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tphuang
Posts: 5076
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Thu Jul 02, 2020 12:12 pm

As we turn into July, a look at how many flights JetBlue is bringing back at each of the major focus cities vs competitors

JFK: B6 at 85, DL at 48, AA at 11
BOS: B6 at 77, DL at 25, AA at 29
FLL: B6 at 39, WN at 39, NK at 57 - NK is definitely bringing things back really fast in July vs June

AA appears to still be on June schedule, so those numbers should go up a week from no. Everyone else should be on July schedule. Huge jump for JetBlue from June to July.
 
Flflyer83
Posts: 54
Joined: Tue Apr 14, 2020 4:40 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Thu Jul 02, 2020 1:03 pm

tphuang wrote:
As we turn into July, a look at how many flights JetBlue is bringing back at each of the major focus cities vs competitors

JFK: B6 at 85, DL at 48, AA at 11
BOS: B6 at 77, DL at 25, AA at 29
FLL: B6 at 39, WN at 39, NK at 57 - NK is definitely bringing things back really fast in July vs June

AA appears to still be on June schedule, so those numbers should go up a week from no. Everyone else should be on July schedule. Huge jump for JetBlue from June to July.


Comparing apples to oranges here as these “major focus cities” compose 95% of JetBlue’s operation. A better comparison would be to measure overall ASM now compared to same time last year.
 
CaptainObvious1
Posts: 50
Joined: Sat Apr 11, 2020 11:22 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Thu Jul 02, 2020 4:12 pm

tphuang wrote:
Well, this is a nice news for everyone
https://paxex.aero/2020/07/jetblue-pilo ... pril-2021/

Good for the pilots. Would allow JetBlue to add back capacity faster if demand snaps back in the winter.


The question is... what is the union being asked to give up in exchange for no furloughs? Right now it is a 70 hour guarantee per month, could this be lowered to 60 or 50 in exchange for no furloughs?
 
tphuang
Posts: 5076
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Thu Jul 02, 2020 8:23 pm

CaptainObvious1 wrote:
tphuang wrote:
Well, this is a nice news for everyone
https://paxex.aero/2020/07/jetblue-pilo ... pril-2021/

Good for the pilots. Would allow JetBlue to add back capacity faster if demand snaps back in the winter.


The question is... what is the union being asked to give up in exchange for no furloughs? Right now it is a 70 hour guarantee per month, could this be lowered to 60 or 50 in exchange for no furloughs?


very few people know the answer to that question right now.

Anyway, looks like JetBlue might be able to avoid furlough company wide.

https://paxex.aero/2020/07/jetblue-hits ... tion-plan/
Looks like support center and salaried staff are most likely to see layoffs.
 
TonyClifton
Posts: 198
Joined: Thu May 14, 2020 3:19 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Thu Jul 02, 2020 8:36 pm

CaptainObvious1 wrote:
tphuang wrote:
Well, this is a nice news for everyone
https://paxex.aero/2020/07/jetblue-pilo ... pril-2021/

Good for the pilots. Would allow JetBlue to add back capacity faster if demand snaps back in the winter.


The question is... what is the union being asked to give up in exchange for no furloughs? Right now it is a 70 hour guarantee per month, could this be lowered to 60 or 50 in exchange for no furloughs?

That would be my guess, temporary ALV reduction for the duration of the no furlough agreement.
 
JoseSalazar
Posts: 190
Joined: Mon Oct 14, 2019 3:18 am

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Thu Jul 02, 2020 8:53 pm

TonyClifton wrote:
CaptainObvious1 wrote:
tphuang wrote:
Well, this is a nice news for everyone
https://paxex.aero/2020/07/jetblue-pilo ... pril-2021/

Good for the pilots. Would allow JetBlue to add back capacity faster if demand snaps back in the winter.


The question is... what is the union being asked to give up in exchange for no furloughs? Right now it is a 70 hour guarantee per month, could this be lowered to 60 or 50 in exchange for no furloughs?

That would be my guess, temporary ALV reduction for the duration of the no furlough agreement.


To be clear, an ALV reduction is different than a reduction in credit guarantee. They could reduce ALV (currently 74 min) to say 50....but would still have to pay min guarantee. A reduction in pay guarantee would require membership ratification per the B6ALPA policy manual, which didn’t happen. Guess we will see soon enough what the details are.
 
TonyClifton
Posts: 198
Joined: Thu May 14, 2020 3:19 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Thu Jul 02, 2020 8:56 pm

JoseSalazar wrote:
TonyClifton wrote:
CaptainObvious1 wrote:

The question is... what is the union being asked to give up in exchange for no furloughs? Right now it is a 70 hour guarantee per month, could this be lowered to 60 or 50 in exchange for no furloughs?

That would be my guess, temporary ALV reduction for the duration of the no furlough agreement.


To be clear, an ALV reduction is different than a reduction in credit guarantee. They could reduce ALV (currently 74 min) to say 50....but would still have to pay min guarantee. A reduction in pay guarantee would require membership ratification per the B6ALPA policy manual, which didn’t happen. Guess we will see soon enough what the details are.

What options are available in Sec23 for furlough mitigation? Don’t have a copy of the B6 CBA on the hard drive :/
 
JoseSalazar
Posts: 190
Joined: Mon Oct 14, 2019 3:18 am

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Thu Jul 02, 2020 9:16 pm

TonyClifton wrote:
JoseSalazar wrote:
TonyClifton wrote:
That would be my guess, temporary ALV reduction for the duration of the no furlough agreement.


To be clear, an ALV reduction is different than a reduction in credit guarantee. They could reduce ALV (currently 74 min) to say 50....but would still have to pay min guarantee. A reduction in pay guarantee would require membership ratification per the B6ALPA policy manual, which didn’t happen. Guess we will see soon enough what the details are.

What options are available in Sec23 for furlough mitigation? Don’t have a copy of the B6 CBA on the hard drive :/


including but not limited to the following items:
1 Bid divisors
2 RSV periods
3 Credit caps
4 Part time awards
5 Early retirement incentives

Alpa policy manual says the MEC will seek membership ratification of other proposed agreements or Letters of Agreement which modify contractual pay or that significantly modify work rules. That didn’t happen, so in theory contractual pay wasn’t touched. We will see what work rules were changed and what their definition of “not significant” is when the details emerge.
 
TonyClifton
Posts: 198
Joined: Thu May 14, 2020 3:19 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Thu Jul 02, 2020 9:22 pm

JoseSalazar wrote:
TonyClifton wrote:
JoseSalazar wrote:

To be clear, an ALV reduction is different than a reduction in credit guarantee. They could reduce ALV (currently 74 min) to say 50....but would still have to pay min guarantee. A reduction in pay guarantee would require membership ratification per the B6ALPA policy manual, which didn’t happen. Guess we will see soon enough what the details are.

What options are available in Sec23 for furlough mitigation? Don’t have a copy of the B6 CBA on the hard drive :/


including but not limited to the following items:
1 Bid divisors
2 RSV periods
3 Credit caps
4 Part time awards
5 Early retirement incentives

Alpa policy manual says the MEC will seek membership ratification of other proposed agreements or Letters of Agreement which modify contractual pay or that significantly modify work rules. That didn’t happen, so in theory contractual pay wasn’t touched. We will see what work rules were changed and what their definition of “not significant” is when the details emerge.

