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caribny
Posts: 475
Joined: Sat Mar 16, 2019 1:47 am

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Sat Jul 04, 2020 6:51 am

It will also not surprise me if BW moves its KIN BGI from 2-3x weekly and then moves its BGI POS to all ATR to allow tag on service to other islands to fill the LIAT gap. BGI will need a reliable partner to service its regional markets as these are the 3rd largest source markets behind the UK and the USA. It isnt going to be Ralph Gonsalves little projects, except to SVD.

Of course all this depends on whether BW still has the additional ATRs on order. Their existing ATRs will become busy once the airbridge fully recovers.
 
BWA900
Posts: 74
Joined: Wed May 14, 2014 11:20 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Sat Jul 04, 2020 7:39 pm

Barbados Prime Minister Mia Mottley, has revealed that six airlines have already shown interest in replacing the soon to be liquidated regional airline.

https://barbadostoday.bb/2020/07/04/fli ... -of-weeks/
Flown: A300 A319 A320 A321 A333 A343 A359 A388 AT72 AT76 B712 B735 B736 B737 B738 B739 B38M B744 B752 B753 B763 B772ER B772LR B77W B788 B789 CRJ2 CRJ7 CRJ9 DH8A DH8B DH8D E145 E170 E190
 
gunnerman
Posts: 1147
Joined: Fri May 19, 2017 7:55 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Sun Jul 05, 2020 6:41 pm

A rift has emerged between Mia Mottley and Gaston Browne. Mottley appears unconcerned about LIAT's failure and is looking to six airlines, namely SVG Air, One Caribbean, Caribbean Airlines, InterCaribbean, Silver Airways and Air Antilles, to provide regional flights although no details are available. On the other hand Browne wants to create LIAT 2020 and does not believe that "all kinds of little rinky dinky airlines within the region can take the place of LIAT".
 
caribny
Posts: 475
Joined: Sat Mar 16, 2019 1:47 am

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Mon Jul 06, 2020 1:46 am

And there is a third element. Ralph Gonsalves who wants to promote one of those "rinky dinky" airlines that some Vincentians swear that he is part owner of. In the meantime people in Antigua want to know why Gaston has money for a new airline when he never provided any assistance to furloughed hotel workers that occurred in the other OECS. And what of all of the creditors, included LIATs former employees?
 
caribbean484
Posts: 904
Joined: Sat Jan 06, 2007 1:57 am

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Mon Jul 06, 2020 2:03 am

gunnerman wrote:
A rift has emerged between Mia Mottley and Gaston Browne. Mottley appears unconcerned about LIAT's failure and is looking to six airlines, namely SVG Air, One Caribbean, Caribbean Airlines, InterCaribbean, Silver Airways and Air Antilles, to provide regional flights although no details are available. On the other hand Browne wants to create LIAT 2020 and does not believe that "all kinds of little rinky dinky airlines within the region can take the place of LIAT".


caribny wrote:
ANU can do as it wishes. LI 2020 will not be large enough to offset the direct/indirect jobs and economic activity that LIAT 1974 now provides. ANUs interest in LI has always been only about the ANU based jobs, so they ignored LI's gradual refocus of its operations around its BGI hub.


Gaston Browne is in a fight for his political life. He made numerous promises to the employees at LI for them to consider pay cuts and other concessions to keep the airline flying. Now he is in a bind and is blaming everyone for not getting his employment project back up running. The fact remains that LI is not viable in its current form and unless real changes are made, the airline cannot continue as is. Now that Gonzales and Mottley are not in the mode to support his job program he is angry? He is sounding more of a fool each passing time as there is no way the Governments have the money to support LI, and I bet he does not have the US15-20m he claims to keep the airline afloat.
LI only needs half of the ATR fleet at the moment and really needs to slim down its route network. The fact that the airline said that POS-SLU is not profitable for them and CAL can make money on the route shows that there are serious cost problems within the airline.

As we noticed none of the Governments are taking responsibility for the state of intra-regional travel, the absurdly high taxes that are levied on travel. Airlines can charge a round trip between POS-BGI at US$80 but by the time you add taxes you are up to US$220, when then you can fly to MIA for the same price. Basically, the government all saw LI as a cash cow somehow and continued with the ridiculous taxes and fees, justifying it by saying airport improvements are needed. The more they are told to cust the taxes and fees the more they added despite travel being down.

Now that LI is in liquidation state, they are looking into their tax structure to entice new airlines to take up the slack that may be left by LI. CAL already wrote to the regional governments that they intend to continue their regional expansion when the boarders are reopened. Others should be given the incentive the upgrade their service and bring in affordable airfares into the market.

caribny wrote:
Of course all this depends on whether BW still has the additional ATRs on order. Their existing ATRs will become busy once the airbridge fully recovers.


Aircraft are still on order but who knows how things pan out, but with LI not there this is an opportune time to take advantage of the situation.

BW will be flying KIN-MIA-KIN from Thursday daily, no FLL service going forward. The new COO mentioned that the airline wants to consolidate its cargo operations to MIA as it is their logistics center and maintaining their business traveler preferences. I'm not sure if the POS-FLL route with be transferred to MIA also, but the way things are that may be the case.

DL has permanently dropped JKF-KIN, which meant that this route was a loss leader for them, despite being told otherwise. It will be interesting to see if AA will maintain JFK-GEO service going forward also.
All ah we is one family
 
Brickell305
Posts: 1056
Joined: Sat Jun 24, 2017 2:07 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Mon Jul 06, 2020 2:30 am

caribbean484 wrote:
gunnerman wrote:
A rift has emerged between Mia Mottley and Gaston Browne. Mottley appears unconcerned about LIAT's failure and is looking to six airlines, namely SVG Air, One Caribbean, Caribbean Airlines, InterCaribbean, Silver Airways and Air Antilles, to provide regional flights although no details are available. On the other hand Browne wants to create LIAT 2020 and does not believe that "all kinds of little rinky dinky airlines within the region can take the place of LIAT".


caribny wrote:
ANU can do as it wishes. LI 2020 will not be large enough to offset the direct/indirect jobs and economic activity that LIAT 1974 now provides. ANUs interest in LI has always been only about the ANU based jobs, so they ignored LI's gradual refocus of its operations around its BGI hub.


Gaston Browne is in a fight for his political life. He made numerous promises to the employees at LI for them to consider pay cuts and other concessions to keep the airline flying. Now he is in a bind and is blaming everyone for not getting his employment project back up running. The fact remains that LI is not viable in its current form and unless real changes are made, the airline cannot continue as is. Now that Gonzales and Mottley are not in the mode to support his job program he is angry? He is sounding more of a fool each passing time as there is no way the Governments have the money to support LI, and I bet he does not have the US15-20m he claims to keep the airline afloat.
LI only needs half of the ATR fleet at the moment and really needs to slim down its route network. The fact that the airline said that POS-SLU is not profitable for them and CAL can make money on the route shows that there are serious cost problems within the airline.

As we noticed none of the Governments are taking responsibility for the state of intra-regional travel, the absurdly high taxes that are levied on travel. Airlines can charge a round trip between POS-BGI at US$80 but by the time you add taxes you are up to US$220, when then you can fly to MIA for the same price. Basically, the government all saw LI as a cash cow somehow and continued with the ridiculous taxes and fees, justifying it by saying airport improvements are needed. The more they are told to cust the taxes and fees the more they added despite travel being down.

Now that LI is in liquidation state, they are looking into their tax structure to entice new airlines to take up the slack that may be left by LI. CAL already wrote to the regional governments that they intend to continue their regional expansion when the boarders are reopened. Others should be given the incentive the upgrade their service and bring in affordable airfares into the market.

caribny wrote:
Of course all this depends on whether BW still has the additional ATRs on order. Their existing ATRs will become busy once the airbridge fully recovers.


Aircraft are still on order but who knows how things pan out, but with LI not there this is an opportune time to take advantage of the situation.

BW will be flying KIN-MIA-KIN from Thursday daily, no FLL service going forward. The new COO mentioned that the airline wants to consolidate its cargo operations to MIA as it is their logistics center and maintaining their business traveler preferences. I'm not sure if the POS-FLL route with be transferred to MIA also, but the way things are that may be the case.

DL has permanently dropped JKF-KIN, which meant that this route was a loss leader for them, despite being told otherwise. It will be interesting to see if AA will maintain JFK-GEO service going forward also.

I figured they would consolidate So. Fla. It was just a matter of deciding on MIA or FLL. POS does better to MIA, KIN did better to FLL. It was basically deciding whether the better performance of POS-MIA could buttress KIN-MIA more than KIN-FLL could buttress POS-FLL. Post COVID, there simply isn’t enough traffic to justify two So. Fla. stations.

