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trueblew
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Fri Jun 19, 2020 2:21 pm

tphuang wrote:
The link to their big news today of 30 new routes.
http://otp.investis.com/clients/us/jetb ... wsid=69352

It will be interesting how they get enough mint aircraft for the new service. I'd imagine it won't stay at 3x to LAX and 2x to SFO. Especially if they chase AS off those routes as I expect, they should be able to support at least what VX had there. Maybe they can reconfigure some of the all-core A321CEOs to be mint config.



While I'm happy to see this expansion, where are the Mint customers coming from to support this service? Or do they anticipate business travel to resume soon?
 
wnflyguy
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Fri Jun 19, 2020 2:38 pm

Congratulations EWR.
Someone wasn't asleep at the wheel this go around. I mean once WN pulled out of EWR I would have thought B6 would have capitalised on that situation sooner.
Covid 19 definitely gave them a great 2nd chance opportunity.
I'm still baffled at the wasted resources on the low yields at LGB.
With so much power on the east coast I would pull the aircraft from LGB and add them to further grow PHL.

With this relandscaping of the industry JetBlue just needs to kill LGB once and for all.

Flyguy
my post are my opinion only and not those of southwest airlines and or airtran airlines.
 
jplatts
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Fri Jun 19, 2020 2:55 pm

tphuang wrote:
MCO-SFO was a surprise also. If they are intent on filling all the transcons that WN abandoned from MCO. They should add MCO-SAN next.


Here were the load factors on WN MCO-OAK/SAN in 2018 and 2019:
MCO-OAK in 2018 - 83.47%
MCO-OAK in 2019 - 90.79%
MCO-SAN in 2018 - 87.91%
MCO-SAN in 2019 - 91.83%

While the demand was there for WN MCO-OAK/SAN nonstop service prior to the 737 MAX grounding and COVID-19 pandemic, WN dropped MCO-OAK/SAN nonstop service due to the plane shortages that it was facing as a result of the 737 MAX grounding and the decrease in demand for air travel during the COVID-19 pandemic.

WN re-adding MCO-SAN nonstop service is a possibility once WN has more planes back in service and the demand for domestic air travel returns with (a) WN having a much bigger presence than B6 at both MCO and SAN, (b) WN having a FF base in both MCO and SAN to support the return of MCO-SAN nonstop service on WN, and (c) WN being able to fill MCO-SAN nonstop flights prior to the COVID-19 pandemic.

I agree that B6 adding MCO-SAN nonstop service is a possibility, even though WN would have stronger point-of-sale in the SAN market if it re-adds MCO-SAN nonstop service.
 
panam330
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Fri Jun 19, 2020 9:04 pm

Nicknuzzii wrote:
JetBlue EWR departures schedule

5:01 am STI
5:01 am SDQ
5:16 am MCO
...
9:45 pm LAX
10:00 pm SJU
10:16 pm MCO

That is pretty impressive; it would seem that they finally grew a pair. I hope their gamble pays off - I'd like them to stick around, personally. Now if they could just add MEM-JFK/BOS/FLL when they're profitable again, for my own personal convenience, I'd be quite happy. :lol:
 
tphuang
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sun Jun 21, 2020 3:17 am

Just taking a look at late July schedule again and it looks like JetBlue has made their final adjustments. Interesting stuff in that I'm seeing a lot of major JFK routes getting additional flights for that time. They must be seeing some solid booking coming in lately. I think NYC's pentup demand is finally coming out. That should bode well for August schedule also. At this pace, they are going to be at probably close to 100 flights on peak days out of JFK in late July.

Some places I'm seeing more flights are. These are all increased ones I can see.
STI - 6x daily
SDQ - 5x daily
SJU - 4x daily
PAP - 2x daily
KIN - 2x daily
POS - 1x daily
LAX - 6x daily
SFO - 4x daily
ATL - 2x daily
MCO - 6x daily
FLL - 5x daily

The VFR routes to PR/DR are really popular, but even PAP/KIN are back up a little bit. It still seems like they are not oferring enough capacity here, because I'm seeing most of the non-middle seat sold out with well over a month out. Looks like they can't bring these flights back fast enough. Based on the fares I'm seeing, they will make a lot of money on these even with 60% LF. It's too bad DL figured it out and are restarting those routes in Aug. Aside from that, more capacity to Florida and mint also. ATL looks to be doing great. ORD is still not showing up.

Out of Boston, it's more of a mix bag. I'm seeing the short business routes losing frequencies like (PIT/ORD/RDU), but the leisure stuff like Florida gaining frequencies. Again, leisure is coming back much faster than short haul business travel.

Overall, seems like more capacity with the final adjustments.

trueblew wrote:

While I'm happy to see this expansion, where are the Mint customers coming from to support this service? Or do they anticipate business travel to resume soon?

There are a lot of people who would fly JetBlue on NJ side that find JFK too far. This is about gaining new customers also. Looks like they are adding mint flights for July with final adjustments so the premium transcon market looks to be coming back sooner than expected.

trueblew wrote:
They're going to be able to execute that with their current number of gates?

