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moo
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Re: Airbus and Boeing 2020 Orders

Thu Jul 09, 2020 12:30 am

DBCoop3r wrote:
scbriml wrote:
chiad wrote:
I find it amazing that there is still no cancellation rush for Airbus.
What am I missing?


I don’t think you’re missing anything. The vast majority of Boeing’s cancellations are MAX, which because of the circumstances, are easy to cancel.

Stitch wrote:
Less-flexible sales contracts so customers are likely deferring rather than outright cancelling if their finances allow.


I’d be surprised if there’s any significant difference between the OEMs contracts. The MAX situation is clearly the main contributor to the difference in cancellations between them so far this year.

Also have to consider how each firm keeps their books. Airbus is known to keep obviously cancelled orders on their log for years, A380 "orders" are a prime example. Boeing for the most part has to be more forthcoming in this manner mostly due to US accounting rules.

UA will never take the A350s on order and that's obvious to us, but if that were the case with a Boeing product, then BA would have to report the future non-revenue differently than Airbus just ignoring it until they have to deal with it.


The myths on this site just keep on living - this is the same nonsense that was being spouted a decade ago.
 
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Stitch
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Re: Airbus and Boeing 2020 Orders

Thu Jul 09, 2020 1:15 am

scbriml wrote:
I’d be surprised if there’s any significant difference between the OEMs contracts. The MAX situation is clearly the main contributor to the difference in cancellations between them so far this year.


Which is what I meant - airlines have flexibility to cancel MAX so they are doing so. They don't have (as much) flexibility to cancel anything else, so they are deferring. :)
 
klkla
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Re: Airbus and Boeing 2020 Orders

Thu Jul 09, 2020 3:59 am

moo wrote:
The myths on this site just keep on living - this is the same nonsense that was being spouted a decade ago.


In regards to United not taking the A350s I would agree with you. Up until a couple months ago, that is. I think the order, which has been deferred numerous times (but enlarged at the same time) is in danger now. Adding a new fleet type is not realistic for any time in the near future. Hopefully it will just be another deferral and not an outright cancellation.
 
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MrHMSH
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Re: Airbus and Boeing 2020 Orders

Thu Jul 09, 2020 4:47 am

DBCoop3r wrote:
scbriml wrote:
chiad wrote:
I find it amazing that there is still no cancellation rush for Airbus.
What am I missing?


I don’t think you’re missing anything. The vast majority of Boeing’s cancellations are MAX, which because of the circumstances, are easy to cancel.

Stitch wrote:
Less-flexible sales contracts so customers are likely deferring rather than outright cancelling if their finances allow.


I’d be surprised if there’s any significant difference between the OEMs contracts. The MAX situation is clearly the main contributor to the difference in cancellations between them so far this year.

Also have to consider how each firm keeps their books. Airbus is known to keep obviously cancelled orders on their log for years, A380 "orders" are a prime example. Boeing for the most part has to be more forthcoming in this manner mostly due to US accounting rules.

UA will never take the A350s on order and that's obvious to us, but if that were the case with a Boeing product, then BA would have to report the future non-revenue differently than Airbus just ignoring it until they have to deal with it.


Until UA actually cancel the orders (which they have had opportunities to do but have not done so far) the orders should be counted. It's not like it's a lessor with a speculative order. They may not take them, but they also might.
 
astuteman
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Re: Airbus and Boeing 2020 Orders

Thu Jul 09, 2020 4:51 am

DBCoop3r wrote:
scbriml wrote:
chiad wrote:
I find it amazing that there is still no cancellation rush for Airbus.
What am I missing?


I don’t think you’re missing anything. The vast majority of Boeing’s cancellations are MAX, which because of the circumstances, are easy to cancel.

Stitch wrote:
Less-flexible sales contracts so customers are likely deferring rather than outright cancelling if their finances allow.


I’d be surprised if there’s any significant difference between the OEMs contracts. The MAX situation is clearly the main contributor to the difference in cancellations between them so far this year.

Also have to consider how each firm keeps their books. Airbus is known to keep obviously cancelled orders on their log for years, A380 "orders" are a prime example. Boeing for the most part has to be more forthcoming in this manner mostly due to US accounting rules.

UA will never take the A350s on order and that's obvious to us, but if that were the case with a Boeing product, then BA would have to report the future non-revenue differently than Airbus just ignoring it until they have to deal with it.


This is just a complete red herring argument that should have been stopped years ago.

Airbus keep orders on their books whilst there is still a legal entity that has to be reconciled in some manner.
They don't do that for game play as you seem to want to think
THEY STILL HAVE A CONTRACT WITH UA !!!
That's just fact.
Until that gets reconciled one way or another it will stay there as a legal obligation

Boeing have always been the same with the more recent difference that they note orders that are never going to happen (like Jet MAX's) under an ASC 606 filing
But that's only in the last 2 years

Rgds
 
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scbriml
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Re: Airbus and Boeing 2020 Orders

Thu Jul 09, 2020 7:18 am

Stitch wrote:
scbriml wrote:
I’d be surprised if there’s any significant difference between the OEMs contracts. The MAX situation is clearly the main contributor to the difference in cancellations between them so far this year.


Which is what I meant - airlines have flexibility to cancel MAX so they are doing so. They don't have (as much) flexibility to cancel anything else, so they are deferring. :)


Ah, OK. I didn’t read it that way at first, but can see it now! :oops:

DBCoop3r wrote:
Boeing for the most part has to be more forthcoming in this manner mostly due to US accounting rules.


