Moderators: jsumali2, richierich, ua900, PanAm_DC10, hOMSaR

 
tphuang
Posts: 6169
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Mon Apr 20, 2020 11:42 am

NYC COVID cases are declining now. We are past the peak here, even though things are still terrible. By mid May when these flights start again, things will be better here in NY/NJ area. PR/DR/Jamaica are not going to lock out continental USA forever. There is a lot of people who didn't visit home for Easter who need to see their relatives. Before the lockdown started, I saw JFK-GEO to have some of their most filled seatmaps. I'd imagine JFK-GEO/GUA do pretty well when they start in November.

Just looking at the recent updates:
DL is gone from JFK-KIN until Christmas. I doubt they are coming back after that. So it will just be BW 1x daily as competition here.
F9 has exited EWR-STI/SDQ. Nk exited EWR-STI/SDQ a while back. So just UA as competition out of EWR.
UA is out of EWR-STI/SDQ until June. My guess is that they will extend this until July given May/June will apparently both see 90% cuts. So it will most likely just be DL 1x daily to these places out of JFK as competition.

One part that I noticed from OAG thread that seems unbelievable is that WN is still operating around 7 filghts a day out of LGB. Amazing stuff going on. WN can have all the LGB slots they want after this. I doubt JetBlue will be too interested in sticking around there in this environment.

Also, I see B6 is operating 1x weekly LGB-BZN now, assuming to comply with CARES act.
 
united75x
Posts: 26
Joined: Sat Feb 10, 2007 2:01 am

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Mon Apr 20, 2020 11:47 am

jfklganyc wrote:
The island VFR flights do well for them

They fly empty planes down and 100 plus people back in the current environment.

Where else are you going to get 100 people nowadays on a plane?

This stuff will return in a big way before domestic travel



Most service to the Caribbean has been suspended. Looking at flight loads over he past few days, the DR has a bit over a 100 people coming from SDQ but everything else left in the Caribbean which is mainly SJU has less than a 100 people on each flight.
 
USAavdork
Posts: 90
Joined: Sat Mar 11, 2017 7:35 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Mon Apr 20, 2020 1:37 pm

Sorry for the poor choice in wording. What I meant to say was if B6 doesn’t reopen HDN, could they loose out on the CARES Act money? It’s a requirement to reopen stations that they served prior to March 1 for the 2020 Winter season.
 
BunkerF16
Posts: 9
Joined: Tue Oct 02, 2018 2:54 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Mon Apr 20, 2020 3:12 pm

USAavdork wrote:
Sorry for the poor choice in wording. What I meant to say was if B6 doesn’t reopen HDN, could they loose out on the CARES Act money? It’s a requirement to reopen stations that they served prior to March 1 for the 2020 Winter season.



HDN was only winter season service anyways? The government isn't going to require JB to serve them all year long when that was never their network plan to begin with. I can see them opening that service back up in the winter of 2020 for the next ski season.
 
USAavdork
Posts: 90
Joined: Sat Mar 11, 2017 7:35 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Mon Apr 20, 2020 3:35 pm

BunkerF16: JetBlue has the choice- go based on summer 2019 schedules or winter 2020 ending February 29. JetBlue chose winter 2020. BZN had to return and PSP (which was winter only) had to return. So why wouldn’t HDN?
 
tphuang
Posts: 6169
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Mon Apr 20, 2020 3:45 pm

USAavdork wrote:
BunkerF16: JetBlue has the choice- go based on summer 2019 schedules or winter 2020 ending February 29. JetBlue chose winter 2020. BZN had to return and PSP (which was winter only) had to return. So why wouldn’t HDN?

LGB-BZN operates during summer time. PSP operated until late May last year.
 
USAavdork
Posts: 90
Joined: Sat Mar 11, 2017 7:35 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Mon Apr 20, 2020 4:11 pm

tphuang: LGB-BZN also operates in winter as well to LGB. Originally it was started as winter seasonal but then they extended to add summer seasonal as well as keeping winter.
I respect all your posts and love all your analysis you post so please don’t take this the wrong way. I just don’t know any other way to word it..... I’m not sure what your mentioned dates of PSP has to do with what
I’m talking about.

JetBlue chose to use winter 2020. My understanding is anything that operates during winter 2020 and was still operational before March 1, 2020 is required to remain open until September. HDN was operational so I’m trying to figure out why it wouldn’t be required to reopen- just like PSP. It doesn’t have to do with what was supposed to continue after March 1- it’s anything operating before March 1.
 
tphuang
Posts: 6169
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Mon Apr 20, 2020 4:44 pm

Sorry, I haven't read the notice. I expected JetBlue to use summer 2019, which would've required BZN to continue to be operated (but not HDN). I haven't seen PSP returning either. Given they added back all the other exemption rejections, I would assume HDN or PSP would be added back if it's required. They certainly need the money.
 
USAavdork
Posts: 90
Joined: Sat Mar 11, 2017 7:35 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Mon Apr 20, 2020 4:53 pm

tphuang:

Don’t worry- a ton of us are baffled why B6 chose to use winter 2020.

So here’s what they done so far.

LGB-BZN added back 1x weekly Sundays

JFK-PSP-LGB added Wed/Fri/Sun

What they should have done to minimalism costs was LGB-HDN-BZN. Kills 2 birds with 1 stone.

Also, and more disappointing, the only way to pull up the PSP-LGB portion is if you try to book JFK-LGB Wed/Fri/Sun... it shows a 1 stop and when you click on the details it shows that it stops in PSP. Seems silly to add the PSP-LGB tag and not sell it. All your other necessities to operate a flight are there, why not bring in a few extra dollars?
 
NASBWI
Posts: 982
Joined: Fri Feb 18, 2005 1:12 am

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Mon Apr 20, 2020 9:52 pm

USAavdork: I have a strong feeling that the PSP-LGB flight may well be a scheduled fuel stop, since that route has never been in B6’s schedule. Winds aloft might be predicted to be strong. Though usually, scheduled stops happen in SLC or LAS. Why PSP is a little strange to me, but I’ll go with it for now ;).
Fierce, Fabulous, and Flawless ;)
 
MAH4546
Posts: 26526
Joined: Wed Jan 24, 2001 1:44 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Mon Apr 20, 2020 10:02 pm

[*]
USAavdork wrote:
BunkerF16: JetBlue has the choice- go based on summer 2019 schedules or winter 2020 ending February 29. JetBlue chose winter 2020. BZN had to return and PSP (which was winter only) had to return. So why wouldn’t HDN?


JetBlue never intended to serve HDN this summer and there is no requirement for it to serve HDN this summer. It also does not need to resume it in winter, as CARES does not apply past September 30.
a.
 
USAavdork
Posts: 90
Joined: Sat Mar 11, 2017 7:35 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Mon Apr 20, 2020 10:30 pm

MAH4546:

If that were the case then PSP wouldn’t have to be reopened like it is. Everyone is missing the point....

The government let the airline choose with schedule they wanted to base it off. Summer 2019 or Winter 2020. JetBlue chose winter 2020. So... anything flying up to March 1, during winter 2020, has to keep going until September. It doesn’t have anything to do with whether they intended to operate it in summer. They flew it winter 2020.
 
caribny
Posts: 578
Joined: Sat Mar 16, 2019 1:47 am

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Tue Apr 21, 2020 3:34 am

tphuang wrote:
It definitely bodes well for their cash position if they are getting 25% LF operating 15% of their regular flights vs 10% LF operating 30% of their regular flights. It probably also helps that other airlines have slashed a lot out of both BOS/NYC. There is a lot of pent up demand i think for the VFR crowd to go to DR/PR/KIN this summer. Once the travel restrictions get lifted, I would imagine those flights will do better than the domestic ones. By summer time, airlines should have a good sense of what the Q4 demand looks like. I wonder if they will apply for the loans program under CARES. I think they probably will.

