Welcome to the JetBlue Network Thread 2020. Please continue to add your comments below

Link to last thread

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1411957

My predictions for this year (announcements, not necessarily start in 2020).

From JFK - I'm assuming here JFK slot constraints stay in place and they are unable to get more good slots from anyone.
GUA/UIO/SAL - Looks like GUA is a done deal already. SAL I think will get announced also. UIO is a little iffy. Not sure if high altitude will allow this to happen. If they add these, then their Latin America VFR network out of JFK is complete.
BNA - I'm going to predict again that JFK-BNA will get added this year with 2 flights.
EYW - Another route enabled by A220. Probably a couple of flights a week in winter time.
BZN - Another route I think will be enabled by A220. Once a week in winter time.
Possible cuts to fund this and the European flights
PWM
SAV
RNO
HAV - why is this still daily? Should be made 1x per week on Saturday.
More frequencies on these routes.
SFO - this I think will get a 7th mint flight to be competitive with DL.
ATL - I think a 3rd flight

From EWR - again, depend on if FAA will allow for flights to be added in peak days.
ACK - Obvious add here for summer time.
KIN - one flight here year round
FLL/MCO - more flights to balance out the reductions at LGA

HPN-MVY - another obvious add here for summer time if HPN-ACK did well.

From FLL, adding
SEA/GUA/SAL/IND/CMH - Lucky to see 3 of these get added. SEA with mint, probably one of IND/CMH if either city gets added. Probably one of GUA/SAL (more likely GUA).
More frequencies on
LAX (5th flight), ORD, ATL, MSY, CHS, CLE, AUS
Upgauging on
RDU, RIC, BDL and DCA
No major cuts.
I'm operating under the assumption that BOS remains the primary growth center so growth at FLL is still subpar. Keep in mind, FLL has been more or less stagnant this past year due to Cuba/MEX cuts and BOS expansion.

From MCO, adding
SFO for 2021.
No other major changes outside of more upgauging to northeast market. I expect more A321s to DCA.

From SJU, no new routes. More frequencies + upgauging on existing routes.

From LA Basin, possible shift off LGB-JFK/BOS flights to SNA once A220 is available in sufficient quantities. Not sure if that's 2021 or 2022.
LGB survives another year while B6 waits for more gates at LAX.

And now for the large changes at BOS. Expect them to get close to 200 flights sometimes in 2020 and reach that in March 2021 at latest. Once they get there, announcement for BOS250 when they announce the schedule/destination of London flight along with the 4 new gates + access to E gates. They should reach close to 40% domestic market share by end of 2020.
New routes:
IND/CMH/STL/SDF/MEM - I expect one to two of these to be announced
BZN - Saturday service here in winter time
EYW - Saturday service here also in winter time with A220-300
PTP - Saturday service here in winter time
Cuts:
PSP - Can't see how this lasts much longer
Longer season for seasonals:
PDX - this goes year round with arrival of A220
SMF, OAK
More frequencies
EWR, PHL, ORD - I know they are already adding frequencies here for 2020, but more will be announced for 2021. I expect schedule to get closer to AA/UA on these routes. Shuttle like service to LGA, EWR, PHL, ORD and DCA.
LGA - big guess here, they get a couple of slots as part of divestiture from DL/WS JV and add those to fill up gaps on this shuttle to match AA schedule.
IAH, DFW - add 1 or 2 to both of these routes.
Aircraft changes
- more A321s for BOS-Florida/SJU/island markets
- all SFO flights become mint
- first A220 station will be AUS and BWI. This will be followed by PDX, MSY, ATL, MSP, BNA, IAH and DFW

More changes I hope to see.
- more mint flights that are of 16J variety. Maybe the mint 2.0 config can be used for JFK-LAX/SFO market.
- Shifting all the A321CEO to shorter flights like Northeast to Florida. Have longer flights operated by A321NEO to utilize the efficiency at longer range + having pantry in use.

tphuang wrote:

And now for the large changes at BOS. Expect them to get close to 200 flights sometimes in 2020 and reach that in March 2021 at latest. Once they get there, announcement for BOS250 when they announce the schedule/destination of London flight along with the 4 new gates + access to E gates. They should reach close to 40% domestic market share by end of 2020.
New routes:
IND/CMH/STL/SDF/MEM - I expect one to two of these to be announced

B6 adding BOS-CVG is also a possibility since
(a) CVG is the only DL hub or focus city airport that B6 doesn't currently serve nonstop from CVG,
(b) CVG is one of the top destinations out of BOS that isn't currently served by B6,
and
(c) BOS-CVG is one of the top routes out of BOS that doesn't currently have nonstop competition (even though AA, UA, and WN all already offer 1-stop connecting service to CVG from BOS through at least one East Coast hub).

If B6 does enter the CVG market, B6 adding CVG-JFK nonstop service might be a possibility with F9 no longer serving LGA nonstop from CVG and with AA making some cuts at JFK. B6 adding CVG-FLL nonstop service is also a possibility if B6 adds service to CVG with B6 already serving FLL nonstop from ORD and CLE in the Midwest.

B6 adding BOS-ORF nonstop service is also a possibility with BOS-ORF being one of the top domestic routes out of BOS that isn't currently served by B6.

Does anyone know how many gates B6 will have once they move to the new Mid Field Concourse at LAX?

Would their upcoming A220s have any particular impact?

tphuang wrote:

My predictions for this year (announcements, not necessarily start in 2020).

From JFK - I'm assuming here JFK slot constraints stay in place and they are unable to get more good slots from anyone.
GUA/UIO/SAL - Looks like GUA is a done deal already. SAL I think will get announced also. UIO is a little iffy. Not sure if high altitude will allow this to happen. If they add these, then their Latin America VFR network out of JFK is complete.
BNA - I'm going to predict again that JFK-BNA will get added this year with 2 flights.
EYW - Another route enabled by A220. Probably a couple of flights a week in winter time.
BZN - Another route I think will be enabled by A220. Once a week in winter time.
Possible cuts to fund this and the European flights
PWM
SAV
RNO
HAV - why is this still daily? Should be made 1x per week on Saturday.
More frequencies on these routes.
SFO - this I think will get a 7th mint flight to be competitive with DL.
ATL - I think a 3rd flight

From EWR - again, depend on if FAA will allow for flights to be added in peak days.
ACK - Obvious add here for summer time.
KIN - one flight here year round
FLL/MCO - more flights to balance out the reductions at LGA

HPN-MVY - another obvious add here for summer time if HPN-ACK did well.

From FLL, adding
SEA/GUA/SAL/IND/CMH - Lucky to see 3 of these get added. SEA with mint, probably one of IND/CMH if either city gets added. Probably one of GUA/SAL (more likely GUA).
More frequencies on
LAX (5th flight), ORD, ATL, MSY, CHS, CLE, AUS
Upgauging on
RDU, RIC, BDL and DCA
No major cuts.
I'm operating under the assumption that BOS remains the primary growth center so growth at FLL is still subpar. Keep in mind, FLL has been more or less stagnant this past year due to Cuba/MEX cuts and BOS expansion.

From MCO, adding
SFO for 2021.
No other major changes outside of more upgauging to northeast market. I expect more A321s to DCA.

From SJU, no new routes. More frequencies + upgauging on existing routes.

From LA Basin, possible shift off LGB-JFK/BOS flights to SNA once A220 is available in sufficient quantities. Not sure if that's 2021 or 2022.
LGB survives another year while B6 waits for more gates at LAX.

And now for the large changes at BOS. Expect them to get close to 200 flights sometimes in 2020 and reach that in March 2021 at latest. Once they get there, announcement for BOS250 when they announce the schedule/destination of London flight along with the 4 new gates + access to E gates. They should reach close to 40% domestic market share by end of 2020.
New routes:
IND/CMH/STL/SDF/MEM - I expect one to two of these to be announced
BZN - Saturday service here in winter time
EYW - Saturday service here also in winter time with A220-300
PTP - Saturday service here in winter time
Cuts:
PSP - Can't see how this lasts much longer
Longer season for seasonals:
PDX - this goes year round with arrival of A220
SMF, OAK
More frequencies
EWR, PHL, ORD - I know they are already adding frequencies here for 2020, but more will be announced for 2021. I expect schedule to get closer to AA/UA on these routes. Shuttle like service to LGA, EWR, PHL, ORD and DCA.
LGA - big guess here, they get a couple of slots as part of divestiture from DL/WS JV and add those to fill up gaps on this shuttle to match AA schedule.
IAH, DFW - add 1 or 2 to both of these routes.
Aircraft changes
- more A321s for BOS-Florida/SJU/island markets
- all SFO flights become mint
- first A220 station will be AUS and BWI. This will be followed by PDX, MSY, ATL, MSP, BNA, IAH and DFW

More changes I hope to see.
- more mint flights that are of 16J variety. Maybe the mint 2.0 config can be used for JFK-LAX/SFO market.
- Shifting all the A321CEO to shorter flights like Northeast to Florida. Have longer flights operated by A321NEO to utilize the efficiency at longer range + having pantry in use.