Would be interesting to see hear about how gate allocation work in new terminal 1. I heard its all CUTE, but would think there is preferential access for some gates. Maybe by showing greater ambition here, they will get more preferential gate access in the new terminal. What they had in existing terminal A should be able to support this since other routes (like BOS-EWR) aren't likely to recover to full capacity for a while
 
tphuang
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sun Jun 21, 2020 10:58 am

As an update to the flight count. I took a look at July 26 out of JFK, EWR.

With the added flights, JFK is at 99 for that day and EWR is at 23 (including more PR/DR flights as well as 1x for LAX/SFO). At this pace of increase, we might see them at 120 out of JFK and 35 at EWR sometimes in August.
 
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jfklganyc
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sun Jun 21, 2020 12:29 pm

tphuang wrote:
Just taking a look at late July schedule again and it looks like JetBlue has made their final adjustments. Interesting stuff in that I'm seeing a lot of major JFK routes getting additional flights for that time. They must be seeing some solid booking coming in lately. I think NYC's pentup demand is finally coming out. That should bode well for August schedule also. At this pace, they are going to be at probably close to 100 flights on peak days out of JFK in late July.

Some places I'm seeing more flights are. These are all increased ones I can see.
STI - 6x daily
SDQ - 5x daily
SJU - 4x daily
PAP - 2x daily
KIN - 2x daily
POS - 1x daily
LAX - 6x daily
SFO - 4x daily
ATL - 2x daily
MCO - 6x daily
FLL - 5x daily

The VFR routes to PR/DR are really popular, but even PAP/KIN are back up a little bit. It still seems like they are not oferring enough capacity here, because I'm seeing most of the non-middle seat sold out with well over a month out. Looks like they can't bring these flights back fast enough. Based on the fares I'm seeing, they will make a lot of money on these even with 60% LF. It's too bad DL figured it out and are restarting those routes in Aug. Aside from that, more capacity to Florida and mint also. ATL looks to be doing great. ORD is still not showing up.

Out of Boston, it's more of a mix bag. I'm seeing the short business routes losing frequencies like (PIT/ORD/RDU), but the leisure stuff like Florida gaining frequencies. Again, leisure is coming back much faster than short haul business travel.

Overall, seems like more capacity with the final adjustments.

trueblew wrote:

While I'm happy to see this expansion, where are the Mint customers coming from to support this service? Or do they anticipate business travel to resume soon?

There are a lot of people who would fly JetBlue on NJ side that find JFK too far. This is about gaining new customers also. Looks like they are adding mint flights for July with final adjustments so the premium transcon market looks to be coming back sooner than expected.

trueblew wrote:
They're going to be able to execute that with their current number of gates?

Would be interesting to see hear about how gate allocation work in new terminal 1. I heard its all CUTE, but would think there is preferential access for some gates. Maybe by showing greater ambition here, they will get more preferential gate access in the new terminal. What they had in existing terminal A should be able to support this since other routes (like BOS-EWR) aren't likely to recover to full capacity for a while



The DR is finally opening up.

This was supposed to happen in late May and Jetblue loaded a bunch of flights for June. Then they kept it closed, so Jetblue had to cancel a bunch of flights.

I don’t think people really appreciate what a big piece of the pie the DR is to the JFK operation.

Normally close to 20 flights a day
 
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jfklganyc
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sun Jun 21, 2020 12:31 pm

Looking at the OAG this week, I am surprised by how much Delta is keeping Jfk wide open.

Routes like CLE and RDU with 0 flights for August. Big drawdowns across the board.

UA and DL are leaving their respective hubs wide open for B6 to gain some marketshare
 
tphuang
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sun Jun 21, 2020 12:39 pm

jfklganyc wrote:
Looking at the OAG this week, I am surprised by how much Delta is keeping Jfk wide open.

Routes like CLE and RDU with 0 flights for August. Big drawdowns across the board.

UA and DL are leaving their respective hubs wide open for B6 to gain some marketshare


I'm seeing LGA flights get loaded without cuts on BOS-LGA (at least according to Jetblue.com). Did they get 3 additional slots somewhere?
 
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jfklganyc
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sun Jun 21, 2020 1:49 pm

tphuang wrote:
jfklganyc wrote:
Looking at the OAG this week, I am surprised by how much Delta is keeping Jfk wide open.

Routes like CLE and RDU with 0 flights for August. Big drawdowns across the board.

UA and DL are leaving their respective hubs wide open for B6 to gain some marketshare


I'm seeing LGA flights get loaded without cuts on BOS-LGA (at least according to Jetblue.com). Did they get 3 additional slots somewhere?



that is interesting.

You could go bowling between landings at LGA now

The airport def took it on the chin out of the 3 NY airports

Im sure they could grab a few slots but I just assumed they reduced BOS from 10 daily. They certainly dont need that
 
IdlewildJFK
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sun Jun 21, 2020 6:30 pm

tphuang wrote:
jfklganyc wrote:
Looking at the OAG this week, I am surprised by how much Delta is keeping Jfk wide open.