Airbus is subject to IFRS 15 accounting rules which have very similar requirements to ASC 606.

astuteman wrote:
Airbus keep orders on their books whilst there is still a legal entity that has to be reconciled in some manner.
They don't do that for game play as you seem to want to think
THEY STILL HAVE A CONTRACT WITH UA !!!
That's just fact.
Until that gets reconciled one way or another it will stay there as a legal obligation


United has had several opportunities to cancel their A350s, yet they’re still on the books at both Airbus and United.
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
There are 10 types of people in the World - those that understand binary and those that don't.
 
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enzo011
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Re: Airbus and Boeing 2020 Orders

Thu Jul 09, 2020 8:47 am

klkla wrote:
In regards to United not taking the A350s I would agree with you. Up until a couple months ago, that is. I think the order, which has been deferred numerous times (but enlarged at the same time) is in danger now. Adding a new fleet type is not realistic for any time in the near future. Hopefully it will just be another deferral and not an outright cancellation.


Good thing they are only scheduled to arrive in 2027 and not 2022 or 2023.
 
DCA350
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Re: Airbus and Boeing 2020 Orders

Thu Jul 09, 2020 10:57 am

DBCoop3r wrote:
scbriml wrote:
chiad wrote:
I find it amazing that there is still no cancellation rush for Airbus.
What am I missing?


I don’t think you’re missing anything. The vast majority of Boeing’s cancellations are MAX, which because of the circumstances, are easy to cancel.

Stitch wrote:
Less-flexible sales contracts so customers are likely deferring rather than outright cancelling if their finances allow.


I’d be surprised if there’s any significant difference between the OEMs contracts. The MAX situation is clearly the main contributor to the difference in cancellations between them so far this year.

Also have to consider how each firm keeps their books. Airbus is known to keep obviously cancelled orders on their log for years, A380 "orders" are a prime example. Boeing for the most part has to be more forthcoming in this manner mostly due to US accounting rules.

UA will never take the A350s on order and that's obvious to us, but if that were the case with a Boeing product, then BA would have to report the future non-revenue differently than Airbus just ignoring it until they have to deal with it.


Nobody knows. The 777s still have to be replaced and if UA wanted to cancel they easily could have swapped the order for the appropriate amount of A320/321 NEOs..
 
T4thH
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Re: Airbus and Boeing 2020 Orders

Thu Jul 09, 2020 9:22 pm

enzo011 wrote:
klkla wrote:
In regards to United not taking the A350s I would agree with you. Up until a couple months ago, that is. I think the order, which has been deferred numerous times (but enlarged at the same time) is in danger now. Adding a new fleet type is not realistic for any time in the near future. Hopefully it will just be another deferral and not an outright cancellation.


Good thing they are only scheduled to arrive in 2027 and not 2022 or 2023.

I have always asked myself, if UA is perhaps not willed to replace the B777 with a product of the next generation jet families, so the A350 XWB...... instead they are just waiting for the following generation of jets, the A350 Neo? EIS for the RR Ultrafan is now scheduled around 2027; Airbus has already hired staff in Spain and Toulouse for the NEO version of the A350 end of 2018. OK, the air industry god COVID-19 so are the cards new mixed? Who knows.

Something completely different; first half a year Boeing results will be interesting, they will be announced on 29-Jul-2020. And in few days we shall see the order and delivery for Jun-2020 for Boeing. will be interesting to see, how many Max are pending to be delivered (including these, already stated as unlikely to be delivered in the books). I expect to see many more cancellations and more jets unlikely to be delivered; the massacre in the order books will go on.
 
StTim
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Re: Airbus and Boeing 2020 Orders

Thu Jul 09, 2020 9:48 pm

T4thH wrote:
I have always asked myself, if UA is perhaps not willed to replace the B777 with a product of the next generation jet families, so the A350 XWB...... instead they are just waiting for the following generation of jets, the A350 Neo? EIS for the RR Ultrafan is now scheduled around 2027; Airbus has already hired staff in Spain and Toulouse for the NEO version of the A350 end of 2018. OK, the air industry god COVID-19 so are the cards new mixed? Who knows.

Something completely different; first half a year Boeing results will be interesting, they will be announced on 29-Jul-2020. And in few days we shall see the order and delivery for Jun-2020 for Boeing. will be interesting to see, how many Max are pending to be delivered (including these, already stated as unlikely to be delivered in the books). I expect to see many more cancellations and more jets unlikely to be delivered; the massacre in the order books will go on.


I do think that anyone who is talking about product time lines that we discussed in January and still believe these are likely to hold true are fooling themselves.

RR due to the lucrative (in past times) Power By The Hour contracts are bleeding red ink all over the accounts. They will throttle back on R&D to the minimum until things recover. Any previous time line I think you need to add as a minimum 2 to 3 years on any previous time line.

The same applies to ALL the big players, Boeing, Airbus, GE etc.
 
klkla
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Re: Airbus and Boeing 2020 Orders

Fri Jul 10, 2020 12:05 am

T4thH wrote:
I expect to see many more cancellations and more jets unlikely to be delivered; the massacre in the order books will go on.


You could be right but even if half the orders are canceled they will still have a backlog of a couple thousand 737's which will allow for years more production while the economy recovers and then they will add more orders from airlines that survive and need new airplanes.

The surviving airlines are not going to let Airbus become a monopoly. It's not in their best interest. They will do everything they can to make sure there's competition between Boeing and Airbus.
 