It’ll definitely set the new bar for what other airlines and pilot groups negotiate going forward. Very curious to see, but relieved for my friends at JB who will be employed for the next year at least.
 
tphuang
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Thu Jul 02, 2020 9:49 pm

If demand is still so low by next may that they need to do furlough, the entire industry is in trouble.
 
TonyClifton
Posts: 198
Joined: Thu May 14, 2020 3:19 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Thu Jul 02, 2020 9:53 pm

tphuang wrote:
If demand is still so low by next may that they need to do furlough, the entire industry is in trouble.

Fully agreed there. May might be long enough to weather this storm and hopefully bridge the gap to a vaccine and treatment.
 
tphuang
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Fri Jul 03, 2020 2:57 am

May is a rather interesting time to pick. If I had to guess, the next time we see a spike in demand will be Christmas to NY. And after that, I'd anticipate demand to not pick up again until March break. Once April and May comes around, I think JetBlue is expecting there to be a lot of pent up travel demand if we achieve herd immunity by then through vaccination. Who knows where business demand out of BOS will look like, but VFR/leisure demand for NY/Boston/Florida should be back to pretty high level.

Having all the pilots around in April/May would be a good time for them to quickly claim slots at JFK/LGA and add flights at EWR before legacies are ready to do so. It would seem to me like JetBlue management is taking a healthy worthwhile gamble here to gain market share next year. It makes me more optimistic than a week ago that most of their recently announced new routes will actually go forward as planned, especially JFK/EWR ones.

Given that I do think there is some risk here, it would make sense for them to get additional loan from federal gov't. And additional billion dollar would give them the war chest to compete with all that ULCC pressure.
 
Blueknows
Posts: 414
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Fri Jul 03, 2020 9:47 am

17 cities total outsourced to business partner model. B6 will have B6 supervisors and manger. The inside and outside will be contract. Start date OCT 1st.
Btv,msp,orh,sav,roc,syr,sav,bur,dfw,abq,rno,srq,ric,cle,alb,dtw,den
 
Blueknows
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Fri Jul 03, 2020 12:01 pm

Updated PDX- SMF-IAH added to list
 
USAavdork
Posts: 83
Joined: Sat Mar 11, 2017 7:35 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Fri Jul 03, 2020 1:38 pm

Blueknows: Where do you see that? The app won’t even let book PDX-IAH.
 
ericm2031
Posts: 1380
Joined: Tue Jun 19, 2012 8:46 am

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Fri Jul 03, 2020 2:50 pm

USAavdork wrote:
Blueknows: Where do you see that? The app won’t even let book PDX-IAH.


I think those were more added outsourced stations, not a route
 
Blueknows
Posts: 414
Joined: Fri Oct 19, 2018 3:31 am

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Fri Jul 03, 2020 4:17 pm

Outsourced..B6 is getting rid of west coast travel intra California.By fall LGB PRETTY MUCH GONE
 
dca1
Posts: 20
Joined: Sun Sep 01, 2019 7:39 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Fri Jul 03, 2020 10:25 pm

Blueknows wrote:
17 cities total outsourced to business partner model. B6 will have B6 supervisors and manger. The inside and outside will be contract. Start date OCT 1st.
Btv,msp,orh,sav,roc,syr,sav,bur,dfw,abq,rno,srq,ric,cle,alb,dtw,den


Any ideas as to why DFW was outsourced but IAH was not? Any chance of possible expansion out of IAH station?
 
User avatar
LAXintl
Posts: 24521
Joined: Wed May 24, 2000 12:12 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Fri Jul 03, 2020 10:38 pm

dca1 wrote:
Blueknows wrote:
17 cities total outsourced to business partner model. B6 will have B6 supervisors and manger. The inside and outside will be contract. Start date OCT 1st.
Btv,msp,orh,sav,roc,syr,sav,bur,dfw,abq,rno,srq,ric,cle,alb,dtw,den


Any ideas as to why DFW was outsourced but IAH was not? Any chance of possible expansion out of IAH station?


Houston is being outsourced.

I posted the full and correct list on the outsourcing thread.
From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
 
ROCDLFAN
Posts: 256
Joined: Fri May 01, 2015 2:43 am

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sat Jul 04, 2020 4:45 am

So just to confirm- the Station Manager and Supervisors within the station will remain B6 but the actual employees will be contracted? Assuming the contractor has their own in station manager as well? Either I’m misunderstanding which is a distinct possibility or this sounds like a jumbled mess.
"The strength of the turbulence is directly proportional to the temperature of your coffee."
 
trueblew
Posts: 123
Joined: Thu Nov 15, 2018 10:16 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sat Jul 04, 2020 11:26 am

ROCDLFAN wrote:
So just to confirm- the Station Manager and Supervisors within the station will remain B6 but the actual employees will be contracted? Assuming the contractor has their own in station manager as well? Either I’m misunderstanding which is a distinct possibility or this sounds like a jumbled mess.


It's not unique or new in the industry to have a mainline-employed station manager overseeing outsourced station agents.
 
Boston757
Posts: 101
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sat Jul 04, 2020 4:44 pm

How’s it going with the FA group? Spirit seems to be up and running and I haven’t heard of an overage of FAs. However, the operate on a thin margin AA had a huge overage with the decrease of all the trans pacific and Atlantic flying not to mention Deep South America. I assume the Big 2 are in the same boat. Alaska FAs said they will know more by the end of July.
 
CobaltScar
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sat Jul 04, 2020 5:27 pm

Boston757 wrote:
How’s it going with the FA group? Spirit seems to be up and running and I haven’t heard of an overage of FAs. However, the operate on a thin margin AA had a huge overage with the decrease of all the trans pacific and Atlantic flying not to mention Deep South America. I assume the Big 2 are in the same boat. Alaska FAs said they will know more by the end of July.


You will know the answer to this in under 2 weeks.
 
tphuang
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Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sat Jul 04, 2020 6:31 pm

Boston757 wrote:
How’s it going with the FA group? Spirit seems to be up and running and I haven’t heard of an overage of FAs. However, the operate on a thin margin AA had a huge overage with the decrease of all the trans pacific and Atlantic flying not to mention Deep South America. I assume the Big 2 are in the same boat. Alaska FAs said they will know more by the end of July.


Given that JetBlue is not doing involuntary layoffs of pilots, I would imagine they would try to work out something similar with flight attendants. Hard to fly the planes without flight attendants on them. There is also some unmeasurable value in keeping morale high in your pilot and flight attendants by not doing any involuntary furlough in the worst crisis facing the airline industry that we can all remember. Especially when that relationship had been fractured from contract negotiations.

JetBlue is going to need its crew member if it wants to take up the temporary void left over by legacy carriers in the northeast. Especially since ua and dl are going to really piss of their pilots and flight attendants with massive furlough.

It’s the salaried employees that I am afraid are likely to see some involuntary layoffs or pay reductions.