I think the most optimistic scenario for JetBlue would require the following:
- quick recovery on domestic leisure + VFR out
- COVID get under control in NYC/BOS area
- rival airlines keep low capacity at NYC
- rival airlines cut a lot of stuff at BOS
- TATL/TPAC travel remains non-existent which would drive any international leisure demand to the islands.



As you may know Jamaica/DR are now locked down. DR now has almost 5,000 cases with a 5% mortality rate. Jamaica is now seeing a hike in cases (more than doubling in less than a week). Will these islands open up this summer? We will see but I wouldn't bet on it. This same VFR market is responsible for most of the transmission in the Caribbean, with the NY are being an epicenter. This disease has spread beyond the tourism sector, now entering the industrial/service sectors.

The VFR population in NYC itself has been very impacted by the disease. Over representation in the healthcare sector and mass transit, as well as in the distribution trades. Then we can add overcrowding among the poorer segments of these populations. Many will be afraid to travel down to see their older relatives and infect them. I suspect the VFR market will be subpar until Xmas.

As to leisure travel. Again many of these islands are terrified of the cost that this brings. They aren't going to open up until Cuomo decides that NY can be opened up. They aren't going to open up just because Trump tells Floridians to go to the beach. After all when they have succeeded in getting PPEs and test kits rapacious US officials have often stolen them. Yes STOLEN because these supplies were bought and paid for, not donations!
 
BunkerF16
Posts: 9
Joined: Tue Oct 02, 2018 2:54 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Tue Apr 21, 2020 11:59 am

USAavdork wrote:
BunkerF16: JetBlue has the choice- go based on summer 2019 schedules or winter 2020 ending February 29. JetBlue chose winter 2020. BZN had to return and PSP (which was winter only) had to return. So why wouldn’t HDN?


In the 2 years B6 has operated to HDN, it's never flown during the summer months. There's no way they'd be required to operate there during the summer months no matter which season they use to replicate their route structure for the purposes of the financial bailout. Seasonality would be taken into consideration either way.
 
USAavdork
Posts: 90
Joined: Sat Mar 11, 2017 7:35 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Tue Apr 21, 2020 12:13 pm

BunkerF16:

Did you not see my post above to others? I am well aware HDN has only been flown in winter. It doesn’t matter in this case. JetBlue chose to use winter (January- March) 2020 schedules and so the government said any city that was open during that winter time frame- WHETHER OR NOT IT NORMALLY STAYS OPENS FOR SUMMER- must remain open until September 31 because you are taking payroll grant money and loans.

PSP never operated in summer and never intended to. But they’re forced to reopen it 3x weekly and it’s been loaded for sale next week through September.

Seasonality IS NOT taken into consideration for B6- they were already denied all their exemption requests including PSP.
 
BunkerF16
Posts: 9
Joined: Tue Oct 02, 2018 2:54 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Tue Apr 21, 2020 1:09 pm

USAavdork wrote:
BunkerF16:

Did you not see my post above to others? I am well aware HDN has only been flown in winter. It doesn’t matter in this case. JetBlue chose to use winter (January- March) 2020 schedules and so the government said any city that was open during that winter time frame- WHETHER OR NOT IT NORMALLY STAYS OPENS FOR SUMMER- must remain open until September 31 because you are taking payroll grant money and loans.

PSP never operated in summer and never intended to. But they’re forced to reopen it 3x weekly and it’s been loaded for sale next week through September.

Seasonality IS NOT taken into consideration for B6- they were already denied all their exemption requests including PSP.


Their denials had nothing to do with seasonality. B6 tried to use extremely low LF as a reason to gain these exemptions. Wanna bet a whiskey that JB doesn't fly to HDN this summer?
 
tphuang
Posts: 6169
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Tue Apr 21, 2020 1:33 pm

caribny wrote:
tphuang wrote:
It definitely bodes well for their cash position if they are getting 25% LF operating 15% of their regular flights vs 10% LF operating 30% of their regular flights. It probably also helps that other airlines have slashed a lot out of both BOS/NYC. There is a lot of pent up demand i think for the VFR crowd to go to DR/PR/KIN this summer. Once the travel restrictions get lifted, I would imagine those flights will do better than the domestic ones. By summer time, airlines should have a good sense of what the Q4 demand looks like. I wonder if they will apply for the loans program under CARES. I think they probably will.

I think the most optimistic scenario for JetBlue would require the following:
- quick recovery on domestic leisure + VFR out
- COVID get under control in NYC/BOS area
- rival airlines keep low capacity at NYC
- rival airlines cut a lot of stuff at BOS
- TATL/TPAC travel remains non-existent which would drive any international leisure demand to the islands.



As you may know Jamaica/DR are now locked down. DR now has almost 5,000 cases with a 5% mortality rate. Jamaica is now seeing a hike in cases (more than doubling in less than a week). Will these islands open up this summer? We will see but I wouldn't bet on it. This same VFR market is responsible for most of the transmission in the Caribbean, with the NY are being an epicenter. This disease has spread beyond the tourism sector, now entering the industrial/service sectors.

The VFR population in NYC itself has been very impacted by the disease. Over representation in the healthcare sector and mass transit, as well as in the distribution trades. Then we can add overcrowding among the poorer segments of these populations. Many will be afraid to travel down to see their older relatives and infect them. I suspect the VFR market will be subpar until Xmas.

As to leisure travel. Again many of these islands are terrified of the cost that this brings. They aren't going to open up until Cuomo decides that NY can be opened up. They aren't going to open up just because Trump tells Floridians to go to the beach. After all when they have succeeded in getting PPEs and test kits rapacious US officials have often stolen them. Yes STOLEN because these supplies were bought and paid for, not donations!


Well the thing is that cases in New York is definitely slowing down. We are past the peak period. And i think by mid May, Cuomo will open up New York again for non-essential business although I'm sure people will still have to be cautious. And that will likely lead to re-opening NJ, CT and possibly other Northeastern states. The worst hit area in New York are actually not the heavily DR/PR populated areas. It's in the area around Elmhurst that have some of the poorest minority migrant groups. And the front line health care sector is over represented by Filipinos nurses, not necessarily Dominicans. We will see what happens, I lived in the heights up until 10 months ago. It seemed to me there was frequent travel back and forth in the community and many people just have homes in both places. They have businesses back in DR. They are not necessarily just visiting older relative.

Keep in mind, traffic doesn't need to revert to 100% or even 70%. B6 was running 10 flights a day to STI and SDQ from JFK/EWR with over all of those flights operated by A321s. They could go with 3 flights of A320s to both STI and SDQ and probably get higher LF than domestic routes (which had been seeing 10% LF for a few weeks).

I agreed leisure travel will come back a little slower. I'm just referring to flights from NYC to PR/DR/KIN, which are the bread and butter of JetBlue's island flying.

I also can't imagine these islands locking themselves down for more than a couple of months since a lot of them really depends economically on travel with US.
 