Routes like CLE and RDU with 0 flights for August. Big drawdowns across the board.

UA and DL are leaving their respective hubs wide open for B6 to gain some marketshare


I'm seeing LGA flights get loaded without cuts on BOS-LGA (at least according to Jetblue.com). Did they get 3 additional slots somewhere?


Honest question, if the FAA is waiving slot usage until late Oct, what’s to stop an airline from going above their allotment until such time as slots are reinstated?
 
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atcsundevil
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sun Jun 21, 2020 7:16 pm

IdlewildJFK wrote:
Honest question, if the FAA is waiving slot usage until late Oct, what’s to stop an airline from going above their allotment until such time as slots are reinstated?

I'm no expert on this, but my understanding is that you can't use slots that you don't have, you just aren't required to utilize the ones you've already got. Under normal circumstances, they'd be required to utilize the slot or risk losing it, so the waiver simply removes that requirement. I would expect the timeframe to be extended through at least next spring though. In other words, the waiver isn't completely undoing the slot system, it's just easing the burden on existing slot holders.
 
CaptCoolHand
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sun Jun 21, 2020 7:37 pm

IdlewildJFK wrote:
tphuang wrote:
jfklganyc wrote:
Looking at the OAG this week, I am surprised by how much Delta is keeping Jfk wide open.

Routes like CLE and RDU with 0 flights for August. Big drawdowns across the board.

UA and DL are leaving their respective hubs wide open for B6 to gain some marketshare


I'm seeing LGA flights get loaded without cuts on BOS-LGA (at least according to Jetblue.com). Did they get 3 additional slots somewhere?


Honest question, if the FAA is waiving slot usage until late Oct, what’s to stop an airline from going above their allotment until such time as slots are reinstated?


In theory. Why not? But I think the point is that running “hot” isn’t making money right now with barely 500k passengers flying every day nation wide.

You could fly over your slot limits, but you could also buy a new truck and put $20k in it and set it on fire 50 times a day too.
 
tphuang
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Mon Jun 22, 2020 2:51 am

jfklganyc wrote:
Looking at the OAG this week, I am surprised by how much Delta is keeping Jfk wide open.

Routes like CLE and RDU with 0 flights for August. Big drawdowns across the board.

UA and DL are leaving their respective hubs wide open for B6 to gain some marketshare


We will see how much further UA and DL cuts for August, but DL's schedule really reflects how weak the Northeast short haul business market is right now. Seems like the transcon stuff is actually coming back faster. With a schedule that offers way more than half of their pre-COVID flights, DL is still only doing 75 a day at LGA/JFK. Hard to see how they go from that to utilizing 80% of their slots anytime soon.

I think B6 should lobby the slot waivers to not extend past November. It's not crazy to think they can fly up to 140x daily by December. Plenty of upsides from LGA slots becoming available, since I can't imagine demand being great in Dec/Jan/Feb. Just say that they are ready to fulfill their slot requirements. I'm sure WN and ULCCs are also willing to end the slot waivers asap. With JFK and EWR all wide open, they really just need about 20 more LGA slots now.
 
tphuang
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Thu Jun 25, 2020 1:28 am

Alright, so this was a disappointing couple of days with now travel restrictions from tri-state to Florida and other states. I'm not sure the quarantines themselves will be that enforceable but the threat of it will problem scare some people from making those trips.

I may look like a fool for saying this, but maybe this won't be as bad for JetBlue as one would think. JetBlue's strategy coming out of this pandemic is increasingly focused around NY/NJ and building a more complete network around NY. While I do anticipate less demand from tri state area to Florida in near term, the new restriction doesn't really hurt their bread and butter VFR flights to DR/PR or mint to Cali (although that may change). Projecting a confidence of having crushed virus may bring more visitors from other states into New York and for New Yorkers to make VFR trips without worrying about hurting their elderly relatives. It remains to be seen whether New Yorkers will delay their vacation plans, drive to nearby beach or change vacation plans from Florida to Caribbeans or other leisure destinations. Maybe it makes sense for them to add a couple of ACK/MVY/HYA flights or bring back JFK-ORD in July. They do need to probably push back starting date on some of the Newark/PHL flights that go to the affected regions from August to October probably.

On another front, maybe they can take another look at entering Canada. AC and WS both look to be significantly more weakened by this than US airlines. JFK-YYZ/YUL from AA will probably be gone. I think there is a good chance WS will be gone from BOS-YYZ. Maybe next year would be the best time for them to enter YYZ/YU from JFK/BOS.
 
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jfklganyc
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Thu Jun 25, 2020 2:09 am

I dont know the effect

The Florida quarantine is a joke on the Florida end

We shall see


More concerning would be the DR not opening on July 1 as planned. They already delayed it once.
 
Nicknuzzii
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sun Jun 28, 2020 2:56 pm

JetBlue is bringing an A321 from LGB to EWR today. I can’t see any departures after it arrives. Does anyone know if this is for gate fitting or what?
 
