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ChrisNH38
Posts: 263
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sat Mar 21, 2020 1:51 am

smflyer wrote:
tphuang wrote:
just taking a look at April 10th from LGB,
SMF/SJC/OAK is already gone
SFO/SEA is down to 1x
AUS/RNO/BOS/PDX still at 1x
SLC down to 2x
JFK/LAS still 2x
so looks like LGB just lost 3 more flights for April. My guess is a lot of the cuts are going to be the Latin American stuff since all the borders are closed.


The cut occurs on April 1.


I totally ignore this web site on that day.
https://my.flightradar24.com/ChrisNH
 
Boston757
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sat Mar 21, 2020 12:04 pm

Any word on London flying?
 
tphuang
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sat Mar 21, 2020 2:08 pm

I think there is just too many unknowns to say at this point. Maybe we will get guidance. I think initially they were shooting for Q1 or Q2 of 2021. i don't think that's happening anymore. Earlier would be second half of 2021. The good news is that with worldwide traffic reducing and some airlines in trouble, they may be able to get some LHR slots from this crisis.

First, they just need to survive with some cash in hand and remain independent. Then, we will see what happens.

Maybe they merge with HA. Maybe they merge with NK. In both cases, that would shift their priorities.

If no merger happens, I think they will concentrate on JFK/BOS in the near term while cutting back elsewhere. LGB is toast I would assume. With everyone dialing down, they may have LAX real estates available soon, which would remove the need for LGB. FLL/MCO is at reduced level as long as international travel is down.

Their progress also depends what happen in JFK/BOS. If AA permanently cuts back at JFK, they may get permanent leases on some of these slots and grow up to 200 flights a day. I think at BOS, AA's recent focus city strategy is finished and they will be back to hub flying. The big question is what DL does at BOS. My guess is that they will cut back some of the really money losing routes they've been running, but fly to more than just hubs/focus cities. If that happens, B6 may emerge out of this in better shape than many other airlines and can get back to growing FLL and possibly LAX after that. As long as their primary focus is on BOS, they will fly to London in the near future. I don't think they will postpone it. I do think with a global recession coming through, their overall TATL ambitions will probably be dialed back.
 
CobaltScar
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sat Mar 21, 2020 3:16 pm

Yeah it seems to me there is opportunity for B6 to gather more space for themselves in their focus cities, especially BOS and turn it into a true dominated hub.
 
tphuang
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sat Mar 21, 2020 5:19 pm

My guess is that domestic/Caribbean leisure + Latin America VFR will recover before domestic business and TATL business/leisure traffic. Who knows when TPAC will recover. So LCCs will get through this in a better shape than big 3 provided that they also get some of the gov't loans. Just thinking about where i think their major statiosn will look like after the virus is over, but air travel is presumably still quite a bit weaker than pre-virus.

- NYC - how much AA will retreat here. Will JFK slots go away. Will LGA slots go away? How will DL look at NYC after this? How will UA look at NYC after this? Aside from additional JFK flights, they might be able to gain additional LGA slots. I'm sure they are not too concerned about EWR right now, but that's another place where UA is unlikely to be operating the same number of flights as before the virus hit. So in all 3 airports, I think they have limited time to add more flights next year. Legacies are looking at multi-year recovery. NYC being a super competitive environment and feeling effects of COVID-19 will probably see some legacy pullbacks.

- BOS - I'm sure there will be more gates becoming available at BOS especially in E since TATL traffic is likely to have a pretty large decline coming out of this. Probably they could even get gates in B if AA backs off. The question is what happens with DL's operation. I don't think they will expand as quickly as they had in the past year, but this is a good opportunity to consolidate their position in BOS. Even if DL keeps a hub/focus city in BOS, they are going to be busy strengthening their core hubs and NYC operation. Can't imagine they will grow BOS for a while.

- FLL - If they strengthen NYC/BOS, then FLL is going to not see any growth for a couple of years. Which is fine as far as I'm concerned. I think FLL will grow only if they merge with NK or if WN downsizes FLL.

- MCO - Another station that I see stagnant or reduced. With a weaker economy out of this virus, I would imagine demand drop to central Florida. Which means, no other carriers will expand here. I think some of their capital projects in Orlando will also slow down. Growth at Orlando will be several years away.

- SJU - Another station I think will stay stagnant, but won't be reduced much. I think the VFR traffic is always going to be there for them and won't decline.

