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CRJ5000
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sat Apr 04, 2020 10:35 am

tphuang wrote:
tzadik wrote:
tphuang wrote:

The other upshot of this is I think NK is trying to get through this without grant/loan for federal gov't. I don't see how they make it to next year without federal money. Which means they are going to have to merge with someone or get acquired by some investors.


NK applied for the money today.

Yes but they and other ulccs have dramatically reduced destinations which means they don’t meet the conditions. You can’t have some airlines get it and not meet the conditions, especially one that flies a regular schedule like nk. Don’t see how they get money out of this.



It will be interesting to see if the government makes concessions to smaller carriers. The verbiage of the grants states that airlines may request exemptions to the minimum service levels where it would not be "reasonable or practical" to maintain service. In my mind, it is absolutely not reasonable or practical for most of the smaller carriers to maintain service to fly a few people around each flight during a pandemic.
The grants seem to be written catering to larger carriers that are easily able to consolidate their large networks into single daily flights whereas small carriers have to fly a much less reduced schedule to adhere to these requirements.
 
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jfklganyc
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sat Apr 04, 2020 11:04 am

“ . I think everyone in the bottom 10-50% of the seniority list at B6, and probably everywhere else, be uneasy for a while.”

If they are not uneasy, they haven’t been paying attention

But if you have been flying throughout all of this, you know the story

Hopefully, this grant money takes them to a better period when people start flying again and layoffs are minimal.

However if you have been an airport lately it is painfully obvious that they cannot stay in this level of employment beyond whatever the government is paying for.
 
flyby519
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sat Apr 04, 2020 11:14 am

jfklganyc wrote:
“ . I think everyone in the bottom 10-50% of the seniority list at B6, and probably everywhere else, be uneasy for a while.”

If they are not uneasy, they haven’t been paying attention

But if you have been flying throughout all of this, you know the story

Hopefully, this grant money takes them to a better period when people start flying again and layoffs are minimal.

However if you have been an airport lately it is painfully obvious that they cannot stay in this level of employment beyond whatever the government is paying for.


And if you haven’t been to the airport recently then this tells the story:

https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput
 
Brickell305
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sat Apr 04, 2020 12:01 pm

CRJ5000 wrote:
tphuang wrote:
tzadik wrote:

NK applied for the money today.

Yes but they and other ulccs have dramatically reduced destinations which means they don’t meet the conditions. You can’t have some airlines get it and not meet the conditions, especially one that flies a regular schedule like nk. Don’t see how they get money out of this.



It will be interesting to see if the government makes concessions to smaller carriers. The verbiage of the grants states that airlines may request exemptions to the minimum service levels where it would not be "reasonable or practical" to maintain service. In my mind, it is absolutely not reasonable or practical for most of the smaller carriers to maintain service to fly a few people around each flight during a pandemic.
The grants seem to be written catering to larger carriers that are easily able to consolidate their large networks into single daily flights whereas small carriers have to fly a much less reduced schedule to adhere to these requirements.

I highly doubt the “reasonable or practical” refers to financial considerations. It likely refers to factors outside of the airline’s control that impede the airline executing its duty e.g. all the staff at a particular station becoming sick and unable to work.
 
CRJ5000
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sat Apr 04, 2020 12:42 pm

Brickell305 wrote:
CRJ5000 wrote:
tphuang wrote:
Yes but they and other ulccs have dramatically reduced destinations which means they don’t meet the conditions. You can’t have some airlines get it and not meet the conditions, especially one that flies a regular schedule like nk. Don’t see how they get money out of this.



It will be interesting to see if the government makes concessions to smaller carriers. The verbiage of the grants states that airlines may request exemptions to the minimum service levels where it would not be "reasonable or practical" to maintain service. In my mind, it is absolutely not reasonable or practical for most of the smaller carriers to maintain service to fly a few people around each flight during a pandemic.
The grants seem to be written catering to larger carriers that are easily able to consolidate their large networks into single daily flights whereas small carriers have to fly a much less reduced schedule to adhere to these requirements.

I highly doubt the “reasonable or practical” refers to financial considerations. It likely refers to factors outside of the airline’s control that impede the airline executing its duty e.g. all the staff at a particular station becoming sick and unable to work.


True, however it seems most on this board (and certainly many off this board as well) feel it isn’t reasonable and practical to continue flying based off of health and pandemic reasons alone, regardless of other factors. In my mind it isn’t reasonable to tell people to socially distance and shelter in their home, but feel free to get in an airplane and fly somewhere. I understand healthcare workers need to move around, mail, cargo, etc but it’s definitely overkill to keep this level of service.
 
Brickell305
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sat Apr 04, 2020 12:56 pm

CRJ5000 wrote:
Brickell305 wrote:
CRJ5000 wrote:


It will be interesting to see if the government makes concessions to smaller carriers. The verbiage of the grants states that airlines may request exemptions to the minimum service levels where it would not be "reasonable or practical" to maintain service. In my mind, it is absolutely not reasonable or practical for most of the smaller carriers to maintain service to fly a few people around each flight during a pandemic.
The grants seem to be written catering to larger carriers that are easily able to consolidate their large networks into single daily flights whereas small carriers have to fly a much less reduced schedule to adhere to these requirements.

I highly doubt the “reasonable or practical” refers to financial considerations. It likely refers to factors outside of the airline’s control that impede the airline executing its duty e.g. all the staff at a particular station becoming sick and unable to work.


True, however it seems most on this board (and certainly many off this board as well) feel it isn’t reasonable and practical to continue flying based off of health and pandemic reasons alone, regardless of other factors. In my mind it isn’t reasonable to tell people to socially distance and shelter in their home, but feel free to get in an airplane and fly somewhere. I understand healthcare workers need to move around, mail, cargo, etc but it’s definitely overkill to keep this level of service.

Thing is that clause was added with full knowledge of the pandemic. In fact the pandemic was the impetus for the bill itself. They’re not going to be able to use the pandemic itself as a reason not to comply with the provisions of the bill that’s supposed to ease the effects of the pandemic. I’d be interested to see if NK’s decision to drop NYC service fits the “practical and reasonable” exception as it occurred after a CDC travel advisory. While the advisory warned against travel to the area, it didn’t outright prohibit it. I’d love to see how that is regarded.
 
tphuang
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sat Apr 04, 2020 1:04 pm

CRJ5000 wrote:
Brickell305 wrote:
CRJ5000 wrote:


It will be interesting to see if the government makes concessions to smaller carriers. The verbiage of the grants states that airlines may request exemptions to the minimum service levels where it would not be "reasonable or practical" to maintain service. In my mind, it is absolutely not reasonable or practical for most of the smaller carriers to maintain service to fly a few people around each flight during a pandemic.
The grants seem to be written catering to larger carriers that are easily able to consolidate their large networks into single daily flights whereas small carriers have to fly a much less reduced schedule to adhere to these requirements.

I highly doubt the “reasonable or practical” refers to financial considerations. It likely refers to factors outside of the airline’s control that impede the airline executing its duty e.g. all the staff at a particular station becoming sick and unable to work.



True, however it seems most on this board (and certainly many off this board as well) feel it isn’t reasonable and practical to continue flying based off of health and pandemic reasons alone, regardless of other factors. In my mind it isn’t reasonable to tell people to socially distance and shelter in their home, but feel free to get in an airplane and fly somewhere. I understand healthcare workers need to move around, mail, cargo, etc but it’s definitely overkill to keep this level of service.


