jfklganyc wrote:

Heard and ugly rumor about West Coast changes coming. We shall see what comes

Looks like we will find out tomorrow...

Yeh, sorry to the people effected

Hopefully they bump up LAX to keep the base

What a mess

To recap:

This day was always coming

The relationship between the city and the airline was just toxic...Im not sure why as they were the largest employer at the airport in a city that needs large employers

This forum and Long Beach are about to find out what demand for those slots is, particularly from WN

I suspect, down the road, this whole mess will be looked on with regret by the City Council. They will have a beautiful new terminal and a lot less passengers to pay for it

on a separate topic, while we wait for the LGB news.

https://leehamnews.com/2020/01/16/air-c ... ice-today/
Interesting that we now have AC confirming the economics of A220-300. It's said that
"Air Canada configures the -300 with 137 passengers in business and coach classes. The typical two-class configuration for the A320neo is about 156 seats. The 737-8’s typical configuration is about 172 seats.

Still, Scherer said the seat mile costs of the -300 are up to 5% better than these two airplanes. The trip costs are 7%-10% better, he said on the sidelines of the event.

I had calculated that 140 seat A220-300 would be about 2 to 3% better in CASM than 162 seat A320NEO based on comments made by B6. And now AC is saying 137 seat A220-300 is up to 5% better than 156 A320NEO. If A220-500 is available, it will be quite the CASM monster. B6 really should jump on this aircraft while slots are still available.

Here is the LGB numbers from Q3 in light of the recent news. I'm posting all the routes here
CityPair Dist Carrier Board AvgFare NSFare ConnFare % NS PerFlight # Flights LF Yield PRASM Vs B6
LGBSFO 354 B6 34156 114.85 114.85 000.00 100.00% 150.5 328 69.17% 79.44 0.2244 100.00%
LGBOAK 353 B6 47111 109.06 109.06 000.00 100.00% 151.1 408 76.39% 83.32 0.2360 100.00%
LGBOAK 353 WN 93938 104.99 104.93 175.16 99.92% 151.4 749 82.85% 86.94 0.2463 104.34%
LGBSJC 324 B6 31956 101.73 101.73 000.00 100.00% 150.0 368 57.89% 58.90 0.1818 100.00%
LGBSJC 324 WN 54944 090.26 090.06 285.00 99.90% 143.0 698 55.05% 49.58 0.1530 84.18%
LGBSMF 387 B6 41662 094.29 094.29 000.00 100.00% 150.0 368 75.47% 71.16 0.1839 100.00%
LGBSMF 387 WN 87835 099.72 099.66 141.59 99.86% 147.9 728 81.56% 81.29 0.2101 114.23%
LGBLAS 231 B6 66092 101.75 101.75 000.00 100.00% 152.9 531 81.42% 82.84 0.3586 100.00%
LGBLAS 231 WN 63052 086.34 086.34 000.00 100.00% 143.9 546 80.23% 69.27 0.2999 83.61%
LGBSEA 965 B6 48185 154.86 154.86 000.00 100.00% 150.0 366 87.77% 135.92 0.1409 100.00%
LGBPDX 846 B6 25009 138.19 138.19 000.00 100.00% 150.0 183 91.11% 125.90 0.1488 100.00%
LGBRNO 402 B6 23248 146.21 146.21 000.00 100.00% 152.9 184 82.62% 120.79 0.3005 100.00%
LGBSLC 588 B6 68508 117.84 117.84 000.00 100.00% 151.2 515 88.00% 103.70 0.1764 100.00%
LGBSLC 588 CP 5345 129.17 129.17 000.00 100.00% 076.0 78 90.21% 116.53 0.1982 112.37%
LGBSLC 588 OO 45524 160.19 160.19 000.00 100.00% 075.3 657 92.02% 147.41 0.2507 142.15%
LGBAUS 1226 B6 23949 158.68 158.68 000.00 100.00% 150.0 184 86.77% 137.69 0.1123 100.00%
LGBPHX 355 YV 33332 179.61 179.61 000.00 100.00% 077.7 510 84.06% 150.98 0.4253 N/A
LGBDEN 854 WN 21543 136.14 135.64 153.41 97.16% 143.3 184 81.68% 110.78 0.1297 N/A
LGBBZN 904 B6 4569 152.09 152.09 000.00 100.00% 150.0 36 84.61% 128.69 0.1424 100.00%

From what I can see, SJC was far and away the worst. OAK/SFO are about equally terrible, but SFO gets kept around due to general weakness of OAK station. SMF was the 2nd worst. LAS was not that bad. SEA did pretty well and same with PDX. RNO did pretyt well. SLC was okay. AUS was not great. BZN did pretty well in summer time.

I also posted the other carriers here including WN at DEN. That's a route without any competition for WN and the yields are horrendous. We will see what WN does here. If they think LGB is some magic replacement for SNA or even a compliment to BUR, they are way off he mark.

So if they are going down to 15 flights, I think it will be cut the 2x OAK, 2x SJC, 2x SMF and 1 off LAS. Everything else is okay and unlikely to face additional WN competition outside of maybe one more flight to LAS. Given BZN's better number in summer time, I think they should at least try seasonal 2x weekly to JFK and BOS.

Also, I read that OAK is cut, which is not too surprising. It's the lowest performing station to JFK and BOS. To me, that's an even bigger news than LGB reduction. That's a lot of airtime freed up.

JFK-GUA 1x daily starting June
JFK-BNA 2x daily in April

I'm surprised no one has posted this yet. Maybe folks have been distracted by the LGB cuts.

http://otp.investis.com/clients/us/jetb ... wsid=64947

* LGB cuts and discontinuation of OAK confirmed.
* New daily red-eye service from JFK to GUA.
* Seasonal service from JFK & BOS to BZN.
* JFK-BNA added at twice-daily.
* JFK-HAV dropping to weekly on Saturday.
* Unspecified future additions at BOS/JFK/FLL/MCO.

full news release on what happened today.
http://otp.investis.com/clients/us/jetb ... wsid=64947

interesting how many of predictions have already happened here.

tphuang wrote:

My predictions for this year (announcements, not necessarily start in 2020).

From JFK -
GUA/UIO/SAL - Looks like GUA is a done deal already. SAL I think will get announced also. UIO is a little iffy. Not sure if high altitude will allow this to happen. If they add these, then their Latin America VFR network out of JFK is complete.
BNA - I'm going to predict again that JFK-BNA will get added this year with 2 flights.
BZN - Another route I think will be enabled by A220. Once a week in winter time.

Possible cuts to fund this and the European flights
HAV - why is this still daily? Should be made 1x per week on Saturday.

looks like Cuba down to 3x daily to FLL and 1x weekly to JFK. About the right amount of capacity. Maybe they can lose another flight to HAV from FLL. I assume BOS/MCO-HAV are done.

BZN got way more capacity than I expected.

JetBlue also today announced it is expanding its successful service at Montana’s Bozeman Yellowstone International Airport (BZN) with flights to and from the east coast. New nonstop service from New York-JFK and Boston Logan International Airport (BOS) will operate on both a summer seasonal and winter seasonal schedule starting in June. New York flights will operate three times weekly or up to daily at various times throughout the seasons. Boston flights will operate twice weekly on Saturdays and Wednesdays. Schedule dates for the winter season will be announced as part of our next schedule extensions for the period.

GUA schedule looks like your typical VFR schedule with low quality slots.

Daily Beginning June 1, 2020
JFK - GUA Flight #625
7:00 p.m. – 10:15 p.m.

GUA - JFK Flight #628
11:25 p.m. – 6:00 a.m. (+1)

BNA got some much higher quality slots. I'm surprised this got announced so close to start date

JFK - BNA Flight #1073
8:00 a.m. – 9:39 a.m.

BNA - JFK Flight #1074
10:25 a.m. – 1:48 p.m.

JFK - BNA Flight #983
4:40 p.m. – 6:19 p.m.

BNA - JFK Flight #978
7:05 p.m. – 10:28 p.m.

These others parts are curious. I'm curious to see where these additional changes are. I guess we will find out with OAG

To enable the new city, multi-route expansions and frequency additions, JetBlue will redeploy aircraft by adding flights on some existing routes and reducing flights on others that are not meeting expectations.

Throughout 2020, JetBlue will increase flights on more than a half dozen popular routes during peak travel periods in New York, Boston, Fort Lauderdale, Orlando and Latin America and the Caribbean.
Effective April 29, 2020, JetBlue will end service at Oakland International Airport (OAK) where it currently serves New York-JFK, Boston and Long Beach. JetBlue will continue to serve Bay Area travelers from airports in San Francisco and San Jose. In addition, JetBlue will reduce or eliminate flights on a half dozen short-haul routes in Long Beach as well as additional flights from Fort Lauderdale and Orlando.

tough, not sure what they are trimming from FLL. It has already seen a lot of cuts from daily to 3x weekly. Same with MCO.

