When virtually the whole of the Eastern Caribbean decided to lock down they won't have know about BA's plans concerning their destinations and Gatwick airport which even BA employees didn't know about until they received an email late last Monday. If there had been a chance of maintaining airlift it disappeared in the face of widespread lockdowns. Looking forward, we just have to wait and see how long these lockdowns last. The only proper way to halt a lockdown is by gathering data from widespread testing in order to decide when and how to back off the lockdown - but Caribbean countries cannot do this sort of testing. So, lockdowns will be removed and reinstated using some combination of economic failure, political issues and gut feel, so who knows when (or indeed if) any particular destination will get airlift again from Europe and north America.
If NYC residents dont even want to travel to midtown why will they travel to BGI? One cannot fly planes with only 10% seats filled, or hotel rooms with only 5% occupancy. The notion that these islands created a self inflicted wound by closing borders is strange. Tourist arrivals had already plummeted by the time the borders were closed. Caribbean people, seeing the state of Europe and the USA, and knowing that Covid 19 had already entered their borders, were demanding that their borders be closed.
ANU had reported that most of the planes were arriving empty and were there to repatriate their citizens back home. Hotels in SLU had already begun to close before they closed their borders. Realizing that the health risks weren't worth it because their economies were already crumbling EVERY Caribbean island and the Guyanas went on lock down. Even the French Antilles cut themselves off from France!
Recovery will depend on what happens in the source markets, and what choices people living in these nations pick. Maybe Americans might decide to travel to FL when the crisis passes, avoiding international travel. Or maybe if FL falls into a state of pandemic, and Jamaica doesnt, then New Yorkers seeking release by traveling to the latter, as the images of FL might be less favorable.
Yes Caribbean economies might crumble as we enter a global recession or even a depression, but there is nothing that the Caribbean could have done to avoid that. Look at other parts of a.net and you will see Americans debating about whether it is safer to drive than to fly. So they aren't about to jump on a plane for a 3-4 hour flight until they begin to feel safe again.
I live in NYC, one of the largest source markets for most Caribbean islands. Better believe that the last thing that people are thinking about is a Caribbean vacation. For the last 2 weeks they have been hiding in their homes, or in places like the Hamptons, a car drive away, I actually know people who canceled FL vacations that they had planned for the Easter school holiday period. They did so 2 weeks ago.
This might well be the time for CARICOM nations to leverage the market that 7 million people provide by diversifying their economies to reduce their total vulnerability to economic shocks emanating from the USA/Europe.