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CobaltScar
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Tue Jun 30, 2020 8:25 pm

I'm hearing Puerto Rico is going to require covid tests for those arriving. That will kill a ton of demand to PR.
 
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jfklganyc
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Tue Jun 30, 2020 10:35 pm

STT757 wrote:
All these State vs. State quarantines are the number one reasons why the Federal Government needs to lead the pandemic response and not left up to local governments.



Bingo!

Furthermore, the more states they add to it, the more they weaken its enforcement and compliance.

You can’t force people to stay in your state.

Hawaii is the exception to the rule because they are an island thousands of miles from anywhere



Beyond that none of this is enforceable, and people are flying
 
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jfklganyc
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Tue Jun 30, 2020 10:39 pm

VS4ever wrote:
tphuang wrote:
So Cuomo and tri state have increased quarantine list to 16 states. He is making at least some threats of adding some teeth to enforcement which would be a problem for JetBlue, especially since demand to places like California have been recovering. With these announcements, I'm not too optimistic about demand other than to DR/PR.

I don't think it's out of realm of possibility that B6 has some level of partnership with AA/AS to help OW presence in northeast. After all, they did announce a reprotection partnership a couple of months ago, although not much seem to have happened with it. At this point, I think partnership with DL & UA are both not possible.


Not to be outdone. Baker in MA has gone for a quarantine list of 43 states (basically everyone not from New England,NY or NJ), that’s going to hurt.


It’s not going to hurt because it’s unenforceable.

The size and scope is just too great to monitor.

There may be random enforcement but beyond that most people will be just fine
 
IdlewildJFK
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Wed Jul 01, 2020 12:14 am

VS4ever wrote:
tphuang wrote:
So Cuomo and tri state have increased quarantine list to 16 states. He is making at least some threats of adding some teeth to enforcement which would be a problem for JetBlue, especially since demand to places like California have been recovering. With these announcements, I'm not too optimistic about demand other than to DR/PR.

I don't think it's out of realm of possibility that B6 has some level of partnership with AA/AS to help OW presence in northeast. After all, they did announce a reprotection partnership a couple of months ago, although not much seem to have happened with it. At this point, I think partnership with DL & UA are both not possible.


Not to be outdone. Baker in MA has gone for a quarantine list of 43 states (basically everyone not from New England,NY or NJ), that’s going to hurt.


The list had been all 50 states for months. 7 were just removed. This is an improvement over what it was. So it’s not going to hurt anymore than it had been for the past few months that it was already in place. With the 7 states that were removed all drivable, it may not help airlines all that much, but I don’t see how this change hurts them?
 
cpl22586
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Wed Jul 01, 2020 3:59 am

 
HNLSLCPDX
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Wed Jul 01, 2020 5:41 am

Does anyone know why B6’s IAD focus city didn’t work out? I remember the older B6 route maps and IAD was a focus city to several destinations.
 
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jfklganyc
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Wed Jul 01, 2020 10:48 am

HNLSLCPDX wrote:
Does anyone know why B6’s IAD focus city didn’t work out? I remember the older B6 route maps and IAD was a focus city to several destinations.



It’s not that it didn’t work out.

How much smaller airline, and they got a bunch of DCA and LGA slots.

At the time they needed the planes elsewhere, and they never built it back up because it was probably marginal

AUS and IAD Are the two biggest mistakes in Jetblue short history
 
wnflyguy
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Wed Jul 01, 2020 3:10 pm

jfklganyc wrote:
HNLSLCPDX wrote:
Does anyone know why B6’s IAD focus city didn’t work out? I remember the older B6 route maps and IAD was a focus city to several destinations.



It’s not that it didn’t work out.

How much smaller airline, and they got a bunch of DCA and LGA slots.

At the time they needed the planes elsewhere, and they never built it back up because it was probably marginal

AUS and IAD Are the two biggest mistakes in Jetblue short history


Once JetBlue made a plan to build up IAD WN immediately jumping into the market to defend it's back yard. It couldn't let B6 grow IAD because that would have hurt WNs BWI marketshare.

And Once B6 pulled away from IAD WN quickly scale down IAD to a small spoke city.

Same thing with DCA JetBlue going for massive slots WN saw the threat and had to buy into the market to fight.


Flyguy
My Wings are clipped just another Retired Airline person. The Ultimate Armchair out of the loop airline industry geek. Aloha Mr Hand!
 
tphuang
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Wed Jul 01, 2020 9:15 pm

Well, this is a nice news for everyone
https://paxex.aero/2020/07/jetblue-pilo ... pril-2021/

Good for the pilots. Would allow JetBlue to add back capacity faster if demand snaps back in the winter.
 
HNLSLCPDX
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Wed Jul 01, 2020 10:09 pm

wnflyguy wrote:
jfklganyc wrote:
HNLSLCPDX wrote:
Does anyone know why B6’s IAD focus city didn’t work out? I remember the older B6 route maps and IAD was a focus city to several destinations.



