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EADSYABSOB73857
Posts: 80
Joined: Mon Apr 08, 2019 11:35 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sat Jul 11, 2020 7:54 pm

tphuang wrote:
Taking a look at what I think their west coast strategy can look like a few years. Looking strictly at Cali airport for now.

First the secondary airports:
BUR - 2x A321N to JFK does really well and 1x A320 to BOS does poorly. I would assume those stay as is and they will add a flight to EWR since there is a lot of demand to NY/NJ area they can capture.
ONT - 1x A320 to JFK did pretty well last summer and I think they will go permanently to 2x JFK and possibly 1x EWR going forward.
SNA - I assume they will get 3 slots here at some point and run 1 A220 flight each to JFK/BOS/EWR.
SJC - 1x to JFK will stick around as is. 1 to 2x to BOS depending on time of year. 1x EWR if AS leaves the market.
SAN - 3x to JFK, 4 to 5x BOS, 2x to EWR, 1x FLL and 1x MCO. Not really sure the mint distribution here.

LAX - This is what I think a 70 flight schedule could look like.
17x to JFK/EWR, 6x BOS, 6x FLL, 3x IAD, 2x HNL on mint (33 flights in total)
A320 or A321 flight to BUF/MCO/PIT/CLE/BDL
A220 flight to HPN/PBI/JAX/CHS
A320 or A321s into GUA/SAL/SJO/LIR/PVR/SJD
7x A220 to SFO, 4x A321 to LAS, 3x A220 to SEA, 3x A220 to SMF, 3x A220 to PHX, 2x A320 to SLC, 1x A321 RNO + some seasonal 1x to BZN/HDN or similar type of airports.
Using what I have here, they probably need an A220 base in LAX. The number of flights to SFO/SEA/PHX/DEN is based on the lowest number I see on these routes for a big 4 carrier. For example, WN has 7x to SFO and AA has 8x. AA is 4x to SEA and UA is 2x. UA is 3x to SMF and AA is 4x. UA is 4x to PHX. A220 is basically the most economic aircraft they can run on these business markets that require some level of frequency. A321 to LAS/RNO is to lower their cost on trunk leisure routes.

This would allow them to somewhat adequately serve 6 out of top 10 markets out of LA and 12 out of top 17. That's not terrible. It would also give more connection options for their East coast customers to come to various destinations in west coast.

SFO - I think they will need to run a schedule like this
11x to JFK/EWR, 7x BOS, 4x FLL, 1x MCO for transcon stuff
7x A220 to LAX, 2x A321 to LAS
Currently, they have at most 3 gates at SFO. They should look to have at least 4 gates at SFO.


I agree that B6 will get new flights in on the west coast, but some of this is comical. I think you are way too bullish out of the gate on some of these EWR adds... way too bullish. We are going to have to see how some of these flights do after they start- the proof will be in the pudding. If things go really well, then I would agree more flights will follow. But at this point, I just don't see EWR being this new unicorn base you are painting it out to be. You are assuming all of this as if UA will have nothing to say about it. You can argue as much as you want that the legacies are not in an ideal situation at this exact moment to retaliate, but if you think UA is just going to stand by while B6 adds all of these new flights in UA's NYC fortress hub, you are dreaming. Also, B6 LAX-IAD....? Not sure where you're thought process is coming from. No way B6 is adding an unserved city from LAX (huge start-up costs), especially after B6 pulled flights from BOS and FLL to IAD, two significantly larger and more important focus cities than LAX- no way LAX is going to have a flight there when there aren't flights to BOS or FLL. Plus, it's a UA premium TCON and hub to hub route. No way.
 
Wingtips56
Posts: 1291
Joined: Thu Dec 16, 2010 1:26 am

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sat Jul 11, 2020 11:13 pm

I'm sure it's buried somewhere in the preceding 19 pages, but I'll ask anyway: when is B6 likely to introduce the A220? And when will they have enough to form a base of them anywhere? Why would they open a base (for A220) at LAX before NYC? I'm just wondering about all of these predictions for the Base at LAX and all that West Coast A220 flying, when it may still be a long way off.
Worked for WestAir, Apollo Airways, Desert Pacific, Western, AirCal and American Airlines (Retired). Flight Memory: 181 airports, 92 airlines, 78 a/c types, 403 routes, 58 countries (by air), 6 continents. 1,119,414 passenger miles.

Home airport : CEC
 
tphuang
Posts: 5325
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sat Jul 11, 2020 11:16 pm

EADSYABSOB73857 wrote:
Congrats to B6 for seizing on a good opportunity at the right time. My only questions are- where are they going to get the planes for all of this growth you are predicting?? B6 has previously stated growth goals of flights to Europe, BOS 200, FLL 140, MCO 100. I realize that lack of demand right now at BOS, NYC and FLL has decreased flights, but what happens when that demand returns and they need to add flights back to remain competitive, how are they going to add flights back, grow their main focus cities, fly to Europe and grow EWR and LAX the way you're predicting. Again, where are all these planes coming from? A220 is pretty much a 1 for 1 swap out with the E190 (10 extra frames), and BOS is stated as the main A220 base. I'm surprised you're listing all these other A220 flights ex BOS.


Most of the LAX growth will not start until 2023. That's basically when they will be getting a lot of A220s. The initial A220 base will be in BOS. By 2023, they will already have 16 in service, so other focus cities should start getting them. JetBlue internally has been saying they intend to use A220s out of LAX. I assume they will set up an A220 base out there.

I assume MCO growth won't happen. FLL probably won't get back to pre-COVID size for a while. 140 might be 2025 kind of thing. BOS probably won't get to 200 until some times after business demand is back.

They are not doing any pilot furloughs, so looks like they plan to run a 90 to 100% by next summer. That means a lot of capacity will be in JFK + EWR.

EADSYABSOB73857 wrote:
I agree that B6 will get new flights in on the west coast, but some of this is comical. I think you are way too bullish out of the gate on some of these EWR adds... way too bullish. We are going to have to see how some of these flights do after they start- the proof will be in the pudding. If things go really well, then I would agree more flights will follow. But at this point, I just don't see EWR being this new unicorn base you are painting it out to be. You are assuming all of this as if UA will have nothing to say about it. You can argue as much as you want that the legacies are not in an ideal situation at this exact moment to retaliate, but if you think UA is just going to stand by while B6 adds all of these new flights in UA's NYC fortress hub, you are dreaming. Also, B6 LAX-IAD....? Not sure where you're thought process is coming from. No way B6 is adding an unserved city from LAX (huge start-up costs), especially after B6 pulled flights from BOS and FLL to IAD, two significantly larger and more important focus cities than LAX- no way LAX is going to have a flight there when there aren't flights to BOS or FLL. Plus, it's a UA premium TCON and hub to hub route. No way.

A significant portion of the LAX adds I listed are based on JetBlue's internal emails and conversations with its staff. Others are just some of the largest markets out of LAX. Aside from existing mint transcon, it does seem like they will add another mint destination from LAX. PHL and IAD look to be the most obvious choices. Of those 2, I think it makes more sense to serve IAD than PHL. If they do add back IAD, then I assume BOS and FLL will get added too.

All the recent moves indicate B6 is in the middle of a pretty significant network realignment. Adding back IAD would be a beneficial move for their network.
 
strfyr51
Posts: 5030
Joined: Tue Apr 10, 2012 5:04 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sat Jul 11, 2020 11:40 pm

EADSYABSOB73857 wrote:
tphuang wrote:
Taking a look at what I think their west coast strategy can look like a few years. Looking strictly at Cali airport for now.

First the secondary airports:
BUR - 2x A321N to JFK does really well and 1x A320 to BOS does poorly. I would assume those stay as is and they will add a flight to EWR since there is a lot of demand to NY/NJ area they can capture.
ONT - 1x A320 to JFK did pretty well last summer and I think they will go permanently to 2x JFK and possibly 1x EWR going forward.
SNA - I assume they will get 3 slots here at some point and run 1 A220 flight each to JFK/BOS/EWR.
SJC - 1x to JFK will stick around as is. 1 to 2x to BOS depending on time of year. 1x EWR if AS leaves the market.
SAN - 3x to JFK, 4 to 5x BOS, 2x to EWR, 1x FLL and 1x MCO. Not really sure the mint distribution here.

LAX - This is what I think a 70 flight schedule could look like.
17x to JFK/EWR, 6x BOS, 6x FLL, 3x IAD, 2x HNL on mint (33 flights in total)
A320 or A321 flight to BUF/MCO/PIT/CLE/BDL
A220 flight to HPN/PBI/JAX/CHS
A320 or A321s into GUA/SAL/SJO/LIR/PVR/SJD
7x A220 to SFO, 4x A321 to LAS, 3x A220 to SEA, 3x A220 to SMF, 3x A220 to PHX, 2x A320 to SLC, 1x A321 RNO + some seasonal 1x to BZN/HDN or similar type of airports.
Using what I have here, they probably need an A220 base in LAX. The number of flights to SFO/SEA/PHX/DEN is based on the lowest number I see on these routes for a big 4 carrier. For example, WN has 7x to SFO and AA has 8x. AA is 4x to SEA and UA is 2x. UA is 3x to SMF and AA is 4x. UA is 4x to PHX. A220 is basically the most economic aircraft they can run on these business markets that require some level of frequency. A321 to LAS/RNO is to lower their cost on trunk leisure routes.

This would allow them to somewhat adequately serve 6 out of top 10 markets out of LA and 12 out of top 17. That's not terrible. It would also give more connection options for their East coast customers to come to various destinations in west coast.

SFO - I think they will need to run a schedule like this
11x to JFK/EWR, 7x BOS, 4x FLL, 1x MCO for transcon stuff
7x A220 to LAX, 2x A321 to LAS
Currently, they have at most 3 gates at SFO. They should look to have at least 4 gates at SFO.


