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wnflyguy
Posts: 1997
Joined: Thu Feb 10, 2011 7:58 pm

Re: Alaska Airlines Network Thread 2020

Mon Jun 29, 2020 1:35 am

gunsontheroof wrote:
SANFan wrote:
A question came up on the OAG thread this morning and maybe some here can clarify.

AS is showing that starting Aug 1, they will operate 1 daily flight from PAE to LAS and 1 to PHX. All other Paine Field routes are non-existent.

Huh?

Is the airport open or closed as of 8/1? If closed, how is AS handling 2 daily flights (and why is one to PHX, in August, in the midst of a huge COVID presence?) If open, what about all the other destinations? I realize this all could (and very well might) change but it seems that AAG should have some idea about and a handle on what's going on in August, even for a preliminary schedule release.

Thanks in advance for any help in figuring this out.

bb


I think PAE-PHX is the only route currently in play, but I'd be surprised if AS and UA didn't come back when things return to normal. PAE hit 1,000,000 pax in their first year, not a bad start.

https://www.heraldnet.com/business/alas ... e-per-day/


Well PAE also stated they have a business to run. The covid impact will force them to take back all unused slots from United and AlaskaAir. And seek out other airlines to service the airport.
They need the revenue to pay the bills and can't gamble on United or AlaskaAir maybe coming back some day.

Spirit, Frontier ,Southwest and JetBlue are all in prime position to jump in and gain marketshare.

AlaskaAir I think is going to be forced into defending it's turf in this pandemic should a strong player takes PAE up on getting slots.

Flyguy
My Wings are clipped just another Retired Airline person. The Ultimate Armchair out of the loop airline industry geek. Aloha Mr Hand!
 
CaptainObvious1
Posts: 50
Joined: Sat Apr 11, 2020 11:22 pm

Re: Alaska Airlines Network Thread 2020

Mon Jun 29, 2020 1:45 am

wnflyguy wrote:
gunsontheroof wrote:
SANFan wrote:
A question came up on the OAG thread this morning and maybe some here can clarify.

AS is showing that starting Aug 1, they will operate 1 daily flight from PAE to LAS and 1 to PHX. All other Paine Field routes are non-existent.

Huh?

Is the airport open or closed as of 8/1? If closed, how is AS handling 2 daily flights (and why is one to PHX, in August, in the midst of a huge COVID presence?) If open, what about all the other destinations? I realize this all could (and very well might) change but it seems that AAG should have some idea about and a handle on what's going on in August, even for a preliminary schedule release.

Thanks in advance for any help in figuring this out.

bb


I think PAE-PHX is the only route currently in play, but I'd be surprised if AS and UA didn't come back when things return to normal. PAE hit 1,000,000 pax in their first year, not a bad start.

https://www.heraldnet.com/business/alas ... e-per-day/


Well PAE also stated they have a business to run. The covid impact will force them to take back all unused slots from United and AlaskaAir. And seek out other airlines to service the airport.
They need the revenue to pay the bills and can't gamble on United or AlaskaAir maybe coming back some day.

Spirit, Frontier ,Southwest and JetBlue are all in prime position to jump in and gain marketshare.

AlaskaAir I think is going to be forced into defending it's turf in this pandemic should a strong player takes PAE up on getting slots.

Flyguy


What routes do you see the above mentioned airlines wanting to jump in and serve based on the market?
 
Nicknuzzii
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Re: Alaska Airlines Network Thread 2020

Mon Jun 29, 2020 1:52 am

A little embarrassing for AS to retreat again in August from EWR considering the B6 expansion. I would have thought AS would have at least matched the frequencies. The routes are legacy VX routes and were amongst the most profitable, what happened?
 
wnflyguy
Posts: 1997
Joined: Thu Feb 10, 2011 7:58 pm

Re: Alaska Airlines Network Thread 2020

Mon Jun 29, 2020 1:52 am

CaptainObvious1 wrote:
wnflyguy wrote:
gunsontheroof wrote:

I think PAE-PHX is the only route currently in play, but I'd be surprised if AS and UA didn't come back when things return to normal. PAE hit 1,000,000 pax in their first year, not a bad start.

https://www.heraldnet.com/business/alas ... e-per-day/


Well PAE also stated they have a business to run. The covid impact will force them to take back all unused slots from United and AlaskaAir. And seek out other airlines to service the airport.
They need the revenue to pay the bills and can't gamble on United or AlaskaAir maybe coming back some day.

Spirit, Frontier ,Southwest and JetBlue are all in prime position to jump in and gain marketshare.

AlaskaAir I think is going to be forced into defending it's turf in this pandemic should a strong player takes PAE up on getting slots.

Flyguy


What routes do you see the above mentioned airlines wanting to jump in and serve based on the market?


Well Frontier is the King for throwing darts.
They love to jump in and try a bunch of different things.
Spirit would probably add a lot of west coast dots to fill the AS and UA void like PHX,LAS,LAX,OAK,DEN and SAN.

