assume that any additional ATRs will be canceled/delayed if at all possible. That plan was with BW being cash sufficient. Now they are in a hole, and even that depends on them being able to offer some level of service in Jul/August.

EIS SJU isnt going to happen as that route has 3 carriers, all of which will file to block BW. If EIS is based on that then it isnt going to happen. I cannot imagine there is more travel from EIS to points south than from SKB, with that island being the financial center of the OECS with the ECCB and other related financial institutions.

OGL is an idea, especially if LI is forced to drop the route due to reduced travel. That might allow BW to right size its operations, and maybe even get back some of the MIA GEO it lost to AA. Some might prefer night arrivals at OGL instead of GEO.

file:///C:/Users/micha/OneDrive/Desktop/intra%20oecs%20travel.pdf

This might be of interest. A bit dated and intra regional travel has somewhat recovered since then. Maybe BW can run a POS DOM SKB SXM service. And then run SJU on a faster route than a milk run.

Caribbean Airlines flying all

across the caribbean with their big atr fleet.
 
caribbeanSwag
Posts: 15
Joined: Sun Mar 22, 2020 6:30 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Tue Apr 14, 2020 3:34 am

Kind of upset when Bahamasair discontinued Houston and Chicago flights. Was good to see a Caribbean airline gaining momentum in USA. But is makes since since they have no alliance affiliation, which most leisure travelers use.
 
baje427
Posts: 814
Joined: Mon Aug 01, 2011 12:42 am

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Mon Apr 27, 2020 3:02 am

With Covid taking its toll I really wonder what will be left of the Caribbean. Beyond aviation this is an economic storm that most islands will not recover from.
 
gunnerman
Posts: 1147
Joined: Fri May 19, 2017 7:55 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Mon Apr 27, 2020 4:58 pm

This is a brief UK-centric answer. VS, even if rescued, looks unlikely to restart its Caribbean flights in the near future, and BA will be smaller. The destinations most likely to get scheduled flights again from UK are:
For the eastern Caribbean: BGI, UVF and ANU with a possibility for POS. I have considerable doubts about TAB, GND and SKB.
For the western Caribbean: NAS and GCM, with a possibility for KIN and PUJ. I have considerable doubts about HAV, MBJ, CUN and PLS. I would also expect some charter flights to MBJ, CUN, Cuba and Dominican Republic by TUI.
 
Caymanair
Posts: 499
Joined: Mon Apr 05, 2004 4:53 am

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Mon Apr 27, 2020 8:57 pm

gunnerman wrote:
This is a brief UK-centric answer. VS, even if rescued, looks unlikely to restart its Caribbean flights in the near future, and BA will be smaller. The destinations most likely to get scheduled flights again from UK are:
For the eastern Caribbean: BGI, UVF and ANU with a possibility for POS. I have considerable doubts about TAB, GND and SKB.
For the western Caribbean: NAS and GCM, with a possibility for KIN and PUJ. I have considerable doubts about HAV, MBJ, CUN and PLS. I would also expect some charter flights to MBJ, CUN, Cuba and Dominican Republic by TUI.


PLS will be required. As a overseas territory, it will have service from London even if it is a highly subsidized service once a week. I can't imagine either the TCI government or the FCO allowing that to disappear...
 
caribny
Posts: 474
Joined: Sat Mar 16, 2019 1:47 am

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Mon Apr 27, 2020 9:40 pm

gunnerman wrote:
This is a brief UK-centric answer. VS, even if rescued, looks unlikely to restart its Caribbean flights in the near future, and BA will be smaller. The destinations most likely to get scheduled flights again from UK are:
For the eastern Caribbean: BGI, UVF and ANU with a possibility for POS. I have considerable doubts about TAB, GND and SKB.
For the western Caribbean: NAS and GCM, with a possibility for KIN and PUJ. I have considerable doubts about HAV, MBJ, CUN and PLS. I would also expect some charter flights to MBJ, CUN, Cuba and Dominican Republic by TUI.



Only issue with BAs flights is some are tag on so if the smaller markets are dropped then they will have to reduce service to the main point. ANU isnt going to get 6-7x weekly if they drop SKB, TAB and PLS. So maybe ANU goes to 3-4x or is tagged to UVF. KIN is a strong VFR market so a better bet than PUJ.

