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trini81
Posts: 19
Joined: Tue Sep 04, 2018 8:26 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Tue Jul 21, 2020 3:01 pm

https://268today.com/business/liat-shar ... n-90-days/

Seems like the Governments of St Vincent and Barbados have agreed tosell their LIAT shares to Antigua fro 1 dollar each. Antigua has indicated they would sell the three ATRs owned and are looking to restart LIAT flights in 60-90 days....
 
maverick4002
Posts: 248
Joined: Sun Jul 12, 2015 2:14 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Tue Jul 21, 2020 3:08 pm

trini81 wrote:
https://268today.com/business/liat-shareholders-reach-agreement-to-sell-3-planes-airline-could-fly-again-in-90-days/

Seems like the Governments of St Vincent and Barbados have agreed tosell their LIAT shares to Antigua fro 1 dollar each. Antigua has indicated they would sell the three ATRs owned and are looking to restart LIAT flights in 60-90 days....


So Antigua will be the sole owner of LIAT? Will the new LIAT, if it ever comes, be primarily focused on LIAT then? Seems the competitive landscape will be much more serious with more competitors being invited from the other islands. hmmm
 
gunnerman
Posts: 1143
Joined: Fri May 19, 2017 7:55 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Tue Jul 21, 2020 4:48 pm

The views of the aircraft lessors (GECAS and NAS) are crucial as they will want the outstanding lease payments to be made and have confidence in the ability of LIAT 2020 to make future payments before doing further leasing deals.
 
Brickell305
Posts: 1017
Joined: Sat Jun 24, 2017 2:07 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Tue Jul 21, 2020 4:57 pm

trini81 wrote:
https://268today.com/business/liat-shareholders-reach-agreement-to-sell-3-planes-airline-could-fly-again-in-90-days/

Seems like the Governments of St Vincent and Barbados have agreed tosell their LIAT shares to Antigua fro 1 dollar each. Antigua has indicated they would sell the three ATRs owned and are looking to restart LIAT flights in 60-90 days....

I think this is just sill quite frankly. BGI and SVD are selling their shares for $1 because that’s more than they would have gotten otherwise from a liquidation. They want nothing to do with LI. ANU doesn’t have the resources to restructure LI or to prop it up on an ongoing basis beyond this. Meanwhile, LI is taking in $0 in revenue and its expenses are mounting. Best of luck to them. They’ll need it.
 
danipawa
Posts: 461
Joined: Sat Oct 01, 2016 1:18 am

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Wed Jul 22, 2020 3:18 am

Sky High Aviation is launching SDQ-STT starting this friday on ERJ145
 
caribny
Posts: 444
Joined: Sat Mar 16, 2019 1:47 am

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Wed Jul 22, 2020 7:24 am

danipawa wrote:
Sky High Aviation is launching SDQ-STT starting this friday on ERJ145



With DR in a high pandemic now (60% of the cases in the Caribbean) I bet that the USVI wishes that they could block those flights.
 
caribny
Posts: 444
Joined: Sat Mar 16, 2019 1:47 am

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Wed Jul 22, 2020 7:32 am

Brickell305 wrote:
trini81 wrote:
https://268today.com/business/liat-shareholders-reach-agreement-to-sell-3-planes-airline-could-fly-again-in-90-days/

Seems like the Governments of St Vincent and Barbados have agreed tosell their LIAT shares to Antigua fro 1 dollar each. Antigua has indicated they would sell the three ATRs owned and are looking to restart LIAT flights in 60-90 days....

I think this is just sill quite frankly. BGI and SVD are selling their shares for $1 because that’s more than they would have gotten otherwise from a liquidation. They want nothing to do with LI. ANU doesn’t have the resources to restructure LI or to prop it up on an ongoing basis beyond this. Meanwhile, LI is taking in $0 in revenue and its expenses are mounting. Best of luck to them. They’ll need it.



BGI will have 3 airlines, BW, JY and OCL, all vying to make it a hub or focus city. This being the most profitable in LI's network. I think that LI's role would have to be in the northern Caribbean and connecting it with the southern Caribbean. That is if it survives, and I just dont see this as likely. Just today I was speaking with a Dominican, and when I told her about LI closing she cheered, even though she was worried about what will replace them. Even though their service standards have improved their image from times past still dominates.

LIs advantages are its network and its fleet of ATRs (compared to small airlines with "rinky dinky planes), so what planes will LI2020 have? Anyway Gaston got what he wished and that is 100% ownership. I hope that he doesnt regret it when he finds himself liable for EC$100 million in payments.
 
fowlr29
Posts: 32
Joined: Sat Jun 27, 2020 1:29 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Wed Jul 22, 2020 4:27 pm

Winair/Air Antilles resumes Dominica from August 8th with the ATR. Flights will operate four days a week on a Monday, Tuesday, Thursday and Saturday. Winair sells 30 seats on these flights, Air Antilles sells the rest. The rest of the network remains unchanged.

I think that LI's role would have to be in the northern Caribbean and connecting it with the southern Caribbean. That is if it survives, and I just dont see this as likely.




Couldn't agree more; guess we will see what money Gaston Browne can pull out of the bag, but I doubt that it is enough to restart the airline even with the 3 ATR's being sold. Nice to see multiple carriers eyeing the markets in the Southern Caribbean when it was just BW and LI being the players in the market for so long.
 
AEROFAN
Posts: 1857
Joined: Wed Aug 04, 2004 9:47 am

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Wed Jul 22, 2020 4:57 pm

caribny wrote:
Brickell305 wrote:
trini81 wrote:
https://268today.com/business/liat-shareholders-reach-agreement-to-sell-3-planes-airline-could-fly-again-in-90-days/
"... Even though their service standards have improved their image from times past still dominates..."
.

Service standards have improved? Say what? When was this improvement and improved from what level? I had the unfortunate opportunity to fly LIAT from Barbados to St. Vincent in 2017. I have never experienced something like that before. Let's just say that when I returned to NYC a week later, I immediately called my credit card company and got my money back.
“You are not entitled to your opinion. You are entitled to your informed opinion. No one is entitled to be ignorant.” ~Harlan Ellison~
 
gunnerman
Posts: 1143
Joined: Fri May 19, 2017 7:55 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Wed Jul 22, 2020 6:52 pm

There is an odd report of One Caribbean having recently flown three times into GND despite having been informed on multiple occasions by the Grenada Ministry of Tourism and Civil Aviation that the process for obtaining a licence to operate such flights must be followed. It does make you wonder what else this airline hasn't done.
 
maverick4002
Posts: 248
Joined: Sun Jul 12, 2015 2:14 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Wed Jul 22, 2020 11:23 pm

Someone just started a new thread about CAL applying for Houston service with a start date potentially as soon as Aug 14. That is interesting. Are the borders scheduled to be open right after the election?