Re LI, Gaston needs a reality check and then some. There will be no new LI. ANU doesn’t have the money to pull it off on its own. If he does start a new airline, I give it 6 months at most. The remaining Caribbean airlines, noted by Mia, will move in as necessary and pick up the slack. Gaston should save whatever money has and use it to pay off the severed staff.
 
caribny
Posts: 475
Joined: Sat Mar 16, 2019 1:47 am

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Mon Jul 06, 2020 8:07 am

If BW is exiting FLL KIN, which is the VFR market, and consolidating around MIA this means that they are contemplating not returning to FLL POS. MIA KIN is going to be hard for them as Jamaican business people support AA. The FLL KIN VFR will just stay with B6 or NK. I assume that cargo will be the major focus because they aren't going to get it from the passenger loads.

Gaston is living a fantasy. Gaston just doesnt understand that no one in OECS wants an airline other than him. While he was content to let his hotel workers starve they weren't, so they no longer have the funds to support LIAT when they now have mouths to feed. Even as borders reopen many will still remain unemployed so governments will still have to be committed to social supports, while Gaston ignores this occupation so that he can fight down to have LIAT based in ANU. KIN used to have a big aviation center when JM was around. Now its a shadow of itself given the negligible service by BW. That is life.

Yes the loss of LIAT will bring challenges to intra regional travel as they offered seamless travel from SJU all the way down to GEO, stopping at almost every airport in between. I doubt that anyone else will take on that obligation as its this route complexity which contributed to LI's problems. Maybe BW can work out something with WM using SXM as a hub for the northern routes, allowing them to offer more limited service to those islands.
 
caribny
Posts: 475
Joined: Sat Mar 16, 2019 1:47 am

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Mon Jul 06, 2020 8:14 am

I also assume that T&T borders remain closed until at least next month as elections are on August 10th, so that holds up any involvement of BW to replace LI in the southern Caribbean. Pity as many islands were looking to intra regional tourism as a stop gap to fill anticipated reduced travel out of the USA.
 
ryby92
Posts: 39
Joined: Sun Dec 08, 2019 7:34 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Mon Jul 06, 2020 3:47 pm

caribbean484 wrote:
gunnerman wrote:
A rift has emerged between Mia Mottley and Gaston Browne. Mottley appears unconcerned about LIAT's failure and is looking to six airlines, namely SVG Air, One Caribbean, Caribbean Airlines, InterCaribbean, Silver Airways and Air Antilles, to provide regional flights although no details are available. On the other hand Browne wants to create LIAT 2020 and does not believe that "all kinds of little rinky dinky airlines within the region can take the place of LIAT".


caribny wrote:
ANU can do as it wishes. LI 2020 will not be large enough to offset the direct/indirect jobs and economic activity that LIAT 1974 now provides. ANUs interest in LI has always been only about the ANU based jobs, so they ignored LI's gradual refocus of its operations around its BGI hub.


Gaston Browne is in a fight for his political life. He made numerous promises to the employees at LI for them to consider pay cuts and other concessions to keep the airline flying. Now he is in a bind and is blaming everyone for not getting his employment project back up running. The fact remains that LI is not viable in its current form and unless real changes are made, the airline cannot continue as is. Now that Gonzales and Mottley are not in the mode to support his job program he is angry? He is sounding more of a fool each passing time as there is no way the Governments have the money to support LI, and I bet he does not have the US15-20m he claims to keep the airline afloat.
LI only needs half of the ATR fleet at the moment and really needs to slim down its route network. The fact that the airline said that POS-SLU is not profitable for them and CAL can make money on the route shows that there are serious cost problems within the airline.

As we noticed none of the Governments are taking responsibility for the state of intra-regional travel, the absurdly high taxes that are levied on travel. Airlines can charge a round trip between POS-BGI at US$80 but by the time you add taxes you are up to US$220, when then you can fly to MIA for the same price. Basically, the government all saw LI as a cash cow somehow and continued with the ridiculous taxes and fees, justifying it by saying airport improvements are needed. The more they are told to cust the taxes and fees the more they added despite travel being down.

Now that LI is in liquidation state, they are looking into their tax structure to entice new airlines to take up the slack that may be left by LI. CAL already wrote to the regional governments that they intend to continue their regional expansion when the boarders are reopened. Others should be given the incentive the upgrade their service and bring in affordable airfares into the market.

caribny wrote:
Of course all this depends on whether BW still has the additional ATRs on order. Their existing ATRs will become busy once the airbridge fully recovers.


Aircraft are still on order but who knows how things pan out, but with LI not there this is an opportune time to take advantage of the situation.

BW will be flying KIN-MIA-KIN from Thursday daily, no FLL service going forward. The new COO mentioned that the airline wants to consolidate its cargo operations to MIA as it is their logistics center and maintaining their business traveler preferences. I'm not sure if the POS-FLL route with be transferred to MIA also, but the way things are that may be the case.

DL has permanently dropped JKF-KIN, which meant that this route was a loss leader for them, despite being told otherwise. It will be interesting to see if AA will maintain JFK-GEO service going forward also.


So far AA JFK-GEO is loaded with new times as follows:

AA 138 2:00 PM JFK 8:49 PM GEO 738
AA 2469 7:48 AM GEO 12:59 PM JFK 738

MIA- GEO loaded as follows:

AA 1513 5:35 PM MIA 10:51PM GEO 738
AA 1512 1:27 AM GEO 5:15AM MIA 738

This is for random date of December 19.
 
maverick4002
Posts: 293
Joined: Sun Jul 12, 2015 2:14 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Mon Jul 06, 2020 4:57 pm

ryby92 wrote:
caribbean484 wrote:
gunnerman wrote:
A rift has emerged between Mia Mottley and Gaston Browne. Mottley appears unconcerned about LIAT's failure and is looking to six airlines, namely SVG Air, One Caribbean, Caribbean Airlines, InterCaribbean, Silver Airways and Air Antilles, to provide regional flights although no details are available. On the other hand Browne wants to create LIAT 2020 and does not believe that "all kinds of little rinky dinky airlines within the region can take the place of LIAT".


caribny wrote:
ANU can do as it wishes. LI 2020 will not be large enough to offset the direct/indirect jobs and economic activity that LIAT 1974 now provides. ANUs interest in LI has always been only about the ANU based jobs, so they ignored LI's gradual refocus of its operations around its BGI hub.


Gaston Browne is in a fight for his political life. He made numerous promises to the employees at LI for them to consider pay cuts and other concessions to keep the airline flying. Now he is in a bind and is blaming everyone for not getting his employment project back up running. The fact remains that LI is not viable in its current form and unless real changes are made, the airline cannot continue as is. Now that Gonzales and Mottley are not in the mode to support his job program he is angry? He is sounding more of a fool each passing time as there is no way the Governments have the money to support LI, and I bet he does not have the US15-20m he claims to keep the airline afloat.
LI only needs half of the ATR fleet at the moment and really needs to slim down its route network. The fact that the airline said that POS-SLU is not profitable for them and CAL can make money on the route shows that there are serious cost problems within the airline.

As we noticed none of the Governments are taking responsibility for the state of intra-regional travel, the absurdly high taxes that are levied on travel. Airlines can charge a round trip between POS-BGI at US$80 but by the time you add taxes you are up to US$220, when then you can fly to MIA for the same price. Basically, the government all saw LI as a cash cow somehow and continued with the ridiculous taxes and fees, justifying it by saying airport improvements are needed. The more they are told to cust the taxes and fees the more they added despite travel being down.

Now that LI is in liquidation state, they are looking into their tax structure to entice new airlines to take up the slack that may be left by LI. CAL already wrote to the regional governments that they intend to continue their regional expansion when the boarders are reopened. Others should be given the incentive the upgrade their service and bring in affordable airfares into the market.

caribny wrote:
Of course all this depends on whether BW still has the additional ATRs on order. Their existing ATRs will become busy once the airbridge fully recovers.


Aircraft are still on order but who knows how things pan out, but with LI not there this is an opportune time to take advantage of the situation.

BW will be flying KIN-MIA-KIN from Thursday daily, no FLL service going forward. The new COO mentioned that the airline wants to consolidate its cargo operations to MIA as it is their logistics center and maintaining their business traveler preferences. I'm not sure if the POS-FLL route with be transferred to MIA also, but the way things are that may be the case.

DL has permanently dropped JKF-KIN, which meant that this route was a loss leader for them, despite being told otherwise. It will be interesting to see if AA will maintain JFK-GEO service going forward also.


