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817Dreamliiner
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Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Mon May 04, 2020 8:50 pm

caribny wrote:

Why does ANU not get the premium 777s then? Its a more upscale destination. Sandals is an upper tier mass market resort, aimed directly to the middle class, who want a quality resort. Its NOT a premium brand in the USA, so I dont see why it would be in the UK.

ANU does get them and have been getting them for years, Only difference is that they sell the First seats as Business seats.
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Speedbird2155
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Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Mon May 04, 2020 9:00 pm

817Dreamliiner wrote:
caribny wrote:

Why does ANU not get the premium 777s then? Its a more upscale destination. Sandals is an upper tier mass market resort, aimed directly to the middle class, who want a quality resort. Its NOT a premium brand in the USA, so I dont see why it would be in the UK.

ANU does get them and have been getting them for years, Only difference is that they sell the First seats as Business seats.


BA does not sell First seats as Club. The cabin is closed unless there is an overbooking in the other cabins that require the additional space that First would provide. Customers seated in this cabin would receive a Club service as ANU is a 3 class route and not a 4 class.

Also, ANU would generally see few 4 class aircraft as there are generally there are only 3 of them based at LGW from memory. These are used on the 3 routes that generally have a 4 class service from LGW and therefore rarely ever spare to operate an ANU service.
 
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817Dreamliiner
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Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Mon May 04, 2020 9:16 pm

Speedbird2155 wrote:
BA does not sell First seats as Club. The cabin is closed unless there is an overbooking in the other cabins that require the additional space that First would provide. Customers seated in this cabin would receive a Club service as ANU is a 3 class route and not a 4 class.


I never said ANU was a 4 class route. Even so, they are scheduled on the route.

Speedbird2155 wrote:
Also, ANU would generally see few 4 class aircraft as there are generally there are only 3 of them based at LGW from memory. These are used on the 3 routes that generally have a 4 class service from LGW and therefore rarely ever spare to operate an ANU service.


The 4 class 777s are actually fairly regular to ANU. Usually twice a week over the last year. During February and March this year they operated 4 times a week to ANU and UVF only saw them 3 times a week.
I'll wake from the dream, To keep and relive, Now life it is a dream, And dream's on a... BREAK!
 
Brickell305
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Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Mon May 04, 2020 9:55 pm

caribny wrote:
gunnerman wrote:
I'm not inclined to believe that this is correct. Trinidad arriving traffic is different to most of the Caribbean with a lot being VFR and business. There were about 66,700 arrivals at POS from LGW last year of which about 26% would have been VFR and 19% business (based on overall arrival statistics), neither being the type of passengers who travel first class. It's the well-heeled leisure passengers who have the money to do so, and the fact that St Lucia has three Sandals resorts whilst Antigua has one may suggest that it's the rich St Lucia traffic which made BA put 772s with First class cabins on the route.



Why does ANU not get the premium 777s then? Its a more upscale destination, and has been for a long time. Its only in the last decade or so that SLU has begun to add the well heeled crowd and they go to resorts like Jade, NOT Sandals. Sandals is a mass market resort, aimed directly to the middle class, who want a quality resort. Its NOT a premium brand in the USA, so I dont see why it would be in the UK. When I searched for 5 stars in SLU Sandals didn't pop up despite their large numbers of properties. If Sandals was a strong brand in the UK they would have set up shop long ago in BGI. Their customer base is more US oriented.

The only variable I see between the two is ANU has tag on flights to TAB, SKB, and PLS, all non premium leisure with SKB also getting VFR. And POS has its 20% business arrival component (your data), and these are most likely corporates. Does either ANU or SLU attract corporate business? Remember that even on the premium 777 the vast majority of the seats are nonpremium. I also suspect that your numbers include TAB as there is no way that POS has a majority leisure component. People flying from LGW to POS often travel via TAB to get lower fares so I doubt that there are significant numbers flying to TAB from LGW via POS. TAB used to get 4x weekly.

In addition when BA announced that they were going to add additional service to UVF to replace those of VS they planned to use the Nonpremium 777s.

Re the high percentage of leisure traffic, the main reason for that is likely due to the fact that even VFR travelers generally select “vacation/leisure” on their immigration forms. Even on the most heavily VFR oriented routes, you’ll see most people self declare leisure as the purpose of trip.

Re the 4 class service to UVF/POS, to the extent that there is a business component to POS, that segment would likely be flying business class. There are very few company policies anywhere in the world that allow people to fly First so I doubt the business component would be the reason for First. Also, the 4 class plane is also scheduled on days the plane continues to GND. I doubt UVF depends on GND to fill First. And as to why the additional flights to UVF were scheduled on 3 class planes, all of the 4 class planes were already assigned to their respective destinations. They had no more unless they transitioned one from another route.
 
gunnerman
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Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Mon May 04, 2020 11:12 pm

My figures came from the TnT government which gets returns from passengers.

When BA adds flights, as was common in the case of BGI in the winter for many years, this was always with 3-cabin 772s as there isn't the justification for pulling 4-cabin planes off other routes.
 
gunnerman
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Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Tue May 05, 2020 1:53 pm

The news broke today that VS is going to make almost a third of its employees redundant and close its LGW base. I do not expect to see another VS aircraft in the Caribbean again, a big shame as the airline has served the region since September 1998 from LGW starting with BGI and UVF with ANU a month later.
https://www.airliners.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1443313&p=22197385#p22197385
 
Speedbird2155
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Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Tue May 05, 2020 2:00 pm

gunnerman wrote:
The news broke today that VS is going to make almost a third of its employees redundant and close its LGW base. I do not expect to see another VS aircraft in the Caribbean again, a big shame as the airline has served the region since September 1998 from LGW starting with BGI and UVF with ANU a month later.
https://www.airliners.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1443313&p=22197385#p22197385


Unlikely that they will cut all Caribbean services but expect major reductions and route changes. BGI likely to remain from LHR but not daily, with possibly once weekly from MAN. ANU possibly remain from LHR also, maybe linked to BGI. Other islands are questionable.
 
