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kiowa
Posts: 750
Joined: Wed Jun 08, 2011 12:37 am

Re: RUMOUR: JetBlue Suspends all Codeshare agreements with Emirates

Fri Jan 10, 2020 2:56 pm

enilria wrote:
dtw2hyd wrote:
Finally realized no one can carry passenger and two bags for $100 RT and pickup connecting passengers dropped off by partner on a stormy day. Should have listened to Delta.

FAA restriction looks like a decent excuse. USDOT may ask B6 to reroute FlyAmerica passengers, but I doubt they will force to cancel all code-shares.

This does not only affect B6 and is a federal govt directive related to the Iran mess. The headline is still inaccurate. PLEASE FIX THE HEADLINE.

>The U.S. Federal Aviation Administration said it was barring American pilots and carriers from flying in areas of Iraqi, Iranian and some Persian Gulf airspace. The agency warned of the “potential for miscalculation or mis-identification” for civilian aircraft amid heightened tensions between the U.S. and Iran.

https://time.com/5761084/faa-restricts- ... -missiles/


Stange wording.

What is an "American pilot"? Do they mean ones licenced by the FAA? The FAA has no authority over pilots with non-FAA licences. Also, aren't pilots from Peru or Bolivia also "American" pilots?
 
jeffh747
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Re: RUMOUR: JetBlue Suspends all Codeshare agreements with Emirates

Fri Jan 10, 2020 3:27 pm

Interesting, especially for the impact on EK's FLL flight. I would imagine the codeshare with B6 was a driving factor in their decision to come here instead of MIA. Without that, I wonder how many PNRs were affected and how the flight is doing with only EK pax.
ATR-72-600, A318 A319 A320 A320neo A321 A321neo A332 A333 B717 B727 B734 B73G B738 B739 B752 B762 B763 B772 B788 CRJ2 DHC6 DHC8-300 E145 E190 MD82 MD83 MD90 SF340B
 
splitterz
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Re: JetBlue Suspends all Codeshare agreements with Emirates

Fri Jan 10, 2020 3:29 pm

CriticalPoint wrote:
Good now maybe the US military and government contract can actually be awarded to an airline that actually flies international aircraft.

JetBlue winning that contract and “code sharing” the lift to Emirates was a complete joke.


Yep. Would like to see UA get back in there.
 
avi8
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Fri Jan 10, 2020 3:41 pm

Is there a specific time of year in which B6 announces new routes? Or do they just announce them on a case by case basis?

About FLL and the connections available, I’ve heard several people complain about the lack of them. Then again, gates are limited at FLL so I’m sure they’re doing their best.
avi8
 
baje427
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Fri Jan 10, 2020 3:45 pm

Caribbean FLL is competing with AA Caribbean MIA that is a tough battle there.
 
BunkerF16
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Fri Jan 10, 2020 4:14 pm

jfklganyc wrote:


Heard and ugly rumor about West Coast changes coming. We shall see what comes


Why do guys do this? Seriously. I have a secret. Have a great day folks. Either spill it, or don't even mention anything. It's not like you're safeguarding insider info. That's why they call it a RUMOR. SMH.
 
airbazar
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Re: RUMOUR: JetBlue Suspends all Codeshare agreements with Emirates

Fri Jan 10, 2020 4:19 pm

This is odd to say the least. First if this was mandated last year why are the codeshares still in place?
In addition, I just looked on flightaware at a sample of flights from before this new conflict started and all the flights to/from the U.S. East Coast which would be the ones more relevant to a B6 codeshare, overfly Iraq, not Iran. Even today they are traveling over Iraq. This would explain why the codeshare is/was still in place.

jeffh747 wrote:
Interesting, especially for the impact on EK's FLL flight. I would imagine the codeshare with B6 was a driving factor in their decision to come here instead of MIA. Without that, I wonder how many PNRs were affected and how the flight is doing with only EK pax.

At FLL? My understanding from previous discussions is that EK oesn't really do conx at FLL. Very few opportunities for that at FLL.
However, as I understand it this does not affect EK's codes on B6 flights. Only the other way around. You can still go on EK's website and buy a ticket DXB-FLL-JFK if you want.

Still nothing in the news about this and today's flights are still showing the codeshare.
 
MIAFLLPBIFlyer
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Re: RUMOUR: JetBlue Suspends all Codeshare agreements with Emirates

Fri Jan 10, 2020 4:30 pm

jeffh747 wrote:
Interesting, especially for the impact on EK's FLL flight. I would imagine the codeshare with B6 was a driving factor in their decision to come here instead of MIA. Without that, I wonder how many PNRs were affected and how the flight is doing with only EK pax.


EK will still offer many connections via FLL on B6 metal I assume. AUS-FLL-DXB, CUN-FLL-DXB etc. With an EK code. It'll impact B6 bookings to DXB. Tough to say right now if it makes any difference or not in terms of FLL connecting traffic. Most I assume book via EK.
 
BlueBaller
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Fri Jan 10, 2020 4:35 pm

BunkerF16 wrote:
jfklganyc wrote:


Heard and ugly rumor about West Coast changes coming. We shall see what comes


Why do guys do this? Seriously. I have a secret. Have a great day folks. Either spill it, or don't even mention anything. It's not like you're safeguarding insider info. That's why they call it a RUMOR. SMH.


^THIS x10. It's super corny. Half the purpose of internet forums is to give people reason to reasonably speculate.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: RUMOUR: JetBlue Suspends Codeshare agreements with Emirates over advisory areas.

Fri Jan 10, 2020 5:09 pm

Title edited to reflect scope of reduced codeshares.
Flu+Covid19 is bad. Consider a flu vaccine, if not for yourself, to protect someone you care about.
 
windian425
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Fri Jan 10, 2020 5:10 pm

Looks like not only BGI lost the A321; UVF and GND have both also been downgraded to A320's.
 
tphuang
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Fri Jan 10, 2020 5:14 pm

Now, some Boston data. Will start off with some of the largest markets.
CityPairDist Carrier Board AvgFare NSFare ConnFare% NS PerFlight Dep LF Yield PRASM Vs B6
BOSLGA 184 AA 129540 184.11 184.10 209.81 99.96% 099.2 1811 72.07% 132.68 0.7211 137.57%
BOSLGA 184 B6 48764 166.13 165.78 321.01 99.77% 100.1 0837 58.18% 096.45 0.5242 100.00%
BOSLGA 184 DL 152133 211.81 211.78 451.17 99.99% 091.0 2352 71.06% 150.49 0.8179 156.03%
Looks like their fares are up a bit. They are having trouble filling these flights. At close to $100 per passenger, this is probably breakeven mark. The yield gap vs AA/DL is basically unchanged from Q2. Shrunk 10% vs DL and increased 10% vs AA compared to a year ago. I doubt anything will change here until they go to 10x daily. At that point, they should become more competitive here.

BOSEWR 200 B6 57763 161.51 161.51 0.00 100.00% 100.2 0958 60.16% 097.16 0.4858 100.00%
BOSEWR 200 UA 214893 215.44 215.44 0.00 100.00% 152.4 1816 77.64% 167.27 0.8363 172.15%
Similar dynamics like LGA where they struggle to fill the flights. They are going up to 8x daily next summer. That might allow them to capture more higher yielding types. Although, I'm guessing UA fills a lot of the flights with connection. Not something B6 can compete against until they start flying to Europe. The yield gap with UA shrunk vs Q2 and increased slightly vs a year ago.

BOSJFK 187 AA 06769 180.84 180.84 0.00 100.00% 104.0 0128 50.83% 091.93 0.4916 68.38%
BOSJFK 187 B6 70934 188.59 186.59 352.41 98.80% 101.8 0967 72.05% 134.44 0.7189 100.00%
BOSJFK 187 DL 98127 179.72 179.72 0.00 100.00% 092.2 1348 78.99% 141.97 0.7592 105.60%
AA is basically out of the game here with less than 1 flight a day for the quarter. I'm assuming both B6/DL have a lot of connections here filling the cabins. Even with some ugly flight times, much healthier yield here for B6 vs LGA/EWR. performance is about the same vs a year ago and last quarter.

BOSDCA 399 AA 198970 171.94 171.85 256.38 99.89% 115.6 1952 88.21% 151.59 0.3799 119.49%
BOSDCA 399 B6 196831 156.94 156.91 327.00 99.98% 104.7 2326 80.85% 126.86 0.3179 100.00%
So this is the first quarter of result since B6 fully went to 15x daily on BOS-DCA. You can see they have actually surpassed AA here on the number of flights. This has depressed their yield quite a bit. The yield gap vs AA went up 10% YoY and 15% vs last quarter. Let's see how this goes. I think as time goes on and their improved schedule sinks in, their numbers will catch up to B6. In absolute numbers, their yield is about flat YoY and down vs Q2.

