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Brickell305
Posts: 1057
Joined: Sat Jun 24, 2017 2:07 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Thu Apr 30, 2020 1:39 pm

BA may not reopen LGW once the pandemic passes:

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-52489013

I figured LGW would likely be on the chopping block at a smaller BA. I know people think it's unlikely that BA will fly its LGW destinations out of LHR. However at a smaller BA, if LHR slot usage requirements do return, I can see BA transferring at least some of those destinations there. The most likely IMO being MCO, BGI, BDA.
 
gunnerman
Posts: 1147
Joined: Fri May 19, 2017 7:55 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Thu Apr 30, 2020 3:21 pm

BA downsized its LGW operations years ago and in 2007 declined to buy its franchisee GB Airways (which finished up in easyjet's hands who went on to becoming LGW's biggest airline). Now that BA itself (and all other airlines that survive) will be much smaller at LHR there is no prospect in the foreseeable future of capacity becoming so full at LHR that an overflow into LGW will be required. I think I'll hang onto the baggage tag of my last BA flight from GND to LGW in February as a momento.
 
caribny
Posts: 475
Joined: Sat Mar 16, 2019 1:47 am

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Thu Apr 30, 2020 5:21 pm

So VS maybe no longer and now BA might only focus on its highest yielding Caribbean routes. Tough times.
 
gunnerman
Posts: 1147
Joined: Fri May 19, 2017 7:55 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Thu Apr 30, 2020 9:37 pm

It's hard for outsiders to understand:
1. How BA could be thinking of shedding a quarter of its workforce without first consulting with the unions
2. The impact of BA no longer operating at LGW

All of our normal understanding of the aviation business (and a lot of other businesses and government workings) must be reexamined in the light of this crisis. We have to brace ourselves for VS's collapse, BA flying to a handful of Caribbean destinations and several destinations not getting flights for years.
 
baje427
Posts: 815
Joined: Mon Aug 01, 2011 12:42 am

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Thu Apr 30, 2020 11:12 pm

I dont think most people truly grasp how bad things are about to get in the Caribbean. I highly doubt any of Cal's Caribbean expansion dreams will happen furthermore we should expect a major fleet cut or possibly its demise. Most people in the source markets wont have that disposable income for a while so a Caribbean holiday will be out of the picture for most. BDA,and GCM are safe on the BA front given they are overseas territories. There is a strong possibility of no UK service to any other Caribbean island for the foreseeable future. Its also unlikely Canada will be open for international travel this year and the Covid situation in the USA means allowing flights from there would be a public health risk. Its going to take a lot of ingenuity but I think its safe to say the Caribbean will have to find a way forward without tourism because its unlikely to generate any significant income for the next few years.
 
Brickell305
Posts: 1057
Joined: Sat Jun 24, 2017 2:07 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Thu Apr 30, 2020 11:50 pm

baje427 wrote:
I dont think most people truly grasp how bad things are about to get in the Caribbean. I highly doubt any of Cal's Caribbean expansion dreams will happen furthermore we should expect a major fleet cut or possibly its demise. Most people in the source markets wont have that disposable income for a while so a Caribbean holiday will be out of the picture for most. BDA,and GCM are safe on the BA front given they are overseas territories. There is a strong possibility of no UK service to any other Caribbean island for the foreseeable future. Its also unlikely Canada will be open for international travel this year and the Covid situation in the USA means allowing flights from there would be a public health risk. Its going to take a lot of ingenuity but I think its safe to say the Caribbean will have to find a way forward without tourism because its unlikely to generate any significant income for the next few years.

I agree. Depending on how long this lasts, we may see VS collapse. All other carriers have cut back on their flights to the region and are unlikely to return to pre-COVID levels any time soon. The Eastern Caribbean will be particularly affected. If demand is low, AA will demand payment for its flights. These governments don’t have the funds to be able to do that currently. Hotels aren’t going to reopen for minimal bookings. This has the effect of several hurricanes hitting at once without the post-storm increase in construction that you get with a hurricane. No one is going to come out of this well.
 
gunnerman
Posts: 1147
Joined: Fri May 19, 2017 7:55 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Fri May 01, 2020 12:01 am

baje427 wrote:
BDA,and GCM are safe on the BA front given they are overseas territories.

I don't think that being Overseas Territories matters, what does matter is how much BA and other airlines will get paid to resume and maintain flights. And there's the problem: all countries are now poorer as their economies have been brought shuddering to a halt (so they have had to turn to the World Bank and IMF for funding) which makes it hard to find the money for airline subsidies. However if they don't get the flights back the tourism industries, already knocked for six, will suffer existential damage.
 
caribny
Posts: 475
Joined: Sat Mar 16, 2019 1:47 am

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Fri May 01, 2020 3:36 am

baje427 wrote:
I dont think most people truly grasp how bad things are about to get in the Caribbean. I highly doubt any of Cal's Caribbean expansion dreams will happen furthermore we should expect a major fleet cut or possibly its demise. Most people in the source markets wont have that disposable income for a while so a Caribbean holiday will be out of the picture for most. BDA,and GCM are safe on the BA front given they are overseas territories. There is a strong possibility of no UK service to any other Caribbean island for the foreseeable future. Its also unlikely Canada will be open for international travel this year and the Covid situation in the USA means allowing flights from there would be a public health risk. Its going to take a lot of ingenuity but I think its safe to say the Caribbean will have to find a way forward without tourism because its unlikely to generate any significant income for the next few years.



Here we are worrying about which routes the major carriers will cut and which ones will even survive. Given BWs role as a business and VFR carrier you think that they will collapse? It is as strategic for POS and even GEO just as LIAT is for BGI and the OECS. T&T will put in enough cash or loan guarantees to get the level of international connectivity that they will need. They aren't going to run begging B6/AA with revenue guarantee promises. They see that as what tourist dependent islands with no airlines of their own are forced to do.

If your doomsday scenario comes true you think that B6 will fly half empty flights to POS? Of course not. In fact COPA has already announced major cuts once they restart so this will likely lead to cuts in routes to the English speaking Caribbean, even POS. So if all POS gets is a daily AA service from MIA you think that T&T will let BW collapse? No they will cut it to the bone and run a very POS/GEO oriented service. Maybe 6 jets and then sending the others back. These were due to leave the fleet anyway.

If I were BGI I would worry because decisions made about carriers to that island have nothing to do with anyone on that island. If B6 decides that all they will do in the Caribbean is to focus on PR/DR and Jamaica what happens to BGI? Those are the largest VFR markets in the NY area, and will recover fastest once the leisure market returns, assuming that Covid 19 doesnt return. Its already predicted that people will travel, but they will prefer short distance flights. BGI isnt high in the minds of US leisure passengers and its VFR market is also small.

BGI with its heavy European dependence will be hit harder than will Jamaica/DR/PR. Canada, we will see but they depend on access to international markets so cannot keep closed off when the rest of the planet reopens. Summer will be quiet assuming some reopening, but recovery should start by next year, though some will suffer. I suggest the further to the southeast an island is the fewer US travelers they will get.
 
caribny
Posts: 475
Joined: Sat Mar 16, 2019 1:47 am

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Fri May 01, 2020 3:39 am

gunnerman wrote:
baje427 wrote:
BDA,and GCM are safe on the BA front given they are overseas territories.

I don't think that being Overseas Territories matters, what does matter is how much BA and other airlines will get paid to resume and maintain flights. And there's the problem: all countries are now poorer as their economies have been brought shuddering to a halt (so they have had to turn to the World Bank and IMF for funding) which makes it hard to find the money for airline subsidies. However if they don't get the flights back the tourism industries, already knocked for six, will suffer existential damage.