Great predictions. Keep in mind the A220 won’t really ramp up until 2021-2022. B6 is only taking one in 2020.

Really confused about LGA-FLL/MCO going 2x daily in favor of BOS-LGA. Is a half empty E190 to BOS really more profitable than a full A321 to Florida?

juan885 wrote:

Really confused about LGA-FLL/MCO going 2x daily in favor of BOS-LGA. Is a half empty E190 to BOS really more profitable than a full A321 to Florida?

Sometimes it's not quite all about profitability, that even applies to DL and others. In this case B6 is trying to defend it's turf in BOS, it is trying to be as relevant as possible to the NYC market, by covering all 3 major airports and getting as much service into LGA that they can. They have a finite amount of aircraft, particularly on the E190 side, so it had to come from somewhere to do that. hence the cut of FLL/MCO to compensate. Is it the right move, only time will tell and the finance folks will gauge that. Maybe it will switch back at somepoint if it doesn't work, but for now, this one has probably taken the path of need for the airline over absolute profitability. In reality if they can make more money from the revamped 320's (12 extra seats per flight) and more of the all-core 321's (200 seats) plus the other revenue generators, it might allow them a bit of latitude to do things like this without Wall St. getting upset.

Yes, those A220 predictions are more about what they will announce in 2020 rather than what they will start to operate. Even so, I'm probably overly optimistic about what they can operate by summer of 2021.

As for LGA, the thought process is that 6x daily BOS-LGA is a huge money loser due to the weak schedule vs DL/AA. 10x daily will allow them to capture more higher yielding last minute bookings and also help them with corporate contract and FF. The gains from that outweighs the losses from Florida flights. I'm not a fan of going with 2x on FLL/MCO/PBI. I think having 4x FLL is probably necessary and then they just have to live with operating MCO strictly out of JFK/EWR. Those leisure routes of LGA-MCO/PBI aren't as dependent on schedule like LGA-BOS. If they get more slots at LGA, I'd prefer to see them operate more business routes to DCA or ORD rather than more Florida routes. They have basically the most convenient space for business travelers at LGA. It's not a great terminal for A321/Florida flights due to lack of seating and public transportation.

JFK is probably just as convenient for people going to Florida via the airtrain.

I wonder if B6 might add PVD-RSW & TPA as way to capitalize on their strength in the greater BOS region, similar to them adding PVD-PBI last year.

Given the recent Iran news and possible higher (maybe much higher) fuel prices over the next few months, I started to take a look at which airlines would be most affected by higher fuel prices. I took at the most recent earnings report and divided CASMex by CASM, to see which airlines have the highest portion of CASM as fuel cost. The higher the portion that's fuel cost, the more a 25% jump in fuel prices would hurt the CASM for that airline. I didn't look at WN since they fuel hedge aggressively and actually benefit from rising fuel prices.

here is the results:
NK - 5.66 vs 8.03 -> 70.5%
B6 - 8.33 vs 11.29 -> 73.8%
AA - 11.07 vs 14.33 -> 77.2%
DL - 9.84 vs 13.85 -> 71.0%
UA - 9.8 vs 13.2 -> 74.2%
AS - 8.43 vs 11.23 -> 75.1%

Not a surprise here that NK has the largest portion of its CASM as non-fuel and AA has the highest. AA relly has a lot to work on in terms of cost control. So in the even of a fuel crisis, NK should suffer the most and AA should suffer the least. My guess is that other ULCCs would have the similar ratio of fuel cost as NK. The surprising part is how much of DL's cost are from fuel cost. I guess that's due to operating a lot of older aircraft. B6 is right in the middle of the park there, although UA has the advantage of having a fuel hedge in IAH. Adding extra A321NEO and reconfiguring A320s to have 12 more seat will probably improve B6's fuel efficiency a little bit, but I'd expect their ratio to not change too much.

So what does this mean for them? Well in FLL/MCO, they could face a more stubborn WN, but a less aggressive NK/F9. In BOS, things might ease up a little bit given that DL's large regional operation would probably get affected by higher fuel prices more than new mainline aircraft. In JFK where DL has a much larger mainline operation, things will more or less be the same.

nine4nine wrote:

Does anyone know how many gates B6 will have once they move to the new Mid Field Concourse at LAX?

Latest update sound like 3 with the first rights use up to 5 total if needed.
With European dreams on and minds of B6 management LAX will probably stay it's course of Just feeding its core marketshare JFK,BOS and FLL.

LGB will also stay it's course Just making just enough money to keep it alive.
SNA service with the A220 is at least over 1 to 2 years away.
New entrants to SNA only receive 2 Slots.
I'm gonna guess they would probably just run two 21:00 redeye departures to BOS and JFK.
They could easily just drop the Red eyes from LGB freeing up the gate space in BOS and JFK for a more lucrative SNA service.

Flyguy

Alright, Q3 data is out. From the numbers I've seen so far, JFK seemed to have a decent quarter and BOS did well in some markets also. FLL was really bad on the routes i looked at. Anyways, here at the mint routes.

First of all, the all important NYC-LAX market
CityPair Dist Carrier Board AvgFare NSFare ConnFare % NS PerFlight Departures LF Yield PRASM
JFKLAX 2475 AA 171651 623.09 634.53 349.01 95.99% 102.0 1852 90.83% 576.37 0.2329
JFKLAX 2475 AS 139463 259.50 258.98 338.59 99.35% 175.5 902 88.12% 228.21 0.0922
JFKLAX 2475 B6 272902 353.73 353.81 321.67 99.76% 159.0 1895 90.57% 320.46 0.1295
JFKLAX 2475 DL 332729 416.60 414.82 504.26 98.01% 223.8 1620 91.76% 380.65 0.1538
EWRLAX 2454 AS 84656 266.29 265.50 384.57 99.34% 175.3 536 90.11% 239.25 0.0975
EWRLAX 2454 UA 386176 350.84 348.37 541.54 98.72% 202.9 2050 92.82% 323.37 0.1318

I see this as a pretty good quarter for B6 actually (or at least better than last quarter). They've reduced the far gap with both AA/DL. In fact, they had higher fare than UA this quarter (first in a long time) and only had slightly lower yield due to LF. This is despite adding that 11th flight at really terrible hours. You will see that they had more flight than AA this quarter. This might be the first time that has happened. It seems to me AA is slowly losing out here despite arguably the best product and stronger LAX hub. I do wish to see how well they'd do if they can add the 11th flight at a better time.

Next the NYC-SFO market.
JFKSFO 2586 AA 72187 587.96 593.08 473.19 95.73% 102.0 816 86.73% 514.38 0.1989
JFKSFO 2586 AS 114546 251.29 250.34 312.95 98.49% 177.5 721 89.50% 224.05 0.0866
JFKSFO 2586 B6 149699 349.44 349.21 438.90 99.74% 159.0 1063 88.57% 309.29 0.1196
JFKSFO 2586 DL 190660 397.47 393.43 570.56 97.72% 169.5 1242 90.57% 356.33 0.1378
EWRSFO 2565 AS 83360 247.72 246.47 352.74 98.82% 174.4 539 88.66% 218.52 0.0852
EWRSFO 2565 UA 507869 384.39 378.25 604.38 97.28% 219.3 2536 91.34% 345.48 0.1347
This seems to another case of both B6/DL gaining a little bit at AA's expense. Interesting how the average fare here for B6 is almost as high as JFK-LAX. This indicates having a 7th flight is easily doable. Also, that's a much smaller gap vs UA in average fare than previous quarters. The gap between B6/DL is consistent.

So at least in the 2 largest premium market, it would seem like AA has been declining in both and DL initially in 2016 to early 2018 had been gaining in both markets vs B6 and others. In the past year, it seems like B6 has also picked up some of that AA declines, which allowed them to close the yield gap with AA's very high cost A321T and even with UA over at EWR.