BOSPHL 280 AA 220929 181.46 181.14 328.98 99.78% 143.6 1857 82.84% 150.06 0.5359 131.28%
BOSPHL 280 B6 91840 148.85 148.85 0.00 100.00% 100.5 1190 76.80% 114.31 0.4082 100.00%
BOSPHL 280 DL 44248 126.63 126.63 0.00 100.00% 072.5 0889 68.62% 086.89 0.3103 76.01%
This is another bloodbath as a result of DL's entrance. AA has cut back a few flights vs a year ago and maintain their lead here. Since B6 added those 2 flights, they have seen the yield gap vs AA increase. DL is just completely uncompetitive here. They got even worse numbers here than last quarter. One of their worst numbers out of BOS. I'm anticipating when Q4 numbers are out, EWR/DCA/ORD will look almost as bad for DL.

BOSATL 946 B6 88709 138.21 137.94 269.06 99.79% 133.3 0812 81.99% 113.09 0.1195 100.00%
BOSATL 946 DL 386356 185.28 182.48 320.48 97.97% 191.2 2168 93.20% 170.08 0.1798 150.39%
Another bloodbath of quarte here. They did have more A320 here vs Q2, so the cost at least improved a little bit. The yield is unchanged vs Q2. The yield is up 30% vs a year ago, but they were using all A320s at that time. WN dropping out seems to have helped the overall yield here. Seeing how they are averaging 133 pax/flight, it's an obvious route to get A220s.

BOSMSP 1124 B6 68323 161.34 161.34 0.00 100.00% 156.3 0523 83.57% 134.84 0.1200 100.00%
BOSMSP 1124 DL 181095 222.87 219.30 399.92 98.02% 188.9 1021 93.90% 205.92 0.1832 152.71%
The number here actually looks not bad. They probably broke even here actually. Easily their best quarter since they entered. The yield is up 15% vs Q2 and 20% vs a year ago.

BOSDTW 632 B6 49606 173.17 173.17 0.00 100.00% 105.2 0572 82.41% 142.70 0.2258 100.00%
BOSDTW 632 DL 193789 200.25 198.58 362.98 98.98% 176.1 1211 90.85% 180.40 0.2854 126.42%
The nubmers here didn't look as good. The yield gap with DL increased over Q2 despite DL upgauging a little more here. They did add a 4th flight for part of the quarter. Maybe another case where as they increase capacity, there is some lag time before they capture higher yielding types.
 
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airportugal310
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Re: RUMOUR: JetBlue Suspends all Codeshare agreements with Emirates

Fri Jan 10, 2020 6:54 pm

kiowa wrote:
enilria wrote:
dtw2hyd wrote:
Finally realized no one can carry passenger and two bags for $100 RT and pickup connecting passengers dropped off by partner on a stormy day. Should have listened to Delta.

FAA restriction looks like a decent excuse. USDOT may ask B6 to reroute FlyAmerica passengers, but I doubt they will force to cancel all code-shares.

This does not only affect B6 and is a federal govt directive related to the Iran mess. The headline is still inaccurate. PLEASE FIX THE HEADLINE.

>The U.S. Federal Aviation Administration said it was barring American pilots and carriers from flying in areas of Iraqi, Iranian and some Persian Gulf airspace. The agency warned of the “potential for miscalculation or mis-identification” for civilian aircraft amid heightened tensions between the U.S. and Iran.

https://time.com/5761084/faa-restricts- ... -missiles/


Stange wording.

What is an "American pilot"? Do they mean ones licenced by the FAA? The FAA has no authority over pilots with non-FAA licences. Also, aren't pilots from Peru or Bolivia also "American" pilots?


Your're being pedantic for the sake of pedantry, and everyone knows it
“They bought their tickets, they knew what they were getting into. I say, let 'em crash.”
 
WayexTDI
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Re: RUMOUR: JetBlue Suspends all Codeshare agreements with Emirates

Fri Jan 10, 2020 7:06 pm

airportugal310 wrote:
kiowa wrote:
enilria wrote:
This does not only affect B6 and is a federal govt directive related to the Iran mess. The headline is still inaccurate. PLEASE FIX THE HEADLINE.

>The U.S. Federal Aviation Administration said it was barring American pilots and carriers from flying in areas of Iraqi, Iranian and some Persian Gulf airspace. The agency warned of the “potential for miscalculation or mis-identification” for civilian aircraft amid heightened tensions between the U.S. and Iran.

https://time.com/5761084/faa-restricts- ... -missiles/


Stange wording.

What is an "American pilot"? Do they mean ones licenced by the FAA? The FAA has no authority over pilots with non-FAA licences. Also, aren't pilots from Peru or Bolivia also "American" pilots?


Your're being pedantic for the sake of pedantry, and everyone knows it

Well, if/when the proverbial $h!t hits the fan, pedantry will play a critical role. So, no, Government Agencies need to be very specific when issuing such statements.
FYI, the FAA already does when they require candidate for jobs at the agency to be "US citizens" and not "American citizens".
 
Ziyulu
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Re: JetBlue Suspends all Codeshare agreements with Emirates

Fri Jan 10, 2020 7:09 pm

CriticalPoint wrote:
Good now maybe the US military and government contract can actually be awarded to an airline that actually flies international aircraft.

JetBlue winning that contract and “code sharing” the lift to Emirates was a complete joke.


What about United contract fares but codesharing with Air China?

What about Delta contract fares but codesharing wtih China Eastern?
 
nine4nine
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Fri Jan 10, 2020 7:27 pm

tphuang wrote:
Alright, some more non-premium transcons to look at.

First for the JFK ones
CityPair Dist Carrier Board AvgFare NSFare ConnFare % NS PerFlight Departures LF Yield PRASM Vs B6
JFKONT 2429 B6 23816 246.08 246.08 0.00 100.00% 150.0 170 93.40% 229.83 0.0946 100.00%
JFKBUR 2465 B6 44421 257.75 257.68 350.00 99.92% 150.1 323 91.64% 236.14 0.0958 100.00%
JFKLGB 2465 B6 45935 255.51 253.83 350.17 98.26% 150.0 339 90.33% 229.29 0.0930 100.00%
JFKPHX 2153 AA 116833 263.24 260.25 353.69 96.80% 170.0 770 89.25% 232.27 0.1079 124.41%
JFKPHX 2153 B6 23640 217.29 216.93 334.06 99.70% 150.1 183 86.06% 186.70 0.0867 100.00%
JFKPHX 2153 DL 65553 261.88 257.75 406.49 97.23% 171.7 429 89.01% 229.42 0.1066 122.88%
JFKSMF 2521 B6 33207 233.74 233.32 270.96 98.88% 200.0 183 90.73% 211.69 0.0840 100.00%
JFKSJC 2569 AS 26603 235.26 234.46 281.52 98.29% 160.0 182 91.33% 214.13 0.0834 105.63%
JFKSJC 2569 B6 24254 223.65 223.17 301.52 99.38% 150.0 178 90.84% 202.73 0.0789 100.00%
JFKSJC 2569 DL 29753 276.90 268.60 397.34 93.55% 180.0 182 90.84% 244.00 0.0950 120.36%
JFKOAK 2576 B6 22722 243.09 241.58 314.83 97.93% 150.1 169 89.55% 216.33 0.0840 100.00%
JFKRNO 2411 B6 21062 246.79 244.85 457.60 99.09% 150.0 160 87.76% 214.88 0.0891 100.00%
JFKPDX 2454 AS 28403 231.58 226.78 307.72 94.06% 170.9 182 91.32% 207.09 0.0844 104.89%
JFKPDX 2454 B6 23181 223.90 224.00 187.17 99.73% 150.3 175 88.14% 197.43 0.0805 100.00%
JFKPDX 2454 DL 73960 304.50 301.82 362.01 95.55% 179.8 445 92.43% 278.98 0.1137 141.31%
JFKSLC 1990 B6 48678 211.94 210.95 400.69 99.48% 151.3 363 88.65% 187.01 0.0940 100.00%
JFKSLC 1990 DL 134051 320.65 316.98 462.38 97.47% 182.8 809 90.66% 287.37 0.1444 153.66%