Yes these carriers will hold the Caribbean by the neck and demand their pound of flesh, and this time they will really mean it. That is why GCM has retained KX. They learned their lesson when Hugo flattened that island and all the foreign carriers fled. It was KX which allowed the economy to reopen by resuming service as soon as they could. Sorry for the smaller islands with 100% dependence on foreign carriers.
 
baje427
Posts: 815
Joined: Mon Aug 01, 2011 12:42 am

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Fri May 01, 2020 5:03 am

caribny wrote:
baje427 wrote:
I dont think most people truly grasp how bad things are about to get in the Caribbean. I highly doubt any of Cal's Caribbean expansion dreams will happen furthermore we should expect a major fleet cut or possibly its demise. Most people in the source markets wont have that disposable income for a while so a Caribbean holiday will be out of the picture for most. BDA,and GCM are safe on the BA front given they are overseas territories. There is a strong possibility of no UK service to any other Caribbean island for the foreseeable future. Its also unlikely Canada will be open for international travel this year and the Covid situation in the USA means allowing flights from there would be a public health risk. Its going to take a lot of ingenuity but I think its safe to say the Caribbean will have to find a way forward without tourism because its unlikely to generate any significant income for the next few years.



Here we are worrying about which routes the major carriers will cut and which ones will even survive. Given BWs role as a business and VFR carrier you think that they will collapse? It is as strategic for POS and even GEO just as LIAT is for BGI and the OECS. T&T will put in enough cash or loan guarantees to get the level of international connectivity that they will need. They aren't going to run begging B6/AA with revenue guarantee promises. They see that as what tourist dependent islands with no airlines of their own are forced to do.

If your doomsday scenario comes true you think that B6 will fly half empty flights to POS? Of course not. In fact COPA has already announced major cuts once they restart so this will likely lead to cuts in routes to the English speaking Caribbean, even POS. So if all POS gets is a daily AA service from MIA you think that T&T will let BW collapse? No they will cut it to the bone and run a very POS/GEO oriented service. Maybe 6 jets and then sending the others back. These were due to leave the fleet anyway.

If I were BGI I would worry because decisions made about carriers to that island have nothing to do with anyone on that island. If B6 decides that all they will do in the Caribbean is to focus on PR/DR and Jamaica what happens to BGI? Those are the largest VFR markets in the NY area, and will recover fastest once the leisure market returns, assuming that Covid 19 doesnt return. Its already predicted that people will travel, but they will prefer short distance flights. BGI isnt high in the minds of US leisure passengers and its VFR market is also small.

BGI with its heavy European dependence will be hit harder than will Jamaica/DR/PR. Canada, we will see but they depend on access to international markets so cannot keep closed off when the rest of the planet reopens. Summer will be quiet assuming some reopening, but recovery should start by next year, though some will suffer. I suggest the further to the southeast an island is the fewer US travelers they will get.

I think the government in BGI have recognised things will be challenging and are already speaking to the diversification of the economy and the path forward. I suspect BGI will be able to court AA back at some point.I dont see WS,CM,VS,DE or EW returning . T&T's economy is not in great shape with the low oil prices. In the past supporting BW was fine but in a global depression maintaining an airline might not be a priority I suspect they will survive but the airline will be much smaller.
 
gunnerman
Posts: 1147
Joined: Fri May 19, 2017 7:55 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Fri May 01, 2020 6:08 pm

I think it newsworthy that in Barbados there is a cautious relaxing of the lockdown as PM Motley is only too aware of the damage which has already been caused with a doubling of unemployment within the last eight weeks. Barbados is more reliant on tourism than most Caribbean countries and needs flights to resume as soon as possible.
 
baje427
Posts: 815
Joined: Mon Aug 01, 2011 12:42 am

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Fri May 01, 2020 6:26 pm

gunnerman wrote:
I think it newsworthy that in Barbados there is a cautious relaxing of the lockdown as PM Motley is only too aware of the damage which has already been caused with a doubling of unemployment within the last eight weeks. Barbados is more reliant on tourism than most Caribbean countries and needs flights to resume as soon as possible.

There has been a relaxation of restrictions on the local economy there are no plans which have indicated flights are resuming anytime soon. Indeed, there were no announcements which spoke to tourism restarting this year.
 
windian425
Posts: 208
Joined: Sat Dec 30, 2006 9:22 am

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Fri May 01, 2020 6:52 pm

Regular commercial flights should resume in BGI from June. AA has already scheduled a daily MIA B738 from June 4th. Jetblue is also expected to restart daily JFK flights from June 11th.
 
Caymanair
Posts: 500
Joined: Mon Apr 05, 2004 4:53 am

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Fri May 01, 2020 7:19 pm

Cayman is in a very different position from all of the other Caribbean and Atlantic neighbors for a variety of reasons, not aviation related.

I think BDA and GCM will maintain service for sure, even if at a reduced rate. GCM is already served from LHR so that won't be a change. I think BGI and KIN/MBJ should be able to maintain service as well, and maybe very very limited service to another EC gateway combined with BGI. SXM and CUR will likely maintain service to AMS, and there will have to be connections between PTP/FDF and metropolitan France. HAV and perhaps SDQ will continue to support service to MAD. Outside of that, I don't know that a lot of services between the UK/EU and the Caribbean are likely to return in short order.

Service to the USA and Canada will be determined not just by the decision of two states, but also influenced by the decision of others. Even with reduced travel, if places like TCI, Cayman, and Nassau choose to keep borders closed for extended periods (Cayman has already indicated it may be closed to the United States for several more months) then there is some scope for business to go to Caribbean destinations more willing to risk it. What is true is that those places that fundamentally had strong tourism products to begin with (by which i mean consistent, high yielding, repeat visitors; visitation driven by factors other than sun sea and sand; strong infrastructure and the ability to invest in improvements to such in the near term; and the ability to project an image of safety and order) will be the least affected from a tourism airlift standpoint... but even so they will have drastically reduced service. Flights that don't require tourists to stay in the air are most insulated.

There are opportunities for KX. BW, UP and others to capture new markets in places where non-stop services are no longer viable *IF* their shareholders are willing and able to invest now. They will be relied upon to rebuild markets and keep prices in check.
 
Brickell305
Posts: 1057
Joined: Sat Jun 24, 2017 2:07 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Fri May 01, 2020 7:45 pm

Caymanair wrote:
Cayman is in a very different position from all of the other Caribbean and Atlantic neighbors for a variety of reasons, not aviation related.

I think BDA and GCM will maintain service for sure, even if at a reduced rate. GCM is already served from LHR so that won't be a change. I think BGI and KIN/MBJ should be able to maintain service as well, and maybe very very limited service to another EC gateway combined with BGI. SXM and CUR will likely maintain service to AMS, and there will have to be connections between PTP/FDF and metropolitan France. HAV and perhaps SDQ will continue to support service to MAD. Outside of that, I don't know that a lot of services between the UK/EU and the Caribbean are likely to return in short order.