It’s not that it didn’t work out.

How much smaller airline, and they got a bunch of DCA and LGA slots.

At the time they needed the planes elsewhere, and they never built it back up because it was probably marginal

AUS and IAD Are the two biggest mistakes in Jetblue short history


Once JetBlue made a plan to build up IAD WN immediately jumping into the market to defend it's back yard. It couldn't let B6 grow IAD because that would have hurt WNs BWI marketshare.

And Once B6 pulled away from IAD WN quickly scale down IAD to a small spoke city.

Same thing with DCA JetBlue going for massive slots WN saw the threat and had to buy into the market to fight.


Flyguy

Agree on AUS. They definitely had an opportunity to make it a focus city.
 
tphuang
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Thu Jul 02, 2020 12:12 pm

As we turn into July, a look at how many flights JetBlue is bringing back at each of the major focus cities vs competitors

JFK: B6 at 85, DL at 48, AA at 11
BOS: B6 at 77, DL at 25, AA at 29
FLL: B6 at 39, WN at 39, NK at 57 - NK is definitely bringing things back really fast in July vs June

AA appears to still be on June schedule, so those numbers should go up a week from no. Everyone else should be on July schedule. Huge jump for JetBlue from June to July.
 
Flflyer83
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Thu Jul 02, 2020 1:03 pm

tphuang wrote:
As we turn into July, a look at how many flights JetBlue is bringing back at each of the major focus cities vs competitors

JFK: B6 at 85, DL at 48, AA at 11
BOS: B6 at 77, DL at 25, AA at 29
FLL: B6 at 39, WN at 39, NK at 57 - NK is definitely bringing things back really fast in July vs June

AA appears to still be on June schedule, so those numbers should go up a week from no. Everyone else should be on July schedule. Huge jump for JetBlue from June to July.


Comparing apples to oranges here as these “major focus cities” compose 95% of JetBlue’s operation. A better comparison would be to measure overall ASM now compared to same time last year.
 
CaptainObvious1
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Thu Jul 02, 2020 4:12 pm

tphuang wrote:
Well, this is a nice news for everyone
https://paxex.aero/2020/07/jetblue-pilo ... pril-2021/

Good for the pilots. Would allow JetBlue to add back capacity faster if demand snaps back in the winter.


The question is... what is the union being asked to give up in exchange for no furloughs? Right now it is a 70 hour guarantee per month, could this be lowered to 60 or 50 in exchange for no furloughs?
 
tphuang
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Thu Jul 02, 2020 8:23 pm

CaptainObvious1 wrote:
tphuang wrote:
Well, this is a nice news for everyone
https://paxex.aero/2020/07/jetblue-pilo ... pril-2021/

Good for the pilots. Would allow JetBlue to add back capacity faster if demand snaps back in the winter.


The question is... what is the union being asked to give up in exchange for no furloughs? Right now it is a 70 hour guarantee per month, could this be lowered to 60 or 50 in exchange for no furloughs?


very few people know the answer to that question right now.

Anyway, looks like JetBlue might be able to avoid furlough company wide.

https://paxex.aero/2020/07/jetblue-hits ... tion-plan/
Looks like support center and salaried staff are most likely to see layoffs.
 
TonyClifton
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Thu Jul 02, 2020 8:36 pm

CaptainObvious1 wrote:
tphuang wrote:
Well, this is a nice news for everyone
https://paxex.aero/2020/07/jetblue-pilo ... pril-2021/

Good for the pilots. Would allow JetBlue to add back capacity faster if demand snaps back in the winter.


The question is... what is the union being asked to give up in exchange for no furloughs? Right now it is a 70 hour guarantee per month, could this be lowered to 60 or 50 in exchange for no furloughs?

That would be my guess, temporary ALV reduction for the duration of the no furlough agreement.
 
JoseSalazar
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Thu Jul 02, 2020 8:53 pm

TonyClifton wrote:
CaptainObvious1 wrote:
tphuang wrote:
Well, this is a nice news for everyone
https://paxex.aero/2020/07/jetblue-pilo ... pril-2021/

Good for the pilots. Would allow JetBlue to add back capacity faster if demand snaps back in the winter.


The question is... what is the union being asked to give up in exchange for no furloughs? Right now it is a 70 hour guarantee per month, could this be lowered to 60 or 50 in exchange for no furloughs?

That would be my guess, temporary ALV reduction for the duration of the no furlough agreement.


To be clear, an ALV reduction is different than a reduction in credit guarantee. They could reduce ALV (currently 74 min) to say 50....but would still have to pay min guarantee. A reduction in pay guarantee would require membership ratification per the B6ALPA policy manual, which didn’t happen. Guess we will see soon enough what the details are.
 