My thoughts are the JFK to secondary LA Basin market is going really well. Even ONT is showing very healthy yield. BUR continues to be the strongest performer among the non-mint transcons. Would be interesting to see if they would put mint here in the future considering that they are already scheduling in all-core A321NEOs here. SMF is another market that does really well considering that it got all-core A321 for all of Q3. It's a market that can support even more flight in summer time. Although, I doubt they would add more. PDX/SJC/PHX are all market they continue to struggle with in 3 way markets. Maybe they need a little more off-peak cuts in Sep/Oct. That second SLC flight seems to be going reasonable well given that this is the low season. RNO/OAK both did better than expected (definitely better than last year)

other ones
BOSBUR 2601 B6 12020 227.32 224.80 282.70 95.65% 158.7 87 87.05% 195.69 0.0752 100.00%
BOSLGB 2602 B6 25810 260.85 259.96 306.41 98.08% 152.9 183 92.24% 239.79 0.0922 100.00%
BOSPHX 2300 AA 113968 288.71 287.91 296.89 91.15% 177.0 695 92.63% 266.70 0.1160 129.99%
BOSPHX 2300 B6 25815 226.07 225.86 244.44 98.86% 156.1 182 90.84% 205.17 0.0892 100.00%
BOSSMF 2636 B6 17246 243.28 243.46 240.69 93.45% 158.5 120 90.66% 220.73 0.0837 100.00%
BOSSJC 2689 B6 22392 288.21 288.18 290.00 98.54% 150.4 167 89.13% 256.86 0.0955 100.00%
BOSSLC 2105 B6 23938 213.46 211.94 252.34 96.22% 158.6 163 92.58% 196.21 0.0932 100.00%
BOSSLC 2105 DL 78956 313.73 312.79 325.05 92.33% 190.6 444 93.28% 291.78 0.1386 148.71%
FLLLAS 2173 B6 24745 234.94 233.08 496.88 99.30% 153.8 182 88.43% 206.11 0.0948 100.00%
FLLLAS 2173 WN 19858 220.77 217.45 233.20 78.90% 156.4 141 90.05% 195.83 0.0901 95.01%
FLLSAN 2269 B6 21225 207.79 207.75 224.08 99.79% 152.0 159 87.80% 182.41 0.0804 100.00%
MCOLAX 2218 AA 97866 230.90 229.48 270.95 96.58% 189.8 567 90.96% 208.73 0.0941 125.18%
MCOLAX 2218 B6 17002 192.15 190.72 283.93 98.47% 156.8 124 87.43% 166.74 0.0752 100.00%
MCOLAX 2218 DL 89866 236.70 235.30 251.71 91.50% 190.8 506 93.09% 219.05 0.0988 131.37%
MCOLAX 2218 UA 39459 225.39 225.10 227.85 89.35% 156.4 282 89.48% 201.41 0.0908 120.79%
BUFLAX 2218 B6 24116 244.92 243.68 307.49 98.06% 153.2 171 92.06% 224.34 0.1011 100.00%
MCOSLC 1931 B6 21933 161.90 161.81 177.11 99.44% 150.1 167 87.47% 141.54 0.0733 100.00%
MCOSLC 1931 DL 82842 238.22 235.49 266.78 91.25% 196.8 451 93.35% 219.82 0.1138 155.30%
BOSPDX 2537 AS 54084 320.26 319.92 331.77 97.09% 162.2 365 91.35% 292.26 0.1152 123.52%
BOSPDX 2537 B6 40940 254.46 254.80 233.00 98.42% 158.6 278 92.86% 236.61 0.0933 100.00%
FLLSLC 2084 B6 21755 186.41 186.22 217.03 99.38% 155.8 166 84.13% 156.66 0.0752 100.00%
FLLSLC 2084 DL 25386 253.44 226.69 338.35 76.05% 160.4 179 88.40% 200.39 0.0962 127.91%

So BOS-SJC seems to be high performer here. That second flight makes a lot of sense. BOS-PHX continues to be a struggle in what is a low season. BOS-BUR numbers improved a little bit, but the numbers are still not great for a service that than 3x weekly.
Aside from BOS, FLL numbers as a whole just seem to be down this quarter. They did reasonably well against competition. Maybe on FLL-SLC, DL will move it to MIA at some point. MCO transcon continues to be a huge bloodbath. BUF-LAX did surprisingly great in Q3.




With the introduction of all-core 321N on the high performing BUR, I’d say it’s only a matter of time until this becomes a MINT station. There’s a lot of wealth and Hollywood/Entertainment industry in the area who use BUR so I’d imagine a premium offering would kill it especially on the JFK route.

Good to see BUR-BOS is gradually gaining traction. BUR has been a mostly west of the Rockies Regional route airport during its history so with many of these new transcon routes it takes time for word of mouth and People to find out there is an alternative to the east coast other than LAX. I’m sure with a little marketing and advertising around the LA area B6 can get word out.

DL has a commercial spot on Pandora radio promoting new ATL-ONT/BUR which is a nice little advert.
717, 727-100, 727-200, 732, 733, 734, 735, 73G, 738, 739, 742, 748, 752, 753, 762, 763, 772, 77W, 787-10, DC9, MD80/88/90, DC10, 319, 220-300, 320, 321, 321n, 332, 333, CS100, CRJ200, Q400, E175, E190, ERJ145, EMB120
 
727LOVER
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Fri Jan 10, 2020 7:36 pm

I'm very glad they are increasing JFK-SRQ and BOS-SRQ this winter. I know no one else cares....BUT I DO !
"We must accept finite disappointment, but never lose infinite hope." - Martin Luther King, Jr.
 
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TWA772LR
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Re: JetBlue Suspends all Codeshare agreements with Emirates

Fri Jan 10, 2020 7:54 pm

Ziyulu wrote:
CriticalPoint wrote:
Good now maybe the US military and government contract can actually be awarded to an airline that actually flies international aircraft.

JetBlue winning that contract and “code sharing” the lift to Emirates was a complete joke.


What about United contract fares but codesharing with Air China?

What about Delta contract fares but codesharing wtih China Eastern?

The US doesnt have a military presence in China so that's moot.
When wasn't America great?


The thoughts and opinions shared under this username are mine and are not influenced by my employer.
 
Ziyulu
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Re: JetBlue Suspends all Codeshare agreements with Emirates

Fri Jan 10, 2020 7:56 pm

TWA772LR wrote:
Ziyulu wrote:
CriticalPoint wrote:
Good now maybe the US military and government contract can actually be awarded to an airline that actually flies international aircraft.

JetBlue winning that contract and “code sharing” the lift to Emirates was a complete joke.


What about United contract fares but codesharing with Air China?

What about Delta contract fares but codesharing wtih China Eastern?

The US doesnt have a military presence in China so that's moot.


Are we talking about military here? I thought the discussion was about US carriers code sharing government contract flights?
 
dtw2hyd
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Re: RUMOUR: JetBlue Suspends Codeshare agreements with Emirates over advisory areas.

Fri Jan 10, 2020 8:01 pm

Any background on why this was issued in Oct '19. Waiver code B6EKIRAN19 is eerie to say the least.

Funny the US3-ME3 fight came around full circle. FDX/UPS and B6, all ME3 supporters are struggling with current restrictions.

When B6 got FlyAmerica, it didn't have any international flights unlike UA/DL.
All posts are just opinions.
 
airbazar
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Re: RUMOUR: JetBlue Suspends all Codeshare agreements with Emirates

Fri Jan 10, 2020 8:01 pm

MIAFLLPBIFlyer wrote:
jeffh747 wrote:
Interesting, especially for the impact on EK's FLL flight. I would imagine the codeshare with B6 was a driving factor in their decision to come here instead of MIA. Without that, I wonder how many PNRs were affected and how the flight is doing with only EK pax.


EK will still offer many connections via FLL on B6 metal I assume. AUS-FLL-DXB, CUN-FLL-DXB etc. With an EK code. It'll impact B6 bookings to DXB. Tough to say right now if it makes any difference or not in terms of FLL connecting traffic. Most I assume book via EK.


No they don't offer many connections via FLL.
EK doesn't codeshare with B6 to AUS and the DXB arrival misses the departure to CUN completely so not ideal. And even if a passenger would want to interline, that's a 6+ hour connection for AUS in both directions. Yuck! Instead they codeshare on JFK-CUN/AUS where conx are significantly better.
As discussed in the past, FLL is predominantly a O&D destination. Here are all the destinations that EK codeshares with B6 out of FLL: LAX, JFK, SFO, BOS, EWR, CUN, SJO, LIM, UIO. Leaving LAX, JFK, SFO, BOS, EWR aside because they serve those destinations, and CUN because an overnight is required, that leave only SJO, LIM, and UIO.
 
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TWA772LR
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Re: JetBlue Suspends all Codeshare agreements with Emirates

Fri Jan 10, 2020 8:05 pm

Ziyulu wrote:
TWA772LR wrote:
Ziyulu wrote:

What about United contract fares but codesharing with Air China?

What about Delta contract fares but codesharing wtih China Eastern?

The US doesnt have a military presence in China so that's moot.


Are we talking about military here? I thought the discussion was about US carriers code sharing government contract flights?

The main reason for UA having the government contracts was to take contractors, and I imagine some defence personnel, to bases in the Middle East like Kuwait (Camp Buering and others), Bahrain (sixth fleet), Qatar (Al Udeid), and the UAE (many bases). All of which were supporting the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and other operations in the region.