Service to the USA and Canada will be determined not just by the decision of two states, but also influenced by the decision of others. Even with reduced travel, if places like TCI, Cayman, and Nassau choose to keep borders closed for extended periods (Cayman has already indicated it may be closed to the United States for several more months) then there is some scope for business to go to Caribbean destinations more willing to risk it. What is true is that those places that fundamentally had strong tourism products to begin with (by which i mean consistent, high yielding, repeat visitors; visitation driven by factors other than sun sea and sand; strong infrastructure and the ability to invest in improvements to such in the near term; and the ability to project an image of safety and order) will be the least affected from a tourism airlift standpoint... but even so they will have drastically reduced service. Flights that don't require tourists to stay in the air are most insulated.

There are opportunities for KX. BW, UP and others to capture new markets in places where non-stop services are no longer viable *IF* their shareholders are willing and able to invest now. They will be relied upon to rebuild markets and keep prices in check.

This would likely be a best case scenario. A few points:

- MBJ hasn’t had BA service in years. Any UK-MBJ service is dependent on VS surviving and even then I doubt there will be an immediate return to MBJ. I don’t see BA starting new routes in this climate.

- KX and UP are different from BW. Both KX and UP are significantly stronger in the US leisure market. BW serves one leisure market out of the US (JFK-MBJ) and I also doubt that immediately returns. BW has tried several other US leisure routes throughout its history and none have lasted. PHL-MBJ, FLL-MBJ, JFK-ANU, etc. I don’t see BW starting any new routes out of this other than the previously announced milk run to SJU and I’m sure even that is under reconsideration now. For KX and UP, who knows but I doubt it as well.

- I do see the western Caribbean rebounding before the Eastern Caribbean does, all things being equal. AA has already loaded its return flights but in the case of the Eastern Caribbean, summer isn’t exactly big for non-diaspora tourism and now that all major festivals have been canceled, that will limit diaspora traffic as well. I suspect the first few flights will be full with returning residents. After that, flights will be empty. I wonder how long AA will tolerate losses to the Caribbean before coming around with their hands out.
 
Caymanair
Posts: 500
Joined: Mon Apr 05, 2004 4:53 am

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Fri May 01, 2020 8:36 pm

.[/quote]
This would likely be a best case scenario. A few points:

- MBJ hasn’t had BA service in years. Any UK-MBJ service is dependent on VS surviving and even then I doubt there will be an immediate return to MBJ. I don’t see BA starting new routes in this climate.

- KX and UP are different from BW. Both KX and UP are significantly stronger in the US leisure market. BW serves one leisure market out of the US (JFK-MBJ) and I also doubt that immediately returns. BW has tried several other US leisure routes throughout its history and none have lasted. PHL-MBJ, FLL-MBJ, JFK-ANU, etc. I don’t see BW starting any new routes out of this other than the previously announced milk run to SJU and I’m sure even that is under reconsideration now. For KX and UP, who knows but I doubt it as well.

- I do see the western Caribbean rebounding before the Eastern Caribbean does, all things being equal. AA has already loaded its return flights but in the case of the Eastern Caribbean, summer isn’t exactly big for non-diaspora tourism and now that all major festivals have been canceled, that will limit diaspora traffic as well. I suspect the first few flights will be full with returning residents. After that, flights will be empty. I wonder how long AA will tolerate losses to the Caribbean before coming around with their hands out.[/quote]

I wasn't clear (sorry!), I meant that Jamaica (KIN/MBJ - perhaps just KIN, but potentially a triangle route) would maintain service to the UK. Not necessarily on BA. It is a market not reliant on tourists for service.

KX is definitely not strong in leisure markets, and I'd argue that BW has better access to leisure passengers than KX does. They have built a few leisure markets over the years for other airlines, but they generally are responsible for a very small amount of tourists and seem to have little appetite to compete there. The markets they serve long term are business/VFR routes. If eastern Caribbean states want to maintain service, the least costly option will be BW supported by their own marketing apparatus.
 
2travel2know2
Posts: 2962
Joined: Mon Apr 26, 2010 3:01 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Fri May 01, 2020 9:23 pm

When it comes to BW VFR traffic, IMHO, it's very likely that this Xmas/New Year season (plus Carnival and other religious holidays for POS) could see a peak demand and probably push BW to fly daily between POS and MIA/JFK/YYZ, plus fly some non-stops between JFK and BGI/GEO too. That scenario could be the same for KIN if BW is to keep its KIN-U.S. flights.
But the rest of the year, BW might see itself in a position to drastically reduce all frequencies between POS and MIA/JFK/YYZ even if there's connecting traffic from GEO and BGI.
A daring BW may study how to jump on the CCS - U.S. traffic via POS to fill seats on its North American flights, but operating in CSS will really bring some challenges BW (and T&T government) might not want to deal with just now.
On the positive side, BW (and the Trini government) already should have the figures of how big of an airline POS O/D major routes require and start from those figures to plan ahead a lean, efficient, compact BW airline operation for the next year or so.
I'm not on CM's payroll.
 
baje427
Posts: 815
Joined: Mon Aug 01, 2011 12:42 am

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Fri May 01, 2020 11:57 pm

2travel2know2 wrote:
When it comes to BW VFR traffic, IMHO, it's very likely that this Xmas/New Year season (plus Carnival and other religious holidays for POS) could see a peak demand and probably push BW to fly daily between POS and MIA/JFK/YYZ, plus fly some non-stops between JFK and BGI/GEO too. That scenario could be the same for KIN if BW is to keep its KIN-U.S. flights.
But the rest of the year, BW might see itself in a position to drastically reduce all frequencies between POS and MIA/JFK/YYZ even if there's connecting traffic from GEO and BGI.
A daring BW may study how to jump on the CCS - U.S. traffic via POS to fill seats on its North American flights, but operating in CSS will really bring some challenges BW (and T&T government) might not want to deal with just now.
On the positive side, BW (and the Trini government) already should have the figures of how big of an airline POS O/D major routes require and start from those figures to plan ahead a lean, efficient, compact BW airline operation for the next year or so.


Your'e assuming Carnival comes off BW already operated once weekly to CCS pre Covid.
 
Brickell305
Posts: 1057
Joined: Sat Jun 24, 2017 2:07 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Sat May 02, 2020 12:24 am

2travel2know2 wrote:
When it comes to BW VFR traffic, IMHO, it's very likely that this Xmas/New Year season (plus Carnival and other religious holidays for POS) could see a peak demand and probably push BW to fly daily between POS and MIA/JFK/YYZ, plus fly some non-stops between JFK and BGI/GEO too. That scenario could be the same for KIN if BW is to keep its KIN-U.S. flights.
But the rest of the year, BW might see itself in a position to drastically reduce all frequencies between POS and MIA/JFK/YYZ even if there's connecting traffic from GEO and BGI.
A daring BW may study how to jump on the CCS - U.S. traffic via POS to fill seats on its North American flights, but operating in CSS will really bring some challenges BW (and T&T government) might not want to deal with just now.
On the positive side, BW (and the Trini government) already should have the figures of how big of an airline POS O/D major routes require and start from those figures to plan ahead a lean, efficient, compact BW airline operation for the next year or so.

1. If carnival occurs in 2021, and that’s a big if, it’ll be a shell of what it’s been in recent years. Travel will be nothing like it has been in recent times.

2. Re BGI, if traffic recovers, the American/Canadian carriers will be back. If traffic is low, they’ll stay out or reduce service and any attempt by BW to enter will be BW flying empty planes. Once traffic recovers, the American/Canadian carriers will be back and they have structural advantages over BW in BGI.

3. CCS isn’t happening. Pre-COVID, BW maintained a once weekly on the ATR just so that it technically wasn’t dropped. I’d be surprised if even that once weekly returns.

