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Brickell305
Posts: 1305
Joined: Sat Jun 24, 2017 2:07 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Tue Oct 13, 2020 12:15 am

caribny wrote:
BW is going to stay in their own corner and continue with their POS focused operations, which will also benefit GEO/OGL which lies to the south. They aren't going to get into the intricacies of travel among the OECS, BGI, and the Virgin Islands/SXM. They have already dropped SLU, and we will see how long DOM lasts. They arent going to fill the LI gap. I am not even sure if they will keep their KIN service, other than to JFK and the Eastern Caribbean, now that the majors are back in full force.

One thing for sure is that when LI had 2-3 flights daily from GND to BGI a good % were continuing to points beyond, not something that any of the current carriers can provide, so this limits the viability of an already thin route.

So it appears as if the OECS will fall apart with no reliable airlift connecting each island. Hell the president of the ECCB, who is from GND, but living in SKB, cannot even fly home, unless he charters a plane! Travel between the OECS Secretariat and other OECS nations is similarly challenged. People who used to cuss LIAT will now miss it. So folks can say what they want but either a new version of LIAT will have to be built, or Caribbean people will learn to swim. Its not only ANU which will feel the pinch.

Well if the govt’s of the OECS finally realize what a world without LI looks like and see that it’s not sustainable, they will finally put forward some $$$ to get its replacement in the air. I’m looking at SKB and SLU. I doubt it though. In fact, the opposite has happened. The airline is now ANU’s. Maybe as that occurred early in the lockdown period, the other OECS governments didn’t realize what they were doing and will now change course. Again, I remain skeptical. If they planned to do so, odds are an announcement would have been made by now.
 
Brickell305
Posts: 1305
Joined: Sat Jun 24, 2017 2:07 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Tue Oct 13, 2020 12:24 am

baje427 wrote:
It will be interesting to see how long the T&T borders will remain closed if it continues into 2021 I cant see BW surviving. On another note AA restarted flights to BGI last week from MIA.

I wonder how much longer they can hold on myself. The GoRTT promised previously that they would not allow BW to fail and would provide whatever assistance was necessary. We'll see if that actually pans out. Even when Trinidad reopens, traffic won’t be at pre-pandemic levels. Business travel, upon which they heavily rely is dead. Carnival, which makes them a lot of money, isn’t happening next year. Trinidad based tourism is likely to be centered on trips to Tobago which isn’t a money maker for the airline. There’s also nowhere else for them to expand as travel demand all across the region is in the doldrums.
 
2travel2know2
Posts: 2999
Joined: Mon Apr 26, 2010 3:01 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Tue Oct 13, 2020 1:59 am

Brickell305 wrote:
baje427 wrote:
There’s also nowhere else for them to expand as travel demand all across the region is in the doldrums.
There's always demand between Florida and CCS. Would BW dare to make an effort to take a share of that (POS connecting) traffic?
I'm not on CM's payroll.
 
gunnerman
Posts: 1194
Joined: Fri May 19, 2017 7:55 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Tue Oct 13, 2020 3:28 pm

By closing its borders the government of T&T bears a significant responsibility for BW's dire circumstances and wants to keep it afloat. Trouble is, the notoriously inefficient government was itself already in dire straits, so where is the money going to come from to fund BW. In years gone by tourists and VFRs spent money in the country but obviously that's dried up. It has to be a possibility that BW will end up with just a little hub in BGI and the airbridge.
 
A388
Posts: 8058
Joined: Mon May 21, 2001 3:48 am

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Tue Oct 13, 2020 6:13 pm

2travel2know2 wrote:
Brickell305 wrote:
baje427 wrote:
There’s also nowhere else for them to expand as travel demand all across the region is in the doldrums.
There's always demand between Florida and CCS. Would BW dare to make an effort to take a share of that (POS connecting) traffic?


I don't know how the demand between Florida and Venezuela is these days but I think it is quite weak now. Using POS as connecting airport is a bit of a detour as you fly to the complete opposite direction first before continuing to Florida. Because the detour isn't big, there might be some opportunity there in the future but I'm not sure.

A388
 
2travel2know2
Posts: 2999
Joined: Mon Apr 26, 2010 3:01 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Tue Oct 13, 2020 6:30 pm

A388 wrote:
2travel2know2 wrote:
There's always demand between Florida and CCS. Would BW dare to make an effort to take a share of that (POS connecting) traffic?


I don't know how the demand between Florida and Venezuela is these days but I think it is quite weak now. Using POS as connecting airport is a bit of a detour as you fly to the complete opposite direction first before continuing to Florida. Because the detour isn't big, there might be some opportunity there in the future but I'm not sure.

A388
Check this from http://www.gcmap.com

MIA CCS 138° (SE) 145° (SE) 1,360 mi

2 segment path:
MIA POS 127° (SE) 133° (SE) 1,622 mi
POS CCS 271° (W) 286° (W) 384 mi
2,007 mi (+47.5%)

2 segment path:
MIA PTY 177° (S) 184° (S) 1,152 mi
PTY CCS 082° (E) 087° (E) 851 mi
2,003 mi (+47.3%)

IMHO, Pretty sure, Double daily non-stop MIA service is something future BW would want to keep, so CCS connecting traffic could well partly cover expenses of a MIA/FLL-POS morning flight + POS-MIA/FLL late afternoon flight. That CCS schedule could even work for YYZ/JFK connections.
I'm not on CM's payroll.
 
A388
Posts: 8058
Joined: Mon May 21, 2001 3:48 am

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Tue Oct 13, 2020 6:53 pm

2travel2know2 wrote:
IMHO, Pretty sure, Double daily non-stop MIA service is something future BW would want to keep, so CCS connecting traffic could well partly cover expenses of a MIA/FLL-POS morning flight + POS-MIA/FLL late afternoon flight. That CCS schedule could even work for YYZ/JFK connections.


I think it has more to do with the passenger perception more than the actual distance but I agree POS might be able to get a small part of this market to/from Florida. From JFK and YYZ it is for sure an option. Caribbean Airlines promoted their flights to Curacao like this (connecting possibility to/from JFK).

A388
 
baje427
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Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Wed Oct 14, 2020 12:16 pm

I am wondering if BW will add some intl flights out of BGI .With flights allowed out of YYZ,JFK and MIA they could probably base a 737 there and get some additional revenue.
 
A388
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Joined: Mon May 21, 2001 3:48 am

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Wed Oct 14, 2020 1:47 pm

baje427 wrote:
I am wondering if BW will add some intl flights out of BGI .With flights allowed out of YYZ,JFK and MIA they could probably base a 737 there and get some additional revenue.


Are there large enough VFR markets in YYZ, JFK, MIA that are willing to use Caribbean Airlines and can fill those direct flights out of BGI? Few tourists will use a Caribbean based airline to fly to the Caribbean.