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1449417
 
caribny
Posts: 444
Joined: Sat Mar 16, 2019 1:47 am

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Thu Jul 23, 2020 5:14 am

Everyone in the Eastern Caribbean want to know when T&T borders will reopen. Now that US tourists are increasingly being seen as a virus its to that market that many wanted to turn to hoping that Trinis, scared off from the FL pandemic, might have sampled trips to nearby islands. Tourist dependent BGI is in a deep economic funk so they lack the $$ to travel in their usual numbers.
 
caribny
Posts: 444
Joined: Sat Mar 16, 2019 1:47 am

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Thu Jul 23, 2020 5:18 am

AEROFAN wrote:
caribny wrote:
Brickell305 wrote:

Service standards have improved? Say what? When was this improvement and improved from what level? I had the unfortunate opportunity to fly LIAT from Barbados to St. Vincent in 2017. I have never experienced something like that before. Let's just say that when I returned to NYC a week later, I immediately called my credit card company and got my money back.



It improved after 2017 when the new CEO took charge. When I visit SKB I am right by the airport, so see planes taking off, and can assure you that LIAT did better than AA in its punctuality. Those late afternoon AA flights can be a disaster resulting in chaos at MIA when almost everyone is trying to make a connection.
 
caribny
Posts: 444
Joined: Sat Mar 16, 2019 1:47 am

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Thu Jul 23, 2020 5:30 am

gunnerman wrote:
There is an odd report of One Caribbea aving recently flown three times into GND despite having been informed on multiple occasions by the Grenada Ministry of Tourism and Civil Aviation that the process for obtaining a licence to operate such flights must be followed. It does make you wonder what else this airline hasn't done.




This is why I fear that Gaston will have the last laugh when traveling public demands the return of LIAT. As bad as they have been they actually have higher Tripadvisor ratings in the Caribbean than do private carriers like Inter Caribbean, Air Antilles and Seaborne/Silver.

So no shock that OCL will behave like a bunch of hustlers. Who actually owns this airline anyway? BW, while better, will give higher priority to its TAB route so guess who suffers if ATR issues arise, as they sometimes do? Inter Caribbean I think has a 2 star compared to LIs 2.5. I think that they over expanded so this further expansion might be a nightmare,
 
LimaFoxTango
Posts: 969
Joined: Wed Jun 16, 2004 11:33 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Thu Jul 23, 2020 12:41 pm

caribny wrote:
Everyone in the Eastern Caribbean want to know when T&T borders will reopen. Now that US tourists are increasingly being seen as a virus its to that market that many wanted to turn to hoping that Trinis, scared off from the FL pandemic, might have sampled trips to nearby islands. Tourist dependent BGI is in a deep economic funk so they lack the $$ to travel in their usual numbers.


Not before Aug 10 general elections.
You are said to be a good pilot when your take-off's equal your landings.
 
LimaFoxTango
Posts: 969
Joined: Wed Jun 16, 2004 11:33 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Thu Jul 23, 2020 12:50 pm

caribny wrote:
This is why I fear that Gaston will have the last laugh when traveling public demands the return of LIAT. As bad as they have been they actually have higher Tripadvisor ratings in the Caribbean than do private carriers like Inter Caribbean, Air Antilles and Seaborne/Silver.

So no shock that OCL will behave like a bunch of hustlers. Who actually owns this airline anyway? BW, while better, will give higher priority to its TAB route so guess who suffers if ATR issues arise, as they sometimes do? Inter Caribbean I think has a 2 star compared to LIs 2.5. I think that they over expanded so this further expansion might be a nightmare,


Not sure why you call it a "fear". I believe he will. LI has made noticeable improvements in its OTP and customer service over the last 2-3 years. OCL needs to be watched very closely. Very shortly people will be begging for LI's return once they "experience" Inter and OCL. BW will only cherry pick the profitable routes.
You are said to be a good pilot when your take-off's equal your landings.
 
caribbean484
Posts: 901
Joined: Sat Jan 06, 2007 1:57 am

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Thu Jul 23, 2020 1:36 pm

maverick4002 wrote:
Someone just started a new thread about CAL applying for Houston service with a start date potentially as soon as Aug 14. That is interesting. Are the borders scheduled to be open right after the election?

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1449417


I have heard from my source late last year that they were looking at a couple of US routes, and to start one this year, more so Washington DC area but this one was a surprise. Reading their document, they have won some significant oil contracts in POS and GEO and want to start executing asap.

I am interested to see how AA and UA will react to this as AA started GEO-MIA as they had the oil contracts locked up and the business fares reflected that. POS with UA, BWIA always wanted to start IAH in 2001, however TTCAA was downgraded to Cat2 and UA came in with short partnership with BW back then on the route. They also wanted to start ATL at that time, then DL came in and left after a couple years service.

As for when the boarders will be opened, some are saying late September, I am not sure. It seems that from the filing when the boarders do open, the chartered service will become a scheduled service with GEO as an extension.

LimaFoxTango wrote:
Not sure why you call it a "fear". I believe he will. LI has made noticeable improvements in its OTP and customer service over the last 2-3 years. OCL needs to be watched very closely. Very shortly people will be begging for LI's return once they "experience" Inter and OCL. BW will only cherry pick the profitable routes.


As they should; CAL's mandate has always been to service routes that make economical sense and those that are not, to get a revenue guarantee. LI has to be on the same strategy or restructure their entire route structure to make it financially viable. The tax structure in the region has to change considerably to encourage more competition and better fares. The only issue is the competition will be intense going forward as CAL made it known that they want to make BGI their 3rd focus( Similar to BWIA) after POS and KIN. Already DOM and BVI has approved their applications for route rights and SVD and GND has given their intent to more services.
All ah we is one family
 
AEROFAN
Posts: 1857
Joined: Wed Aug 04, 2004 9:47 am

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Thu Jul 23, 2020 2:24 pm

caribny wrote:
AEROFAN wrote:
caribny wrote:

Service standards have improved? Say what? When was this improvement and improved from what level? I had the unfortunate opportunity to fly LIAT from Barbados to St. Vincent in 2017. I have never experienced something like that before. Let's just say that when I returned to NYC a week later, I immediately called my credit card company and got my money back.



It improved after 2017 when the new CEO took charge. When I visit SKB I am right by the airport, so see planes taking off, and can assure you that LIAT did better than AA in its punctuality. Those late afternoon AA flights can be a disaster resulting in chaos at MIA when almost everyone is trying to make a connection.