And

If Southwest jumped back in the game I see
DEN,LAS,OAK and PHX.

Flyguy
My Wings are clipped just another Retired Airline person. The Ultimate Armchair out of the loop airline industry geek. Aloha Mr Hand!
 
n7371f
Posts: 1836
Joined: Fri Jul 04, 2008 3:54 pm

Re: Alaska Airlines Network Thread 2020

Mon Jun 29, 2020 4:09 am

Huge would mean 2 737's a day.

EA CO AS wrote:
PAEPHX has been huge for AS.
 
d8s
Posts: 134
Joined: Thu Feb 23, 2012 6:45 pm

Re: Alaska Airlines Network Thread 2020

Mon Jun 29, 2020 4:56 am

sunking737 wrote:
Did anyone catch that AS is going to cut even more Airbus jets next year?? I saw it posted in Aviator newsletter.I get emailed daily. " Alaska Airlines (US) plans to retire more A320s, including seven of its 49 remaining A320s in 2021. The carrier will retire one B737-800 and hopes to take delivery of 15 B737 MAX 8s in 2021."


I read they were doing the same with the A319, parking them all. Here is the article:

https://www.ch-aviation.com/portal/news ... -its-a319s
 
wedgetail737
Posts: 5276
Joined: Mon Aug 04, 2003 8:44 am

Re: Alaska Airlines Network Thread 2020

Mon Jun 29, 2020 5:53 am

wnflyguy wrote:
CaptainObvious1 wrote:
wnflyguy wrote:

Well PAE also stated they have a business to run. The covid impact will force them to take back all unused slots from United and AlaskaAir. And seek out other airlines to service the airport.
They need the revenue to pay the bills and can't gamble on United or AlaskaAir maybe coming back some day.

Spirit, Frontier ,Southwest and JetBlue are all in prime position to jump in and gain marketshare.

AlaskaAir I think is going to be forced into defending it's turf in this pandemic should a strong player takes PAE up on getting slots.

Flyguy


What routes do you see the above mentioned airlines wanting to jump in and serve based on the market?


Well Frontier is the King for throwing darts.
They love to jump in and try a bunch of different things.
Spirit would probably add a lot of west coast dots to fill the AS and UA void like PHX,LAS,LAX,OAK,DEN and SAN.

And

If Southwest jumped back in the game I see
DEN,LAS,OAK and PHX.

Flyguy


It will also depend on if the construction will be completed on time.
 
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SANFan
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Re: Alaska Airlines Network Thread 2020

Mon Jun 29, 2020 8:21 am

Back to the PAE situation. Hold on a second here. First, there is NO service on AS from PAE to anywhere (including PHX) right now; PHX & LAS begin Aug 1 yet no other routes return.

The article linked above was written in mid-May, at the height of the COVID effects on AS and other cx. There was no mention of the airport construction coming up which would close the terminal and temporarily drop all service to Paine Field. The article made it sound like AS was perhaps just going to give up on PAE service.

I don't know what network planning in SEA is planning for PAE but I really can't foresee them cancelling all but 2 routes from PAE.

Now all of a sudden people here are trying to figure out which airlines are going to swoop in and replace AS (and UA?) ! I think we need to take a step back, take a deep breath and chill for a few weeks. I really doubt that AS is going anywhere and will bring their service at PAE back as soon as (a) the airport apron work is finished, and (b) the traffic at the airport reaches levels that support that service. (I assume UA will do the same.) The COVID recovery is really just starting and PAE is, after all, a pretty small airport near a very big airport!

The question I asked up-thread was why only a single flight to PHX and to LAS on August 1 by AS. (And again I say, PHX? In August?) Maybe AS is "trying the new apron out" at PAE with just a couple of flights? They can't even operate a single flight to SAN or LA or SJC? (I believe these markets all saw 2 daily flights pre-COVID.) Can all the CA markets have failed miserably from PAE for AAG?

bb
 
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SANFan
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Re: Alaska Airlines Network Thread 2020

Mon Jun 29, 2020 8:28 am

BTW, I just checked AS's online schedules and Sept 1 shows 2 daily flights from PAE to SAN, LAX and SJC! (Those are the only markets I checked.) I realize these schedules could change but a lot of work has already been done on the Sept 1 release by AS and the PAE flights are there!

bb
 
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jfklganyc
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Re: Alaska Airlines Network Thread 2020

Mon Jun 29, 2020 11:53 am

[quote="Nicknuzzii"]A little embarrassing for AS to retreat again in August from EWR considering the B6 expansion. I would have thought AS would have at least matched the frequencies. The routes are legacy VX routes and were amongst the most profitable, what happened?[/


I think that’s why Jetblue made the move.

This isn’t the time for an aggressive response between three airlines on long haul flights.