China doesnt have any US military presence or operations going on. The only possible government employees or contractors that would be travelling to China that I know of (I could be wrong, someone please correct me if I am) wouldn't be going much farther than the embassy or a consulate, which according to this http://china.usembassy-china.org.cn/ ,the only Chinese cities with US diplomatic missions that don't have flights to the US on US airlines are Wuhan and Shenyang, Guangzhou is served via Hong Kong for US3 air service.
When wasn't America great?


The thoughts and opinions shared under this username are mine and are not influenced by my employer.
 
Iggy500
Posts: 81
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Fri Jan 10, 2020 8:07 pm

B6 should start FLL-LIR. LIR only has service to the Miami area via MIA, and I believe there should be more options to Costa Rica. Maybe BOS-SJO could work as well.
 
Ziyulu
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Re: JetBlue Suspends all Codeshare agreements with Emirates

Fri Jan 10, 2020 8:09 pm

TWA772LR wrote:
Ziyulu wrote:
TWA772LR wrote:
The US doesnt have a military presence in China so that's moot.


Are we talking about military here? I thought the discussion was about US carriers code sharing government contract flights?

The main reason for UA having the government contracts was to take contractors, and I imagine some defence personnel, to bases in the Middle East like Kuwait (Camp Buering and others), Bahrain (sixth fleet), Qatar (Al Udeid), and the UAE (many bases). All of which were supporting the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and other operations in the region.

China doesnt have any US military presence or operations going on. The only possible government employees or contractors that would be travelling to China that I know of (I could be wrong, someone please correct me if I am) wouldn't be going much farther than the embassy or a consulate, which according to this http://china.usembassy-china.org.cn/ ,the only Chinese cities with US diplomatic missions that don't have flights to the US on US airlines are Wuhan and Shenyang, Guangzhou is served via Hong Kong for US3 air service.


I'm a US government worker and I've taken a government contract airfare from LAX to PVG with a DL flight number, but it was operated by MU. How is that any different than a B6 flight operated by EK?
 
nine4nine
Posts: 619
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Fri Jan 10, 2020 8:11 pm

Iggy500 wrote:
B6 should start FLL-LIR. LIR only has service to the Miami area via MIA, and I believe there should be more options to Costa Rica. Maybe BOS-SJO could work as well.


Or LAX-LIR for us wave shredding surfers in so-cal. AS is usually pretty high priced and DL only runs seasonally.
717, 727-100, 727-200, 732, 733, 734, 735, 73G, 738, 739, 742, 748, 752, 753, 762, 763, 772, 77W, 787-10, DC9, MD80/88/90, DC10, 319, 220-300, 320, 321, 321n, 332, 333, CS100, CRJ200, Q400, E175, E190, ERJ145, EMB120
 
jetbluefan1
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Fri Jan 10, 2020 8:16 pm

tphuang wrote:
Now, some Boston data. Will start off with some of the largest markets.
CityPairDist Carrier Board AvgFare NSFare ConnFare% NS PerFlight Dep LF Yield PRASM Vs B6
BOSLGA 184 AA 129540 184.11 184.10 209.81 99.96% 099.2 1811 72.07% 132.68 0.7211 137.57%
BOSLGA 184 B6 48764 166.13 165.78 321.01 99.77% 100.1 0837 58.18% 096.45 0.5242 100.00%
BOSLGA 184 DL 152133 211.81 211.78 451.17 99.99% 091.0 2352 71.06% 150.49 0.8179 156.03%
Looks like their fares are up a bit. They are having trouble filling these flights. At close to $100 per passenger, this is probably breakeven mark. The yield gap vs AA/DL is basically unchanged from Q2. Shrunk 10% vs DL and increased 10% vs AA compared to a year ago. I doubt anything will change here until they go to 10x daily. At that point, they should become more competitive here.

BOSEWR 200 B6 57763 161.51 161.51 0.00 100.00% 100.2 0958 60.16% 097.16 0.4858 100.00%
BOSEWR 200 UA 214893 215.44 215.44 0.00 100.00% 152.4 1816 77.64% 167.27 0.8363 172.15%
Similar dynamics like LGA where they struggle to fill the flights. They are going up to 8x daily next summer. That might allow them to capture more higher yielding types. Although, I'm guessing UA fills a lot of the flights with connection. Not something B6 can compete against until they start flying to Europe. The yield gap with UA shrunk vs Q2 and increased slightly vs a year ago.

BOSJFK 187 AA 06769 180.84 180.84 0.00 100.00% 104.0 0128 50.83% 091.93 0.4916 68.38%
BOSJFK 187 B6 70934 188.59 186.59 352.41 98.80% 101.8 0967 72.05% 134.44 0.7189 100.00%
BOSJFK 187 DL 98127 179.72 179.72 0.00 100.00% 092.2 1348 78.99% 141.97 0.7592 105.60%
AA is basically out of the game here with less than 1 flight a day for the quarter. I'm assuming both B6/DL have a lot of connections here filling the cabins. Even with some ugly flight times, much healthier yield here for B6 vs LGA/EWR. performance is about the same vs a year ago and last quarter.

BOSDCA 399 AA 198970 171.94 171.85 256.38 99.89% 115.6 1952 88.21% 151.59 0.3799 119.49%
BOSDCA 399 B6 196831 156.94 156.91 327.00 99.98% 104.7 2326 80.85% 126.86 0.3179 100.00%
So this is the first quarter of result since B6 fully went to 15x daily on BOS-DCA. You can see they have actually surpassed AA here on the number of flights. This has depressed their yield quite a bit. The yield gap vs AA went up 10% YoY and 15% vs last quarter. Let's see how this goes. I think as time goes on and their improved schedule sinks in, their numbers will catch up to B6. In absolute numbers, their yield is about flat YoY and down vs Q2.

BOSPHL 280 AA 220929 181.46 181.14 328.98 99.78% 143.6 1857 82.84% 150.06 0.5359 131.28%
BOSPHL 280 B6 91840 148.85 148.85 0.00 100.00% 100.5 1190 76.80% 114.31 0.4082 100.00%
BOSPHL 280 DL 44248 126.63 126.63 0.00 100.00% 072.5 0889 68.62% 086.89 0.3103 76.01%
This is another bloodbath as a result of DL's entrance. AA has cut back a few flights vs a year ago and maintain their lead here. Since B6 added those 2 flights, they have seen the yield gap vs AA increase. DL is just completely uncompetitive here. They got even worse numbers here than last quarter. One of their worst numbers out of BOS. I'm anticipating when Q4 numbers are out, EWR/DCA/ORD will look almost as bad for DL.

BOSATL 946 B6 88709 138.21 137.94 269.06 99.79% 133.3 0812 81.99% 113.09 0.1195 100.00%
BOSATL 946 DL 386356 185.28 182.48 320.48 97.97% 191.2 2168 93.20% 170.08 0.1798 150.39%
Another bloodbath of quarte here. They did have more A320 here vs Q2, so the cost at least improved a little bit. The yield is unchanged vs Q2. The yield is up 30% vs a year ago, but they were using all A320s at that time. WN dropping out seems to have helped the overall yield here. Seeing how they are averaging 133 pax/flight, it's an obvious route to get A220s.

BOSMSP 1124 B6 68323 161.34 161.34 0.00 100.00% 156.3 0523 83.57% 134.84 0.1200 100.00%
BOSMSP 1124 DL 181095 222.87 219.30 399.92 98.02% 188.9 1021 93.90% 205.92 0.1832 152.71%
The number here actually looks not bad. They probably broke even here actually. Easily their best quarter since they entered. The yield is up 15% vs Q2 and 20% vs a year ago.

BOSDTW 632 B6 49606 173.17 173.17 0.00 100.00% 105.2 0572 82.41% 142.70 0.2258 100.00%
BOSDTW 632 DL 193789 200.25 198.58 362.98 98.98% 176.1 1211 90.85% 180.40 0.2854 126.42%
The nubmers here didn't look as good. The yield gap with DL increased over Q2 despite DL upgauging a little more here. They did add a 4th flight for part of the quarter. Maybe another case where as they increase capacity, there is some lag time before they capture higher yielding types.


Thanks! Lots of great info here.

I took a look at the figures you posted in Q3 last year and compared them to this year, and found some interesting tidbits. Also consider that in Q3, RASM decreased by .9%, so any market above this actually outperformed system (and anything below underperformed).

Mint:

-All markets other than BOSLAS (-3%), BOSSAN (-5%), and FLLLAX (-7.5%) outperformed system. BOSSEA, JFKSEA, and BOSSFO all posted gains of 23%, which is really impressive.
-BOSSFO is the highest yielding Mint market, which is especially intriguing since just a couple years ago it was getting pummeled. I also think that the 6th frequency on an All-Core A321 started in Q3, which makes these figures even more fascinating.
-Even though BOSSAN saw a decrease in yield, I believe the third frequency was operating without Mint (at least part of the quarter), so with this in mind I assume the market is incredibly profitable. No wonder they are going to 4x next summer.
-JFKLAX went up to an 11th awfully timed frequency for a portion of the quarter, yet still maintained flat yield, which is a good sign of strength.
-BOSLAX, FLLSFO, and JFKLAS also posted double digit growth.
-I'm actually surprised that FLLLAX didn't see a bigger drop in yield. That fourth frequency that operated for part of the quarter was so terribly timed, and yet it didn't drag down yields all that much.

