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kavok
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Fri Jul 17, 2020 8:27 pm

tphuang wrote:
I've been trying to figure out implications for new routes based on their released statements.
http://otp.investis.com/clients/us/jetb ... wsid=69683

This part caught my eyes
"JetBlue will also accelerate its growth in key cities, bringing its award-winning service to more customers. JetBlue will grow in greater New York City, adding flights at LaGuardia (LGA) and Newark (EWR), while also increasing its presence at JFK for seamless connections to American’s expanded international network. "
"As New York’s Hometown Airline®, JetBlue plans to increase flying out of New York’s three major airports, bringing its award-winning experience to more customers. Its growth at JFK will be aimed at offering even more connection opportunities to American’s growing international network of destinations. From both New York and Boston, JetBlue plans to enhance service to strategic markets, including those on the East Coast, West Coast, and in the Southeast. This will further build on JetBlue’s recently announced growth between EWR and nine markets, including Mint service to LAX and SFO. "

and this part is interesting also
“Leisure travel is important to our customers, and JetBlue’s network paired with their award-winning service, are the perfect fit,” said Vasu Raja, Chief Revenue Officer at American Airlines. “Both airlines’ customers value access to more destinations, whether it’s a JetBlue customer who wants more direct access to South America from New York, or an American customer who wants more robust service to Florida. Together, we can give our customers the best of both worlds.”

The biggest reason AA did this deal because they wanted to have JetBlue replace them on a lot of the within-perimeter routes that have been operated by Eagle that were really high cost. I think AA will drop all of these flights and look to have JetBlue replace as much as that as possible. Within perimeter domestic markets from JFK served by Eagle that doesn't currently have JetBlue service from JFK include:
BWI, CVG, CLE, CMH, IND, ORF, PHL, PIT, RIC, DCA
From this list, BWI and PHL are not going to happen because they are too close to have material O&D traffic (which JetBlue needs)
They serve CLE, PIT, RIC and DCA from BOS. I'd rank the likelihood of adding services to those places from JFK in this order DCA, CLE, RIC, PIT. I think all except PIT are likely.

Of the remaining places (CVG, CMH, IND and ORF), it'd really depend on JetBlue's appetite of opening new stations at this point. I would think this partnership should open JetBlue up to adding flights to places where AA has ff but not flights to JFK/BOS. That would include STL, CMH and IND.

The explicitly mentioned adding flights from NY and BOS to strategic markets in east coast, west coast and southeast. So I'm just taking a look at all the places that may have demand from JFK, BOS, EWR and LGA that would be in these region.

BOS - Not too many obvious missing links. Most of their missing markets are in middle of the country.
SNA and ONT seem to be possible adds on the west coast as we discussed earlier.
IAD (if they are willing to re-enter) and ORF seem the most possible on the east coast
SDF, MEM and BHM are the only markets in south east and these are not large markets.

JFK - Nothing really on the west coast outside of SNA since they are very well connected there
I see CLT as an obvious add. Aside from that, IAD, DCA, RIC, ORF, SDF and MEM are all possible. I still don't see these as more important adds as some of the missing links in the midwest.

EWR - AA probably doesn't care much about EWR, so JetBlue is the reason EWR is so prominently featured in this partnership. Their room at EWR just suddenly gotten wider with the possibility that AA will let them use AA's gates there. Also, EWR-PHX made a lot more sense in light of this partnership. Keeping this partnership in mind, I see the most likely adds in these regions are
RDU, BNA, MSY, SNA, BUR, SJC

LGA - One of the most glaring holes out of AA's LGA network is their lack of Florida flights outside of MIA. Vasu also mentioned NY to Florida in his comment. I think expansion of Florida flights and maybe MSY are which much in the cards. I don't know how many slots they will be able to get from AA to do beyond that.


Interesting.

I think what often gets overlooked when talking about AA and JFK is the number of AA flights to Latin American destinations. Everyone harps about how much AA has diluted their TATL service from JFK (which is true), but AA still remains the dominant legacy player on NYC flights to Latin America. Again, when someone says Latin America and AA, and people tend to only think about MIA. And while MIA is obviously AAs Latin America hub, there is still a lot of Latin American flying from JFK too. This should play into Raja’s comments about AA being able to offer B6 pax more international options. Point being, when considering AA long haul from JFK... think South more than East.
 
StinkyPinky
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Fri Jul 17, 2020 10:54 pm

I'm probably crazy for thinking this... but AA pulling 50 seaters on flights to be replaced by B6 A320s... do you think the pilots, after giving up some scope on codes hares for this deal to happen... maybe also gave up scope on express flights? Could we possibly see B6 starting their own Jetblue Express at much lower costs?
 
vtchaz78
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Fri Jul 17, 2020 11:05 pm

StinkyPinky wrote:
I'm probably crazy for thinking this... but AA pulling 50 seaters on flights to be replaced by B6 A320s... do you think the pilots, after giving up some scope on codes hares for this deal to happen... maybe also gave up scope on express flights? Could we possibly see B6 starting their own Jetblue Express at much lower costs?


No. Jetblue pilots have some of the strongest Scope protections in their CBA. That would only ever disappear in a bankruptcy. The Pilots will never give it up.
 
Runway28L
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Fri Jul 17, 2020 11:08 pm

tphuang wrote:
They serve CLE, PIT, RIC and DCA from BOS. I'd rank the likelihood of adding services to those places from JFK in this order DCA, CLE, RIC, PIT. I think all except PIT are likely.

Out of curiosity - what is your reasoning that B6 shouldn’t jump back into JFK-PIT, especially since you believe they should add JFK-CLE and a lot of people like to compare the Cleveland market to Pittsburgh and vise-versa? Is it simply because they failed on the route prior?