BOSSFO 2704 AS 46638 283.21 281.17 355.84 97.28% 158.0 352 83.85% 235.75 0.0872 70.68%
BOSSFO 2704 B6 126670 369.35 369.14 425.71 99.63% 158.4 885 90.36% 333.57 0.1234 100.00%
BOSSFO 2704 DL 52087 292.55 288.21 370.13 94.70% 198.3 289 90.89% 261.94 0.0969 78.53%
BOSSFO 2704 UA 173228 397.62 393.81 543.49 97.46% 153.0 1239 91.35% 359.76 0.1330 107.85%
The good news here for B6 is that they are really gaining on UA here. That's the smallest yield gap between B6/UA that I have seen. That's also the highest yield I've seen B6 here since a couple of years back when DL entered the market and UA started running lie flat here. it's interesting that UA has now gone to narrowbodies exclusively here and B6 has still managed to close gap. There should be an all-core A321 for B6 here in Q4, so that will change things a little bit. In terms of capacity, it seems like this market could support more.

BOSLAX 2611 AA 132849 297.69 294.17 370.12 95.37% 163.3 899 90.52% 266.27 0.1020 88.52%
BOSLAX 2611 AS 41249 248.75 248.21 289.22 98.70% 156.1 297 89.00% 220.91 0.0846 73.44%
BOSLAX 2611 B6 102609 330.69 330.49 368.18 99.48% 159.0 709 91.02% 300.82 0.1152 100.00%
BOSLAX 2611 DL 77586 323.81 322.19 345.04 92.89% 168.3 493 93.49% 301.22 0.1154 100.13%
BOSLAX 2611 UA 56020 317.16 317.08 317.93 90.76% 172.1 374 87.02% 275.93 0.1057 91.73%
Another market that's pretty constant YoY. This was also probably the highest yielding quarter here for a while. It seems like both AA/UA moved away from lie flat here toward the end of the quarter, which contributed to B6's large premium over them. Not really sure how much longer AS will last here. They are clearly not competitive at all.

FLLLAX 2343 AS 22065 217.86 217.00 443.17 99.62% 152.7 181 79.81% 173.19 0.0739
FLLLAX 2343 B6 89763 300.92 300.87 333.65 99.86% 159.0 656 86.07% 258.97 0.1105
MIALAX 2342 AA 248776 313.74 311.51 370.60 96.21% 195.1 1401 91.03% 283.57 0.1211
This is quite interesting. As I said, tough quarter for FLL all the way around in overall yield. Q3 is normally the hardest quarter for South Florida and this Q3 was really bad. Note that B6 went up to 4x daily here. Looks like the market did have somewhat of a hard time absorbing that. Looking at AS's performance on FLL-LAX, it's no wonder they have made it seasonal.

FLLSFO 2584 B6 51379 310.12 309.96 387.75 99.80% 159.0 363 89.02% 275.93 0.1068
FLLSFO 2584 UA 25130 270.13 263.13 340.49 90.96% 174.6 182 79.09% 208.11 0.0805
MIASFO 2585 AA 109316 299.72 298.06 329.93 94.80% 179.5 673 90.51% 269.78 0.1044
They seem to be doing better on FLL-SFO now. Again, that is terrible yield from UA on FLL-SFO. Not sure what they are still doing on this route. That kind of numbers is simply unsustainable.

So, it looks like as B6 adds flight, their yield go down a little bit. But let's wait a couple of more quarters to see how the market will adjust.

Alright, the rest of mint markets.
CityPair Dist Carrier Board AvgFare NSFare ConnFare % NS PerFlight Departures LF Yield PRASM
JFKSAN 2446 B6 56446 334.25 334.23 338.60 99.63% 157.9 416 85.91% 287.14 0.1174 100.00%
JFKSAN 2446 DL 100062 317.40 316.02 358.47 96.75% 182.6 593 92.43% 292.11 0.1194 101.73%
EWRSAN 2425 AS 26537 258.98 257.94 314.97 98.18% 170.2 172 90.67% 233.88 0.0964
EWRSAN 2425 UA 80568 352.37 348.82 434.41 95.85% 166.5 533 90.79% 316.70 0.1306
EWRSAN 2425 WN 1032 251.63 249.45 255.46 63.85% 155.0 8 83.23% 207.61 0.0856
This one did a little better than I thought they would. They added an extra A320 in Sep/Oct (both very low LF month), which explains why their LF was that much lower than DL here. Their fares are still quite a bit higher than DL despite the A320 in Sep. Will be interesting to see how the 3rd mint flight works out. The market can certainly support this with AA's absence. I'm actually surprised the yields aren't even higher here without AA

BOSSAN 2588 AS 23554 292.21 290.92 339.83 97.37% 150.1 177 88.67% 257.96 0.0997 89.05%
BOSSAN 2588 B6 72258 323.66 323.82 290.56 99.52% 159.0 508 89.46% 289.69 0.1119 100.00%
This one was a little more disappointing. They did have a 3rd flight here for most of the Q3 with mint for part of it and A320 for other part. I interpret this as BOS-SAN market unable to handle more than 32 lie flat seats a day. Which is probably which B6 added all-core A321 and A320 here for next summer. This should become quite a bloodbath.

JFKSEA 2422 AS 92051 287.81 287.12 322.61 98.05% 178.8 551 93.41% 268.20 0.1107 94.69%
JFKSEA 2422 B6 50075 322.49 321.96 601.10 99.81% 159.0 358 87.97% 283.23 0.1169 100.00%
JFKSEA 2422 DL 150170 339.25 335.77 467.59 97.35% 177.4 909 93.14% 312.72 0.1291 110.41%
EWRSEA 2402 AS 83505 313.31 312.81 349.93 98.64% 175.0 515 92.67% 289.87 0.1207 N/A
EWRSEA 2402 UA 104039 310.87 310.43 318.75 94.69% 160.6 701 92.42% 286.89 0.1194 N/A
This was easily the strongest quarter B6 had on JFK-SEA ever. That is also the smallest gap in Fares between B6 and DL I can remember on this route. Interesting how AS does so much better out of EWR than JFK. Also, this is the largest gap between B6 and AS in fare and yield since mint entered.

BOSSEA 2496 AS 90970 314.07 313.40 346.21 97.96% 175.8 550 94.07% 294.82 0.1181 99.63%
BOSSEA 2496 B6 51532 329.58 328.68 459.07 99.31% 159.0 360 90.03% 295.92 0.1186 100.00%
BOSSEA 2496 DL 72879 312.38 308.48 362.22 92.75% 160.1 481 94.67% 292.03 0.1170 98.68%
This is more good news for B6 and mint. This is the first quarter B6 had higher fares and yield than both AS and DL. This is also the highest yield I can remember they have ever generated here. I think this is a good evidence of mint slowly winning over ff on this route over AS especially. It wasn't that far back that AS dominated the yields here. We are going to see one extra flight from each carrier next summer. It's certainly doing well enough to support that.

JFKLAS 2248 AA 26538 258.93 255.07 270.98 75.76% 162.2 190 86.12% 219.67 0.0977 86.80%
JFKLAS 2248 B6 101008 278.50 278.54 273.80 99.08% 167.7 663 90.85% 253.07 0.1126 100.00%
JFKLAS 2248 DL 142556 314.40 313.19 427.76 98.94% 177.8 864 92.81% 290.67 0.1293 114.86%
AA is continuing to get wiped out on this route. The gap in fares between B6 and DL is pretty consistent here. A very profitable route for B6 considering that all -core A321 and A320 are also on here. Also keep in mind that they were only running 1 mint flight here for large parts of Sep/Oct.

BOSLAS 2381 B6 101597 259.73 259.52 339.46 99.73% 158.5 735 87.20% 226.31 0.0950 100.00%
BOSLAS 2381 DL 25703 267.76 263.72 316.74 92.37% 162.1 182 87.11% 229.74 0.0965 101.51%
I'm still a little disappointed to see that B6 has not surpassed DL in yield here. Generally, it does seem like mint hasn't achieved the premium yield here like it has in other markets.

tphuang wrote:

Alright, the rest of mint markets.
BOSSEA 2496 AS 90970 314.07 313.40 346.21 97.96% 175.8 550 94.07% 294.82 0.1181 99.63%
BOSSEA 2496 B6 51532 329.58 328.68 459.07 99.31% 159.0 360 90.03% 295.92 0.1186 100.00%
BOSSEA 2496 DL 72879 312.38 308.48 362.22 92.75% 160.1 481 94.67% 292.03 0.1170 98.68%
This is more good news for B6 and mint. This is the first quarter B6 had higher fares and yield than both AS and DL. This is also the highest yield I can remember they have ever generated here. I think this is a good evidence of mint slowly winning over ff on this route over AS especially. It wasn't that far back that AS dominated the yields here. We are going to see one extra flight from each carrier next summer. It's certainly doing well enough to support that.

About time! The previous yield differences never really made sense.

Alright, some more non-premium transcons to look at.