A388
 
baje427
Posts: 888
Joined: Mon Aug 01, 2011 12:42 am

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Wed Oct 14, 2020 2:11 pm

A388 wrote:
baje427 wrote:
I am wondering if BW will add some intl flights out of BGI .With flights allowed out of YYZ,JFK and MIA they could probably base a 737 there and get some additional revenue.


Are there large enough VFR markets in YYZ, JFK, MIA that are willing to use Caribbean Airlines and can fill those direct flights out of BGI? Few tourists will use a Caribbean based airline to fly to the Caribbean.

A388

I don't know how loads are into BGI at present I suspect that they are not great however, POS borders are closed and offer no revenue opportunities. If they can they could perhaps do 2 flights a week to each destination and see how it goes.
 
windian425
Posts: 259
Joined: Sat Dec 30, 2006 9:22 am

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Wed Oct 14, 2020 3:26 pm

With B6 only operating 2x weekly CAL can certainly operate 2x/3x weekly BGI-JFK flights to satisfy the VFR market. BGI-YYZ could also justify 2x week service. MIA would be more difficult with AA operating daily and soon 2x daily with their Hub.
 
Brickell305
Posts: 1305
Joined: Sat Jun 24, 2017 2:07 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Wed Oct 14, 2020 7:12 pm

windian425 wrote:
With B6 only operating 2x weekly CAL can certainly operate 2x/3x weekly BGI-JFK flights to satisfy the VFR market. BGI-YYZ could also justify 2x week service. MIA would be more difficult with AA operating daily and soon 2x daily with their Hub.

I don't see BW doing that. If B6 is only flying 2x weekly, it is because that is what the market is demanding currently. I don't see the point in BW trying to compete for a next to non-existent market now when they are already in a precarious situation financially. At least with the regional stuff, that's relatively low cost as it's with ATRs for short distances with crew returning to base each time.
 
windian425
Posts: 259
Joined: Sat Dec 30, 2006 9:22 am

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Wed Oct 14, 2020 7:55 pm

I don't see BW doing it either to be fair. They are way to conservative in general and will find it difficult to compete with the likes of B6 and AA. However, a more aggressive BW should and can make these routes work. They can also feed into the regional flights out of BGI and offer something that JY cant. The BGI public would have the choice of CAL for both regional and international travel.
 
LimaFoxTango
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Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Thu Oct 15, 2020 12:58 am

windian425 wrote:
With B6 only operating 2x weekly CAL can certainly operate 2x/3x weekly BGI-JFK flights to satisfy the VFR market. BGI-YYZ could also justify 2x week service. MIA would be more difficult with AA operating daily and soon 2x daily with their Hub.


I also don't see BW doing this. If BW does do it, I can see B6 increasing their service simply to run BW off the route. There's no argument, B6's service is superior to that of BW and Bajans would know this. They're very familiar with the B6 product.
You are said to be a good pilot when your take-off's equal your landings.
 
MAH4546
Posts: 26529
Joined: Wed Jan 24, 2001 1:44 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Thu Oct 15, 2020 2:48 am

A388 wrote:
2travel2know2 wrote:
Brickell305 wrote:
There's always demand between Florida and CCS. Would BW dare to make an effort to take a share of that (POS connecting) traffic?


I don't know how the demand between Florida and Venezuela is these days but I think it is quite weak now. Using POS as connecting airport is a bit of a detour as you fly to the complete opposite direction first before continuing to Florida. Because the detour isn't big, there might be some opportunity there in the future but I'm not sure.

A388


Obviously COVID and the restrictions on travel have hampered demand, but until the government disallowed non-stop U.S,-Venezuela flights, demand was still massive to Caracas. Remember well over half a million Venezuelans have moved to Florida alone.
a.
 
Caymanair
Posts: 526
Joined: Mon Apr 05, 2004 4:53 am

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Thu Oct 15, 2020 5:05 am

A388 wrote:
baje427 wrote:
I am wondering if BW will add some intl flights out of BGI .With flights allowed out of YYZ,JFK and MIA they could probably base a 737 there and get some additional revenue.


Are there large enough VFR markets in YYZ, JFK, MIA that are willing to use Caribbean Airlines and can fill those direct flights out of BGI? Few tourists will use a Caribbean based airline to fly to the Caribbean.

A388


That's not true. Some will stick to airlines where loyalty already exists, but if BW had the stomach for it they could certainly build a market with tourist traffic.

The problem is if the traffic exists at all right now, and how stable it would be in islands that have opened themselves up to the virus again.
 
caribny
Posts: 582
Joined: Sat Mar 16, 2019 1:47 am

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Fri Oct 16, 2020 4:41 pm

GoTT is cutting other expenditures, so I cannot see them justifying further expenditures on BW. The interesting thing was that if GoTT had decided to no longer fund it in times past when it was generating huge losses LI would have been the carrier to fill the gap on regional routes.. Now we may see no BW and in addition to no LI if the crisis continues. POS accounts for a high % of the regional travel within the E/Caribbean.

And all this is happening just as there is increasing conversation about economic diversification, looking to greater integration of CARICOM markets for goods and services. Both the gov'ts and the private sector will have to emerge from this malaise as pretty speeches at the UN begging rich nations to support will not cut it. These countries also have their pandemic problems which look as if it will continue into the winter.
 
caribny
Posts: 582
Joined: Sat Mar 16, 2019 1:47 am

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Fri Oct 16, 2020 5:06 pm

windian425 wrote:
With B6 only operating 2x weekly CAL can certainly operate 2x/3x weekly BGI-JFK flights to satisfy the VFR market. BGI-YYZ could also justify 2x week service. MIA would be more difficult with AA operating daily and soon 2x daily with their Hub.


People from JFK traveling to BGI have to self quarantine when they return back. Only some OECS islands are exempt from the NY requirements.

https://coronavirus.health.ny.gov/covid ... l-advisory

Only the most determined will travel under these circumstances. Dominicans apparently will do so, or risk fines if caught by the NY authorities. This evidenced by B6 flights to SDQ/STI. Not sure that this works for English speaking Caribbean people though. B6s flights into Jamaica are below normal levels.

SLU should do well this winter though as it is increasingly popular and off the NY quarantine list. Some who normally do ANU/BGI might switch to that island. This is why keeping Covid levels low matters.

Not sure that BW can make YYZ BGI work. They barely survive on the YYZ KIN and that's a much bigger VFR market.

And yes B6 customers are like a cult. Do not see them running to BW as B6 will match the fares. People like their IFE and superior wifi connectivity, that being BWs weak spot.
 
Brickell305
Posts: 1305
Joined: Sat Jun 24, 2017 2:07 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Fri Oct 16, 2020 6:11 pm

An article with a bit more detail on LI's possible return:

https://barbadostoday.bb/2020/10/16/liat-staff-uncertain-about-termination-process/

The collapsed regional airline LIAT is expected to start issuing termination letters to hundreds of employees and management officials tomorrow.