I agree that B6 will get new flights in on the west coast, but some of this is comical. I think you are way too bullish out of the gate on some of these EWR adds... way too bullish. We are going to have to see how some of these flights do after they start- the proof will be in the pudding. If things go really well, then I would agree more flights will follow. But at this point, I just don't see EWR being this new unicorn base you are painting it out to be. You are assuming all of this as if UA will have nothing to say about it. You can argue as much as you want that the legacies are not in an ideal situation at this exact moment to retaliate, but if you think UA is just going to stand by while B6 adds all of these new flights in UA's NYC fortress hub, you are dreaming. Also, B6 LAX-IAD....? Not sure where you're thought process is coming from. No way B6 is adding an unserved city from LAX (huge start-up costs), especially after B6 pulled flights from BOS and FLL to IAD, two significantly larger and more important focus cities than LAX- no way LAX is going to have a flight there when there aren't flights to BOS or FLL. Plus, it's a UA premium TCON and hub to hub route. No way.

well? you're right. United is adding 25,000 flights starting in August (just read it on the newsline) So B6 had better Do what they're going to do in a hurry!! because they're going to have to Defend whatever moves they make at SFO,LAX, and EWR so? This is going to get REAL in one hell of a hurry! And Since they're on everybody else's turf? They very well may have to defend their OWN! But one good thing? They can no longer claim anybody is doing predatory pricing or schedules so it's just a matter of "Step up and take your best shot" and? We shall see wht we shall SEE!
 
Nicknuzzii
Posts: 1234
Joined: Sat Sep 15, 2018 5:57 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sun Jul 12, 2020 1:19 am

What is the likely hood of TATL flights from EWR?
 
EADSYABSOB73857
Posts: 80
Joined: Mon Apr 08, 2019 11:35 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sun Jul 12, 2020 1:41 am

Nicknuzzii wrote:
What is the likely hood of TATL flights from EWR?


None. Now people are dreaming. If B6 ventures outside of their main bases in adding TATL flights, that will be their demise. They do not have enough resources to grow their core focus cities (BOS, JFK, FLL), grow EWR and LAX, have to fight for their positions with legacies in all of these markets (especially EWR and LAX), add Europe flights from BOS and JFK, and add TATL flights out of non-focus cities... If they do that everyone will step up and they will have too many fires to put out. B6 is not going to go from being the most conservative airline to the most aggressive just like that.
 
EADSYABSOB73857
Posts: 80
Joined: Mon Apr 08, 2019 11:35 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sun Jul 12, 2020 2:01 am

tphuang wrote:
EADSYABSOB73857 wrote:
Congrats to B6 for seizing on a good opportunity at the right time. My only questions are- where are they going to get the planes for all of this growth you are predicting?? B6 has previously stated growth goals of flights to Europe, BOS 200, FLL 140, MCO 100. I realize that lack of demand right now at BOS, NYC and FLL has decreased flights, but what happens when that demand returns and they need to add flights back to remain competitive, how are they going to add flights back, grow their main focus cities, fly to Europe and grow EWR and LAX the way you're predicting. Again, where are all these planes coming from? A220 is pretty much a 1 for 1 swap out with the E190 (10 extra frames), and BOS is stated as the main A220 base. I'm surprised you're listing all these other A220 flights ex BOS.


Most of the LAX growth will not start until 2023. That's basically when they will be getting a lot of A220s. The initial A220 base will be in BOS. By 2023, they will already have 16 in service, so other focus cities should start getting them. JetBlue internally has been saying they intend to use A220s out of LAX. I assume they will set up an A220 base out there.

I assume MCO growth won't happen. FLL probably won't get back to pre-COVID size for a while. 140 might be 2025 kind of thing. BOS probably won't get to 200 until some times after business demand is back.

They are not doing any pilot furloughs, so looks like they plan to run a 90 to 100% by next summer. That means a lot of capacity will be in JFK + EWR.

EADSYABSOB73857 wrote:
I agree that B6 will get new flights in on the west coast, but some of this is comical. I think you are way too bullish out of the gate on some of these EWR adds... way too bullish. We are going to have to see how some of these flights do after they start- the proof will be in the pudding. If things go really well, then I would agree more flights will follow. But at this point, I just don't see EWR being this new unicorn base you are painting it out to be. You are assuming all of this as if UA will have nothing to say about it. You can argue as much as you want that the legacies are not in an ideal situation at this exact moment to retaliate, but if you think UA is just going to stand by while B6 adds all of these new flights in UA's NYC fortress hub, you are dreaming. Also, B6 LAX-IAD....? Not sure where you're thought process is coming from. No way B6 is adding an unserved city from LAX (huge start-up costs), especially after B6 pulled flights from BOS and FLL to IAD, two significantly larger and more important focus cities than LAX- no way LAX is going to have a flight there when there aren't flights to BOS or FLL. Plus, it's a UA premium TCON and hub to hub route. No way.

A significant portion of the LAX adds I listed are based on JetBlue's internal emails and conversations with its staff. Others are just some of the largest markets out of LAX. Aside from existing mint transcon, it does seem like they will add another mint destination from LAX. PHL and IAD look to be the most obvious choices. Of those 2, I think it makes more sense to serve IAD than PHL. If they do add back IAD, then I assume BOS and FLL will get added too.

All the recent moves indicate B6 is in the middle of a pretty significant network realignment. Adding back IAD would be a beneficial move for their network.


Ok... well you didn't really answer the question. If you figure the A220s are a 1 for 1 swap out for the E190s that will leave 10 left over. B6 already stated they will add/grow smaller destinations out of BOS- their largest business market, with those excess planes. 10 extra planes doesn't leave them much room for growth. Unless they switch a ton of E190 flights to A320s (a lot can´t handle that up-gauge), I don't see how they will have enough planes for growth (unless they order more planes). Let's figure this..... Grow BOS, grow JFK, grow FLL, grow EWR, grow LAX, add niche flights to SFO, CLE, PHL (as you have stated or suggest)... as it stands right now- they have 70 A220s on order and after the swap out with the E190s that leaves 10+. They have roughly 50 more A321neos coming in for delivery, 13 A321neoLRs (for Europe, maybe HI-if they chose to add.. will result in a blood bath/all out war), 13 A321neoXLRs- slated for Europe. So, LRs and XLRs are pretty much all slated for Europe, that leaves 10 extra A220s and about 40-45 A321neos (some are earmarked for already newly announced flights). I rephrase my initial question- where are these planes coming from in order to grow BOS, JFK, FLL, EWR, and LAX? I don't feel those are enough planes at all to fund that growth. My feeling is that LAX- 70 flights could be much like MCO- They want to get there, but depending on how things go, it might not happen. EWR- most of this is a focus right now as a way to redistribute assets while BOS, JFK and FLL are down. They will keep some EWR destinations no doubt, but as they have to re-add flights to BOS, JFK and FLL they are going to eventually run out of resources, especially if DL and UA start re-adding flights back at a fast clip in those cities as demand resurges. They will not have enough resources to distribute to all of these places, especially once the competition starts re-adding, which they will.
 
EADSYABSOB73857
Posts: 80
Joined: Mon Apr 08, 2019 11:35 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sun Jul 12, 2020 2:12 am

tphuang wrote:
Most of the LAX growth will not start until 2023. That's basically when they will be getting a lot of A220s. The initial A220 base will be in BOS. By 2023, they will already have 16 in service, so other focus cities should start getting them. JetBlue internally has been saying they intend to use A220s out of LAX. I assume they will set up an A220 base out there.

I assume MCO growth won't happen. FLL probably won't get back to pre-COVID size for a while. 140 might be 2025 kind of thing. BOS probably won't get to 200 until some times after business demand is back.

They are not doing any pilot furloughs, so looks like they plan to run a 90 to 100% by next summer. That means a lot of capacity will be in JFK + EWR.

A significant portion of the LAX adds I listed are based on JetBlue's internal emails and conversations with its staff. Others are just some of the largest markets out of LAX. Aside from existing mint transcon, it does seem like they will add another mint destination from LAX. PHL and IAD look to be the most obvious choices. Of those 2, I think it makes more sense to serve IAD than PHL. If they do add back IAD, then I assume BOS and FLL will get added too.

All the recent moves indicate B6 is in the middle of a pretty significant network realignment. Adding back IAD would be a beneficial move for their network.


After all of the growth they've already committed to in their largest focus cities, Europe flying, EWR and LAX adds, you think they are going to re-enter a market they exited a year and a half earlier and run a flight from LAX which is premium TCON and hub to hub for UA. I think you are a bit ahead of yourself, especially given that B6 has been the most conservative airline in their endeavors. They are really risking a war with UA while engaging in one with DL at BOS and most likely DL at JFK after the JFK-DTW and JFK-MSP adds. I just don't see this happening, i think it's a pipe-dream.
 
EADSYABSOB73857
Posts: 80
Joined: Mon Apr 08, 2019 11:35 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sun Jul 12, 2020 2:28 am

tphuang wrote:

A significant portion of the LAX adds I listed are based on JetBlue's internal emails and conversations with its staff. Others are just some of the largest markets out of LAX. Aside from existing mint transcon, it does seem like they will add another mint destination from LAX. PHL and IAD look to be the most obvious choices. Of those 2, I think it makes more sense to serve IAD than PHL. If they do add back IAD, then I assume BOS and FLL will get added too.

All the recent moves indicate B6 is in the middle of a pretty significant network realignment. Adding back IAD would be a beneficial move for their network.


We know that quotes from people on this forum about conversations with airline staff is hearsay and have a tendency to not materialize and is not a legitimate source, so don't quote that.