Obviously these routes don’t make that much money for Alaska...They basically pulled Kennedy and Newark down to nothing thru Sept.


They have a product in J that isnt competitive on that route. They should’ve left a subfleet of Airbuses for the transcons with lie flat J
 
cledaybuck
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Joined: Thu Aug 18, 2016 6:07 pm

Re: Alaska Airlines Network Thread 2020

Mon Jun 29, 2020 12:19 pm

wnflyguy wrote:
gunsontheroof wrote:
SANFan wrote:
A question came up on the OAG thread this morning and maybe some here can clarify.

AS is showing that starting Aug 1, they will operate 1 daily flight from PAE to LAS and 1 to PHX. All other Paine Field routes are non-existent.

Huh?

Is the airport open or closed as of 8/1? If closed, how is AS handling 2 daily flights (and why is one to PHX, in August, in the midst of a huge COVID presence?) If open, what about all the other destinations? I realize this all could (and very well might) change but it seems that AAG should have some idea about and a handle on what's going on in August, even for a preliminary schedule release.

Thanks in advance for any help in figuring this out.

bb


I think PAE-PHX is the only route currently in play, but I'd be surprised if AS and UA didn't come back when things return to normal. PAE hit 1,000,000 pax in their first year, not a bad start.

https://www.heraldnet.com/business/alas ... e-per-day/


Well PAE also stated they have a business to run. The covid impact will force them to take back all unused slots from United and AlaskaAir. And seek out other airlines to service the airport.
They need the revenue to pay the bills and can't gamble on United or AlaskaAir maybe coming back some day.

Spirit, Frontier ,Southwest and JetBlue are all in prime position to jump in and gain marketshare.

AlaskaAir I think is going to be forced into defending it's turf in this pandemic should a strong player takes PAE up on getting slots.

Flyguy
This is some pretty fanciful thinking. These slots weren't a hot commodity before COVID.
As we celebrate mediocrity, all the boys upstairs want to see, how much you'll pay for what you used to get for free.
 
LAXBUR
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Re: Alaska Airlines Network Thread 2020

Mon Jun 29, 2020 4:58 pm

cledaybuck wrote:
wnflyguy wrote:
gunsontheroof wrote:

I think PAE-PHX is the only route currently in play, but I'd be surprised if AS and UA didn't come back when things return to normal. PAE hit 1,000,000 pax in their first year, not a bad start.

https://www.heraldnet.com/business/alas ... e-per-day/


Well PAE also stated they have a business to run. The covid impact will force them to take back all unused slots from United and AlaskaAir. And seek out other airlines to service the airport.
They need the revenue to pay the bills and can't gamble on United or AlaskaAir maybe coming back some day.

Spirit, Frontier ,Southwest and JetBlue are all in prime position to jump in and gain marketshare.

AlaskaAir I think is going to be forced into defending it's turf in this pandemic should a strong player takes PAE up on getting slots.

Flyguy
This is some pretty fanciful thinking. These slots weren't a hot commodity before COVID.


Yeah, I don’t see how in the best of times when few were interested equates to more interest during the worst of times.

PAE will likely stay a small niche airport for AS frequent flyers at most. WN still isn’t very strong in the Northwest so operating out of another airport in Seattle doesn’t make much sense. JetBlue is likely mostly serving folks originating in the Northeast who won’t be familiar with “Everett”. I agree. This is “fanciful thinking”.
 
LAXBUR
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Re: Alaska Airlines Network Thread 2020

Mon Jun 29, 2020 5:05 pm

SANFan wrote:
BTW, I just checked AS's online schedules and Sept 1 shows 2 daily flights from PAE to SAN, LAX and SJC! (Those are the only markets I checked.) I realize these schedules could change but a lot of work has already been done on the Sept 1 release by AS and the PAE flights are there!

bb


BOI, PDX, and GEG appear too. The Boise Airport said BOI-PAE is “delayed indefinitely” a few weeks ago in local media. I’d be surprised if this route sticks. I can’t speak for the others.
 
USAirALB
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Re: Alaska Airlines Network Thread 2020

Mon Jun 29, 2020 5:27 pm

LAXBUR wrote:
WN still isn’t very strong in the Northwest so operating out of another airport in Seattle doesn’t make much sense.

WN is actually very strong in the PNW from a brand recognition standpoint.

From a market perspective, they used to be incredibly strong, however retreated after suspending their intra-PNW routes.

They used to do:
GEG-PDX/SEA/SLC
SLC-BOI/RNO/SEA/PDX
PDX-BOI/RNO
BOI-SEA/RNO
RNO-SEA

Recall that they originally had planned to serve PAE with flights to both OAK and LAS. I wouldn't be surprised if they eventually serve PAE one day.
RJ85, F70, E135, E140, E145, E70, E75, E90, CR2, CR7, CR9, 717, 732, 733, 734, 735, 73G, 738, 739, 744ER, 752, 753, 762, 772, 77E, 77W, 789, 319, 320, 321, 332, 333, 343, 359, 388
 
LAXBUR
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Re: Alaska Airlines Network Thread 2020

Mon Jun 29, 2020 6:10 pm

USAirALB wrote:
LAXBUR wrote:
WN still isn’t very strong in the Northwest so operating out of another airport in Seattle doesn’t make much sense.

