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clrd4t8koff
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Re: Major Expansion B6 at EWR and JFK

Thu Jun 18, 2020 5:48 pm

x1234 wrote:
FINALLY DTW-JFK so I can use JFK as a gateway to Europe!


Why on earth would you be excited to use JFK as a gateway to Europe when the only airline you can easily connect to @ JFK from B6 is EI?? Any other airline would require exiting security and taking the Airtrain to another terminal and re-clearing security. Whereas DTW-BOS-Europe on B6 is a very easy connection to not only EI & TP, but if you connect to another European carrier it's a seamless walk from Terminal C to Terminal E without having to leave security.
 
CobaltScar
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Re: Major Expansion B6 at EWR and JFK

Thu Jun 18, 2020 5:49 pm

STT757 wrote:

it's not all gloom and doom, United has more Widebody aircraft than any other US carrier and not a lot of International routes for them right now. They can 787-10 JetBlue to death on the Trans-cons.


Wish they would try. UA will lose a ton more money each of those flights than B6 on a 320.
 
hiflyeras
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Re: Major Expansion B6 at EWR and JFK

Thu Jun 18, 2020 5:59 pm

I can't of thought of a better way for B6 to wake up and piss off every major airline in the US. I'll be grabbing the popcorn to watch how all this comes down!!
 
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SANFan
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Re: Major Expansion B6 at EWR and JFK

Thu Jun 18, 2020 5:59 pm

I've already posted elsewhere but I notice that there hasn't been much mention on this thread of the new EWR-SAN route that begins Aug 6 with a frequency of "up to 1x daily." Since this is a route involving the growing and expanding EWR focus city of B6, I'm hopeful this will be a long-term add and not just a quick summer cash grab. With several new gates being acquired at Liberty, they've got to fill them with flights to somewhere...

This brings SAN's route map on Blue to 4 destinations and that's a good thing!

bb
 
BlueBaller
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Re: Major Expansion B6 at EWR and JFK

Thu Jun 18, 2020 6:02 pm

DeltaRules wrote:
Why not connect some of the dots in flyover country they've avoided for years? WN just bailed on BOS-CMH, which would open the door for them.


“Connecting the dots” in B6 lingo implies adding new service in existing markets. Somebody else mentioned starting JFK - Boise, ID which is completely asinine right about now. Since they’re focus on conserving cash and reinforcement of their brand in current markets, opening up a brand new station, with all the overhead those kinds of costs incur, isn’t the wisest idea, even if it’d be an undisputed success. Ask any B6 employee they’ll tell you their token presence in some of these markets for years has been very frustrating. Good to see them reaffirming themselves.
 
LH658
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Re: Major Expansion B6 at EWR and JFK

Thu Jun 18, 2020 6:05 pm

I wish they added IAH, but I guess since DL flies LGA/JFK to IAH and UA with EWR/LGA and B6 only to JFK, and Spirit only to EWR, there's already enough capacity I guess to the NYC area.
 
kavok
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Re: Major Expansion B6 at EWR and JFK

Thu Jun 18, 2020 6:06 pm

clrd4t8koff wrote:
x1234 wrote:
FINALLY DTW-JFK so I can use JFK as a gateway to Europe!


Why on earth would you be excited to use JFK as a gateway to Europe when the only airline you can easily connect to @ JFK from B6 is EI?? Any other airline would require exiting security and taking the Airtrain to another terminal and re-clearing security. Whereas DTW-BOS-Europe on B6 is a very easy connection to not only EI & TP, but if you connect to another European carrier it's a seamless walk from Terminal C to Terminal E without having to leave security.


True, but that only works on the North America to Europe connection. On the return, effectively you have to clear security regardless, so it is not as big a deal.

I think the bigger issue is options. The JFK AirTran connection, while annoying, provides another LCC TATL option. Remember that DTW flyers have no LCC carriers to Europe or ME3 carriers to the Middle East. Thus the only option before to get a TATL LCC or ME3 was through BOS. This provides a second option, even if slightly more inconvenient on the way there.
 
Flflyer83
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Re: Major Expansion B6 at EWR and JFK

Thu Jun 18, 2020 6:12 pm

And what about all of the other routes and the few cities that they cut due to the pandemic? Not bringing them back?
 
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jfklganyc
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Re: Major Expansion B6 at EWR and JFK

Thu Jun 18, 2020 6:18 pm

tphuang wrote:
" So if they want to expand at EWR, they need to add more flights. I'd love to see LAX or SFO, but not sure if they have enough mint aircraft around for even 4x on EWR-LAX. Aside from that, stuff like PUJ/MBJ/KIN/CUN/AUA/BGI(more than 1x weekly) all seem to things they can try internationally. And domestically, I think leisure places and large WN stations are all places they can target like MSY/AUS/LAS/SAN and also places they have large enough presence like BUF/JAX/CHS/ACK."
- I got a lot of these EWR markets right. Basically, only missed PHX/SRQ.

I'm really surprised nobody has mentioned BOS up to this point. 30 new routes and nothing from BOS. There is a reason for that.

BOS business markets are slow to come back. They are doing just a fraction of the schedule to business markets like NYC/DC/Chicago/Philly compared to pre-COVID. DL is not in a hurry to add back BOS business routes, so JetBlue can take its time adding back capacity to those markets. Major shift of its focus back to NYC.

What have we seen in NYC?
DL slow to add back LGA due to non-existent corporate demand. Even slower adding back JFK due to collapsed international demand. No more 717s. Apparently
AA giving up a lot of slots at JFK and effectively dehubbing it.
UA slowly to add back EWR capacity and have minimal presence at LGA
No WN to worry about at EWR and JFK
No ULCC to worry about at JFK

Everything has opened up for B6 at NYC. DTW/MSP/DFW is less about picking a fight with DL in JFK-DTW/MSP and more about completing their network at JFK. I've been harping on them about adding these markets for a while now.