These are the conditions of the bailout. ULCCs have made the decision they don't want to fill these conditions due to the financial implications. You think JetBlue and southwest don't want to fly less? Every flight loses money right now. I can at least under F9/G4 due to the nature of their business. But in NK's case, it flies regular daily schedule to most of its destinations. If it thinks a station like AUS cannot support 9 daily flights, it can reduce that to just 1 daily flight. But it chose to not do any of that. We will see what happens, but it's hard for me to see ULCCs get money unless they fly more than they plan to.
 
CRJ5000
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sat Apr 04, 2020 1:18 pm

tphuang wrote:
CRJ5000 wrote:
Brickell305 wrote:
I highly doubt the “reasonable or practical” refers to financial considerations. It likely refers to factors outside of the airline’s control that impede the airline executing its duty e.g. all the staff at a particular station becoming sick and unable to work.



True, however it seems most on this board (and certainly many off this board as well) feel it isn’t reasonable and practical to continue flying based off of health and pandemic reasons alone, regardless of other factors. In my mind it isn’t reasonable to tell people to socially distance and shelter in their home, but feel free to get in an airplane and fly somewhere. I understand healthcare workers need to move around, mail, cargo, etc but it’s definitely overkill to keep this level of service.


These are the conditions of the bailout. ULCCs have made the decision they don't want to fill these conditions due to the financial implications. You think JetBlue and southwest don't want to fly less? Every flight loses money right now. I can at least under F9/G4 due to the nature of their business. But in NK's case, it flies regular daily schedule to most of its destinations. If it thinks a station like AUS cannot support 9 daily flights, it can reduce that to just 1 daily flight. But it chose to not do any of that. We will see what happens, but it's hard for me to see ULCCs get money unless they fly more than they plan to.


I guess we’ll see what happens next week. It’s quite possible that carriers will adjust schedules based off of what response they get from the government from their proposal. I’m guessing most if not all airlines have asked for exemptions. It’s just much easier for airlines who have dozens of flights to a city to reduce to a single flight than carriers with only one or two. I’d bet B6 and definitely AS have asked for numerous exemptions. I’m hearing rumors that AS is ready to cut much further than they’ve currently announced.
 
tphuang
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sat Apr 04, 2020 5:54 pm

This is from a few days back where JetBlue was cutting 70% of their schedule.
https://paxex.aero/2020/03/jetblue-cut- ... perations/

another article said JFK will be down to 40 flights a day, but this one says 60. BOS will be down to 55 flights a day.

Just taking a look at BOS, it looks like they are still trying to maintain service to most of the cities. Even places like IAH which is basically seeing no schedule cut. Some other places like ATL has become 5x weekly. I'm sure this is basically to make sure they maintain the minimum flying required to get the gov't grants.

Looking at competitors.
AA hasn't seemed to have made that many cuts. Can't believe they are still running 3x daily to ROC and 1x daily to SYR.
DL has basically cut BOS down to spoke. With 18 flights total to core hubs + JFK/LGA/LAX
UA is down to 11 flights to its hubs.
WN still has quite a few flights.
NK seems to be down to 1x daily to FLL
F9 down to 1x daily to MCO.

B6 is now the only carrier to most of the non-hub destinations out of BOS. I don't know if they can work that angle to get some favour from state gov't and/or MassPort since they are providing essential air service to Massachusetts at a time of need. They've tried to work that angle in NY by providing free flights to health care workers, but DL is still flying to most destinations out of JFK/LGA. At this point, B6 needs all the help they can get.
 
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jfklganyc
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sun Apr 05, 2020 11:42 am

You guys miss the appearance factor and ensuing panic if America goes to far

That is the reason for the reasonable level of service provision.

That is the reason most mass transit is still running

Beyond the few people that “have to” get somewhere, the provision allows the government to show its people that society hasnt gone completely off the rails...even though it gets a little worse each day

The psyche of a nations people is extremely important and I think a lot of you miss the meaning of this provision because you overlook that
 
tphuang
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sun Apr 05, 2020 2:45 pm

From OAG, looks like JetBlue made some more May cuts + extended their schedule. They still seem to have quite a schedule in May (not cut back like in April), so I'd expect further cuts in may.Not really sure if there is actually any meaning to the Q4 schedule at this point. But it does look like they extended it with some of the recent JFK/BOS adds rolled back. I'm sure when we get closer, they will cut back further.

AA's May cuts are in. Looks like they are down to 25x daily flight to hub cities out of BOS and about 11 flights out of JFK. UA is down to under 20 flights between EWR/LGA. Given all of this, I would not be surprised if B6 cuts more from JFK in the days ahead. Unlike legacy carriers, they don't have a middle of the country hub to connect through, so they likely will not cut JFK down to under 20 flights.
 
tphuang
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Mon Apr 06, 2020 1:32 am

Alright, looks like AA is going to be down to 13 flights a day out of NYC for the next month. That is under 30 flights a day between AA/UA, mostly to hub cities. I'm not really sure what kind of plans DL has, but B6 had planned to operate 60 flights a day out of NYC and as few as 40. I don't know if they will continue with that plan, but they may need to operate some flights they don't want in order to maintain minimum flying requirements.

I'm just thinking that since they have committed to get PR and in good grace with Cuomo by flying health care worker for free. Maybe if they keep this up and end up being the only carrier to fly to non-hub destinations due to their status as the home town carrier; they will get awarded for their effort. Again, no idea what kind of negotiations are going on in the background, but that's a possibility. On the other hand, with more people getting infected everyday in NYC, especially Queens, it might become too difficult for them to comit to such a schedule.
 
tphuang
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Tue Apr 07, 2020 2:35 pm

Alright, the CARES act has been finalized and I think JetBlue will be very happy about this. Instead of having to serve markets 5x weekly that was at least 5x weekly previously. They now only have to serve those markets 3x weekly. And they can use 2019 summer or 2020 winter schedule. Which means no longer have to serve markets like PSP in summer time. And can drop frequencies in markets like ABQ/RNO/SMF/PDX to 3x weekly

They should also consider dropping ONT/SJC given that they are in the same BTS designated markets.

From this article https://thepointsguy.com/news/us-airlin ... ronavirus/
Raymond James thinks JetBlue has 8.7 month of cash to burn. I think they still need another to be safe to go here.
 
B6BOSfan
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Tue Apr 07, 2020 6:47 pm

Looks like JetBlue has begun sending a bunch of planes out to the Arizona desert. FlightRadar24 shows the following planes at MZJ or en-route:
https://www.flightradar24.com/airport/mzj/arrivals

E190 (N373JB)
A320 (N529JB)
A320 (N649JB)
A320 (N705JB)
A320 (N603JB)
E190 (N375JB)
A320 (N569JB)
A320 (N834JB)
A320 (N608JB)
 
MIflyer12
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Tue Apr 07, 2020 10:17 pm

The change referenced by tphuang is announced in the Show Cause Order dated 4/7/20. It maintained the ability of the first order to have a single airport suffice for a Service Point, rejecting an objection made by A4A, the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey (Port Authority), Airports Council International-North America (ACI-NA) and the Association of Airport Executives (AAAE).

See revised Order 2020-4-2 dated 4/7/20. https://beta.regulations.gov/document/D ... -0037-0047
 
tphuang
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Wed Apr 08, 2020 12:12 am

Looks like now that CARES has been finalized, JetBlue is ready to make its final cuts here
https://paxex.aero/2020/04/deeper-cuts- ... r-jetblue/
NYC is down to just JFK/EWR with 30 flights
Boston area is down to 28 flights.
LA area consolidates to LAX/LGB
Bay area consolidates to SFO
DC area consolidates to DCA
My guess this is probably the most they will cut too. This seems to be about 85% capacity reduction and probably the lowest on their burn rate.