- LA Area - I think they will consolidate around LAX. I'm probably optimistic here, but I think they will get all the gates they need at LAX (maybe 6 to 8 gates in total) over the next few years. Legacy plans at LAX will probably be more moderate given that everyone will be running lower margins elsewhere. LGB to me as no value if LAX real estate becomes available.

- don't need any other stations. Their growth will be slow for a few years after this.
 
Brickell305
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sat Mar 21, 2020 5:38 pm

I agree that the LCCs/ULCCs will recover more quickly. The recession that this brings will lead people to be looking for the lowest fares even more so than they were prior. Fare levels will likely be depressed for a while. The legacies will find it difficult to make money at those depressed levels.
 
Byrdluvs747
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sat Mar 21, 2020 9:50 pm

tphuang wrote:

- LA Area - I think they will consolidate around LAX. I'm probably optimistic here, but I think they will get all the gates they need at LAX (maybe 6 to 8 gates in total) over the next few years.


And where will these extra LAX gates come from?
The 747: The hands who designed it were guided by god.
 
tphuang
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sun Mar 22, 2020 12:22 am

Byrdluvs747 wrote:
tphuang wrote:

- LA Area - I think they will consolidate around LAX. I'm probably optimistic here, but I think they will get all the gates they need at LAX (maybe 6 to 8 gates in total) over the next few years.


And where will these extra LAX gates come from?


I've believed for a while now that in the next airlines industry downturn, a lot of the gate constrained will be no longer gate constrained as airlines dial back on their capacity and expansion hopes. In the case of LAX, it's been a very low margin hub for all the big 4 and I don't think all the legacies will need the real estate they had been requesting prior to this virus. So especially in the case of AA, I can see them just relying on AS more on the west coast and not needing all of T 4/5. We will see. I also see UA not needing all the space (T9) that they had been eyeing.
 
Nicknuzzii
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sun Mar 22, 2020 12:45 am

It’s funny how some are saying B6 will grow in BOS but shrink in all other cities. What gives you this idea? Wouldn’t B6 want to grow in their hometown where they are most constrained and there is the most demand?
 
ShinyAndChrome
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sun Mar 22, 2020 4:21 am

Something that I don't think has been discussed in detail yet in this thread is the fate of the remaining TATL LCCs. A lot of these airlines had already gone away even prior to this crisis and if Norwegian ends up either going under or being severely curtailed network-wise, it will give B6 some extra space in their Europe ambitions. Doubly true because unlike in other examples, they've already cultivated a strong brand and following here so less of a need to orient their model around the most price-sensitive, brand-agnostic passengers.
 
wnflyguy
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Mon Mar 23, 2020 5:39 am

So rumors are JetBlue is going to park all the A321 until further notice as it scales back flying.

Flyguy
My Wings are clipped just another Retired Airline person. The Ultimate Armchair out of the loop airline industry geek. Aloha Mr Hand!
 
cpl22586
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Mon Mar 23, 2020 6:28 am

wnflyguy wrote:
So rumors are JetBlue is going to park all the A321 until further notice as it scales back flying.

Flyguy



Where did you happen to hear this rumor?
 
Blueballs
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Mon Mar 23, 2020 3:45 pm

cpl22586 wrote:
wnflyguy wrote:
So rumors are JetBlue is going to park all the A321 until further notice as it scales back flying.

Flyguy



Where did you happen to hear this rumor?

Making up rumors. There’s been no such discussion yet. Though it seems the 190’s will be doing a lot of the lift right now
 
CaptCoolHand
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Mon Mar 23, 2020 7:32 pm

T5 to close tonight at 2030.

Effective Monday, March 23, flights scheduled to depart JFK Terminal 5 after 2030ET will now leave from Terminal 4 due to TSA staffing changes across the airport. This change will continue indefinitely.
 
wnflyguy
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Mon Mar 23, 2020 7:50 pm

Blueballs wrote:
cpl22586 wrote:
wnflyguy wrote:
So rumors are JetBlue is going to park all the A321 until further notice as it scales back flying.

Flyguy



Where did you happen to hear this rumor?

Making up rumors. There’s been no such discussion yet. Though it seems the 190’s will be doing a lot of the lift right now


Customer service team member at LGB. She's was already worried about her total job as it is at LGB before this pandemic. Her station leaders don't sound to optimistic about the future.

The industry as a whole is against the ropes.
Fingers Crossed and prayers across the board 33 yrs in this industry never been in such dire situations.