USAavdork
Posts: 90
Joined: Sat Mar 11, 2017 7:35 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Tue Apr 21, 2020 1:50 pm

BunkerF16:

My whole point of the post was to ask why JetBlue feels they have to restart PSP but not HDN? You’ve failed to address it. You also failed to address my comments about PSP. What makes that city any different than HDN? Both only operate in winter and PSP into late April.


Your the one who brought “seasonality needs to be taken into consideration.” The government obviously disagrees with you since they denied the request to keep PSP closed and is forcing JetBlue to reopen PSP next week.
 
Brickell305
Posts: 1302
Joined: Sat Jun 24, 2017 2:07 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Tue Apr 21, 2020 3:44 pm

tphuang wrote:
caribny wrote:
tphuang wrote:
It definitely bodes well for their cash position if they are getting 25% LF operating 15% of their regular flights vs 10% LF operating 30% of their regular flights. It probably also helps that other airlines have slashed a lot out of both BOS/NYC. There is a lot of pent up demand i think for the VFR crowd to go to DR/PR/KIN this summer. Once the travel restrictions get lifted, I would imagine those flights will do better than the domestic ones. By summer time, airlines should have a good sense of what the Q4 demand looks like. I wonder if they will apply for the loans program under CARES. I think they probably will.

I think the most optimistic scenario for JetBlue would require the following:
- quick recovery on domestic leisure + VFR out
- COVID get under control in NYC/BOS area
- rival airlines keep low capacity at NYC
- rival airlines cut a lot of stuff at BOS
- TATL/TPAC travel remains non-existent which would drive any international leisure demand to the islands.



As you may know Jamaica/DR are now locked down. DR now has almost 5,000 cases with a 5% mortality rate. Jamaica is now seeing a hike in cases (more than doubling in less than a week). Will these islands open up this summer? We will see but I wouldn't bet on it. This same VFR market is responsible for most of the transmission in the Caribbean, with the NY are being an epicenter. This disease has spread beyond the tourism sector, now entering the industrial/service sectors.

The VFR population in NYC itself has been very impacted by the disease. Over representation in the healthcare sector and mass transit, as well as in the distribution trades. Then we can add overcrowding among the poorer segments of these populations. Many will be afraid to travel down to see their older relatives and infect them. I suspect the VFR market will be subpar until Xmas.

As to leisure travel. Again many of these islands are terrified of the cost that this brings. They aren't going to open up until Cuomo decides that NY can be opened up. They aren't going to open up just because Trump tells Floridians to go to the beach. After all when they have succeeded in getting PPEs and test kits rapacious US officials have often stolen them. Yes STOLEN because these supplies were bought and paid for, not donations!


Well the thing is that cases in New York is definitely slowing down. We are past the peak period. And i think by mid May, Cuomo will open up New York again for non-essential business although I'm sure people will still have to be cautious. And that will likely lead to re-opening NJ, CT and possibly other Northeastern states. The worst hit area in New York are actually not the heavily DR/PR populated areas. It's in the area around Elmhurst that have some of the poorest minority migrant groups. And the front line health care sector is over represented by Filipinos nurses, not necessarily Dominicans. We will see what happens, I lived in the heights up until 10 months ago. It seemed to me there was frequent travel back and forth in the community and many people just have homes in both places. They have businesses back in DR. They are not necessarily just visiting older relative.

Keep in mind, traffic doesn't need to revert to 100% or even 70%. B6 was running 10 flights a day to STI and SDQ from JFK/EWR with over all of those flights operated by A321s. They could go with 3 flights of A320s to both STI and SDQ and probably get higher LF than domestic routes (which had been seeing 10% LF for a few weeks).

I agreed leisure travel will come back a little slower. I'm just referring to flights from NYC to PR/DR/KIN, which are the bread and butter of JetBlue's island flying.

I also can't imagine these islands locking themselves down for more than a couple of months since a lot of them really depends economically on travel with US.

Well Jamaica just announced an extension of its border closure until May 31 and obviously may extend it if necessary. http://www.jamaicaobserver.com/latestne ... ofile=1228

Specifically to KIN and the rest of the English speaking Caribbean (as I am much more familiar with that), yes, the VFR market has been economically impacted. It's already being reflected in the Caribbean with a sharp decline in remittances. Also, don't underestimate how much of VFR travel is event related. In an environment where people can't hold weddings, funerals, large gatherings and local festivals have been canceled or postponed (Jamaica's carnival was to have been held this past Sunday in fact), that in and of itself kills lots of traffic. No one is traveling to their home island to be quarantined for two weeks either. And in terms of outbound traffic from those places, they are all in economic distress at the moment as their primary industries have all been decimated whether its tourism in Jamaica or oil in Trinidad and Tobago.
 
tphuang
Posts: 6169
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Tue Apr 21, 2020 4:50 pm

Alright, RH got interviewed on CNBC
- JetBlue April Traffic down 90%
- hit the bottom, bumping along the bottom, don't really see much recovery
- April flying 10 to 15% of typical schedule. Similar for May. Probably into June.
- should finalize the payroll grant today
- haven't made decision on loans yet. Application needs to be in April 30th. They will put in application. Will determine later if they actually need it
- just focused on getting through this right now (not a surprise)
- cleaning & sterilization guidelines for airlines have changed. investment in air filters.
- believes drive before fly, domestic before international, close by international before long distance international
- no plan to defer A220 or A321NEO yet.
- Doesn't plan to ramp back up until Q3.
 
caribny
Posts: 578
Joined: Sat Mar 16, 2019 1:47 am

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Wed Apr 22, 2020 10:23 pm

tphuang wrote:
e thing is that cases in New York is definitely slowing down. We are past the peak period. And i think by mid May, Cuomo will open up New York again for non-essential business although I'm sure people will still have to be cautious. And that will likely lead to re-opening NJ, CT and possibly other Northeastern states. The worst hit area in New York are actually not the heavily DR/PR populated areas. It's in the area around Elmhurst that have some of the poorest minority migrant groups. And the front line health care sector is over represented by Filipinos nurses, not necessarily Dominicans. We will see what happens, I lived in the heights up until 10 months ago. It seemed to me there was frequent travel back and forth in the community and many people just have homes in both places. They have businesses back in DR. They are not necessarily just visiting older relative.

Keep in mind, traffic doesn't need to revert to 100% or even 70%. B6 was running 10 flights a day to STI and SDQ from JFK/EWR with over all of those flights operated by A321s. They could go with 3 flights of A320s to both STI and SDQ and probably get higher LF than domestic routes (which had been seeing 10% LF for a few weeks).

I agreed leisure travel will come back a little slower. I'm just referring to flights from NYC to PR/DR/KIN, which are the bread and butter of JetBlue's island flying.

I also can't imagine these islands locking themselves down for more than a couple of months since a lot of them really depends economically on travel with US.


The heaviest hit area in Manhattan is in the Dominican neighborhoods, and this also extends to the west/south Bronx, which has large Dominican populations. 1/3 of the deaths are Hispanic and these aren't all Mexicans. Dominicans and PRs are the two largest Latin groups in NYC. We hear all about the hospital workers and cheer for them. But guess who we ignore. All of those who clean up these rooms, who perform home attendant services, who work in supermarkets, and in distribution. Among them are loads of Dominicans. They dont get PPEs, and so are heavily exposed to infection.

