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Momo1435
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Re: Airbus and Boeing 2020 Orders

Tue Apr 14, 2020 4:43 pm

The actual 191 MAX cancellations so far this year:

Air Canada: -11x (February)
ALC: -9x (February)
JIA: -10x (February)
Oman Air: -10x (February)
BBJ: -2x (1x February, 1x March)
GOL: -34x (March)
Unidentified: -37x (March)
Smartwings: -5x (March)
Avolon: -73x (both Avolon orders and the CIT order were reduced) (March)


The 2020 ASC 606 Changes also increased by 9 so far this year for the 737, the biggest part of the 141 total is the Jet Airways order for 125 MAX which has not been fully cancelled yet.

The 747 is now also -4 in the 2020 ASC 606 Changes, so it looks like Volga-Dnepr UK Ltd will not take delivery of their remaining order. The 777 number increased from -1 to -14. This should include the Hong Kong Int'l Aviation for 6x 777F, the Pakistan International Airline for 5x 77W, LATAM 2x 777F and another order for 2 more.

It's always good to take into account that the ASC 606 Changes are not reset in the new year. You should take this into account if you compare different years, a good part of the current -160 were already in last years final total of -141.
 
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crimsonchin
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Re: Airbus and Boeing 2020 Orders

Tue Apr 14, 2020 6:37 pm

frigatebird wrote:
jbs2886 wrote:
scbriml wrote:

After scanning the O&D spreadsheet

SaudiGulf has cancelled their entire order of 16 x A220-300

A350 Changes:
LATAM -4 x A359, -6 x A35K
Undisclosed -10 x A359
Kuwait Airways +5 x A359


10x A359 have to be DL b/c DL was negotiating taking over 10x orders from LATAM. Could be a lessor on behalf of DL, too. (Yes, I'm aware of SEC requirements to announce material events.)


Well, DL did announce they were taking over 10 A350s from LATAM, so DL could be behind the undisclosed order for 10 A350s.


https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/delt ... 11846.html

Looks like it's now been confirmed?
 
Someone83
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Re: Airbus and Boeing 2020 Orders

Tue Apr 14, 2020 7:46 pm

So how many cancellations in March alone then?
 
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Momo1435
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Re: Airbus and Boeing 2020 Orders

Tue Apr 14, 2020 8:17 pm

Someone83 wrote:
So how many cancellations in March alone then?

March = -150x 737 MAX
 
Ishrion
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Re: Airbus and Boeing 2020 Orders

Tue Apr 14, 2020 8:21 pm

Delta confirms it’s taking over the 10 LATAM A350s that were cancelled.

Just being 100% sure here, they aren’t taking over those 6 LATAM A350-1000s, right?

Delta was the undisclosed order for March, which was 10 A350-900s?
 
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Momo1435
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Re: Airbus and Boeing 2020 Orders

Tue Apr 14, 2020 8:54 pm

Ishrion wrote:
Delta confirms it’s taking over the 10 LATAM A350s that were cancelled.

Just being 100% sure here, they aren’t taking over those 6 LATAM A350-1000s, right?

Delta was the undisclosed order for March, which was 10 A350-900s?

This is what is suggested in the media, but it has not been officially confirmed by either Delta or Airbus.

So if you want to be 100% sure you have to wait until the order is identified, or if we see a new order for Delta in next months update or in any official communication from Delta or Airbus.

But I think we can be 99% sure that this was indeed the order transfer from LATAM to Delta.
 
T4thH
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Re: Airbus and Boeing 2020 Orders

Tue Apr 14, 2020 9:31 pm

I am surprised, that not already many more airlines have taken the opportunity, to cancel a part or the full number of ordered B737 MAX jets. They are far behind production schedule, they will be likely two years behind. Airlines shall have the chance to cancel orders without penalty, getting back the first payments, perhaps even Boeing will have to pay break up fees to the airlines for not delivery in time?
 
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moo
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Re: Airbus and Boeing 2020 Orders

Tue Apr 14, 2020 10:38 pm

ShamrockBoi330 wrote:
Jefford717 wrote:
When will Airbus (if ever) remove those Iran Air orders from its order book? Any guess?


Are those contracts still officially in place, or have they been cancelled? Afterall, Trump is not going to be in power forever, so hopefully these can still get delivered at some point, they are desperately needed.


I wouldn't be surprised if they are in legal limbo - can't deliver them because of American sanctions, cant cancel them and return deposits because of American sanctions... Same as the Iraqi ones for A300s way back when.
 
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PepeTheFrog
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Re: Airbus and Boeing 2020 Orders

Thu Apr 16, 2020 5:33 am

T4thH wrote:
I am surprised, that not already many more airlines have taken the opportunity, to cancel a part or the full number of ordered B737 MAX jets. They are far behind production schedule, they will be likely two years behind. Airlines shall have the chance to cancel orders without penalty, getting back the first payments, perhaps even Boeing will have to pay break up fees to the airlines for not delivery in time?