Glad to hear that for the customers who used it after my trip in 2017, that service improved for them.
I have used AA many times flying to the Caribbean for the last 20 years or so. None of my trips have ever been more than 2 hours late and none has certainly ever gotten me to my destination 7-8 hours later than was originally booked. Perhaps I lucked out and just flew LIAT twice on bad days. Perhaps BGI/SVD was just its problem child... I got my money back. So all's well that ends well.
“You are not entitled to your opinion. You are entitled to your informed opinion. No one is entitled to be ignorant.” ~Harlan Ellison~
 
caribny
Posts: 444
Joined: Sat Mar 16, 2019 1:47 am

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Thu Jul 23, 2020 3:21 pm

LimaFoxTango wrote:

Not sure why you call it a "fear". I believe he will. LI has made noticeable improvements in its OTP and customer service over the last 2-3 years. OCL needs to be watched very closely. Very shortly people will be begging for LI's return once they "experience" Inter and OCL. BW will only cherry pick the profitable routes.



I say "fear" because I am not convinced that Gaston will succeed. Its a pity that LIATs structural problems were not worked out earlier. The fact is that Caribbean gov'ts have no money and the regional private sector is stretched, and its only the Allan Stanford type of foreign investor who will put $$ into Caribbean aviation.

There are no models of success for privately owned Caribbean airlines. Inter Carib has a poor performance history, and some claim that it isnt as financially sound as its owner will represent it as being. Privately owned BWIA and AJ performed so badly that their respective gov'ts had to "de-privatize" them, as both were on the brink of collapse. The Netherland Antillean privately owned carriers no longer exist. Caribbean Star was a failure even more than LI was, in all aspects of its operations. We will not even discuss the embarrassment that Redjet was, and it was unanimous to regular posters on this forum that they wouldnt last too long, and we were right.

While LIATs performance had improved over its last 2 years, and I made mention of that, it still has a bad image. The first response of many in the Caribbean, outside of ANU has been "good riddance". This because most people aren't aware of its improved service which began when the new CEO was appointed.

Its the BGI market which supported LI's improved financial performance. The routes that BW will cherry pick will be built around that hub. They will do very little in the northern Caribbean, and I know this because they are only planning to add 2 ATRs, whereas they would need at a minimum an additional 5 to fully offset LIAT. In fact I dont even know that people living in T&T can even conceptualize SKB, so that northern Caribbean market, starting from DOM heading north will be ignored. Even Inter Carib seems more interested in the southern market, even though that will shortly be over served. I haven't heard of any plans from them about the northern routes.


I can only see LI2020 surviving maybe with 30 seat Embraer planes built around an ANU hub with service no further south than BGI. And its BGI operations being oriented to moving people up north and not thinking that they can compete into the SVD, GEO and SLU markets which are the biggest into BGI aside from POS. The ATRs will be too big for the markets left to LI2020. The US Caribbean will be closed to them due to ECCAA's problems.
 
caribny
Posts: 444
Joined: Sat Mar 16, 2019 1:47 am

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Thu Jul 23, 2020 3:29 pm

AEROFAN wrote:

Glad to hear that for the customers who used it after my trip in 2017, that service improved for them.
I have used AA many times flying to the Caribbean for the last 20 years or so. None of my trips have ever been more than 2 hours late and none has certainly ever gotten me to my destination 7-8 hours later than was originally booked. Perhaps I lucked out and just flew LIAT twice on bad days. Perhaps BGI/SVD was just its problem child... I got my money back. So all's well that ends well.


If AA is 2 hours late in departing you might be one day late in arriving. Why? Because you will miss your connections in MIA and AA ground crews will treat you as if its your fault. I had 2 encounters with that afternoon flight, and since then if I must travel thru MIA I use the morning flight which will almost always be on time. I knew exactly how Mary and Joseph felt when I had to ignore AA abuse in MIA. And we heard several stories from taxi drivers and others that this problem isnt unusual given AAs de facto monopoly there.

We often give the legacy carriers a pass because of their powerful brands but IMHO they arent any better than the Caribbean carriers, even though they are much better resourced. BW in fact has a better OTP within the Caribbean than AA does.
 
caribny
Posts: 444
Joined: Sat Mar 16, 2019 1:47 am

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Thu Jul 23, 2020 5:17 pm

caribbean484 wrote:

As they should; CAL's mandate has always been to service routes that make economical sense and those that are not, to get a revenue guarantee. LI has to be on the same strategy or restructure their entire route structure to make it financially viable. The tax structure in the region has to change considerably to encourage more competition and better fares. The only issue is the competition will be intense going forward as CAL made it known that they want to make BGI their 3rd focus( Similar to BWIA) after POS and KIN. Already DOM and BVI has approved their applications for route rights and SVD and GND has given their intent to more services.



There is some rumor that the T&T borders might open up after August 15th, by which time (hopefully) the election will be completed and the incumbent gov't remaining in place or a new gov't installed. Whether they will reopen to the US markets is a thought, given that some Caribbean nations are apparently regretting that move, and at least one, SVD, is considering dropping flights from that source. Even the Bahamas has closed its borders to the USA.

So T&T might reopen only to CARICOM, UK, and Canada. They might wait until Sept for the USA, depending on how well FL/TX deal with the pandemic. Given the pandemic in Latin America I dont think that COPA will be back in the near term.

I believe that the US authorities have already denied route rights on the SJU EIS route, maybe even the DOM route, based on representations made by Silver, which is now introducing larger planes into the Eastern Caribbean.
 
caribbean484
Posts: 901
Joined: Sat Jan 06, 2007 1:57 am

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Thu Jul 23, 2020 6:33 pm

caribny wrote:
LimaFoxTango wrote:

Not sure why you call it a "fear". I believe he will. LI has made noticeable improvements in its OTP and customer service over the last 2-3 years. OCL needs to be watched very closely. Very shortly people will be begging for LI's return once they "experience" Inter and OCL. BW will only cherry pick the profitable routes.



I say "fear" because I am not convinced that Gaston will succeed. Its a pity that LIATs structural problems were not worked out earlier. The fact is that Caribbean gov'ts have no money and the regional private sector is stretched, and its only the Allan Stanford type of foreign investor who will put $$ into Caribbean aviation.

I can only see LI2020 surviving maybe with 30 seat Embraer planes built around an ANU hub with service no further south than BGI. And its BGI operations being oriented to moving people up north and not thinking that they can compete into the SVD, GEO and SLU markets which are the biggest into BGI aside from POS. The ATRs will be too big for the markets left to LI2020. The US Caribbean will be closed to them due to ECCAA's problems.


