Moderators: jsumali2, richierich, ua900, PanAm_DC10, hOMSaR
tphuang wrote:And now for the large changes at BOS. Expect them to get close to 200 flights sometimes in 2020 and reach that in March 2021 at latest. Once they get there, announcement for BOS250 when they announce the schedule/destination of London flight along with the 4 new gates + access to E gates. They should reach close to 40% domestic market share by end of 2020.
New routes:
IND/CMH/STL/SDF/MEM - I expect one to two of these to be announced
tphuang wrote:My predictions for this year (announcements, not necessarily start in 2020).
From JFK - I'm assuming here JFK slot constraints stay in place and they are unable to get more good slots from anyone.
GUA/UIO/SAL - Looks like GUA is a done deal already. SAL I think will get announced also. UIO is a little iffy. Not sure if high altitude will allow this to happen. If they add these, then their Latin America VFR network out of JFK is complete.
BNA - I'm going to predict again that JFK-BNA will get added this year with 2 flights.
EYW - Another route enabled by A220. Probably a couple of flights a week in winter time.
BZN - Another route I think will be enabled by A220. Once a week in winter time.
Possible cuts to fund this and the European flights
PWM
SAV
RNO
HAV - why is this still daily? Should be made 1x per week on Saturday.
More frequencies on these routes.
SFO - this I think will get a 7th mint flight to be competitive with DL.
ATL - I think a 3rd flight
From EWR - again, depend on if FAA will allow for flights to be added in peak days.
ACK - Obvious add here for summer time.
KIN - one flight here year round
FLL/MCO - more flights to balance out the reductions at LGA
HPN-MVY - another obvious add here for summer time if HPN-ACK did well.
From FLL, adding
SEA/GUA/SAL/IND/CMH - Lucky to see 3 of these get added. SEA with mint, probably one of IND/CMH if either city gets added. Probably one of GUA/SAL (more likely GUA).
More frequencies on
LAX (5th flight), ORD, ATL, MSY, CHS, CLE, AUS
Upgauging on
RDU, RIC, BDL and DCA
No major cuts.
I'm operating under the assumption that BOS remains the primary growth center so growth at FLL is still subpar. Keep in mind, FLL has been more or less stagnant this past year due to Cuba/MEX cuts and BOS expansion.
From MCO, adding
SFO for 2021.
No other major changes outside of more upgauging to northeast market. I expect more A321s to DCA.
From SJU, no new routes. More frequencies + upgauging on existing routes.
From LA Basin, possible shift off LGB-JFK/BOS flights to SNA once A220 is available in sufficient quantities. Not sure if that's 2021 or 2022.
LGB survives another year while B6 waits for more gates at LAX.
And now for the large changes at BOS. Expect them to get close to 200 flights sometimes in 2020 and reach that in March 2021 at latest. Once they get there, announcement for BOS250 when they announce the schedule/destination of London flight along with the 4 new gates + access to E gates. They should reach close to 40% domestic market share by end of 2020.
New routes:
IND/CMH/STL/SDF/MEM - I expect one to two of these to be announced
BZN - Saturday service here in winter time
EYW - Saturday service here also in winter time with A220-300
PTP - Saturday service here in winter time
Cuts:
PSP - Can't see how this lasts much longer
Longer season for seasonals:
PDX - this goes year round with arrival of A220
SMF, OAK
More frequencies
EWR, PHL, ORD - I know they are already adding frequencies here for 2020, but more will be announced for 2021. I expect schedule to get closer to AA/UA on these routes. Shuttle like service to LGA, EWR, PHL, ORD and DCA.
LGA - big guess here, they get a couple of slots as part of divestiture from DL/WS JV and add those to fill up gaps on this shuttle to match AA schedule.
IAH, DFW - add 1 or 2 to both of these routes.
Aircraft changes
- more A321s for BOS-Florida/SJU/island markets
- all SFO flights become mint
- first A220 station will be AUS and BWI. This will be followed by PDX, MSY, ATL, MSP, BNA, IAH and DFW
More changes I hope to see.
- more mint flights that are of 16J variety. Maybe the mint 2.0 config can be used for JFK-LAX/SFO market.
- Shifting all the A321CEO to shorter flights like Northeast to Florida. Have longer flights operated by A321NEO to utilize the efficiency at longer range + having pantry in use.
juan885 wrote:Really confused about LGA-FLL/MCO going 2x daily in favor of BOS-LGA. Is a half empty E190 to BOS really more profitable than a full A321 to Florida?
nine4nine wrote:Does anyone know how many gates B6 will have once they move to the new Mid Field Concourse at LAX?
tphuang wrote:Alright, the rest of mint markets.