T4thH
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Re: Airbus and Boeing 2020 Orders

Fri Jul 10, 2020 4:27 am

klkla wrote:
T4thH wrote:
I expect to see many more cancellations and more jets unlikely to be delivered; the massacre in the order books will go on.


You could be right but even if half the orders are canceled they will still have a backlog of a couple thousand 737's which will allow for years more production while the economy recovers and then they will add more orders from airlines that survive and need new airplanes.

The surviving airlines are not going to let Airbus become a monopoly. It's not in their best interest. They will do everything they can to make sure there's competition between Boeing and Airbus.

Please note, the unfilled order-book was already end of May down to 4232 MAX.
http://active.boeing.com/commercial/orders/displaystandardreport.cfm?cboCurrentModel=737&optReportType=AllModels&cboAllModel=737&ViewReportF=View+Report
Of them, already 300 or so are build and parked in the desert.
Around 600 MAX have been already cancelled this year or are now listed as unlikely to be taken up in the order books. And we all shall not forget, the MAX is delayed now a little more than one year, so the airlines and lessors have just started to cancel the orders now; because of delay > 1 year they are able to easily cancel the contracts. Already >100 cancellations have been official announced by lessors and Norwegian in Jun, 27 by AVOLON for .Jul-2020; additional all the orders, which are now in trouble, as airlines are collapsing, it is likely, we will see already less than 4000 MAX in the order books in Jun-2020 (so latest next week). It is already expected, first MAX will start to fly in regular schedule for airlines earliest end of this year.

How the MAX order book will look like end of this year, if more and more airlines and lessors will take the opportunity to cancel MAX orders and many other will be stated as unlikely? Will it be down to 3000 and 300 already build, so 2700? How many of them will be deferred? How many B737, airlines and lessors will be willed to take up in next years/? And we shall not forget, 300 are parked.

Even if Boeing will now start with the development of a B737 follow up, this will be earliest produced in accountable numbers in 2030. And there are neither new engines in development and it will be also to early for new breakthrough technologies, these will come later. And Boeing has no money, to start now with the development of a new plane.

The B737 production line can produce up to 60 jets? Will Boeing earn any money, if they will only produce 20 or 30 B737 MAX per month or will they lose money with every produced jet? When airlines will start again to order B737? 2024 or 2025? How long Boeing will have to wait, till they will be able again, to produce a sustainable number of B737 per month, let us say, something around 40 per month? 2025?

They will do everything they can to make sure there's competition between Boeing and Airbus.

The next few year, the airlines and lessors will be only interested to survive.

By luck, Boeing has other parts like military e.g., where they can earn money, but for the next years, it seems , for the commercial part, they have only one according product and this is the B787. B777X is already to big for the market, especially in this times, B737 ..., B747 is dead

Boeing will have some "interesting" years.
 
astuteman
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Re: Airbus and Boeing 2020 Orders

Fri Jul 10, 2020 6:32 am

T4thH wrote:
klkla wrote:
T4thH wrote:
I expect to see many more cancellations and more jets unlikely to be delivered; the massacre in the order books will go on.


You could be right but even if half the orders are canceled they will still have a backlog of a couple thousand 737's which will allow for years more production while the economy recovers and then they will add more orders from airlines that survive and need new airplanes.

The surviving airlines are not going to let Airbus become a monopoly. It's not in their best interest. They will do everything they can to make sure there's competition between Boeing and Airbus.

Please note, the unfilled order-book was already end of May down to 4232 MAX.
http://active.boeing.com/commercial/orders/displaystandardreport.cfm?cboCurrentModel=737&optReportType=AllModels&cboAllModel=737&ViewReportF=View+Report
Of them, already 300 or so are build and parked in the desert.
Around 600 MAX have been already cancelled this year or are now listed as unlikely to be taken up in the order books. And we all shall not forget, the MAX is delayed now a little more than one year, so the airlines and lessors have just started to cancel the orders now; because of delay > 1 year they are able to easily cancel the contracts. Already >100 cancellations have been official announced by lessors and Norwegian in Jun, 27 by AVOLON for .Jul-2020; additional all the orders, which are now in trouble, as airlines are collapsing, it is likely, we will see already less than 4000 MAX in the order books in Jun-2020 (so latest next week). It is already expected, first MAX will start to fly in regular schedule for airlines earliest end of this year.

How the MAX order book will look like end of this year, if more and more airlines and lessors will take the opportunity to cancel MAX orders and many other will be stated as unlikely? Will it be down to 3000 and 300 already build, so 2700? How many of them will be deferred? How many B737, airlines and lessors will be willed to take up in next years/? And we shall not forget, 300 are parked.

Even if Boeing will now start with the development of a B737 follow up, this will be earliest produced in accountable numbers in 2030. And there are neither new engines in development and it will be also to early for new breakthrough technologies, these will come later. And Boeing has no money, to start now with the development of a new plane.

The B737 production line can produce up to 60 jets? Will Boeing earn any money, if they will only produce 20 or 30 B737 MAX per month or will they lose money with every produced jet? When airlines will start again to order B737? 2024 or 2025? How long Boeing will have to wait, till they will be able again, to produce a sustainable number of B737 per month, let us say, something around 40 per month? 2025?

They will do everything they can to make sure there's competition between Boeing and Airbus.

The next few year, the airlines and lessors will be only interested to survive.

By luck, Boeing has other parts like military e.g., where they can earn money, but for the next years, it seems , for the commercial part, they have only one according product and this is the B787. B777X is already to big for the market, especially in this times, B737 ..., B747 is dead

Boeing will have some "interesting" years.