TonyClifton
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Thu Jul 02, 2020 8:56 pm

JoseSalazar wrote:
TonyClifton wrote:
CaptainObvious1 wrote:

The question is... what is the union being asked to give up in exchange for no furloughs? Right now it is a 70 hour guarantee per month, could this be lowered to 60 or 50 in exchange for no furloughs?

That would be my guess, temporary ALV reduction for the duration of the no furlough agreement.


To be clear, an ALV reduction is different than a reduction in credit guarantee. They could reduce ALV (currently 74 min) to say 50....but would still have to pay min guarantee. A reduction in pay guarantee would require membership ratification per the B6ALPA policy manual, which didn’t happen. Guess we will see soon enough what the details are.

What options are available in Sec23 for furlough mitigation? Don’t have a copy of the B6 CBA on the hard drive :/
 
JoseSalazar
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Thu Jul 02, 2020 9:16 pm

TonyClifton wrote:
JoseSalazar wrote:
TonyClifton wrote:
That would be my guess, temporary ALV reduction for the duration of the no furlough agreement.


To be clear, an ALV reduction is different than a reduction in credit guarantee. They could reduce ALV (currently 74 min) to say 50....but would still have to pay min guarantee. A reduction in pay guarantee would require membership ratification per the B6ALPA policy manual, which didn’t happen. Guess we will see soon enough what the details are.

What options are available in Sec23 for furlough mitigation? Don’t have a copy of the B6 CBA on the hard drive :/


including but not limited to the following items:
1 Bid divisors
2 RSV periods
3 Credit caps
4 Part time awards
5 Early retirement incentives

Alpa policy manual says the MEC will seek membership ratification of other proposed agreements or Letters of Agreement which modify contractual pay or that significantly modify work rules. That didn’t happen, so in theory contractual pay wasn’t touched. We will see what work rules were changed and what their definition of “not significant” is when the details emerge.
 
TonyClifton
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Thu Jul 02, 2020 9:22 pm

JoseSalazar wrote:
TonyClifton wrote:
JoseSalazar wrote:

To be clear, an ALV reduction is different than a reduction in credit guarantee. They could reduce ALV (currently 74 min) to say 50....but would still have to pay min guarantee. A reduction in pay guarantee would require membership ratification per the B6ALPA policy manual, which didn’t happen. Guess we will see soon enough what the details are.

What options are available in Sec23 for furlough mitigation? Don’t have a copy of the B6 CBA on the hard drive :/


including but not limited to the following items:
1 Bid divisors
2 RSV periods
3 Credit caps
4 Part time awards
5 Early retirement incentives

Alpa policy manual says the MEC will seek membership ratification of other proposed agreements or Letters of Agreement which modify contractual pay or that significantly modify work rules. That didn’t happen, so in theory contractual pay wasn’t touched. We will see what work rules were changed and what their definition of “not significant” is when the details emerge.

It’ll definitely set the new bar for what other airlines and pilot groups negotiate going forward. Very curious to see, but relieved for my friends at JB who will be employed for the next year at least.
 
tphuang
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Thu Jul 02, 2020 9:49 pm

If demand is still so low by next may that they need to do furlough, the entire industry is in trouble.
 
TonyClifton
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Thu Jul 02, 2020 9:53 pm

tphuang wrote:
If demand is still so low by next may that they need to do furlough, the entire industry is in trouble.

Fully agreed there. May might be long enough to weather this storm and hopefully bridge the gap to a vaccine and treatment.
 
tphuang
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Fri Jul 03, 2020 2:57 am

May is a rather interesting time to pick. If I had to guess, the next time we see a spike in demand will be Christmas to NY. And after that, I'd anticipate demand to not pick up again until March break. Once April and May comes around, I think JetBlue is expecting there to be a lot of pent up travel demand if we achieve herd immunity by then through vaccination. Who knows where business demand out of BOS will look like, but VFR/leisure demand for NY/Boston/Florida should be back to pretty high level.

Having all the pilots around in April/May would be a good time for them to quickly claim slots at JFK/LGA and add flights at EWR before legacies are ready to do so. It would seem to me like JetBlue management is taking a healthy worthwhile gamble here to gain market share next year. It makes me more optimistic than a week ago that most of their recently announced new routes will actually go forward as planned, especially JFK/EWR ones.

Given that I do think there is some risk here, it would make sense for them to get additional loan from federal gov't. And additional billion dollar would give them the war chest to compete with all that ULCC pressure.
 
Blueknows
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Fri Jul 03, 2020 9:47 am

17 cities total outsourced to business partner model. B6 will have B6 supervisors and manger. The inside and outside will be contract. Start date OCT 1st.
Btv,msp,orh,sav,roc,syr,sav,bur,dfw,abq,rno,srq,ric,cle,alb,dtw,den
 
Blueknows
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Fri Jul 03, 2020 12:01 pm

Updated PDX- SMF-IAH added to list
 
USAavdork
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Fri Jul 03, 2020 1:38 pm

Blueknows: Where do you see that? The app won’t even let book PDX-IAH.
 
ericm2031
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Fri Jul 03, 2020 2:50 pm

USAavdork wrote:
Blueknows: Where do you see that? The app won’t even let book PDX-IAH.


