gunnerman wrote:

Stepping into the void left by LIAT on the BGI-SLU route, both Air Antilles (using the ATR 42) and Caribbean Airlines (ATR 72) plan to start operating from 8 August and 9 August respectively. Air Antilles will be daily, Caribbean Airlines will be on Wednesdays, Fridays and Sundays.

3S822 BGI-SLU 1020-1100
3S824 SLU-BGI 1740-1820

BW208 BGI-SLU 1325-1405
BW209 SLU-BGI 1500-1540

3S will be 2xD on the BGI SLU, one continuing to DOM and the other presumably to FDF. Inter Caribbean also 2xD with a 30 seat plane. BW 3xW. This is more capacity that this route has seen for a long time, in an era when many will either lack the means or the desire to travel. No visa trips and less business travel.

Inter Carib also says daily BGI DOM (I presume nonstop) and GND 10xW competing against BW. I wonder what BW will do with their lower frequency and less direct service, though they will benefit from OGL feed once Guyana reopens which should be at the end of the month.

JY has probably the best sized equipment for these times. Does anyone know how the loads are on JY or BW?

baje427 wrote:

JY has probably the best sized equipment for these times. Does anyone know how the loads are on JY or BW?

Im told BW's loads are in the teens and often below 10 pax per flight.

LimaFoxTango wrote:

baje427 wrote:

JY has probably the best sized equipment for these times. Does anyone know how the loads are on JY or BW?

Im told BW's loads are in the teens and often below 10 pax per flight.

Not surprising in the least. Good luck to all the carriers expanding now. They’ll need it. It’s gonna be a while before intra-regional travel returns to normal.

JY has the right sized planes. BW has a stronger financial base. We will see how that works. BGI SLU is a blood bath.

Brickell305 wrote:

LimaFoxTango wrote:

baje427 wrote:

JY has probably the best sized equipment for these times. Does anyone know how the loads are on JY or BW?

Im told BW's loads are in the teens and often below 10 pax per flight.

Not surprising in the least. Good luck to all the carriers expanding now. They’ll need it. It’s gonna be a while before intra-regional travel returns to normal.

Goes back to what I was saying a couple of weeks ago. Nobody is travelling within the islands; it's bad right now. JY and 3S will be better positioned than BW will be in operating out of BGI. JY because they have equipment that is better suited to the current market, and 3S because, (1) they will operate the faster and hence cheaper ATR42 when compared to BW, (2) they will tag either FDF or PTP onto the legs that originate/end in BGI providing more O&D as well as connecting traffic and (3) they will be cheaper than BW as they have a lower cost base.

Yes. BW is better capitalized, but how long will that last for? They've got to realize at some point that protecting their financial resources is more important than throwing money away in a very limited EC market.

LimaFoxTango wrote:

baje427 wrote:

JY has probably the best sized equipment for these times. Does anyone know how the loads are on JY or BW?

Im told BW's loads are in the teens and often below 10 pax per flight.

More than I expected to be honest, but I have yet to see CAL or JY advertising locally I have seen people sharing 3S's fares on social media however.

fowlr29 wrote:

Brickell305 wrote:

LimaFoxTango wrote:

Im told BW's loads are in the teens and often below 10 pax per flight.

Not surprising in the least. Good luck to all the carriers expanding now. They’ll need it. It’s gonna be a while before intra-regional travel returns to normal.

Goes back to what I was saying a couple of weeks ago. Nobody is travelling within the islands; it's bad right now. JY and 3S will be better positioned than BW will be in operating out of BGI. JY because they have equipment that is better suited to the current market, and 3S because, (1) they will operate the faster and hence cheaper ATR42 when compared to BW, (2) they will tag either FDF or PTP onto the legs that originate/end in BGI providing more O&D as well as connecting traffic and (3) they will be cheaper than BW as they have a lower cost base.

Yes. BW is better capitalized, but how long will that last for? They've got to realize at some point that protecting their financial resources is more important than throwing money away in a very limited EC market.

I think we will see how determined JY is to win over the BGI market. Are they willing and able to sustain losses in the short to medium term to become the main travel option for regional travel out of BGI? I don't think BW will have as hard a time as you think as BW is a known entity in BGI and within the Southern Caribbean. By many, it will be seen as a natural replacement to LI. JY is an unknown entity that will now need to make a name for itself. However, if JY is willing and able to stick it out, it might do very well and eventually BW may no longer see the fight as worth it and divert resources elsewhere. 3S should be fine as they will focus on the islands with high demand from the French islands and stay mainly within their wheelhouse.

