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tphuang
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sun May 24, 2020 1:29 pm

From OAG this week, was surprised to see some of the trims by B6 for June in light of the discussion of added flights. A lot of the trims (especially out of JFK) are just international destinations starting later. Other cuts are some BOS business market trims. Should be more in line with expected demand.

Other than that, there are some cuts by other airlines which I'm sure will make things a little easier for B6.

Looks like AS is cutting JFK/BOS-LAX further out, which means they probably will come back more slowly if at all. Not a total surprise given their weaknesses here.

DL's cuts are in for July. If you are B6, you will be very happy about what at 25 to 30% schedule looks like for Delta in July.

JFK/LGA even with some more capacity back has just a total of 83 flights, including just 36 out of JFK. TATL flights are obviously at a minimum and feeder flights are non-existent. Even the beyond perimeter business flights are very minimal from what I can see.
Nothing to AUS. Just 1x to SAN/LAS each
Just 2x to SFO and 4x to LAX

The VFR stuff is minimal too with just 1 flight each to SJU/STI/SDQ, which should allow B6 to aggressively add back capacity here.

From this, I think as long as TATL demand is weak, DL will have a hard time to even utilizing their own slots next year let alone claiming slots that become available. if DL's running a 70% schedule by next summer, let's say it gets back to over 250 flights a day out of LGA (5 times as much as now), it would seem to be really hard for them to get to anywhere close to the 230 flights a day they had been running out of JFK or even close to 200 (which is probably what's needed to utilize 80% of their slots).

Out of BOS, DL is stuck at just 23 flights a day with only 1x daily to MCO/TPA as non-hub flights. Again, with TATL demand most likely consolidating at JFK, I don't see how DL bringing back BOS to even 80 flights a day by end of next year.

We will see over the summer if B6 tries to add back flights more quickly to some of these markets where DL is not eager to compete in. Maybe they can add enough capacity back to get DL to drop a good chunk of them.
 
727LOVER
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sun May 24, 2020 2:12 pm

tphuang wrote:
More service exemptions for JetBlue (other airlines go similar exemptions) include ABQ, PSP, SMF, SRQ, ORH. I'm quite surprised they picked SRQ and not RNO. Maybe they think there is still some traffic from LGB to RNO. Given that northeast to Florida is one of the first to return, I'm not sure the rationale in stopping service to SRQ.



I am confused.....so they are leaving both SRQ & TPA?

https://simpleflying.com/jetblue-service-exemptions/


By the way, what you are stating....is there a link? I can't find this.
"We must accept finite disappointment, but never lose infinite hope." - Martin Luther King, Jr.
 
tphuang
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sun May 24, 2020 2:14 pm

727LOVER wrote:
tphuang wrote:
More service exemptions for JetBlue (other airlines go similar exemptions) include ABQ, PSP, SMF, SRQ, ORH. I'm quite surprised they picked SRQ and not RNO. Maybe they think there is still some traffic from LGB to RNO. Given that northeast to Florida is one of the first to return, I'm not sure the rationale in stopping service to SRQ.



I am confused.....so they are leaving both SRQ & TPA?

https://simpleflying.com/jetblue-service-exemptions/


By the way, what you are stating....is there a link? I can't find this.

They are not leaving tpa. They still serve there multiple times a day. It was just requested to give them schedule flexibility in case things stay bad. I would think ord would come back for July.
 
727LOVER
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sun May 24, 2020 3:21 pm

Again I'll ask...do you have a link? Where are you reading this?

All I could find was THIS from about 2 weeks ago

BZN, ABQ, PSP, RNO, SMF

https://paxex.aero/2020/05/cares-act-ai ... ion-rules/


I'm not doubting you...just trying to get confirmation.
"We must accept finite disappointment, but never lose infinite hope." - Martin Luther King, Jr.
 
ericm2031
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sun May 24, 2020 4:37 pm

727LOVER wrote:
Again I'll ask...do you have a link? Where are you reading this?

All I could find was THIS from about 2 weeks ago

BZN, ABQ, PSP, RNO, SMF

https://paxex.aero/2020/05/cares-act-ai ... ion-rules/


I'm not doubting you...just trying to get confirmation.


I think this is what you're asking for?

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-heal ... um=twitter
 
njeinaz
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sun May 24, 2020 4:37 pm

Full list of the most recently approved exemptions at: https://downloads.regulations.gov/DOT-OST-2020-0037-0175/attachment_1.pdf.

727LOVER wrote:
Again I'll ask...do you have a link? Where are you reading this?

All I could find was THIS from about 2 weeks ago

BZN, ABQ, PSP, RNO, SMF

https://paxex.aero/2020/05/cares-act-ai ... ion-rules/


I'm not doubting you...just trying to get confirmation.
 
727LOVER
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sun May 24, 2020 5:08 pm

Yes...thank you

I had just found this one:
https://liveandletsfly.com/cares-act-ro ... MGuvUziocs
"We must accept finite disappointment, but never lose infinite hope." - Martin Luther King, Jr.
 
flyby519
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Mon May 25, 2020 12:36 am

tphuang wrote:
From this, I think as long as TATL demand is weak, DL will have a hard time to even utilizing their own slots next year let alone claiming slots that become available. if DL's running a 70% schedule by next summer, let's say it gets back to over 250 flights a day out of LGA (5 times as much as now), it would seem to be really hard for them to get to anywhere close to the 230 flights a day they had been running out of JFK or even close to 200 (which is probably what's needed to utilize 80% of their slots).