And I would actually argue LAX-PHL is a better MINT option due to AA's weakness and lack of lie-flat options on that route compared to WAS-LAX.
 
tphuang
Posts: 5325
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sun Jul 12, 2020 3:05 am

EADSYABSOB73857 wrote:
Ok... well you didn't really answer the question. If you figure the A220s are a 1 for 1 swap out for the E190s that will leave 10 left over. B6 already stated they will add/grow smaller destinations out of BOS- their largest business market, with those excess planes. 10 extra planes doesn't leave them much room for growth. Unless they switch a ton of E190 flights to A320s (a lot can´t handle that up-gauge), I don't see how they will have enough planes for growth (unless they order more planes). Let's figure this..... Grow BOS, grow JFK, grow FLL, grow EWR, grow LAX, add niche flights to SFO, CLE, PHL (as you have stated or suggest)... as it stands right now- they have 70 A220s on order and after the swap out with the E190s that leaves 10+. They have roughly 50 more A321neos coming in for delivery, 13 A321neoLRs (for Europe, maybe HI-if they chose to add.. will result in a blood bath/all out war), 13 A321neoXLRs- slated for Europe. So, LRs and XLRs are pretty much all slated for Europe, that leaves 10 extra A220s and about 40-45 A321neos (some are earmarked for already newly announced flights). I rephrase my initial question- where are these planes coming from in order to grow BOS, JFK, FLL, EWR, and LAX? I don't feel those are enough planes at all to fund that growth. My feeling is that LAX- 70 flights could be much like MCO- They want to get there, but depending on how things go, it might not happen. EWR- most of this is a focus right now as a way to redistribute assets while BOS, JFK and FLL are down. They will keep some EWR destinations no doubt, but as they have to re-add flights to BOS, JFK and FLL they are going to eventually run out of resources, especially if DL and UA start re-adding flights back at a fast clip in those cities as demand resurges. They will not have enough resources to distribute to all of these places, especially once the competition starts re-adding, which they will.


If you take a look at their utilization on E90 and A320 series, the difference is dramatic (E90 is about 3/4 of A320 I think). 70 A220 replacing 60 E90s is quite a bit of growth. They have been upgauging A320 to A321 and also E90 to A320 in Boston.

They are not growing FLL and MCO anytime soon. We can assume that FLL/MCO will be below pre-COVID size for a while. BOS will be smaller until business demand comes back. LAX growth won't come until 2023 when A321 and A220 deliveries pick up again. And even then, 20 to 30 additional flights in 3 years is not that dramatic. JFK/EWR are going to be the main growth area for the next year and half while slots and gates are open at these airports. They are not going to lose gates at BOS/FLL if they take their time coming back.

Let's say by next summer, they are running 90 to 95% of their 2020 scheduled summer. So they will be running about 80 fewer flights than what was scheduled in summer 2020. If they are running 140x daily at BOS (40 less), 70x daily at FLL (30 less), 40x daily at MCO (25 less), 15 less elsewhere. They would be able to add about 30 flights to NY/NJ area. So they could run a schedule of 190 flights at JFK and 55 at EWR.

EADSYABSOB73857 wrote:
We know that quotes from people on this forum about conversations with airline staff is hearsay and have a tendency to not materialize and is not a legitimate source, so don't quote that.

And I would actually argue LAX-PHL is a better MINT option due to AA's weakness and lack of lie-flat options on that route compared to WAS-LAX.

There is certainly a good argument for PHL. It may very well happen.
 
arfbool
Posts: 100
Joined: Wed Sep 08, 2010 2:02 am

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sun Jul 12, 2020 3:16 am

tphuang wrote:
Taking a look at what I think their west coast strategy can look like a few years. Looking strictly at Cali airport for now.

First the secondary airports:
BUR - 2x A321N to JFK does really well and 1x A320 to BOS does poorly. I would assume those stay as is and they will add a flight to EWR since there is a lot of demand to NY/NJ area they can capture.
.


I'd be first in line for BUR-EWR if that ever became a reality. Fingers crossed!
 
tphuang
Posts: 5325
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sun Jul 12, 2020 3:02 pm

well, that was fast. JFK-LGB flights got moved to EWR-LAX. So now for November, they are scheduled in for 12x on JFK-LAX and 5x EWR-LAX. BOS-LAX remains 5x and FLL-LAX remains 4x. I'm sure they won't actually fly that much since they don't actually have enough mint aircraft for it, but they are scheduled in for 38 departures in November out of LAX. I'm sure they will end up flying less than that.

I think once they get enough mint configured A321s, EWR could be seeing double digit in number of mint flights. Something like 6x EWR-LAX and 4x EWR-SFO should be reasonable.

Also, if performance on JFK-ONT continues to improve, they could try year round BOS-ONT service and drop BOS-PSP.
 
Nicknuzzii
Posts: 1234
Joined: Sat Sep 15, 2018 5:57 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sun Jul 12, 2020 3:12 pm

tphuang wrote:
well, that was fast. JFK-LGB flights got moved to EWR-LAX. So now for November, they are scheduled in for 12x on JFK-LAX and 5x EWR-LAX. BOS-LAX remains 5x and FLL-LAX remains 4x. I'm sure they won't actually fly that much since they don't actually have enough mint aircraft for it, but they are scheduled in for 38 departures in November out of LAX. I'm sure they will end up flying less than that.

I think once they get enough mint configured A321s, EWR could be seeing double digit in number of mint flights. Something like 6x EWR-LAX and 4x EWR-SFO should be reasonable.

Also, if performance on JFK-ONT continues to improve, they could try year round BOS-ONT service and drop BOS-PSP.


I think the Caribbean Mint routes will be the first ones to get trimmed. FLL and JFK also don’t need so much Mint capacity during this time.

EWR bumped up quickly. It’s almost weird to see SFO so low.
 
maverick4002
Posts: 287
Joined: Sun Jul 12, 2015 2:14 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sun Jul 12, 2020 6:08 pm

tphuang wrote:
We know the incremental cost of operating more flights isn't that high in this low fuel cost environment. So maybe they will keep a more aggressive schedule out there to capture. They have said that with net zero booking, they were burning close to $10 million per day and a regular day from last year generates about $22 million per day in booking. So if they were doing better in end of June before the quarantine orders came out and got about 25% of their regular bookings, they were probably generating $5.5 million in booking revenue per day. If we add the additional flying in end of June compared to May, they probably got cash burn down to $5 to 6 million a day near end of June. Since then, if net booking is down to 15 to 20% of their regular bookings, they are probably generating $4 million in booking revenue a day. If we include the additional cost of more flying in July, they are probably burning $7 to 8 million a day at this moment if I had to guess. They would probably need to generate around $15 million a day in net booking/ancillary revenue before they can be cash neutral.


Taking a look at what I think their west coast strategy can look like a few years. Looking strictly at Cali airport for now.

First the secondary airports:
BUR - 2x A321N to JFK does really well and 1x A320 to BOS does poorly. I would assume those stay as is and they will add a flight to EWR since there is a lot of demand to NY/NJ area they can capture.
ONT - 1x A320 to JFK did pretty well last summer and I think they will go permanently to 2x JFK and possibly 1x EWR going forward.
SNA - I assume they will get 3 slots here at some point and run 1 A220 flight each to JFK/BOS/EWR.
SJC - 1x to JFK will stick around as is. 1 to 2x to BOS depending on time of year. 1x EWR if AS leaves the market.
SAN - 3x to JFK, 4 to 5x BOS, 2x to EWR, 1x FLL and 1x MCO. Not really sure the mint distribution here.

LAX - This is what I think a 70 flight schedule could look like.
17x to JFK/EWR, 6x BOS, 6x FLL, 3x IAD, 2x HNL on mint (33 flights in total)
A320 or A321 flight to BUF/MCO/PIT/CLE/BDL
A220 flight to HPN/PBI/JAX/CHS
A320 or A321s into GUA/SAL/SJO/LIR/PVR/SJD
7x A220 to SFO, 4x A321 to LAS, 3x A220 to SEA, 3x A220 to SMF, 3x A220 to PHX, 2x A320 to SLC, 1x A321 RNO + some seasonal 1x to BZN/HDN or similar type of airports.
Using what I have here, they probably need an A220 base in LAX. The number of flights to SFO/SEA/PHX/DEN is based on the lowest number I see on these routes for a big 4 carrier. For example, WN has 7x to SFO and AA has 8x. AA is 4x to SEA and UA is 2x. UA is 3x to SMF and AA is 4x. UA is 4x to PHX. A220 is basically the most economic aircraft they can run on these business markets that require some level of frequency. A321 to LAS/RNO is to lower their cost on trunk leisure routes.

This would allow them to somewhat adequately serve 6 out of top 10 markets out of LA and 12 out of top 17. That's not terrible. It would also give more connection options for their East coast customers to come to various destinations in west coast.

SFO - I think they will need to run a schedule like this
11x to JFK/EWR, 7x BOS, 4x FLL, 1x MCO for transcon stuff
7x A220 to LAX, 2x A321 to LAS
Currently, they have at most 3 gates at SFO. They should look to have at least 4 gates at SFO.


Where are you getting your information that specific flights do poorly? See, the Burbank Boston flight. In another comment you also said JFK-LAX is their best domestic route and generates double the net profit or revenue (cant remember exactly) of the next two most profitable flights combined.
 
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sun Jul 12, 2020 7:44 pm

EADSYABSOB73857 wrote:
tphuang wrote:
We know the incremental cost of operating more flights isn't that high in this low fuel cost environment. So maybe they will keep a more aggressive schedule out there to capture. They have said that with net zero booking, they were burning close to $10 million per day and a regular day from last year generates about $22 million per day in booking. So if they were doing better in end of June before the quarantine orders came out and got about 25% of their regular bookings, they were probably generating $5.5 million in booking revenue per day. If we add the additional flying in end of June compared to May, they probably got cash burn down to $5 to 6 million a day near end of June. Since then, if net booking is down to 15 to 20% of their regular bookings, they are probably generating $4 million in booking revenue a day. If we include the additional cost of more flying in July, they are probably burning $7 to 8 million a day at this moment if I had to guess. They would probably need to generate around $15 million a day in net booking/ancillary revenue before they can be cash neutral.