Brickell305 wrote:

fowlr29 wrote:

Brickell305 wrote:

Not surprising in the least. Good luck to all the carriers expanding now. They’ll need it. It’s gonna be a while before intra-regional travel returns to normal.

Goes back to what I was saying a couple of weeks ago. Nobody is travelling within the islands; it's bad right now. JY and 3S will be better positioned than BW will be in operating out of BGI. JY because they have equipment that is better suited to the current market, and 3S because, (1) they will operate the faster and hence cheaper ATR42 when compared to BW, (2) they will tag either FDF or PTP onto the legs that originate/end in BGI providing more O&D as well as connecting traffic and (3) they will be cheaper than BW as they have a lower cost base.

Yes. BW is better capitalized, but how long will that last for? They've got to realize at some point that protecting their financial resources is more important than throwing money away in a very limited EC market.

I think we will see how determined JY is to win over the BGI market. Are they willing and able to sustain losses in the short to medium term to become the main travel option for regional travel out of BGI? I don't think BW will have as hard a time as you think as BW is a known entity in BGI and within the Southern Caribbean. By many, it will be seen as a natural replacement to LI. JY is an unknown entity that will now need to make a name for itself. However, if JY is willing and able to stick it out, it might do very well and eventually BW may no longer see the fight as worth it and divert resources elsewhere. 3S should be fine as they will focus on the islands with high demand from the French islands and stay mainly within their wheelhouse.

When talking about the short-term BW is already having a hard time though. Everyone will, but BW is at a competitive disadvantage because of the reasons mentioned above. Less than 10 pax on a consistent basis isn't having it easy. Would they be able to make it work if traffic was at the levels it was at pre-covid? Yes. Mostly anybody would be able to do that. When Trinidad's borders reopen that may help depending on what they do, but does it make sense to be throwing money to connect the Eastern Caribbean for the sake of brand loyalty when you already have the brand recognition needed to do well in the future? JY and 3S need to prove themselves committed to BGI, but does BW?

Talking about the long-term now. After Trinidad's borders reopen, what is BW going to do with BGI? Trinidadians aren't going to want to go to Barbados in order to fly to St.Lucia, when they had direct flights in the past, is BW going to leave the flights separate or combine them? Same applies to the other islands as well. If they leave them separate the advantage of Trinidad's borders reopening to trying to make up the numbers on the Barbados flights is diminished, and 3S' position remains better positioned as FDF and PTP are different markets than POS.

Will be interesting to see what comes out of the Caribsky Alliance now that LIAT is no longer flying. 3S and WM will continue the arrangement, and LIAT wasn't a strong partner in the alliance, but they definitely helped the arrangement somewhat. What's interesting is that interCaribbean has been invited to join in the past, but they weren't interested.

fowlr29 wrote:

Brickell305 wrote:

fowlr29 wrote:

Goes back to what I was saying a couple of weeks ago. Nobody is travelling within the islands; it's bad right now. JY and 3S will be better positioned than BW will be in operating out of BGI. JY because they have equipment that is better suited to the current market, and 3S because, (1) they will operate the faster and hence cheaper ATR42 when compared to BW, (2) they will tag either FDF or PTP onto the legs that originate/end in BGI providing more O&D as well as connecting traffic and (3) they will be cheaper than BW as they have a lower cost base.

Yes. BW is better capitalized, but how long will that last for? They've got to realize at some point that protecting their financial resources is more important than throwing money away in a very limited EC market.

I think we will see how determined JY is to win over the BGI market. Are they willing and able to sustain losses in the short to medium term to become the main travel option for regional travel out of BGI? I don't think BW will have as hard a time as you think as BW is a known entity in BGI and within the Southern Caribbean. By many, it will be seen as a natural replacement to LI. JY is an unknown entity that will now need to make a name for itself. However, if JY is willing and able to stick it out, it might do very well and eventually BW may no longer see the fight as worth it and divert resources elsewhere. 3S should be fine as they will focus on the islands with high demand from the French islands and stay mainly within their wheelhouse.

When talking about the short-term BW is already having a hard time though. Less than 10 pax on a consistent basis isn't having it easy. Would they be able to make it work if traffic was at the levels it was at pre-covid? Yes. Mostly anybody would be able to do that. In the short-term they are most definitely at a disadvantage because of the reasons I mentioned above. When Trinidad's borders reopen that may help depending on what they do, but does it make sense to be throwing money to connect the Eastern Caribbean for the sake of brand loyalty when you already have the brand recognition needed to do well in the future? JY and 3S need to prove themselves committed to BGI, but does BW?