WN is actually very strong in the PNW from a brand recognition standpoint.

From a market perspective, they used to be incredibly strong, however retreated after suspending their intra-PNW routes.

They used to do:
GEG-PDX/SEA/SLC
SLC-BOI/RNO/SEA/PDX
PDX-BOI/RNO
BOI-SEA/RNO
RNO-SEA

Recall that they originally had planned to serve PAE with flights to both OAK and LAS. I wouldn't be surprised if they eventually serve PAE one day.


Cancelling a ton of routes isn’t really an indication they’re “strong” in the Northwest. Really confused by this rebuttal.

And WN gave up slots at PAE. Again, not sure what you’re getting at here.
 
wedgetail737
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Re: Alaska Airlines Network Thread 2020

Mon Jun 29, 2020 7:38 pm

SANFan wrote:
Back to the PAE situation. Hold on a second here. First, there is NO service on AS from PAE to anywhere (including PHX) right now; PHX & LAS begin Aug 1 yet no other routes return.

The article linked above was written in mid-May, at the height of the COVID effects on AS and other cx. There was no mention of the airport construction coming up which would close the terminal and temporarily drop all service to Paine Field. The article made it sound like AS was perhaps just going to give up on PAE service.

I don't know what network planning in SEA is planning for PAE but I really can't foresee them cancelling all but 2 routes from PAE.

Now all of a sudden people here are trying to figure out which airlines are going to swoop in and replace AS (and UA?) ! I think we need to take a step back, take a deep breath and chill for a few weeks. I really doubt that AS is going anywhere and will bring their service at PAE back as soon as (a) the airport apron work is finished, and (b) the traffic at the airport reaches levels that support that service. (I assume UA will do the same.) The COVID recovery is really just starting and PAE is, after all, a pretty small airport near a very big airport!

The question I asked up-thread was why only a single flight to PHX and to LAS on August 1 by AS. (And again I say, PHX? In August?) Maybe AS is "trying the new apron out" at PAE with just a couple of flights? They can't even operate a single flight to SAN or LA or SJC? (I believe these markets all saw 2 daily flights pre-COVID.) Can all the CA markets have failed miserably from PAE for AAG?

bb


https://www.heraldnet.com/business/pain ... p-repairs/

Here is the article about PAE construction.
 
wedgetail737
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Re: Alaska Airlines Network Thread 2020

Mon Jun 29, 2020 7:41 pm

LAXBUR wrote:
cledaybuck wrote:
wnflyguy wrote:

Well PAE also stated they have a business to run. The covid impact will force them to take back all unused slots from United and AlaskaAir. And seek out other airlines to service the airport.
They need the revenue to pay the bills and can't gamble on United or AlaskaAir maybe coming back some day.

Spirit, Frontier ,Southwest and JetBlue are all in prime position to jump in and gain marketshare.

AlaskaAir I think is going to be forced into defending it's turf in this pandemic should a strong player takes PAE up on getting slots.

Flyguy
This is some pretty fanciful thinking. These slots weren't a hot commodity before COVID.


Yeah, I don’t see how in the best of times when few were interested equates to more interest during the worst of times.

PAE will likely stay a small niche airport for AS frequent flyers at most. WN still isn’t very strong in the Northwest so operating out of another airport in Seattle doesn’t make much sense. JetBlue is likely mostly serving folks originating in the Northeast who won’t be familiar with “Everett”. I agree. This is “fanciful thinking”.


With only a handful of "slots" (something like 23, I can't remember), there's not that many opportunities. UA was already cutting SFO-PAE, but I had heard their DEN-PAE route was doing well. But overall, it was/is Alaska's airport.
 
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gunsontheroof
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Re: Alaska Airlines Network Thread 2020

Mon Jun 29, 2020 10:58 pm

USAirALB wrote:
LAXBUR wrote:
WN still isn’t very strong in the Northwest so operating out of another airport in Seattle doesn’t make much sense.

WN is actually very strong in the PNW from a brand recognition standpoint.

From a market perspective, they used to be incredibly strong, however retreated after suspending their intra-PNW routes.

They used to do:
GEG-PDX/SEA/SLC
SLC-BOI/RNO/SEA/PDX
PDX-BOI/RNO
BOI-SEA/RNO
RNO-SEA

Recall that they originally had planned to serve PAE with flights to both OAK and LAS. I wouldn't be surprised if they eventually serve PAE one day.