ScottB wrote:

I'm surprised no one has posted this yet. Maybe folks have been distracted by the LGB cuts.

http://otp.investis.com/clients/us/jetb ... wsid=64947

* LGB cuts and discontinuation of OAK confirmed.
* New daily red-eye service from JFK to GUA.
* Seasonal service from JFK & BOS to BZN.
* JFK-BNA added at twice-daily.
* JFK-HAV dropping to weekly on Saturday.
* Unspecified future additions at BOS/JFK/FLL/MCO.

That BZN flight will be great for me if it is still around in summer 2021.

So far, the flights I've been looking at from GUA aren't necessarily cheap. Around 750$ round trip JFK-GUA in the middle of June and July.

For LGB, I have heard that UA, DL, AS, and WN are trying to steal some slots that B6 gave up. B6 might actually think about closing their LGB hub. This can only happen if:

UA adds LGB-SFO. I don't know why B6 is the only carrier flying this route.
AS adds LGB-SEA/PDX. AS has served LGB in the past, so it could be possible.
DL adds LGB-SEA, and upgauge their current LGB routes. I saw that one of their LGB-SLC flights are using B738s and A319s.
WN adds more routes and frequencies from LGB.

I personally think that the LGB era for B6 is coming to an end, but what do you guys think? Will B6 continue to hold on to LGB, or will they close LGB for good?

They are also raising the price of the first checked bag from $30 to $35 and the second checked bag from $40 to $45.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/01/16/business ... index.html

tphuang wrote:

full news release on what happened today.
http://otp.investis.com/clients/us/jetb ... wsid=64947

interesting how many of predictions have already happened here.

tphuang wrote:

My predictions for this year (announcements, not necessarily start in 2020).

From JFK -
GUA/UIO/SAL - Looks like GUA is a done deal already. SAL I think will get announced also. UIO is a little iffy. Not sure if high altitude will allow this to happen. If they add these, then their Latin America VFR network out of JFK is complete.
BNA - I'm going to predict again that JFK-BNA will get added this year with 2 flights.
BZN - Another route I think will be enabled by A220. Once a week in winter time.

Possible cuts to fund this and the European flights
HAV - why is this still daily? Should be made 1x per week on Saturday.

looks like Cuba down to 3x daily to FLL and 1x weekly to JFK. About the right amount of capacity. Maybe they can lose another flight to HAV from FLL. I assume BOS/MCO-HAV are done.

BZN got way more capacity than I expected.

JetBlue also today announced it is expanding its successful service at Montana’s Bozeman Yellowstone International Airport (BZN) with flights to and from the east coast. New nonstop service from New York-JFK and Boston Logan International Airport (BOS) will operate on both a summer seasonal and winter seasonal schedule starting in June. New York flights will operate three times weekly or up to daily at various times throughout the seasons. Boston flights will operate twice weekly on Saturdays and Wednesdays. Schedule dates for the winter season will be announced as part of our next schedule extensions for the period.

GUA schedule looks like your typical VFR schedule with low quality slots.

Daily Beginning June 1, 2020
JFK - GUA Flight #625
7:00 p.m. – 10:15 p.m.

GUA - JFK Flight #628
11:25 p.m. – 6:00 a.m. (+1)

BNA got some much higher quality slots. I'm surprised this got announced so close to start date

JFK - BNA Flight #1073
8:00 a.m. – 9:39 a.m.

BNA - JFK Flight #1074
10:25 a.m. – 1:48 p.m.

JFK - BNA Flight #983
4:40 p.m. – 6:19 p.m.

BNA - JFK Flight #978
7:05 p.m. – 10:28 p.m.

These others parts are curious. I'm curious to see where these additional changes are. I guess we will find out with OAG

To enable the new city, multi-route expansions and frequency additions, JetBlue will redeploy aircraft by adding flights on some existing routes and reducing flights on others that are not meeting expectations.

Throughout 2020, JetBlue will increase flights on more than a half dozen popular routes during peak travel periods in New York, Boston, Fort Lauderdale, Orlando and Latin America and the Caribbean.
Effective April 29, 2020, JetBlue will end service at Oakland International Airport (OAK) where it currently serves New York-JFK, Boston and Long Beach. JetBlue will continue to serve Bay Area travelers from airports in San Francisco and San Jose. In addition, JetBlue will reduce or eliminate flights on a half dozen short-haul routes in Long Beach as well as additional flights from Fort Lauderdale and Orlando.

tough, not sure what they are trimming from FLL. It has already seen a lot of cuts from daily to 3x weekly. Same with MCO.

They're dropping BGI/STI from FLL and HAV/PAP from MCO.

https://thepointsguy.com/news/jetblue-o ... e-shakeup/

Sucks to see FLL-BGI go. Back to going out of MIA on AA.

Iggy500 wrote:

For LGB, I have heard that UA, DL, AS, and WN are trying to steal some slots that B6 gave up. B6 might actually think about closing their LGB hub. This can only happen if:

UA adds LGB-SFO. I don't know why B6 is the only carrier flying this route.
AS adds LGB-SEA/PDX. AS has served LGB in the past, so it could be possible.
DL adds LGB-SEA, and upgauge their current LGB routes. I saw that one of their LGB-SLC flights are using B738s and A319s.
WN adds more routes and frequencies from LGB.

I personally think that the LGB era for B6 is coming to an end, but what do you guys think? Will B6 continue to hold
on to LGB, or will they close LGB for good?

UA and AS I doubt and that is probably just a rumor and nothing more. I cannot think AS would even attempt a 4th try at LGB. UA has LAX and SNA pretty SFO saturated and if B6 can’t full planes why would they be interested in a half full flight at best and no yields.

So let's see. Out of JFK.
BNA is basically replacing CLT.
GUA is basically replacing MEX.
GEO is basically replace HAV.
BZN is replacing OAK.

The first two should do well. Not sure if there is enough demand in NYC for daily service to BZN in the peak month. That seems a little aggressive. A very high fare market that will become low fare if they don't advertise it. In Q2, it was only 70 PDEW. There is definitely potentially a lot more demand than that to yellowstone park from new yorkers in summer time. The arrival time from BZN really stinks though. B6 loves those red-eye flights.

Let's see what else gets additions. Slots for peak season has to be pretty tight.

Out of BOS, my guess is that more additions are coming that has yet to be announced. They must be planning something in response to AA's adds. If I had to guess, most of the aircraft time will get redeployed to BOS.

The FLL cuts are tough, but probably predictable. The STI/BGI loads were always below 70%. MCO-PAP was also always below 70%. Not a surprise that got cut.

I'm surprised not a bigger deal was made out of closing OAK.

avi8 wrote:

So far, the flights I've been looking at from GUA aren't necessarily cheap. Around 750$ round trip JFK-GUA in the middle of June and July.

they don't need to price it low when they have a monopoly from JFK and there is enough demand in the tri-state area. If they can't fill the planes in the peak summer season, the prices will drop.

Just waiting to see if SAL gets added now. B6 loves these JFK VFR flights that make money without using good slots.

tphuang wrote:

Just waiting to see if SAL gets added now. B6 loves these JFK VFR flights that make money without using good slots.

Interesting thought, considering all the refurbishments are being done there too. Might be a good way to get planes in and out and get some revenue rather than ferry flights each way to FLL

Iggy500 wrote:

For LGB, I have heard that UA, DL, AS, and WN are trying to steal some slots that B6 gave up. B6 might actually think about closing their LGB hub. This can only happen if:

UA adds LGB-SFO. I don't know why B6 is the only carrier flying this route.
AS adds LGB-SEA/PDX. AS has served LGB in the past, so it could be possible.
DL adds LGB-SEA, and upgauge their current LGB routes. I saw that one of their LGB-SLC flights are using B738s and A319s.
WN adds more routes and frequencies from LGB.

I personally think that the LGB era for B6 is coming to an end, but what do you guys think? Will B6 continue to hold on to LGB, or will they close LGB for good?

From the LGB airport the only airlines on the waiting list for more slots are Southwest,Delta and Hawaiian.
Hawaiian has passed on the last two times slots were available.
DL still isn't fully using its last round of slots awarded.

Flyguy

wnflyguy wrote:

Iggy500 wrote:

For LGB, I have heard that UA, DL, AS, and WN are trying to steal some slots that B6 gave up. B6 might actually think about closing their LGB hub. This can only happen if:

UA adds LGB-SFO. I don't know why B6 is the only carrier flying this route.
AS adds LGB-SEA/PDX. AS has served LGB in the past, so it could be possible.
DL adds LGB-SEA, and upgauge their current LGB routes. I saw that one of their LGB-SLC flights are using B738s and A319s.
WN adds more routes and frequencies from LGB.