Talking about the long-term now. After Trinidad's borders reopen, what is BW going to do with BGI? Trinidadians aren't going to want to go to Barbados in order to fly to St.Lucia, when they had direct flights in the past, is BW going to leave the flights separate or combine them? Same applies to the other islands as well. If they leave them separate the advantage of Trinidad's borders reopening to trying to make up the numbers on the Barbados flights is diminished, and 3S' position remains better positioned as FDF and PTP are different markets than POS.

Will be interesting to see what comes out of the Caribsky Alliance now that LIAT is no longer flying. 3S and WM will continue the arrangement, and LIAT wasn't a strong partner in the alliance, but they definitely helped the arrangement somewhat. What's interesting is that interCaribbean has been invited to join in the past, but they weren't interested.

Ok. I get you. I agree in the short term, it will definitely be rough going for BW. I do think they need to show a presence though even if just to show the market and government of BGI that they are committed. I suspect if BW and other carriers simply waited until things returned to normal to then ramp up operations, there would have been a stronger clamor from the general public and thus the government of BGI for the return of LI, that for all its flaws, could be depended upon to serve the market in both good times and bad. I don't think BW will route POS pax through BGI to get to the other islands. Not even LI used to do that. What will likely be the case is that a crew/plane could be routed POS-SLU-BGI-SLU-POS for example to serve separate and distinct POS-SLU and SLU-BGI flights and returns, to supplement the flights they can do direct from the BGI base.

Brickell305 wrote:

fowlr29 wrote:

Brickell305 wrote:

Not surprising in the least. Good luck to all the carriers expanding now. They’ll need it. It’s gonna be a while before intra-regional travel returns to normal.

Goes back to what I was saying a couple of weeks ago. Nobody is travelling within the islands; it's bad right now. JY and 3S will be better positioned than BW will be in operating out of BGI. JY because they have equipment that is better suited to the current market, and 3S because, (1) they will operate the faster and hence cheaper ATR42 when compared to BW, (2) they will tag either FDF or PTP onto the legs that originate/end in BGI providing more O&D as well as connecting traffic and (3) they will be cheaper than BW as they have a lower cost base.

Yes. BW is better capitalized, but how long will that last for? They've got to realize at some point that protecting their financial resources is more important than throwing money away in a very limited EC market.

I think we will see how determined JY is to win over the BGI market. Are they willing and able to sustain losses in the short to medium term to become the main travel option for regional travel out of BGI? I don't think BW will have as hard a time as you think as BW is a known entity in BGI and within the Southern Caribbean. By many, it will be seen as a natural replacement to LI. JY is an unknown entity that will now need to make a name for itself. However, if JY is willing and able to stick it out, it might do very well and eventually BW may no longer see the fight as worth it and divert resources elsewhere. 3S should be fine as they will focus on the islands with high demand from the French islands and stay mainly within their wheelhouse.

The issue of branding isnt as major as some imply. BW doesnt have the branding that BWIA once had. At its peak BWIA had flights to just about everywhere that BGI people wanted to fly to, even to SLU/SVD. But that was over 15 years ago. The only BGI people who use BW are those traveling to POS or KIN. They will need to add BW to the repertoire for travel to other islands much as JY will have to.

So JY doesnt have a disadvantage, provided that it has the financial capacity to absorb the losses as the markets recover. They have the motivation because JY has been talking about entering these markets for several years. People will explore new options with the demise of LI from the BGI routes. Fares and scheduling will be key. If JY offers lower fares and more flexible schedules they can make their mark. The only one that I dont see going anywhere will be OCL, which still promotes itself as a charter and I doubt has the infrastructure to offer the level of service that those using scheduled carriers will demand.

Are regional gov'ts serious about reducing travel taxes? LI used to offer some very low fares if one booked well in advance and yet the total fare was still high because taxes/fees then went to 60% of the total. I think that regional gov'ts need to aim at these costs being nor more than 20% of the total fare for intraregional travel, and they will need to make this a priority.

3S is limited in scope, just to SLU and DOM in addition to the French islands. I can see them having to move their 2xd to daily, if they havent already done so.

This is a case of too much capacity in a short period while still being in a pandemic. Each Airline wants to get in on the void created by LI without knowing what remains of the market due to COVID-19. BW is taking the more cautious approach in terms of frequency but the 68 seat capacity ATR72 is a lot at this time. Don't see much regional traffic returning for another 3 months by which time LI 2020 may also be looking to restart.

Rumors that CAL are sending back 4 737's. Crew from the 737 being put back onto the ATR. Anybody can confirm this?

windian425 wrote:

This is a case of too much capacity in a short period while still being in a pandemic. Each Airline wants to get in on the void created by LI without knowing what remains of the market due to COVID-19. BW is taking the more cautious approach in terms of frequency but the 68 seat capacity ATR72 is a lot at this time. Don't see much regional traffic returning for another 3 months by which time LI 2020 may also be looking to restart.

