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wv399
Posts: 88
Joined: Tue Apr 24, 2007 12:32 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sun Mar 29, 2020 2:09 am

hiflyeras wrote:
I just have to laugh...all this speculation about mergers and acquisitions when the entire industry is on the brink of collapse. It’s going to take maybe years for every airline to return to not only their previous size but likely to profitability. Let’s talk a year from now after we see who survives.


USAirways bought American after it filed bankruptcy.
 
DELTA777
Posts: 674
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2000 6:34 am

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sun Mar 29, 2020 2:17 am

I think everyone should take a few things into consideration:
1. JetBlue’s management team is extremely conservative and their focus over the past two years has been conserving capital and reducing costs.
2. Why spend billions on a merger with HA when they could keep the current codeshare agreement in place and possibly expand to Hawaii once ETOPS is complete?
3. Airlines are fighting for their existence and burning cash through unnecessary acquisitions isn’t top of mind (especially at B6).

When it comes to London, their original timeframe was very aggressive and probably unrealistic. I wouldn’t be surprised if London/Europe was postponed indefinitely.
 
PVD523
Posts: 36
Joined: Tue Jan 14, 2020 8:01 am

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sun Mar 29, 2020 4:39 am

Personally, and to play a little devil's advocate, I'm not a fan of more mergers and acquisitions, regardless of how healthy the industry is. Four airlines and their regional partners already control almost 80% of the market share in the US. The fewer airlines there are making up the remaining 20%, the fewer choices consumers have, to the point where I start to wonder about how we're coming full circle on the whole point of Deregulation.

As an average consumer - one who doesn't belong to a loyalty program and doesn't fly out of a fortress hub - I value choice and would rather not see a declining variety of tails in the sky, whether that's B6+HA or whomever.
 
rbavfan
Posts: 3627
Joined: Fri Apr 17, 2015 5:53 am

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sun Mar 29, 2020 5:49 am

tphuang wrote:
Now that DL has loaded in their BOS/JFK cuts for April (and same with UA), i wonder if JetBlue will load in more cuts, since that might have been one of the few reasons stopping them from cutting more of their schedule on some of these routes. That has to be better than some of this rolling cuts they've been doing.

SoCalFlyer wrote:
What would a possible merger between Jetblue and Hawaiian look like, after this? It seems like that could be a good option. Just asking for thoughts on the two of them becoming one.

Well, maybe B6 can use some of HA's expertise on ETOPS or even use the widebodies for service to London from BOS/NYC or FLL to Brazil instead of HI to Asia, which are horribly unprofitable markets.

Maybe we will see mint on A321NEO going from west coast to HI instead of HA's current A321NEO configs. And intra-island can go with A220s.

it would help them against WN's HI move and also give B6 more of a presence in west coast.


The Hawaii - Asia routes seem to be doing just fine for them outside of the outbreak. Also how do you know they are horribly unprofitable? Do you have a crystal ball?
Last edited by rbavfan on Sun Mar 29, 2020 5:59 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
rbavfan
Posts: 3627
Joined: Fri Apr 17, 2015 5:53 am

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sun Mar 29, 2020 5:51 am

flyby519 wrote:
tphuang wrote:
Now that DL has loaded in their BOS/JFK cuts for April (and same with UA), i wonder if JetBlue will load in more cuts, since that might have been one of the few reasons stopping them from cutting more of their schedule on some of these routes. That has to be better than some of this rolling cuts they've been doing.

SoCalFlyer wrote:
What would a possible merger between Jetblue and Hawaiian look like, after this? It seems like that could be a good option. Just asking for thoughts on the two of them becoming one.

Well, maybe B6 can use some of HA's expertise on ETOPS or even use the widebodies for service to London from BOS/NYC or FLL to Brazil instead of HI to Asia, which are horribly unprofitable markets.

Maybe we will see mint on A321NEO going from west coast to HI instead of HA's current A321NEO configs. And intra-island can go with A220s.

it would help them against WN's HI move and also give B6 more of a presence in west coast.


The ETOPS certification is aircraft type and operating certificate specific, so it wouldn't be transferrable, but you are correct that HA airframes could fly ETOPS routes typically thought of as a JetBlue route.

Mildly-crazy idea but HA/JB merger and then transfer the A321LR/XLRs to the Hawaiian operating certificate and fly them BOS/JFK-Europe. I would assume A321neo ETOPS certification currently held by Hawaiian would also apply to an A321LR/XLR airframe added to their certificate since the changes are so minimal.

I do think there would need to be a way to continue operating the two brands since they both have a strong following in their respective regions.


The LR & XLR will require different certs as they have great amount of updates.
 
tphuang
Posts: 5331
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sun Mar 29, 2020 9:51 am

DELTA777 wrote:
I think everyone should take a few things into consideration:
1. JetBlue’s management team is extremely conservative and their focus over the past two years has been conserving capital and reducing costs.
2. Why spend billions on a merger with HA when they could keep the current codeshare agreement in place and possibly expand to Hawaii once ETOPS is complete?
3. Airlines are fighting for their existence and burning cash through unnecessary acquisitions isn’t top of mind (especially at B6).

When it comes to London, their original timeframe was very aggressive and probably unrealistic. I wouldn’t be surprised if London/Europe was postponed indefinitely.


With the cut capacity and more cash in hand, JetBlue will have enough cash in hand to be around for a long time. A few months from now, when demand is not this low, airlines that are struggling like ha will be looking for help. With all the added pressure from southwest, ha is likely to be losing money for a long time. International travel is basically minimal for the foreseeable future. Even a bailed out ha will probably struggle to stay afloat Long term. They will be a Takeover target.

And no, the original timeline for London was anything but aggressive. It will be pushed back but delaying indefinitely would be crazy. There will be a lot less competition after this virus. Now more Norwegian around. A lot of airlines will probably reduce capacity to North America. Corporations will be cutting back on budget and looking for more frugal options across the pond.
 
flyby519
Posts: 1575
Joined: Tue Jul 24, 2007 3:31 am

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sun Mar 29, 2020 1:12 pm

rbavfan wrote:
flyby519 wrote:
tphuang wrote:
Now that DL has loaded in their BOS/JFK cuts for April (and same with UA), i wonder if JetBlue will load in more cuts, since that might have been one of the few reasons stopping them from cutting more of their schedule on some of these routes. That has to be better than some of this rolling cuts they've been doing.


Well, maybe B6 can use some of HA's expertise on ETOPS or even use the widebodies for service to London from BOS/NYC or FLL to Brazil instead of HI to Asia, which are horribly unprofitable markets.

Maybe we will see mint on A321NEO going from west coast to HI instead of HA's current A321NEO configs. And intra-island can go with A220s.

it would help them against WN's HI move and also give B6 more of a presence in west coast.


The ETOPS certification is aircraft type and operating certificate specific, so it wouldn't be transferrable, but you are correct that HA airframes could fly ETOPS routes typically thought of as a JetBlue route.