So far AA JFK-GEO is loaded with new times as follows:

AA 138 2:00 PM JFK 8:49 PM GEO 738
AA 2469 7:48 AM GEO 12:59 PM JFK 738

MIA- GEO loaded as follows:

AA 1513 5:35 PM MIA 10:51PM GEO 738
AA 1512 1:27 AM GEO 5:15AM MIA 738

This is for random date of December 19.


I wonder why they have JFK remaining overnight and not an immediate turn like Miami?
 
Brickell305
Posts: 1056
Joined: Sat Jun 24, 2017 2:07 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Mon Jul 06, 2020 5:44 pm

maverick4002 wrote:
ryby92 wrote:
caribbean484 wrote:



Gaston Browne is in a fight for his political life. He made numerous promises to the employees at LI for them to consider pay cuts and other concessions to keep the airline flying. Now he is in a bind and is blaming everyone for not getting his employment project back up running. The fact remains that LI is not viable in its current form and unless real changes are made, the airline cannot continue as is. Now that Gonzales and Mottley are not in the mode to support his job program he is angry? He is sounding more of a fool each passing time as there is no way the Governments have the money to support LI, and I bet he does not have the US15-20m he claims to keep the airline afloat.
LI only needs half of the ATR fleet at the moment and really needs to slim down its route network. The fact that the airline said that POS-SLU is not profitable for them and CAL can make money on the route shows that there are serious cost problems within the airline.

As we noticed none of the Governments are taking responsibility for the state of intra-regional travel, the absurdly high taxes that are levied on travel. Airlines can charge a round trip between POS-BGI at US$80 but by the time you add taxes you are up to US$220, when then you can fly to MIA for the same price. Basically, the government all saw LI as a cash cow somehow and continued with the ridiculous taxes and fees, justifying it by saying airport improvements are needed. The more they are told to cust the taxes and fees the more they added despite travel being down.

Now that LI is in liquidation state, they are looking into their tax structure to entice new airlines to take up the slack that may be left by LI. CAL already wrote to the regional governments that they intend to continue their regional expansion when the boarders are reopened. Others should be given the incentive the upgrade their service and bring in affordable airfares into the market.



Aircraft are still on order but who knows how things pan out, but with LI not there this is an opportune time to take advantage of the situation.

BW will be flying KIN-MIA-KIN from Thursday daily, no FLL service going forward. The new COO mentioned that the airline wants to consolidate its cargo operations to MIA as it is their logistics center and maintaining their business traveler preferences. I'm not sure if the POS-FLL route with be transferred to MIA also, but the way things are that may be the case.

DL has permanently dropped JKF-KIN, which meant that this route was a loss leader for them, despite being told otherwise. It will be interesting to see if AA will maintain JFK-GEO service going forward also.


So far AA JFK-GEO is loaded with new times as follows:

AA 138 2:00 PM JFK 8:49 PM GEO 738
AA 2469 7:48 AM GEO 12:59 PM JFK 738

MIA- GEO loaded as follows:

AA 1513 5:35 PM MIA 10:51PM GEO 738
AA 1512 1:27 AM GEO 5:15AM MIA 738

This is for random date of December 19.


I wonder why they have JFK remaining overnight and not an immediate turn like Miami?


Just venturing a guess. It could be that on a full schedule, the plane was needed back in JFK by early morning to fly other routes so that was prioritized over a "convenient" flight time for pax. Now, on a reduced schedule, they can afford to have a plane sit in GEO for a bit longer so might have thought it better to prioritize pax preference, especially with stronger competition on the JFK route in a time of overall reduced demand. MIA on the other hand, is loaded as more or less a full schedule for 738s in December so the same scheduling balance that was required before, remains.
 
ryby92
Posts: 39
Joined: Sun Dec 08, 2019 7:34 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Mon Jul 06, 2020 6:25 pm

Brickell305 wrote:
maverick4002 wrote:
ryby92 wrote:

So far AA JFK-GEO is loaded with new times as follows:

AA 138 2:00 PM JFK 8:49 PM GEO 738
AA 2469 7:48 AM GEO 12:59 PM JFK 738

MIA- GEO loaded as follows:

AA 1513 5:35 PM MIA 10:51PM GEO 738
AA 1512 1:27 AM GEO 5:15AM MIA 738

This is for random date of December 19.


I wonder why they have JFK remaining overnight and not an immediate turn like Miami?


Just venturing a guess. It could be that on a full schedule, the plane was needed back in JFK by early morning to fly other routes so that was prioritized over a "convenient" flight time for pax. Now, on a reduced schedule, they can afford to have a plane sit in GEO for a bit longer so might have thought it better to prioritize pax preference, especially with stronger competition on the JFK route in a time of overall reduced demand. MIA on the other hand, is loaded as more or less a full schedule for 738s in December so the same scheduling balance that was required before, remains.


I tend to agree. Schedule is more customer friendly on both ends and the return to JFK is timed to more closely match the proposed B6 return of 07:20 AM.

The MBJ and SJO schedules are also loaded indicating that at least for now no reductions are in store.

On the other hand, I won't be surprised if Delta cuts back permanently more JFK - Caribbean flights. already KIN gone. They have never been strong in Eastern Caribbean historically. And I won't be surprised if AA added a few more flights going forward.
 
caribny
Posts: 475
Joined: Sat Mar 16, 2019 1:47 am

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Tue Jul 07, 2020 11:17 am

Brickell305 wrote:
maverick4002 wrote:
ryby92 wrote:

So far AA JFK-GEO is loaded with new times as follows:

AA 138 2:00 PM JFK 8:49 PM GEO 738
AA 2469 7:48 AM GEO 12:59 PM JFK 738

MIA- GEO loaded as follows:

AA 1513 5:35 PM MIA 10:51PM GEO 738
AA 1512 1:27 AM GEO 5:15AM MIA 738

This is for random date of December 19.


I wonder why they have JFK remaining overnight and not an immediate turn like Miami?


Just venturing a guess. It could be that on a full schedule, the plane was needed back in JFK by early morning to fly other routes so that was prioritized over a "convenient" flight time for pax. Now, on a reduced schedule, they can afford to have a plane sit in GEO for a bit longer so might have thought it better to prioritize pax preference, especially with stronger competition on the JFK route in a time of overall reduced demand. MIA on the other hand, is loaded as more or less a full schedule for 738s in December so the same scheduling balance that was required before, remains.



The JFK GEO isnt a VFR preference. They prefer the early morning arrivals into GEO and an afternoon out of GEO. This to allow for people travelling to more distant regions of Guyana. Note that GEO isnt like most Caribbean islands where its a 20 mile drive home. For some its over 100 miles. Guyanese also prefer the afternoon return as it allows more time with friends and family.

People will adjust based on brand preferences (i.e. fare levels and a preference for AA, B6, or BW) but it isnt what passengers will prefer. Of course this depends on what other carriers do as COVID 19 protocols and impact on crews will have impact on scheduling. Note that time spent at the terminal will be longer because of new health protocols.

Of course this is December. No one knows what passenger behavior will be, but based on what is now happening at KIN the VFR isnt exactly galloping back, unlike what we see for the DR. What happens in GEO will also depend on what the current post election environment will be. Guyana is a very tribal society and there has still not been a final resolution of the election after 4 months. This because elections in Guyana are mainly based on tribe. If there is any threat of post election violence people will insist on daytime travel and none of those AA flights allow this.

And yes I deliberately use the term "tribe" instead of ethnicity, as the political barriers are very hard and can get quite fierce.
 
baje427
Posts: 815
Joined: Mon Aug 01, 2011 12:42 am

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Wed Jul 08, 2020 6:11 pm

I heard the Antigua PM has asked Liat staff to accept s 30% pay cut and to give a response by Friday. Honestly I think he is being a bit irrational with the BGI government no longer being able to support LI its days are numbered. The airlines willing to take up the slack should suffice. Travel numbers will be low and the economic recovery in the region will take perhaps a decade or more.
 
Brickell305
Posts: 1056
Joined: Sat Jun 24, 2017 2:07 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Wed Jul 08, 2020 6:28 pm

baje427 wrote:
I heard the Antigua PM has asked Liat staff to accept s 30% pay cut and to give a response by Friday. Honestly I think he is being a bit irrational with the BGI government no longer being able to support LI its days are numbered. The airlines willing to take up the slack should suffice. Travel numbers will be low and the economic recovery in the region will take perhaps a decade or more.

He actually asked them to take a 50% cut on severance and other money owed to them. They have however agreed to a 30% cut on severance.
 