After they add these 3 markets and enter Europe, they are basically just missing CLT in their network. The biggest knock against B6 in NYC has always been that they don't fly to enough places. Especially for securing corporate contracts and now they will at least have token presence everywhere. If they can just get a few more LGA slots, then they can enter LGA-ORD and be a legitimate competitor in the business market to the legacy carriers. All this could be accomplished by 2022. A big difference compared to pre-COVID when they are boxed in at NYC with limited growth areas. They were just going to lose out more and more DL in NYC over time. It's a much bigger deal to DL than just JFK-DTW/MSP. Better to play offensive against DL at NYC and forcing DL to add back JFK quickly rather than play defensively at BOS like they were doing pre-COVID.

As for EWR, these are obvious moves for them to do. I'm just surprised they did not add more island stuff. I would imagine once they are certain the islands are not closing down traffic again, they will start adding stuff like PUJ/MBJ/CUN/AUA. I think they've been planning this move for a while. They got the extra space with new terminal 1 opening up and WN not around to fight for gates. This looks like they are aiming at minimum a 60 flight operation. Maybe they can go even higher than that. UA is going to take a while to get back to over 400 flights. JetBlue has until at least 2022 to add flights without worrying that NY airspace will be jammed up again.

Goal here for JetBlue should be a legitimate 3rd option for ff and businesses in NY area and a legitimate 2nd option for ff and businesses in NJ area. Looks like they are even thinking of moving into PA, which is probably a terrible idea.



Spot on Boston NYC analysis
 
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jfklganyc
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Re: Major Expansion B6 at EWR and JFK

Thu Jun 18, 2020 6:20 pm

Flflyer83 wrote:
And what about all of the other routes and the few cities that they cut due to the pandemic? Not bringing them back?



Boston business markets will see less frequency
 
Scarebus34
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Re: Major Expansion B6 at EWR and JFK

Thu Jun 18, 2020 6:23 pm

catiii wrote:
jfklganyc wrote:
Separate post:

United made a big mistake in New York

Essentially they have retrenched significantly while giving the appearance of strengthening their Newark hub

Over the last decade, they have essentially made themselves worthless out of JFK and LaGuardia unless you were flying to one of their hubs. Then they closed JFK.

This allowed other airlines like Jetblue Virgin and Alaska to get into the Transcon business.

I long-ago predicted that the competition would follow them right to their drawbridge at the fortress in Newark...and now it has.

“12 daily from JFK and now 3 daily to Newark.” What a great advantage for Jetblue to advertise with that line.

Bravo to them. Bravo.

Perhaps one of the biggest moves they have made in the history of the company was made this morning


Completely agreed on your UA assessment. I think it is clear that United’s New York/New Jersey strategy is in flux with Jill Kaplan leaving after less than 2 years, who came to United with much fanfare to be the President of New York/New Jersey. It appears they are dismantling that whole effort. As you rightly noted the network options from LGA are worthless, and to not even maintain a beach head presence in JFK was arguably the dumbest decision they've ever made. They do not have a transcontinental 757 replacement and the existing product pre-Covid was tired worn and dated. I don't see what their opportunities to respond here are, because they have rendered themselves irrelevant in the tri-state area everywhere but EWR, and that wall is crumbling.

The MAX 10 will be the 757 transcon replacement...
 
gregn21
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Re: Major Expansion B6 at EWR and JFK

Thu Jun 18, 2020 6:27 pm

Where on earth does the metal to operate this schedule come from? There must be substantial cuts somewhere in the system to make room for this kind of expansion right?
 
evank516
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Re: Major Expansion B6 at EWR and JFK

Thu Jun 18, 2020 6:40 pm

SteveXC500 wrote:
evank516 wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
UA isn't going to like Mint on EWR-LAX/SFO, plus all the new EWR flying.

Going right at DL as well with JFK-DTW/MSP

Interesting to watch....


I'm excited to see DL's response to JFK-DTW/MSP. Maybe we will actually see additional mainline flying on JFK-DTW and kick the 717s off of JFK-MSP.


Currently, albeit a greatly reduced schedule, JFK-MSP is A220's. MSP isn't seeing too many 717's of late. Again, greatly reduced though...


Yeah I noticed that the A220 has been the plane of choice for JFK-MSP as of lately. They started making their appearance on the route right before the pandemic took air travel down. JFK-DTW was 1x A220, 1x 717 and the rest CR9s. I have a feeling that will change with this announcement. Probably an increase in A220s.
 
BlueBaller
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Re: Major Expansion B6 at EWR and JFK

Thu Jun 18, 2020 6:45 pm

gregn21 wrote:
Where on earth does the metal to operate this schedule come from? There must be substantial cuts somewhere in the system to make room for this kind of expansion right?


They stashed 90 airplanes in the desert back in April, another 60 throughout the system, and are nowhere near ready to resume a 2019 schedule until at least 12 months from now. It's a way to capture a cratered-out domestic market that's already proven itself in terms of demand, while adding flights at existing stations.
 
MIAFLLPBIFlyer
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Re: Major Expansion B6 at EWR and JFK

Thu Jun 18, 2020 6:55 pm

AA & DL's inability to really attack B6 at BOS now, or at least as aggressively as planned probably played into this as well. Gave jetBlue the breathing space to attack DL/UA in NYC and AA in PHL. Also in Florida, this p2p flying will put pressure on WN who has cut Florida through th winter more than any other place - in fact they are growing most of the rest of their network.
 