Brickell305
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Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Tue May 05, 2020 2:05 pm

Speedbird2155 wrote:
gunnerman wrote:
The news broke today that VS is going to make almost a third of its employees redundant and close its LGW base. I do not expect to see another VS aircraft in the Caribbean again, a big shame as the airline has served the region since September 1998 from LGW starting with BGI and UVF with ANU a month later.
https://www.airliners.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1443313&p=22197385#p22197385


Unlikely that they will cut all Caribbean services but expect major reductions and route changes. BGI likely to remain from LHR but not daily, with possibly once weekly from MAN. ANU possibly remain from LHR also, maybe linked to BGI. Other islands are questionable.

I agree. VS (if they survive) will just reduce frequency to the Caribbean as necessary. I doubt it will be dropped entirely.
 
gunnerman
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Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Tue May 05, 2020 2:14 pm

Let's look at VS's Caribbean destinations, I list them in what I believe to be in order of profitability. I haven't listed UVF as it was going to be axed anyway next month.
BGI
ANU
HAV
MBJ
GND
TAB

I think BGI will survive, the best hope for GND and TAB is a weekly tag from ANU during the next winter season.
 
baje427
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Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Tue May 05, 2020 2:20 pm

Caribbean governments are really going to have to find alternatives to tourism in quick order. This VS cut along with AC retiring its 767 and A319's means the region is unlikely to get much service for the next 2 to 5 years.
 
gunnerman
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Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Tue May 05, 2020 3:13 pm

The Caribbean countries cannot export more goods to make up for loss of tourism. The best bet would be to keep the destinations attractive to tourists by keeping open hotels, restaurants, nature trails, taxis, etc, by encoraging (paying) airlines to fly back in and by establishing suitable meaures to enhance safety and security of locals and tourists alike. All of this will cost but countries such as Grenada, Dominica snd St Lucia have recently been awarded IMF Rapid Credit Facility loan disbursements totalling US$65.6 million.
 
maverick4002
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Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Tue May 05, 2020 3:43 pm

baje427 wrote:
Caribbean governments are really going to have to find alternatives to tourism in quick order. This VS cut along with AC retiring its 767 and A319's means the region is unlikely to get much service for the next 2 to 5 years.


Oh hey Caribbean Airlines lol. Work out the financial logistics, make sure BW is financially compensated since they would likely pay the other airlines anyway and lets make something happen. If they dont want to for whatever reason (BW not having the reach in the US market or anything really) then so be it, but its still an option to look at.
 
caribny
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Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Tue May 05, 2020 3:46 pm

baje427 wrote:
Caribbean governments are really going to have to find alternatives to tourism in quick order. This VS cut along with AC retiring its 767 and A319's means the region is unlikely to get much service for the next 2 to 5 years.



Taking Barbados as an example what do you suggest. Export agriculture cannot work as no one is providing guaranteed prices or markets anymore. BGI cannot compete with the DR, Colombia or Central America in getting tropical produce into the US markets. Its about quantity, quality control and low prices based on low costs. Manufacturing; well both the import substitution and the export assembly failed. Tech; Caribbean people on the whole are expensive based on their productivity and technical levels of expertise. Your average high school graduate isnt going to be designing cutting edge apps that can be monetized.

The same challenges that tourism faces are true of other sectors. So Caribbean people will have to go back to chattel house and subsistence living.

People will want to travel. Caribbean people will just have to develop a product that people will want to buy and integrate tourism into the rest of the economy. Maybe Europe is gone for now but the relatively short distances from North America will provide opportunities. Folks have real cabin fever.
 
maverick4002
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Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Tue May 05, 2020 3:47 pm

gunnerman wrote:
The news broke today that VS is going to make almost a third of its employees redundant and close its LGW base. I do not expect to see another VS aircraft in the Caribbean again, a big shame as the airline has served the region since September 1998 from LGW starting with BGI and UVF with ANU a month later.
https://www.airliners.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1443313&p=22197385#p22197385


"It will be moving its flying programme from London Gatwick to London Heathrow, with the intention of retaining its slot portfolio at London Gatwick, so it can return in line with customer demand.

Above quote from the VS press release. They want to keep LGW slots, that would indicate the flying will come back, or they hope it will at least. No need for doom and gloom just yet
 
caribny
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Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Tue May 05, 2020 3:58 pm

maverick4002 wrote:
baje427 wrote:
Caribbean governments are really going to have to find alternatives to tourism in quick order. This VS cut along with AC retiring its 767 and A319's means the region is unlikely to get much service for the next 2 to 5 years.


Oh hey Caribbean Airlines lol. Work out the financial logistics, make sure BW is financially compensated since they would likely pay the other airlines anyway and lets make something happen. If they dont want to for whatever reason (BW not having the reach in the US market or anything really) then so be it, but its still an option to look at.


BW cannot open up VFR markets so the islands (government and private sector) will have to promote. their destinations. If people want to travel they will use the modes available. Airfares are going to soar as extra mechanisms (including fewer seats) are implemented. Caribbean islands will have to reposition for the more upscale markets, unless they are low cost destinations.

BW cannot replace the foreign carriers but it can be used more than it currently is, definitely out of NY, which is a strong O&D market for the Caribbean. Jamaica doesnt need them, but some of the smaller Eastern Caribbean islands might, provided that they understand that their marketing will have to be more proactive as BW lacks reach into the leisure market due to its limited mar
 
baje427
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Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Tue May 05, 2020 4:37 pm

caribny wrote:
baje427 wrote:
Caribbean governments are really going to have to find alternatives to tourism in quick order. This VS cut along with AC retiring its 767 and A319's means the region is unlikely to get much service for the next 2 to 5 years.



