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Planeboy17
Posts: 439
Joined: Tue Feb 06, 2018 2:18 am

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sat Apr 25, 2020 4:35 am

SyracuseAvGeek wrote:
SoCalFlyer wrote:
transportgeek wrote:

Source?


I work here, and I can tell you these tag flights are indeed happening. We received an email today from our management.


What date in May do they begin? Also can someone book one of the tag flights? Example: can someone book a flight from Denver to Albuquerque on JetBlue?

Not all flights begin in May, some will start in June, don’t know which ones though. I believe they will be loaded this weekend.
 
flyby519
Posts: 1574
Joined: Tue Jul 24, 2007 3:31 am

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sat Apr 25, 2020 11:16 am

SyracuseAvGeek wrote:
SoCalFlyer wrote:
transportgeek wrote:

Source?


I work here, and I can tell you these tag flights are indeed happening. We received an email today from our management.


What date in May do they begin? Also can someone book one of the tag flights? Example: can someone book a flight from Denver to Albuquerque on JetBlue?


You will be able to book just the tag portion.
 
tphuang
Posts: 5308
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sat Apr 25, 2020 1:27 pm

caribny wrote:
There are two conflicting theories. Fear vs. cabin fever. Some think that confinement for so long will lead to a rush to travel once the worst of the pandemic is over. Others see fear of travel on planes and on cruises. Certainly the demographics will determine which works. I expect the "young and the affluent" to rush back. Older travelers less so. The VFR will be more cautious, more for economic than health reasons. Fewer trips to attend a birthday party, and more focus on urgent travel. Maybe usual peak loads, but less in the off peak, requiring lower fares.

Another thing to consider is the infection rate in NY. Recent antibody test in NYC found that over 20% of people have coronavirus antibodies and the % is higher among black and Hispanic population. Assuming that's accurate or close to accurate, we could already be at a point where more than 30% of work class DR/PR new yorkers have had coroanvirus and are unlikely to get to infected again. Of course, nothing is for certain. But another month from now, that could be over 40%. At some piont, herd immunity does kick in. And before vaccine, we could get drugs that at least can significantly reduce the mortality (which is now estimated to be a lot lower than previous thought) and hospitalization rates. With some good anti-viral drugs, this thing is really not that scary for most people. While this may linger in other parts of the country, New York (especially the segment of population hard hit) may get through this sooner than expected.

And even before March, the fares on JFK-SDQ/STI were only $110 on BE fares and JFK-SJU was like $70 in BE fares. I don't see them going much lower than that. So if by Q3, we are at 40% previous year's demand during summer peak season and 70% previous year's demand around Q4 holiday season, I would think JetBlue be ecstatic. And by next summer, I would not be surprised if demand is back to close to 100% of 2019 level in these markets.

BW has no need to consolidate its POS SoFL around MIA or FLL. Two different markets. B6 was already on the way out on the FLL POS route. What will however be interesting will be the Jamaica market. SoFL is virtually integrated into Jamaica so that VFR will bounce back quickly, and with it B6. Will BW have to become "smaller"? If that's the case I expect them to exit from its Jamaica USA routes, potentially putting B6 on a near monopoly on some of these routes, which they already dominate. I would not be surprised if a post COVID 19 results in a BW POS/GEO focus.

Right, it's a very real possibility that B6 will have monopoly on JFK-KIN after this blows over. How long can BW sustain flying empty planes between JFK and KIN/POS/GEO? I don't get the sense they were doing that well financially before this started.

The Caribbean governments are claiming that they expect a slower recovery in the cruise sector and this winter are hoping to focus more on the stay over sector. Given that they are in consultation with the cruise industry I expect that they have reason to hold these views. I expect shorter cruises like those to the Bahamas to be OK. I expect the SJU base to be quite dead. Lots of airlift to that city is cruise based. This "social distance" that will be implemented if cruises are to resume, might be a drag on a long cruise. Not sure how many activities will be available either.

No industry is dying. The death of NYC was widespread after 9/11 but up to 2 months ago such a thought was laughable. Some segments will recover faster. New habits of "social distance" will be implemented. Less business travel, maybe less travel in huge groups, and avoiding crowds. But folks are going to tire of fear. The economic impact is another issue. If folks dont have money they cannot travel.


Right, I do expect the Carribean leisure stuff to be weak until the winter at least. If I'm taking to get out of the house in 3 months, I'm going to go somewhere where I don't have to worry about getting quarantined and not allowed to come back. And that will ACK/MVY or Florida right now.

I also do expect them to make significant cuts to PR in the next year or so. If SJU was peaking at 44 flights a day before this hit. It will be down to around 30 a year from now.

jfklganyc wrote:
FLL and Florida will be just fine

VFR will be fine too

You know what is going to happen when this opens up? People are going to want to travel. But they are going to want to travel to “safe” “familiar” “close” places.

No place in the US fits the bill better than Florida.

As for VFR, I keep flying 100 Dominicans around in throes of a pandemic. VFR will explode the minute things lighten up...even just a bit.

B6 is well positioned.

You know who you dont want to be right now? An airline with a fleet of hundreds of Trans Oceanic widebody aircraft.

100%

I would not want to be in AA or UA's shoe right now. It does bring the question of what kind of opportunity opens up after this. We will see. BOS and JFK are obvious priorities. But aside from that, B6 should go talk to AA/UA about leasing LGA slots. B6 can maybe get more LAX/SFO gates than they previously thought (even 6 to 8 gates at LAX and 4 at SFO would be great). Does RDU become a place they can grow if DL downsizes there?
 