Post-COVID will be a time of recovery and survival for BW, not expansion. The airline has had essentially nil revenue for about 2 months now. Traffic isn’t going to come roaring back right away. They’ll be dependent on government assistance to survive and it’ll be difficult for the government to provide sustained assistance as gov’t revenue is in the doldrums now and there will be several sectors and citizens requesting assistance. Government will be stretched extremely thin. The one caveat is BW will need to fly all those new ATRs they’ll be receiving somewhere. Regional flying is already a difficult environment. I foresee it being a major drag on a BW with 9 ATRs in this environment. The GORTT better have a bunch of lenders lined up.
 
caribny
Posts: 475
Joined: Sat Mar 16, 2019 1:47 am

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Sat May 02, 2020 3:54 am

baje427 wrote:
I think the government in BGI have recognised things will be challenging and are already speaking to the diversification of the economy and the path forward. I suspect BGI will be able to court AA back at some point.I dont see WS,CM,VS,DE or EW returning . T&T's economy is not in great shape with the low oil prices. In the past supporting BW was fine but in a global depression maintaining an airline might not be a priority I suspect they will survive but the airline will be much smaller.





BW will survive. Will it be in the same form? No. Will their Caribbean expansion be canned? Yes. I expect PM Rowley to tell PM Holness that unless Jamaica puts $$ into BW its out, except for flights on its lucrative KIN Eastern Caribbean routes. Holness will say "fine we dont need you any way".

Jamaica will be one of the few islands that will see its tourism bounce back to reasonable levels, as its a very strong brand. They are still marketing in their usual innovative way. Jamaica is dangling their beauty to people suffering from cabin fever, and announcing that their tourism partners will be trained to compete in the new world of innovative social distance. And its a quick 2-4 hour flight from their main US source markets. The more Euro dependent islands will suffer most.

6 738s with flights to MIA, JFK, YYZ (if open) and maybe FLL, plus their CARICOM routes. CUR might have to go, GCM will go, HAV might stay as Cubans have to fly to GEO, to do their shopping and pick up their US visas. More Cubans will travel to offset losses in their tourism sector. COPA has announced that they will go back to their core, which doesnt include the English speaking Caribbean.

IF BGI fears what foreign carriers will do, POS, much lower on the radar for these airlines, has even more reason to be concerned. It might well be back to the days of a quasi monopoly that BWIA had in the POS/GEO markets.

KX is an example of why having one's own carrier isnt a bad thing. Because if the foreign carriers sharply reduce their GCM service, as they did after Hugo, KX can fill the gap. If a government has to spend money to ensure access it isnt about supporting an airline. Its about economic development as small societies cannot be isolated. No one will want to hear the words "MRG" or "market support dollars".
 
caribny
Posts: 475
Joined: Sat Mar 16, 2019 1:47 am

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Sat May 02, 2020 4:09 am

Brickell305 wrote:
2travel2know2 wrote:
When it comes to BW VFR traffic, IMHO, it's very likely that this Xmas/New Year season (plus Carnival and other religious holidays for POS) could see a peak demand and probably push BW to fly daily between POS and MIA/JFK/YYZ, plus fly some non-stops between JFK and BGI/GEO too. That scenario could be the same for KIN if BW is to keep its KIN-U.S. flights.
But the rest of the year, BW might see itself in a position to drastically reduce all frequencies between POS and MIA/JFK/YYZ even if there's connecting traffic from GEO and BGI.
A daring BW may study how to jump on the CCS - U.S. traffic via POS to fill seats on its North American flights, but operating in CSS will really bring some challenges BW (and T&T government) might not want to deal with just now.
On the positive side, BW (and the Trini government) already should have the figures of how big of an airline POS O/D major routes require and start from those figures to plan ahead a lean, efficient, compact BW airline operation for the next year or so.

1. If carnival occurs in 2021, and that’s a big if, it’ll be a shell of what it’s been in recent years. Travel will be nothing like it has been in recent times.

2. Re BGI, if traffic recovers, the American/Canadian carriers will be back. If traffic is low, they’ll stay out or reduce service and any attempt by BW to enter will be BW flying empty planes. Once traffic recovers, the American/Canadian carriers will be back and they have structural advantages over BW in BGI.

3. CCS isn’t happening. Pre-COVID, BW maintained a once weekly on the ATR just so that it technically wasn’t dropped. I’d be surprised if even that once weekly returns.

Post-COVID will be a time of recovery and survival for BW, not expansion. The airline has had essentially nil revenue for about 2 months now. Traffic isn’t going to come roaring back right away. They’ll be dependent on government assistance to survive and it’ll be difficult for the government to provide sustained assistance as gov’t revenue is in the doldrums now and there will be several sectors and citizens requesting assistance. Government will be stretched extremely thin. The one caveat is BW will need to fly all those new ATRs they’ll be receiving somewhere. Regional flying is already a difficult environment. I foresee it being a major drag on a BW with 9 ATRs in this environment. The GORTT better have a bunch of lenders lined up.



BW isnt going to run any nonregional except to POS/GEO unless they get paid to do so. No risky routes for them. TAB being the only exception. BW will have to park those excess ATRs. I heard that they own them so no leasing expenses. This may well be the beginning of discussions with LIAT. Even though T&T has a economic problem it still remains stronger than BGI/OECS. LI has a problem with its leasing expenses, and likely will be forced to reduce fleets. This is no longer a matter of social routes, as almost all have been eliminated. A big issue with LI is much of their market is events based and there aren't going to be many until at least 2021.

CCS will return on the same basis as T&T wants to retain relationships with Maduro. Another economic development "cost".
 
LimaFoxTango
Posts: 978
Joined: Wed Jun 16, 2004 11:33 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Sat May 02, 2020 4:24 am

caribny wrote:
Brickell305 wrote:
2travel2know2 wrote:
When it comes to BW VFR traffic, IMHO, it's very likely that this Xmas/New Year season (plus Carnival and other religious holidays for POS) could see a peak demand and probably push BW to fly daily between POS and MIA/JFK/YYZ, plus fly some non-stops between JFK and BGI/GEO too. That scenario could be the same for KIN if BW is to keep its KIN-U.S. flights.
But the rest of the year, BW might see itself in a position to drastically reduce all frequencies between POS and MIA/JFK/YYZ even if there's connecting traffic from GEO and BGI.
A daring BW may study how to jump on the CCS - U.S. traffic via POS to fill seats on its North American flights, but operating in CSS will really bring some challenges BW (and T&T government) might not want to deal with just now.
On the positive side, BW (and the Trini government) already should have the figures of how big of an airline POS O/D major routes require and start from those figures to plan ahead a lean, efficient, compact BW airline operation for the next year or so.

1. If carnival occurs in 2021, and that’s a big if, it’ll be a shell of what it’s been in recent years. Travel will be nothing like it has been in recent times.

2. Re BGI, if traffic recovers, the American/Canadian carriers will be back. If traffic is low, they’ll stay out or reduce service and any attempt by BW to enter will be BW flying empty planes. Once traffic recovers, the American/Canadian carriers will be back and they have structural advantages over BW in BGI.

3. CCS isn’t happening. Pre-COVID, BW maintained a once weekly on the ATR just so that it technically wasn’t dropped. I’d be surprised if even that once weekly returns.