Taking a look at what I think their west coast strategy can look like a few years. Looking strictly at Cali airport for now.

First the secondary airports:
BUR - 2x A321N to JFK does really well and 1x A320 to BOS does poorly. I would assume those stay as is and they will add a flight to EWR since there is a lot of demand to NY/NJ area they can capture.
ONT - 1x A320 to JFK did pretty well last summer and I think they will go permanently to 2x JFK and possibly 1x EWR going forward.
SNA - I assume they will get 3 slots here at some point and run 1 A220 flight each to JFK/BOS/EWR.
SJC - 1x to JFK will stick around as is. 1 to 2x to BOS depending on time of year. 1x EWR if AS leaves the market.
SAN - 3x to JFK, 4 to 5x BOS, 2x to EWR, 1x FLL and 1x MCO. Not really sure the mint distribution here.

LAX - This is what I think a 70 flight schedule could look like.
17x to JFK/EWR, 6x BOS, 6x FLL, 3x IAD, 2x HNL on mint (33 flights in total)
A320 or A321 flight to BUF/MCO/PIT/CLE/BDL
A220 flight to HPN/PBI/JAX/CHS
A320 or A321s into GUA/SAL/SJO/LIR/PVR/SJD
7x A220 to SFO, 4x A321 to LAS, 3x A220 to SEA, 3x A220 to SMF, 3x A220 to PHX, 2x A320 to SLC, 1x A321 RNO + some seasonal 1x to BZN/HDN or similar type of airports.
Using what I have here, they probably need an A220 base in LAX. The number of flights to SFO/SEA/PHX/DEN is based on the lowest number I see on these routes for a big 4 carrier. For example, WN has 7x to SFO and AA has 8x. AA is 4x to SEA and UA is 2x. UA is 3x to SMF and AA is 4x. UA is 4x to PHX. A220 is basically the most economic aircraft they can run on these business markets that require some level of frequency. A321 to LAS/RNO is to lower their cost on trunk leisure routes.

This would allow them to somewhat adequately serve 6 out of top 10 markets out of LA and 12 out of top 17. That's not terrible. It would also give more connection options for their East coast customers to come to various destinations in west coast.

SFO - I think they will need to run a schedule like this
11x to JFK/EWR, 7x BOS, 4x FLL, 1x MCO for transcon stuff
7x A220 to LAX, 2x A321 to LAS
Currently, they have at most 3 gates at SFO. They should look to have at least 4 gates at SFO.


Congrats to B6 for seizing on a good opportunity at the right time. My only questions are- where are they going to get the planes for all of this growth you are predicting?? B6 has previously stated growth goals of flights to Europe, BOS 200, FLL 140, MCO 100. I realize that lack of demand right now at BOS, NYC and FLL has decreased flights, but what happens when that demand returns and they need to add flights back to remain competitive, how are they going to add flights back, grow their main focus cities, fly to Europe and grow EWR and LAX the way you're predicting. Again, where are all these planes coming from? A220 is pretty much a 1 for 1 swap out with the E190 (10 extra frames), and BOS is stated as the main A220 base. I'm surprised you're listing all these other A220 flights ex BOS.


The quick answer to your question is Boston.

Boston was heavily dependent on short haul, high frequency, business service on the 190.

That will stay shelved for now and BOS will be smaller going forward.

The longer answer is, MCO expansion will get put on the dusty shelf for a more important airport...again. This is nothing new. It has happened several times at B6.

FLL will also stay smaller in the immediate future until things quiet down in South Florida.

LAX is really a very gradual expansion. LGB will fund the immediate boost. The big story here is 5 daily to EWR.


EWR and NYC are the immediate winners. I really see EWR closing in on 100 flights. That is just my opinion. Leisure, Islands, Transcons.

JFK is also a winner. Plenty of AA slots. Plenty of gates. You already see holes in the domestic network being filled in: Dallas Detroit and MSP
 
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sun Jul 12, 2020 10:15 pm

maverick4002 wrote:
tphuang wrote:
We know the incremental cost of operating more flights isn't that high in this low fuel cost environment. So maybe they will keep a more aggressive schedule out there to capture. They have said that with net zero booking, they were burning close to $10 million per day and a regular day from last year generates about $22 million per day in booking. So if they were doing better in end of June before the quarantine orders came out and got about 25% of their regular bookings, they were probably generating $5.5 million in booking revenue per day. If we add the additional flying in end of June compared to May, they probably got cash burn down to $5 to 6 million a day near end of June. Since then, if net booking is down to 15 to 20% of their regular bookings, they are probably generating $4 million in booking revenue a day. If we include the additional cost of more flying in July, they are probably burning $7 to 8 million a day at this moment if I had to guess. They would probably need to generate around $15 million a day in net booking/ancillary revenue before they can be cash neutral.


Taking a look at what I think their west coast strategy can look like a few years. Looking strictly at Cali airport for now.

First the secondary airports:
BUR - 2x A321N to JFK does really well and 1x A320 to BOS does poorly. I would assume those stay as is and they will add a flight to EWR since there is a lot of demand to NY/NJ area they can capture.
ONT - 1x A320 to JFK did pretty well last summer and I think they will go permanently to 2x JFK and possibly 1x EWR going forward.
SNA - I assume they will get 3 slots here at some point and run 1 A220 flight each to JFK/BOS/EWR.
SJC - 1x to JFK will stick around as is. 1 to 2x to BOS depending on time of year. 1x EWR if AS leaves the market.
SAN - 3x to JFK, 4 to 5x BOS, 2x to EWR, 1x FLL and 1x MCO. Not really sure the mint distribution here.

LAX - This is what I think a 70 flight schedule could look like.
17x to JFK/EWR, 6x BOS, 6x FLL, 3x IAD, 2x HNL on mint (33 flights in total)
A320 or A321 flight to BUF/MCO/PIT/CLE/BDL
A220 flight to HPN/PBI/JAX/CHS
A320 or A321s into GUA/SAL/SJO/LIR/PVR/SJD
7x A220 to SFO, 4x A321 to LAS, 3x A220 to SEA, 3x A220 to SMF, 3x A220 to PHX, 2x A320 to SLC, 1x A321 RNO + some seasonal 1x to BZN/HDN or similar type of airports.
Using what I have here, they probably need an A220 base in LAX. The number of flights to SFO/SEA/PHX/DEN is based on the lowest number I see on these routes for a big 4 carrier. For example, WN has 7x to SFO and AA has 8x. AA is 4x to SEA and UA is 2x. UA is 3x to SMF and AA is 4x. UA is 4x to PHX. A220 is basically the most economic aircraft they can run on these business markets that require some level of frequency. A321 to LAS/RNO is to lower their cost on trunk leisure routes.

This would allow them to somewhat adequately serve 6 out of top 10 markets out of LA and 12 out of top 17. That's not terrible. It would also give more connection options for their East coast customers to come to various destinations in west coast.

SFO - I think they will need to run a schedule like this
11x to JFK/EWR, 7x BOS, 4x FLL, 1x MCO for transcon stuff
7x A220 to LAX, 2x A321 to LAS
Currently, they have at most 3 gates at SFO. They should look to have at least 4 gates at SFO.


Where are you getting your information that specific flights do poorly? See, the Burbank Boston flight. In another comment you also said JFK-LAX is their best domestic route and generates double the net profit or revenue (cant remember exactly) of the next two most profitable flights combined.


Before COVID-19 BOS-PIT was B6 most profitable route
 
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Posts: 3856
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sun Jul 12, 2020 10:33 pm

Blueknows wrote:
maverick4002 wrote:
tphuang wrote:
We know the incremental cost of operating more flights isn't that high in this low fuel cost environment. So maybe they will keep a more aggressive schedule out there to capture. They have said that with net zero booking, they were burning close to $10 million per day and a regular day from last year generates about $22 million per day in booking. So if they were doing better in end of June before the quarantine orders came out and got about 25% of their regular bookings, they were probably generating $5.5 million in booking revenue per day. If we add the additional flying in end of June compared to May, they probably got cash burn down to $5 to 6 million a day near end of June. Since then, if net booking is down to 15 to 20% of their regular bookings, they are probably generating $4 million in booking revenue a day. If we include the additional cost of more flying in July, they are probably burning $7 to 8 million a day at this moment if I had to guess. They would probably need to generate around $15 million a day in net booking/ancillary revenue before they can be cash neutral.


Taking a look at what I think their west coast strategy can look like a few years. Looking strictly at Cali airport for now.

First the secondary airports:
BUR - 2x A321N to JFK does really well and 1x A320 to BOS does poorly. I would assume those stay as is and they will add a flight to EWR since there is a lot of demand to NY/NJ area they can capture.
ONT - 1x A320 to JFK did pretty well last summer and I think they will go permanently to 2x JFK and possibly 1x EWR going forward.
SNA - I assume they will get 3 slots here at some point and run 1 A220 flight each to JFK/BOS/EWR.
SJC - 1x to JFK will stick around as is. 1 to 2x to BOS depending on time of year. 1x EWR if AS leaves the market.
SAN - 3x to JFK, 4 to 5x BOS, 2x to EWR, 1x FLL and 1x MCO. Not really sure the mint distribution here.

