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Caymanair
Posts: 477
Joined: Mon Apr 05, 2004 4:53 am

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Tue Jun 02, 2020 8:26 pm

caribny wrote:
Jamaica reopens on June 15th, and the Bahamas on July 1. I expect that most other Caribbean destinations will reopen at that time, though subject new Covid related restrictions. Not sure how people, who travel to the Caribbean to relax, will feel about what will be far less relaxing than it used to be in past times. I expect that some might reevaluate whether long distance vacations are worth it.


It will be interesting to see how the openings will go, if governments actually have a solid process for doing so safely, and if there are any health issues arising out of letting tourists back in.
 
caribny
Posts: 363
Joined: Sat Mar 16, 2019 1:47 am

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Wed Jun 03, 2020 6:14 am

gunnerman wrote:
This summer is important, not for making money but for building confidence that all the protocols on the ground and in the air work well. If this summer is successfully negotiated we should see a lot more visitors in the winter season, and the Caribbean badly needs this next winter season to go well. I'm expecting all routes from north America to be reinstated, BA will be ready from LHR and VS should be flying from LHR by early November.



Agreed that this summer will be used to get things right. Jamaica allegedly has protocols 100 pages long, and other destinations will do the same. ICAO and other regulatory authorities will review airports for their health safety protocols just as they do for those related to anti terrorism.

Unless there is another wave winter travel should be back, even if below usual levels. We will see which carriers come back and what routes they run. UA and DL will be less visible in the Eastern Caribbean. How people will react to these safety protocols will also be of interest. As of now testing isnt readily available to people without symptoms in the USA. We will see how that changes.

The other issue to watch will be reduced tourist spend, interruptions in the food supply chain and how these impact the Caribbean.
 
gunnerman
Posts: 1103
Joined: Fri May 19, 2017 7:55 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Thu Jun 04, 2020 10:12 pm

In addition to the opening of Antigua with AA's first flight from MIA to ANU on 4 June, here are the other planned flights from north America.

B6 from JFK on 2 July using the 320. Flights will operate on Thursdays and Sundays.

DL from ATL on 4 July using the 738. Flights will operate on Saturdays.

WS from YYZ on 5 July using the 737. Flights will operate on Sundays.

BA also has a planned 772 due to start from LGW on 19 July but there has to be a doubt about this route. Flights are scheduled to operate on Thursdays and Sundays.
 
caribny
Posts: 363
Joined: Sat Mar 16, 2019 1:47 am

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Fri Jun 05, 2020 4:31 am

To my knowledge the UK insists on quarantine of people entering that nation from outside of the EU. I doubt that there will be much discretionary travel by UK residents to the Caribbean. To my knowledge Canada is doing the same thing.
 
Brickell305
Posts: 937
Joined: Sat Jun 24, 2017 2:07 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Sun Jun 14, 2020 1:08 pm

https://antiguaobserver.com/liat-to-ext ... re-months/

LI has extended temporary layoffs for another three months. As of now, I don’t believe there is an official restart date for scheduled passenger service.
 
gunnerman
Posts: 1103
Joined: Fri May 19, 2017 7:55 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Mon Jun 15, 2020 4:10 pm

Cancun is to incentivise people to visit this destination. According to local media, the city is set to launch the Come to Cancun 2 × 1 package in a bid to boost incoming passenger numbers. The deal is essentially a buy one, get one free package for beaches including Puerto Morelos, Isla Mujeres and Cancun itself, the Yucatan Times reported. The campaign will reportedly offer two free nights of accommodation for every two nights paid, and a refund of the plane ticket to travel with a friend. There are also plans for a social media competition that would allow travellers the chance to earn a lifetime travel certificate to Cancun.

The Cancun Hotel Association said it aims to accelerate the economic and tourist recovery of the Mexican Caribbean.
 
caribny
Posts: 363
Joined: Sat Mar 16, 2019 1:47 am

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Mon Jun 15, 2020 5:50 pm

Brickell305 wrote:
https://antiguaobserver.com/liat-to-extend-temporary-layoff-of-pilots-for-three-more-months/

LI has extended temporary layoffs for another three months. As of now, I don’t believe there is an official restart date for scheduled passenger service.



Well LI cannot do anything until BGI reopens, and that doesnt seem to be coming too soon. Fears of a resurgence of COVID in the USA will make them more cautious. Dont think that BGI wants to risk what is now happening in the DR, PR, and Haiti.
 
wadadli
Posts: 43
Joined: Fri Nov 09, 2007 1:51 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Mon Jun 15, 2020 7:46 pm

Virgin Atlantic Oct 2020 Boeing 787 Caribbean operations

Virgin Atlantic in October 2020 schedules Boeing 787-9 Dreamliner service to The Caribbean, including Antigua and Montego Bay. Planned operation as follows.