Checking on the respective websites, the current narrowbody stats at end June (Airbus) and end May (Boeing) are:-

A32X NEO

Net orders - 7,445
Deliveries - 1,337
Backlog - 6,108

737 MAX

Net Orders - 4,589 (stripping out c. 51 NG's yet to deliver)
Deliveries - 357
Backlog - 4,232
ASC 606 adjustment - -507 (negative)
Adjusted backlog - 3,725

I don't know how many MAX'es were completed but not delivered.
But if it was c. 400, then there are 3, 325 MAX'es left to build

It should be pretty clear that the MAX is vulnerable to cancellations because it is so far out of its contractual terms and conditions for all operators.
The NEO doesn't share that vulnerability.

However, the ASC 606 figures for the MAX also include cancellations due to customer airlines failing (like Jet)
The NEO will be just as vulnerable to these as the MAX is, arguably more so as its order book and order base are larger.

How that ends up is in the lap of the Gods, and of which governments prepared to underpin struggling airlines.

Rgds
 
chiad
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Re: Airbus and Boeing 2020 Orders

Fri Jul 10, 2020 8:59 am

astuteman wrote:

I don't know how many MAX'es were completed but not delivered.
But if it was c. 400, then there are 3, 325 MAX'es left to build



Thanks astuteman
Next week it will be interesting to see how many MAX'es being cancelled in June.
 
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PepeTheFrog
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Re: Airbus and Boeing 2020 Orders

Fri Jul 10, 2020 9:31 am

Canceling MAX orders will become more difficult once the aircraft is re-certified and Boeing can restart deliveries. That means we might see many more cancellations between now and mid-September, unless customers opt for deferral.
Good moaning!
 
olle
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Re: Airbus and Boeing 2020 Orders

Fri Jul 10, 2020 9:54 am

PepeTheFrog wrote:
Canceling MAX orders will become more difficult once the aircraft is re-certified and Boeing can restart deliveries. That means we might see many more cancellations between now and mid-September, unless customers opt for deferral.



Is this not depending on how delayed the deliverance is? Boeing must by now be at least 12 month delayed. Then getting production started will not be a simple task.
 
tvh
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Re: Airbus and Boeing 2020 Orders

Fri Jul 10, 2020 9:58 am

PepeTheFrog wrote:
Canceling MAX orders will become more difficult once the aircraft is re-certified and Boeing can restart deliveries. That means we might see many more cancellations between now and mid-September, unless customers opt for deferral.

More difficult, yes. But it will be far from over. They cannot deliver all the late planes at once and there are still a lot of claims to be settled. It will take time to sort things out.
 
LJ
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Re: Airbus and Boeing 2020 Orders

Fri Jul 10, 2020 10:10 am

tvh wrote:
PepeTheFrog wrote:
Canceling MAX orders will become more difficult once the aircraft is re-certified and Boeing can restart deliveries. That means we might see many more cancellations between now and mid-September, unless customers opt for deferral.

More difficult, yes. But it will be far from over. They cannot deliver all the late planes at once and there are still a lot of claims to be settled. It will take time to sort things out.


Hence why Boeing doesn't mind that lease companies cancel their MAX order. Moreover, if you look at the press release from the BOC cancellation, one can see that leasing companies help Boeing (and Airbus) by financing their airline clients. It's a win-win situation for both airlines and leasing companies.
 
T4thH
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Re: Airbus and Boeing 2020 Orders

Fri Jul 10, 2020 10:57 am

chiad wrote:
astuteman wrote:

I don't know how many MAX'es were completed but not delivered.
But if it was c. 400, then there are 3, 325 MAX'es left to build



Thanks astuteman
Next week it will be interesting to see how many MAX'es being cancelled in June.

We can start to bet; 92x MAX by Norwegian (+5x B787) and 30x by BOC aviation, these are already the known cancellations for Jun-2020. AVOLON cancellation of 27x MAX shall be seen in Jul listings.
We can expect additional cancellations, not announced of around 30, so just let us estimate a number of 150 cancelled MAX in Jun-2020? Regarding ASC 606 adjustment and as the COVID crisis for airlines is getting worse and worse and more and more harming all airlines globally, additional 150 will be gone according ASC 606 adjustment? This second number is much more difficult to estimate; If we accept the number of 400 already build and parked, will we see already the 3000 MAX left to build or will we be already below of 3000? Next week will be interesting...

And Boeing has already highly "interesting" times, getting even more "interesting" day by day.
 
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Stitch
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Re: Airbus and Boeing 2020 Orders

Fri Jul 10, 2020 2:33 pm

T4thH wrote:
How the MAX order book will look like end of this year, if more and more airlines and lessors will take the opportunity to cancel MAX orders and many other will be stated as unlikely?


Even if the order book is gutted, eventually air travel is going to recover and airlines are going to need new planes and Boeing will be the only OEM with plenty of available delivery positions for their needs. So they'll be in an excellent position to secure the significant bulk of those orders because Airbus will not be able to offer delivery positions because of their larger backlog.

And before someone chimes in with "yeah, but will airlines risk the MAX?", the frame is being so heavily picked-over by so many regulatory agencies it may very well be the safer of the two options because all the "unknown unknowns" that normally do not raise their head until after years of services (or accidents) will already be "known" on the MAX and remediated.
Last edited by Stitch on Fri Jul 10, 2020 2:36 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
Ishrion
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Re: Airbus and Boeing 2020 Orders

Fri Jul 10, 2020 2:35 pm

Boeing should be releasing their June 2020 orders/deliveries log some time soon, right?
 