Mildly-crazy idea but HA/JB merger and then transfer the A321LR/XLRs to the Hawaiian operating certificate and fly them BOS/JFK-Europe. I would assume A321neo ETOPS certification currently held by Hawaiian would also apply to an A321LR/XLR airframe added to their certificate since the changes are so minimal.

I do think there would need to be a way to continue operating the two brands since they both have a strong following in their respective regions.


The LR & XLR will require different certs as they have great amount of updates.


Ahh ok thanks for this. I wasn’t sure if variants of the same type would require additional ETOPS certification for an operator. And how difficult that addition to a certificate would be vs a new operator completing the process.
 
Boston757
Posts: 103
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sun Mar 29, 2020 2:59 pm

wv399 wrote:
hiflyeras wrote:
I just have to laugh...all this speculation about mergers and acquisitions when the entire industry is on the brink of collapse. It’s going to take maybe years for every airline to return to not only their previous size but likely to profitability. Let’s talk a year from now after we see who survives.


USAirways bought American after it filed bankruptcy.
may want to clarify that with Doug. That’s not what he says. He can be reached at aa.com
 
StinkyPinky
Posts: 62
Joined: Fri Jan 11, 2019 10:03 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Mon Mar 30, 2020 1:22 am

Major schedule reductions for April not reflected in the OAG thread. JetBlue website showing LGB is left with:

SEA - 5/wk
PDX - 2/wk
RNO - 3/wk
SLC - 1 daily
JFK - 1 daily

SFO, SLC, RNO, AUS, BOS are not available in the search engine. Most of these cuts extend into May.

LAX flights see major reductions and cuts too.
 
tphuang
Posts: 5331
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Mon Mar 30, 2020 1:45 am

Looking at OAG thread today. The big takeaways for me were
1) AA continue to chop JFK. Down to like 19 flights for April. Coming out of this, I'd expect them to be even lower than the 70s they were at prior to this. More in the 50 range.
2) DL took the buzzsaw to their BOS operation. Down to around 40 flights. Some notable exits like SFO/DCA/ORD/EWR/AUS for April. Most other non core-hub/NYC routes are down to 1x daily.
3) B6 cuts to May. Still seems too little for what they will actually be flying. Expecting these rolling cuts to continue. Now that they've seen DL/AA/UA make their cuts, they should possibly adjust their cuts (as in more scheduled cuts vs last minute ones).

So just thinking about what this means going forward. What would be a pretty bad scenario for them?
- DL cuts back at BOS from it's current level but retreats more to 120-130 flights a day in the short term and slowly grow back to 150 flights a day 2 or 3 years down the road. So basically, capacity cuts that are a little less than their system average. That would make BOS hard to be very profitable for them.
- AA continues operating a 70 flights per day schedule and grow back to 80 to 90 in 2 years. DL makes some cuts to JFK but adds back all the flight in 2 or 3 years. B6 does not make any in-road and DL dominates even more at JFK.
- WN does not cut back at all at FLL FLL becomes a huge bloodbath for B6 that will be in backburners for a while. B6 falls behind NK and can't recover.
- MCO growth delayed permanently.
- No new opportunity becomes available in west coast.
- JFK VFR market does not recover quickly because people don't have money to go visit their homeland.
- entry into London at a bad time and Europe experiment is a disaster.

What would be a pretty good scenario for them.
- DL cuts back at BOS to 80 something flights. Exit out of quite a few unprofitable markets. BOS slowly becomes really profitable for B6 as other airlines cuts lead them to 50% domestic market share by end of 2021. They get more gates at BOS as TATL markets retreat and airlines in B like AA/WN retreat to their major stations and adjust to the lower demand level. All of which allows them to use A220s to grow to maybe 50% market share overall cementing BOS as one of the most profitable hubs for any airline in America.
- AA cuts jFK down to 50 flights a day and stays that way. DL cuts JFK back by 20 to 25% even for Q4. DL grows back to current level of traffic in 2 or 3 years, but does not take advantage of slots that become available as airlines cut back at JFK. B6 picks up a lot of new slots for usage in Europe and to grow in their traditional markets. They eventually dominate the JFK transcon markets (especially to LA Basin) and all the major Latam VFR markets. After they start flying to London, they have almost as many flights in peak season out of JFK as DL. They gain a good share of the corporate market that AA left behind.
- B6 picks up slots at LGA as demand weakens for a few years after this. Using the new slots to complete their BOS shuttle and add new markets out of LGA.
- WN backs off growth at both MCO/FLL to concentrate in just BWI/BNA in the east side of the country. More space becomes available at FLL.
- NK does not make major growth at FLL or get acquired in a merger. B6 can focus on building at FLL in 2 years time when they solidify their position at BOS/NYC.
- MCO does not have any new development and remain available for growth in a few years.
- More gates become available at LAX as airlines all cut back a little bit (especially AA/AS) from the LAX bloodbath. B6 gets more gates than expected and can build up LAX.
- More gates become available at SFO as both UA/AS cuts back a little bit. They get 2 more gates to support entering LAX-SFO market plus more transcon flights from east coast.

Again, I think there will be opportunities opening up. B6 most likely will have lower capacity even in Q4 than it did last year. And LF will remain weak for the rest of this year. US3 will probably be 30% (or even more?) smaller than they were last year due to TATL/TPAC cuts and feeds leading to them. WN will probably be down a little bit compared to last year. NK/F9 will be sitting on a lot of new aircraft with no place to put them. B6 with its delivery delays and the ability to retired some older aircraft might not be in a bad position to exploit this.
 
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jfklganyc
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Mon Mar 30, 2020 1:46 am

Dont worry WN will backfill LGB...hahaha!
 
tphuang
Posts: 5331
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Mon Mar 30, 2020 1:46 am

StinkyPinky wrote:
Major schedule reductions for April not reflected in the OAG thread. JetBlue website showing LGB is left with:

SEA - 5/wk
PDX - 2/wk
RNO - 3/wk
SLC - 1 daily
JFK - 1 daily

SFO, SLC, RNO, AUS, BOS are not available in the search engine. Most of these cuts extend into May.

LAX flights see major reductions and cuts too.

Thanks and not a surprise at all. With the slot requirements gone, no reason to operate more than a barebone schedule.
 
StinkyPinky
Posts: 62
Joined: Fri Jan 11, 2019 10:03 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Mon Mar 30, 2020 2:12 am

StinkyPinky wrote:
SFO, SLC, LAS*, AUS, BOS are not available in the search engine. Most of these cuts extend into May.


Sorry, meant to include LAS, not RNO in the additional cuts.
 
wv399
Posts: 88
Joined: Tue Apr 24, 2007 12:32 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Mon Mar 30, 2020 3:28 pm

Boston757 wrote:
wv399 wrote:
hiflyeras wrote:
I just have to laugh...all this speculation about mergers and acquisitions when the entire industry is on the brink of collapse. It’s going to take maybe years for every airline to return to not only their previous size but likely to profitability. Let’s talk a year from now after we see who survives.