As for other airlines, I think nk and f9 are going to do pretty bad. Both cut like 90% of their schedule in May and June only to bring them back really fast in July. From what I can gather on available sources, their optimistic scheduling for July is not working out. The sudden deterioration in sunbelt state is crushing their ability to fill the aircraft. Legacies are going to see massive reductions in their flight attendants numbers. Alaska is likely to see some involuntary furlough too. I think southwest and allegiant probably are in best shape here.
 
tphuang
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Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sun Jul 05, 2020 2:43 pm

OAG from this week
Looks like DL has cut JFK-KIN, BOS-NAS/AUA (with BDA cut until April). Also, some other early reductions for them with JFK-SJU down to 3x again and STI/SDQ down to 1x in September. I also see them down 1x daily on ATL-GUA (should help JetBlue on JFK-GUA)

When this started, I though JFK-KIN was toast all along, but was hoping JetBlue could force them out on STI/SDQ also. That doesn't look to be happening as of now. I see that JetBlue has added more capacity to STI/SDQ later this month. STI is up to 7x daily and SDQ is up to 6x. Not a surprise if you are looking at how far sold out they are on these flights.

One of the byproduct of declined corporate travel is that DL probably can't sustain as many of these heavy VFR routes. As VFR demand comes back rapidly this and next year to Latin America, aggressive scheduling by JetBlue may force DL out of more of these markets. Having monopoly on something like JFK-STI would be huge.
 
tphuang
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Tue Jul 07, 2020 5:29 pm

https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/sou ... irus-loans
Alright, looks like JetBlue did get loans after all. Makes a lot of sense to build up a war chest to get through a worst case scenario or take advantage of legacy downsizing in Northeast. Aside from no dividend and buyback, I don't know of any other negative stipulations. I'm assuming the interest rate here is lower than what they could find in private markets.
 
Flflyer83
Posts: 54
Joined: Tue Apr 14, 2020 4:40 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Tue Jul 07, 2020 6:13 pm

Don’t forget, B6 has already put in to motion laying off quite a few people with the outsourcing of stations. It seems as though tphuang just doesn’t want to confront that when going on and on about how well JetBlue is playing this situation that all carriers are in. Like it or not, those B6 employees are employees that are being either furloughed or laid off. In the end, those with seniority may be allowed to move to different stations and bump people out which would cause all kinds of headaches with morale when peoples friends start getting shown the door.
 
tphuang
Posts: 5076
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Tue Jul 07, 2020 6:20 pm

Flflyer83 wrote:
Don’t forget, B6 has already put in to motion laying off quite a few people with the outsourcing of stations. It seems as though tphuang just doesn’t want to confront that when going on and on about how well JetBlue is playing this situation that all carriers are in. Like it or not, those B6 employees are employees that are being either furloughed or laid off. In the end, those with seniority may be allowed to move to different stations and bump people out which would cause all kinds of headaches with morale when peoples friends start getting shown the door.


I did not say anywhere that there won't be furloughs. If there are enough people taking voluntary time off or separation, then they won't have to. Otherwise, there will be involuntary layoffs or furloughs coming. Feel free to quote the part where I said otherwise.
 
trueblew
Posts: 123
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Wed Jul 08, 2020 12:47 pm

tphuang wrote:
https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/southwest-delta-united-alaska-jetblue-airlines-coronavirus-loans
Alright, looks like JetBlue did get loans after all. Makes a lot of sense to build up a war chest to get through a worst case scenario or take advantage of legacy downsizing in Northeast. Aside from no dividend and buyback, I don't know of any other negative stipulations. I'm assuming the interest rate here is lower than what they could find in private markets.


I can't speak to the situation with the other airlines mentioned in that article, but JB came to an agreement with the government on terms for CARES loans of over $1b however they have not committed to taking the loan and have until the end of September to make a decision.
 
vtchaz78
Posts: 16
Joined: Sun Feb 04, 2018 6:01 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Thu Jul 09, 2020 6:28 pm

It's all moving to LAX. JetBlue gives LGB the boot.

http://blueir.investproductions.com/inv ... -180823514
 
User avatar
ChrisNH38
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Fri Jul 10, 2020 1:08 am

LGB is groveling for more service in the wake of this, but officials there are so antagonist and adversarial to airlines that any pleas will fall on (literally) deaf ears.
https://my.flightradar24.com/ChrisNH
 
tphuang
Posts: 5076
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Fri Jul 10, 2020 1:27 pm

It's such a weird time when JetBlue is more aggressively going after legacy reductions than other LCCs. Very unusual for them. They have already done almost everything that we discussed here 2 months ago. The only thing left seems to be getting more LGA slots, but that will take a while. It seems like they are both more optimist and willing to be risky than other carriers.

Here is an interesting update on what they think of the current demand level.
https://skift.com/2020/07/09/hopes-dash ... nK6BuyAUI1
In an interview Thursday, Scott Laurence, JetBlue Airways’ head of revenue and planning, also said he has seen a dip in demand. But he said he remains optimistic, saying JetBlue can at least cover the costs with it current schedule — something it could not always do a couple of months ago.

“We have certainly have seen things slow, particularly in the quarantine-impacted East Coast markets,” he said. “But it’s not like we saw earlier in this crisis."


Interesting bit here. Looks like even though things have taken a hit recently, JetBlue is still pretty optimistic. Looks like at least they are still getting positive booking #s, which weren't the case for much of April and May. Based on that, it seems like most of the new flights are going forward still.

What's left for JetBlue management to do now? Maybe getting more gates at SFO? I see everyone cutting back there. Maybe JetBlue can grow into a 30 to 40 flight operation there. That will give them some west coast presence.
 
BlueBaller
Posts: 69
Joined: Sun Sep 01, 2019 8:07 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Fri Jul 10, 2020 3:46 pm

tphuang wrote:
Here is an interesting update on what they think of the current demand level.
https://skift.com/2020/07/09/hopes-dash ... nK6BuyAUI1
In an interview Thursday, Scott Laurence, JetBlue Airways’ head of revenue and planning, also said he has seen a dip in demand. But he said he remains optimistic, saying JetBlue can at least cover the costs with it current schedule — something it could not always do a couple of months ago.

“We have certainly have seen things slow, particularly in the quarantine-impacted East Coast markets,” he said. “But it’s not like we saw earlier in this crisis."


Interesting bit here. Looks like even though things have taken a hit recently, JetBlue is still pretty optimistic. Looks like at least they are still getting positive booking #s, which weren't the case for much of April and May. Based on that, it seems like most of the new flights are going forward still.

What's left for JetBlue management to do now? Maybe getting more gates at SFO? I see everyone cutting back there. Maybe JetBlue can grow into a 30 to 40 flight operation there. That will give them some west coast presence.


I'm good buddies with an ALPA Local union rep, we spoke the other day and as it stands now, JetBlue is turning a $1,000/day profit systemwide. Hopefully things continue along this current trajectory.
 
strfyr51
Posts: 4905
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sat Jul 11, 2020 1:33 am

Happy to see B6 moving to LAX to take their place with the rest of the front line carriers both National and International.
 
JoseSalazar
Posts: 190
Joined: Mon Oct 14, 2019 3:18 am

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sat Jul 11, 2020 1:37 am

BlueBaller wrote:
tphuang wrote:
Here is an interesting update on what they think of the current demand level.
https://skift.com/2020/07/09/hopes-dash ... nK6BuyAUI1
In an interview Thursday, Scott Laurence, JetBlue Airways’ head of revenue and planning, also said he has seen a dip in demand. But he said he remains optimistic, saying JetBlue can at least cover the costs with it current schedule — something it could not always do a couple of months ago.

