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CaptCoolHand
Posts: 95
Joined: Mon Oct 22, 2018 12:24 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Mon Feb 24, 2020 2:06 pm

CobaltScar wrote:
JoseSalazar wrote:
CobaltScar wrote:

WN has a max scheduled duty day of 10.5 hours, B6 uses the FAR max of 14 hours. So I think its funny when people imply WN work harder and longer days. Fake News.


Where are you getting 10.5 hours? And double the pay? Have you compared pay rates?

The following is straight from the current SWAPA pilot contract, section 5.D.2.F. Did something change?

Contractual Duty Period Chart
Report Time Maximum Duty Period Scheduled Maximum Duty Period Actual
0200-0359 10 Hours 12 Hours
0400-0559 12 Hours 14 Hours
0600-1059 13 Hours 15 Hours
1100-1459 12 Hours 14 Hours
1500-1959 11 Hours 13 Hours
2000-0159 9 Hours 11 Hours


I'm talking about the FAs, you know, the ones doing physical customer facing work for 14+ hours on their feet. B6 works them much harder and longer than WN, for less pay.


LoL, this explains so much. Bwahahahaha
 
11C
Posts: 162
Joined: Mon Jun 17, 2019 2:25 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Mon Feb 24, 2020 2:34 pm

CobaltScar wrote:
JoseSalazar wrote:
CobaltScar wrote:

You do realize WN has far shorter duty days than B6 right? And for like double the pay.

Say what?


WN has a max scheduled duty day of 10.5 hours, B6 uses the FAR max of 14 hours. So I think its funny when people imply WN work harder and longer days. Fake News.


Nothing excites me quite like someone using the term “fake news.” It the modern equivalent to fingers in the ears while screaming, “la, la, la.”
 
CobaltScar
Posts: 748
Joined: Thu Mar 23, 2017 2:30 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Mon Feb 24, 2020 2:48 pm

JoseSalazar wrote:
CobaltScar wrote:
JoseSalazar wrote:

Where are you getting 10.5 hours? And double the pay? Have you compared pay rates?

The following is straight from the current SWAPA pilot contract, section 5.D.2.F. Did something change?

Contractual Duty Period Chart
Report Time Maximum Duty Period Scheduled Maximum Duty Period Actual
0200-0359 10 Hours 12 Hours
0400-0559 12 Hours 14 Hours
0600-1059 13 Hours 15 Hours
1100-1459 12 Hours 14 Hours
1500-1959 11 Hours 13 Hours
2000-0159 9 Hours 11 Hours


I'm talking about the FAs, you know, the ones doing physical customer facing work for 14+ hours on their feet. B6 works them much harder and longer than WN, for less pay.

Wait a second. We were just talking about pilots having a conversation in MCO about airline futures there, and the post you replied to and quoted was about a pilot saying he didn’t want to work like southwest pilots work...then you say they don’t work hard and call it fake news, I call you out with facts, then you say you were talking about FAs? What???


How do you know the other person in the south lot van was a pilot?
If you are familiar with the pilot duty limits, than you should of instantly of known I was referring FA duty limits , since they are wildly different.

You seems very surprised at the gulf between duty days at B6 and WN. Glad I could open your eyes.

-Flight Attendant lives matter-
 
uconn99
Posts: 420
Joined: Mon Feb 01, 2016 11:52 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Mon Feb 24, 2020 10:14 pm

FlyHPN wrote:
tphuang wrote:
I'd prefer to see them adding some more P2P flights out of places like BDL/PVD/BUF/RSW to solidify their ff base in these areas. For example, can you see what adding LAX, LAS and London to BDL would do to their ff base in the Conn/Westchester area? That's a very wealthy area.


While I agree with you in principal, I think they would be better off with SWF than BDL. It’s closer to the wealthier areas of Fairfield county and all of Westchester, plus you avoid the traffic prone I95/Merritt corridor. As you mentioned elsewhere in your post, it’ll be all about finding the equipment, plus warrant using valuable spots in places like London and LAX for a niche market.


Hartford has plenty of wealthy suburbs and corporate traffic on its own to make it work and AA is less than daily BDL-LAX now with the max issues but I agree SWF would work better for lower Fairfield county
 
tphuang
Posts: 5298
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Tue Feb 25, 2020 4:43 pm

Recently, I found that you can get more accurate connection data than before, so I attempt to calculate route performance with connection and connection data added in. Not perfect, but this at least tries to not only take into considering % of passengers connecting vs direct and doing a prorated calculation on connection fare for that segment as part of total fare. I also penalized connection itinerary a little more to account for higher cost associated with 2 flights and additional cost of connecting passenger + lower revenue opportunities from one ticket. Against, nothing perfect, but a first step to go beyond just using O&D fares and LF.

Anyhow, a few things I learnt from the data.

FLL looks to be the station with most connection activity. Here is some example of their O&D % on some FLL domestic routes based on fare sample data. Could be a little off.
FLL-LAX - 82% O&D vs 76% for AS, 72% for NK and 54% for AA at MIA
FLL-SFO - 82% O&D vs 69% for UA and 64% for AA at MIA
Not really sure what UA is still doing on this route Their numbers are horrible.
FLL-LAS - 73% O&D vs 84% for NK and 73% for WN
FLL-JAX - 55$ O&D vs 41% for NK and 45% for WN and 70% for AA. Thank goodness NK/WN are gone now. such a bloodbath for a while there
FLL-MSY - 86% O&D vs 65% for NK and 64% for WN. 68% for AA.
FLL-ATL - 41% O&D vs 35% for DL and 60% for NK and 53% for WN. Really high connection here. Not a surprise given the number of low connection fares I saw from B6 out of ATL to Latin America.
FLL-RDU - 57% O&D vs 76% for DL and 66% for NK and 64% for WN. Again I'm surprised they are connecting more than anyone else here.
FLL-ORD - 74% O&D vs 73% for NK and 84% for UA.
FLL-CLE - 82% O&D vs 88% for NK
FLL-RIC - 67% O&D vs 75% for NK

Also, looking at intra-florida routes like FLL/MIA-MCO/TPA, the O&D is in the 20s and 30s for the operating carriers. If they want to add conectivity, they could add these flights, but I would imagine these routes only make sense when they are ready to fly to Brazil out of FLL. I can't imagine WN sticking around much longer on them.

In comparison, JFK is very heavily O&D - over 85% on most routes that's more than 2 hours of flying out. Also on most routes, they are the most heavy O&D airline.

Even out of BOS, they are very heavy O&D still outside of maybe BOS-JFK/SYR/. They are over 85% O&D on a lot of routes even short business ones.

If anything, I'd expect launch of TATL flights to change the profiles a little bit out of BOS.
 
tphuang
Posts: 5298
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Wed Feb 26, 2020 3:12 pm

The other thing I took a look at is connection adjusted yields for JetBlue across the various NY area airports. For example, do JFK numbers still look good once adjusted for connection opportunities. For that I took a look at the markets they all fly to. Keep in mind that my connection% is rough estimated based on fare itineraries which is a 10% sample. And connection fares are also using a prorated formula I came up with that penalizes the higher cost of connections. We only have data to domestic connections on the same carrier, so i'm making the assumption that is comparable to international connection fares. As a point of comparison. I used DL at JFK/LGA and UA at EWR to show how well they do in these markets.

BOS.
CityPairCarrier LF Dep PerFlt NSFare ConnF % NS Yield Vs B6
BOSLGA B6 58.18 0837 100.1 165.78 087.54 79.96 087.33 100
BOSLGA DL 71.06 2352 091.0 211.80 078.59 58.45 111.18 127.31
BOSJFK B6 72.05 0967 101.8 186.59 076.61 34.76 082.74 100
BOSJFK DL 78.99 1348 092.2 179.85 071.88 35.16 086.77 104.87
BOSEWR B6 60.16 0958 100.2 161.51 081.37 78.19 086.65 100
BOSEWR UA 77.64 1816 152.4 215.46 080.05 44.89 109.35 126.2

So after adjusting for connections, B6 numbers out of LGA/EWR look a lot better since DL/UA both have very high connection dependent routes here. Also, B6 on JFK-BOS is also heavily connection dependent and looks like weakest route after this. Without connection data, JFK-BOS looked like the far and way best performing route of the 3. Now, I see all 3 as below system average routes just in terms of yields.