Nicknuzzii
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sat Apr 25, 2020 2:13 pm

Why does everyone just seem to think this crisis will only effect other carriers and B6 will prosper from it?
 
tphuang
Posts: 5308
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sat Apr 25, 2020 3:06 pm

Nicknuzzii wrote:
Why does everyone just seem to think this crisis will only effect other carriers and B6 will prosper from it?

It's affecting all the carriers and B6 will have a hard time through all of this. But some carriers entered in with less debt and more cash than others so will come out the pandemic in a better position.

It also matters which type of routes will come back first and what kind of actions each carrier will take. At this point, it seems reasonable to assume that B6 will be one of the less likely carriers to have to file chapter 11, because they went in with the second least amount of debt (first being WN) and went in with among the most cash to burn (behind WN, G4 and NK). Given their low debt level, they are able to borrow more cash, so they probably can last longer than most carrier in a low revenue environment. I think WN is the one that can last the longest. Also things in B6 favor is that a relatively high % of its costs are in salaries and wages compared to ULCCs, so it got a higher subsidy than ULCCs got as a % of overall cost. And due to its network being more legacy like, the service requirements of CARES act also doesn't hurt it very much. Again, it seems to me that WN, B6 and AS got really good deals from CARES act.

And then, we have to look at their network and what's likely to come back first. It's not stuck with all the widebodies (multiples of them) like on legacies when there is little
TATL/TPAC demand. It's also a mixture of VFR, domestic/international leisure and business, so it's likely not stuck with a bunch of zero-demand route a year from now. Again, WN is in better position and AS is going to do well too, but B6 will have some opportunities once this is over.
 
MIAFLLPBIFlyer
Posts: 502
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sat Apr 25, 2020 4:27 pm

MAH4546 wrote:
Brickell305 wrote:
MIAFLLPBIFlyer wrote:

FLL in general is in trouble. Need to hope at least one of B6 or NK remains committed to the market and international destinations from it after this is done. I am pretty sure Southwest will retrench for a while from beach markets ending a lot of the FLL connecting flows - they're not doing much VFR out of FLL to points south.

From what I am seeing MIA not doing much better outside of what AA is still flying. South Florida in general going to have a long slow crawl out of this. Unfortunately our economy down here just isn't diversified enough to bounce back quickly.

I agree. FLL especially is in for a world of trouble. So much of FLL traffic is leisure oriented and leisure demand will likely be so slow to return especially cruise traffic. MIA at the very least has AA’s hub which they aren’t walking away from unless they go under. Also, Latam/Caribbean based airlines are likely to return to MIA once borders reopen. I can also see certain carriers like CM, AV, BW, etc. considering whether to consolidate at MIA or FLL. It will be an interesting time ahead for the industry here in So. Fla.


It's not a question of considering whether to consolidate at MIA or FLL. It's whether they keep both, or just fly to MIA.

South Florida is not in any more trouble necessarily than other regions of similar size - Miami especially is pretty diversified. And generally Latin America/Caribbean traffic bounces back quickest in these times when thigns recoever because: 1) LatAm is VFR heavy which is less elastic and 2) when people start travelling again, they stay close. A lot of smaller markets and European markets won't come back for a while, though, for sure.

The death of cruising is over exaggerated by angry people on Reddit who don't cruise. It'll bounce back fast - because its easy to plan, dirt cheap and very accessible. And Caribbean is the same.


It's funny was just having the same thought on the Cruise Industry last night. It might bounce back faster than let's say amusement parks because it is relatively cheap and despite the bad press, still far easier to keep a certain degree of quality control and social distance. As for beach destinations they might actually be cheaper now for trips than going to Europe particularly of DY is no more. So perhaps the idea floating that FLL is in big trouble and MIA in serious trouble albeit less than FLL is greatly overplayed. MCO on the other hand...
 
MAH4546
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sat Apr 25, 2020 5:34 pm

MIAFLLPBIFlyer wrote:
MAH4546 wrote:
Brickell305 wrote:
I agree. FLL especially is in for a world of trouble. So much of FLL traffic is leisure oriented and leisure demand will likely be so slow to return especially cruise traffic. MIA at the very least has AA’s hub which they aren’t walking away from unless they go under. Also, Latam/Caribbean based airlines are likely to return to MIA once borders reopen. I can also see certain carriers like CM, AV, BW, etc. considering whether to consolidate at MIA or FLL. It will be an interesting time ahead for the industry here in So. Fla.


It's not a question of considering whether to consolidate at MIA or FLL. It's whether they keep both, or just fly to MIA.

South Florida is not in any more trouble necessarily than other regions of similar size - Miami especially is pretty diversified. And generally Latin America/Caribbean traffic bounces back quickest in these times when thigns recoever because: 1) LatAm is VFR heavy which is less elastic and 2) when people start travelling again, they stay close. A lot of smaller markets and European markets won't come back for a while, though, for sure.

The death of cruising is over exaggerated by angry people on Reddit who don't cruise. It'll bounce back fast - because its easy to plan, dirt cheap and very accessible. And Caribbean is the same.


It's funny was just having the same thought on the Cruise Industry last night. It might bounce back faster than let's say amusement parks because it is relatively cheap and despite the bad press, still far easier to keep a certain degree of quality control and social distance. As for beach destinations they might actually be cheaper now for trips than going to Europe particularly of DY is no more. So perhaps the idea floating that FLL is in big trouble and MIA in serious trouble albeit less than FLL is greatly overplayed. MCO on the other hand...