Praying for everyone now.
Flyguy
My Wings are clipped just another Retired Airline person. The Ultimate Armchair out of the loop airline industry geek. Aloha Mr Hand!
 
cpl22586
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Mon Mar 23, 2020 10:55 pm

Blueballs wrote:
cpl22586 wrote:
wnflyguy wrote:
So rumors are JetBlue is going to park all the A321 until further notice as it scales back flying.

Flyguy



Where did you happen to hear this rumor?

Making up rumors. There’s been no such discussion yet. Though it seems the 190’s will be doing a lot of the lift right now


Looking in the movement control plot the 321s are still doing a lot of flying so was surprised to hear this rumor.
 
flyby519
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Tue Mar 24, 2020 12:59 am

wnflyguy wrote:
So rumors are JetBlue is going to park all the A321 until further notice as it scales back flying.

Flyguy


Makes sense for at least the 200seaters to get parked. We're not seeing loads that warrant that much capacity at the moment.
 
UkiAir
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Tue Mar 24, 2020 6:17 am

E190s will be doing a lot of flying for the next few months.
 
MAH4546
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Tue Mar 24, 2020 6:33 am

flyby519 wrote:
wnflyguy wrote:
So rumors are JetBlue is going to park all the A321 until further notice as it scales back flying.

Flyguy


Makes sense for at least the 200seaters to get parked. We're not seeing loads that warrant that much capacity at the moment.


No way. A321s are cheaper to operate. It makes sense to park older, smaller more expensive planes first.

It's far cheaper to fly 25 people on a brand new A321 than the same 25 people on a 15 year old A320.
a.
 
tphuang
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Tue Mar 24, 2020 11:27 am

Here is the article on additional cancellations from JetBlue in the near future.
https://paxex.aero/2020/03/jetblue-plan ... n-service/

the sub 40% LF sounds horrible until you read that WN is getting 20% LF on its flights and AS is getting 10% LF on its SFO flights. All around, it seems like airlines have adapted the annoying strategy of listing more flights and canceling ones that it cannot fly. The legacies are doing this more than anyone else. Looks like B6 has adopted the strategies of copying legacies here with the rolling cancel emails.

Taking a look at yesterday out of BOS.

B6 canceled 47 out of 154 flights
DL canceled 89 out of 149 flights
AA canceled 44 out of 84 flights

and out of JFK
B6 canceled 53 out of 142 flights
DL canceled 86 out of 225 flights
AA canceled 35 out of 73 flights

out of FLL
B6 canceled 21 out of 86 flights
WN canceled 34 out of 86 flights
NK canceled 1 out of 67
Last edited by tphuang on Tue Mar 24, 2020 11:31 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
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TheLunchbox
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Tue Mar 24, 2020 11:29 am

cpl22586 wrote:
Blueballs wrote:
cpl22586 wrote:


Where did you happen to hear this rumor?

Making up rumors. There’s been no such discussion yet. Though it seems the 190’s will be doing a lot of the lift right now


Looking in the movement control plot the 321s are still doing a lot of flying so was surprised to hear this rumor.


Why are you referencing MC Plot? I wouldn't especially because it's internal info.
 
MIflyer12
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Tue Mar 24, 2020 12:30 pm

MAH4546 wrote:
flyby519 wrote:
wnflyguy wrote:
So rumors are JetBlue is going to park all the A321 until further notice as it scales back flying.

Flyguy


Makes sense for at least the 200seaters to get parked. We're not seeing loads that warrant that much capacity at the moment.


No way. A321s are cheaper to operate. It makes sense to park older, smaller more expensive planes first.

It's far cheaper to fly 25 people on a brand new A321 than the same 25 people on a 15 year old A320.


Really? Trip cost for 25 passengers is lower on a newish 321ceo than on a 15 yr old 320?
 
tphuang
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Fri Mar 27, 2020 12:16 pm

so day by day the numbers look worse and worse for every airline. At this point, legacies are probably going to actually fly closer to 20% of their original planned capacity in April/May. I'd be shocked at this point if JetBlue operate more than 40% of their original schedule in April and May given the NYC exposure. Let's see if they cut more from their schedule or continue the practice of rolling cuts.