Maybe I am an optimist, LIAT2020 can do well if the get rid of the ATR72 and keep the ATR42, drop routes they are not competitive in and get a competent management. LIAT2020 cannot be like LI trying to be everything to everyone and running a "bus" service type operation.

caribny wrote:
There is some rumor that the T&T borders might open up after August 15th, by which time (hopefully) the election will be completed and the incumbent gov't remaining in place or a new gov't installed. Whether they will reopen to the US markets is a thought, given that some Caribbean nations are apparently regretting that move, and at least one, SVD, is considering dropping flights from that source. Even the Bahamas has closed its borders to the USA.

So T&T might reopen only to CARICOM, UK, and Canada. They might wait until Sept for the USA, depending on how well FL/TX deal with the pandemic. Given the pandemic in Latin America I dont think that COPA will be back in the near term.

I believe that the US authorities have already denied route rights on the SJU EIS route, maybe even the DOM route, based on representations made by Silver, which is now introducing larger planes into the Eastern Caribbean.


We'll see what happens, but IMO there should be some boarder openings. These lock downs are unproductive and doing significant damage to the economies of the Caribbean. I mean countries are reporting their revenues are down 75%, businesses are closing down permanently and there are other issues that are cropping up.
All ah we is one family
 
caribbean484
Posts: 901
Joined: Sat Jan 06, 2007 1:57 am

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Fri Jul 24, 2020 2:07 am

gunnerman wrote:
There is an odd report of One Caribbean having recently flown three times into GND despite having been informed on multiple occasions by the Grenada Ministry of Tourism and Civil Aviation that the process for obtaining a licence to operate such flights must be followed. It does make you wonder what else this airline hasn't done.


Well I guess the reports are true

Grenadian govt angered by Fly One Caribbean would-be flight
The attempts by Vincentian airline Fly One Caribbean (OCL) Barbados to bring Grenadian students to Grenada has sparked an angry response from the Grenada Government which barred the carrier from landing there.

Now talks have begun between the Grenadian authorities and the carrier to allow it to land there in future.

According to the authorities in St George’s, the airline, which is attempting to help fill the void left by grounded inter-island carrier LIAT, is not welcomed there just yet.

In a harshly worded statement, Grenada’s Ministry of Tourism and Civil Aviation declared that the airline, which was offering tickets for flights into St George’s was expressly forbidden from doing so because OCL had not obtained appropriate licensing to land commercial flights there.

https://barbadostoday.bb/2020/07/23/gre ... be-flight/

Two weeks late with this report

Sky High Aviation will resume its commercial operation next Saturday
Fifteen weeks after the temporary interruption of all regular flights due to the closure of the borders and airspace of the Dominican Republic as a result of the pandemic of the new coronavirus (COVID-19), Sky High Aviation Services scheduled for this weekend the gradual resumption of its commercial passenger operation, serving two Caribbean interregional destinations, Antigua and Tortola. The expectation is that more destinations will soon be incorporated into the current planning of the route network, as the travel restrictions of each country in the region are lifted.

Flight - From - To - Departure - Arrival - Days
DO956 Santo Domingo (SDQ) Antigua (ANU) 10:00 11:20 Saturday
DO957 Saint John (ANU) Santo Domingo (SDQ) 12:05 13:20 Saturday
DO950 Santo Domingo (SDQ) Tortola (EIS) 10:00 10:50 Wednesday and Saturday
DO951 Tortola (EIS) Santo Domingo (SDQ) 12:20 1:40 PM Wednesday and Saturday


Well reopening are happening and yet we don't know when POS will reopen its boarders.

Saba to reopen for visitors from Europe, Canada on October 1
The public entity Saba announced during discussions with the Outbreak Management team that it is aiming to open the island for visitors from Canada and Europe from October 1. Visitors from the United States will be welcome from November 1, Island Governor Jonathan Johnson announced Tuesday in a so-called hospitality update.

https://www.thedailyherald.sx/islands/s ... -october-1
All ah we is one family
 
trini81
Posts: 19
Joined: Tue Sep 04, 2018 8:26 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Fri Jul 24, 2020 2:14 am

Seems like CAL has applied to fly OGL/POS and OGL/ BGI

https://newssourcegy.com/news/caribbean ... e-to-ogle/
 
caribny
Posts: 444
Joined: Sat Mar 16, 2019 1:47 am

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Fri Jul 24, 2020 5:01 am

caribbean484 wrote:
caribny wrote:
LimaFoxTango wrote:

Not sure why you call it a "fear". I believe he will. LI has made noticeable improvements in its OTP and customer service over the last 2-3 years. OCL needs to be watched very closely. Very shortly people will be begging for LI's return once they "experience" Inter and OCL. BW will only cherry pick the profitable routes.



I say "fear" because I am not convinced that Gaston will succeed. Its a pity that LIATs structural problems were not worked out earlier. The fact is that Caribbean gov'ts have no money and the regional private sector is stretched, and its only the Allan Stanford type of foreign investor who will put $$ into Caribbean aviation.


Maybe I am an optimist, LIAT2020 can do well if the get rid of the ATR72 and keep the ATR42, drop routes they are not competitive in and get a competent management. LIAT2020 cannot be like LI trying to be everything to everyone and running a "bus" service type operation.



We'll see what happens, but IMO there should be some boarder openings. These lock downs are unproductive and doing significant damage to the economies of the Caribbean. I mean countries are reporting their revenues are down 75%, businesses are closing down permanently and there are other issues that are cropping up.


The Caribbean is so integrated into the USA that the pandemic would have easily spread, but they dont have the ICUs, and cannot afford the stigma of not being able to deal with the disease. Those who didnt want lockdown in the USA now regret this. Now only the Caribbean and a few other desperate nations want the US passport. Canada doesnt and neither does Europe.

If Canada and Europe, with their highly developed healthcare systems reject US citizens and residents the Caribbean has to be very careful. Jamaica in fact has US visitors on semi lockdown. If they move outside of assigned zones they receive a call and removal back to where they are supposed to be. The Bahamas has canceled all entry by US passport holders. They are just across from SoFL so feel very exposed. Over 80% of the visitors to those 2 nations come from the USA.

Reopening to CARICOM, Canada and Europe is appropriate. The US and Latin America not so. Do you want T&T to become like Ecuador or Peru?.

As to LIAT. I frequently hear that LI should drop "unprofitable" routes. Which ones are these? By the time BW gobbles up the BGI market, leaving the rest to OCL and Inter Carib, not sure what will be left for LI2020. So what profitable routes will LI2020 have around its ANU hub, because that is what will be left by the time they get their act together in 90 days. You bet that Caribbean travelers will be loathe to use them giving the anxieties of those who paid for LI tickets and are unsure whether they will lose their $$.
 
caribny
Posts: 444
Joined: Sat Mar 16, 2019 1:47 am

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Fri Jul 24, 2020 6:47 am

https://www.afar.com/magazine/is-puerto ... e-to-visit

PR scaling back on its borders to the extent that they can. Negative test within 72 hours or 14 day quarantine. Tests are now taking a week on most cases so they are basically telling Statesiders to stay home unless they are willing to self quarantine.