London Heathrow – Antigua 01OCT20 – 22OCT20 787-9 operates 1 weekly
VS133 LHR1210 – 1555ANU 789 4
VS134 ANU1800 – 0715+1LHR 789 4

The airline also operates 2 weekly London Heathrow – Antigua – Grenada and 1 weekly London Heathrow – Antigua – Tobago service with A330-300, for the month of October 2020.

London Heathrow – Montego Bay 02OCT20 – 23OCT20 787-9 operates 2 weekly
VS165 LHR1210 – 1550MBJ 789 25
VS166 MBJ1835 – 0935+1LHR 789 25

https://www.routesonline.com/news/38/ai ... f-12jun20/
 
maverick4002
Posts: 196
Joined: Sun Jul 12, 2015 2:14 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Tue Jun 16, 2020 2:33 am

gunnerman wrote:
Cancun is to incentivise people to visit this destination. According to local media, the city is set to launch the Come to Cancun 2 × 1 package in a bid to boost incoming passenger numbers. The deal is essentially a buy one, get one free package for beaches including Puerto Morelos, Isla Mujeres and Cancun itself, the Yucatan Times reported. The campaign will reportedly offer two free nights of accommodation for every two nights paid, and a refund of the plane ticket to travel with a friend. There are also plans for a social media competition that would allow travellers the chance to earn a lifetime travel certificate to Cancun.

The Cancun Hotel Association said it aims to accelerate the economic and tourist recovery of the Mexican Caribbean.


Im gonna look into this and do it! Four nights and a free flight. Take my momma for her bday (but really just cross off Chichen Itza from my world wonder list)
 
gunnerman
Posts: 1103
Joined: Fri May 19, 2017 7:55 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Sat Jun 20, 2020 9:21 pm

BA has the following summer Caribbean schedule, all flights from LGW except NAS-GCM from LHR.

LGW-BGI
18JUL20-28JUL20 Tuesday and Saturday, return following day
01AUG20 Daily

LGW-KIN
24JUl20 Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday and Friday

LGW-ANU-SKB
01AUG20 Wednesday and Saturday

LGW-ANU-PLS
02AUG20 Sunday

LGW-ANU-TAB
03AUG20 Monday and Friday

LGW-ANU
06AUG20 Thursday

LGW-UVF-GND
01AUG20 Wednesday and Saturday

LGW-UVF-POS
02AUG20 Monday, Tuesday, Thursday, Friday and Sunday

LGW-CUN
01AUG20 Monday, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday, Saturday and Sunday

LGW-PUJ
02AUG20 Tuesday, Thursday and Sunday

LHR-NAS-GCM
01SEP20 Monday, Tuesday, Thursday, Friday and Saturday
 
caribny
Posts: 363
Joined: Sat Mar 16, 2019 1:47 am

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Sun Jun 21, 2020 9:20 pm

gunnerman wrote:
BA has the following summer Caribbean schedule, all flights from LGW except NAS-GCM from LHR.

LGW-BGI
18JUL20-28JUL20 Tuesday and Saturday, return following day
01AUG20 Daily

LGW-KIN
24JUl20 Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday and Friday

LGW-ANU-SKB
01AUG20 Wednesday and Saturday

LGW-ANU-PLS
02AUG20 Sunday

LGW-ANU-TAB
03AUG20 Monday and Friday

LGW-ANU
06AUG20 Thursday

LGW-UVF-GND
01AUG20 Wednesday and Saturday

LGW-UVF-POS
02AUG20 Monday, Tuesday, Thursday, Friday and Sunday

LGW-CUN
01AUG20 Monday, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday, Saturday and Sunday

LGW-PUJ
02AUG20 Tuesday, Thursday and Sunday

LHR-NAS-GCM
01SEP20 Monday, Tuesday, Thursday, Friday and Saturday



How does all of this work if the UK requires people returning from trips outside of the EU to quarantine? I leave aside the fact that only the DR and Mexico remain more active Covid19 locations than the UK. Does this end Aug 1?
 
gunnerman
Posts: 1103
Joined: Fri May 19, 2017 7:55 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Sun Jun 21, 2020 11:26 pm

Quarantining isn't going to work as it will be ignored and the government isn't able to enforce it.
 
Caymanair
Posts: 477
Joined: Mon Apr 05, 2004 4:53 am

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Mon Jun 22, 2020 9:02 pm

That 1st September start date for LHR-NAS-GCM is tentative for sure. Authorities here seem very hesitant to allow non-residents to travel.They have stressed several times that that date might be pushed back.
 
caribny
Posts: 363
Joined: Sat Mar 16, 2019 1:47 am

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Mon Jun 22, 2020 10:05 pm

gunnerman wrote:
Quarantining isn't going to work as it will be ignored and the government isn't able to enforce it.