DL on BOS-LGA no longer looks like an above average route after adjusting for connection traffic and the heavy regional usage. UA's numbers on BOS-EWR look pretty good since they are running all mainline on there. It'd be interesting to see how this changes when B6 goes up to 10x daily. I'd expect their Non-stop fare numbers to go up, but they'd probably have lower Load factor or NS% to fill up the cabins. And given that EWR/LGA perform about the same for similar number of flights, I'd hope they also continue to add to EWR after the current JFK slot issues go away.

FLL,
CityPairCarrier LF Dep PerFlt NSFare ConnF % NS Yield Vs B6
FLLJFK B6 88.21 1096 188.6 178.74 134.69 74.43 147.73 100
FLLJFK DL 89.28 0662 174.6 169.87 110.24 82.8 142.50 96.46
FLLLGA B6 86.07 0733 144.3 180.47 123.04 88.86 149.83 100
FLLLGA DL 88.35 0821 163.3 179.82 117.33 91.74 154.31 102.98
EWRFLL B6 90.34 0563 151.2 184.92 131.39 81.05 157.89 100
EWRFLL UA 90.01 1020 174.9 183.41 128.95 85.97 158.21 100.2
The surprising part for me here is that connection traffic on JFK-FLL didn't hurt its oveall yield that much. Given the heavy usage of A321s out of JFK and the higher capacity there, it's still the most profitable of the 3 routes. Also, it's surprising that EWR-FLL has higher yield than LGA-FLL. Given their yields are about the same as UA out of EWR (albeit on lower capacity aircraft), it shows B6 does have quite a bit of pricing power across the hudson. As FLL lose flights out of LGA to BOS this summer, JFK and EWR are getting most of that capacity. I'd expect that to be good for their profitability. Again with Fare Option 2.0 and most refreshed A320s entering service, they should be gaining in competitiveness on routes like EWR-FLL.

MCO,
CityPairCarrier LF Dep PerFlt NSFare ConnF % NS Yield Vs B6
JFKMCO B6 86.49 1513 183.6 174.72 116.65 86.48 144.33 100
JFKMCO DL 89.52 0808 185.5 179.50 107.11 74.97 144.47 100.1
LGAMCO B6 86.51 0713 150.7 169.36 127.58 95.58 144.92 100
LGAMCO DL 87.90 0914 189.8 171.13 109.98 90.11 145.11 100.13
EWRMCO B6 89.59 1033 152.5 164.65 108.67 94.77 144.88 100
EWRMCO UA 87.73 1576 169.3 181.59 116.23 81.94 148.96 102.82
Similar to FLL, JFK numbers here still look the best after factoring in connections. Notice how both DL and UA have upgauged on all their NYC area MCO flights. That's something B6 would need to do to keep its cost advantage on them. As a whole, both LGA/EWR-MCO are still profitable routes, although not as much as FLL.

PBI,
CityPairCarrier LF Dep PerFlt NSFare ConnF % NS Yield Vs B6
JFKPBI B6 84.85 0467 174.4 162.33 136.18 89.26 135.36 100
JFKPBI DL 88.05 0223 132.9 167.67 110.28 84.62 139.86 103.32
LGAPBI B6 85.94 0521 151.5 171.39 115.72 98.84 146.74 100
LGAPBI DL 87.10 0671 133.4 185.70 119.15 87.37 154.43 105.24
EWRPBI B6 85.28 0353 152.9 170.37 186.65 96.68 145.76 100
EWRPBI UA 87.22 0754 157.7 188.45 135.36 85.17 157.50 108.05
The numbers are a lot closer here after adjusting for connections and aircraft Costs. Keep in mind that DL is still running mostly small narrowbody here and EWR looks to be medium sized narrowbody, so B6 performance on EWR/LGA-PBI look pretty reasonable.

SJU,
CityPairCarrier LF Dep PerFlt NSFare ConnF % NS Yield Vs B6
JFKSJU B6 82.76 1155 182.3 217.77 156.04 84.57 172.35 100
JFKSJU DL 88.63 0553 179.9 218.22 136.37 76.54 176.40 102.35
EWRSJU B6 87.76 0433 150.6 224.97 207.77 90.8 196.04 100
EWRSJU UA 89.72 0281 219.6 245.22 136.74 63.35 184.35 94.04
this to me is quite interesting. After adjusting for connections, B6 is doing quite well out of EWR-SJU even accounting for the usage of medium narrowbody aircraft vs the more A321s on JFK-SJU. To me, it looks like they did not running enough VFR flights out of EWR last summer and not enough with A321s. That explains why they've added so many PR/DR VFR flights out of EWR this summer.

Overall, their performances out of EWR look pretty good vs JFK/LGA. They should continue to add to EWR if they can. EWR-FLL looks seriously underserved based on the data we have available. And it appears to me that LGA actually does the worst to Florida. If I were JetBlue, I'd use whatever additional LGA slots I get on short haul business routes. To me, there is no need to keep more than FLL around at LGA. They already have abundance of PBI flights out of EWR/HPN/JFK that serve those who live in Brooklyn/Long Island, Westchester, CT and central/western Jersey that own second homes in west palm beach. I don't think they are losing much if they drop LGA-PBI. MCO also seem to do better out of JFK and just as well out of EWR.

Also, based on these data, I think EWR can support other routes that do well out of JFK like KIN, daily BGI, MBJ, LAS, MSY and of course mint stuff.
 
Buffalomatt1027
Posts: 439
Joined: Sun Aug 20, 2017 4:02 am

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Wed Feb 26, 2020 9:48 pm

tphuang wrote:
On the topic of focus city, it seems to me that while it's important to look for new focus cities, their existing focus cities have a lot of work that's needed. Taking a look at their projects:
BOS - Needs to grow another 60 flights (including 15 TATL ones) and upgauge a lot of the flights to A220 and A321NEO. That will take away a lot of their growth in the next 5 years.
NYC - JFK almost maxed out in slot usage. But if those unused AA slots become available or slot goes away in the next couple of years. They need to try add as many flight as they can. And of course, the effort to redevelop T6/7 is going to be a huge revenue generator in the long term, but is going to cost them a little in short term. And there is still growth in EWR if JFK is maxed out.
FLL - BOS/NYC growth means no growth here until sometimes in 2020 at least. And they need to go from peak 110 flights a day now to 140 flights a day or more. So, another 30 flights at minimum to counter NK growth. This is the focus city most at risk from NK expansion. They need to add another 10 flights a year to make this happen.
MCO - South terminal is apparently good to go next year. Where are they getting the resources to expand here. Let's say they focus on NYC/BOS until end of 2021, Florida gets attention again by 2022. Only half of the A321 deliveries from 2022 to 2025 are non-LR/XLR type. Again, not a lot of resource for them to grow MCO rapidly to counter NK expansion here either. But theoretically, they need to go at least from peak 70 now to peak 100 by 2025. That would be about 7 or 8 additional flights a year.
LAX - This is the one i'm curious to see. I think they can go from peak 22 this summer to 40 if they get those 5 gates. With A220, that's possible to do profitably. Still seems like they can't really compete here unless they get even more gates than that. But let's just say they get those gates by 2022, I see some flights shifting over from LGB. But for the rest, they need more aircraft also. Let's say they shift 10 flights over from LGB, still would need to add 2 or 3 flights a year until 2025.

I'm not sure they have the resources to even do all these additions, let alone adding another focus city.

I'd prefer to see them adding some more P2P flights out of places like BDL/PVD/BUF/RSW to solidify their ff base in these areas. For example, can you see what adding LAX, LAS and London to BDL would do to their ff base in the Conn/Westchester area? That's a very wealthy area.

Things could look a lot different 5 years from now. I'd imagine a large recession would happen over the time which could change the landscape a lot.

Although, the addition of A220 does give them a shot to buildup new stuff. Assuming that their existing projects are in a good position.

To have an easier buildup, they should look for cities without large legacy or WN presence that have gate availability. That would reduce possibility to some second tier cities like CLE, PIT or IND. Or they could try MKE if they want to get a middle of the country focus city. The problem is that all the really desirable growth type of cities are focused by legacies and WN already. Doesn't make sense to go into SJC/AUS when everyone wants to get in there. Doesn't make sense to go into RDU when DL is so invested in there.


B6 should have more P2P flights to other destinations out of BUF. Their BUF - LA flight which is the only unique route BUF has compared to some medium size b6 cities and it does really well. The only b6 flight out of BUF that struggles is BOS but its still a solid feeder for BOS.