The other interesting news here, probably just as important, is this new "reprotect agreeement" with AS & AA. And that JetBlue is going to try to make this more of a permanent thing. This seems like the interlining agreement that legacy airlines have long had for IRROPS. Seems like a good thing for them, especially the part with putting passengers on AA. I wonder if there is going to be some kind of cooperation with AA going forward.
 
CobaltScar
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Wed Apr 08, 2020 1:16 am

Shame it had to be with AA though instead of Delta or United. Who wants to be shackled to a corpse.
 
cpl22586
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Wed Apr 08, 2020 3:03 am

B6BOSfan wrote:
Looks like JetBlue has begun sending a bunch of planes out to the Arizona desert. FlightRadar24 shows the following planes at MZJ or en-route:
https://www.flightradar24.com/airport/mzj/arrivals

E190 (N373JB)
A320 (N529JB)
A320 (N649JB)
A320 (N705JB)
A320 (N603JB)
E190 (N375JB)
A320 (N569JB)
A320 (N834JB)
A320 (N608JB)


Tomorrow looks like they are sending
N629JB (320) from FLL
N657JB (320) from JFK
N505JB (320) from JFK
N794JB (320) from JFK
N618JB (320) from JFK
N591JB (320) from JFK
N547JB (320) from PBI
N594JB (320) from LGB
N663JB (320) from LGB
N656JB (320) from LGB
 
flyby519
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Wed Apr 08, 2020 11:08 am

CobaltScar wrote:
Shame it had to be with AA though instead of Delta or United. Who wants to be shackled to a corpse.


More opportunity honestly. You think AA can realistically serve JFK or BOS in any capacity when they come out of this thing? My bet is no, but they have significant frequent flier bases there which we could capitalize on with some sort of commercial agreement.
 
tphuang
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Wed Apr 08, 2020 12:10 pm

flyby519 wrote:
CobaltScar wrote:
Shame it had to be with AA though instead of Delta or United. Who wants to be shackled to a corpse.


More opportunity honestly. You think AA can realistically serve JFK or BOS in any capacity when they come out of this thing? My bet is no, but they have significant frequent flier bases there which we could capitalize on with some sort of commercial agreement.


Exactly. They are not going to be able to have any kind of partnership with DL as long as both are competing at JFK. So it was always between UA and AA. AA, at its current market valuation and financial situation, is not in any kind of position to do a takeover of B6. It's possible that without the current situation, AA wouldn't even be willing to do interlining with B6. But clearly, this is something that is far more beneficial for B6 than AA. I always thought AS is a natural code share partner for B6.

Coming out of this, AA will most likely be down to hub flying out of BOS and also severely cut back at JFK. If slot is not lifted at JFK, I expect AA to lease a portion of their slot portfolio to B6 as a way to counteract Delta in NYC. Maybe AA will even lease a couple of its gate at BOS down the road, since there are usage requirement for those gates that it will not be able to fulfill.

Again, really depends on how much cash B6 has coming out of this. If they have enough cash in the bank, they don't have to furlough and can start low level of growth again by second half of 2021. They can fill the void left by AA at NYC/BOS.

I think slots will definitely become available at JFK and EWR will have room to grow also. HPN should have room for growth also. They might even be able to get LGA slots depending on the financial health of UA/AA. This is like a once a in a decade opportunity for them to expand their NYC presence if they still have cash.
 
ryby92
Posts: 39
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Wed Apr 08, 2020 12:50 pm

tphuang wrote:
flyby519 wrote:
CobaltScar wrote:
Shame it had to be with AA though instead of Delta or United. Who wants to be shackled to a corpse.


More opportunity honestly. You think AA can realistically serve JFK or BOS in any capacity when they come out of this thing? My bet is no, but they have significant frequent flier bases there which we could capitalize on with some sort of commercial agreement.


Exactly. They are not going to be able to have any kind of partnership with DL as long as both are competing at JFK. So it was always between UA and AA. AA, at its current market valuation and financial situation, is not in any kind of position to do a takeover of B6. It's possible that without the current situation, AA wouldn't even be willing to do interlining with B6. But clearly, this is something that is far more beneficial for B6 than AA. I always thought AS is a natural code share partner for B6.

Coming out of this, AA will most likely be down to hub flying out of BOS and also severely cut back at JFK. If slot is not lifted at JFK, I expect AA to lease a portion of their slot portfolio to B6 as a way to counteract Delta in NYC. Maybe AA will even lease a couple of its gate at BOS down the road, since there are usage requirement for those gates that it will not be able to fulfill.

Again, really depends on how much cash B6 has coming out of this. If they have enough cash in the bank, they don't have to furlough and can start low level of growth again by second half of 2021. They can fill the void left by AA at NYC/BOS.

I think slots will definitely become available at JFK and EWR will have room to grow also. HPN should have room for growth also. They might even be able to get LGA slots depending on the financial health of UA/AA. This is like a once a in a decade opportunity for them to expand their NYC presence if they still have cash.


Too early and too fluid a situation to be salivating about cannibalizing any airline. I know you are gleefully awaiting demise of AA and cutbacks by others so beloved B6 can scoop up everything but too early to get excited. NY is the epicenter of COVID-19 and will take a much longer time to recover. No one wants to go to NY at this time nor in the short to medium term. Heck you couldn't pay me to go there now. Since B6 is all about NY almost exclusively relative to other airlines, they stand to be disproportionately adversely impacted now and into the medium term. Give that some thought and try to be balanced and objective in your analysis. Stay safe.
 
tphuang
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Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Wed Apr 08, 2020 1:14 pm

ryby92 wrote:
tphuang wrote:
flyby519 wrote:

More opportunity honestly. You think AA can realistically serve JFK or BOS in any capacity when they come out of this thing? My bet is no, but they have significant frequent flier bases there which we could capitalize on with some sort of commercial agreement.


Exactly. They are not going to be able to have any kind of partnership with DL as long as both are competing at JFK. So it was always between UA and AA. AA, at its current market valuation and financial situation, is not in any kind of position to do a takeover of B6. It's possible that without the current situation, AA wouldn't even be willing to do interlining with B6. But clearly, this is something that is far more beneficial for B6 than AA. I always thought AS is a natural code share partner for B6.

Coming out of this, AA will most likely be down to hub flying out of BOS and also severely cut back at JFK. If slot is not lifted at JFK, I expect AA to lease a portion of their slot portfolio to B6 as a way to counteract Delta in NYC. Maybe AA will even lease a couple of its gate at BOS down the road, since there are usage requirement for those gates that it will not be able to fulfill.

Again, really depends on how much cash B6 has coming out of this. If they have enough cash in the bank, they don't have to furlough and can start low level of growth again by second half of 2021. They can fill the void left by AA at NYC/BOS.

I think slots will definitely become available at JFK and EWR will have room to grow also. HPN should have room for growth also. They might even be able to get LGA slots depending on the financial health of UA/AA. This is like a once a in a decade opportunity for them to expand their NYC presence if they still have cash.