The main issue being that those who travel overseas dont know how effective quarantining might be, so many will not take the chance of facing some sort pf government sanction upon their return. The last thing they want is a nosy neighbor reporting them to the authorities. And you dont know if this will all be self quarantine.

https://www.bbc.com/news/explainers-52544307
 
gunnerman
Posts: 1103
Joined: Fri May 19, 2017 7:55 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Tue Jun 23, 2020 7:49 pm

CAL loses TT$96.1m (US$14.2) from March 23 to April 30.
http://www.guardian.co.tt/news/cal-loses-961m-in-6-weeks-6.2.1142041.4ca687c84f
 
caribny
Posts: 363
Joined: Sat Mar 16, 2019 1:47 am

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Thu Jun 25, 2020 7:52 pm

ANU has seen its COVID 19 cases increase by 150% to 65 since its reopening.
 
LimaFoxTango
Posts: 950
Joined: Wed Jun 16, 2004 11:33 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Thu Jun 25, 2020 7:59 pm

Strong rumours suggest a possible closure and rebirth of LIAT. Lets be clear here, if it does happen, it was NOT as a result of COVID-19. The governments are simply seizing an opportunity and not wasting a good pandemic.

https://268today.com/business/liat-shar ... d-reports/
You are said to be a good pilot when your take-off's equal your landings.
 
gunnerman
Posts: 1103
Joined: Fri May 19, 2017 7:55 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Thu Jun 25, 2020 8:09 pm

caribny wrote:
ANU has seen its COVID 19 cases increase by 150% to 65 since its reopening.

Charles “Max” Fernandez, Minister of Tourism of Antigua and Barbuda, confirmed that since opening Antigua’s airport to commercial traffic on June 4, there has been no confirmed cases of COVID-19 from arriving visitors. He credits the country’s success in mitigating the spread of the virus to a blanket-wide approach that spans all segments of the tourism sector.
https://www.travelweek.ca/news/grenada-eyes-july-1-reopening-more-updates-from-antigua/
 
Brickell305
Posts: 937
Joined: Sat Jun 24, 2017 2:07 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Thu Jun 25, 2020 8:36 pm

gunnerman wrote:
caribny wrote:
ANU has seen its COVID 19 cases increase by 150% to 65 since its reopening.

Charles “Max” Fernandez, Minister of Tourism of Antigua and Barbuda, confirmed that since opening Antigua’s airport to commercial traffic on June 4, there has been no confirmed cases of COVID-19 from arriving visitors. He credits the country’s success in mitigating the spread of the virus to a blanket-wide approach that spans all segments of the tourism sector.
https://www.travelweek.ca/news/grenada-eyes-july-1-reopening-more-updates-from-antigua/

The article you're referencing is outdated. Antigua has now registered 65 cases (39 new ones) as of yesterday. Ironically, the news of the fresh cases came two days after the Minister of Health declared Antigua "essentially COVID-free".
 
Brickell305
Posts: 937
Joined: Sat Jun 24, 2017 2:07 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Thu Jun 25, 2020 8:44 pm

LimaFoxTango wrote:
Strong rumours suggest a possible closure and rebirth of LIAT. Lets be clear here, if it does happen, it was NOT as a result of COVID-19. The governments are simply seizing an opportunity and not wasting a good pandemic.

https://268today.com/business/liat-shar ... d-reports/


Hopefully, they avoid a full on closure. However, it's been plainly obvious from the outset of the lockdowns that LIAT was not going to emerge in its current state. At the very least, a significant downsizing is in order. Whatever form that takes (fleet size, destinations, employee count) is left to be seen but there simply is no way LI can go back to what it was even just before COVID. And yes, I am aware that LI's problems long precede COVID but I believe that was the final nail in a rather large coffin. Never before has LI faced such an extended period of essentially zero revenue coupled with all of its shareholder govt's having no money and no political will to save it.

In other news, LI has officially extended its shutdown of passenger services to July 15.
 
baje427
Posts: 769
Joined: Mon Aug 01, 2011 12:42 am

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Thu Jun 25, 2020 9:58 pm

Honestly the economic damage this virus is causing will probably result in several people returning to subsistence living. With Canada essentially closed and the high levels of the virus in the UK and the US. Tourism as we once knew cannot occur the Antigua experience is clear. Most islands do not have the hospital capacity to handle widespread outbreaks of the island. Also once there is an outbreak its logical that travel advisories will be issued.
 
caribny
Posts: 363
Joined: Sat Mar 16, 2019 1:47 am

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Fri Jun 26, 2020 6:52 pm

baje427 wrote:
Honestly the economic damage this virus is causing will probably result in several people returning to subsistence living. With Canada essentially closed and the high levels of the virus in the UK and the US. Tourism as we once knew cannot occur the Antigua experience is clear. Most islands do not have the hospital capacity to handle widespread outbreaks of the island. Also once there is an outbreak its logical that travel advisories will be issued.



The pandemic is no way near being mitigated in the USA. It has now moved from the NE and Midwest to the sunbelt. NY now requires people arriving from many of these states to self quarantine. If NY requires this Caribbean islands which lack its health infrastructure, should take note. Granted that enforcement will be difficult, so this is more of a threat than a promise. NY is now well stocked with PPEs and testing materials, that being the prerequisite for the gradual reopening.