I think those were more added outsourced stations, not a route
 
Blueknows
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Fri Jul 03, 2020 4:17 pm

Outsourced..B6 is getting rid of west coast travel intra California.By fall LGB PRETTY MUCH GONE
 
dca1
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Fri Jul 03, 2020 10:25 pm

Blueknows wrote:
17 cities total outsourced to business partner model. B6 will have B6 supervisors and manger. The inside and outside will be contract. Start date OCT 1st.
Btv,msp,orh,sav,roc,syr,sav,bur,dfw,abq,rno,srq,ric,cle,alb,dtw,den


Any ideas as to why DFW was outsourced but IAH was not? Any chance of possible expansion out of IAH station?
 
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LAXintl
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Fri Jul 03, 2020 10:38 pm

dca1 wrote:
Blueknows wrote:
17 cities total outsourced to business partner model. B6 will have B6 supervisors and manger. The inside and outside will be contract. Start date OCT 1st.
Btv,msp,orh,sav,roc,syr,sav,bur,dfw,abq,rno,srq,ric,cle,alb,dtw,den


Any ideas as to why DFW was outsourced but IAH was not? Any chance of possible expansion out of IAH station?


Houston is being outsourced.

I posted the full and correct list on the outsourcing thread.
From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
 
ROCDLFAN
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sat Jul 04, 2020 4:45 am

So just to confirm- the Station Manager and Supervisors within the station will remain B6 but the actual employees will be contracted? Assuming the contractor has their own in station manager as well? Either I’m misunderstanding which is a distinct possibility or this sounds like a jumbled mess.
"The strength of the turbulence is directly proportional to the temperature of your coffee."
 
trueblew
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sat Jul 04, 2020 11:26 am

ROCDLFAN wrote:
So just to confirm- the Station Manager and Supervisors within the station will remain B6 but the actual employees will be contracted? Assuming the contractor has their own in station manager as well? Either I’m misunderstanding which is a distinct possibility or this sounds like a jumbled mess.


It's not unique or new in the industry to have a mainline-employed station manager overseeing outsourced station agents.
 
Boston757
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sat Jul 04, 2020 4:44 pm

How’s it going with the FA group? Spirit seems to be up and running and I haven’t heard of an overage of FAs. However, the operate on a thin margin AA had a huge overage with the decrease of all the trans pacific and Atlantic flying not to mention Deep South America. I assume the Big 2 are in the same boat. Alaska FAs said they will know more by the end of July.
 
CobaltScar
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sat Jul 04, 2020 5:27 pm

Boston757 wrote:
How’s it going with the FA group? Spirit seems to be up and running and I haven’t heard of an overage of FAs. However, the operate on a thin margin AA had a huge overage with the decrease of all the trans pacific and Atlantic flying not to mention Deep South America. I assume the Big 2 are in the same boat. Alaska FAs said they will know more by the end of July.


You will know the answer to this in under 2 weeks.
 
tphuang
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sat Jul 04, 2020 6:31 pm

Boston757 wrote:
How’s it going with the FA group? Spirit seems to be up and running and I haven’t heard of an overage of FAs. However, the operate on a thin margin AA had a huge overage with the decrease of all the trans pacific and Atlantic flying not to mention Deep South America. I assume the Big 2 are in the same boat. Alaska FAs said they will know more by the end of July.


Given that JetBlue is not doing involuntary layoffs of pilots, I would imagine they would try to work out something similar with flight attendants. Hard to fly the planes without flight attendants on them. There is also some unmeasurable value in keeping morale high in your pilot and flight attendants by not doing any involuntary furlough in the worst crisis facing the airline industry that we can all remember. Especially when that relationship had been fractured from contract negotiations.

JetBlue is going to need its crew member if it wants to take up the temporary void left over by legacy carriers in the northeast. Especially since ua and dl are going to really piss of their pilots and flight attendants with massive furlough.

It’s the salaried employees that I am afraid are likely to see some involuntary layoffs or pay reductions.

As for other airlines, I think nk and f9 are going to do pretty bad. Both cut like 90% of their schedule in May and June only to bring them back really fast in July. From what I can gather on available sources, their optimistic scheduling for July is not working out. The sudden deterioration in sunbelt state is crushing their ability to fill the aircraft. Legacies are going to see massive reductions in their flight attendants numbers. Alaska is likely to see some involuntary furlough too. I think southwest and allegiant probably are in best shape here.
 
tphuang
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sun Jul 05, 2020 2:43 pm

OAG from this week
Looks like DL has cut JFK-KIN, BOS-NAS/AUA (with BDA cut until April). Also, some other early reductions for them with JFK-SJU down to 3x again and STI/SDQ down to 1x in September. I also see them down 1x daily on ATL-GUA (should help JetBlue on JFK-GUA)

When this started, I though JFK-KIN was toast all along, but was hoping JetBlue could force them out on STI/SDQ also. That doesn't look to be happening as of now. I see that JetBlue has added more capacity to STI/SDQ later this month. STI is up to 7x daily and SDQ is up to 6x. Not a surprise if you are looking at how far sold out they are on these flights.