I personally think that the LGB era for B6 is coming to an end, but what do you guys think? Will B6 continue to hold on to LGB, or will they close LGB for good?

From the LGB airport the only airlines on the waiting list for more slots are Southwest,Delta and Hawaiian.
Hawaiian has passed on the last two times slots were available.
DL still isn't fully using its last round of slots awarded.

Flyguy

Serious question here. Seeing that wn is doing terribly in every lgb market so far, why are you this excited about more slots for them?

tphuang wrote:

wnflyguy wrote:

Iggy500 wrote:

For LGB, I have heard that UA, DL, AS, and WN are trying to steal some slots that B6 gave up. B6 might actually think about closing their LGB hub. This can only happen if:

UA adds LGB-SFO. I don't know why B6 is the only carrier flying this route.
AS adds LGB-SEA/PDX. AS has served LGB in the past, so it could be possible.
DL adds LGB-SEA, and upgauge their current LGB routes. I saw that one of their LGB-SLC flights are using B738s and A319s.
WN adds more routes and frequencies from LGB.

I personally think that the LGB era for B6 is coming to an end, but what do you guys think? Will B6 continue to hold on to LGB, or will they close LGB for good?

From the LGB airport the only airlines on the waiting list for more slots are Southwest,Delta and Hawaiian.
Hawaiian has passed on the last two times slots were available.
DL still isn't fully using its last round of slots awarded.

Flyguy

Serious question here. Seeing that wn is doing terribly in every lgb market so far, why are you this excited about more slots for them?

I'm not necessarily excited about it, but I just believe that B6's time in LGB is almost up. Since they returned to ONT, continue to reduce flights from LGB, and looking at other options in the west coast, I just think that B6 leaving LGB would be the end result.

I'm excited about WN falling into the same trap B6 once did and tries to corner the market in LGB, thus vacating far more important stations like they did at EWR to make more room for B6 adds that actually make money.

Or maybe (taken together with the OAK drop) this is all part of that long game merger of the two. Show the regs how little overlap they have.

So jetblue moves from hobby to IAH now they cutting OAK hmmm seems like something between SW & B6 is brewing.... I just have a feeling

Boston-Havana and Orlando-Havana are gone; JFK-Havana goes to just 1x a week.

I bet Delta and AA scoop up those Havana slots for Miami flights.

https://paxex.aero/2020/01/jetblue-long ... cuts-2020/
A summary of the changes.
aside from the above, looks like the following seasonal changes
5th JFK-LAS flight in summer
3rd JFK-BGI flight in summer
3rd JFK-MBJ flight in winter
2x daily on MCO-CUN/MBJ in summer (I thought these were already 2x for some reason)
3x daily on MCO-RIC in winter (good add)
2x FLL-PVD in winter (surprised it's taken this long)

Seems like FLL has really taken one to gut recently with a lot of cuts. Just not the same tolerance for weak performances. FLL has not done well in Q3/4.

At JFK, looks like they are taking advantage of the AA retreat. That 5th LAS flight should fill in nicely for AA probably dropping LAS soon. Before this, flights/capacity had dropped on JFK-LAS with AS/AA cuts despite demand remaining strong. 2x JFK-BNA will probably push AA and its 44 seaters off that route. Seems like they are up 4 flights in peak summer season (unless there is cuts elsewhere). Not really sure where those slots are coming from. They are probably over 180 flights a day now in peak summer season.

Overall, quite a positive day for JFK. There is really very few weak routes left out of JFK. The weakest ones left are probably PDX, RNO, ABQ, BTV, CHS and SAV. If they have to make more adjustments. The best part is finally dropping HAV and replaced it with flights people actually want to take.

I see that UA is dropping CLE-LGA. I wonder what it would take for them to get those slots off UA.

I think there will be further BOS changes that will get its own announcement. I would think there has to be some kind of retaliation against AA.

tphuang wrote:

on a separate topic, while we wait for the LGB news.

https://leehamnews.com/2020/01/16/air-c ... ice-today/
Interesting that we now have AC confirming the economics of A220-300. It's said that
"Air Canada configures the -300 with 137 passengers in business and coach classes. The typical two-class configuration for the A320neo is about 156 seats. The 737-8’s typical configuration is about 172 seats.

Still, Scherer said the seat mile costs of the -300 are up to 5% better than these two airplanes. The trip costs are 7%-10% better, he said on the sidelines of the event.

I had calculated that 140 seat A220-300 would be about 2 to 3% better in CASM than 162 seat A320NEO based on comments made by B6. And now AC is saying 137 seat A220-300 is up to 5% better than 156 A320NEO. If A220-500 is available, it will be quite the CASM monster. B6 really should jump on this aircraft while slots are still available.

It should be noted that the quote on economics is from Airbus’ Chief Commercial Officer, not from Air Canada. Read into that as you wish, but Leeham suggests it may be a bit of sales hype.

I also can’t quite get his numbers to add up. He says trip costs are 7-10% better, but with 15-20% fewer seats, that doesn’t equate to 5% seat cost improvement. Maybe it’s a misunderstanding, but A223 trip costs would need to be 20-25% lower vs a B7M8 to yield a seat cost improvement of 5%.

B7M8 hypothetical trip cost = 1,000
B7M8 seats per Leeham = 172
B7M8 cost/seat = 5.8

A223 trip cost = 900 (10% better than B7M8)
A223 seats per Leeham = 137
A223 cost/seat = 6.6

A223 cost/seat = 14% higher than B7M8

Even at max seating, but same costs above
B7M8 seats = 189
A223 seats = 160

B7M8 cost/seat = 5.3
A223 cost/seat = 5.6

A223 cost/seat = 6% higher

At max seats, 5% better vs B7M8 above = 5.3*0.95 = 5.04

5.04 * 160 = 806 trip cost

1 - 806/1,000 = 19% required improvement A233 trip cost vs B7M8 to get 5% seat cost improvement

heavymetal wrote:

tphuang wrote:

on a separate topic, while we wait for the LGB news.

https://leehamnews.com/2020/01/16/air-c ... ice-today/
Interesting that we now have AC confirming the economics of A220-300. It's said that
"Air Canada configures the -300 with 137 passengers in business and coach classes. The typical two-class configuration for the A320neo is about 156 seats. The 737-8’s typical configuration is about 172 seats.

Still, Scherer said the seat mile costs of the -300 are up to 5% better than these two airplanes. The trip costs are 7%-10% better, he said on the sidelines of the event.

I had calculated that 140 seat A220-300 would be about 2 to 3% better in CASM than 162 seat A320NEO based on comments made by B6. And now AC is saying 137 seat A220-300 is up to 5% better than 156 A320NEO. If A220-500 is available, it will be quite the CASM monster. B6 really should jump on this aircraft while slots are still available.

It should be noted that the quote on economics is from Airbus’ Chief Commercial Officer, not from Air Canada. Read into that as you wish, but Leeham suggests it may be a bit of sales hype.

I also can’t quite get his numbers to add up. He says trip costs are 7-10% better, but with 15-20% fewer seats, that doesn’t equate to 5% seat cost improvement. Maybe it’s a misunderstanding, but A223 trip costs would need to be 20-25% lower vs a B7M8 to yield a seat cost improvement of 5%.

B7M8 hypothetical trip cost = 1,000
B7M8 seats per Leeham = 172
B7M8 cost/seat = 5.8

A223 trip cost = 900 (10% better than B7M8)
A223 seats per Leeham = 137
A223 cost/seat = 6.6

A223 cost/seat = 14% higher than B7M8

Even at max seating, but same costs above
B7M8 seats = 189
A223 seats = 160

B7M8 cost/seat = 5.3
A223 cost/seat = 5.6

A223 cost/seat = 6% higher

At max seats, 5% better vs B7M8 above = 5.3*0.95 = 5.04

5.04 * 160 = 806 trip cost

1 - 806/1,000 = 19% required improvement A233 trip cost vs B7M8 to get 5% seat cost improvement

I am pretty sure that trip cost part is a mistake because b6 said a220 trip cost is same as e90, which is 20% lower than a320.