USAirways bought American after it filed bankruptcy.
may want to clarify that with Doug. That’s not what he says. He can be reached at aa.com


Interesting. What does he say that I missed?

This is what he said after AMR announced the bankruptcy filing: Jan. 25, 2012: US Airways CEO Doug Parker confirms that the airline is exploring "our options as they relate to AMR's bankruptcy."



https://www.dallasnews.com/business/air ... ettlement/


Meanwhile, Spirit has adopted a defensive poison pill after the decline of its share price.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/spiri ... 2020-03-30
 
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jfklganyc
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Mon Mar 30, 2020 7:59 pm

Internal rumor:

80 percent reduction in May

Normalcy a year away

Take that for what it is worth
 
Boston757
Posts: 103
Joined: Mon Aug 31, 2015 5:39 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Mon Mar 30, 2020 8:20 pm

wv399 wrote:
Boston757 wrote:
wv399 wrote:

USAirways bought American after it filed bankruptcy.
may want to clarify that with Doug. That’s not what he says. He can be reached at aa.com


Interesting. What does he say that I missed?

This is what he said after AMR announced the bankruptcy filing: Jan. 25, 2012: US Airways CEO Doug Parker confirms that the airline is exploring "our options as they relate to AMR's bankruptcy."

Not long ago there were some upset LUS employees at a AA meeting and that subject came up . They were upset having to do things the LAA way. So to make a long story short he stoped them short in their rant and said nobody bought anybody ect ect.

https://www.dallasnews.com/business/air ... ettlement/


Meanwhile, Spirit has adopted a defensive poison pill after the decline of its share price.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/spiri ... 2020-03-30
 
wv399
Posts: 88
Joined: Tue Apr 24, 2007 12:32 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Mon Mar 30, 2020 8:29 pm

Boston757 wrote:
wv399 wrote:
Boston757 wrote:
may want to clarify that with Doug. That’s not what he says. He can be reached at aa.com


Interesting. What does he say that I missed?

This is what he said after AMR announced the bankruptcy filing: Jan. 25, 2012: US Airways CEO Doug Parker confirms that the airline is exploring "our options as they relate to AMR's bankruptcy."

Not long ago there were some upset LUS employees at a AA meeting and that subject came up . They were upset having to do things the LAA way. So to make a long story short he stoped them short in their rant and said nobody bought anybody ect ect.

https://www.dallasnews.com/business/air ... ettlement/

Got it! Thanks
Meanwhile, Spirit has adopted a defensive poison pill after the decline of its share price.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/spiri ... 2020-03-30
 
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TheLunchbox
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Mon Mar 30, 2020 9:36 pm

jfklganyc wrote:
Internal rumor:

80 percent reduction in May

Normalcy a year away

Take that for what it is worth


Keep internal rumors, internal.
 
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jfklganyc
Posts: 6005
Joined: Mon Jan 05, 2004 2:31 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Mon Mar 30, 2020 9:46 pm

TheLunchbox wrote:
jfklganyc wrote:
Internal rumor:

80 percent reduction in May

Normalcy a year away

Take that for what it is worth


Keep internal rumors, internal.


Why?

Im not privileged. This wasnt a secret shared with me. I have no documentation

It is a rumor. It was spread to me...I am sharing

Take it for what it is worth
 
Nicknuzzii
Posts: 1237
Joined: Sat Sep 15, 2018 5:57 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Mon Mar 30, 2020 10:20 pm

jfklganyc wrote:
TheLunchbox wrote:
jfklganyc wrote:
Internal rumor:

80 percent reduction in May

Normalcy a year away

Take that for what it is worth


Keep internal rumors, internal.


Why?

Im not privileged. This wasnt a secret shared with me. I have no documentation

It is a rumor. It was spread to me...I am sharing

Take it for what it is worth


I actually appreciate you sharing this info.
 
flyby519
Posts: 1575
Joined: Tue Jul 24, 2007 3:31 am

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Tue Mar 31, 2020 12:42 am

Speaking of rumors, heard there is a plan floating around of parking the entire 190 fleet. Going back to single fleet at least temporarily for a few years while they defer 220s.
 
JoseSalazar
Posts: 255
Joined: Mon Oct 14, 2019 3:18 am

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Tue Mar 31, 2020 2:33 am

flyby519 wrote:
Speaking of rumors, heard there is a plan floating around of parking the entire 190 fleet. Going back to single fleet at least temporarily for a few years while they defer 220s.

I heard this as well. I don’t know what they’d do with the 30 leased ones though...return early and pay a fee or something? Also, I would think trip cost with 10-20% LFs would be significantly lower on an E190 than 320/321. They could save cycles and hours on older 320s by flying 190s heavy and parking owned 320s. But I suppose if they just run a big displacement bid and furlough, going to a single fleet would make things a lot easier with all that. It would rip the bandaid off of the whole fleet transition and large training float inefficiency that exists with 2 or 3 fleets, and there will be a lot of training events created with any furlough/displacement bid anyway. It’ll be interesting to see how the next 6-9 months develop, and probably not in a good way.
 
tphuang
Posts: 5331
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Tue Mar 31, 2020 11:49 am

That would seem like such a terrible idea. In a low demand period, they are going to run A320s back and forth between BOS and DCA 15 times a day? I would definitely defer A321s before I defer A220s. How are they going to fill more A321s when people are afraid of flying for the next while.

I guess we will hear more on this in the Q1 earnings call. That will be enlightening.
 
WN732
Posts: 815
Joined: Sat Feb 26, 2011 12:49 am

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Tue Mar 31, 2020 5:11 pm

B6 has been saying that the maintenance on the 190 is what makes it so difficult to keep on a cost basis. Are they that terrible that they can't be kept in favor of the larger jets that they really can't fill right now?
 
flyby519
Posts: 1575
Joined: Tue Jul 24, 2007 3:31 am

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Tue Mar 31, 2020 6:58 pm

tphuang wrote:
That would seem like such a terrible idea. In a low demand period, they are going to run A320s back and forth between BOS and DCA 15 times a day? I would definitely defer A321s before I defer A220s. How are they going to fill more A321s when people are afraid of flying for the next while.

I guess we will hear more on this in the Q1 earnings call. That will be enlightening.


At what point do you really think B6 can fly 15x BOSDCA on 190s either? I'm also banking on the FAA slot usage waiver to be extended beyond May. Likely through October at least.
 
MIflyer12
Posts: 8270
Joined: Mon Feb 18, 2013 11:58 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Wed Apr 01, 2020 12:26 am

jfklganyc wrote:
TheLunchbox wrote:
jfklganyc wrote:
Internal rumor:

80 percent reduction in May

Normalcy a year away

Take that for what it is worth


Keep internal rumors, internal.


Why?