Post-COVID will be a time of recovery and survival for BW, not expansion. The airline has had essentially nil revenue for about 2 months now. Traffic isn’t going to come roaring back right away. They’ll be dependent on government assistance to survive and it’ll be difficult for the government to provide sustained assistance as gov’t revenue is in the doldrums now and there will be several sectors and citizens requesting assistance. Government will be stretched extremely thin. The one caveat is BW will need to fly all those new ATRs they’ll be receiving somewhere. Regional flying is already a difficult environment. I foresee it being a major drag on a BW with 9 ATRs in this environment. The GORTT better have a bunch of lenders lined up.



BW isnt going to run any nonregional except to POS/GEO unless they get paid to do so. No risky routes for them. TAB being the only exception. BW will have to park those excess ATRs. I heard that they own them so no leasing expenses. This may well be the beginning of discussions with LIAT. Even though T&T has a economic problem it still remains stronger than BGI/OECS. LI has a problem with its leasing expenses, and likely will be forced to reduce fleets. This is no longer a matter of social routes, as almost all have been eliminated. A big issue with LI is much of their market is events based and there aren't going to be many until at least 2021.

CCS will return on the same basis as T&T wants to retain relationships with Maduro. Another economic development "cost".


There will be no discussions with LI. If LI somehow dies after this, BW will simply take up whatever slack they can. There won't be any merger of the two in any way shape or form.
You are said to be a good pilot when your take-off's equal your landings.
 
2travel2know2
Posts: 2962
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Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Sat May 02, 2020 4:34 am

caribny wrote:
COPA has announced that they will go back to their core, which doesn't include the English speaking Caribbean..
On its press-releases, CM informs that in the non-Spanish speaking Caribbean, PAP, SXM, KIN, POS, GEO, AUA and CUR will return with 2 to 4 flights per week (subject to local government approval).
No info on when CM is to return to BGI, MBJ, PBM and BZE.
I'm not on CM's payroll.
 
caribny
Posts: 475
Joined: Sat Mar 16, 2019 1:47 am

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Sat May 02, 2020 6:31 am

LimaFoxTango wrote:
There will be no discussions with LI. If LI somehow dies after this, BW will simply take up whatever slack they can. There won't be any merger of the two in any way shape or form.



Didn't say merger because BGI/OECS dont have a slightest chance in getting T&T to take on the LI headache. This is more about route consolidation. LI cannot afford the size of fleet that they have now. Clearly BW will have too many ATRs given that their Caribbean expansion will grind to a halt.

Maybe LI leaving the POS operations to BW, maybe on a code share basis, allowing them to dump 2 of the ATR 76 planes, which are clearly too big for most of LI's routes. No way that BGI/OECS will have the ability to help out LI in the way that T&T can assist BW. The latter has vastly more access to the capital markets (including domestic) if need be.

Reality is that neither airline will survive running empty planes and BW dominates the POS origin market. Also the T&T origin market mightn't be as financially strapped as some might think as after all two groups of Trinis went on cruises in the winter season and brought back the disease with them. T&T economy has been softening for quite a while now. Maybe those folks might try BGI, GND and SLU as they mightn't want to risk travel to Covid19 prone USA.
Last edited by caribny on Sat May 02, 2020 6:44 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
caribny
Posts: 475
Joined: Sat Mar 16, 2019 1:47 am

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Sat May 02, 2020 6:39 am

2travel2know2 wrote:
caribny wrote:
COPA has announced that they will go back to their core, which doesn't include the English speaking Caribbean..
On its press-releases, CM informs that in the non-Spanish speaking Caribbean, PAP, SXM, KIN, POS, GEO, AUA and CUR will return with 2 to 4 flights per week (subject to local government approval).
No info on when CM is to return to BGI, MBJ, PBM and BZE.



Which means that if HAV POS/GEO markets remain at near existing levels then CM will not be providing sufficient capacity. CMs GEO service is daily with high loads. Interestingly as Cuba's economy softens more Cubans will gravitate to the informal sector, which will involve traveling to GEO to shop for items for resale in Cuba. Not sure about US visa issuance to Cubans, which is done in GEO, another reason for this heavy travel.

FYI HAV is the 2nd largest route into GEO behind JFK. Air Aruba used a plane chartered from an airline which has gone belly up so they have scaled back their service from Cuba to GEO. So if CM also scales back this leave room for BW, even if the overall market drops off.

BW mightn't do badly with all of this. AA will likely not resume JFK GEO and who knows if B6 will start service on that route later this year.
 
trintocan
Posts: 2788
Joined: Sun Apr 23, 2000 6:02 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Sat May 02, 2020 9:59 am

Well well, this is truly an epoch-defining moment. The Coronavirus pandemic has had enormous effects far and wide and with a speed and scale unprecedented in recent times. Aviation globally has been brought to its knees and the Caribbean has not been spared. I was actually affected directly as I flew to POS in early March for a 2-week vacation but had to cut short and return to the UK after 6 days as lockdowns loomed. Put mildly it was a rather stressful affair at that time. There is however a larger picture which I will turn to.

In looking at the UK market, many will know that BA have announced huge job losses (around a fifth of their pilots) and the possibility that LGW may never reopen as a base for them. As almost all of BA's Caribbean routes operate from LGW this is a concerning development as LHR slots come at a premium and BA would effectively have to shrink massively overall to fit all of their operations at LHR. I will here discuss the possible outlooks for BA's Caribbean destinations. Please note that I am not forgetting about BW or LI but instead adding a dimension which I am perhaps more familiar with at present.

BDA will be safe as it is a British Overseas Territory and a very wealthy one at that. The premium-heavy route there would easily work from LHR. In fact it is the only Caribbean route currently running on BA, going from LHR with a tag-on to GCM. GCM is safe for the same reasons. The issue here is whether BA would keep this routing long-term and if they do then NAS could be at risk. NAS flew from LHR largely because the 767s which previously served the route were based there - the route remained there on 777s after the Sixes went to sleep. NAS is a leisure heavy route with cruises and stayover tourism dominating along with a bit of VFR. This route is likely to take a long time to be resumed and OneWorld connections may well be explored for it.

KIN will likely return in due course owing to the VFR dominance. In fact, operating KIN out of LHR may well be advantageous as it is one of the few Caribbean destinations which could benefit from wider global connectivity. PUJ's prospects appear rather distant as tourism is likely to be in the doldrums for a long time. With no VFR involved any recovery of that link will likely be led by TUI with their Dreamliners. PLS is in a tricky position - it is also a BOT but has been served just once a week. It will likely return but again the issue of how it is tagged will arise. It could end up being that the Western Caribbean tags are arranged via BDA (or NAS if they resume it) and PLS will be routed that way instead of ANU.

To look at the Eastern Caribbean, the routings and tags would certainly be looked at. ANU and UVF, where tag-on flights are routed through, would not support the same levels of service without the tags but a drop in overall demand is likely to warrant reduced flight levels and loss of some tags. I anticipate that both will stay on as destinations. UVF may well be one of the faster islands to recover as it is a honeymooners' favourite and, post lockdown once things are safe, you will see a surge in postponed weddings going ahead! BGI will be safe as the extremely moneyed set who fly there would resume doing so as soon as they can. BGI, like KIN, may also be strengthened by having greater connectivity at LHR. POS will also benefit from this connectivity - with its industrial base (notwithstanding the low oil prices right now) POS will actually benefit most among Caribbean destinations from being at LHR. One wonders whether BA would consider tagging POS onto BGI instead of UVF as together they could sustain an at-least near-daily frequency and there is a sizeable 5th freedom market between them. Let's not forget that POS is also a sizeable air cargo origin and destination.