Alright, this is a look at how well B6 did in the summer leisure market nearby. Since I included PWM here, I also added BUF/SYR/ROC/BTV as comparison.
CityPairDist Carrier Board AvgFare NSFare ConnFare% NS PerFlight# Flights LF Yield
JFKHYA 196 B6 09750 203.47 203.00 235.55 98.54% 100.0 129 75.58% 153.43
JFKACK 199 B6 39020 199.62 199.38 270.09 99.66% 100.0 610 63.97% 127.54
LGAACK 202 9E 03591 204.97 204.97 000.00 100.00% 049.9 087 82.74% 169.60
LGAACK 202 B6 09484 202.08 200.92 320.24 99.03% 100.0 164 57.83% 116.19
HPNACK 191 B6 08436 191.32 191.32 000.00 100.00% 100.0 132 63.91% 122.27
BOSACK 091 B6 19143 176.07 176.07 000.00 100.00% 100.0 263 72.79% 128.15
DCAACK 405 B6 05597 208.15 196.97 258.23 81.75% 100.0 076 73.64% 145.06
DCAACK 405 YX 13990 289.57 174.49 347.11 33.33% 075.9 215 85.73% 149.59
JFKMVY 173 B6 22649 223.99 223.81 265.19 99.56% 100.0 314 72.13% 161.43
BOSMVY 070 B6 11133 148.53 148.53 000.00 100.00% 100.0 159 70.02% 104.00
JFKPWM 273 9E 24819 177.44 177.44 000.00 100.00% 058.7 493 85.78% 152.20
JFKPWM 273 B6 38967 178.85 178.85 000.00 100.00% 100.7 482 80.26% 143.55
JFKBTV 266 9E 23300 129.98 129.98 000.00 100.00% 058.2 502 79.72% 103.63
JFKBTV 266 B6 42009 128.29 128.29 000.00 100.00% 101.0 542 76.73% 098.43
JFKBUF 301 9E 55565 153.42 153.40 154.05 97.85% 076.0 819 89.29% 136.97
JFKBUF 301 B6 83715 162.70 162.38 360.91 99.84% 101.5 937 88.06% 142.99
JFKSYR 209 9E 25617 130.69 130.69 000.00 100.00% 066.7 509 75.47% 098.62
JFKSYR 209 B6 27632 122.92 121.75 424.60 99.61% 101.4 361 75.50% 091.92
JFKROC 264 9E 28384 161.44 161.44 000.00 100.00% 073.0 453 85.82% 138.55
JFKROC 264 B6 44055 149.29 149.31 137.50 99.79% 100.2 532 82.65% 123.41

Keep in mind that B6 added a lot of ACK capacity last summer which had an adverse affect on the Q2 numbers, since they started the ACK season really early this past year. Q3 numbers looked a lot more in line with 2018.

HYA had about the same capacity and yield was about the same.

JFK/LGA/HPN-ACK definitely had lower yield than JFK-ACK from 2018. Down from 148 to 125 this past summer. So 2018 was 18% higher. This was due to 35% more flights. I think they probably made more money overall than 2018 on ACK even with the lower margins, but maybe they should not have stuck to basically the same capacity this summer of 2020. Or at least, I would advocate EWR-ACK instead of LGA-ACK, since LGA/JFK captures a lot of the same customers.

DCAACK did really well. Yield was up 12%. This probably explains why they are adding DCA-MVY this summer.

BOS-ACK was up 5% over a year ago, so they added a 3rd flight here.

JFK-MVY was down 9% over a year ago but remains the highest margined route in the system.

BOS-MVY was down a little more than that, but should still be a profitable route. Maybe it's competing too much with car+ferry option here.

The one I was surprised about was JFK-PWM. It's yield was only worse than MVY and HYA. There is no way this route gets canceled with that kind of number.

Looking at the remaining E90 routes out of JFK, BUF does really well in summer time. I assume there is a lot of leisure demand here in summer time to Niagara falls and maybe wine region of Canada. This year they cut a flight for the summer and the numbers looked even better. ROC does well enough in summer time. SYR/BTV remains as weak as previous years. BTV could be in danger if it's not around for political reasons.

Looking at this, I think BZN should do well as a summer destination. BNA should also do well in summer season. I'm sure B6 is looking at the leisure demand there as well as the business demand.

Any other summer destinations we can think of that B6 could try for NYC/Boston folks?

tphuang wrote:

Any other summer destinations we can think of that B6 could try for NYC/Boston folks?

How about Iceland?

If a JetBlue hub, focus city, or large catchment area such as OAK on the west coast, can’t support MINT, well maybe JetBlue should not be there in the first place.

How is MINT doing out of LGB?

KlimaBXsst wrote:

If a JetBlue hub, focus city, or large catchment area such as OAK on the west coast, can’t support MINT, well maybe JetBlue should not be there in the first place.

How is MINT doing out of LGB?

MINT pax go to SFO in that area, which is where JB flies mint. OAK never had it.

Similarly, LAX has all the MINT flights in the LA basin...there are none at LGB/BUR/ONT, for now.

JoseSalazar wrote:

KlimaBXsst wrote:

If a JetBlue hub, focus city, or large catchment area such as OAK on the west coast, can’t support MINT, well maybe JetBlue should not be there in the first place.

How is MINT doing out of LGB?

MINT pax go to SFO in that area, which is where JB flies mint. OAK never had it.

Similarly, LAX has all the MINT flights in the LA basin...there are none at LGB/BUR/ONT, for now.

Oh, no MINT out of the LGB focus city. That is kind of odd?

tphuang wrote:

Alright, this is a look at how well B6 did in the summer leisure market nearby. Since I included PWM here, I also added BUF/SYR/ROC/BTV as comparison.
CityPairDist Carrier Board AvgFare NSFare ConnFare% NS PerFlight# Flights LF Yield
JFKHYA 196 B6 09750 203.47 203.00 235.55 98.54% 100.0 129 75.58% 153.43
JFKACK 199 B6 39020 199.62 199.38 270.09 99.66% 100.0 610 63.97% 127.54
LGAACK 202 9E 03591 204.97 204.97 000.00 100.00% 049.9 087 82.74% 169.60
LGAACK 202 B6 09484 202.08 200.92 320.24 99.03% 100.0 164 57.83% 116.19
HPNACK 191 B6 08436 191.32 191.32 000.00 100.00% 100.0 132 63.91% 122.27
BOSACK 091 B6 19143 176.07 176.07 000.00 100.00% 100.0 263 72.79% 128.15
DCAACK 405 B6 05597 208.15 196.97 258.23 81.75% 100.0 076 73.64% 145.06
DCAACK 405 YX 13990 289.57 174.49 347.11 33.33% 075.9 215 85.73% 149.59
JFKMVY 173 B6 22649 223.99 223.81 265.19 99.56% 100.0 314 72.13% 161.43
BOSMVY 070 B6 11133 148.53 148.53 000.00 100.00% 100.0 159 70.02% 104.00
JFKPWM 273 9E 24819 177.44 177.44 000.00 100.00% 058.7 493 85.78% 152.20
JFKPWM 273 B6 38967 178.85 178.85 000.00 100.00% 100.7 482 80.26% 143.55
JFKBTV 266 9E 23300 129.98 129.98 000.00 100.00% 058.2 502 79.72% 103.63
JFKBTV 266 B6 42009 128.29 128.29 000.00 100.00% 101.0 542 76.73% 098.43
JFKBUF 301 9E 55565 153.42 153.40 154.05 97.85% 076.0 819 89.29% 136.97
JFKBUF 301 B6 83715 162.70 162.38 360.91 99.84% 101.5 937 88.06% 142.99
JFKSYR 209 9E 25617 130.69 130.69 000.00 100.00% 066.7 509 75.47% 098.62
JFKSYR 209 B6 27632 122.92 121.75 424.60 99.61% 101.4 361 75.50% 091.92
JFKROC 264 9E 28384 161.44 161.44 000.00 100.00% 073.0 453 85.82% 138.55
JFKROC 264 B6 44055 149.29 149.31 137.50 99.79% 100.2 532 82.65% 123.41

Keep in mind that B6 added a lot of ACK capacity last summer which had an adverse affect on the Q2 numbers, since they started the ACK season really early this past year. Q3 numbers looked a lot more in line with 2018.

HYA had about the same capacity and yield was about the same.

JFK/LGA/HPN-ACK definitely had lower yield than JFK-ACK from 2018. Down from 148 to 125 this past summer. So 2018 was 18% higher. This was due to 35% more flights. I think they probably made more money overall than 2018 on ACK even with the lower margins, but maybe they should not have stuck to basically the same capacity this summer of 2020. Or at least, I would advocate EWR-ACK instead of LGA-ACK, since LGA/JFK captures a lot of the same customers.

DCAACK did really well. Yield was up 12%. This probably explains why they are adding DCA-MVY this summer.

BOS-ACK was up 5% over a year ago, so they added a 3rd flight here.

JFK-MVY was down 9% over a year ago but remains the highest margined route in the system.