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klm617
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Re: Major Expansion B6 at EWR and JFK

Thu Jun 18, 2020 6:58 pm

kavok wrote:
clrd4t8koff wrote:
x1234 wrote:
FINALLY DTW-JFK so I can use JFK as a gateway to Europe!


Why on earth would you be excited to use JFK as a gateway to Europe when the only airline you can easily connect to @ JFK from B6 is EI?? Any other airline would require exiting security and taking the Airtrain to another terminal and re-clearing security. Whereas DTW-BOS-Europe on B6 is a very easy connection to not only EI & TP, but if you connect to another European carrier it's a seamless walk from Terminal C to Terminal E without having to leave security.


True, but that only works on the North America to Europe connection. On the return, effectively you have to clear security regardless, so it is not as big a deal.

I think the bigger issue is options. The JFK AirTran connection, while annoying, provides another LCC TATL option. Remember that DTW flyers have no LCC carriers to Europe or ME3 carriers to the Middle East. Thus the only option before to get a TATL LCC or ME3 was through BOS. This provides a second option, even if slightly more inconvenient on the way there.


I would much rather connect at JFK than BOS. Remember at JFK you have more options in case of a missed connection as most carriers have multiple flights into JFK where as in BOS a missed connection and you are screwed.
the truth does matter, guys. too bad it's often quite subjective. the truth is beyond the mere facts and figures. it's beyond good and bad, right and wrong...
 
N649DL
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Re: Major Expansion B6 at EWR and JFK

Thu Jun 18, 2020 6:59 pm

hohd wrote:
UA huge mistake in leaving JFK and placing all its bets on EWR-LAX/SFO will hurt soon. Better late than never, may be it is time to reintroduce JFK service for UA.


Holy Crap this is true. B6's Mint is literally going to kick UA's Ass on EWR-LAX/SFO (since they've watered down PS after leaving JFK). The question is will the Tri-State Area recover from COVID-19 to eventually fill up these new routes? And where are they getting the gates from? Are they going to operated out of the old WN / sUA gates in A-1?

Also to note PHL is getting some nice new additions as well.
 
MavyWavyATR
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Re: Major Expansion B6 at EWR and JFK

Thu Jun 18, 2020 7:11 pm

Good for both B6 and EWR. But wouldn't this kind of buildup at EWR cannibalize B6's JFK operation?
 
chicawgo
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Re: Major Expansion B6 at EWR and JFK

Thu Jun 18, 2020 7:16 pm

drdisque wrote:
Flying ORD-PBI Local to Local is going to be a disaster. Yes, UA isn't flying it right now and WN only flies it seasonally, but there's a reason, there isn't much demand and what demand there is depends on having some feed.


I wouldn't count this one out. There are a lot of people in Chicago metro that have places north of FLL and PBI is much more convenient. I realize this is anecdotal but I have three family members and 3 other family friends with homes/condos where PBI is preferred. A few in Boca and Delray which could go to PBI or FLL and some in Jupiter which is significantly closer to PBI being north of Palm Beach. Also, PBI is a much easier experience, especially for seniors.

AA generally has 2-3 flights per day and UA has seasonal. WN is so minimal it's almost not even relevant. Also, honestly, most people that have O&D travel to that area live on the north and west sides and MDW is not preferred.

I think it's a great idea to try and get some visibility while UA and AA are shredding flights.
 
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FLIHGH
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Re: Major Expansion B6 at EWR and JFK

Thu Jun 18, 2020 7:19 pm

Interesting to see them relaunch TPA-DCA so quickly after nearly gutting all of the non hub DCA flying.
 
catiii
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Re: Major Expansion B6 at EWR and JFK

Thu Jun 18, 2020 7:21 pm

STT757 wrote:
catiii wrote:
jfklganyc wrote:
Separate post:

United made a big mistake in New York

Essentially they have retrenched significantly while giving the appearance of strengthening their Newark hub

Over the last decade, they have essentially made themselves worthless out of JFK and LaGuardia unless you were flying to one of their hubs. Then they closed JFK.

This allowed other airlines like Jetblue Virgin and Alaska to get into the Transcon business.

I long-ago predicted that the competition would follow them right to their drawbridge at the fortress in Newark...and now it has.

“12 daily from JFK and now 3 daily to Newark.” What a great advantage for Jetblue to advertise with that line.

Bravo to them. Bravo.

Perhaps one of the biggest moves they have made in the history of the company was made this morning


Completely agreed on your UA assessment. I think it is clear that United’s New York/New Jersey strategy is in flux with Jill Kaplan leaving after less than 2 years, who came to United with much fanfare to be the President of New York/New Jersey. It appears they are dismantling that whole effort. As you rightly noted the network options from LGA are worthless, and to not even maintain a beach head presence in JFK was arguably the dumbest decision they've ever made. They do not have a transcontinental 757 replacement and the existing product pre-Covid was tired worn and dated. I don't see what their opportunities to respond here are, because they have rendered themselves irrelevant in the tri-state area everywhere but EWR, and that wall is crumbling.


it's not all gloom and doom, United has more Widebody aircraft than any other US carrier and not a lot of International routes for them right now. They can 787-10 JetBlue to death on the Trans-cons.


Good for them. See how that works out for them.
 
tphuang
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Re: Major Expansion B6 at EWR and JFK

Thu Jun 18, 2020 7:22 pm

MIAFLLPBIFlyer wrote:
AA & DL's inability to really attack B6 at BOS now, or at least as aggressively as planned probably played into this as well. Gave jetBlue the breathing space to attack DL/UA in NYC and AA in PHL. Also in Florida, this p2p flying will put pressure on WN who has cut Florida through th winter more than any other place - in fact they are growing most of the rest of their network.