Well-placed sources in Antigua and Barbuda, where the company is based, disclosed this today following a meeting between the workers’ unions, the Leeward Islands Pilots Association (LIALPA) and the administrator of the proposed restructured airline, Cleveland Seaforth.

However, the source told  hat there is still some confusion over the termination process in that, according to the Antigua Labour Code, the staff had already been terminated due to the length of time they have been laid off.

One staff member is questioning the implications of a recent statement by Antigua and Barbuda Prime Minister Gaston Browne that he wants to rehire 100 employees after terminating all contracts.

“If he is keeping 100 people, what happens to the other 570 who will be on the streets? That also means 25 pilots will be sent home,” the worker asked.


The source said the staff is also concerned about severance pay which appears to be in immediate doubt.

“Severance figures will be available in draft next Friday to give the employees a chance to question the figures if necessary. These figures will also include owed retroactive pay, vacation pay and owed salaries. The overall severance figure has increased. The figures are derived from the Collective Agreements and/or the Labour Code in the absence of an agreement,” said the informant.

Two options that emerged, according to the source, are the sale of the LIAT assets, except secured debt, such as three ATR 42 aircraft.

Barbados TODAY has been told that if this option is used, “we are looking at five cents on the dollar.”

Another option is two potential investors indicating they may consider paying the severance of the workers.

“No governments have indicated directly that they are willing to pay severance at this time. This can change when the final report has been made by the administrator. The administrator is putting forward another concept which is gaining some traction, but it is too early to discuss currently,” the source stated.


It is understood that the administrator has to present his report to the law courts no later than November 20, 2020 and has promised to come back and discuss his report with all unions.

“The administrator had mentioned in the past, the idea of approaching CARICOM for assistance to pay severance; however, he has not done it as yet,” Barbados TODAY has been told.

According to a source close to the meeting, the administrator said the five cents on the dollar could be reduced, if the Antigua Government took back the money it had put into the airline.

The meeting was also informed that LIAT cannot resume operations on November 1 because there is a lot to be done, including maintenance of one ATR 42 aircraft.

“The administrator has said that there is a belief that LIAT could operate a small schedule for three months fully funded by the Antigua Government. They will be flying two of the 42s owned by the company and do not know where the PM got the idea that it was four planes. It is the hope that after the three months, a new investor will take over the company next year,” disclosed the source close to the talks.

LIAT is in the process of being restructured and the intention is to fly again under a smaller operation.


When contacted, President of LIALPA Patterson Thompson told Barbados TODAY he still had to have follow up talks on the termination issue and therefore had no comment to make at this time.

The administrator could not be reached for a response.


The most interesting points to me:

1. The plan to fly just two/three planes going forward.
2. The fact that staff/refund issues have yet to be settled.
3. That a November 1 return is not expected.
4. The hope for a new investor after the first three months of return. To that I do wish them the best of luck. I find it highly unlikely. If that's what is being banked on, I suspect LI, if it does return, will be grounded again very shortly after.
 
caribny
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Joined: Sat Mar 16, 2019 1:47 am

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Fri Oct 16, 2020 10:10 pm

NYC cannot function without its MTA subway, London cannot without its tube and CARICOM/OECS cannot function without reliable regional transportation. The good news is there is only essential travel now which gives the gov'ts AND the private sector time to decide how the LIAT 1974 gap will be plugged. Avoiding that problem is like thinking that one doesnt need to put antiseptic on a wound and then bandage it just because it mightn't be bleeding.

It may or may not be LI. It will most likely not be BW and, unless regional gov'ts thoroughly vet the financials of Inter Caribbean, it probably would only be them on a supplemental basis.

All the talk is diversify beyond complete dependence on North American and European tourists. Well folks are naive tp think that start up goods/service based industries can just open up and immediately jump into markets in NYC or London. So if a St Lucian has to fly to MIA to get to GEO life will be quite grim.

Btw SKB is already "hoping" that LI will be back in some shape or form. I suspect DOM feels the same. If Inter Caribbean offers SLU its one star TripAdvisor level service so too will the others. BW is not getting into the nitty gritty of regional travel beyond major POS focused routes.
 
maverick4002
Posts: 406
Joined: Sun Jul 12, 2015 2:14 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Sat Oct 17, 2020 12:56 pm

I see CAL is advertising return of JFK - GEO flights beginning on October 19th. I guess Guyana has re-opened its borders. Hopefully this provides some revenue and also maybe an opportunity to start GEO-BGI soon thereafter.
 
maverick4002
Posts: 406
Joined: Sun Jul 12, 2015 2:14 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Sat Oct 17, 2020 4:37 pm

In the Jamaican thread it (can we link to comments in other threads, idk how to do that) it looks like CAL has applied for:

KIN - BGI - JFK - KIN
KIN - JFK - BGI - KIN and
KIN - BGI - MIA - BGI - KIN

December 2 start dates
 
LimaFoxTango
Posts: 1004
Joined: Wed Jun 16, 2004 11:33 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Sat Oct 17, 2020 8:42 pm

maverick4002 wrote:
In the Jamaican thread it (can we link to comments in other threads, idk how to do that) it looks like CAL has applied for:

KIN - BGI - JFK - KIN
KIN - JFK - BGI - KIN and
KIN - BGI - MIA - BGI - KIN

December 2 start dates


Well with POS borders closed and the questionable timeline as to when they'll open, they are obviously looking at revenue elsewhere. I commend BW for at least stepping outside the box. I'm told they are also looking to set up a mini base in GEO in the mean time a la BGI.
You are said to be a good pilot when your take-off's equal your landings.
 
baje427
Posts: 888
Joined: Mon Aug 01, 2011 12:42 am

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Sat Oct 17, 2020 10:04 pm

maverick4002 wrote:
In the Jamaican thread it (can we link to comments in other threads, idk how to do that) it looks like CAL has applied for:

KIN - BGI - JFK - KIN
KIN - JFK - BGI - KIN and
KIN - BGI - MIA - BGI - KIN

December 2 start dates

I guess my thinking wasn't too far off, it does not seem as if the T&T borders will reopen this year so BE has to try for revenue where it can.
 
caribny
Posts: 582
Joined: Sat Mar 16, 2019 1:47 am

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Sun Oct 18, 2020 12:28 am

maverick4002 wrote:
I see CAL is advertising return of JFK - GEO flights beginning on October 19th. I guess Guyana has re-opened its borders. Hopefully this provides some revenue and also maybe an opportunity to start GEO-BGI soon thereafter.