FARmd90
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sun Jun 28, 2020 6:07 pm

Nicknuzzii wrote:
JetBlue is bringing an A321 from LGB to EWR today. I can’t see any departures after it arrives. Does anyone know if this is for gate fitting or what?


This particular 321 is mint configured. B6 has already sent the core 321 to EWR over this past holiday season to MCO so I can’t imagine that it’s for gate fitting. It’s also odd that since mint doesn’t start till July 23 out EWR they are sending one in now.

If anyone has another answer to this visit it would be great to know!
 
Nicknuzzii
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sun Jun 28, 2020 7:29 pm

FARmd90 wrote:
Nicknuzzii wrote:
JetBlue is bringing an A321 from LGB to EWR today. I can’t see any departures after it arrives. Does anyone know if this is for gate fitting or what?


This particular 321 is mint configured. B6 has already sent the core 321 to EWR over this past holiday season to MCO so I can’t imagine that it’s for gate fitting. It’s also odd that since mint doesn’t start till July 23 out EWR they are sending one in now.

If anyone has another answer to this visit it would be great to know!


Possibly crew familiarization? Nothing really makes sense.
 
tphuang
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sun Jun 28, 2020 7:38 pm

The initial August cuts are in.

They are bringing back most of the stations. LGA/HPN/SWF/BWI/SJC/RNO/SMF/HYA/BUR/ONT/SRQ/BZN are all coming back. I'm sure there are more in there that I'm missing right now.

This is from late July to give a point of reference
JFK - 99
BOS - 83
FLL - 41
EWR - 23

Now from late August Sunday, I see
JFK - 114
the only destinations I see missing completely are CTG, GCM, SJC. Everything else seems to get at least 2x weekly.
EWR - 38
LGA - 9
HPN - 7
BOS - 91
FLL - 51
So these are the initial cuts. They haven't made any kind of adjustments to the new routes they've added. I assume those will get trimmed down at some point once they have some more booking data. Still, that's a lot of flights added back to NY area airports. 38 at EWR would be easily an all time high for them. Again, I do expect that to get adjusted down to closer to 30.

BOS seems like it will take some time to come back. Business market frequencies look to not be coming back at all. They've basically just brought back LGA/BWI/SJC on low frequency and added a couple of other flights. FLL had a decent size increase also, although that could change depending on how bad COVID gets in Florida.

Another sign to show just how little B6 thinks of LGB. For august, here are the weekly frequencies from JFK to thin transcon-ish markets.
BUR - 4
ONT - 4
SMF - 3
PHX - 4
PDX - 3
BZN - 3
RNO - 3
LGB - 2
ABQ - 4
So basically, JetBlue is running fewer flights to LGB than Bozeman, Ontario and Reno in August. Not looking good.
 
HNLSLCPDX
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sun Jun 28, 2020 8:53 pm

I think LGB as a B6 focus city is toast. I think once B6 makes its final cuts on LGB, I’m guessing LAS, JFK, and SLC are all that remain giving LGB around six or seven flights a day. Something along the lines of LAS 3x, JFK 1x, SLC 3x daily.

Not sure what B6 plans are out west going forward. It seems their focus is more and more centered around the east coast and specifically upper NE. Maybe the only real focus they’ll have going forward out west is transcons from LAX and SFO and making sure these with their Mint product give them some type of exposure and relevance out on the west coast.

Once everything calms down a bit I think B6 has a loyal enough frequent flyer base and name recognition that’s large enough in SLC to make it a small focus city, even though it’s a strong DL hub. B6 at SLC already flies BOS, FLL, MCO, LGB, and JFK. I think there are some cities that B6 could add from SLC where they could potentially find success such as AUS, SFO, SAN, TPA, and IAD.
 
Nicknuzzii
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sun Jun 28, 2020 9:19 pm

tphuang wrote:
The initial August cuts are in.

They are bringing back most of the stations. LGA/HPN/SWF/BWI/SJC/RNO/SMF/HYA/BUR/ONT/SRQ/BZN are all coming back. I'm sure there are more in there that I'm missing right now.

This is from late July to give a point of reference
JFK - 99
BOS - 83
FLL - 41
EWR - 23

Now from late August Sunday, I see
JFK - 114
the only destinations I see missing completely are CTG, GCM, SJC. Everything else seems to get at least 2x weekly.
EWR - 38
LGA - 9
HPN - 7
BOS - 91
FLL - 51
So these are the initial cuts. They haven't made any kind of adjustments to the new routes they've added. I assume those will get trimmed down at some point once they have some more booking data. Still, that's a lot of flights added back to NY area airports. 38 at EWR would be easily an all time high for them. Again, I do expect that to get adjusted down to closer to 30.

BOS seems like it will take some time to come back. Business market frequencies look to not be coming back at all. They've basically just brought back LGA/BWI/SJC on low frequency and added a couple of other flights. FLL had a decent size increase also, although that could change depending on how bad COVID gets in Florida.