FWIW I really don’t see AA bringing back JFK-PIT, leaving just DL. The fact that Pittsburgh is a YX base yet they still ran the route on a crummy MQ E140 versus IND and CMH is sort of telling.
 
tphuang
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Fri Jul 17, 2020 11:57 pm

StinkyPinky wrote:
I'm probably crazy for thinking this... but AA pulling 50 seaters on flights to be replaced by B6 A320s... do you think the pilots, after giving up some scope on codes hares for this deal to happen... maybe also gave up scope on express flights? Could we possibly see B6 starting their own Jetblue Express at much lower costs?

not a chance.

Aside from the scope part of it, it also doesn't make sense economically. They need the low CASM aircraft on these within perimeter route since LGA is the higher yielding airport. Long term, A220 would be the right aircraft for a lot of these routes.

Runway28L wrote:
tphuang wrote:
They serve CLE, PIT, RIC and DCA from BOS. I'd rank the likelihood of adding services to those places from JFK in this order DCA, CLE, RIC, PIT. I think all except PIT are likely.

Out of curiosity - what is your reasoning that B6 shouldn’t jump back into JFK-PIT, especially since you believe they should add JFK-CLE and a lot of people like to compare the Cleveland market to Pittsburgh and vise-versa? Is it simply because they failed on the route prior?

FWIW I really don’t see AA bringing back JFK-PIT, leaving just DL. The fact that Pittsburgh is a YX base yet they still ran the route on a crummy MQ E140 versus IND and CMH is sort of telling.

I think the fact that they failed in it one time is going to give them reservation to try it again. Also, NYC-CLE is a slightly larger market and a little further away from NYC. The shorter the flight, the worse the performance out of JFK normally.

But maybe they will try it again if they think AA's presence there will help this route. We will see. All just guesses at this point.
 
tphuang
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Mon Jul 20, 2020 1:06 am

Looks like JetBlue made their final cuts for August and it seems quite steep.

From what I can tell, all the new routes planned to start in July or August are still starting on time, but are trimmed in vast majority of cases. The only exception being ewr srq, which got pushed back due to srq being pushed back in general. I am actually a little surprised, because I was expecting some of the phl stuff to get delayed or canned. Ewr routes mostly because subdaily except for lax, SFO and Las. The three new JFK routes all got trimmed to 4x weekly.

I guess we will find out more about the cuts when oag thread comes out
 
Nicknuzzii
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Mon Jul 20, 2020 2:13 am

tphuang wrote:
Looks like JetBlue made their final cuts for August and it seems quite steep.

From what I can tell, all the new routes planned to start in July or August are still starting on time, but are trimmed in vast majority of cases. The only exception being ewr srq, which got pushed back due to srq being pushed back in general. I am actually a little surprised, because I was expecting some of the phl stuff to get delayed or canned. Ewr routes mostly because subdaily except for lax, SFO and Las. The three new JFK routes all got trimmed to 4x weekly.

I guess we will find out more about the cuts when oag thread comes out


For the EWR routes they seem to be standing pretty strong. Below are their updated schedules and in the parenthesis are what I predict for September.

AUS- 4x weekly (Daily)
CHS- 2x weekly (4x weekly)
JAX- 2x weekly (5x weekly)
LAS- Daily (2x daily?)
LAX- 2x daily (3x daily)
PHX- 4x weekly (Daily)
SAN- 3x weekly (Daily)
SFO- Daily (2x daily)
SRQ- 0 (4x weekly)
 
usairways85
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Mon Jul 20, 2020 4:08 pm

PHL August changes from what I can tell. No routes were canned, but cut pretty significantly.
PHL-SJU - 5x weekly
PHL-MCO - 4x
PHL-TPA -2x
PHL-PBI - 2x
 
Nicknuzzii
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Mon Jul 20, 2020 5:04 pm

usairways85 wrote:
PHL August changes from what I can tell. No routes were canned, but cut pretty significantly.
PHL-SJU - 5x weekly
PHL-MCO - 4x
PHL-TPA -2x
PHL-PBI - 2x


RSW is daily too.
 
tphuang
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Mon Jul 20, 2020 5:19 pm

Nicknuzzii wrote:
usairways85 wrote:
PHL August changes from what I can tell. No routes were canned, but cut pretty significantly.
PHL-SJU - 5x weekly
PHL-MCO - 4x
PHL-TPA -2x
PHL-PBI - 2x


RSW is daily too.


Honestly, I was surprised that all the PHL routes are starting on time. I was really expecting at least a couple to be pushed back. These are new markets. There is a lot of uncertainty about how much bookings they can get in the last minute.

EWR should go ahead as expected. JetBlue said it in their new release with AA.

Keep in mind that JetBlue's immediate plan is more certain than most carrier out there since they announced they are bringing back another 40 A320s and they are not doing any furlough. Some of their competitors like the ULCCs have found their optimistic scheduling of July has been disasters and may very well furlough in October and return some of the aircraft to lessors. The competitive landscape in PHL may not be as rough as they looked 3 weeks ago.
 
Bigant0408
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Mon Jul 20, 2020 5:26 pm

usairways85 wrote:
PHL August changes from what I can tell. No routes were canned, but cut pretty significantly.
PHL-SJU - 5x weekly
PHL-MCO - 4x
PHL-TPA -2x
PHL-PBI - 2x


I’m not surprised by the cuts but as of right now glad to see they aren’t terminated as of yet. I really would have thought when they first announced these routes that they would have started around October or so IMO.
The man who sleeps on the floor doesn’t fall out of bed
 
CobaltScar
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Mon Jul 20, 2020 6:32 pm

Why are people thinking september will be better than august? September is the slowest month of the year for air travel.
 
CaptCoolHand
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Mon Jul 20, 2020 11:16 pm

CobaltScar wrote:
Why are people thinking september will be better than august? September is the slowest month of the year for air travel.