GEO has reopened its borders and BW has to get in quickly on the JFK GEO to avoid AA pushing them out. This has always been their best route, in terms of both yields and loads, so they can ill afford to lose it. Only thing is that they arent allowed to do a GEO JFK GEO and POS is still closed. I assume that they are probably attempting a work around pending reopening of POS, or the planes will continue to POS "empty", or a bunch of scheduled "charters".

I only wonder if they cannot get KIN MIA to work why do they think that BGI MIA will work. Its much smaller, both in the VFR and outbound travel markets.

JFK is always worth a try as IMHO the Caribbean VFR market there is more loyal to Caribbean goods/services than those located elsewhere. Maybe that is because many live in dense Caribbean communities so are more ethnic in identities.
 
maverick4002
Posts: 406
Joined: Sun Jul 12, 2015 2:14 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Sun Oct 18, 2020 2:08 am

caribny wrote:
maverick4002 wrote:
I see CAL is advertising return of JFK - GEO flights beginning on October 19th. I guess Guyana has re-opened its borders. Hopefully this provides some revenue and also maybe an opportunity to start GEO-BGI soon thereafter.



GEO has reopened its borders and BW has to get in quickly on the JFK GEO to avoid AA pushing them out. This has always been their best route, in terms of both yields and loads, so they can ill afford to lose it. Only thing is that they arent allowed to do a GEO JFK GEO and POS is still closed. I assume that they are probably attempting a work around pending reopening of POS, or the planes will continue to POS "empty", or a bunch of scheduled "charters".

I only wonder if they cannot get KIN MIA to work why do they think that BGI MIA will work. Its much smaller, both in the VFR and outbound travel markets.

JFK is always worth a try as IMHO the Caribbean VFR market there is more loyal to Caribbean goods/services than those located elsewhere. Maybe that is because many live in dense Caribbean communities so are more ethnic in identities.


I've always heard that POS-MIA is their best yielding route. And whilst I understand these are trying times, are being a bit hyperbolic here with "get in quickly to avoid AA pushing them out". The Jamicans never supported BW for non regional flights so nothing surprising there. And with POS closed, they might as well try other routes. The US carriers are throwing darts at the board right now, why cant BW?
 
caribbean484
Posts: 932
Joined: Sat Jan 06, 2007 1:57 am

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Sun Oct 18, 2020 2:56 am

baje427 wrote:
maverick4002 wrote:
In the Jamaican thread it (can we link to comments in other threads, idk how to do that) it looks like CAL has applied for:

KIN - BGI - JFK - KIN
KIN - JFK - BGI - KIN and
KIN - BGI - MIA - BGI - KIN

December 2 start dates

I guess my thinking wasn't too far off, it does not seem as if the T&T borders will reopen this year so BE has to try for revenue where it can.


Are you guys sure you didn't have inside information on this? I mean 2 days after there were discussions on this forum about BGI-JFK they applied for this route :lol: . I knew in 2009 when Ian Brunton became CEO of CAL he mentioned that one of the regrets was cutting JFK-BGIvroute because I was one of their best performing routes to JFK. When CAL took over JM they applied and were granted authority to transfer the rights to fly from KIN-JFK-BGI. Last year when CAL started GCM the Jamaican Board Member said they had plans for more flights out of KIN in 2020, but with Covid, those plans had to be delayed. With POS still closed they have to try something.

We see the US airlines announce almost every week new flights all over the place so I think CAL can at least attempt to get some market back and get ready for when travel returns.

maverick4002 wrote:
I've always heard that POS-MIA is their best yielding route. And whilst I understand these are trying times, are being a bit hyperbolic here with "get in quickly to avoid AA pushing them out". The Jamaicans never supported BW for non-regional flights so nothing surprising there. And with POS closed, they might as well try other routes. The US carriers are throwing darts at the board right now, why can't BW?


POS-KIN, POS-BGI and POS-MIA are CAL's best performing and highest yielding routes, with GEO-JFK being the best performing NYC route. CAL is not stupid to just let this route go and allow AA or Eastern to have a complete advantage. On Monday CAL is expected to announce flights from GEO to BGI/JFK/YYZ/MIA.

caribny wrote:
GoTT is cutting other expenditures, so I cannot see them justifying further expenditures on BW. The interesting thing was that if GoTT had decided to no longer fund it in times past when it was generating huge losses LI would have been the carrier to fill the gap on regional routes.. Now we may see no BW and in addition to no LI if the crisis continues. POS accounts for a high % of the regional travel within the E/Caribbean.

And all this is happening just as there is increasing conversation about economic diversification, looking to greater integration of CARICOM markets for goods and services. Both the gov'ts and the private sector will have to emerge from this malaise as pretty speeches at the UN begging rich nations to support will not cut it. These countries also have their pandemic problems which look as if it will continue into the winter.


The GoTT is not going to allow CAL to fold and the PM just Thursday in a meeting with AMCHAM TT mentioned that management is making sure the airline does everything it can to position the airline to do well in this hard time. The airline has its loan facility and is making drastic decisions until boarders are reopened and travel returns. He also mentioned that they will start IAH as soon as the borders are opened.
The way I see it when T&T reopens CAL will run I daily to YYZ/JFK/MIA/KIN/BGI/GEO/GND and increase over the next 18 months when things improve. Should the expansion plans stick out, the other 2 ATRs will be in POS to continue the regional expansion and I expect more 737MAXs to arrive in 4 years beyond the 12 on order.
All ah we is one family
 
caribbean484
Posts: 932
Joined: Sat Jan 06, 2007 1:57 am

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Sun Oct 18, 2020 3:16 am

Brickell305 wrote:
caribny wrote:
Brickell305 wrote:
I’ll believe it when I see it. He gave that statement with absolutely zero details on how LI would be able to restart. No information on when bookings would reopen, how many planes would remain, what destinations/schedule would be served, how staff would be brought back. That statement was complete wind pie in my mind.




We all piled on LI in times past but it really doesnt look as if the current arrangement is working, with several airlines battling each other for market share of a dwindling number of passengers. T&T, the largest source of regional travel, isnt opening in the near term.

BW is now in serious trouble with the pandemic lasting longer than anticipated, and with T&T remaining closed. No one wants to speak on this, but do we really know what Inter Caribbean's financial position is? Unlike BW they have no other back stop if they get into serious trouble. Take a look at TripAdvisor and this is a ONE star airline. NOT reassuring! WORSE than LI in its worst days! WM is also challenged and cannot fill the gap. Air Antilles will always be a bit player. One Caribbean? Nothing need to be said on that aside from the fact that they are always getting into regulatory troubles.

So we might really need a scaled down and highly transformed LIAT, ultimately shifting away from its ATRs which are too large (at least the ATR 76). They offered services from GEO all the way to SJU. People are already asking how such type of travel can be accommodated with 4 airlines tearing each other down for the few passengers traveling to BGI from GND, SVD, SLU and DOM. What about those who want to travel north? BGI to SKB, SVD to EIS, or SLU to ANU. According to statements out of SKB it is "take a charter or swim".