“We have certainly have seen things slow, particularly in the quarantine-impacted East Coast markets,” he said. “But it’s not like we saw earlier in this crisis."


Interesting bit here. Looks like even though things have taken a hit recently, JetBlue is still pretty optimistic. Looks like at least they are still getting positive booking #s, which weren't the case for much of April and May. Based on that, it seems like most of the new flights are going forward still.

What's left for JetBlue management to do now? Maybe getting more gates at SFO? I see everyone cutting back there. Maybe JetBlue can grow into a 30 to 40 flight operation there. That will give them some west coast presence.


I'm good buddies with an ALPA Local union rep, we spoke the other day and as it stands now, JetBlue is turning a $1,000/day profit systemwide. Hopefully things continue along this current trajectory.

That is definitely not what Steve P said today in the internal call.
 
BlueBaller
Posts: 69
Joined: Sun Sep 01, 2019 8:07 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sat Jul 11, 2020 6:13 am

JoseSalazar wrote:
BlueBaller wrote:
tphuang wrote:
Here is an interesting update on what they think of the current demand level.
https://skift.com/2020/07/09/hopes-dash ... nK6BuyAUI1


Interesting bit here. Looks like even though things have taken a hit recently, JetBlue is still pretty optimistic. Looks like at least they are still getting positive booking #s, which weren't the case for much of April and May. Based on that, it seems like most of the new flights are going forward still.

What's left for JetBlue management to do now? Maybe getting more gates at SFO? I see everyone cutting back there. Maybe JetBlue can grow into a 30 to 40 flight operation there. That will give them some west coast presence.


I'm good buddies with an ALPA Local union rep, we spoke the other day and as it stands now, JetBlue is turning a $1,000/day profit systemwide. Hopefully things continue along this current trajectory.

That is definitely not what Steve P said today in the internal call.


:checkmark:
 
tphuang
Posts: 5076
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sat Jul 11, 2020 5:04 pm

We know the incremental cost of operating more flights isn't that high in this low fuel cost environment. So maybe they will keep a more aggressive schedule out there to capture. They have said that with net zero booking, they were burning close to $10 million per day and a regular day from last year generates about $22 million per day in booking. So if they were doing better in end of June before the quarantine orders came out and got about 25% of their regular bookings, they were probably generating $5.5 million in booking revenue per day. If we add the additional flying in end of June compared to May, they probably got cash burn down to $5 to 6 million a day near end of June. Since then, if net booking is down to 15 to 20% of their regular bookings, they are probably generating $4 million in booking revenue a day. If we include the additional cost of more flying in July, they are probably burning $7 to 8 million a day at this moment if I had to guess. They would probably need to generate around $15 million a day in net booking/ancillary revenue before they can be cash neutral.


Taking a look at what I think their west coast strategy can look like a few years. Looking strictly at Cali airport for now.

First the secondary airports:
BUR - 2x A321N to JFK does really well and 1x A320 to BOS does poorly. I would assume those stay as is and they will add a flight to EWR since there is a lot of demand to NY/NJ area they can capture.
ONT - 1x A320 to JFK did pretty well last summer and I think they will go permanently to 2x JFK and possibly 1x EWR going forward.
SNA - I assume they will get 3 slots here at some point and run 1 A220 flight each to JFK/BOS/EWR.
SJC - 1x to JFK will stick around as is. 1 to 2x to BOS depending on time of year. 1x EWR if AS leaves the market.
SAN - 3x to JFK, 4 to 5x BOS, 2x to EWR, 1x FLL and 1x MCO. Not really sure the mint distribution here.

LAX - This is what I think a 70 flight schedule could look like.
17x to JFK/EWR, 6x BOS, 6x FLL, 3x IAD, 2x HNL on mint (33 flights in total)
A320 or A321 flight to BUF/MCO/PIT/CLE/BDL
A220 flight to HPN/PBI/JAX/CHS
A320 or A321s into GUA/SAL/SJO/LIR/PVR/SJD
7x A220 to SFO, 4x A321 to LAS, 3x A220 to SEA, 3x A220 to SMF, 3x A220 to PHX, 2x A320 to SLC, 1x A321 RNO + some seasonal 1x to BZN/HDN or similar type of airports.
Using what I have here, they probably need an A220 base in LAX. The number of flights to SFO/SEA/PHX/DEN is based on the lowest number I see on these routes for a big 4 carrier. For example, WN has 7x to SFO and AA has 8x. AA is 4x to SEA and UA is 2x. UA is 3x to SMF and AA is 4x. UA is 4x to PHX. A220 is basically the most economic aircraft they can run on these business markets that require some level of frequency. A321 to LAS/RNO is to lower their cost on trunk leisure routes.

This would allow them to somewhat adequately serve 6 out of top 10 markets out of LA and 12 out of top 17. That's not terrible. It would also give more connection options for their East coast customers to come to various destinations in west coast.

SFO - I think they will need to run a schedule like this
11x to JFK/EWR, 7x BOS, 4x FLL, 1x MCO for transcon stuff
7x A220 to LAX, 2x A321 to LAS
Currently, they have at most 3 gates at SFO. They should look to have at least 4 gates at SFO.
 
phllax
Posts: 588
Joined: Wed Jan 11, 2006 6:53 am

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sat Jul 11, 2020 5:55 pm

tphuang wrote:
Taking a look at what I think their west coast strategy can look like a few years. Looking strictly at Cali airport for now.

First the secondary airports:
BUR - 2x A321N to JFK does really well and 1x A320 to BOS does poorly. I would assume those stay as is and they will add a flight to EWR since there is a lot of demand to NY/NJ area they can capture.
ONT - 1x A320 to JFK did pretty well last summer and I think they will go permanently to 2x JFK and possibly 1x EWR going forward.

LAX - This is what I think a 70 flight schedule could look like.
17x to JFK/EWR, 6x BOS, 6x FLL, 3x IAD, 2x HNL on mint (33 flights in total)
A320 or A321 flight to BUF/MCO/PIT/CLE/BDL
A220 flight to HPN/PBI/JAX/CHS
A320 or A321s into GUA/SAL/SJO/LIR/PVR/SJD
7x A220 to SFO, 4x A321 to LAS, 3x A220 to SEA, 3x A220 to SMF, 3x A220 to PHX, 2x A320 to SLC, 1x A321 RNO + some seasonal 1x to BZN/HDN or similar type of airports.



BUR-BOS was doing better with the Eastbound morning departure instead of the awful 4:30 am arrival when it was a red-eye. I would also hope they add EWR, even on a 320.

As for LAX, I just don't see 6x FLL, maybe 4-5, especially if they have 2 early morning departures, but I just don't see demand or room on either side for 6. I do see PBI, and also PHL, especially f this experiment this fall works out. JAX and CHS are long shots, with DL trying JAX several times over the years.
 