First for the JFK ones
CityPair Dist Carrier Board AvgFare NSFare ConnFare % NS PerFlight Departures LF Yield PRASM Vs B6
JFKONT 2429 B6 23816 246.08 246.08 0.00 100.00% 150.0 170 93.40% 229.83 0.0946 100.00%
JFKBUR 2465 B6 44421 257.75 257.68 350.00 99.92% 150.1 323 91.64% 236.14 0.0958 100.00%
JFKLGB 2465 B6 45935 255.51 253.83 350.17 98.26% 150.0 339 90.33% 229.29 0.0930 100.00%
JFKPHX 2153 AA 116833 263.24 260.25 353.69 96.80% 170.0 770 89.25% 232.27 0.1079 124.41%
JFKPHX 2153 B6 23640 217.29 216.93 334.06 99.70% 150.1 183 86.06% 186.70 0.0867 100.00%
JFKPHX 2153 DL 65553 261.88 257.75 406.49 97.23% 171.7 429 89.01% 229.42 0.1066 122.88%
JFKSMF 2521 B6 33207 233.74 233.32 270.96 98.88% 200.0 183 90.73% 211.69 0.0840 100.00%
JFKSJC 2569 AS 26603 235.26 234.46 281.52 98.29% 160.0 182 91.33% 214.13 0.0834 105.63%
JFKSJC 2569 B6 24254 223.65 223.17 301.52 99.38% 150.0 178 90.84% 202.73 0.0789 100.00%
JFKSJC 2569 DL 29753 276.90 268.60 397.34 93.55% 180.0 182 90.84% 244.00 0.0950 120.36%
JFKOAK 2576 B6 22722 243.09 241.58 314.83 97.93% 150.1 169 89.55% 216.33 0.0840 100.00%
JFKRNO 2411 B6 21062 246.79 244.85 457.60 99.09% 150.0 160 87.76% 214.88 0.0891 100.00%
JFKPDX 2454 AS 28403 231.58 226.78 307.72 94.06% 170.9 182 91.32% 207.09 0.0844 104.89%
JFKPDX 2454 B6 23181 223.90 224.00 187.17 99.73% 150.3 175 88.14% 197.43 0.0805 100.00%
JFKPDX 2454 DL 73960 304.50 301.82 362.01 95.55% 179.8 445 92.43% 278.98 0.1137 141.31%
JFKSLC 1990 B6 48678 211.94 210.95 400.69 99.48% 151.3 363 88.65% 187.01 0.0940 100.00%
JFKSLC 1990 DL 134051 320.65 316.98 462.38 97.47% 182.8 809 90.66% 287.37 0.1444 153.66%

My thoughts are the JFK to secondary LA Basin market is going really well. Even ONT is showing very healthy yield. BUR continues to be the strongest performer among the non-mint transcons. Would be interesting to see if they would put mint here in the future considering that they are already scheduling in all-core A321NEOs here. SMF is another market that does really well considering that it got all-core A321 for all of Q3. It's a market that can support even more flight in summer time. Although, I doubt they would add more. PDX/SJC/PHX are all market they continue to struggle with in 3 way markets. Maybe they need a little more off-peak cuts in Sep/Oct. That second SLC flight seems to be going reasonable well given that this is the low season. RNO/OAK both did better than expected (definitely better than last year)

other ones
BOSBUR 2601 B6 12020 227.32 224.80 282.70 95.65% 158.7 87 87.05% 195.69 0.0752 100.00%
BOSLGB 2602 B6 25810 260.85 259.96 306.41 98.08% 152.9 183 92.24% 239.79 0.0922 100.00%
BOSPHX 2300 AA 113968 288.71 287.91 296.89 91.15% 177.0 695 92.63% 266.70 0.1160 129.99%
BOSPHX 2300 B6 25815 226.07 225.86 244.44 98.86% 156.1 182 90.84% 205.17 0.0892 100.00%
BOSSMF 2636 B6 17246 243.28 243.46 240.69 93.45% 158.5 120 90.66% 220.73 0.0837 100.00%
BOSSJC 2689 B6 22392 288.21 288.18 290.00 98.54% 150.4 167 89.13% 256.86 0.0955 100.00%
BOSSLC 2105 B6 23938 213.46 211.94 252.34 96.22% 158.6 163 92.58% 196.21 0.0932 100.00%
BOSSLC 2105 DL 78956 313.73 312.79 325.05 92.33% 190.6 444 93.28% 291.78 0.1386 148.71%
FLLLAS 2173 B6 24745 234.94 233.08 496.88 99.30% 153.8 182 88.43% 206.11 0.0948 100.00%
FLLLAS 2173 WN 19858 220.77 217.45 233.20 78.90% 156.4 141 90.05% 195.83 0.0901 95.01%
FLLSAN 2269 B6 21225 207.79 207.75 224.08 99.79% 152.0 159 87.80% 182.41 0.0804 100.00%
MCOLAX 2218 AA 97866 230.90 229.48 270.95 96.58% 189.8 567 90.96% 208.73 0.0941 125.18%
MCOLAX 2218 B6 17002 192.15 190.72 283.93 98.47% 156.8 124 87.43% 166.74 0.0752 100.00%
MCOLAX 2218 DL 89866 236.70 235.30 251.71 91.50% 190.8 506 93.09% 219.05 0.0988 131.37%
MCOLAX 2218 UA 39459 225.39 225.10 227.85 89.35% 156.4 282 89.48% 201.41 0.0908 120.79%
BUFLAX 2218 B6 24116 244.92 243.68 307.49 98.06% 153.2 171 92.06% 224.34 0.1011 100.00%
MCOSLC 1931 B6 21933 161.90 161.81 177.11 99.44% 150.1 167 87.47% 141.54 0.0733 100.00%
MCOSLC 1931 DL 82842 238.22 235.49 266.78 91.25% 196.8 451 93.35% 219.82 0.1138 155.30%
BOSPDX 2537 AS 54084 320.26 319.92 331.77 97.09% 162.2 365 91.35% 292.26 0.1152 123.52%
BOSPDX 2537 B6 40940 254.46 254.80 233.00 98.42% 158.6 278 92.86% 236.61 0.0933 100.00%
FLLSLC 2084 B6 21755 186.41 186.22 217.03 99.38% 155.8 166 84.13% 156.66 0.0752 100.00%
FLLSLC 2084 DL 25386 253.44 226.69 338.35 76.05% 160.4 179 88.40% 200.39 0.0962 127.91%

So BOS-SJC seems to be high performer here. That second flight makes a lot of sense. BOS-PHX continues to be a struggle in what is a low season. BOS-BUR numbers improved a little bit, but the numbers are still not great for a service that than 3x weekly.
Aside from BOS, FLL numbers as a whole just seem to be down this quarter. They did reasonably well against competition. Maybe on FLL-SLC, DL will move it to MIA at some point. MCO transcon continues to be a huge bloodbath. BUF-LAX did surprisingly great in Q3.

tphuang wrote:

Another market that's pretty constant YoY. This was also probably the highest yielding quarter here for a while. It seems like both AA/UA moved away from lie flat here toward the end of the quarter, which contributed to B6's large premium over them. Not really sure how much longer AS will last here. They are clearly not competitive at all.

This is quite interesting. As I said, tough quarter for FLL all the way around in overall yield. Q3 is normally the hardest quarter for South Florida and this Q3 was really bad. Note that B6 went up to 4x daily here. Looks like the market did have somewhat of a hard time absorbing that. Looking at AS's performance on FLL-LAX, it's no wonder they have made it seasonal.

UA is only running lay flat 757 on the LAX-BOS red-eye and morning Westbound. The other daily flight is on a 900.

As for FLL, the AS times, especially Westbound aren't that great. VX had a noonish departure to both directions which would capture a lot of cruise pax. I also think there's a big hole in the B6 schedule. They should think of re-timing 700 to leave a few hours earlier for better Caribbean connections and they should re-time 701 to noonish departure out of FLL to get cruise pax. Otherwise it's a long sit waiting for 101.

Tphuang,

Do you think B6 would do a lot better on JFK-PHX and BOS-PHX if they had at least 2x daily, or otherwise had better timed flights? I’ve talked to a lot of people on AA flights from PHX-JFK who say they would rather fly on B6 but the times (primarily bc of the redeye) make it a nonstarter. Anecdotal, but I buy that. What do you think?

tphuang wrote:

Alright, the rest of mint markets.

BOSLAS 2381 B6 101597 259.73 259.52 339.46 99.73% 158.5 735 87.20% 226.31 0.0950 100.00%
BOSLAS 2381 DL 25703 267.76 263.72 316.74 92.37% 162.1 182 87.11% 229.74 0.0965 101.51%
I'm still a little disappointed to see that B6 has not surpassed DL in yield here. Generally, it does seem like mint hasn't achieved the premium yield here like it has in other markets.