I’m past the point of whether LI returning is necessary or not. Here, I’m saying I have absolutely no faith in anything coming from the government unless there are firm details in place: restart date, schedules, bookings restarted, etc.

Regarding a new fleet, it’s not happening. LI does not have the money to get a new fleet and then re-train its pilots to fly it.

Regarding finances, yes it is possible that Inter is in a bad way financially. However, we know for a fact (no need to wonder) that LI is. And in terms of backing, LI is currently in an equally precarious situation. The GoAB does not have the ability at this time to continue to keep LI afloat and no help is going to be coming from anywhere else now that BGI and SVD are no longer shareholders. If BW, who is getting some revenue from flight ops and has wealthier government support is in such a precarious situation, what to make of LI that hasn’t gotten any flight ops revenue in months and is backed by a much more leveraged and cash strapped government?


I agree. This song and dance of Gaston Brown is getting old as to when LI returns. The people I feel for are of course the employees who have no clue as to what to expect with LI and their livelihoods. Brown seems to be making it up as he goes. One minute he is saying that African investors are going to take a stake in the airline. Then he is saying regional governments are willing to forgo LI's debts. Now he is saying the airline will fly with 2-3 ATRs? That is basically 75% of the fleet being wiped out. Every week is something else with him and LI and the other regional governments seem to care less and less about it.

2travel2know2 wrote:
A388 wrote:
2travel2know2 wrote:
There's always demand between Florida and CCS. Would BW dare to make an effort to take a share of that (POS connecting) traffic?


I don't know how the demand between Florida and Venezuela is these days but I think it is quite weak now. Using POS as connecting airport is a bit of a detour as you fly to the complete opposite direction first before continuing to Florida. Because the detour isn't big, there might be some opportunity there in the future but I'm not sure.

A388
Check this from http://www.gcmap.com

MIA CCS 138° (SE) 145° (SE) 1,360 mi

2 segment path:
MIA POS 127° (SE) 133° (SE) 1,622 mi
POS CCS 271° (W) 286° (W) 384 mi
2,007 mi (+47.5%)

2 segment path:
MIA PTY 177° (S) 184° (S) 1,152 mi
PTY CCS 082° (E) 087° (E) 851 mi
2,003 mi (+47.3%)

IMHO, Pretty sure, Double daily non-stop MIA service is something future BW would want to keep, so CCS connecting traffic could well partly cover expenses of a MIA/FLL-POS morning flight + POS-MIA/FLL late afternoon flight. That CCS schedule could even work for YYZ/JFK connections.


The problem though is that no airline operating from the US can sell CCS flights together, it must be purchased separately to that is an even more expense and time. At one time CAL was operating 10w ATRs into CCS because of the connecting and local demand. They even upgraded the route to a 738 as demand was so strong, but they are still owed a lot of monies from the CCS govt. But MAH4546 is correct, demand is still strong from the US side and in POS there are now about 40,000-50,000 Venezualans living there officially. Hopefully this situation improves but its going to be a long haul.
All ah we is one family
 
Brickell305
Posts: 1305
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Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Sun Oct 18, 2020 11:52 am

Good on BW for being willing to try something while POS remains closed. I was obviously skeptical that they’d attempt to expand out of BGI like this. I’m not sure routes like BGI-MIA/JFK would have been done if not for COVID or that they will stick but it’s better than just idling waiting for Trinidad to reopen to the world. And now with the mini base in BGI, there may be some ability to keep those long term if they can get not just BGI O&D but get some connections into SVD/DOM/GND as well. Best of luck to them. I don’t see the point of serving GEO-MIA nonstop though. I’d think you’d be better off connecting people via BGI for the time being but BW has the data on that market and I guess would know better. KIN-MIA is down to once a week while AA is 3x daily and that’s a much larger market than GEO, which even pre-COVID, wasn’t that large. We’ll see though.
 
caribny
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Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Sun Oct 18, 2020 5:36 pm

Regardless as to what Gaston Browne might be doing the fact remains that there is a huge gap provided with the (current) demise of LIAT. There are issues with airlift involving the OECS, BGI and points north to SXM and the Virgin Islands that arent being addressed. Folks underestimate the fact that there is quite a bit of migrant travel from the low wage islands in the southern Caribbean to the high wage islands up north.

LIAT had a special gate because a high % of its passengers were traveling THRU BGI and not O&D. Once travel recovers this LIAT gap is going to be a huge problem, so its best that it might be addressed now when passenger levels are low, so yes maybe LI can use 2-3 planes on select ANU focused routes, even if only on a temporary basis. The BGI market is now a crowded mess, ripe for a shakeout so that is lost to them, except for people traveling from that island to points north.

Don't look to BW who will only cherry pick the best and will remain a very POS/GEO focused carrier.


Btw BW is going to stay far away from that CCS mess. They are stilled owed money and Venezuela is an even bigger issue than it was when they all bit withdrew from that market. Not even sure if they will appease Maduro by running their token 1w flight. Even if Biden wins relations between the USA and Venezuela will still remain hostile and neither BW nor the GoTT want to get in the middle of that.
 
caribny
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Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Sun Oct 18, 2020 6:14 pm

I will expect that all the lofty plans of growing KIN will be over now. I dont see KIN GCM returning, and I suspect that BW will just drop its SoFL routes as running 1w against AAs 3x dly just makes no sense, as this is a heavy business route. They have definitely exited the FLL KIN route so there is no VFR for them there. MBJ is also gone, and BW is not missed. I can see YYZ KIN also gone once a decision is made to divert assets to markets where they will be most needed. JFK KIN can remain and can be attached to redeye flights between POS and JFK meaning that the planes dont have to be based there.

The focus will shift to GEO and now apparently BGI. BWIA was once the lead carrier into BGI so maybe BW can rekindle support from residents of that island and also its VFR markets. JFK could be good, picking up additional business from people traveling thru to DOM and SVD. They arent looking to be the lead carrier and B6 can do with some competition. BW will differentiate itself from JY with a much richer menu of routes added to its FF programs. But BW is still NOT going to be the LI replacement.

BW will be VERY aggressive with its GEO, seeking to use that market to attempt to partially offset revenue losses with POS still closed. Hence GEO to just about everywhere they have the route rights to get to. GEO will actually be the growth point in the Eastern Caribbean as it transitions to being an oil based economy, given its new massive reserves. And BW definitely wants it cut of that, and long deserved as BWIA served this market even in times when few others wanted to do so.