Wait til DL brings in the zerg army of RJs to squat on slots.
 
tphuang
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Mon May 25, 2020 1:35 am

flyby519 wrote:
tphuang wrote:
From this, I think as long as TATL demand is weak, DL will have a hard time to even utilizing their own slots next year let alone claiming slots that become available. if DL's running a 70% schedule by next summer, let's say it gets back to over 250 flights a day out of LGA (5 times as much as now), it would seem to be really hard for them to get to anywhere close to the 230 flights a day they had been running out of JFK or even close to 200 (which is probably what's needed to utilize 80% of their slots).


Wait til DL brings in the zerg army of RJs to squat on slots.


They can certainly do that an I do anticipate seeing them do that out of LGA. But they were already flying RJs for most of these routes pre-COVID. So this would force them to basically retain capacity at LGA (maybe they can drop by 10 to 20% through less aggressive usage of slots and some downgauging, but only to a degree). And out at JFK, they can only do limited downgauging if competing B6 service are all on much lower cost mainline aircraft. And with reduced mainline flying, there will be reduced RJ flying also. MSP/DTW/SLC are all going to see downgauging to maintain frequencies on business routes. If LGA/JFK gets more RJs, that will mean less RJs available for BOS.
 
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jfklganyc
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Mon May 25, 2020 2:51 am

tphuang wrote:
flyby519 wrote:
tphuang wrote:
From this, I think as long as TATL demand is weak, DL will have a hard time to even utilizing their own slots next year let alone claiming slots that become available. if DL's running a 70% schedule by next summer, let's say it gets back to over 250 flights a day out of LGA (5 times as much as now), it would seem to be really hard for them to get to anywhere close to the 230 flights a day they had been running out of JFK or even close to 200 (which is probably what's needed to utilize 80% of their slots).


Wait til DL brings in the zerg army of RJs to squat on slots.


They can certainly do that an I do anticipate seeing them do that out of LGA. But they were already flying RJs for most of these routes pre-COVID. So this would force them to basically retain capacity at LGA (maybe they can drop by 10 to 20% through less aggressive usage of slots and some downgauging, but only to a degree). And out at JFK, they can only do limited downgauging if competing B6 service are all on much lower cost mainline aircraft. And with reduced mainline flying, there will be reduced RJ flying also. MSP/DTW/SLC are all going to see downgauging to maintain frequencies on business routes. If LGA/JFK gets more RJs, that will mean less RJs available for BOS.



Boston is done.
 
tphuang
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Mon May 25, 2020 4:56 pm

Fair enough on Boston.

Now onto JFK. I wonder what the terminal situation will look like. I'm assuming JetBlue's T6/7 project will get delayed to save money. T5 is probably large enough to run all of their operation even if they were over 200 flights a day, but I would imagine they have ambition more than that. I would guess IAG's operation is never coming back to T7. I'm not sure if T8 is large enough to fit in IAG and AS in a couple of years. But it seems like JetBlue would be able to start work on T7 before 2023 if they were to start construction again.
 
Nicknuzzii
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Mon May 25, 2020 5:18 pm

tphuang wrote:
Fair enough on Boston.

Now onto JFK. I wonder what the terminal situation will look like. I'm assuming JetBlue's T6/7 project will get delayed to save money. T5 is probably large enough to run all of their operation even if they were over 200 flights a day, but I would imagine they have ambition more than that. I would guess IAG's operation is never coming back to T7. I'm not sure if T8 is large enough to fit in IAG and AS in a couple of years. But it seems like JetBlue would be able to start work on T7 before 2023 if they were to start construction again.


I think basically anyone who needs a home can find space in the T8. The facility has 26 (?) gates and should be able to handle around 170 flights a day. AA was at 100 prior to this and I don’t see them getting above 75 anytime soon.

I’m also not sure how strong AS future at JFK is. They are not leaving anytime soon but it seems they will be reverting back more towards the AS legacy routes and may trim some of VS LAX/SFO runs. Are they even competitive in this market? They would be better off competing solely against UA from EWR and gain those pax. This is most likely why they are still showing EWR - LAX at more than 1x daily.
 
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jfklganyc
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Mon May 25, 2020 10:09 pm

I also believe BA at T7 is done. T7 will remain vacant until it is demolished for B6 expansion

AS cutting LAX from JFK is alarming. What future do they have here? Not sure anymore

Lots of slots available now...no need to stick around just to stick around
 
flyby519
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Mon May 25, 2020 11:32 pm

Slot usage waiver goes til Oct 24th, so I suppose that is when the cuts will really mean something:

https://www.faa.gov/news/media/attachme ... -04-09.pdf
 
tphuang
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Wed May 27, 2020 11:57 am

I really doubt they will end slot waivers in Oct. Probably happen sometime next year. If they end it in Oct, there is going to be a lot of LGA/DCA slots becoming available next year. But let's see what happens. My position is that not only will AA be returning JFK slots, DL will also not be meeting its slot usage requirements at JFK when the slot waiver ends.

Anyhow, update on JetBlue's network planning
https://paxex.aero/2020/05/jetblue-rest ... tinations/
Not really a surprising on the international flights coming back, since we already saw that in the OAG updates. I dug through some of their scheduling, it seems like most of the non-VFR stuff is 2 to 4x weekly. Only JFK/EWR-SDQ/STI/SJU/PAP are daily or multi-daily. Back to running 2x A321s + 2x A320s on JFK-SDQ/STI.