The A220 would be perfect fit for the airport too.
 
Nicknuzzii
Posts: 1216
Joined: Sat Sep 15, 2018 5:57 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Thu Feb 27, 2020 12:57 am

tphuang wrote:
The other thing I took a look at is connection adjusted yields for JetBlue across the various NY area airports. For example, do JFK numbers still look good once adjusted for connection opportunities. For that I took a look at the markets they all fly to. Keep in mind that my connection% is rough estimated based on fare itineraries which is a 10% sample. And connection fares are also using a prorated formula I came up with that penalizes the higher cost of connections. We only have data to domestic connections on the same carrier, so i'm making the assumption that is comparable to international connection fares. As a point of comparison. I used DL at JFK/LGA and UA at EWR to show how well they do in these markets.

BOS.
CityPairCarrier LF Dep PerFlt NSFare ConnF % NS Yield Vs B6
BOSLGA B6 58.18 0837 100.1 165.78 087.54 79.96 087.33 100
BOSLGA DL 71.06 2352 091.0 211.80 078.59 58.45 111.18 127.31
BOSJFK B6 72.05 0967 101.8 186.59 076.61 34.76 082.74 100
BOSJFK DL 78.99 1348 092.2 179.85 071.88 35.16 086.77 104.87
BOSEWR B6 60.16 0958 100.2 161.51 081.37 78.19 086.65 100
BOSEWR UA 77.64 1816 152.4 215.46 080.05 44.89 109.35 126.2

So after adjusting for connections, B6 numbers out of LGA/EWR look a lot better since DL/UA both have very high connection dependent routes here. Also, B6 on JFK-BOS is also heavily connection dependent and looks like weakest route after this. Without connection data, JFK-BOS looked like the far and way best performing route of the 3. Now, I see all 3 as below system average routes just in terms of yields.

DL on BOS-LGA no longer looks like an above average route after adjusting for connection traffic and the heavy regional usage. UA's numbers on BOS-EWR look pretty good since they are running all mainline on there. It'd be interesting to see how this changes when B6 goes up to 10x daily. I'd expect their Non-stop fare numbers to go up, but they'd probably have lower Load factor or NS% to fill up the cabins. And given that EWR/LGA perform about the same for similar number of flights, I'd hope they also continue to add to EWR after the current JFK slot issues go away.

FLL,
CityPairCarrier LF Dep PerFlt NSFare ConnF % NS Yield Vs B6
FLLJFK B6 88.21 1096 188.6 178.74 134.69 74.43 147.73 100
FLLJFK DL 89.28 0662 174.6 169.87 110.24 82.8 142.50 96.46
FLLLGA B6 86.07 0733 144.3 180.47 123.04 88.86 149.83 100
FLLLGA DL 88.35 0821 163.3 179.82 117.33 91.74 154.31 102.98
EWRFLL B6 90.34 0563 151.2 184.92 131.39 81.05 157.89 100
EWRFLL UA 90.01 1020 174.9 183.41 128.95 85.97 158.21 100.2
The surprising part for me here is that connection traffic on JFK-FLL didn't hurt its oveall yield that much. Given the heavy usage of A321s out of JFK and the higher capacity there, it's still the most profitable of the 3 routes. Also, it's surprising that EWR-FLL has higher yield than LGA-FLL. Given their yields are about the same as UA out of EWR (albeit on lower capacity aircraft), it shows B6 does have quite a bit of pricing power across the hudson. As FLL lose flights out of LGA to BOS this summer, JFK and EWR are getting most of that capacity. I'd expect that to be good for their profitability. Again with Fare Option 2.0 and most refreshed A320s entering service, they should be gaining in competitiveness on routes like EWR-FLL.

MCO,
CityPairCarrier LF Dep PerFlt NSFare ConnF % NS Yield Vs B6
JFKMCO B6 86.49 1513 183.6 174.72 116.65 86.48 144.33 100
JFKMCO DL 89.52 0808 185.5 179.50 107.11 74.97 144.47 100.1
LGAMCO B6 86.51 0713 150.7 169.36 127.58 95.58 144.92 100
LGAMCO DL 87.90 0914 189.8 171.13 109.98 90.11 145.11 100.13
EWRMCO B6 89.59 1033 152.5 164.65 108.67 94.77 144.88 100
EWRMCO UA 87.73 1576 169.3 181.59 116.23 81.94 148.96 102.82
Similar to FLL, JFK numbers here still look the best after factoring in connections. Notice how both DL and UA have upgauged on all their NYC area MCO flights. That's something B6 would need to do to keep its cost advantage on them. As a whole, both LGA/EWR-MCO are still profitable routes, although not as much as FLL.

PBI,
CityPairCarrier LF Dep PerFlt NSFare ConnF % NS Yield Vs B6
JFKPBI B6 84.85 0467 174.4 162.33 136.18 89.26 135.36 100
JFKPBI DL 88.05 0223 132.9 167.67 110.28 84.62 139.86 103.32
LGAPBI B6 85.94 0521 151.5 171.39 115.72 98.84 146.74 100
LGAPBI DL 87.10 0671 133.4 185.70 119.15 87.37 154.43 105.24
EWRPBI B6 85.28 0353 152.9 170.37 186.65 96.68 145.76 100
EWRPBI UA 87.22 0754 157.7 188.45 135.36 85.17 157.50 108.05
The numbers are a lot closer here after adjusting for connections and aircraft Costs. Keep in mind that DL is still running mostly small narrowbody here and EWR looks to be medium sized narrowbody, so B6 performance on EWR/LGA-PBI look pretty reasonable.

SJU,
CityPairCarrier LF Dep PerFlt NSFare ConnF % NS Yield Vs B6
JFKSJU B6 82.76 1155 182.3 217.77 156.04 84.57 172.35 100
JFKSJU DL 88.63 0553 179.9 218.22 136.37 76.54 176.40 102.35
EWRSJU B6 87.76 0433 150.6 224.97 207.77 90.8 196.04 100
EWRSJU UA 89.72 0281 219.6 245.22 136.74 63.35 184.35 94.04
this to me is quite interesting. After adjusting for connections, B6 is doing quite well out of EWR-SJU even accounting for the usage of medium narrowbody aircraft vs the more A321s on JFK-SJU. To me, it looks like they did not running enough VFR flights out of EWR last summer and not enough with A321s. That explains why they've added so many PR/DR VFR flights out of EWR this summer.

Overall, their performances out of EWR look pretty good vs JFK/LGA. They should continue to add to EWR if they can. EWR-FLL looks seriously underserved based on the data we have available. And it appears to me that LGA actually does the worst to Florida. If I were JetBlue, I'd use whatever additional LGA slots I get on short haul business routes. To me, there is no need to keep more than FLL around at LGA. They already have abundance of PBI flights out of EWR/HPN/JFK that serve those who live in Brooklyn/Long Island, Westchester, CT and central/western Jersey that own second homes in west palm beach. I don't think they are losing much if they drop LGA-PBI. MCO also seem to do better out of JFK and just as well out of EWR.

Also, based on these data, I think EWR can support other routes that do well out of JFK like KIN, daily BGI, MBJ, LAS, MSY and of course mint stuff.



Thank you so much for sharing this data! May I ask, when is this data for?
 
tphuang
Posts: 5298
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Thu Feb 27, 2020 1:02 am

Nicknuzzii wrote:
tphuang wrote:
The other thing I took a look at is connection adjusted yields for JetBlue across the various NY area airports. For example, do JFK numbers still look good once adjusted for connection opportunities. For that I took a look at the markets they all fly to. Keep in mind that my connection% is rough estimated based on fare itineraries which is a 10% sample. And connection fares are also using a prorated formula I came up with that penalizes the higher cost of connections. We only have data to domestic connections on the same carrier, so i'm making the assumption that is comparable to international connection fares. As a point of comparison. I used DL at JFK/LGA and UA at EWR to show how well they do in these markets.