Also we might have an emerging political crisis as Trump implodes, given perceptions of his poor response to the pandemic, the Floyd related protests and to increasing levels of economic stress faced by large swathes of the population. Given this, as well as emerging budget cuts at the state and local levels, dont expect legions of US visitors this year. MBJ now is only getting 5 flights daily from the USA. KIN about 4, and these will be mainly returning nationals. Jamaica's product is based an all inclusive facilities, which reduce the risk of disease spread and also shelter the risk of community spread from imported cases. Sandals is marketing heavily. ANU offers a different product.

The Caribbean should instead have focused on intra regional travel. An opportunity wasted as those inclined to travel will be giving the USA a pass, so might have sought out another island. The USA will be a poor source, as a resumption of increased infections has rattled people. Most travel out of the USA will be nationals fleeing the disease. Problem is when some islands reopen to the USA it makes other countries close to them.

SKB in fact anticipated this and decided to remain closed and to observe the experiences of those early opening islands. SLU/DOM are up next in the Eastern Caribbean. I bet that BGI is watching ANU and using it as a guinea pig to see what they should do.

The travel trade has already stated that safety factors will determine where much of the upmarket visit, as they seek travel in ways that reduce exposure to disease. They will take note of destinations which reopened early and then lost control of the disease. Their thinking being that if governments dont prioritize the health of their nationals they definitely will not do this for visitors. Islands more reliant on the mass market might be less impacted as these travelers seem less concerned about the pandemic, though they will also have less money to travel.
 
BWA900
Posts: 73
Joined: Wed May 14, 2014 11:20 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Sun Jun 28, 2020 12:11 am

LIAT to be liquidated and a new airline formed.

“What I’m hoping that we do not have going forward with the new entity, is any squabble over the location of the headquarters,” - PM Gaston Browne

https://barbadostoday.bb/2020/06/27/fro ... pm-browne/
Flown: A300 A319 A320 A321 A333 A343 A359 A388 AT72 AT76 B712 B735 B736 B737 B738 B739 B38M B744 B752 B753 B763 B772ER B772LR B77W B788 B789 CRJ2 CRJ7 CRJ9 DH8A DH8B DH8D E145 E170 E190
 
danipawa
Posts: 375
Joined: Sat Oct 01, 2016 1:18 am

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Sun Jun 28, 2020 12:12 am

Oh no! Caribbean Airlines can get that market now.
 
baje427
Posts: 769
Joined: Mon Aug 01, 2011 12:42 am

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Sun Jun 28, 2020 12:50 am

BWA900 wrote:
LIAT to be liquidated and a new airline formed.

“What I’m hoping that we do not have going forward with the new entity, is any squabble over the location of the headquarters,” - PM Gaston Browne

https://barbadostoday.bb/2020/06/27/fro ... pm-browne/

This is solely the Antigua PM talking before an actual meeting has taken place expect something different to be said come next week.
 
caribny
Posts: 363
Joined: Sat Mar 16, 2019 1:47 am

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Sun Jun 28, 2020 1:22 am

baje427 wrote:
BWA900 wrote:
LIAT to be liquidated and a new airline formed.

“What I’m hoping that we do not have going forward with the new entity, is any squabble over the location of the headquarters,” - PM Gaston Browne

https://barbadostoday.bb/2020/06/27/fro ... pm-browne/

This is solely the Antigua PM talking before an actual meeting has taken place expect something different to be said come next week.



If its a brand new carrier the HQ isnt going to be ANU, despite what Gaston Browne says. BGI is now their main hub and ANU is now peripheral. A stripped down LI will likely see its northern routes chopped. Given that ECCAA is now Cat 2 likely that a new carrier mightn't enjoy access to the US territories anyway. Silber/Air Sunshine will fill that gap. Not sure what a post pandemic Inter Caribbean will be.
 
fowlr29
Posts: 2
Joined: Sat Jun 27, 2020 1:29 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Sun Jun 28, 2020 2:13 pm

If the new entity that is formed gets the old AOC transferred from the liquidated company to the new entity then ECCAA being CAT 2 now shouldn't have an impact with US routes; the rights should transfer along with the AOC.

In other news, Winair starts flying from July 4th. Limited schedule just to Antigua, five times a week, twice a day, and St. Barths 6 times a day.

SKB, DOM, and SJU tentatively returning July 15th when SKB and DOM borders are reopened.

Saba remaining closed until October 1st except if coming from the other BES islands or Curacao.
 
gunnerman
Posts: 1103
Joined: Fri May 19, 2017 7:55 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Sun Jun 28, 2020 4:05 pm

A new airline is a new airline, it has to show evidence of its personnel, assets and systems in place to obtain its AOC, route rights, aircraft, IATA code, etc. This looks similar to BW being grounded and replaced by Caribbean Airlines.
 