The news about domestic flying for July is interesting too. Looks like they added back all the major cities they discontinued for May/June + PVD and PSE/BQN. I'm not surprised at all about PVD to Florida and PR VFR, but a little surprised they are bringing back DFW/IAH/MSP so soon. Probably a combination to demand recovering + need to restore their full network.

So the remaining discontinued domestic airports are
LGA/HPN/BWI/SWF/SJC/BUR/ONT/ORH/ABQ/PSP/SMF/SRQ

Of those, I'd bring back LGA/BWI first.

And looks like ACK/MVY might come back in July. That's good. Assuming these places open up by then, should be one of the most in demand places for New Yorkers to go to. I'd imagine PWM would have a lot of demand too if they bring it back in July/August.

With this many stations coming back, it seems like they will be flying more than 30% of their capacity for July. Maybe they can get to 40 to 50% of pre-COVID flying out of JFK/BOS on peak days.
 
RL757PVD
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Wed May 27, 2020 2:41 pm

Traditionally PVD-Florida is one of their highest average fares outside of BOS/NYC/BDL so its nice and encouraging to see JetBlue return when they have no obligation to.
Experience is what you get when what you thought would work out didn't!
 
Planeboy17
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Wed May 27, 2020 3:16 pm

[quote="tphuang"]I.
I'd imagine PWM would have a lot of demand too if they bring it back in July/August.

They stated PWM will not return in 2020. Obviously in this environment things can change but this was part of the release.
 
tphuang
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Wed May 27, 2020 3:22 pm

Planeboy17 wrote:
They stated PWM will not return in 2020. Obviously in this environment things can change but this was part of the release.


Well, I guess their booking data must be showing less interest in PWM. Did they share anything else not mentioned in that article like what % of schedule they are flying?
 
B6BOSfan
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Wed May 27, 2020 8:58 pm

Always a bit leery looking at these B6 plans. I was all set to book BOS-JAX -- and poof -- the flight went away.
 
tphuang
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Wed May 27, 2020 10:04 pm

B6BOSfan wrote:
Always a bit leery looking at these B6 plans. I was all set to book BOS-JAX -- and poof -- the flight went away.


They definitely cut things to barebones from late April to now, but TSA numbers are up quite a bit off the floors 3 or 4 times more. And by July, things should be even better since economy is opening up. I'm sure going forward, they will fly to all these places they cut off the map before.
 
mjgbtv
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Wed May 27, 2020 11:17 pm

tphuang wrote:
Planeboy17 wrote:
They stated PWM will not return in 2020. Obviously in this environment things can change but this was part of the release.


Well, I guess their booking data must be showing less interest in PWM. Did they share anything else not mentioned in that article like what % of schedule they are flying?


Maine has a 14-day quarantine in effect for out of state visitors. That is probably deterring some potential bookings.
 
tphuang
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Thu May 28, 2020 11:17 pm

From southwest schedule extension, looks like at a minimum WN is cutting the following routes which they compete with B6 on.
BOS-HOU
FLL-LAS/RDU
and added LGB-AUS.

Supposedly, they want to increase DEN/PHX/BNA/LAS by 10% next year. I doubt that's happening. But it's a good thing for JetBlue that WN with its huge cash pile has no interest in any of the places that B6 is working hard on.

B6 did well on both FLL-LAS/RDU prior to COVID, so these should be routes they can bring back this year. My guess is DL is also going to permanently cut FLL-RDU.
 
tphuang
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sat May 30, 2020 12:22 pm

I listened to Robin Hayes interview with Washington Post and Bloomberg this morning. From what I can gather
- Expecting A320 reconfig to resume when demand comes back and they need more planes. Expect all reconfigs to be done in a couple of years.
- Says they will definitely be smaller in Q4, but has not said anything about being smaller next year.
- Again, said they will try to achieve right sizing for the lower demand period through voluntary time off.
- So I think they are preparing to be back to pre-COVID size or close to it next summer vs 30% reduction that legacies are probably going to make.
- Thinks TATL demand will rebound quite a bit toward second half of next year, so sounds like aiming for a late June start time. Vs previously probably sometime in March.
- Again, expect leisure to come back pretty quickly, especially on domestic side.
- Business travel to be a lot slower due to economic situation
- On markets like BOS-DCA, expecting to fly 5 or 6 times a day instead of 15x like pre-COVID. So my guess is that a lot of these short haul business destinations out of BOS will see fewer flights for a while. My guess is that they go back to pre-COVID schedule only when slot waiver ends.

My guess is that a lot of within perimeter LGA demand that depends on business travellers won't come back to anywhere near pre-COVID capacity when slot waiver ends. I think DL will probably just take the losses at LGA to not lose any slots, but will not use anywhere close to # of its slot holdings at JFK (if there is still slot in place at JFK at all). I think UA will consolidate at EWR and fly minimally out of LGA. AA will be a lot smaller at JFK/LGA.
 
DeltaRules
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sat May 30, 2020 2:23 pm

tphuang wrote:
From southwest schedule extension, looks like at a minimum WN is cutting the following routes which they compete with B6 on.
BOS-HOU
FLL-LAS/RDU
and added LGB-AUS.

Supposedly, they want to increase DEN/PHX/BNA/LAS by 10% next year. I doubt that's happening. But it's a good thing for JetBlue that WN with its huge cash pile has no interest in any of the places that B6 is working hard on.

B6 did well on both FLL-LAS/RDU prior to COVID, so these should be routes they can bring back this year. My guess is DL is also going to permanently cut FLL-RDU.