Well ya! Exactly. Slowest month of the year. No one is flying. Looks just like normal.

See! Better.
 
tphuang
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Tue Jul 21, 2020 10:43 am

A little more on the LAX move
https://labusinessjournal.com/news/2020 ... b-airport/
- LAWA says gates availability not an issue right now or anytime soon. Allowing JetBlue to add flights/gates. Not a surprise here
- Now they say they want to expand to 75 flights a day and LAWA will make that gate space available. That means at least 8 or 9 gates. Or they get 6 gates and another 4 are shared with AA
- ONT approached them about setting up focus city there, but JetBlue was clearly focused on LAX.

OAG thread not up yet, so i took a litlte look at what has been changed in August
- all the long/thin transcon from JFK are gone
- SDQ up to 7x, STI up to 8x, SJU up to 6x, KIN up to 3x, PAP up to 2x. So the major VFR stuff back to pre-COVID frequencies.
- A lot of the smaller island stuff still showing up as empty.
- LAX cut down to 5x daily (looks like COVID really killing demand here), SFO still at 4x, SAN/SEA/LAS unchanged also
- Huge cuts to Florida all around.
 
wnflyguy
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Tue Jul 21, 2020 12:53 pm

Gates for JetBlue at LAX shouldn't be a problem now since it Sounds like Frontier,Spirit,Sun Country and Allegiant are all now moving to the Midfield terminal. Hawaiian was supposed to move but now looks like it's going to stay put.

Flyguy
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usflyer msp
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Tue Jul 21, 2020 3:46 pm

I don't see the point of operating major NE-Florida markets 2x weekly. Why bother? They should have just delayed the launch.
 
tphuang
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Thu Jul 23, 2020 7:11 pm

Taking a look at how many flights they are running right now for Today after these recent cancellations.
JFK - 90, DL - 38, AA - 23
BOS - 77, DL - 28, AA - 41
EWR - 24, UA - 124
FLL - 40, WN - 42, NK - 53

Taking a look at late August.
JFK - 87
BOS - 83
EWR - 28

So basically running about same number of flights in August as July. Definitely less flight out of JFK/EWR due to quarantine. A lot less capacity to Florida and secondary Cali market. Only the VFR stuff getting a lot of capacity. Maybe they need to add more of those out of EWR.
 
tphuang
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Mon Jul 27, 2020 1:08 pm

https://crankyflier.com/2020/07/27/more ... ts-course/
Since OAG thread hasn't come up yet, just taking a look what crankyflier found.

There is some really interesting stuff here. August schedule will be 5% more than July schedule. September schedule will be 25% more than August schedule. I'm sure there will be more adjustments later. Unless demand comes back, can't imagine running that much more in September over August. Q4 might be when NYC demand comes back a little more.

This part is interesting
In the long run, however, JetBlue is trying out a little growth.

JFK to Albuquerque becomes daily service
JFK to Atlanta goes from 2 daily to 4 daily
JFK to Chicago/O’Hare goes from 2 daily to 4 daily
JFK to Denver goes from 1 daily to 2 daily
JFK to Houston/Intercontinental goes from 1 daily to 2 daily
JFK to Phoenix goes from 1 daily to 2 daily
JFK To Raleigh/Durham goes from 2 daily to 4 daily
JFK to Sacramento goes from sub-daily to having an additional daily flight

I think for ATL/ORD/RDU, they are going to take over some of AA's existing capacity here. I'm guessing AA will drop JFK-ORD/RDU and maybe cut back on LGA-ATL. Going back to 2x on JFK-IAH seems long overdue. DEN was already running 2x throughout the summer even with COVID, so looks like they are going to try extending it year round. PHX also makes sense in light of partnership with AA.

SMF is an interesting one. They were already trying to add that second flight for SMF this past summer, but didn't work. According to PDEW numbers from Q3 2019, it was 400 a day with JetBlue capturing 36% of that. Now with AA partnership, having a daytime eastbound flight and UA probably not keeping EWR-SMF around, they maybe able to fill that second flight.

Also looks like AA whacked its NYC schedule again for August. They also sneaked in some long term LAX cuts. My guess is that they are also planning the same for LGA/JFK. It'd be interesting to see which market JetBlue chooses to enter as AA retreats. JetBlue will need to add some of these short haul markets out of JFK and bump up frequencies on stuff like BOS/BUF if they want to utilize more JFK slots.
 
Nicknuzzii
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Mon Jul 27, 2020 1:31 pm

When you look at their September schedule it seems most of their new routes will tentatively fly at their original capacity.

EWR will have 35 flights on peak days in September. 15 of them are from the adds.
 
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jfklganyc
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Mon Jul 27, 2020 1:51 pm

tphuang wrote:
https://crankyflier.com/2020/07/27/more-schedule-cuts-american-plays-with-fire-and-southwest-corrects-its-course/
Since OAG thread hasn't come up yet, just taking a look what crankyflier found.

There is some really interesting stuff here. August schedule will be 5% more than July schedule. September schedule will be 25% more than August schedule. I'm sure there will be more adjustments later. Unless demand comes back, can't imagine running that much more in September over August. Q4 might be when NYC demand comes back a little more.

This part is interesting
In the long run, however, JetBlue is trying out a little growth.

JFK to Albuquerque becomes daily service
JFK to Atlanta goes from 2 daily to 4 daily
JFK to Chicago/O’Hare goes from 2 daily to 4 daily
JFK to Denver goes from 1 daily to 2 daily
JFK to Houston/Intercontinental goes from 1 daily to 2 daily
JFK to Phoenix goes from 1 daily to 2 daily
JFK To Raleigh/Durham goes from 2 daily to 4 daily
JFK to Sacramento goes from sub-daily to having an additional daily flight

I think for ATL/ORD/RDU, they are going to take over some of AA's existing capacity here. I'm guessing AA will drop JFK-ORD/RDU and maybe cut back on LGA-ATL. Going back to 2x on JFK-IAH seems long overdue. DEN was already running 2x throughout the summer even with COVID, so looks like they are going to try extending it year round. PHX also makes sense in light of partnership with AA.