Was NK On BOS-LAS in Q3-2019?

adamh8297 wrote:

tphuang wrote:

Alright, the rest of mint markets.

BOSLAS 2381 B6 101597 259.73 259.52 339.46 99.73% 158.5 735 87.20% 226.31 0.0950 100.00%
BOSLAS 2381 DL 25703 267.76 263.72 316.74 92.37% 162.1 182 87.11% 229.74 0.0965 101.51%
I'm still a little disappointed to see that B6 has not surpassed DL in yield here. Generally, it does seem like mint hasn't achieved the premium yield here like it has in other markets.

Was NK On BOS-LAS in Q3-2019?

It was. I was filtering out ULCCs on the mint markets.

JoseSalazar wrote:

Tphuang,

Do you think B6 would do a lot better on JFK-PHX and BOS-PHX if they had at least 2x daily, or otherwise had better timed flights? I’ve talked to a lot of people on AA flights from PHX-JFK who say they would rather fly on B6 but the times (primarily bc of the redeye) make it a nonstarter. Anecdotal, but I buy that. What do you think?

Most definitely. Especially in winter season. It's a market that should support mint in winter season. A lot of rich retirees going there to play golf.

BOS-PHX is actually going to 2x with a daytime option this summer. It should stick year round. JFK is slot constrained. They will have to want to take PHX market more seriously to add a second flight there.

JoseSalazar wrote:

Tphuang,

Do you think B6 would do a lot better on JFK-PHX and BOS-PHX if they had at least 2x daily, or otherwise had better timed flights? I’ve talked to a lot of people on AA flights from PHX-JFK who say they would rather fly on B6 but the times (primarily bc of the redeye) make it a nonstarter. Anecdotal, but I buy that. What do you think?

Also true for all their other redeye secondary west coast markets (PDX, SMF, OAK, SJC, etc). Not unique to PHX. No one likes redeyes.

tphuang wrote:

CityPair Dist Carrier Board AvgFare NSFare ConnFare % NS PerFlight Departures LF Yield PRASM Vs B6
BUFLAX 2218 B6 24116 244.92 243.68 307.49 98.06% 153.2 171 92.06% 224.34 0.1011 100.00%

BUF-LAX did surprisingly great in Q3.

If i'm reading that right, 92.06% LF and a yield on 0.1011 makes it one of the better non-premium transcons. This flight seems to be regularly doing quite well now.

Any info on why JFK-BGI has been downsized to the A320 from the daily A321 seems especially strange for the winter season.

JFK PHX had a daylight flight many years ago

To answer your question, Im sure they lose customers because of a garbage schedule to places like DEN and PHX.

The once a day redeye only works when they are the only game in town: SMF RNO etc. If you fly nonstop, you get a redeye

In places with plenty of nonstops, it makes them less desirable


Heard and ugly rumor about West Coast changes coming. We shall see what comes

Don't forget PDX. Another place where they have the absolute worst schedule imaginable in terms of arrival into PDX and arrival into JFK.

They might need to beef up JFK-SMF with daytime flight to prevent competition from coming in. It's a market that can support that.

On the once daily market, they are basically just competing against a lot of more convenient one-stop options.

Aside from drawing down LGB, what other major changes can they do? Maybe leaving RNO finally?

jfklganyc wrote:

JFK PHX had a daylight flight many years ago

To answer your question, Im sure they lose customers because of a garbage schedule to places like DEN and PHX.

The once a day redeye only works when they are the only game in town: SMF RNO etc. If you fly nonstop, you get a redeye

In places with plenty of nonstops, it makes them less desirable


Heard and ugly rumor about West Coast changes coming. We shall see what comes

What’s the rumor?

Bluewho wrote:

jfklganyc wrote:

JFK PHX had a daylight flight many years ago

To answer your question, Im sure they lose customers because of a garbage schedule to places like DEN and PHX.

The once a day redeye only works when they are the only game in town: SMF RNO etc. If you fly nonstop, you get a redeye

In places with plenty of nonstops, it makes them less desirable


Heard and ugly rumor about West Coast changes coming. We shall see what comes

What’s the rumor?

Hopefully LAX/SFO- EWR.

ucdtim17 wrote:

JoseSalazar wrote:

Tphuang,

Do you think B6 would do a lot better on JFK-PHX and BOS-PHX if they had at least 2x daily, or otherwise had better timed flights? I’ve talked to a lot of people on AA flights from PHX-JFK who say they would rather fly on B6 but the times (primarily bc of the redeye) make it a nonstarter. Anecdotal, but I buy that. What do you think?

Also true for all their other redeye secondary west coast markets (PDX, SMF, OAK, SJC, etc). Not unique to PHX. No one likes redeyes.

I agree...but I only mentioned PHX because PHX-JFK/BOS each have a lot of better timed flights on AA unlike some of those other markets you mentioned where B6 is the only one on that route. Seems like a good add, possibly with mint, if they added at least one day flights to each. I’m sure there is a slot or two hanging around that could be used for it. PHX-JFK has had an A321 on it lately for thanksgiving and xmas/new year season (ending yesterday I think). I think the capacity is there, and this is one market that imo would be well served by a day flight. Eventually an A321 in the day (mint/core dunno), and a 320 or 220 at night could be a good mix.

tphuang wrote:

BUR continues to be the strongest performer among the non-mint transcons. Would be interesting to see if they would put mint here in the future considering that they are already scheduling in all-core A321NEOs here.

MCO transcon continues to be a huge bloodbath.

The neo only operated 3 times in December to BUR due to erraneous paperwork in Burbank regarding the ramp. They had done work this summer on A7-9 to strengthen the ramp to be able to accomodate the 321 and 900's down on that end, but the airport authority forgot to update their paperwork that it was completed. In addition, the daylight 2358/2359 flights didn't operate from mid-December until today (1/9) with the exception of 1/2. That is the flight that the neo is operating on. 358/359 continue to be a 320.


As for MCO-LAX, the main problem is the timing of the LAX-MCO leg, not leaving LAX until after 4pm. It makes for a brutal arrival in MCO, not getting to a home or hotel until after midnight.

That is the case with a lot of one off B6 red eyes

The garbage timing works for VFR flying to islands

But if they want to get real in between to important markets like LA and Orlando, they need to have a properly time flight for families...forget attracting Business people

Too many markets, it seems like they are in them just to be in them. Little effort, little reward

baje427 wrote:

Any info on why JFK-BGI has been downsized to the A320 from the daily A321 seems especially strange for the winter season.

Looks like a more evened out schedule. The red eye is operating daily now instead of 4xW returning back to JFK at 05:44 am. Also the third Saturday flight is discontinued.

So instead of 8 X A321 and 4 W A320 you now have 14 W A320. Roughly the same seat count.

Meanwhile FLL-BGI is reduced to 3W and retimed as a return back to FLL leaving BGI 5:55 PM instead of morning departure. Seems like they experimenting here.

ryby92 wrote:

baje427 wrote:

Any info on why JFK-BGI has been downsized to the A320 from the daily A321 seems especially strange for the winter season.

Looks like a more evened out schedule. The red eye is operating daily now instead of 4xW returning back to JFK at 05:44 am. Also the third Saturday flight is discontinued.

So instead of 8 X A321 and 4 W A320 you now have 14 W A320. Roughly the same seat count.

Meanwhile FLL-BGI is reduced to 3W and retimed as a return back to FLL leaving BGI 5:55 PM instead of morning departure. Seems like they experimenting here.

Thanks for the explanation.

Seems like the FLL-Caribbean stuff is struggling a little, my guess is partly due to the ability to offer connections that work both ways given the limited frequencies (a lot of markets are 1-2x) and limited gates to have true banks.

Sometimes it works in conjunction with MCO for example people can fly PVD-MCO-CUN/AUS/XXX-FLL-PVD but I don't think they actively schedule to make sure those things can always happen.

Is there a specific time of year in which B6 announces new routes? Or do they just announce them on a case by case basis?

About FLL and the connections available, I’ve heard several people complain about the lack of them. Then again, gates are limited at FLL so I’m sure they’re doing their best.

Caribbean FLL is competing with AA Caribbean MIA that is a tough battle there.

jfklganyc wrote:

Heard and ugly rumor about West Coast changes coming. We shall see what comes

Why do guys do this? Seriously. I have a secret. Have a great day folks. Either spill it, or don't even mention anything. It's not like you're safeguarding insider info. That's why they call it a RUMOR. SMH.

BunkerF16 wrote:

jfklganyc wrote:

Heard and ugly rumor about West Coast changes coming. We shall see what comes

Why do guys do this? Seriously. I have a secret. Have a great day folks. Either spill it, or don't even mention anything. It's not like you're safeguarding insider info. That's why they call it a RUMOR. SMH.