As LAXBUR said, not really sure how highlighting a bunch of cancelled routes demonstrates the strength of WN in the Northwest. They gradually backed off SEA when they didn't get their way at BFI years ago and pulled the plug on PAE before the terminal opened up. They pulled their regional flights (GEG, BOI) years ago and also downsized at PDX. They certainly have brand recognition here (some of that can be credited to California transplants), but not on the level of AS or even DL.
Picked a hell of a week to quit sniffing glue.
 
ericm2031
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Re: Alaska Airlines Network Thread 2020

Mon Jun 29, 2020 11:11 pm

AS just extended their schedule through the end of August, so anything beyond that is not a true schedule of what will be flown.
 
USAirALB
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Re: Alaska Airlines Network Thread 2020

Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:50 am

LAXBUR wrote:
USAirALB wrote:
LAXBUR wrote:
WN still isn’t very strong in the Northwest so operating out of another airport in Seattle doesn’t make much sense.

WN is actually very strong in the PNW from a brand recognition standpoint.

From a market perspective, they used to be incredibly strong, however retreated after suspending their intra-PNW routes.

They used to do:
GEG-PDX/SEA/SLC
SLC-BOI/RNO/SEA/PDX
PDX-BOI/RNO
BOI-SEA/RNO
RNO-SEA

Recall that they originally had planned to serve PAE with flights to both OAK and LAS. I wouldn't be surprised if they eventually serve PAE one day.


Cancelling a ton of routes isn’t really an indication they’re “strong” in the Northwest. Really confused by this rebuttal.

And WN gave up slots at PAE. Again, not sure what you’re getting at here.

You said "still isn't" (implying that they are new to the market) and I was highlighting how they once were strong and still have said brand recognition...
Hence:
gunsontheroof wrote:
They certainly have brand recognition here
RJ85, F70, E135, E140, E145, E70, E75, E90, CR2, CR7, CR9, 717, 732, 733, 734, 735, 73G, 738, 739, 744ER, 752, 753, 762, 772, 77E, 77W, 789, 319, 320, 321, 332, 333, 343, 359, 388
 
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gunsontheroof
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Re: Alaska Airlines Network Thread 2020

Tue Jun 30, 2020 5:30 am

USAirALB wrote:
LAXBUR wrote:
USAirALB wrote:
WN is actually very strong in the PNW from a brand recognition standpoint.

From a market perspective, they used to be incredibly strong, however retreated after suspending their intra-PNW routes.

They used to do:
GEG-PDX/SEA/SLC
SLC-BOI/RNO/SEA/PDX
PDX-BOI/RNO
BOI-SEA/RNO
RNO-SEA

Recall that they originally had planned to serve PAE with flights to both OAK and LAS. I wouldn't be surprised if they eventually serve PAE one day.


Cancelling a ton of routes isn’t really an indication they’re “strong” in the Northwest. Really confused by this rebuttal.

And WN gave up slots at PAE. Again, not sure what you’re getting at here.

You said "still isn't" (implying that they are new to the market) and I was highlighting how they once were strong and still have said brand recognition...
Hence:
gunsontheroof wrote:
They certainly have brand recognition here


Well, that was LAXBUR that (correctly) said that, not me. Brand-familiarity doesn't always translate into market share...Southwest has tried to make inroads to the PNW market for decades and has never really been able to gain a foothold. Of course, a lot of that can be attributed to Alaska, who enjoy an unusually high level of customer loyalty for an airline and have retained their market share for several years amidst a buildup by a powerful rival.
Picked a hell of a week to quit sniffing glue.
 
jplatts
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Re: Alaska Airlines Network Thread 2020

Tue Jun 30, 2020 10:40 am

gunsontheroof wrote:
Well, that was LAXBUR that (correctly) said that, not me. Brand-familiarity doesn't always translate into market share...Southwest has tried to make inroads to the PNW market for decades and has never really been able to gain a foothold. Of course, a lot of that can be attributed to Alaska, who enjoy an unusually high level of customer loyalty for an airline and have retained their market share for several years amidst a buildup by a powerful rival.


PDX was the largest WN station in the Pacific Northwest in 2019, and WN carried more passengers out of PDX than it did out of SEA in 2019. WN also had 17.75% market share at PDX compared to only 6.44% market share at SEA, but AS's SEA hub is much bigger than its PDX hub and DL has a hub at SEA.
 
LAXBUR
Posts: 412
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Re: Alaska Airlines Network Thread 2020

Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:22 pm

USAirALB wrote:
LAXBUR wrote:
USAirALB wrote:
WN is actually very strong in the PNW from a brand recognition standpoint.

From a market perspective, they used to be incredibly strong, however retreated after suspending their intra-PNW routes.

They used to do:
GEG-PDX/SEA/SLC
SLC-BOI/RNO/SEA/PDX
PDX-BOI/RNO
BOI-SEA/RNO
RNO-SEA

Recall that they originally had planned to serve PAE with flights to both OAK and LAS. I wouldn't be surprised if they eventually serve PAE one day.