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Polot
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Re: Airbus and Boeing 2020 Orders

Fri Jul 10, 2020 2:53 pm

Ishrion wrote:
Boeing should be releasing their June 2020 orders/deliveries log some time soon, right?

On Tuesday. Boeing always releases on the 2nd Tuesday of the month.
 
chiad
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Re: Airbus and Boeing 2020 Orders

Fri Jul 10, 2020 3:43 pm

Stitch wrote:
T4thH wrote:
How the MAX order book will look like end of this year, if more and more airlines and lessors will take the opportunity to cancel MAX orders and many other will be stated as unlikely?


Even if the order book is gutted, eventually air travel is going to recover and airlines are going to need new planes and Boeing will be the only OEM with plenty of available delivery positions for their needs. So they'll be in an excellent position to secure the significant bulk of those orders because Airbus will not be able to offer delivery positions because of their larger backlog.

And before someone chimes in with "yeah, but will airlines risk the MAX?", the frame is being so heavily picked-over by so many regulatory agencies it may very well be the safer of the two options because all the "unknown unknowns" that normally do not raise their head until after years of services (or accidents) will already be "known" on the MAX and remediated.


I disagree!
I think recovery will happen at a moderate and different pace around the world.
Airbus will have plenty of available slots because of postponed deliveries and a up-and-running supply lines whenever recovery occurs.
Airbus will potentially be able to deliver 70+ NEOs long before Boeing could do the same with the MAX.
In addition the NEO name is not tainted like the MAX is.
IMO the MAX 40% vs NEO 60% balance is gone forever. I think the NEO will command 70% of the market until replacements are launched. Time will tell.
 
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Stitch
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Re: Airbus and Boeing 2020 Orders

Fri Jul 10, 2020 3:49 pm

chiad wrote:
IMO the MAX 40% vs NEO 60% balance is gone forever. I think the NEO will command 70% of the market until replacements are launched. Time will tell.


Then it's an incentive for Boeing to launch a 737RS with all the technology advances available and "leap-frog" the A320 as the A320 "leap-frogged" the 737 Classic. Airbus will eventually respond, just as Boeing did with the 737NG, but Boeing can build a solid future foundation to grow from just as Airbus did with the A320 and the two will eventually return to a 50-50 equilibrium.
 
fcogafa
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Re: Airbus and Boeing 2020 Orders

Fri Jul 10, 2020 4:07 pm

While Airbus is producing 30% less aircraft but with no notified cancellations, is it likely that there will be available slots as delivery time frame will be pushed back a couple of years?
 
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PepeTheFrog
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Re: Airbus and Boeing 2020 Orders

Fri Jul 10, 2020 4:48 pm

Stitch wrote:
chiad wrote:
IMO the MAX 40% vs NEO 60% balance is gone forever. I think the NEO will command 70% of the market until replacements are launched. Time will tell.


Then it's an incentive for Boeing to launch a 737RS with all the technology advances available and "leap-frog" the A320 as the A320 "leap-frogged" the 737 Classic. Airbus will eventually respond, just as Boeing did with the 737NG, but Boeing can build a solid future foundation to grow from just as Airbus did with the A320 and the two will eventually return to a 50-50 equilibrium.


It takes almost a decade to bring a new aircraft to the market, so I think @chiad has a valid point and the 2020s are a lost decade for Boeing's narrowbody strategy.
Good moaning!
 
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Momo1435
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Re: Airbus and Boeing 2020 Orders

Tue Jul 14, 2020 3:05 pm

Boeing June numbers are in.

http://www.boeing.com/commercial/#/orders-deliveries

Only 60 full cancellations for the 737 MAX, but 119 more 2020 ASC 606 Changes + 5 787 in the same category. So this means that the Norwegian cancellation is not a full cancellation yet.

1 new order, Fedex for 1 767-300F.

The 2020 ASC 606 Changes for the 777 was actually reduced by 1 without any real cancellation, so one of the shaky orders will still be delivered.
 
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Stitch
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Re: Airbus and Boeing 2020 Orders

Tue Jul 14, 2020 3:08 pm

Momo1435 wrote:
The 2020 ASC 606 Changes for the 777 was actually reduced by 1 without any real cancellation, so one of the shaky orders will still be delivered.


Or another future Volga-Dnepr NTU found a home.
 
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scbriml
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Re: Airbus and Boeing 2020 Orders

Tue Jul 14, 2020 3:14 pm

Boeing's June update is in. June figures shown below (2020 YTD in brackets):
http://www.boeing.com/commercial/#/orders-deliveries

737 -
Orders: 0 (18)
Changes: -60 (-373)
ASC 606: -119 (-439)
Total: -179 (-794)

747 -
Orders: 0 (1)
Changes: 0 (-2)
ASC 606: 0 (-3)
Total: 0 (-4)

767 -
Orders: 1 (9)
Changes: 0 (0)
ASC 606: 0 (0)
Total: 1 (9)

777 -
Orders: 0 (2)
Changes: 0 (-3)
ASC 606: +1 (-11)
Total: 0 (-12)

787 -
Orders: 0 (29)
Changes: 0 (-4)
ASC 606: -5 (-8)
Total: -5 (17)

Looking at the numbers, it seems Norwegian's "cancellations" have been added to the ASC 606 numbers.
Last edited by scbriml on Tue Jul 14, 2020 3:23 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Ishrion
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Re: Airbus and Boeing 2020 Orders

Tue Jul 14, 2020 3:14 pm

Damn... guess they didn't secure the 787/777X order.
 