They did get some good PR recently when they offered to fly health care professionals for free to New York. Smart thing to do with very little actual costs involved. I guess if they continue to pitch themselves as providing essential services to New York at a crisis, they might gain more political favors with Cuomo.
 
lat41
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Fri Mar 27, 2020 1:34 pm

RL757PVD wrote:
I wonder if this will give them the excuse/out they have been looking for to axe ORH

If that happens the JFK service should be moved South to PVD where it will grab some nice business from Southern New Englanders looking to head West on the JetBlue system via that awesome hub at JFK.
 
11C
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Fri Mar 27, 2020 2:37 pm

Boston757 wrote:
Any word on London flying?


That would be like planning your next vacation while sitting on a deck chair on the Titanic. Not a high priority, at the moment.
 
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airportugal310
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Fri Mar 27, 2020 2:43 pm

11C wrote:
Boston757 wrote:
Any word on London flying?


That would be like planning your next vacation while sitting on a deck chair on the Titanic. Not a high priority, at the moment.


Businesses don't stop planning for the future just because of current operational difficulties...to do so would be somewhat of a dereliction of duty. I am positive they still have people looking at current timelines and requirements, even if they don't jive anymore with the original plan.
“They bought their tickets, they knew what they were getting into. I say, let 'em crash.”
 
Bluewho
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Fri Mar 27, 2020 3:32 pm

airportugal310 wrote:
11C wrote:
Boston757 wrote:
Any word on London flying?


That would be like planning your next vacation while sitting on a deck chair on the Titanic. Not a high priority, at the moment.


Businesses don't stop planning for the future just because of current operational difficulties...to do so would be somewhat of a dereliction of duty. I am positive they still have people looking at current timelines and requirements, even if they don't jive anymore with the original plan.



Absolutely. You would be a very inept ELT(possible) if you were not planning for the future and also some of the opportunities that might come out of this?
 
11C
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Fri Mar 27, 2020 4:06 pm

Bluewho wrote:
airportugal310 wrote:
11C wrote:

That would be like planning your next vacation while sitting on a deck chair on the Titanic. Not a high priority, at the moment.


Businesses don't stop planning for the future just because of current operational difficulties...to do so would be somewhat of a dereliction of duty. I am positive they still have people looking at current timelines and requirements, even if they don't jive anymore with the original plan.



Absolutely. You would be a very inept ELT(possible) if you were not planning for the future and also some of the opportunities that might come out of this?


All may be true, but my point is that they are probably focused on survival at the moment. How do you plan for a future that, at present, is entirely unknown? If you guys know, then maybe you should be on the ELT. This is the “fly the airplane” moment. The other steps will come later when more information is available. But, by all means, fire away.
 
tphuang
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Fri Mar 27, 2020 4:30 pm

it would be interesting to see what happens after the bailout. Do they take just loan or just grant or both? I definitely don't think they would want the gov't to control how they run the airline.

And if they do get additional funding, they won't have to worry about solvency. Should they look into restarting some of the capital project that they have paused? I'm sure the Europe project have been put on hold for now to conserve cash. But if they do get funding, that seems like something they can unpause.
 
MKIAZ
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Fri Mar 27, 2020 4:38 pm

tphuang wrote:
Byrdluvs747 wrote:
tphuang wrote:

- LA Area - I think they will consolidate around LAX. I'm probably optimistic here, but I think they will get all the gates they need at LAX (maybe 6 to 8 gates in total) over the next few years.


And where will these extra LAX gates come from?


I've believed for a while now that in the next airlines industry downturn, a lot of the gate constrained will be no longer gate constrained as airlines dial back on their capacity and expansion hopes. In the case of LAX, it's been a very low margin hub for all the big 4 and I don't think all the legacies will need the real estate they had been requesting prior to this virus. So especially in the case of AA, I can see them just relying on AS more on the west coast and not needing all of T 4/5. We will see. I also see UA not needing all the space (T9) that they had been eyeing.


Wouldn't AA rather run a few LAX-LAS/SFO than have B6 come in and start more JFK/FLL-LAX?
 
twinotter
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Fri Mar 27, 2020 5:57 pm

lat41 wrote:
RL757PVD wrote:
I wonder if this will give them the excuse/out they have been looking for to axe ORH


If that happens the JFK service should be moved South to PVD where it will grab some nice business from Southern New Englanders looking to head West on the JetBlue system via that awesome hub at JFK.