DR/PR account for almost 3/4 of the infections in the Caribbean (defined to include Belize and the Guyanas and The Bahamas). Given that most of the infections in the Caribbean originated from its US based VFR I will suggest to you that Dominicans in NYC are a heavily impacted group.

I also dont think that it will be "business as usual" in NYC next month. The entertainment sector will still be closed. NYC will not be an attractive place for people to visit, impacting the 300k people who work in tourism in that city. Whether the subways will be back to normal is anyone's guess. And hiding behind face masks, and dealing the end of enhanced unemployment payments ($3-4k monthly receipts being cut by more than 50%, drowning many in financial distress). Will the VFR be in a mood to return home? Remember that when they arrive their relative's second question (after "how are you?") is "what did you bring?"

I do agree that the DR, PR and maybe Jamaica will be the first back, given market dynamics. The question is whether the governments of these islands will be in the mood to reopen the borders, and whether "shelter in place" will stop. Not sure how many in the VFR want to visit if they are in "de facto quarantine."

What I do know is that last summer there were around 40 daily flights to the DR out of JFK/EWR. This summer will be a small fraction of that. Assuming that NYC and the DR reopen enough to encourage people to travel. The last thing that people will do is risk booking a trip if the probability exists that some island might go on lockdown is the virus reasserts itself.
 
caribny
Posts: 578
Joined: Sat Mar 16, 2019 1:47 am

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Wed Apr 22, 2020 10:42 pm

In addition to events being canceled in Jamaica ANU and BGI have also canceled their summer festivities, and I expect Grenada to shortly do the same. In addition much of the VFR is inbound, this being especially true in the summer. Dont see legions of Caribbean people coming to see their relatives in NYC or to go shopping in FL or to take their kids to Disneyland. BW is already factoring in mass cancelations among those who planned to travel in the summer.
 
User avatar
chepos
Posts: 7279
Joined: Sat Dec 02, 2000 9:40 am

JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Wed Apr 22, 2020 10:53 pm

caribny wrote:
tphuang wrote:
e thing is that cases in New York is definitely slowing down. We are past the peak period. And i think by mid May, Cuomo will open up New York again for non-essential business although I'm sure people will still have to be cautious. And that will likely lead to re-opening NJ, CT and possibly other Northeastern states. The worst hit area in New York are actually not the heavily DR/PR populated areas. It's in the area around Elmhurst that have some of the poorest minority migrant groups. And the front line health care sector is over represented by Filipinos nurses, not necessarily Dominicans. We will see what happens, I lived in the heights up until 10 months ago. It seemed to me there was frequent travel back and forth in the community and many people just have homes in both places. They have businesses back in DR. They are not necessarily just visiting older relative.

Keep in mind, traffic doesn't need to revert to 100% or even 70%. B6 was running 10 flights a day to STI and SDQ from JFK/EWR with over all of those flights operated by A321s. They could go with 3 flights of A320s to both STI and SDQ and probably get higher LF than domestic routes (which had been seeing 10% LF for a few weeks).

I agreed leisure travel will come back a little slower. I'm just referring to flights from NYC to PR/DR/KIN, which are the bread and butter of JetBlue's island flying.

I also can't imagine these islands locking themselves down for more than a couple of months since a lot of them really depends economically on travel with US.


The heaviest hit area in Manhattan is in the Dominican neighborhoods, and this also extends to the west/south Bronx, which has large Dominican populations. 1/3 of the deaths are Hispanic and these aren't all Mexicans. Dominicans and PRs are the two largest Latin groups in NYC. We hear all about the hospital workers and cheer for them. But guess who we ignore. All of those who clean up these rooms, who perform home attendant services, who work in supermarkets, and in distribution. Among them are loads of Dominicans. They dont get PPEs, and so are heavily exposed to infection.

DR/PR account for almost 3/4 of the infections in the Caribbean (defined to include Belize and the Guyanas and The Bahamas). Given that most of the infections in the Caribbean originated from its US based VFR I will suggest to you that Dominicans in NYC are a heavily impacted group.

I also dont think that it will be "business as usual" in NYC next month. The entertainment sector will still be closed. NYC will not be an attractive place for people to visit, impacting the 300k people who work in tourism in that city. Whether the subways will be back to normal is anyone's guess. And hiding behind face masks, and dealing the end of enhanced unemployment payments ($3-4k monthly receipts being cut by more than 50%, drowning many in financial distress). Will the VFR be in a mood to return home? Remember that when they arrive their relative's second question (after "how are you?") is "what did you bring?"

I do agree that the DR, PR and maybe Jamaica will be the first back, given market dynamics. The question is whether the governments of these islands will be in the mood to reopen the borders, and whether "shelter in place" will stop. Not sure how many in the VFR want to visit if they are in "de facto quarantine."

What I do know is that last summer there were around 40 daily flights to the DR out of JFK/EWR. This summer will be a small fraction of that. Assuming that NYC and the DR reopen enough to encourage people to travel. The last thing that people will do is risk booking a trip if the probability exists that some island might go on lockdown is the virus reasserts itself.

I’m a Puerto Rican that resides on the mainland. I travel home frequently, not this year.

My parents are in their 60’s , they have underlying health conditions in addition I have many elderly relatives. The soonest I would even consider flying home is in August. People on the island don’t want a large influx of people from the mainland and worsen the outbreak there. The island is effectively shutdown and many on the island have requested these measures be extended into June. The island has a very weak health infrastructure, we in the diaspora know this and don’t want to make matters worse. I highly doubt this summer many of us will be flocking to the island as we usually do in the summer. There will always be travel between PR and the mainland but it will be much reduced.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalki
Fly the Flag!!!!
 
tphuang
Posts: 6169
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Wed Apr 22, 2020 11:44 pm

caribny wrote:
tphuang wrote:
e thing is that cases in New York is definitely slowing down. We are past the peak period. And i think by mid May, Cuomo will open up New York again for non-essential business although I'm sure people will still have to be cautious. And that will likely lead to re-opening NJ, CT and possibly other Northeastern states. The worst hit area in New York are actually not the heavily DR/PR populated areas. It's in the area around Elmhurst that have some of the poorest minority migrant groups. And the front line health care sector is over represented by Filipinos nurses, not necessarily Dominicans. We will see what happens, I lived in the heights up until 10 months ago. It seemed to me there was frequent travel back and forth in the community and many people just have homes in both places. They have businesses back in DR. They are not necessarily just visiting older relative.

Keep in mind, traffic doesn't need to revert to 100% or even 70%. B6 was running 10 flights a day to STI and SDQ from JFK/EWR with over all of those flights operated by A321s. They could go with 3 flights of A320s to both STI and SDQ and probably get higher LF than domestic routes (which had been seeing 10% LF for a few weeks).

I agreed leisure travel will come back a little slower. I'm just referring to flights from NYC to PR/DR/KIN, which are the bread and butter of JetBlue's island flying.

I also can't imagine these islands locking themselves down for more than a couple of months since a lot of them really depends economically on travel with US.


The heaviest hit area in Manhattan is in the Dominican neighborhoods, and this also extends to the west/south Bronx, which has large Dominican populations. 1/3 of the deaths are Hispanic and these aren't all Mexicans. Dominicans and PRs are the two largest Latin groups in NYC. We hear all about the hospital workers and cheer for them. But guess who we ignore. All of those who clean up these rooms, who perform home attendant services, who work in supermarkets, and in distribution. Among them are loads of Dominicans. They dont get PPEs, and so are heavily exposed to infection.