Now that BW is back in an expansionary mode out of its E/Caribbean markets with IAH starting ASAP, I wonder if they will look at BWI/IAD. No competition, and good leisure potential for BGI and VFR/business for GEO (and POS once that reopens).
 
baje427
Posts: 888
Joined: Mon Aug 01, 2011 12:42 am

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Mon Oct 19, 2020 1:14 am

caribny wrote:
Regardless as to what Gaston Browne might be doing the fact remains that there is a huge gap provided with the (current) demise of LIAT. There are issues with airlift involving the OECS, BGI and points north to SXM and the Virgin Islands that arent being addressed. Folks underestimate the fact that there is quite a bit of migrant travel from the low wage islands in the southern Caribbean to the high wage islands up north.

LIAT had a special gate because a high % of its passengers were traveling THRU BGI and not O&D. Once travel recovers this LIAT gap is going to be a huge problem, so its best that it might be addressed now when passenger levels are low, so yes maybe LI can use 2-3 planes on select ANU focused routes, even if only on a temporary basis. The BGI market is now a crowded mess, ripe for a shakeout so that is lost to them, except for people traveling from that island to points north.

Don't look to BW who will only cherry pick the best and will remain a very POS/GEO focused carrier.


Btw BW is going to stay far away from that CCS mess. They are stilled owed money and Venezuela is an even bigger issue than it was when they all bit withdrew from that market. Not even sure if they will appease Maduro by running their token 1w flight. Even if Biden wins relations between the USA and Venezuela will still remain hostile and neither BW nor the GoTT want to get in the middle of that.

We all get that there is a hole where LI is concerned however, none of the governments have the resources to tackle the issue at the moment. Let's be realistic here the Caribbean governments were broke pre Covid and are in dire straits now. When you consider that there will be no major festivals in 2021 and probably 2022 there is little activity to create demand. In addition, economic activity has declined significantly in every island so demand for workers will also be depressed. JY if given the necessary permission can replicate what LI did. However, hoping for governments to fund LI when several are struggling to pay unemployment is a big ask.
 
caribny
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Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Mon Oct 19, 2020 5:42 am

baje427 wrote:
In addition, economic activity has declined significantly in every island so demand for workers will also be depressed. JY if given the necessary permission can replicate what LI did. However, hoping for governments to fund LI when several are struggling to pay unemployment is a big ask.





For the Caribbean to achieve sustainable growth it will have to do something different. New products/services and new markets to reduce the extreme dependence on a few products and a few markets..

I cannot imagine NYC with no MTA. Eastern Caribbean people will need to see that making pretty speeches at the UN begging rich nations to help them, or worse yet demanding reparations for slavery isnt going to pull them out of their plight. Already SLU is now claiming that they have run out of cash, so what then? Trump and Boris have their own problems so dont care what Chastanet, Mottley, or Rowley have to endure. A Guyanese might find a buyer for his product/service, but how can he find buyers if he cannot get to ANU, or DOM where potential buyers might exist? What of a Jamaican trying to get to SLU to do the same thing?

So let us wail "we broke" and see how that helps the Caribbean recover if the pandemic continues and tourism arrivals remain suboptimal for a second winter in a row. Caribbean people need to see value in themselves and quit seeking salvation from North Americans and Europeans. That has to be the lesson that Covid teaches them.

So this isnt about LIAT. This is about ensuring that there is infrastructure to facilitate the movements of goods, services and people across the Caribbean to diversify away from almost total dependence on North American and European visitors.
 
Brickell305
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Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Tue Oct 20, 2020 3:04 pm

B6 GEO-JFK MAY 1.0>0[0] JUN 0.5>0[0]
B6 JFK-KIN NOV 1.0>0.7[3]
B6 JFK-MBJ NOV 1.1>0.8[2]
B6 JFK-NAS NOV 0.2>0[1.3]
B6 JFK-PLS NOV 0.5>0.2[1.4]

Some surprising Caribbean cuts by B6 for November noted in the OAG thread. JFK-KIN now less than daily (BW serves it daily), JFK-GEO getting pushed back even further into next year. It makes one wonder whether it will start at all.
 
baje427
Posts: 888
Joined: Mon Aug 01, 2011 12:42 am

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Tue Oct 20, 2020 3:26 pm

Brickell305 wrote:
B6 GEO-JFK MAY 1.0>0[0] JUN 0.5>0[0]
B6 JFK-KIN NOV 1.0>0.7[3]
B6 JFK-MBJ NOV 1.1>0.8[2]
B6 JFK-NAS NOV 0.2>0[1.3]
B6 JFK-PLS NOV 0.5>0.2[1.4]

Some surprising Caribbean cuts by B6 for November noted in the OAG thread. JFK-KIN now less than daily (BW serves it daily), JFK-GEO getting pushed back even further into next year. It makes one wonder whether it will start at all.

Doesn't Jamaica have Covid curfews in place those certainly wont help with demand.
 
Brickell305
Posts: 1305
Joined: Sat Jun 24, 2017 2:07 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Tue Oct 20, 2020 6:44 pm

baje427 wrote:
Brickell305 wrote:
B6 GEO-JFK MAY 1.0>0[0] JUN 0.5>0[0]
B6 JFK-KIN NOV 1.0>0.7[3]
B6 JFK-MBJ NOV 1.1>0.8[2]
B6 JFK-NAS NOV 0.2>0[1.3]
B6 JFK-PLS NOV 0.5>0.2[1.4]

Some surprising Caribbean cuts by B6 for November noted in the OAG thread. JFK-KIN now less than daily (BW serves it daily), JFK-GEO getting pushed back even further into next year. It makes one wonder whether it will start at all.

Doesn't Jamaica have Covid curfews in place those certainly wont help with demand.

I’m not entirely sure. However, that hasn’t stopped AA and DL, for example from returning to essentially a full schedule to KIN and MBJ from their hubs.
 
tphuang
Posts: 6199
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Tue Oct 20, 2020 7:06 pm

Brickell305 wrote:
baje427 wrote:
Brickell305 wrote:
B6 GEO-JFK MAY 1.0>0[0] JUN 0.5>0[0]
B6 JFK-KIN NOV 1.0>0.7[3]
B6 JFK-MBJ NOV 1.1>0.8[2]
B6 JFK-NAS NOV 0.2>0[1.3]
B6 JFK-PLS NOV 0.5>0.2[1.4]

Some surprising Caribbean cuts by B6 for November noted in the OAG thread. JFK-KIN now less than daily (BW serves it daily), JFK-GEO getting pushed back even further into next year. It makes one wonder whether it will start at all.

Doesn't Jamaica have Covid curfews in place those certainly wont help with demand.

I’m not entirely sure. However, that hasn’t stopped AA and DL, for example from returning to essentially a full schedule to KIN and MBJ from their hubs.


Keep in mind that NYC demand is down a lot more than other parts of USA. We have a quarantine in effect.
 
Brickell305
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Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Tue Oct 20, 2020 11:52 pm

tphuang wrote:
Brickell305 wrote:
baje427 wrote:
Doesn't Jamaica have Covid curfews in place those certainly wont help with demand.