Honestly I don’t think Orlando is in trouble either. There will be significant pent up demand and people, especially Americans, forget very fast. I personally will have no concerns about going to a theme park in a few months. We can’t hide in fear.
a.
 
tphuang
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sat Apr 25, 2020 7:05 pm

I'm not too optimistic about Orlando in the near future. The risk of an infection in such a large crowded gathering with families of wide age range seems more than going to your second home in south florida and enjoying the son. We are also looking at an economic issue. With 20% unemployment rate for several months, many people are going to be broke and can't afford to take a whole family flying down to Disney for a vacation. A lot of middle class family that does this once or twice a year aren't going to be able to do so. Whereas the people that have 1 residence in NY/NJ/CT/MA and 1 in South Florida that take multiple trips every year to avoid the blue state tax and enjoy the sun in Florida were most likely able to work from home. And the yuppies going down to florida to play/party are most likely white collar able to work from home and not suffering that much in the income department. These are the people most likely to feel the cabin fever and want to travel. So I see traffic to MIA/FLL/PBI/RSW/SRQ pick up before MCO. The MCO to PR stuff is likely to come back to 80-90% of 2019 level before mickey land stuff.

I'm just unsold that cruise stuff to south florida or the Carribean leisure stuff that depend on connection traffic will come back to even 75% next year. So let's say if May 2019 had 95 to 100 flights a day out of FLL, maybe May 2021 will see more like 70 to 75 flights a day. And if May 2019 had 62 to 67 flights a day to MCO, May 2021 will be around 47 to 52 flights a day.


Also, I'm curious on how the premium transcon market will look after this. UA has already been putting domestically configured 737s on EWR-SFO/LAX. And I kind of doubt they will bring back flatbed to BOS-SFO/LAX after this. I'm going to guess that DL also rolls back most of the non JFK-LAX/SFO transcon D1 servie. I can't imagine what kind of premium traffic JFK-LAS will be getting to warrant flat bed. I think we will see mint withdrawing from LAS and also possibly reduce to 1x daily on BOS-SEA/SAN. As for where these frames will go, maybe they can add more flights on JFK-LAX or start EWR-LAX. It will also be interesting to see what AA does on JFK-LAX/SFO. A321T seems to be the wrong aircraft to be using in a weak economy. 757/767 are most likely going out of service. So what will they be using?
 
MIflyer12
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sat Apr 25, 2020 8:24 pm

I wouldn't be enthusiastic about Orlando. It relies first, on family leisure travel; and second, on convention travel. I don't recall articles in respected sources arguing that those drivers of demand will be quick to come back.

'We can't live in fear?' You can get sick, and you can get lots of other people sick.
 
caribny
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sun Apr 26, 2020 11:44 pm

tphuang wrote:
[focus.

Right, it's a very real possibility that B6 will have monopoly on JFK-KIN after this blows over. How long can BW sustain flying empty planes between JFK and KIN/POS/GEO? I don't get the sense they were doing that well financially before this started.

?



BW was actually doing quite well before the COVID 19, making 2 years of back to back profits on their international routes. As many Caribbean carriers have fallen by the way side BW is a survivor, as is Cayman Airways T&T has already stated that they will support their survival, and can justify this given that the competition have all received government bailouts.

BW will be back as a force into POS/GEO, especially as their competition might be more cautious, seeking focus on larger markets. Remember that BW, based in the region, will have to service those markets. B6 doesnt have to. It would be no shock if B6 defers its JFK GEO. I definitely expect UA/DL to focus on their core Caribbean markets, deferring resuming service on the more peripheral routes to some later stage.

Of course what happens after the pandemic is everyone's guess. The jury is still out on immunity in the event of a rerun of the pandemic. In any case the economic impacts will hurt even more people than will the infections and the broad swath of the VFR markets will be hit in the aftermath. What will airfares be, who knows, but airlines will have to recoup losses somehow. The NY and SoFL markets to the Caribbean will recover fastest given the broader swath of market segments served.

Also remember that VFR markets are increasingly complicated. Are Puerto Ricans in NYC more integrated to VFR travel to FL or to PR? Ditto for many other Caribbean groups as the migration matures and these markets increasingly consist of the 2nd generation, and less on recent arrivals.
 
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chepos
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Mon Apr 27, 2020 1:55 am

caribny wrote:
tphuang wrote:
[focus.

Right, it's a very real possibility that B6 will have monopoly on JFK-KIN after this blows over. How long can BW sustain flying empty planes between JFK and KIN/POS/GEO? I don't get the sense they were doing that well financially before this started.

?



BW was actually doing quite well before the COVID 19, making 2 years of back to back profits on their international routes. As many Caribbean carriers have fallen by the way side BW is a survivor, as is Cayman Airways T&T has already stated that they will support their survival, and can justify this given that the competition have all received government bailouts.

BW will be back as a force into POS/GEO, especially as their competition might be more cautious, seeking focus on larger markets. Remember that BW, based in the region, will have to service those markets. B6 doesnt have to. It would be no shock if B6 defers its JFK GEO. I definitely expect UA/DL to focus on their core Caribbean markets, deferring resuming service on the more peripheral routes to some later stage.

Of course what happens after the pandemic is everyone's guess. The jury is still out on immunity in the event of a rerun of the pandemic. In any case the economic impacts will hurt even more people than will the infections and the broad swath of the VFR markets will be hit in the aftermath. What will airfares be, who knows, but airlines will have to recoup losses somehow. The NY and SoFL markets to the Caribbean will recover fastest given the broader swath of market segments served.

Also remember that VFR markets are increasingly complicated. Are Puerto Ricans in NYC more integrated to VFR travel to FL or to PR? Ditto for many other Caribbean groups as the migration matures and these markets increasingly consist of the 2nd generation, and less on recent arrivals.