DR/PR account for almost 3/4 of the infections in the Caribbean (defined to include Belize and the Guyanas and The Bahamas). Given that most of the infections in the Caribbean originated from its US based VFR I will suggest to you that Dominicans in NYC are a heavily impacted group.

I also dont think that it will be "business as usual" in NYC next month. The entertainment sector will still be closed. NYC will not be an attractive place for people to visit, impacting the 300k people who work in tourism in that city. Whether the subways will be back to normal is anyone's guess. And hiding behind face masks, and dealing the end of enhanced unemployment payments ($3-4k monthly receipts being cut by more than 50%, drowning many in financial distress). Will the VFR be in a mood to return home? Remember that when they arrive their relative's second question (after "how are you?") is "what did you bring?"

I do agree that the DR, PR and maybe Jamaica will be the first back, given market dynamics. The question is whether the governments of these islands will be in the mood to reopen the borders, and whether "shelter in place" will stop. Not sure how many in the VFR want to visit if they are in "de facto quarantine."

What I do know is that last summer there were around 40 daily flights to the DR out of JFK/EWR. This summer will be a small fraction of that. Assuming that NYC and the DR reopen enough to encourage people to travel. The last thing that people will do is risk booking a trip if the probability exists that some island might go on lockdown is the virus reasserts itself.


The hardest hit area in New York is Queens, more specifically elmhurst area. You can check the heatmaps on that one. There is a good nytimes article on it. Pretty sad stuff. I would agree that bronx and the heights are hit harder than lower manhattan. That's just part of the socioeconomical tragedies in this entire affair.
As for NYC, it's not going to be 100% economy when things open up again, but we are past the peak on this first wave now. The new cases are declining and the positive test rate has fallen to 25% from closer to 45% a couple of weeks ago. Things will open in May. It won't be liffe as usual but there will be some normalcy. I don't expect leisure travel to Carribbeans to come back yet. Maybe we will get a flight to CUN or MBJ, but I think VFR is going to be ahead of that. Now, as I have said, you are probably only going to see 6 to 8 flights a day to DR from JFK/EWR. Even if demand is down 90% from a year ago, you can still get probably 50 to 60% LF when capacity is down 80% or more. A lot of people won't be going home, but some people with business ties can go back. Not everyone goes back to see elderly relatives.

At this point, airlines will be ecstatic with 50 to 60% LF on any of its flights. Of course, all of this is contingent on borders opening up again. We are not going to have 3000 new cases and 400 deaths per day in NYC from COVID for the next 3 month.
 
User avatar
jfklganyc
Posts: 6306
Joined: Mon Jan 05, 2004 2:31 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Thu Apr 23, 2020 12:53 am

united75x wrote:
jfklganyc wrote:
The island VFR flights do well for them

They fly empty planes down and 100 plus people back in the current environment.

Where else are you going to get 100 people nowadays on a plane?

This stuff will return in a big way before domestic travel



Most service to the Caribbean has been suspended. Looking at flight loads over he past few days, the DR has a bit over a 100 people coming from SDQ but everything else left in the Caribbean which is mainly SJU has less than a 100 people on each flight.



And what other flights in the system have 100 people nowadays?

The daily 100 loads from the DR are the shining star in the pandemic
 
dca1
Posts: 35
Joined: Sun Sep 01, 2019 7:39 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Thu Apr 23, 2020 12:58 am

does anyone see B6 being involved in a merger coming out of this. If so, if acquired... who and why? And if they are the acquirer, who and why?
 
Brickell305
Posts: 1302
Joined: Sat Jun 24, 2017 2:07 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Thu Apr 23, 2020 1:03 am

jfklganyc wrote:
united75x wrote:
jfklganyc wrote:
The island VFR flights do well for them

They fly empty planes down and 100 plus people back in the current environment.

Where else are you going to get 100 people nowadays on a plane?

This stuff will return in a big way before domestic travel



Most service to the Caribbean has been suspended. Looking at flight loads over he past few days, the DR has a bit over a 100 people coming from SDQ but everything else left in the Caribbean which is mainly SJU has less than a 100 people on each flight.



And what other flights in the system have 100 people nowadays?

The daily 100 loads from the DR are the shining star in the pandemic

Per the post above, Robin Hayes himself is saying that domestic is coming back before international. Argue with him if you don’t want to believe it.
 
tphuang
Posts: 6169
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Thu Apr 23, 2020 1:56 am

dca1 wrote:
does anyone see B6 being involved in a merger coming out of this. If so, if acquired... who and why? And if they are the acquirer, who and why?


In some order:
WN - if they get acquired by any of the big 4, WN would have the most resources to do this and the network fits (kind of)
AS - the most obvious merger partner. Big problem being B6's scope clause here and AS having regional fleet
NK - I think NK will be in big trouble given F9 just realigned there strategy to be like NK 2.0. Not enough space in post COVID low demand world for 2 NKs. Merger brings a lot of benefit to B6
HA - more due to their already close relationship and HA's problem with HI lockdown and WN presence in the market.

Brickell305 wrote:
Per the post above, Robin Hayes himself is saying that domestic is coming back before international. Argue with him if you don’t want to believe it.

Given the context of the interview, I think he was referring to longer distance international. For example, LGA-YYZ would not the same as JFK-CDG
 
B6BOSfan
Posts: 83
Joined: Fri Apr 19, 2019 5:11 am

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Thu Apr 23, 2020 2:42 am

USAavdork wrote:
Can someone help clarify the final CARES Act? Rumor has it from credible people that B6 won’t reopen HDN. They offered 2x weekly to BOS and 2x weekly to FLL. I would think they’d be required to fly 1x weekly. What’s the recourse if HDN doesn’t reopen?


When the flight extension came out, they were offering BOS-HDN. Now, it's gone. So, I guess a casualty. I might be one of the few people who is sad and WILL miss it.
 
arfbool
Posts: 109
Joined: Wed Sep 08, 2010 2:02 am

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Thu Apr 23, 2020 3:13 am

I also see JFK-PSP being offered 2x weekly with the last service on 5/31. I think there's too much over-analysis happening on here, not waiting for the smoke to clear. They've obviously been trying to make large schedule changes quickly and made some errors which are stabilized now.
 
User avatar
jfklganyc
Posts: 6306
Joined: Mon Jan 05, 2004 2:31 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Thu Apr 23, 2020 3:42 am

Brickell305 wrote:
jfklganyc wrote:
united75x wrote:


Most service to the Caribbean has been suspended. Looking at flight loads over he past few days, the DR has a bit over a 100 people coming from SDQ but everything else left in the Caribbean which is mainly SJU has less than a 100 people on each flight.



And what other flights in the system have 100 people nowadays?

The daily 100 loads from the DR are the shining star in the pandemic

Per the post above, Robin Hayes himself is saying that domestic is coming back before international. Argue with him if you don’t want to believe it.



I’m not talking about coming back… I’m talking about now!
 
caribny
Posts: 578
Joined: Sat Mar 16, 2019 1:47 am

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Thu Apr 23, 2020 7:26 am

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/the-b ... r-BB130lXL

Bronx on a per capita basis has the highest death rate in NYC. This means Dominicans, Puerto Ricans, Jamaicans, as these are in abundance there. B6 is the biggest on the NYC routes to those islands.