If JetBlue accepts grant money from the stimulus package, they must maintain service through March 1, 2022 to all destinations they served on March 1, 2020.
 
flyby519
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Fri Mar 27, 2020 6:19 pm

twinotter wrote:
lat41 wrote:
RL757PVD wrote:
I wonder if this will give them the excuse/out they have been looking for to axe ORH


If that happens the JFK service should be moved South to PVD where it will grab some nice business from Southern New Englanders looking to head West on the JetBlue system via that awesome hub at JFK.


If JetBlue accepts grant money from the stimulus package, they must maintain service through March 1, 2022 to all destinations they served on March 1, 2020.


I don’t have the wording in front of me but I thought it said this would be at the discretion of the govt.

Edit:

The Secretary of Transportation is authorized to require, to the extent reasonable and practicable, an air carrier provided financial assistance under this subtitle to maintain scheduled air transportation service, as the Secretary of Transportation deems necessary, to ensure services to any point served by that carrier before March 1, 2020.
 
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airportugal310
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Fri Mar 27, 2020 6:35 pm

11C wrote:
Bluewho wrote:
airportugal310 wrote:

Businesses don't stop planning for the future just because of current operational difficulties...to do so would be somewhat of a dereliction of duty. I am positive they still have people looking at current timelines and requirements, even if they don't jive anymore with the original plan.



Absolutely. You would be a very inept ELT(possible) if you were not planning for the future and also some of the opportunities that might come out of this?


All may be true, but my point is that they are probably focused on survival at the moment. How do you plan for a future that, at present, is entirely unknown? If you guys know, then maybe you should be on the ELT. This is the “fly the airplane” moment. The other steps will come later when more information is available. But, by all means, fire away.


Not firing away. There can be two trains of thought on the matter...both with their points. But what I can say is that at the airline I work for...planning is still moving forward with future aircraft deliveries as if they are still coming on time. Are they really? Who knows, but to plan as if they are still showing up means you don't end up far behind the curve later...
“They bought their tickets, they knew what they were getting into. I say, let 'em crash.”
 
ericm2031
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Fri Mar 27, 2020 7:27 pm

tphuang wrote:
it would be interesting to see what happens after the bailout. Do they take just loan or just grant or both? I definitely don't think they would want the gov't to control how they run the airline.

And if they do get additional funding, they won't have to worry about solvency. Should they look into restarting some of the capital project that they have paused? I'm sure the Europe project have been put on hold for now to conserve cash. But if they do get funding, that seems like something they can unpause.


I think every airline will do as much as they can to avoid loans with a lot of strings attached. They just want it available as a last resort. Most of the airlines still have significant liquidity and much more they can obtain on their own, especially if you own a lot of your fleet.
 
BlueBaller
Posts: 73
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Fri Mar 27, 2020 7:59 pm

airportugal310 wrote:
11C wrote:
Bluewho wrote:


Absolutely. You would be a very inept ELT(possible) if you were not planning for the future and also some of the opportunities that might come out of this?


All may be true, but my point is that they are probably focused on survival at the moment. How do you plan for a future that, at present, is entirely unknown? If you guys know, then maybe you should be on the ELT. This is the “fly the airplane” moment. The other steps will come later when more information is available. But, by all means, fire away.


Not firing away. There can be two trains of thought on the matter...both with their points. But what I can say is that at the airline I work for...planning is still moving forward with future aircraft deliveries as if they are still coming on time. Are they really? Who knows, but to plan as if they are still showing up means you don't end up far behind the curve later...


I am sure London is still in the works. In fact, if this squad plays their cards right, the service will debut (albeit later than the originally broadcast Q1 2021) with far less competition from both Legacy and Low Cost European carriers, and benefitting from hugely discounted costs for slots. It follows similar logic as the Breeze start up philosophy. Get in on the bottom floor right as the dust finally settled, rub your eyes, clear your throat, take stock of the road ahead and get to work.
 
tphuang
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Fri Mar 27, 2020 8:20 pm

Maybe even LHR slots become available from this at a reasonable cost, who knows. Once in a decade opportunity for JetBlue here to grab London slots on the cheap.
 
11C
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Fri Mar 27, 2020 10:35 pm

airportugal310 wrote:
11C wrote:
Bluewho wrote:


Absolutely. You would be a very inept ELT(possible) if you were not planning for the future and also some of the opportunities that might come out of this?


All may be true, but my point is that they are probably focused on survival at the moment. How do you plan for a future that, at present, is entirely unknown? If you guys know, then maybe you should be on the ELT. This is the “fly the airplane” moment. The other steps will come later when more information is available. But, by all means, fire away.