NAS/GCM are business markets linked to offshore finance. Those guys will telecommute so less business travel. The tech/finance sectors will see the most drastic changes in business travel in a post COVID 19 world.

VS is heavy leisure. Maybe BGI is back, but the charters might take over much of that travel to the Caribbean. VS already demanded subsidies out of some of their Caribbean destinations. UVF refused so were dropped. ANU has major cash issues now so might well do the same and just rely on more BA plus TUI. In fact if VS goes that might allow ANU daily BA service without the need for tag on flights.

Of course the UK is going through COVID 19 trauma. Will UK passengers be in the mood to spend 9 hours in a crowded tube? One thing going for the Caribbean is that these are the nearest reliably warm weather destinations, so they might pick up from other places.
 
caribny
Posts: 474
Joined: Sat Mar 16, 2019 1:47 am

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Mon Apr 27, 2020 9:55 pm

Caymanair wrote:
gunnerman wrote:
This is a brief UK-centric answer. VS, even if rescued, looks unlikely to restart its Caribbean flights in the near future, and BA will be smaller. The destinations most likely to get scheduled flights again from UK are:
For the eastern Caribbean: BGI, UVF and ANU with a possibility for POS. I have considerable doubts about TAB, GND and SKB.
For the western Caribbean: NAS and GCM, with a possibility for KIN and PUJ. I have considerable doubts about HAV, MBJ, CUN and PLS. I would also expect some charter flights to MBJ, CUN, Cuba and Dominican Republic by TUI.


PLS will be required. As a overseas territory, it will have service from London even if it is a highly subsidized service once a week. I can't imagine either the TCI government or the FCO allowing that to disappear...



EIS and AXA dont have direct service for obvious reasons. PLS can be served via NAS using some special arrangement with Inter Caribbean, which is a UK (territory) carrier. They already offer that connectivity to EIS via ANU. Currently BA serves PLS via its ANU tag on.
 
maverick4002
Posts: 291
Joined: Sun Jul 12, 2015 2:14 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Mon Apr 27, 2020 10:34 pm

Maybe the Caribbean govt's will use any potential drop in UK passengers to reduce the taxes and make intra-regional travel more affordable. Not a complete replacement but money is money. It's way to expensive to fly between the islands.
 
Brickell305
Posts: 1055
Joined: Sat Jun 24, 2017 2:07 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Mon Apr 27, 2020 10:57 pm

maverick4002 wrote:
Maybe the Caribbean govt's will use any potential drop in UK passengers to reduce the taxes and make intra-regional travel more affordable. Not a complete replacement but money is money. It's way to expensive to fly between the islands.

I highly doubt that the regional governments already facing a severe decline in revenue from reduced VAT, hotel tax, income tax, aviation’s taxes, etc. will be looking to reduce taxes in any way, shape or form.
 
gunnerman
Posts: 1147
Joined: Fri May 19, 2017 7:55 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Mon Apr 27, 2020 10:58 pm

The problem with reducing taxes is that the Caribbean governments, already poor, are getting poorer by a combination of the worldwide impact of Covid-19 and their own lockdowns. Then there is the price of oil whose collapse will make Trinidad & Tobago's shaky economy even worse. And we mustn't forget that to get LI and BW flying will require their government shareholders to provide further funds.

So, there will be some thinking needed to encourage crucial tourism and flights whilst keeping taxes as high as possible.
 
Brickell305
Posts: 1055
Joined: Sat Jun 24, 2017 2:07 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Tue Apr 28, 2020 6:04 pm

gunnerman wrote:
This is a brief UK-centric answer. VS, even if rescued, looks unlikely to restart its Caribbean flights in the near future, and BA will be smaller. The destinations most likely to get scheduled flights again from UK are:
For the eastern Caribbean: BGI, UVF and ANU with a possibility for POS. I have considerable doubts about TAB, GND and SKB.
For the western Caribbean: NAS and GCM, with a possibility for KIN and PUJ. I have considerable doubts about HAV, MBJ, CUN and PLS. I would also expect some charter flights to MBJ, CUN, Cuba and Dominican Republic by TUI.