Im not privileged. This wasnt a secret shared with me. I have no documentation

It is a rumor. It was spread to me...I am sharing

Take it for what it is worth


Confirmed by CNBC, Reuters, and others today.

www.cnbc.com/2020/03/31/jetblue-slashes ... reads.html
 
Wacko55
Posts: 89
Joined: Tue Oct 22, 2019 4:59 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Wed Apr 01, 2020 1:33 am

MIflyer12 wrote:
jfklganyc wrote:
TheLunchbox wrote:

Keep internal rumors, internal.


Why?

Im not privileged. This wasnt a secret shared with me. I have no documentation

It is a rumor. It was spread to me...I am sharing

Take it for what it is worth


Confirmed by CNBC, Reuters, and others today.

http://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/31/jetblue- ... reads.html


It's gonna be a hard day for Blue. With NYC being their main hub coupled with such a huge presence on the east coast I just hope they can weather the storm.
 
tphuang
Posts: 5331
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Wed Apr 01, 2020 1:42 am

Wacko55 wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:
jfklganyc wrote:

Why?

Im not privileged. This wasnt a secret shared with me. I have no documentation

It is a rumor. It was spread to me...I am sharing

Take it for what it is worth


Confirmed by CNBC, Reuters, and others today.

http://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/31/jetblue- ... reads.html


It's gonna be a hard day for Blue. With NYC being their main hub coupled with such a huge presence on the east coast I just hope they can weather the storm.


Is it really that hard of a day compared to other days. At this point, the airlines probably would rather just all shut it down and conserve cash if not for the fact that they have to keep flying for essential services plus not losing ground to competitors. They all lose money on every flight.
 
Wacko55
Posts: 89
Joined: Tue Oct 22, 2019 4:59 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Wed Apr 01, 2020 1:57 am

tphuang wrote:
Wacko55 wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:

Confirmed by CNBC, Reuters, and others today.

http://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/31/jetblue- ... reads.html


It's gonna be a hard day for Blue. With NYC being their main hub coupled with such a huge presence on the east coast I just hope they can weather the storm.


Is it really that hard of a day compared to other days. At this point, the airlines probably would rather just all shut it down and conserve cash if not for the fact that they have to keep flying for essential services plus not losing ground to competitors. They all lose money on every flight.


Yes it is. Airlines like all companies big and small across the country will have to make very difficult decisions in the worst of these times. No company is immune to this damn virus. Hopefully Blue can fight through to the other side.
 
twinotter
Posts: 253
Joined: Sun Oct 17, 2004 3:13 am

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Wed Apr 01, 2020 3:00 am

WN732 wrote:
B6 has been saying that the maintenance on the 190 is what makes it so difficult to keep on a cost basis. Are they that terrible that they can't be kept in favor of the larger jets that they really can't fill right now?


Where has Jetblue been saying this?
 
B6BOSfan
Posts: 62
Joined: Fri Apr 19, 2019 5:11 am

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Wed Apr 01, 2020 5:03 am

Just got an alert my JetBlue BOS-DEN flight for May was cancelled.

For the heck of it, I started poking around, and virtually every flight from BOS-DEN is gone in April. So, I looked around a bit more...

BOS-MCO -- NO direct service most days in late April -- up to 3x early April (varies)
BOS-ATL -- NO direct service from Boston after April 8th until April 27 (1x)
BOS-DCA -- 1x to 3x a day (varies) in April
BOS-EWR, BOS-LGA and BOS-JFK -- 1x to 3x a day (varies) in April
BOS-LAX -- 1x to 2x a day (varies) in April
BOS-SAN -- 1x to 2x a day (varies) in April
BOS-SFO -- NO service to 1x a day (varies) in April
BOS-LAS -- NO service to 1x a day (varies) in April
BOS-SEA -- NO service to 1x a day (varies) in April
BOS-BUF -- NO service to 1x a day (varies) in April
BOS-ORD -- 1x to 2x a day (varies) in April
BOS-PIT -- 2x a day in April
BOS-MSP -- 1x a day in April
BOS-SLC -- NO direct service from BOS
BOS-DEN -- Random days direct service from BOS (1x)

ORH-JFK -- No changes (being cancelled day of)
ORH-MCO -- No changes (being cancelled day of)
ORH-FLL -- No changes (being cancelled day of)
 
tphuang
Posts: 5331
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Wed Apr 01, 2020 11:35 am

Wacko55 wrote:
tphuang wrote:
Wacko55 wrote:

It's gonna be a hard day for Blue. With NYC being their main hub coupled with such a huge presence on the east coast I just hope they can weather the storm.


Is it really that hard of a day compared to other days. At this point, the airlines probably would rather just all shut it down and conserve cash if not for the fact that they have to keep flying for essential services plus not losing ground to competitors. They all lose money on every flight.


Yes it is. Airlines like all companies big and small across the country will have to make very difficult decisions in the worst of these times. No company is immune to this damn virus. Hopefully Blue can fight through to the other side.


Well that's the thing. If everyone cuts around where they are, then it's not a problem for them to cut also. At this point, it seems like the best way to get through is to fly as minimally as possible. I'm assuming they will take the bailout grant. Hopefully that will last them for a while. I hope they don't have to furlough, but that's hard to predict right now.

If the demand is going to take over a year to come back to even 80% of what it was in 2019, they are going to need to conserve as much cash as possible. Whoever comes out of this with the most cash on hand with pilot/aircraft around still is going to do well.
 
WN732
Posts: 815
Joined: Sat Feb 26, 2011 12:49 am

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Wed Apr 01, 2020 2:12 pm

twinotter wrote:
WN732 wrote:
B6 has been saying that the maintenance on the 190 is what makes it so difficult to keep on a cost basis. Are they that terrible that they can't be kept in favor of the larger jets that they really can't fill right now?


Where has Jetblue been saying this?


You just have to look:

https://www.fool.com/investing/2018/01/ ... embra.aspx
 
tzadik
Posts: 145
Joined: Tue Dec 06, 2005 2:08 am

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Thu Apr 02, 2020 1:38 am

tphuang wrote:
Agreed, would piss off a lot of locals to operate under the JetBlue brand in Hawaii. Thinking about the pluses here, NK still seems like the better merger partner for B6 if they don't have to bid a huge premium over where SAVE is trading at right now. HA still doesn't seem to bring enough to the table.


My post is pure speculation and mostly written for the purposes of something to do. I would suggest that if any kind of joining of forces is to materialize NK/B6 would make far more sense than HA. The thing that B6 needs the most is a west coast presence and while HA is about as west coast as you get they have no gates at least not enough to move the needle for B6. Obviously AS is stacked on the west coast but there's an enormous amount of hurdles to overcome there.


As for NK/B6, I could see a lot of positives...

The fleet, the exact same. Same airplanes and same engine types with both carriers having a significant amount of valuable Airbus orders. I would suggest ditching the A220 order and converting to more A320 family. Seems like the carriers with a single fleet type are in a strong position and with the advent of the XLR you can cover so many missions with the A320 family there's no real point for anything else.