Many of the Puerto Ricans in the tri state area are now second or third generation. Some have little to no links to the island. There are still some recent arrivals but they are in the minority. The vast majority of Puerto Ricans from the island now looks to Central Florida (Orlando/Lakeland/Ocala/Deltona) as the land of opportunity.


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Fly the Flag!!!!
 
caribny
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Mon Apr 27, 2020 10:09 pm

chepos wrote:

Right, it's a very real possibility that B6 will have monopoly on JFK-KIN after this blows over. How long can BW sustain flying empty planes between
Many of the Puerto Ricans in the tri state area are now second or third generation. Some have little to no links to the island. There are still some recent arrivals but they are in the minority. The vast majority of Puerto Ricans from the island now looks to Central Florida (Orlando/Lakeland/Ocala/Deltona) as the land of opportunity.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk



Yes people underestimate the fact that the Puerto Rican population in NYC isnt really Puerto Rican anymore. Many when asked to self identify might even answer "Spanish", as they dont identify with PR and this is the normal NYC vernacular to refer to people of undisclosed Latin American descent. When Maria evacuees were fleeing to the US mainland NYS/NYC were setting up arrangements for them and then were shocked to find few takers, even as FL was overburdened.


FL is now where both groups of Puerto Ricans meet. Not NYC nor SJU. The VFR market for Puerto Ricans in NY is MCO, not SJU. DR is now the main Latin VFR market out of NYC. I see in the DR 40k people have been arrested for violating shelter in place. Dont see legions of Dominicans from NY heading home this summer, unless these rules are sharply reduced.
 
usflyer msp
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Mon Apr 27, 2020 11:17 pm

Delete
 
tphuang
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Tue Apr 28, 2020 4:31 pm

https://paxex.aero/2020/04/jetblue-aims ... s-network/
now jetblue is looking to drop major cities from its network for a few months, it seems like. Imo, this really just shows JetBlue does not expect domestic business travel to come back anytime soon. At least to a level to even warrant token service without losing a whole lot of money.

I don't agree the idea of disappearing entirely from all these cities for a few months. I think they should keep some presence in some of these cities like PHL/ORD/DTW/BNA. We will see what DOT will allows. One thing for sure is that this should reduce their burn rate to a minimal level, since they will most likely be just operating 10% of their schedule unless Florida/VFR stuff comes back with more demand than expected.

caribny wrote:
Yes people underestimate the fact that the Puerto Rican population in NYC isnt really Puerto Rican anymore. Many when asked to self identify might even answer "Spanish", as they dont identify with PR and this is the normal NYC vernacular to refer to people of undisclosed Latin American descent. When Maria evacuees were fleeing to the US mainland NYS/NYC were setting up arrangements for them and then were shocked to find few takers, even as FL was overburdened.


FL is now where both groups of Puerto Ricans meet. Not NYC nor SJU. The VFR market for Puerto Ricans in NY is MCO, not SJU. DR is now the main Latin VFR market out of NYC. I see in the DR 40k people have been arrested for violating shelter in place. Dont see legions of Dominicans from NY heading home this summer, unless these rules are sharply reduced.

Even if NYC isn't the largest VFR market, there is still a lot of VFR demand to SJU out of JFK/EWR. Or else, B6 would not be running 8 flights a day there on mostly A321s in summer season.

All the evidence show PR/DR flights whether out of NYC or FL is likely doing far better than rest of their network.
 
CaptCoolHand
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Tue Apr 28, 2020 6:31 pm

tphuang wrote:
https://paxex.aero/2020/04/jetblue-aims-to-drop-16-major-hub-destinations-from-its-network/
now jetblue is looking to drop major cities from its network for a few months, it seems like. Imo, this really just shows JetBlue does not expect domestic business travel to come back anytime soon. At least to a level to even warrant token service without losing a whole lot of money.

I don't agree the idea of disappearing entirely from all these cities for a few months. I think they should keep some presence in some of these cities like PHL/ORD/DTW/BNA. We will see what DOT will allows. One thing for sure is that this should reduce their burn rate to a minimal level, since they will most likely be just operating 10% of their schedule unless Florida/VFR stuff comes back with more demand than expected.

caribny wrote:
Yes people underestimate the fact that the Puerto Rican population in NYC isnt really Puerto Rican anymore. Many when asked to self identify might even answer "Spanish", as they dont identify with PR and this is the normal NYC vernacular to refer to people of undisclosed Latin American descent. When Maria evacuees were fleeing to the US mainland NYS/NYC were setting up arrangements for them and then were shocked to find few takers, even as FL was overburdened.


FL is now where both groups of Puerto Ricans meet. Not NYC nor SJU. The VFR market for Puerto Ricans in NY is MCO, not SJU. DR is now the main Latin VFR market out of NYC. I see in the DR 40k people have been arrested for violating shelter in place. Dont see legions of Dominicans from NY heading home this summer, unless these rules are sharply reduced.

Even if NYC isn't the largest VFR market, there is still a lot of VFR demand to SJU out of JFK/EWR. Or else, B6 would not be running 8 flights a day there on mostly A321s in summer season.

All the evidence show PR/DR flights whether out of NYC or FL is likely doing far better than rest of their network.


JMO, tphuang I usually agree with just about everything you have on here, but not on this one. Right now there is little to no demand for many of these routes and no reason to waste tens of thousands of dollars on fuel and man hours for a handful of passengers. Currently the situation is long term survival, not short term presents for the sake of presents. They need to cut everywhere they can so when this subsided they can jump back into the game.
 
PHLspecial
Posts: 660
Joined: Sun Aug 12, 2018 4:11 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Tue Apr 28, 2020 10:17 pm

I guess it's cheaper to park the E190s and not complete at the hub airports. I'm surprised though that's is a lot major cities but business down a lot.
 