Perhaps there will be a bigger slaughter in April.

Remember, customers are allowed to cancel the order after 12 months, so March was just the first month they could do that.
Good moaning!
 
chiad
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Re: Airbus and Boeing 2020 Orders

Thu Apr 16, 2020 8:09 am

PepeTheFrog wrote:
T4thH wrote:
I am surprised, that not already many more airlines have taken the opportunity, to cancel a part or the full number of ordered B737 MAX jets. They are far behind production schedule, they will be likely two years behind. Airlines shall have the chance to cancel orders without penalty, getting back the first payments, perhaps even Boeing will have to pay break up fees to the airlines for not delivery in time?


Perhaps there will be a bigger slaughter in April.

Remember, customers are allowed to cancel the order after 12 months, so March was just the first month they could do that.


I beleive we'll see some 1000, or more, B737 MAX' cancelled or converted to others models during 2020.
 
goosebayguy
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Re: Airbus and Boeing 2020 Orders

Thu Apr 16, 2020 8:10 am

PepeTheFrog wrote:
T4thH wrote:
I am surprised, that not already many more airlines have taken the opportunity, to cancel a part or the full number of ordered B737 MAX jets. They are far behind production schedule, they will be likely two years behind. Airlines shall have the chance to cancel orders without penalty, getting back the first payments, perhaps even Boeing will have to pay break up fees to the airlines for not delivery in time?


Perhaps there will be a bigger slaughter in April.

Remember, customers are allowed to cancel the order after 12 months, so March was just the first month they could do that.



The 12 month mark also means Boeing has to return deposits for any cancelled orders. Right now cash is what airlines need to survive and so survival may e behing these cancellations?
 
T4thH
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Re: Airbus and Boeing 2020 Orders

Thu Apr 16, 2020 8:40 am

PepeTheFrog wrote:
T4thH wrote:
I am surprised, that not already many more airlines have taken the opportunity, to cancel a part or the full number of ordered B737 MAX jets. They are far behind production schedule, they will be likely two years behind. Airlines shall have the chance to cancel orders without penalty, getting back the first payments, perhaps even Boeing will have to pay break up fees to the airlines for not delivery in time?


Perhaps there will be a bigger slaughter in April.

Remember, customers are allowed to cancel the order after 12 months, so March was just the first month they could do that.

I expect/fear, the aviation industry has been harmed for years, it will need 2 to 3 years, till up to date numbers of flights, routes and passengers will be reached again. Fuel prizes are now low and I fear, with a global depression in 2020 and part of 2021 it will stay low.
There is now a surplus of smallbody jets (also the surplus for widebody will be even higher), there was already a surplus prior begin of the pandemic and too many airlines have had ordered too many jets....
Every airline will have to take the opportunity to defer or cancel orders and the MAX crisis with exaggerated delivery delays is just the best match to get out of contracts without penalty or even with a royalty to be paid by Boeing as penalty. Minimum deposits will have to be reimbursed by Boeing.

Question: Does someone know, which MAX delivery GOL has cancelled? The MAX jets were in delivery when the MAX crisis has started, first received. Will they possibly not any more take up these MAX jets, which have been produced till Jan-2020 and are now parked by Boeing? Will we see soon freshly re-painted former GOL jets as white tails?
 
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Stitch
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Re: Airbus and Boeing 2020 Orders

Fri Apr 17, 2020 2:51 pm

GECAS has cancelled orders for 69 737MAX, leaving 82 still on order: https://www.seattletimes.com/business/b ... oeing-jet/
 
Lewton
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Re: Airbus and Boeing 2020 Orders

Fri Apr 17, 2020 5:37 pm

Makes sense.
Who would they dump all those MAX on?
From Hamburg with love.
 
chiad
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Re: Airbus and Boeing 2020 Orders

Fri Apr 17, 2020 9:43 pm

Stitch wrote:
GECAS has cancelled orders for 69 737MAX, leaving 82 still on order: https://www.seattletimes.com/business/b ... oeing-jet/


I doubt that the airlines and leasing companies will suffer any penalties cancelling the MAX as the program is, in all practical sence, 3 years "delayed".
 
BobLoblah
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Re: Airbus and Boeing 2020 Orders

Sun Apr 19, 2020 12:33 am

Momo1435 wrote:
The actual 191 MAX cancellations so far this year:

Air Canada: -11x (February)
ALC: -9x (February)
JIA: -10x (February)
Oman Air: -10x (February)
BBJ: -2x (1x February, 1x March)
GOL: -34x (March)
Unidentified: -37x (March)
Smartwings: -5x (March)
Avolon: -73x (both Avolon orders and the CIT order were reduced) (March)


The 2020 ASC 606 Changes also increased by 9 so far this year for the 737, the biggest part of the 141 total is the Jet Airways order for 125 MAX which has not been fully cancelled yet.