BOS.
CityPairCarrier LF Dep PerFlt NSFare ConnF % NS Yield Vs B6
BOSLGA B6 58.18 0837 100.1 165.78 087.54 79.96 087.33 100
BOSLGA DL 71.06 2352 091.0 211.80 078.59 58.45 111.18 127.31
BOSJFK B6 72.05 0967 101.8 186.59 076.61 34.76 082.74 100
BOSJFK DL 78.99 1348 092.2 179.85 071.88 35.16 086.77 104.87
BOSEWR B6 60.16 0958 100.2 161.51 081.37 78.19 086.65 100
BOSEWR UA 77.64 1816 152.4 215.46 080.05 44.89 109.35 126.2

So after adjusting for connections, B6 numbers out of LGA/EWR look a lot better since DL/UA both have very high connection dependent routes here. Also, B6 on JFK-BOS is also heavily connection dependent and looks like weakest route after this. Without connection data, JFK-BOS looked like the far and way best performing route of the 3. Now, I see all 3 as below system average routes just in terms of yields.

DL on BOS-LGA no longer looks like an above average route after adjusting for connection traffic and the heavy regional usage. UA's numbers on BOS-EWR look pretty good since they are running all mainline on there. It'd be interesting to see how this changes when B6 goes up to 10x daily. I'd expect their Non-stop fare numbers to go up, but they'd probably have lower Load factor or NS% to fill up the cabins. And given that EWR/LGA perform about the same for similar number of flights, I'd hope they also continue to add to EWR after the current JFK slot issues go away.

FLL,
CityPairCarrier LF Dep PerFlt NSFare ConnF % NS Yield Vs B6
FLLJFK B6 88.21 1096 188.6 178.74 134.69 74.43 147.73 100
FLLJFK DL 89.28 0662 174.6 169.87 110.24 82.8 142.50 96.46
FLLLGA B6 86.07 0733 144.3 180.47 123.04 88.86 149.83 100
FLLLGA DL 88.35 0821 163.3 179.82 117.33 91.74 154.31 102.98
EWRFLL B6 90.34 0563 151.2 184.92 131.39 81.05 157.89 100
EWRFLL UA 90.01 1020 174.9 183.41 128.95 85.97 158.21 100.2
The surprising part for me here is that connection traffic on JFK-FLL didn't hurt its oveall yield that much. Given the heavy usage of A321s out of JFK and the higher capacity there, it's still the most profitable of the 3 routes. Also, it's surprising that EWR-FLL has higher yield than LGA-FLL. Given their yields are about the same as UA out of EWR (albeit on lower capacity aircraft), it shows B6 does have quite a bit of pricing power across the hudson. As FLL lose flights out of LGA to BOS this summer, JFK and EWR are getting most of that capacity. I'd expect that to be good for their profitability. Again with Fare Option 2.0 and most refreshed A320s entering service, they should be gaining in competitiveness on routes like EWR-FLL.

MCO,
CityPairCarrier LF Dep PerFlt NSFare ConnF % NS Yield Vs B6
JFKMCO B6 86.49 1513 183.6 174.72 116.65 86.48 144.33 100
JFKMCO DL 89.52 0808 185.5 179.50 107.11 74.97 144.47 100.1
LGAMCO B6 86.51 0713 150.7 169.36 127.58 95.58 144.92 100
LGAMCO DL 87.90 0914 189.8 171.13 109.98 90.11 145.11 100.13
EWRMCO B6 89.59 1033 152.5 164.65 108.67 94.77 144.88 100
EWRMCO UA 87.73 1576 169.3 181.59 116.23 81.94 148.96 102.82
Similar to FLL, JFK numbers here still look the best after factoring in connections. Notice how both DL and UA have upgauged on all their NYC area MCO flights. That's something B6 would need to do to keep its cost advantage on them. As a whole, both LGA/EWR-MCO are still profitable routes, although not as much as FLL.

PBI,
CityPairCarrier LF Dep PerFlt NSFare ConnF % NS Yield Vs B6
JFKPBI B6 84.85 0467 174.4 162.33 136.18 89.26 135.36 100
JFKPBI DL 88.05 0223 132.9 167.67 110.28 84.62 139.86 103.32
LGAPBI B6 85.94 0521 151.5 171.39 115.72 98.84 146.74 100
LGAPBI DL 87.10 0671 133.4 185.70 119.15 87.37 154.43 105.24
EWRPBI B6 85.28 0353 152.9 170.37 186.65 96.68 145.76 100
EWRPBI UA 87.22 0754 157.7 188.45 135.36 85.17 157.50 108.05
The numbers are a lot closer here after adjusting for connections and aircraft Costs. Keep in mind that DL is still running mostly small narrowbody here and EWR looks to be medium sized narrowbody, so B6 performance on EWR/LGA-PBI look pretty reasonable.

SJU,
CityPairCarrier LF Dep PerFlt NSFare ConnF % NS Yield Vs B6
JFKSJU B6 82.76 1155 182.3 217.77 156.04 84.57 172.35 100
JFKSJU DL 88.63 0553 179.9 218.22 136.37 76.54 176.40 102.35
EWRSJU B6 87.76 0433 150.6 224.97 207.77 90.8 196.04 100
EWRSJU UA 89.72 0281 219.6 245.22 136.74 63.35 184.35 94.04
this to me is quite interesting. After adjusting for connections, B6 is doing quite well out of EWR-SJU even accounting for the usage of medium narrowbody aircraft vs the more A321s on JFK-SJU. To me, it looks like they did not running enough VFR flights out of EWR last summer and not enough with A321s. That explains why they've added so many PR/DR VFR flights out of EWR this summer.

Overall, their performances out of EWR look pretty good vs JFK/LGA. They should continue to add to EWR if they can. EWR-FLL looks seriously underserved based on the data we have available. And it appears to me that LGA actually does the worst to Florida. If I were JetBlue, I'd use whatever additional LGA slots I get on short haul business routes. To me, there is no need to keep more than FLL around at LGA. They already have abundance of PBI flights out of EWR/HPN/JFK that serve those who live in Brooklyn/Long Island, Westchester, CT and central/western Jersey that own second homes in west palm beach. I don't think they are losing much if they drop LGA-PBI. MCO also seem to do better out of JFK and just as well out of EWR.

Also, based on these data, I think EWR can support other routes that do well out of JFK like KIN, daily BGI, MBJ, LAS, MSY and of course mint stuff.



Thank you so much for sharing this data! May I ask, when is this data for?

this is Q3 data. Q4 data will be out early April.
 
tphuang
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sat Feb 29, 2020 2:13 pm

Long week. Both JetBlue and Alaska this week announced that they are waiving change/cancel fees from the next couple of weeks for flight up until June 1st. No doubt in my mind, this indicates a sudden drop in demand for domestic travel that start this week. A lot of firms have been revising corporate travel policy to tell its employees to consider not doing any domestic travel even and definitely not flying to Asia or Italy. At this pace of growth, rest of continental Europe (especially France and Germany) might be facing elevated levels soon too.

I would think the most effected airlines from this will be UA and DL given their higher level of flying on their own metal to Asia and Continental Europe along with their dependence on corporate travel spending. But I think as a whole, we are going to see lower level of domestic growth for this summer or even cutting back. JonNYC, a very good source on AA stuff, has mentioned that there will be domestic cuts coming at AA. Given what has happened this week, that seems like the obvious move for every airline. AA, given it's low stock prices and margins, is probably the first that will do so, but other airlines are going to follow I think.

Given the decline in corporate travel, leisure travel, conferences, trade shows and risk to global trading, there is a fairly high likelihood of slowdown this year that kicks into recession. I've been waiting to see what the domestic carriers do in the even of dramatic slowdown in travel, esepcially from corporate travel spending. We are about to see that soon. There is a whole list of routes that I know are under perfoming for various carriers that I have been documenting here. We will see which ones stick around.
 
USAavdork
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sat Feb 29, 2020 5:28 pm

Business travel is definitely going to be affected by this. There is a huge trade show in Anaheim, CA this coming week- 80,000 people attending. Some of the biggest companies are already pulling out and my partners company will make a decision Monday morning. Businesses are giving their employees the option to travel or not. I think business routes are going to take a huge hot, especially depending on how long this last.

With that said, Tphuang, in your opinion, what would could you see B6 cut? Do you think they are going to be hot hard by this?
 
tphuang
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sat Feb 29, 2020 5:55 pm

USAavdork wrote:
Business travel is definitely going to be affected by this. There is a huge trade show in Anaheim, CA this coming week- 80,000 people attending. Some of the biggest companies are already pulling out and my partners company will make a decision Monday morning. Businesses are giving their employees the option to travel or not. I think business routes are going to take a huge hot, especially depending on how long this last.

With that said, Tphuang, in your opinion, what would could you see B6 cut? Do you think they are going to be hot hard by this?