This is 2020. Folks can chat on Skype, Facetime or WhatsApp. Its not as if we have to travel to see people. This is going to be a quiet summer in the Caribbean, so the traditional festive reasons to go aren't there. As someone from PR said, many of us are terrified of visiting our older relatives in the Caribbean because we may be asymptomatic and so might (to put it bluntly) kill them if we go to see them. With nonessential businesses closed down (NY and in the Caribbean) what business reasons are there to travel. So we have ruled out the dominant reasons to travel. The islanders will be terrified to visit NYC, so less northbound travel which is a good % of summer market.

It is likely that if the Caribbean reopens this summer it will be to allow those stranded to return home, so automatic 14 day quarantine. So many non resident VFR will not travel.


And of course there are the economic impacts. Remittances are down significantly. If folks cannot afford to send cash to allow their parents, kids or other family members to live reasonably they aren't going to buy a ticket to go back home. The almost $3T spent on the COVID 19 stimulus was to carry us until June. Ditto the enhanced $600/week unemployment supplement. Suppose that the economy doesnt recover. More unemployed. Less unemployment payments, and this on top of bills that probably have piled up.

If travel is down by 70% that means that routes like SDQ, which had 10 flights daily out of NY, might have 3. And that is assuming that the DR doesnt remain on lockdown. What might help B6 is that DL is quite likely not going to return in the near term. Ditto UA, and AA might force all to fly via MIA (they are already a token presence to the Caribbean ex NYC).
 
trueblew
Posts: 228
Joined: Thu Nov 15, 2018 10:16 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Thu Apr 23, 2020 4:07 pm

jfklganyc wrote:
Brickell305 wrote:
jfklganyc wrote:


And what other flights in the system have 100 people nowadays?

The daily 100 loads from the DR are the shining star in the pandemic

Per the post above, Robin Hayes himself is saying that domestic is coming back before international. Argue with him if you don’t want to believe it.



I’m not talking about coming back… I’m talking about now!


You're correct. DR & PR flights appear to have the highest load factors by a large margin currently. This bodes well for their recovery I'd think.
 
tphuang
Posts: 6169
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Thu Apr 23, 2020 4:49 pm

Not just DR &PR. I found JFK-GEO flights seat maps were 2/3 full before they pushed the start date to November. I think Caribbean VFR will come back before even domestic leisure and transcon market.

On a side note, I noticed DL has made decision to basically fly A220 as much as possible during this time while parking other part of their fleet. B6 should take note in their fleet decisions. It's better for them to A220 and defer A321NEO if they want to get the right aircraft for the demand coming out of this. Park the highest maintenance aircraft they have.
 
Mikeer50
Posts: 13
Joined: Mon Oct 31, 2016 3:12 am

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Thu Apr 23, 2020 5:59 pm

tphuang wrote:
Not just DR &PR. I found JFK-GEO flights seat maps were 2/3 full before they pushed the start date to November. I think Caribbean VFR will come back before even domestic leisure and transcon market.

On a side note, I noticed DL has made decision to basically fly A220 as much as possible during this time while parking other part of their fleet. B6 should take note in their fleet decisions. It's better for them to A220 and defer A321NEO if they want to get the right aircraft for the demand coming out of this. Park the highest maintenance aircraft they have.


I think the problem with that is it will take a boat load of money to get that program (A220) up and running. Obviously right now they are trying to conserve every penny.
 
JoseSalazar
Posts: 398
Joined: Mon Oct 14, 2019 3:18 am

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Thu Apr 23, 2020 6:27 pm

Mikeer50 wrote:
tphuang wrote:
Not just DR &PR. I found JFK-GEO flights seat maps were 2/3 full before they pushed the start date to November. I think Caribbean VFR will come back before even domestic leisure and transcon market.

On a side note, I noticed DL has made decision to basically fly A220 as much as possible during this time while parking other part of their fleet. B6 should take note in their fleet decisions. It's better for them to A220 and defer A321NEO if they want to get the right aircraft for the demand coming out of this. Park the highest maintenance aircraft they have.


I think the problem with that is it will take a boat load of money to get that program (A220) up and running. Obviously right now they are trying to conserve every penny.



A lot of that money has already been spent. First sim is (or was) scheduled to arrive soon. A lot of the initial cadre has already been trained. The wheels are already in motion. CEO was recently on CNBC and was asked about deferring the 220...he pointed out that B6 is only taking 1 this year and 6 or so next year, so that it wasn’t very many, and that they are very excited to get it in the fleet and getting the program going and weren’t looking at deferring it, but that airbus is a good partner and they will continue to evaluate it.

I see the NEOs getting deferred before the A220s. It will be a good plane for the recovery. I thought pre-covid that B6 would end up keeping the 190s a little longer than previously stated, but I don’t see that now. I see the 190s leaving quickly (possibly quicker than a 1 for 1 with the 220), or used as a flex fleet but with low utilization, and the 220 coming on time.
 
JoseSalazar
Posts: 398
Joined: Mon Oct 14, 2019 3:18 am

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Fri Apr 24, 2020 8:26 pm

Looks like the milk runs will begin in May....

Boston – Chicago – Minneapolis/St. Paul
Boston – Denver – Albuquerque
Boston – New Orleans – Houston
Boston – Las Vegas – San Diego
Boston – Seattle – Portland OR
Long Beach – Palm Springs – New York/JFK
Long Beach – Salt Lake City – Bozeman
New York/JFK – Denver – Albuquerque
New York/JFK – Las Vegas – San Diego
New York/JFK – New Orleans – Houston
New York/JFK – Orlando – Sarasota
New York/JFK – San Francisco – Sacramento
New York/JFK – Seattle – Portland OR
 
User avatar
jfklganyc
Posts: 6306
Joined: Mon Jan 05, 2004 2:31 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Fri Apr 24, 2020 8:29 pm

JoseSalazar wrote:
Looks like the milk runs will begin in May....

Boston – Chicago – Minneapolis/St. Paul
Boston – Denver – Albuquerque
Boston – New Orleans – Houston
Boston – Las Vegas – San Diego
Boston – Seattle – Portland OR
Long Beach – Palm Springs – New York/JFK
Long Beach – Salt Lake City – Bozeman
New York/JFK – Denver – Albuquerque
New York/JFK – Las Vegas – San Diego
New York/JFK – New Orleans – Houston
New York/JFK – Orlando – Sarasota
New York/JFK – San Francisco – Sacramento
New York/JFK – Seattle – Portland OR


If the industry wasnt collapsing I would be so freakin excited right now.

It is like taking a DL 72S out west in the early 90s!
 
transportgeek
Posts: 8
Joined: Sat Mar 02, 2019 4:12 am

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Fri Apr 24, 2020 9:36 pm

JoseSalazar wrote:
Looks like the milk runs will begin in May....

Boston – Chicago – Minneapolis/St. Paul
Boston – Denver – Albuquerque
Boston – New Orleans – Houston
Boston – Las Vegas – San Diego
Boston – Seattle – Portland OR
Long Beach – Palm Springs – New York/JFK
Long Beach – Salt Lake City – Bozeman
New York/JFK – Denver – Albuquerque
New York/JFK – Las Vegas – San Diego
New York/JFK – New Orleans – Houston
New York/JFK – Orlando – Sarasota
New York/JFK – San Francisco – Sacramento
New York/JFK – Seattle – Portland OR


Source?
 
Brickell305
Posts: 1302
Joined: Sat Jun 24, 2017 2:07 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Fri Apr 24, 2020 9:37 pm

JoseSalazar wrote:
Looks like the milk runs will begin in May....