One of the byproduct of declined corporate travel is that DL probably can't sustain as many of these heavy VFR routes. As VFR demand comes back rapidly this and next year to Latin America, aggressive scheduling by JetBlue may force DL out of more of these markets. Having monopoly on something like JFK-STI would be huge.
 
tphuang
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Tue Jul 07, 2020 5:29 pm

https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/sou ... irus-loans
Alright, looks like JetBlue did get loans after all. Makes a lot of sense to build up a war chest to get through a worst case scenario or take advantage of legacy downsizing in Northeast. Aside from no dividend and buyback, I don't know of any other negative stipulations. I'm assuming the interest rate here is lower than what they could find in private markets.
 
Flflyer83
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Tue Jul 07, 2020 6:13 pm

Don’t forget, B6 has already put in to motion laying off quite a few people with the outsourcing of stations. It seems as though tphuang just doesn’t want to confront that when going on and on about how well JetBlue is playing this situation that all carriers are in. Like it or not, those B6 employees are employees that are being either furloughed or laid off. In the end, those with seniority may be allowed to move to different stations and bump people out which would cause all kinds of headaches with morale when peoples friends start getting shown the door.
 
tphuang
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Tue Jul 07, 2020 6:20 pm

Flflyer83 wrote:
Don’t forget, B6 has already put in to motion laying off quite a few people with the outsourcing of stations. It seems as though tphuang just doesn’t want to confront that when going on and on about how well JetBlue is playing this situation that all carriers are in. Like it or not, those B6 employees are employees that are being either furloughed or laid off. In the end, those with seniority may be allowed to move to different stations and bump people out which would cause all kinds of headaches with morale when peoples friends start getting shown the door.


I did not say anywhere that there won't be furloughs. If there are enough people taking voluntary time off or separation, then they won't have to. Otherwise, there will be involuntary layoffs or furloughs coming. Feel free to quote the part where I said otherwise.
 
trueblew
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Wed Jul 08, 2020 12:47 pm

tphuang wrote:
https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/southwest-delta-united-alaska-jetblue-airlines-coronavirus-loans
Alright, looks like JetBlue did get loans after all. Makes a lot of sense to build up a war chest to get through a worst case scenario or take advantage of legacy downsizing in Northeast. Aside from no dividend and buyback, I don't know of any other negative stipulations. I'm assuming the interest rate here is lower than what they could find in private markets.


I can't speak to the situation with the other airlines mentioned in that article, but JB came to an agreement with the government on terms for CARES loans of over $1b however they have not committed to taking the loan and have until the end of September to make a decision.
 
vtchaz78
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Thu Jul 09, 2020 6:28 pm

It's all moving to LAX. JetBlue gives LGB the boot.

http://blueir.investproductions.com/inv ... -180823514
 
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ChrisNH38
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Fri Jul 10, 2020 1:08 am

LGB is groveling for more service in the wake of this, but officials there are so antagonist and adversarial to airlines that any pleas will fall on (literally) deaf ears.
https://my.flightradar24.com/ChrisNH
 
tphuang
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Fri Jul 10, 2020 1:27 pm

It's such a weird time when JetBlue is more aggressively going after legacy reductions than other LCCs. Very unusual for them. They have already done almost everything that we discussed here 2 months ago. The only thing left seems to be getting more LGA slots, but that will take a while. It seems like they are both more optimist and willing to be risky than other carriers.

Here is an interesting update on what they think of the current demand level.
https://skift.com/2020/07/09/hopes-dash ... nK6BuyAUI1
In an interview Thursday, Scott Laurence, JetBlue Airways’ head of revenue and planning, also said he has seen a dip in demand. But he said he remains optimistic, saying JetBlue can at least cover the costs with it current schedule — something it could not always do a couple of months ago.

“We have certainly have seen things slow, particularly in the quarantine-impacted East Coast markets,” he said. “But it’s not like we saw earlier in this crisis."


Interesting bit here. Looks like even though things have taken a hit recently, JetBlue is still pretty optimistic. Looks like at least they are still getting positive booking #s, which weren't the case for much of April and May. Based on that, it seems like most of the new flights are going forward still.

What's left for JetBlue management to do now? Maybe getting more gates at SFO? I see everyone cutting back there. Maybe JetBlue can grow into a 30 to 40 flight operation there. That will give them some west coast presence.
 