Exactly, the hysteria over this is getting out of control. Up until now, B6 had said their bookings have not been affected. And then this week, they suddenly started offering the waiver/cancel policy.

It really depends on how long this lasts. They have already cut a lot of obvious under performing routes. Most of the remaining underperforming stuff are routes ran for political reasons or for network building reasons (especially at BOS). The easy cuts that are left are probably a lot of MCO ones like MCO-LAX/AUS/ATL, more LGB stuff, some FLL stuff that they are struggling in like HAV/PHX/SXM/SLC. I think they are going to keep JFK and BOS stuff more or less in tact. I've already discussed which JFK routes are weak, so I won't rehash myself. If things gets really bad, I could see BOS-MSP get cut or become seasonal. BOS-SYR/ROC can't really support 2 carriers. So either AA or B6 quit on them eventually.
 
CobaltScar
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sat Feb 29, 2020 7:56 pm

I wonder if we will look back on this period and say that is what ushered in the new round of mergers. First the max issues and now coronavirus.

B6 stock is fast becoming a bargain.
 
tphuang
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sun Mar 01, 2020 1:12 am

Well JBLU maybe down to $4.5 billion, but SAVE is down to $1.95 billion, ALK at 6.2 billion, UAL at $15 billion and AAL is at $8 billion. Everyone is down. And if JBLU have enough cash in the bank and things get bad in the airline industry, maybe it's time for them to make a bid for SAVE in a few months if margins start to get tight there. NK has gone on a high growth mode when the airline industry is heading in the wrong direction. Really terrible timing for them.

You keep wanting someone to buy JBLU. Seriously, just give it up. Anything could happen. It's not like JBLU is losing value when everyone else is gaining value.
 
BlueBaller
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sun Mar 01, 2020 2:56 am

tphuang wrote:
Well JBLU maybe down to $4.5 billion, but SAVE is down to $1.95 billion, ALK at 6.2 billion, UAL at $15 billion and AAL is at $8 billion. Everyone is down. And if JBLU have enough cash in the bank and things get bad in the airline industry, maybe it's time for them to make a bid for SAVE in a few months if margins start to get tight there. NK has gone on a high growth mode when the airline industry is heading in the wrong direction. Really terrible timing for them.

You keep wanting someone to buy JBLU. Seriously, just give it up. Anything could happen. It's not like JBLU is losing value when everyone else is gaining value.


CobaltScar is an "overworked, underpaid" scarred by (jet)Blue flight attendant that is probably looking for an easy street path to a legacy without having to go through the process of reapplying and starting all over again. A merger with the likes of a United or Delta with a big NYC presence where s/he doesn't have to Blueturn or work 15 hour domestic duty days is where all the motivation lies.
 
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jfklganyc
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sun Mar 01, 2020 3:10 am

I cant believe the declarations of downturn on this forum

Go to your local mall tomorrow.

People everywhere.

The US isnt China. There isnt going to be a massive lockdown.

At some point this week or next, people will learn to live with the hysteria in their day to day lives...much like the mass shootings during sunday mass or at your local movie theater.

The US just plows on.

AS/NK/F9/B6 and domestic flying is a good spot for this event
 
JoseSalazar
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sun Mar 01, 2020 7:58 am

Does the slower travel resulting from COVID-19 fears give B6 an opportunity to push more planes through interior mods faster, including the leased Thomas Cook a321s? I say this since it sounded like the Thomas cook planes would fly around with the Thomas cook interiors for a while and the 320 refurbishment was going to be slowed a bit into 2021. Seems like this could be a good opportunity to go ahead and take care of the cook planes, at least, if the capacity isn’t needed in the system.
 
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ChrisNH38
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sun Mar 01, 2020 2:14 pm

jfklganyc wrote:
I cant believe the declarations of downturn on this forum

Go to your local mall tomorrow.

People everywhere.

The US isnt China. There isnt going to be a massive lockdown.

At some point this week or next, people will learn to live with the hysteria in their day to day lives...much like the mass shootings during sunday mass or at your local movie theater.

The US just plows on.

AS/NK/F9/B6 and domestic flying is a good spot for this event


I agree. In my opinion, this will all subside once the warm weather returns. Indeed, airlines are slowing down schedules into April...not into infinity.
https://my.flightradar24.com/ChrisNH
 
tphuang
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sun Mar 01, 2020 2:24 pm

Well, the downturn in the corporate travel budget is real. It really only just began this week and accelerated the last 2 or 3 days. I don't think the airlines have complete handles on the short term impact yet, but I would expect some near term cuts. After that, we will have to see. Really depends on how these earning calls go.

From this week, JFK ATL gets a 3rd flight for may. Really wish they can make this year round.

BTW one product of this new aa DL battle is that less attention from DL to Boston right now. Which I am sure JetBlue is happy about.
 
727LOVER
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sun Mar 01, 2020 4:26 pm

Here's an article about B6's first 20 years. It was written by a gentleman in one of my Facebook groups.

https://www.cnn.com/travel/article/jetb ... 4U3lAHH3As
"We must accept finite disappointment, but never lose infinite hope." - Martin Luther King, Jr.
 
ClipperGoodwill
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sun Mar 01, 2020 5:21 pm

What payments are B6 suppose to be making for the MCO South Terminal? B6 is not building it. They will be a tenant just like any other airline that uses the terminal. The only payments being made concerning the new MCO South Terminal are being made by GOAA, FAA and FDOT.
You can't beat the Experience.
 
CaptCoolHand
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sun Mar 01, 2020 6:11 pm

ClipperGoodwill wrote:
What payments are B6 suppose to be making for the MCO South Terminal? B6 is not building it. They will be a tenant just like any other airline that uses the terminal. The only payments being made concerning the new MCO South Terminal are being made by GOAA, FAA and FDOT.


There’s no mention of any payments on the 8k or 10k.
I think that was nothing more than a rumor from a bus ride.
 
tphuang
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Mon Mar 02, 2020 10:36 pm

Alright, so looking at what's happening in this AA/AS vs DL tussel in SEA, I hope JetBlue route planning department takes this opportunity to stay as far away from this tumble as possible. Getting a partnership with UA would be nice, but that takes time to pull together. Until then, they could do well by keeping a low profile. I think they should not make any new announcements that would not put themselves in crosshair of DL/AA unless they are provoked. As much as I would like to see it, that means don't go into JFK-MSP/DFW. Maybe stick with adding more JFK VFR stuff if they want to expand more there. Amongst new domestic cities, STL seems like the best market to enter out of BOS/JFK. WN with MAX issues and struggle in BOS is not in a great position to hurt JetBlue anywhere.

With the current decline in air travel, I think you will see more AA drops out of JFK and possibly BOS-SYR/ROC. I also think DL will drop JFK-KIN and possibly cut back on JFK-PR/DR VFR flights.
 
Nicknuzzii
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Mon Mar 02, 2020 10:49 pm

tphuang wrote:
Alright, so looking at what's happening in this AA/AS vs DL tussel in SEA, I hope JetBlue route planning department takes this opportunity to stay as far away from this tumble as possible. Getting a partnership with UA would be nice, but that takes time to pull together. Until then, they could do well by keeping a low profile. I think they should not make any new announcements that would not put themselves in crosshair of DL/AA unless they are provoked. As much as I would like to see it, that means don't go into JFK-MSP/DFW. Maybe stick with adding more JFK VFR stuff if they want to expand more there. Amongst new domestic cities, STL seems like the best market to enter out of BOS/JFK. WN with MAX issues and struggle in BOS is not in a great position to hurt JetBlue anywhere.

With the current decline in air travel, I think you will see more AA drops out of JFK and possibly BOS-SYR/ROC. I also think DL will drop JFK-KIN and possibly cut back on JFK-PR/DR VFR flights.


A JetBlue and United partnership would be nice. I saw how you said it would take long to form but I found it interesting how talks of AA and AS partnership only began in mid December.
 
CobaltScar
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Mon Mar 02, 2020 11:32 pm

JoseSalazar wrote:
Does the slower travel resulting from COVID-19 fears give B6 an opportunity to push more planes through interior mods faster, including the leased Thomas Cook a321s? I say this since it sounded like the Thomas cook planes would fly around with the Thomas cook interiors for a while and the 320 refurbishment was going to be slowed a bit into 2021. Seems like this could be a good opportunity to go ahead and take care of the cook planes, at least, if the capacity isn’t needed in the system.