BA will certainly be smaller after all is said and done. https://thepointsguy.com/news/ba-staff- ... ronavirus/

It'll be interesting to see how much focus there will be on LGW at a smaller BA.
 
gunnerman
Posts: 1147
Joined: Fri May 19, 2017 7:55 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Tue Apr 28, 2020 7:53 pm

If BA were to resume Caribbean flights this year it can be done from LHR T5, and any expansion of the operation which cannot be accommodated in T5 in later years can be done from T3. I suspect that we've seen the last of BA at LGW. Incidentally the pilots would welcome not having to trek to LGW to get to work.
 
caribny
Posts: 474
Joined: Sat Mar 16, 2019 1:47 am

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Tue Apr 28, 2020 8:37 pm

gunnerman wrote:
The problem with reducing taxes is that the Caribbean governments, already poor, are getting poorer by a combination of the worldwide impact of Covid-19 and their own lockdowns. Then there is the price of oil whose collapse will make Trinidad & Tobago's shaky economy even worse. And we mustn't forget that to get LI and BW flying will require their government shareholders to provide further funds.

So, there will be some thinking needed to encourage crucial tourism and flights whilst keeping taxes as high as possible.


With BW making plans to more deeply penetrate LIATs markets deep conversations will occur. The Caribbean will be impacted probably more in a post Covid 19 world as it is unknown how travel markets will respond or whether potential visitors will even have the disposable income to travel. This especially applies to islands like BGI which is very dependent on Europe as its largest source market. I suspect that long distance travel will be especially impacted. There is a "cabin fever" impact but that might induce only quick travel to nearby destinations. Elections are due in the USA later this year so that market isnt going to be back until next year.

There is already talk about more intra regional travel but the vexing travel tax issue remains. Stretched over a narrower base of travelers and with much of these revenues being already pledged for specific purposes I dont think there is flexibility, even if they wanted to fix the problem. Maybe Caribbean people, skeptical of trips to the USA, might look to vacation within the Caribbean itself. BGI is a popular Caribbean vacation spot, so should benefit. The "quieter" islands, probably less so.

LI has already cut many of its routes (22 destinations down to 15). They have also slashed service to places like SXM and SJU, so I dont know where else they can cut without damaging itself and providing entry points for competitors. LIs cuts in the northeast Caribbean have already emboldened WINAIR, Air Sunshine and Inter Caribbean, though these carriers have also been hurt by the lockdowns. T&T is a relatively large economy so might find some cash to enable BW to restructure. Dont know what LIAT plans to do.
 
caribny
Posts: 474
Joined: Sat Mar 16, 2019 1:47 am

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Tue Apr 28, 2020 8:45 pm

gunnerman wrote:
If BA were to resume Caribbean flights this year it can be done from LHR T5, and any expansion of the operation which cannot be accommodated in T5 in later years can be done from T3. I suspect that we've seen the last of BA at LGW. Incidentally the pilots would welcome not having to trek to LGW to get to work.



They are going to have to focus on their high yield routes. Not sure where that leaves much of the Caribbean. BA removed its Caribbean flights to LGW for a reason. LHR is too high cost to justify low yield leisure flights.
 
gunnerman
Posts: 1147
Joined: Fri May 19, 2017 7:55 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Tue Apr 28, 2020 8:59 pm

BA moved to LGW because it ran out of space at LHR. Despite having moved its LHR T3 operation into T5 BA is rattling around T5 with just a handful of flights yesterday. It won't make sense to increase costs by reopening LGW when there is plenty of space at LHR, who wants two hubs when one will do? And bear in mind that Heathrow Airport desperately needs all the traffic it can get and will no doubt be amenable to reducing its charges.
 
Brickell305
Posts: 1055
Joined: Sat Jun 24, 2017 2:07 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Tue Apr 28, 2020 9:18 pm

caribny wrote:
gunnerman wrote:
The problem with reducing taxes is that the Caribbean governments, already poor, are getting poorer by a combination of the worldwide impact of Covid-19 and their own lockdowns. Then there is the price of oil whose collapse will make Trinidad & Tobago's shaky economy even worse. And we mustn't forget that to get LI and BW flying will require their government shareholders to provide further funds.

So, there will be some thinking needed to encourage crucial tourism and flights whilst keeping taxes as high as possible.