Brickell305
Posts: 937
Joined: Sat Jun 24, 2017 2:07 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Sun Jun 28, 2020 4:45 pm

Best of luck to all of LI’s staff and creditors. It will be interesting to see the new airline that emerges and their route structure going forward. I think it remains to be seen whether a smaller LI will have the critical mass to be viable. I also anticipate a major political struggle to secure a headquarters between ANU and BGI and less likely but still possibly SVD. I also anticipate major political struggles obtaining MRGs and other support from non-shareholders. This is not going to be easy by any means for any of the stakeholders involved.
 
MavyWavyATR
Posts: 204
Joined: Wed Dec 31, 2014 10:52 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Mon Jun 29, 2020 1:51 am

BWA900 wrote:
LIAT to be liquidated and a new airline formed.

“What I’m hoping that we do not have going forward with the new entity, is any squabble over the location of the headquarters,” - PM Gaston Browne

https://barbadostoday.bb/2020/06/27/fro ... pm-browne/


I wonder if BW would be interested in acquiring them and integrating them into their operations.
 
Brickell305
Posts: 937
Joined: Sat Jun 24, 2017 2:07 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Mon Jun 29, 2020 2:16 am

MavyWavyATR wrote:
BWA900 wrote:
LIAT to be liquidated and a new airline formed.

“What I’m hoping that we do not have going forward with the new entity, is any squabble over the location of the headquarters,” - PM Gaston Browne

https://barbadostoday.bb/2020/06/27/fro ... pm-browne/


I wonder if BW would be interested in acquiring them and integrating them into their operations.

a) BW already has ATRs on order.
b) To fly them where? Demand is going to decrease, not increase. I’m fairly certain that they regret ordering the ones that are on their way.
 
LimaFoxTango
Posts: 950
Joined: Wed Jun 16, 2004 11:33 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Mon Jun 29, 2020 2:42 am

MavyWavyATR wrote:
I wonder if BW would be interested in acquiring them and integrating them into their operations.


No
You are said to be a good pilot when your take-off's equal your landings.
 
baje427
Posts: 769
Joined: Mon Aug 01, 2011 12:42 am

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Mon Jun 29, 2020 5:14 am

Most people in the region will be unemployed, and every island will be in financial ruin should this virus continue as is. Speaking on the future of any airline based in the region is guess work at best at this point.
 
gunnerman
Posts: 1103
Joined: Fri May 19, 2017 7:55 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Mon Jun 29, 2020 10:43 am

I see no room for two little airlines with some overlapping routes in the Eastern Caribbean. The governments need to put their pride and prejudices aside and collaborate to have one airline. The two obvious bases are POS and BGI.
 
caribny
Posts: 363
Joined: Sat Mar 16, 2019 1:47 am

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Mon Jun 29, 2020 3:12 pm

gunnerman wrote:
A new airline is a new airline, it has to show evidence of its personnel, assets and systems in place to obtain its AOC, route rights, aircraft, IATA code, etc. This looks similar to BW being grounded and replaced by Caribbean Airlines.



Except that LIAT doesnt have money to pay severance, and its owners are also insolvent. Based on statements by 2 of the shareholders they seem to be walking away from LIAT. ANU was only interested because of the employment, so now that there are no employees they are no longer interested. ANU's role as a hub has declined now that most islands have alternate service. DOM and SVD will suffer most though Ralph Gonsalves thinks that One Caribbean can fill the gap for his island.

It turns out that BWs milk run is now needed, though it will have to be restructured. No one in CARICOM can afford to fund a new airline and I doubt the private sector does either, despite the frequent claims that a privatized LIAT would work wonders.
 
caribny
Posts: 363
Joined: Sat Mar 16, 2019 1:47 am

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Mon Jun 29, 2020 3:29 pm

Brickell305 wrote:
MavyWavyATR wrote:
BWA900 wrote:
LIAT to be liquidated and a new airline formed.

“What I’m hoping that we do not have going forward with the new entity, is any squabble over the location of the headquarters,” - PM Gaston Browne

https://barbadostoday.bb/2020/06/27/fro ... pm-browne/


I wonder if BW would be interested in acquiring them and integrating them into their operations.

a) BW already has ATRs on order.
b) To fly them where? Demand is going to decrease, not increase. I’m fairly certain that they regret ordering the ones that are on their way.


Demand will decrease but not disappear so there will still be a need for intra regional travel, even though most Caribbean people disrespect this market. I doubt that BW is going to set up a base in BGI. It will remain POS focused, routing some flights via BGI. This provides an impetus for WINAIR/Air Antilles to continue with their plans to expand.

I dont think that anyone will suggest that AA will cease service to the Caribbean despite the growing pandemic in parts of the USA and its impact on demand and heightened risk that this poses to the Caribbean itself (ANU now has 69 cases with some hotel workers now getting infected). So why are we predicting that no one will want to fly from BGI to SLU or POS to SVD? In fact intra regional travel is less risky than is encouraging visitors from the USA as the English speaking Caribbean has done one of the best jobs in containing the pandemic, so visits from these sources poses less risk over the next few months.
 
caribny
Posts: 363
Joined: Sat Mar 16, 2019 1:47 am

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Mon Jun 29, 2020 3:32 pm

gunnerman wrote:
I see no room for two little airlines with some overlapping routes in the Eastern Caribbean. The governments need to put their pride and prejudices aside and collaborate to have one airline. The two obvious bases are POS and BGI.