NK has 3 full-time gates at LAX and at least 1-2 shared swingers. I believe B6 is similar. Let's call the combination of the two 7 full time gates in T5 at LAX. Thats definitely a sizable presence.

NK has a sizable and popular presence in Central and Northern South America. B6 basically owns the Caribbean these days. With the new longer range variants on order its easy to see a spread much deeper into South America. Which I believe is where the money is these days. I was always a bit baffled by B6's desires to get into the London market given the extreme amount of competition.

Leisure markets... Orlando, Lauderdale, New Orleans, San Juan, Las Vegas, Nashville etc... The dominance in these markets from a combined carrier would only be rivaled by WN. Add in NY which B6 is strong in and the aforementioned LAX solution you'd just have to find an answer to the Bay Area and your leisure needs are covered. I always believed NK should hit OAK a lot harder. They have a strong summer presence but it erodes to just LAS and LAX in the winter. I have no idea how many gates B6 has over at SFO but I'd imagine there's a solution to be had there.

There's all kinds of middle of the country combinations that look good as well. NK brings positive gate space and strong routes out of IAH/DFW/AUS. 4 gates at ORD, 6 in DTW, 2 in MSP. Add those with B6's existing gates and ones you could probably poach from the legacies as they downsize you have some good roots.

I would envision the combined carrier would upgrade the NK seats and downgrade the B6 ones. Get rid of the TV's. As nice as they are its so expensive to maintain those and keep up with the ever changing technology when you could just stream TV to your phones like WN does. The weight savings alone I'd imagine would be tremendous. As much as I like the Mint product I could see that going. You can't be everything to everyone and I believe a strong LCC with more of NK Big Front option up front would be better overall, I dunno call it Blue and BluePlus. If you can streamline the product and cut out some of the expensive costs I could see this being a competitive company with affordable pricing in key markets. B6 has a great name and NK has some serious cost advantages. If there could be away to combine the two and keep a competitive CASM I could see this working out. Not much a carrier couldn't do with a fleet of A319neo/A320neo/A321neo/xlr's.

Both pilot groups are ALPA and the seniority's relatively similar given both carriers came to real being around the same time. Obviously B6 would have more on the higher end of the list.

Again, before I get jumped on by realists and number crunchers.. I'm just spitballing for the sake of something to talk about on day 20 of sitting on my couch.

Be safe!!!
 
twinotter
Posts: 253
Joined: Sun Oct 17, 2004 3:13 am

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Thu Apr 02, 2020 3:59 am

WN732 wrote:
twinotter wrote:
WN732 wrote:
B6 has been saying that the maintenance on the 190 is what makes it so difficult to keep on a cost basis. Are they that terrible that they can't be kept in favor of the larger jets that they really can't fill right now?


Where has Jetblue been saying this?


You just have to look:

https://www.fool.com/investing/2018/01/ ... embra.aspx


Oh. I assumed you meant Jetblue had made a recent comment. The link you provided is an opinion piece in The Motley Fool (not associated with Jetblue) from 2018 and does not contain any commentary from Jetblue (i.e. nothing like "B6 has been saying . . . "). An entire section of the essay explains how Jetblue will likely choose Embraer E2 jets to replace their E190s.

I thought perhaps a link within that article to another Motley Fool opinion piece (from 2017) would have Jeblue commentary. And it does, saying exactly the opposite of what you posted: "(Robin Hayes) noted that JetBlue wasn't upset with the costs of the E190 . . ." The author then goes on to say why he thinks Hayes is wrong. (https://www.fool.com/investing/2017/03/ ... lanes.aspx)

The Motley Fool essays aren't a Jetblue mouthpiece.
 
MIflyer12
Posts: 8270
Joined: Mon Feb 18, 2013 11:58 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Thu Apr 02, 2020 12:35 pm

You asked for data on costs. The Motley Fool piece cited data on costs.

First, the E190 uses significantly more fuel per seat than JetBlue's Airbus fleet. Maintenance costs have also been much higher than expected. Lastly, pilot pay is rising quickly across the industry, and the E190 doesn't allow JetBlue to spread its pilot costs over as many passengers as an A320 or A321.

The net result is that JetBlue's unit costs for the E190 fleet are about 20% higher than for its A320 fleet, adjusted for stage length. That differential will get worse after JetBlue reconfigures its A320s to add 12 extra seats to each one.
 
trueblew
Posts: 158
Joined: Thu Nov 15, 2018 10:16 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Thu Apr 02, 2020 3:08 pm

tzadik wrote:
tphuang wrote:
Agreed, would piss off a lot of locals to operate under the JetBlue brand in Hawaii. Thinking about the pluses here, NK still seems like the better merger partner for B6 if they don't have to bid a huge premium over where SAVE is trading at right now. HA still doesn't seem to bring enough to the table.


My post is pure speculation and mostly written for the purposes of something to do. I would suggest that if any kind of joining of forces is to materialize NK/B6 would make far more sense than HA. The thing that B6 needs the most is a west coast presence and while HA is about as west coast as you get they have no gates at least not enough to move the needle for B6. Obviously AS is stacked on the west coast but there's an enormous amount of hurdles to overcome there.


As for NK/B6, I could see a lot of positives...

The fleet, the exact same. Same airplanes and same engine types with both carriers having a significant amount of valuable Airbus orders. I would suggest ditching the A220 order and converting to more A320 family. Seems like the carriers with a single fleet type are in a strong position and with the advent of the XLR you can cover so many missions with the A320 family there's no real point for anything else.

NK has 3 full-time gates at LAX and at least 1-2 shared swingers. I believe B6 is similar. Let's call the combination of the two 7 full time gates in T5 at LAX. Thats definitely a sizable presence.

NK has a sizable and popular presence in Central and Northern South America. B6 basically owns the Caribbean these days. With the new longer range variants on order its easy to see a spread much deeper into South America. Which I believe is where the money is these days. I was always a bit baffled by B6's desires to get into the London market given the extreme amount of competition.

Leisure markets... Orlando, Lauderdale, New Orleans, San Juan, Las Vegas, Nashville etc... The dominance in these markets from a combined carrier would only be rivaled by WN. Add in NY which B6 is strong in and the aforementioned LAX solution you'd just have to find an answer to the Bay Area and your leisure needs are covered. I always believed NK should hit OAK a lot harder. They have a strong summer presence but it erodes to just LAS and LAX in the winter. I have no idea how many gates B6 has over at SFO but I'd imagine there's a solution to be had there.

There's all kinds of middle of the country combinations that look good as well. NK brings positive gate space and strong routes out of IAH/DFW/AUS. 4 gates at ORD, 6 in DTW, 2 in MSP. Add those with B6's existing gates and ones you could probably poach from the legacies as they downsize you have some good roots.