Planeboy17
Posts: 439
Joined: Tue Feb 06, 2018 2:18 am

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Tue Apr 28, 2020 10:57 pm

CaptCoolHand wrote:
tphuang wrote:
https://paxex.aero/2020/04/jetblue-aims-to-drop-16-major-hub-destinations-from-its-network/
now jetblue is looking to drop major cities from its network for a few months, it seems like. Imo, this really just shows JetBlue does not expect domestic business travel to come back anytime soon. At least to a level to even warrant token service without losing a whole lot of money.

I don't agree the idea of disappearing entirely from all these cities for a few months. I think they should keep some presence in some of these cities like PHL/ORD/DTW/BNA. We will see what DOT will allows. One thing for sure is that this should reduce their burn rate to a minimal level, since they will most likely be just operating 10% of their schedule unless Florida/VFR stuff comes back with more demand than expected.

caribny wrote:
Yes people underestimate the fact that the Puerto Rican population in NYC isnt really Puerto Rican anymore. Many when asked to self identify might even answer "Spanish", as they dont identify with PR and this is the normal NYC vernacular to refer to people of undisclosed Latin American descent. When Maria evacuees were fleeing to the US mainland NYS/NYC were setting up arrangements for them and then were shocked to find few takers, even as FL was overburdened.


FL is now where both groups of Puerto Ricans meet. Not NYC nor SJU. The VFR market for Puerto Ricans in NY is MCO, not SJU. DR is now the main Latin VFR market out of NYC. I see in the DR 40k people have been arrested for violating shelter in place. Dont see legions of Dominicans from NY heading home this summer, unless these rules are sharply reduced.

Even if NYC isn't the largest VFR market, there is still a lot of VFR demand to SJU out of JFK/EWR. Or else, B6 would not be running 8 flights a day there on mostly A321s in summer season.

All the evidence show PR/DR flights whether out of NYC or FL is likely doing far better than rest of their network.


JMO, tphuang I usually agree with just about everything you have on here, but not on this one. Right now there is little to no demand for many of these routes and no reason to waste tens of thousands of dollars on fuel and man hours for a handful of passengers. Currently the situation is long term survival, not short term presents for the sake of presents. They need to cut everywhere they can so when this subsided they can jump back into the game.

But how can they save on man hours? They cannot furlough or reduce pay correct? So basically they just will reduce operating costs of flying, unless I’m mistaken.
 
BlueBaller
Posts: 73
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Tue Apr 28, 2020 11:12 pm

[/quote]
But how can they save on man hours? They cannot furlough or reduce pay correct? So basically they just will reduce operating costs of flying, unless I’m mistaken.[/quote]

The company is offering several different options for reducing hours so as to not affect the actual hourly rates. Flight attendants and pilots are getting offers for several different tiers of leaves of absences and stay-at-home lines with reduced monthly pay credit through LOAs between management and unions.
 
CobaltScar
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Wed Apr 29, 2020 12:37 am

They are asking people to take the next 5 months off without pay and many are doing it because unemployment is so much thanks to covid bucks.
 
caribny
Posts: 464
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Wed Apr 29, 2020 9:28 am

tphuang wrote:


Even if NYC isn't the largest VFR market, there is still a lot of VFR demand to SJU out of JFK/EWR. Or else, B6 would not be running 8 flights a day there on mostly A321s in summer season.

All the evidence show PR/DR flights whether out of NYC or FL is likely doing far better than rest of their network.


Not all NYC/SJU traffic is VFR. There is also business, leisure (both directions) and cruise. When one considers the size of the latter it just shows how far SJU has fallen from the days when there were widebodies flown by AA, TW, and EA on that route. And this was before SJU became an AA transit hub for the Eastern Caribbean. JFK is much less than MCO and only slightly more than FLL MCO is about what JFK/EWR combined are. FL 2x larger than NY/NJ.
 
trueblew
Posts: 157
Joined: Thu Nov 15, 2018 10:16 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Tue May 05, 2020 3:20 pm

The DOT has approved the B6 request to temporarily suspend service to large hub airports from 5 May to 30 September. Any guesses whether this will be a total suspension off the bat, or if they'll reduce to weekly service to some of these destinations?

https://www.regulations.gov/contentStre ... ntType=pdf
 
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iamjoeym
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Tue May 05, 2020 6:55 pm

trueblew wrote:
The DOT has approved the B6 request to temporarily suspend service to large hub airports from 5 May to 30 September. Any guesses whether this will be a total suspension off the bat, or if they'll reduce to weekly service to some of these destinations?

https://www.regulations.gov/contentStre ... ntType=pdf



Will be interesting how soon this goes into effect, as we haven't received communication from the company yet.
 
Blueknows
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Wed May 06, 2020 12:47 am

It’s going to be ASAP. Steve priest is doing phone call this week and this will happen within week or so. Employees have already set up for summer off or stay home or work. This is part of a bigger plan. Don’t be surprised to hear B6 parking all E190, or getting rid of them completely. Not a phase out but a quick and swift retirement. I think the big story is some moron from the DOT listing Phoenix,NV
 
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NWAESC
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Wed May 06, 2020 1:05 am

Can you clarify what the options are for employees in those 16 cities?
"Nothing ever happens here, " I said. "I just wait."
 