EADSYABSOB73857
Posts: 80
Joined: Mon Apr 08, 2019 11:35 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sat Jul 11, 2020 7:35 pm

tphuang wrote:
We know the incremental cost of operating more flights isn't that high in this low fuel cost environment. So maybe they will keep a more aggressive schedule out there to capture. They have said that with net zero booking, they were burning close to $10 million per day and a regular day from last year generates about $22 million per day in booking. So if they were doing better in end of June before the quarantine orders came out and got about 25% of their regular bookings, they were probably generating $5.5 million in booking revenue per day. If we add the additional flying in end of June compared to May, they probably got cash burn down to $5 to 6 million a day near end of June. Since then, if net booking is down to 15 to 20% of their regular bookings, they are probably generating $4 million in booking revenue a day. If we include the additional cost of more flying in July, they are probably burning $7 to 8 million a day at this moment if I had to guess. They would probably need to generate around $15 million a day in net booking/ancillary revenue before they can be cash neutral.


Taking a look at what I think their west coast strategy can look like a few years. Looking strictly at Cali airport for now.

First the secondary airports:
BUR - 2x A321N to JFK does really well and 1x A320 to BOS does poorly. I would assume those stay as is and they will add a flight to EWR since there is a lot of demand to NY/NJ area they can capture.
ONT - 1x A320 to JFK did pretty well last summer and I think they will go permanently to 2x JFK and possibly 1x EWR going forward.
SNA - I assume they will get 3 slots here at some point and run 1 A220 flight each to JFK/BOS/EWR.
SJC - 1x to JFK will stick around as is. 1 to 2x to BOS depending on time of year. 1x EWR if AS leaves the market.
SAN - 3x to JFK, 4 to 5x BOS, 2x to EWR, 1x FLL and 1x MCO. Not really sure the mint distribution here.

LAX - This is what I think a 70 flight schedule could look like.
17x to JFK/EWR, 6x BOS, 6x FLL, 3x IAD, 2x HNL on mint (33 flights in total)
A320 or A321 flight to BUF/MCO/PIT/CLE/BDL
A220 flight to HPN/PBI/JAX/CHS
A320 or A321s into GUA/SAL/SJO/LIR/PVR/SJD
7x A220 to SFO, 4x A321 to LAS, 3x A220 to SEA, 3x A220 to SMF, 3x A220 to PHX, 2x A320 to SLC, 1x A321 RNO + some seasonal 1x to BZN/HDN or similar type of airports.
Using what I have here, they probably need an A220 base in LAX. The number of flights to SFO/SEA/PHX/DEN is based on the lowest number I see on these routes for a big 4 carrier. For example, WN has 7x to SFO and AA has 8x. AA is 4x to SEA and UA is 2x. UA is 3x to SMF and AA is 4x. UA is 4x to PHX. A220 is basically the most economic aircraft they can run on these business markets that require some level of frequency. A321 to LAS/RNO is to lower their cost on trunk leisure routes.

This would allow them to somewhat adequately serve 6 out of top 10 markets out of LA and 12 out of top 17. That's not terrible. It would also give more connection options for their East coast customers to come to various destinations in west coast.

SFO - I think they will need to run a schedule like this
11x to JFK/EWR, 7x BOS, 4x FLL, 1x MCO for transcon stuff
7x A220 to LAX, 2x A321 to LAS
Currently, they have at most 3 gates at SFO. They should look to have at least 4 gates at SFO.


Congrats to B6 for seizing on a good opportunity at the right time. My only questions are- where are they going to get the planes for all of this growth you are predicting?? B6 has previously stated growth goals of flights to Europe, BOS 200, FLL 140, MCO 100. I realize that lack of demand right now at BOS, NYC and FLL has decreased flights, but what happens when that demand returns and they need to add flights back to remain competitive, how are they going to add flights back, grow their main focus cities, fly to Europe and grow EWR and LAX the way you're predicting. Again, where are all these planes coming from? A220 is pretty much a 1 for 1 swap out with the E190 (10 extra frames), and BOS is stated as the main A220 base. I'm surprised you're listing all these other A220 flights ex BOS.
 
EADSYABSOB73857
Posts: 80
Joined: Mon Apr 08, 2019 11:35 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sat Jul 11, 2020 7:38 pm

phllax wrote:
tphuang wrote:
Taking a look at what I think their west coast strategy can look like a few years. Looking strictly at Cali airport for now.

First the secondary airports:
BUR - 2x A321N to JFK does really well and 1x A320 to BOS does poorly. I would assume those stay as is and they will add a flight to EWR since there is a lot of demand to NY/NJ area they can capture.
ONT - 1x A320 to JFK did pretty well last summer and I think they will go permanently to 2x JFK and possibly 1x EWR going forward.

LAX - This is what I think a 70 flight schedule could look like.
17x to JFK/EWR, 6x BOS, 6x FLL, 3x IAD, 2x HNL on mint (33 flights in total)
A320 or A321 flight to BUF/MCO/PIT/CLE/BDL
A220 flight to HPN/PBI/JAX/CHS
A320 or A321s into GUA/SAL/SJO/LIR/PVR/SJD
7x A220 to SFO, 4x A321 to LAS, 3x A220 to SEA, 3x A220 to SMF, 3x A220 to PHX, 2x A320 to SLC, 1x A321 RNO + some seasonal 1x to BZN/HDN or similar type of airports.



BUR-BOS was doing better with the Eastbound morning departure instead of the awful 4:30 am arrival when it was a red-eye. I would also hope they add EWR, even on a 320.

As for LAX, I just don't see 6x FLL, maybe 4-5, especially if they have 2 early morning departures, but I just don't see demand or room on either side for 6. I do see PBI, and also PHL, especially f this experiment this fall works out. JAX and CHS are long shots, with DL trying JAX several times over the years.


Yes this is correct. BOS-BUR did noticeably improve after the flight time adjustment was made- loads were in mid to high 80s. It´s not as bad as tphuang says it was.
 
EADSYABSOB73857
Posts: 80
Joined: Mon Apr 08, 2019 11:35 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sat Jul 11, 2020 7:54 pm

tphuang wrote:
Taking a look at what I think their west coast strategy can look like a few years. Looking strictly at Cali airport for now.

First the secondary airports:
BUR - 2x A321N to JFK does really well and 1x A320 to BOS does poorly. I would assume those stay as is and they will add a flight to EWR since there is a lot of demand to NY/NJ area they can capture.
ONT - 1x A320 to JFK did pretty well last summer and I think they will go permanently to 2x JFK and possibly 1x EWR going forward.
SNA - I assume they will get 3 slots here at some point and run 1 A220 flight each to JFK/BOS/EWR.
SJC - 1x to JFK will stick around as is. 1 to 2x to BOS depending on time of year. 1x EWR if AS leaves the market.
SAN - 3x to JFK, 4 to 5x BOS, 2x to EWR, 1x FLL and 1x MCO. Not really sure the mint distribution here.