SMF is an interesting one. They were already trying to add that second flight for SMF this past summer, but didn't work. According to PDEW numbers from Q3 2019, it was 400 a day with JetBlue capturing 36% of that. Now with AA partnership, having a daytime eastbound flight and UA probably not keeping EWR-SMF around, they maybe able to fill that second flight.

Also looks like AA whacked its NYC schedule again for August. They also sneaked in some long term LAX cuts. My guess is that they are also planning the same for LGA/JFK. It'd be interesting to see which market JetBlue chooses to enter as AA retreats. JetBlue will need to add some of these short haul markets out of JFK and bump up frequencies on stuff like BOS/BUF if they want to utilize more JFK slots.



These are safe, non Florida, domestic adds during a pandemic
 
panamair
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Mon Jul 27, 2020 2:19 pm

tphuang wrote:
Taking a look at how many flights they are running right now for Today after these recent cancellations.
JFK - 90, DL - 38, AA - 23
BOS - 77, DL - 28, AA - 41
EWR - 24, UA - 124
FLL - 40, WN - 42, NK - 53

Taking a look at late August.
JFK - 87
BOS - 83
EWR - 28

So basically running about same number of flights in August as July. Definitely less flight out of JFK/EWR due to quarantine. A lot less capacity to Florida and secondary Cali market. Only the VFR stuff getting a lot of capacity. Maybe they need to add more of those out of EWR.


I don't know if I am missing stuff (probably), but I see B6 has cut JFK down quite a bit in August to the equivalent of about 70-71 flights a day? Almost all domestic cuts of course. DL has also reduced JFK in August but not as much, and they are around 75 flights a day.
 
tphuang
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Mon Jul 27, 2020 2:42 pm

panamair wrote:
tphuang wrote:
Taking a look at how many flights they are running right now for Today after these recent cancellations.
JFK - 90, DL - 38, AA - 23
BOS - 77, DL - 28, AA - 41
EWR - 24, UA - 124
FLL - 40, WN - 42, NK - 53

Taking a look at late August.
JFK - 87
BOS - 83
EWR - 28

So basically running about same number of flights in August as July. Definitely less flight out of JFK/EWR due to quarantine. A lot less capacity to Florida and secondary Cali market. Only the VFR stuff getting a lot of capacity. Maybe they need to add more of those out of EWR.


I don't know if I am missing stuff (probably), but I see B6 has cut JFK down quite a bit in August to the equivalent of about 70-71 flights a day? Almost all domestic cuts of course. DL has also reduced JFK in August but not as much, and they are around 75 flights a day.


Thanks for making me count through things again. I still see 82 flights a day on Aug 23 even after these reductions. So a couple of reductions, but most of those the reductions already went in a couple of weeks ago.
 
panamair
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Mon Jul 27, 2020 2:53 pm

tphuang wrote:
panamair wrote:
tphuang wrote:
Taking a look at how many flights they are running right now for Today after these recent cancellations.
JFK - 90, DL - 38, AA - 23
BOS - 77, DL - 28, AA - 41
EWR - 24, UA - 124
FLL - 40, WN - 42, NK - 53

Taking a look at late August.
JFK - 87
BOS - 83
EWR - 28

So basically running about same number of flights in August as July. Definitely less flight out of JFK/EWR due to quarantine. A lot less capacity to Florida and secondary Cali market. Only the VFR stuff getting a lot of capacity. Maybe they need to add more of those out of EWR.


I don't know if I am missing stuff (probably), but I see B6 has cut JFK down quite a bit in August to the equivalent of about 70-71 flights a day? Almost all domestic cuts of course. DL has also reduced JFK in August but not as much, and they are around 75 flights a day.


Thanks for making me count through things again. I still see 82 flights a day on Aug 23 even after these reductions. So a couple of reductions, but most of those the reductions already went in a couple of weeks ago.


I think some of the difference comes from my counting by weekly flights as there are quite a few domestic flights that are running only 4x weekly (e.g., JFK-RDU/MSP/DTW/JAX/MSY/DFW/SYR/IAH), some at 3x weekly (JFK-PHX/PDX/BTV), and some at 5x weekly (JFK-TPA/SAV/SLC/SEA)
 
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jfklganyc
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Mon Jul 27, 2020 2:59 pm

panamair wrote:
tphuang wrote:
panamair wrote:

I don't know if I am missing stuff (probably), but I see B6 has cut JFK down quite a bit in August to the equivalent of about 70-71 flights a day? Almost all domestic cuts of course. DL has also reduced JFK in August but not as much, and they are around 75 flights a day.


Thanks for making me count through things again. I still see 82 flights a day on Aug 23 even after these reductions. So a couple of reductions, but most of those the reductions already went in a couple of weeks ago.


I think some of the difference comes from my counting by weekly flights as there are quite a few domestic flights that are running only 4x weekly (e.g., JFK-RDU/MSP/DTW/JAX/MSY/DFW/SYR/IAH), some at 3x weekly (JFK-PHX/PDX/BTV), and some at 5x weekly (JFK-TPA/SAV/SLC/SEA)



Even at full schedule, JetBlue day of the week fluctuations are large compared to other airlines.
 
Nicknuzzii
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Mon Jul 27, 2020 7:28 pm

Interesting to see a JetBlue aircraft sitting at the A2 concourse at EWR. Anyone know what’s up with this?
 