Those in the Caribbean eager to reopen to US residents need to take note.
 
baje427
Posts: 795
Joined: Mon Aug 01, 2011 12:42 am

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Fri Jul 24, 2020 12:49 pm

I think LI 2020 is done for before it even starts. If they actually do get started the profitable routes will have been taken. Its also unlikely these once profitable routes will still be profitable in this environment. Unlike days of old no Caribbean government has the funding to prop up a Liat. The priority for most governments right now is feeding its people. The unemployment rate in Barbados for example has gone to 40% it's going to be hard to justify putting money in LI2020 when people are still having issues receiving unemployment benefits. On the issue of border reopenings we have seen how opening to the US market has worked (it hasn't ).
 
Brickell305
Posts: 1017
Joined: Sat Jun 24, 2017 2:07 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Fri Jul 24, 2020 1:15 pm

baje427 wrote:
I think LI 2020 is done for before it even starts. If they actually do get started the profitable routes will have been taken. Its also unlikely these once profitable routes will still be profitable in this environment. Unlike days of old no Caribbean government has the funding to prop up a Liat. The priority for most governments right now is feeding its people. The unemployment rate in Barbados for example has gone to 40% it's going to be hard to justify putting money in LI2020 when people are still having issues receiving unemployment benefits. On the issue of border reopenings we have seen how opening to the US market has worked (it hasn't ).


I agree. BW, while not perfect, has a better service reputation than LI and with it now moving full speed ahead into the southern Caribbean, LI is going to have a hard time competing. Especially because BW has a much wealthier benefactor in the GoRTT than LI does in the GoAB and greater economies of scale. Also, as you rightly point out, we cannot assume that a route that was profitable pre-COVID will be profitable post-COVID in the short to medium term. We already have the example given by fowlr29 of SXM-CUR which pre COVID had sizable demand but currently does not. Between the economic impact on the islands, fear of travel generally, the decline in business travel, the continued closure of the US Embassy in Barbados, and the cancellation of major festivals all over the Caribbean, what travel demand is there currently? And in addition to that, what of the people that have paid money to LI for tickets that cannot get their money returned? Many of them will put off travel after that experience.
 
caribbean484
Posts: 901
Joined: Sat Jan 06, 2007 1:57 am

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Fri Jul 24, 2020 1:58 pm

caribny wrote:
caribbean484 wrote:
caribny wrote:

As to LIAT. I frequently hear that LI should drop "unprofitable" routes. Which ones are these? By the time BW gobbles up the BGI market, leaving the rest to OCL and Inter Carib, not sure what will be left for LI2020. So what profitable routes will LI2020 have around its ANU hub, because that is what will be left by the time they get their act together in 90 days. You bet that Caribbean travelers will be loathe to use them giving the anxieties of those who paid for LI tickets and are unsure whether they will lose their $$.



baje427 wrote:
I think LI 2020 is done for before it even starts. If they actually do get started the profitable routes will have been taken. Its also unlikely these once profitable routes will still be profitable in this environment. Unlike days of old no Caribbean government has the funding to prop up a Liat. The priority for most governments right now is feeding its people. The unemployment rate in Barbados for example has gone to 40% it's going to be hard to justify putting money in LI2020 when people are still having issues receiving unemployment benefits. On the issue of border reopenings we have seen how opening to the US market has worked (it hasn't ).


Brickell305 wrote:

I agree. BW, while not perfect, has a better service reputation than LI and with it now moving full speed ahead into the southern Caribbean, LI is going to have a hard time competing. Especially because BW has a much wealthier benefactor in the GoRTT than LI does in the GoAB and greater economies of scale. Also, as you rightly point out, we cannot assume that a route that was profitable pre-COVID will be profitable post-COVID in the short to medium term. We already have the example given by fowlr29 of SXM-CUR which pre COVID had sizable demand but currently does not. Between the economic impact on the islands, fear of travel generally, the decline in business travel, the continued closure of the US Embassy in Barbados, and the cancellation of major festivals all over the Caribbean, what travel demand is there currently? And in addition to that, what of the people that have paid money to LI for tickets that cannot get their money returned? Many of them will put off travel after that experience.


That's why I said I am being optimistic, the realist in me sees LIAT2.0 in a very limited role going forward and that's why cutting the fleet in half they may be able to service routes profitably. I also mentioned that they are facing a new reality as CAL appears to be going on a very aggressive expansion plan over the next 12-24 months. Then we have One Caribbean and Inter-Caribbean all vying to take up the slack.

CAL has just applied for OGL-POS-BGI, the last bastion of LI's routes with no competition will now have competition. So LI2.0 will have to have something pretty outstanding in their strategy plan to be viable. They were already complaining that POS-SLU was losing money, POS-BGI they can't compete and the POS-GEO market is difficult despite flying to OGL. The northern Caribbean they have shrank so much they are not doing well there. Then we are in an economic recession and the best case is growth from next year so Gaston Brown will have to find some way to keep them in the air if the do get off.
All ah we is one family
 
Brickell305
Posts: 1017
Joined: Sat Jun 24, 2017 2:07 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Fri Jul 24, 2020 2:33 pm

caribbean484 wrote:
caribny wrote:
caribbean484 wrote:






That's why I said I am being optimistic, the realist in me sees LIAT2.0 in a very limited role going forward and that's why cutting the fleet in half they may be able to service routes profitably. I also mentioned that they are facing a new reality as CAL appears to be going on a very aggressive expansion plan over the next 12-24 months. Then we have One Caribbean and Inter-Caribbean all vying to take up the slack.

CAL has just applied for OGL-POS-BGI, the last bastion of LI's routes with no competition will now have competition. So LI2.0 will have to have something pretty outstanding in their strategy plan to be viable. They were already complaining that POS-SLU was losing money, POS-BGI they can't compete and the POS-GEO market is difficult despite flying to OGL. The northern Caribbean they have shrank so much they are not doing well there. Then we are in an economic recession and the best case is growth from next year so Gaston Brown will have to find some way to keep them in the air if the do get off.