Another sign to show just how little B6 thinks of LGB. For august, here are the weekly frequencies from JFK to thin transcon-ish markets.
BUR - 4
ONT - 4
SMF - 3
PHX - 4
PDX - 3
BZN - 3
RNO - 3
LGB - 2
ABQ - 4
So basically, JetBlue is running fewer flights to LGB than Bozeman, Ontario and Reno in August. Not looking good.


Can you post the breakdown of flights for EWR please?
 
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jfklganyc
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sun Jun 28, 2020 10:20 pm

Wasnt EWR running close to 40 flights before?
 
Nicknuzzii
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sun Jun 28, 2020 10:59 pm

jfklganyc wrote:
Wasnt EWR running close to 40 flights before?


25 ish last summer, 32 were planned for this summer but we all know what happened there.
 
tphuang
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sun Jun 28, 2020 11:23 pm

jfklganyc wrote:
Wasnt EWR running close to 40 flights before?

The most I've ever counted was 31. They scheduled in 35 for May and 29 for Summer before this. JetBlue trying to run 40 flights on 4 gates would not be a pretty sight.

HNLSLCPDX wrote:
I think LGB as a B6 focus city is toast. I think once B6 makes its final cuts on LGB, I’m guessing LAS, JFK, and SLC are all that remain giving LGB around six or seven flights a day. Something along the lines of LAS 3x, JFK 1x, SLC 3x daily.

Not sure what B6 plans are out west going forward. It seems their focus is more and more centered around the east coast and specifically upper NE. Maybe the only real focus they’ll have going forward out west is transcons from LAX and SFO and making sure these with their Mint product give them some type of exposure and relevance out on the west coast.

Once everything calms down a bit I think B6 has a loyal enough frequent flyer base and name recognition that’s large enough in SLC to make it a small focus city, even though it’s a strong DL hub. B6 at SLC already flies BOS, FLL, MCO, LGB, and JFK. I think there are some cities that B6 could add from SLC where they could potentially find success such as AUS, SFO, SAN, TPA, and IAD.


It seems to me LAX is where they are going to be at. I'm really looking to find out where they are going to be at LAX (T5 or MSC or somewhere else?) and how many gates they will get.

At LAX, they are already back to 18 flights a day, just 4 under what they scheduled pre-COVID for summer. And that includes pricing O/W on MCO-LAX at $54. That's something serious commitment to both MCO and LAX.

It seems to me that the easiest thing they can do is to just shift all the non-transcon LGB flight to LAX. So basically 3x LAS, 2x SFO, 1x RNO, 1x AUS, 3x SLC, 2x SEA and 1x PDX. But they do reasonably well on SLC/SEA-LGB, that I'm not sure they can actually duplicate out of LAX. A more logical set up at LAX maybe 4x LAS, 1x RNO, 1x BZN, 3x SLC, 3x SFO, 1x SJD, 1x PVR. Add some more transcon to East coast. Now, you have like a 40 to 50 flight station that can have some north/south feed to Mexican resorts and also east/west feed from east coast.
 
HNLSLCPDX
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sun Jun 28, 2020 11:33 pm

tphuang wrote:
jfklganyc wrote:
Wasnt EWR running close to 40 flights before?

The most I've ever counted was 31. They scheduled in 35 for May and 29 for Summer before this. JetBlue trying to run 40 flights on 4 gates would not be a pretty sight.

HNLSLCPDX wrote:
I think LGB as a B6 focus city is toast. I think once B6 makes its final cuts on LGB, I’m guessing LAS, JFK, and SLC are all that remain giving LGB around six or seven flights a day. Something along the lines of LAS 3x, JFK 1x, SLC 3x daily.

Not sure what B6 plans are out west going forward. It seems their focus is more and more centered around the east coast and specifically upper NE. Maybe the only real focus they’ll have going forward out west is transcons from LAX and SFO and making sure these with their Mint product give them some type of exposure and relevance out on the west coast.

Once everything calms down a bit I think B6 has a loyal enough frequent flyer base and name recognition that’s large enough in SLC to make it a small focus city, even though it’s a strong DL hub. B6 at SLC already flies BOS, FLL, MCO, LGB, and JFK. I think there are some cities that B6 could add from SLC where they could potentially find success such as AUS, SFO, SAN, TPA, and IAD.


It seems to me LAX is where they are going to be at. I'm really looking to find out where they are going to be at LAX (T5 or MSC or somewhere else?) and how many gates they will get.

At LAX, they are already back to 18 flights a day, just 4 under what they scheduled pre-COVID for summer. And that includes pricing O/W on MCO-LAX at $54. That's something serious commitment to both MCO and LAX.