I’m not entirely sure. However, that hasn’t stopped AA and DL, for example from returning to essentially a full schedule to KIN and MBJ from their hubs.


Keep in mind that NYC demand is down a lot more than other parts of USA. We have a quarantine in effect.

That is true. That bodes very poorly for the Caribbean tourism product this winter.
 
caribny
Posts: 582
Joined: Sat Mar 16, 2019 1:47 am

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Wed Oct 21, 2020 3:14 am

Brickell305 wrote:
tphuang wrote:
Brickell305 wrote:
I’m not entirely sure. However, that hasn’t stopped AA and DL, for example from returning to essentially a full schedule to KIN and MBJ from their hubs.


Keep in mind that NYC demand is down a lot more than other parts of USA. We have a quarantine in effect.

That is true. That bodes very poorly for the Caribbean tourism product this winter.



Some of the smaller islands like SLU are exempt from the NY quarantine. Visitors can stay in approved hotels and go on approved tours. These islands might get business from other islands which arent exempt from NY quarantine. Not only no NY quarantine but the fact that they are very low Covid risk. SKB and GND (also NY quarantine exempt) have more rigid quarantine protocols so will attract fewer people.

The issue of course is that NY was hit more heavily last Spring so NYers are more Covid wary. What is also clear is that this wariness extends to the VFR segment from the English Caribbean, but not to the Spanish Caribbean. JFK KIN is way down, as we see from B6 reductions. Usually double daily and now less than daily.
 
baje427
Posts: 888
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Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Wed Oct 21, 2020 12:13 pm

Trans Guyana has announced they will be serving BGI five times weekly from OGL starting November 1st with B1900D aircraft.
 
gunnerman
Posts: 1194
Joined: Fri May 19, 2017 7:55 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Wed Oct 21, 2020 3:29 pm

Although the TGA flights are scheduled to arrive in BGI at 1145 they don't return to OGL until 1730 or 1800. It would seem as if TGA wants to get connecting traffic but I'm not aware of any interline agreements with BA, VS, AA, B6, WS or AC.
 
windian425
Posts: 259
Joined: Sat Dec 30, 2006 9:22 am

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Wed Oct 21, 2020 3:51 pm

Those times for TGA suggest that flights will allow for self connections in the absence of any interline agreements.
 
LimaFoxTango
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Joined: Wed Jun 16, 2004 11:33 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Wed Oct 21, 2020 3:57 pm

baje427 wrote:
Trans Guyana has announced they will be serving BGI five times weekly from OGL starting November 1st with B1900D aircraft.


I commend TransGuyana for this, its certainly a good move on their part. They certainly have been going quite a bit of charters within the Eastern Caribbean since C19 hit and absence of LI. However though, I suspect they will not be able to offer the type of service Guyanese would expect on this route. Their baggage allowance is reportedly 20lbs and I doubt much else hand hand luggage wise. They better have a Caravan (or another 1900) as a baggage chase plane, because Guyanese are heavy travellers especially with the Christmas season coming up.
You are said to be a good pilot when your take-off's equal your landings.
 
caribny
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Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Wed Oct 21, 2020 4:17 pm

LimaFoxTango wrote:
baje427 wrote:
Trans Guyana has announced they will be serving BGI five times weekly from OGL starting November 1st with B1900D aircraft.


I commend TransGuyana for this, its certainly a good move on their part. They certainly have been going quite a bit of charters within the Eastern Caribbean since C19 hit and absence of LI. However though, I suspect they will not be able to offer the type of service Guyanese would expect on this route. Their baggage allowance is reportedly 20lbs and I doubt much else hand hand luggage wise. They better have a Caravan (or another 1900) as a baggage chase plane, because Guyanese are heavy travellers especially with the Christmas season coming up.


TGA is aimed at the business market. With BW coming back online as soon as they can figure out route rights I don't see them getting VFR business.
 
LimaFoxTango
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Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Wed Oct 21, 2020 6:01 pm

caribny wrote:
LimaFoxTango wrote:
baje427 wrote:
Trans Guyana has announced they will be serving BGI five times weekly from OGL starting November 1st with B1900D aircraft.


I commend TransGuyana for this, its certainly a good move on their part. They certainly have been going quite a bit of charters within the Eastern Caribbean since C19 hit and absence of LI. However though, I suspect they will not be able to offer the type of service Guyanese would expect on this route. Their baggage allowance is reportedly 20lbs and I doubt much else hand hand luggage wise. They better have a Caravan (or another 1900) as a baggage chase plane, because Guyanese are heavy travellers especially with the Christmas season coming up.


TGA is aimed at the business market. With BW coming back online as soon as they can figure out route rights I don't see them getting VFR business.


Those times listed above are certainly geared toward connecting traffic into/out of BGI which suggest they are after the VFR market to me.
You are said to be a good pilot when your take-off's equal your landings.
 
caribny
Posts: 582
Joined: Sat Mar 16, 2019 1:47 am

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Thu Oct 22, 2020 6:54 am

LimaFoxTango wrote:
caribny wrote:
LimaFoxTango wrote:

I commend TransGuyana for this, its certainly a good move on their part. They certainly have been going quite a bit of charters within the Eastern Caribbean since C19 hit and absence of LI. However though, I suspect they will not be able to offer the type of service Guyanese would expect on this route. Their baggage allowance is reportedly 20lbs and I doubt much else hand hand luggage wise. They better have a Caravan (or another 1900) as a baggage chase plane, because Guyanese are heavy travellers especially with the Christmas season coming up.


TGA is aimed at the business market. With BW coming back online as soon as they can figure out route rights I don't see them getting VFR business.


Those times listed above are certainly geared toward connecting traffic into/out of BGI which suggest they are after the VFR market to me.


Their dream might be VFR, but not happening.

1. The 20lb bag limit already mentioned.
2 The VFR will flee from a small plane over so much water. As is many barely tolerate LI.
3. The VFR know BW. They dont know TGA.
4. With BW and AA expected back in a week or two with a reasonably robust schedule I dont see why connect via BGI except for LON, or maybe YYZ.

But with GEOs GDP projected to overtake that of BGI, combined with a thriving business sector as GEO (along with the DR) has been minimally impacted by C19, despite the lockdown TGA might attract the business market, depending on what BW does. TGA is owned by Guyana's oligarchy so they might use it.
 
baje427
Posts: 888
Joined: Mon Aug 01, 2011 12:42 am

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Thu Oct 22, 2020 1:07 pm

caribny wrote:
LimaFoxTango wrote:
caribny wrote:

TGA is aimed at the business market. With BW coming back online as soon as they can figure out route rights I don't see them getting VFR business.


Those times listed above are certainly geared toward connecting traffic into/out of BGI which suggest they are after the VFR market to me.


Their dream might be VFR, but not happening.