BOS-MVY was down a little more than that, but should still be a profitable route. Maybe it's competing too much with car+ferry option here.

The one I was surprised about was JFK-PWM. It's yield was only worse than MVY and HYA. There is no way this route gets canceled with that kind of number.

Looking at the remaining E90 routes out of JFK, BUF does really well in summer time. I assume there is a lot of leisure demand here in summer time to Niagara falls and maybe wine region of Canada. This year they cut a flight for the summer and the numbers looked even better. ROC does well enough in summer time. SYR/BTV remains as weak as previous years. BTV could be in danger if it's not around for political reasons.

Looking at this, I think BZN should do well as a summer destination. BNA should also do well in summer season. I'm sure B6 is looking at the leisure demand there as well as the business demand.

Any other summer destinations we can think of that B6 could try for NYC/Boston folks?

A couple of things about BTV:

1. Summer is a weaker quarter for B6 at BTV. Average fares for the past Q1 and Q4 were at least $10 higher. So, if BTV is making any profit it should at least be doing it year-round and not just in the summer like many of these routes. Likewise it can at least keep E190s doing something year-round.

2. 30% to 40% of the BTV traffic is connecting, so the city pair fare might not give an accurate picture of the profitability of the route.

mjgbtv wrote:

tphuang wrote:

Alright, this is a look at how well B6 did in the summer leisure market nearby. Since I included PWM here, I also added BUF/SYR/ROC/BTV as comparison.
CityPairDist Carrier Board AvgFare NSFare ConnFare% NS PerFlight# Flights LF Yield
JFKHYA 196 B6 09750 203.47 203.00 235.55 98.54% 100.0 129 75.58% 153.43
JFKACK 199 B6 39020 199.62 199.38 270.09 99.66% 100.0 610 63.97% 127.54
LGAACK 202 9E 03591 204.97 204.97 000.00 100.00% 049.9 087 82.74% 169.60
LGAACK 202 B6 09484 202.08 200.92 320.24 99.03% 100.0 164 57.83% 116.19
HPNACK 191 B6 08436 191.32 191.32 000.00 100.00% 100.0 132 63.91% 122.27
BOSACK 091 B6 19143 176.07 176.07 000.00 100.00% 100.0 263 72.79% 128.15
DCAACK 405 B6 05597 208.15 196.97 258.23 81.75% 100.0 076 73.64% 145.06
DCAACK 405 YX 13990 289.57 174.49 347.11 33.33% 075.9 215 85.73% 149.59
JFKMVY 173 B6 22649 223.99 223.81 265.19 99.56% 100.0 314 72.13% 161.43
BOSMVY 070 B6 11133 148.53 148.53 000.00 100.00% 100.0 159 70.02% 104.00
JFKPWM 273 9E 24819 177.44 177.44 000.00 100.00% 058.7 493 85.78% 152.20
JFKPWM 273 B6 38967 178.85 178.85 000.00 100.00% 100.7 482 80.26% 143.55
JFKBTV 266 9E 23300 129.98 129.98 000.00 100.00% 058.2 502 79.72% 103.63
JFKBTV 266 B6 42009 128.29 128.29 000.00 100.00% 101.0 542 76.73% 098.43
JFKBUF 301 9E 55565 153.42 153.40 154.05 97.85% 076.0 819 89.29% 136.97
JFKBUF 301 B6 83715 162.70 162.38 360.91 99.84% 101.5 937 88.06% 142.99
JFKSYR 209 9E 25617 130.69 130.69 000.00 100.00% 066.7 509 75.47% 098.62
JFKSYR 209 B6 27632 122.92 121.75 424.60 99.61% 101.4 361 75.50% 091.92
JFKROC 264 9E 28384 161.44 161.44 000.00 100.00% 073.0 453 85.82% 138.55
JFKROC 264 B6 44055 149.29 149.31 137.50 99.79% 100.2 532 82.65% 123.41

Keep in mind that B6 added a lot of ACK capacity last summer which had an adverse affect on the Q2 numbers, since they started the ACK season really early this past year. Q3 numbers looked a lot more in line with 2018.

HYA had about the same capacity and yield was about the same.

JFK/LGA/HPN-ACK definitely had lower yield than JFK-ACK from 2018. Down from 148 to 125 this past summer. So 2018 was 18% higher. This was due to 35% more flights. I think they probably made more money overall than 2018 on ACK even with the lower margins, but maybe they should not have stuck to basically the same capacity this summer of 2020. Or at least, I would advocate EWR-ACK instead of LGA-ACK, since LGA/JFK captures a lot of the same customers.

DCAACK did really well. Yield was up 12%. This probably explains why they are adding DCA-MVY this summer.

BOS-ACK was up 5% over a year ago, so they added a 3rd flight here.

JFK-MVY was down 9% over a year ago but remains the highest margined route in the system.

BOS-MVY was down a little more than that, but should still be a profitable route. Maybe it's competing too much with car+ferry option here.

The one I was surprised about was JFK-PWM. It's yield was only worse than MVY and HYA. There is no way this route gets canceled with that kind of number.

Looking at the remaining E90 routes out of JFK, BUF does really well in summer time. I assume there is a lot of leisure demand here in summer time to Niagara falls and maybe wine region of Canada. This year they cut a flight for the summer and the numbers looked even better. ROC does well enough in summer time. SYR/BTV remains as weak as previous years. BTV could be in danger if it's not around for political reasons.

Looking at this, I think BZN should do well as a summer destination. BNA should also do well in summer season. I'm sure B6 is looking at the leisure demand there as well as the business demand.

Any other summer destinations we can think of that B6 could try for NYC/Boston folks?

A couple of things about BTV:

1. Summer is a weaker quarter for B6 at BTV. Average fares for the past Q1 and Q4 were at least $10 higher. So, if BTV is making any profit it should at least be doing it year-round and not just in the summer like many of these routes. Likewise it can at least keep E190s doing something year-round.

2. 30% to 40% of the BTV traffic is connecting, so the city pair fare might not give an accurate picture of the profitability of the route.

I would still say BTV is fragile. If Frontier decides to make a big push for winter-seasonal Florida routes at BTV, (like they did at PWM) then that will make a huge dent in B6's connecting traffic. I suspect that Frontier is what pushed B6 out of year-round PWM service, the same could happen at BTV.

Fex180 wrote:

mjgbtv wrote:

tphuang wrote:

Alright, this is a look at how well B6 did in the summer leisure market nearby. Since I included PWM here, I also added BUF/SYR/ROC/BTV as comparison.
CityPairDist Carrier Board AvgFare NSFare ConnFare% NS PerFlight# Flights LF Yield
JFKHYA 196 B6 09750 203.47 203.00 235.55 98.54% 100.0 129 75.58% 153.43
JFKACK 199 B6 39020 199.62 199.38 270.09 99.66% 100.0 610 63.97% 127.54
LGAACK 202 9E 03591 204.97 204.97 000.00 100.00% 049.9 087 82.74% 169.60
LGAACK 202 B6 09484 202.08 200.92 320.24 99.03% 100.0 164 57.83% 116.19
HPNACK 191 B6 08436 191.32 191.32 000.00 100.00% 100.0 132 63.91% 122.27
BOSACK 091 B6 19143 176.07 176.07 000.00 100.00% 100.0 263 72.79% 128.15
DCAACK 405 B6 05597 208.15 196.97 258.23 81.75% 100.0 076 73.64% 145.06
DCAACK 405 YX 13990 289.57 174.49 347.11 33.33% 075.9 215 85.73% 149.59
JFKMVY 173 B6 22649 223.99 223.81 265.19 99.56% 100.0 314 72.13% 161.43
BOSMVY 070 B6 11133 148.53 148.53 000.00 100.00% 100.0 159 70.02% 104.00
JFKPWM 273 9E 24819 177.44 177.44 000.00 100.00% 058.7 493 85.78% 152.20
JFKPWM 273 B6 38967 178.85 178.85 000.00 100.00% 100.7 482 80.26% 143.55
JFKBTV 266 9E 23300 129.98 129.98 000.00 100.00% 058.2 502 79.72% 103.63
JFKBTV 266 B6 42009 128.29 128.29 000.00 100.00% 101.0 542 76.73% 098.43
JFKBUF 301 9E 55565 153.42 153.40 154.05 97.85% 076.0 819 89.29% 136.97
JFKBUF 301 B6 83715 162.70 162.38 360.91 99.84% 101.5 937 88.06% 142.99
JFKSYR 209 9E 25617 130.69 130.69 000.00 100.00% 066.7 509 75.47% 098.62
JFKSYR 209 B6 27632 122.92 121.75 424.60 99.61% 101.4 361 75.50% 091.92
JFKROC 264 9E 28384 161.44 161.44 000.00 100.00% 073.0 453 85.82% 138.55
JFKROC 264 B6 44055 149.29 149.31 137.50 99.79% 100.2 532 82.65% 123.41

Keep in mind that B6 added a lot of ACK capacity last summer which had an adverse affect on the Q2 numbers, since they started the ACK season really early this past year. Q3 numbers looked a lot more in line with 2018.