I would envision the combined carrier would upgrade the NK seats and downgrade the B6 ones. Get rid of the TV's. As nice as they are its so expensive to maintain those and keep up with the ever changing technology when you could just stream TV to your phones like WN does. The weight savings alone I'd imagine would be tremendous. As much as I like the Mint product I could see that going. You can't be everything to everyone and I believe a strong LCC with more of NK Big Front option up front would be better overall, I dunno call it Blue and BluePlus. If you can streamline the product and cut out some of the expensive costs I could see this being a competitive company with affordable pricing in key markets. B6 has a great name and NK has some serious cost advantages. If there could be away to combine the two and keep a competitive CASM I could see this working out. Not much a carrier couldn't do with a fleet of A319neo/A320neo/A321neo/xlr's.

Both pilot groups are ALPA and the seniority's relatively similar given both carriers came to real being around the same time. Obviously B6 would have more on the higher end of the list.

Again, before I get jumped on by realists and number crunchers.. I'm just spitballing for the sake of something to talk about on day 20 of sitting on my couch.

Be safe!!!


For the TL;DR crowd, I interpreted this as "turn JetBlue into Spirit." No 220s, no TVs, no premium product, focus on low-yield markets.

While JB/Spirit may indeed work well, it certainly won't work under that framework.
 
twinotter
Posts: 253
Joined: Sun Oct 17, 2004 3:13 am

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Thu Apr 02, 2020 4:06 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
Lastly, pilot pay is rising quickly across the industry, and the E190 doesn't allow JetBlue to spread its pilot costs over as many passengers as an A320 or A321.


LOL. Well, pilot pay is rising quickly right now! Hypothetically speaking, imagine a scenario where some significant external event affected the airline industry and Jetblue was forced operate nearly empty flights just to maintain a minimum level of service. Which of their aircraft is cheapest to operate with zero passengers?
 
tzadik
Posts: 145
Joined: Tue Dec 06, 2005 2:08 am

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Thu Apr 02, 2020 4:41 pm

trueblew wrote:
For the TL;DR crowd, I interpreted this as "turn JetBlue into Spirit." No 220s, no TVs, no premium product, focus on low-yield markets.

While JB/Spirit may indeed work well, it certainly won't work under that framework.


That interpretation unfortunately missed the mark. Turn the combined into a single fleet low cost carrier with an actual direction more akin to a WN with perhaps a modern flair was more of what I was going for.
 
tphuang
Posts: 5331
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Thu Apr 02, 2020 6:12 pm

tzadik wrote:
trueblew wrote:
For the TL;DR crowd, I interpreted this as "turn JetBlue into Spirit." No 220s, no TVs, no premium product, focus on low-yield markets.

While JB/Spirit may indeed work well, it certainly won't work under that framework.


That interpretation unfortunately missed the mark. Turn the combined into a single fleet low cost carrier with an actual direction more akin to a WN with perhaps a modern flair was more of what I was going for.


I have to agree with trueblew on this one. A lot of your suggestions seem to just turn JetBlue into Spirit. You have to consider what makes money for JetBlue during normal times and why such a methodology would not work here. Your suggestion of turning JetBlue even into a lower end WN just would not work here in NYC or Boston. What has allowed JetBlue to have yield premium over legacy carriers is the product. And they would blow all of that away if they diminish their product in the way that you would suggest. For example, mint is either the most profitable or the second most profitable segment in their system. It would be crazy to drop that to merge with NK. Europe, especially London, is very important for their corporate client base in Boston and New York. It's a market they need to get into. Same reason they fly into Dallas, Atlanta and Minnesota. All markets they loose heavily on.

For what I think they could get from NK.
FLL - They'd easily be the largest carrier at FLL and may also cause WN's complete retreat there, which would give them even more gates. Enough gates to really compete against AA and fully build out their connection to Latin America.
MCO - They'd be about the same size as WN and dominate a lot of these secondary east coast to MCO markets and can get more monopoly pricing in.
LGA - they get at least the 11 slots + whatever DL may need to give up for WS JV + slot exchange with UA. Maybe they can get to 35 slots at LGA. That would be huge.
LAX - Having additional gates there + NK's gates would give them 9 or 10 gates at LAX. That's a lot of gates they can use to build stuff up. They can do like 15x daily with mint to JFK, 6x daily to BOS, 6x daily to FLL, 5x daily to IAD/BWI and so on.
New market - it would not cost them additional money to open up new stations in a lot of the midwest and latin american countries.

All these would rely on some kind of fleet transitioning project. They'd need to figure out what to do with the 2 different brands. Maybe you have some markets, especially to Florida/LAS/MSY, to be more NK like (220 seats A321s, no TV, still snacks and free wifi). That along with the heavy VFR markets probably don't need 32 inch pitch seats and seatback TVs. We will see what JetBlue management really thinks about A220. But I think that's still a major game changer for them.
 
Nicknuzzii
Posts: 1237
Joined: Sat Sep 15, 2018 5:57 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Thu Apr 02, 2020 6:14 pm

I do not think either airlines priority in NYC is LGA but I think it is actually EWR.
 
tphuang
Posts: 5331
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Thu Apr 02, 2020 6:44 pm

Nicknuzzii wrote:
I do not think either airlines priority in NYC is LGA but I think it is actually EWR.

well, if they do have a merger with NK, it would allow them to also compete better at EWR. They can run lower CASM product on EWR-SJU/STI/SDQ and similar routes. But my guess is that they are not going to be gate constrained at EWR coming out of this. LGA will most likely still be slot constrained unless AA does not restore its LGA flights by this point next year.
 
tzadik
Posts: 145
Joined: Tue Dec 06, 2005 2:08 am

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Thu Apr 02, 2020 7:21 pm

tphuang wrote:
I have to agree with trueblew on this one. A lot of your suggestions seem to just turn JetBlue into Spirit. You have to consider what makes money for JetBlue during normal times and why such a methodology would not work here. Your suggestion of turning JetBlue even into a lower end WN just would not work here in NYC or Boston. What has allowed JetBlue to have yield premium over legacy carriers is the product. And they would blow all of that away if they diminish their product in the way that you would suggest. For example, mint is either the most profitable or the second most profitable segment in their system. It would be crazy to drop that to merge with NK. Europe, especially London, is very important for their corporate client base in Boston and New York. It's a market they need to get into. Same reason they fly into Dallas, Atlanta and Minnesota. All markets they loose heavily on.

For what I think they could get from NK.
FLL - They'd easily be the largest carrier at FLL and may also cause WN's complete retreat there, which would give them even more gates. Enough gates to really compete against AA and fully build out their connection to Latin America.
MCO - They'd be about the same size as WN and dominate a lot of these secondary east coast to MCO markets and can get more monopoly pricing in.
LGA - they get at least the 11 slots + whatever DL may need to give up for WS JV + slot exchange with UA. Maybe they can get to 35 slots at LGA. That would be huge.
LAX - Having additional gates there + NK's gates would give them 9 or 10 gates at LAX. That's a lot of gates they can use to build stuff up. They can do like 15x daily with mint to JFK, 6x daily to BOS, 6x daily to FLL, 5x daily to IAD/BWI and so on.
New market - it would not cost them additional money to open up new stations in a lot of the midwest and latin american countries.