LimaFoxTango
Posts: 978
Joined: Wed Jun 16, 2004 11:33 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Wed Jul 08, 2020 9:18 pm

Brickell305 wrote:
baje427 wrote:
I heard the Antigua PM has asked Liat staff to accept s 30% pay cut and to give a response by Friday. Honestly I think he is being a bit irrational with the BGI government no longer being able to support LI its days are numbered. The airlines willing to take up the slack should suffice. Travel numbers will be low and the economic recovery in the region will take perhaps a decade or more.

He actually asked them to take a 50% cut on severance and other money owed to them. They have however agreed to a 30% cut on severance.


The staff hasn't agreed to anything. PM Browne proposed a 50% cut, however a counter proposal was suggested at 30%. No formal acceptance on either side was agreed. Whatever is agreed upon still has to go back to Mia and Ralph and I believe they'll still shoot it down. Liat 1974 Ltd is dead any which way.
You are said to be a good pilot when your take-off's equal your landings.
 
Brickell305
Posts: 1056
Joined: Sat Jun 24, 2017 2:07 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Wed Jul 08, 2020 11:06 pm

LimaFoxTango wrote:
Brickell305 wrote:
baje427 wrote:
I heard the Antigua PM has asked Liat staff to accept s 30% pay cut and to give a response by Friday. Honestly I think he is being a bit irrational with the BGI government no longer being able to support LI its days are numbered. The airlines willing to take up the slack should suffice. Travel numbers will be low and the economic recovery in the region will take perhaps a decade or more.

He actually asked them to take a 50% cut on severance and other money owed to them. They have however agreed to a 30% cut on severance.


The staff hasn't agreed to anything. PM Browne proposed a 50% cut, however a counter proposal was suggested at 30%. No formal acceptance on either side was agreed. Whatever is agreed upon still has to go back to Mia and Ralph and I believe they'll still shoot it down. Liat 1974 Ltd is dead any which way.

I agree. Gaston should focus his efforts on finding money to pay staff in full. There are staff who are near retirement age for whom any form of haircut is a non-starter. Why use the money that is on hand to attempt to start up a new airline which is also likely to be a money pit and send people home half-empty handed in the process?
 
LimaFoxTango
Posts: 978
Joined: Wed Jun 16, 2004 11:33 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Thu Jul 09, 2020 4:09 am

Brickell305 wrote:
LimaFoxTango wrote:
Brickell305 wrote:
He actually asked them to take a 50% cut on severance and other money owed to them. They have however agreed to a 30% cut on severance.


The staff hasn't agreed to anything. PM Browne proposed a 50% cut, however a counter proposal was suggested at 30%. No formal acceptance on either side was agreed. Whatever is agreed upon still has to go back to Mia and Ralph and I believe they'll still shoot it down. Liat 1974 Ltd is dead any which way.

I agree. Gaston should focus his efforts on finding money to pay staff in full. There are staff who are near retirement age for whom any form of haircut is a non-starter. Why use the money that is on hand to attempt to start up a new airline which is also likely to be a money pit and send people home half-empty handed in the process?


There's no money to pay staff in full. If this offer is not accepted and Liat 1974 Ltd dies, the severance goes with it. The shareholder governments are under no legal obligation to pay out any severance thereafter. What ever money Gaston is able to muster up will go to Liat 2020 Ltd, Antigua Airways or whatever name he comes up with.
You are said to be a good pilot when your take-off's equal your landings.
 
gunnerman
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Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Thu Jul 09, 2020 10:48 am

Although Gaston says he has US$15m he won't be able to use it to pay off creditors or make severance payments as it's a loan for the setting up of LIAT 2020. So, any payments must come out of the public purse - which that someone else will be deprived of funds. Probably the best thing is to renegotiate this loan to provide the financing for existing carriers to serve Antigua and Barbuda.
 
trintocan
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Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Thu Jul 09, 2020 5:04 pm

The COVID-19 crisis has caused major upheaval to global aviation and the Caribbean has not been spared. We now see that LI have been brought to their knees and ultimately their demise. While many discussions continue as to what to do next about the fallen flag, we should re-evaluate how we got here in the first place.

LI had a fundamental problem in that they were headquartered in ANU but the majority of their business was elsewhere. The Leeward Islands have increasingly been interlinked by airlines like Inter Caribbean Airways, Air Sunshine and WinAir using smaller planes which better suit the small island markets. These airlines also tend to fly relatively low-frequency services (WinAir is somewhat an exception) which again matched the demand. LI with larger ATRs and a high-frequency operation profile were finding few routes which worked for them so over time they dropped routes and frequencies in the Leewards. AS a result their traffic through ANU dropped. Historically ANU was seen as a hub to the Leewards but this too has declined as places like SKB now enjoy international flights and SXM emerged as a strong competitor with a wider range of international flights and WinAir to provide feed. Flights into ANU by, for instance, BA serve other tag-ons and so they do not need LI to feed them as much. BA in fact competed with LI by carrying passengers on their regional tag-on flights through UVF and ANU. ANU now faces huge job losses due to LI's closure and this is becoming a major political scandal.

If we turn to BGI, the Windwards and GEO we find that LI's model worked far better given the larger markets and this area generated much of their traffic. BGI traditionally relied on LI to feed international flights but, with its tourist industry becoming as large and robust as it is, the flights can stand on their own. The few flights which were less able to do so have been operated in combination with other islands (e.g. DE's flights). SVD and DOM relied heavily on LI for air access although the former now has a variety of international flights out of its new Argyle Airport. SVD also has homegrown carriers like SVG Air which link the Grenadines to each other, SVD itself and BGI. LI's last service to the Grenadines was to CIW, a route to GND and BGI which ended in 2011.

We now look at POS and see the major dilemma that LI faced. POS is the largest market in the Eastern Caribbean and generates a high level of business and level travel along with air cargo. It is also a market with growth potential, moreso than other islands. As a result, LI became increasingly dependent on POS traffic for their survival. In doing so, however, they came into direct competition with Caribbean Airlines and their narrower POS-centric focus. The two airlines compete from POS to BGI, ANU, GND, SVD, SLU and GEO (BW) / OGL (LI). On most of these routes BW rules the roost (SVD is the main exception). BW, despite many problems of their own, are generally considered a superior airline to LI and their loyalty programmes mean many in POS prefer to use BW whenever possible. LI thus ended up needing POS more than POS arguably needed them (I think that the comments of some that POS does not need LI altogether are somewhat off the mark). POS has been unwilling to contribute financially to LI outside of a closer arrangement with BW, something which has been opposed by ANU and BGI.

We now see that ANU is arguing that a replacement airline to LI needs to be based there to safeguard jobs and it wants money spent to ensure this. BGI is not willing to capitalise a new ANU-based airline but instead would help other airlines currently serving it to restore some of the links. SVD is prepared to work with their own airlines. Only a wider CARICOM solution would work but this would need POS' engagement. POS as mentioned is not willing to spend money on a regional carrier per se, a hangover from the old days of BWIA when the T&T Government shouldered heavy losses as that airline flew internationally from several other islands, none of whom contributed financially. POS also has BW and in particular the TAB airbridge to contend with. The only way this would happen is with a BW tie-up which is anathema to the main shareholders. The issue is, what choices are there?

It is undoubtedly a terrible time for LI's staff. I hope a solution is found soon.

Trintocan.
Hop to it, fly for life!
 
gunnerman
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Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Thu Jul 09, 2020 6:08 pm

Gaston has recently admitted that LI was overstaffed, so he's also admitting that his government (and the other shareholder governments) failed to properly manage LI. Having said that, we should think of the staff who might get no compensation for their job loss.

LI did have some good traffic out of BGI, such as OGL which was double-daily. When traffic picks up passengers won't want to transit via POS. I hope that some sensible arrangement can be made, e.g. BW to establish a base there and operate profitable routes using perhaps the two ATRs owned by LI. I suspect that the bank will be happy to allow that instead of having the aggravation of seizing the aircraft and disposing of them.
 
caribny
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Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Fri Jul 10, 2020 3:32 pm

gunnerman wrote:
Gaston has recently admitted that LI was overstaffed, so he's also admitting that his government (and the other shareholder governments) failed to properly manage LI. Having said that, we should think of the staff who might get no compensation for their job loss.

LI did have some good traffic out of BGI, such as OGL which was double-daily. When traffic picks up passengers won't want to transit via POS. I hope that some sensible arrangement can be made, e.g. BW to establish a base there and operate profitable routes using perhaps the two ATRs owned by LI. I suspect that the bank will be happy to allow that instead of having the aggravation of seizing the aircraft and disposing of them.