Taking Barbados as an example what do you suggest. Export agriculture cannot work as no one is providing guaranteed prices or markets anymore. BGI cannot compete with the DR, Colombia or Central America in getting tropical produce into the US markets. Its about quantity, quality control and low prices based on low costs. Manufacturing; well both the import substitution and the export assembly failed. Tech; Caribbean people on the whole are expensive based on their productivity and technical levels of expertise. Your average high school graduate isnt going to be designing cutting edge apps that can be monetized.

The same challenges that tourism faces are true of other sectors. So Caribbean people will have to go back to chattel house and subsistence living.

People will want to travel. Caribbean people will just have to develop a product that people will want to buy and integrate tourism into the rest of the economy. Maybe Europe is gone for now but the relatively short distances from North America will provide opportunities. Folks have real cabin fever.

We shall see the government has established a task force with a view of transforming the economy.
 
Brickell305
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Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Tue May 05, 2020 4:43 pm

maverick4002 wrote:
gunnerman wrote:
The news broke today that VS is going to make almost a third of its employees redundant and close its LGW base. I do not expect to see another VS aircraft in the Caribbean again, a big shame as the airline has served the region since September 1998 from LGW starting with BGI and UVF with ANU a month later.
https://www.airliners.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1443313&p=22197385#p22197385


"It will be moving its flying programme from London Gatwick to London Heathrow, with the intention of retaining its slot portfolio at London Gatwick, so it can return in line with customer demand.

Above quote from the VS press release. They want to keep LGW slots, that would indicate the flying will come back, or they hope it will at least. No need for doom and gloom just yet


They are laying off a third of their staff and retiring a quarter of their fleet. To the extent that they expect flying to come back, it won’t be any time soon. This is all presuming that they remain in business at all.
 
2travel2know2
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Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Tue May 05, 2020 4:49 pm

gunnerman wrote:
The Caribbean countries cannot export more goods to make up for loss of tourism. The best bet would be to keep the destinations attractive to tourists by keeping open hotels, restaurants, nature trails, taxis, etc, by encoraging (paying) airlines to fly back in and by establishing suitable meaures to enhance safety and security of locals and tourists alike. All of this will cost but countries such as Grenada, Dominica snd St Lucia have recently been awarded IMF Rapid Credit Facility loan disbursements totalling US$65.6 million.
I could see Jamaica pushing hard its "Jamaica (Blue) Mountain Coffee" from now on, but its effect on the Jamaican economy might be minimal.
After so many years of tourism-dependance (oil for T&T) its hard to visualise islands going back to (premium niche) agriculture.
I'm not on CM's payroll.
 
caribny
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Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Tue May 05, 2020 5:02 pm

baje427 wrote:
We shall see the government has established a task force with a view of transforming the economy.



Diversification is fully in order but it isnt going to solve the immediate problem which is the implosion of the tourism sector due to Covid 19. A mere 300k people isnt big enough a market to offset that which tourism contributed to the economy. Export markets will take time to develop as the only industry which Barbados competes with is tourism, and to a lesser degree the BPO services.

So BGI will have to continue to work with tourism, look at its markets and product, and work with the carriers to get service. Put it this way if North Americans will be unable to travel to the Caribbean, because of lack of airlift, then Caribbean people will be unable to travel to North America, and so more will have to look at the Caribbean. If Barbados cannot sell its tourism services to North Americans to attract airlift then it will do no better with other industries.

Saying that one needs to diversify is great. But actually doing so is another matter. It isnt as if other industries didn't once exist. As they failed it was tourism which was left standing.
 
gunnerman
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Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Tue May 05, 2020 5:16 pm

maverick4002 wrote:
gunnerman wrote:
The news broke today that VS is going to make almost a third of its employees redundant and close its LGW base. I do not expect to see another VS aircraft in the Caribbean again, a big shame as the airline has served the region since September 1998 from LGW starting with BGI and UVF with ANU a month later.
https://www.airliners.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1443313&p=22197385#p22197385


"It will be moving its flying programme from London Gatwick to London Heathrow, with the intention of retaining its slot portfolio at London Gatwick, so it can return in line with customer demand.

Above quote from the VS press release. They want to keep LGW slots, that would indicate the flying will come back, or they hope it will at least. No need for doom and gloom just yet

VS is operating solely from LHR with passenger and (increasingly) cargo flights to JFK, LAX, HKG and PVG with more cargo-only routes to DUB, TLV, JNB and BOM. As for LGW: ACL has granted airlines at LCY, LHR and LGW a waiver from the 80% "use it or lose" rule on slots up to the end of June. So, VS could return to LGW after June in order to keep some slots but that costs money when they've got spare capacity at LHR - not to mention that it can become quite attractive to dealing with the economies of having just one hub. Unless LGW offers VS some demon deal I won't be at all sure that VS will be seen at LGW again.
 
ryby92
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Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Tue May 05, 2020 5:27 pm

caribny wrote:
baje427 wrote:
We shall see the government has established a task force with a view of transforming the economy.



Diversification is fully in order but it isnt going to solve the immediate problem which is the implosion of the tourism sector due to Covid 19. A mere 300k people isnt big enough a market to offset that which tourism contributed to the economy. Export markets will take time to develop as the only industry which Barbados competes with is tourism, and to a lesser degree the BPO services.

So BGI will have to continue to work with tourism, look at its markets and product, and work with the carriers to get service. Put it this way if North Americans will be unable to travel to the Caribbean, because of lack of airlift, then Caribbean people will be unable to travel to North America, and so more will have to look at the Caribbean. If Barbados cannot sell its tourism services to North Americans to attract airlift then it will do no better with other industries.

Saying that one needs to diversify is great. But actually doing so is another matter. It isnt as if other industries didn't once exist. As they failed it was tourism which was left standing.


Very true indeed. The critics always call for diversification yet fail to provide an alternative solution. Go figure.