BlueBaller
Posts: 77
Joined: Sun Sep 01, 2019 8:07 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Fri Jul 10, 2020 3:46 pm

tphuang wrote:
Here is an interesting update on what they think of the current demand level.
https://skift.com/2020/07/09/hopes-dash ... nK6BuyAUI1
In an interview Thursday, Scott Laurence, JetBlue Airways’ head of revenue and planning, also said he has seen a dip in demand. But he said he remains optimistic, saying JetBlue can at least cover the costs with it current schedule — something it could not always do a couple of months ago.

“We have certainly have seen things slow, particularly in the quarantine-impacted East Coast markets,” he said. “But it’s not like we saw earlier in this crisis."


Interesting bit here. Looks like even though things have taken a hit recently, JetBlue is still pretty optimistic. Looks like at least they are still getting positive booking #s, which weren't the case for much of April and May. Based on that, it seems like most of the new flights are going forward still.

What's left for JetBlue management to do now? Maybe getting more gates at SFO? I see everyone cutting back there. Maybe JetBlue can grow into a 30 to 40 flight operation there. That will give them some west coast presence.


I'm good buddies with an ALPA Local union rep, we spoke the other day and as it stands now, JetBlue is turning a $1,000/day profit systemwide. Hopefully things continue along this current trajectory.
 
strfyr51
Posts: 5100
Joined: Tue Apr 10, 2012 5:04 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sat Jul 11, 2020 1:33 am

Happy to see B6 moving to LAX to take their place with the rest of the front line carriers both National and International.
 
JoseSalazar
Posts: 282
Joined: Mon Oct 14, 2019 3:18 am

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sat Jul 11, 2020 1:37 am

BlueBaller wrote:
tphuang wrote:
Here is an interesting update on what they think of the current demand level.
https://skift.com/2020/07/09/hopes-dash ... nK6BuyAUI1
In an interview Thursday, Scott Laurence, JetBlue Airways’ head of revenue and planning, also said he has seen a dip in demand. But he said he remains optimistic, saying JetBlue can at least cover the costs with it current schedule — something it could not always do a couple of months ago.

“We have certainly have seen things slow, particularly in the quarantine-impacted East Coast markets,” he said. “But it’s not like we saw earlier in this crisis."


Interesting bit here. Looks like even though things have taken a hit recently, JetBlue is still pretty optimistic. Looks like at least they are still getting positive booking #s, which weren't the case for much of April and May. Based on that, it seems like most of the new flights are going forward still.

What's left for JetBlue management to do now? Maybe getting more gates at SFO? I see everyone cutting back there. Maybe JetBlue can grow into a 30 to 40 flight operation there. That will give them some west coast presence.


I'm good buddies with an ALPA Local union rep, we spoke the other day and as it stands now, JetBlue is turning a $1,000/day profit systemwide. Hopefully things continue along this current trajectory.

That is definitely not what Steve P said today in the internal call.
 
BlueBaller
Posts: 77
Joined: Sun Sep 01, 2019 8:07 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sat Jul 11, 2020 6:13 am

JoseSalazar wrote:
BlueBaller wrote:
tphuang wrote:
Here is an interesting update on what they think of the current demand level.
https://skift.com/2020/07/09/hopes-dash ... nK6BuyAUI1


Interesting bit here. Looks like even though things have taken a hit recently, JetBlue is still pretty optimistic. Looks like at least they are still getting positive booking #s, which weren't the case for much of April and May. Based on that, it seems like most of the new flights are going forward still.

What's left for JetBlue management to do now? Maybe getting more gates at SFO? I see everyone cutting back there. Maybe JetBlue can grow into a 30 to 40 flight operation there. That will give them some west coast presence.


I'm good buddies with an ALPA Local union rep, we spoke the other day and as it stands now, JetBlue is turning a $1,000/day profit systemwide. Hopefully things continue along this current trajectory.

That is definitely not what Steve P said today in the internal call.


:checkmark:
 
tphuang
Posts: 5478
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sat Jul 11, 2020 5:04 pm

We know the incremental cost of operating more flights isn't that high in this low fuel cost environment. So maybe they will keep a more aggressive schedule out there to capture. They have said that with net zero booking, they were burning close to $10 million per day and a regular day from last year generates about $22 million per day in booking. So if they were doing better in end of June before the quarantine orders came out and got about 25% of their regular bookings, they were probably generating $5.5 million in booking revenue per day. If we add the additional flying in end of June compared to May, they probably got cash burn down to $5 to 6 million a day near end of June. Since then, if net booking is down to 15 to 20% of their regular bookings, they are probably generating $4 million in booking revenue a day. If we include the additional cost of more flying in July, they are probably burning $7 to 8 million a day at this moment if I had to guess. They would probably need to generate around $15 million a day in net booking/ancillary revenue before they can be cash neutral.


Taking a look at what I think their west coast strategy can look like a few years. Looking strictly at Cali airport for now.