1. The 20lb bag limit already mentioned.
2 The VFR will flee from a small plane over so much water. As is many barely tolerate LI.
3. The VFR know BW. They dont know TGA.
4. With BW and AA expected back in a week or two with a reasonably robust schedule I dont see why connect via BGI except for LON, or maybe YYZ.

But with GEOs GDP projected to overtake that of BGI, combined with a thriving business sector as GEO (along with the DR) has been minimally impacted by C19, despite the lockdown TGA might attract the business market, depending on what BW does. TGA is owned by Guyana's oligarchy so they might use it.

People who are travelling now are doing so for the most part because they have to. A 19 seater is probably best suited for this route in the current environment.
 
caribny
Posts: 582
Joined: Sat Mar 16, 2019 1:47 am

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Thu Oct 22, 2020 3:08 pm

baje427 wrote:
People who are travelling now are doing so for the most part because they have to. A 19 seater is probably best suited for this route in the current environment.



You might find the Guyanese market a bit different. 40% of Bajans are unemployed, including much of the middle class. Not true for Guyanese. Yes C19 protocols are a pain depending on how strict a destination is, so this will have some negative impacts, but some will work around it.

I will suggest to you that when BW resumes its Guyana BGI service, especially if its out of OGL, this will be the more successful of its BGI based routes. GEO is the 3rd largest source of regional visitors into BGI, behind POS, and almost on par with SVD. Until POS reopens they will now be the largest source. As I mentioned GEO will overtake BGI in GDP and so its middle class will have more disposable income than they have had before, and some will be spent on travel. I suspect that those who normally go to North America will be more reluctant and BGI will be the alternate.

Whereas there is gloom and doom throughout most of the Caribbean because of C19 and its impacts on tourism, Guyana is in a state of euphoria as people anticipate the impact of oil revenues and its spill over into the rest of the economy.

Now the question is who will fly TGA if BW is prowling around? BW is hungry for GEO, given that POS isnt going to reopen for the rest of this year, and mightnt even open up until after Carnival would have been held.
 
Brickell305
Posts: 1305
Joined: Sat Jun 24, 2017 2:07 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Thu Oct 22, 2020 5:39 pm

caribny wrote:
baje427 wrote:
People who are travelling now are doing so for the most part because they have to. A 19 seater is probably best suited for this route in the current environment.



You might find the Guyanese market a bit different. 40% of Bajans are unemployed, including much of the middle class. Not true for Guyanese. Yes C19 protocols are a pain depending on how strict a destination is, so this will have some negative impacts, but some will work around it.

I will suggest to you that when BW resumes its Guyana BGI service, especially if its out of OGL, this will be the more successful of its BGI based routes. GEO is the 3rd largest source of regional visitors into BGI, behind POS, and almost on par with SVD. Until POS reopens they will now be the largest source. As I mentioned GEO will overtake BGI in GDP and so its middle class will have more disposable income than they have had before, and some will be spent on travel. I suspect that those who normally go to North America will be more reluctant and BGI will be the alternate.

Whereas there is gloom and doom throughout most of the Caribbean because of C19 and its impacts on tourism, Guyana is in a state of euphoria as people anticipate the impact of oil revenues and its spill over into the rest of the economy.

Now the question is who will fly TGA if BW is prowling around? BW is hungry for GEO, given that POS isnt going to reopen for the rest of this year, and mightnt even open up until after Carnival would have been held.

Why would BGI be the alternative to N. America? People headed to N. America are generally going to visit friends/relatives, to shop, do business and the few who may be green card holders who have to "check in". Other than the subset of the VFR folks who have family in both Barbados and N. America who may opt to visit their Barbados based family this year, why would any of the others choose BGI as an alternative? Yes, I do get that there are some people who just want to travel somewhere, anywhere. How big is that pool of people though? It's more likely that those who regularly travel to N. America will just defer their travel until things normalize. I do agree that the BGI-GEO/OGL market will likely rebound before other BGI-Caribbean markets as it is not dependent on embassy traffic, has a stronger leisure appeal (e.g. Lucians can visit their own beaches whereas Guyanese cannot), is less dependent on event related traffic and to the extent that VFR traffic will decline, that affects most of the other BGI-Caribbean markets as well.
 
caribny
Posts: 582
Joined: Sat Mar 16, 2019 1:47 am

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Fri Oct 23, 2020 3:04 am

Brickell305 wrote:
caribny wrote:
baje427 wrote:
People who are travelling now are doing so for the most part because they have to. A 19 seater is probably best suited for this route in the current environment.



You might find the Guyanese market a bit different. 40% of Bajans are unemployed, including much of the middle class. Not true for Guyanese. Yes C19 protocols are a pain depending on how strict a destination is, so this will have some negative impacts, but some will work around it.

I will suggest to you that when BW resumes its Guyana BGI service, especially if its out of OGL, this will be the more successful of its BGI based routes. GEO is the 3rd largest source of regional visitors into BGI, behind POS, and almost on par with SVD. Until POS reopens they will now be the largest source. As I mentioned GEO will overtake BGI in GDP and so its middle class will have more disposable income than they have had before, and some will be spent on travel. I suspect that those who normally go to North America will be more reluctant and BGI will be the alternate.

Whereas there is gloom and doom throughout most of the Caribbean because of C19 and its impacts on tourism, Guyana is in a state of euphoria as people anticipate the impact of oil revenues and its spill over into the rest of the economy.

Now the question is who will fly TGA if BW is prowling around? BW is hungry for GEO, given that POS isnt going to reopen for the rest of this year, and mightnt even open up until after Carnival would have been held.

Why would BGI be the alternative to N. America? People headed to N. America are generally going to visit friends/relatives, to shop, do business and the few who may be green card holders who have to "check in". Other than the subset of the VFR folks who have family in both Barbados and N. America who may opt to visit their Barbados based family this year, why would any of the others choose BGI as an alternative? Yes, I do get that there are some people who just want to travel somewhere, anywhere. How big is that pool of people though? It's more likely that those who regularly travel to N. America will just defer their travel until things normalize. I do agree that the BGI-GEO/OGL market will likely rebound before other BGI-Caribbean markets as it is not dependent on embassy traffic, has a stronger leisure appeal (e.g. Lucians can visit their own beaches whereas Guyanese cannot), is less dependent on event related traffic and to the extent that VFR traffic will decline, that affects most of the other BGI-Caribbean markets as well.


LIAT ran 2 daily ATR 76s on its BGI OGL and this was one of their better routes. Guyanese ranked on par with Vincies in traveling to BGI and unlike Vincies none of this was visa related. Guyanese also stayed longer in Barbados, an average more than 2 weeks and many stayed with friends and relatives. I suspect that BGI OGL travel will hold up better than what we are seeing on the other Caribbean routes so I think that BW will have no problems filling 5w and in so doing given TGA a hard time.

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