Many fail to realize that tourism is more than about hotels. Destinations have many attractions, restaurants who depend largely on visitors whether they arrive by plane or cruise ship so it's not like we can shut down tourism and open up another industry as many seem to be suggesting. And too many people tend to look down at tourism jobs as demeaning but it's more than making up a bed or serving food at a table. Our hospitality and our people are the reasons why many a visitor comes back and is our advantage we have over many. In the grander scheme we are also a safer place wrt CONVID 19 so those who might have gone to Europe may come here.

And contrary to belief the pay can be quite good when service charge is added to basic pay along with other benefits such as meals provided on duty for all staff. How many other work places offer such a benefit?
 
embraer175e2
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Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Tue May 05, 2020 9:54 pm

gunnerman wrote:
Apart from BA, VS and TUI, all have gone bust and VS is in dire straits.

Does TUI fly out of England to Trinidad? Who is VS?
 
trintocan
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Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Tue May 05, 2020 10:33 pm

embraer175e2 wrote:
gunnerman wrote:
Apart from BA, VS and TUI, all have gone bust and VS is in dire straits.

Does TUI fly out of England to Trinidad? Who is VS?


VS is Virgin Atlantic. TUI do not fly to Trinidad & Tobago. BA operate POS, Trinidad's only route to the UK with 5 weekly flights to LGW via UVF. These flights have now been suspended due to the crisis.

Trintocan.
Hop to it, fly for life!
 
Caymanair
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Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Tue May 05, 2020 10:38 pm

2travel2know2 wrote:
gunnerman wrote:
The Caribbean countries cannot export more goods to make up for loss of tourism. The best bet would be to keep the destinations attractive to tourists by keeping open hotels, restaurants, nature trails, taxis, etc, by encoraging (paying) airlines to fly back in and by establishing suitable meaures to enhance safety and security of locals and tourists alike. All of this will cost but countries such as Grenada, Dominica snd St Lucia have recently been awarded IMF Rapid Credit Facility loan disbursements totalling US$65.6 million.
I could see Jamaica pushing hard its "Jamaica (Blue) Mountain Coffee" from now on, but its effect on the Jamaican economy might be minimal.
After so many years of tourism-dependance (oil for T&T) its hard to visualise islands going back to (premium niche) agriculture.


Let's face it.. both agriculture and mass tourism are low income industries. It will not build real wealth for West Indian families, especially if we aren't the ones who own the hotels and farms. Those sprawling mega all-inclusives generate mass employment but do not create an enviable standard of living for 95% of those that work in those industries. Harvesting bananas for export to protected markets was key to keeping communities poor uneducated. We could never operate societies based solely on that type of economic activity. It was never sustainable in the long term.

It will be interesting to see how each Caribbean country approached these changes and how it will affect airlift and connectivity, as both are critically important. Unfortunately history has shown us that we are more likely to throw a hissy fit, compete, and race to the bottom to our own detriment.
 
caribny
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Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Wed May 06, 2020 6:13 am

ryby92 wrote:

Very true indeed. The critics always call for diversification yet fail to provide an alternative solution. Go figure.

Many fail to realize that tourism is more than about hotels. Destinations have many attractions, restaurants who depend largely on visitors whether they arrive by plane or cruise ship so it's not like we can shut down tourism and open up another industry as many seem to be suggesting. And too many people tend to look down at tourism jobs as demeaning but it's more than making up a bed or serving food at a table. Our hospitality and our people are the reasons why many a visitor comes back and is our advantage we have over many. In the grander scheme we are also a safer place wrt CONVID 19 so those who might have gone to Europe may come here.

And contrary to belief the pay can be quite good when service charge is added to basic pay along with other benefits such as meals provided on duty for all staff. How many other work places offer such a benefit?


Yes we have all heard that "tourism is slavery", "tourism is unreliable". With the exception of T&T all of the sovereign Caribbean islands with the highest GDP per capita are the ones where tourism is a dominant part of their economy. Look at poor Dominica. Dependent on agriculture, and now but for their passport program they would be broke. Even DOM is now looking more at tourism.

In fact the fastest way that the Caribbean can diversify their economies is to integrate tourism. Beverages/foods local. Furnishings, local. Employee uniforms, local. Now you have developed other sectors without struggling to gain market share into the North American/European markets. In if these brands become popular with visitors they may even continue to consume it when they return.

So Caribbean gov'ts will have to jointly negotiate the return of the major airlines, and, if necessary, provide some support for BW.
 
caribny
Posts: 475
Joined: Sat Mar 16, 2019 1:47 am

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Wed May 06, 2020 6:13 am

ryby92 wrote:

Very true indeed. The critics always call for diversification yet fail to provide an alternative solution. Go figure.

Many fail to realize that tourism is more than about hotels. Destinations have many attractions, restaurants who depend largely on visitors whether they arrive by plane or cruise ship so it's not like we can shut down tourism and open up another industry as many seem to be suggesting. And too many people tend to look down at tourism jobs as demeaning but it's more than making up a bed or serving food at a table. Our hospitality and our people are the reasons why many a visitor comes back and is our advantage we have over many. In the grander scheme we are also a safer place wrt CONVID 19 so those who might have gone to Europe may come here.

And contrary to belief the pay can be quite good when service charge is added to basic pay along with other benefits such as meals provided on duty for all staff. How many other work places offer such a benefit?


Yes we have all heard that "tourism is slavery", "tourism is unreliable". With the exception of T&T all of the sovereign Caribbean islands with the highest GDP per capita are the ones where tourism is a dominant part of their economy. Look at poor Dominica. Dependent on agriculture, and now but for their passport program they would be broke. Even DOM is now looking more at tourism.

In fact the fastest way that the Caribbean can diversify their economies is to integrate tourism. Beverages/foods local. Furnishings, local. Employee uniforms, local. Now you have developed other sectors without struggling to gain market share into the North American/European markets. In if these brands become popular with visitors they may even continue to consume it when they return.