Not firing away. There can be two trains of thought on the matter...both with their points. But what I can say is that at the airline I work for...planning is still moving forward with future aircraft deliveries as if they are still coming on time. Are they really? Who knows, but to plan as if they are still showing up means you don't end up far behind the curve later...


Agreed, I hope they are looking down the road. This will end up being an opportunity, as much as a crisis to manage through. Whoever does it best will come out far ahead. Managing it poorly could prove disastrous.
 
MAH4546
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Fri Mar 27, 2020 10:40 pm

tphuang wrote:
Maybe even LHR slots become available from this at a reasonable cost, who knows. Once in a decade opportunity for JetBlue here to grab London slots on the cheap.


No. That will not happen.
a.
 
tphuang
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sat Mar 28, 2020 12:06 am

MAH4546 wrote:
tphuang wrote:
Maybe even LHR slots become available from this at a reasonable cost, who knows. Once in a decade opportunity for JetBlue here to grab London slots on the cheap.


No. That will not happen.

It will happen if British govt allows vs to go under.
 
Bluewho
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sat Mar 28, 2020 12:20 am

MAH4546 wrote:
tphuang wrote:
Maybe even LHR slots become available from this at a reasonable cost, who knows. Once in a decade opportunity for JetBlue here to grab London slots on the cheap.


No. That will not happen.


As if anyone knows what will happen these days
 
wv399
Posts: 88
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sat Mar 28, 2020 1:24 am

tphuang wrote:
Maybe even LHR slots become available from this at a reasonable cost, who knows. Once in a decade opportunity for JetBlue here to grab London slots on the cheap.


It's certainly possible. Air India has just gotten 6.

https://simpleflying.com/garuda-air-ind ... lot-lease/
 
B6BOSfan
Posts: 62
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sat Mar 28, 2020 2:12 am

Crazy to see how empty JetBlue's terminal in Boston is at 5pm on a Friday.

Image
 
SoCalFlyer
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sat Mar 28, 2020 3:12 pm

What would a possible merger between Jetblue and Hawaiian look like, after this? It seems like that could be a good option. Just asking for thoughts on the two of them becoming one.
 
tphuang
Posts: 5297
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sat Mar 28, 2020 3:19 pm

Now that DL has loaded in their BOS/JFK cuts for April (and same with UA), i wonder if JetBlue will load in more cuts, since that might have been one of the few reasons stopping them from cutting more of their schedule on some of these routes. That has to be better than some of this rolling cuts they've been doing.

SoCalFlyer wrote:
What would a possible merger between Jetblue and Hawaiian look like, after this? It seems like that could be a good option. Just asking for thoughts on the two of them becoming one.

Well, maybe B6 can use some of HA's expertise on ETOPS or even use the widebodies for service to London from BOS/NYC or FLL to Brazil instead of HI to Asia, which are horribly unprofitable markets.

Maybe we will see mint on A321NEO going from west coast to HI instead of HA's current A321NEO configs. And intra-island can go with A220s.

it would help them against WN's HI move and also give B6 more of a presence in west coast.
 
SoCalFlyer
Posts: 73
Joined: Fri Oct 10, 2014 12:16 am

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sat Mar 28, 2020 7:59 pm

tphuang wrote:
Now that DL has loaded in their BOS/JFK cuts for April (and same with UA), i wonder if JetBlue will load in more cuts, since that might have been one of the few reasons stopping them from cutting more of their schedule on some of these routes. That has to be better than some of this rolling cuts they've been doing.

SoCalFlyer wrote:
What would a possible merger between Jetblue and Hawaiian look like, after this? It seems like that could be a good option. Just asking for thoughts on the two of them becoming one.

Well, maybe B6 can use some of HA's expertise on ETOPS or even use the widebodies for service to London from BOS/NYC or FLL to Brazil instead of HI to Asia, which are horribly unprofitable markets.


Maybe we will see mint on A321NEO going from west coast to HI instead of HA's current A321NEO configs. And intra-island can go with A220s.

it would help them against WN's HI move and also give B6 more of a presence in west coast.


