Boeing bid are suffering from uncertainty. Boeing cash situation is in a vicious circle now even if they stoped the 737 line to reduce the bleeding. No more 737 deliveries mean no final or progress payment. 777-X delays also mean no final payment for now. Same with 787, reducing rate reduces cash entry. Right now no one except FR maybe is going to buy a max, so no downpayment either for the 737. The 777-X has lost "firm" orders lately so no more cash coming in. Even if Boeing has deep pocket, good line of credit and ultimatly the support of the US administration, it can be scary for an airline to comit and pay a downpayment for aircraft they may never receive if Boeing situation doesn't improve fast. Vicious circle it is until we know at least when the max will fly again.
I don't understand how the share is still "so high"
The coronavirus outbreak and the slowing in growth in the World economy are factors to be considered, too. As an airline CEO I´m currently not really in a position to explain to my supervisory board why I exactely NOW need to sign for an order. Most indicators point towards a contracting market on the orders side, and the likelyhood of many NTUs both at Airbus and Boeing grows by the day.
I expect that it will take months, if not years, to have the Chinese international network back in place simply due to demand not being there for a long time, and that at a time when all Chinese carrier were in a heavy growth mode. The effect will be that the overhang of capacity will be there for quite some time, and every plane delivered further will worsen the situation.
I think we´re in for a heavy deferral and cancellation year, and I wouldn´t be too surprised to see both Airbus and Boeing be close to net zero order intake minimum first half of this year, with some opportunity buyers coming along in second half, snapping up NTUs. Airbus might be slightly more prone to this effect, simply because Boeing isn´t really delivering at any volume currently anyway.
Flown: A319/320/321,A332/3,A343/346, A359, A380,AT4,AT7,B712, B732/3/4/5/7/8/9,B742/4,B752/3, B762/763,B772/77W,CR2/7/9/K,ER3/4,E70/75/90/95, F50/70/100,M11,L15,SF3,S20, AR8/1, 142/143,... 330.860 miles and counting.