So Caribbean gov'ts will have to jointly negotiate the return of the major airlines, and, if necessary, provide some support for BW.
 
caribny
Posts: 475
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Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Wed May 06, 2020 6:20 am

[quote="caribny"]

Duplicate.
 
embraer175e2
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Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Wed May 06, 2020 7:39 pm

When will BA restart flights to Pos?
 
Brickell305
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Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Wed May 06, 2020 8:43 pm

embraer175e2 wrote:
When will BA restart flights to Pos?

Currently scheduled for July 2.
 
LimaFoxTango
Posts: 978
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Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Fri May 08, 2020 9:45 pm

U.S. FAA downgrades safety rating of Eastern Caribbean aviation system rating

The Federal Aviation Administration said Friday it had downgraded the safety rating for the Organization of Eastern Caribbean States (OECS), a move that means carriers from those island nations cannot start new service.

https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN22K2P7

**********

Well this couldn't have come at a worse time.
You are said to be a good pilot when your take-off's equal your landings.
 
Brickell305
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Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Fri May 08, 2020 10:04 pm

LimaFoxTango wrote:
U.S. FAA downgrades safety rating of Eastern Caribbean aviation system rating

The Federal Aviation Administration said Friday it had downgraded the safety rating for the Organization of Eastern Caribbean States (OECS), a move that means carriers from those island nations cannot start new service.

https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN22K2P7

**********

Well this couldn't have come at a worse time.

Is it really that bad? The only US route LI would be looking to (re)start anytime soon is STX. I doubt that would have occurred post-COVID anyway. I doubt the COVID related suspensions of SJU and STT preclude LI from restarting.
 
gunnerman
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Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Fri May 08, 2020 10:10 pm

In practice this will have no impact as nobody will be launching new services to the US for quite a while. At best LI will resume existing ones such as ANU-STT.
 
Brickell305
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Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Mon May 11, 2020 5:13 pm

Cayman Islands has extended its border closure to September 1.

http://jamaica-gleaner.com/article/news ... eptember-1
 
dominicl316
Posts: 120
Joined: Tue Jul 12, 2005 1:48 am

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Mon May 11, 2020 8:38 pm

Brickell305 wrote:
The only US route LI would be looking to (re)start anytime soon is STX. I doubt that would have occurred post-COVID anyway. I doubt the COVID related suspensions of SJU and STT preclude LI from restarting.


LI should still be able to launch STX, if they choose to do so post-shutdown, as they already have the route rights.

Fortunately, the air taxi services (namely Air Sunshine and Coastal Air) that link USVI with AXA, SKB, NEV, EUX, DOM, and SLU are US based.

Are there any OECS airlines that could be affected? I know One Caribbean is SVG, but they only do charters to SJU, STT and STX. Would their charter service be affected?

I am waiting for the day that SXM is put back on Category 1, so WinAir can serve STX and STT. They were going to do a codeshare with Air Antilles, but there was a permitting holdup between the French govt in Paris and the local Dutch SXM govt regarding route rights for Air Antilles. Apparently Air Antilles only had a permit with the Dutch SXM to do SJU on their metal, and not STT/STX.
 
Brickell305
Posts: 1057
Joined: Sat Jun 24, 2017 2:07 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Mon May 11, 2020 9:26 pm

dominicl316 wrote:
Brickell305 wrote:
The only US route LI would be looking to (re)start anytime soon is STX. I doubt that would have occurred post-COVID anyway. I doubt the COVID related suspensions of SJU and STT preclude LI from restarting.


LI should still be able to launch STX, if they choose to do so post-shutdown, as they already have the route rights.

Fortunately, the air taxi services (namely Air Sunshine and Coastal Air) that link USVI with AXA, SKB, NEV, EUX, DOM, and SLU are US based.

Are there any OECS airlines that could be affected? I know One Caribbean is SVG, but they only do charters to SJU, STT and STX. Would their charter service be affected?

I am waiting for the day that SXM is put back on Category 1, so WinAir can serve STX and STT. They were going to do a codeshare with Air Antilles, but there was a permitting holdup between the French govt in Paris and the local Dutch SXM govt regarding route rights for Air Antilles. Apparently Air Antilles only had a permit with the Dutch SXM to do SJU on their metal, and not STT/STX.


LI would not be able to relaunch STX. Not only does a category 2 classification stop them from adding new service, it also stops them from increasing existing service.

https://www.faa.gov/travelers/international_travel/
 
dominicl316
Posts: 120
Joined: Tue Jul 12, 2005 1:48 am

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Mon May 11, 2020 10:52 pm

Brickell305 wrote:

LI would not be able to relaunch STX. Not only does a category 2 classification stop them from adding new service, it also stops them from increasing existing service.

https://www.faa.gov/travelers/international_travel/


Doesn't LIAT's existing route rights to STX count as "existing service" even though they are currently not flying the route?
 
Brickell305
Posts: 1057
Joined: Sat Jun 24, 2017 2:07 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Mon May 11, 2020 11:15 pm

dominicl316 wrote:
Brickell305 wrote:

LI would not be able to relaunch STX. Not only does a category 2 classification stop them from adding new service, it also stops them from increasing existing service.

https://www.faa.gov/travelers/international_travel/


Doesn't LIAT's existing route rights to STX count as "existing service" even though they are currently not flying the route?


No. For example, LI would now not be able to increase SJU above 3x weekly. As they currently don't fly to STX at all, they would not be able to re-start it as that would mean increasing service above the current service level.
 
dominicl316
Posts: 120
Joined: Tue Jul 12, 2005 1:48 am

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Tue May 12, 2020 2:24 am

Brickell305 wrote:
dominicl316 wrote:
Brickell305 wrote:

LI would not be able to relaunch STX. Not only does a category 2 classification stop them from adding new service, it also stops them from increasing existing service.

https://www.faa.gov/travelers/international_travel/


Doesn't LIAT's existing route rights to STX count as "existing service" even though they are currently not flying the route?