Unfortunately the prospects for GND, SKB and TAB appear bleak. If the airline were to consider resuming service to them the issue of revenue guarantees is likely to arise. The Governments of all three are short of funds so they will not be forthcoming. The IMF / World Bank would not sanction paying such guarantees by any country which turned to them for assistance. TAB is included here because POS already has BW to support (among other matters) and it appears a longshot for them to support BA.

In the fullness of time we will see how things play out.

Trintocan.
Hop to it, fly for life!
 
trintocan
Posts: 2788
Joined: Sun Apr 23, 2000 6:02 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Sat May 02, 2020 10:35 am

To turn to BW and LI, whither do they go from here? BW will survive if, for nothing else, the umbilical link between POS and TAB. The Airbridge would not be allowed to become dormant. Beyond that, BW's route expansion is likely to be put on ice for now. I see their priorities, once markets start to slowly open up again, as being the routes to GEO, BGI and KIN and, further afield, to MIA, JFK and YYZ. They will prioritise MIA over FLL out of POS due to greater historical links and the business market. Other destinations will return more slowly though I doubt they will cut any altogether. If any do go, those would be newer routes like GCM or CUR or a purely leisure route like MCO. Their KIN network is more at risk and the Jamaican Government will likely be asked to provide financial assistance to maintain it. CCS is, in British speak, a Parliamentary Route and will resume once able.

LI will be in a harder position as their shareholders are financially worse off. POS will not be keen to invest in them as they already have BW to contend with. The LI network of 15 islands is the smallest it has been for a long time following progressive cuts over the last decade. This then leads to the irony that they are perhaps more dependent on the POS market than ever before, as it is larger and more likely to recover faster than the others. In flying there, of course, they then have to face up to BW competition... LI would be best served by focusing on key links among ANU, BGI, DOM, SVD and SLU plus BGI-OGL and ANU-SXM. Where POS is concerned the issue of a codeshare tie-up with BW should not be discounted and may need serious consideration. Regional politics may end up in the way though. Put succinctly, POS does not want to spend money subsidising routes "up-islands" and BGI / ANU et al do not want to end up effectively subsidising the Airbridge.

Trintocan.
Hop to it, fly for life!
 
ryby92
Posts: 39
Joined: Sun Dec 08, 2019 7:34 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Sat May 02, 2020 11:20 am

trintocan wrote:
Well well, this is truly an epoch-defining moment. The Coronavirus pandemic has had enormous effects far and wide and with a speed and scale unprecedented in recent times. Aviation globally has been brought to its knees and the Caribbean has not been spared. I was actually affected directly as I flew to POS in early March for a 2-week vacation but had to cut short and return to the UK after 6 days as lockdowns loomed. Put mildly it was a rather stressful affair at that time. There is however a larger picture which I will turn to.

In looking at the UK market, many will know that BA have announced huge job losses (around a fifth of their pilots) and the possibility that LGW may never reopen as a base for them. As almost all of BA's Caribbean routes operate from LGW this is a concerning development as LHR slots come at a premium and BA would effectively have to shrink massively overall to fit all of their operations at LHR. I will here discuss the possible outlooks for BA's Caribbean destinations. Please note that I am not forgetting about BW or LI but instead adding a dimension which I am perhaps more familiar with at present.

BDA will be safe as it is a British Overseas Territory and a very wealthy one at that. The premium-heavy route there would easily work from LHR. In fact it is the only Caribbean route currently running on BA, going from LHR with a tag-on to GCM. GCM is safe for the same reasons. The issue here is whether BA would keep this routing long-term and if they do then NAS could be at risk. NAS flew from LHR largely because the 767s which previously served the route were based there - the route remained there on 777s after the Sixes went to sleep. NAS is a leisure heavy route with cruises and stayover tourism dominating along with a bit of VFR. This route is likely to take a long time to be resumed and OneWorld connections may well be explored for it.

KIN will likely return in due course owing to the VFR dominance. In fact, operating KIN out of LHR may well be advantageous as it is one of the few Caribbean destinations which could benefit from wider global connectivity. PUJ's prospects appear rather distant as tourism is likely to be in the doldrums for a long time. With no VFR involved any recovery of that link will likely be led by TUI with their Dreamliners. PLS is in a tricky position - it is also a BOT but has been served just once a week. It will likely return but again the issue of how it is tagged will arise. It could end up being that the Western Caribbean tags are arranged via BDA (or NAS if they resume it) and PLS will be routed that way instead of ANU.

To look at the Eastern Caribbean, the routings and tags would certainly be looked at. ANU and UVF, where tag-on flights are routed through, would not support the same levels of service without the tags but a drop in overall demand is likely to warrant reduced flight levels and loss of some tags. I anticipate that both will stay on as destinations. UVF may well be one of the faster islands to recover as it is a honeymooners' favourite and, post lockdown once things are safe, you will see a surge in postponed weddings going ahead! BGI will be safe as the extremely moneyed set who fly there would resume doing so as soon as they can. BGI, like KIN, may also be strengthened by having greater connectivity at LHR. POS will also benefit from this connectivity - with its industrial base (notwithstanding the low oil prices right now) POS will actually benefit most among Caribbean destinations from being at LHR. One wonders whether BA would consider tagging POS onto BGI instead of UVF as together they could sustain an at-least near-daily frequency and there is a sizeable 5th freedom market between them. Let's not forget that POS is also a sizeable air cargo origin and destination.

Unfortunately the prospects for GND, SKB and TAB appear bleak. If the airline were to consider resuming service to them the issue of revenue guarantees is likely to arise. The Governments of all three are short of funds so they will not be forthcoming. The IMF / World Bank would not sanction paying such guarantees by any country which turned to them for assistance. TAB is included here because POS already has BW to support (among other matters) and it appears a longshot for them to support BA.

In the fullness of time we will see how things play out.

Trintocan.


Why would you tag POS to BGI? BGI commands the most traffic overall and most premium traffic out of all of BA's flights. Only destination in the entire Caribbean that has sustained 2 X Daily DEDICATED 777 in winter months. Are you implying that UVF commands more traffic than BGI? Really? UVF has been tagged to POS just to barely reach 1x Daily in the peak of winter. Go figure. FYI BGI has had the highest number of UK visitors of all Caribbean destinations historically, even more than Jamaica and was during Concorde days the only destination outside JFK and IAD to have regularly scheduled Concorde flights.
 
tphuang
Posts: 5356
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Sat May 02, 2020 1:39 pm

caribny wrote:
BW mightn't do badly with all of this. AA will likely not resume JFK GEO and who knows if B6 will start service on that route later this year.

Here is the key when trying to figure out which routes will come back for B6. Any route that's low O&D and VFR out of FLL are not coming back. Any mostly VFR route out of JFK will come back and leisure stuff will be significantly reduced for a while. JFK-GEO had really good loads compared to other routes before they moved it to November. I would be surprised if it doesn't start before holiday season.
 
gunnerman
Posts: 1147
Joined: Fri May 19, 2017 7:55 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Sat May 02, 2020 2:33 pm

trintocan wrote:
NAS flew from LHR largely because the 767s which previously served the route were based there - the route remained there on 777s after the Sixes went to sleep.

BA used to fly LGW-GCM-NAS-LGW in the 1990s with a DC-10-30 each week. Subsequently the 763 (with a first class cabin IIRC) replaced the D10 and the routing changed from circular to stops in NAS in both directions with added frequency. BA then removed all wide-bodies from LGW to LHR unless they were GE90-powered 772s, so that's how NAS and GCM (and PLS at the time) came to be served from LHR. BA later upgraded the 763 to the 772 where it remains. FWIW BA has scheduled a resumption of LHR-NAS-GCM on 1 June but schedules these days can mean little.
 