BW has told Gonsalves that they can add 2 more ATRs quickly. I can see BW setting up a focus in BGI adding flights to SLU, GND and GEO/OGL. The Vincy airlines will handle BGI SVD. Maybe BW might add operations to OGL, as if they dont someone else will. I can see a Guyanese carrier adding BGI and POS out of OGL just as they already fly to Suriname if BW doesnt plug that hole.

Where LI will be missed will be serving that market of people travelling between the north and south parts of their route structure. That EIS BGI route must have been doing well enough to LI to reactivate it. A fair % of LIATs SKB market consists of people travelling south of ANU given that its the ECCB H/Q so generates business travel. SXM is also a destination for people traveling from south of ANU. There will be no seamless transfers as the Eastern Caribbean markets will be handled by at least 4 carriers replacing LIAT.

Dont know what happens to Gaston. He claims that LI contributes at least 3% of ANUs GDP. If he had the ability to inaugurate LI2020 without BGI he would have done so. He also has the problem of severance pay as most of the workers are in ANU. What happens to the money that they owe passengers who couldn't travel? Most aren't people who could just write this off. The easy part are the taxes and landing fees owed to governments as these will just have to be written off.
 
BW424
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Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Sat Jul 11, 2020 5:52 am

caribny wrote:
gunnerman wrote:
Gaston has recently admitted that LI was overstaffed, so he's also admitting that his government (and the other shareholder governments) failed to properly manage LI. Having said that, we should think of the staff who might get no compensation for their job loss.

LI did have some good traffic out of BGI, such as OGL which was double-daily. When traffic picks up passengers won't want to transit via POS. I hope that some sensible arrangement can be made, e.g. BW to establish a base there and operate profitable routes using perhaps the two ATRs owned by LI. I suspect that the bank will be happy to allow that instead of having the aggravation of seizing the aircraft and disposing of them.



BW has told Gonsalves that they can add 2 more ATRs quickly. I can see BW setting up a focus in BGI adding flights to SLU, GND and GEO/OGL. The Vincy airlines will handle BGI SVD. Maybe BW might add operations to OGL, as if they dont someone else will. I can see a Guyanese carrier adding BGI and POS out of OGL just as they already fly to Suriname if BW doesnt plug that hole.

Where LI will be missed will be serving that market of people travelling between the north and south parts of their route structure. That EIS BGI route must have been doing well enough to LI to reactivate it. A fair % of LIATs SKB market consists of people travelling south of ANU given that its the ECCB H/Q so generates business travel. SXM is also a destination for people traveling from south of ANU. There will be no seamless transfers as the Eastern Caribbean markets will be handled by at least 4 carriers replacing LIAT.

Don't know what happens to Gaston. He claims that LI contributes at least 3% of ANUs GDP. If he had the ability to inaugurate LI2020 without BGI he would have done so. He also has the problem of severance pay as most of the workers are in ANU. What happens to the money that they owe passengers who couldn't travel? Most aren't people who could just write this off. The easy part are the taxes and landing fees owed to governments as these will just have to be written off.



Hello everyone. It's been an extremely long time since I've posted here, however, of recent I have been lurking the thread again. Great speculative conversations as usual. PM Browne is unfortunately right now the personification of regional insularity which has been the fundamental downfall to regional aviation moving forward for decades. Those attitudes and misdeeds have been committed by almost all major regional economies in my humble opinion; PM Browne just seems to be the latest ambassador of that ideal and the rest of the Caribbean just isn't having it anymore; primarily based on economic circumstances.

From extremely reliable sources, caribny is bullseye on the money. BW will be basing 2 ATRs in BGI from mid July or thereabouts. As to the routes and the route structure, that info is still to be ironed out but I suspect they won't be far off from what I've seen being discussed on here.
It is what we think we know already that prevents us from learning.......
 
maverick4002
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Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Sat Jul 11, 2020 6:12 pm

So when you all say BW is basing two aircraft in BGI, logistically, what does that mean? Will they be hiring Barbados citizens to operate the flights? I am always interested in the logistics of these type of things.
 
caribny
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Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Sat Jul 11, 2020 6:24 pm

BW will probably have to hire some LI flight crews, and maybe even cabin. Under CSME (CARICOM) rules there will be no limits on work permits between citizens of various member states. They will be hired on the same basis as other BW crews, just maybe based in BGI. T&T is high crime and a lot of people from other islands dont want to live there.

CARICOM is a very important market for BGIs tourism, 3rd behind the UK and the USA and ahead of Canada. It also fills gaps as it is weakest in the winter and strongest in the summer, when the northern markets are less active. In addition the small hotel sector relies heavily on this market, so I can see BGI being very concerned about airlift and negotiating with BW to at least partially fill the gap. This is the largest O&D market in the Eastern Caribbean so needs airlift capacity that only BW can currently provide.

I remain concerned about airlift between the northern and southern ends of LI's route system. I dont see any carrier able/interested in providing that seamless connectivity from SJU all the way to GEO that LI did as these markets are quite fragmented and often ill suited to BWs 68 seat planes. Hopefully a proper interline connectivity emerges between BW and Air Antilles/Winair to allow better connectivity and alignment of markets with plane size. If this is the case Gaston will be further angered as SXM will emerge as a hub instead of ANU. Gaston has to be careful that he doesnt isolate ANU from intra regional airlift as these markets are also of some importance to them.
 
LimaFoxTango
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Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Sat Jul 11, 2020 8:49 pm

maverick4002 wrote:
So when you all say BW is basing two aircraft in BGI, logistically, what does that mean? Will they be hiring Barbados citizens to operate the flights? I am always interested in the logistics of these type of things.


Im told from July 15 they are looking to start up operations in BGI and will have crews domiciled there for at least 1 month. These will be BW crew. BW ATR crew is somewhat short staffed, so this will be very interesting. I'm curious to see if they will offer short term contracts to any LI crew.
You are said to be a good pilot when your take-off's equal your landings.
 
maverick4002
Posts: 293
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Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Sat Jul 11, 2020 8:59 pm

LimaFoxTango wrote:
maverick4002 wrote:
So when you all say BW is basing two aircraft in BGI, logistically, what does that mean? Will they be hiring Barbados citizens to operate the flights? I am always interested in the logistics of these type of things.


Im told from July 15 they are looking to start up operations in BGI and will have crews domiciled there for at least 1 month. These will be BW crew. BW ATR crew is somewhat short staffed, so this will be very interesting. I'm curious to see if they will offer short term contracts to any LI crew.


That would make sense tbh. This is, what I suppose, unexpected expansion and in very quick order. They have a ready made and waiting market of talent to choose from. I like it! Further position as a Caribbean airline!
 
caribny
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Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Sun Jul 12, 2020 8:51 am

maverick4002 wrote:
LimaFoxTango wrote:
maverick4002 wrote:
So when you all say BW is basing two aircraft in BGI, logistically, what does that mean? Will they be hiring Barbados citizens to operate the flights? I am always interested in the logistics of these type of things.


Im told from July 15 they are looking to start up operations in BGI and will have crews domiciled there for at least 1 month. These will be BW crew. BW ATR crew is somewhat short staffed, so this will be very interesting. I'm curious to see if they will offer short term contracts to any LI crew.


That would make sense tbh. This is, what I suppose, unexpected expansion and in very quick order. They have a ready made and waiting market of talent to choose from. I like it! Further position as a Caribbean airline!



They will have to add pilots and maybe even cabin crews. LI pilots have been unemployed for 3 months and those based in BGI will jump ship. Their only hesitation will be if they are forced to live in T&T.
 
gunnerman
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Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Sun Jul 12, 2020 12:06 pm

They won't be forced to live in T&T as that would be nonsensical. Crew based at a particular airport are typically required to be able to get to work within a certain period of time and no airline undertakes to routinely fly its crew to get to work.
 
User avatar
par13del
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Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Sun Jul 12, 2020 1:36 pm

Imagine if the governments in the Eastern Caribbean had as much focus on expanding the regional travel industry during this Covid pandemic where the infection rates in the region are better known versus once again trying to rely heavily on the European and North American clients.
The region survived for 3 months with little to no international and inter-regional traffic, at present, most countries in the region have a "safer" client base, and with the summer here and no access to the traditional vacation markets, an alternative exist. However, the major infrastructure based on prices are not geared towards "locals", this is where I think a rapid and even temporary adjustment should have been made. The funds borrowed by governments to preserve the status quo will be a millstone for decades to come.
 
fowlr29
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Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Sun Jul 12, 2020 3:37 pm

Would TTALPA agree to having foreign contract workers again? I seem to remember this causing a stink in the past. I understand it's Caricom, but the union would obviously prefer to have local Trinidadian crews sourced first. I don't see LI crew getting hired by BW unless a permanent base is set up in BGI. For now, crew will be rotated on a 30 day temporary basis. Furthermore, LI's pilots ECCAA licenses would have to be converted to TTCAA to fly 9Y.