It seems to me that the easiest thing they can do is to just shift all the non-transcon LGB flight to LAX. So basically 3x LAS, 2x SFO, 1x RNO, 1x AUS, 3x SLC, 2x SEA and 1x PDX. But they do reasonably well on SLC/SEA-LGB, that I'm not sure they can actually duplicate out of LAX. A more logical set up at LAX maybe 4x LAS, 1x RNO, 1x BZN, 3x SLC, 3x SFO, 1x SJD, 1x PVR. Add some more transcon to East coast. Now, you have like a 40 to 50 flight station that can have some north/south feed to Mexican resorts and also east/west feed from east coast.


Not sure they would get the same results as some of those existing routes that are at LGB such as SLC/SEA/LAS/RNO, etc. would work LAX. Part of the appeal of LGB is that it’s never crowded, customer friendly, and it simply not being LAX.
 
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jfklganyc
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Mon Jun 29, 2020 12:03 am

They have 5 gates at EWR.

4 in A1 and 1 in A3

Also, plenty of empty gates.

All of A2 is closed at the moment
 
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jfklganyc
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:14 pm

tphuang wrote:
The initial August cuts are in.

They are bringing back most of the stations. LGA/HPN/SWF/BWI/SJC/RNO/SMF/HYA/BUR/ONT/SRQ/BZN are all coming back. I'm sure there are more in there that I'm missing right now.

This is from late July to give a point of reference
JFK - 99
BOS - 83
FLL - 41
EWR - 23

Now from late August Sunday, I see
JFK - 114
the only destinations I see missing completely are CTG, GCM, SJC. Everything else seems to get at least 2x weekly.
EWR - 38
LGA - 9
HPN - 7
BOS - 91
FLL - 51
So these are the initial cuts. They haven't made any kind of adjustments to the new routes they've added. I assume those will get trimmed down at some point once they have some more booking data. Still, that's a lot of flights added back to NY area airports. 38 at EWR would be easily an all time high for them. Again, I do expect that to get adjusted down to closer to 30.

BOS seems like it will take some time to come back. Business market frequencies look to not be coming back at all. They've basically just brought back LGA/BWI/SJC on low frequency and added a couple of other flights. FLL had a decent size increase also, although that could change depending on how bad COVID gets in Florida.

Another sign to show just how little B6 thinks of LGB. For august, here are the weekly frequencies from JFK to thin transcon-ish markets.
BUR - 4
ONT - 4
SMF - 3
PHX - 4
PDX - 3
BZN - 3
RNO - 3
LGB - 2
ABQ - 4
So basically, JetBlue is running fewer flights to LGB than Bozeman, Ontario and Reno in August. Not looking good.


You should include San Juan

All of a sudden San Juan is the darling “hub.” Good percentage of flights back. Good loads

I wouldn’t be surprised to see renewed emphasis going forward
 
tphuang
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:56 pm

Good point, San Juan is looking very good.
I'm seeing 30 flights on July 26th out of SJU and 31 flights on Aug 23rd. That's about 2/3 to 3/4 of what they had scheduled into SJU pre-COVID..

I wonder if there will also be more leisure demand to PR if Florida loses its appeal from closing stuff down. Other possibilities are increasing demand to PUJ/MBJ/CUN/AUA if Northeasters get nervous about traveling to sunbelt states.

https://crankyflier.com/2020/06/30/alas ... k-in-july/
An article on AS pulling back in July. Would not be surprised if we see similar close-in cuts for JetBlue. The other thing to note is that AS is pulling back rather than countering JetBlue on those transcon adds. Not surprising to me.
 
Boston757
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:57 pm

How’s London coming along? Where are they in their Etops? What aircraft?
 
JoseSalazar
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Tue Jun 30, 2020 4:02 pm

Boston757 wrote:
How’s London coming along? Where are they in their Etops? What aircraft?

Delayed a couple months. Still taking delivery of 5 A321LRs next year.
 
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aemoreira1981
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Tue Jun 30, 2020 4:03 pm

I have to wonder now with CA on the tri-state quarantine list, along with NV, how many of these routes will be postponed.
 
CobaltScar
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Tue Jun 30, 2020 4:08 pm

HNLSLCPDX wrote:
Not sure they would get the same results as some of those existing routes that are at LGB such as SLC/SEA/LAS/RNO, etc. would work LAX. Part of the appeal of LGB is that it’s never crowded, customer friendly, and it simply not being LAX.


Right, not sure that short haul out of LAX is worth it for a non-west coast airline like B6.

BUR and SNA needs attention. A modified mint configured A220-300 out of them. Those people will pay well to avoid LAX. LGB people won't.

The west coast solution for B6 is similar to AA's solution. They need a partner to handle all the short haul for them and feed their transcons. Why they don't just go forward and do this with Alaska is beyond me. Let Alaska continue to be the large regional airline it is throughout the western 3rd of the country and let B6 handle the transcons and east coast/Europe.
 
Dieuwer
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Tue Jun 30, 2020 4:11 pm

CobaltScar wrote:
HNLSLCPDX wrote:
Not sure they would get the same results as some of those existing routes that are at LGB such as SLC/SEA/LAS/RNO, etc. would work LAX. Part of the appeal of LGB is that it’s never crowded, customer friendly, and it simply not being LAX.