Ryga
Posts: 91
Joined: Mon Mar 07, 2016 11:26 am

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Sat May 02, 2020 2:45 pm

Duplicate sorry
Last edited by Ryga on Sat May 02, 2020 2:57 pm, edited 1 time in total.
AA AM BA BM BY DP DY EK MH PG RJ TK U2 VS Y2 ZB Z2 5J 9W

738 752 762ER/3ER 77W 788/9
A319/20/21 A332/3
E190
ATR 72-600
Jetstream 32
CRJ200ER
 
Ryga
Posts: 91
Joined: Mon Mar 07, 2016 11:26 am

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Sat May 02, 2020 2:45 pm

Duplicate sorry
Last edited by Ryga on Sat May 02, 2020 2:56 pm, edited 1 time in total.
AA AM BA BM BY DP DY EK MH PG RJ TK U2 VS Y2 ZB Z2 5J 9W

738 752 762ER/3ER 77W 788/9
A319/20/21 A332/3
E190
ATR 72-600
Jetstream 32
CRJ200ER
 
Ryga
Posts: 91
Joined: Mon Mar 07, 2016 11:26 am

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Sat May 02, 2020 2:47 pm

Ryga wrote:
Ryga wrote:
Caymanair wrote:
.

This would likely be a best case scenario. A few points:

- MBJ hasn’t had BA service in years. Any UK-MBJ service is dependent on VS surviving and even then I doubt there will be an immediate return to MBJ. I don’t see BA starting new routes in this climate.

- KX and UP are different from BW. Both KX and UP are significantly stronger in the US leisure market. BW serves one leisure market out of the US (JFK-MBJ) and I also doubt that immediately returns. BW has tried several other US leisure routes throughout its history and none have lasted. PHL-MBJ, FLL-MBJ, JFK-ANU, etc. I don’t see BW starting any new routes out of this other than the previously announced milk run to SJU and I’m sure even that is under reconsideration now. For KX and UP, who knows but I doubt it as well.

- I do see the western Caribbean rebounding before the Eastern Caribbean does, all things being equal. AA has already loaded its return flights but in the case of the Eastern Caribbean, summer isn’t exactly big for non-diaspora tourism and now that all major festivals have been canceled, that will limit diaspora traffic as well. I suspect the first few flights will be full with returning residents. After that, flights will be empty. I wonder how long AA will tolerate losses to the Caribbean before coming around with their hands out.


I wasn't clear (sorry!), I meant that Jamaica (KIN/MBJ - perhaps just KIN, but potentially a triangle route) would maintain service to the UK. Not necessarily on BA. It is a market not reliant on tourists for service.

KX is definitely not strong in leisure markets, and I'd argue that BW has better access to leisure passengers than KX does. They have built a few leisure markets over the years for other airlines, but they generally are responsible for a very small amount of tourists and seem to have little appetite to compete there. The markets they serve long term are business/VFR routes. If eastern Caribbean states want to maintain service, the least costly option will be BW supported by their own marketing apparatus.


Also important to note that TUI serve MBJ more frequently than VS currently, and will continue to do so.
AA AM BA BM BY DP DY EK MH PG RJ TK U2 VS Y2 ZB Z2 5J 9W

738 752 762ER/3ER 77W 788/9
A319/20/21 A332/3
E190
ATR 72-600
Jetstream 32
CRJ200ER
 
Ryga
Posts: 91
Joined: Mon Mar 07, 2016 11:26 am

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Sat May 02, 2020 2:48 pm

Duplicate
AA AM BA BM BY DP DY EK MH PG RJ TK U2 VS Y2 ZB Z2 5J 9W

738 752 762ER/3ER 77W 788/9
A319/20/21 A332/3
E190
ATR 72-600
Jetstream 32
CRJ200ER
 
Ryga
Posts: 91
Joined: Mon Mar 07, 2016 11:26 am

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Sat May 02, 2020 2:49 pm

Duplicate
AA AM BA BM BY DP DY EK MH PG RJ TK U2 VS Y2 ZB Z2 5J 9W

738 752 762ER/3ER 77W 788/9
A319/20/21 A332/3
E190
ATR 72-600
Jetstream 32
CRJ200ER
 
Ryga
Posts: 91
Joined: Mon Mar 07, 2016 11:26 am

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Sat May 02, 2020 2:49 pm

Duplicate, sorry
AA AM BA BM BY DP DY EK MH PG RJ TK U2 VS Y2 ZB Z2 5J 9W

738 752 762ER/3ER 77W 788/9
A319/20/21 A332/3
E190
ATR 72-600
Jetstream 32
CRJ200ER
 
trintocan
Posts: 2788
Joined: Sun Apr 23, 2000 6:02 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Sat May 02, 2020 5:00 pm

Ryby92, the reason I suggested that BA may consider joining POS and BGI on flights was a consideration of the downturn in the market and the strong possibility that recovery may be slow. BGI and POS are likely to recover faster than the other islands and both markets rely on high frequencies to the UK (BGI daily increasing to 10 weekly in winter and POS 5 weekly year-round). As such, in a context of otherwise slow market recovery, it may make sense to join them at least initially. If UVF does not recover as quickly it would seem a bit redundant to fly through there at high frequency just to give POS service. BA of course have more information on these matters than any of us and so they may well conclude differently.

Thank you Gunnerman for filling me in.

Trintocan.
Hop to it, fly for life!
 
Brickell305
Posts: 1057
Joined: Sat Jun 24, 2017 2:07 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Sat May 02, 2020 6:59 pm

trintocan wrote:
Ryby92, the reason I suggested that BA may consider joining POS and BGI on flights was a consideration of the downturn in the market and the strong possibility that recovery may be slow. BGI and POS are likely to recover faster than the other islands and both markets rely on high frequencies to the UK (BGI daily increasing to 10 weekly in winter and POS 5 weekly year-round). As such, in a context of otherwise slow market recovery, it may make sense to join them at least initially. If UVF does not recover as quickly it would seem a bit redundant to fly through there at high frequency just to give POS service. BA of course have more information on these matters than any of us and so they may well conclude differently.

Thank you Gunnerman for filling me in.

Trintocan.

I’m fairly certain that BGI can hold its own from the UK. It will likely just get reduced in frequency instead of having a tag added. BGI was the only Eastern Caribbean island with LHR service of any kind prior to this starting.

Re POS, Trinidad is by no means a large market from the UK. At all.

https://www.caa.co.uk/uploadedFiles/CAA ... alysis.pdf

Looking at 2019 data, both the UK-ANU and UK-UVF are about three times the size of the UK-POS (and twice the size of UK-KIN for that matter) market. A POS flight would not exist if there were not a larger market to tag it on to. If there is a downturn in UK-POS traffic as there likely will be, I could easily see BA dropping it.

And for what it’s worth, UK-BGI is over ten times the size of UK-POS. Even post-COVID, the BGI market is likely to be bigger than the POS market was pre-COVID.
 
baje427
Posts: 815
Joined: Mon Aug 01, 2011 12:42 am

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Sat May 02, 2020 7:16 pm

I dont see CM returning to BGI, re BA its more likely UVF will be a tag from BGI initially. I dont see demand being strong enough to support direct BGI flights. AA has options as the E175 can make most destinations in the Caribbean out of Miami.
 
caribny
Posts: 475
Joined: Sat Mar 16, 2019 1:47 am

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Sun May 03, 2020 7:09 am

tphuang wrote:
caribny wrote:
BW mightn't do badly with all of this. AA will likely not resume JFK GEO and who knows if B6 will start service on that route later this year.

