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tphuang
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sat May 16, 2020 4:21 pm

JetBlue joining all the other airlines in extending mosaic status by a year + lowering threshold for this year. On top of this, they also added a gifting of one mosaic membership that has been quite well received as one might expect.
https://paxex.aero/2020/05/jetblue-mosa ... extension/

Also, they introduced a double point promotion to try to get people to buy tickets.

Looks like they expect, similar to other carriers, that the demand will still be weak next year, so adding more mosaic members may attract some more loyalty from customers. Also, I wonder if this is going to lead an additional mosaic tier. Seems like the existing one is going to cheapen overtime. And with Europe coming, it should be easier than ever to reach the current mosaic levels.

Other thing I noticed is that AC looks to really be hurting (even more than US carriers) from COVID. It makes me wonder about 2 things:
1) whether or not that will make it easier for B6 to enter Canada in the next few years.
2) whether or not AC will be willing to give up a couple of LGA slots.

Going to be interesting to see how long the slot waivers last.
 
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ChrisNH38
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sat May 16, 2020 4:57 pm

The Canadian government will throw up any obstacle it can to prevent JetBlue from taking advantage of a massively weakened AC.
https://my.flightradar24.com/ChrisNH
 
MIflyer12
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sat May 16, 2020 5:35 pm

Which is none, under an Open Skies agreement. B6 is a competitor for Air Canada like a squirrel fights a lion.
 
N757ST
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sat May 16, 2020 6:53 pm

I can’t speak to the validity of this, but apparently the bind market is pretty confident in jetblue.

https://www.barrons.com/articles/boeing ... 1589294871
 
tphuang
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sun May 17, 2020 4:30 pm

Alright, changes are in for June this week. From what I can see, early June still looks awfully like May in terms of schedule, but second half of June seem to have expanded to the 30% schedule that they talked about.

Based on a Monday in late June, the number of flights I see from some major stations
BOS - 56
JFK - 57
FLL - 26
MCO - 16
EWR - 15

What stands out to me look at some of the schedule changes is how much DR/PR schedule have already been added back. For example the following from OAG thread.
B6 BOS-SJU JUN 3.0>2.1[3.6]
B6 FLL-SJU JUN 4>2.4[6]
B6 JFK-SDQ JUN 5>3[6]
B6 JFK-SJU JUN 5>2.8[6]
B6 JFK-STI JUN 5>4[7]
B6 EWR-SDQ JUN 1.5>0.5[1.0]
B6 EWR-SJU JUN 3.2>1.4[2.6]
B6 EWR-STI JUN 2>1.5[1.6]

remember looking at this changes that things are back heavy, so SJU is already seeing 2 to 4 on most days from JFK, EWR seeing 2x and BOS seeing 3x. SDQ is seeing 5x daily from JFK/EWR and STI is seeing 6x daily from JFK/EWR.

Also I'm seeing basically no legacy presence on any of these routes out of JFK/EWR. Which if they continue, will allow B6 to recover at NYC a lot sooner.

I'm also seeing a lot of mint flying returning. There is 9x daily to LAX from JFK/BOS/FLL and 5x daily to SFO from JFK/BOS/FLL.

the other thing that seems to be obvious is that MCO demand is way down. They are running about 20 to 25% of their pre-COVID schedule vs BOS/JFK/EWR which are running a little more than 30% of their pre-COVID schedule.

Interesting to see almost as much schedule out of EWR as MCO. It will be interesting to see how quickly they add back flights out of EWR. Based on what they've done recently, it seems like EWR could recover to its pre-COVID size of about 30x flights a day quicker than any other stations. It obviously helps that UA has cut what seems to be 90 to 95% of its EWR schedule. JetBlue is facing no pressure on EWR-PR/DR at the moment.

Another thing I think might benefit JetBlue is that competitors have been pretty aggressive cutting flights at JetBlue focus cities. Out of FLL, I'm seeing a bunch of monopolies due to NK/WN cuts. I'm not sure how long that will hold up, but it's probably also indicative of demand out of South Florida. Obvious, NYC has seen a lot of cuts, so JetBlue is probably running also as many flights out of EWR/JFK as DL by late June and more than UA. Again, I have no checked LGA, but B6 is unopposed on a lot of these JFK routes. And out of BOS, they are probably running 3 or 4 times the number of flights as AA/DL. If that continues to hold up, they are going to have a lot of monopolies.

At this pace, it wouldn't be too surprising if they are running close to half of their pre-COVID schedule out of JFK/EWR//BOS sometimes this fall. Again, this really depends also on what UA and DL do out of these stations, but could be a chance for B6 to build things back before their competition. Whether or not that is a good things is debatable.
 
cpl22586
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Mon May 18, 2020 9:11 am

Also looking at a Monday in late June for JFK looks like UVF, PAP, PUJ, MBJ, NAS, AUA, POP, CUN, SXM, SDQ, STI will be returning but have a feeling will be subject to change depending on current conditions.
 
WOengn
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Mon May 18, 2020 10:23 am

Take it for what it's worth, but I do facilities engineering for some US airlines (mostly AA, B6, DL, UA, WN, and Breeze).

Almost all but the most critical projects have been on hold, but JetBlue is the first (under our contracts) to lift their hold on non-critical items such as hold rooms, employee spaces, tool areas, energy management, etc.