That problem has been solved. ANU and SVD are walking away from LI and leaving others to fill the gap if they so wish. BGI has had nothing to say so there will be no BW competing against LI. Others will enter the market, with WINAIR/Air Antilles being the one likeliest to attempt to partially fill the gap.
 
Brickell305
Posts: 937
Joined: Sat Jun 24, 2017 2:07 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Mon Jun 29, 2020 4:12 pm

caribny wrote:
Brickell305 wrote:
MavyWavyATR wrote:

I wonder if BW would be interested in acquiring them and integrating them into their operations.

a) BW already has ATRs on order.
b) To fly them where? Demand is going to decrease, not increase. I’m fairly certain that they regret ordering the ones that are on their way.


Demand will decrease but not disappear so there will still be a need for intra regional travel, even though most Caribbean people disrespect this market. I doubt that BW is going to set up a base in BGI. It will remain POS focused, routing some flights via BGI. This provides an impetus for WINAIR/Air Antilles to continue with their plans to expand.

I dont think that anyone will suggest that AA will cease service to the Caribbean despite the growing pandemic in parts of the USA and its impact on demand and heightened risk that this poses to the Caribbean itself (ANU now has 69 cases with some hotel workers now getting infected). So why are we predicting that no one will want to fly from BGI to SLU or POS to SVD? In fact intra regional travel is less risky than is encouraging visitors from the USA as the English speaking Caribbean has done one of the best jobs in containing the pandemic, so visits from these sources poses less risk over the next few months.

I never said there would be zero demand for intra regional travel. I am asking, again, where do you or anyone else suppose BW would use these ATRs they have on order or LI's (if they were somehow able to obtain theirs)? BW is not going to replicate LI's network, which was money losing prior to COVID and its knock on effects. BW already has a pretty robust network ex POS as is. Are they going to add flights to BGI, GND, SLU, SVD, etc. now that demand is weaker? The only other potential use for them would be to attempt to establish KIN as a western regional hub which is again likely a risky venture in a time of reduced demand.
 
Brickell305
Posts: 937
Joined: Sat Jun 24, 2017 2:07 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Mon Jun 29, 2020 5:53 pm

BW has announced its plan to restart service. They will initially begin with Jamaica with daily flights from KIN to JFK, a weekly KIN-YYZ flight and a twice weekly KIN-BGI.

There’s also mention of (re)starting KIN-MIA daily. No mention of FLL.

They also plan to resume regional flights to ANU & BGI. No mention of SXM.

https://www.caribbean-airlines.com/#/ca ... leases/302
 
fowlr29
Posts: 2
Joined: Sat Jun 27, 2020 1:29 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Tue Jun 30, 2020 12:53 am

SXM is supposed to restart on July 15th. BW filed with PJIA for the regular 456/457 schedule from that Wednesday. Surprised they don't want to just fly KIN to SXM and back seeing as Trinidad's borders are still closed.
 
caribny
Posts: 363
Joined: Sat Mar 16, 2019 1:47 am

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Tue Jun 30, 2020 6:24 am

Brickell305 wrote:
I never said there would be zero demand for intra regional travel. I am asking, again, where do you or anyone else suppose BW would use these ATRs they have on order or LI's (if they were somehow able to obtain theirs)? BW is not going to replicate LI's network, which was money losing prior to COVID and its knock on effects. BW already has a pretty robust network ex POS as is. Are they going to add flights to BGI, GND, SLU, SVD, etc. now that demand is weaker? The only other potential use for them would be to attempt to establish KIN as a western regional hub which is again likely a risky venture in a time of reduced demand.


Well it doesnt appear as if any airline will replace LIAT. Given that hundreds of thousands of passenger flew LI all over the Eastern Caribbean so if a new airline doesnt replace them then BW has opportunities for new routes., Different route structure, but certainly more flights out of BGI than currently exists. Someone has to service ANU, DOM, SLU, SVD, GND, and OGL out of BGI. BW doesnt need to add 10 planes to its fleet. It will pick and chose which routes make sense to them. Its current ATR fleet is currently committed so any expansion will use BWs new ATR.