FARmd90
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Mon Jul 27, 2020 10:36 pm

Nicknuzzii wrote:
Interesting to see a JetBlue aircraft sitting at the A2 concourse at EWR. Anyone know what’s up with this?


If it was tail 606 sitting at the UAX banjo gates (assuming that’s A2) it was there for maintenance. It was suppose to be my plane to MCO today but it was swapped out. Looked like they were working on the left hand engine.
 
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aemoreira1981
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Mon Jul 27, 2020 11:45 pm

I have to wonder if JFK and LGA might see the A220-300 sooner than later, especially on routes out of AA New York that may alternate between mainline and Eagle. DFW could be intriguing, as that could qualify as part of the Northeast codeshare with AA...where B6 could take over some frequencies and fly either the BCS3 or A21N from LGA there...more so as a shot at DL with flying the newest equipment there to take business away from DL in the NYC market. (Currently, New York to Texas on DL from LGA is primarily on the BCS1.) This would allow AA to better protect its home base of DFW and also its MIA and ORD hubs (could AA perhaps help B6 get another gate at ORD?), with AA realizing that B6 could deliver better short-haul economics...AA would be codesharing on some of these routes.
 
Wingtips56
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Tue Jul 28, 2020 12:00 am

When will B6 have a big enough fleet of A220s on property to mount a significant schedule with them?
Worked for WestAir, Apollo Airways, Desert Pacific, Western, AirCal and American Airlines (Retired). Flight Memory: 181 airports, 92 airlines, 78 a/c types, 403 routes, 58 countries (by air), 6 continents. 1,119,414 passenger miles.

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speedbird2263
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Tue Jul 28, 2020 12:39 am

Wingtips56 wrote:
When will B6 have a big enough fleet of A220s on property to mount a significant schedule with them?


The delivery schedule so far shows 1 at the end of 2020 with ~8 in 2021.
Straight'n Up 'N Fly Right Son
 
CaptCoolHand
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Tue Jul 28, 2020 12:40 am

Wingtips56 wrote:
When will B6 have a big enough fleet of A220s on property to mount a significant schedule with them?


Probably not for 24-36 months.
 
maverick4002
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Tue Jul 28, 2020 12:53 am

aemoreira1981 wrote:
I have to wonder if JFK and LGA might see the A220-300 sooner than later, especially on routes out of AA New York that may alternate between mainline and Eagle. DFW could be intriguing, as that could qualify as part of the Northeast codeshare with AA...where B6 could take over some frequencies and fly either the BCS3 or A21N from LGA there...more so as a shot at DL with flying the newest equipment there to take business away from DL in the NYC market. (Currently, New York to Texas on DL from LGA is primarily on the BCS1.) This would allow AA to better protect its home base of DFW and also its MIA and ORD hubs (could AA perhaps help B6 get another gate at ORD?), with AA realizing that B6 could deliver better short-haul economics...AA would be codesharing on some of these routes.


I flew on a brand new DL BCS 1? in late Feb LGA - DAL. It was delivered a few days before and man, that was a nice ride! really cool plane with a big ass window in the bathroom
 
HNLSLCPDX
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Tue Jul 28, 2020 3:10 am

I think JetBlue needs to make an aggressive expansion into SLC. They should seriously consider adding SAN, AUS, TPA, LAS, ATL, SJD, PVR, and SFO. They already serve JFK, BOS, LAX (beginning October), MCO, and FLL. SLC could offer some connecting options and with the new terminal and growing economy of Salt Lake and the surrounding area there is potential to grow and build and capture a larger frequent flyer base.

I think JetBlue could manage DL’s push back and could make it work and potentially have SLC as a focus city. Definitely would help their presence out west.
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Tue Jul 28, 2020 11:57 am

HNLSLCPDX wrote:
I think JetBlue needs to make an aggressive expansion into SLC. They should seriously consider adding SAN, AUS, TPA, LAS, ATL, SJD, PVR, and SFO. They already serve JFK, BOS, LAX (beginning October), MCO, and FLL. SLC could offer some connecting options and with the new terminal and growing economy of Salt Lake and the surrounding area there is potential to grow and build and capture a larger frequent flyer base.

I think JetBlue could manage DL’s push back and could make it work and potentially have SLC as a focus city. Definitely would help their presence out west.


There is absolutely no market for B6 to try ATL-SLC, DL is flying that 11x daily today with B757s+B767s & it is a hub-hub route for them.
Status for 2019/2020: AAdvantage Platinum, Delta Gold, Southwest A-List
 
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BA744PHX
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Tue Jul 28, 2020 1:26 pm

HNLSLCPDX wrote:
I think JetBlue needs to make an aggressive expansion into SLC. They should seriously consider adding SAN, AUS, TPA, LAS, ATL, SJD, PVR, and SFO. They already serve JFK, BOS, LAX (beginning October), MCO, and FLL. SLC could offer some connecting options and with the new terminal and growing economy of Salt Lake and the surrounding area there is potential to grow and build and capture a larger frequent flyer base.

I think JetBlue could manage DL’s push back and could make it work and potentially have SLC as a focus city. Definitely would help their presence out west.

Expansion for what reason? SLC is not a large O&D Market, not much to share with DL dominating. If B6 were to expand out West, they would have a better chance at LAS with a massive O&D.
 
Nicknuzzii
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Tue Jul 28, 2020 2:55 pm

Per the earnings call the plan is only to build EWR up to 60 flights a day.
 
Dieuwer
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Tue Jul 28, 2020 3:02 pm

JetBlue needs to consider dumping Barclays and get a real credit card issuer on board. Barclays' customer service is absolutely horrible. I was so furious, I closed my Plus card.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Tue Jul 28, 2020 3:30 pm

Discuss the topic, not other users.