I don't know if that's necessarily good, but it's a tiny step towards more normalcy.
 
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jfklganyc
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Mon May 18, 2020 2:09 pm

I’m telling you what they’re doing...
They are using their resources to make a run at Kennedy LaGuardia and Newark

They will continue to do this and prioritize that over all other hubs

And as I said even in the depths of this in April...DR and PR is king.

If Jetblue can survive, they are going to be an excellent place in New York City. Excellent.

They will also be in an excellent place in Boston
 
CobaltScar
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Mon May 18, 2020 2:14 pm

jfklganyc wrote:
I’m telling you what they’re doing...
They are using their resources to make a run at Kennedy LaGuardia and Newark

They will continue to do this and prioritize that over all other hubs

And as I said even in the depths of this in April...DR and PR is king.

If Jetblue can survive, they are going to be an excellent place in New York City. Excellent.

They will also be in an excellent place in Boston


Ok but what about the big new southern terminal at MCO they are supposed to move in late next year? I'm sure they got commitments to fill there or are they going to let all the gate space go to competitors and be back to square one at MCO?
 
Nicknuzzii
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Mon May 18, 2020 2:31 pm

What really would be B6’s plan for EWR I’m the future? Get to 50 flights by 2025?
 
tphuang
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Mon May 18, 2020 2:45 pm

I think NY/NJ area air travel will be less affected by a second wave than April. A lot of people have already got it as evidence in those antibody tests. People know a lot of people that have gotten them and most cases have been mild (especially for under 60 no pre-existing condition group). People are learning how to live with it as time goes on. Corporate demand will still be down since large companies don't want half of their office infected from non-essential air travel, but JetBlue has always been more dependent on VFR and yuppie leisure than legacy airlines.

If DL/UA continues to take their time adding back capacity, B6 is going to able to fill that void.

CobaltScar wrote:

Ok but what about the big new southern terminal at MCO they are supposed to move in late next year? I'm sure they got commitments to fill there or are they going to let all the gate space go to competitors and be back to square one at MCO?


There is a giant opening in NY (largest one in a long time) and you are worried about MCO?

cpl22586 wrote:
Also looking at a Monday in late June for JFK looks like UVF, PAP, PUJ, MBJ, NAS, AUA, POP, CUN, SXM, SDQ, STI will be returning but have a feeling will be subject to change depending on current conditions.

AUA did not show up for me, so I didn't count it. I think DR stuff is coming back and same with CUN. Not sure about the other ones.
 
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jfklganyc
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Mon May 18, 2020 3:38 pm

CobaltScar wrote:
jfklganyc wrote:
I’m telling you what they’re doing...
They are using their resources to make a run at Kennedy LaGuardia and Newark

They will continue to do this and prioritize that over all other hubs

And as I said even in the depths of this in April...DR and PR is king.

If Jetblue can survive, they are going to be an excellent place in New York City. Excellent.

They will also be in an excellent place in Boston


Ok but what about the big new southern terminal at MCO they are supposed to move in late next year? I'm sure they got commitments to fill there or are they going to let all the gate space go to competitors and be back to square one at MCO?


There is always space at MCO and always will be.

Runway, ramp and terminal space aplenty.

That is why B6 growth there always gets thrown off in favor of growth in constrained airports like NY BOS and Lauderdale
 
wnflyguy
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Mon May 18, 2020 8:59 pm

Is it true JetBlue is officially chopping west coast markets LGB,ONT,SJC,ABQ,PDX,PSP and RNO on October 1 once Cares act stipulations run out?

Flyguy
My Wings are clipped just another Retired Airline person. The Ultimate Armchair out of the loop airline industry geek. Aloha Mr Hand!
 
tphuang
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Mon May 18, 2020 9:15 pm

wnflyguy wrote:
Is it true JetBlue is officially chopping west coast markets LGB,ONT,SJC,ABQ,PDX,PSP and RNO on October 1 once Cares act stipulations run out?

Flyguy

I can't imagine all these markets are gone. Although, I think it would make sense to chop ABQ, PSP and RNO. They did well enough at ONT before COVID that I see them returning at some point, even if not Oct 1. It makes no sense for them to cut SJC, when BOS-SJC performed really well. I don't think they are leaving LGB completely just yet, but chopping down to 5 or less flights is likely.

There is no reason for them to leave PDX. Maybe they can suspend it until next spring if they think fall and winter demand is too low.
 
nine4nine
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Mon May 18, 2020 10:15 pm

wnflyguy wrote:
Is it true JetBlue is officially chopping west coast markets LGB,ONT,SJC,ABQ,PDX,PSP and RNO on October 1 once Cares act stipulations run out?