Boston – Chicago – Minneapolis/St. Paul
Boston – Denver – Albuquerque
Boston – New Orleans – Houston
Boston – Las Vegas – San Diego
Boston – Seattle – Portland OR
Long Beach – Palm Springs – New York/JFK
Long Beach – Salt Lake City – Bozeman
New York/JFK – Denver – Albuquerque
New York/JFK – Las Vegas – San Diego
New York/JFK – New Orleans – Houston
New York/JFK – Orlando – Sarasota
New York/JFK – San Francisco – Sacramento
New York/JFK – Seattle – Portland OR

Do you have an idea of what’s still flying from FLL in May? It appears the hubs (JFK, BOS, SJU) are still there, SFO, DCA and not much else. Much of what I can see is sub-daily as well.
 
tphuang
Posts: 6169
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Fri Apr 24, 2020 10:09 pm

That is long overdue. They should've copied AS a couple of weeks ago.

http://otp.investis.com/generic/sec/sec ... 3&Type=PDF
Looks like JetBlue finally executed on the agreement with Treasury and got the full amount of $935.8 million already. Also based on a comment I saw another thread, seems like until they finalized the agreement, they could do what they did with the mandatory days off. Probably why it took them this long to finalize on the agreement.

As for FLL, I'm tihnking it will remain small for a while and will be slow emerging out of the pandemic.
 
MIAFLLPBIFlyer
Posts: 554
Joined: Mon Jul 03, 2017 8:25 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Fri Apr 24, 2020 10:22 pm

tphuang wrote:
That is long overdue. They should've copied AS a couple of weeks ago.

http://otp.investis.com/generic/sec/sec ... 3&Type=PDF
Looks like JetBlue finally executed on the agreement with Treasury and got the full amount of $935.8 million already. Also based on a comment I saw another thread, seems like until they finalized the agreement, they could do what they did with the mandatory days off. Probably why it took them this long to finalize on the agreement.

As for FLL, I'm tihnking it will remain small for a while and will be slow emerging out of the pandemic.


FLL in general is in trouble. Need to hope at least one of B6 or NK remains committed to the market and international destinations from it after this is done. I am pretty sure Southwest will retrench for a while from beach markets ending a lot of the FLL connecting flows - they're not doing much VFR out of FLL to points south.

From what I am seeing MIA not doing much better outside of what AA is still flying. South Florida in general going to have a long slow crawl out of this. Unfortunately our economy down here just isn't diversified enough to bounce back quickly.
 
JoseSalazar
Posts: 398
Joined: Mon Oct 14, 2019 3:18 am

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Fri Apr 24, 2020 10:30 pm

Brickell305 wrote:
JoseSalazar wrote:
Looks like the milk runs will begin in May....

Boston – Chicago – Minneapolis/St. Paul
Boston – Denver – Albuquerque
Boston – New Orleans – Houston
Boston – Las Vegas – San Diego
Boston – Seattle – Portland OR
Long Beach – Palm Springs – New York/JFK
Long Beach – Salt Lake City – Bozeman
New York/JFK – Denver – Albuquerque
New York/JFK – Las Vegas – San Diego
New York/JFK – New Orleans – Houston
New York/JFK – Orlando – Sarasota
New York/JFK – San Francisco – Sacramento
New York/JFK – Seattle – Portland OR

Do you have an idea of what’s still flying from FLL in May? It appears the hubs (JFK, BOS, SJU) are still there, SFO, DCA and not much else. Much of what I can see is sub-daily as well.


No...everything is changing. Crews’ trips/schedules for May are changing and/or getting canceled and rebuilt. Even if I did have any info it’d probably change. But I don’t have anything specific to FLL.
 
Brickell305
Posts: 1302
Joined: Sat Jun 24, 2017 2:07 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Fri Apr 24, 2020 11:11 pm

MIAFLLPBIFlyer wrote:
tphuang wrote:
That is long overdue. They should've copied AS a couple of weeks ago.

http://otp.investis.com/generic/sec/sec ... 3&Type=PDF
Looks like JetBlue finally executed on the agreement with Treasury and got the full amount of $935.8 million already. Also based on a comment I saw another thread, seems like until they finalized the agreement, they could do what they did with the mandatory days off. Probably why it took them this long to finalize on the agreement.

As for FLL, I'm tihnking it will remain small for a while and will be slow emerging out of the pandemic.


FLL in general is in trouble. Need to hope at least one of B6 or NK remains committed to the market and international destinations from it after this is done. I am pretty sure Southwest will retrench for a while from beach markets ending a lot of the FLL connecting flows - they're not doing much VFR out of FLL to points south.

From what I am seeing MIA not doing much better outside of what AA is still flying. South Florida in general going to have a long slow crawl out of this. Unfortunately our economy down here just isn't diversified enough to bounce back quickly.

I agree. FLL especially is in for a world of trouble. So much of FLL traffic is leisure oriented and leisure demand will likely be so slow to return especially cruise traffic. MIA at the very least has AA’s hub which they aren’t walking away from unless they go under. Also, Latam/Caribbean based airlines are likely to return to MIA once borders reopen. I can also see certain carriers like CM, AV, BW, etc. considering whether to consolidate at MIA or FLL. It will be an interesting time ahead for the industry here in So. Fla.
 
tphuang
Posts: 6169
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sat Apr 25, 2020 12:32 am

MIAFLLPBIFlyer wrote:
tphuang wrote:
That is long overdue. They should've copied AS a couple of weeks ago.

http://otp.investis.com/generic/sec/sec ... 3&Type=PDF
Looks like JetBlue finally executed on the agreement with Treasury and got the full amount of $935.8 million already. Also based on a comment I saw another thread, seems like until they finalized the agreement, they could do what they did with the mandatory days off. Probably why it took them this long to finalize on the agreement.

As for FLL, I'm tihnking it will remain small for a while and will be slow emerging out of the pandemic.


FLL in general is in trouble. Need to hope at least one of B6 or NK remains committed to the market and international destinations from it after this is done. I am pretty sure Southwest will retrench for a while from beach markets ending a lot of the FLL connecting flows - they're not doing much VFR out of FLL to points south.

From what I am seeing MIA not doing much better outside of what AA is still flying. South Florida in general going to have a long slow crawl out of this. Unfortunately our economy down here just isn't diversified enough to bounce back quickly.


I don't think B6 is giving up in FLL long term. It would be silly to do so. They need a Latam hub and they are a lot stronger at FLL than MCO. Their Northeast to Florida stuff should return before other stuff. The VFR traffic out of FLL should also recover sooner.

But in the next 2 years, Caribbean leisure will be down and the domestic stuff relying on connections will be in trouble. If by next summer, they are still under 70 flights a day out of FLL, I will not be surprised. On the flip side, if WN does draw down and focus on other stations, that gives B6 plenty of reasons to build up FLL again 2 years from now. And they could have more gate space available at that time.

Also, I do wonder how the decline of cruise industry will hurt FLL.
 
MAH4546
Posts: 26526
Joined: Wed Jan 24, 2001 1:44 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sat Apr 25, 2020 1:10 am

Brickell305 wrote:
MIAFLLPBIFlyer wrote:
tphuang wrote:
That is long overdue. They should've copied AS a couple of weeks ago.

http://otp.investis.com/generic/sec/sec ... 3&Type=PDF
Looks like JetBlue finally executed on the agreement with Treasury and got the full amount of $935.8 million already. Also based on a comment I saw another thread, seems like until they finalized the agreement, they could do what they did with the mandatory days off. Probably why it took them this long to finalize on the agreement.