First the secondary airports:
BUR - 2x A321N to JFK does really well and 1x A320 to BOS does poorly. I would assume those stay as is and they will add a flight to EWR since there is a lot of demand to NY/NJ area they can capture.
ONT - 1x A320 to JFK did pretty well last summer and I think they will go permanently to 2x JFK and possibly 1x EWR going forward.
SNA - I assume they will get 3 slots here at some point and run 1 A220 flight each to JFK/BOS/EWR.
SJC - 1x to JFK will stick around as is. 1 to 2x to BOS depending on time of year. 1x EWR if AS leaves the market.
SAN - 3x to JFK, 4 to 5x BOS, 2x to EWR, 1x FLL and 1x MCO. Not really sure the mint distribution here.

LAX - This is what I think a 70 flight schedule could look like.
17x to JFK/EWR, 6x BOS, 6x FLL, 3x IAD, 2x HNL on mint (33 flights in total)
A320 or A321 flight to BUF/MCO/PIT/CLE/BDL
A220 flight to HPN/PBI/JAX/CHS
A320 or A321s into GUA/SAL/SJO/LIR/PVR/SJD
7x A220 to SFO, 4x A321 to LAS, 3x A220 to SEA, 3x A220 to SMF, 3x A220 to PHX, 2x A320 to SLC, 1x A321 RNO + some seasonal 1x to BZN/HDN or similar type of airports.
Using what I have here, they probably need an A220 base in LAX. The number of flights to SFO/SEA/PHX/DEN is based on the lowest number I see on these routes for a big 4 carrier. For example, WN has 7x to SFO and AA has 8x. AA is 4x to SEA and UA is 2x. UA is 3x to SMF and AA is 4x. UA is 4x to PHX. A220 is basically the most economic aircraft they can run on these business markets that require some level of frequency. A321 to LAS/RNO is to lower their cost on trunk leisure routes.

This would allow them to somewhat adequately serve 6 out of top 10 markets out of LA and 12 out of top 17. That's not terrible. It would also give more connection options for their East coast customers to come to various destinations in west coast.

SFO - I think they will need to run a schedule like this
11x to JFK/EWR, 7x BOS, 4x FLL, 1x MCO for transcon stuff
7x A220 to LAX, 2x A321 to LAS
Currently, they have at most 3 gates at SFO. They should look to have at least 4 gates at SFO.
 
phllax
Posts: 614
Joined: Wed Jan 11, 2006 6:53 am

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sat Jul 11, 2020 5:55 pm

tphuang wrote:
Taking a look at what I think their west coast strategy can look like a few years. Looking strictly at Cali airport for now.

First the secondary airports:
BUR - 2x A321N to JFK does really well and 1x A320 to BOS does poorly. I would assume those stay as is and they will add a flight to EWR since there is a lot of demand to NY/NJ area they can capture.
ONT - 1x A320 to JFK did pretty well last summer and I think they will go permanently to 2x JFK and possibly 1x EWR going forward.

LAX - This is what I think a 70 flight schedule could look like.
17x to JFK/EWR, 6x BOS, 6x FLL, 3x IAD, 2x HNL on mint (33 flights in total)
A320 or A321 flight to BUF/MCO/PIT/CLE/BDL
A220 flight to HPN/PBI/JAX/CHS
A320 or A321s into GUA/SAL/SJO/LIR/PVR/SJD
7x A220 to SFO, 4x A321 to LAS, 3x A220 to SEA, 3x A220 to SMF, 3x A220 to PHX, 2x A320 to SLC, 1x A321 RNO + some seasonal 1x to BZN/HDN or similar type of airports.



BUR-BOS was doing better with the Eastbound morning departure instead of the awful 4:30 am arrival when it was a red-eye. I would also hope they add EWR, even on a 320.

As for LAX, I just don't see 6x FLL, maybe 4-5, especially if they have 2 early morning departures, but I just don't see demand or room on either side for 6. I do see PBI, and also PHL, especially f this experiment this fall works out. JAX and CHS are long shots, with DL trying JAX several times over the years.
 
EADSYABSOB73857
Posts: 81
Joined: Mon Apr 08, 2019 11:35 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sat Jul 11, 2020 7:35 pm

tphuang wrote:
We know the incremental cost of operating more flights isn't that high in this low fuel cost environment. So maybe they will keep a more aggressive schedule out there to capture. They have said that with net zero booking, they were burning close to $10 million per day and a regular day from last year generates about $22 million per day in booking. So if they were doing better in end of June before the quarantine orders came out and got about 25% of their regular bookings, they were probably generating $5.5 million in booking revenue per day. If we add the additional flying in end of June compared to May, they probably got cash burn down to $5 to 6 million a day near end of June. Since then, if net booking is down to 15 to 20% of their regular bookings, they are probably generating $4 million in booking revenue a day. If we include the additional cost of more flying in July, they are probably burning $7 to 8 million a day at this moment if I had to guess. They would probably need to generate around $15 million a day in net booking/ancillary revenue before they can be cash neutral.


Taking a look at what I think their west coast strategy can look like a few years. Looking strictly at Cali airport for now.