HYA had about the same capacity and yield was about the same.

JFK/LGA/HPN-ACK definitely had lower yield than JFK-ACK from 2018. Down from 148 to 125 this past summer. So 2018 was 18% higher. This was due to 35% more flights. I think they probably made more money overall than 2018 on ACK even with the lower margins, but maybe they should not have stuck to basically the same capacity this summer of 2020. Or at least, I would advocate EWR-ACK instead of LGA-ACK, since LGA/JFK captures a lot of the same customers.

DCAACK did really well. Yield was up 12%. This probably explains why they are adding DCA-MVY this summer.

BOS-ACK was up 5% over a year ago, so they added a 3rd flight here.

JFK-MVY was down 9% over a year ago but remains the highest margined route in the system.

BOS-MVY was down a little more than that, but should still be a profitable route. Maybe it's competing too much with car+ferry option here.

The one I was surprised about was JFK-PWM. It's yield was only worse than MVY and HYA. There is no way this route gets canceled with that kind of number.

Looking at the remaining E90 routes out of JFK, BUF does really well in summer time. I assume there is a lot of leisure demand here in summer time to Niagara falls and maybe wine region of Canada. This year they cut a flight for the summer and the numbers looked even better. ROC does well enough in summer time. SYR/BTV remains as weak as previous years. BTV could be in danger if it's not around for political reasons.

Looking at this, I think BZN should do well as a summer destination. BNA should also do well in summer season. I'm sure B6 is looking at the leisure demand there as well as the business demand.

Any other summer destinations we can think of that B6 could try for NYC/Boston folks?

A couple of things about BTV:

1. Summer is a weaker quarter for B6 at BTV. Average fares for the past Q1 and Q4 were at least $10 higher. So, if BTV is making any profit it should at least be doing it year-round and not just in the summer like many of these routes. Likewise it can at least keep E190s doing something year-round.

2. 30% to 40% of the BTV traffic is connecting, so the city pair fare might not give an accurate picture of the profitability of the route.

I would still say BTV is fragile. If Frontier decides to make a big push for winter-seasonal Florida routes at BTV, (like they did at PWM) then that will make a huge dent in B6's connecting traffic. I suspect that Frontier is what pushed B6 out of year-round PWM service, the same could happen at BTV.

I'd agree with fragile. Especially after the E190s are gone. However, I'm not sure if the demand to anywhere except MCO can support an A320 sized aircraft.

KlimaBXsst wrote:

JoseSalazar wrote:

KlimaBXsst wrote:

If a JetBlue hub, focus city, or large catchment area such as OAK on the west coast, can’t support MINT, well maybe JetBlue should not be there in the first place.

How is MINT doing out of LGB?

MINT pax go to SFO in that area, which is where JB flies mint. OAK never had it.

Similarly, LAX has all the MINT flights in the LA basin...there are none at LGB/BUR/ONT, for now.

Oh, no MINT out of the LGB focus city. That is kind of odd?

Low-yielding, non-premium station.

tphuang wrote:

https://paxex.aero/2020/01/jetblue-long-beach-oackland-cuts-2020/
A summary of the changes.
aside from the above, looks like the following seasonal changes
5th JFK-LAS flight in summer
3rd JFK-BGI flight in summer
3rd JFK-MBJ flight in winter
2x daily on MCO-CUN/MBJ in summer (I thought these were already 2x for some reason)
3x daily on MCO-RIC in winter (good add)
2x FLL-PVD in winter (surprised it's taken this long)

Seems like FLL has really taken one to gut recently with a lot of cuts. Just not the same tolerance for weak performances. FLL has not done well in Q3/4.

At JFK, looks like they are taking advantage of the AA retreat. That 5th LAS flight should fill in nicely for AA probably dropping LAS soon. Before this, flights/capacity had dropped on JFK-LAS with AS/AA cuts despite demand remaining strong. 2x JFK-BNA will probably push AA and its 44 seaters off that route. Seems like they are up 4 flights in peak summer season (unless there is cuts elsewhere). Not really sure where those slots are coming from. They are probably over 180 flights a day now in peak summer season.

Overall, quite a positive day for JFK. There is really very few weak routes left out of JFK. The weakest ones left are probably PDX, RNO, ABQ, BTV, CHS and SAV. If they have to make more adjustments. The best part is finally dropping HAV and replaced it with flights people actually want to take.

I see that UA is dropping CLE-LGA. I wonder what it would take for them to get those slots off UA.

I think there will be further BOS changes that will get its own announcement. I would think there has to be some kind of retaliation against AA.

I'm starting to get concerned about the endgame for FLL. My understanding is that there is a decent amount of traffic between South Florida and BGI/STI, all of which are markets where B6 has some strength (I think they are the biggest at STI actually), so it's surprising they couldn't make them work. They're also clearly struggling on FLLHAV, and recently exited MEX. If these large markets cannot sustain service from FLL's largest carrier, then what's going to happen as DL builds up MIA and further pressures South Florida yields? Very troubling IMO.

The death by a thousand cuts at LGB is beyond me. What's the point of cutting SJC/OAK/SMF and leaving everything else? Makes no sense.

I'm happy to see JFKBNA announced - and am maybe a bit surprised (even though I predicted it would finally happen this year). This should do well

JFKGUA will also do well, and is totally unsurprising.

The closure of OAK is a long time coming. It has always been one of the weaker transcon markets, and it's not a big loss to the network considering their strong Mint transcon presence at SFO.

The MCO changes are encouraging. The cuts at HAV/PAP are largely due to weakness in those particular end markets IMO, and the additions to RIC/MBJ/CUN show that there is some strength with Orlando point-of-sale.

tphuang wrote:

Alright, this is a look at how well B6 did in the summer leisure market nearby. Since I included PWM here, I also added BUF/SYR/ROC/BTV as comparison.
CityPairDist Carrier Board AvgFare NSFare ConnFare% NS PerFlight# Flights LF Yield
JFKHYA 196 B6 09750 203.47 203.00 235.55 98.54% 100.0 129 75.58% 153.43
JFKACK 199 B6 39020 199.62 199.38 270.09 99.66% 100.0 610 63.97% 127.54
LGAACK 202 9E 03591 204.97 204.97 000.00 100.00% 049.9 087 82.74% 169.60
LGAACK 202 B6 09484 202.08 200.92 320.24 99.03% 100.0 164 57.83% 116.19
HPNACK 191 B6 08436 191.32 191.32 000.00 100.00% 100.0 132 63.91% 122.27
BOSACK 091 B6 19143 176.07 176.07 000.00 100.00% 100.0 263 72.79% 128.15
DCAACK 405 B6 05597 208.15 196.97 258.23 81.75% 100.0 076 73.64% 145.06
DCAACK 405 YX 13990 289.57 174.49 347.11 33.33% 075.9 215 85.73% 149.59
JFKMVY 173 B6 22649 223.99 223.81 265.19 99.56% 100.0 314 72.13% 161.43
BOSMVY 070 B6 11133 148.53 148.53 000.00 100.00% 100.0 159 70.02% 104.00
JFKPWM 273 9E 24819 177.44 177.44 000.00 100.00% 058.7 493 85.78% 152.20
JFKPWM 273 B6 38967 178.85 178.85 000.00 100.00% 100.7 482 80.26% 143.55
JFKBTV 266 9E 23300 129.98 129.98 000.00 100.00% 058.2 502 79.72% 103.63
JFKBTV 266 B6 42009 128.29 128.29 000.00 100.00% 101.0 542 76.73% 098.43
JFKBUF 301 9E 55565 153.42 153.40 154.05 97.85% 076.0 819 89.29% 136.97
JFKBUF 301 B6 83715 162.70 162.38 360.91 99.84% 101.5 937 88.06% 142.99
JFKSYR 209 9E 25617 130.69 130.69 000.00 100.00% 066.7 509 75.47% 098.62
JFKSYR 209 B6 27632 122.92 121.75 424.60 99.61% 101.4 361 75.50% 091.92
JFKROC 264 9E 28384 161.44 161.44 000.00 100.00% 073.0 453 85.82% 138.55
JFKROC 264 B6 44055 149.29 149.31 137.50 99.79% 100.2 532 82.65% 123.41

Keep in mind that B6 added a lot of ACK capacity last summer which had an adverse affect on the Q2 numbers, since they started the ACK season really early this past year. Q3 numbers looked a lot more in line with 2018.