The 747 is now also -4 in the 2020 ASC 606 Changes, so it looks like Volga-Dnepr UK Ltd will not take delivery of their remaining order. The 777 number increased from -1 to -14. This should include the Hong Kong Int'l Aviation for 6x 777F, the Pakistan International Airline for 5x 77W, LATAM 2x 777F and another order for 2 more.

It's always good to take into account that the ASC 606 Changes are not reset in the new year. You should take this into account if you compare different years, a good part of the current -160 were already in last years final total of -141.


My records show the ASC 606 changes for the 777 went from +1 (The final cancellation of a LATAM frame in feb added one to ASC 606) to -14, a change of 15. My best guess is that 9 are the Volga-Dnepr frames to match the ASC 606 changes to the 747 orderbook, and most likely the 6 for Hong Kong. But it is rather hard to know for sure.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Airbus and Boeing 2020 Orders

Sun Apr 19, 2020 3:57 am

chiad wrote:
Stitch wrote:
GECAS has cancelled orders for 69 737MAX, leaving 82 still on order: https://www.seattletimes.com/business/b ... oeing-jet/


I doubt that the airlines and leasing companies will suffer any penalties cancelling the MAX as the program is, in all practical sence, 3 years "delayed".

This is significant as this is also a cancelation of 138 LEAP engines for CFM/GE.


Other leasing companies will cancel more.

Unfortunately, the MAX delays will allow many cancelations.

Lightsaber
Winter is coming.
 
ShamrockBoi330
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Re: Airbus and Boeing 2020 Orders

Mon Apr 20, 2020 4:12 am

China's CDB cancels 29 MAX, keeps 70, converts all MAX10s to MAX 8s, deliveries pushed out.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-boei ... SKBN222033

https://invst.ly/qh-lv
 
LJ
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Re: Airbus and Boeing 2020 Orders

Mon Apr 20, 2020 6:48 am

ShamrockBoi330 wrote:
China's CDB cancels 29 MAX, keeps 70, converts all MAX10s to MAX 8s, deliveries pushed out.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-boei ... SKBN222033

https://invst.ly/qh-lv


Just out of curiosity, if I look at Wiki I come to 79 orders from CDB of which 2 have been delivered, However, according to the press release they've 99 orders outstanding, which means that Wiki is off by 22. I usually look at the Boeing order sheet, but can't access it right now (somehow our company server blocks the order sheet part of Boeings website). Am i correct that wiki is incorrect?

BTW they mention that 20 of the 70 are pushed back to 2024- 2025. Question: does anybody know what the time frame for the other 50 is?

The following quote was telling:

Boeing said in a statement it continued to partner with leasing company customers to help them balance their portfolios in a challenging market.


Seems that still more is coming.
 
Geoff1947
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Re: Airbus and Boeing 2020 Orders

Mon Apr 20, 2020 7:18 am

Boeing’s end of March figures show 78 ordered and 1 delivered.

Geoff
 
Someone83
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Re: Airbus and Boeing 2020 Orders

Mon Apr 20, 2020 7:25 am

Could some of the missing orders be among those "unidentified"?
 
Lewton
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Re: Airbus and Boeing 2020 Orders

Mon Apr 20, 2020 9:56 am

They have complicated things so much with those "unidentified" orders that even they don't know anymore.
From Hamburg with love.
 
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PepeTheFrog
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Re: Airbus and Boeing 2020 Orders

Mon Apr 20, 2020 12:31 pm

With the collapse of Norwegian today, I'm afraid the list of cancellations will pile up soon.
Good moaning!
 
LJ
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Re: Airbus and Boeing 2020 Orders

Mon Apr 20, 2020 5:51 pm

PepeTheFrog wrote:
With the collapse of Norwegian today, I'm afraid the list of cancellations will pile up soon.


Noregian didn't collapse, only 4 of their recruitment agencies.

Geoff1947 wrote:
Boeing’s end of March figures show 78 ordered and 1 delivered.


CDB Ireland also placed an order , which was already delivered.

Lewton wrote:
They have complicated things so much with those "unidentified" orders that even they don't know anymore.


Well not that "undentified" as CDB lists 101 on order on their on website.
https://www.cdbaviation.aero/our-fleet/#!/orderbook

BTW according to the same website CDB has 2 A330NEOs on order. However, no A330NEO is listed in the Airbus spreadsheet for them. Can we conclude that the 2 A330-NEOs are also "unidentified" or were they cancelled in 2019 (and CDB didn't update their website)?
 