No. For example, LI would now not be able to increase SJU above 3x weekly. As they currently don't fly to STX at all, they would not be able to re-start it as that would mean increasing service above the current service level.




Very disappointing. Perhaps InterCaribbean can take advantage of this situation by using their existing route rights to do a STX-EIS-ANU service that connects with LI flights further south.
 
caribny
Posts: 475
Joined: Sat Mar 16, 2019 1:47 am

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Tue May 12, 2020 8:00 am

dominicl316 wrote:



Very disappointing. Perhaps InterCaribbean can take advantage of this situation by using their existing route rights to do a STX-EIS-ANU service that connects with LI flights further south.



They are more likely to want to do these flights themselves. They already do DOM and SLU and have their eyes on BGI. They also plan to do GEO out of PLS/SDQ. Of course who knows what shape they will be in. Privately owned Caribbean carriers dont have a good track record as they lack government support that the state owned carriers get. BW will get support, and LI will also have to, even if that is ANU and BGI signing loan guarantees.

What I do know is that intra regional travel will be more important. Fewer Caribbean people might want to travel to the USA (also tighter restrictions for non immigrant visa issuance). Likely some routes operated by majors will be dropped. BA being the obvious carrier to do this. Its also likely that with sharp reductions in travel especially from Europe some islands will have to attempt to fill the gap to a limited degree by tapping into regional markets.
 
Brickell305
Posts: 1057
Joined: Sat Jun 24, 2017 2:07 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Tue May 12, 2020 1:00 pm

VS has announced their plans for the 2021 season. They intend to serve all current Caribbean destinations. ANU, BGI, GND, MBJ, TAB will be served from LHR. BGI will also be served from MAN.

https://www.godsavethepoints.com/virgin ... -schedule/
 
LimaFoxTango
Posts: 978
Joined: Wed Jun 16, 2004 11:33 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Tue May 12, 2020 1:09 pm

Brickell305 wrote:
VS has announced their plans for the 2021 season. They intend to serve all current Caribbean destinations. ANU, BGI, GND, MBJ, TAB will be served from LHR. BGI will also be served from MAN.

https://www.godsavethepoints.com/virgin ... -schedule/


There goes all the pessimists pontificating about the end of VS to the Caribbean.
You are said to be a good pilot when your take-off's equal your landings.
 
Brickell305
Posts: 1057
Joined: Sat Jun 24, 2017 2:07 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Tue May 12, 2020 1:54 pm

LimaFoxTango wrote:
Brickell305 wrote:
VS has announced their plans for the 2021 season. They intend to serve all current Caribbean destinations. ANU, BGI, GND, MBJ, TAB will be served from LHR. BGI will also be served from MAN.

https://www.godsavethepoints.com/virgin ... -schedule/


There goes all the pessimists pontificating about the end of VS to the Caribbean.

Just to add, I haven’t seen anything official yet but BA has also advised some tourism officials in the Caribbean that they plan to restart service in July with flights out of LHR as well.
 
trini81
Posts: 21
Joined: Tue Sep 04, 2018 8:26 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Tue May 12, 2020 2:17 pm

Trinidad and Tobago's Minister of Finance announced today at press conference that GORTT secured a US$65 million loan for Caribbean Airlines Limited to help CAL at this time. A reference or link would be provided later.
 
caribbean484
Posts: 904
Joined: Sat Jan 06, 2007 1:57 am

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Tue May 12, 2020 2:24 pm

Brickell305 wrote:
VS has announced their plans for the 2021 season. They intend to serve all current Caribbean destinations. ANU, BGI, GND, MBJ, TAB will be served from LHR. BGI will also be served from MAN.

https://www.godsavethepoints.com/virgin ... -schedule/


This is good news, at least the countries are not losing seats for the upcoming winter.
I find it peculiar though that in the past BA and VS were saying that the region was mostly leisure and LHR slots are not worth it for the low yields. The question I have is, is this going to be permanent? Or is this just temporary move to slot squat until pax numbers go up and restart operations in LGW?

Brickell305 wrote:
dominicl316 wrote:
Brickell305 wrote:

LI would not be able to relaunch STX. Not only does a category 2 classification stop them from adding new service, it also stops them from increasing existing service.

https://www.faa.gov/travelers/international_travel/


Doesn't LIAT's existing route rights to STX count as "existing service" even though they are currently not flying the route?


No. For example, LI would now not be able to increase SJU above 3x weekly. As they currently don't fly to STX at all, they would not be able to re-start it as that would mean increasing service above the current service level.


This is interesting, I guess with the ridiculous 747 being registered in SVD last year raised the necessary alarm bells to what is going on in the ECAA.

caribny wrote:
baje427 wrote:
We shall see the government has established a task force with a view of transforming the economy.



Diversification is fully in order but it isnt going to solve the immediate problem which is the implosion of the tourism sector due to Covid 19. A mere 300k people isnt big enough a market to offset that which tourism contributed to the economy. Export markets will take time to develop as the only industry which Barbados competes with is tourism, and to a lesser degree the BPO services.

So BGI will have to continue to work with tourism, look at its markets and product, and work with the carriers to get service. Put it this way if North Americans will be unable to travel to the Caribbean, because of lack of airlift, then Caribbean people will be unable to travel to North America, and so more will have to look at the Caribbean. If Barbados cannot sell its tourism services to North Americans to attract airlift then it will do no better with other industries.

Saying that one needs to diversify is great. But actually doing so is another matter. It isnt as if other industries didn't once exist. As they failed it was tourism which was left standing.