LAX - This is what I think a 70 flight schedule could look like.
17x to JFK/EWR, 6x BOS, 6x FLL, 3x IAD, 2x HNL on mint (33 flights in total)
A320 or A321 flight to BUF/MCO/PIT/CLE/BDL
A220 flight to HPN/PBI/JAX/CHS
A320 or A321s into GUA/SAL/SJO/LIR/PVR/SJD
7x A220 to SFO, 4x A321 to LAS, 3x A220 to SEA, 3x A220 to SMF, 3x A220 to PHX, 2x A320 to SLC, 1x A321 RNO + some seasonal 1x to BZN/HDN or similar type of airports.
Using what I have here, they probably need an A220 base in LAX. The number of flights to SFO/SEA/PHX/DEN is based on the lowest number I see on these routes for a big 4 carrier. For example, WN has 7x to SFO and AA has 8x. AA is 4x to SEA and UA is 2x. UA is 3x to SMF and AA is 4x. UA is 4x to PHX. A220 is basically the most economic aircraft they can run on these business markets that require some level of frequency. A321 to LAS/RNO is to lower their cost on trunk leisure routes.

This would allow them to somewhat adequately serve 6 out of top 10 markets out of LA and 12 out of top 17. That's not terrible. It would also give more connection options for their East coast customers to come to various destinations in west coast.

SFO - I think they will need to run a schedule like this
11x to JFK/EWR, 7x BOS, 4x FLL, 1x MCO for transcon stuff
7x A220 to LAX, 2x A321 to LAS
Currently, they have at most 3 gates at SFO. They should look to have at least 4 gates at SFO.


I agree that B6 will get new flights in on the west coast, but some of this is comical. I think you are way too bullish out of the gate on some of these EWR adds... way too bullish. We are going to have to see how some of these flights do after they start- the proof will be in the pudding. If things go really well, then I would agree more flights will follow. But at this point, I just don't see EWR being this new unicorn base you are painting it out to be. You are assuming all of this as if UA will have nothing to say about it. You can argue as much as you want that the legacies are not in an ideal situation at this exact moment to retaliate, but if you think UA is just going to stand by while B6 adds all of these new flights in UA's NYC fortress hub, you are dreaming. Also, B6 LAX-IAD....? Not sure where you're thought process is coming from. No way B6 is adding an unserved city from LAX (huge start-up costs), especially after B6 pulled flights from BOS and FLL to IAD, two significantly larger and more important focus cities than LAX- no way LAX is going to have a flight there when there aren't flights to BOS or FLL. Plus, it's a UA premium TCON and hub to hub route. No way.
 
Wingtips56
Posts: 1274
Joined: Thu Dec 16, 2010 1:26 am

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sat Jul 11, 2020 11:13 pm

I'm sure it's buried somewhere in the preceding 19 pages, but I'll ask anyway: when is B6 likely to introduce the A220? And when will they have enough to form a base of them anywhere? Why would they open a base (for A220) at LAX before NYC? I'm just wondering about all of these predictions for the Base at LAX and all that West Coast A220 flying, when it may still be a long way off.
Worked for WestAir, Apollo Airways, Desert Pacific, Western, AirCal and American Airlines (Retired). Flight Memory: 181 airports, 92 airlines, 78 a/c types, 403 routes, 58 countries (by air), 6 continents. 1,119,414 passenger miles.

Home airport : CEC
 
tphuang
Posts: 5076
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sat Jul 11, 2020 11:16 pm

EADSYABSOB73857 wrote:
Congrats to B6 for seizing on a good opportunity at the right time. My only questions are- where are they going to get the planes for all of this growth you are predicting?? B6 has previously stated growth goals of flights to Europe, BOS 200, FLL 140, MCO 100. I realize that lack of demand right now at BOS, NYC and FLL has decreased flights, but what happens when that demand returns and they need to add flights back to remain competitive, how are they going to add flights back, grow their main focus cities, fly to Europe and grow EWR and LAX the way you're predicting. Again, where are all these planes coming from? A220 is pretty much a 1 for 1 swap out with the E190 (10 extra frames), and BOS is stated as the main A220 base. I'm surprised you're listing all these other A220 flights ex BOS.


Most of the LAX growth will not start until 2023. That's basically when they will be getting a lot of A220s. The initial A220 base will be in BOS. By 2023, they will already have 16 in service, so other focus cities should start getting them. JetBlue internally has been saying they intend to use A220s out of LAX. I assume they will set up an A220 base out there.

I assume MCO growth won't happen. FLL probably won't get back to pre-COVID size for a while. 140 might be 2025 kind of thing. BOS probably won't get to 200 until some times after business demand is back.

They are not doing any pilot furloughs, so looks like they plan to run a 90 to 100% by next summer. That means a lot of capacity will be in JFK + EWR.

EADSYABSOB73857 wrote:
I agree that B6 will get new flights in on the west coast, but some of this is comical. I think you are way too bullish out of the gate on some of these EWR adds... way too bullish. We are going to have to see how some of these flights do after they start- the proof will be in the pudding. If things go really well, then I would agree more flights will follow. But at this point, I just don't see EWR being this new unicorn base you are painting it out to be. You are assuming all of this as if UA will have nothing to say about it. You can argue as much as you want that the legacies are not in an ideal situation at this exact moment to retaliate, but if you think UA is just going to stand by while B6 adds all of these new flights in UA's NYC fortress hub, you are dreaming. Also, B6 LAX-IAD....? Not sure where you're thought process is coming from. No way B6 is adding an unserved city from LAX (huge start-up costs), especially after B6 pulled flights from BOS and FLL to IAD, two significantly larger and more important focus cities than LAX- no way LAX is going to have a flight there when there aren't flights to BOS or FLL. Plus, it's a UA premium TCON and hub to hub route. No way.

A significant portion of the LAX adds I listed are based on JetBlue's internal emails and conversations with its staff. Others are just some of the largest markets out of LAX. Aside from existing mint transcon, it does seem like they will add another mint destination from LAX. PHL and IAD look to be the most obvious choices. Of those 2, I think it makes more sense to serve IAD than PHL. If they do add back IAD, then I assume BOS and FLL will get added too.

All the recent moves indicate B6 is in the middle of a pretty significant network realignment. Adding back IAD would be a beneficial move for their network.
 
strfyr51
Posts: 4905
Joined: Tue Apr 10, 2012 5:04 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sat Jul 11, 2020 11:40 pm

EADSYABSOB73857 wrote:
tphuang wrote:
Taking a look at what I think their west coast strategy can look like a few years. Looking strictly at Cali airport for now.

First the secondary airports:
BUR - 2x A321N to JFK does really well and 1x A320 to BOS does poorly. I would assume those stay as is and they will add a flight to EWR since there is a lot of demand to NY/NJ area they can capture.
ONT - 1x A320 to JFK did pretty well last summer and I think they will go permanently to 2x JFK and possibly 1x EWR going forward.
SNA - I assume they will get 3 slots here at some point and run 1 A220 flight each to JFK/BOS/EWR.
SJC - 1x to JFK will stick around as is. 1 to 2x to BOS depending on time of year. 1x EWR if AS leaves the market.
SAN - 3x to JFK, 4 to 5x BOS, 2x to EWR, 1x FLL and 1x MCO. Not really sure the mint distribution here.