If everyone rushes to BGI/POS hubs and ignores the rest of the market there may actually be a need for LI2020. I suspect that SKB might have to give Gaston some favors if they wish connectivity. Lying way to the north and with everyone having a BGI focus the northern end of LI's network is being neglected.

One issue is that the excitement of the south might have meant that these markets might have already been overserved by LI and BW. Some time ago when LI had some aircraft problems almost all the consolidations were down south. Did POS GND really merit 4xD flights? I bet that BWs existing flights to GND/SLU from POS can already absorb every thing, even at pre COVID levels.

Also a significant % of BGIs market isnt O&D but as a hub, which is why LI had its own transfer facilities. Not sure if any carrier will have the feed that LI had so there will be less transfer business. So more mouths trying to gobble up a smaller plate of food.

And now we have BW and JY competing, with 3S on certain routes as well. I dont take OCL seriously, even though SVD is trying to protect it.

fowlr29 wrote:

Rumors that CAL are sending back 4 737's. Crew from the 737 being put back onto the ATR. Anybody can confirm this?

If true this means a significant reduction of routes. Well we know that FLL is already gone. JFK MBJ most likely gone.

caribny wrote:

Also a significant % of BGIs market isnt O&D but as a hub, which is why LI had its own transfer facilities. Not sure if any carrier will have the feed that LI had so there will be less transfer business. So more mouths trying to gobble up a smaller plate of food.

This reminds me that LIAT used to use gate 9, really handy for connecting passengers who would just go there and thus bypass immigation. Are these new airlines using gate 9?

gunnerman wrote:

caribny wrote:

Also a significant % of BGIs market isnt O&D but as a hub, which is why LI had its own transfer facilities. Not sure if any carrier will have the feed that LI had so there will be less transfer business. So more mouths trying to gobble up a smaller plate of food.

This reminds me that LIAT used to use gate 9, really handy for connecting passengers who would just go there and thus bypass immigation. Are these new airlines using gate 9?

I guess that will still be available but they will have less feed than LI had so fewer people will need this. LI had connecting banks. Will BW? It will be a few people travelling between GND and SLU.

gunnerman wrote:

caribny wrote:

Also a significant % of BGIs market isnt O&D but as a hub, which is why LI had its own transfer facilities. Not sure if any carrier will have the feed that LI had so there will be less transfer business. So more mouths trying to gobble up a smaller plate of food.

This reminds me that LIAT used to use gate 9, really handy for connecting passengers who would just go there and thus bypass immigation. Are these new airlines using gate 9?

I am not sure I know the airport is using a space around gate 14 to handle incoming passengers I am not sure if this is solely for international flights however.

fowlr29 wrote:

Rumors that CAL are sending back 4 737's. Crew from the 737 being put back onto the ATR. Anybody can confirm this?

Good move if so. If there is an exit clause/ expiry of any of the leases BW should definitely take advantage. Should be lots of available frames to pick up In short notice when things start to pick back up.

https://www.facebook.com/interCaribbean ... tn__=EHH-R

InterCaribbean's updated route map includes Barbados to Kingston, Santo Domingo, Guyana, Trinidad, and Antigua. Guess E145 operations to Kingston and Santo.

Interesting to see nothing else added out of SXM and ANU but I wonder how BW will compete with JY's more robust Caribbean network.

Winair's first flights to Dominica seemed to do well on Saturday as they had to operate an additional SXM - DOM flight that wasn't originally planned. Only the SXM - ANU - DOM sector is scheduled for Saturday's. Hopefully bookings remain good so the airline can continue adding frequencies and/or other routes into the EC.

The opening of borders in the Cayman Islands has been delayed again until 1st October 2020, and it is increasingly likely they will remain closed through year end. In the meantime KX and BA continue to provide services, but it appears London flights may start terminating at Gatwick... which is unfortunate...

KX will continue their flights to MIA, KIN, and LCE as well as inter-island services.

When commercial service does resume, how long of a lead time will airlines need to resume service?

fowlr29 wrote:

https://www.facebook.com/interCaribbeanAirways/photos/a.10151505884972097/10157220962617097/?type=3&eid=ARD5diDW2gNL3BTmU4bFUW9s2k5VW0jyeIYMBUW0sZoXIftOgO2ZdeVzMJWMFk2MOVPSyXqonmv5C77j&__tn__=EHH-R

InterCaribbean's updated route map includes Barbados to Kingston, Santo Domingo, Guyana, Trinidad, and Antigua. Guess E145 operations to Kingston and Santo.

