Gaston Browne has a plan. He says that he has US$15m (borrowed from ALBA Bank last November) to invest in a new LIAT. He wants a slimmed down airline with 42 and 19-seat Twin-Otters with the current ATRs returned to lessors. All shareholder governments should write off landing and other fees owed to them and the staff and other creditors should take a hair cut to facilitate the reorganisation of LIAT. You can bet he wants the ANU base to remain. Let's see what the other shareholders have to say about this.
ANU can do as it wishes. LI 2020 will not be large enough to offset the direct/indirect jobs and economic activity that LIAT 1974 now provides. ANUs interest in LI has always been only about the ANU based jobs, so they ignored LI's gradual refocus of its operations around its BGI hub.
The other islands will do nothing. He will have to fund severance on his own as well as any other debts. Maybe CDB might help by writing down LIAT loans once the ATRs are sold. The only benefit he will get will be lower travel taxes and fees with the islands' need for intra regional travel. Strapped for revenue I doubt they will waive landing fees, except maybe SKB and DOM which might need this service most, and might offer this instead of investing hard cash.
SVG wants to promote their own airlines. BGI will work with any airline which doesnt demand concessions from them, other than reduced travel taxes which she is already willing to concede, and is in fact urging other Caribbean nations to do the same. SLU has been trying to get BGI to accept BW on its BGI SLU route for a long time, so this will finally occur. I bet that GND feels the same. SKB seems skeptical about Gaston's dream but hasn't ruled it out. SKB and ANU are "best friends" so they might provide some help, but not cash.
I am sure that no one will object and will provide landing rights if needed, but that's it. These islands have their own jobs programs to consider so aren't going to support ANU's. If this means that ANU leaves OECS/CARICOM so be it.
ANUs problem is that they live in the past. Long gone are the days when it is needed as a hub. BA now tags on other islands to sustain its ANU service, so no longer needs LI feed for this. SKB/NEV has excellent connectivity to the USA (Canada accessed via MIA outside of winter) plus BA tag on via ANU. DOM has seen improved connectivity thanks to Silver (formerly Seaborne) and Air Antilles/Winair. BW is sniffing around DOM as well, and so might now be incentivized to move forward, maybe adding SKB as well. The interesting thing about BW is that its CAA is Cat 1 so that it can add service to the US territories. USVI is reportedly interested.
So LI 2020 will have its challenges. The southern Caribbean doesnt need them and O&D service from ANU to the neighboring islands has tumbled in recent years thanks to high taxes and fees. The US territories will be all but off limits thanks to the ECAAs downgrading, so LI 2020 will not be able to expand service there. Clearly there aren't plans for service out of a BGI hub. So I see Gaston's dream being 100% funded by ANU and will be a service focused on providing O&D service ex ANU plus connectivity thru ANU from SKB, SXM and EIS down to SLU and BGI. He doesnt fly south of BGI as BW will swallow them up. I bet that Mia will want BW to use BGI as a focus destination with routes to SLU, GEO, SVD and GND, in addition to its POS/KIN service.