Too early and too fluid a situation to be salivating about cannibalizing any airline. I know you are gleefully awaiting demise of AA and cutbacks by others so beloved B6 can scoop up everything but too early to get excited. NY is the epicenter of COVID-19 and will take a much longer time to recover. No one wants to go to NY at this time nor in the short to medium term. Heck you couldn't pay me to go there now. Since B6 is all about NY almost exclusively relative to other airlines, they stand to be disproportionately adversely impacted now and into the medium term. Give that some thought and try to be balanced and objective in your analysis. Stay safe.


I have no idea what you are talking about. I'm certainly not salivating on demise of AA (if you replace AA with DL, you might be right). What I'm describing was already happening before COVID hit domestic travel. We saw in the same week where AA cut 30 flights from JFK and B6 adding about half that many week, indicating there was possibly a slot swap deal between the two. It certainly is a tough time for all the airlines. A partnership with AS/AA with serve B6 very well.

And since they are cutting 85% of their flights, I'd say their burn rate is pretty low right now. They had quite a bit of cash before this started and very little debt. And they will most likely qualify for CARES grant. If you don't believe me, just check what Raymond James had to say about cash on hand https://thepointsguy.com/news/us-airlin ... ronavirus/

SkyWest: 11.8 months of implied cash on hand*
Allegiant: 10.6 months
Southwest: 9.4 months
Spirit: 8.8 months
JetBlue: 8.7 months
Alaska: 6.6 months
Mesa: 6.3 months
Delta: 6.2 months
United: 5.7 months
American: 4.8 months
 
User avatar
Midwestindy
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Wed Apr 08, 2020 1:45 pm

tphuang wrote:
ryby92 wrote:
tphuang wrote:

Exactly. They are not going to be able to have any kind of partnership with DL as long as both are competing at JFK. So it was always between UA and AA. AA, at its current market valuation and financial situation, is not in any kind of position to do a takeover of B6. It's possible that without the current situation, AA wouldn't even be willing to do interlining with B6. But clearly, this is something that is far more beneficial for B6 than AA. I always thought AS is a natural code share partner for B6.

Coming out of this, AA will most likely be down to hub flying out of BOS and also severely cut back at JFK. If slot is not lifted at JFK, I expect AA to lease a portion of their slot portfolio to B6 as a way to counteract Delta in NYC. Maybe AA will even lease a couple of its gate at BOS down the road, since there are usage requirement for those gates that it will not be able to fulfill.

Again, really depends on how much cash B6 has coming out of this. If they have enough cash in the bank, they don't have to furlough and can start low level of growth again by second half of 2021. They can fill the void left by AA at NYC/BOS.

I think slots will definitely become available at JFK and EWR will have room to grow also. HPN should have room for growth also. They might even be able to get LGA slots depending on the financial health of UA/AA. This is like a once a in a decade opportunity for them to expand their NYC presence if they still have cash.


Too early and too fluid a situation to be salivating about cannibalizing any airline. I know you are gleefully awaiting demise of AA and cutbacks by others so beloved B6 can scoop up everything but too early to get excited. NY is the epicenter of COVID-19 and will take a much longer time to recover. No one wants to go to NY at this time nor in the short to medium term. Heck you couldn't pay me to go there now. Since B6 is all about NY almost exclusively relative to other airlines, they stand to be disproportionately adversely impacted now and into the medium term. Give that some thought and try to be balanced and objective in your analysis. Stay safe.


I have no idea what you are talking about. I'm certainly not salivating on demise of AA (if you replace AA with DL, you might be right). What I'm describing was already happening before COVID hit domestic travel. We saw in the same week where AA cut 30 flights from JFK and B6 adding about half that many week, indicating there was possibly a slot swap deal between the two. It certainly is a tough time for all the airlines. A partnership with AS/AA with serve B6 very well.

And since they are cutting 85% of their flights, I'd say their burn rate is pretty low right now. They had quite a bit of cash before this started and very little debt. And they will most likely qualify for CARES grant. If you don't believe me, just check what Raymond James had to say about cash on hand https://thepointsguy.com/news/us-airlin ... ronavirus/

SkyWest: 11.8 months of implied cash on hand*
Allegiant: 10.6 months
Southwest: 9.4 months
Spirit: 8.8 months
JetBlue: 8.7 months
Alaska: 6.6 months
Mesa: 6.3 months
Delta: 6.2 months
United: 5.7 months
American: 4.8 months


These are aggressive assumptions, they don't take into account CARES Act funding, and they don't take into account airlines effectively cutting 80-90% of flights. These guys are going to put out aggressive assumptions to protect their clients.
Status for 2019/2020: AAdvantage Platinum, Delta Gold, Southwest A-List
 
tphuang
Posts: 5478
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Wed Apr 08, 2020 1:57 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
tphuang wrote:
ryby92 wrote:

Too early and too fluid a situation to be salivating about cannibalizing any airline. I know you are gleefully awaiting demise of AA and cutbacks by others so beloved B6 can scoop up everything but too early to get excited. NY is the epicenter of COVID-19 and will take a much longer time to recover. No one wants to go to NY at this time nor in the short to medium term. Heck you couldn't pay me to go there now. Since B6 is all about NY almost exclusively relative to other airlines, they stand to be disproportionately adversely impacted now and into the medium term. Give that some thought and try to be balanced and objective in your analysis. Stay safe.


I have no idea what you are talking about. I'm certainly not salivating on demise of AA (if you replace AA with DL, you might be right). What I'm describing was already happening before COVID hit domestic travel. We saw in the same week where AA cut 30 flights from JFK and B6 adding about half that many week, indicating there was possibly a slot swap deal between the two. It certainly is a tough time for all the airlines. A partnership with AS/AA with serve B6 very well.

And since they are cutting 85% of their flights, I'd say their burn rate is pretty low right now. They had quite a bit of cash before this started and very little debt. And they will most likely qualify for CARES grant. If you don't believe me, just check what Raymond James had to say about cash on hand https://thepointsguy.com/news/us-airlin ... ronavirus/

SkyWest: 11.8 months of implied cash on hand*
Allegiant: 10.6 months
Southwest: 9.4 months
Spirit: 8.8 months
JetBlue: 8.7 months
Alaska: 6.6 months
Mesa: 6.3 months
Delta: 6.2 months
United: 5.7 months
American: 4.8 months


These are aggressive assumptions, they don't take into account CARES Act funding, and they don't take into account airlines effectively cutting 80-90% of flights. These guys are going to put out aggressive assumptions to protect their clients.

well, DL said they will run out of cash by June without CARES funding, so I don't know if these numbers are that aggressive. My point of posting that was to show that JetBlue is in a safer position than many other airlines. I'm assuming at this point that all non-ULCCs will get CARES funding in proportion to their salary obligations.
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Wed Apr 08, 2020 3:08 pm

tphuang wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
tphuang wrote:

I have no idea what you are talking about. I'm certainly not salivating on demise of AA (if you replace AA with DL, you might be right). What I'm describing was already happening before COVID hit domestic travel. We saw in the same week where AA cut 30 flights from JFK and B6 adding about half that many week, indicating there was possibly a slot swap deal between the two. It certainly is a tough time for all the airlines. A partnership with AS/AA with serve B6 very well.