^THIS x10. It's super corny. Half the purpose of internet forums is to give people reason to reasonably speculate.

Looks like not only BGI lost the A321; UVF and GND have both also been downgraded to A320's.

Now, some Boston data. Will start off with some of the largest markets.
CityPairDist Carrier Board AvgFare NSFare ConnFare% NS PerFlight Dep LF Yield PRASM Vs B6
BOSLGA 184 AA 129540 184.11 184.10 209.81 99.96% 099.2 1811 72.07% 132.68 0.7211 137.57%
BOSLGA 184 B6 48764 166.13 165.78 321.01 99.77% 100.1 0837 58.18% 096.45 0.5242 100.00%
BOSLGA 184 DL 152133 211.81 211.78 451.17 99.99% 091.0 2352 71.06% 150.49 0.8179 156.03%
Looks like their fares are up a bit. They are having trouble filling these flights. At close to $100 per passenger, this is probably breakeven mark. The yield gap vs AA/DL is basically unchanged from Q2. Shrunk 10% vs DL and increased 10% vs AA compared to a year ago. I doubt anything will change here until they go to 10x daily. At that point, they should become more competitive here.

BOSEWR 200 B6 57763 161.51 161.51 0.00 100.00% 100.2 0958 60.16% 097.16 0.4858 100.00%
BOSEWR 200 UA 214893 215.44 215.44 0.00 100.00% 152.4 1816 77.64% 167.27 0.8363 172.15%
Similar dynamics like LGA where they struggle to fill the flights. They are going up to 8x daily next summer. That might allow them to capture more higher yielding types. Although, I'm guessing UA fills a lot of the flights with connection. Not something B6 can compete against until they start flying to Europe. The yield gap with UA shrunk vs Q2 and increased slightly vs a year ago.

BOSJFK 187 AA 06769 180.84 180.84 0.00 100.00% 104.0 0128 50.83% 091.93 0.4916 68.38%
BOSJFK 187 B6 70934 188.59 186.59 352.41 98.80% 101.8 0967 72.05% 134.44 0.7189 100.00%
BOSJFK 187 DL 98127 179.72 179.72 0.00 100.00% 092.2 1348 78.99% 141.97 0.7592 105.60%
AA is basically out of the game here with less than 1 flight a day for the quarter. I'm assuming both B6/DL have a lot of connections here filling the cabins. Even with some ugly flight times, much healthier yield here for B6 vs LGA/EWR. performance is about the same vs a year ago and last quarter.

BOSDCA 399 AA 198970 171.94 171.85 256.38 99.89% 115.6 1952 88.21% 151.59 0.3799 119.49%
BOSDCA 399 B6 196831 156.94 156.91 327.00 99.98% 104.7 2326 80.85% 126.86 0.3179 100.00%
So this is the first quarter of result since B6 fully went to 15x daily on BOS-DCA. You can see they have actually surpassed AA here on the number of flights. This has depressed their yield quite a bit. The yield gap vs AA went up 10% YoY and 15% vs last quarter. Let's see how this goes. I think as time goes on and their improved schedule sinks in, their numbers will catch up to B6. In absolute numbers, their yield is about flat YoY and down vs Q2.

BOSPHL 280 AA 220929 181.46 181.14 328.98 99.78% 143.6 1857 82.84% 150.06 0.5359 131.28%
BOSPHL 280 B6 91840 148.85 148.85 0.00 100.00% 100.5 1190 76.80% 114.31 0.4082 100.00%
BOSPHL 280 DL 44248 126.63 126.63 0.00 100.00% 072.5 0889 68.62% 086.89 0.3103 76.01%
This is another bloodbath as a result of DL's entrance. AA has cut back a few flights vs a year ago and maintain their lead here. Since B6 added those 2 flights, they have seen the yield gap vs AA increase. DL is just completely uncompetitive here. They got even worse numbers here than last quarter. One of their worst numbers out of BOS. I'm anticipating when Q4 numbers are out, EWR/DCA/ORD will look almost as bad for DL.

BOSATL 946 B6 88709 138.21 137.94 269.06 99.79% 133.3 0812 81.99% 113.09 0.1195 100.00%
BOSATL 946 DL 386356 185.28 182.48 320.48 97.97% 191.2 2168 93.20% 170.08 0.1798 150.39%
Another bloodbath of quarte here. They did have more A320 here vs Q2, so the cost at least improved a little bit. The yield is unchanged vs Q2. The yield is up 30% vs a year ago, but they were using all A320s at that time. WN dropping out seems to have helped the overall yield here. Seeing how they are averaging 133 pax/flight, it's an obvious route to get A220s.

BOSMSP 1124 B6 68323 161.34 161.34 0.00 100.00% 156.3 0523 83.57% 134.84 0.1200 100.00%
BOSMSP 1124 DL 181095 222.87 219.30 399.92 98.02% 188.9 1021 93.90% 205.92 0.1832 152.71%
The number here actually looks not bad. They probably broke even here actually. Easily their best quarter since they entered. The yield is up 15% vs Q2 and 20% vs a year ago.

BOSDTW 632 B6 49606 173.17 173.17 0.00 100.00% 105.2 0572 82.41% 142.70 0.2258 100.00%
BOSDTW 632 DL 193789 200.25 198.58 362.98 98.98% 176.1 1211 90.85% 180.40 0.2854 126.42%
The nubmers here didn't look as good. The yield gap with DL increased over Q2 despite DL upgauging a little more here. They did add a 4th flight for part of the quarter. Maybe another case where as they increase capacity, there is some lag time before they capture higher yielding types.

tphuang wrote:

Alright, some more non-premium transcons to look at.

First for the JFK ones
CityPair Dist Carrier Board AvgFare NSFare ConnFare % NS PerFlight Departures LF Yield PRASM Vs B6
JFKONT 2429 B6 23816 246.08 246.08 0.00 100.00% 150.0 170 93.40% 229.83 0.0946 100.00%
JFKBUR 2465 B6 44421 257.75 257.68 350.00 99.92% 150.1 323 91.64% 236.14 0.0958 100.00%
JFKLGB 2465 B6 45935 255.51 253.83 350.17 98.26% 150.0 339 90.33% 229.29 0.0930 100.00%
JFKPHX 2153 AA 116833 263.24 260.25 353.69 96.80% 170.0 770 89.25% 232.27 0.1079 124.41%
JFKPHX 2153 B6 23640 217.29 216.93 334.06 99.70% 150.1 183 86.06% 186.70 0.0867 100.00%
JFKPHX 2153 DL 65553 261.88 257.75 406.49 97.23% 171.7 429 89.01% 229.42 0.1066 122.88%
JFKSMF 2521 B6 33207 233.74 233.32 270.96 98.88% 200.0 183 90.73% 211.69 0.0840 100.00%
JFKSJC 2569 AS 26603 235.26 234.46 281.52 98.29% 160.0 182 91.33% 214.13 0.0834 105.63%
JFKSJC 2569 B6 24254 223.65 223.17 301.52 99.38% 150.0 178 90.84% 202.73 0.0789 100.00%
JFKSJC 2569 DL 29753 276.90 268.60 397.34 93.55% 180.0 182 90.84% 244.00 0.0950 120.36%
JFKOAK 2576 B6 22722 243.09 241.58 314.83 97.93% 150.1 169 89.55% 216.33 0.0840 100.00%
JFKRNO 2411 B6 21062 246.79 244.85 457.60 99.09% 150.0 160 87.76% 214.88 0.0891 100.00%
JFKPDX 2454 AS 28403 231.58 226.78 307.72 94.06% 170.9 182 91.32% 207.09 0.0844 104.89%
JFKPDX 2454 B6 23181 223.90 224.00 187.17 99.73% 150.3 175 88.14% 197.43 0.0805 100.00%
JFKPDX 2454 DL 73960 304.50 301.82 362.01 95.55% 179.8 445 92.43% 278.98 0.1137 141.31%
JFKSLC 1990 B6 48678 211.94 210.95 400.69 99.48% 151.3 363 88.65% 187.01 0.0940 100.00%
JFKSLC 1990 DL 134051 320.65 316.98 462.38 97.47% 182.8 809 90.66% 287.37 0.1444 153.66%