Exactly. Without pressure at BOS, B6 is free to expand at NYC as it sees fit. It also helps that WN and ULCCs are busy expanding, so legacies have more than 1 airline to retaliate against. The big 4 have basically made choices that have reduced pressure on B6 everywhere.

In Florida, I still think B6 will have real difficulty with ULCCs (especially NK at FLL) in the next couple of years. We will see. If someone buys out NK, it would be a great gift to JetBlue.

gregn21 wrote:
Where on earth does the metal to operate this schedule come from? There must be substantial cuts somewhere in the system to make room for this kind of expansion right?

They have so many parked aircraft right now and have not retired any of them. And they are taking 16 A220s and over 20 more A321NEO/LRs from now until end of 2022. I'm sure LGB is toast at this point. FLL will be smaller for a while and MCO will be even smaller for a while. it will take a while for BOS business markets to come back to pre-COVID levels.

MavyWavyATR wrote:
Good for both B6 and EWR. But wouldn't this kind of buildup at EWR cannibalize B6's JFK operation?

Not at all. There are a lot of people that fly out of EWR but not JFK. It also helps that WN left completely, AA is much smaller at JFK and UA/DL are likely to be below pre-COVID capacity until international comes back to pre-COVID level.

N649DL wrote:
hohd wrote:
UA huge mistake in leaving JFK and placing all its bets on EWR-LAX/SFO will hurt soon. Better late than never, may be it is time to reintroduce JFK service for UA.


Holy Crap this is true. B6's Mint is literally going to kick UA's Ass on EWR-LAX/SFO (since they've watered down PS after leaving JFK). The question is will the Tri-State Area recover from COVID-19 to eventually fill up these new routes? And where are they getting the gates from? Are they going to operated out of the old WN / sUA gates in A-1?

Also to note PHL is getting some nice new additions as well.

It remains to be seen whether B6 is looking to be a real competitor to UA on these routes or just be around 3 to 4x daily like VX/AS have been.

Again, forcing AS out of EWR-LAX/SFO/SAN is probably part of their calculation here.
 
catiii
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Re: Major Expansion B6 at EWR and JFK

Thu Jun 18, 2020 7:22 pm

Scarebus34 wrote:
catiii wrote:
jfklganyc wrote:
Separate post:

United made a big mistake in New York

Essentially they have retrenched significantly while giving the appearance of strengthening their Newark hub

Over the last decade, they have essentially made themselves worthless out of JFK and LaGuardia unless you were flying to one of their hubs. Then they closed JFK.

This allowed other airlines like Jetblue Virgin and Alaska to get into the Transcon business.

I long-ago predicted that the competition would follow them right to their drawbridge at the fortress in Newark...and now it has.

“12 daily from JFK and now 3 daily to Newark.” What a great advantage for Jetblue to advertise with that line.

Bravo to them. Bravo.

Perhaps one of the biggest moves they have made in the history of the company was made this morning


Completely agreed on your UA assessment. I think it is clear that United’s New York/New Jersey strategy is in flux with Jill Kaplan leaving after less than 2 years, who came to United with much fanfare to be the President of New York/New Jersey. It appears they are dismantling that whole effort. As you rightly noted the network options from LGA are worthless, and to not even maintain a beach head presence in JFK was arguably the dumbest decision they've ever made. They do not have a transcontinental 757 replacement and the existing product pre-Covid was tired worn and dated. I don't see what their opportunities to respond here are, because they have rendered themselves irrelevant in the tri-state area everywhere but EWR, and that wall is crumbling.

The MAX 10 will be the 757 transcon replacement...


And when is it certified for return to flight? And when are they getting it?
 
T5towbar
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Re: Major Expansion B6 at EWR and JFK

Thu Jun 18, 2020 7:42 pm

N649DL wrote:
hohd wrote:
UA huge mistake in leaving JFK and placing all its bets on EWR-LAX/SFO will hurt soon. Better late than never, may be it is time to reintroduce JFK service for UA.


Holy Crap this is true. B6's Mint is literally going to kick UA's Ass on EWR-LAX/SFO (since they've watered down PS after leaving JFK). The question is will the Tri-State Area recover from COVID-19 to eventually fill up these new routes? And where are they getting the gates from? Are they going to operated out of the old WN / sUA gates in A-1?

Also to note PHL is getting some nice new additions as well.


They are using those gates in A-1, since AC isn't flying much. The construction has Gates 10; 11; & 12 blocked. There is no Gate 13.
B6 also have Gate 31 to use as well. But I don't think that they will be in B-2 since it is optimized for UA Express ops. You could only use 5 gates (for ML) in B-2. Also note, that C5 and XJT has there MX ops in B-2 as well. (Those aircraft for C5 are in IAD now). The concourse is abandoned, but you have some of their personnel still there. B6 also have there BMU in B-2 instead of B-1. Right now, slots are not a problem since UA isn't running a full schedule. And it was also rumored that B6 was going to make more moves here since the new terminal was to come online, and with WN leaving; COVID 19 happened; it just helped speed things up. They will be the 2nd biggest operator here. I thought that they would expand more, but the Transcons with Mint was a surprise. That was a big time move!

UA will just have to add another daily 787 (or a 777) on the routes.

BTW: Will the MAX ever fly again? As someone said, that was supposed to be the replacement (or to supplement with the 321's that supposed to come online in a few years). They were supposed to replace the 738/739 on the Transcon routes.
A comment from an Ex CON: Work Hard.....Fly Standby!
 
AA94
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Re: Major Expansion B6 at EWR and JFK

Thu Jun 18, 2020 8:12 pm

Really aggressive move by B6 at precisely the right time. As a UA employee I'm obviously a little unsettled, but this is a fantastic opportunity to take advantage of the current environment where the normal playbook is out the window.