BOSSEA 2496 AS 90970 314.07 313.40 346.21 97.96% 175.8 550 94.07% 294.82 0.1181 99.63%
BOSSEA 2496 B6 51532 329.58 328.68 459.07 99.31% 159.0 360 90.03% 295.92 0.1186 100.00%
BOSSEA 2496 DL 72879 312.38 308.48 362.22 92.75% 160.1 481 94.67% 292.03 0.1170 98.68%
This is more good news for B6 and mint. This is the first quarter B6 had higher fares and yield than both AS and DL. This is also the highest yield I can remember they have ever generated here. I think this is a good evidence of mint slowly winning over ff on this route over AS especially. It wasn't that far back that AS dominated the yields here. We are going to see one extra flight from each carrier next summer. It's certainly doing well enough to support that.
tphuang wrote:Another market that's pretty constant YoY. This was also probably the highest yielding quarter here for a while. It seems like both AA/UA moved away from lie flat here toward the end of the quarter, which contributed to B6's large premium over them. Not really sure how much longer AS will last here. They are clearly not competitive at all.
This is quite interesting. As I said, tough quarter for FLL all the way around in overall yield. Q3 is normally the hardest quarter for South Florida and this Q3 was really bad. Note that B6 went up to 4x daily here. Looks like the market did have somewhat of a hard time absorbing that. Looking at AS's performance on FLL-LAX, it's no wonder they have made it seasonal.
tphuang wrote:Alright, the rest of mint markets.
BOSLAS 2381 B6 101597 259.73 259.52 339.46 99.73% 158.5 735 87.20% 226.31 0.0950 100.00%
BOSLAS 2381 DL 25703 267.76 263.72 316.74 92.37% 162.1 182 87.11% 229.74 0.0965 101.51%
I'm still a little disappointed to see that B6 has not surpassed DL in yield here. Generally, it does seem like mint hasn't achieved the premium yield here like it has in other markets.
adamh8297 wrote:tphuang wrote:Alright, the rest of mint markets.
BOSLAS 2381 B6 101597 259.73 259.52 339.46 99.73% 158.5 735 87.20% 226.31 0.0950 100.00%
BOSLAS 2381 DL 25703 267.76 263.72 316.74 92.37% 162.1 182 87.11% 229.74 0.0965 101.51%
I'm still a little disappointed to see that B6 has not surpassed DL in yield here. Generally, it does seem like mint hasn't achieved the premium yield here like it has in other markets.
Was NK On BOS-LAS in Q3-2019?
JoseSalazar wrote:Tphuang,
Do you think B6 would do a lot better on JFK-PHX and BOS-PHX if they had at least 2x daily, or otherwise had better timed flights? I’ve talked to a lot of people on AA flights from PHX-JFK who say they would rather fly on B6 but the times (primarily bc of the redeye) make it a nonstarter. Anecdotal, but I buy that. What do you think?
JoseSalazar wrote:Tphuang,
Do you think B6 would do a lot better on JFK-PHX and BOS-PHX if they had at least 2x daily, or otherwise had better timed flights? I’ve talked to a lot of people on AA flights from PHX-JFK who say they would rather fly on B6 but the times (primarily bc of the redeye) make it a nonstarter. Anecdotal, but I buy that. What do you think?
9/18/2019: UPDATE: Travel Advisory | Iranian Airspace: Codeshare Changes | 01OCT19-28JAN20 - B6EKIRAN19
**UPDATED 18SEP19** | ACTION REQUIRED**
Travel Advisory | Iranian Airspace: B6/EK Codeshare Changes
Background
JetBlue B6* Codeshare Flights Operated by Emirates EK:
Due to FAA airspace restrictions over Iran that prohibit U.S. flight/codeshare flight operations, a selection of JetBlue “B6*” codeshare flights, operated by Emirates “EK”, were originally suspended beginning on 24JUL19. This suspension has now been extended through January 28, 2020. JetBlue is removing impacted codeshare flights and fares from the GDS and travelers will need alternate routings.
Effective travel: October 1, 2019 through January 28, 2020
JetBlue and Emirates have cancelled impacted B6* flights and it is your responsibility to notify travelers and find an alternate option. Customer are not holding alternative space after our Schedule Change, and this is reflected in your PNR. Booking agents must notify travelers and service reservations and tickets per the guidelines below.
Waiver code: B6EKIRAN19
Impacted codeshare flights originate or terminate in: DFW, FLL, IAH, LAX, MCO, ORD, SEA and SFO.
Flights not impacted: BOS, EWR, JFK and IAD
B6* = Marketed by JetBlue, Operated by Emirates
bnatraveler wrote:This is not new, it has been in place since 01OCT19 and I am guessing that they are just now extending.
http://help.jetblue.com/SRVS/CGI-BIN/webisapi.dll?New,Kb=askBlue,case=obj(404345)#s21
9/18/2019: UPDATE: Travel Advisory | Iranian Airspace: Codeshare Changes | 01OCT19-28JAN20 - B6EKIRAN19
**UPDATED 18SEP19** | ACTION REQUIRED**
Travel Advisory | Iranian Airspace: B6/EK Codeshare Changes
Background
JetBlue B6* Codeshare Flights Operated by Emirates EK:
Due to FAA airspace restrictions over Iran that prohibit U.S. flight/codeshare flight operations, a selection of JetBlue “B6*” codeshare flights, operated by Emirates “EK”, were originally suspended beginning on 24JUL19. This suspension has now been extended through January 28, 2020. JetBlue is removing impacted codeshare flights and fares from the GDS and travelers will need alternate routings.