And since they are cutting 85% of their flights, I'd say their burn rate is pretty low right now. They had quite a bit of cash before this started and very little debt. And they will most likely qualify for CARES grant. If you don't believe me, just check what Raymond James had to say about cash on hand https://thepointsguy.com/news/us-airlin ... ronavirus/

SkyWest: 11.8 months of implied cash on hand*
Allegiant: 10.6 months
Southwest: 9.4 months
Spirit: 8.8 months
JetBlue: 8.7 months
Alaska: 6.6 months
Mesa: 6.3 months
Delta: 6.2 months
United: 5.7 months
American: 4.8 months


These are aggressive assumptions, they don't take into account CARES Act funding, and they don't take into account airlines effectively cutting 80-90% of flights. These guys are going to put out aggressive assumptions to protect their clients.

well, DL said they will run out of cash by June without CARES funding, so I don't know if these numbers are that aggressive. My point of posting that was to show that JetBlue is in a safer position than many other airlines. I'm assuming at this point that all non-ULCCs will get CARES funding in proportion to their salary obligations.


What are your sources on the Delta comment, and I wouldn't be quick to argue that B6 is safer

Edit found where you are getting this from:
http://d18rn0p25nwr6d.cloudfront.net/CI ... 1cc110.pdf

"Without the self-help actions we are taking to save costs and raise new financing, that money would be gone by June."

The only way they would run out of cash by June is if they continued spending at pre-Coronavirus levels
Status for 2019/2020: AAdvantage Platinum, Delta Gold, Southwest A-List
 
tphuang
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Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Wed Apr 08, 2020 4:45 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
tphuang wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:

These are aggressive assumptions, they don't take into account CARES Act funding, and they don't take into account airlines effectively cutting 80-90% of flights. These guys are going to put out aggressive assumptions to protect their clients.

well, DL said they will run out of cash by June without CARES funding, so I don't know if these numbers are that aggressive. My point of posting that was to show that JetBlue is in a safer position than many other airlines. I'm assuming at this point that all non-ULCCs will get CARES funding in proportion to their salary obligations.


What are your sources on the Delta comment, and I wouldn't be quick to argue that B6 is safer

Edit found where you are getting this from:
http://d18rn0p25nwr6d.cloudfront.net/CI ... 1cc110.pdf

"Without the self-help actions we are taking to save costs and raise new financing, that money would be gone by June."

The only way they would run out of cash by June is if they continued spending at pre-Coronavirus levels


Alright, let's do some quick analysis here. Btw, I don't think JetBlue is in the best position of all airlines. I think both WN and G4 are in safer positions.

we know JetBlue is burning a little over $10 million a day and Delta is burning $60 million a day based on their recent filing and neither airlines are spending as much as pre-COVID. JetBlue had $1.2 billion in cash back on Mar 6th with additional $550 million in loans. They've since added another $1 billion in loan. Let's sya they've burnt through $250 million in cash since early March. They are down to about $2.5 billion in cash.

Delta simply does not have 5 or 6 times that much liquidity. They had under $3 billion in cash before this along with $3 billion in credit. They've since added another $2 billion in credit. At pre-COVID level spending, DL would be losing $85 to $90 million a day. Which if we take June as a mark (about 70 days from April 7th) , they had $5 to 6 billion left On April 7th.

Since both airlines are cutting about 80 to 90% of flights and freezing spending, the reduced level of spending should result in similar ratio of burn rate. So you have DL burning cash at 5 to 6 times that of JetBlue but with just a little over twice the amount of cash.

Let's add in CARES funding. Let's say Delta can get its burn rate down to $50 million per day and $30 million of that paid for by CARES funding over the next 6 months. That would $20 million per day burn rate over a little under 180 days roughly $3.5 billion in cash burn, which would bring their position down to about $1.5 billion in cash. Keep in mind since there is a lot of money in travel bank, operations will still be largely cash negative for Q4/Q1. And keep in mind there is normally requirements on how much cash needs to be available from creditors. So you don't get to $0 in cash before creditors start to take stuff away. Bottom line is that $1.5 billion is not enough to get them through Q4. Question is how much additional cash do they need in order to get through Q4/Q1. That's really dependent on the economy, drug treatment advances and if there will be further bailouts. If we conservatively say $40 million a day in Oct, $30 million a day in Nov, $20 million a day in Dec, $25 million a day in Jan/Feb, $15 million a day in March, $10 million a day in April, $5 million a day in May before becoming positive. They would need over $5 billion to get to summer when airlines will probably be cash positive. So at minimum, they'd need to secure at least $4 billion more in loans to not file chapter 11. The probably need $6 billion more actually to be safe. And that's assuming they don't go cash negative again in Sep/Oct. If we go by the logic that the more you fly, the more money you lose, then they'd need to be pretty slow in adding back flights to keep down the burn rate.

Let's take a look at B6. Let's say they get $5 million per day in CARES grant over the next 6 month and can get their burn rate down to $9 million a day over the next 6 month. That would be $4 million per day burn rate over a little under 180 days, so about $700 in cash burn, which would bring their cash position down to about $1.8 billion.

Using similar model to DL for B6, let's say they burn $7 million in Oct, $6 million in Nov, $4 million in Dec, $5 million in Jan/Feb, $3 million in March, $2 million in April, $1 million in May before becoming cash positive. They would need about $1 billion in cash to get through these month, which would bring their cash position to still reasonably healthy level of $800 million. My guess is that to be conservative, JetBlue needs to get another $500 million loan from somewhere. They have the assets in terms of both JFK/LGA slots and unencumbered aircraft to take out additional loan. It's a matter of whether or not banks are willing to lend in the current environment.

Here is the thing, things will be rough in airline industry as long as a vaccine isn't ready, because people will be afraid to be stuck in tight spaces and economy will not be functioning at 100%. Even if JetBlue is to become cash neutral or positive by next summer, they could still be losing money in Sep/Oct.

In order for JetBlue to avoid furlough and not shrink coming out of this, they'd probably need the additional cash. The loan they are taking out now has a one year time where they need to return the money. so to be safe, they need probably $500 million in cash to avoid having their assets taken away by the creditors. Again, additional loan for JetBlue with more generous terms of repayment would allow them to get through this without entering chapter 11.

But I'd rather be in JetBlue's position right now than a legacy airline. Again, WN is in a great position, which is probably why they are only canceling 50% of their flights thus far. G4 is in a great position. NK/F9 really dependent on how much CARES money they get (given they are clearly cutting cities). AS should be in a decent position. HA seems headed to chapter 11.
 
USAavdork
Posts: 84
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Thu Apr 09, 2020 12:22 am

“Just got word that JetBlue has filed with the USDOT to drop the following cities under a CARES Act exemption. First carrier to file for one, and this is separate from the co-terminal cities it has already announced.

ABQ
BQN
BZN
DFW
IAH
MSP
ORH
PDX
PSE
RNO
SMF”

Don’t know how to upload pics on here or I would.
 
flyby519
Posts: 1581
Joined: Tue Jul 24, 2007 3:31 am

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Thu Apr 09, 2020 12:25 am

USAavdork wrote:
“Just got word that JetBlue has filed with the USDOT to drop the following cities under a CARES Act exemption. First carrier to file for one, and this is separate from the co-terminal cities it has already announced.

ABQ
BQN
BZN
DFW
IAH
MSP
ORH
PDX
PSE
RNO
SMF”

Don’t know how to upload pics on here or I would.


Filing is located here:

https://www.regulations.gov/document?D= ... -0037-0048
 
Brickell305
Posts: 1101
Joined: Sat Jun 24, 2017 2:07 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Thu Apr 09, 2020 1:02 am

USAavdork wrote:
“Just got word that JetBlue has filed with the USDOT to drop the following cities under a CARES Act exemption. First carrier to file for one, and this is separate from the co-terminal cities it has already announced.