They're also dropping BOS-CMH, which would be an opportunity for B6 to return if they were up to it.
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jplatts
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sat May 30, 2020 4:38 pm

DeltaRules wrote:
They're also dropping BOS-CMH, which would be an opportunity for B6 to return if they were up to it.


I agree that B6 re-entering CMH is a possibility, especially with (a) WN dropping BOS-CMH nonstop service, (b) B6 having previously served CMH, (c) B6 serving ORD, CLE, DTW, and MSP in the Midwest, and (d) B6 having already re-entered other destinations that it previously pulled out of such as ATL and BNA.
 
flyby519
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sat May 30, 2020 5:47 pm

tphuang wrote:

My guess is that a lot of within perimeter LGA demand that depends on business travellers won't come back to anywhere near pre-COVID capacity when slot waiver ends. I think DL will probably just take the losses at LGA to not lose any slots, but will not use anywhere close to # of its slot holdings at JFK (if there is still slot in place at JFK at all). I think UA will consolidate at EWR and fly minimally out of LGA. AA will be a lot smaller at JFK/LGA.


Does anyone think it is possible the FAA could downgrade all Level 3 airports into Level 2 and manage schedules as demand increases?
 
tphuang
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sun May 31, 2020 1:27 am

A little more on WN's "full schedule" that they rolled out for December. I think it will get trimmed as we get closer, but at least this shows how they intend to remake their network. It's quite interesting to see how much they cut at FLL.

https://thepointsguy.com/news/southwest ... -schedule/
"The city most affected by Southwest’s route cuts is Fort Lauderdale (FLL). The airline will end all but two international routes — to Cancun (CUN) and Montego Bay (MBJ) — as well as nonstop service to Birmingham (BHM), Boston (BOS), Cleveland (CLE), Jacksonville (JAX), Hartford (BDL), Las Vegas (LAS), Long Island MacArthur (ISP) and Louisville (SDF)."

Now, quite a few domestic cuts like BOS/CLE are routes they are already down to 1x weekly one, so it's not a big deal. But other routes not mentioned here like RDU/BUF/ALB/PVD are all down to 1x weekly for daily or even more than once a day from a year ago.

On the other hand, they are back up to 11x daily to BWI and 4x daily to BNA. Given the departure of so many international routes, this looks to be a conscious decision to give up on their attempt of making FLL a Latam gateway and turning it into a large out station. The east coast (especially northeast) to South Florida traffic is now all going through their main Northeast hub of BWI or their main southeast stations at BNA/ATL.

I think it will be a slow recovery for B6 at FLL given the openings at NYC/BOS, but this will give them less competition for the medium to higher end customer base.

Given that B6 started off with WN model, it's kind of interesting to see how different they are right now.

Just this update alone, WN cut LAX-ATL/PIT/TPA and OAk-ATL/MCO and SAN-ATL/MCO/TPA. They continue to build up mid-continent stations while cutting out longer ranged flights. In comparison, B6 is so heavily invested in the transcon market. Their likely future LAX strategy is dependent on transcon market. In general, it seems like they are becoming less and less like competitors with all these moves. Even the customer types they are chasing would be different. Imo, that's a good thing.
 
tphuang
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sun May 31, 2020 2:06 pm

From OAG thread, looks like they've put in their major July cuts. There might be a couple of smaller adjustments later, but should be more or less like this.
Took schedule of July20th.
BOS - 72 flights
JFK - 77 flights
FLL - 34 flights
MCO - 19 flights
EWR - 14 flights

couple of notes.
- JFK is showing no flights to ORD, just 1x daily to RSW/TPA/JAX and nothing to SRQ. I'm really surprised not more here. Mint is up to 5x to LAX, 3x to SFO, 2x LAS and 1x to SEA/SAN, so a little increase over late June. VFR flights show a slight increase. Also has a lot of 1x/2x/3x weekly island stuff. I'm not sure all the international stuff sticks around. This is about 40 to 42% of their regular pre-COVID schedule (I think they were up to around 185 to 190 flights a day in their original scheduling)
- BOS is showing just single flights to BUF/AUS/CLE/JAX/RIC/PBI which all have no competition. I think they should've added more here to take advantage of the void. Again, they have 2x daily to RSW/TPA and 3x to MCO, but probably should've added more if F9 thought there is enough room here to add flights. JetBlue should really be owning these BOS to Florida markets. They are running about a 40% of their regular pre-COVID schedule here.
- AUS is only showing 1x daily from BOS/JFK. Given that DL has no flight here, it seems like they have room for more than that.
- FLL brought back ATL/HAV, but no AUS/RDU. They are running about a 35% of their regular pre-COVID schedule, a little higher than I would've expected.
- MCO is basically just Northeast/PR/DR at the moment. They are up to about 29% of their regular pre-COVID schedule.
- EWR is close to half of their regular schedule.

So I guess the progression here is 50% schedule at JFK/BOS by August and maybe 60% by Sep/Oct and 75% by holiday season if the demand continues to increase slowly. Other stations will come back slower.

DeltaRules wrote:
They're also dropping BOS-CMH, which would be an opportunity for B6 to return if they were up to it.

sure CMH, IND, MCI, STL, MKE. A lot of routes for them to open up from B6 given legacy weakness in the next few years. Not sure how aggressive they will be adding new airports, but they really should try to take advantage of the situation.
 
Nicknuzzii
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sun May 31, 2020 2:13 pm

The B6 schedule looks a little light compared to what other airlines are planning. B6 should take advantage of this instead of cutting to the equivalent.
 
tphuang
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sun May 31, 2020 2:42 pm

Nicknuzzii wrote:
The B6 schedule looks a little light compared to what other airlines are planning. B6 should take advantage of this instead of cutting to the equivalent.