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TheLunchbox
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Wed May 06, 2020 3:25 am

Blueknows wrote:
It’s going to be ASAP. Steve priest is doing phone call this week and this will happen within week or so. Employees have already set up for summer off or stay home or work. This is part of a bigger plan. Don’t be surprised to hear B6 parking all E190, or getting rid of them completely. Not a phase out but a quick and swift retirement. I think the big story is some moron from the DOT listing Phoenix,NV


I'm fairly certain you don't know Steve's agenda and who he's calling. Some info you're talking about could be from a pocket session with crewmembers which is probably internal only.
 
Blueknows
Posts: 414
Joined: Fri Oct 19, 2018 3:31 am

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Wed May 06, 2020 11:16 am

I’m pretty sure it’s the stay at home fir 80% pay
 
tphuang
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Wed May 06, 2020 11:19 am

We will find out more, but I would guess that some of these cities will come back a lot sooner whereas some other cities like MSP/ATL/DFW/IAH might take longer to get added back. This just gives them the option to not serve these cities. Who knows what end of Q3 and Q4 look like at this point.
 
unusualattitude
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Joined: Tue Apr 12, 2016 5:49 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Wed May 06, 2020 12:22 pm

Blueknows is a gate agent and has a history of posting preposterous predictions that never come true. They have no more inside information than the average employee and certainly know nothing about the long term fleet plan. Feel free to scroll on when you see the name.
 
Boston757
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Wed May 06, 2020 2:20 pm

Hows the London route coming along? I know it was posted and discussed at one point that JetBlue may be able to get a advantages London slot. be it LHR or LGW..Secondly, where is Jet Blue on their certification for there proposed aircraft and route.

Cheers
 
tphuang
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Wed May 06, 2020 3:06 pm

Boston757 wrote:
Hows the London route coming along? I know it was posted and discussed at one point that JetBlue may be able to get a advantages London slot. be it LHR or LGW..Secondly, where is Jet Blue on their certification for there proposed aircraft and route.

Cheers


I think we will probably get more info on this tomorrow in the earning call. I'd think at this point, LGW slots should be widely available and LHR slots might be easier to come by than anytime in the past decade.
 
FARmd90
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Wed May 06, 2020 5:20 pm

So it looks like tomorrow jetblue is going to do a NYC flyover at 7pm with its 3 NY themed 320s. According to the email sent out about it this fly over is coming at no cost to jetblue
 
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jfklganyc
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Wed May 06, 2020 5:27 pm

TPA puzzles me.

Try to book a flight this week. Full full full.

This is not a city to cut
 
Flflyer83
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Joined: Tue Apr 14, 2020 4:40 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Wed May 06, 2020 6:52 pm

jfklganyc wrote:
TPA puzzles me.

Try to book a flight this week. Full full full.

This is not a city to cut


Flights were being sold for $18.
 
Brickell305
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Joined: Sat Jun 24, 2017 2:07 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Wed May 06, 2020 7:06 pm

jfklganyc wrote:
TPA puzzles me.

Try to book a flight this week. Full full full.

This is not a city to cut

When they filed for the exemption, they cited load factor of 15% to TPA. Maybe things have changed since and they won’t take advantage of the exemption.
 
flyby519
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Wed May 06, 2020 7:20 pm

Brickell305 wrote:
jfklganyc wrote:
TPA puzzles me.

Try to book a flight this week. Full full full.

This is not a city to cut

When they filed for the exemption, they cited load factor of 15% to TPA. Maybe things have changed since and they won’t take advantage of the exemption.


Good point, just because they have approval to cut these routes doesn't mean they must cut them.
 
CRJ5000
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Wed May 06, 2020 7:28 pm

jfklganyc wrote:
TPA puzzles me.

Try to book a flight this week. Full full full.

This is not a city to cut



Is Jetblue blocking middle seats? If so, even a "full flight" doesn't quite break even given that the break even load factor is about 70%. And most flights aren't even that full. Not sure if they use contract workers at TPA, but if so, bringing them in for a single flight is probably also quite cost prohibitive in comparison to running their full schedule.
 
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VCVSpotter
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Wed May 06, 2020 7:31 pm

FARmd90 wrote:
So it looks like tomorrow jetblue is going to do a NYC flyover at 7pm with its 3 NY themed 320s. According to the email sent out about it this fly over is coming at no cost to jetblue


Yup, here's a link that provides a few more details

https://www.flightradar24.com/blog/foll ... -on-7-may/
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... edit#gid=0

Just a normal teenager juggling AP classes and airplanes. No biggie • Love the 747 & 777-9 • Farewell KLM 747-400M
 
CaptainObvious1
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Wed May 06, 2020 9:16 pm

FARmd90 wrote:
So it looks like tomorrow jetblue is going to do a NYC flyover at 7pm with its 3 NY themed 320s. According to the email sent out about it this fly over is coming at no cost to jetblue


Who will be covering the cost of the flights?
 
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jfklganyc
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Wed May 06, 2020 10:06 pm

Flflyer83 wrote:
jfklganyc wrote:
TPA puzzles me.

Try to book a flight this week. Full full full.

This is not a city to cut


Flights were being sold for $18.[/quote

You understand that 3 weeks ago you could have paid people $18 and the plane would have been empty right?

But if it makes you feel better B6 is offering a connection via Bos for $253

Or the next date the flight is flying that isnt sold out $199 for the non stop one way.
 
maverick4002
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Wed May 06, 2020 10:51 pm

FARmd90 wrote:
So it looks like tomorrow jetblue is going to do a NYC flyover at 7pm with its 3 NY themed 320s. According to the email sent out about it this fly over is coming at no cost to jetblue


routing?
 
UWPAviation
Posts: 147
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Wed May 06, 2020 11:36 pm

jfklganyc wrote:
FLL and Florida will be just fine

VFR will be fine too

You know what is going to happen when this opens up? People are going to want to travel. But they are going to want to travel to “safe” “familiar” “close” places.