Forcing AS out of the transcon markets ex-EWR seems like low hanging fruit, especially since AS has been a retreating, defensive player on transcon flying since the VX acquisition.
 
Detroit313
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Re: Major Expansion B6 at EWR and JFK

Thu Jun 18, 2020 8:19 pm

WOW!

Very aggressive!
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: Major Expansion B6 at EWR and JFK

Thu Jun 18, 2020 8:52 pm

STT757 wrote:
catiii wrote:
jfklganyc wrote:
Separate post:

United made a big mistake in New York

Essentially they have retrenched significantly while giving the appearance of strengthening their Newark hub

Over the last decade, they have essentially made themselves worthless out of JFK and LaGuardia unless you were flying to one of their hubs. Then they closed JFK.

This allowed other airlines like Jetblue Virgin and Alaska to get into the Transcon business.

I long-ago predicted that the competition would follow them right to their drawbridge at the fortress in Newark...and now it has.

“12 daily from JFK and now 3 daily to Newark.” What a great advantage for Jetblue to advertise with that line.

Bravo to them. Bravo.

Perhaps one of the biggest moves they have made in the history of the company was made this morning


Completely agreed on your UA assessment. I think it is clear that United’s New York/New Jersey strategy is in flux with Jill Kaplan leaving after less than 2 years, who came to United with much fanfare to be the President of New York/New Jersey. It appears they are dismantling that whole effort. As you rightly noted the network options from LGA are worthless, and to not even maintain a beach head presence in JFK was arguably the dumbest decision they've ever made. They do not have a transcontinental 757 replacement and the existing product pre-Covid was tired worn and dated. I don't see what their opportunities to respond here are, because they have rendered themselves irrelevant in the tri-state area everywhere but EWR, and that wall is crumbling.


it's not all gloom and doom, United has more Widebody aircraft than any other US carrier and not a lot of International routes for them right now. They can 787-10 JetBlue to death on the Trans-cons.


Kirby has not shown any interest in being competitive during the crisis, I don't see UA trying to fight B6 at this point

The strategy appears to be to shrink to profitability at all costs, even if you could end up hurting the business long-term
Status for 2019/2020: AAdvantage Platinum, Delta Gold, Southwest A-List
 
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jfklganyc
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Re: Major Expansion B6 at EWR and JFK

Thu Jun 18, 2020 9:03 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
STT757 wrote:
catiii wrote:

Completely agreed on your UA assessment. I think it is clear that United’s New York/New Jersey strategy is in flux with Jill Kaplan leaving after less than 2 years, who came to United with much fanfare to be the President of New York/New Jersey. It appears they are dismantling that whole effort. As you rightly noted the network options from LGA are worthless, and to not even maintain a beach head presence in JFK was arguably the dumbest decision they've ever made. They do not have a transcontinental 757 replacement and the existing product pre-Covid was tired worn and dated. I don't see what their opportunities to respond here are, because they have rendered themselves irrelevant in the tri-state area everywhere but EWR, and that wall is crumbling.


it's not all gloom and doom, United has more Widebody aircraft than any other US carrier and not a lot of International routes for them right now. They can 787-10 JetBlue to death on the Trans-cons.


Kirby has not shown any interest in being competitive during the crisis, I don't see UA trying to fight B6 at this point

The strategy appears to be to shrink to profitability at all costs, even if you could end up hurting the business long-term



He may end up looking like a genius at the end of this… We just don’t know how this is going to play out
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Major Expansion B6 at EWR and JFK

Thu Jun 18, 2020 9:09 pm

lowfareair wrote:
This is why we will see fare wars and flight levels returning to normal. Not from entrenched legacies wanting to do it, but from airlines who are either more nimble or have calculated that they lose less money flying planes than parking them. The big 4 almost assuredly don't want this, but moves like this from B6, NK, F9 will likely force their hand, at least within North America.

I agree. I'm glad to see B6 showing some nimbleness. I hope they thrive.

Allegiant seems to be the most aggressive. For better or worse, the US4 will lose market share.

Did I miss AS's big move?

Lightsaber
Winter is coming.
 
slcdeltarumd11
Posts: 4845
Joined: Fri Jan 09, 2004 7:30 am

Re: Major Expansion B6 at EWR and JFK

Thu Jun 18, 2020 9:18 pm

Oddly I think it's a good time to push EWR. United cant defend the fortress like they would any other time. We has such price premiums on alot of united N/S routes.

JetBlue has a great reputation in the entire NY/NJ/CT/MA/VT area adding EWR base isn't bad they have lots of fans and it's a known respected brand in the northeast.
 
nine4nine
Posts: 654
Joined: Tue Mar 28, 2017 3:44 pm

Re: Major Expansion B6 at EWR and JFK

Thu Jun 18, 2020 9:37 pm

lightsaber wrote:
lowfareair wrote:
This is why we will see fare wars and flight levels returning to normal. Not from entrenched legacies wanting to do it, but from airlines who are either more nimble or have calculated that they lose less money flying planes than parking them. The big 4 almost assuredly don't want this, but moves like this from B6, NK, F9 will likely force their hand, at least within North America.

I agree. I'm glad to see B6 showing some nimbleness. I hope they thrive.

Allegiant seems to be the most aggressive. For better or worse, the US4 will lose market share.

Did I miss AS's big move?

Lightsaber


Yes. AS added MRY and LAX-FAT lol.
717, 727-100, 727-200, 732, 733, 734, 735, 73G, 738, 739, 742, 748, 752, 753, 762, 763, 772, 77W, 787-10, DC9, MD80/88/90, DC10, 319, 220-300, 320, 321, 321n, 332, 333, CS100, CRJ200, Q400, E175, E190, ERJ145, EMB120
 
N649DL
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Re: Major Expansion B6 at EWR and JFK

Thu Jun 18, 2020 9:44 pm

slcdeltarumd11 wrote:
Oddly I think it's a good time to push EWR. United cant defend the fortress like they would any other time. We has such price premiums on alot of united N/S routes.