Effective travel: October 1, 2019 through January 28, 2020
JetBlue and Emirates have cancelled impacted B6* flights and it is your responsibility to notify travelers and find an alternate option. Customer are not holding alternative space after our Schedule Change, and this is reflected in your PNR. Booking agents must notify travelers and service reservations and tickets per the guidelines below.
Waiver code: B6EKIRAN19
Impacted codeshare flights originate or terminate in: DFW, FLL, IAH, LAX, MCO, ORD, SEA and SFO.
Flights not impacted: BOS, EWR, JFK and IAD
B6* = Marketed by JetBlue, Operated by Emirates
enilria wrote:If this was true it would not only impact JetBlue. It would prevent, for example, Delta from code sharing with KLM to DXB.
tphuang wrote:CityPair Dist Carrier Board AvgFare NSFare ConnFare % NS PerFlight Departures LF Yield PRASM Vs B6
BUFLAX 2218 B6 24116 244.92 243.68 307.49 98.06% 153.2 171 92.06% 224.34 0.1011 100.00%
BUF-LAX did surprisingly great in Q3.
MIflyer12 wrote:enilria wrote:If this was true it would not only impact JetBlue. It would prevent, for example, Delta from code sharing with KLM to DXB.
Why? Does KLM's flight to DXB not conform to FAA airspace restrictions?
flyiguy wrote:Per an inside source, Due to the Iran issues and FAA restrictions now, Jetblue will suspend all code share agreements with Emirates effective immediately. Sorry I just have an email from said person so no link.
FLY
jfklganyc wrote:JFK PHX had a daylight flight many years ago
To answer your question, Im sure they lose customers because of a garbage schedule to places like DEN and PHX.
The once a day redeye only works when they are the only game in town: SMF RNO etc. If you fly nonstop, you get a redeye
In places with plenty of nonstops, it makes them less desirable
Heard and ugly rumor about West Coast changes coming. We shall see what comes
Bluewho wrote:jfklganyc wrote:JFK PHX had a daylight flight many years ago
To answer your question, Im sure they lose customers because of a garbage schedule to places like DEN and PHX.
The once a day redeye only works when they are the only game in town: SMF RNO etc. If you fly nonstop, you get a redeye
In places with plenty of nonstops, it makes them less desirable
Heard and ugly rumor about West Coast changes coming. We shall see what comes
What’s the rumor?
ucdtim17 wrote:JoseSalazar wrote:Tphuang,
Do you think B6 would do a lot better on JFK-PHX and BOS-PHX if they had at least 2x daily, or otherwise had better timed flights? I’ve talked to a lot of people on AA flights from PHX-JFK who say they would rather fly on B6 but the times (primarily bc of the redeye) make it a nonstarter. Anecdotal, but I buy that. What do you think?
Also true for all their other redeye secondary west coast markets (PDX, SMF, OAK, SJC, etc). Not unique to PHX. No one likes redeyes.
catiii wrote:flyiguy wrote:Per an inside source, Due to the Iran issues and FAA restrictions now, Jetblue will suspend all code share agreements with Emirates effective immediately. Sorry I just have an email from said person so no link.
FLY
Categorically untrue. You have no source to even prove it because it’s false.
tphuang wrote:BUR continues to be the strongest performer among the non-mint transcons. Would be interesting to see if they would put mint here in the future considering that they are already scheduling in all-core A321NEOs here.
MCO transcon continues to be a huge bloodbath.
baje427 wrote:Any info on why JFK-BGI has been downsized to the A320 from the daily A321 seems especially strange for the winter season.
ryby92 wrote:baje427 wrote:Any info on why JFK-BGI has been downsized to the A320 from the daily A321 seems especially strange for the winter season.
Looks like a more evened out schedule. The red eye is operating daily now instead of 4xW returning back to JFK at 05:44 am. Also the third Saturday flight is discontinued.
So instead of 8 X A321 and 4 W A320 you now have 14 W A320. Roughly the same seat count.
Meanwhile FLL-BGI is reduced to 3W and retimed as a return back to FLL leaving BGI 5:55 PM instead of morning departure. Seems like they experimenting here.
dtw2hyd wrote:Finally realized no one can carry passenger and two bags for $100 RT and pickup connecting passengers dropped off by partner on a stormy day. Should have listened to Delta.
FAA restriction looks like a decent excuse. USDOT may ask B6 to reroute FlyAmerica passengers, but I doubt they will force to cancel all code-shares.
edealinfo wrote:Since this only applies to codeshare flights why can’t JetBlue and Rmirates convert the impacted routes to an inter line and operate business as usual?