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scbriml
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Re: Airbus and Boeing 2020 Orders

Tue Jul 14, 2020 3:18 pm

Ishrion wrote:
Damn... guess they didn't secure the 787/777X order.


Are you surprised? I would have expected them to announce it at the time via PR even if announced as UFO.
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
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StTim
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Re: Airbus and Boeing 2020 Orders

Tue Jul 14, 2020 3:30 pm

scbriml wrote:
Ishrion wrote:
Damn... guess they didn't secure the 787/777X order.


Are you surprised? I would have expected them to announce it at the time via PR even if announced as UFO.


I always felt it was brave making such a statement in current circumstances. Until the signature was on the order and the deposit in the bank I would have kept mum.
 
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Polot
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Re: Airbus and Boeing 2020 Orders

Tue Jul 14, 2020 3:38 pm

StTim wrote:
scbriml wrote:
Ishrion wrote:
Damn... guess they didn't secure the 787/777X order.


Are you surprised? I would have expected them to announce it at the time via PR even if announced as UFO.


I always felt it was brave making such a statement in current circumstances. Until the signature was on the order and the deposit in the bank I would have kept mum.

It was part of a court proceeding, it is not like Boeing was talking about it to the press. If Boeing kept mum they could have lost the lawsuit.
 
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Momo1435
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Re: Airbus and Boeing 2020 Orders

Tue Jul 14, 2020 4:04 pm

The full MAX cancellations for June

Mainly leasing companies. Romania's Blue Air was the only identified airline that cancelled it's full order.

Aviation Capital Group: -5
Avolon: -3
Blue Air: -6
BOC Aviation Limited: -22
CIT Aerospace LLC: -14
Unidentified: -10
 
Lewton
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Re: Airbus and Boeing 2020 Orders

Tue Jul 14, 2020 4:39 pm

To be fair to Boeing, the cancellations for the MAX are still not any great drama as % of the total order book.
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oschkosch
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Re: Airbus and Boeing 2020 Orders

Tue Jul 14, 2020 5:36 pm

Lewton wrote:
To be fair to Boeing, the cancellations for the MAX are still not any great drama as % of the total order book.



805 cancellations vs. 4300 total order book? Getting close to 20% is no big drama?
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LJ
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Re: Airbus and Boeing 2020 Orders

Tue Jul 14, 2020 5:43 pm

Momo1435 wrote:
The full MAX cancellations for June

Mainly leasing companies. Romania's Blue Air was the only identified airline that cancelled it's full order.

Aviation Capital Group: -5
Avolon: -3
Blue Air: -6
BOC Aviation Limited: -22
CIT Aerospace LLC: -14
Unidentified: -10


Thus 3 of the 27 are listed as cancelled in June whilst the remainder are ASC 606? If one assumes that the complete cancellation from Norwegian is in the ASC 606, that means 27 are accounted for. BOC Aviation is listed as cancelling 22 whilst they've cancelled 30 thus probably 8 in ASC 606. This makes 18 unaccounted for in ASC 606, which cannot be the remainder of the Avolon cancellation.
 
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Momo1435
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Re: Airbus and Boeing 2020 Orders

Tue Jul 14, 2020 5:54 pm

LJ wrote:
Thus 3 of the 27 are listed as cancelled in June whilst the remainder are ASC 606? If one assumes that the complete cancellation from Norwegian is in the ASC 606, that means 27 are accounted for. BOC Aviation is listed as cancelling 22 whilst they've cancelled 30 thus probably 8 in ASC 606. This makes 18 unaccounted for in ASC 606, which cannot be the remainder of the Avolon cancellation.

To make it even more complicated, all or several of the 60 full cancellations could have been listed as the ASC 606 changes before. So the total of the new ASC 606 for June could actually be higher then the 119 count. It's pretty much impossible to keep track on these ASC 606 changes.
 
UA444
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Re: Airbus and Boeing 2020 Orders

Tue Jul 14, 2020 5:56 pm

DBCoop3r wrote:
scbriml wrote:
chiad wrote:
I find it amazing that there is still no cancellation rush for Airbus.
What am I missing?


I don’t think you’re missing anything. The vast majority of Boeing’s cancellations are MAX, which because of the circumstances, are easy to cancel.

Stitch wrote:
Less-flexible sales contracts so customers are likely deferring rather than outright cancelling if their finances allow.


I’d be surprised if there’s any significant difference between the OEMs contracts. The MAX situation is clearly the main contributor to the difference in cancellations between them so far this year.

Also have to consider how each firm keeps their books. Airbus is known to keep obviously cancelled orders on their log for years, A380 "orders" are a prime example. Boeing for the most part has to be more forthcoming in this manner mostly due to US accounting rules.

UA will never take the A350s on order and that's obvious to us, but if that were the case with a Boeing product, then BA would have to report the future non-revenue differently than Airbus just ignoring it until they have to deal with it.

They’ve increased the A350 order several times. They’re taking them
 
T4thH
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Re: Airbus and Boeing 2020 Orders

Tue Jul 14, 2020 7:57 pm

Lewton wrote:
To be fair to Boeing, the cancellations for the MAX are still not any great drama as % of the total order book.