Interesting to see nothing else added out of SXM and ANU but I wonder how BW will compete with JY's more robust Caribbean network.

Winair's first flights to Dominica seemed to do well on Saturday as they had to operate an additional SXM - DOM flight that wasn't originally planned. Only the SXM - ANU - DOM sector is scheduled for Saturday's. Hopefully bookings remain good so the airline can continue adding frequencies and/or other routes into the EC.

Their expansion is rapid-fire... how is it being sustained? I can't imagine they have cash to throw around.

Caymanair wrote:

The opening of borders in the Cayman Islands has been delayed again until 1st October 2020, and it is increasingly likely they will remain closed through year end. In the meantime KX and BA continue to provide services, but it appears London flights may start terminating at Gatwick... which is unfortunate...

Why would BA switch to LGW? I'd have thought that BA needs to keep using as many LHR slots as possible.

gunnerman wrote:

Caymanair wrote:

The opening of borders in the Cayman Islands has been delayed again until 1st October 2020, and it is increasingly likely they will remain closed through year end. In the meantime KX and BA continue to provide services, but it appears London flights may start terminating at Gatwick... which is unfortunate...

Why would BA switch to LGW? I'd have thought that BA needs to keep using as many LHR slots as possible.

This isn't schedule commercial service, this is the airbridge service that is managed by the Governor's office. Perhaps it has to do with the aircraft they have 'chartered'? I'm hoping that when BA resumes its regular service we will be back at Heathrow.

BA will resume flights from LGW to MBJ on 13 October, twice-weekly on Tuesdays and Saturdays using the 777-200ER. This is the same schedule as the previous service which was terminated in March 2012 which in turn came after the termination of the four-weekly LGW-KIN-MBJ flights in April 2002. BA is undoubtedly taking advantage of VS's failure to reinstate its LGW-MBJ flights. The collapse of Thomas Cook also means that Thomas Cook Airlines no longer flies to MBJ.

There will be 336 seats in three cabins as follows:
Club World (32 seats)
World Traveller Plus (52)
World Traveller (252)

British Airways will resume a year-round direct daily service from London Heathrow to Barbados on October 17, following a 15-year hiatus. Heathrow service will be operated by a four-class B777-200 aircraft and is expected to boost traffic to the Caribbean island.

https://www.businesstraveller.com/busin ... s-service/

The last time BA operated subsonic jets from LHR to BGI was the 744 on Saturdays in the winter until the end of March 2004, afterwards all additional subsonics were more 777-200ERs from LGW. (It used to be good for planespotters in the winter on Saturdays as Concorde would be the first to arrive in the morning from LHR after a 4-hour flight, followed by a 772 from LGW and then a 744 from LHR.) The new 772 service from LHR will complement the daily 772 from LGW. The number of seats is almost the same (236 from LGW, 235 from LHR). Here's the configuration (LGW/LHR).

First 14/8
Club World 48/49
World Traveller Plus 40/40
World Traveller 134/138

BWA900 wrote:

British Airways will resume a year-round direct daily service from London Heathrow to Barbados on October 17, following a 15-year hiatus. Heathrow service will be operated by a four-class B777-200 aircraft and is expected to boost traffic to the Caribbean island.

https://www.businesstraveller.com/busin ... s-service/

The other point to note is that while LHR-BGI becomes daily year round, LGW-BGI becomes winter seasonal and ends in April.

The last LGW-BGI flight is scheduled for 18 April (so double-daily to BGI ends on that date). No other Caribbean destination is planned to switch away from LGW.

Intercaribbean land its 10th E120 https://www.flightradar24.com/data/flig ... w#2539f9f3

4 ERJ145LR more to be added too

danipawa wrote:

Intercaribbean land its 10th E120 https://www.flightradar24.com/data/flig ... w#2539f9f3

4 ERJ145LR more to be added too

Interesting I think they should take a more cautious approach to this expansion.

baje427 wrote:

danipawa wrote:

Intercaribbean land its 10th E120 https://www.flightradar24.com/data/flig ... w#2539f9f3

4 ERJ145LR more to be added too

Interesting I think they should take a more cautious approach to this expansion.

They are basing at least 4 E120 and 1 ERJ at BGI as eastern HUB, besides they are getting a dominican AOC to base 4 more E120, 2 ERJ out of SDQ, the rest to PLS and EIS.

danipawa wrote:

baje427 wrote:

danipawa wrote:

Intercaribbean land its 10th E120 https://www.flightradar24.com/data/flig ... w#2539f9f3

4 ERJ145LR more to be added too

Interesting I think they should take a more cautious approach to this expansion.