Rumor has it the lease company won't allow the interiors to be changed.
 
nine4nine
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Tue Mar 03, 2020 12:06 am

CobaltScar wrote:
JoseSalazar wrote:
Does the slower travel resulting from COVID-19 fears give B6 an opportunity to push more planes through interior mods faster, including the leased Thomas Cook a321s? I say this since it sounded like the Thomas cook planes would fly around with the Thomas cook interiors for a while and the 320 refurbishment was going to be slowed a bit into 2021. Seems like this could be a good opportunity to go ahead and take care of the cook planes, at least, if the capacity isn’t needed in the system.



Rumor has it the lease company won't allow the interiors to be changed.


Let’s hope they are strictly used on over water Caribbean flights where the IFE is out of coverage range.
717, 727-100, 727-200, 732, 733, 734, 735, 73G, 738, 739, 742, 748, 752, 753, 762, 763, 772, 77W, 787-10, DC9, MD80/88/90, DC10, 319, 220-300, 320, 321, 321n, 332, 333, CS100, CRJ200, Q400, E175, E190, ERJ145, EMB120
 
tphuang
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Tue Mar 03, 2020 12:24 am

CobaltScar wrote:
JoseSalazar wrote:
Does the slower travel resulting from COVID-19 fears give B6 an opportunity to push more planes through interior mods faster, including the leased Thomas Cook a321s? I say this since it sounded like the Thomas cook planes would fly around with the Thomas cook interiors for a while and the 320 refurbishment was going to be slowed a bit into 2021. Seems like this could be a good opportunity to go ahead and take care of the cook planes, at least, if the capacity isn’t needed in the system.



Rumor has it the lease company won't allow the interiors to be changed.


What is your source on that? Your recent rumours seem to be pretty off base to say the least. Seems like the email said that it will be modified later but not right away. A lease company not allowing interior to be changed sounds like the dumbest thing a lease company can do.

I think the impending travel slowdown is going to give them opportunity to refurbish these A321s sooner.
 
flyby519
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Tue Mar 03, 2020 1:52 am

CobaltScar wrote:
JoseSalazar wrote:
Does the slower travel resulting from COVID-19 fears give B6 an opportunity to push more planes through interior mods faster, including the leased Thomas Cook a321s? I say this since it sounded like the Thomas cook planes would fly around with the Thomas cook interiors for a while and the 320 refurbishment was going to be slowed a bit into 2021. Seems like this could be a good opportunity to go ahead and take care of the cook planes, at least, if the capacity isn’t needed in the system.



Rumor has it the lease company won't allow the interiors to be changed.


That sounds like a BS reason to me.

In all reality I wouldn't be surprised if B6 mgmt actually wanted to fly these 220 seaters around and see the public response. Think of it as a trial balloon for future densification of the B6 321HD config.
 
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jfklganyc
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Tue Mar 03, 2020 2:42 am

The interiors of planes are the least of their worries with this virus

Loads are ugly
 
CobaltScar
Posts: 748
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Tue Mar 03, 2020 2:46 am

tphuang wrote:
What is your source on that? Your recent rumours seem to be pretty off base to say the least.


I've been off base? You are confusing me with others I think. This is a internet discussion board, I don't have to provide citations, especially for reporting exactly what I did: a rumor that at the very most 20 seats will be taken out of these air-frames and thats it. And maybe not even that.

flyby519 wrote:
In all reality I wouldn't be surprised if B6 mgmt actually wanted to fly these 220 seaters around and see the public response. Think of it as a trial balloon for future densification of the B6 321HD config.


This may well be a unintended consequence. They might see how much better CASM is on them and it sets wheels in motion. We will see.
 
DELTA777
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Thu Mar 05, 2020 12:10 am

Expect details regarding temporary network and frequency changes due to COVID-19 soon.
 
tphuang
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Thu Mar 05, 2020 12:24 am

That's expected. Maybe they will now have time to actually configure those leased A321s.

I'd imagine there will be some island cutting for sure.
 
nine4nine
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Thu Mar 05, 2020 8:10 pm

https://thepointsguy.com/news/jetblue-f ... D896E8478F

B6 will announce a 5% cut in the coming days. LGB finally on the chopping block?
717, 727-100, 727-200, 732, 733, 734, 735, 73G, 738, 739, 742, 748, 752, 753, 762, 763, 772, 77W, 787-10, DC9, MD80/88/90, DC10, 319, 220-300, 320, 321, 321n, 332, 333, CS100, CRJ200, Q400, E175, E190, ERJ145, EMB120
 
CaptCoolHand
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Fri Mar 06, 2020 1:41 pm

nine4nine wrote:
https://thepointsguy.com/news/jetblue-flight-cuts-coronavirus/?utm_source=facebook&utm_campaign=facebook&utm_term=Editorial&utm_medium=social&utm_content=33EAE2E6-5EE6-11EA-9F01-24D896E8478F

B6 will announce a 5% cut in the coming days. LGB finally on the chopping block?



I hope they're taking this opportunity to catch up on some much needed housekeeping issues.

This media fed "crisis" will pass just like every other one from H1n1, to swine flu, to avian bird flu, to pick
your last end of the world pandemic that we somehow managed to make it through.
 
11C
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Fri Mar 06, 2020 4:00 pm

CaptCoolHand wrote:
nine4nine wrote:
https://thepointsguy.com/news/jetblue-flight-cuts-coronavirus/?utm_source=facebook&utm_campaign=facebook&utm_term=Editorial&utm_medium=social&utm_content=33EAE2E6-5EE6-11EA-9F01-24D896E8478F

B6 will announce a 5% cut in the coming days. LGB finally on the chopping block?



I hope they're taking this opportunity to catch up on some much needed housekeeping issues.

This media fed "crisis" will pass just like every other one from H1n1, to swine flu, to avian bird flu, to pick
your last end of the world pandemic that we somehow managed to make it through.


If you read about the Spanish Flu, I think you can see why a pandemic has to be taken seriously. Granted, we have many more tools at our disposal to combat infectious diseases, but taking them lightly is not really a smart option.
 
nine4nine
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Fri Mar 06, 2020 5:27 pm

11C wrote:
CaptCoolHand wrote:
nine4nine wrote:
https://thepointsguy.com/news/jetblue-flight-cuts-coronavirus/?utm_source=facebook&utm_campaign=facebook&utm_term=Editorial&utm_medium=social&utm_content=33EAE2E6-5EE6-11EA-9F01-24D896E8478F

B6 will announce a 5% cut in the coming days. LGB finally on the chopping block?



I hope they're taking this opportunity to catch up on some much needed housekeeping issues.

This media fed "crisis" will pass just like every other one from H1n1, to swine flu, to avian bird flu, to pick
your last end of the world pandemic that we somehow managed to make it through.


If you read about the Spanish Flu, I think you can see why a pandemic has to be taken seriously. Granted, we have many more tools at our disposal to combat infectious diseases, but taking them lightly is not really a smart option.



Give it a few months when Temps rise and cold/flu season is over and this will go the way of SARS, MERS, Bird Flu, Swine Flu, etc..... media sensationalism is the driving factor here and it all boils down to the person in office that the media and some World governments would love to see gone. The only thing that can hurt that mans chances of a re-election at this point is a bad economy. Thousands maybe hundreds of thousands may have it or may have unknowingly had it and not been tested which would drive its fatality rate down near the .01 percent like the common flu.

Support your airlines, hotels etc and don’t hold back from booking And fulfilling your travel plans! If you are elderly or have immune Disorders stay home. Take extra precautions, practice good hygiene you will all be fine. Keep flying friends!
717, 727-100, 727-200, 732, 733, 734, 735, 73G, 738, 739, 742, 748, 752, 753, 762, 763, 772, 77W, 787-10, DC9, MD80/88/90, DC10, 319, 220-300, 320, 321, 321n, 332, 333, CS100, CRJ200, Q400, E175, E190, ERJ145, EMB120
 
11C
Posts: 162
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sat Mar 07, 2020 12:27 am

nine4nine wrote:
11C wrote:
CaptCoolHand wrote:


I hope they're taking this opportunity to catch up on some much needed housekeeping issues.

This media fed "crisis" will pass just like every other one from H1n1, to swine flu, to avian bird flu, to pick
your last end of the world pandemic that we somehow managed to make it through.


If you read about the Spanish Flu, I think you can see why a pandemic has to be taken seriously. Granted, we have many more tools at our disposal to combat infectious diseases, but taking them lightly is not really a smart option.