Who are you comparing them to? Against WN, I would agree that they are running a lighter schedule.

But given that they had to cut more than most airline due to how bad COVID was in NYC/BOS, they are adding things back at a reasonable pace. They were probably at 10 to 15% schedule in May, 25% in June and looks like 35% in July and probably on their way to 60 to 70% schedule by December. Against their main competitors at NYC, BOS and FLL, they are bringing back capacity faster.
 
wnflyguy
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sun May 31, 2020 3:21 pm

Not trying to stir the pot. But hearing this morning from a JetBlue friend in LGB that the hammer has fallen. Last day of LGB service is Said to be November 7 2020.
As B6 regroups in the post pandemic fallout the LGB low yields are no longer viable in a recovery recession environment.
If True it makes since to kill it off once and for all.
My personal view I want JetBlue to stick it out at LGB I love me some JetBlue.
But going forward the A220 should have the legs to make it from SNA to BOS,JFK,MCO and FLL.
This would make since because SNA in 2021 increases it's passenger cap by 1 million additional seats.
SNA would gladly assign B6 4 slots .

Flyguy
my post are my opinion only and not those of southwest airlines and or airtran airlines.
 
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jfklganyc
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sun May 31, 2020 5:09 pm

wnflyguy wrote:
Not trying to stir the pot. But hearing this morning from a JetBlue friend in LGB that the hammer has fallen. Last day of LGB service is Said to be November 7 2020.
As B6 regroups in the post pandemic fallout the LGB low yields are no longer viable in a recovery recession environment.
If True it makes since to kill it off once and for all.
My personal view I want JetBlue to stick it out at LGB I love me some JetBlue.
But going forward the A220 should have the legs to make it from SNA to BOS,JFK,MCO and FLL.
This would make since because SNA in 2021 increases it's passenger cap by 1 million additional seats.
SNA would gladly assign B6 4 slots .

Flyguy



I believe it is true.

Note no JFK LGB in July...says a lot.
 
CobaltScar
Posts: 691
Joined: Thu Mar 23, 2017 2:30 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sun May 31, 2020 5:54 pm

I'm not ready for a complete closure of LGB, silly not to keep the transcons there if no one else is doing them.

The short haul out of LGB never made sense. You don't waste your time with that mess when you have not filled out in the east first.
 
727LOVER
Posts: 8614
Joined: Tue Oct 09, 2001 12:22 am

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Mon Jun 01, 2020 2:23 pm

tphuang wrote:

So the remaining discontinued domestic airports are
LGA/HPN/BWI/SWF/SJC/BUR/ONT/ORH/ABQ/PSP/SMF/SRQ

.



tphuang wrote:
- JFK is showing no flights to ORD, just 1x daily to RSW/TPA/JAX and nothing to SRQ.


Well, you saw THIS:
B6 JFK-SRQ JUL 1.0>0[1.0]

But I think you missed THIS:
B6 MCO-SRQ JUL 0>0.6[0]

There's still a JFK-MCO-SRQ-MCO-JFK run thru July...so station not discontinued YET
"We must accept finite disappointment, but never lose infinite hope." - Martin Luther King, Jr.
 
tphuang
Posts: 5067
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Mon Jun 01, 2020 2:57 pm

727LOVER wrote:
tphuang wrote:

So the remaining discontinued domestic airports are
LGA/HPN/BWI/SWF/SJC/BUR/ONT/ORH/ABQ/PSP/SMF/SRQ

.



tphuang wrote:
- JFK is showing no flights to ORD, just 1x daily to RSW/TPA/JAX and nothing to SRQ.


Well, you saw THIS:
B6 JFK-SRQ JUL 1.0>0[1.0]

But I think you missed THIS:
B6 MCO-SRQ JUL 0>0.6[0]

There's still a JFK-MCO-SRQ-MCO-JFK run thru July...so station not discontinued YET


My most recent comment was strictly about which routes are not getting enough capacity from JFK.

As an addition, it looks like they are bringing back JFK-SMF partially in July based on the sacramento thread
"Also noted that JetBlue returns to SMF/JFK on July 1 with 1x/week departing at 12:45pm and arriving from JFK at 11:23am. Goes to 2x/week July 20. Equipment is an A320."

That's good to see since SMF generally performs very well.
 
Brianpr3
Posts: 28
Joined: Tue Feb 27, 2018 7:34 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Wed Jun 03, 2020 6:41 am

wnflyguy wrote:
Not trying to stir the pot. But hearing this morning from a JetBlue friend in LGB that the hammer has fallen. Last day of LGB service is Said to be November 7 2020.
As B6 regroups in the post pandemic fallout the LGB low yields are no longer viable in a recovery recession environment.
If True it makes since to kill it off once and for all.
My personal view I want JetBlue to stick it out at LGB I love me some JetBlue.
But going forward the A220 should have the legs to make it from SNA to BOS,JFK,MCO and FLL.
This would make since because SNA in 2021 increases it's passenger cap by 1 million additional seats.
SNA would gladly assign B6 4 slots .