One of the bigger problems for LI 2.0 is that in many instances old LI was too big for its network. Capacity was overly high compared to demand outside of peak periods. The current plan for LI 2.0 is to get rid of three of the ATR72s that are financed and to continue with the other seven planes (2 72s and 5 42s) that are leased. The thing is if they cut back on the southern Caribbean (or get fewer passengers there due to increased competition) and focus on the northern Caribbean, they are still way too big. There's a reason that the airlines that performed better financially in the Northern Caribbean used smaller planes. It's extremely hard to shrink to profitability. You just end up spreading many fixed costs over fewer seat miles. They no longer have three/four governments to run to for handouts. It's going to be very rough going.
 
caribbean484
Posts: 901
Joined: Sat Jan 06, 2007 1:57 am

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Fri Jul 24, 2020 4:14 pm

Brickell305 wrote:
caribbean484 wrote:
caribny wrote:


That's why I said I am being optimistic, the realist in me sees LIAT2.0 in a very limited role going forward and that's why cutting the fleet in half they may be able to service routes profitably. I also mentioned that they are facing a new reality as CAL appears to be going on a very aggressive expansion plan over the next 12-24 months. Then we have One Caribbean and Inter-Caribbean all vying to take up the slack.

CAL has just applied for OGL-POS-BGI, the last bastion of LI's routes with no competition will now have competition. So LI2.0 will have to have something pretty outstanding in their strategy plan to be viable. They were already complaining that POS-SLU was losing money, POS-BGI they can't compete and the POS-GEO market is difficult despite flying to OGL. The northern Caribbean they have shrank so much they are not doing well there. Then we are in an economic recession and the best case is growth from next year so Gaston Brown will have to find some way to keep them in the air if the do get off.


One of the bigger problems for LI 2.0 is that in many instances old LI was too big for its network. Capacity was overly high compared to demand outside of peak periods. The current plan for LI 2.0 is to get rid of three of the ATR72s that are financed and to continue with the other seven planes (2 72s and 5 42s) that are leased. The thing is if they cut back on the southern Caribbean (or get fewer passengers there due to increased competition) and focus on the northern Caribbean, they are still way too big. There's a reason that the airlines that performed better financially in the Northern Caribbean used smaller planes. It's extremely hard to shrink to profitability. You just end up spreading many fixed costs over fewer seat miles. They no longer have three/four governments to run to for handouts. It's going to be very rough going.


Very true, I am not sure how LI 2.0 is going to structure going forward, but there has to be large cuts to workforce, fleet (I still think the ATR72 are too big, 5 ATR42 seems good) and maybe they will have to outsource their heavy maintenance, because a reduced fleet means they will not have enough work to justify keep that inhouse anymore. Either way lots people are going to go home and the jobs program Gaston Brown wants to preserved will be significantly challenged with the reality that LI is being crowded out.

I just check SXM's airport guide to reassure myself of the number of competitors LI faces in the northern Caribbean and its a good few of them. They have Air Sunshine, Costal air, Inter-Caribbean, Trans Anguilla and Winair to contend with from the English speaking, and then a few others from SJU and SDQ. So they have a lot of pressure to deal with in the North and now the South is becoming more crowded, as with the SVD and BGI basically wanting to get out of LI its a tough sell.
All ah we is one family
 
danipawa
Posts: 461
Joined: Sat Oct 01, 2016 1:18 am

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Sat Jul 25, 2020 1:03 am

Dominican Rep to get a new international airport near PUJ, Bavaro Intl:

https://youtu.be/9KzRQFeDSjA
 
fowlr29
Posts: 32
Joined: Sat Jun 27, 2020 1:29 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Sat Jul 25, 2020 2:36 am

Winair to launch ANU to DOM and SXM to DOM with the Twin Otter. Routing will be 3/4 days a week.

SXM - ANU - DOM - SXM and
SXM - DOM - ANU - SXM

More details to follow.
 
caribny
Posts: 444
Joined: Sat Mar 16, 2019 1:47 am

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Sat Jul 25, 2020 2:11 pm

fowlr29 wrote:
Winair to launch ANU to DOM and SXM to DOM with the Twin Otter. Routing will be 3/4 days a week.

SXM - ANU - DOM - SXM and
SXM - DOM - ANU - SXM

More details to follow.



Yes I would expect that. When SKB reopens expect SXM SKB ANU, maybe 2x daily. Many of the SKB ANU are intransit to points further south. I expect BW and/or Inter to get that market. BW had already announced including SKB on their earlier planned milk run. With LI off I expect a more streamlined service nonstop to BGI with connections to SLU, POS and GEO.

I really dont know what will be left for LIAT. They will have to refund $11M in prepaid tickets, and even if they do I bet that many will be scared to use them until they are assured of their viability. With LI out of the way I would expect Inter to restart their USVI service with connections via EIS to SKB, ANU, DOM and SLU.

Intra regional travel will be hard to predict as much of the off season is business, inclusive of visas. Unless they really cut out travel taxes (and not just reducing airport taxes, which might save US$20) I dont see much spike in intra regional, even though travel to the USA will plunge in the near term. Plus intra regional leisure travel is highly seasonal outside of special events. Its basically Easter, Jul/AUG and events based (sports, music, youth/church).

The only space I see for LI2 is filling niches linking the southern Caribbean with the northern, possible as BW will likely focus down south and the smaller carriers will probably not go too far south. Or if they hold off to see if the new entrants under perform, which is a distinct possibility. It will take them a while to get their act together anyway.
 
caribny
Posts: 444
Joined: Sat Mar 16, 2019 1:47 am

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Sat Jul 25, 2020 2:13 pm

danipawa wrote:
Dominican Rep to get a new international airport near PUJ, Bavaro Intl:

https://youtu.be/9KzRQFeDSjA


I guess PUJ is now overloaded.
 
danipawa
Posts: 461
Joined: Sat Oct 01, 2016 1:18 am

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Sat Jul 25, 2020 3:39 pm

Not really, the thing is PUJ is very expensive and really slow with their expansions. Airlines like Air Europa and Azur Russia moved to LRM 1.5 hour away for that reason. This proposal is private too and want to operate with more resonable taxes, so maybe all low cost moving to that terminal.
 
gunnerman
Posts: 1143
Joined: Fri May 19, 2017 7:55 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Sat Jul 25, 2020 8:00 pm

The high court in Antigua has granted a petition allowing for the reorganisation of LIAT, the appointment of an administrator as well as staying all proceedings relating to the liquidation of the company. The administrator is Cleveland Seaforth of accountancy firm BDO who now has sole control of LIAT's assets and is the only person who will negotiate terms with creditors and employees, all of whom will be required to take deep cuts. The government of Antigua and Barbuda is proposing a reinvestment of EC$108 million of which 50% it will guarantee with the remainder coming from other public and private organisations. If the administrator is unable to restructure LIAT it will be liquidated,
 
gunnerman
Posts: 1143
Joined: Fri May 19, 2017 7:55 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Sat Jul 25, 2020 8:22 pm

Here are some details of the Caribbean Airlines flights from BGI to SVD and GND. All flights are operated with the ATR72.