Let us calculate a little bit....
31-May-2020: Total number of orders: 4232 MAX. Since end of 2018, in the last year 2019 and this year 2020, they have already had losses. So end of 2018, the number was at 5005.
already produced and delivered: - 387-> 3845
produced, but not delivered: around - 400->3445
cancelled MAX in Jun: - 60 -> 3385
ASC 606: in total till 31-May : - 507-> 2878
ASC 606 fur Jun: -119 -> 2759

So, there are now 2759 MAX to be produced, but there is a problem with the ASC 606 adjustment. OK, we do not know, how many of the already produced but still not delivered MAX are part of the cancellation or of the ASC 606.
Additional no one can now say, how many of the former stated ASC 606 have been now shifted to the "cancelled" status. So let us make a correction, now are 2900 left to be produced.

The MAX order book has lost 100 MAX in May, now it had lost 180 jets in Jun. It is likely, the MAX order book will shrink further till end of this year by cancellations and ASC 606 adjustments. we can only bet, but let us calculate with 110 per month?
2900 - 6x110= 2240 left.
The next years will not be good; I expect further cancellations and ASC 606 adjustments to be done, as also swaps from MAX to the B787, but also few orders by companies like Ryanair e.g. But pretty sure, these will come with a big discount/best price, so Boeing will not earn much money/MAX.


But let us now calculate with the 2240; prior the MAX disaster, Boeing has planned to produce 57 MAX/month, so there would be an backlog for 39 month left. Of course, this was prior COVID 19....and the MAX disaster.
Many of these orders have had delivery dates post 2025, airlines are now trying to postpone deliveries to years post 2023 to 2025.


How many MAX Boeing will be able to produce in next years till let us say 2023 to 2024? 15 per month? 20 per month? or 25? How many per month airlines will be willed to take up, till the global aviation industry will reach the prior COVID-19 numbers?
What will be the minimum number per month, that suppliers like Spirit, will be able to survive and will not collapse?
How much will be the production costs /MAX go up, as Boeing looses the benefit of high production numbers?

I know, who I do not want to be now at Boeing, the responsible MAX sales manager. This person can only lose.
 
LJ
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Re: Airbus and Boeing 2020 Orders

Tue Jul 14, 2020 9:04 pm

T4thH wrote:
Lewton wrote:
To be fair to Boeing, the cancellations for the MAX are still not any great drama as % of the total order book.

Let us calculate a little bit....
31-May-2020: Total number of orders: 4232 MAX. Since end of 2018, in the last year 2019 and this year 2020, they have already had losses. So end of 2018, the number was at 5005.
already produced and delivered: - 387-> 3845
produced, but not delivered: around - 400->3445
cancelled MAX in Jun: - 60 -> 3385
ASC 606: in total till 31-May : - 507-> 2878
ASC 606 fur Jun: -119 -> 2759
.


This is not correct. Boeing lists 4559 orders as of June30th (according to their excel spreadsheet). Thus if 387 are delivered and ASC 606 of -439 they have 3773 to be delivered of which around 400 are built but not yet delivered and thus around 3373 to be built.
 
T4thH
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Re: Airbus and Boeing 2020 Orders

Tue Jul 14, 2020 9:25 pm

LJ wrote:
T4thH wrote:
Lewton wrote:
To be fair to Boeing, the cancellations for the MAX are still not any great drama as % of the total order book.

Let us calculate a little bit....
31-May-2020: Total number of orders: 4232 MAX. Since end of 2018, in the last year 2019 and this year 2020, they have already had losses. So end of 2018, the number was at 5005.
already produced and delivered: - 387-> 3845
produced, but not delivered: around - 400->3445
cancelled MAX in Jun: - 60 -> 3385
ASC 606: in total till 31-May : - 507-> 2878
ASC 606 fur Jun: -119 -> 2759
.


This is not correct. Boeing lists 4559 orders as of June30th (according to their excel spreadsheet). Thus if 387 are delivered and ASC 606 of -439 they have 3773 to be delivered of which around 400 are built but not yet delivered and thus around 3373 to be built.


Do you have the Excel spreadsheet link? The Boeing order and delivery page does not work accordingly on my coputer, so this one.
https://www.boeing.com/commercial/#/orders-deliveries
The custom report does not work.

I have now found this one:
http://active.boeing.com/commercial/orders/displaystandardreport.cfm?cboCurrentModel=737&optReportType=AllModels&cboAllModel=737&ViewReportF=View+Report
But there are no ASC 606 statements.
I hate, to have to work with half of the information.
If the ASC 606 numbers of -439 are correct, they shall have been reduced, in May according some these (total ASC 606 adjustments) have been 507.
So are these -439 only the ASC adjustments from year 2020? So the ASC 606 adjustments from 2019 have to be added?
To follow ASC 606 adjustments is pure horror.
 
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scbriml
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Re: Airbus and Boeing 2020 Orders

Tue Jul 14, 2020 11:01 pm

T4thH wrote:
If the ASC 606 numbers of -439 are correct, they shall have been reduced, in May according some these (total ASC 606 adjustments) have been 507.
So are these -439 only the ASC adjustments from year 2020? So the ASC 606 adjustments from 2019 have to be added?
To follow ASC 606 adjustments is pure horror.