LAX - This is what I think a 70 flight schedule could look like.
17x to JFK/EWR, 6x BOS, 6x FLL, 3x IAD, 2x HNL on mint (33 flights in total)
A320 or A321 flight to BUF/MCO/PIT/CLE/BDL
A220 flight to HPN/PBI/JAX/CHS
A320 or A321s into GUA/SAL/SJO/LIR/PVR/SJD
7x A220 to SFO, 4x A321 to LAS, 3x A220 to SEA, 3x A220 to SMF, 3x A220 to PHX, 2x A320 to SLC, 1x A321 RNO + some seasonal 1x to BZN/HDN or similar type of airports.
Using what I have here, they probably need an A220 base in LAX. The number of flights to SFO/SEA/PHX/DEN is based on the lowest number I see on these routes for a big 4 carrier. For example, WN has 7x to SFO and AA has 8x. AA is 4x to SEA and UA is 2x. UA is 3x to SMF and AA is 4x. UA is 4x to PHX. A220 is basically the most economic aircraft they can run on these business markets that require some level of frequency. A321 to LAS/RNO is to lower their cost on trunk leisure routes.

This would allow them to somewhat adequately serve 6 out of top 10 markets out of LA and 12 out of top 17. That's not terrible. It would also give more connection options for their East coast customers to come to various destinations in west coast.

SFO - I think they will need to run a schedule like this
11x to JFK/EWR, 7x BOS, 4x FLL, 1x MCO for transcon stuff
7x A220 to LAX, 2x A321 to LAS
Currently, they have at most 3 gates at SFO. They should look to have at least 4 gates at SFO.


Where are you getting your information that specific flights do poorly? See, the Burbank Boston flight. In another comment you also said JFK-LAX is their best domestic route and generates double the net profit or revenue (cant remember exactly) of the next two most profitable flights combined.


Before COVID-19 BOS-PIT was B6 most profitable route


That is not true at all, stop making things up.
 
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sun Jul 12, 2020 10:55 pm

Bit of an operational challenge today

FAA advisory -

Image
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EcwlrEeXoAA ... name=large
"We make war that we may live in peace." -- Aristotle
 
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sun Jul 12, 2020 11:11 pm

What will become of the regional E190 routes in the Northeast that go to JFK or BOS, including the New York-only routes for B6 and BTV and to ACK and MVY?
 
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Mon Jul 13, 2020 12:25 pm

usflyer msp wrote:
Blueknows wrote:
maverick4002 wrote:

Where are you getting your information that specific flights do poorly? See, the Burbank Boston flight. In another comment you also said JFK-LAX is their best domestic route and generates double the net profit or revenue (cant remember exactly) of the next two most profitable flights combined.


Before COVID-19 BOS-PIT was B6 most profitable route


That is not true at all, stop making things up.


That is true. You think we operated 5-6 flights a day BOS-PIT because it wasn’t. I didn’t believe it either till
Upper management told us in a TLC meeting
 
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Mon Jul 13, 2020 12:29 pm

https://crankyflier.com/2020/07/13/jetb ... se-at-lax/
I disagree with much of his analysis here, but the tidbit from Scott Laurence is interesting.
- Scott explained that JetBlue had wanted to make this move for a long time. It just couldn’t get more than the 2.5 gates it uses at LAX today… until COVID moved things around. JetBlue will be getting only one more gate now, but it says it has plans to double flights by 2025, so that would obviously require more. Scott said that they are expecting to be able to remain in Terminal 5 as they grow and others move off to the Midfield Satellite Concourse.
- With A220s coming, JetBlue will have more opportunities that fit within its core, profitable strategy of flying longer hauls to the East Coast. Scott even mentioned cities like Hartford and Charleston (SC) as opportunities.

maverick4002 wrote:

Where are you getting your information that specific flights do poorly? See, the Burbank Boston flight. In another comment you also said JFK-LAX is their best domestic route and generates double the net profit or revenue (cant remember exactly) of the next two most profitable flights combined.

Based on fare data and load factor data that's publicly available. Fare data not available for international, so no idea how JFK-LAX compares to stuff like JFK-STI/SDQ. Based on the amount of capacity and margin they run on JFK-LAX, shouldnt' be a surprise this is far and away the most profitable route on their network.

aemoreira1981 wrote:
What will become of the regional E190 routes in the Northeast that go to JFK or BOS, including the New York-only routes for B6 and BTV and to ACK and MVY?

I would assume A220 for those routes. Maybe they will get some A220-100
 
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Mon Jul 13, 2020 1:03 pm

tphuang wrote:
I think once they get enough mint configured A321s, EWR could be seeing double digit in number of mint flights. Something like 6x EWR-LAX and 4x EWR-SFO should be reasonable.

Also, if performance on JFK-ONT continues to improve, they could try year round BOS-ONT service and drop BOS-PSP.


It’s confirmed that they have more MINT configured A321s coming? I missed that announcement then. How many more do they have coming? It makes sense they have more on the way- they need them for all these new MINT routes they want to run, I guess I just missed the announcement.

I myself have been wondering when BOS-ONT might get launched. BOS-BUR has improved and the new capacity seems to be getting absorbed nicely after the retiming. BOS-LAX has been a strong performer consistently, so I think they could hop on BOS-ONT. When do you think that could come? BOS-PSP has been mediocre at best. I’m 50/50 on them cutting it or keeping it. I think it’s a nice niche route and gives more relevance to B6 on the west coast with another transcon to one of B6’s largest bases, but I would guess they are operating it at a loss. If they keep it, I think they should throw a MINT configured plane on the route. Those seats will sell on that route- high wealth vacation destination. MINT configured A220 would be perfect for this route (if they decide to configure any of them that way).
 
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Mon Jul 13, 2020 1:29 pm

EADSYABSOB73857 wrote:
tphuang wrote:
I think once they get enough mint configured A321s, EWR could be seeing double digit in number of mint flights. Something like 6x EWR-LAX and 4x EWR-SFO should be reasonable.

Also, if performance on JFK-ONT continues to improve, they could try year round BOS-ONT service and drop BOS-PSP.


It’s confirmed that they have more MINT configured A321s coming? I missed that announcement then. How many more do they have coming? It makes sense they have more on the way- they need them for all these new MINT routes they want to run, I guess I just missed the announcement.

I myself have been wondering when BOS-ONT might get launched. BOS-BUR has improved and the new capacity seems to be getting absorbed nicely after the retiming. BOS-LAX has been a strong performer consistently, so I think they could hop on BOS-ONT. When do you think that could come? BOS-PSP has been mediocre at best. I’m 50/50 on them cutting it or keeping it. I think it’s a nice niche route and gives more relevance to B6 on the west coast with another transcon to one of B6’s largest bases, but I would guess they are operating it at a loss. If they keep it, I think they should throw a MINT configured plane on the route. Those seats will sell on that route- high wealth vacation destination. MINT configured A220 would be perfect for this route (if they decide to configure any of them that way).


There hasn't been any confirmation of mint configured A321. Just my assumption that they have to do so in order to support some of these additional EWR flying that they are scheduling in for next year. I guess we will find out in the earning call. I would guess there is some overlap in catchment area between ONT and PSP. So if they launch ONT, it might not make sense to keep PSP around.
 
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Fri Jul 17, 2020 7:50 pm

I've been trying to figure out implications for new routes based on their released statements.
http://otp.investis.com/clients/us/jetb ... wsid=69683

This part caught my eyes
"JetBlue will also accelerate its growth in key cities, bringing its award-winning service to more customers. JetBlue will grow in greater New York City, adding flights at LaGuardia (LGA) and Newark (EWR), while also increasing its presence at JFK for seamless connections to American’s expanded international network. "
"As New York’s Hometown Airline®, JetBlue plans to increase flying out of New York’s three major airports, bringing its award-winning experience to more customers. Its growth at JFK will be aimed at offering even more connection opportunities to American’s growing international network of destinations. From both New York and Boston, JetBlue plans to enhance service to strategic markets, including those on the East Coast, West Coast, and in the Southeast. This will further build on JetBlue’s recently announced growth between EWR and nine markets, including Mint service to LAX and SFO. "

and this part is interesting also
“Leisure travel is important to our customers, and JetBlue’s network paired with their award-winning service, are the perfect fit,” said Vasu Raja, Chief Revenue Officer at American Airlines. “Both airlines’ customers value access to more destinations, whether it’s a JetBlue customer who wants more direct access to South America from New York, or an American customer who wants more robust service to Florida. Together, we can give our customers the best of both worlds.”

The biggest reason AA did this deal because they wanted to have JetBlue replace them on a lot of the within-perimeter routes that have been operated by Eagle that were really high cost. I think AA will drop all of these flights and look to have JetBlue replace as much as that as possible. Within perimeter domestic markets from JFK served by Eagle that doesn't currently have JetBlue service from JFK include:
BWI, CVG, CLE, CMH, IND, ORF, PHL, PIT, RIC, DCA
From this list, BWI and PHL are not going to happen because they are too close to have material O&D traffic (which JetBlue needs)
They serve CLE, PIT, RIC and DCA from BOS. I'd rank the likelihood of adding services to those places from JFK in this order DCA, CLE, RIC, PIT. I think all except PIT are likely.

Of the remaining places (CVG, CMH, IND and ORF), it'd really depend on JetBlue's appetite of opening new stations at this point. I would think this partnership should open JetBlue up to adding flights to places where AA has ff but not flights to JFK/BOS. That would include STL, CMH and IND.

The explicitly mentioned adding flights from NY and BOS to strategic markets in east coast, west coast and southeast. So I'm just taking a look at all the places that may have demand from JFK, BOS, EWR and LGA that would be in these region.

BOS - Not too many obvious missing links. Most of their missing markets are in middle of the country.
SNA and ONT seem to be possible adds on the west coast as we discussed earlier.
IAD (if they are willing to re-enter) and ORF seem the most possible on the east coast
SDF, MEM and BHM are the only markets in south east and these are not large markets.