As for FLL, I'm tihnking it will remain small for a while and will be slow emerging out of the pandemic.


FLL in general is in trouble. Need to hope at least one of B6 or NK remains committed to the market and international destinations from it after this is done. I am pretty sure Southwest will retrench for a while from beach markets ending a lot of the FLL connecting flows - they're not doing much VFR out of FLL to points south.

From what I am seeing MIA not doing much better outside of what AA is still flying. South Florida in general going to have a long slow crawl out of this. Unfortunately our economy down here just isn't diversified enough to bounce back quickly.

I agree. FLL especially is in for a world of trouble. So much of FLL traffic is leisure oriented and leisure demand will likely be so slow to return especially cruise traffic. MIA at the very least has AA’s hub which they aren’t walking away from unless they go under. Also, Latam/Caribbean based airlines are likely to return to MIA once borders reopen. I can also see certain carriers like CM, AV, BW, etc. considering whether to consolidate at MIA or FLL. It will be an interesting time ahead for the industry here in So. Fla.


It's not a question of considering whether to consolidate at MIA or FLL. It's whether they keep both, or just fly to MIA.

South Florida is not in any more trouble necessarily than other regions of similar size - Miami especially is pretty diversified. And generally Latin America/Caribbean traffic bounces back quickest in these times when thigns recoever because: 1) LatAm is VFR heavy which is less elastic and 2) when people start travelling again, they stay close. A lot of smaller markets and European markets won't come back for a while, though, for sure.

The death of cruising is over exaggerated by angry people on Reddit who don't cruise. It'll bounce back fast - because its easy to plan, dirt cheap and very accessible. And Caribbean is the same.
a.
 
caribny
Posts: 578
Joined: Sat Mar 16, 2019 1:47 am

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sat Apr 25, 2020 2:00 am

There are two conflicting theories. Fear vs. cabin fever. Some think that confinement for so long will lead to a rush to travel once the worst of the pandemic is over. Others see fear of travel on planes and on cruises. Certainly the demographics will determine which works. I expect the "young and the affluent" to rush back. Older travelers less so. The VFR will be more cautious, more for economic than health reasons. Fewer trips to attend a birthday party, and more focus on urgent travel. Maybe usual peak loads, but less in the off peak, requiring lower fares.

BW has no need to consolidate its POS SoFL around MIA or FLL. Two different markets. B6 was already on the way out on the FLL POS route. What will however be interesting will be the Jamaica market. SoFL is virtually integrated into Jamaica so that VFR will bounce back quickly, and with it B6. Will BW have to become "smaller"? If that's the case I expect them to exit from its Jamaica USA routes, potentially putting B6 on a near monopoly on some of these routes, which they already dominate. I would not be surprised if a post COVID 19 results in a BW POS/GEO focus.


The Caribbean governments are claiming that they expect a slower recovery in the cruise sector and this winter are hoping to focus more on the stay over sector. Given that they are in consultation with the cruise industry I expect that they have reason to hold these views. I expect shorter cruises like those to the Bahamas to be OK. I expect the SJU base to be quite dead. Lots of airlift to that city is cruise based. This "social distance" that will be implemented if cruises are to resume, might be a drag on a long cruise. Not sure how many activities will be available either.

No industry is dying. The death of NYC was widespread after 9/11 but up to 2 months ago such a thought was laughable. Some segments will recover faster. New habits of "social distance" will be implemented. Less business travel, maybe less travel in huge groups, and avoiding crowds. But folks are going to tire of fear. The economic impact is another issue. If folks dont have money they cannot travel.
 
SoCalFlyer
Posts: 82
Joined: Fri Oct 10, 2014 12:16 am

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sat Apr 25, 2020 2:20 am

transportgeek wrote:
JoseSalazar wrote:
Looks like the milk runs will begin in May....

Boston – Chicago – Minneapolis/St. Paul
Boston – Denver – Albuquerque
Boston – New Orleans – Houston
Boston – Las Vegas – San Diego
Boston – Seattle – Portland OR
Long Beach – Palm Springs – New York/JFK
Long Beach – Salt Lake City – Bozeman
New York/JFK – Denver – Albuquerque
New York/JFK – Las Vegas – San Diego
New York/JFK – New Orleans – Houston
New York/JFK – Orlando – Sarasota
New York/JFK – San Francisco – Sacramento
New York/JFK – Seattle – Portland OR


Source?


I work here, and I can tell you these tag flights are indeed happening. We received an email today from our management.
 
User avatar
jfklganyc
Posts: 6306
Joined: Mon Jan 05, 2004 2:31 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sat Apr 25, 2020 2:20 am

FLL and Florida will be just fine

VFR will be fine too

You know what is going to happen when this opens up? People are going to want to travel. But they are going to want to travel to “safe” “familiar” “close” places.

No place in the US fits the bill better than Florida.

As for VFR, I keep flying 100 Dominicans around in throes of a pandemic. VFR will explode the minute things lighten up...even just a bit.

B6 is well positioned.

You know who you dont want to be right now? An airline with a fleet of hundreds of Trans Oceanic widebody aircraft.
 
SyracuseAvGeek
Posts: 715
Joined: Wed Apr 26, 2017 8:37 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sat Apr 25, 2020 3:45 am

SoCalFlyer wrote:
transportgeek wrote:
JoseSalazar wrote:
Looks like the milk runs will begin in May....

Boston – Chicago – Minneapolis/St. Paul
Boston – Denver – Albuquerque
Boston – New Orleans – Houston
Boston – Las Vegas – San Diego
Boston – Seattle – Portland OR
Long Beach – Palm Springs – New York/JFK
Long Beach – Salt Lake City – Bozeman
New York/JFK – Denver – Albuquerque
New York/JFK – Las Vegas – San Diego
New York/JFK – New Orleans – Houston
New York/JFK – Orlando – Sarasota
New York/JFK – San Francisco – Sacramento
New York/JFK – Seattle – Portland OR


Source?


I work here, and I can tell you these tag flights are indeed happening. We received an email today from our management.


What date in May do they begin? Also can someone book one of the tag flights? Example: can someone book a flight from Denver to Albuquerque on JetBlue?
"I haven't been everywhere yet, but it's on my list."

Popular Searches On Airliners.net

Top Photos of Last:   24 Hours  •  48 Hours  •  7 Days  •  30 Days  •  180 Days  •  365 Days  •  All Time

Military Aircraft Every type from fighters to helicopters from air forces around the globe

Classic Airliners Props and jets from the good old days

Flight Decks Views from inside the cockpit

Aircraft Cabins Passenger cabin shots showing seat arrangements as well as cargo aircraft interior

Cargo Aircraft Pictures of great freighter aircraft

Government Aircraft Aircraft flying government officials

Helicopters Our large helicopter section. Both military and civil versions

Blimps / Airships Everything from the Goodyear blimp to the Zeppelin

Night Photos Beautiful shots taken while the sun is below the horizon

Accidents Accident, incident and crash related photos

Air to Air Photos taken by airborne photographers of airborne aircraft

Special Paint Schemes Aircraft painted in beautiful and original liveries

Airport Overviews Airport overviews from the air or ground

Tails and Winglets Tail and Winglet closeups with beautiful airline logos