ABQ
BQN
BZN
DFW
IAH
MSP
ORH
PDX
PSE
RNO
SMF”

Don’t know how to upload pics on here or I would.

PSE and BQN will be easily approved as both are being closed to commercial traffic. I’d be interested to see if the others are approved as the reasons seem purely financial.
 
tphuang
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Thu Apr 09, 2020 1:24 am

Aise from bzn and the Puerto Rican airports, I don't see why dot should approve any of the other exemptions.
 
cynlb
Posts: 78
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Thu Apr 09, 2020 5:57 pm

As passenger numbers crater, JetBlue slashes flights in Long Beach, L.A.

https://www.lbbusinessjournal.com/as-pa ... beach-l-a/
 
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ChrisNH38
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Thu Apr 09, 2020 10:13 pm

What is the likelihood that JetBlue shelves or at least postpones Europe plans? I’m thinking Airbus’ woes will make that inevitable.
https://my.flightradar24.com/ChrisNH
 
tphuang
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Thu Apr 09, 2020 11:31 pm

so I think it's safe to assume that European plan won't start in first half of 2021 and most likely won't happen in second half either. My guess is that they will downsize their ambitions a little bit, but will at minimum fly to London. I'm sure we will hear more about this in the earnings call.

Given that both DY and VS are likely to disappear from TATL market after this crisis, it's actually not a bad time for them to enter the market right now.

My guess is at some point next year, BA will be only one in the BOS-LON market. A lot easier market for B6 to crack.
 
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aemoreira1981
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Thu Apr 09, 2020 11:35 pm

SoCalFlyer wrote:
tzadik wrote:
tphuang wrote:
I have to agree with trueblew on this one. A lot of your suggestions seem to just turn JetBlue into Spirit. You have to consider what makes money for JetBlue during normal times and why such a methodology would not work here. Your suggestion of turning JetBlue even into a lower end WN just would not work here in NYC or Boston. What has allowed JetBlue to have yield premium over legacy carriers is the product. And they would blow all of that away if they diminish their product in the way that you would suggest. For example, mint is either the most profitable or the second most profitable segment in their system. It would be crazy to drop that to merge with NK. Europe, especially London, is very important for their corporate client base in Boston and New York. It's a market they need to get into. Same reason they fly into Dallas, Atlanta and Minnesota. All markets they loose heavily on.

For what I think they could get from NK.
FLL - They'd easily be the largest carrier at FLL and may also cause WN's complete retreat there, which would give them even more gates. Enough gates to really compete against AA and fully build out their connection to Latin America.
MCO - They'd be about the same size as WN and dominate a lot of these secondary east coast to MCO markets and can get more monopoly pricing in.
LGA - they get at least the 11 slots + whatever DL may need to give up for WS JV + slot exchange with UA. Maybe they can get to 35 slots at LGA. That would be huge.
LAX - Having additional gates there + NK's gates would give them 9 or 10 gates at LAX. That's a lot of gates they can use to build stuff up. They can do like 15x daily with mint to JFK, 6x daily to BOS, 6x daily to FLL, 5x daily to IAD/BWI and so on.
New market - it would not cost them additional money to open up new stations in a lot of the midwest and latin american countries.

All these would rely on some kind of fleet transitioning project. They'd need to figure out what to do with the 2 different brands. Maybe you have some markets, especially to Florida/LAS/MSY, to be more NK like (220 seats A321s, no TV, still snacks and free wifi). That along with the heavy VFR markets probably don't need 32 inch pitch seats and seatback TVs. We will see what JetBlue management really thinks about A220. But I think that's still a major game changer for them.


I can see where you're coming from re: NY/BOS premium services and clientele and I appreciate your input, but while profitable thats a niche market and the model hasn't really expanded beyond that. I've read many an article skeptical about their European aspirations, that's a highly competitive market and I'll be very interested to see how it plays out. Granted I don't know much about the needs of the north east traveller but I do know that the majority of the country cares far more about price than they do standard definition TV screens in the seat back. What you say does check out though as WN is extremely popular with the business crowd due to the flexibilities and frequency they've never really seemed to make a huge impact in NY/BOS area. I just have my doubts if B6 can ever be more than what it is with its current model. Seems as if they've all but given up on intra west coast (I realize yields are lower). NK has a great presence in LAS, BWI and one in PHL as well. Could be interesting if done right, but I have my doubts that the "right" way is the current model and not a trimming of the product for the purposes of being more cost competitive in all sectors of the country.



So, turning Spirit into Jetblue? Interesting, it could work. How much would the cost for something cost? I'd imagine the pay off in the long run would be worth it. Either way I see the Jetblue brand and product surviving this and greatly benefiting in a lot of ways due to this coronavirus mess.


B6 might not get the additional LGA slots other than a few; it would likely have to divest them at a slot-restricted airport, and B6 also currently has exclusive use of the Marine Air Terminal. However, what I could see is acquiring NK for the fleeting, and then canceling the A319neo part of the order in favor of more A320neos, which would be, as the fleet is converted to the B6 standard, used to retire original B6 A320s, which are close to ready for scrap (remember, B6 has arguably the highest-time A320s in the world relative to age). There would also be 30 A321ceo that could serve to expand the Mint fleet. I do not see B6 keeping the A319s if they acquire NK, instead selling the 25 owned frames (or placing them up for lease) and seeking to return the 6 leased frames.

Market-wise, buying NK is probably the best way to expand in FLL, LAX, EWR, AUS, and DTW or ORD...AUS is where there could be Mint added right away once NK A321s are converted to the B6 standard with Mint.

As for the Dania Point facility, that could be used for training, while the headquarters remains at Queens Plaza.
 
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VS4ever
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Fri Apr 10, 2020 3:35 am

tphuang wrote:
so I think it's safe to assume that European plan won't start in first half of 2021 and most likely won't happen in second half either. My guess is that they will downsize their ambitions a little bit, but will at minimum fly to London. I'm sure we will hear more about this in the earnings call.

Given that both DY and VS are likely to disappear from TATL market after this crisis, it's actually not a bad time for them to enter the market right now.

My guess is at some point next year, BA will be only one in the BOS-LON market. A lot easier market for B6 to crack.


DY I am pretty sure are gone, VS maybe? But I doubt and DL won’t want BA to have the London market to themselves, they have a lot of FF in BOS and they will want the route back. It will only be a single daily like It is now (ignoring the previous 2x on VS), but BA won’t have all this their own way.
That feeling when you sit at the end of a runway, brakes are released and the raw power takes over. Now that is a thing of beauty and it never gets old.
 
tphuang
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Fri Apr 10, 2020 1:50 pm

The thing is even B6 gets all of NK's LGA slots through a merger + a good chunk of whatever DL gives up in JV with WS, they would still at most have a little over 30 slots. I really doubt they'd have to give up any slots in a NK merger.

Things seem to have changed a little bit since the conversation started on a merger with NK.

It's possible this interlining with AS/AA can become something greater in a few months or a year when all the airlines become more desperate as they run out of cash.

The conditions of all the domestic airlines look even more dire than a couple of weeks ago. DN recently said that he talked a major US carrier exec who said that if this COVID crisis lasts a few month, they will be 25% smaller coming out of this. If this COVID crisis last over a year, they will be 50% smaller coming out of this. Now, I assume that this is one of the big 3 carriers talking like this, since WN is in a pretty good position. At the same time, DL has told their own employees that they have under $6 billion in cash and that it will last them 90 days at the current burn rate. And even with CARES money, that allows them to last at least 6 months in total if they don't get more loans.