There's heavy optimism in this thread about Winair dominating the Northern Caribbean network.. This optimism, at least in the short term, is misplaced. The airline is struggling to survive without revenue (limited) for the past four months, while heavily relying on cash flow to keep them operating. Aircraft leases will be sent back; the outlook isn't good. They pulled out of the SXM to CUR market this week as loads were in the single digits.
 
Brickell305
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Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Sun Jul 12, 2020 8:14 pm

fowlr29 wrote:
Would TTALPA agree to having foreign contract workers again? I seem to remember this causing a stink in the past. I understand it's Caricom, but the union would obviously prefer to have local Trinidadian crews sourced first. I don't see LI crew getting hired by BW unless a permanent base is set up in BGI. For now, crew will be rotated on a 30 day temporary basis. Furthermore, LI's pilots ECCAA licenses would have to be converted to TTCAA to fly 9Y.

There's heavy optimism in this thread about Winair dominating the Northern Caribbean network.. This optimism, at least in the short term, is misplaced. The airline is struggling to survive without revenue (limited) for the past four months, while heavily relying on cash flow to keep them operating. Aircraft leases will be sent back; the outlook isn't good. They pulled out of the SXM to CUR market this week as loads were in the single digits.


I also don’t see TTALPA easily agreeing to non-Trini crew in the near term. Especially because I see a short term downturn in flying ex POS. I foresee JFK, So. Fla (FLL dropped), MCO, YYZ all facing reductions. I can’t see them hiring non-Trini pilots in an environment where Trini pilots are less utilized.
 
skystar767
Posts: 117
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Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Mon Jul 13, 2020 2:21 am

Need answer to a question. Why BA flying to GEO from LHR in the past month or so?
 
LimaFoxTango
Posts: 978
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Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Mon Jul 13, 2020 2:41 am

skystar767 wrote:
Need answer to a question. Why BA flying to GEO from LHR in the past month or so?


Oil field workers charters apparently.
You are said to be a good pilot when your take-off's equal your landings.
 
caribny
Posts: 475
Joined: Sat Mar 16, 2019 1:47 am

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Mon Jul 13, 2020 6:44 am

par13del wrote:
Imagine if the governments in the Eastern Caribbean had as much focus on expanding the regional travel industry during this Covid pandemic where the infection rates in the region are better known versus once again trying to rely heavily on the European and North American clients.
The region survived for 3 months with little to no international and inter-regional traffic, at present, most countries in the region have a "safer" client base, and with the summer here and no access to the traditional vacation markets, an alternative exist. However, the major infrastructure based on prices are not geared towards "locals", this is where I think a rapid and even temporary adjustment should have been made. The funds borrowed by governments to preserve the status quo will be a millstone for decades to come.




The CHTA and CTO had a zoom call to deal with a refocus on intra regional markets, but if there is no market one cannot really speak of this. Even discussion about travel packages in some relatively upscale hotels at the "local" rate. Evidence that regional gov'ts are taking the regional market more seriously is that there is active talk about reducing taxes on intra regional travel. BGI is on board and others are also considering it.

T&T, by far the largest source of intra regional travel is not talking about opening and GEO (a bigger source market than some think, the 2nd into T&T and the 3rd in BGI) is also closed. BGI and SLU cannot on their own offset the loss of T&T so gov'ts had to quickly refocus on the traditional source markets, as they need to reactivate their economies and get their people back to work. I am sure if T&T was available BGI/SLU might have excluded the USA as that is a very risky market at this time. T&T, with its large middle class with disposable dollars, will more likely generate that hotel stay over (paying taxes( than an island like SLU will, so BGI couldnt focus on only intra regional travel.

T&T closed creates issues. Not only is a huge market lost as many T&T would have flown to BGI, GND, and SLU (not sure about the islands further north like ANU and SKB), but BWs ability to jump in to replace LI is also hampered. Bajans would love to fly to SLU or GND but will have to swim to do so until BW is able to start service on that route.

LIAT had to go. Its been a problem for many years. There had been talk of transforming the airline now for at least a decade. Tons of studies generated and yet LI remained a gluttonous pig, demanding to be fed on demand, every time they were cash strapped. Well despite what Gaston Browne thinks BGI doesnt have any money. Gaston can afford to let his people starve because he hasnt provided any relief packages to unemployed workers. Mia isnt capable of ignoring her people as Bajans are a much more entitled crowd.

Jamaica is not going to be a huge source market. Those Jamaicans who dont want to travel to the USA this summer will stay on the North Coast. Jamaica is big enough to offer excellent "staycation" opportunities. Even though BW can restart its KIN BGI operations I dont know that they have done so.
 
caribny
Posts: 475
Joined: Sat Mar 16, 2019 1:47 am

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Mon Jul 13, 2020 7:11 am

fowlr29 wrote:
Would TTALPA agree to having foreign contract workers again? I seem to remember this causing a stink in the past. I understand it's Caricom, but the union would obviously prefer to have local Trinidadian crews sourced first. I don't see LI crew getting hired by BW unless a permanent base is set up in BGI. For now, crew will be rotated on a 30 day temporary basis. Furthermore, LI's pilots ECCAA licenses would have to be converted to TTCAA to fly 9Y.

There's heavy optimism in this thread about Winair dominating the Northern Caribbean network.. This optimism, at least in the short term, is misplaced. The airline is struggling to survive without revenue (limited) for the past four months, while heavily relying on cash flow to keep them operating. Aircraft leases will be sent back; the outlook isn't good. They pulled out of the SXM to CUR market this week as loads were in the single digits.



Its not up to TTALPA. CSME rules allow people from any CARICOM nation (except Haiti, The Bahamas and Suriname which arent signatories to this) to work anywhere within CARICOM once they fit certain criteria. Pilots and cabin crews as well as ground staff clearly fit the criteria. TTALPA cannot celebrate the opportunities which LI's demise creates, as BW cherry picks LIs best routes and ignores the others, and think that Bajans, St Lucians or Antiguans will be barred from BW. The debate that I see will be whether these former LI crews will be willing to relocate to POS, with its high crime, away from their relatively low crime ANU and BGI. Especially as I think that BW already has crew shortages, especially for the ATRs.

If Gaston Browne stops being a child LIs maintenance facilities focused on the ATR might also become available to BW if needed.

The demise of WM might in fact force it to fill LIs gap, using their connections with Air Antilles, as they seek other revenue opportunities. If they dont Inter Caribbean will and then any plans for WM to expand will be gone. If loads are low that will be a different matter. I see WM staying in the northern Caribbean, as they cannot compete with BW down south. Its about fleshing out their service to SKB and ANU (and starting service between those islands), as well as ANU to DOM. I agree that starting new destinations is likely outside of their capabilities. Air Antilles in fact has their eyes on the southern Caribbean, maybe adding DOM/SLU to BGI and starting service to POS. So WM will have to stay north, maybe adding BW as a joint code partner to allow feed from the southern Caribbean via SXM. BW is looking at EIS. Does WM want them in there?
 
baje427
Posts: 815
Joined: Mon Aug 01, 2011 12:42 am

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Mon Jul 13, 2020 11:20 am

BGI welcomed their first commercial international flight yesterday with Air Canada served by an A320. I suspect the BW move to BGI is not guaranteed as it will depend on Covid cases. Many locals in BGI suspect the island will be on lockdown again sometime soon given how the last repatriation flight was handled .
 
fowlr29
Posts: 35
Joined: Sat Jun 27, 2020 1:29 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Mon Jul 13, 2020 1:47 pm

caribny wrote:
fowlr29 wrote:
Would TTALPA agree to having foreign contract workers again? I seem to remember this causing a stink in the past. I understand it's Caricom, but the union would obviously prefer to have local Trinidadian crews sourced first. I don't see LI crew getting hired by BW unless a permanent base is set up in BGI. For now, crew will be rotated on a 30 day temporary basis. Furthermore, LI's pilots ECCAA licenses would have to be converted to TTCAA to fly 9Y.

There's heavy optimism in this thread about Winair dominating the Northern Caribbean network.. This optimism, at least in the short term, is misplaced. The airline is struggling to survive without revenue (limited) for the past four months, while heavily relying on cash flow to keep them operating. Aircraft leases will be sent back; the outlook isn't good. They pulled out of the SXM to CUR market this week as loads were in the single digits.



