tphuang wrote:Taking a look at what I think their west coast strategy can look like a few years. Looking strictly at Cali airport for now.
First the secondary airports:
BUR - 2x A321N to JFK does really well and 1x A320 to BOS does poorly. I would assume those stay as is and they will add a flight to EWR since there is a lot of demand to NY/NJ area they can capture.
ONT - 1x A320 to JFK did pretty well last summer and I think they will go permanently to 2x JFK and possibly 1x EWR going forward.
SNA - I assume they will get 3 slots here at some point and run 1 A220 flight each to JFK/BOS/EWR.
SJC - 1x to JFK will stick around as is. 1 to 2x to BOS depending on time of year. 1x EWR if AS leaves the market.
SAN - 3x to JFK, 4 to 5x BOS, 2x to EWR, 1x FLL and 1x MCO. Not really sure the mint distribution here.
LAX - This is what I think a 70 flight schedule could look like.
17x to JFK/EWR, 6x BOS, 6x FLL, 3x IAD, 2x HNL on mint (33 flights in total)
A320 or A321 flight to BUF/MCO/PIT/CLE/BDL
A220 flight to HPN/PBI/JAX/CHS
A320 or A321s into GUA/SAL/SJO/LIR/PVR/SJD
7x A220 to SFO, 4x A321 to LAS, 3x A220 to SEA, 3x A220 to SMF, 3x A220 to PHX, 2x A320 to SLC, 1x A321 RNO + some seasonal 1x to BZN/HDN or similar type of airports.
Using what I have here, they probably need an A220 base in LAX. The number of flights to SFO/SEA/PHX/DEN is based on the lowest number I see on these routes for a big 4 carrier. For example, WN has 7x to SFO and AA has 8x. AA is 4x to SEA and UA is 2x. UA is 3x to SMF and AA is 4x. UA is 4x to PHX. A220 is basically the most economic aircraft they can run on these business markets that require some level of frequency. A321 to LAS/RNO is to lower their cost on trunk leisure routes.
This would allow them to somewhat adequately serve 6 out of top 10 markets out of LA and 12 out of top 17. That's not terrible. It would also give more connection options for their East coast customers to come to various destinations in west coast.
SFO - I think they will need to run a schedule like this
11x to JFK/EWR, 7x BOS, 4x FLL, 1x MCO for transcon stuff
7x A220 to LAX, 2x A321 to LAS
Currently, they have at most 3 gates at SFO. They should look to have at least 4 gates at SFO.
I agree that B6 will get new flights in on the west coast, but some of this is comical. I think you are way too bullish out of the gate on some of these EWR adds... way too bullish. We are going to have to see how some of these flights do after they start- the proof will be in the pudding. If things go really well, then I would agree more flights will follow. But at this point, I just don't see EWR being this new unicorn base you are painting it out to be. You are assuming all of this as if UA will have nothing to say about it. You can argue as much as you want that the legacies are not in an ideal situation at this exact moment to retaliate, but if you think UA is just going to stand by while B6 adds all of these new flights in UA's NYC fortress hub, you are dreaming. Also, B6 LAX-IAD....? Not sure where you're thought process is coming from. No way B6 is adding an unserved city from LAX (huge start-up costs), especially after B6 pulled flights from BOS and FLL to IAD, two significantly larger and more important focus cities than LAX- no way LAX is going to have a flight there when there aren't flights to BOS or FLL. Plus, it's a UA premium TCON and hub to hub route. No way.