All these would rely on some kind of fleet transitioning project. They'd need to figure out what to do with the 2 different brands. Maybe you have some markets, especially to Florida/LAS/MSY, to be more NK like (220 seats A321s, no TV, still snacks and free wifi). That along with the heavy VFR markets probably don't need 32 inch pitch seats and seatback TVs. We will see what JetBlue management really thinks about A220. But I think that's still a major game changer for them.


I can see where you're coming from re: NY/BOS premium services and clientele and I appreciate your input, but while profitable thats a niche market and the model hasn't really expanded beyond that. I've read many an article skeptical about their European aspirations, that's a highly competitive market and I'll be very interested to see how it plays out. Granted I don't know much about the needs of the north east traveller but I do know that the majority of the country cares far more about price than they do standard definition TV screens in the seat back. What you say does check out though as WN is extremely popular with the business crowd due to the flexibilities and frequency they've never really seemed to make a huge impact in NY/BOS area. I just have my doubts if B6 can ever be more than what it is with its current model. Seems as if they've all but given up on intra west coast (I realize yields are lower). NK has a great presence in LAS, BWI and one in PHL as well. Could be interesting if done right, but I have my doubts that the "right" way is the current model and not a trimming of the product for the purposes of being more cost competitive in all sectors of the country.
 
SoCalFlyer
Posts: 73
Joined: Fri Oct 10, 2014 12:16 am

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Thu Apr 02, 2020 8:21 pm

tzadik wrote:
tphuang wrote:
I have to agree with trueblew on this one. A lot of your suggestions seem to just turn JetBlue into Spirit. You have to consider what makes money for JetBlue during normal times and why such a methodology would not work here. Your suggestion of turning JetBlue even into a lower end WN just would not work here in NYC or Boston. What has allowed JetBlue to have yield premium over legacy carriers is the product. And they would blow all of that away if they diminish their product in the way that you would suggest. For example, mint is either the most profitable or the second most profitable segment in their system. It would be crazy to drop that to merge with NK. Europe, especially London, is very important for their corporate client base in Boston and New York. It's a market they need to get into. Same reason they fly into Dallas, Atlanta and Minnesota. All markets they loose heavily on.

For what I think they could get from NK.
FLL - They'd easily be the largest carrier at FLL and may also cause WN's complete retreat there, which would give them even more gates. Enough gates to really compete against AA and fully build out their connection to Latin America.
MCO - They'd be about the same size as WN and dominate a lot of these secondary east coast to MCO markets and can get more monopoly pricing in.
LGA - they get at least the 11 slots + whatever DL may need to give up for WS JV + slot exchange with UA. Maybe they can get to 35 slots at LGA. That would be huge.
LAX - Having additional gates there + NK's gates would give them 9 or 10 gates at LAX. That's a lot of gates they can use to build stuff up. They can do like 15x daily with mint to JFK, 6x daily to BOS, 6x daily to FLL, 5x daily to IAD/BWI and so on.
New market - it would not cost them additional money to open up new stations in a lot of the midwest and latin american countries.

All these would rely on some kind of fleet transitioning project. They'd need to figure out what to do with the 2 different brands. Maybe you have some markets, especially to Florida/LAS/MSY, to be more NK like (220 seats A321s, no TV, still snacks and free wifi). That along with the heavy VFR markets probably don't need 32 inch pitch seats and seatback TVs. We will see what JetBlue management really thinks about A220. But I think that's still a major game changer for them.


I can see where you're coming from re: NY/BOS premium services and clientele and I appreciate your input, but while profitable thats a niche market and the model hasn't really expanded beyond that. I've read many an article skeptical about their European aspirations, that's a highly competitive market and I'll be very interested to see how it plays out. Granted I don't know much about the needs of the north east traveller but I do know that the majority of the country cares far more about price than they do standard definition TV screens in the seat back. What you say does check out though as WN is extremely popular with the business crowd due to the flexibilities and frequency they've never really seemed to make a huge impact in NY/BOS area. I just have my doubts if B6 can ever be more than what it is with its current model. Seems as if they've all but given up on intra west coast (I realize yields are lower). NK has a great presence in LAS, BWI and one in PHL as well. Could be interesting if done right, but I have my doubts that the "right" way is the current model and not a trimming of the product for the purposes of being more cost competitive in all sectors of the country.



So, turning Spirit into Jetblue? Interesting, it could work. How much would the cost for something cost? I'd imagine the pay off in the long run would be worth it. Either way I see the Jetblue brand and product surviving this and greatly benefiting in a lot of ways due to this coronavirus mess.
 
B6BOSfan
Posts: 62
Joined: Fri Apr 19, 2019 5:11 am

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Fri Apr 03, 2020 9:21 pm

Jetblue note to crewmembers -- posted publicly on their website spell out the staggering situation for the airline
http://blueir.investproductions.com/inv ... -212054920

- 7,000 customers expected daily in April and possibly May vs. the 120,000 typically
- Taking in only $1 million a day (vs $22 million normally)
- Issuing $2 million in cash refunds a daily (essentially, loss of $1 million a day in cash)
- Issuing $11 million per day of travel bank credits for canceled bookings
- 70% April schedule reduction (at least)
- Parking over 100 aircraft in April; over 100 in the Arizona desert and at BlueCities around the country
- They have submitted application with government for payroll support
- "We still need to raise additional money to pay our other operating expenses. We will be talking to the government and other lenders in the coming weeks."
- "One requirement of accepting payroll support is that we continue to provide a reasonable level of service across our domestic network. With dramatically fewer Customers, we have to take a hard look at our schedule to meet those requirements while also pulling down further flying."

Good to be close with NY Senator Chuck Schumer
" I want to again thank President Trump, his administration, and Congress – especially our very own Senator Schumer – for their bipartisan support."
 
tphuang
Posts: 5331
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Fri Apr 03, 2020 11:30 pm

B6BOSfan wrote:
Jetblue note to crewmembers -- posted publicly on their website spell out the staggering situation for the airline
http://blueir.investproductions.com/inv ... -212054920

- 7,000 customers expected daily in April and possibly May vs. the 120,000 typically
- Taking in only $1 million a day (vs $22 million normally)
- Issuing $2 million in cash refunds a daily (essentially, loss of $1 million a day in cash)
- Issuing $11 million per day of travel bank credits for canceled bookings
- 70% April schedule reduction (at least)
- Parking over 100 aircraft in April; over 100 in the Arizona desert and at BlueCities around the country
- They have submitted application with government for payroll support
- "We still need to raise additional money to pay our other operating expenses. We will be talking to the government and other lenders in the coming weeks."
- "One requirement of accepting payroll support is that we continue to provide a reasonable level of service across our domestic network. With dramatically fewer Customers, we have to take a hard look at our schedule to meet those requirements while also pulling down further flying."