The problem with diversification is where is the R&D spend coming from? Also without a world class research institution and a very robust private sector to help drive the innovation necessary needed. People talk about diversification of many of these small islands and not noticed the low populations there, as well and the economies of scale needed to improve research productivity.
All ah we is one family
 
gunnerman
Posts: 1147
Joined: Fri May 19, 2017 7:55 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Tue May 12, 2020 3:51 pm

caribbean484 wrote:
Brickell305 wrote:
VS has announced their plans for the 2021 season. They intend to serve all current Caribbean destinations. ANU, BGI, GND, MBJ, TAB will be served from LHR. BGI will also be served from MAN.

https://www.godsavethepoints.com/virgin ... -schedule/


This is good news, at least the countries are not losing seats for the upcoming winter.
I find it peculiar though that in the past BA and VS were saying that the region was mostly leisure and LHR slots are not worth it for the low yields. The question I have is, is this going to be permanent? Or is this just temporary move to slot squat until pax numbers go up and restart operations in LGW?

Everything that you used to believe has to be reexamined as we now face a new reality. LHR expects traffic to be 97% down in April and it's just as bad if not worse at LGW. Both BA and VS are now rattling around in LHR (VS has only cargo flights I believe), so no point in reopening LGW for a few flights in the medium term as it just increases costs by operating from two bases. As we live in unprecedented times airlines can only put on some flights and see how it goes. And it's not just down to airlines as governments play a big part, e.g. if they insist on quarantining passengers then they won't have airlines flying into their destinations at all.
 
LimaFoxTango
Posts: 978
Joined: Wed Jun 16, 2004 11:33 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Tue May 12, 2020 3:56 pm

caribbean484 wrote:

This is interesting, I guess with the ridiculous 747 being registered in SVD last year raised the necessary alarm bells to what is going on in the ECAA.


The 747 saga, although rediculous, probably wasn't the cause of this. The FAA audits other CAA's on a regular basis and ECCAA had theirs last year. I do believe they were given some time to correct any findings against them, but its up to each individual state to pass necessary regulations. I know St Lucia was one of the offenders. They have a very strained relationship with ECCAA. If one country fails to do something, the strike is against the entire OECS bloc.
You are said to be a good pilot when your take-off's equal your landings.
 
baje427
Posts: 815
Joined: Mon Aug 01, 2011 12:42 am

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Tue May 12, 2020 7:25 pm

caribbean484 wrote:
Brickell305 wrote:
VS has announced their plans for the 2021 season. They intend to serve all current Caribbean destinations. ANU, BGI, GND, MBJ, TAB will be served from LHR. BGI will also be served from MAN.

https://www.godsavethepoints.com/virgin ... -schedule/


This is good news, at least the countries are not losing seats for the upcoming winter.
I find it peculiar though that in the past BA and VS were saying that the region was mostly leisure and LHR slots are not worth it for the low yields. The question I have is, is this going to be permanent? Or is this just temporary move to slot squat until pax numbers go up and restart operations in LGW?

Brickell305 wrote:
dominicl316 wrote:

Doesn't LIAT's existing route rights to STX count as "existing service" even though they are currently not flying the route?


No. For example, LI would now not be able to increase SJU above 3x weekly. As they currently don't fly to STX at all, they would not be able to re-start it as that would mean increasing service above the current service level.


This is interesting, I guess with the ridiculous 747 being registered in SVD last year raised the necessary alarm bells to what is going on in the ECAA.

caribny wrote:
baje427 wrote:
We shall see the government has established a task force with a view of transforming the economy.



Diversification is fully in order but it isnt going to solve the immediate problem which is the implosion of the tourism sector due to Covid 19. A mere 300k people isnt big enough a market to offset that which tourism contributed to the economy. Export markets will take time to develop as the only industry which Barbados competes with is tourism, and to a lesser degree the BPO services.

So BGI will have to continue to work with tourism, look at its markets and product, and work with the carriers to get service. Put it this way if North Americans will be unable to travel to the Caribbean, because of lack of airlift, then Caribbean people will be unable to travel to North America, and so more will have to look at the Caribbean. If Barbados cannot sell its tourism services to North Americans to attract airlift then it will do no better with other industries.

Saying that one needs to diversify is great. But actually doing so is another matter. It isnt as if other industries didn't once exist. As they failed it was tourism which was left standing.


The problem with diversification is where is the R&D spend coming from? Also without a world class research institution and a very robust private sector to help drive the innovation necessary needed. People talk about diversification of many of these small islands and not noticed the low populations there, as well and the economies of scale needed to improve research productivity.


All valid points re diversification however, its pretty clear we cant solely rely on tourism this virus is expected to rebound again in winter who knows how long it will be around or what or when the next crisis will be. Its better to at least try to find another viable income source than sit around and find all the reasons not to.
 
caribny
Posts: 475
Joined: Sat Mar 16, 2019 1:47 am

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Wed May 13, 2020 6:46 pm

LimaFoxTango wrote:
Brickell305 wrote:
VS has announced their plans for the 2021 season. They intend to serve all current Caribbean destinations. ANU, BGI, GND, MBJ, TAB will be served from LHR. BGI will also be served from MAN.

https://www.godsavethepoints.com/virgin ... -schedule/


There goes all the pessimists pontificating about the end of VS to the Caribbean.



Branson himself was singing the blues begging money from UK taxpayers. Now he decided to put in his own money, so things are now different. As predicted the UK government wasn't going to help.
 
caribny
Posts: 475
Joined: Sat Mar 16, 2019 1:47 am

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Wed May 13, 2020 7:16 pm

baje427 wrote:
caribbean484 wrote:
Brickell305 wrote:
VS has announced their plans for the 2021 season. They intend to serve all current Caribbean destinations. ANU, BGI, GND, MBJ, TAB will be served from LHR. BGI will also be served from MAN.

https://www.godsavethepoints.com/virgin ... -schedule/


This is good news, at least the countries are not losing seats for the upcoming winter.
I find it peculiar though that in the past BA and VS were saying that the region was mostly leisure and LHR slots are not worth it for the low yields. The question I have is, is this going to be permanent? Or is this just temporary move to slot squat until pax numbers go up and restart operations in LGW?