JFK - Nothing really on the west coast outside of SNA since they are very well connected there
I see CLT as an obvious add. Aside from that, IAD, DCA, RIC, ORF, SDF and MEM are all possible. I still don't see these as more important adds as some of the missing links in the midwest.

EWR - AA probably doesn't care much about EWR, so JetBlue is the reason EWR is so prominently featured in this partnership. Their room at EWR just suddenly gotten wider with the possibility that AA will let them use AA's gates there. Also, EWR-PHX made a lot more sense in light of this partnership. Keeping this partnership in mind, I see the most likely adds in these regions are
RDU, BNA, MSY, SNA, BUR, SJC

LGA - One of the most glaring holes out of AA's LGA network is their lack of Florida flights outside of MIA. Vasu also mentioned NY to Florida in his comment. I think expansion of Florida flights and maybe MSY are which much in the cards. I don't know how many slots they will be able to get from AA to do beyond that.
 
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Fri Jul 17, 2020 8:24 pm

tphuang wrote:
I've been trying to figure out implications for new routes based on their released statements.
http://otp.investis.com/clients/us/jetb ... wsid=69683

This part caught my eyes
"JetBlue will also accelerate its growth in key cities, bringing its award-winning service to more customers. JetBlue will grow in greater New York City, adding flights at LaGuardia (LGA) and Newark (EWR), while also increasing its presence at JFK for seamless connections to American’s expanded international network. "
"As New York’s Hometown Airline®, JetBlue plans to increase flying out of New York’s three major airports, bringing its award-winning experience to more customers. Its growth at JFK will be aimed at offering even more connection opportunities to American’s growing international network of destinations. From both New York and Boston, JetBlue plans to enhance service to strategic markets, including those on the East Coast, West Coast, and in the Southeast. This will further build on JetBlue’s recently announced growth between EWR and nine markets, including Mint service to LAX and SFO. "

and this part is interesting also
“Leisure travel is important to our customers, and JetBlue’s network paired with their award-winning service, are the perfect fit,” said Vasu Raja, Chief Revenue Officer at American Airlines. “Both airlines’ customers value access to more destinations, whether it’s a JetBlue customer who wants more direct access to South America from New York, or an American customer who wants more robust service to Florida. Together, we can give our customers the best of both worlds.”

The biggest reason AA did this deal because they wanted to have JetBlue replace them on a lot of the within-perimeter routes that have been operated by Eagle that were really high cost. I think AA will drop all of these flights and look to have JetBlue replace as much as that as possible. Within perimeter domestic markets from JFK served by Eagle that doesn't currently have JetBlue service from JFK include:
BWI, CVG, CLE, CMH, IND, ORF, PHL, PIT, RIC, DCA
From this list, BWI and PHL are not going to happen because they are too close to have material O&D traffic (which JetBlue needs)
They serve CLE, PIT, RIC and DCA from BOS. I'd rank the likelihood of adding services to those places from JFK in this order DCA, CLE, RIC, PIT. I think all except PIT are likely.

Of the remaining places (CVG, CMH, IND and ORF), it'd really depend on JetBlue's appetite of opening new stations at this point. I would think this partnership should open JetBlue up to adding flights to places where AA has ff but not flights to JFK/BOS. That would include STL, CMH and IND.

The explicitly mentioned adding flights from NY and BOS to strategic markets in east coast, west coast and southeast. So I'm just taking a look at all the places that may have demand from JFK, BOS, EWR and LGA that would be in these region.

BOS - Not too many obvious missing links. Most of their missing markets are in middle of the country.
SNA and ONT seem to be possible adds on the west coast as we discussed earlier.
IAD (if they are willing to re-enter) and ORF seem the most possible on the east coast
SDF, MEM and BHM are the only markets in south east and these are not large markets.

JFK - Nothing really on the west coast outside of SNA since they are very well connected there
I see CLT as an obvious add. Aside from that, IAD, DCA, RIC, ORF, SDF and MEM are all possible. I still don't see these as more important adds as some of the missing links in the midwest.

EWR - AA probably doesn't care much about EWR, so JetBlue is the reason EWR is so prominently featured in this partnership. Their room at EWR just suddenly gotten wider with the possibility that AA will let them use AA's gates there. Also, EWR-PHX made a lot more sense in light of this partnership. Keeping this partnership in mind, I see the most likely adds in these regions are
RDU, BNA, MSY, SNA, BUR, SJC

LGA - One of the most glaring holes out of AA's LGA network is their lack of Florida flights outside of MIA. Vasu also mentioned NY to Florida in his comment. I think expansion of Florida flights and maybe MSY are which much in the cards. I don't know how many slots they will be able to get from AA to do beyond that.


Interesting.

I think what often gets overlooked when talking about AA and JFK is the number of AA flights to Latin American destinations. Everyone harps about how much AA has diluted their TATL service from JFK (which is true), but AA still remains the dominant legacy player on NYC flights to Latin America. Again, when someone says Latin America and AA, people tend to only think about MIA. And while MIA is obviously AAs Latin America hub, there is still a lot of Latin American flying from JFK too. This should play into Raja’s comments about AA being able to offer B6 pax more international options. Point being, when considering AA long haul from JFK... think South more than East.
 
kavok
Posts: 844
Joined: Wed May 11, 2016 10:12 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Fri Jul 17, 2020 8:27 pm

tphuang wrote:
I've been trying to figure out implications for new routes based on their released statements.
http://otp.investis.com/clients/us/jetb ... wsid=69683

This part caught my eyes
"JetBlue will also accelerate its growth in key cities, bringing its award-winning service to more customers. JetBlue will grow in greater New York City, adding flights at LaGuardia (LGA) and Newark (EWR), while also increasing its presence at JFK for seamless connections to American’s expanded international network. "
"As New York’s Hometown Airline®, JetBlue plans to increase flying out of New York’s three major airports, bringing its award-winning experience to more customers. Its growth at JFK will be aimed at offering even more connection opportunities to American’s growing international network of destinations. From both New York and Boston, JetBlue plans to enhance service to strategic markets, including those on the East Coast, West Coast, and in the Southeast. This will further build on JetBlue’s recently announced growth between EWR and nine markets, including Mint service to LAX and SFO. "

and this part is interesting also
“Leisure travel is important to our customers, and JetBlue’s network paired with their award-winning service, are the perfect fit,” said Vasu Raja, Chief Revenue Officer at American Airlines. “Both airlines’ customers value access to more destinations, whether it’s a JetBlue customer who wants more direct access to South America from New York, or an American customer who wants more robust service to Florida. Together, we can give our customers the best of both worlds.”

The biggest reason AA did this deal because they wanted to have JetBlue replace them on a lot of the within-perimeter routes that have been operated by Eagle that were really high cost. I think AA will drop all of these flights and look to have JetBlue replace as much as that as possible. Within perimeter domestic markets from JFK served by Eagle that doesn't currently have JetBlue service from JFK include:
BWI, CVG, CLE, CMH, IND, ORF, PHL, PIT, RIC, DCA
From this list, BWI and PHL are not going to happen because they are too close to have material O&D traffic (which JetBlue needs)
They serve CLE, PIT, RIC and DCA from BOS. I'd rank the likelihood of adding services to those places from JFK in this order DCA, CLE, RIC, PIT. I think all except PIT are likely.

Of the remaining places (CVG, CMH, IND and ORF), it'd really depend on JetBlue's appetite of opening new stations at this point. I would think this partnership should open JetBlue up to adding flights to places where AA has ff but not flights to JFK/BOS. That would include STL, CMH and IND.

The explicitly mentioned adding flights from NY and BOS to strategic markets in east coast, west coast and southeast. So I'm just taking a look at all the places that may have demand from JFK, BOS, EWR and LGA that would be in these region.

BOS - Not too many obvious missing links. Most of their missing markets are in middle of the country.
SNA and ONT seem to be possible adds on the west coast as we discussed earlier.
IAD (if they are willing to re-enter) and ORF seem the most possible on the east coast
SDF, MEM and BHM are the only markets in south east and these are not large markets.

JFK - Nothing really on the west coast outside of SNA since they are very well connected there
I see CLT as an obvious add. Aside from that, IAD, DCA, RIC, ORF, SDF and MEM are all possible. I still don't see these as more important adds as some of the missing links in the midwest.

EWR - AA probably doesn't care much about EWR, so JetBlue is the reason EWR is so prominently featured in this partnership. Their room at EWR just suddenly gotten wider with the possibility that AA will let them use AA's gates there. Also, EWR-PHX made a lot more sense in light of this partnership. Keeping this partnership in mind, I see the most likely adds in these regions are
RDU, BNA, MSY, SNA, BUR, SJC

LGA - One of the most glaring holes out of AA's LGA network is their lack of Florida flights outside of MIA. Vasu also mentioned NY to Florida in his comment. I think expansion of Florida flights and maybe MSY are which much in the cards. I don't know how many slots they will be able to get from AA to do beyond that.


Interesting.

I think what often gets overlooked when talking about AA and JFK is the number of AA flights to Latin American destinations. Everyone harps about how much AA has diluted their TATL service from JFK (which is true), but AA still remains the dominant legacy player on NYC flights to Latin America. Again, when someone says Latin America and AA, and people tend to only think about MIA. And while MIA is obviously AAs Latin America hub, there is still a lot of Latin American flying from JFK too. This should play into Raja’s comments about AA being able to offer B6 pax more international options. Point being, when considering AA long haul from JFK... think South more than East.
 