Its not up to TTALPA. CSME rules allow people from any CARICOM nation (except Haiti, The Bahamas and Suriname which arent signatories to this) to work anywhere within CARICOM once they fit certain criteria. Pilots and cabin crews as well as ground staff clearly fit the criteria. TTALPA cannot celebrate the opportunities which LI's demise creates, as BW cherry picks LIs best routes and ignores the others, and think that Bajans, St Lucians or Antiguans will be barred from BW. The debate that I see will be whether these former LI crews will be willing to relocate to POS, with its high crime, away from their relatively low crime ANU and BGI. Especially as I think that BW already has crew shortages, especially for the ATRs.

If Gaston Browne stops being a child LIs maintenance facilities focused on the ATR might also become available to BW if needed.

The demise of WM might in fact force it to fill LIs gap, using their connections with Air Antilles, as they seek other revenue opportunities. If they dont Inter Caribbean will and then any plans for WM to expand will be gone. If loads are low that will be a different matter. I see WM staying in the northern Caribbean, as they cannot compete with BW down south. Its about fleshing out their service to SKB and ANU (and starting service between those islands), as well as ANU to DOM. I agree that starting new destinations is likely outside of their capabilities. Air Antilles in fact has their eyes on the southern Caribbean, maybe adding DOM/SLU to BGI and starting service to POS. So WM will have to stay north, maybe adding BW as a joint code partner to allow feed from the southern Caribbean via SXM. BW is looking at EIS. Does WM want them in there?


Agreed that WM should be actively trying to fill LIs gap in the islands closest to SXM. However the airline has been dominantly focused on connecting passengers to Air France/KLM while giving all other markets the back seat. Connecting SKB and ANU should be done in my opinion, once SKB reopens. ANU to DOM should also be done more in the short term, and I see that becoming a reality soon. If I was WM I definitely wouldn't want to see BW flying between SXM and EIS, but the two would be in different segments of the market, similar to when LI used to operate the route. LI got the local traffic, and connecting traffic to the EC, WM got all of the connecting passengers to Europe and North America with their long list of interlines (of which BW is one) and code shares. It would be better to see WM capture more of the local market, but the connecting market was enough for the three daily flights that they had prior to COVID (most flights were packed, sometimes they needed 4 daily as bags were being left behind in the high season). The only drawback I see with Air Antilles operating further south compared with some others is the language barrier and differences in culture with English speaking islands. I flew with them/WM recently to Curacao and it wasn't ideal to say the least.

Let's not forget that even though CSME rules may allow people from the other islands to work for BW as pilots/cabin crew doesn't mean that TTALPA can't force BW's hand in the matter in giving preference to non-type rated local crew. Will LI crew choose to base themselves in POS even if that possibility comes to fruition? Maybe in today's economic climate. Only time will tell.
 
caribny
Posts: 475
Joined: Sat Mar 16, 2019 1:47 am

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Mon Jul 13, 2020 6:25 pm

baje427 wrote:
BGI welcomed their first commercial international flight yesterday with Air Canada served by an A320. I suspect the BW move to BGI is not guaranteed as it will depend on Covid cases. Many locals in BGI suspect the island will be on lockdown again sometime soon given how the last repatriation flight was handled .



Protocols can be improved to reduce the likelihood of infection and to make sure that those who visit the island behave like good guests. If Bajans want to go back to planting corn and wearing cardboard shoes they can lock down in perpetuity.
 
caribny
Posts: 475
Joined: Sat Mar 16, 2019 1:47 am

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Mon Jul 13, 2020 7:28 pm

fowlr29 wrote:
caribny wrote:
[quot




Agreed that WM should be actively trying to fill LIs gap in the islands closest to SXM. However the airline has been dominantly focused on connecting passengers to Air France/KLM while giving all other markets the back seat. Connecting SKB and ANU should be done in my opinion, once SKB reopens. ANU to DOM should also be done more in the short term, and I see that becoming a reality soon. If I was WM I definitely wouldn't want to see BW flying between SXM and EIS, but the two would be in different segments of the market, similar to when LI used to operate the route. LI got the local traffic, and connecting traffic to the EC, WM got all of the connecting passengers to Europe and North America with their long list of interlines (of which BW is one) and code shares. It would be better to see WM capture more of the local market, but the connecting market was enough for the three daily flights that they had prior to COVID (most flights were packed, sometimes they needed 4 daily as bags were being left behind in the high season). The only drawback I see with Air Antilles operating further south compared with some others is the language barrier and differences in culture with English speaking islands. I flew with them/WM recently to Curacao and it wasn't ideal to say the least.

Let's not forget that even though CSME rules may allow people from the other islands to work for BW as pilots/cabin crew doesn't mean that TTALPA can't force BW's hand in the matter in giving preference to non-type rated local crew. Will LI crew choose to base themselves in POS even if that possibility comes to fruition? Maybe in today's economic climate. Only time will tell.


BW has a shortage of ATR pilots so its best to hire LI crews, who will now be unemployed, unless Gaston pulls a rabbit out of a hat. T&T already has enough problems within CARICOM due to its economic dominance of this grouping. Certainly grabbing LI market share, but not hiring LI former staff will be a huge issue. BW already has a diverse crew and the cultural advantages that this brings with its Jamaica operations, so they can deal with incorporating Bajans, St Lucians, Antiguans and others. In fact some of them are even Trinidadians. ANU will deny BW landing rights if their nationals are excluded, assuming that their attempts to revitalize a LI2020 fail. They already think that he rest of CARICOM wants to destroy them.

WM already handles BW passengers flying to EIS and SKB from KIN via SXM. I see definite coordinated schedules so there must be enough volume to make it worthwhile. WM can similarly coordinate with BW bringing people up from GEO, POS, BGI, SLU and elsewhere down south. BW can also help WM out by adding STT out of SXM. I assume that they still have their Cat 2 challenges and the French authorities still bar Air Antilles from that route.

Yes I have seen Air Antilles receiving poor reviews from Tripadvisor (worse than what LI got) and language was a big issue. Aside from language though what are the cultural distinctions between French Antilleans and English speaking Caribbean people? Windward Islanders (SLU, etc) have a French creole flavor and the essence of this also extends to T&T. I see them replacing the LI gap out of FDF/PTP (such as adding POS) and maybe supplementing BW service out of SLU to BGI/POS. Maybe handling DOM to points south, or even to ANU, depending on what BW does with that. Nothing major as I do agree that they cannot compete against BW.
 
LimaFoxTango
Posts: 978
Joined: Wed Jun 16, 2004 11:33 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Mon Jul 13, 2020 7:42 pm

caribny wrote:

Its not up to TTALPA. CSME rules allow people from any CARICOM nation (except Haiti, The Bahamas and Suriname which arent signatories to this) to work anywhere within CARICOM once they fit certain criteria. Pilots and cabin crews as well as ground staff clearly fit the criteria. TTALPA cannot celebrate the opportunities which LI's demise creates, as BW cherry picks LIs best routes and ignores the others, and think that Bajans, St Lucians or Antiguans will be barred from BW. The debate that I see will be whether these former LI crews will be willing to relocate to POS, with its high crime, away from their relatively low crime ANU and BGI. Especially as I think that BW already has crew shortages, especially for the ATRs.


CSME rules may allow a person to work in POS, but TTALPA's collective agreement with BW may say otherwise.
You are said to be a good pilot when your take-off's equal your landings.
 
baje427
Posts: 815
Joined: Mon Aug 01, 2011 12:42 am

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Mon Jul 13, 2020 8:48 pm

caribny wrote:
baje427 wrote:
BGI welcomed their first commercial international flight yesterday with Air Canada served by an A320. I suspect the BW move to BGI is not guaranteed as it will depend on Covid cases. Many locals in BGI suspect the island will be on lockdown again sometime soon given how the last repatriation flight was handled .



Protocols can be improved to reduce the likelihood of infection and to make sure that those who visit the island behave like good guests. If Bajans want to go back to planting corn and wearing cardboard shoes they can lock down in perpetuity.

If this virus continues as is most in the region will have to go back to that type of living. That being said I suppose BW could lease 2 of LI's ATR's to get the operation going quickly. Does anyone know if the LI crew accepted the pay cut offered by the Antiguan PM?
 
Caymanair
Posts: 500
Joined: Mon Apr 05, 2004 4:53 am

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Mon Jul 13, 2020 8:59 pm

The idea that the TTAPLA could dictate how the company operates in Barbados <, particularly with a potential shortage of flight crew, is pretty abhorrent. Why would they be given any authority in the matter?