My thoughts are the JFK to secondary LA Basin market is going really well. Even ONT is showing very healthy yield. BUR continues to be the strongest performer among the non-mint transcons. Would be interesting to see if they would put mint here in the future considering that they are already scheduling in all-core A321NEOs here. SMF is another market that does really well considering that it got all-core A321 for all of Q3. It's a market that can support even more flight in summer time. Although, I doubt they would add more. PDX/SJC/PHX are all market they continue to struggle with in 3 way markets. Maybe they need a little more off-peak cuts in Sep/Oct. That second SLC flight seems to be going reasonable well given that this is the low season. RNO/OAK both did better than expected (definitely better than last year)

other ones
BOSBUR 2601 B6 12020 227.32 224.80 282.70 95.65% 158.7 87 87.05% 195.69 0.0752 100.00%
BOSLGB 2602 B6 25810 260.85 259.96 306.41 98.08% 152.9 183 92.24% 239.79 0.0922 100.00%
BOSPHX 2300 AA 113968 288.71 287.91 296.89 91.15% 177.0 695 92.63% 266.70 0.1160 129.99%
BOSPHX 2300 B6 25815 226.07 225.86 244.44 98.86% 156.1 182 90.84% 205.17 0.0892 100.00%
BOSSMF 2636 B6 17246 243.28 243.46 240.69 93.45% 158.5 120 90.66% 220.73 0.0837 100.00%
BOSSJC 2689 B6 22392 288.21 288.18 290.00 98.54% 150.4 167 89.13% 256.86 0.0955 100.00%
BOSSLC 2105 B6 23938 213.46 211.94 252.34 96.22% 158.6 163 92.58% 196.21 0.0932 100.00%
BOSSLC 2105 DL 78956 313.73 312.79 325.05 92.33% 190.6 444 93.28% 291.78 0.1386 148.71%
FLLLAS 2173 B6 24745 234.94 233.08 496.88 99.30% 153.8 182 88.43% 206.11 0.0948 100.00%
FLLLAS 2173 WN 19858 220.77 217.45 233.20 78.90% 156.4 141 90.05% 195.83 0.0901 95.01%
FLLSAN 2269 B6 21225 207.79 207.75 224.08 99.79% 152.0 159 87.80% 182.41 0.0804 100.00%
MCOLAX 2218 AA 97866 230.90 229.48 270.95 96.58% 189.8 567 90.96% 208.73 0.0941 125.18%
MCOLAX 2218 B6 17002 192.15 190.72 283.93 98.47% 156.8 124 87.43% 166.74 0.0752 100.00%
MCOLAX 2218 DL 89866 236.70 235.30 251.71 91.50% 190.8 506 93.09% 219.05 0.0988 131.37%
MCOLAX 2218 UA 39459 225.39 225.10 227.85 89.35% 156.4 282 89.48% 201.41 0.0908 120.79%
BUFLAX 2218 B6 24116 244.92 243.68 307.49 98.06% 153.2 171 92.06% 224.34 0.1011 100.00%
MCOSLC 1931 B6 21933 161.90 161.81 177.11 99.44% 150.1 167 87.47% 141.54 0.0733 100.00%
MCOSLC 1931 DL 82842 238.22 235.49 266.78 91.25% 196.8 451 93.35% 219.82 0.1138 155.30%
BOSPDX 2537 AS 54084 320.26 319.92 331.77 97.09% 162.2 365 91.35% 292.26 0.1152 123.52%
BOSPDX 2537 B6 40940 254.46 254.80 233.00 98.42% 158.6 278 92.86% 236.61 0.0933 100.00%
FLLSLC 2084 B6 21755 186.41 186.22 217.03 99.38% 155.8 166 84.13% 156.66 0.0752 100.00%
FLLSLC 2084 DL 25386 253.44 226.69 338.35 76.05% 160.4 179 88.40% 200.39 0.0962 127.91%

So BOS-SJC seems to be high performer here. That second flight makes a lot of sense. BOS-PHX continues to be a struggle in what is a low season. BOS-BUR numbers improved a little bit, but the numbers are still not great for a service that than 3x weekly.
Aside from BOS, FLL numbers as a whole just seem to be down this quarter. They did reasonably well against competition. Maybe on FLL-SLC, DL will move it to MIA at some point. MCO transcon continues to be a huge bloodbath. BUF-LAX did surprisingly great in Q3.

With the introduction of all-core 321N on the high performing BUR, I’d say it’s only a matter of time until this becomes a MINT station. There’s a lot of wealth and Hollywood/Entertainment industry in the area who use BUR so I’d imagine a premium offering would kill it especially on the JFK route.

Good to see BUR-BOS is gradually gaining traction. BUR has been a mostly west of the Rockies Regional route airport during its history so with many of these new transcon routes it takes time for word of mouth and People to find out there is an alternative to the east coast other than LAX. I’m sure with a little marketing and advertising around the LA area B6 can get word out.

DL has a commercial spot on Pandora radio promoting new ATL-ONT/BUR which is a nice little advert.

I'm very glad they are increasing JFK-SRQ and BOS-SRQ this winter. I know no one else cares....BUT I DO !

B6 should start FLL-LIR. LIR only has service to the Miami area via MIA, and I believe there should be more options to Costa Rica. Maybe BOS-SJO could work as well.

Iggy500 wrote:

B6 should start FLL-LIR. LIR only has service to the Miami area via MIA, and I believe there should be more options to Costa Rica. Maybe BOS-SJO could work as well.

Or LAX-LIR for us wave shredding surfers in so-cal. AS is usually pretty high priced and DL only runs seasonally.

tphuang wrote:

Now, some Boston data. Will start off with some of the largest markets.
CityPairDist Carrier Board AvgFare NSFare ConnFare% NS PerFlight Dep LF Yield PRASM Vs B6
BOSLGA 184 AA 129540 184.11 184.10 209.81 99.96% 099.2 1811 72.07% 132.68 0.7211 137.57%
BOSLGA 184 B6 48764 166.13 165.78 321.01 99.77% 100.1 0837 58.18% 096.45 0.5242 100.00%
BOSLGA 184 DL 152133 211.81 211.78 451.17 99.99% 091.0 2352 71.06% 150.49 0.8179 156.03%
Looks like their fares are up a bit. They are having trouble filling these flights. At close to $100 per passenger, this is probably breakeven mark. The yield gap vs AA/DL is basically unchanged from Q2. Shrunk 10% vs DL and increased 10% vs AA compared to a year ago. I doubt anything will change here until they go to 10x daily. At that point, they should become more competitive here.

BOSEWR 200 B6 57763 161.51 161.51 0.00 100.00% 100.2 0958 60.16% 097.16 0.4858 100.00%
BOSEWR 200 UA 214893 215.44 215.44 0.00 100.00% 152.4 1816 77.64% 167.27 0.8363 172.15%
Similar dynamics like LGA where they struggle to fill the flights. They are going up to 8x daily next summer. That might allow them to capture more higher yielding types. Although, I'm guessing UA fills a lot of the flights with connection. Not something B6 can compete against until they start flying to Europe. The yield gap with UA shrunk vs Q2 and increased slightly vs a year ago.

BOSJFK 187 AA 06769 180.84 180.84 0.00 100.00% 104.0 0128 50.83% 091.93 0.4916 68.38%
BOSJFK 187 B6 70934 188.59 186.59 352.41 98.80% 101.8 0967 72.05% 134.44 0.7189 100.00%
BOSJFK 187 DL 98127 179.72 179.72 0.00 100.00% 092.2 1348 78.99% 141.97 0.7592 105.60%
AA is basically out of the game here with less than 1 flight a day for the quarter. I'm assuming both B6/DL have a lot of connections here filling the cabins. Even with some ugly flight times, much healthier yield here for B6 vs LGA/EWR. performance is about the same vs a year ago and last quarter.

BOSDCA 399 AA 198970 171.94 171.85 256.38 99.89% 115.6 1952 88.21% 151.59 0.3799 119.49%
BOSDCA 399 B6 196831 156.94 156.91 327.00 99.98% 104.7 2326 80.85% 126.86 0.3179 100.00%
So this is the first quarter of result since B6 fully went to 15x daily on BOS-DCA. You can see they have actually surpassed AA here on the number of flights. This has depressed their yield quite a bit. The yield gap vs AA went up 10% YoY and 15% vs last quarter. Let's see how this goes. I think as time goes on and their improved schedule sinks in, their numbers will catch up to B6. In absolute numbers, their yield is about flat YoY and down vs Q2.

BOSPHL 280 AA 220929 181.46 181.14 328.98 99.78% 143.6 1857 82.84% 150.06 0.5359 131.28%
BOSPHL 280 B6 91840 148.85 148.85 0.00 100.00% 100.5 1190 76.80% 114.31 0.4082 100.00%
BOSPHL 280 DL 44248 126.63 126.63 0.00 100.00% 072.5 0889 68.62% 086.89 0.3103 76.01%
This is another bloodbath as a result of DL's entrance. AA has cut back a few flights vs a year ago and maintain their lead here. Since B6 added those 2 flights, they have seen the yield gap vs AA increase. DL is just completely uncompetitive here. They got even worse numbers here than last quarter. One of their worst numbers out of BOS. I'm anticipating when Q4 numbers are out, EWR/DCA/ORD will look almost as bad for DL.