Mondays, Tuesdays, Fridays and Saturdays
BW200 BGI-SVD 1715-1800
BW200 SVD-GND 1855-1930
BW201 GND-BGI 2025-2125

Wednesdays and Sundays
BW204 BGI-GND 0755-0850
BW204 GND-SVD 0945-1025
BW205 SVD-BGI 1125-1210
 
baje427
Posts: 795
Joined: Mon Aug 01, 2011 12:42 am

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Sat Jul 25, 2020 10:16 pm

gunnerman wrote:
Here are some details of the Caribbean Airlines flights from BGI to SVD and GND. All flights are operated with the ATR72.

Mondays, Tuesdays, Fridays and Saturdays
BW200 BGI-SVD 1715-1800
BW200 SVD-GND 1855-1930
BW201 GND-BGI 2025-2125

Wednesdays and Sundays
BW204 BGI-GND 0755-0850
BW204 GND-SVD 0945-1025
BW205 SVD-BGI 1125-1210

The two ATR's are already in BGI I am surprised they didn't start with SLU.
 
caribny
Posts: 444
Joined: Sat Mar 16, 2019 1:47 am

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Sun Jul 26, 2020 9:44 am

danipawa wrote:
Not really, the thing is PUJ is very expensive and really slow with their expansions. Airlines like Air Europa and Azur Russia moved to LRM 1.5 hour away for that reason. This proposal is private too and want to operate with more resonable taxes, so maybe all low cost moving to that terminal.



Based on the accent Spanish investors?
 
caribny
Posts: 444
Joined: Sat Mar 16, 2019 1:47 am

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Sun Jul 26, 2020 9:46 am

baje427 wrote:
gunnerman wrote:
Here are some details of the Caribbean Airlines flights from BGI to SVD and GND. All flights are operated with the ATR72.

Mondays, Tuesdays, Fridays and Saturdays
BW200 BGI-SVD 1715-1800
BW200 SVD-GND 1855-1930
BW201 GND-BGI 2025-2125

Wednesdays and Sundays
BW204 BGI-GND 0755-0850
BW204 GND-SVD 0945-1025
BW205 SVD-BGI 1125-1210

The two ATR's are already in BGI I am surprised they didn't start with SLU.



Probably awaiting permission. SLU BGI is a bigger market than GND BGI.
 
fowlr29
Posts: 32
Joined: Sat Jun 27, 2020 1:29 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Sun Jul 26, 2020 12:37 pm

caribny wrote:
fowlr29 wrote:
Winair to launch ANU to DOM and SXM to DOM with the Twin Otter. Routing will be 3/4 days a week.

SXM - ANU - DOM - SXM and
SXM - DOM - ANU - SXM

More details to follow.



Yes I would expect that. When SKB reopens expect SXM SKB ANU, maybe 2x daily. Many of the SKB ANU are intransit to points further south. I expect BW and/or Inter to get that market. BW had already announced including SKB on their earlier planned milk run. With LI off I expect a more streamlined service nonstop to BGI with connections to SLU, POS and GEO.

I really dont know what will be left for LIAT. They will have to refund $11M in prepaid tickets, and even if they do I bet that many will be scared to use them until they are assured of their viability. With LI out of the way I would expect Inter to restart their USVI service with connections via EIS to SKB, ANU, DOM and SLU.

Intra regional travel will be hard to predict as much of the off season is business, inclusive of visas. Unless they really cut out travel taxes (and not just reducing airport taxes, which might save US$20) I dont see much spike in intra regional, even though travel to the USA will plunge in the near term. Plus intra regional leisure travel is highly seasonal outside of special events. Its basically Easter, Jul/AUG and events based (sports, music, youth/church).

The only space I see for LI2 is filling niches linking the southern Caribbean with the northern, possible as BW will likely focus down south and the smaller carriers will probably not go too far south. Or if they hold off to see if the new entrants under perform, which is a distinct possibility. It will take them a while to get their act together anyway.


SKB - ANU won't happen 2x daily, maybe a couple of times a week similar to the Dominica operation. Selling SKB - ANU takes away yield from either SXM- SKB or SXM - ANU depending on what leg the SKB-ANU (or vice-versa) is added onto as they have to block out seats on the leg out of SXM. So SKB- ANU, if it does happen, would be low frequency. Also, an additional leg between SKB and ANU takes the aircraft away from doing SBH flights. One SXM - SKB - ANU flight and back would take the same amount of time to do as 4/5 SBH flights. There's slack in the schedule right now, but come November it might be a different story. SBH is the primary money earner. SKB- ANU could run 1x daily during the night to alleviate the SBH problem but yield would still be a concern on SXM- ANU and SXM - SKB if daily would be done. It might happen when SKB opens, just maybe twice a week.

Flights are now for sale on Winair's website for Dominica starting August 8th. SXM - DOM - ANU - SXM on Thursdays, SXM-ANU-DOM-SXM on Saturdays. All other SXM-ANUs are turns.
 
gunnerman
Posts: 1143
Joined: Fri May 19, 2017 7:55 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Sun Jul 26, 2020 1:15 pm

LI used to operate three daily nonstops from BGI to SLU (LI374, LI370 and LI368), and I'd expect BW to do a daily. If One Caribbean does establish a base in BGI we should see the same route network as BW's.
 
caribny
Posts: 444
Joined: Sat Mar 16, 2019 1:47 am

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Sun Jul 26, 2020 6:03 pm

fowlr29 wrote:

SKB - ANU won't happen 2x daily, maybe a couple of times a week similar to the Dominica operation. Selling SKB - ANU takes away yield from either SXM- SKB or SXM - ANU depending on what leg the SKB-ANU (or vice-versa) is added onto as they have to block out seats on the leg out of SXM. So SKB- ANU, if it does happen, would be low frequency. Also, an additional leg between SKB and ANU takes the aircraft away from doing SBH flights. One SXM - SKB - ANU flight and back would take the same amount of time to do as 4/5 SBH flights. There's slack in the schedule right now, but come November it might be a different story. SBH is the primary money earner. SKB- ANU could run 1x daily during the night to alleviate the SBH problem but yield would still be a concern on SXM- ANU and SXM - SKB if daily would be done. It might happen when SKB opens, just maybe twice a week.

Flights are now for sale on Winair's website for Dominica starting August 8th. SXM - DOM - ANU - SXM on Thursdays, SXM-ANU-DOM-SXM on Saturdays. All other SXM-ANUs are turns.


If WM cannot serve ANU SKB and ANU DOM properly then someone else will do so. The DOM ANU sector is the largest intra Caribbean sector on the ANU route, and ANU SKB comes #4 behind DOM, POS. and BGI. DOM ANU merits at least 2xdaily given that there is not only local travel but ANU remains a large hub for DOM. In fact DOM will need at least one to be a 30+ seater to handle connections from the UK. ANU SKB merits at least daily and not at midnight either. Maybe Inter will jump into that market is WM is unable to do so.