Thanks for the input. I think this could make a merger between jetblue and Hawaiian become a reality, as this has the potential to open up a lot of opportunities for jetblue. Possibly even gaining slots in some of the EU cities it wants.
 
flyby519
Posts: 1574
Joined: Tue Jul 24, 2007 3:31 am

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sun Mar 29, 2020 12:04 am

tphuang wrote:
Now that DL has loaded in their BOS/JFK cuts for April (and same with UA), i wonder if JetBlue will load in more cuts, since that might have been one of the few reasons stopping them from cutting more of their schedule on some of these routes. That has to be better than some of this rolling cuts they've been doing.

SoCalFlyer wrote:
What would a possible merger between Jetblue and Hawaiian look like, after this? It seems like that could be a good option. Just asking for thoughts on the two of them becoming one.

Well, maybe B6 can use some of HA's expertise on ETOPS or even use the widebodies for service to London from BOS/NYC or FLL to Brazil instead of HI to Asia, which are horribly unprofitable markets.

Maybe we will see mint on A321NEO going from west coast to HI instead of HA's current A321NEO configs. And intra-island can go with A220s.

it would help them against WN's HI move and also give B6 more of a presence in west coast.


The ETOPS certification is aircraft type and operating certificate specific, so it wouldn't be transferrable, but you are correct that HA airframes could fly ETOPS routes typically thought of as a JetBlue route.

Mildly-crazy idea but HA/JB merger and then transfer the A321LR/XLRs to the Hawaiian operating certificate and fly them BOS/JFK-Europe. I would assume A321neo ETOPS certification currently held by Hawaiian would also apply to an A321LR/XLR airframe added to their certificate since the changes are so minimal.

I do think there would need to be a way to continue operating the two brands since they both have a strong following in their respective regions.
 
hiflyeras
Posts: 2262
Joined: Thu Jul 14, 2011 6:48 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sun Mar 29, 2020 12:29 am

I just have to laugh...all this speculation about mergers and acquisitions when the entire industry is on the brink of collapse. It’s going to take maybe years for every airline to return to not only their previous size but likely to profitability. Let’s talk a year from now after we see who survives.
 
tphuang
Posts: 5297
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sun Mar 29, 2020 1:33 am

hiflyeras wrote:
I just have to laugh...all this speculation about mergers and acquisitions when the entire industry is on the brink of collapse. It’s going to take maybe years for every airline to return to not only their previous size but likely to profitability. Let’s talk a year from now after we see who survives.


well, m&a typically happens during downturns. Right now, you can probably get HA for well under $1 billion and SAVE for maybe $1.25 billion.

B6 is definitely going to survive this. They have $3 billion in cash and loans before the gov't bailout. That should allow them to hand around until next year at current burn rate. In fact, I doubt any of the major airlines won't survive this. Let's hope B6 won't have to furlough come October.


flyby519 wrote:
[

The ETOPS certification is aircraft type and operating certificate specific, so it wouldn't be transferrable, but you are correct that HA airframes could fly ETOPS routes typically thought of as a JetBlue route.

Mildly-crazy idea but HA/JB merger and then transfer the A321LR/XLRs to the Hawaiian operating certificate and fly them BOS/JFK-Europe. I would assume A321neo ETOPS certification currently held by Hawaiian would also apply to an A321LR/XLR airframe added to their certificate since the changes are so minimal.

I do think there would need to be a way to continue operating the two brands since they both have a strong following in their respective regions.


Agreed, would piss off a lot of locals to operate under the JetBlue brand in Hawaii. Thinking about the pluses here, NK still seems like the better merger partner for B6 if they don't have to bid a huge premium over where SAVE is trading at right now. HA still doesn't seem to bring enough to the table.

Also, I just counted a Monday in April and DL is down to around 40 flights out of BOS. I'm guessing that will be the case for at least until the early summer month. B6 might get lucky here if DL decides to leave BOS downsized (even if not at this level) for the foreseeable future. We will see.

Still waiting to see what AA might cut.
 
Nicknuzzii
Posts: 1215
Joined: Sat Sep 15, 2018 5:57 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sun Mar 29, 2020 1:53 am

Will B6 even pursue transatlantic ops once this saga is over?
 
SoCalFlyer
Posts: 73
Joined: Fri Oct 10, 2014 12:16 am

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sun Mar 29, 2020 2:04 am

hiflyeras wrote:
I just have to laugh...all this speculation about mergers and acquisitions when the entire industry is on the brink of collapse. It’s going to take maybe years for every airline to return to not only their previous size but likely to profitability. Let’s talk a year from now after we see who survives.


Well, didn’t the last big round of mergers happened when the industry was in a downtown?

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