LAX - This is what I think a 70 flight schedule could look like.
17x to JFK/EWR, 6x BOS, 6x FLL, 3x IAD, 2x HNL on mint (33 flights in total)
A320 or A321 flight to BUF/MCO/PIT/CLE/BDL
A220 flight to HPN/PBI/JAX/CHS
A320 or A321s into GUA/SAL/SJO/LIR/PVR/SJD
7x A220 to SFO, 4x A321 to LAS, 3x A220 to SEA, 3x A220 to SMF, 3x A220 to PHX, 2x A320 to SLC, 1x A321 RNO + some seasonal 1x to BZN/HDN or similar type of airports.
Using what I have here, they probably need an A220 base in LAX. The number of flights to SFO/SEA/PHX/DEN is based on the lowest number I see on these routes for a big 4 carrier. For example, WN has 7x to SFO and AA has 8x. AA is 4x to SEA and UA is 2x. UA is 3x to SMF and AA is 4x. UA is 4x to PHX. A220 is basically the most economic aircraft they can run on these business markets that require some level of frequency. A321 to LAS/RNO is to lower their cost on trunk leisure routes.

This would allow them to somewhat adequately serve 6 out of top 10 markets out of LA and 12 out of top 17. That's not terrible. It would also give more connection options for their East coast customers to come to various destinations in west coast.

SFO - I think they will need to run a schedule like this
11x to JFK/EWR, 7x BOS, 4x FLL, 1x MCO for transcon stuff
7x A220 to LAX, 2x A321 to LAS
Currently, they have at most 3 gates at SFO. They should look to have at least 4 gates at SFO.


I agree that B6 will get new flights in on the west coast, but some of this is comical. I think you are way too bullish out of the gate on some of these EWR adds... way too bullish. We are going to have to see how some of these flights do after they start- the proof will be in the pudding. If things go really well, then I would agree more flights will follow. But at this point, I just don't see EWR being this new unicorn base you are painting it out to be. You are assuming all of this as if UA will have nothing to say about it. You can argue as much as you want that the legacies are not in an ideal situation at this exact moment to retaliate, but if you think UA is just going to stand by while B6 adds all of these new flights in UA's NYC fortress hub, you are dreaming. Also, B6 LAX-IAD....? Not sure where you're thought process is coming from. No way B6 is adding an unserved city from LAX (huge start-up costs), especially after B6 pulled flights from BOS and FLL to IAD, two significantly larger and more important focus cities than LAX- no way LAX is going to have a flight there when there aren't flights to BOS or FLL. Plus, it's a UA premium TCON and hub to hub route. No way.

well? you're right. United is adding 25,000 flights starting in August (just read it on the newsline) So B6 had better Do what they're going to do in a hurry!! because they're going to have to Defend whatever moves they make at SFO,LAX, and EWR so? This is going to get REAL in one hell of a hurry! And Since they're on everybody else's turf? They very well may have to defend their OWN! But one good thing? They can no longer claim anybody is doing predatory pricing or schedules so it's just a matter of "Step up and take your best shot" and? We shall see wht we shall SEE!
 
Nicknuzzii
Posts: 1053
Joined: Sat Sep 15, 2018 5:57 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sun Jul 12, 2020 1:19 am

What is the likely hood of TATL flights from EWR?
 
EADSYABSOB73857
Posts: 80
Joined: Mon Apr 08, 2019 11:35 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sun Jul 12, 2020 1:41 am

Nicknuzzii wrote:
What is the likely hood of TATL flights from EWR?


None. Now people are dreaming. If B6 ventures outside of their main bases in adding TATL flights, that will be their demise. They do not have enough resources to grow their core focus cities (BOS, JFK, FLL), grow EWR and LAX, have to fight for their positions with legacies in all of these markets (especially EWR and LAX), add Europe flights from BOS and JFK, and add TATL flights out of non-focus cities... If they do that everyone will step up and they will have too many fires to put out. B6 is not going to go from being the most conservative airline to the most aggressive just like that.
 
EADSYABSOB73857
Posts: 80
Joined: Mon Apr 08, 2019 11:35 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sun Jul 12, 2020 2:01 am

tphuang wrote:
EADSYABSOB73857 wrote:
Congrats to B6 for seizing on a good opportunity at the right time. My only questions are- where are they going to get the planes for all of this growth you are predicting?? B6 has previously stated growth goals of flights to Europe, BOS 200, FLL 140, MCO 100. I realize that lack of demand right now at BOS, NYC and FLL has decreased flights, but what happens when that demand returns and they need to add flights back to remain competitive, how are they going to add flights back, grow their main focus cities, fly to Europe and grow EWR and LAX the way you're predicting. Again, where are all these planes coming from? A220 is pretty much a 1 for 1 swap out with the E190 (10 extra frames), and BOS is stated as the main A220 base. I'm surprised you're listing all these other A220 flights ex BOS.


Most of the LAX growth will not start until 2023. That's basically when they will be getting a lot of A220s. The initial A220 base will be in BOS. By 2023, they will already have 16 in service, so other focus cities should start getting them. JetBlue internally has been saying they intend to use A220s out of LAX. I assume they will set up an A220 base out there.

I assume MCO growth won't happen. FLL probably won't get back to pre-COVID size for a while. 140 might be 2025 kind of thing. BOS probably won't get to 200 until some times after business demand is back.

They are not doing any pilot furloughs, so looks like they plan to run a 90 to 100% by next summer. That means a lot of capacity will be in JFK + EWR.

EADSYABSOB73857 wrote:
I agree that B6 will get new flights in on the west coast, but some of this is comical. I think you are way too bullish out of the gate on some of these EWR adds... way too bullish. We are going to have to see how some of these flights do after they start- the proof will be in the pudding. If things go really well, then I would agree more flights will follow. But at this point, I just don't see EWR being this new unicorn base you are painting it out to be. You are assuming all of this as if UA will have nothing to say about it. You can argue as much as you want that the legacies are not in an ideal situation at this exact moment to retaliate, but if you think UA is just going to stand by while B6 adds all of these new flights in UA's NYC fortress hub, you are dreaming. Also, B6 LAX-IAD....? Not sure where you're thought process is coming from. No way B6 is adding an unserved city from LAX (huge start-up costs), especially after B6 pulled flights from BOS and FLL to IAD, two significantly larger and more important focus cities than LAX- no way LAX is going to have a flight there when there aren't flights to BOS or FLL. Plus, it's a UA premium TCON and hub to hub route. No way.

A significant portion of the LAX adds I listed are based on JetBlue's internal emails and conversations with its staff. Others are just some of the largest markets out of LAX. Aside from existing mint transcon, it does seem like they will add another mint destination from LAX. PHL and IAD look to be the most obvious choices. Of those 2, I think it makes more sense to serve IAD than PHL. If they do add back IAD, then I assume BOS and FLL will get added too.

All the recent moves indicate B6 is in the middle of a pretty significant network realignment. Adding back IAD would be a beneficial move for their network.