Flyguy



Let’s hope so. LGB brings nothing to the table. Unfriendly community, unfriendly business environment, no FIS, and trash yields. They are better off beefing up LAX as there will be a surplus of gates and can run a nice handful of international flights as well as having high yielding BUR as the secondary feeder to the LA basin.
717, 727-100, 727-200, 732, 733, 734, 735, 73G, 738, 739, 742, 748, 752, 753, 762, 763, 772, 77W, 787-10, DC9, MD80/88/90, DC10, 319, 220-300, 320, 321, 321n, 332, 333, CS100, CRJ200, Q400, E175, E190, ERJ145, EMB120
 
BlueBaller
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Tue May 19, 2020 5:12 pm

https://seekingalpha.com/article/434865 ... eighs-risk

Seems to echo a lot of the recent sentiment discussed here lately. While still very much in survival mode, if B6 can continue to make smart financial decisions and reinvest in itself in as pragmatic a manner possible, the restart could quite possibly surprise even the most conservative skeptics out there.
 
tphuang
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Tue May 19, 2020 10:06 pm

Looks like JetBlue is going to be taking the first A220 assembled at Mobile.

Also from today's Wolfe Research conference, AA said that international and corporate traffic will be coming back much slower. Leisure and "unmanaged business travel" (businesses that don't have a corp contract) are coming back sooner. All of this favours JetBlue getting demand coming back sooner than legacy airlines.

I'm hoping that JetBlue will be talking on this conference also on the topic of how demand is coming back and their current cash situation. Be curious what kind of capacity level they are thinking for July/August.
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Tue May 19, 2020 10:14 pm

tphuang wrote:
Looks like JetBlue is going to be taking the first A220 assembled at Mobile.

Also from today's Wolfe Research conference, AA said that international and corporate traffic will be coming back much slower. Leisure and "unmanaged business travel" (businesses that don't have a corp contract) are coming back sooner. All of this favours JetBlue getting demand coming back sooner than legacy airlines.

I'm hoping that JetBlue will be talking on this conference also on the topic of how demand is coming back and their current cash situation. Be curious what kind of capacity level they are thinking for July/August.


They were the first airline to present
https://www.meetmax.com/upload/event_59 ... Agenda.pdf
Status for 2019/2020: AAdvantage Platinum, Delta Gold, Southwest A-List
 
tphuang
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Wed May 20, 2020 1:10 am

Midwestindy wrote:
tphuang wrote:
Looks like JetBlue is going to be taking the first A220 assembled at Mobile.

Also from today's Wolfe Research conference, AA said that international and corporate traffic will be coming back much slower. Leisure and "unmanaged business travel" (businesses that don't have a corp contract) are coming back sooner. All of this favours JetBlue getting demand coming back sooner than legacy airlines.

I'm hoping that JetBlue will be talking on this conference also on the topic of how demand is coming back and their current cash situation. Be curious what kind of capacity level they are thinking for July/August.


They were the first airline to present
https://www.meetmax.com/upload/event_59 ... Agenda.pdf


Thanks a lot. No wonder I didn't see any tweet on this. Not much interesting stuff coming out.
Just a few things to note again:
- CFO looks at 10 million a day cash burn as the bottom line in a no revenue environment. So I guess if they get more booking coming in, the cash burn will go below that.
- Said slot situation for TATL is looking a whole lot better. They are waiting on the CMA decision on LHR slots. They are not willing to pay a lot of money for slots.
- They look at coming out of this like back in 2009 to 2011. He said they got into mint transcon and PR opportunity as things that opened up from 2008 financial crisis.
- Kept talking about how their cost control and conservative planning has allowed to come into this in a really strong position.
- They are still making PDPs and other payments on the aircraft they are taking. Just in general, they seem to be very confident in their cash position vs what you see with UA.
- Would get nervous if cash position falls below 700 to 800 million range.
 
jco613
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Wed May 20, 2020 4:36 am

Wow how things change in a week. I’m seeing FLL and JFK to ATL back in mid June. Looks like BOS-BNA too. Looks like I’m seeing 25 FLL flights for June 15 including MBJ NAS JAX RDU and even POS/SXM (sat only). Improvement
 
tphuang
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Thu May 21, 2020 4:37 pm

From https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2 ... ttom-video
RH interviewed on bloomberg.
Saying 70 to 75% cut in June vs 85 to 90% cut in May. (again, I see closer to 70% down for late June and 80% down in early June)
- a lot of essential worker flying still
- a lot of VFR, flying home, some small interest in vacation travelers.
- trying to see the protocols from Caribbean countries in opening back up
- business coming back slowly
- Thinks people will get confused by quarantine rules, so will stay close to home for their travel.
- TATL will happen later 2021 (rather than late 2021, so maybe sooner than Q4) and see demand coming back next year. So maybe they will try next summer.
- see bright path into London airports
- will be smaller and trying to not do any furlough
- 14k out of 23k staff have taken some form of voluntary time off
- thinks mint will bounce back strongly
- leisure market that's once per day will be sub-daily. Doesn't see withdrawing from any city.