Non-Mint:
I'll hold off on doing a full analysis until you post the remaining data, but some tidbits so far on BOS:

-It looks like the downgauge of some flights to the E190 on BOSATL has paid off, with a 29% increase. I'm not sure if that's enough to offset the higher CASM though.....this market needs the A220, stat.
-BOSBUR yield increased 142%, but it's still under performing other BOS transcon markets.
-BOSDCA is flat despite the increase to 14x, which is a great sign.
-BOSDTW also saw an increase of 4% despite the 4th frequency.
-BOSMSP seems to finally be turning a corner, with yields up 21%.
-BOSPHL at -13% is turning into a bloodbth.
-BOSPHX (+15%) and BOSSJC (+12%) are earning their daytime transcon flights next summer.
 
kiowa
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Re: RUMOUR: JetBlue Suspends all Codeshare agreements with Emirates

Fri Jan 10, 2020 8:21 pm

airportugal310 wrote:
kiowa wrote:
enilria wrote:
This does not only affect B6 and is a federal govt directive related to the Iran mess. The headline is still inaccurate. PLEASE FIX THE HEADLINE.

>The U.S. Federal Aviation Administration said it was barring American pilots and carriers from flying in areas of Iraqi, Iranian and some Persian Gulf airspace. The agency warned of the “potential for miscalculation or mis-identification” for civilian aircraft amid heightened tensions between the U.S. and Iran.

https://time.com/5761084/faa-restricts- ... -missiles/


Stange wording.

What is an "American pilot"? Do they mean ones licenced by the FAA? The FAA has no authority over pilots with non-FAA licences. Also, aren't pilots from Peru or Bolivia also "American" pilots?


Your're being pedantic for the sake of pedantry, and everyone knows it


Are you saying that the government does not have to be precise or accountable in their laws and decrees? Perhaps a job in congress is in your future.

The point is that the FAA only has authority in the US and with FAA licences, not all pilots from the US. They would love the authority and would do a fine job with it like they did with their oversight of the Max production. yes, sarcasm.
 
MIAFLLPBIFlyer
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Re: RUMOUR: JetBlue Suspends all Codeshare agreements with Emirates

Fri Jan 10, 2020 8:35 pm

airbazar wrote:
MIAFLLPBIFlyer wrote:
jeffh747 wrote:
Interesting, especially for the impact on EK's FLL flight. I would imagine the codeshare with B6 was a driving factor in their decision to come here instead of MIA. Without that, I wonder how many PNRs were affected and how the flight is doing with only EK pax.


EK will still offer many connections via FLL on B6 metal I assume. AUS-FLL-DXB, CUN-FLL-DXB etc. With an EK code. It'll impact B6 bookings to DXB. Tough to say right now if it makes any difference or not in terms of FLL connecting traffic. Most I assume book via EK.


No they don't offer many connections via FLL.
EK doesn't codeshare with B6 to AUS and the DXB arrival misses the departure to CUN completely so not ideal. And even if a passenger would want to interline, that's a 6+ hour connection for AUS in both directions. Yuck! Instead they codeshare on JFK-CUN/AUS where conx are significantly better.
As discussed in the past, FLL is predominantly a O&D destination. Here are all the destinations that EK codeshares with B6 out of FLL: LAX, JFK, SFO, BOS, EWR, CUN, SJO, LIM, UIO. Leaving LAX, JFK, SFO, BOS, EWR aside because they serve those destinations, and CUN because an overnight is required, that leave only SJO, LIM, and UIO.


Thanks for this - I see minimal effect then. I know in the South Asian community down here EK from FLL and QR from MIA have become popular choices. That community ss entirely O&D.
 
jplatts
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Fri Jan 10, 2020 9:06 pm

tphuang wrote:
BOSDCA 399 AA 198970 171.94 171.85 256.38 99.89% 115.6 1952 88.21% 151.59 0.3799 119.49%
BOSDCA 399 B6 196831 156.94 156.91 327.00 99.98% 104.7 2326 80.85% 126.86 0.3179 100.00%
So this is the first quarter of result since B6 fully went to 15x daily on BOS-DCA. You can see they have actually surpassed AA here on the number of flights. This has depressed their yield quite a bit. The yield gap vs AA went up 10% YoY and 15% vs last quarter. Let's see how this goes. I think as time goes on and their improved schedule sinks in, their numbers will catch up to B6. In absolute numbers, their yield is about flat YoY and down vs Q2.


Could you please post BOS-BWI and BOS-IAD data as there are some travelers in the DC area who travel on the WN BWI-BOS or UA IAD-BOS nonstop flights?

Similarly, an analysis of some of other markets need to include additional airports, including
  • MDW in addition or ORD in the Chicago market
  • DAL in addition to DFW in the Dallas/Fort Worth market
  • HOU in addition to IAH in the Houston market
  • BUR, LGB, SNA, and ONT in addition to LAX in the Los Angeles market
  • MIA in addition to FLL in the Miami/Fort Lauderdale market
  • OAK and SJC in addition to SFO in the San Francisco Bay Area market
  • PAE in addition to SEA in the Seattle market
 
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enilria
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Re: RUMOUR: JetBlue Suspends all Codeshare agreements with Emirates

Fri Jan 10, 2020 9:43 pm

airbazar wrote:
This is odd to say the least. First if this was mandated last year why are the codeshares still in place?
In addition, I just looked on flightaware at a sample of flights from before this new conflict started and all the flights to/from the U.S. East Coast which would be the ones more relevant to a B6 codeshare, overfly Iraq, not Iran. Even today they are traveling over Iraq. This would explain why the codeshare is/was still in place.

jeffh747 wrote:
Interesting, especially for the impact on EK's FLL flight. I would imagine the codeshare with B6 was a driving factor in their decision to come here instead of MIA. Without that, I wonder how many PNRs were affected and how the flight is doing with only EK pax.

At FLL? My understanding from previous discussions is that EK oesn't really do conx at FLL. Very few opportunities for that at FLL.
However, as I understand it this does not affect EK's codes on B6 flights. Only the other way around. You can still go on EK's website and buy a ticket DXB-FLL-JFK if you want.

Still nothing in the news about this and today's flights are still showing the codeshare.

This went into effect the night of the missile attack. I’m not aware if there was an earlier restriction on non-code share.
 
arfbool
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sat Jan 11, 2020 12:13 am

phllax wrote:
tphuang wrote:
BUR continues to be the strongest performer among the non-mint transcons. Would be interesting to see if they would put mint here in the future considering that they are already scheduling in all-core A321NEOs here.

MCO transcon continues to be a huge bloodbath.


The neo only operated 3 times in December to BUR due to erraneous paperwork in Burbank regarding the ramp. They had done work this summer on A7-9 to strengthen the ramp to be able to accomodate the 321 and 900's down on that end, but the airport authority forgot to update their paperwork that it was completed. In addition, the daylight 2358/2359 flights didn't operate from mid-December until today (1/9) with the exception of 1/2. That is the flight that the neo is operating on. 358/359 continue to be a 320.


As for MCO-LAX, the main problem is the timing of the LAX-MCO leg, not leaving LAX until after 4pm. It makes for a brutal arrival in MCO, not getting to a home or hotel until after midnight.


I think I see double A321 into Burbank starting on 1/15 (single A321 on 1/14 on 359) per FR24. I believe it should be neo in all cases.

Image
 
phllax
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sat Jan 11, 2020 7:49 am

nine4nine wrote:
With the introduction of all-core 321N on the high performing BUR, I’d say it’s only a matter of time until this becomes a MINT station. There’s a lot of wealth and Hollywood/Entertainment industry in the area who use BUR so I’d imagine a premium offering would kill it especially on the JFK route.

Good to see BUR-BOS is gradually gaining traction. BUR has been a mostly west of the Rockies Regional route airport during its history so with many of these new transcon routes it takes time for word of mouth and People to find out there is an alternative to the east coast other than LAX. I’m sure with a little marketing and advertising around the LA area B6 can get word out.

DL has a commercial spot on Pandora radio promoting new ATL-ONT/BUR which is a nice little advert.


Unless they put Mint in a NEO, we won’t see it, as the CEO cannot get to JFK non-stop due to possible engine out on the climb and the surrounding terrain as well as the short runway.