They are basing at least 4 E120 and 1 ERJ at BGI as eastern HUB, besides they are getting a dominican AOC to base 4 more E120, 2 ERJ out of SDQ, the rest to PLS and EIS.

Where will they be sending the ERJ to? And yes I do wonder about their rapid expansion. They are moving into new markets so can ill afford inefficiencies.

T&T is now in a "pandemic panic" with just under 600 cases, maybe 2/3 still active. Yes I know that seems puny when compared to the DR with just under 87k cases, now ranking #32, but I dont think that T&T is opening soon. I am also not sure of Guyana. These are the two largest sources of travel in the Eastern Caribbean. BGI is actually more important as a destination than as a source market, so I am not sure how much travel there will be in the near term to absorb all of this, especially the ERJ.

The ERJ out of Barbados is to Kingston and Santo Domingo.

danipawa wrote:

baje427 wrote:

danipawa wrote:

Intercaribbean land its 10th E120 https://www.flightradar24.com/data/flig ... w#2539f9f3

4 ERJ145LR more to be added too

Interesting I think they should take a more cautious approach to this expansion.

They are basing at least 4 E120 and 1 ERJ at BGI as eastern HUB, besides they are getting a dominican AOC to base 4 more E120, 2 ERJ out of SDQ, the rest to PLS and EIS.

Im told getting an AOC from the DR has been proving more difficult than thought for InterCaribbean. Not sure if that's going to come off anytime soon.

fowlr29 wrote:

The ERJ out of Barbados is to Kingston and Santo Domingo.

to


Can they compete with BW to KIN and is there currently enough traffic to SDQ?

I think interCaribbean can compete with BW, primarily on price as they have a lower unit cost, and also as they have a strong northern Caribbean network. The Kingston flight should provide connections to Havana, Santiago de Cuba, the Turks and Caicos and the rest of their network. It won't be hard for them to make an ERJ145 work in my opinion, between the O&D traffic between Barbados and Kingston they will also be able to leverage their Barbados network (DOM, SLU, GND, and eventually, POS, GEO and ANU) to connect to their northern network. Shouldn't be hard to do.

As to the market between Barbados and Santo Domingo I don't think it's O&D traffic they are targeting here at all, but rather building connecting traffic between the eastern Caribbean and northern Caribbean networks.

BW already does HAV and will be back as soon as Cuba and T&T reopen, and they offer connections from GEO GND and BGI How many from the southern Caribbean travel to T&C? I will assume that with reopening BW will reinstate its NAS POS route, again with BGI and GEO connections. So these routes will have to work based on O&D and with all that is going on aI dont see much room for discretionary travel.

Inter Caribbean has a very high rate of expansion and their abysmal Tripadvisor rating I suspect is because their infrastructure and staffing arent adequate to back this. How is this being financed, and how did they fare during this period when even larger carriers are being stressed? I can see their BGI hub to nearby islands doing well, and in fact they will be the likeliest LIAT replacement. BW may well decide to offer a lighter presence out of BGI as their aircraft are too big to offer the nimble scheduling that Inter Carib can, provided that their service standards are better than that reported out of EIS.

Longer routes not so sure, especially as this COVID impacts will be longer than imagined, given ongoing issues in the USA, and now even in parts of Europe. BWIA/BW has been flying that KIN/Eastern Caribbean route since just after WWII and this is a gov't/business route mainly. BW reports this as being one of their most profitable, so will protect it as fiercely as it did when JM tried to do KIN POS and Redjet entered the market. And we have to see how the public will view a 738 vs and ERJ on long routes.

Btw as BW looks for route opportunities I see POS SDQ definitely being among them.
+

caribny wrote:

BW already does HAV and will be back as soon as Cuba and T&T reopen, and they offer connections from GEO GND and BGI How many from the southern Caribbean travel to T&C? I will assume that with reopening BW will reinstate its NAS POS route, again with BGI and GEO connections. So these routes will have to work based on O&D and with all that is going on aI dont see much room for discretionary travel.

Inter Caribbean has a very high rate of expansion and their abysmal Tripadvisor rating I suspect is because their infrastructure and staffing arent adequate to back this. How is this being financed, and how did they fare during this period when even larger carriers are being stressed? I can see their BGI hub to nearby islands doing well, and in fact they will be the likeliest LIAT replacement. BW may well decide to offer a lighter presence out of BGI as their aircraft are too big to offer the nimble scheduling that Inter Carib can, provided that their service standards are better than that reported out of EIS.

Longer routes not so sure, especially as this COVID impacts will be longer than imagined, given ongoing issues in the USA, and now even in parts of Europe. BWIA/BW has been flying that KIN/Eastern Caribbean route since just after WWII and this is a gov't/business route mainly. BW reports this as being one of their most profitable, so will protect it as fiercely as it did when JM tried to do KIN POS and Redjet entered the market. And we have to see how the public will view a 738 vs and ERJ on long routes.