Someone83
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Re: Airbus and Boeing 2020 Orders

Mon Apr 20, 2020 6:07 pm

LJ wrote:
BTW according to the same website CDB has 2 A330NEOs on order. However, no A330NEO is listed in the Airbus spreadsheet for them. Can we conclude that the 2 A330-NEOs are also "unidentified" or were they cancelled in 2019 (and CDB didn't update their website)?


Or is it a possibility that they have a future sale-leaseback agreement with an airline with A330neo on order?
 
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Momo1435
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Re: Airbus and Boeing 2020 Orders

Mon Apr 20, 2020 6:28 pm

On the same date as the CDB Ireland order there's an unidentified order for 20 more MAX. The 1 that was delivered was most likely the one that was identified. That brings the total to 99, which adds up to the number in the news reports.
 
ShamrockBoi330
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Re: Airbus and Boeing 2020 Orders

Thu Apr 23, 2020 1:08 am

ALAFCO are suing BA for cancelled 40 x MAX order, article says orser was cancelled March 6th, have these numbers been reported anywhere previously? Could these be the unidentified cancellation in March's numbers?

ALAFCO said it canceled its order on March 6 after Boeing failed to deliver nine aircraft on time. It said Boeing has resisted its claim that the problems amounted to a "non-excusable delay" that would justify repayment.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/22/boeing- ... order.html
 
Ishrion
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Re: Airbus and Boeing 2020 Orders

Thu Apr 23, 2020 1:13 am

ShamrockBoi330 wrote:
ALAFCO are suing BA for cancelled 40 x MAX order, article says orser was cancelled March 6th, have these numbers been reported anywhere previously? Could these be the unidentified cancellation in March's numbers?

ALAFCO said it canceled its order on March 6 after Boeing failed to deliver nine aircraft on time. It said Boeing has resisted its claim that the problems amounted to a "non-excusable delay" that would justify repayment.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/22/boeing- ... order.html


Weren’t there around 36 undisclosed cancellations in March?
 
LJ
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Re: Airbus and Boeing 2020 Orders

Thu Apr 23, 2020 6:13 am

Ishrion wrote:
ShamrockBoi330 wrote:
ALAFCO are suing BA for cancelled 40 x MAX order, article says orser was cancelled March 6th, have these numbers been reported anywhere previously? Could these be the unidentified cancellation in March's numbers?

ALAFCO said it canceled its order on March 6 after Boeing failed to deliver nine aircraft on time. It said Boeing has resisted its claim that the problems amounted to a "non-excusable delay" that would justify repayment.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/22/boeing- ... order.html


Weren’t there around 36 undisclosed cancellations in March?


Yes,

Momo1435 wrote:
The actual 191 MAX cancellations so far this year:
....
Unidentified: -37x (March)


However, that still leaves 3 unexplained (unless the article is incorrect and the exact number should be 37 or Boeing posted 3 as "delivered"). Are they still in the order sheet (which is blocked from the server at work)
 
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scbriml
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Re: Airbus and Boeing 2020 Orders

Thu Apr 23, 2020 7:27 am

ShamrockBoi330 wrote:
ALAFCO are suing BA for cancelled 40 x MAX order, article says orser was cancelled March 6th, have these numbers been reported anywhere previously? Could these be the unidentified cancellation in March's numbers?

ALAFCO said it canceled its order on March 6 after Boeing failed to deliver nine aircraft on time. It said Boeing has resisted its claim that the problems amounted to a "non-excusable delay" that would justify repayment.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/22/boeing- ... order.html


Leeham lists the MAX cancellations for this year and ALAFCO isn't included.
https://leehamnews.com/2020/04/22/hotr- ... e-january/

Boeing still lists ALAFCO as having 40 MAX on order with all 40 still outstanding. So, for whatever reason, Boeing clearly doesn't consider those frames cancelled yet. I suspect this won't be the last disagreement over MAX cancellations.
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Lewton
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Re: Airbus and Boeing 2020 Orders

Thu Apr 23, 2020 9:22 am

Leasers like ALAFCO are using the delays (that started over a year ago) as an excuse to cancel orders for aircraft that due to COVID-19 nobody will want to lease.

For serious airlines the combination of the 2 events is a better outcome than each one separately. For example Southwest might have suffered a bit due to the lack of new aircraft for several months, but now that COVID-19 has forced them to reduce flights to unprecedented levels, they are happy that they did not receive new MAX for over a year.
From Hamburg with love.
 
mig17
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Re: Airbus and Boeing 2020 Orders

Thu Apr 23, 2020 10:46 am

Lewton wrote:
Leasers like ALAFCO are using the delays (that started over a year ago) as an excuse to cancel orders for aircraft that due to COVID-19 nobody will want to lease.

It is one way to look at it. The other is there would have been lots of 737 cancellation earlier following the MAX crisis if there wasn't a huge jam in the narrowbody market. Now that "the waiting line" is gone, nothing holds airlines to cancel anymore. Boeing is still in breach.
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LJ
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Re: Airbus and Boeing 2020 Orders

Thu Apr 23, 2020 11:28 am

Lewton wrote:
Leasers like ALAFCO are using the delays (that started over a year ago) as an excuse to cancel orders for aircraft that due to COVID-19 nobody will want to lease.