I don't know if I believe the last part in not leaving any airport. I think there is a few that they don't need to stay in. As for furlough, I hope it doesn't happen. I don't know enough about labor contracts to know if the cost of furlough at JetBlue is lower than in legacy airlines (who have been making decisions based on demand next Q3 rather than end of this year). If cost of furlough at JetBlue is close to legacies, then they might not furlough if they expect to be 90% of their pre-COVID size by next summer. And so much of what they do is dependent on their legacy competitors. if they continue their current trend of bringing back NYC/BOS really slowly, that might give JetBlue more room at some of these routes to bring back capacity more quickly. It would seem to me that smaller airlines like JetBlue that depend so much on 2 or 3 population centers would have a harder time to plan their future size in this type of recovery.
 
flyby519
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Thu May 21, 2020 4:53 pm

tphuang wrote:
From https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2 ... ttom-video
RH interviewed on bloomberg.
Saying 70 to 75% cut in June vs 85 to 90% cut in May. (again, I see closer to 70% down for late June and 80% down in early June)
- a lot of essential worker flying still
- a lot of VFR, flying home, some small interest in vacation travelers.
- trying to see the protocols from Caribbean countries in opening back up
- business coming back slowly
- Thinks people will get confused by quarantine rules, so will stay close to home for their travel.
- TATL will happen later 2021 (rather than late 2021, so maybe sooner than Q4) and see demand coming back next year. So maybe they will try next summer.
- see bright path into London airports
- will be smaller and trying to not do any furlough
- 14k out of 23k staff have taken some form of voluntary time off
- thinks mint will bounce back strongly
- leisure market that's once per day will be sub-daily. Doesn't see withdrawing from any city.

I don't know if I believe the last part in not leaving any airport. I think there is a few that they don't need to stay in. As for furlough, I hope it doesn't happen. I don't know enough about labor contracts to know if the cost of furlough at JetBlue is lower than in legacy airlines (who have been making decisions based on demand next Q3 rather than end of this year). If cost of furlough at JetBlue is close to legacies, then they might not furlough if they expect to be 90% of their pre-COVID size by next summer. And so much of what they do is dependent on their legacy competitors. if they continue their current trend of bringing back NYC/BOS really slowly, that might give JetBlue more room at some of these routes to bring back capacity more quickly. It would seem to me that smaller airlines like JetBlue that depend so much on 2 or 3 population centers would have a harder time to plan their future size in this type of recovery.


Furlough costs will naturally be much smaller at a carrier like B6 vs DL since there aren’t as many different fleet types to shuffle around staffing and training costs, but it would be a big benefit to keep frontline employees on the property so they can be positioned to flex capacity up and down as the recovery progresses. There is more risk of a small carrier like B6 not being able to spool up fast enough to meet demand vs letting another competitor get a foothold in a key market.
 
trueblew
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Thu May 21, 2020 5:05 pm

flyby519 wrote:
tphuang wrote:
From https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2 ... ttom-video
RH interviewed on bloomberg.
Saying 70 to 75% cut in June vs 85 to 90% cut in May. (again, I see closer to 70% down for late June and 80% down in early June)
- a lot of essential worker flying still
- a lot of VFR, flying home, some small interest in vacation travelers.
- trying to see the protocols from Caribbean countries in opening back up
- business coming back slowly
- Thinks people will get confused by quarantine rules, so will stay close to home for their travel.
- TATL will happen later 2021 (rather than late 2021, so maybe sooner than Q4) and see demand coming back next year. So maybe they will try next summer.
- see bright path into London airports
- will be smaller and trying to not do any furlough
- 14k out of 23k staff have taken some form of voluntary time off
- thinks mint will bounce back strongly
- leisure market that's once per day will be sub-daily. Doesn't see withdrawing from any city.

I don't know if I believe the last part in not leaving any airport. I think there is a few that they don't need to stay in. As for furlough, I hope it doesn't happen. I don't know enough about labor contracts to know if the cost of furlough at JetBlue is lower than in legacy airlines (who have been making decisions based on demand next Q3 rather than end of this year). If cost of furlough at JetBlue is close to legacies, then they might not furlough if they expect to be 90% of their pre-COVID size by next summer. And so much of what they do is dependent on their legacy competitors. if they continue their current trend of bringing back NYC/BOS really slowly, that might give JetBlue more room at some of these routes to bring back capacity more quickly. It would seem to me that smaller airlines like JetBlue that depend so much on 2 or 3 population centers would have a harder time to plan their future size in this type of recovery.


Furlough costs will naturally be much smaller at a carrier like B6 vs DL since there aren’t as many different fleet types to shuffle around staffing and training costs, but it would be a big benefit to keep frontline employees on the property so they can be positioned to flex capacity up and down as the recovery progresses. There is more risk of a small carrier like B6 not being able to spool up fast enough to meet demand vs letting another competitor get a foothold in a key market.


B6 effectively have three fleet types and relatively generous furlough language in the pilot contract. On a relative basis, it would be much more expensive than WN/NK/F9, but somewhat less than DL.
 
flyby519
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Thu May 21, 2020 5:20 pm

trueblew wrote:
flyby519 wrote:
tphuang wrote:
From https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2 ... ttom-video
RH interviewed on bloomberg.
Saying 70 to 75% cut in June vs 85 to 90% cut in May. (again, I see closer to 70% down for late June and 80% down in early June)
- a lot of essential worker flying still
- a lot of VFR, flying home, some small interest in vacation travelers.
- trying to see the protocols from Caribbean countries in opening back up
- business coming back slowly
- Thinks people will get confused by quarantine rules, so will stay close to home for their travel.
- TATL will happen later 2021 (rather than late 2021, so maybe sooner than Q4) and see demand coming back next year. So maybe they will try next summer.
- see bright path into London airports
- will be smaller and trying to not do any furlough
- 14k out of 23k staff have taken some form of voluntary time off
- thinks mint will bounce back strongly
- leisure market that's once per day will be sub-daily. Doesn't see withdrawing from any city.