Flyguy


If true where will base be relocated too?
Brian
 
WeatherPilot
Posts: 557
Joined: Sun Jun 25, 2017 1:51 am

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Wed Jun 03, 2020 1:01 pm

Brianpr3 wrote:
wnflyguy wrote:
Not trying to stir the pot. But hearing this morning from a JetBlue friend in LGB that the hammer has fallen. Last day of LGB service is Said to be November 7 2020.
As B6 regroups in the post pandemic fallout the LGB low yields are no longer viable in a recovery recession environment.
If True it makes since to kill it off once and for all.
My personal view I want JetBlue to stick it out at LGB I love me some JetBlue.
But going forward the A220 should have the legs to make it from SNA to BOS,JFK,MCO and FLL.
This would make since because SNA in 2021 increases it's passenger cap by 1 million additional seats.
SNA would gladly assign B6 4 slots .

Flyguy


If true where will base be relocated too?


LAX
 
CobaltScar
Posts: 691
Joined: Thu Mar 23, 2017 2:30 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Wed Jun 03, 2020 2:23 pm

WeatherPilot wrote:
Brianpr3 wrote:
wnflyguy wrote:
Not trying to stir the pot. But hearing this morning from a JetBlue friend in LGB that the hammer has fallen. Last day of LGB service is Said to be November 7 2020.
As B6 regroups in the post pandemic fallout the LGB low yields are no longer viable in a recovery recession environment.
If True it makes since to kill it off once and for all.
My personal view I want JetBlue to stick it out at LGB I love me some JetBlue.
But going forward the A220 should have the legs to make it from SNA to BOS,JFK,MCO and FLL.
This would make since because SNA in 2021 increases it's passenger cap by 1 million additional seats.
SNA would gladly assign B6 4 slots .

Flyguy


If true where will base be relocated too?


LAX


Can you imagine living halfway to san diego and suddenly the options to start trips out of LGB is gone and replaced by just LAX?

Ouch.
 
BlueBaller
Posts: 69
Joined: Sun Sep 01, 2019 8:07 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Wed Jun 03, 2020 2:55 pm

CobaltScar wrote:
WeatherPilot wrote:
Brianpr3 wrote:

If true where will base be relocated too?


LAX


Can you imagine living halfway to san diego and suddenly the options to start trips out of LGB is gone and replaced by just LAX?

Ouch.


Be happy to begin with that there'd still be a domicile left to report to on the West Coast. Airlines101.
 
wnflyguy
Posts: 1894
Joined: Thu Feb 10, 2011 7:58 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Wed Jun 03, 2020 4:27 pm

Another Rumor LGB crew base being relocated to LAX.
LGB being kept at 5 daily flights in November.
1 seasonal daily LGB-BOS red eye. Off season 1 Saturday only Red eye.
3 daily LGB-SLC
1 daily LGB-JFK red eye.

Flyguy.
my post are my opinion only and not those of southwest airlines and or airtran airlines.
 
TonyClifton
Posts: 194
Joined: Thu May 14, 2020 3:19 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Wed Jun 03, 2020 4:41 pm

wnflyguy wrote:
Another Rumor LGB crew base being relocated to LAX.
LGB being kept at 5 daily flights in November.
1 seasonal daily LGB-BOS red eye. Off season 1 Saturday only Red eye.
3 daily LGB-SLC
1 daily LGB-JFK red eye.

Flyguy.

Makes sense to keep even a small crew base on the west coast. Gets crew in positions for the transcons when plans fall apart. Better than having to send a crew from the east coast for any recoveries.
 
tphuang
Posts: 5067
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Wed Jun 03, 2020 10:14 pm

I noticed a comment from RH that all the JetBlue planes will look new in a couple of years. And it looks at least right now, most of the E90 flying has been moved to A320 flying. Not sure if that will continue after they move on from blocking middle seat, but E90 might be exiting the fleet sooner than expected. A220 can't come fast enough.

wnflyguy wrote:
Another Rumor LGB crew base being relocated to LAX.
LGB being kept at 5 daily flights in November.
1 seasonal daily LGB-BOS red eye. Off season 1 Saturday only Red eye.
3 daily LGB-SLC
1 daily LGB-JFK red eye.

Flyguy.

you are all over the place. If they are going down to 5 flights, can't imagine it'd be like this.

BlueBaller wrote:
CobaltScar wrote:
WeatherPilot wrote:

LAX


Can you imagine living halfway to san diego and suddenly the options to start trips out of LGB is gone and replaced by just LAX?

Ouch.


Be happy to begin with that there'd still be a domicile left to report to on the West Coast. Airlines101.


Exactly and they really do need a base in west coast. Making LAX the main base seems obvious. Discussion right now is probably on whether to keep LGB around in any capacity.
 
flyby519
Posts: 1565
Joined: Tue Jul 24, 2007 3:31 am

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Wed Jun 03, 2020 10:18 pm

tphuang wrote:
I noticed a comment from RH that all the JetBlue planes will look new in a couple of years. And it looks at least right now, most of the E90 flying has been moved to A320 flying. Not sure if that will continue after they move on from blocking middle seat, but E90 might be exiting the fleet sooner than expected. A220 can't come fast enough.

wnflyguy wrote:
Another Rumor LGB crew base being relocated to LAX.
LGB being kept at 5 daily flights in November.
1 seasonal daily LGB-BOS red eye. Off season 1 Saturday only Red eye.
3 daily LGB-SLC
1 daily LGB-JFK red eye.

Flyguy.

you are all over the place. If they are going down to 5 flights, can't imagine it'd be like this.

BlueBaller wrote:
CobaltScar wrote:

Can you imagine living halfway to san diego and suddenly the options to start trips out of LGB is gone and replaced by just LAX?

Ouch.


Be happy to begin with that there'd still be a domicile left to report to on the West Coast. Airlines101.


