Not surprising in the least. Good luck to all the carriers expanding now. They’ll need it. It’s gonna be a while before intra-regional travel returns to normal.
Goes back to what I was saying a couple of weeks ago. Nobody is travelling within the islands; it's bad right now. JY and 3S will be better positioned than BW will be in operating out of BGI. JY because they have equipment that is better suited to the current market, and 3S because, (1) they will operate the faster and hence cheaper ATR42 when compared to BW, (2) they will tag either FDF or PTP onto the legs that originate/end in BGI providing more O&D as well as connecting traffic and (3) they will be cheaper than BW as they have a lower cost base.
Yes. BW is better capitalized, but how long will that last for? They've got to realize at some point that protecting their financial resources is more important than throwing money away in a very limited EC market.
I think we will see how determined JY is to win over the BGI market. Are they willing and able to sustain losses in the short to medium term to become the main travel option for regional travel out of BGI? I don't think BW will have as hard a time as you think as BW is a known entity in BGI and within the Southern Caribbean. By many, it will be seen as a natural replacement to LI. JY is an unknown entity that will now need to make a name for itself. However, if JY is willing and able to stick it out, it might do very well and eventually BW may no longer see the fight as worth it and divert resources elsewhere. 3S should be fine as they will focus on the islands with high demand from the French islands and stay mainly within their wheelhouse.
When talking about the short-term BW is already having a hard time though. Everyone will, but BW is at a competitive disadvantage because of the reasons mentioned above. Less than 10 pax on a consistent basis isn't having it easy. Would they be able to make it work if traffic was at the levels it was at pre-covid? Yes. Mostly anybody would be able to do that. When Trinidad's borders reopen that may help depending on what they do, but does it make sense to be throwing money to connect the Eastern Caribbean for the sake of brand loyalty when you already have the brand recognition needed to do well in the future? JY and 3S need to prove themselves committed to BGI, but does BW?
Talking about the long-term now. After Trinidad's borders reopen, what is BW going to do with BGI? Trinidadians aren't going to want to go to Barbados in order to fly to St.Lucia, when they had direct flights in the past, is BW going to leave the flights separate or combine them? Same applies to the other islands as well. If they leave them separate the advantage of Trinidad's borders reopening to trying to make up the numbers on the Barbados flights is diminished, and 3S' position remains better positioned as FDF and PTP are different markets than POS.
Will be interesting to see what comes out of the Caribsky Alliance now that LIAT is no longer flying. 3S and WM will continue the arrangement, and LIAT wasn't a strong partner in the alliance, but they definitely helped the arrangement somewhat. What's interesting is that interCaribbean has been invited to join in the past, but they weren't interested.
Last edited by fowlr29
on Thu Aug 06, 2020 2:09 pm, edited 1 time in total.