Cancelling a ton of routes isn’t really an indication they’re “strong” in the Northwest. Really confused by this rebuttal.

And WN gave up slots at PAE. Again, not sure what you’re getting at here.

You said "still isn't" (implying that they are new to the market) and I was highlighting how they once were strong and still have said brand recognition...
Hence:
gunsontheroof wrote:
They certainly have brand recognition here


I’m not going to argue about your comprehension of “still isn’t”. And not sure what your argument is.

Anyways, as others have noted Southwest hasn’t done well in time in the Northwest; however you want to present it. Most of those routes you mentioned were from the Morris Air buyout anyways. It isn’t a knock against WN. Alaska’s FF program, schedule, and customer service keeps people in the Northwest engaged. WN adding a handful of flights to PAE won’t change that and that’s why they likely won’t do that. Again, they dropped out before they even started. WN can better take on Alaska in places like California. PAE would be a waste of time and money for WN.
 
tphuang
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Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: Alaska Airlines Network Thread 2020

Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:38 pm

This is an interesting article showing that AS cut back 20% of schedule close-in.
https://crankyflier.com/2020/06/30/alas ... k-in-july/

I assume that part of this is due to certain market not being open while other markets are showing declining demand due to recent COVID surges.
 
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SANFan
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Re: Alaska Airlines Network Thread 2020

Tue Jun 30, 2020 5:39 pm

tphuang wrote:
This is an interesting article showing that AS cut back 20% of schedule close-in.
https://crankyflier.com/2020/06/30/alas ... k-in-july/
I assume that part of this is due to certain market not being open while other markets are showing declining demand due to recent COVID surges.

This is common practice these days around the industry is it not and AS is certainly no exception. For example, AS's Aug 1 schedule that is now out is perfectly viable the way it is. Using SAN as an example, since I just finished a turn sked for it, almost every flight of the 34-flight sked is listed as daily (two exceptions are PVR which is 3X weekly and a SEA flight operating 4X weekly to use that aircraft on the alternate days.) I expect as August approaches, some of the flights could be reduced to less than daily as the carrier studies booking data. Perhaps even a flight could be eliminated if necessary. This is what has happened over the last few months and IMO is to be expected.

Also, AS had many HI flights scheduled for July (as they do for August) and they removed most of the July ones as HI remained 'closed'. Apparently a new policy has been developed for August travel to and from Hawaii so I expect the flights WILL operate on AS. (Frequencies could be reduced from daily of course if necessary.)

bb
 
Chugach
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AS responds to B6, announces LAX and FLL expansion

Thu Jul 16, 2020 12:27 pm

New routes are LAX-RSW/TPA/LIH/KOA/BZN/MFR/EUG, PDX-FLL, SAN-FLL, and SEA-RSW.

Discuss.

https://investor.alaskaair.com/news-rel ... s-2020-lax
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: AS claps back at B6, announces LAX and FLL expansion

Thu Jul 16, 2020 12:29 pm

Doesn't seem to be much overlap with B6, this is good for AA though
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catiii
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Re: AS claps back at B6, announces LAX and FLL expansion

Thu Jul 16, 2020 12:35 pm

Meanwhile no one will pay attention to this given the AA/B6 news.
 
phatfarmlines
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Re: AS claps back at B6, announces LAX and FLL expansion

Thu Jul 16, 2020 12:41 pm

More like AS clapping back at DL......

Open season on DL especially with the AA/B6 news.
 
MIflyer12
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Re: AS claps back at B6, announces LAX and FLL expansion

Thu Jul 16, 2020 12:41 pm

Props to AS for trying something at LAX. They need to grow - not just up and down the West Coast - to stay relevant to LAX travelers.
 
catiii
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Re: AS claps back at B6, announces LAX and FLL expansion

Thu Jul 16, 2020 12:44 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
Props to AS for trying something at LAX. They need to grow - not just up and down the West Coast - to stay relevant to LAX travelers.


Until they address their inferior hard product they’re going to remain irrelevant.
 
cschleic
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Re: AS claps back at B6, announces LAX and FLL expansion

Thu Jul 16, 2020 1:26 pm

Could some of this be replacing Eagle flights to LAX?
 
JAMBOJET
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Re: AS claps back at B6, announces LAX and FLL expansion

Thu Jul 16, 2020 1:38 pm

catiii wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:
Props to AS for trying something at LAX. They need to grow - not just up and down the West Coast - to stay relevant to LAX travelers.


Until they address their inferior hard product they’re going to remain irrelevant.


What's the matter with Alaska's hard product? They have more legroom in every cabin than American, Delta, and United and an in-flight entertainment system equivalent to narrow body product on AA, United, Southwest, Delta on the 717 product, Hawaiian etc. PTVs aren't everything.
 
jplatts
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Re: AS claps back at B6, announces LAX and FLL expansion

Thu Jul 16, 2020 1:43 pm

Chugach wrote:
New routes are LAX-RSW/TPA/LIH/KOA/BZN/MFR/EUG, PDX-FLL, SAN-FLL, and SEA-RSW.