JetBlue has a great reputation in the entire NY/NJ/CT/MA/VT area adding EWR base isn't bad they have lots of fans and it's a known respected brand in the northeast.


Which is hilarious, because back in 2001 at the EWR Airplane Expo there was a JetBlue booth and my Dad asked an employee if B6 would ever come to EWR and they said "Absolutely No Chance". Times have changed so much since then.
 
F9LASDEN
Posts: 225
Joined: Tue May 01, 2018 3:56 pm

Re: Major Expansion B6 at EWR and JFK

Thu Jun 18, 2020 10:02 pm

nine4nine wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
lowfareair wrote:
This is why we will see fare wars and flight levels returning to normal. Not from entrenched legacies wanting to do it, but from airlines who are either more nimble or have calculated that they lose less money flying planes than parking them. The big 4 almost assuredly don't want this, but moves like this from B6, NK, F9 will likely force their hand, at least within North America.

I agree. I'm glad to see B6 showing some nimbleness. I hope they thrive.

Allegiant seems to be the most aggressive. For better or worse, the US4 will lose market share.

Did I miss AS's big move?

Lightsaber


Yes. AS added MRY and LAX-FAT lol.


PDX-DEN too.
Spirit of the West...A Whole Different Animal...Low Fares Done Right
 
tphuang
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Thu Jun 18, 2020 11:47 pm

The link to their big news today of 30 new routes.
http://otp.investis.com/clients/us/jetb ... wsid=69352

It will be interesting how they get enough mint aircraft for the new service. I'd imagine it won't stay at 3x to LAX and 2x to SFO. Especially if they chase AS off those routes as I expect, they should be able to support at least what VX had there. Maybe they can reconfigure some of the all-core A321CEOs to be mint config.

Other than that, their moves at EWR seems to be going after a lot of markets that WN left vacant. On top of what they added, other domestic market that would make sense (have leisure demand + no dominant legacy presence) are BNA, MSY, RDU and ACK/MVY.

PHL was a big surprise for me. Maybe it's something they can build on once they start attracting more NJ/PA customers with their increased EWR presence. Not sure. Even with AA cutting back, there is a lot of pressure from ULCCs + some WN presence. The great thing about EWR is that ULCC presence is quite small and WN is non-existent.

MCO-SFO was a surprise also. If they are intent on filling all the transcons that WN abandoned from MCO. They should add MCO-SAN next.

Now that they are adding service to 3 of their largest holes out of JFK, just taking a look at which are their largest domestic holes out of JFK. Now that slots no longer seem to be an issue, they should be less constrained on what to add.

According to PDEW from Q3 of 2019, the largest domestic market they are not serving are and their overall ranking.
10. CLT
25. DC
30. STL
31. CLE
34 to 38. PIT, CVG, CMH, IND, MCI
Largest beyond perimeter unserved route
41. SAT
So the most obvious one to add back is CLT. Never should've cut it. I think it's an easy route to bring back at 2x daily. DC probably doesn't make sense given the continued growth of amtrak options. I'm not sure CLE/PIT would work from JFK. Beyond that, it seems like STL/CVG/CMH/IND/SAT are all places they should add if they are going to fly there from BOS.

If they can just add JFK-CLT, TATL flights and maybe a couple of more places like STL/IND, I think they are going to attract a lot more business clients and ff in tristate area. If they can get some LGA slots, maybe they can add LGA-ORD/CLE/PIT.
 
PHLspecial
Posts: 683
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Fri Jun 19, 2020 12:21 am

tphuang wrote:
The link to their big news today of 30 new routes.
http://otp.investis.com/clients/us/jetb ... wsid=69352

It will be interesting how they get enough mint aircraft for the new service. I'd imagine it won't stay at 3x to LAX and 2x to SFO. Especially if they chase AS off those routes as I expect, they should be able to support at least what VX had there. Maybe they can reconfigure some of the all-core A321CEOs to be mint config.

Other than that, their moves at EWR seems to be going after a lot of markets that WN left vacant. On top of what they added, other domestic market that would make sense (have leisure demand + no dominant legacy presence) are BNA, MSY, RDU and ACK/MVY.

PHL was a big surprise for me. Maybe it's something they can build on once they start attracting more NJ/PA customers with their increased EWR presence. Not sure. Even with AA cutting back, there is a lot of pressure from ULCCs + some WN presence. The great thing about EWR is that ULCC presence is quite small and WN is non-existent.

MCO-SFO was a surprise also. If they are intent on filling all the transcons that WN abandoned from MCO. They should add MCO-SAN next.

Now that they are adding service to 3 of their largest holes out of JFK, just taking a look at which are their largest domestic holes out of JFK. Now that slots no longer seem to be an issue, they should be less constrained on what to add.

According to PDEW from Q3 of 2019, the largest domestic market they are not serving are and their overall ranking.
10. CLT
25. DC
30. STL
31. CLE
34 to 38. PIT, CVG, CMH, IND, MCI
Largest beyond perimeter unserved route
41. SAT
So the most obvious one to add back is CLT. Never should've cut it. I think it's an easy route to bring back at 2x daily. DC probably doesn't make sense given the continued growth of amtrak options. I'm not sure CLE/PIT would work from JFK. Beyond that, it seems like STL/CVG/CMH/IND/SAT are all places they should add if they are going to fly there from BOS.

If they can just add JFK-CLT, TATL flights and maybe a couple of more places like STL/IND, I think they are going to attract a lot more business clients and ff in tristate area. If they can get some LGA slots, maybe they can add LGA-ORD/CLE/PIT.