Brickell305 wrote:

No. For example, LI would now not be able to increase SJU above 3x weekly. As they currently don't fly to STX at all, they would not be able to re-start it as that would mean increasing service above the current service level.


This is interesting, I guess with the ridiculous 747 being registered in SVD last year raised the necessary alarm bells to what is going on in the ECAA.

caribny wrote:


Diversification is fully in order but it isnt going to solve the immediate problem which is the implosion of the tourism sector due to Covid 19. A mere 300k people isnt big enough a market to offset that which tourism contributed to the economy. Export markets will take time to develop as the only industry which Barbados competes with is tourism, and to a lesser degree the BPO services.

So BGI will have to continue to work with tourism, look at its markets and product, and work with the carriers to get service. Put it this way if North Americans will be unable to travel to the Caribbean, because of lack of airlift, then Caribbean people will be unable to travel to North America, and so more will have to look at the Caribbean. If Barbados cannot sell its tourism services to North Americans to attract airlift then it will do no better with other industries.

Saying that one needs to diversify is great. But actually doing so is another matter. It isnt as if other industries didn't once exist. As they failed it was tourism which was left standing.


The problem with diversification is where is the R&D spend coming from? Also without a world class research institution and a very robust private sector to help drive the innovation necessary needed. People talk about diversification of many of these small islands and not noticed the low populations there, as well and the economies of scale needed to improve research productivity.


All valid points re diversification however, its pretty clear we cant solely rely on tourism this virus is expected to rebound again in winter who knows how long it will be around or what or when the next crisis will be. Its better to at least try to find another viable income source than sit around and find all the reasons not to.



Tourism will remain the main driver given that Eastern Caribbean labor is expensive and with low skills levels. Some niche areas can develop but not enough to absorb most of the population. The Caribbean private sector remains the domain of shopkeepers, not innovators. Port of Spain, Bridgetown, Georgetown and Kingston aren't Accra, Lagos, Nairobi, or Jo'burg, where viable tech sectors are developing. The Caribbean cannot even develop a thriving media driven sector based on its vibrant culture. It doesnt leverage the markets that its large Diaspora or its visitor base can provide when they return home. Even some iconic Caribbean brands are now slipping out of (English) Caribbean hands.

Has CAL developed in ways that COPA did? Panama has less reason to worry about decisions that foreign carriers will make because COPA is a strong brand.

US/European economies are in dire shape and this isnt just the leisure sectors. Unless CARICOM economies become less dependent on these markets it remain vulnerable to these shocks. I bet the limited export oriented assembly plants which remain are also in dire shape, as are T&Ts energy based sectors. It isnt dependence on tourism which created the problem. Its dependence on external markets. What % of Caribbean consumer expenditures remain in the Caribbean?
 
2travel2know2
Posts: 2962
Joined: Mon Apr 26, 2010 3:01 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Wed May 13, 2020 8:00 pm

caribny wrote:
Tourism will remain the main driver given that Eastern Caribbean labor is expensive and with low skills levels. Some niche areas can develop but not enough to absorb most of the population.
Niche areas like premium rum, coffee, species, condiments, handcrafts, music/media are really an important complement, but complement that's, to Tourism in that part of the Americas.
The Caribbean private sector remains the domain of shopkeepers, not innovators. Port of Spain, Bridgetown, Georgetown and Kingston aren't Accra, Lagos, Nairobi, or Jo'burg, where viable tech sectors are developing.
All those Caribbean capitals together fit many times in one of those African cities, just by going by the critical mass, chances of tech development in The Caribbean may be less than in huge African cities, unless the Caribbean education sector really pushes for tech entrepreneurship.
The Caribbean cannot even develop a thriving media driven sector based on its vibrant culture. It doesnt leverage the markets that its large Diaspora or its visitor base can provide when they return home. Even some iconic Caribbean brands are now slipping out of (English) Caribbean hands.
Very sad indeed. The potential is there, Spanish speaking Latinoamérica has kind of done it, but mostly in Miami. English-speaking Caribbean desperately needs an integrated media player.
Has CAL developed in ways that COPA did? Panama has less reason to worry about decisions that foreign carriers will make because COPA is a strong brand.
CAL is a strong name (would rather say, name not brand, because its name is an asset), however its focus has always been (1) P2P VFR traffic (POS, GEO), (2) P2P some Tourism traffic, (3) some business traffic (POS,GEO), (4) the POS-TAB shuttle. Copying CM model, turning POS into a hub has never been a priority for BW and the different BW management teams have had their reason not to go that way.
Where could a BW hub operation get traffic from?
GEO, PBM, BGI.. ?
CCS traffic may work but is kind of out of the question now. BW route planners refuse to think of the major markets in the South which geographically would make sense for POS: GRU, GIG (oil + gas traffic), EZE, LIM and VVI (gas traffic); B.T.W. all within B737-800 range.
Sure, would BW dare to fly to South America, in the beginning its yields would be low as the new player in the South America - North America/Caribbean market, but wasn't that how CM started? Look where it's now.
US/European economies are in dire shape and this isn't just the leisure sectors. Unless CARICOM economies become less dependent on these markets it remain vulnerable to these shocks. I bet the limited export oriented assembly plants which remain are also in dire shape, as are T&Ts energy based sectors. It isnt dependence on tourism which created the problem. Its dependence on external markets. What % of Caribbean consumer expenditures remain in the Caribbean?
Small countries can't really count on their small markets, they all depend on external markets, be export or tourism. The energy sector would most likely rebound soon, other later, maybe much later.
I'm not on CM's payroll.

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