Give it a few months when Temps rise and cold/flu season is over and this will go the way of SARS, MERS, Bird Flu, Swine Flu, etc..... media sensationalism is the driving factor here and it all boils down to the person in office that the media and some World governments would love to see gone. The only thing that can hurt that mans chances of a re-election at this point is a bad economy. Thousands maybe hundreds of thousands may have it or may have unknowingly had it and not been tested which would drive its fatality rate down near the .01 percent like the common flu.

Support your airlines, hotels etc and don’t hold back from booking And fulfilling your travel plans! If you are elderly or have immune Disorders stay home. Take extra precautions, practice good hygiene you will all be fine. Keep flying friends!

I’m glad you’re not a doctor, but we should really be listening to the CDC, not someone’s talking points.
 
tphuang
Posts: 5298
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sat Mar 07, 2020 2:04 am

Another week gone by and things aren't improving for the airlines. Looking at JetBlue, it has 1.3 billion in free cash flow and 750 million in revolving creeit, so a lot of cash where they should be able to stay afloat for quite a long time even if this virus drags on for months. It also helps that they own their aircraft so can always sell them to raise cash if things get tough. With their available capital, it's good time to use that in negotiations with possible partnership with aa or ua.

Also, delta is adding Bo's mem. This JetBlue slowness in adding markets to the middle of the country is really quite frustrating. They are missing out on a lot of places with demand and not overserved.

My guess on possible cuts. Palm springs season end early. Hdn ends early. Reno gets cut for a few months from JFK. Lax mco, Bo's bur get cut for this time. And then a lot of off peak cuts I would assume.
 
Planeboy17
Posts: 439
Joined: Tue Feb 06, 2018 2:18 am

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sat Mar 07, 2020 2:19 am

nine4nine wrote:
11C wrote:
CaptCoolHand wrote:


I hope they're taking this opportunity to catch up on some much needed housekeeping issues.

This media fed "crisis" will pass just like every other one from H1n1, to swine flu, to avian bird flu, to pick
your last end of the world pandemic that we somehow managed to make it through.


If you read about the Spanish Flu, I think you can see why a pandemic has to be taken seriously. Granted, we have many more tools at our disposal to combat infectious diseases, but taking them lightly is not really a smart option.



Give it a few months when Temps rise and cold/flu season is over and this will go the way of SARS, MERS, Bird Flu, Swine Flu, etc..... media sensationalism is the driving factor here and it all boils down to the person in office that the media and some World governments would love to see gone. The only thing that can hurt that mans chances of a re-election at this point is a bad economy. Thousands maybe hundreds of thousands may have it or may have unknowingly had it and not been tested which would drive its fatality rate down near the .01 percent like the common flu.

Support your airlines, hotels etc and don’t hold back from booking And fulfilling your travel plans! If you are elderly or have immune Disorders stay home. Take extra precautions, practice good hygiene you will all be fine. Keep flying friends!

So just to make sure I’m not misunderstanding you, this virus is nothing more than a hyped up version of the flu made up for no other reason than to ruin the re-election of a sitting President?
Wow. Thanks for your completely objective opinion.
 
Mboyle1988
Posts: 81
Joined: Sun Feb 25, 2018 4:38 am

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sat Mar 07, 2020 3:53 am

Planeboy17 wrote:
nine4nine wrote:
11C wrote:

If you read about the Spanish Flu, I think you can see why a pandemic has to be taken seriously. Granted, we have many more tools at our disposal to combat infectious diseases, but taking them lightly is not really a smart option.



Give it a few months when Temps rise and cold/flu season is over and this will go the way of SARS, MERS, Bird Flu, Swine Flu, etc..... media sensationalism is the driving factor here and it all boils down to the person in office that the media and some World governments would love to see gone. The only thing that can hurt that mans chances of a re-election at this point is a bad economy. Thousands maybe hundreds of thousands may have it or may have unknowingly had it and not been tested which would drive its fatality rate down near the .01 percent like the common flu.

Support your airlines, hotels etc and don’t hold back from booking And fulfilling your travel plans! If you are elderly or have immune Disorders stay home. Take extra precautions, practice good hygiene you will all be fine. Keep flying friends!

So just to make sure I’m not misunderstanding you, this virus is nothing more than a hyped up version of the flu made up for no other reason than to ruin the re-election of a sitting President?
Wow. Thanks for your completely objective opinion.


We have these bugs every few years that arise out of China and everyone acts like the world is ending but yet the world goes on. If you are under 70, you are more likely to die driving your car than from COVID19.
 
njdevilsin03
Posts: 673
Joined: Wed Apr 14, 2004 2:03 am

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sun Mar 08, 2020 4:23 pm

I’m trying to research FLL-SAN end of September. The non stop appears gone is it just not loaded yet that far into the future?
717, 727, 731, 732, 733, 734, 735, 73G, 738, 752, 753, 762, 763, 777, DC9, MD80, DC10, L1011, ERJ, CRJ, ATR, DH8, A300,
 
MAH4546
Posts: 26252
Joined: Wed Jan 24, 2001 1:44 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sun Mar 08, 2020 5:48 pm

njdevilsin03 wrote:
I’m trying to research FLL-SAN end of September. The non stop appears gone is it just not loaded yet that far into the future?


It’s there. It’s sub-daily during Sept/Oct.
a.
 
tphuang
Posts: 5298
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Mon Mar 09, 2020 1:01 am

Alright, a lot of changes for JFK this week. My theory is that AA maybe leasing them some slots, because they just added another 15 flights here for summer season and AA cut over 30 flights for the same time this week.

I don't know if that's what this is, but that's a lot of growth out of JFK. They have scheduled about 195 flights a day in the peak season now. Looks like cuts to FLL, MCO and PR to allow for these additional adds. Again, not sure if they had these slots all along and not using 50 of them for most of the year or they got some new ones. Pretty crazy if it's the former.

Either way, a lot of reasonable adds that if they can hold on to the slots, they could use them later on other routes as they get more aircraft.
While I wonder if it will fly, this looks like a JFK increase which I assume is tied to AA's continued poor slot usage at JFK.
B6 ANU-JFK JUL 0.6>0.9[0.5] AUG 0.5>0.8[0.6]
B6 ATL-JFK JUN 2>3[2] JUL 1.9>3[2] AUG 1.8>3[2]
B6 BOS-CHS JUN 2>1.7[2] JUL 2>1.1[2] AUG 2>1.2[2]
B6 BOS-DEN JUN 3>1.9[1.9]
B6 BOS-JFK JUL 6>7[5] AUG 6>7[5]
B6 BOS-ORD JUL 6>5[5] AUG 6>5[5]
B6 BOS-PBI JUN 3>4[3]
B6 BOS-PDX JUN 1.3>0.7[1.1]
B6 BOS-SJC JUN 1.6>1.0[0.9]
B6 BQN-MCO MAY 1.9>1.4[1.5] JUN 3.0>2.0[2.0] JUL 3.0>2.0[2.0] AUG 3.0>2.0[1.1]
B6 DEN-JFK MAY 2>3[1.6]
B6 FLL-JAX JUL 4>3[3]
B6 FLL-LAS MAY 2>1.2[1.0]
B6 FLL-MBJ JUL 3>2[2] AUG 3>2[2]
B6 FLL-NAS JUL 4>3[4] AUG 4>3[4]
B6 FLL-PAP JUN 2>1.8[3]
B6 FLL-RDU JUN 1.9>1.2[2] JUL 2>1.0[2]
B6 FLL-RIC MAY 1.0>0.7[1.7]
B6 JFK-KIN JUL 4>5[4] AUG 4>5[4]
B6 JFK-LAX MAY 11>12[11]
B6 JFK-MBJ JUN 2.0>3[2] JUL 2>3[3] AUG 2>3[4]
B6 JFK-MCO MAY 8>9[8] JUN 8>9[7] JUL 9>10[9]
B6 JFK-ONT JUN 1.0>1.3[1.0] JUL 1.0>1.4[1.0] AUG 1.0>1.4[1.0]
B6 JFK-ORD MAY 1.8>3[2] JUN 1.9>3[2] JUL 1.9>3[2] AUG 1.8>3[2]
B6 JFK-PLS JUL 1.1>1.4[1.0] AUG 1.2>1.4[1.0]
B6 JFK-PWM JUL 3>4[3] AUG 3>4[3]
B6 JFK-RDU JUN 2>3[2] JUL 2>3[2] AUG 2>3[2]
B6 JFK-SDQ MAY 5>6[5]
B6 JFK-SFO JUL 6>7[6] AUG 6>7[6]
B6 JFK-SMF JUN 1.0>1.4[1.0] JUL 1.0>1.5[1.0] AUG 1.0>1.5[1.0]
B6 JFK-STI JUL 7>8[8] AUG 7>8[8]
B6 JFK-TPA JUL 3>4[3] AUG 3>4[3]
B6 JFK-UVF JUN 1.0>1.3[1.1] JUL 1.1>1.5[1.0] AUG 1.2>1.6[1.0]
B6 SJU-TPA JUN 1.7>1.0[2.0] JUL 2.0>1.0[2.0] AUG 2.0>1.0[1.5]
 
flyby519
Posts: 1574
Joined: Tue Jul 24, 2007 3:31 am

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Mon Mar 09, 2020 1:14 am

tphuang wrote:
Alright, a lot of changes for JFK this week. My theory is that AA maybe leasing them some slots, because they just added another 15 flights here for summer season and AA cut over 30 flights for the same time this week.