I was surprised with the PHL adds as well! I thought JetBlue would always be on the back burner at PHL. I think they have a good chance stealing away seats from AA and the ULCCs. They would be "higher quality (better than AA)" experience here. I think the SJU, MCO and TPA route will do pretty well.

As for the CLT-JFK it will be back once financial markets are sorted out.
 
catiii
Posts: 3638
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Re: Major Expansion B6 at EWR and JFK

Fri Jun 19, 2020 12:49 am

aemoreira1981 wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:
FSDan wrote:

They already have that title - they're the only major airline based in NYC!


PANYNJ airports NYC, passenger traffic 12-months ending 9/19:

UA, 32.7 million
DL, 32.5 million
B6, 18.0 million
AA, 16.7 million
and to show the gap to #5, WN, 4.2 million

The tag 'Hometown airline' doesn't pay the bills.

https://old.panynj.gov/airports/pdf-tra ... T_2019.pdf


UA and DL also have major wide-body and long-haul networks out of New York. B6 only has narrow-body aircraft, but has done enough damage to basically push AA to near irrelevance at JFK. The idea here is that B6 could re-fit more 321s with Mint, while the 32Qs (excluding the LR frames) are all core, and then make more routes Mint (basically an international-style J) where B6 could do damage to the legacies, like ORD. AA will likely retrench to PHL, CLT, MIA, and DFW.


“Only” narrowbodies... They’ve done pretty well with “only” narrowbodies.

Also they’re not re-fitting more 321s. They’re taking new build Mint 321s and using existing Mint 321s.
 
Nicknuzzii
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Fri Jun 19, 2020 12:53 am

I definitely do believe B6 will compete well in PHL. Many only chose F9 for their super low fares, they would love to have a better product like B6 but for half the price of AA. WN is just lost in the sauce in my opinion. Sooner or later they are going to have to allow 3rd party booking sites or at least google flights.
 
airhansa
Posts: 380
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Re: Major Expansion B6 at EWR and JFK

Fri Jun 19, 2020 1:18 am

I would see JetBlue replacing one of the big three carriers by expanding their Mint offering.

I would like to see a situation where an Airbus A380 is retrofitted with "cattle class" seating on the bottom deck, and "premium class" seating on the top deck.
 
HNLSLCPDX
Posts: 256
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Re: Major Expansion B6 at EWR and JFK

Fri Jun 19, 2020 1:22 am

Wish B6 would build up SLC again. Bring back at least SLC-SAN and maybe give SJC and AUS a try from SLC as well. Link up some major tech areas.
 
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A333MSPtoAMS
Posts: 343
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Fri Jun 19, 2020 1:27 am

JFK-MSP is new. I found that one interesting. We've had BOS-MSP for a couple of years. Never really thought we'd get another destination with JB.
As of Dec 2019 I've flown 457,440 miles on 270 flights on 54 airplane types with 60 airlines traveling thru 104 airports. I've visited 60 countries.
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jfklganyc
Posts: 6073
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Fri Jun 19, 2020 1:52 am

The JFK adds are obvious holes that were probably coming anyway:

MSP
DTW
DFW
STT

Who can argue that these arent solid adds?

Boston high frequency business adds have been gobbling up planes the last few years.

Finally they have the lift to give JFK and EWR its due
 
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jfklganyc
Posts: 6073
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Re: Major Expansion B6 at EWR and JFK

Fri Jun 19, 2020 1:56 am

HNLSLCPDX wrote:
Wish B6 would build up SLC again. Bring back at least SLC-SAN and maybe give SJC and AUS a try from SLC as well. Link up some major tech areas.



SLC has gotten a lot of love over last few years:

Daylight JFK
LGB
BOS
MCO
FLL

All hubs are connected
 
tphuang
Posts: 5460
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Re: Major Expansion B6 at EWR and JFK

Fri Jun 19, 2020 1:57 am

It's a lot easier to fill 16 seat J cabin for 3 to 5 flights a day vs 40 to 60 seat J cabin 10 to 12 flights a day. It's hard to see how UA can run exclusively widebodies on EWR-LAX/SFO in this kind of low corporate demand environment. I guess we will find out how many new mint A321s they will take. They only have a few more A321s this year + 5 next year. After that, it's all LRs for the next 2 years. They probably should pick mint config for most if not all of them if they want to have enough to be competitive on EWR-LAX/SFO. Or they will need to pull some aircraft from other mint routes.

SLC won't happen. This is the best opportunity they have to build up NY/NJ presence in a decade. Going to need to concentrate here before other places. Once they are done here, BOS needs to get to 200+ flights and FLL needs to be built back up again. LAX is going to be another growth area in the next few years.
 
Judge1310
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Re: Major Expansion B6 at EWR and JFK

Fri Jun 19, 2020 2:03 am

Midwestindy wrote:
Kirby has not shown any interest in being competitive during the crisis, I don't see UA trying to fight B6 at this point

The strategy appears to be to shrink to profitability at all costs, even if you could end up hurting the business long-term


Actually, Mr Kirby has specifically stated that the Smisek-era playbook of shrinking to profitability is exactly what they *won't* be doing. The primary goal (stated time and time again) is to reduce dail cash-burn, all the while keeping very aware of where to nimbly upgauge and add service. SFO-EWR, today, operated with one 753, one 752, one 787-10, and one 787-8. Some nominal A321s plying the route will not necessarily trounce the route or the EWR hub for UA. Someone posted earlier that it appears that the primary target here is not UA, rather, AS. This seems to be the more plausible ploy here.
 
rj1385
Posts: 121
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Re: Major Expansion B6 at EWR and JFK

Fri Jun 19, 2020 2:13 am

cpl22586 wrote:
F27500 wrote:
B6 completely halted HPN (White Plains, NY) at the outset of the covid situation when they were consolidating their NYC operations to just JFK and EWR.