It appears as if WM is unable to fill the gap in the northern Caribbean so there is scope for LI2.0 with a 30 seat plane with a focus on service within the northern Caribbean and connecting these south. SKB gets around 27k visitors from the Caribbean and when one adds outbound travel to other parts of the Caribbean this is probably around 40k...
 
caribny
Posts: 444
Joined: Sat Mar 16, 2019 1:47 am

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Sun Jul 26, 2020 6:16 pm

gunnerman wrote:
LI used to operate three daily nonstops from BGI to SLU (LI374, LI370 and LI368), and I'd expect BW to do a daily. If One Caribbean does establish a base in BGI we should see the same route network as BW's.



This is where OCL/Inter will have an advantage of BW. I can well imagine that BGI SLU is a route which appreciates frequency so the airline running several 19/30 seats daily might beat the other just running a daily 68 seater. Ditto for BGI SVD. GND BGI is less busy so they might tolerate a daily flight, plus Grenadians are more tied into T&T so BW might be a preference.

I dont see 3 airlines on these routes so the bet will be which of the 2 smaller carriers is forced out.
 
baje427
Posts: 795
Joined: Mon Aug 01, 2011 12:42 am

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Sun Jul 26, 2020 6:42 pm

We have to see how Bajans respond to JY and OCL I am inclined to think if prices are close Bajans will go with the recognised BW.
 
fowlr29
Posts: 32
Joined: Sat Jun 27, 2020 1:29 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Sun Jul 26, 2020 8:00 pm

Winair doesn't have the resources, both financial and otherwise in it's current state to take up LIs slack in the Northern Caribbean. They've got 3 Twin Otters (technically 4, but one has to return to the lessors in a month) of which 2 are needed on any day that Air France comes to SXM; which is currently 3 days a week. Come November that goes up to 5 days a week. Flights to SBH are packed on those days, even right now. If LI 2020 can get past the financial hurdles then they can solve the Northern Caribbean's connectivity needs. Winair can help in the short term but they aren't the solution without getting substantial investment for different aircraft. Does InterCaribbean have 5th/7th freedom rights out of ANU? If not, would they get approved when Gaston Browne is set on LI 2020?
 
Brickell305
Posts: 1017
Joined: Sat Jun 24, 2017 2:07 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Sun Jul 26, 2020 8:12 pm

caribny wrote:
fowlr29 wrote:

SKB - ANU won't happen 2x daily, maybe a couple of times a week similar to the Dominica operation. Selling SKB - ANU takes away yield from either SXM- SKB or SXM - ANU depending on what leg the SKB-ANU (or vice-versa) is added onto as they have to block out seats on the leg out of SXM. So SKB- ANU, if it does happen, would be low frequency. Also, an additional leg between SKB and ANU takes the aircraft away from doing SBH flights. One SXM - SKB - ANU flight and back would take the same amount of time to do as 4/5 SBH flights. There's slack in the schedule right now, but come November it might be a different story. SBH is the primary money earner. SKB- ANU could run 1x daily during the night to alleviate the SBH problem but yield would still be a concern on SXM- ANU and SXM - SKB if daily would be done. It might happen when SKB opens, just maybe twice a week.

Flights are now for sale on Winair's website for Dominica starting August 8th. SXM - DOM - ANU - SXM on Thursdays, SXM-ANU-DOM-SXM on Saturdays. All other SXM-ANUs are turns.


If WM cannot serve ANU SKB and ANU DOM properly then someone else will do so. The DOM ANU sector is the largest intra Caribbean sector on the ANU route, and ANU SKB comes #4 behind DOM, POS. and BGI. DOM ANU merits at least 2xdaily given that there is not only local travel but ANU remains a large hub for DOM. In fact DOM will need at least one to be a 30+ seater to handle connections from the UK. ANU SKB merits at least daily and not at midnight either. Maybe Inter will jump into that market is WM is unable to do so.

It appears as if WM is unable to fill the gap in the northern Caribbean so there is scope for LI2.0 with a 30 seat plane with a focus on service within the northern Caribbean and connecting these south. SKB gets around 27k visitors from the Caribbean and when one adds outbound travel to other parts of the Caribbean this is probably around 40k...

The thing is LI won’t have 30 seat planes. They’re essentially stuck with the leased ATRs they have now. Any plan to re-fleet (and therefore re-train pilots) is a non starter as LI doesn’t have the resources to do that. The new LI will have to make it work with ATRs, a more aggressive BW and one government on which to rely.
 
caribny
Posts: 444
Joined: Sat Mar 16, 2019 1:47 am

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Sun Jul 26, 2020 9:19 pm

Brickell305 wrote:


The thing is LI won’t have 30 seat planes. They’re essentially stuck with the leased ATRs they have now. Any plan to re-fleet (and therefore re-train pilots) is a non starter as LI doesn’t have the resources to do that. The new LI will have to make it work with ATRs, a more aggressive BW and one government on which to rely.



Gaston's plan is to right size down to smaller planes, . The reality is that the southern Caribbean will no longer be available to LI. The northern Caribbean cannot really absorb even the ATR42s. WM cannot service the northern Caribbean as SBH is their priority and they will be a plane down. Inter loves the grandiose and is betting on BGI even though that is far from its EIS base, and some might argue replacing LI up north might be more appropriate, given their fleet of 30/19 seat planes. The BGI hub can absorb 2 airlines at best so one of the 3 will have to go and it isnt going to be BW.

It might well be that SKB and DOM might have to cough up some money for L!2.0. The regional market is the largest for DOM (though most is on ferries from the French islands) and the 2nd largest for SKB, which is also the HQ for the ECCB/ECCX. The latter will need reliable access to ANU, SLU, BGI and POS. Its far north and its market is somewhat thin, so it doesnt have the best bargaining position.
 
caribny
Posts: 444
Joined: Sat Mar 16, 2019 1:47 am

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Sun Jul 26, 2020 9:27 pm

baje427 wrote:
We have to see how Bajans respond to JY and OCL I am inclined to think if prices are close Bajans will go with the recognised BW.


Looking at BWs current BGI/SVD/GND route, and while admitting that this is transitional as it awaits full build out of its BGI hub, and a recovery from the pandemics, there will be space for at least one of the 2 smaller carriers. If BW just has one morning flight BGI SLU and there is demand for an afternoon/evening flight someone will capture that market. Its only a 30 minute flight after all. The question will be whether BGI SLU can justify two 72s daily on BW.

The cost structures of these smaller carriers will be key, and I assume that they dont have union staff as BW does.

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