In the past 18 months BUR has gotten back ATL, DFW, and MDW flights, started BNA, BOS, HOU, return of AA mainline to PHX, NK to LAS, and more consistent UA mainline to DEN. All the growth has not been without issues as terminal at times is like stuffing 10 pounds of shit in a 5 pound bag. Hopefully the new one will be built as promised. It will have the same number of gates 14, but all gates will be able to handle up to 737-900/321 sized airplanes.
 
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jfklganyc
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sat Jan 11, 2020 1:20 pm

321 at BUR needs to be a NEO

BUR has done well with them

I wonder if the 321 NEO will finally allow them to start a nonstop STT JFK and BOS

It is a glaring hole in their network

Im surprised no one has discussed this. The CEOs couldnt get off the runway (climb gradient) with the fuel load needed for JFK and BOS

This has been 737/757 territory
 
tphuang
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sat Jan 11, 2020 1:45 pm

Let's see how the all-core A321NEOs do at BUR. BUR normally performs well in Q2/Q3, but struggles in Q1. I'm not sure it makes sense to do mint at BUR when they could just beef up their schedule at LAX. EWR-LAX seems like a better option for mint than JFK-BUR. Seems like with the secondary LA airports, you need to wait for sometimes for people to notice that there is service there from east coast and use them. If BOS-BUR turns around even more, maybe they can try MCO-BUR. I wouldn't try FLL to secondary LA airport again. FLL-LGB numbers were so terrible.

Yes, SRQ is a very profitable station. That's why they are adding to it while they cut a similarly small station in DAB last year.

Would there be demand for LAX-SJU?
Maybe A220 to for JFK/BOS-STT? A lot of possibilities with A220.
 
arfbool
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sat Jan 11, 2020 6:42 pm

I'm curious now so I'm clicking through the Jetblue website looking at the JFK-BUR flights. (Someone out there has a better way to do this) and bam! here's a core A321CEO on March 8th!

Image
 
tphuang
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sun Jan 12, 2020 6:12 pm

From OAG thread this week
B6 BDL-RSW MAR 2>1.0[1.0] APR 1.9>0.9[1.0]
B6 BOS-EWR APR 7>6[5]
B6 FLL-LAX MAR 4>3[3]
B6 FLL-NAS MAR 4>3[5] APR 4>3[5]
B6 JFK-LAX MAR 9>10[10]
B6 JFK-RSW MAR 4>5[3] APR 4>5[3]


These are really last minute cuts to be added to JFK. Which indicates those cut markets are having difficulties with the added capacity. Of course, they can always run those same flights out of JFK and make money. I'm a little concerned about these last minute cuts at FLL. Seems like the Q3/4 weakness has extended to Q1. Not a good sign.

It's a good thing that AA is not using about 40 slots, because the reduced capacity has been great for B6 margins out of JFK.
 
tphuang
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Mon Jan 13, 2020 2:18 pm

More BOS numbers from Q3. I think you will see that a lot of the markets where they upgauged or added flights suffered in the yield department a little bit. Overall still an okay quarter for them at BOS, but it does take sometime for the added capacity to be absorbed. At lot of these markets are now more settled vs when DL first entered. Which is not a good sign for DL at those continued low yield level.

CityPairDist Carrier Board AvgFare NSFare ConnFare% NS PerFlight Dep LF Yield PRASM Vs B6
BOSAUS 1698 B6 28406 215.37 215.13 245.18 99.23% 152.2 0225 82.93% 178.40 0.1051 100.00%
BOSAUS 1698 DL 21649 239.59 228.73 277.39 77.68% 157.2 0156 88.27% 201.91 0.1189 113.17%
BOSAUS 1698 WN 24918 222.31 216.43 261.04 86.82% 161.3 0175 88.28% 191.07 0.1125 107.10%

This is the first results from B6 adding to AUS. Keep in mind that they added the extra flight in September, a low traffic month. You can see the noticeably lower LF than DL/WN here. Keep in mind they are normally the yield leader here by quite a bit. This is a pretty large drop for them in yield from Q2. They even dropped vs last Q3 when both DL/WN both improved here. So this market was adjusting even to that one extra flight from B6. Would be interesting to see how market adjusts to 4 additional flighs next year. Hard not to expect a huge bloodbath here. I continue to expect the first A220 to operate here at some point.

BOSBWI 369 B6 74462 146.03 146.03 0.00 100.00% 100.2 0958 77.56% 113.27 0.3070 100.00%
BOSBWI 369 WN 197987 141.55 141.55 0.00 100.00% 147.7 1579 84.92% 120.20 0.3257 106.12%
Another not great quarter here for B6. There yield is down Vs Q2 and about flat vs a year ago. They did run more flight here than a year ago. Maybe thats why they reverted to 5x daily for S20. Seems like an obvious A220 route.

BOSBUF 395 B6 66135 145.00 144.65 272.06 99.73% 100.3 0820 80.44% 116.36 0.2946 100.00%
BOSBUF 395 DL 22954 118.31 115.97 203.35 97.32% 072.5 0420 75.40% 087.44 0.2214 75.15%
Compared to previous quarters, this was actually a decent quarter for B6 here. Q3 is normally the strongest quarter for this route. Their yield gap vs DL increased vs Q2 and vs a year go. It continues to amaze me DL sticks around on this route that just bleeds cash for them.

BOSCHS 818 B6 42512 166.84 165.92 220.02 98.31% 132.9 0389 82.26% 136.49 0.1669 100.00%
BOSCHS 818 DL 11560 177.97 167.50 275.97 90.35% 070.5 0191 85.81% 143.73 0.1757 105.31%
It seems like they did more upgauging here vs Q2 and a year ago. Probably contriubted to the lower LF here. Their yield is down vs a year ago probably due to the higher capacity and more A320s here. DL had higher yield here for the first time. Seems like an A220 route here given the mix of A320/E90 that they use here.

BOSCLT 728 AA 228620 201.74 200.20 281.32 98.10% 161.6 1564 90.46% 181.10 0.2488 128.21%
BOSCLT 728 B6 43454 170.43 170.39 234.88 99.94% 100.6 0521 82.90% 141.25 0.1940 100.00%
This looks to be the first quarter they ran 3x daily through the whole quarter. Their yield is down vs Q2 and a year ago. The yield gap vs AA increased. Again, I would imagine as they go up to 5x daily for Q3, it will be tough on the yield at least in the short term.

BOSORD 867 AA 224709 184.48 183.34 219.06 96.81% 164.3 1521 89.91% 164.85 0.1901 119.52%
BOSORD 867 B6 72081 164.59 164.54 296.08 99.97% 101.0 0851 83.83% 137.93 0.1591 100.00%
BOSORD 867 UA 229329 197.79 196.00 351.04 98.85% 166.0 1563 88.37% 173.20 0.1998 125.57%
This is the most flight they've had in a quarter but with lower capacity than last Q3. Capacity and # of flights are up over Q2. The yield gap vs AA/UA is about the same vs a year ago, but the overall yield is up. As they continue to add flight on this route, should be more low yield here next year to adjust to that and DL's entrance. Good news is that AA seem to be reducing capacity vs previous years. This is another market where A220 would really help them compete here against the large single aisle costs.

BOSCLE 563 B6 48674 162.97 162.97 0.00 100.00% 100.0 0556 87.54% 142.67 0.2534 100.00%
BOSCLE 563 DL 29119 167.67 166.12 190.50 93.65% 075.9 0442 86.76% 144.13 0.2560 101.03%
So the dynamic here seems to be unchanged vs Q2. B6's yield here is about the same as last year. It looks like a market that can absorb the additional flight B6 has scheduled in.

BOSDEN 1754 B6 57201 226.93 226.93 228.94 99.85% 175.9 0361 90.08% 204.42 0.1165 100.00%
BOSDEN 1754 UA 148208 295.18 296.73 264.87 95.11% 180.2 0870 94.52% 280.47 0.1599 137.20%
BOSDEN 1754 WN 67931 234.13 232.26 265.09 94.31% 161.9 0463 90.60% 210.43 0.1200 102.94%
They actually had a good quarter here, which is probably why they are scheduling in another flight. The additional capacity of the one A321 has now been absorbed by the market. Yield is down vs last year, but the lower cost of A321 should even that out.

BOSDFW 1562 AA 191087 278.67 276.17 320.58 94.36% 170.0 1229 91.45% 252.54 0.1617 151.97%
BOSDFW 1562 B6 45548 187.05 187.05 0.00 100.00% 150.8 0340 88.84% 166.18 0.1064 100.00%
They did about as well here as last year and down a little vs Q2. Another route I think should switch to A220 to allow for additional frequencies.

BOSRSW 1249 B6 69999 174.18 173.89 207.63 99.15% 193.6 0413 87.54% 152.22 0.1219
Numbers are what you would expect in low season. They don't really have competition here in Q3. The heavy usage of A321s without lowering yield vs a year ago is a good sign for the margins.