Here is the key when trying to figure out which routes will come back for B6. Any route that's low O&D and VFR out of FLL are not coming back. Any mostly VFR route out of JFK will come back and leisure stuff will be significantly reduced for a while. JFK-GEO had really good loads compared to other routes before they moved it to November. I would be surprised if it doesn't start before holiday season.





If Covid levels are still high in the NY area no one in the Caribbean is going to be too eager to see their NY relatives. You ought to know that Covid has hit the Caribbean community hard because many work in the healthcare sector and live in multigenerational households. Xmas is a very festive time in Guyana, so if its not that festive this year many will take a pass on it. So Xmas bookings mightn't be at normal levels.

And please dont cite data that the numbers are coming down. Every day I speak to someone and hear about someone who knows someone who either died or was hospitalized. And then there are those who have seen their income levels plummet because the economy has halted, tenants not paying their rents, or other economic dislocations. So we dont know what is going to happen. Guyanese are not integrated into GEO the way that Dominicans are to the DR, so trips home are more discretionary.

So what carriers will do will be based on what market levels are. B6 isnt going to get into a fist fight with AA if the latter decides to reactivate its JFK route in a smaller market, just to protects its share. If its just BW AA will continue to get feed thru MIA.
Last edited by caribny on Sun May 03, 2020 7:28 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
caribny
Posts: 475
Joined: Sat Mar 16, 2019 1:47 am

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Sun May 03, 2020 7:13 am

Brickell305 wrote:
trintocan wrote:
Ryby92, the reason I suggested that BA may consider joining POS and BGI on flights was a consideration of the downturn in the market and the strong possibility that recovery may be slow. BGI and POS are likely to recover faster than the other islands and both markets rely on high frequencies to the UK (BGI daily increasing to 10 weekly in winter and POS 5 weekly year-round). As such, in a context of otherwise slow market recovery, it may make sense to join them at least initially. If UVF does not recover as quickly it would seem a bit redundant to fly through there at high frequency just to give POS service. BA of course have more information on these matters than any of us and so they may well conclude differently.

Thank you Gunnerman for filling me in.

Trintocan.

I’m fairly certain that BGI can hold its own from the UK. It will likely just get reduced in frequency instead of having a tag added. BGI was the only Eastern Caribbean island with LHR service of any kind prior to this starting.

Re POS, Trinidad is by no means a large market from the UK. At all.

https://www.caa.co.uk/uploadedFiles/CAA ... alysis.pdf

Looking at 2019 data, both the UK-ANU and UK-UVF are about three times the size of the UK-POS (and twice the size of UK-KIN for that matter) market. A POS flight would not exist if there were not a larger market to tag it on to. If there is a downturn in UK-POS traffic as there likely will be, I could easily see BA dropping it.

And for what it’s worth, UK-BGI is over ten times the size of UK-POS. Even post-COVID, the BGI market is likely to be bigger than the POS market was pre-COVID.



POS isnt large but its high yield otherwise BA wouldn't have been running the premium heavy 777 on its route, because clearly UVF isnt more premium than ANU is.
 
gunnerman
Posts: 1147
Joined: Fri May 19, 2017 7:55 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Sun May 03, 2020 3:58 pm

I'm not inclined to believe that this is correct. Trinidad arriving traffic is different to most of the Caribbean with a lot being VFR and business. There were about 66,700 arrivals at POS from LGW last year of which about 26% would have been VFR and 19% business (based on overall arrival statistics), neither being the type of passengers who travel first class. It's the well-heeled leisure passengers who have the money to do so, and the fact that St Lucia has three Sandals resorts whilst Antigua has one may suggest that it's the rich St Lucia traffic which made BA put 772s with First class cabins on the route.
 
2travel2know2
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Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Sun May 03, 2020 4:44 pm

baje427 wrote:
I don't see CM returning to BGI...
Being optimistic, earliest late 2022.
I'm not on CM's payroll.
 
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817Dreamliiner
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Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Sun May 03, 2020 9:04 pm

gunnerman wrote:
It's the well-heeled leisure passengers who have the money to do so, and the fact that St Lucia has three Sandals resorts whilst Antigua has one may suggest that it's the rich St Lucia traffic which made BA put 772s with First class cabins on the route.

Funnily enough though, BA sent more 4 class 777s to ANU than they did to UVF recently before all the lockdowns happened. Flew on 2 of them myself.
I'll wake from the dream, To keep and relive, Now life it is a dream, And dream's on a... BREAK!
 
embraer175e2
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Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Mon May 04, 2020 5:31 pm

Is British Air ways the only company providing service from UK to Trinidad?
 
baje427
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Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Mon May 04, 2020 5:42 pm

embraer175e2 wrote:
Is British Air ways the only company providing service from UK to Trinidad?

Yes it is.
 
embraer175e2
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Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Mon May 04, 2020 5:46 pm

baje427 wrote:
embraer175e2 wrote:
Is British Air ways the only company providing service from UK to Trinidad?

Yes it is.

Why? What about the other transatlantic operators in England?
 
gunnerman
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Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Mon May 04, 2020 7:06 pm

Apart from BA, VS and TUI, all have gone bust and VS is in dire straits.
 
windian425
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Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Mon May 04, 2020 7:31 pm

British Airways will not be returning to any of the Caribbean islands until 1st July, 2020. All services are cancelled until then.
With VS hanging on a thread, don't expect to see them operating until the Winter 2020/21 season.
 
caribny
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Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Mon May 04, 2020 8:44 pm

gunnerman wrote:
I'm not inclined to believe that this is correct. Trinidad arriving traffic is different to most of the Caribbean with a lot being VFR and business. There were about 66,700 arrivals at POS from LGW last year of which about 26% would have been VFR and 19% business (based on overall arrival statistics), neither being the type of passengers who travel first class. It's the well-heeled leisure passengers who have the money to do so, and the fact that St Lucia has three Sandals resorts whilst Antigua has one may suggest that it's the rich St Lucia traffic which made BA put 772s with First class cabins on the route.



Why does ANU not get the premium 777s then? Its a more upscale destination, and has been for a long time. Its only in the last decade or so that SLU has begun to add the well heeled crowd and they go to resorts like Jade, NOT Sandals. Sandals is a mass market resort, aimed directly to the middle class, who want a quality resort. Its NOT a premium brand in the USA, so I dont see why it would be in the UK. When I searched for 5 stars in SLU Sandals didn't pop up despite their large numbers of properties. If Sandals was a strong brand in the UK they would have set up shop long ago in BGI. Their customer base is more US oriented.

The only variable I see between the two is ANU has tag on flights to TAB, SKB, and PLS, all non premium leisure with SKB also getting VFR. And POS has its 20% business arrival component (your data), and these are most likely corporates. Does either ANU or SLU attract corporate business? Remember that even on the premium 777 the vast majority of the seats are nonpremium. I also suspect that your numbers include TAB as there is no way that POS has a majority leisure component. People flying from LGW to POS often travel via TAB to get lower fares so I doubt that there are significant numbers flying to TAB from LGW via POS. TAB used to get 4x weekly.

In addition when BA announced that they were going to add additional service to UVF to replace those of VS they planned to use the Nonpremium 777s.
Last edited by caribny on Mon May 04, 2020 9:02 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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