I don't know if I believe the last part in not leaving any airport. I think there is a few that they don't need to stay in. As for furlough, I hope it doesn't happen. I don't know enough about labor contracts to know if the cost of furlough at JetBlue is lower than in legacy airlines (who have been making decisions based on demand next Q3 rather than end of this year). If cost of furlough at JetBlue is close to legacies, then they might not furlough if they expect to be 90% of their pre-COVID size by next summer. And so much of what they do is dependent on their legacy competitors. if they continue their current trend of bringing back NYC/BOS really slowly, that might give JetBlue more room at some of these routes to bring back capacity more quickly. It would seem to me that smaller airlines like JetBlue that depend so much on 2 or 3 population centers would have a harder time to plan their future size in this type of recovery.


Furlough costs will naturally be much smaller at a carrier like B6 vs DL since there aren’t as many different fleet types to shuffle around staffing and training costs, but it would be a big benefit to keep frontline employees on the property so they can be positioned to flex capacity up and down as the recovery progresses. There is more risk of a small carrier like B6 not being able to spool up fast enough to meet demand vs letting another competitor get a foothold in a key market.


B6 effectively have three fleet types and relatively generous furlough language in the pilot contract. On a relative basis, it would be much more expensive than WN/NK/F9, but somewhat less than DL.


Yes, single fleet makes it cheaper to furlough, and if B6 was serious about a furlough I am sure they would announce a permanent parking of the 190s to prevent pilots from displacing into those seats. Say they announce this in 4Q 2020, they could park the fleet slowly over the remainder of 2021 which would force the pilots into the 320 instead. There would be relatively few A220 seats to displace into for 2021, and those were always planned to be full transitions anyways since it is a new frame.
 
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jfklganyc
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Thu May 21, 2020 9:53 pm

1700 FLIGHT SEGMENTS ADDED for June on top of 30 percent schedule. Dropping into open time over last few days
 
unusualattitude
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Thu May 21, 2020 10:14 pm

jfklganyc wrote:
1700 FLIGHT SEGMENTS ADDED for June on top of 30 percent schedule. Dropping into open time over last few days


Not added, these have been for sale on JetBlue.com and in the GDS the whole time. They were just withheld from the crews trying to bid them. No change to the published schedules, just playing with the employee groups.
 
tphuang
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Thu May 21, 2020 10:26 pm

I don't know if those flight segments are existing ones or new ones, but I took a look right now on NYC to STI on June 26th and already 3 out of 6 flights are sold out of Blue Basic tickets. It seems like this would be a good time to add more flights to DR. I'm sure they are noticing other routes that are hitting this 2/3 occupancy pretty quickly too.
 
caribny
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Fri May 22, 2020 3:29 pm

tphuang wrote:
I don't know if those flight segments are existing ones or new ones, but I took a look right now on NYC to STI on June 26th and already 3 out of 6 flights are sold out of Blue Basic tickets. It seems like this would be a good time to add more flights to DR. I'm sure they are noticing other routes that are hitting this 2/3 occupancy pretty quickly too.



Of course the DR has 2/3 of the Covid19 cases in the entire Caribbean, despite having just over 25% of the population. I wonder how that will impact leisure travel once that recovers.
 
CobaltScar
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Joined: Thu Mar 23, 2017 2:30 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Fri May 22, 2020 3:35 pm

caribny wrote:
tphuang wrote:
I don't know if those flight segments are existing ones or new ones, but I took a look right now on NYC to STI on June 26th and already 3 out of 6 flights are sold out of Blue Basic tickets. It seems like this would be a good time to add more flights to DR. I'm sure they are noticing other routes that are hitting this 2/3 occupancy pretty quickly too.



Of course the DR has 2/3 of the Covid19 cases in the entire Caribbean, despite having just over 25% of the population. I wonder how that will impact leisure travel once that recovers.



DR has more Covid than Haiti? Surprising.
 
tphuang
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Fri May 22, 2020 4:55 pm

caribny wrote:
tphuang wrote:
I don't know if those flight segments are existing ones or new ones, but I took a look right now on NYC to STI on June 26th and already 3 out of 6 flights are sold out of Blue Basic tickets. It seems like this would be a good time to add more flights to DR. I'm sure they are noticing other routes that are hitting this 2/3 occupancy pretty quickly too.



Of course the DR has 2/3 of the Covid19 cases in the entire Caribbean, despite having just over 25% of the population. I wonder how that will impact leisure travel once that recovers.


If you look at the numbers, the curve have been flattened in NY.

The tests they've done show that by May 1, 20% of NYC population had already been infected and the mortality rate really isn't as scary as people make it out to be. And i'm sure by now, the infection rate is higher and even higher amongst the PR/DR expat population. I mean there is a lot of people that already got it so it's not a risk for them to travel or people around them. Antibody testing is going to be widely available for people to take soon.

At some point, certain communities in NYC will be close to herd immunity and we are going to get close to that point before other cities/states. If you look at infection rates among states, NY/NJ/CT/MA are the 4 highest in the country. Getting it sooner also means you get out of it sooner. I believe the worst is already over unless reinfection is a big issue.
 