Right, not sure that short haul out of LAX is worth it for a non-west coast airline like B6.

BUR and SNA needs attention. A modified mint configured A220-300 out of them. Those people will pay well to avoid LAX. LGB people won't.

The west coast solution for B6 is similar to AA's solution. They need a partner to handle all the short haul for them and feed their transcons. Why they don't just go forward and do this with Alaska is beyond me. Let Alaska continue to be the large regional airline it is throughout the western 3rd of the country and let B6 handle the transcons and east coast/Europe.


AA and AS became buddies last year. AS even going to join OneWorld. AA would not look kindly at B6 hooking up with AS.
 
tphuang
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Tue Jun 30, 2020 7:58 pm

So Cuomo and tri state have increased quarantine list to 16 states. He is making at least some threats of adding some teeth to enforcement which would be a problem for JetBlue, especially since demand to places like California have been recovering. With these announcements, I'm not too optimistic about demand other than to DR/PR.

I don't think it's out of realm of possibility that B6 has some level of partnership with AA/AS to help OW presence in northeast. After all, they did announce a reprotection partnership a couple of months ago, although not much seem to have happened with it. At this point, I think partnership with DL & UA are both not possible.
 
Nicknuzzii
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Tue Jun 30, 2020 8:07 pm

tphuang wrote:
So Cuomo and tri state have increased quarantine list to 16 states. He is making at least some threats of adding some teeth to enforcement which would be a problem for JetBlue, especially since demand to places like California have been recovering. With these announcements, I'm not too optimistic about demand other than to DR/PR.

I don't think it's out of realm of possibility that B6 has some level of partnership with AA/AS to help OW presence in northeast. After all, they did announce a reprotection partnership a couple of months ago, although not much seem to have happened with it. At this point, I think partnership with DL & UA are both not possible.


One thing to note is the quarantine for NJ is voluntary.
 
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VS4ever
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Tue Jun 30, 2020 8:08 pm

tphuang wrote:
So Cuomo and tri state have increased quarantine list to 16 states. He is making at least some threats of adding some teeth to enforcement which would be a problem for JetBlue, especially since demand to places like California have been recovering. With these announcements, I'm not too optimistic about demand other than to DR/PR.

I don't think it's out of realm of possibility that B6 has some level of partnership with AA/AS to help OW presence in northeast. After all, they did announce a reprotection partnership a couple of months ago, although not much seem to have happened with it. At this point, I think partnership with DL & UA are both not possible.


Not to be outdone. Baker in MA has gone for a quarantine list of 43 states (basically everyone not from New England,NY or NJ), that’s going to hurt.
That feeling when you sit at the end of a runway, brakes are released and the raw power takes over. Now that is a thing of beauty and it never gets old.
 
Dieuwer
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Tue Jun 30, 2020 8:12 pm

VS4ever wrote:
tphuang wrote:
So Cuomo and tri state have increased quarantine list to 16 states. He is making at least some threats of adding some teeth to enforcement which would be a problem for JetBlue, especially since demand to places like California have been recovering. With these announcements, I'm not too optimistic about demand other than to DR/PR.

I don't think it's out of realm of possibility that B6 has some level of partnership with AA/AS to help OW presence in northeast. After all, they did announce a reprotection partnership a couple of months ago, although not much seem to have happened with it. At this point, I think partnership with DL & UA are both not possible.


Not to be outdone. Baker in MA has gone for a quarantine list of 43 states (basically everyone not from New England,NY or NJ), that’s going to hurt.


It start to look like the "Quarantine Wars".
YOU SLAP ME, I SLAP YOU! ;)
 
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STT757
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Tue Jun 30, 2020 8:23 pm

All these State vs. State quarantines are the number one reasons why the Federal Government needs to lead the pandemic response and not left up to local governments.
Eastern Air lines flt # 701, EWR-MCO Boeing 757
 
CobaltScar
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Tue Jun 30, 2020 8:25 pm

I'm hearing Puerto Rico is going to require covid tests for those arriving. That will kill a ton of demand to PR.
 
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jfklganyc
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Tue Jun 30, 2020 10:35 pm

STT757 wrote:
All these State vs. State quarantines are the number one reasons why the Federal Government needs to lead the pandemic response and not left up to local governments.



Bingo!

Furthermore, the more states they add to it, the more they weaken its enforcement and compliance.

You can’t force people to stay in your state.

Hawaii is the exception to the rule because they are an island thousands of miles from anywhere



Beyond that none of this is enforceable, and people are flying
 
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jfklganyc
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Tue Jun 30, 2020 10:39 pm

VS4ever wrote:
tphuang wrote:
So Cuomo and tri state have increased quarantine list to 16 states. He is making at least some threats of adding some teeth to enforcement which would be a problem for JetBlue, especially since demand to places like California have been recovering. With these announcements, I'm not too optimistic about demand other than to DR/PR.