StinkyPinky
Posts: 62
Joined: Fri Jan 11, 2019 10:03 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Fri Jul 17, 2020 10:54 pm

I'm probably crazy for thinking this... but AA pulling 50 seaters on flights to be replaced by B6 A320s... do you think the pilots, after giving up some scope on codes hares for this deal to happen... maybe also gave up scope on express flights? Could we possibly see B6 starting their own Jetblue Express at much lower costs?
 
vtchaz78
Posts: 16
Joined: Sun Feb 04, 2018 6:01 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Fri Jul 17, 2020 11:05 pm

StinkyPinky wrote:
I'm probably crazy for thinking this... but AA pulling 50 seaters on flights to be replaced by B6 A320s... do you think the pilots, after giving up some scope on codes hares for this deal to happen... maybe also gave up scope on express flights? Could we possibly see B6 starting their own Jetblue Express at much lower costs?


No. Jetblue pilots have some of the strongest Scope protections in their CBA. That would only ever disappear in a bankruptcy. The Pilots will never give it up.
 
Runway28L
Posts: 2099
Joined: Wed Sep 20, 2017 7:35 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Fri Jul 17, 2020 11:08 pm

tphuang wrote:
They serve CLE, PIT, RIC and DCA from BOS. I'd rank the likelihood of adding services to those places from JFK in this order DCA, CLE, RIC, PIT. I think all except PIT are likely.

Out of curiosity - what is your reasoning that B6 shouldn’t jump back into JFK-PIT, especially since you believe they should add JFK-CLE and a lot of people like to compare the Cleveland market to Pittsburgh and vise-versa? Is it simply because they failed on the route prior?

FWIW I really don’t see AA bringing back JFK-PIT, leaving just DL. The fact that Pittsburgh is a YX base yet they still ran the route on a crummy MQ E140 versus IND and CMH is sort of telling.
 
tphuang
Posts: 5325
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Fri Jul 17, 2020 11:57 pm

StinkyPinky wrote:
I'm probably crazy for thinking this... but AA pulling 50 seaters on flights to be replaced by B6 A320s... do you think the pilots, after giving up some scope on codes hares for this deal to happen... maybe also gave up scope on express flights? Could we possibly see B6 starting their own Jetblue Express at much lower costs?

not a chance.

Aside from the scope part of it, it also doesn't make sense economically. They need the low CASM aircraft on these within perimeter route since LGA is the higher yielding airport. Long term, A220 would be the right aircraft for a lot of these routes.

Runway28L wrote:
tphuang wrote:
They serve CLE, PIT, RIC and DCA from BOS. I'd rank the likelihood of adding services to those places from JFK in this order DCA, CLE, RIC, PIT. I think all except PIT are likely.

Out of curiosity - what is your reasoning that B6 shouldn’t jump back into JFK-PIT, especially since you believe they should add JFK-CLE and a lot of people like to compare the Cleveland market to Pittsburgh and vise-versa? Is it simply because they failed on the route prior?

FWIW I really don’t see AA bringing back JFK-PIT, leaving just DL. The fact that Pittsburgh is a YX base yet they still ran the route on a crummy MQ E140 versus IND and CMH is sort of telling.

I think the fact that they failed in it one time is going to give them reservation to try it again. Also, NYC-CLE is a slightly larger market and a little further away from NYC. The shorter the flight, the worse the performance out of JFK normally.

But maybe they will try it again if they think AA's presence there will help this route. We will see. All just guesses at this point.
 
tphuang
Posts: 5325
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Mon Jul 20, 2020 1:06 am

Looks like JetBlue made their final cuts for August and it seems quite steep.

From what I can tell, all the new routes planned to start in July or August are still starting on time, but are trimmed in vast majority of cases. The only exception being ewr srq, which got pushed back due to srq being pushed back in general. I am actually a little surprised, because I was expecting some of the phl stuff to get delayed or canned. Ewr routes mostly because subdaily except for lax, SFO and Las. The three new JFK routes all got trimmed to 4x weekly.

I guess we will find out more about the cuts when oag thread comes out
 
Nicknuzzii
Posts: 1234
Joined: Sat Sep 15, 2018 5:57 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Mon Jul 20, 2020 2:13 am

tphuang wrote:
Looks like JetBlue made their final cuts for August and it seems quite steep.

From what I can tell, all the new routes planned to start in July or August are still starting on time, but are trimmed in vast majority of cases. The only exception being ewr srq, which got pushed back due to srq being pushed back in general. I am actually a little surprised, because I was expecting some of the phl stuff to get delayed or canned. Ewr routes mostly because subdaily except for lax, SFO and Las. The three new JFK routes all got trimmed to 4x weekly.

I guess we will find out more about the cuts when oag thread comes out


For the EWR routes they seem to be standing pretty strong. Below are their updated schedules and in the parenthesis are what I predict for September.

AUS- 4x weekly (Daily)
CHS- 2x weekly (4x weekly)
JAX- 2x weekly (5x weekly)
LAS- Daily (2x daily?)
LAX- 2x daily (3x daily)
PHX- 4x weekly (Daily)
SAN- 3x weekly (Daily)
SFO- Daily (2x daily)
SRQ- 0 (4x weekly)
 
usairways85
Posts: 4163
Joined: Fri Nov 16, 2001 11:59 am

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Mon Jul 20, 2020 4:08 pm

PHL August changes from what I can tell. No routes were canned, but cut pretty significantly.
PHL-SJU - 5x weekly
PHL-MCO - 4x
PHL-TPA -2x
PHL-PBI - 2x
 
Nicknuzzii
Posts: 1234
Joined: Sat Sep 15, 2018 5:57 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Mon Jul 20, 2020 5:04 pm

usairways85 wrote:
PHL August changes from what I can tell. No routes were canned, but cut pretty significantly.
PHL-SJU - 5x weekly
PHL-MCO - 4x
PHL-TPA -2x
PHL-PBI - 2x


RSW is daily too.
 
tphuang
Posts: 5325
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Mon Jul 20, 2020 5:19 pm

Nicknuzzii wrote:
usairways85 wrote:
PHL August changes from what I can tell. No routes were canned, but cut pretty significantly.
PHL-SJU - 5x weekly
PHL-MCO - 4x
PHL-TPA -2x
PHL-PBI - 2x


RSW is daily too.


Honestly, I was surprised that all the PHL routes are starting on time. I was really expecting at least a couple to be pushed back. These are new markets. There is a lot of uncertainty about how much bookings they can get in the last minute.

EWR should go ahead as expected. JetBlue said it in their new release with AA.

Keep in mind that JetBlue's immediate plan is more certain than most carrier out there since they announced they are bringing back another 40 A320s and they are not doing any furlough. Some of their competitors like the ULCCs have found their optimistic scheduling of July has been disasters and may very well furlough in October and return some of the aircraft to lessors. The competitive landscape in PHL may not be as rough as they looked 3 weeks ago.
 
Bigant0408
Posts: 550
Joined: Thu Aug 09, 2018 2:26 am

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Mon Jul 20, 2020 5:26 pm

usairways85 wrote:
PHL August changes from what I can tell. No routes were canned, but cut pretty significantly.
PHL-SJU - 5x weekly
PHL-MCO - 4x
PHL-TPA -2x
PHL-PBI - 2x


I’m not surprised by the cuts but as of right now glad to see they aren’t terminated as of yet. I really would have thought when they first announced these routes that they would have started around October or so IMO.
The man who sleeps on the floor doesn’t fall out of bed
 
CobaltScar
Posts: 752
Joined: Thu Mar 23, 2017 2:30 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Mon Jul 20, 2020 6:32 pm

Why are people thinking september will be better than august? September is the slowest month of the year for air travel.
 
CaptCoolHand
Posts: 96
Joined: Mon Oct 22, 2018 12:24 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Mon Jul 20, 2020 11:16 pm

CobaltScar wrote:
Why are people thinking september will be better than august? September is the slowest month of the year for air travel.



Well ya! Exactly. Slowest month of the year. No one is flying. Looks just like normal.

See! Better.
 
tphuang
Posts: 5325
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Tue Jul 21, 2020 10:43 am

A little more on the LAX move
https://labusinessjournal.com/news/2020 ... b-airport/
- LAWA says gates availability not an issue right now or anytime soon. Allowing JetBlue to add flights/gates. Not a surprise here
- Now they say they want to expand to 75 flights a day and LAWA will make that gate space available. That means at least 8 or 9 gates. Or they get 6 gates and another 4 are shared with AA
- ONT approached them about setting up focus city there, but JetBlue was clearly focused on LAX.

OAG thread not up yet, so i took a litlte look at what has been changed in August
- all the long/thin transcon from JFK are gone
- SDQ up to 7x, STI up to 8x, SJU up to 6x, KIN up to 3x, PAP up to 2x. So the major VFR stuff back to pre-COVID frequencies.
- A lot of the smaller island stuff still showing up as empty.
- LAX cut down to 5x daily (looks like COVID really killing demand here), SFO still at 4x, SAN/SEA/LAS unchanged also
- Huge cuts to Florida all around.
 
wnflyguy
Posts: 1997
Joined: Thu Feb 10, 2011 7:58 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Tue Jul 21, 2020 12:53 pm

Gates for JetBlue at LAX shouldn't be a problem now since it Sounds like Frontier,Spirit,Sun Country and Allegiant are all now moving to the Midfield terminal. Hawaiian was supposed to move but now looks like it's going to stay put.

Flyguy
My Wings are clipped just another Retired Airline person. The Ultimate Armchair out of the loop airline industry geek. Aloha Mr Hand!
 
usflyer msp
Posts: 3856
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Tue Jul 21, 2020 3:46 pm

I don't see the point of operating major NE-Florida markets 2x weekly. Why bother? They should have just delayed the launch.
 
tphuang
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Thu Jul 23, 2020 7:11 pm

Taking a look at how many flights they are running right now for Today after these recent cancellations.
JFK - 90, DL - 38, AA - 23
BOS - 77, DL - 28, AA - 41
EWR - 24, UA - 124
FLL - 40, WN - 42, NK - 53

Taking a look at late August.
JFK - 87
BOS - 83
EWR - 28

So basically running about same number of flights in August as July. Definitely less flight out of JFK/EWR due to quarantine. A lot less capacity to Florida and secondary Cali market. Only the VFR stuff getting a lot of capacity. Maybe they need to add more of those out of EWR.
 
tphuang
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Mon Jul 27, 2020 1:08 pm

https://crankyflier.com/2020/07/27/more ... ts-course/
Since OAG thread hasn't come up yet, just taking a look what crankyflier found.