Good to be close with NY Senator Chuck Schumer
" I want to again thank President Trump, his administration, and Congress – especially our very own Senator Schumer – for their bipartisan support."


Thanks for posting this.

Keep in the mind the comment on how much travel bank credits they are issuing. That means even when people start to fly again, they will be flying with travel bank credits rather than cash. No comment on how much cash they have on hand and how much they have left to draw from.

They are burning over $10 million a day. To put that into perspective, Delta is burning about $60 million a day and UA is burning around $50 to 60 a million. Let's say with the 70% cut to their schedule and aircraft parking, they can get themselves to burning under $10 million a day over Q2 and things get a little better in Q3 and a little better than that in Q4. That's all assuming they don't ramp up too quick and lose more money flying too many flights of half empty aircraft.

They could at best last until end of this year with the cash on hand. At this point, I don't think they should plan to break even until at least Q2 of next year. Maybe even that is optimistic. We will see. It does help that domestic and Caribbean travel are likely to return before all the other stuff.

It seems like DL is eligible for $6 billion in grant and another 6 in loan. B6 payroll is about 1/6 that of DL, so they should be eligibile for $1 billion in each. Looking at the letter, it seems like they are only applying for grant for now. My guess based on their comment is that they are looking for other lenders including the state gov't before applying for loan money. If they can get another $1 billion for states and banks, that might take them to Q2 of next year. It's no surprise they are doing things to suck up to Schumer and Cuomo. That's their best shot. They should also get on the phone with Baker and DeSantis and see if they can get some money in exchange for promises of more jobs in the state.

If you are working in the front line of JetBlue, taking this grant money at least gives hope they are not going to furlough when this is done. Love to hear JetBlue employee thoughts on this.

The other upshot of this is I think NK is trying to get through this without grant/loan for federal gov't. I don't see how they make it to next year without federal money. Which means they are going to have to merge with someone or get acquired by some investors.
 
CobaltScar
Posts: 752
Joined: Thu Mar 23, 2017 2:30 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sat Apr 04, 2020 12:27 am

Paid leaves are being offered but at no where near full time hours.
 
tzadik
Posts: 145
Joined: Tue Dec 06, 2005 2:08 am

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sat Apr 04, 2020 2:43 am

tphuang wrote:

The other upshot of this is I think NK is trying to get through this without grant/loan for federal gov't. I don't see how they make it to next year without federal money. Which means they are going to have to merge with someone or get acquired by some investors.


NK applied for the money today.
 
JoseSalazar
Posts: 255
Joined: Mon Oct 14, 2019 3:18 am

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sat Apr 04, 2020 3:10 am

tphuang wrote:
B6BOSfan wrote:
Jetblue note to crewmembers -- posted publicly on their website spell out the staggering situation for the airline
http://blueir.investproductions.com/inv ... -212054920

- 7,000 customers expected daily in April and possibly May vs. the 120,000 typically
- Taking in only $1 million a day (vs $22 million normally)
- Issuing $2 million in cash refunds a daily (essentially, loss of $1 million a day in cash)
- Issuing $11 million per day of travel bank credits for canceled bookings
- 70% April schedule reduction (at least)
- Parking over 100 aircraft in April; over 100 in the Arizona desert and at BlueCities around the country
- They have submitted application with government for payroll support
- "We still need to raise additional money to pay our other operating expenses. We will be talking to the government and other lenders in the coming weeks."
- "One requirement of accepting payroll support is that we continue to provide a reasonable level of service across our domestic network. With dramatically fewer Customers, we have to take a hard look at our schedule to meet those requirements while also pulling down further flying."

Good to be close with NY Senator Chuck Schumer
" I want to again thank President Trump, his administration, and Congress – especially our very own Senator Schumer – for their bipartisan support."


Thanks for posting this.

Keep in the mind the comment on how much travel bank credits they are issuing. That means even when people start to fly again, they will be flying with travel bank credits rather than cash. No comment on how much cash they have on hand and how much they have left to draw from.

They are burning over $10 million a day. To put that into perspective, Delta is burning about $60 million a day and UA is burning around $50 to 60 a million. Let's say with the 70% cut to their schedule and aircraft parking, they can get themselves to burning under $10 million a day over Q2 and things get a little better in Q3 and a little better than that in Q4. That's all assuming they don't ramp up too quick and lose more money flying too many flights of half empty aircraft.

They could at best last until end of this year with the cash on hand. At this point, I don't think they should plan to break even until at least Q2 of next year. Maybe even that is optimistic. We will see. It does help that domestic and Caribbean travel are likely to return before all the other stuff.

It seems like DL is eligible for $6 billion in grant and another 6 in loan. B6 payroll is about 1/6 that of DL, so they should be eligibile for $1 billion in each. Looking at the letter, it seems like they are only applying for grant for now. My guess based on their comment is that they are looking for other lenders including the state gov't before applying for loan money. If they can get another $1 billion for states and banks, that might take them to Q2 of next year. It's no surprise they are doing things to suck up to Schumer and Cuomo. That's their best shot. They should also get on the phone with Baker and DeSantis and see if they can get some money in exchange for promises of more jobs in the state.

If you are working in the front line of JetBlue, taking this grant money at least gives hope they are not going to furlough when this is done. Love to hear JetBlue employee thoughts on this.

The other upshot of this is I think NK is trying to get through this without grant/loan for federal gov't. I don't see how they make it to next year without federal money. Which means they are going to have to merge with someone or get acquired by some investors.


I think B6 employees are happy they applied for the grant money. Without it there’d likely be massive furloughs sooner rather than later. That said, I think most front line employees are still going to be sweating bullets for at least the next 8 months or until there’s either an uptick in travel, or at least some sort of positive news/change in all this. Many are still not confident that there will still be a jetblue in 12-18 months. What seemed like very stable employment a few months ago now has people scrambling to save money everywhere they can. But that’s no different than at any other airline. Many of my friends at B6 (and other airlines) are trying to line up jobs elsewhere as a backup. The problem is, with TSA/CPZ now closed, pilot hiring stopped most places, “backup jobs” are getting filled up, and if/when mass furloughs happen, there won’t be any flying jobs to come by. I think everyone in the bottom 10-50% of the seniority list at B6, and probably everywhere else, be uneasy for a while.
 
tphuang
Posts: 5331
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sat Apr 04, 2020 9:44 am

tzadik wrote:
tphuang wrote:

The other upshot of this is I think NK is trying to get through this without grant/loan for federal gov't. I don't see how they make it to next year without federal money. Which means they are going to have to merge with someone or get acquired by some investors.


NK applied for the money today.

Yes but they and other ulccs have dramatically reduced destinations which means they don’t meet the conditions. You can’t have some airlines get it and not meet the conditions, especially one that flies a regular schedule like nk. Don’t see how they get money out of this.

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