Exactly and they really do need a base in west coast. Making LAX the main base seems obvious. Discussion right now is probably on whether to keep LGB around in any capacity.


Middle seat blocking was only supposed to go until July 6th. I’m surprised the 190s aren’t seeing more action in July...
 
User avatar
OzarkD9S
Posts: 5638
Joined: Tue Oct 23, 2001 2:31 am

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Wed Jun 03, 2020 11:06 pm

wnflyguy wrote:

Another Rumor LGB crew base being relocated to LAX.
LGB being kept at 5 daily flights in November.
1 seasonal daily LGB-BOS red eye. Off season 1 Saturday only Red eye.
3 daily LGB-SLC
1 daily LGB-JFK red eye.

Flyguy.


I could see 3 JFK, 1 BOS, 1 FLL...if the station stays open @ 5 daily. Or 5 LAS with 1 stops to the aforementioned cities. Or LGB is just gone and LAX to BOS/FLL/JFK/MCO. Or, we shall see....
"True, I talk of dreams,
Which are the children of an idle brain." -Mercutio
 
nine4nine
Posts: 606
Joined: Tue Mar 28, 2017 3:44 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Thu Jun 04, 2020 6:49 pm

wnflyguy wrote:
Not trying to stir the pot. But hearing this morning from a JetBlue friend in LGB that the hammer has fallen. Last day of LGB service is Said to be November 7 2020.
As B6 regroups in the post pandemic fallout the LGB low yields are no longer viable in a recovery recession environment.
If True it makes since to kill it off once and for all.
My personal view I want JetBlue to stick it out at LGB I love me some JetBlue.
But going forward the A220 should have the legs to make it from SNA to BOS,JFK,MCO and FLL.
This would make since because SNA in 2021 increases it's passenger cap by 1 million additional seats.
SNA would gladly assign B6 4 slots .

Flyguy


This would be great. B6 needs to spread those resources to other airports they are welcomed with open arms at (LAX,SAN,BUR) and actually make a profit with those high yielding stations. LGB is a very weak yielding station with a militant NIMBY/City Council/Airport Ops Environment. None of that drama sounds worth losing money or barely breaking even. Concede and Let WN have it.
717, 727-100, 727-200, 732, 733, 734, 735, 73G, 738, 739, 742, 748, 752, 753, 762, 763, 772, 77W, 787-10, DC9, MD80/88/90, DC10, 319, 220-300, 320, 321, 321n, 332, 333, CS100, CRJ200, Q400, E175, E190, ERJ145, EMB120
 
tphuang
Posts: 5067
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Thu Jun 04, 2020 8:36 pm

ALK just came out and announced they will operate 20% less capacity during summer of 2021 than they did in 2019 and that they expect to have 35 to 50% less capacity this winter than in 2019. I mention them here because they are the closest proxy to JetBlue in size and financial position.

At this point, it will be curious to see what JBLU chose to do. Do could chose to aggressively bring things back like NK(70% schedule for July) and WN (almost 95% schedule for December) or conservative approach like AS and UA.

I would imagine at this point, they are getting close to finalizing their size a year from now. They've had to cut more than most airlines due to how had hit Northeast was, but so did all of their competitors at NYC/BOS/SoFl. I'm hoping that competitor weakness in NYC/BOS would encourage JetBlue management to bring things back sooner, but we will see.
 
tphuang
Posts: 5067
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sun Jun 07, 2020 2:18 pm

From OAG this week
B6 BOG-FLL AUG 2>0[1.0] SEP 1.3>1.0[1.0]
B6 BOG-MCO AUG 1.0>0[1.0]
B6 CTG-FLL AUG 1.0>0[1.0] SEP 0.7>0.4[0.6]
B6 CTG-JFK AUG 1.4>0[0.9] SEP 0.8>0.5[0.4]
B6 FLL-GCM AUG 0.4>0[1.0]
B6 FLL-MDE AUG 1.0>0.0[1.0]
B6 GCM-JFK AUG 0.6>0[0.7]
B6 GEO-JFK OCT 0.2>0[0] NOV 1.0>0[0] DEC 1.0>0[0]
B6 GUA-JFK OCT 0.2>0[0] NOV 1.0>0[0] DEC 1.0>0[0]
They aren't leaving ORH??? 3/week the rest of the year. Massport must be holding a gun to their head.
*B6 JFK-ORH SEP 1.0>0.6[1.0] OCT 1.0>0.4[1.0] NOV 1.0>0.4[1.0] DEC 1.0>0.4[1.0]
B6 JFK-PWM AUG 4>0[3] SEP 3>0[2] OCT 0.8>0[0.8]

looks like colombian border closure extensions into September.

JFK-GEO/GUA starts are getting pushed back to next year. Same with PWM, giving up for this year. We will see if JFK-ORH actually gets operated, but B6 remains very committed to having good relationship with Massport.

Also July cuts from other airlines coming in.
AA is at 40 flights at BOS for peak departure and close to 20 flights at JFK for peak departure.
AS cut BOS-PDX/SAN for July. So that should making things a little easier for B6 resuming these 2 routes.
UA at around 15 flights for peak departures.