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STT757
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Fri May 22, 2020 5:20 pm

tphuang wrote:
caribny wrote:
tphuang wrote:
I don't know if those flight segments are existing ones or new ones, but I took a look right now on NYC to STI on June 26th and already 3 out of 6 flights are sold out of Blue Basic tickets. It seems like this would be a good time to add more flights to DR. I'm sure they are noticing other routes that are hitting this 2/3 occupancy pretty quickly too.



Of course the DR has 2/3 of the Covid19 cases in the entire Caribbean, despite having just over 25% of the population. I wonder how that will impact leisure travel once that recovers.


If you look at the numbers, the curve have been flattened in NY.

The tests they've done show that by May 1, 20% of NYC population had already been infected and the mortality rate really isn't as scary as people make it out to be. And i'm sure by now, the infection rate is higher and even higher amongst the PR/DR expat population. I mean there is a lot of people that already got it so it's not a risk for them to travel or people around them. Antibody testing is going to be widely available for people to take soon.

At some point, certain communities in NYC will be close to herd immunity and we are going to get close to that point before other cities/states. If you look at infection rates among states, NY/NJ/CT/MA are the 4 highest in the country. Getting it sooner also means you get out of it sooner. I believe the worst is already over unless reinfection is a big issue.


Nothing substantial is going to happen in regards to a recovery in the airline industry until either there's a vaccine or the feared second wave doesn't materialize. I think the latter is the most likely scenario. If cases just stay at a low level and nothing pops up I think you will see a start to a real recovery in January. And if a second wave doesn't materialize in January that will build to a rebound for spring break traffic, which will build towards a rebound into next Summer. However International traffic may still lag behind, and economic damage done may mean a return to 2019 levels might not be until the second half of the decade.
Eastern Air lines flt # 701, EWR-MCO Boeing 757
 
n2dru
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Fri May 22, 2020 6:20 pm

CobaltScar wrote:
caribny wrote:
tphuang wrote:
I don't know if those flight segments are existing ones or new ones, but I took a look right now on NYC to STI on June 26th and already 3 out of 6 flights are sold out of Blue Basic tickets. It seems like this would be a good time to add more flights to DR. I'm sure they are noticing other routes that are hitting this 2/3 occupancy pretty quickly too.



Of course the DR has 2/3 of the Covid19 cases in the entire Caribbean, despite having just over 25% of the population. I wonder how that will impact leisure travel once that recovers.



DR has more Covid than Haiti? Surprising.


Why is it surprising?
 
CobaltScar
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Fri May 22, 2020 7:42 pm

n2dru wrote:
CobaltScar wrote:
caribny wrote:


Of course the DR has 2/3 of the Covid19 cases in the entire Caribbean, despite having just over 25% of the population. I wonder how that will impact leisure travel once that recovers.



DR has more Covid than Haiti? Surprising.


Why is it surprising?


Because Haiti is the poorest country in the western hemisphere and usually leads the region in all things bad.
 
tphuang
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sat May 23, 2020 1:40 am

More service exemptions for JetBlue (other airlines go similar exemptions) include ABQ, PSP, SMF, SRQ, ORH. I'm quite surprised they picked SRQ and not RNO. Maybe they think there is still some traffic from LGB to RNO. Given that northeast to Florida is one of the first to return, I'm not sure the rationale in stopping service to SRQ.
 
n2dru
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sat May 23, 2020 2:36 am

CobaltScar wrote:
n2dru wrote:
CobaltScar wrote:


DR has more Covid than Haiti? Surprising.


Why is it surprising?


Because Haiti is the poorest country in the western hemisphere and usually leads the region in all things bad.


Leads the region in all things bad is a blanket statement. DR has had its fair share of bad publicity/events in the not too distant past if you care to remember.
 
tphuang
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sun May 24, 2020 1:29 pm

From OAG this week, was surprised to see some of the trims by B6 for June in light of the discussion of added flights. A lot of the trims (especially out of JFK) are just international destinations starting later. Other cuts are some BOS business market trims. Should be more in line with expected demand.

Other than that, there are some cuts by other airlines which I'm sure will make things a little easier for B6.

Looks like AS is cutting JFK/BOS-LAX further out, which means they probably will come back more slowly if at all. Not a total surprise given their weaknesses here.

DL's cuts are in for July. If you are B6, you will be very happy about what at 25 to 30% schedule looks like for Delta in July.

JFK/LGA even with some more capacity back has just a total of 83 flights, including just 36 out of JFK. TATL flights are obviously at a minimum and feeder flights are non-existent. Even the beyond perimeter business flights are very minimal from what I can see.
Nothing to AUS. Just 1x to SAN/LAS each
Just 2x to SFO and 4x to LAX

The VFR stuff is minimal too with just 1 flight each to SJU/STI/SDQ, which should allow B6 to aggressively add back capacity here.

From this, I think as long as TATL demand is weak, DL will have a hard time to even utilizing their own slots next year let alone claiming slots that become available. if DL's running a 70% schedule by next summer, let's say it gets back to over 250 flights a day out of LGA (5 times as much as now), it would seem to be really hard for them to get to anywhere close to the 230 flights a day they had been running out of JFK or even close to 200 (which is probably what's needed to utilize 80% of their slots).