No place in the US fits the bill better than Florida.

As for VFR, I keep flying 100 Dominicans around in throes of a pandemic. VFR will explode the minute things lighten up...even just a bit.

B6 is well positioned.

You know who you dont want to be right now? An airline with a fleet of hundreds of Trans Oceanic widebody aircraft.


DING DING DING!!! This is the correct response. My brother/sister-inlaw had to postpone there Disneyworld vacation from late April to late September. And they have told me numerous times they ARE going. Id imagine there are hundreds of thousands of people who had there spring break/easter break trips postponed, refunded, cancelled etc. that are dying to travel. Especially after being cooped up inside for months. And yes, people are not going to be going out to Cancun, Jamacia, Europe. They will go to the close and familiar. Florida, Myrtle Beach, California, Las Vegas.

I think there will be a spike when we get out of this. And it will then plateau. Then slowly but surely we will see it climb back.
 
FARmd90
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Thu May 07, 2020 1:25 am

maverick4002 wrote:
FARmd90 wrote:
So it looks like tomorrow jetblue is going to do a NYC flyover at 7pm with its 3 NY themed 320s. According to the email sent out about it this fly over is coming at no cost to jetblue


routing?


https://m.facebook.com/?_rdr#!/JetBlue/ ... oser=false

Hopefully that link works and takes you to the correct post, if not just head over to the Facebook page for jetblue and it will be there
 
tphuang
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Thu May 07, 2020 1:35 am

I got wind of this earlier thanks to a pm, but here is a link now
https://paxex.aero/2020/05/jetblue-susp ... -airports/
6 of the 16 applied cities will be suspended. I'm honestly a little surprised ORD/PHL are fully suspending. I would've picked PHX/CLT instead. It looks like they are reducing frequencies to some of the other cities. I really doubt TPA will see much reductions.

Apparently, reduction for June will be 70% vs 90% in May. That seems quite aggressive. I hope they will cut more than that.

Also looks like the following international routes are returning.
JFK-CUN/STI/SDQ/PLS
MCO-CUN
SJU-SDQ/PUJ
FLL-NAS
It's not clear to me why CUN/PLS is back? Maybe Mexico and Turks & Caicos still have their borders open? That's the only explanation I think of. Otherwise, I'd imagine KIN would be back sooner.

Also surprising to me is that both JFK-GEO/GUA is delayed starting until next year. I would've guessed before this holiday season, but maybe they are not optimistic about Winter 2021 demand.

Looks like they are trying to get ABQ/BZN/PSP/RNO/SMF again. I'd rather see these smaller places suspended than ORD/PHL. I hope those get added back sooner.
 
PHLspecial
Posts: 660
Joined: Sun Aug 12, 2018 4:11 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Thu May 07, 2020 6:37 am

tphuang wrote:
I got wind of this earlier thanks to a pm, but here is a link now
https://paxex.aero/2020/05/jetblue-susp ... -airports/
6 of the 16 applied cities will be suspended. I'm honestly a little surprised ORD/PHL are fully suspending. I would've picked PHX/CLT instead. It looks like they are reducing frequencies to some of the other cities. I really doubt TPA will see much reductions.

Apparently, reduction for June will be 70% vs 90% in May. That seems quite aggressive. I hope they will cut more than that.

Also looks like the following international routes are returning.
JFK-CUN/STI/SDQ/PLS
MCO-CUN
SJU-SDQ/PUJ
FLL-NAS
It's not clear to me why CUN/PLS is back? Maybe Mexico and Turks & Caicos still have their borders open? That's the only explanation I think of. Otherwise, I'd imagine KIN would be back sooner.

Also surprising to me is that both JFK-GEO/GUA is delayed starting until next year. I would've guessed before this holiday season, but maybe they are not optimistic about Winter 2021 demand.

Looks like they are trying to get ABQ/BZN/PSP/RNO/SMF again. I'd rather see these smaller places suspended than ORD/PHL. I hope those get added back sooner.

I'm disappointed with PHL. Though the 6 Airports suspended was hub airports or focus city airports. How long are these routes suspended for? Until October?
 
N757ST
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Thu May 07, 2020 1:42 pm

A220 still a go, adding at least one delivery position. Some A321Neos deferred. Still taking 15 LRs between 2021-2022.
 
tphuang
Posts: 5308
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Thu May 07, 2020 1:47 pm

Aside from A220, interesting news on the TATL front.

So, 5 LR next year and 7 in 2022. That means they are planning to launch TATL service in 2021 still. That's surprising to me. I would imagine it will be toward second half of the year at this point.

More importantly, the AA/BA JV is under UK's Competition and Market Authority scrutiny due to brexit. They have established that 5 markets with not enough competition including Boston, Chicago, Dallas, Miami and Philadelphia. So BA/AA have offered releasing slots at LHR/LGW to enable additional competition on LON-BOS/DFW/MIA.

I'm sure JetBlue is very excited about the Boston part. LR is probably too short ranged for FLL. Not sure if they can request to compete on FLL-LHR in 2023 when XLR becomes available.
 
N757ST
Posts: 1031
Joined: Sat Feb 16, 2002 6:00 am

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Thu May 07, 2020 1:52 pm

The LR might be the perfect airplane especially for secondary Europe post covid. The forward thinking thing to do is continue with Europe, entry opportunities like this don't come along very often, even if the service isnt profitable off the bat.

And bad math, I meant 12 LRs.
 
flyby519
Posts: 1574
Joined: Tue Jul 24, 2007 3:31 am

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Thu May 07, 2020 4:56 pm

tphuang wrote:
Aside from A220, interesting news on the TATL front.