Again from last week, B6 is at about 77 peak departures at JFK and 72 peak departures at BOS.
 
flyby519
Posts: 1565
Joined: Tue Jul 24, 2007 3:31 am

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sun Jun 07, 2020 3:16 pm

tphuang wrote:
From OAG this week
B6 BOG-FLL AUG 2>0[1.0] SEP 1.3>1.0[1.0]
B6 BOG-MCO AUG 1.0>0[1.0]
B6 CTG-FLL AUG 1.0>0[1.0] SEP 0.7>0.4[0.6]
B6 CTG-JFK AUG 1.4>0[0.9] SEP 0.8>0.5[0.4]
B6 FLL-GCM AUG 0.4>0[1.0]
B6 FLL-MDE AUG 1.0>0.0[1.0]
B6 GCM-JFK AUG 0.6>0[0.7]
B6 GEO-JFK OCT 0.2>0[0] NOV 1.0>0[0] DEC 1.0>0[0]
B6 GUA-JFK OCT 0.2>0[0] NOV 1.0>0[0] DEC 1.0>0[0]
They aren't leaving ORH??? 3/week the rest of the year. Massport must be holding a gun to their head.
*B6 JFK-ORH SEP 1.0>0.6[1.0] OCT 1.0>0.4[1.0] NOV 1.0>0.4[1.0] DEC 1.0>0.4[1.0]
B6 JFK-PWM AUG 4>0[3] SEP 3>0[2] OCT 0.8>0[0.8]

looks like colombian border closure extensions into September.

JFK-GEO/GUA starts are getting pushed back to next year. Same with PWM, giving up for this year. We will see if JFK-ORH actually gets operated, but B6 remains very committed to having good relationship with Massport.

Also July cuts from other airlines coming in.
AA is at 40 flights at BOS for peak departure and close to 20 flights at JFK for peak departure.
AS cut BOS-PDX/SAN for July. So that should making things a little easier for B6 resuming these 2 routes.
UA at around 15 flights for peak departures.

Again from last week, B6 is at about 77 peak departures at JFK and 72 peak departures at BOS.


How’s DL in JFK/BOS? Less than AA?
 
tphuang
Posts: 5067
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sun Jun 07, 2020 4:10 pm

flyby519 wrote:
tphuang wrote:
From OAG this week
B6 BOG-FLL AUG 2>0[1.0] SEP 1.3>1.0[1.0]
B6 BOG-MCO AUG 1.0>0[1.0]
B6 CTG-FLL AUG 1.0>0[1.0] SEP 0.7>0.4[0.6]
B6 CTG-JFK AUG 1.4>0[0.9] SEP 0.8>0.5[0.4]
B6 FLL-GCM AUG 0.4>0[1.0]
B6 FLL-MDE AUG 1.0>0.0[1.0]
B6 GCM-JFK AUG 0.6>0[0.7]
B6 GEO-JFK OCT 0.2>0[0] NOV 1.0>0[0] DEC 1.0>0[0]
B6 GUA-JFK OCT 0.2>0[0] NOV 1.0>0[0] DEC 1.0>0[0]
They aren't leaving ORH??? 3/week the rest of the year. Massport must be holding a gun to their head.
*B6 JFK-ORH SEP 1.0>0.6[1.0] OCT 1.0>0.4[1.0] NOV 1.0>0.4[1.0] DEC 1.0>0.4[1.0]
B6 JFK-PWM AUG 4>0[3] SEP 3>0[2] OCT 0.8>0[0.8]

looks like colombian border closure extensions into September.

JFK-GEO/GUA starts are getting pushed back to next year. Same with PWM, giving up for this year. We will see if JFK-ORH actually gets operated, but B6 remains very committed to having good relationship with Massport.

Also July cuts from other airlines coming in.
AA is at 40 flights at BOS for peak departure and close to 20 flights at JFK for peak departure.
AS cut BOS-PDX/SAN for July. So that should making things a little easier for B6 resuming these 2 routes.
UA at around 15 flights for peak departures.

Again from last week, B6 is at about 77 peak departures at JFK and 72 peak departures at BOS.


How’s DL in JFK/BOS? Less than AA?


DL is at 36 at JFK and 24 at BOS. I think AA is going to become legacy of choice at BOS going forward. It seems like DL lost a lot of good will with customers over the past couple of months that it had spent time/money to build up. And at JFK, I think B6 will emerge out of this larger than DL. Both are positive development for B6.

The problem they are facing is that NK is going from running 10% to 70% of their schedule in 1 month. That's going to put pressure on B6's FLL operation and EWR ambitions.

Also I check on Thu/Friday, they were at 39 flights at BOS (vs 28 for AA and 15 for DL) and 32 at JFK (vs 25? for DL and around 10 for AA).

I know this pandemic has hit demand at NYC/BOS harder than other parts of their country, but I really hope JetBlue management don't get conservative on the way back. So many things going right for them in terms of where their competitors are shrinking at. I think there is a lot of pent up demand in NYC to travel once stay at home orders loosens more.
 
flyby519
Posts: 1565
Joined: Tue Jul 24, 2007 3:31 am

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sun Jun 07, 2020 4:45 pm

tphuang wrote:
The problem they are facing is that NK is going from running 10% to 70% of their schedule in 1 month. That's going to put pressure on B6's FLL operation and EWR ambitions.


SWA cuts at FLL will hopefully help, but I agree that Florida in general will be more difficult with NK/F9 building up faster than JB, and better equipped to offer very low fares.
tphuang wrote:
I know this pandemic has hit demand at NYC/BOS harder than other parts of their country, but I really hope JetBlue management don't get conservative on the way back. So many things going right for them in terms of where their competitors are shrinking at. I think there is a lot of pent up demand in NYC to travel once stay at home orders loosens more.


I am becoming more and more concerned that B6 will squander this opportunity to an extent and will give AA room in BOS. JFK still seems to be facing little competition, but will they respond aggressively enough when the wolves come sniffing around?

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