With BW making plans to more deeply penetrate LIATs markets deep conversations will occur. The Caribbean will be impacted probably more in a post Covid 19 world as it is unknown how travel markets will respond or whether potential visitors will even have the disposable income to travel. This especially applies to islands like BGI which is very dependent on Europe as its largest source market. I suspect that long distance travel will be especially impacted. There is a "cabin fever" impact but that might induce only quick travel to nearby destinations. Elections are due in the USA later this year so that market isnt going to be back until next year.

There is already talk about more intra regional travel but the vexing travel tax issue remains. Stretched over a narrower base of travelers and with much of these revenues being already pledged for specific purposes I dont think there is flexibility, even if they wanted to fix the problem. Maybe Caribbean people, skeptical of trips to the USA, might look to vacation within the Caribbean itself. BGI is a popular Caribbean vacation spot, so should benefit. The "quieter" islands, probably less so.

LI has already cut many of its routes (22 destinations down to 15). They have also slashed service to places like SXM and SJU, so I dont know where else they can cut without damaging itself and providing entry points for competitors. LIs cuts in the northeast Caribbean have already emboldened WINAIR, Air Sunshine and Inter Caribbean, though these carriers have also been hurt by the lockdowns. T&T is a relatively large economy so might find some cash to enable BW to restructure. Dont know what LIAT plans to do.


The main issue I see with compensating for reduced external traffic with regional traffic is that the region is likely to be more affected economically than the external market. So while for example people from Antigua generally may not be afraid (pandemic wise) to travel to St. Lucia for leisure purposes, they may simply not have the money to do it.The other issue is major festivals are a huge impetus for regional travel. With carnivals, sports events and music festivals canceled for the rest of the year, that will also reduce demand significantly.
 
caribny
Posts: 474
Joined: Sat Mar 16, 2019 1:47 am

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Wed Apr 29, 2020 1:47 am

Brickell305 wrote:
caribny wrote:
gunnerman wrote:
The problem with reducing taxes is that the Caribbean governments, already poor, are getting poorer by a combination of the worldwide impact of Covid-19 and their own lockdowns. Then there is the price of oil whose collapse will make Trinidad & Tobago's shaky economy even worse. And we mustn't forget that to get LI and BW flying will require their government shareholders to provide further funds.

So, there will be some thinking needed to encourage crucial tourism and flights whilst keeping taxes as high as possible.


With BW making plans to more deeply penetrate LIATs markets deep conversations will occur. The Caribbean will be impacted probably more in a post Covid 19 world as it is unknown how travel markets will respond or whether potential visitors will even have the disposable income to travel. This especially applies to islands like BGI which is very dependent on Europe as its largest source market. I suspect that long distance travel will be especially impacted. There is a "cabin fever" impact but that might induce only quick travel to nearby destinations. Elections are due in the USA later this year so that market isnt going to be back until next year.

There is already talk about more intra regional travel but the vexing travel tax issue remains. Stretched over a narrower base of travelers and with much of these revenues being already pledged for specific purposes I dont think there is flexibility, even if they wanted to fix the problem. Maybe Caribbean people, skeptical of trips to the USA, might look to vacation within the Caribbean itself. BGI is a popular Caribbean vacation spot, so should benefit. The "quieter" islands, probably less so.

LI has already cut many of its routes (22 destinations down to 15). They have also slashed service to places like SXM and SJU, so I dont know where else they can cut without damaging itself and providing entry points for competitors. LIs cuts in the northeast Caribbean have already emboldened WINAIR, Air Sunshine and Inter Caribbean, though these carriers have also been hurt by the lockdowns. T&T is a relatively large economy so might find some cash to enable BW to restructure. Dont know what LIAT plans to do.


The main issue I see with compensating for reduced external traffic with regional traffic is that the region is likely to be more affected economically than the external market. So while for example people from Antigua generally may not be afraid (pandemic wise) to travel to St. Lucia for leisure purposes, they may simply not have the money to do it.The other issue is major festivals are a huge impetus for regional travel. With carnivals, sports events and music festivals canceled for the rest of the year, that will also reduce demand significantly.