HYA had about the same capacity and yield was about the same.

JFK/LGA/HPN-ACK definitely had lower yield than JFK-ACK from 2018. Down from 148 to 125 this past summer. So 2018 was 18% higher. This was due to 35% more flights. I think they probably made more money overall than 2018 on ACK even with the lower margins, but maybe they should not have stuck to basically the same capacity this summer of 2020. Or at least, I would advocate EWR-ACK instead of LGA-ACK, since LGA/JFK captures a lot of the same customers.

DCAACK did really well. Yield was up 12%. This probably explains why they are adding DCA-MVY this summer.

BOS-ACK was up 5% over a year ago, so they added a 3rd flight here.

JFK-MVY was down 9% over a year ago but remains the highest margined route in the system.

BOS-MVY was down a little more than that, but should still be a profitable route. Maybe it's competing too much with car+ferry option here.

The one I was surprised about was JFK-PWM. It's yield was only worse than MVY and HYA. There is no way this route gets canceled with that kind of number.

Looking at the remaining E90 routes out of JFK, BUF does really well in summer time. I assume there is a lot of leisure demand here in summer time to Niagara falls and maybe wine region of Canada. This year they cut a flight for the summer and the numbers looked even better. ROC does well enough in summer time. SYR/BTV remains as weak as previous years. BTV could be in danger if it's not around for political reasons.

Looking at this, I think BZN should do well as a summer destination. BNA should also do well in summer season. I'm sure B6 is looking at the leisure demand there as well as the business demand.

Any other summer destinations we can think of that B6 could try for NYC/Boston folks?

Comparing BTV to leisure destinations like ACK and BZN is useless.

B6's JFK-BTV route is a feeder route and not the market demand is not O&D. Delta keeps them at their heals so O&D yield/prices is pretty low but B6 makes good money on the connecting leg since there's not a lot of other competition in the BTV market. Unlike BZN/ACK/MVY the target market for BTV and upstate NY travelers are leisure travels from Vermont/upstate (again, often not heading to JFK but just connecting through it); not visitors from NYC. There's a lot of data to back this up.

I also here BTV in rumors (that come from folks who have no clue of the situation) along with PDX/RNO-JFK as potential cuts. Again, PDX and RNO are O&D; not so with BTV. The yield figures you're looking at are totally useless for SYR, ROC and BTV.

tphuang wrote:

Any other summer destinations we can think of that B6 could try for NYC/Boston folks?

If they wanted to jump into the transborder market, JFK-YVR could be a good start (seeing as how CX just dropped the route).

TVC is another strong summer market, although I don't think B6's fleet is the best fit (mainline to TVC only really seems to be sustained from MSP/DTW).

jetbluefan1 wrote:

I'm starting to get concerned about the endgame for FLL. My understanding is that there is a decent amount of traffic between South Florida and BGI/STI, all of which are markets where B6 has some strength (I think they are the biggest at STI actually), so it's surprising they couldn't make them work. They're also clearly struggling on FLLHAV, and recently exited MEX. If these large markets cannot sustain service from FLL's largest carrier, then what's going to happen as DL builds up MIA and further pressures South Florida yields? Very troubling IMO.

The death by a thousand cuts at LGB is beyond me. What's the point of cutting SJC/OAK/SMF and leaving everything else? Makes no sense.

I'm happy to see JFKBNA announced - and am maybe a bit surprised (even though I predicted it would finally happen this year). This should do well

JFKGUA will also do well, and is totally unsurprising.

The closure of OAK is a long time coming. It has always been one of the weaker transcon markets, and it's not a big loss to the network considering their strong Mint transcon presence at SFO.

The MCO changes are encouraging. The cuts at HAV/PAP are largely due to weakness in those particular end markets IMO, and the additions to RIC/MBJ/CUN show that there is some strength with Orlando point-of-sale.

Well according to the Caribbean thread, there is little O&D between FLL-BGI/STI. Which seems to be the prime problem here, where B6 chases O&D and its network doesn't support enough connections at this point.

I think FLL is just put on the back burners right now. There is less tolerance for weaker markets. They do well domestically, but some of the island markets have been tough with all the NK capacity additions. BOS gets all the resources in this fight with DL/AA. It's most likely going to get all the A220s when they come in. All these cuts will allow them to add more flights out of BOS that will be bad for margin at least in the short term. NYC gets net add still, because it's the cash cow that makes money on everything. It seems like even 10 more additional good slots at JFK would do wonders to their system wide margin. As they seek to continue to maximize profitability at JFK, I think you will see more of these within perimeter routes that don't achieve revenue target get cut. I liked their moves this week because they finally cut back two obvious weak routes from JFK and added to at least 3 cities(LAS, BNA, BZN) that should help their relevance to New Yorkers. I'm sure GUA will be great in margins, but most of these VFR routes are not helpful for someone looking to pick a preferred carrier.

To me, the question is when they are going to shift the attention back to FLL and what they will look like. I think at least 2020 and 2021 is going to be all about Europe + finishing building up BOS. At some point the A220s are really going to start rolling in and they shouldn't all go to Boston. Are they going to be used to finish building up FLL? Are they going to be used to build up MCO? Are they going to be used to build up LAX when they get additional gates?

nine4nine wrote:

KlimaBXsst wrote:

JoseSalazar wrote:

MINT pax go to SFO in that area, which is where JB flies mint. OAK never had it.

Similarly, LAX has all the MINT flights in the LA basin...there are none at LGB/BUR/ONT, for now.

Oh, no MINT out of the LGB focus city. That is kind of odd?

Low-yielding, non-premium station.

What 9said. Plus there’s a finite number of mint aircraft and they to to the highest yield market.

KlimaBXsst wrote:

JoseSalazar wrote:

KlimaBXsst wrote:

If a JetBlue hub, focus city, or large catchment area such as OAK on the west coast, can’t support MINT, well maybe JetBlue should not be there in the first place.

How is MINT doing out of LGB?

MINT pax go to SFO in that area, which is where JB flies mint. OAK never had it.

Similarly, LAX has all the MINT flights in the LA basin...there are none at LGB/BUR/ONT, for now.

Oh, no MINT out of the LGB focus city. That is kind of odd?

I'm not sure you understand the Mint product or the demographic in these areas. SFO and LAX are where the premium pax go, so there goes Mint. With respect to OAK, B6 already has SFO and SJC quite well-covered and doesn't need the low-performing east bay flights. And with respect to LGB, it is a low-yielding intra-west hub... not where you'd send your premium pax.

What's going on with the A21N fleet? #38 has been in Burbank since Friday night, where it does not belong, and #27 hasn't moved since Wednesday from JFK (per Flightaware). A21N Burbank flights have been suddenly switched backed to core 321ceo, and are 2/2 in stopping in Salt Lake City on the return.