For serious airlines the combination of the 2 events is a better outcome than each one separately. For example Southwest might have suffered a bit due to the lack of new aircraft for several months, but now that COVID-19 has forced them to reduce flights to unprecedented levels, they are happy that they did not receive new MAX for over a year.


However, the article assumes that the order was cancelled on March 6th, weeks before COVID-19 could cause disruption at Boeing. I doubt that COVID-19 can be used as an excuse.
 
WestWing
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Re: Airbus and Boeing 2020 Orders

Mon Apr 27, 2020 7:36 am

A couple of years ago Boeing/AA announced that AA would receive 22 new 787-8s which would be owned by Boeing Capital and leased to AA. Something interesting is that when the first of these 22 was delivered last month the O&D site shows that it was delivered to AA rather than to Boeing Capital. Previously, AA had 20 orders for the 787-8 (all delivered) and Boeing Capital had 22 orders but now, with the March Update, O&D is showing 21 orders for each.

Another wrinkle is that FlightGlobal reported that these 22 AA 787-8 leases would be taken over by BOC aviation. Maybe the way the deal is now re-structured is AA takes delivery instead of Boeing Capital and then immediately sell to BOC aviation for future leaseback.?
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T4thH
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Re: Airbus and Boeing 2020 Orders

Thu May 07, 2020 4:50 pm

Airbus Apr-2020 numbers are out:
https://www.airbus.com/aircraft/market/orders-deliveries.html
The month in review: April 2020

Airbus logged net orders in April for nine commercial aircraft from its A320 product line from Avolon.

By April 30th, Airbus’ gross orders in 2020 totalled 365 aircraft. After cancellations the net orders stand at 299 aircraft.

During the month, 14 deliveries were made from the A320, A330 and A350 XWB aircraft families.

Business in April brings the overall total orders logged by Airbus since its creation to 20,407 commercial aircraft, which includes 15,572 A320 Family aircraft, 1,819 A330s, 930 A350 XWBs, 642 A220s and 251 A380s.

In April, 12 A320neo Family aircraft were delivered. For Airbus widebody aircraft, one A350 XWBs was provided in the A350-900 configuration; along with one A330ceo.

Among the month’s notable deliveries was the first 100% e-deliveries to Pegasus Airlines.

Airbus’ backlog of aircraft remaining to be delivered as of 30th April stood at 7,645, comprised 6,217 A320 Family aircraft, 529 A220s, 322 A330s, 568 A350 XWBs and nine A380s.


As just checked: No new cancellations.
9 new orders by Avolon on 01-Apr-2020: 8x A320 Neo and 1x A321 Neo.
Not bad for Airbus in this bad times.
 
chiad
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Re: Airbus and Boeing 2020 Orders

Thu May 07, 2020 5:41 pm

T4thH wrote:
Airbus Apr-2020 numbers are out:
https://www.airbus.com/aircraft/market/orders-deliveries.html
The month in review: April 2020

Airbus logged net orders in April for nine commercial aircraft from its A320 product line from Avolon.

By April 30th, Airbus’ gross orders in 2020 totalled 365 aircraft. After cancellations the net orders stand at 299 aircraft.

During the month, 14 deliveries were made from the A320, A330 and A350 XWB aircraft families.

Business in April brings the overall total orders logged by Airbus since its creation to 20,407 commercial aircraft, which includes 15,572 A320 Family aircraft, 1,819 A330s, 930 A350 XWBs, 642 A220s and 251 A380s.

In April, 12 A320neo Family aircraft were delivered. For Airbus widebody aircraft, one A350 XWBs was provided in the A350-900 configuration; along with one A330ceo.

Among the month’s notable deliveries was the first 100% e-deliveries to Pegasus Airlines.

Airbus’ backlog of aircraft remaining to be delivered as of 30th April stood at 7,645, comprised 6,217 A320 Family aircraft, 529 A220s, 322 A330s, 568 A350 XWBs and nine A380s.


As just checked: No new cancellations.
9 new orders by Avolon on 01-Apr-2020: 8x A320 Neo and 1x A321 Neo.
Not bad for Airbus in this bad times.


Orderwise it's much better than I feared.
 
T4thH
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Re: Airbus and Boeing 2020 Orders

Thu May 07, 2020 10:23 pm

chiad wrote:
T4thH wrote:
Airbus Apr-2020 numbers are out:
https://www.airbus.com/aircraft/market/orders-deliveries.html
The month in review: April 2020

Airbus logged net orders in April for nine commercial aircraft from its A320 product line from Avolon.