So, 5 LR next year and 7 in 2022. That means they are planning to launch TATL service in 2021 still. That's surprising to me. I would imagine it will be toward second half of the year at this point.

More importantly, the AA/BA JV is under UK's Competition and Market Authority scrutiny due to brexit. They have established that 5 markets with not enough competition including Boston, Chicago, Dallas, Miami and Philadelphia. So BA/AA have offered releasing slots at LHR/LGW to enable additional competition on LON-BOS/DFW/MIA.

I'm sure JetBlue is very excited about the Boston part. LR is probably too short ranged for FLL. Not sure if they can request to compete on FLL-LHR in 2023 when XLR becomes available.


I don’t know how the specifics of the slots go, but could B6 offer a direct FLL-LHR or DFW-LHR flight with a stop in JFK? Would that satisfy the rules?
 
jsteeves3
Posts: 100
Joined: Sat Jan 06, 2018 7:00 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Thu May 07, 2020 7:22 pm

October 2019 JetBlue # of Flights Per Day and Load Factors (Outbound Only) by Focus City

BOS
Domestic:
154.84 Flights
82% Load Factor
Latin America:
7.61 Flights
74% Load Factor
TOTAL Flights Per Day: 162.45

JFK
Domestic:
111.19 Flights
83% Load Factor
Latin America:
34.32 Flights
76% Load Factor
TOTAL Flights Per Day: 145.51

FLL
Domestic:
63.97 Flights
80% Load Factor
Latin America:
30.68 Flights
69% Load Factor
TOTAL Flights Per Day: 94.65

MCO
Domestic:
52.74 Flights
82% Load Factor
Latin America:
8.26 Flights
77% Load Factor
TOTAL Flights Per Day: 61

SJU
Domestic:
23.29 Flights
84% Load Factor
Latin America:
5.03 Flights
79% Load Factor
TOTAL Flights Per Day: 28.32

LGB
Domestic:
21.45 Flights
79% Load Factor
Latin America:
0 Flights
- Load Factor
TOTAL Flights Per Day: 21.45

Other Large Stations

DCA
Domestic:
28.65 Flights
83% Load Factor
Latin America:
0 Flights
- Load Factor
TOTAL Flights Per Day: 28.65

EWR
Domestic:
23.23 Flights
81% Load Factor
Latin America:
2.10 Flights
76% Load Factor
TOTAL Flights Per Day: 25.33

PBI
Domestic:
20.77 Flights
75% Load Factor
Latin America:
0 Flights
- Load Factor
TOTAL Flights Per Day: 20.77

LAX
Domestic:
19 Flights
89% Load Factor
Latin America:
0 Flights
- Load Factor
TOTAL Flights Per Day: 19

SFO
Domestic:
15.39 Flights
87% Load Factor
Latin America:
0 Flights
- Load Factor
TOTAL Flights Per Day: 15.39

TPA
Domestic:
12.29 Flights
85% Load Factor
Latin America:
0 Flights
- Load Factor
TOTAL Flights Per Day: 12.29

LAS
Domestic:
11.32 Flights
86% Load Factor
Latin America:
0 Flights
- Load Factor
TOTAL Flights Per Day: 11.32

RSW
Domestic:
10.52 Flights
75% Load Factor
Latin America:
0 Flights
- Load Factor
TOTAL Flights Per Day: 10.52

ATL
Domestic:
9.03 Flights
80% Load Factor
Latin America:
0 Flights
- Load Factor
TOTAL Flights Per Day: 9.03

PHL
Domestic:
9 Flights
76% Load Factor
Latin America:
0 Flights
- Load Factor
TOTAL Flights Per Day: 9

BDL
Domestic:
8.74 Flights
83% Load Factor
Latin America:
0 Flights
- Load Factor
TOTAL Flights Per Day: 8.74

SLC
Domestic:
7.23 Flights
85% Load Factor
Latin America:
0 Flights
- Load Factor
TOTAL Flights Per Day: 7.23

AUS
Domestic:
6.58 Flights
84% Load Factor
Latin America:
0 Flights
- Load Factor
TOTAL Flights Per Day: 6.58

SAN
Domestic:
6.45 Flights
83% Load Factor
Latin America:
0 Flights
- Load Factor
TOTAL Flights Per Day: 6.45

SEA
Domestic:
5.68 Flights
86% Load Factor
Latin America:
0 Flights
- Load Factor
TOTAL Flights Per Day: 5.68
 
BlueBaller
Posts: 73
Joined: Sun Sep 01, 2019 8:07 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Thu May 07, 2020 7:27 pm

flyby519 wrote:
tphuang wrote:
Aside from A220, interesting news on the TATL front.

So, 5 LR next year and 7 in 2022. That means they are planning to launch TATL service in 2021 still. That's surprising to me. I would imagine it will be toward second half of the year at this point.

More importantly, the AA/BA JV is under UK's Competition and Market Authority scrutiny due to brexit. They have established that 5 markets with not enough competition including Boston, Chicago, Dallas, Miami and Philadelphia. So BA/AA have offered releasing slots at LHR/LGW to enable additional competition on LON-BOS/DFW/MIA.

I'm sure JetBlue is very excited about the Boston part. LR is probably too short ranged for FLL. Not sure if they can request to compete on FLL-LHR in 2023 when XLR becomes available.


I don’t know how the specifics of the slots go, but could B6 offer a direct FLL-LHR or DFW-LHR flight with a stop in JFK? Would that satisfy the rules?


By the time Europe gets off the ground these tag flights will be a year in the rear view. JetBlue will be back to point to point long before then.

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