So if airlines are still not seeing many bookings in late summer, they will probably be making decisions on head count. If legacy airlines are going to be 30% smaller in Q2 2021 vs planned Q2 2020, then JetBlue is likely to be at least 10% smaller. That's probably why AA/AS is even interested in a possible partnership with B6. Again, I'm surprised UA didn't make a large effort to court JetBlue here.

So let's say AA comes out of this 30% smaller and AS/B6 comes out of this 10% smaller, what will that look like for each of these airlines?
AS is likely to retreat to PNW and cut a lot of flights from california and to Hawaii.
AA is likely to concentrate on iDFW/CLT/DCA. As far as B6 is concerned, AA is likely to drop all non-hub flights from BOS and cut JFK down to 50 flight station.

In a partnership with AA/AS, I think B6 would likely back off growth at FLL/MCO, drop LGB down to maybe 5x daily and concentrate at BOS/NYC where they can also help service AA/OW ff. If they are normally at over 1000 flights a day, they would need to cut 100 to 150 flights. If they cut LA area airports arrival/departures by 15 flights each, SJU by 10 each, FLL by 10 each and MCO by 10 each, that's almost 100 flights already and they can probably keep BOS at around 170 flights day coming out of this and NYC at about 215 flights a day (160 at JFK, 16 at LGA, 25 at EWR, 15 at HPN/SWF) coming out of this.

If they end up merging with NK, you likely will see much more even cuts around the system and BOS might be 155 flights a day coming out of this and NYC might be at 195 lights a day.
 
Nicknuzzii
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Fri Apr 10, 2020 2:01 pm

Is the interline agreement permanent or just for the current situation?
 
flyby519
Posts: 1581
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Fri Apr 10, 2020 2:39 pm

Nicknuzzii wrote:
Is the interline agreement permanent or just for the current situation?


Temporary, but looking to extend it.
 
Blueknows
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Fri Apr 10, 2020 3:19 pm

 
Blueknows
Posts: 414
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Fri Apr 10, 2020 3:19 pm

They are using the interline to cancel service to multiple airports from APRIL-June.
 
dtremit
Posts: 164
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Fri Apr 10, 2020 5:37 pm

aemoreira1981 wrote:
B6 might not get the additional LGA slots other than a few; it would likely have to divest them at a slot-restricted airport, and B6 also currently has exclusive use of the Marine Air Terminal. However, what I could see is acquiring NK for the fleeting, and then canceling the A319neo part of the order in favor of more A320neos, which would be, as the fleet is converted to the B6 standard, used to retire original B6 A320s, which are close to ready for scrap (remember, B6 has arguably the highest-time A320s in the world relative to age). There would also be 30 A321ceo that could serve to expand the Mint fleet. I do not see B6 keeping the A319s if they acquire NK, instead selling the 25 owned frames (or placing them up for lease) and seeking to return the 6 leased frames.

Market-wise, buying NK is probably the best way to expand in FLL, LAX, EWR, AUS, and DTW or ORD...AUS is where there could be Mint added right away once NK A321s are converted to the B6 standard with Mint.


I could see a B6 purchase of NK unfolding somewhat similarly to WN's purchase of FL, given the current climate. As you suggest, converting NK's NEO order and having the planes delivered in B6 spec is a no-brainer, as is converting their 320s.

However, it might also make sense to continue operating NK's planes under the NK brand until they're either retired or converted; it would keep costs lower during the hardest months, and prevent any brand damage from offering NK product under a B6 brand. Higher yield routes could transition to B6 branding alongside the new or reconfigured planes, and lower yield B6 routes currently canceled or reduced could come back temporarily as NK when they're resumed.
 
Brickell305
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Fri Apr 10, 2020 5:44 pm

dtremit wrote:
aemoreira1981 wrote:
B6 might not get the additional LGA slots other than a few; it would likely have to divest them at a slot-restricted airport, and B6 also currently has exclusive use of the Marine Air Terminal. However, what I could see is acquiring NK for the fleeting, and then canceling the A319neo part of the order in favor of more A320neos, which would be, as the fleet is converted to the B6 standard, used to retire original B6 A320s, which are close to ready for scrap (remember, B6 has arguably the highest-time A320s in the world relative to age). There would also be 30 A321ceo that could serve to expand the Mint fleet. I do not see B6 keeping the A319s if they acquire NK, instead selling the 25 owned frames (or placing them up for lease) and seeking to return the 6 leased frames.

Market-wise, buying NK is probably the best way to expand in FLL, LAX, EWR, AUS, and DTW or ORD...AUS is where there could be Mint added right away once NK A321s are converted to the B6 standard with Mint.


I could see a B6 purchase of NK unfolding somewhat similarly to WN's purchase of FL, given the current climate. As you suggest, converting NK's NEO order and having the planes delivered in B6 spec is a no-brainer, as is converting their 320s.

However, it might also make sense to continue operating NK's planes under the NK brand until they're either retired or converted; it would keep costs lower during the hardest months, and prevent any brand damage from offering NK product under a B6 brand. Higher yield routes could transition to B6 branding alongside the new or reconfigured planes, and lower yield B6 routes currently canceled or reduced could come back temporarily as NK when they're resumed.

B6 (as are all airlines) is currently borrowing cash just to remain in existence. Where exactly would it get money to buy another airline and finance the cost of integrating it?
 
flyby519
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Fri Apr 10, 2020 5:52 pm

Brickell305 wrote:
dtremit wrote:
aemoreira1981 wrote:
B6 might not get the additional LGA slots other than a few; it would likely have to divest them at a slot-restricted airport, and B6 also currently has exclusive use of the Marine Air Terminal. However, what I could see is acquiring NK for the fleeting, and then canceling the A319neo part of the order in favor of more A320neos, which would be, as the fleet is converted to the B6 standard, used to retire original B6 A320s, which are close to ready for scrap (remember, B6 has arguably the highest-time A320s in the world relative to age). There would also be 30 A321ceo that could serve to expand the Mint fleet. I do not see B6 keeping the A319s if they acquire NK, instead selling the 25 owned frames (or placing them up for lease) and seeking to return the 6 leased frames.

Market-wise, buying NK is probably the best way to expand in FLL, LAX, EWR, AUS, and DTW or ORD...AUS is where there could be Mint added right away once NK A321s are converted to the B6 standard with Mint.


I could see a B6 purchase of NK unfolding somewhat similarly to WN's purchase of FL, given the current climate. As you suggest, converting NK's NEO order and having the planes delivered in B6 spec is a no-brainer, as is converting their 320s.

However, it might also make sense to continue operating NK's planes under the NK brand until they're either retired or converted; it would keep costs lower during the hardest months, and prevent any brand damage from offering NK product under a B6 brand. Higher yield routes could transition to B6 branding alongside the new or reconfigured planes, and lower yield B6 routes currently canceled or reduced could come back temporarily as NK when they're resumed.

B6 (as are all airlines) is currently borrowing cash just to remain in existence. Where exactly would it get money to buy another airline and finance the cost of integrating it?


How much actual cash does a typical merger really cost? Aren’t they usually all stock transactions (as far as the merger transaction goes, I know it costs money to retrofit planes and make changes after the fact)?
 