By April 30th, Airbus’ gross orders in 2020 totalled 365 aircraft. After cancellations the net orders stand at 299 aircraft.

During the month, 14 deliveries were made from the A320, A330 and A350 XWB aircraft families.

Business in April brings the overall total orders logged by Airbus since its creation to 20,407 commercial aircraft, which includes 15,572 A320 Family aircraft, 1,819 A330s, 930 A350 XWBs, 642 A220s and 251 A380s.

In April, 12 A320neo Family aircraft were delivered. For Airbus widebody aircraft, one A350 XWBs was provided in the A350-900 configuration; along with one A330ceo.

Among the month’s notable deliveries was the first 100% e-deliveries to Pegasus Airlines.

Airbus’ backlog of aircraft remaining to be delivered as of 30th April stood at 7,645, comprised 6,217 A320 Family aircraft, 529 A220s, 322 A330s, 568 A350 XWBs and nine A380s.


As just checked: No new cancellations.
9 new orders by Avolon on 01-Apr-2020: 8x A320 Neo and 1x A321 Neo.
Not bad for Airbus in this bad times.


Orderwise it's much better than I feared.


Yes, I was also surprised, as everyone here? I have already feared the big massacre in the Airbus order books....this is still pending. But latest, when the first airline with Airbus planes in the order books will vanish, we will see the cancellations.

But airlines, who have Airbus A320 or A220 in their order books, have a benefit to airlines with the MAX. To give a loan, a bank need a form of security, that they will be able to calculate the risk. When will the MAX be certified again? Will the passengers be willed to fly again with the MAX? Or will even after years some % try to avoid it? Few low number of % difference in load is the disparity between; they will make money or they will loose money. To get a credit from a bank, a MAX order is now just a killer, as banks are not able to calculate the risk.
 
Lewton
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Re: Airbus and Boeing 2020 Orders

Fri May 08, 2020 9:24 am

On the other hand airlines that have ordered MAX have the advantage that they'll probably never have to pay for it. :D
From Hamburg with love.
 
LJ
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Re: Airbus and Boeing 2020 Orders

Fri May 08, 2020 9:24 am

T4thH wrote:
9 new orders by Avolon on 01-Apr-2020: 8x A320 Neo and 1x A321 Neo.
Not bad for Airbus in this bad times.


Thus they cancel 75 MAX citing "the most challenging period in the history of commercial aviation." and the disruption of COVID-19 but order 9 A32XNEO? It's a strange world.
 
FluidFlow
Posts: 710
Joined: Wed Apr 10, 2019 6:39 am

Re: Airbus and Boeing 2020 Orders

Fri May 08, 2020 9:29 am

LJ wrote:
T4thH wrote:
9 new orders by Avolon on 01-Apr-2020: 8x A320 Neo and 1x A321 Neo.
Not bad for Airbus in this bad times.


Thus they cancel 75 MAX citing "the most challenging period in the history of commercial aviation." and the disruption of COVID-19 but order 9 A32XNEO? It's a strange world.


As this is a leasing company, I guess someone didn't wanted the MAX anymore and Avolon cancelled on behalf of them, while someone else wanted more NEOs. Also, due to the MAX disaster, it is way easier to cancel MAX orders. So Avolon reduced their exposure while getting more "safe bets" on board.
 
Flying-Tiger
Posts: 4049
Joined: Mon Aug 23, 1999 5:35 am

Re: Airbus and Boeing 2020 Orders

Fri May 08, 2020 9:37 am

FluidFlow wrote:
LJ wrote:
T4thH wrote:
9 new orders by Avolon on 01-Apr-2020: 8x A320 Neo and 1x A321 Neo.
Not bad for Airbus in this bad times.


Thus they cancel 75 MAX citing "the most challenging period in the history of commercial aviation." and the disruption of COVID-19 but order 9 A32XNEO? It's a strange world.


As this is a leasing company, I guess someone didn't wanted the MAX anymore and Avolon cancelled on behalf of them, while someone else wanted more NEOs. Also, due to the MAX disaster, it is way easier to cancel MAX orders. So Avolon reduced their exposure while getting more "safe bets" on board.


Avolon stated that the 75 MAX cancelled had not been placed, thus it appears not to be directly airline related but rather financially motivated.

I guess the new Airbus orders were part of a rearrangement of the order book with them. Defer a number of planes by xyv years, but no delay charges to be paid, instead the order book increased. Probably means for both no cash-in/cash-out issues at the moment.
Flown: A319/320/321,A332/3,A343/346, A359, A380,AT4,AT7,B712, B732/3/4/5/7/8/9,B742/4,B752/3, B762/763,B772/77W,CR2/7/9/K,ER3/4,E70/75/90/95, F50/70/100,M11,L15,SF3,S20, AR8/1, 142/143,... 330.860 miles and counting.
 
smartplane
Posts: 1510
Joined: Fri Aug 03, 2018 9:23 pm

Re: Airbus and Boeing 2020 Orders

Fri May 08, 2020 9:45 am

WestWing wrote:
A couple of years ago Boeing/AA announced that AA would receive 22 new 787-8s which would be owned by Boeing Capital and leased to AA. Something interesting is that when the first of these 22 was delivered last month the O&D site shows that it was delivered to AA rather than to Boeing Capital. Previously, AA had 20 orders for the 787-8 (all delivered) and Boeing Capital had 22 orders but now, with the March Update, O&D is showing 21 orders for each.