BOSJAX 1010 B6 43790 144.44 143.38 198.15 98.07% 100.6 0525 82.94% 118.91 0.1177 100.00%
BOSJAX 1010 DL 24212 155.86 151.12 236.29 94.43% 072.8 0445 74.71% 112.90 0.1118 94.94%
Another route where there is just too much capacity in Q3. The yield gap vs DL is same as last year and a little less than Q2. Overal yield is down vs Q2. They are going to all A320s here in Q4 to lower cost. We will see how it goes. DL's yield seems unsustinable on RJ for this long of a route. I don't know what they are still doing here.

BOSHOU 1609 B6 23300 178.45 178.45 0.00 100.00% 150.0 0183 84.88% 151.47 0.0941 100.00%
BOSHOU 1609 WN 26934 212.92 211.38 220.97 83.95% 159.1 0193 87.72% 185.43 0.1152 122.42%
Another tough quarter to HOU. I can't wait to see how IAH looks after this.

BOSMCO 1121 B6 152789 166.98 166.72 195.29 99.10% 189.8 0943 85.37% 142.32 0.1270 100.00%
BOSMCO 1121 DL 77626 161.76 160.55 181.76 94.28% 172.8 0508 88.46% 142.01 0.1267 99.78%
This is about the same as a year ago but down vs Q2. Again, really heavy A321 usage here to lower the cost. Interesitng enough, DL is also upgauging here.

BOSFLL 1237 B6 109277 188.24 187.36 223.88 97.61% 154.4 0802 88.22% 165.30 0.1336 100.00%
BOSFLL 1237 DL 28063 171.24 166.01 201.30 85.16% 174.5 0179 89.83% 149.12 0.1206 90.22%
They really need to upgauge on this route. No reason to not have more A321s here.

BOSBNA 942 B6 53720 149.97 149.88 349.50 99.96% 155.1 0398 87.05% 130.47 0.1385 100.00%
BOSBNA 942 DL 36679 169.91 167.86 233.03 96.86% 071.0 0625 82.68% 138.80 0.1473 106.38%
BOSBNA 942 WN 76343 152.19 150.92 184.62 96.23% 155.1 0567 86.79% 130.98 0.1390 100.39%
The yield is down a little bit vs last year as all 3 carriers added capacity here. The yield gap vs the extremely high cost DL RJ shrunk a little bit. Another route that might swap out for A220s.

BOSMSY 1368 B6 30251 175.03 174.91 285.33 99.89% 156.3 0235 82.34% 144.03 0.1053
Again, low season for this highly leisure flight. They've finally moved off E90 here. Yield down vs a year ago.

BOSPIT 496 B6 82687 146.08 146.08 0.00 100.00% 100.8 1065 77.03% 112.52 0.2269 100.00%
BOSPIT 496 DL 35746 133.20 131.86 177.88 97.09% 071.1 0729 68.93% 090.89 0.1833 80.78%
Another route where I have no clue what DL is still doing. Yield is down slightly vs a year ago and yield gap is the same. Vs Q2, yield is unchanged but yield gap increased a little bit. I see B6 cutting a flight here as they swap in A320 to lower cost in S20.

BOSRDU 612 B6 89051 159.37 159.36 183.27 99.96% 100.3 1117 79.51% 126.70 0.2070 100.00%
BOSRDU 612 DL 84012 160.86 160.26 343.19 99.67% 105.1 0978 81.70% 130.93 0.2139 103.33%
They had quite a bit more flight here than DL in Q3. DL responded with more upgauging. So both airlines had about the same capacity increase. Yield is down vs a year ago. The yield gap is unchanged vs last quarter and a year ago, but DL did have more mainline here to counter B6's added flights.

BOSRIC 474 B6 59638 152.45 152.45 0.00 100.00% 100.2 0703 84.63% 129.02 0.2722 100.00%
BOSRIC 474 DL 24841 152.88 152.88 0.00 100.00% 069.8 0481 74.00% 113.14 0.2387 87.69%
Another market that doesn't seem to be changing too much. Their yield is about same as Q2 and up vs a year ago. Yield gap vs DL increased over Q2 and a year ago.

BOSTPA 1185 B6 87870 158.98 158.79 213.01 99.64% 144.2 0671 90.82% 144.22 0.1217 100.00%
BOSTPA 1185 DL 61373 155.92 153.99 216.41 96.91% 161.0 0427 89.27% 137.46 0.1160 95.32%
An okay quarter here. Yield about the same as last year and lower than Q2. Yield gap vs DL shrunk vs a year ago. Another route they are adding A321s in busy season to lower cost.
 
tphuang
Posts: 5209
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Mon Jan 13, 2020 10:25 pm

The December traffic report is out. Again, RASM number not looking great, down 2.7% YoY for Q4. Now, part of that is the high completion% and the other part of that is the upgauging (passenger per flight up close to 6% YoY) and longer stage length(up 4%). They would probably need to be on the absolute low end of the -1.0 to 1.0% cost guidance to make up for the weak RASM numbers.
http://otp.investis.com/clients/us/jetb ... wsid=64894
 
Runway28L
Posts: 2095
Joined: Wed Sep 20, 2017 7:35 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Tue Jan 14, 2020 12:03 am

tphuang wrote:
BOSPIT 496 B6 82687 146.08 146.08 0.00 100.00% 100.8 1065 77.03% 112.52 0.2269 100.00%
BOSPIT 496 DL 35746 133.20 131.86 177.88 97.09% 071.1 0729 68.93% 090.89 0.1833 80.78%
Another route where I have no clue what DL is still doing. Yield is down slightly vs a year ago and yield gap is the same. Vs Q2, yield is unchanged but yield gap increased a little bit. I see B6 cutting a flight here as they swap in A320 to lower cost in S20.

Took full advantage of that $51 fare JetBlue was offering back in late-July for the Christmas Eve outbound from PIT. :spin:

The A320 (especially the Phase 2 version) will be greatly welcomed as the E190 I flew back on the return a few weeks ago was in very rough shape.
 
tphuang
Posts: 5209
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Tue Jan 14, 2020 4:41 pm

alright, looks like AA is making somewhat of a comeback at BOS.

Of the 3 routes they are adding, RDU is going to become a gigantic bloodbath like AUS. IND is probably going to take B6 out of going there for a while. ILM should have no impact. Also, looks like G4 is adding some weeklies to places B6 is unlikely to serve anytime soon. Generally, G4/F9 adding flights to places where B6 does not serve is good news, since that will take away some connection passengers from one of the legacies.

On the whole, I think B6 should think quickly about where it wants to go next. CMH/STL/SDF/MKE/MEM are all markets with plenty of room for them to enter. CVG too if they really want to take a hammer at DL margins at BOS. I don't think there is any reason for them to intentionally get into another bloodbath at IND. At some point, they need to switch from this strategy of beefing up existing markets back to entering new market. It's been over a year since they've announced a new market out of BOS.
 
trueblew
Posts: 148
Joined: Thu Nov 15, 2018 10:16 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Tue Jan 14, 2020 4:43 pm

Runway28L wrote:
tphuang wrote:
BOSPIT 496 B6 82687 146.08 146.08 0.00 100.00% 100.8 1065 77.03% 112.52 0.2269 100.00%
BOSPIT 496 DL 35746 133.20 131.86 177.88 97.09% 071.1 0729 68.93% 090.89 0.1833 80.78%
Another route where I have no clue what DL is still doing. Yield is down slightly vs a year ago and yield gap is the same. Vs Q2, yield is unchanged but yield gap increased a little bit. I see B6 cutting a flight here as they swap in A320 to lower cost in S20.

Took full advantage of that $51 fare JetBlue was offering back in late-July for the Christmas Eve outbound from PIT. :spin:

The A320 (especially the Phase 2 version) will be greatly welcomed as the E190 I flew back on the return a few weeks ago was in very rough shape.


Most of the E190s I've been on recently are in similar shape. It makes you wonder what their plan is for those interiors since a good number of frames will remain in service for many years to come. The status quo is unacceptable, especially as the Phase 2 frames continue to proliferate and show a major contrast.
 
jplatts
Posts: 3613
Joined: Sat Mar 18, 2017 6:42 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Tue Jan 14, 2020 5:09 pm

tphuang wrote:
CVG too if they really want to take a hammer at DL margins at BOS.


B6 adding CVG-JFK nonstop service might also be a possibility if B6 enters the CVG market with F9 no longer serving the NYC market nonstop from CVG.

In addition to CVG-BOS or CVG-JFK, B6 adding CVG-FLL nonstop service might also be a possibility if B6 enters the CVG market with B6 already serving FLL nonstop from ORD and CLE in the Midwest.
 