I don't think it's out of realm of possibility that B6 has some level of partnership with AA/AS to help OW presence in northeast. After all, they did announce a reprotection partnership a couple of months ago, although not much seem to have happened with it. At this point, I think partnership with DL & UA are both not possible.


Not to be outdone. Baker in MA has gone for a quarantine list of 43 states (basically everyone not from New England,NY or NJ), that’s going to hurt.


It’s not going to hurt because it’s unenforceable.

The size and scope is just too great to monitor.

There may be random enforcement but beyond that most people will be just fine
 
IdlewildJFK
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Wed Jul 01, 2020 12:14 am

VS4ever wrote:
tphuang wrote:
So Cuomo and tri state have increased quarantine list to 16 states. He is making at least some threats of adding some teeth to enforcement which would be a problem for JetBlue, especially since demand to places like California have been recovering. With these announcements, I'm not too optimistic about demand other than to DR/PR.

I don't think it's out of realm of possibility that B6 has some level of partnership with AA/AS to help OW presence in northeast. After all, they did announce a reprotection partnership a couple of months ago, although not much seem to have happened with it. At this point, I think partnership with DL & UA are both not possible.


Not to be outdone. Baker in MA has gone for a quarantine list of 43 states (basically everyone not from New England,NY or NJ), that’s going to hurt.


The list had been all 50 states for months. 7 were just removed. This is an improvement over what it was. So it’s not going to hurt anymore than it had been for the past few months that it was already in place. With the 7 states that were removed all drivable, it may not help airlines all that much, but I don’t see how this change hurts them?
 
cpl22586
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Wed Jul 01, 2020 3:59 am

 
HNLSLCPDX
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Wed Jul 01, 2020 5:41 am

Does anyone know why B6’s IAD focus city didn’t work out? I remember the older B6 route maps and IAD was a focus city to several destinations.
 
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jfklganyc
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Wed Jul 01, 2020 10:48 am

HNLSLCPDX wrote:
Does anyone know why B6’s IAD focus city didn’t work out? I remember the older B6 route maps and IAD was a focus city to several destinations.



It’s not that it didn’t work out.

How much smaller airline, and they got a bunch of DCA and LGA slots.

At the time they needed the planes elsewhere, and they never built it back up because it was probably marginal

AUS and IAD Are the two biggest mistakes in Jetblue short history
 
wnflyguy
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Wed Jul 01, 2020 3:10 pm

jfklganyc wrote:
HNLSLCPDX wrote:
Does anyone know why B6’s IAD focus city didn’t work out? I remember the older B6 route maps and IAD was a focus city to several destinations.



It’s not that it didn’t work out.

How much smaller airline, and they got a bunch of DCA and LGA slots.

At the time they needed the planes elsewhere, and they never built it back up because it was probably marginal

AUS and IAD Are the two biggest mistakes in Jetblue short history


Once JetBlue made a plan to build up IAD WN immediately jumping into the market to defend it's back yard. It couldn't let B6 grow IAD because that would have hurt WNs BWI marketshare.

And Once B6 pulled away from IAD WN quickly scale down IAD to a small spoke city.

Same thing with DCA JetBlue going for massive slots WN saw the threat and had to buy into the market to fight.


Flyguy
my post are my opinion only and not those of southwest airlines and or airtran airlines.
 
tphuang
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Wed Jul 01, 2020 9:15 pm

Well, this is a nice news for everyone
https://paxex.aero/2020/07/jetblue-pilo ... pril-2021/

Good for the pilots. Would allow JetBlue to add back capacity faster if demand snaps back in the winter.
 
HNLSLCPDX
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Wed Jul 01, 2020 10:09 pm

wnflyguy wrote:
jfklganyc wrote:
HNLSLCPDX wrote:
Does anyone know why B6’s IAD focus city didn’t work out? I remember the older B6 route maps and IAD was a focus city to several destinations.



It’s not that it didn’t work out.

How much smaller airline, and they got a bunch of DCA and LGA slots.

At the time they needed the planes elsewhere, and they never built it back up because it was probably marginal

AUS and IAD Are the two biggest mistakes in Jetblue short history


Once JetBlue made a plan to build up IAD WN immediately jumping into the market to defend it's back yard. It couldn't let B6 grow IAD because that would have hurt WNs BWI marketshare.

And Once B6 pulled away from IAD WN quickly scale down IAD to a small spoke city.

Same thing with DCA JetBlue going for massive slots WN saw the threat and had to buy into the market to fight.


Flyguy

Agree on AUS. They definitely had an opportunity to make it a focus city.
 
tphuang
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Thu Jul 02, 2020 12:12 pm

As we turn into July, a look at how many flights JetBlue is bringing back at each of the major focus cities vs competitors

JFK: B6 at 85, DL at 48, AA at 11
BOS: B6 at 77, DL at 25, AA at 29
FLL: B6 at 39, WN at 39, NK at 57 - NK is definitely bringing things back really fast in July vs June

AA appears to still be on June schedule, so those numbers should go up a week from no. Everyone else should be on July schedule. Huge jump for JetBlue from June to July.

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