Any idea when (and hopefully not "if") the HPN service starts again ?


Last I saw was a July 1st startup for PVD; LGA, HPN, SWF; BWI; SJC; BUR and ONT


At least HPN was able to use the downturn in traffic to their advantage.
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The runway is back to normal daily service, but closed at night for grooving the new pavement.
 
tphuang
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Re: Major Expansion B6 at EWR and JFK

Fri Jun 19, 2020 2:41 am

Judge1310 wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
Kirby has not shown any interest in being competitive during the crisis, I don't see UA trying to fight B6 at this point

The strategy appears to be to shrink to profitability at all costs, even if you could end up hurting the business long-term


Actually, Mr Kirby has specifically stated that the Smisek-era playbook of shrinking to profitability is exactly what they *won't* be doing. The primary goal (stated time and time again) is to reduce dail cash-burn, all the while keeping very aware of where to nimbly upgauge and add service. SFO-EWR, today, operated with one 753, one 752, one 787-10, and one 787-8. Some nominal A321s plying the route will not necessarily trounce the route or the EWR hub for UA. Someone posted earlier that it appears that the primary target here is not UA, rather, AS. This seems to be the more plausible ploy here.


Yes, on those specific routes, I'm sure there is some calculation by B6 that AS will give up on SAN/LAX/SFO and AA will cut down on PHX. But as a whole, this is clearly a buildup that will adversely affect UA. 10 to 20 additional flights to Florida by NK and F9 aren't that big of a deal. A B6 buildup with a real network at EWR is actually going to cost UA quite a few non-price sensitive customers. It's not really clear at this point how large of an operation B6 can build at EWR. Obviously, the larger they get, the worse it will be for UA.

I'm of the opinion that Kirby has been dealt with a very tough situation where UA is disproportionately affected by this crisis more than any other airline. Having too many widebodies sitting around right now doing nothing is a byproduct of decisions made by people before him. He is doing what he could to ensure UA's future. But while this is happening, other airlines who are not saddled with the same problems will take advantage of the situation.
 
Flflyer83
Posts: 93
Joined: Tue Apr 14, 2020 4:40 pm

Re: Major Expansion B6 at EWR and JFK

Fri Jun 19, 2020 4:30 am

And Cuomo stated this evening that a 14-day quarantine for travelers arriving to NY from Florida may be imposed soon and once NY does it, many other NE states will follow suit.
 
Jerseyguy
Posts: 2183
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Re: Major Expansion B6 at EWR and JFK

Fri Jun 19, 2020 4:32 am

Some of the flights have been added to Jetblue.com
EWR-AUS $49 (BE) $84 (ECONOMY) (seen some $43 BE fares but not many)
B6 821 EWR 955AM-AUS 1239PM
B6 850 AUS 125PM-EWR 608PM

EWR-SAN $139 (BE) $184 (ECONOMY)
B6 1045 EWR 655PM SAN 931PM
B6 1046 SAN 800AM EWR 427PM

EWR-LAS $49 (BE) $84 (ECONOMY)
B6 957 EWR 800AM LAS 1018AM
B6 1757 EWR 700PM LAS 917PM
--
B6 956 LAS 1115AM EWR 715PM
B6 1756 LAS 1010PM EWR 605AM

EWR-PHX $139 BE $174 (ECONOMY)
B6 141 EWR 835AM PHX 1047AM
B6 941 EWR 754PM PHX 1000PM
--
B6 140 PHX 1135AM EWR 728PM
B6 840 PHX 1049PM EWR 641AM
 
FSDan
Posts: 3340
Joined: Mon Jan 03, 2011 5:27 pm

Re: Major Expansion B6 at EWR and JFK

Fri Jun 19, 2020 4:53 am

MIflyer12 wrote:
FSDan wrote:
HNLSLCPDX wrote:
Wow, B6 really going after UA at EWR and DL at JFK. They are really pushing for the title of New York’s hometown airline.


They already have that title - they're the only major airline based in NYC!


PANYNJ airports NYC, passenger traffic 12-months ending 9/19:

UA, 32.7 million
DL, 32.5 million
B6, 18.0 million
AA, 16.7 million
and to show the gap to #5, WN, 4.2 million

The tag 'Hometown airline' doesn't pay the bills.

https://old.panynj.gov/airports/pdf-tra ... T_2019.pdf


In my mind, "hometown" = HQed there. I certainly wouldn't call B6 "New York's leading airline" or anything like that...
This is my signature until I think of a better one.
 
FSDan
Posts: 3340
Joined: Mon Jan 03, 2011 5:27 pm

Re: Major Expansion B6 at EWR and JFK

Fri Jun 19, 2020 5:09 am

tphuang wrote:
" So if they want to expand at EWR, they need to add more flights. I'd love to see LAX or SFO, but not sure if they have enough mint aircraft around for even 4x on EWR-LAX. Aside from that, stuff like PUJ/MBJ/KIN/CUN/AUA/BGI(more than 1x weekly) all seem to things they can try internationally. And domestically, I think leisure places and large WN stations are all places they can target like MSY/AUS/LAS/SAN and also places they have large enough presence like BUF/JAX/CHS/ACK."
- I got a lot of these EWR markets right. Basically, only missed PHX/SRQ.


Nice call!

tphuang wrote:
AA giving up a lot of slots at JFK and effectively dehubbing it.


Has there been any confirmation of this, or just a strong suspicion (given AA's recent history at JFK, and the recent return of a large number of JFK slots)?
This is my signature until I think of a better one.

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