Very few people are travelling right now an ERJ is smaller yes but it's still a jet. I think people will go with the most cost effective option. That is where JY has an advantage using a 50 seater on this route. It should be easier for them to get 30 or 40 passengers which if priced appropriately should be profitable. BW has an aircraft which seats 3 times more I don't have figures but I would be surprised if BGI-KIN sees over 70 people on a flight.

baje427 wrote:

Very few people are travelling right now an ERJ is smaller yes but it's still a jet. I think people will go with the most cost effective option. That is where JY has an advantage using a 50 seater on this route. It should be easier for them to get 30 or 40 passengers which if priced appropriately should be profitable. BW has an aircraft which seats 3 times more I don't have figures but I would be surprised if BGI-KIN sees over 70 people on a flight.

Of course BW has more staying power than JY and over 1/3 of the market isnt price sensitive as its business travel. We really dont know what JYs financial position is. Rapid growth and then shut down for over 4 months. KIN is one of BWs best routes and they will fight to keep it. This route at the best of times isnt big enough for 2 carriers and BW isnt going to exit it. Where I see BW not engaging in a knock down fight with JY will be on the flights to the Windward islands.

https://www.tripadvisor.co.uk/Airline_R ... rCaribbean

You do know that this rating is worse than LIATs. 40% of the Jamaicans arriving in BGI are there for 3 days or less, so I dont think that they can handle an unreliable airline.

I expect that when (if) POS reopens that BW might go back to the old routing of its milk run to boost loads and so end its KIN BGI flight. At least until traffic rebuilds.

It looks like CAL has left the BGI/SLU route. Can someone say if it's temporary or permanent? Also, they have advertised that flights between BGI and DOM would start soon.

You cannot book BGI SLU so its gone, at least for the next few months. With JY and Antilles on the route, both will daily flights, it was crowded. I do not see BGI DOM being any better. With all of the travel protocols plus economic uncertainty and the lack of the usual summer events people arent travelling. The two markets which generate the most intra regional travel in the southern Caribbean, POS and GEO, are both closed. BGI doesnt generate as much as people think and much of the BGI bound travel from the OECS is US visa related, clearly nonexistent now.

caribny wrote:

You cannot book BGI SLU so its gone, at least for the next few months. With JY and Antilles on the route, both will daily flights, it was crowded. I do not see BGI DOM being any better. With all of the travel protocols plus economic uncertainty and the lack of the usual summer events people arent travelling. The two markets which generate the most intra regional travel in the southern Caribbean, POS and GEO, are both closed. BGI doesnt generate as much as people think and much of the BGI bound travel from the OECS is US visa related, clearly nonexistent now.

I remember saying BGI wasn't the mecca of travel many people think, and I got quite a bit of flack for it. LI's route network really enlarged the percieved importance of BGI. Many of LI's passengers were simply passing through, of which most were unnecessary. In this post Covid environment there's no room for interCaribbean, BW, OCL, and Air Antilles all on ANY route.

To fly from GND to SVD you had to fly via BGI. BGI SLU had even more capacity than before COVID so someone had to leave and with low frequencies it made sense that it would be BW. Air Antilles can support its SLU BGI with FDF and DOM travelers so had an advantage. JY with their small planes and the closest thing to a hub also. BW was the odd man out. Not even sure what OCL is up to. They keep getting into regulatory trouble, which isnt a good sign.

We have to remember the unemployment rate in Barbados is 40% and trending up. I would imagine it's a similar situation elsewhere.People are not going to travel right now or anytime soon in any sizeable numbers. As I stated previously JY has the best suited fleet for these times. While this pandemic may be a 5 year economic event for advanced countries this will take the region in excess of 10 years to recover from.

And the issue is that even those who do have jobs probably have lower earnings, or are concerned about their financial future. I do not know if the Caribbean has 10 years to recover. If it takes that long its likely that a recovery will not be possible, especially as BGI wasnt in the best shape pre COVID. As much as people talk about diversifying the economy they ought to remember that in the 80s the conversation was about manufacturing, and clearly that didnt work, nor will export agriculture beyond regional markets. I really dont see the knowledge based economy being a big thing when one considers tough Asian competition, that is unless there is massive investment in education.