There are some adds that WN could make in response to the announced AS adds out of LAX and SAN, including the return of LAX-TPA nonstop service, the addition of LAX-KOA nonstop service, and the addition of SAN-FLL nonstop service.
 
jplatts
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Re: AS claps back at B6, announces LAX and FLL expansion

Thu Jul 16, 2020 1:46 pm

AS adding PDX-TPA nonstop service might be a possibility with the lack of PDX-TPA nonstop service is one of the biggest holes in both the PDX and TPA markets. There are also other adds that could be made by AS out of PDX such as PDX-ATL/IND/BNA/RDU/SAT.

AS adding SFO-TPA nonstop service is also a possibility with UA currently being the only airline serving TPA nonstop from the San Francisco Bay Area.
 
USAirALB
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Re: AS claps back at B6, announces LAX and FLL expansion

Thu Jul 16, 2020 1:50 pm

The Florida routes are interesting.

AA attempted LAX-TPA a couple years back and it didn't quite work out. I think DL has been on the route for years now. The RSW adds are quite perplexing to me; I don't think anyone has attempted RSW-West Coast service. I never really thought RSW was popular for West Coast travelers as it seems much more a Midwestern market. I can't really see RSW working out in the long run.
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MIflyer12
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Re: AS claps back at B6, announces LAX and FLL expansion

Thu Jul 16, 2020 1:52 pm

catiii wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:
Props to AS for trying something at LAX. They need to grow - not just up and down the West Coast - to stay relevant to LAX travelers.


Until they address their inferior hard product they’re going to remain irrelevant.


That's a very NYC-LAX centric view of the industry. AS F on LAX-RSW/TPA/LIH/KOA/BZN/MFR/EUG, PDX-FLL, SAN-FLL, and SEA-RSW will be fully competitive. You don't see AA sending lie-flats on LAX-KOA.
 
tphuang
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Re: AS claps back at B6, announces LAX and FLL expansion

Thu Jul 16, 2020 2:05 pm

Aside from the two FLL routes, I don't see how this is a clap back at B6. In fact with the AA/B6 deal, I see more cooperation between AS and B6 down the road.
 
bretonrlong
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Re: AS claps back at B6, announces LAX and FLL expansion

Thu Jul 16, 2020 2:33 pm

Nice to see the RSW adds! Has Alaska ever flown to RSW before?
 
drdisque
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Re: AS claps back at B6, announces LAX and FLL expansion

Thu Jul 16, 2020 2:37 pm

Protecting their turf in the PNW by adding flights to LAX makes sense. Flinging several 737's a day from the west coast to Florida does not.
 
usflyer msp
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Re: AS claps back at B6, announces LAX and FLL expansion

Thu Jul 16, 2020 2:44 pm

USAirALB wrote:
The Florida routes are interesting.

AA attempted LAX-TPA a couple years back and it didn't quite work out. I think DL has been on the route for years now. The RSW adds are quite perplexing to me; I don't think anyone has attempted RSW-West Coast service. I never really thought RSW was popular for West Coast travelers as it seems much more a Midwestern market. I can't really see RSW working out in the long run.


I agree on RSW. RSW is where midwesterners go to golf, fish, and die. I don't see any market from the west coast. RSW must have some strong incentives.
 
slcdeltarumd11
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Re: AS claps back at B6, announces LAX and FLL expansion

Thu Jul 16, 2020 2:45 pm

LAX is gonna be really interesting. Someone who's short on cash is gonna cut flights . Hard to see who that is right now. Someone is gonna need to conserve cash here in 2021. Some of the legacies might have the least reasons to fight for lax. AA has PHX, dl has sea for it's future Pacific flights, and UA has SFO. Have to see how cash goes here in 2021 I think we see the legacies hurting the most.

The routes dont seem like they are afraid of b6 more that they want more lax and realize maybe a legacy will be hurting for cash and they can expand?
 
ATCtower
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Re: AS claps back at B6, announces LAX and FLL expansion

Thu Jul 16, 2020 2:51 pm

Never mind the context of this post, have we really sunk to the level where “claps back” is an acceptable title in a thread? My how we have degraded....

On that note, it was only a matter of time before AS made this move. I don’t know that it has a lot to do with B6 moves but more to do with AS seeing a spot to capitalize on an underserved situation.

This also seemingly opens the door to a wide range of Asia connections via Seattle vs having to transit NYC/Cal.
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jplatts
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Re: AS claps back at B6, announces LAX and FLL expansion

Thu Jul 16, 2020 3:21 pm

USAirALB wrote:
The Florida routes are interesting.