Out of BOS, DL is stuck at just 23 flights a day with only 1x daily to MCO/TPA as non-hub flights. Again, with TATL demand most likely consolidating at JFK, I don't see how DL bringing back BOS to even 80 flights a day by end of next year.

We will see over the summer if B6 tries to add back flights more quickly to some of these markets where DL is not eager to compete in. Maybe they can add enough capacity back to get DL to drop a good chunk of them.
 
727LOVER
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sun May 24, 2020 2:12 pm

tphuang wrote:
More service exemptions for JetBlue (other airlines go similar exemptions) include ABQ, PSP, SMF, SRQ, ORH. I'm quite surprised they picked SRQ and not RNO. Maybe they think there is still some traffic from LGB to RNO. Given that northeast to Florida is one of the first to return, I'm not sure the rationale in stopping service to SRQ.



I am confused.....so they are leaving both SRQ & TPA?

https://simpleflying.com/jetblue-service-exemptions/


By the way, what you are stating....is there a link? I can't find this.
"We must accept finite disappointment, but never lose infinite hope." - Martin Luther King, Jr.
 
tphuang
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sun May 24, 2020 2:14 pm

727LOVER wrote:
tphuang wrote:
More service exemptions for JetBlue (other airlines go similar exemptions) include ABQ, PSP, SMF, SRQ, ORH. I'm quite surprised they picked SRQ and not RNO. Maybe they think there is still some traffic from LGB to RNO. Given that northeast to Florida is one of the first to return, I'm not sure the rationale in stopping service to SRQ.



I am confused.....so they are leaving both SRQ & TPA?

https://simpleflying.com/jetblue-service-exemptions/


By the way, what you are stating....is there a link? I can't find this.

They are not leaving tpa. They still serve there multiple times a day. It was just requested to give them schedule flexibility in case things stay bad. I would think ord would come back for July.
 
727LOVER
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sun May 24, 2020 3:21 pm

Again I'll ask...do you have a link? Where are you reading this?

All I could find was THIS from about 2 weeks ago

BZN, ABQ, PSP, RNO, SMF

https://paxex.aero/2020/05/cares-act-ai ... ion-rules/


I'm not doubting you...just trying to get confirmation.
"We must accept finite disappointment, but never lose infinite hope." - Martin Luther King, Jr.
 
ericm2031
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sun May 24, 2020 4:37 pm

727LOVER wrote:
Again I'll ask...do you have a link? Where are you reading this?

All I could find was THIS from about 2 weeks ago

BZN, ABQ, PSP, RNO, SMF

https://paxex.aero/2020/05/cares-act-ai ... ion-rules/


I'm not doubting you...just trying to get confirmation.


I think this is what you're asking for?

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-heal ... um=twitter
 
njeinaz
Posts: 2
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sun May 24, 2020 4:37 pm

Full list of the most recently approved exemptions at: https://downloads.regulations.gov/DOT-OST-2020-0037-0175/attachment_1.pdf.

727LOVER wrote:
Again I'll ask...do you have a link? Where are you reading this?

All I could find was THIS from about 2 weeks ago

BZN, ABQ, PSP, RNO, SMF

https://paxex.aero/2020/05/cares-act-ai ... ion-rules/


I'm not doubting you...just trying to get confirmation.
 
727LOVER
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sun May 24, 2020 5:08 pm

Yes...thank you

I had just found this one:
https://liveandletsfly.com/cares-act-ro ... MGuvUziocs
"We must accept finite disappointment, but never lose infinite hope." - Martin Luther King, Jr.
 
flyby519
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Mon May 25, 2020 12:36 am

tphuang wrote:
From this, I think as long as TATL demand is weak, DL will have a hard time to even utilizing their own slots next year let alone claiming slots that become available. if DL's running a 70% schedule by next summer, let's say it gets back to over 250 flights a day out of LGA (5 times as much as now), it would seem to be really hard for them to get to anywhere close to the 230 flights a day they had been running out of JFK or even close to 200 (which is probably what's needed to utilize 80% of their slots).


Wait til DL brings in the zerg army of RJs to squat on slots.
 
tphuang
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Mon May 25, 2020 1:35 am

flyby519 wrote:
tphuang wrote:
From this, I think as long as TATL demand is weak, DL will have a hard time to even utilizing their own slots next year let alone claiming slots that become available. if DL's running a 70% schedule by next summer, let's say it gets back to over 250 flights a day out of LGA (5 times as much as now), it would seem to be really hard for them to get to anywhere close to the 230 flights a day they had been running out of JFK or even close to 200 (which is probably what's needed to utilize 80% of their slots).


Wait til DL brings in the zerg army of RJs to squat on slots.


They can certainly do that an I do anticipate seeing them do that out of LGA. But they were already flying RJs for most of these routes pre-COVID. So this would force them to basically retain capacity at LGA (maybe they can drop by 10 to 20% through less aggressive usage of slots and some downgauging, but only to a degree). And out at JFK, they can only do limited downgauging if competing B6 service are all on much lower cost mainline aircraft. And with reduced mainline flying, there will be reduced RJ flying also. MSP/DTW/SLC are all going to see downgauging to maintain frequencies on business routes. If LGA/JFK gets more RJs, that will mean less RJs available for BOS.
 