Lightsaber
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tphuang
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Tue Jul 28, 2020 5:11 pm

Notes from OAG thread and Q2 earnings
- All the JFK increased discussed earlier here showed up on the OAG thread. It's about 9 or 10 additional flights depending on time of year once we are recovered. I wonder if they are getting an additional gate at ORD with the recent ORD adds.
- Cash burn is still projected to be $7 to 9 million/day in Q3. Not great.
- Didn't feel like an airline really concerned about cash situation. They were more concerned with bringing down fixed costs and increasing revenue coming out of this.
- Evaded question about how much smaller they will be going forward. Said they will be operating about 2/3 schedule in Q4 and want to remain flexible to changes in demand
- A lot of optimism with the AA partnership. talked about easier entrance into new markets. Talked about blanket codesharing and earn/burn for ff on other airlines flights
- Talked a lot about combined network in NYC/BOS and other initiatives making trueblue program more valuable (again, this deal is more about increased network relevance than connectivity)
- Overall, seems like they are very focused on improving their position in northeast coming out of this.
- Still aiming for 140 flights /day in FLL with improved connectivity. Really interesting they specifically pointed out growing FLL as an important priority.
- Thanked LAWA repeatedly for allowing them to expand in LAX.

aemoreira1981 wrote:
I have to wonder if JFK and LGA might see the A220-300 sooner than later, especially on routes out of AA New York that may alternate between mainline and Eagle. DFW could be intriguing, as that could qualify as part of the Northeast codeshare with AA...where B6 could take over some frequencies and fly either the BCS3 or A21N from LGA there...more so as a shot at DL with flying the newest equipment there to take business away from DL in the NYC market. (Currently, New York to Texas on DL from LGA is primarily on the BCS1.) This would allow AA to better protect its home base of DFW and also its MIA and ORD hubs (could AA perhaps help B6 get another gate at ORD?), with AA realizing that B6 could deliver better short-haul economics...AA would be codesharing on some of these routes.

They will have to base some A220s in JFK/LGA if they want to bump up frequencies on some of these short haul routes and add new markets. A320 with 162 seat just don't have the same economics and too many seats.

Wingtips56 wrote:
When will B6 have a big enough fleet of A220s on property to mount a significant schedule with them?

No changes to their delivery schedule. They should have 16 by end of 2022. I'd think that's a good quantity.

BA744PHX wrote:
HNLSLCPDX wrote:
I think JetBlue needs to make an aggressive expansion into SLC. They should seriously consider adding SAN, AUS, TPA, LAS, ATL, SJD, PVR, and SFO. They already serve JFK, BOS, LAX (beginning October), MCO, and FLL. SLC could offer some connecting options and with the new terminal and growing economy of Salt Lake and the surrounding area there is potential to grow and build and capture a larger frequent flyer base.

I think JetBlue could manage DL’s push back and could make it work and potentially have SLC as a focus city. Definitely would help their presence out west.

Expansion for what reason? SLC is not a large O&D Market, not much to share with DL dominating. If B6 were to expand out West, they would have a better chance at LAS with a massive O&D.

read some rumour that they were looking at making LAS a focus city before COVID started. I think that's also a terrible idea. Just too much ULCC competition and they are too weak in west coast to make some of these large markets out of LAS work. I would like to see them add a couple of more flights to LAX and SFO. That could work.

There is a lot of stuff they can build up right now that will take all their resources. And when northeast and LAX is finished, there is still FLL and MCO. If I were them, I'd just keep MCO about the same size as pre-COID, and find another place without overwhelming big 4 presence to build. For example, RDU would be a good place to build up if DL takes it time add flights back. I could see them building a 35 to 40 flight station there if they are looking to gain a piece of a new growing market like that.

Nicknuzzii wrote:
Per the earnings call the plan is only to build EWR up to 60 flights a day.

They said 60 flight/day post recovery. There was no clarification of when they believe that is. My guess is that they will reach that size in EWR by second half of next year. And once they move into T-1, it will get a lot large. I'm still thinking a 100 flight station in 3 or 4 years. Especially with the AA partnership.

Dieuwer wrote:
JetBlue needs to consider dumping Barclays and get a real credit card issuer on board. Barclays' customer service is absolutely horrible. I was so furious, I closed my Plus card.

You can try Chase sapphire reserve. Best travel card out there. You can move miles to different airlines including JetBlue and United for redemption.
 
phllax
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Wed Jul 29, 2020 3:29 am

If were a betting man, and based on past actions out of JFK to the Caribbean such as GND and CUR, I would bet besides LIR and the normal Mexican resort destinations of PVR and SJD they would go to ACA, MZT and IXT. All of these were previously served from LA by multiple carriers, with AS Being the only one still serving the later two. Nobody hits ACA from LA anymore.
 
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KLMatSJC
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Wed Jul 29, 2020 9:24 am

phllax wrote:
If were a betting man, and based on past actions out of JFK to the Caribbean such as GND and CUR, I would bet besides LIR and the normal Mexican resort destinations of PVR and SJD they would go to ACA, MZT and IXT. All of these were previously served from LA by multiple carriers, with AS Being the only one still serving the later two. Nobody hits ACA from LA anymore.

I honestly doubt it. There's a reason none are served anymore.
A318/19/20/21/21N A332/3 A343/5 A388 B712 B722 B732/3/4/7/8/9/9ER B744/4M B752/3 B762ER/3/3ER/4ER B772/E/L/W B788 CRJ2/7/9 Q400 EMB-120 ERJ-135/140/145/145XR/175 DC-10-10 MD-82/83/88/90

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tphuang
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Wed Jul 29, 2020 11:55 am

JetBlue has quite a few project open. They described northeast partnership with AA, building EWR, building LAX and building FLL to 140 flight station. All these projects will certainly occupy their resources for a while. In fact, they are so occupied that no mention was made of MCO, even though the new south terminal is opening in a couple of years. Given there is some pullbacks from other carriers, I'm looking to see what other focus cities they could try.