RL757PVD
Posts: 3194
Joined: Fri Dec 03, 1999 2:47 am

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Tue Jan 14, 2020 5:25 pm

With increased competition in BOS (on multiple fronts now) and a decreasing RASM, how many new fights is B6 going to be able to reasonably take on for BOS? Do they have a plan or is it London or bust still?
Experience is what you get when what you thought would work out didn't!
 
tphuang
Posts: 5209
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Tue Jan 14, 2020 7:41 pm

RL757PVD wrote:
With increased competition in BOS (on multiple fronts now) and a decreasing RASM, how many new fights is B6 going to be able to reasonably take on for BOS? Do they have a plan or is it London or bust still?


they should be able to reach 200 target quite easily by March of 2021 based on what they've announced so far. Beyond that, I think peak 250 is quite reasonable target for 2025. That would be about 10 new flights a year from 2021 to 2025. By then, Terminal E expansion will be all done, XLR and A220 would be all delivered. Probably need to wait a couple of more years if they can get more gates to expand beyond that. I don't know if the terminal or runway will allow for expansion past that.

On the existing markets they are in, they can probably add another 15 to 20 flights. There will be maybe 15 TATL flights and probably another 10 to 20 for new non-TATL markets. I wouldn't be surprised if they hit 40% domestic market share by this fall. 45% domestic market share is probably a reasonable medium term goal.

A lot could change in 2 or 3 years. Maybe we have a large recession and everyone starts to cut back at BOS. Maybe B6 will be able to get even more gates from that. Maybe they will chose to focus building out other focus cities. I certainly don't think it's out of question that their continued expansion will cause such yield weakness at BOS that other airlines will start to cut back, which would open up space at B or E.
 
RL757PVD
Posts: 3194
Joined: Fri Dec 03, 1999 2:47 am

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Tue Jan 14, 2020 7:46 pm

tphuang wrote:
RL757PVD wrote:
With increased competition in BOS (on multiple fronts now) and a decreasing RASM, how many new fights is B6 going to be able to reasonably take on for BOS? Do they have a plan or is it London or bust still?


they should be able to reach 200 target quite easily by March of 2021 based on what they've announced so far. Beyond that, I think peak 250 is quite reasonable target for 2025. That would be about 10 new flights a year from 2021 to 2025. By then, Terminal E expansion will be all done, XLR and A220 would be all delivered. Probably need to wait a couple of more years if they can get more gates to expand beyond that. I don't know if the terminal or runway will allow for expansion past that.

On the existing markets they are in, they can probably add another 15 to 20 flights. There will be maybe 15 TATL flights and probably another 10 to 20 for new non-TATL markets. I wouldn't be surprised if they hit 40% domestic market share by this fall. 45% domestic market share is probably a reasonable medium term goal.

A lot could change in 2 or 3 years. Maybe we have a large recession and everyone starts to cut back at BOS. Maybe B6 will be able to get even more gates from that. Maybe they will chose to focus building out other focus cities. I certainly don't think it's out of question that their continued expansion will cause such yield weakness at BOS that other airlines will start to cut back, which would open up space at B or E.


Sure they can physically do it, but I was more referring to, can they do it and still post numbers that are acceptable to Wall Street, specially compared to what DL just posted.
Experience is what you get when what you thought would work out didn't!
 
tphuang
Posts: 5209
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Tue Jan 14, 2020 8:03 pm

RL757PVD wrote:
tphuang wrote:
RL757PVD wrote:
With increased competition in BOS (on multiple fronts now) and a decreasing RASM, how many new fights is B6 going to be able to reasonably take on for BOS? Do they have a plan or is it London or bust still?


they should be able to reach 200 target quite easily by March of 2021 based on what they've announced so far. Beyond that, I think peak 250 is quite reasonable target for 2025. That would be about 10 new flights a year from 2021 to 2025. By then, Terminal E expansion will be all done, XLR and A220 would be all delivered. Probably need to wait a couple of more years if they can get more gates to expand beyond that. I don't know if the terminal or runway will allow for expansion past that.

On the existing markets they are in, they can probably add another 15 to 20 flights. There will be maybe 15 TATL flights and probably another 10 to 20 for new non-TATL markets. I wouldn't be surprised if they hit 40% domestic market share by this fall. 45% domestic market share is probably a reasonable medium term goal.

A lot could change in 2 or 3 years. Maybe we have a large recession and everyone starts to cut back at BOS. Maybe B6 will be able to get even more gates from that. Maybe they will chose to focus building out other focus cities. I certainly don't think it's out of question that their continued expansion will cause such yield weakness at BOS that other airlines will start to cut back, which would open up space at B or E.


Sure they can physically do it, but I was more referring to, can they do it and still post numbers that are acceptable to Wall Street, specially compared to what DL just posted.


I think with their recent moves, B6 has shown their fully committed to totally build out BOS. There is little room for them to grow at NYC outside of upgauging and maybe a few more flights at EWR. Florida right now looks like a basket case with all the ULCC pressure there. All that A321s and A220s coming in have to go somewhere and the most logical place is BOS.

You will notice that even with the headline revenue increases for DL, their margin only increased a little bit YoY due to 15% lower fuel prices. B6's yield has gone down due to pressures at BOS/FLL. But it has also declined due to upgauging, more seats to A320s and longer stage length. All of the latter factors should lower their CASM quite a bit. If they also see 15% lower fuel prices, it would be hard for me to imagine their margins not improve over last year. With more A321NEOs and A220 coming in starting next year, their CASM is about to fall off the cliff in a good way. The A220s is a huge game changer for them. And same with A321XLR.

And if margin numbers don't look good, expect Cuba, MCO transcons and LGB to be cut before they stop growing BOS.

It seems like in recent month, BOS has actually been shrinking rather than expanding domestically. That just shows with the current yield pressure, they have the opportunity to really build up their operations. They just need to keep their cost in control and not mess up entering Europe.
 
flyby519
Posts: 1570
Joined: Tue Jul 24, 2007 3:31 am

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Tue Jan 14, 2020 10:02 pm

tphuang wrote:
RL757PVD wrote:
tphuang wrote:

they should be able to reach 200 target quite easily by March of 2021 based on what they've announced so far. Beyond that, I think peak 250 is quite reasonable target for 2025. That would be about 10 new flights a year from 2021 to 2025. By then, Terminal E expansion will be all done, XLR and A220 would be all delivered. Probably need to wait a couple of more years if they can get more gates to expand beyond that. I don't know if the terminal or runway will allow for expansion past that.

On the existing markets they are in, they can probably add another 15 to 20 flights. There will be maybe 15 TATL flights and probably another 10 to 20 for new non-TATL markets. I wouldn't be surprised if they hit 40% domestic market share by this fall. 45% domestic market share is probably a reasonable medium term goal.

A lot could change in 2 or 3 years. Maybe we have a large recession and everyone starts to cut back at BOS. Maybe B6 will be able to get even more gates from that. Maybe they will chose to focus building out other focus cities. I certainly don't think it's out of question that their continued expansion will cause such yield weakness at BOS that other airlines will start to cut back, which would open up space at B or E.


Sure they can physically do it, but I was more referring to, can they do it and still post numbers that are acceptable to Wall Street, specially compared to what DL just posted.


I think with their recent moves, B6 has shown their fully committed to totally build out BOS. There is little room for them to grow at NYC outside of upgauging and maybe a few more flights at EWR. Florida right now looks like a basket case with all the ULCC pressure there. All that A321s and A220s coming in have to go somewhere and the most logical place is BOS.

You will notice that even with the headline revenue increases for DL, their margin only increased a little bit YoY due to 15% lower fuel prices. B6's yield has gone down due to pressures at BOS/FLL. But it has also declined due to upgauging, more seats to A320s and longer stage length. All of the latter factors should lower their CASM quite a bit. If they also see 15% lower fuel prices, it would be hard for me to imagine their margins not improve over last year. With more A321NEOs and A220 coming in starting next year, their CASM is about to fall off the cliff in a good way. The A220s is a huge game changer for them. And same with A321XLR.

And if margin numbers don't look good, expect Cuba, MCO transcons and LGB to be cut before they stop growing BOS.

It seems like in recent month, BOS has actually been shrinking rather than expanding domestically. That just shows with the current yield pressure, they have the opportunity to really build up their operations. They just need to keep their cost in control and not mess up entering Europe.


Do you think B6 will hit their $2.50-$3.00 EPS target for 2020?
 
tphuang
Posts: 5209
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Tue Jan 14, 2020 10:07 pm

That is way beyond my expertise. I wouldn't be investing in any airlines stocks. That's for sure.
 
tphuang
Posts: 5209
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Thu Jan 16, 2020 2:01 am

Looks like long beach might be on the chopping block. Maybe the news will come out as early as Thursday?

https://paxex.aero/2020/01/jetblue-long ... -city-cut/

I will post the LGB numbers soon. Let's just say as a whole, things aren't getting any better.
 
CaptCoolHand
Posts: 94
Joined: Mon Oct 22, 2018 12:24 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Thu Jan 16, 2020 2:48 am

Yea. Rumors flying about the demise of LGB and moving ops to lax.

All rumor now.
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