Ok... well you didn't really answer the question. If you figure the A220s are a 1 for 1 swap out for the E190s that will leave 10 left over. B6 already stated they will add/grow smaller destinations out of BOS- their largest business market, with those excess planes. 10 extra planes doesn't leave them much room for growth. Unless they switch a ton of E190 flights to A320s (a lot can´t handle that up-gauge), I don't see how they will have enough planes for growth (unless they order more planes). Let's figure this..... Grow BOS, grow JFK, grow FLL, grow EWR, grow LAX, add niche flights to SFO, CLE, PHL (as you have stated or suggest)... as it stands right now- they have 70 A220s on order and after the swap out with the E190s that leaves 10+. They have roughly 50 more A321neos coming in for delivery, 13 A321neoLRs (for Europe, maybe HI-if they chose to add.. will result in a blood bath/all out war), 13 A321neoXLRs- slated for Europe. So, LRs and XLRs are pretty much all slated for Europe, that leaves 10 extra A220s and about 40-45 A321neos (some are earmarked for already newly announced flights). I rephrase my initial question- where are these planes coming from in order to grow BOS, JFK, FLL, EWR, and LAX? I don't feel those are enough planes at all to fund that growth. My feeling is that LAX- 70 flights could be much like MCO- They want to get there, but depending on how things go, it might not happen. EWR- most of this is a focus right now as a way to redistribute assets while BOS, JFK and FLL are down. They will keep some EWR destinations no doubt, but as they have to re-add flights to BOS, JFK and FLL they are going to eventually run out of resources, especially if DL and UA start re-adding flights back at a fast clip in those cities as demand resurges. They will not have enough resources to distribute to all of these places, especially once the competition starts re-adding, which they will.
 
EADSYABSOB73857
Posts: 80
Joined: Mon Apr 08, 2019 11:35 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sun Jul 12, 2020 2:12 am

tphuang wrote:
Most of the LAX growth will not start until 2023. That's basically when they will be getting a lot of A220s. The initial A220 base will be in BOS. By 2023, they will already have 16 in service, so other focus cities should start getting them. JetBlue internally has been saying they intend to use A220s out of LAX. I assume they will set up an A220 base out there.

I assume MCO growth won't happen. FLL probably won't get back to pre-COVID size for a while. 140 might be 2025 kind of thing. BOS probably won't get to 200 until some times after business demand is back.

They are not doing any pilot furloughs, so looks like they plan to run a 90 to 100% by next summer. That means a lot of capacity will be in JFK + EWR.

A significant portion of the LAX adds I listed are based on JetBlue's internal emails and conversations with its staff. Others are just some of the largest markets out of LAX. Aside from existing mint transcon, it does seem like they will add another mint destination from LAX. PHL and IAD look to be the most obvious choices. Of those 2, I think it makes more sense to serve IAD than PHL. If they do add back IAD, then I assume BOS and FLL will get added too.

All the recent moves indicate B6 is in the middle of a pretty significant network realignment. Adding back IAD would be a beneficial move for their network.


After all of the growth they've already committed to in their largest focus cities, Europe flying, EWR and LAX adds, you think they are going to re-enter a market they exited a year and a half earlier and run a flight from LAX which is premium TCON and hub to hub for UA. I think you are a bit ahead of yourself, especially given that B6 has been the most conservative airline in their endeavors. They are really risking a war with UA while engaging in one with DL at BOS and most likely DL at JFK after the JFK-DTW and JFK-MSP adds. I just don't see this happening, i think it's a pipe-dream.
 
EADSYABSOB73857
Posts: 80
Joined: Mon Apr 08, 2019 11:35 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sun Jul 12, 2020 2:28 am

tphuang wrote:

A significant portion of the LAX adds I listed are based on JetBlue's internal emails and conversations with its staff. Others are just some of the largest markets out of LAX. Aside from existing mint transcon, it does seem like they will add another mint destination from LAX. PHL and IAD look to be the most obvious choices. Of those 2, I think it makes more sense to serve IAD than PHL. If they do add back IAD, then I assume BOS and FLL will get added too.

All the recent moves indicate B6 is in the middle of a pretty significant network realignment. Adding back IAD would be a beneficial move for their network.


We know that quotes from people on this forum about conversations with airline staff is hearsay and have a tendency to not materialize and is not a legitimate source, so don't quote that.

And I would actually argue LAX-PHL is a better MINT option due to AA's weakness and lack of lie-flat options on that route compared to WAS-LAX.
 
tphuang
Posts: 5076
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sun Jul 12, 2020 3:05 am

EADSYABSOB73857 wrote:
Ok... well you didn't really answer the question. If you figure the A220s are a 1 for 1 swap out for the E190s that will leave 10 left over. B6 already stated they will add/grow smaller destinations out of BOS- their largest business market, with those excess planes. 10 extra planes doesn't leave them much room for growth. Unless they switch a ton of E190 flights to A320s (a lot can´t handle that up-gauge), I don't see how they will have enough planes for growth (unless they order more planes). Let's figure this..... Grow BOS, grow JFK, grow FLL, grow EWR, grow LAX, add niche flights to SFO, CLE, PHL (as you have stated or suggest)... as it stands right now- they have 70 A220s on order and after the swap out with the E190s that leaves 10+. They have roughly 50 more A321neos coming in for delivery, 13 A321neoLRs (for Europe, maybe HI-if they chose to add.. will result in a blood bath/all out war), 13 A321neoXLRs- slated for Europe. So, LRs and XLRs are pretty much all slated for Europe, that leaves 10 extra A220s and about 40-45 A321neos (some are earmarked for already newly announced flights). I rephrase my initial question- where are these planes coming from in order to grow BOS, JFK, FLL, EWR, and LAX? I don't feel those are enough planes at all to fund that growth. My feeling is that LAX- 70 flights could be much like MCO- They want to get there, but depending on how things go, it might not happen. EWR- most of this is a focus right now as a way to redistribute assets while BOS, JFK and FLL are down. They will keep some EWR destinations no doubt, but as they have to re-add flights to BOS, JFK and FLL they are going to eventually run out of resources, especially if DL and UA start re-adding flights back at a fast clip in those cities as demand resurges. They will not have enough resources to distribute to all of these places, especially once the competition starts re-adding, which they will.


If you take a look at their utilization on E90 and A320 series, the difference is dramatic (E90 is about 3/4 of A320 I think). 70 A220 replacing 60 E90s is quite a bit of growth. They have been upgauging A320 to A321 and also E90 to A320 in Boston.

They are not growing FLL and MCO anytime soon. We can assume that FLL/MCO will be below pre-COVID size for a while. BOS will be smaller until business demand comes back. LAX growth won't come until 2023 when A321 and A220 deliveries pick up again. And even then, 20 to 30 additional flights in 3 years is not that dramatic. JFK/EWR are going to be the main growth area for the next year and half while slots and gates are open at these airports. They are not going to lose gates at BOS/FLL if they take their time coming back.

Let's say by next summer, they are running 90 to 95% of their 2020 scheduled summer. So they will be running about 80 fewer flights than what was scheduled in summer 2020. If they are running 140x daily at BOS (40 less), 70x daily at FLL (30 less), 40x daily at MCO (25 less), 15 less elsewhere. They would be able to add about 30 flights to NY/NJ area. So they could run a schedule of 190 flights at JFK and 55 at EWR.

EADSYABSOB73857 wrote:
We know that quotes from people on this forum about conversations with airline staff is hearsay and have a tendency to not materialize and is not a legitimate source, so don't quote that.

And I would actually argue LAX-PHL is a better MINT option due to AA's weakness and lack of lie-flat options on that route compared to WAS-LAX.

There is certainly a good argument for PHL. It may very well happen.

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