Taking a look at the busiest airport in America and trying to find the busiest ones that are not already a JetBlue focus city, not dominated by any single airline and not a overly crowded leisure market.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_t ... ted_States
I got TPA, AUS and RDU. TPA doesn't make a lot of sense for them given their focus on Orlando near by.. Although I'm sure they are looking to add more flights there based on their recent actions. AUS and RDU are both growing cities with growing airport that have both strong legacy and WN presence along with some ULCC presence. BNA would've been another good airport but it has too much WN presence.

Taking a look at how they may attempt to build up either city, it becomes clear very quickly that RDU is a better choice. I will use Q3 2019 PDEW numbers to examine here.

First Austin. The top 10 markets are LA, NYC, SF, Chicago, DC, Denver, Boston, Las Vegas, Atlanta and Dallas. The striking part here is that only 3 of top 10 markets are jetBlue focus cities with Orlando and Miami being the 12th and 13th largest. It would be very hard for them to build up here without getting into bloodbath at SF, Chicago and DC. In fact, AUS needs perimeter exemption to be served from DCA, so JetBlue would have to restart IAD to serve there. Austin's top destinations are quite centrally and west coast focused. Which are not ideal for an east coast focused airline like JetBlue.

Now, taking a look at RDU. The top 10 markets are NYC, Boston, Chicago, DC, Miami, Denver, Atlanta, LA, SF, Orlando. And more importantly, NYC is far and away the largest market out of RDU. All 5 continental focus cities of JetBlue are in the top 10 list. They can also use DCA slots for RDU flights. There are also other leisure markets like LAS (13th largest), TPA (14th largest) and markets with strong JetBlue presence like BDL(27th), BUF(34th) that they can try. With Delta bringing back its focus cities very slowly, there is room here for JetBlue to expand. They've currently scheduled in for 4x JFK, 6x BOS and 2x FLL. Going forward (with AA partnership helping them out in NYC/BOS market), they can try 4x JFK, 7x BOS, 5x LGA, 3x EWR, 4x DCA, 2x FLL, 1x LAX, 2x MCO, 1x LAS, 1x SJU, 1x TPA, 1x PBI, 1x BDL, sub daily to BUF and Latin leisure destination. That gets them to around 35 flights a day and then they can think about adding tougher markets like ORD, DEN and SFO.

going through the list of busiest airport, I don't see any other one below RDU with similar connection to NYC/Boston and also similar growing profile. I think if Delta keeps RDU below 50 flights a day over the next few years, it's a station that JetBlue should look to turn into a focus city. Even if they don't go down that path, they could still get to a 20 to 25 flight station just by adding flights to NYC/Boston and launching LAX/MCO/SJU/TPA-RDU.

I also looked at Nashville, where the top 10 markets are NYC, LA, Boston, Chicago, DC, Dallas, Denver, Miami, Philly and SF. This would've been another market that made sense for them if Southwest didn't get so large there.
 
flyby519
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Wed Jul 29, 2020 12:35 pm

What would an RDU focus city bring to the network besides incremental North-South traffic along the east coast?
 
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STT757
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Wed Jul 29, 2020 12:52 pm

tphuang wrote:
JetBlue has quite a few project open. They described northeast partnership with AA, building EWR, building LAX and building FLL to 140 flight station. All these projects will certainly occupy their resources for a while. In fact, they are so occupied that no mention was made of MCO, even though the new south terminal is opening in a couple of years. Given there is some pullbacks from other carriers, I'm looking to see what other focus cities they could try.

Taking a look at the busiest airport in America and trying to find the busiest ones that are not already a JetBlue focus city, not dominated by any single airline and not a overly crowded leisure market.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_t ... ted_States
I got TPA, AUS and RDU. TPA doesn't make a lot of sense for them given their focus on Orlando near by.. Although I'm sure they are looking to add more flights there based on their recent actions. AUS and RDU are both growing cities with growing airport that have both strong legacy and WN presence along with some ULCC presence. BNA would've been another good airport but it has too much WN presence.

Taking a look at how they may attempt to build up either city, it becomes clear very quickly that RDU is a better choice. I will use Q3 2019 PDEW numbers to examine here.

First Austin. The top 10 markets are LA, NYC, SF, Chicago, DC, Denver, Boston, Las Vegas, Atlanta and Dallas. The striking part here is that only 3 of top 10 markets are jetBlue focus cities with Orlando and Miami being the 12th and 13th largest. It would be very hard for them to build up here without getting into bloodbath at SF, Chicago and DC. In fact, AUS needs perimeter exemption to be served from DCA, so JetBlue would have to restart IAD to serve there. Austin's top destinations are quite centrally and west coast focused. Which are not ideal for an east coast focused airline like JetBlue.

Now, taking a look at RDU. The top 10 markets are NYC, Boston, Chicago, DC, Miami, Denver, Atlanta, LA, SF, Orlando. And more importantly, NYC is far and away the largest market out of RDU. All 5 continental focus cities of JetBlue are in the top 10 list. They can also use DCA slots for RDU flights. There are also other leisure markets like LAS (13th largest), TPA (14th largest) and markets with strong JetBlue presence like BDL(27th), BUF(34th) that they can try. With Delta bringing back its focus cities very slowly, there is room here for JetBlue to expand. They've currently scheduled in for 4x JFK, 6x BOS and 2x FLL. Going forward (with AA partnership helping them out in NYC/BOS market), they can try 4x JFK, 7x BOS, 5x LGA, 3x EWR, 4x DCA, 2x FLL, 1x LAX, 2x MCO, 1x LAS, 1x SJU, 1x TPA, 1x PBI, 1x BDL, sub daily to BUF and Latin leisure destination. That gets them to around 35 flights a day and then they can think about adding tougher markets like ORD, DEN and SFO.

going through the list of busiest airport, I don't see any other one below RDU with similar connection to NYC/Boston and also similar growing profile. I think if Delta keeps RDU below 50 flights a day over the next few years, it's a station that JetBlue should look to turn into a focus city. Even if they don't go down that path, they could still get to a 20 to 25 flight station just by adding flights to NYC/Boston and launching LAX/MCO/SJU/TPA-RDU.