AA attempted LAX-TPA a couple years back and it didn't quite work out. I think DL has been on the route for years now. The RSW adds are quite perplexing to me; I don't think anyone has attempted RSW-West Coast service. I never really thought RSW was popular for West Coast travelers as it seems much more a Midwestern market. I can't really see RSW working out in the long run.


AS might be able to make LAX-RSW nonstop service work as the PDEW of RSW-LAX/BUR/LGB/SNA/ONT was 113 passengers per day in the January 2019 - September 2019 time period.

While the PDEW of SEA-RSW was only 54 passengers per day in the January 2019 - September 2019 time period, AS might be able to make SEA-RSW nonstop service work due to
(a) AS having connecting feed from Alaska, Hawaii, British Columbia, Washington State, and Oregon in addition to O&D traffic on SEA-RSW nonstop service,
(b) AS being able to significantly stimulate additional demand from SEA to other markets that were added by AS in the last 3 years such as CMH, IND, and PIT, and
(c) AS already serving FLL, MCO, and TPA in Florida nonstop from SEA.

While AS doesn't currently serve JAX, AS adding SEA-JAX nonstop service is a possibility as the PDEW of SEA-JAX was 100 passengers per day in the January 2019 - September 2019 time period, which is almost double the PDEW of SEA-RSW in the January 2019 - September 2019 time period.

While F9 has less-than-daily seasonal nonstop service to CLE from SEA, AS adding SEA-CLE nonstop service is a possibility with the lack of SEA-CLE nonstop service on a non-ULCC being a huge hole with the PDEW of SEA-CLE being 218 passengers per day in Q3 2019 and with over 66% of the passengers traveling between SEA and CLE connecting on airlines other than F9 in Q3 2019.

I had also previously mentioned AS adding SEA-BDL and SEA-ORF nonstop service as possibilities with BDL and ORF being two of the top destinations that do not currently have any nonstop service out of SEA.
 
32andBelow
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Re: AS claps back at B6, announces LAX and FLL expansion

Thu Jul 16, 2020 3:31 pm

That’s a lot of transcons. Will they have the frames for this once their west coast routes are back up the full steam?
 
MIAFLLPBIFlyer
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Re: AS claps back at B6, announces LAX and FLL expansion

Thu Jul 16, 2020 3:42 pm

tphuang wrote:
Aside from the two FLL routes, I don't see how this is a clap back at B6. In fact with the AA/B6 deal, I see more cooperation between AS and B6 down the road.


Something interesting here is the primary competitor for AA out of MIA on west coast routes is B6 and AS out of FLL. While AA is cozying up with both carriers, they're now battling at FLL and potentially impacting AA's loads out of MIA. Or perhaps more importantly strategically long-term it blocks WN/UA/DL from ever having a presence in these markets, which is to AA's advantage in the bigger scheme of things. I am think out loud on this one but it is quite interesting because it does potentially block any new entrant from South Florida-West Coast unless they want to role the dice on PBI which is probably never happening.
 
wnflyguy
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Re: AS claps back at B6, announces LAX and FLL expansion

Thu Jul 16, 2020 4:00 pm

With AA scaling down the Eagle flying from LAX along with LAWA putting Terminal 9 on hold.
Maybe AS can take over the Eagles nest to increase E175 flying from LAX.

Flyguy
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CobaltScar
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Re: AS claps back at B6, announces LAX and FLL expansion

Thu Jul 16, 2020 4:10 pm

There is no comparison between hard/soft product on a AS and B6 flight, especially on transon.
 
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SANFan
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Re: AS claps back at B6, announces LAX and FLL expansion

Thu Jul 16, 2020 4:15 pm

In a slightly different view from most of the posts so far, very nice to see AS taking a direct stab at Blue with SAN-FLL! (I wonder if this might also have a slight hint toward AS's "buddies" over at AA to be careful with what they are apparently cooking up with B6 today...? I refer to AA's SAN-MIA service.)

This addition (SAN-Lauderdale) comes as a very pleasant surprise. I think most of us were expecting to see PDX-FLL announced since AS has been hinting at it for a couple of weeks now. I had wondered if AS might take a swipe at Blue for adding SAN-EWR and SAN-FLL sure seemed like a good fit for such a swipe so it's all good I say!

Next I'd love to see AS jump into SAN-TPA -- keeping the Florida theme and all -- since that's a route that I believe the carrier has been looking at for a while now; I'm not sure what WN's plans are for the route. Let's remember that AS has already scheduled daily-double flights between SAN and MCO for the winter so that's more toward the Florida theme...

Thank you Alaska for giving us here in SAN something to chew on as part of this big and important announcement!

bb
 
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klm617
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Re: AS claps back at B6, announces LAX and FLL expansion

Thu Jul 16, 2020 4:48 pm

This would be a great time for AS to add DTW-LAX. They seem to be doing pretty well with DTW-SEA
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