No new hub out of KIN. The western Caribbean isnt underserved as the eastern Caribbean will be if LI isnt replaced, and I just dont see any evidence that anyone will replace LIAT in the near term.
 
debonair
Posts: 3762
Joined: Sat Jan 03, 2004 10:50 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Tue Jun 30, 2020 6:51 am

New, virtual airline CALEDONIA JETS, will start A340 services between STN and BGI, oneway @5000GBP and returns @7500GBP - PLUS the cost of a self-isolation hotel room and 300GBP for COVID19 testing...

https://www.caledoniajets.com/uk-to-bar ... ct-flight/
 
gunnerman
Posts: 1103
Joined: Fri May 19, 2017 7:55 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:09 pm

Caledonia Jets is a charter broker in Glasgow which was established in August 2019, and has chartered an A340 from Maltese charter airline AirX Charter. Flights from STN are planned to be weekly from 8 July (returning the next day from BGI as the crew must overnight) running to 26 December.
 
gunnerman
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Joined: Fri May 19, 2017 7:55 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Thu Jul 02, 2020 11:38 pm

The LIAT website (www.liat.com) has been down since at least Wednesday. It does look like sunset for LIAT.
 
caribny
Posts: 363
Joined: Sat Mar 16, 2019 1:47 am

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Fri Jul 03, 2020 2:33 pm

As of now the PM of ANU and the PM of SVD seem to be fighting. ANU has no money (not in either the public nor private sectors) but insists that any replacement be based on that island. If not he threatens to pull ANU out of the OECS and CARICOM. His claim is that the only export that ANU has with the rest of the region is LIAT. Only problem is that ANU accounted for a declining % of that airline's revenues as it became increasingly BGI focused. Maybe Gaston Browne should have paid more attention when LI gutted its northern routes, because now ANU's role as a regional hub has drastically declined.

In the interim the PM of SVD says that his only concern is connectivity for that island to BGI and POS and that he has 2 airlines, including the infamous one which had a 747 last year. ANU is angered by this and refuses to attend a CARICOM heads meeting (I presume on Zoom) scheduled for today, so when the rest of the region decides about what to do about LIAT (and presumably Guyana) ANU will not have a voice.

No government is going to step up to the plate and the private sector I dont think wants a headache. Who will want to deal with Gaston Browne, who ha sno money of his own, but who will tell a new carrier what to do. I can see ANU denying any Caribbean carrier increased route rights to replace LI. He has contempt for the small carriers and hostility towards BW.

And then LI staff are carrying that airline to court. Denied salary increases for years (sometimes even taking a cut) not being paid for months and now no funds for a severance package. They and other creditors will block a resurrected LI until their claims are satisfied. These breed of CARICOM governments (and for that matter the private sector) aren't an innovative lot so I see no resolution to this. However without LI there is no OECS, and even CARICOM is impaired.
 
Brickell305
Posts: 937
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Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Fri Jul 03, 2020 4:08 pm

caribny wrote:
As of now the PM of ANU and the PM of SVD seem to be fighting. ANU has no money (not in either the public nor private sectors) but insists that any replacement be based on that island. If not he threatens to pull ANU out of the OECS and CARICOM. His claim is that the only export that ANU has with the rest of the region is LIAT. Only problem is that ANU accounted for a declining % of that airline's revenues as it became increasingly BGI focused. Maybe Gaston Browne should have paid more attention when LI gutted its northern routes, because now ANU's role as a regional hub has drastically declined.

In the interim the PM of SVD says that his only concern is connectivity for that island to BGI and POS and that he has 2 airlines, including the infamous one which had a 747 last year. ANU is angered by this and refuses to attend a CARICOM heads meeting (I presume on Zoom) scheduled for today, so when the rest of the region decides about what to do about LIAT (and presumably Guyana) ANU will not have a voice.

No government is going to step up to the plate and the private sector I dont think wants a headache. Who will want to deal with Gaston Browne, who ha sno money of his own, but who will tell a new carrier what to do. I can see ANU denying any Caribbean carrier increased route rights to replace LI. He has contempt for the small carriers and hostility towards BW.

And then LI staff are carrying that airline to court. Denied salary increases for years (sometimes even taking a cut) not being paid for months and now no funds for a severance package. They and other creditors will block a resurrected LI until their claims are satisfied. These breed of CARICOM governments (and for that matter the private sector) aren't an innovative lot so I see no resolution to this. However without LI there is no OECS, and even CARICOM is impaired.

Gaston has no choice but to try to blame the other shareholders and implicitly accuse them of sabotage. The closure of LI is a political disaster of epic proportions and he has to make it seem as if it’s not his failure but the doing of Ralph and Mia. ANU has the most LI employees and if a liquidated LI can’t pay what is owed to the staff, Gaston will bear the brunt of the political fallout.

As you accurately pointed out, ANU is broke (as are the other shareholder governments) and as such does not have the money to credibly launch a startup replacement airline.

SVD has One Caribbean and that will have to do in terms of the connectivity they need, primarily to BGI (BW has POS covered).

The largest regional markets to/from BGI will likely be covered by BW and therefore they won’t need LI. It doesn’t take much to add a BGI tag to POS-SLU/SVD/GND. With a likely reduction in demand, adding BGI to these flights will help to fill planes.