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jfklganyc
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Mon May 25, 2020 2:51 am

tphuang wrote:
flyby519 wrote:
tphuang wrote:
From this, I think as long as TATL demand is weak, DL will have a hard time to even utilizing their own slots next year let alone claiming slots that become available. if DL's running a 70% schedule by next summer, let's say it gets back to over 250 flights a day out of LGA (5 times as much as now), it would seem to be really hard for them to get to anywhere close to the 230 flights a day they had been running out of JFK or even close to 200 (which is probably what's needed to utilize 80% of their slots).


Wait til DL brings in the zerg army of RJs to squat on slots.


They can certainly do that an I do anticipate seeing them do that out of LGA. But they were already flying RJs for most of these routes pre-COVID. So this would force them to basically retain capacity at LGA (maybe they can drop by 10 to 20% through less aggressive usage of slots and some downgauging, but only to a degree). And out at JFK, they can only do limited downgauging if competing B6 service are all on much lower cost mainline aircraft. And with reduced mainline flying, there will be reduced RJ flying also. MSP/DTW/SLC are all going to see downgauging to maintain frequencies on business routes. If LGA/JFK gets more RJs, that will mean less RJs available for BOS.



Boston is done.
 
tphuang
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Mon May 25, 2020 4:56 pm

Fair enough on Boston.

Now onto JFK. I wonder what the terminal situation will look like. I'm assuming JetBlue's T6/7 project will get delayed to save money. T5 is probably large enough to run all of their operation even if they were over 200 flights a day, but I would imagine they have ambition more than that. I would guess IAG's operation is never coming back to T7. I'm not sure if T8 is large enough to fit in IAG and AS in a couple of years. But it seems like JetBlue would be able to start work on T7 before 2023 if they were to start construction again.
 
Nicknuzzii
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Mon May 25, 2020 5:18 pm

tphuang wrote:
Fair enough on Boston.

Now onto JFK. I wonder what the terminal situation will look like. I'm assuming JetBlue's T6/7 project will get delayed to save money. T5 is probably large enough to run all of their operation even if they were over 200 flights a day, but I would imagine they have ambition more than that. I would guess IAG's operation is never coming back to T7. I'm not sure if T8 is large enough to fit in IAG and AS in a couple of years. But it seems like JetBlue would be able to start work on T7 before 2023 if they were to start construction again.


I think basically anyone who needs a home can find space in the T8. The facility has 26 (?) gates and should be able to handle around 170 flights a day. AA was at 100 prior to this and I don’t see them getting above 75 anytime soon.

I’m also not sure how strong AS future at JFK is. They are not leaving anytime soon but it seems they will be reverting back more towards the AS legacy routes and may trim some of VS LAX/SFO runs. Are they even competitive in this market? They would be better off competing solely against UA from EWR and gain those pax. This is most likely why they are still showing EWR - LAX at more than 1x daily.
 
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jfklganyc
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Mon May 25, 2020 10:09 pm

I also believe BA at T7 is done. T7 will remain vacant until it is demolished for B6 expansion

AS cutting LAX from JFK is alarming. What future do they have here? Not sure anymore

Lots of slots available now...no need to stick around just to stick around
 
flyby519
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Mon May 25, 2020 11:32 pm

Slot usage waiver goes til Oct 24th, so I suppose that is when the cuts will really mean something:

https://www.faa.gov/news/media/attachme ... -04-09.pdf
 
tphuang
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Wed May 27, 2020 11:57 am

I really doubt they will end slot waivers in Oct. Probably happen sometime next year. If they end it in Oct, there is going to be a lot of LGA/DCA slots becoming available next year. But let's see what happens. My position is that not only will AA be returning JFK slots, DL will also not be meeting its slot usage requirements at JFK when the slot waiver ends.

Anyhow, update on JetBlue's network planning
https://paxex.aero/2020/05/jetblue-rest ... tinations/
Not really a surprising on the international flights coming back, since we already saw that in the OAG updates. I dug through some of their scheduling, it seems like most of the non-VFR stuff is 2 to 4x weekly. Only JFK/EWR-SDQ/STI/SJU/PAP are daily or multi-daily. Back to running 2x A321s + 2x A320s on JFK-SDQ/STI.

The news about domestic flying for July is interesting too. Looks like they added back all the major cities they discontinued for May/June + PVD and PSE/BQN. I'm not surprised at all about PVD to Florida and PR VFR, but a little surprised they are bringing back DFW/IAH/MSP so soon. Probably a combination to demand recovering + need to restore their full network.

So the remaining discontinued domestic airports are
LGA/HPN/BWI/SWF/SJC/BUR/ONT/ORH/ABQ/PSP/SMF/SRQ

Of those, I'd bring back LGA/BWI first.

And looks like ACK/MVY might come back in July. That's good. Assuming these places open up by then, should be one of the most in demand places for New Yorkers to go to. I'd imagine PWM would have a lot of demand too if they bring it back in July/August.

With this many stations coming back, it seems like they will be flying more than 30% of their capacity for July. Maybe they can get to 40 to 50% of pre-COVID flying out of JFK/BOS on peak days.

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