The -439 ASC 606 number is for this year to end June (as shown on the page linked below). The total MAX ASC 606 number reported by Boeing is -626 which includes those rolled over from 2019 (as shown in the table below).

http://www.boeing.com/commercial/#/orders-deliveries
Revenue Recognition Accounting Standard ASC 606 Information
During the first quarter of 2018, Boeing adopted a new revenue recognition accounting standard (ASC 606) which, among other things, imposes additional criteria for recognizing contracted backlog with customers beyond the existence of a firm contract to deliver. Apart from adding the table below and modifying the "ASC 606 Changes" line in the Net Orders table, this site has not been adjusted for the adoption of ASC 606, and reflects all orders for which we have a firm contractual commitment. As such, aircraft identified for a specific customer on this site may not necessarily contribute to the totals for backlog and/or other amounts included in our financial statements. The figures in the table for Total Unfilled Orders, ASC 606 Adjustment and Backlog include the orders, listed on this site, of Boeing Capital Corporation.


Here's the 737 table from that page, which shows the accurate numbers, whereas other Boeing reports do not necessarily reflect reality (as Boeing themselves say above). The ASC 606 number shown in this table is the total, so includes rolled-over from last year:
Image

Now, the 737 backlog includes 49 undelivered NG frames (mainly military variants and a couple of BBJs), so total undelivered MAX at end of June was 3,546 (which includes all those frames built but not delivered during the grounding - I guess over 400 now).

So between hard cancellations and ASC 606 adjustments, Boeing has lost 812 MAX orders from the backlog this year so far.
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Stitch
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Re: Airbus and Boeing 2020 Orders

Tue Jul 14, 2020 11:49 pm

Should we maybe move all this discussion about MAX cancellations and backlogs to the General MAX discussion thread?
 
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scbriml
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Re: Airbus and Boeing 2020 Orders

Wed Jul 15, 2020 7:07 am

Stitch wrote:
Should we maybe move all this discussion about MAX cancellations and backlogs to the General MAX discussion thread?


You don't consider MAX cancellations to be on-topic?
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Stitch
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Re: Airbus and Boeing 2020 Orders

Wed Jul 15, 2020 6:27 pm

scbriml wrote:
You don't consider MAX cancellations to be on-topic?


Reporting actual cancellations from the airline or Boeing? Yes, on topic.

Discussion about the total number of cancellations and who might be next and what the actual MAX order book is and such? No, not on topic.

We started with the former and quickly drifted to the latter.
 
fcogafa
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Re: Airbus and Boeing 2020 Orders

Mon Jul 27, 2020 1:54 pm

It would be interesting to know Leehams take on this 'Applying ASC 606 to the Airbus Order Book' article if anyone has access

https://leehamnews.com/2020/07/27/apply ... more-34014
 
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Stitch
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Re: Airbus and Boeing 2020 Orders

Mon Jul 27, 2020 6:25 pm

fcogafa wrote:
It would be interesting to know Leehams take on this 'Applying ASC 606 to the Airbus Order Book' article if anyone has access...


European companies - including Airbus - have something similar under IFRS 15.
 
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Polot
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Re: Airbus and Boeing 2020 Orders

Mon Jul 27, 2020 6:44 pm

Stitch wrote:
fcogafa wrote:
It would be interesting to know Leehams take on this 'Applying ASC 606 to the Airbus Order Book' article if anyone has access...


European companies - including Airbus - have something similar under IFRS 15.

They don’t necessarily have to break out which orders in their backlog pass that accounting (and thus contribute to their financial statements) and are not just firm contractual commitments (which may not pass IFRS 15 muster) though.

To be fair it’s not clear if Boeing is required to break the orders out under ASC 606 either, or if they choose to do so on their own to be on the safe side. They only do so by pulling out number of ASC 606 orders for each model, they don’t specify which orders (although we can often make educated guesses) and Boeing has a disclaimer stating that aircraft orders identified to individual customers on their website may not actually contribute to net backlog or financial statements.

There is a lot of grey area when it comes to aircraft backlogs and what the OEMs have to report and when exactly.
 
Flying-Tiger
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Re: Airbus and Boeing 2020 Orders

Fri Jul 31, 2020 10:27 am

Not new builds, but nonetheless an order:

SEATTLE, July 23, 2020 — Responding to strong near and long-term express cargo demand, Aircraft Finance Germany (AFG) signed an agreement with Boeing [NYSE: BA] for two 737-800 Boeing Converted Freighters (BCF).

Based on the popular Boeing Next-Generation 737, the 737-800BCF offers operators newer technology, lower fuel consumption and better reliability than other standard-body freighters. Primarily used to carry express cargo on domestic or short haul routes, the airplane is capable of carrying up to 23.9 tons (52,800lbs) and flying up to 2,000 nautical miles (3,750 km).

“We are always looking for the best way to invest and deploy aircraft that support our customers,” said Peter Koster, AFG’s Head of Freighter Trading. “The 737-800BCF gives us the opportunity to serve a growing market with a workhorse that can reliably and efficiently fit into most operators’ fleets.”

First delivered in 2018, the 737-800BCF is now operated by 10 customers across four continents. Boeing has ramped up production in response to increased demand with 132 orders. To date, the company has delivered 34 737-800BCFs.


https://boeing.mediaroom.com/Boeing-Secures-Aircraft-Finance-Germany-Order-for-Two-737-800-Boeing-Converted-Freighters
Flown: A319/320/321,A332/3,A343/346, A359, A380,AT4,AT7,B712, B732/3/4/5/7/8/9,B742/4,B752/3, B762/763,B772/77W,CR2/7/9/K,ER3/4,E70/75/90/95, F50/70/100,M11,L15,SF3,S20, AR8/1, 142/143,... 330.860 miles and counting.

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