In broader terms, this approach to solving these issues as individual island governments is damaging. This is not the time to exert your power as the RT Honourable Prime Minister of nothing. The efforts need to be coordinated and seamless, and likely funded from outside. Get rid of the regional taxes... no one argues they are both excessive and a hindrance. devise a single solution for regional airlift. Hint: they already exist in Trinidad and Provo.
 
fowlr29
Posts: 35
Joined: Sat Jun 27, 2020 1:29 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Mon Jul 13, 2020 10:00 pm

Caymanair wrote:
The idea that the TTAPLA could dictate how the company operates in Barbados <, particularly with a potential shortage of flight crew, is pretty abhorrent. Why would they be given any authority in the matter?

In broader terms, this approach to solving these issues as individual island governments is damaging. This is not the time to exert your power as the RT Honourable Prime Minister of nothing. The efforts need to be coordinated and seamless, and likely funded from outside. Get rid of the regional taxes... no one argues they are both excessive and a hindrance. devise a single solution for regional airlift. Hint: they already exist in Trinidad and Provo.


Because we are talking about a Trinidadian airline operating flights out of another country. It's like American Airlines setting up base in Jamaica to operate flights to the USA and expecting an American company to hire Jamaican nationals. It just won't happen. We aren't talking about a crew base, we're talking about rotating crew to operate flights. The Trinidad and Tobago Airline Pilots Association will always prefer Trinidadians be hired into a Trinidadian company before anybody else; it's just that simple. As to the authority that the union has in dictating operations in Barbados: the company has a collective agreement with the airline that dictates certain operations, regardless of what country we are talking about. Does it mean LI crew can't get hired by BW? No. But you can bet that there won't be anybody else qualified to fill the position before this will be done.
 
Brickell305
Posts: 1056
Joined: Sat Jun 24, 2017 2:07 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Mon Jul 13, 2020 10:04 pm

Caymanair wrote:
The idea that the TTAPLA could dictate how the company operates in Barbados <, particularly with a potential shortage of flight crew, is pretty abhorrent. Why would they be given any authority in the matter?

In broader terms, this approach to solving these issues as individual island governments is damaging. This is not the time to exert your power as the RT Honourable Prime Minister of nothing. The efforts need to be coordinated and seamless, and likely funded from outside. Get rid of the regional taxes... no one argues they are both excessive and a hindrance. devise a single solution for regional airlift. Hint: they already exist in Trinidad and Provo.

The main issue with everyone getting on the same page is that each island has varying interests. They all want regional connectivity but with their own interests maintained. ANU wants employment. That's why Gaston is so insistent that an airline be based in ANU. He has outright said that POS should not be the supermarket of the Caribbean and also have a monopoly on travel services. SVD has their own airlines now and with lower dependence on BGI for connections now that it has an international airport, doesn't feel the need to bend over backwards to support any other carriers. BGI knows that it's a big market and that airlines will come and fill the capacity gap left by LI. Employment is another matter, however, they were never as dependent on LI as ANU was employment wise. Islands further to the north such as SKB and DOM might be more inclined to support ANU in its efforts as they are less likely to have the missing capacity from LI replaced by BW or other carriers. ANU and SVD both have new airports (terminal building in the case of ANU) to pay for so can't afford to lower taxes easily, especially in a low demand environment where it is unlikely to yield a desired result.
 
LimaFoxTango
Posts: 978
Joined: Wed Jun 16, 2004 11:33 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Tue Jul 14, 2020 12:01 am

Caymanair wrote:
The idea that the TTAPLA could dictate how the company operates in Barbados <, particularly with a potential shortage of flight crew, is pretty abhorrent. Why would they be given any authority in the matter?


How is it any different to scope clauses in the US? Many pilot contracts have clauses in them that prohibits a company from hiring "outside" pilots, or at least without consultation first.
You are said to be a good pilot when your take-off's equal your landings.
 
baje427
Posts: 815
Joined: Mon Aug 01, 2011 12:42 am

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Tue Jul 14, 2020 1:21 am

fowlr29 wrote:
Caymanair wrote:
The idea that the TTAPLA could dictate how the company operates in Barbados <, particularly with a potential shortage of flight crew, is pretty abhorrent. Why would they be given any authority in the matter?

In broader terms, this approach to solving these issues as individual island governments is damaging. This is not the time to exert your power as the RT Honourable Prime Minister of nothing. The efforts need to be coordinated and seamless, and likely funded from outside. Get rid of the regional taxes... no one argues they are both excessive and a hindrance. devise a single solution for regional airlift. Hint: they already exist in Trinidad and Provo.


Because we are talking about a Trinidadian airline operating flights out of another country. It's like American Airlines setting up base in Jamaica to operate flights to the USA and expecting an American company to hire Jamaican nationals. It just won't happen. We aren't talking about a crew base, we're talking about rotating crew to operate flights. The Trinidad and Tobago Airline Pilots Association will always prefer Trinidadians be hired into a Trinidadian company before anybody else; it's just that simple. As to the authority that the union has in dictating operations in Barbados: the company has a collective agreement with the airline that dictates certain operations, regardless of what country we are talking about. Does it mean LI crew can't get hired by BW? No. But you can bet that there won't be anybody else qualified to fill the position before this will be done.

Wouldn't that approach change given that the Trinidad borders remain closed ?
 
LimaFoxTango
Posts: 978
Joined: Wed Jun 16, 2004 11:33 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Tue Jul 14, 2020 1:25 am

baje427 wrote:
fowlr29 wrote:
Caymanair wrote:
The idea that the TTAPLA could dictate how the company operates in Barbados <, particularly with a potential shortage of flight crew, is pretty abhorrent. Why would they be given any authority in the matter?

In broader terms, this approach to solving these issues as individual island governments is damaging. This is not the time to exert your power as the RT Honourable Prime Minister of nothing. The efforts need to be coordinated and seamless, and likely funded from outside. Get rid of the regional taxes... no one argues they are both excessive and a hindrance. devise a single solution for regional airlift. Hint: they already exist in Trinidad and Provo.


Because we are talking about a Trinidadian airline operating flights out of another country. It's like American Airlines setting up base in Jamaica to operate flights to the USA and expecting an American company to hire Jamaican nationals. It just won't happen. We aren't talking about a crew base, we're talking about rotating crew to operate flights. The Trinidad and Tobago Airline Pilots Association will always prefer Trinidadians be hired into a Trinidadian company before anybody else; it's just that simple. As to the authority that the union has in dictating operations in Barbados: the company has a collective agreement with the airline that dictates certain operations, regardless of what country we are talking about. Does it mean LI crew can't get hired by BW? No. But you can bet that there won't be anybody else qualified to fill the position before this will be done.

Wouldn't that approach change given that the Trinidad borders remain closed ?


No. Not like POS borders will be closed forever anyway.
You are said to be a good pilot when your take-off's equal your landings.
 
fowlr29
Posts: 35
Joined: Sat Jun 27, 2020 1:29 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Tue Jul 14, 2020 1:26 am

baje427 wrote:
fowlr29 wrote:
Caymanair wrote:
The idea that the TTAPLA could dictate how the company operates in Barbados <, particularly with a potential shortage of flight crew, is pretty abhorrent. Why would they be given any authority in the matter?

In broader terms, this approach to solving these issues as individual island governments is damaging. This is not the time to exert your power as the RT Honourable Prime Minister of nothing. The efforts need to be coordinated and seamless, and likely funded from outside. Get rid of the regional taxes... no one argues they are both excessive and a hindrance. devise a single solution for regional airlift. Hint: they already exist in Trinidad and Provo.


Because we are talking about a Trinidadian airline operating flights out of another country. It's like American Airlines setting up base in Jamaica to operate flights to the USA and expecting an American company to hire Jamaican nationals. It just won't happen. We aren't talking about a crew base, we're talking about rotating crew to operate flights. The Trinidad and Tobago Airline Pilots Association will always prefer Trinidadians be hired into a Trinidadian company before anybody else; it's just that simple. As to the authority that the union has in dictating operations in Barbados: the company has a collective agreement with the airline that dictates certain operations, regardless of what country we are talking about. Does it mean LI crew can't get hired by BW? No. But you can bet that there won't be anybody else qualified to fill the position before this will be done.

Wouldn't that approach change given that the Trinidad borders remain closed ?



How? Required crew of an aircraft are not confined those restrictions. Aircraft will still have to fly to Trinidad to perform maintenance, crew can switch out then.
 
maverick4002
Posts: 293
Joined: Sun Jul 12, 2015 2:14 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Tue Jul 14, 2020 3:24 am

So is this all speculation or are we certain there is a clause prohibiting hiring non Trinidad and Tobago people.

What is the situation with the Jamaican operations? I assume those are staffed with some Jamaican nationals at least.

If they open a base in BGI, does not mean these new routes are exclusively flown by people who are allocated to that base? Cant a trini cabin crew somehow be scheduled to fly BGI ANU for example? Seems like more work opportunity to me

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