I also looked at Nashville, where the top 10 markets are NYC, LA, Boston, Chicago, DC, Dallas, Denver, Miami, Philly and SF. This would've been another market that made sense for them if Southwest didn't get so large there.


Austin, Nashville and Raleigh all probably have large amount AA frequent flyers. Something B6 could tap into if their partnership with AA grows.
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bomber996
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Wed Jul 29, 2020 2:46 pm

tphuang wrote:
Dieuwer wrote:
JetBlue needs to consider dumping Barclays and get a real credit card issuer on board. Barclays' customer service is absolutely horrible. I was so furious, I closed my Plus card.

You can try Chase sapphire reserve. Best travel card out there. You can move miles to different airlines including JetBlue and United for redemption.


It seems JetBlue partners with nearly everyone. Citi, Amex, Chase, and Barclays all have their points transfer. Barclays seems to be the only one without an annual fee, but I could be wrong. I'm on the Chase Sapphire Preferred paired with both Freedom cards and I love it. Point being, there are more options than just Barclays.

Peace :box:
"We've recently upped our standards, so up yours." - Federal Aviation Administration
 
Dieuwer
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Wed Jul 29, 2020 3:00 pm

Does anyone know when the contract with Barclays is up for renegotiation?
 
Brianpr3
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Thu Jul 30, 2020 6:16 am

I saw jbu return to serving meals in mint wonder when snacks will return and drinks service not the baggies
Brian
 
tphuang
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Thu Jul 30, 2020 12:41 pm

flyby519 wrote:
What would an RDU focus city bring to the network besides incremental North-South traffic along the east coast?


A lot of same reason why Delta started focus city there: a lot of population growth, highly educated population, tech sector, a lot of New York transplants and a lot of connection to Northeast/south Florida. Having a large operation there will help their performance in Northeast. It will also give them a bigger presence in mid-atlantic region where they are quite weak.

And even if they don't get a focus city there, they could still build up a medium sized station just by connecting it to all their existing focus cities. There is not that many cities with same level of connection to JetBlue's existing focus cities and have growth potential.

Growing in SFO would be nice, but that's a humongous undertaking on top of LAX. And who knows how many gates are available. My guess is they top out at about 35 to 40 flights a day by 2025.

Growing in DC would be nice if they can get more slots at DCA. But without a presence in IAD, that's constrained also.

They will probably try to grow MCO once they finish building out northeast and FLL, but it will be filled with ULCC competition

STT757 wrote:
Austin, Nashville and Raleigh all probably have large amount AA frequent flyers. Something B6 could tap into if their partnership with AA grows.


Sure, as AA exists JFK-AUS/BNA/RDU, JetBlue will be able to add more flight there. They can capture some of the AA ff that on BOS-AUS/BNA/RDU that have been connecting on AA so far.

They talk about entering new markets with AA partnership.

I keep looking at STL/IND/CMH and see a much easier path from JFK/BOS if they can use AA partnership to grab some of the point of sale on the other end where AA have some ff.
 
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STT757
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Thu Jul 30, 2020 1:05 pm

tphuang wrote:
flyby519 wrote:
What would an RDU focus city bring to the network besides incremental North-South traffic along the east coast?


A lot of same reason why Delta started focus city there: a lot of population growth, highly educated population, tech sector, a lot of New York transplants and a lot of connection to Northeast/south Florida. Having a large operation there will help their performance in Northeast. It will also give them a bigger presence in mid-atlantic region where they are quite weak.

And even if they don't get a focus city there, they could still build up a medium sized station just by connecting it to all their existing focus cities. There is not that many cities with same level of connection to JetBlue's existing focus cities and have growth potential.

Growing in SFO would be nice, but that's a humongous undertaking on top of LAX. And who knows how many gates are available. My guess is they top out at about 35 to 40 flights a day by 2025.

Growing in DC would be nice if they can get more slots at DCA. But without a presence in IAD, that's constrained also.

They will probably try to grow MCO once they finish building out northeast and FLL, but it will be filled with ULCC competition

STT757 wrote:
Austin, Nashville and Raleigh all probably have large amount AA frequent flyers. Something B6 could tap into if their partnership with AA grows.


Sure, as AA exists JFK-AUS/BNA/RDU, JetBlue will be able to add more flight there. They can capture some of the AA ff that on BOS-AUS/BNA/RDU that have been connecting on AA so far.

They talk about entering new markets with AA partnership.

I keep looking at STL/IND/CMH and see a much easier path from JFK/BOS if they can use AA partnership to grab some of the point of sale on the other end where AA have some ff.


I feel like for B6 to make many Midwest markets work they need to fly them from LGA, not Kennedy. Move AA slots currently used to operate smaller regional jets to B6 with mainline aircraft.
Eastern Air lines flt # 701, EWR-MCO Boeing 757
 
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ChrisNH38
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Thu Jul 30, 2020 1:10 pm

I got an e-mail saying my BOS-SAV flight switched from an E-190 to A320. Is this the first time the route has used the A320?
https://my.flightradar24.com/ChrisNH
 
Iggy500
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Thu Jul 30, 2020 1:48 pm

ChrisNH38 wrote:
I got an e-mail saying my BOS-SAV flight switched from an E-190 to A320. Is this the first time the route has used the A320?


B6's BOS-SAV route has used the A320 for a while now.

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