I don't know if that's what this is, but that's a lot of growth out of JFK. They have scheduled about 195 flights a day in the peak season now. Looks like cuts to FLL, MCO and PR to allow for these additional adds. Again, not sure if they had these slots all along and not using 50 of them for most of the year or they got some new ones. Pretty crazy if it's the former.

Either way, a lot of reasonable adds that if they can hold on to the slots, they could use them later on other routes as they get more aircraft.
While I wonder if it will fly, this looks like a JFK increase which I assume is tied to AA's continued poor slot usage at JFK.
B6 ANU-JFK JUL 0.6>0.9[0.5] AUG 0.5>0.8[0.6]
B6 ATL-JFK JUN 2>3[2] JUL 1.9>3[2] AUG 1.8>3[2]
B6 BOS-CHS JUN 2>1.7[2] JUL 2>1.1[2] AUG 2>1.2[2]
B6 BOS-DEN JUN 3>1.9[1.9]
B6 BOS-JFK JUL 6>7[5] AUG 6>7[5]
B6 BOS-ORD JUL 6>5[5] AUG 6>5[5]
B6 BOS-PBI JUN 3>4[3]
B6 BOS-PDX JUN 1.3>0.7[1.1]
B6 BOS-SJC JUN 1.6>1.0[0.9]
B6 BQN-MCO MAY 1.9>1.4[1.5] JUN 3.0>2.0[2.0] JUL 3.0>2.0[2.0] AUG 3.0>2.0[1.1]
B6 DEN-JFK MAY 2>3[1.6]
B6 FLL-JAX JUL 4>3[3]
B6 FLL-LAS MAY 2>1.2[1.0]
B6 FLL-MBJ JUL 3>2[2] AUG 3>2[2]
B6 FLL-NAS JUL 4>3[4] AUG 4>3[4]
B6 FLL-PAP JUN 2>1.8[3]
B6 FLL-RDU JUN 1.9>1.2[2] JUL 2>1.0[2]
B6 FLL-RIC MAY 1.0>0.7[1.7]
B6 JFK-KIN JUL 4>5[4] AUG 4>5[4]
B6 JFK-LAX MAY 11>12[11]
B6 JFK-MBJ JUN 2.0>3[2] JUL 2>3[3] AUG 2>3[4]
B6 JFK-MCO MAY 8>9[8] JUN 8>9[7] JUL 9>10[9]
B6 JFK-ONT JUN 1.0>1.3[1.0] JUL 1.0>1.4[1.0] AUG 1.0>1.4[1.0]
B6 JFK-ORD MAY 1.8>3[2] JUN 1.9>3[2] JUL 1.9>3[2] AUG 1.8>3[2]
B6 JFK-PLS JUL 1.1>1.4[1.0] AUG 1.2>1.4[1.0]
B6 JFK-PWM JUL 3>4[3] AUG 3>4[3]
B6 JFK-RDU JUN 2>3[2] JUL 2>3[2] AUG 2>3[2]
B6 JFK-SDQ MAY 5>6[5]
B6 JFK-SFO JUL 6>7[6] AUG 6>7[6]
B6 JFK-SMF JUN 1.0>1.4[1.0] JUL 1.0>1.5[1.0] AUG 1.0>1.5[1.0]
B6 JFK-STI JUL 7>8[8] AUG 7>8[8]
B6 JFK-TPA JUL 3>4[3] AUG 3>4[3]
B6 JFK-UVF JUN 1.0>1.3[1.1] JUL 1.1>1.5[1.0] AUG 1.2>1.6[1.0]
B6 SJU-TPA JUN 1.7>1.0[2.0] JUL 2.0>1.0[2.0] AUG 2.0>1.0[1.5]


Doesn't seem to be a lot of unusual cuts considering they announced a 5% reduction due to coronavirus. Am I missing something?
 
tphuang
Posts: 5298
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Mon Mar 09, 2020 2:42 am

Maybe they don't want to show their hand yet on which routes will see reduction, before DL loads in their reductions. My guess is that DL will have to reduce capacity any day now since they are hurt from this almost as much as UA.

Also, looks like they are adding a second flight on 3 to 4 days a week to SMF and ONT. I can't seem to find the 2nd flight times on google flights yet, but I assume it appeared somewhere since people on SMF thread saw the times. With oil price dropping to $30 a barrel, that should buffet some of the reduced yields that I'm sure JetBlue will see for a while. They should take every opportunity to lock in fuel purchase at this price if they could. I don't think price will get any lower than this.


Remember:
Low fuel prices favor LCC/ULCC
strong demand for travel/corporate spending favors legacies.

With such low fuel cost, a lot of the red-eye transcon flights become more profitable.

If they only could get a 2nd gates at ORD, then they would be able to add flight to both BOS/JFK from there. JFK-KIN at 5xdaily is the highest they've ever been. Again, try to chase DL off here. I don't think it's too far away.

JFK-DEN is seeing a 3rd flight in May. Don't think I've ever seen it that high.
 
Brianpr3
Posts: 38
Joined: Tue Feb 27, 2018 7:34 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Mon Mar 09, 2020 5:07 pm

I was having a hard time in terms of booking to reno what is the schedule and yet when i follow the schedule i get nothing available. Are they considering whacking RNO?
Brian
 
Brianpr3
Posts: 38
Joined: Tue Feb 27, 2018 7:34 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Mon Mar 09, 2020 5:39 pm

Also while i am here when does Jetblue open booking till the end of the year
Brian
 
tphuang
Posts: 5298
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Mon Mar 09, 2020 10:08 pm

Brianpr3 wrote:
I was having a hard time in terms of booking to reno what is the schedule and yet when i follow the schedule i get nothing available. Are they considering whacking RNO?


it's possible that's happening in near term due to coronavirus. Not sure, wait a few days. I have not seen any evidence they are giving up RNO permanently. Although it's not out of realm of possibilities.

Also, they will probably extend to end of year in late April imo.
 
cpl22586
Posts: 84
Joined: Thu Jun 28, 2012 1:39 am

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Mon Mar 09, 2020 10:53 pm

Brianpr3 wrote:
I was having a hard time in terms of booking to reno what is the schedule and yet when i follow the schedule i get nothing available. Are they considering whacking RNO?


Jetblue currently has no plans of closing any stations.
 
dtremit
Posts: 164
Joined: Thu Oct 21, 2004 1:08 am

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Tue Mar 10, 2020 11:38 pm

tphuang wrote:
Alright, a lot of changes for JFK this week. My theory is that AA maybe leasing them some slots, because they just added another 15 flights here for summer season and AA cut over 30 flights for the same time this week.

I don't know if that's what this is, but that's a lot of growth out of JFK. They have scheduled about 195 flights a day in the peak season now. Looks like cuts to FLL, MCO and PR to allow for these additional adds. Again, not sure if they had these slots all along and not using 50 of them for most of the year or they got some new ones. Pretty crazy if it's the former.

Either way, a lot of reasonable adds that if they can hold on to the slots, they could use them later on other routes as they get more aircraft.
[...]
B6 BOS-DEN JUN 3>1.9[1.9]
[...]
B6 DEN-JFK MAY 2>3[1.6]


Interesting that they are already dropping BOS-DEN back to the previous frequency but increasing JFK-DEN.

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