First the secondary airports:
BUR - 2x A321N to JFK does really well and 1x A320 to BOS does poorly. I would assume those stay as is and they will add a flight to EWR since there is a lot of demand to NY/NJ area they can capture.
ONT - 1x A320 to JFK did pretty well last summer and I think they will go permanently to 2x JFK and possibly 1x EWR going forward.
SNA - I assume they will get 3 slots here at some point and run 1 A220 flight each to JFK/BOS/EWR.
SJC - 1x to JFK will stick around as is. 1 to 2x to BOS depending on time of year. 1x EWR if AS leaves the market.
SAN - 3x to JFK, 4 to 5x BOS, 2x to EWR, 1x FLL and 1x MCO. Not really sure the mint distribution here.

LAX - This is what I think a 70 flight schedule could look like.
17x to JFK/EWR, 6x BOS, 6x FLL, 3x IAD, 2x HNL on mint (33 flights in total)
A320 or A321 flight to BUF/MCO/PIT/CLE/BDL
A220 flight to HPN/PBI/JAX/CHS
A320 or A321s into GUA/SAL/SJO/LIR/PVR/SJD
7x A220 to SFO, 4x A321 to LAS, 3x A220 to SEA, 3x A220 to SMF, 3x A220 to PHX, 2x A320 to SLC, 1x A321 RNO + some seasonal 1x to BZN/HDN or similar type of airports.
Using what I have here, they probably need an A220 base in LAX. The number of flights to SFO/SEA/PHX/DEN is based on the lowest number I see on these routes for a big 4 carrier. For example, WN has 7x to SFO and AA has 8x. AA is 4x to SEA and UA is 2x. UA is 3x to SMF and AA is 4x. UA is 4x to PHX. A220 is basically the most economic aircraft they can run on these business markets that require some level of frequency. A321 to LAS/RNO is to lower their cost on trunk leisure routes.

This would allow them to somewhat adequately serve 6 out of top 10 markets out of LA and 12 out of top 17. That's not terrible. It would also give more connection options for their East coast customers to come to various destinations in west coast.

SFO - I think they will need to run a schedule like this
11x to JFK/EWR, 7x BOS, 4x FLL, 1x MCO for transcon stuff
7x A220 to LAX, 2x A321 to LAS
Currently, they have at most 3 gates at SFO. They should look to have at least 4 gates at SFO.


Congrats to B6 for seizing on a good opportunity at the right time. My only questions are- where are they going to get the planes for all of this growth you are predicting?? B6 has previously stated growth goals of flights to Europe, BOS 200, FLL 140, MCO 100. I realize that lack of demand right now at BOS, NYC and FLL has decreased flights, but what happens when that demand returns and they need to add flights back to remain competitive, how are they going to add flights back, grow their main focus cities, fly to Europe and grow EWR and LAX the way you're predicting. Again, where are all these planes coming from? A220 is pretty much a 1 for 1 swap out with the E190 (10 extra frames), and BOS is stated as the main A220 base. I'm surprised you're listing all these other A220 flights ex BOS.
 
EADSYABSOB73857
Posts: 81
Joined: Mon Apr 08, 2019 11:35 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sat Jul 11, 2020 7:38 pm

phllax wrote:
tphuang wrote:
Taking a look at what I think their west coast strategy can look like a few years. Looking strictly at Cali airport for now.

First the secondary airports:
BUR - 2x A321N to JFK does really well and 1x A320 to BOS does poorly. I would assume those stay as is and they will add a flight to EWR since there is a lot of demand to NY/NJ area they can capture.
ONT - 1x A320 to JFK did pretty well last summer and I think they will go permanently to 2x JFK and possibly 1x EWR going forward.

LAX - This is what I think a 70 flight schedule could look like.
17x to JFK/EWR, 6x BOS, 6x FLL, 3x IAD, 2x HNL on mint (33 flights in total)
A320 or A321 flight to BUF/MCO/PIT/CLE/BDL
A220 flight to HPN/PBI/JAX/CHS
A320 or A321s into GUA/SAL/SJO/LIR/PVR/SJD
7x A220 to SFO, 4x A321 to LAS, 3x A220 to SEA, 3x A220 to SMF, 3x A220 to PHX, 2x A320 to SLC, 1x A321 RNO + some seasonal 1x to BZN/HDN or similar type of airports.



BUR-BOS was doing better with the Eastbound morning departure instead of the awful 4:30 am arrival when it was a red-eye. I would also hope they add EWR, even on a 320.

As for LAX, I just don't see 6x FLL, maybe 4-5, especially if they have 2 early morning departures, but I just don't see demand or room on either side for 6. I do see PBI, and also PHL, especially f this experiment this fall works out. JAX and CHS are long shots, with DL trying JAX several times over the years.


Yes this is correct. BOS-BUR did noticeably improve after the flight time adjustment was made- loads were in mid to high 80s. It´s not as bad as tphuang says it was.

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