If GEO becomes the power house, as its energy sector grows, then POS might take over some of the intransit services that BGI provided before LIATs demise. This as GEO becomes a more important O&D market. Watch out for PBM as well as they are also on the brink of an energy based growth spirt, and are integrated into CARICOM. BGI isnt the huge market for outbound travel as some imagined it to be as after all its population is only 60% larger than SLUs. BGI should actually be part of the OECS, so can develop as a business hub for that sub region.. If there is a role for the SVD carriers it will be connecting the Windward islands to avoid a BGI intransit. Their Islanders and Twin Otters can service those routes.

So all of this limits JYs growth of its BGI hub, unless they substantially develop connectivity between the southern and northern parts of the Eastern Caribbean. A good % of LIs BGI intransits were taking people from SVD/GND to ANU/SKB/SXM/EIS. Take away that and with less travel there will not be that much.

BWA900 wrote:

British Airways will resume a year-round direct daily service from London Heathrow to Barbados on October 17, following a 15-year hiatus. Heathrow service will be operated by a four-class B777-200 aircraft and is expected to boost traffic to the Caribbean island.

https://www.businesstraveller.com/busin ... s-service/

In competition to Virgin?

LimaFoxTango wrote:

caribny wrote:

You cannot book BGI SLU so its gone, at least for the next few months. With JY and Antilles on the route, both will daily flights, it was crowded. I do not see BGI DOM being any better. With all of the travel protocols plus economic uncertainty and the lack of the usual summer events people arent travelling. The two markets which generate the most intra regional travel in the southern Caribbean, POS and GEO, are both closed. BGI doesnt generate as much as people think and much of the BGI bound travel from the OECS is US visa related, clearly nonexistent now.

I remember saying BGI wasn't the mecca of travel many people think, and I got quite a bit of flack for it. LI's route network really enlarged the percieved importance of BGI. Many of LI's passengers were simply passing through, of which most were unnecessary. In this post Covid environment there's no room for interCaribbean, BW, OCL, and Air Antilles all on ANY route.

To be fair, I think travel demand is just depressed across the board. I highly doubt that if LI were currently flying, their numbers out of BGI would be much higher than BW's are currently, hub or not.

Brickell305 wrote:

LimaFoxTango wrote:

caribny wrote:

You cannot book BGI SLU so its gone, at least for the next few months. With JY and Antilles on the route, both will daily flights, it was crowded. I do not see BGI DOM being any better. With all of the travel protocols plus economic uncertainty and the lack of the usual summer events people arent travelling. The two markets which generate the most intra regional travel in the southern Caribbean, POS and GEO, are both closed. BGI doesnt generate as much as people think and much of the BGI bound travel from the OECS is US visa related, clearly nonexistent now.

I remember saying BGI wasn't the mecca of travel many people think, and I got quite a bit of flack for it. LI's route network really enlarged the percieved importance of BGI. Many of LI's passengers were simply passing through, of which most were unnecessary. In this post Covid environment there's no room for interCaribbean, BW, OCL, and Air Antilles all on ANY route.

To be fair, I think travel demand is just depressed across the board. I highly doubt that if LI were currently flying, their numbers out of BGI would be much higher than BW's are currently, hub or not.

Exactly, most people are unemployed, underemployed and despite all the talk there has been no reduction on travel taxes so regional travel is still expensive.

caribny wrote:

And the issue is that even those who do have jobs probably have lower earnings, or are concerned about their financial future. I do not know if the Caribbean has 10 years to recover. If it takes that long its likely that a recovery will not be possible, especially as BGI wasnt in the best shape pre COVID. As much as people talk about diversifying the economy they ought to remember that in the 80s the conversation was about manufacturing, and clearly that didnt work, nor will export agriculture beyond regional markets. I really dont see the knowledge based economy being a big thing when one considers tough Asian competition, that is unless there is massive investment in education.

If GEO becomes the power house, as its energy sector grows, then POS might take over some of the intransit services that BGI provided before LIATs demise. This as GEO becomes a more important O&D market. Watch out for PBM as well as they are also on the brink of an energy based growth spirt, and are integrated into CARICOM. BGI isnt the huge market for outbound travel as some imagined it to be as after all its population is only 60% larger than SLUs. BGI should actually be part of the OECS, so can develop as a business hub for that sub region.. If there is a role for the SVD carriers it will be connecting the Windward islands to avoid a BGI intransit. Their Islanders and Twin Otters can service those routes.

So all of this limits JYs growth of its BGI hub, unless they substantially develop connectivity between the southern and northern parts of the Eastern Caribbean. A good % of LIs BGI intransits were taking people from SVD/GND to ANU/SKB/SXM/EIS. Take away that and with less travel there will not be that much.

As you rightly said economic options for the region are limited but tourism isn't going to recover for a while. This really is the most challenging time the Caribbean has been through its going to take extremely great leadership for the region to get through this.