ANU is the most heavily affected as there will be no replacement for employment or for connectivity. The loss of the LI hub might even result in less demand for ANU for non-regional flights as quite a few people will fly a route like LGW-ANU and then connect onward on LI to places like EIS, DOM, SXM, SKB, etc. It will be an interesting next few years for ANU.
 
gunnerman
Posts: 1103
Joined: Fri May 19, 2017 7:55 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Fri Jul 03, 2020 6:38 pm

Gaston Browne has a plan. He says that he has US$15m (borrowed from ALBA Bank last November) to invest in a new LIAT. He wants a slimmed down airline with 42 and 19-seat Twin-Otters with the current ATRs returned to lessors. All shareholder governments should write off landing and other fees owed to them and the staff and other creditors should take a hair cut to facilitate the reorganisation of LIAT. You can bet he wants the ANU base to remain. Let's see what the other shareholders have to say about this.
 
gunnerman
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Joined: Fri May 19, 2017 7:55 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Fri Jul 03, 2020 11:22 pm

The UK government has exempted the following Caribbean countries from its advice against ‘all but essential’ international travel. Visitors to these countries will not have to self-quarantine for 14 days on their return home. Note that this applies to England only as Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland are due to set out their own rules at a later date.

• Antigua & Barbuda
• Bahamas
• Barbados
• Cayman Islands
• Dominica
• Grenada
• Jamaica
• Martinique
• St Kitts and Nevis
• St Lucia
• St Vincent and The Grenadines
• Trinidad and Tobago
• Turks and Caicos Islands
 
caribny
Posts: 363
Joined: Sat Mar 16, 2019 1:47 am

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Sat Jul 04, 2020 6:32 am

gunnerman wrote:
Gaston Browne has a plan. He says that he has US$15m (borrowed from ALBA Bank last November) to invest in a new LIAT. He wants a slimmed down airline with 42 and 19-seat Twin-Otters with the current ATRs returned to lessors. All shareholder governments should write off landing and other fees owed to them and the staff and other creditors should take a hair cut to facilitate the reorganisation of LIAT. You can bet he wants the ANU base to remain. Let's see what the other shareholders have to say about this.



ANU can do as it wishes. LI 2020 will not be large enough to offset the direct/indirect jobs and economic activity that LIAT 1974 now provides. ANUs interest in LI has always been only about the ANU based jobs, so they ignored LI's gradual refocus of its operations around its BGI hub.

The other islands will do nothing. He will have to fund severance on his own as well as any other debts. Maybe CDB might help by writing down LIAT loans once the ATRs are sold. The only benefit he will get will be lower travel taxes and fees with the islands' need for intra regional travel. Strapped for revenue I doubt they will waive landing fees, except maybe SKB and DOM which might need this service most, and might offer this instead of investing hard cash.

SVG wants to promote their own airlines. BGI will work with any airline which doesnt demand concessions from them, other than reduced travel taxes which she is already willing to concede, and is in fact urging other Caribbean nations to do the same. SLU has been trying to get BGI to accept BW on its BGI SLU route for a long time, so this will finally occur. I bet that GND feels the same. SKB seems skeptical about Gaston's dream but hasn't ruled it out. SKB and ANU are "best friends" so they might provide some help, but not cash.

I am sure that no one will object and will provide landing rights if needed, but that's it. These islands have their own jobs programs to consider so aren't going to support ANU's. If this means that ANU leaves OECS/CARICOM so be it.

ANUs problem is that they live in the past. Long gone are the days when it is needed as a hub. BA now tags on other islands to sustain its ANU service, so no longer needs LI feed for this. SKB/NEV has excellent connectivity to the USA (Canada accessed via MIA outside of winter) plus BA tag on via ANU. DOM has seen improved connectivity thanks to Silver (formerly Seaborne) and Air Antilles/Winair. BW is sniffing around DOM as well, and so might now be incentivized to move forward, maybe adding SKB as well. The interesting thing about BW is that its CAA is Cat 1 so that it can add service to the US territories. USVI is reportedly interested.

So LI 2020 will have its challenges. The southern Caribbean doesnt need them and O&D service from ANU to the neighboring islands has tumbled in recent years thanks to high taxes and fees. The US territories will be all but off limits thanks to the ECAAs downgrading, so LI 2020 will not be able to expand service there. Clearly there aren't plans for service out of a BGI hub. So I see Gaston's dream being 100% funded by ANU and will be a service focused on providing O&D service ex ANU plus connectivity thru ANU from SKB, SXM and EIS down to SLU and BGI. He doesnt fly south of BGI as BW will swallow them up. I bet that Mia will want BW to use BGI as a focus destination with routes to SLU, GEO, SVD and GND, in addition to its POS/KIN service.
 
caribny
Posts: 363
Joined: Sat Mar 16, 2019 1:47 am

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Sat Jul 04, 2020 6:51 am

It will also not surprise me if BW moves its KIN BGI from 2-3x weekly and then moves its BGI POS to all ATR to allow tag on service to other islands to fill the LIAT gap. BGI will need a reliable partner to service its regional markets as these are the 3rd largest source markets behind the UK and the USA. It isnt going to be Ralph Gonsalves little projects, except to SVD.

Of course all this depends on whether BW still has the additional ATRs on order. Their existing ATRs will become busy once the airbridge fully recovers.
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