There is some really interesting stuff here. August schedule will be 5% more than July schedule. September schedule will be 25% more than August schedule. I'm sure there will be more adjustments later. Unless demand comes back, can't imagine running that much more in September over August. Q4 might be when NYC demand comes back a little more.

This part is interesting
In the long run, however, JetBlue is trying out a little growth.

JFK to Albuquerque becomes daily service
JFK to Atlanta goes from 2 daily to 4 daily
JFK to Chicago/O’Hare goes from 2 daily to 4 daily
JFK to Denver goes from 1 daily to 2 daily
JFK to Houston/Intercontinental goes from 1 daily to 2 daily
JFK to Phoenix goes from 1 daily to 2 daily
JFK To Raleigh/Durham goes from 2 daily to 4 daily
JFK to Sacramento goes from sub-daily to having an additional daily flight

I think for ATL/ORD/RDU, they are going to take over some of AA's existing capacity here. I'm guessing AA will drop JFK-ORD/RDU and maybe cut back on LGA-ATL. Going back to 2x on JFK-IAH seems long overdue. DEN was already running 2x throughout the summer even with COVID, so looks like they are going to try extending it year round. PHX also makes sense in light of partnership with AA.

SMF is an interesting one. They were already trying to add that second flight for SMF this past summer, but didn't work. According to PDEW numbers from Q3 2019, it was 400 a day with JetBlue capturing 36% of that. Now with AA partnership, having a daytime eastbound flight and UA probably not keeping EWR-SMF around, they maybe able to fill that second flight.

Also looks like AA whacked its NYC schedule again for August. They also sneaked in some long term LAX cuts. My guess is that they are also planning the same for LGA/JFK. It'd be interesting to see which market JetBlue chooses to enter as AA retreats. JetBlue will need to add some of these short haul markets out of JFK and bump up frequencies on stuff like BOS/BUF if they want to utilize more JFK slots.
 
Nicknuzzii
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Joined: Sat Sep 15, 2018 5:57 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Mon Jul 27, 2020 1:31 pm

When you look at their September schedule it seems most of their new routes will tentatively fly at their original capacity.

EWR will have 35 flights on peak days in September. 15 of them are from the adds.
 
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jfklganyc
Posts: 6001
Joined: Mon Jan 05, 2004 2:31 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Mon Jul 27, 2020 1:51 pm

tphuang wrote:
https://crankyflier.com/2020/07/27/more-schedule-cuts-american-plays-with-fire-and-southwest-corrects-its-course/
Since OAG thread hasn't come up yet, just taking a look what crankyflier found.

There is some really interesting stuff here. August schedule will be 5% more than July schedule. September schedule will be 25% more than August schedule. I'm sure there will be more adjustments later. Unless demand comes back, can't imagine running that much more in September over August. Q4 might be when NYC demand comes back a little more.

This part is interesting
In the long run, however, JetBlue is trying out a little growth.

JFK to Albuquerque becomes daily service
JFK to Atlanta goes from 2 daily to 4 daily
JFK to Chicago/O’Hare goes from 2 daily to 4 daily
JFK to Denver goes from 1 daily to 2 daily
JFK to Houston/Intercontinental goes from 1 daily to 2 daily
JFK to Phoenix goes from 1 daily to 2 daily
JFK To Raleigh/Durham goes from 2 daily to 4 daily
JFK to Sacramento goes from sub-daily to having an additional daily flight

I think for ATL/ORD/RDU, they are going to take over some of AA's existing capacity here. I'm guessing AA will drop JFK-ORD/RDU and maybe cut back on LGA-ATL. Going back to 2x on JFK-IAH seems long overdue. DEN was already running 2x throughout the summer even with COVID, so looks like they are going to try extending it year round. PHX also makes sense in light of partnership with AA.

SMF is an interesting one. They were already trying to add that second flight for SMF this past summer, but didn't work. According to PDEW numbers from Q3 2019, it was 400 a day with JetBlue capturing 36% of that. Now with AA partnership, having a daytime eastbound flight and UA probably not keeping EWR-SMF around, they maybe able to fill that second flight.

Also looks like AA whacked its NYC schedule again for August. They also sneaked in some long term LAX cuts. My guess is that they are also planning the same for LGA/JFK. It'd be interesting to see which market JetBlue chooses to enter as AA retreats. JetBlue will need to add some of these short haul markets out of JFK and bump up frequencies on stuff like BOS/BUF if they want to utilize more JFK slots.



These are safe, non Florida, domestic adds during a pandemic
 
panamair
Posts: 4343
Joined: Fri Oct 12, 2001 2:24 am

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Mon Jul 27, 2020 2:19 pm

tphuang wrote:
Taking a look at how many flights they are running right now for Today after these recent cancellations.
JFK - 90, DL - 38, AA - 23
BOS - 77, DL - 28, AA - 41
EWR - 24, UA - 124
FLL - 40, WN - 42, NK - 53

Taking a look at late August.
JFK - 87
BOS - 83
EWR - 28

So basically running about same number of flights in August as July. Definitely less flight out of JFK/EWR due to quarantine. A lot less capacity to Florida and secondary Cali market. Only the VFR stuff getting a lot of capacity. Maybe they need to add more of those out of EWR.


I don't know if I am missing stuff (probably), but I see B6 has cut JFK down quite a bit in August to the equivalent of about 70-71 flights a day? Almost all domestic cuts of course. DL has also reduced JFK in August but not as much, and they are around 75 flights a day.
 
tphuang
Posts: 5325
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Mon Jul 27, 2020 2:42 pm

panamair wrote:
tphuang wrote:
Taking a look at how many flights they are running right now for Today after these recent cancellations.
JFK - 90, DL - 38, AA - 23
BOS - 77, DL - 28, AA - 41
EWR - 24, UA - 124
FLL - 40, WN - 42, NK - 53

Taking a look at late August.
JFK - 87
BOS - 83
EWR - 28

So basically running about same number of flights in August as July. Definitely less flight out of JFK/EWR due to quarantine. A lot less capacity to Florida and secondary Cali market. Only the VFR stuff getting a lot of capacity. Maybe they need to add more of those out of EWR.


I don't know if I am missing stuff (probably), but I see B6 has cut JFK down quite a bit in August to the equivalent of about 70-71 flights a day? Almost all domestic cuts of course. DL has also reduced JFK in August but not as much, and they are around 75 flights a day.


Thanks for making me count through things again. I still see 82 flights a day on Aug 23 even after these reductions. So a couple of reductions, but most of those the reductions already went in a couple of weeks ago.
 
panamair
Posts: 4343
Joined: Fri Oct 12, 2001 2:24 am

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Mon Jul 27, 2020 2:53 pm

tphuang wrote:
panamair wrote:
tphuang wrote:
Taking a look at how many flights they are running right now for Today after these recent cancellations.
JFK - 90, DL - 38, AA - 23
BOS - 77, DL - 28, AA - 41
EWR - 24, UA - 124
FLL - 40, WN - 42, NK - 53

Taking a look at late August.
JFK - 87
BOS - 83
EWR - 28

So basically running about same number of flights in August as July. Definitely less flight out of JFK/EWR due to quarantine. A lot less capacity to Florida and secondary Cali market. Only the VFR stuff getting a lot of capacity. Maybe they need to add more of those out of EWR.


I don't know if I am missing stuff (probably), but I see B6 has cut JFK down quite a bit in August to the equivalent of about 70-71 flights a day? Almost all domestic cuts of course. DL has also reduced JFK in August but not as much, and they are around 75 flights a day.


Thanks for making me count through things again. I still see 82 flights a day on Aug 23 even after these reductions. So a couple of reductions, but most of those the reductions already went in a couple of weeks ago.


I think some of the difference comes from my counting by weekly flights as there are quite a few domestic flights that are running only 4x weekly (e.g., JFK-RDU/MSP/DTW/JAX/MSY/DFW/SYR/IAH), some at 3x weekly (JFK-PHX/PDX/BTV), and some at 5x weekly (JFK-TPA/SAV/SLC/SEA)
 
User avatar
jfklganyc
Posts: 6001
Joined: Mon Jan 05, 2004 2:31 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Mon Jul 27, 2020 2:59 pm

panamair wrote:
tphuang wrote:
panamair wrote:

I don't know if I am missing stuff (probably), but I see B6 has cut JFK down quite a bit in August to the equivalent of about 70-71 flights a day? Almost all domestic cuts of course. DL has also reduced JFK in August but not as much, and they are around 75 flights a day.


Thanks for making me count through things again. I still see 82 flights a day on Aug 23 even after these reductions. So a couple of reductions, but most of those the reductions already went in a couple of weeks ago.


I think some of the difference comes from my counting by weekly flights as there are quite a few domestic flights that are running only 4x weekly (e.g., JFK-RDU/MSP/DTW/JAX/MSY/DFW/SYR/IAH), some at 3x weekly (JFK-PHX/PDX/BTV), and some at 5x weekly (JFK-TPA/SAV/SLC/SEA)



Even at full schedule, JetBlue day of the week fluctuations are large compared to other airlines.
 
Nicknuzzii
Posts: 1234
Joined: Sat Sep 15, 2018 5:57 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Mon Jul 27, 2020 7:28 pm

Interesting to see a JetBlue aircraft sitting at the A2 concourse at EWR. Anyone know what’s up with this?

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