MAH4546
Posts: 26288
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Fri Apr 10, 2020 5:59 pm

dtremit wrote:
aemoreira1981 wrote:
B6 might not get the additional LGA slots other than a few; it would likely have to divest them at a slot-restricted airport, and B6 also currently has exclusive use of the Marine Air Terminal. However, what I could see is acquiring NK for the fleeting, and then canceling the A319neo part of the order in favor of more A320neos, which would be, as the fleet is converted to the B6 standard, used to retire original B6 A320s, which are close to ready for scrap (remember, B6 has arguably the highest-time A320s in the world relative to age). There would also be 30 A321ceo that could serve to expand the Mint fleet. I do not see B6 keeping the A319s if they acquire NK, instead selling the 25 owned frames (or placing them up for lease) and seeking to return the 6 leased frames.

Market-wise, buying NK is probably the best way to expand in FLL, LAX, EWR, AUS, and DTW or ORD...AUS is where there could be Mint added right away once NK A321s are converted to the B6 standard with Mint.


I could see a B6 purchase of NK unfolding somewhat similarly to WN's purchase of FL, given the current climate. As you suggest, converting NK's NEO order and having the planes delivered in B6 spec is a no-brainer, as is converting their 320s.

However, it might also make sense to continue operating NK's planes under the NK brand until they're either retired or converted; it would keep costs lower during the hardest months, and prevent any brand damage from offering NK product under a B6 brand. Higher yield routes could transition to B6 branding alongside the new or reconfigured planes, and lower yield B6 routes currently canceled or reduced could come back temporarily as NK when they're resumed.


Spirit and JetBlue are not merging. And if they did, Spiirt is the buyer, not JetBlue. Spirit is in far better shape than JetBlue.
a.
 
tphuang
Posts: 5478
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Fri Apr 10, 2020 6:18 pm

MAH4546 wrote:
dtremit wrote:
aemoreira1981 wrote:
B6 might not get the additional LGA slots other than a few; it would likely have to divest them at a slot-restricted airport, and B6 also currently has exclusive use of the Marine Air Terminal. However, what I could see is acquiring NK for the fleeting, and then canceling the A319neo part of the order in favor of more A320neos, which would be, as the fleet is converted to the B6 standard, used to retire original B6 A320s, which are close to ready for scrap (remember, B6 has arguably the highest-time A320s in the world relative to age). There would also be 30 A321ceo that could serve to expand the Mint fleet. I do not see B6 keeping the A319s if they acquire NK, instead selling the 25 owned frames (or placing them up for lease) and seeking to return the 6 leased frames.

Market-wise, buying NK is probably the best way to expand in FLL, LAX, EWR, AUS, and DTW or ORD...AUS is where there could be Mint added right away once NK A321s are converted to the B6 standard with Mint.


I could see a B6 purchase of NK unfolding somewhat similarly to WN's purchase of FL, given the current climate. As you suggest, converting NK's NEO order and having the planes delivered in B6 spec is a no-brainer, as is converting their 320s.

However, it might also make sense to continue operating NK's planes under the NK brand until they're either retired or converted; it would keep costs lower during the hardest months, and prevent any brand damage from offering NK product under a B6 brand. Higher yield routes could transition to B6 branding alongside the new or reconfigured planes, and lower yield B6 routes currently canceled or reduced could come back temporarily as NK when they're resumed.


Spirit and JetBlue are not merging. And if they did, Spiirt is the buyer, not JetBlue. Spirit is in far better shape than JetBlue.


JBLU is almost 3 times the market cap of SAVE. And in terms of cash on hand, they have about the same amount of time before running out of money. What evidence do you have spirit is in far better shape than JetBlue?

Also for the original question, there are always closing costs associated with M&A. Just thinking about all the legal fees.
 
santi319
Posts: 1059
Joined: Thu Dec 29, 2005 3:24 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Fri Apr 10, 2020 6:34 pm

MAH4546 wrote:
dtremit wrote:
aemoreira1981 wrote:
B6 might not get the additional LGA slots other than a few; it would likely have to divest them at a slot-restricted airport, and B6 also currently has exclusive use of the Marine Air Terminal. However, what I could see is acquiring NK for the fleeting, and then canceling the A319neo part of the order in favor of more A320neos, which would be, as the fleet is converted to the B6 standard, used to retire original B6 A320s, which are close to ready for scrap (remember, B6 has arguably the highest-time A320s in the world relative to age). There would also be 30 A321ceo that could serve to expand the Mint fleet. I do not see B6 keeping the A319s if they acquire NK, instead selling the 25 owned frames (or placing them up for lease) and seeking to return the 6 leased frames.

Market-wise, buying NK is probably the best way to expand in FLL, LAX, EWR, AUS, and DTW or ORD...AUS is where there could be Mint added right away once NK A321s are converted to the B6 standard with Mint.


I could see a B6 purchase of NK unfolding somewhat similarly to WN's purchase of FL, given the current climate. As you suggest, converting NK's NEO order and having the planes delivered in B6 spec is a no-brainer, as is converting their 320s.

However, it might also make sense to continue operating NK's planes under the NK brand until they're either retired or converted; it would keep costs lower during the hardest months, and prevent any brand damage from offering NK product under a B6 brand. Higher yield routes could transition to B6 branding alongside the new or reconfigured planes, and lower yield B6 routes currently canceled or reduced could come back temporarily as NK when they're resumed.


Spirit and JetBlue are not merging. And if they did, Spiirt is the buyer, not JetBlue. Spirit is in far better shape than JetBlue.


What? Jetblue is buying everyone! DY, MT, NK and AS and London is imminent!!! Get it together mate!
 
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EA CO AS
Posts: 15777
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Fri Apr 10, 2020 6:46 pm

tphuang wrote:
AS is likely to retreat to PNW and cut a lot of flights from california and to Hawaii.


Nope. There are some strategic opportunities being developed; that's all I'll say at this point.
"In this present crisis, government is not the solution to our problem - government IS the problem." - Ronald Reagan

Comments made here are my own and are not intended to represent the official position of Alaska Air Group
 
tphuang
Posts: 5478
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Fri Apr 10, 2020 6:53 pm

santi319 wrote:
MAH4546 wrote:
dtremit wrote:

I could see a B6 purchase of NK unfolding somewhat similarly to WN's purchase of FL, given the current climate. As you suggest, converting NK's NEO order and having the planes delivered in B6 spec is a no-brainer, as is converting their 320s.

However, it might also make sense to continue operating NK's planes under the NK brand until they're either retired or converted; it would keep costs lower during the hardest months, and prevent any brand damage from offering NK product under a B6 brand. Higher yield routes could transition to B6 branding alongside the new or reconfigured planes, and lower yield B6 routes currently canceled or reduced could come back temporarily as NK when they're resumed.


Spirit and JetBlue are not merging. And if they did, Spiirt is the buyer, not JetBlue. Spirit is in far better shape than JetBlue.


What? Jetblue is buying everyone! DY, MT, NK and AS and London is imminent!!! Get it together mate!

Are you going to apologize when JetBlue flies to London?

And has anyone in this thread said JetBlue is buying anyone other than nk and ha? Stop making stuff up.
 
tphuang
Posts: 5478
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Fri Apr 10, 2020 6:55 pm

EA CO AS wrote:
tphuang wrote:
AS is likely to retreat to PNW and cut a lot of flights from california and to Hawaii.


Nope. There are some strategic opportunities being developed; that's all I'll say at this point.

Humor me, if Alaska is smaller coming out of this, which at this point looks quite likely, where else does it make sense for them to cut?
 
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sunking737
Posts: 1651
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Fri Apr 10, 2020 7:53 pm

How does applying for a loan to stay in business turn into a B6 buying NK??
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