Another wrinkle is that FlightGlobal reported that these 22 AA 787-8 leases would be taken over by BOC aviation. Maybe the way the deal is now re-structured is AA takes delivery instead of Boeing Capital and then immediately sell to BOC aviation for future leaseback.?

Have to use purchase and compensation credits somehow.
 
T4thH
Posts: 1055
Joined: Thu Jun 06, 2019 11:17 pm

Re: Airbus and Boeing 2020 Orders

Fri May 08, 2020 11:42 am

Flying-Tiger wrote:
FluidFlow wrote:
LJ wrote:

Thus they cancel 75 MAX citing "the most challenging period in the history of commercial aviation." and the disruption of COVID-19 but order 9 A32XNEO? It's a strange world.


As this is a leasing company, I guess someone didn't wanted the MAX anymore and Avolon cancelled on behalf of them, while someone else wanted more NEOs. Also, due to the MAX disaster, it is way easier to cancel MAX orders. So Avolon reduced their exposure while getting more "safe bets" on board.


Avolon stated that the 75 MAX cancelled had not been placed, thus it appears not to be directly airline related but rather financially motivated.

I guess the new Airbus orders were part of a rearrangement of the order book with them. Defer a number of planes by xyv years, but no delay charges to be paid, instead the order book increased. Probably means for both no cash-in/cash-out issues at the moment.

What do I expect, which jets/planes will be searched and which will not. So which will be the right planes in next years? So this is my expectation, you are allowed to have your own ones (as long it is not " we need more A380 re-engined jets...).

A220 (Jet Blue, Air Canada and Air baltic have already announced, they want to take the A220 even earlier than scheduled! Air France has confirmed, they will not defer the A220 order).
A320 Neo (swaps from the bigger A321 Neo back to the smaller A320).
A321 Long range versions (as replacement for wide bodies), so A321 LR and XLR (as new additional orders or as swap from prior A32X family orders).
- I have seen several deferral of A32X family orders (as example Jet Blue e.g.) but no change in orders of A321 long range jet orders.

Deferrals, swaps and cancellation of wide bodies, especially the bigger versions, like B77X, A350. We will see the B787, as these seems to be together with the A321 long range versions and the A220s, the best and now even brighter shining birds in this difficult phase.

Everything what is vulnerable for cancellation regarding prolonged delays, like the B737 MAX and the B77X will be cancelled, if even possible.

So I see really very bad times for the MAX and I fear also for the B77X. I see bad times for other wb, like the A330 Neo and the A350 and the only real winner will be the B787 (for wb's).
I do not see good times for Embraer and the Q400 family. ATR will be Ok (not good).

A320 family overall will be OK

Winner: A220, B787, A321 LR/Xlr.
Additional winners: conversions of passenger jets to freighters.
Conversions of: B737 NG, A321 (less than B737NG), B77W/L and less A330. Many jets in nice age will be get available for conversions.
Looser: new build freighter jets as too many jets in nice age for conversions will get available.
 
ShamrockBoi330
Posts: 353
Joined: Fri Sep 21, 2018 3:28 am

Re: Airbus and Boeing 2020 Orders

Tue May 12, 2020 3:15 pm

For April,

No orders

108 MAX cancellations (GECAS 69, China DevelopmentBank Financing 29, Unidentified 10)

Plus a further 99 accounting adjustments for questionable deliveries

https://www.seattletimes.com/business/b ... s-deepens/
 
Someone83
Posts: 4865
Joined: Sun Sep 17, 2006 5:47 pm

Re: Airbus and Boeing 2020 Orders

Tue May 12, 2020 3:27 pm

ShamrockBoi330 wrote:
For April,

No orders

108 MAX cancellations (GECAS 69, China DevelopmentBank Financing 29, Unidentified 10)

Plus a further 99 accounting adjustments for questionable deliveries

https://www.seattletimes.com/business/b ... s-deepens/


And 2 787s cancellations in the accounting adjustments for questionable deliveries
 
chiad
Posts: 1324
Joined: Tue May 16, 2006 4:24 pm

Re: Airbus and Boeing 2020 Orders

Tue May 12, 2020 6:38 pm

ShamrockBoi330 wrote:
For April,

No orders

108 MAX cancellations (GECAS 69, China DevelopmentBank Financing 29, Unidentified 10)

Plus a further 99 accounting adjustments for questionable deliveries

https://www.seattletimes.com/business/b ... s-deepens/


If Seattle Times are correct then the net orders volume between Airbus and Boeing is incredible unbalanced right now.
Airbus has +299 net orders vs -516 for Boeing.
If we include 2019 the the number would be Airbus: 1067 vs Boeing: -603
My calculator says that this is 1670 frames in favour for Airbus during the last 17 months.
:shock:
 