Yes true. Though the ones with cabin fever might still travel, if they have the income. Hotel rates will be real low.
 
caribbean484
Posts: 903
Joined: Sat Jan 06, 2007 1:57 am

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Wed Apr 29, 2020 1:20 pm

gunnerman wrote:
This is a brief UK-centric answer. VS, even if rescued, looks unlikely to restart its Caribbean flights in the near future, and BA will be smaller. The destinations most likely to get scheduled flights again from UK are:
For the eastern Caribbean: BGI, UVF and ANU with a possibility for POS. I have considerable doubts about TAB, GND and SKB.
For the western Caribbean: NAS and GCM, with a possibility for KIN and PUJ. I have considerable doubts about HAV, MBJ, CUN and PLS. I would also expect some charter flights to MBJ, CUN, Cuba and Dominican Republic by TUI.


It will be difficult to see VS go, I always liked their service and staff and hopefully they do get some private investors to help then during this time or crisis. It will also be hard on some countries to just depend on BA and to a lower extent TUI

caribny wrote:
gunnerman wrote:
If BA were to resume Caribbean flights this year it can be done from LHR T5, and any expansion of the operation which cannot be accommodated in T5 in later years can be done from T3. I suspect that we've seen the last of BA at LGW. Incidentally the pilots would welcome not having to trek to LGW to get to work.



They are going to have to focus on their high yield routes. Not sure where that leaves much of the Caribbean. BA removed its Caribbean flights to LGW for a reason. LHR is too high cost to justify low yield leisure flights.


I doubt that BA will move leisure destination flights from LGW to LHR, their is an entire different cost structure for crew based in LGW then LHR that works well for BA. At this time tourism is down in the doldrums for the next 12 months as people are losing jobs. Fear of the Covid19 will mostly dry up by fall, but the job loses from shutting down countries will have a longer effect. The issue is right now outside maybe tech, all other industries are feeling the pinch of the shutdowns and the Q2 will see such a massive reduction in GDP not seen since the great recession.

I feel it for the Caribbean islands that are already on an IMF program as they are really going to have to make serious decisions. St Lucia has already cut salaries of ministers and if things don't return soon, they may cut public servants salaries also. T&T is facing unprecedented lower oil prices and the rest of the region is suffering as trade has slowed significantly.
All ah we is one family
 
gunnerman
Posts: 1147
Joined: Fri May 19, 2017 7:55 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Wed Apr 29, 2020 2:45 pm

caribbean484 wrote:
I doubt that BA will move leisure destination flights from LGW to LHR, their is an entire different cost structure for crew based in LGW then LHR that works well for BA. At this time tourism is down in the doldrums for the next 12 months as people are losing jobs. Fear of the Covid19 will mostly dry up by fall, but the job loses from shutting down countries will have a longer effect. The issue is right now outside maybe tech, all other industries are feeling the pinch of the shutdowns and the Q2 will see such a massive reduction in GDP not seen since the great recession.

What you say used to be true many years ago but is no longer so. BA introduced mixed fleet flying (MFF) at LGW whereby cabin crew flew on multiple aircraft types and did so on low salaries and allowances. When BA brought in Mixed fleet at LHR in 2009 the contract was based on MFF and indeed the salaries and allowances were almost identical. There's now going to be significant cutbacks and I expect the legacy - and expensive - cabin crew fleets of Worldwide fleet and Eurofleet to be taken out and the crew made redundant.
 
caribny
Posts: 474
Joined: Sat Mar 16, 2019 1:47 am

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Wed Apr 29, 2020 7:28 pm

I also hope that this hurricane season is kind to these islands. Hurricane Covid 19 is as bad as Maria, Irma and Dorian simultaneously hitting an island. This didn't come at the best of times as most of these islands were negotiating their way out of indebtedness and have limited flexibility. IMF borrowings come with conditions and I doubt that this will be enough.

As much as people lambaste tourism as high risk it is what is left. Export agriculture to protected EU markets is over. Both the import substitution and the export assembly type of manufacturing has failed. Its tourism that's left and now that is in jeopardy as source markets are seeing their economies dropped, attitudes to long distance travel in a Covid 19 world unknown, and severe down sizing by airlines will result in sharply reduced capacity, dropped routes and higher fares. The IMF will likely not allow MRGs so the more tenuous leisure heavy routes are at risk.


I dont think that Caribbean people know what just hit them.
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