BOSATL 946 B6 88709 138.21 137.94 269.06 99.79% 133.3 0812 81.99% 113.09 0.1195 100.00%
BOSATL 946 DL 386356 185.28 182.48 320.48 97.97% 191.2 2168 93.20% 170.08 0.1798 150.39%
Another bloodbath of quarte here. They did have more A320 here vs Q2, so the cost at least improved a little bit. The yield is unchanged vs Q2. The yield is up 30% vs a year ago, but they were using all A320s at that time. WN dropping out seems to have helped the overall yield here. Seeing how they are averaging 133 pax/flight, it's an obvious route to get A220s.

BOSMSP 1124 B6 68323 161.34 161.34 0.00 100.00% 156.3 0523 83.57% 134.84 0.1200 100.00%
BOSMSP 1124 DL 181095 222.87 219.30 399.92 98.02% 188.9 1021 93.90% 205.92 0.1832 152.71%
The number here actually looks not bad. They probably broke even here actually. Easily their best quarter since they entered. The yield is up 15% vs Q2 and 20% vs a year ago.

BOSDTW 632 B6 49606 173.17 173.17 0.00 100.00% 105.2 0572 82.41% 142.70 0.2258 100.00%
BOSDTW 632 DL 193789 200.25 198.58 362.98 98.98% 176.1 1211 90.85% 180.40 0.2854 126.42%
The nubmers here didn't look as good. The yield gap with DL increased over Q2 despite DL upgauging a little more here. They did add a 4th flight for part of the quarter. Maybe another case where as they increase capacity, there is some lag time before they capture higher yielding types.

Thanks! Lots of great info here.

I took a look at the figures you posted in Q3 last year and compared them to this year, and found some interesting tidbits. Also consider that in Q3, RASM decreased by .9%, so any market above this actually outperformed system (and anything below underperformed).

Mint:

-All markets other than BOSLAS (-3%), BOSSAN (-5%), and FLLLAX (-7.5%) outperformed system. BOSSEA, JFKSEA, and BOSSFO all posted gains of 23%, which is really impressive.
-BOSSFO is the highest yielding Mint market, which is especially intriguing since just a couple years ago it was getting pummeled. I also think that the 6th frequency on an All-Core A321 started in Q3, which makes these figures even more fascinating.
-Even though BOSSAN saw a decrease in yield, I believe the third frequency was operating without Mint (at least part of the quarter), so with this in mind I assume the market is incredibly profitable. No wonder they are going to 4x next summer.
-JFKLAX went up to an 11th awfully timed frequency for a portion of the quarter, yet still maintained flat yield, which is a good sign of strength.
-BOSLAX, FLLSFO, and JFKLAS also posted double digit growth.
-I'm actually surprised that FLLLAX didn't see a bigger drop in yield. That fourth frequency that operated for part of the quarter was so terribly timed, and yet it didn't drag down yields all that much.

Non-Mint:
I'll hold off on doing a full analysis until you post the remaining data, but some tidbits so far on BOS:

-It looks like the downgauge of some flights to the E190 on BOSATL has paid off, with a 29% increase. I'm not sure if that's enough to offset the higher CASM though.....this market needs the A220, stat.
-BOSBUR yield increased 142%, but it's still under performing other BOS transcon markets.
-BOSDCA is flat despite the increase to 14x, which is a great sign.
-BOSDTW also saw an increase of 4% despite the 4th frequency.
-BOSMSP seems to finally be turning a corner, with yields up 21%.
-BOSPHL at -13% is turning into a bloodbth.
-BOSPHX (+15%) and BOSSJC (+12%) are earning their daytime transcon flights next summer.

tphuang wrote:

BOSDCA 399 AA 198970 171.94 171.85 256.38 99.89% 115.6 1952 88.21% 151.59 0.3799 119.49%
BOSDCA 399 B6 196831 156.94 156.91 327.00 99.98% 104.7 2326 80.85% 126.86 0.3179 100.00%
So this is the first quarter of result since B6 fully went to 15x daily on BOS-DCA. You can see they have actually surpassed AA here on the number of flights. This has depressed their yield quite a bit. The yield gap vs AA went up 10% YoY and 15% vs last quarter. Let's see how this goes. I think as time goes on and their improved schedule sinks in, their numbers will catch up to B6. In absolute numbers, their yield is about flat YoY and down vs Q2.

Could you please post BOS-BWI and BOS-IAD data as there are some travelers in the DC area who travel on the WN BWI-BOS or UA IAD-BOS nonstop flights?

Similarly, an analysis of some of other markets need to include additional airports, including

• MDW in addition or ORD in the Chicago market
• DAL in addition to DFW in the Dallas/Fort Worth market
• HOU in addition to IAH in the Houston market
• BUR, LGB, SNA, and ONT in addition to LAX in the Los Angeles market
• MIA in addition to FLL in the Miami/Fort Lauderdale market
• OAK and SJC in addition to SFO in the San Francisco Bay Area market
• PAE in addition to SEA in the Seattle market

phllax wrote:

tphuang wrote:

BUR continues to be the strongest performer among the non-mint transcons. Would be interesting to see if they would put mint here in the future considering that they are already scheduling in all-core A321NEOs here.

MCO transcon continues to be a huge bloodbath.

The neo only operated 3 times in December to BUR due to erraneous paperwork in Burbank regarding the ramp. They had done work this summer on A7-9 to strengthen the ramp to be able to accomodate the 321 and 900's down on that end, but the airport authority forgot to update their paperwork that it was completed. In addition, the daylight 2358/2359 flights didn't operate from mid-December until today (1/9) with the exception of 1/2. That is the flight that the neo is operating on. 358/359 continue to be a 320.


As for MCO-LAX, the main problem is the timing of the LAX-MCO leg, not leaving LAX until after 4pm. It makes for a brutal arrival in MCO, not getting to a home or hotel until after midnight.

I think I see double A321 into Burbank starting on 1/15 (single A321 on 1/14 on 359) per FR24. I believe it should be neo in all cases.

nine4nine wrote:

With the introduction of all-core 321N on the high performing BUR, I’d say it’s only a matter of time until this becomes a MINT station. There’s a lot of wealth and Hollywood/Entertainment industry in the area who use BUR so I’d imagine a premium offering would kill it especially on the JFK route.

Good to see BUR-BOS is gradually gaining traction. BUR has been a mostly west of the Rockies Regional route airport during its history so with many of these new transcon routes it takes time for word of mouth and People to find out there is an alternative to the east coast other than LAX. I’m sure with a little marketing and advertising around the LA area B6 can get word out.

DL has a commercial spot on Pandora radio promoting new ATL-ONT/BUR which is a nice little advert.

Unless they put Mint in a NEO, we won’t see it, as the CEO cannot get to JFK non-stop due to possible engine out on the climb and the surrounding terrain as well as the short runway.

In the past 18 months BUR has gotten back ATL, DFW, and MDW flights, started BNA, BOS, HOU, return of AA mainline to PHX, NK to LAS, and more consistent UA mainline to DEN. All the growth has not been without issues as terminal at times is like stuffing 10 pounds of shit in a 5 pound bag. Hopefully the new one will be built as promised. It will have the same number of gates 14, but all gates will be able to handle up to 737-900/321 sized airplanes.

321 at BUR needs to be a NEO

BUR has done well with them

I wonder if the 321 NEO will finally allow them to start a nonstop STT JFK and BOS

It is a glaring hole in their network

Im surprised no one has discussed this. The CEOs couldnt get off the runway (climb gradient) with the fuel load needed for JFK and BOS

This has been 737/757 territory

Let's see how the all-core A321NEOs do at BUR. BUR normally performs well in Q2/Q3, but struggles in Q1. I'm not sure it makes sense to do mint at BUR when they could just beef up their schedule at LAX. EWR-LAX seems like a better option for mint than JFK-BUR. Seems like with the secondary LA airports, you need to wait for sometimes for people to notice that there is service there from east coast and use them. If BOS-BUR turns around even more, maybe they can try MCO-BUR. I wouldn't try FLL to secondary LA airport again. FLL-LGB numbers were so terrible.

Yes, SRQ is a very profitable station. That's why they are adding to it while they cut a similarly small station in DAB last year.

Would there be demand for LAX-SJU?
Maybe A220 to for JFK/BOS-STT? A lot of possibilities with A220.

I'm curious now so I'm clicking through the Jetblue website looking at the JFK-BUR flights. (Someone out there has a better way to do this) and bam! here's a core A321CEO on March 8th!