T4thH
Posts: 1055
Joined: Thu Jun 06, 2019 11:17 pm

Re: Airbus and Boeing 2020 Orders

Tue May 12, 2020 7:23 pm

chiad wrote:
ShamrockBoi330 wrote:
For April,

No orders

108 MAX cancellations (GECAS 69, China DevelopmentBank Financing 29, Unidentified 10)

Plus a further 99 accounting adjustments for questionable deliveries

https://www.seattletimes.com/business/b ... s-deepens/


If Seattle Times are correct then the net orders volume between Airbus and Boeing is incredible unbalanced right now.
Airbus has +299 net orders vs -516 for Boeing.
If we include 2019 the the number would be Airbus: 1067 vs Boeing: -603
My calculator says that this is 1670 frames in favour for Airbus during the last 17 months.
:shock:

Please remind, Boeing has a different form of accounting as they are following different rules by stock markets e.g.
In these numbers are already the accounting adjustments for questionable deliveries included.
It will need time, till these questionable and dead orders will disappear from Airbus order books. And of course, also Airbus has them...as recently Avianca (88 A320 Neo family member on order) or Interjet (35 on order) or Air Asia e.g.

The big difference will be: For Boeing, we will (and already) see many cancellations of B737 MAX orders, just because the airlines/lessors are able to cancel them regarding the prolonged delay of delivery (and it has to be feared, we will see the same soon for the B77X). Every airline has to take the opportunity to cancel or minimum defer the delivery of jets, if they can get out without penalty.. the MAX and B77X are easy targets. There will be many early slots available after end of the pandemic, they can order them later again, if needed. And additional we will see the deletion of orders as airlines/lessors will collapse/defunct.

Airbus will see much less cancellations but Airbus order books will be also hit hard, as airlines/lessors will collapse/defunct.

Pretty sure, at end of 2021, we will have seen a massacre in the order books of Airbus an Boeing.
 
User avatar
Momo1435
Posts: 1164
Joined: Sat Aug 25, 2012 2:33 pm

Re: Airbus and Boeing 2020 Orders

Tue May 12, 2020 8:30 pm

chiad wrote:
ShamrockBoi330 wrote:
For April,

No orders

108 MAX cancellations (GECAS 69, China DevelopmentBank Financing 29, Unidentified 10)

Plus a further 99 accounting adjustments for questionable deliveries

https://www.seattletimes.com/business/b ... s-deepens/


If Seattle Times are correct then the net orders volume between Airbus and Boeing is incredible unbalanced right now.
Airbus has +299 net orders vs -516 for Boeing.
If we include 2019 the the number would be Airbus: 1067 vs Boeing: -603
My calculator says that this is 1670 frames in favour for Airbus during the last 17 months.
:shock:

You made the easy and very predictable mistake with the ASC 606 Changes on Boeing's order book. You should not have counted them for 2019 if you also add them up with the 2020 so far total. These ASC 606 Changes are not reset at the end of the year, if you count them both for 2019 and 2020 you will count them double.

Boeing is 'only' at -462 since January 2019. Airbus is also only at +269 this year, so the actual difference is 1037 + 462 = 1499 in favor of Airbus.

But as T4thH already mentioned, there are different accounting rules and we don't know how many ASC 606 Changes Airbus would have if they were an American company. So it's not a completely fair comparison. And we have indeed seen nothing yet when it comes to cancellations, this is only the start of a huge market adjustment with many order adjustments for all manufacturers.
 
User avatar
scbriml
Posts: 19126
Joined: Wed Jul 02, 2003 10:37 pm

Re: Airbus and Boeing 2020 Orders

Tue May 12, 2020 9:11 pm

Momo1435 wrote:
Airbus is also only at +269 this year


Where do you get 269 from? Airbus O&D spreadsheet for April shows 365 gross orders and 66 cancellations, for a net total of 299.
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
There are 10 types of people in the World - those that understand binary and those that don't.
 
User avatar
Stitch
Posts: 27176
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2005 4:26 am

Re: Airbus and Boeing 2020 Orders

Tue May 12, 2020 9:19 pm

Momo1435 wrote:
But as T4thH already mentioned, there are different accounting rules and we don't know how many ASC 606 Changes Airbus would have if they were an American company.


The International Financial Reporting Standards has a similar accounting mechanism, known as IFRS-15, which Airbus follows.

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