A lot of changes this week on OAG, more than what we've read so far

B6 ACK-BOS JUN 2>1.4[1.2] JUL 3>1.7[1.7] AUG 3>1.7[1.7] SEP 0.7>0.4[0.8]
B6 ACK-LGA JUN 0.9>0.5[0.9] JUL 1.3>0.7[1.4] AUG 1.3>0.7[1.5]
B6 AUS-BOS JUN 2>3[1.0] JUL 2>3[1.0] AUG 2>3[1.0] SEP 0.5>0.8[1.7]
B6 AUS-FLL MAY 1.0>1.6[1.0]
B6 AUS-JFK MAY 2>3[2]
**B6 BGI-FLL MAY 0.4>0[1.0] JUN 0.4>0[0.8] JUL 0.4>0[0.5] AUG 0.5>0[0.6]
B6 BGI-JFK JUN 2>3[1.9] JUL 2>3[1.7] AUG 2>3[1.7] SEP 0.6>0.8[1.7]
*B6 BNA-JFK MAY 0>2[0] JUN 0>2[0] JUL 0>2[0] AUG 0>2[0] SEP 0>0.5[0]
B6 BOS-BUF JUN 5>3[5] JUL 4>3[5] AUG 5>3[5] SEP 1.3>0.8[4]
*B6 BOS-BZN JUL 0>0.3[0] AUG 0>0.3[0]
B6 BOS-EWR AUG 8>7[5]
B6 BOS-JFK MAR 6>7[5]
B6 BOS-LAS MAY 4>5[4]
Kinda surprised to see BOS to anywhere ending
*B6 BOS-OAK JUN 0.7>0[0.3] JUL 1.0>0[0.6] AUG 1.0>0[0.5] SEP 0.3>0[0.1]
B6 BOS-SAN MAR 3>2.0[1.8]
B6 BOS-SAV JUN 2>1.4[1.3] JUL 2>1.0[1.1] AUG 2>1.0[1.2] SEP 0.5>0.3[1.6]
B6 BOS-SJU MAR 2.5>3.6[2.0] APR 2.4>3.1[2.0]
B6 BQN-JFK MAY 1.2>2.2[1.9]
Daily seems like too much
*B6 BZN-JFK JUN 0>0.7[0] JUL 0>1.0[0] AUG 0>1.0[0] SEP 0>0.3[0]
B6 CHS-JFK MAR 2>3[2]
B6 CUN-MCO JUN 1.1>1.7[1.0] JUL 1.0>1.9[1.0] AUG 1.0>1.9[1.0] SEP 0.3>0.5[1.0]
B6 DEN-JFK MAY 1.0>2[1.6]
B6 FLL-JFK MAY 7>9[7] JUN 6>9[6] JUL 6>8[6] AUG 6>8[6] SEP 1.6>2[6]
B6 FLL-LAS FEB 1.9>1.4[1.0] MAR 2>1.1[1.0]
B6 FLL-PAP MAY 3>1.0[2] JUN 3>2[3]
B6 FLL-RIC MAY 1.4>1.9[1.7]
B6 FLL-SJO MAY 1.0>0.5[1.0]
**B6 FLL-STI MAY 0.6>0[1.0] JUN 0.6>0[1.0] JUL 0.6>0[1.0] AUG 0.6>0[1.0]
*B6 GUA-JFK JUN 0>1.0[0] JUL 0>1.0[0] AUG 0>1.0[0] SEP 0>0.3[0]
**B6 HAV-JFK MAY 1.0>0.2[1.0] JUN 1.0>0.1[1.0] JUL 1.0>0.1[1.0] AUG 1.0>0.2[1.0] SEP 0.3>0.0[1.0]
**B6 HAV-MCO MAY 1.0>0[1.0] JUN 1.0>0[1.0] JUL 1.0>0[1.0] AUG 1.0>0[1.0] SEP 0.3>0[1.0]
B6 JFK-KIN FEB 2>3[2.0] MAR 2>3[2]
B6 JFK-LAS MAY 4>5[4] JUN 4>5[4] JUL 4>5[4] AUG 4>5[3] SEP 1.1>1.3[4]
B6 JFK-LAX JUL 10>11[10] AUG 10>11[10]
B6 JFK-MBJ JUN 3>2.0[2] JUL 3>2[3] AUG 3>2[4] SEP 1.1>0.8[3]
B6 JFK-MSY FEB 1.6>2[2]
B6 JFK-NAS MAY 2>1.0[1.8]
*B6 JFK-OAK MAY 0.9>0[0.7] JUN 1.0>0[0.8] JUL 1.0>0[1.0] AUG 1.0>0[1.0] SEP 0.3>0[0.8]
B6 JFK-PAP MAY 2>1.0[2]
B6 JFK-PBI MAY 3>4[3]
B6 JFK-POS FEB 1.0>1.6[1.0] MAR 1.0>1.2[1.0]
B6 JFK-PUJ MAY 3>2[3]
B6 JFK-RSW JUN 2>3[2] JUL 2>3[2] AUG 2>3[2] SEP 0.5>0.8[2]
Why didn'y they leave LGB completely? It seems inevitable.
B6 LAS-LGB MAY 3>2[3] JUN 3>2[3] JUL 3>2[3] AUG 3>2[3] SEP 0.8>0.5[3]
*B6 LGB-OAK MAY 2>0[2] JUN 2>0[2] JUL 2>0[2] AUG 2>0[2] SEP 0.5>0[3]
*B6 LGB-SJC MAY 2>0[2] JUN 2>0[2] JUL 2>0[2] AUG 2>0[2] SEP 0.5>0[2]
*B6 LGB-SMF MAY 2>0[2] JUN 2>0[2] JUL 2>0[2] AUG 2>0[2] SEP 0.5>0[2]
B6 MBJ-MCO JUN 1.3>2[1.0] JUL 1.0>2[1.0] AUG 1.0>2[1.9] SEP 0.3>0.5[1.1]
B6 MCO-NAS MAY 1.0>0.7[0.7]
**B6 MCO-PAP MAY 0.7>0[0.7] JUN 0.8>0[0.9] JUL 0.9>0[1.0] AUG 0.9>0[1.0] SEP 0.2>0[0.7]

If you are keeping the scores, a lot of additions for JFK. They are easily over 180 flights a day now in July/August.

Not sure where they got an additional mint frame for JFK-LAX, but their schedule on there looks quite promising, even better than AA's schedule and last flight is scheduled to get in before 1 am. Now, they have the flight here in the summer. And their LAS schedule looks pretty good with that 5th flight.

The Florida flights seem to be downgauged (FLL/MCO are back up to 8/9 a day but with a lot of A320s). Someone on OAG thread claims these are due to Port authority telling B6 to use its unused slots or lose them. That would make sense with what they are doing here, but I struggle to figure out where this is coming from given that they've been adding flights at JFK. Did they have offer 180 slots all along or did they pick up some more recently. Or maybe they have so many flights scheduled outside of slot restricted hours that many of their flights just haven't been using slots. Who knows. It's certainly good news they have some room to add flights in peak summer season.

Some of the cuts are a little hard to swallow though, BOS-BUF down to 3x daily makes no sense to me. I hope this is just a 2020 move. Not sure why AUS add to FLL/JFK are only for 1 month. Maybe we will see them continue post peak summer season.

PAP continues to be a disaster.

Not sure what's up with these late adds to Feb/March schedule.

If they really need to up JFK slot usage...a day PHX flight makes a ton of sense since they are adding a day BOS. The PHX B6 staff will be there already. Better than some of these underperforming markets imo.

I wish JetBlue would return to CMH

JoseSalazar wrote:

If they really need to up JFK slot usage...a day PHX flight makes a ton of sense since they are adding a day BOS. The PHX B6 staff will be there already. Better than some of these underperforming markets imo.

If B6 has some unused slots at JFK, there are a few other nonstop routes such as JFK-CLE, JFK-DFW, and JFK-MSP that could be added by B6 out of JFK.

I would be pretty surprised if BTV was cut. Wasn't it one of the original blue cities and the first city added in New England? Not that saved OAK but still. I think it has been flown since the get-go or at least 2000.

I wouldn't be surprised if they cut ALB. I don't understand the presence in the market (other than appeasing Schumer) considering WN/F9/G4 also do ALB-Florida and yields must be trash.

So MINT is not a tool, that creates value yield seepage from the dominant low cost type carrier.

MINT exists as a niche in places where the “US3” have dropped the ball. If the US3 up their premium product pricing game is MINT sustainable?

jplatts wrote:

JoseSalazar wrote:

If they really need to up JFK slot usage...a day PHX flight makes a ton of sense since they are adding a day BOS. The PHX B6 staff will be there already. Better than some of these underperforming markets imo.

If B6 has some unused slots at JFK, there are a few other nonstop routes such as JFK-CLE, JFK-DFW, and JFK-MSP that could be added by B6 out of JFK.

JFK-DTW is also pretty high yielding. Wouldn't shock me to see B6 jump in on that. Of course DL will probably respond and upgauge, but it'll probably do well. The route needs competition too.

doulasc wrote:

I wish JetBlue would return to CMH

I think BOS-CMH is probably right up top as the next target for them. I have to imagine they announce a new BOS to midwest market sometimes this year.

KlimaBXsst wrote:

So MINT is not a tool, that creates value yield seepage from the dominant low cost type carrier.

MINT exists as a niche in places where the “US3” have dropped the ball. If the US3 up their premium product pricing game is MINT sustainable?

Mint is rated very well and its much lower cost than legacy premium offerings. That has allowed them to add markets beyond the traditional JFK-LAX/SFO. But realistically, even with their costs, it still only works for a limited set of markets.

Imo, PHX is the most likely new mint market.

evank516 wrote:

JFK-DTW is also pretty high yielding. Wouldn't shock me to see B6 jump in on that. Of course DL will probably respond and upgauge, but it'll probably do well. The route needs competition too.

They probably will do about as well on that as JFK-CLT. Doesn't make a lot of sense to try routes within 500 miles of NYC from JFK. Vast majority of demand is out of LGA. If they want to retaliate against DL, MSP is a much better option. I think that might happen if they want to add more flight.

But realistically, they need to have save some slots for Europe and for these important transcon markets like LAX/SFO that continue to grow but see no additional flight. I really do hope they can add that 7th flight to SFO. The A21N delivery issues really hurt them.